Categories
Labour’s Hiraeth – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s Hiraeth – politicalbetting.com
This draft thread header was written in December 2019, but due to pressure of work I never had a chance to send it in. Alterations are shown in italics.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
And, for that matter, "Doethur"?
Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.
And it's not a name, it's a title. 'Y Doethur' = 'The Doctor'.
Thank you Mr Eagles, it looks a nice job.
Old English Wielisc, Wylisc (West Saxon), Welisc, Wælisc (Anglian and Kentish): FOREIGN
https://www.etymonline.com/word/welsh
Welsh explicltly means FOREIGN
So in summary, better than Ed M and Corbyn - but not good enough
WHO KNEW?
No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.
Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1378696444820008960
On the economy, buried in the ONS release was the international comparison based on an actually comparable number which showed that the UK economic contraction in 2020 was actually 4.8% rather than the headline report of 9.8% that gets all of the airtime. The 4.8% figure is actually much closer to what's happening on the ground, especially the private sector which has a lot less scarring than people currently realise.
Our bounceback is going to surprise a lot of the commenters in 2021 and 2022. I also expect the bitterness from the continent as it happens.
One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.
There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election
Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."
@isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.
The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"
Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.
This is one where I'm not sure leadership ratings are going to play a big part. Unless Johnson's personality gives RT an undeserved lift.
(BTW, I answered your question about Lampeter on the last thread,and thank you for the nice remarks.)
Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.
It really will be at least 3 years before any kind of meaningful comparison can be made on relative performance. Anyone who tries to claim otherwise will simply show their agenda.
But I think it's probably correct that the EU's approach would have remained flawed because they were looking at the wrong thing, because ultimately they're geared to negotiating trade deals not dealing with crises.
That % of UK population is wrong.
Without his persistence, you wouldn't have had the chance to read it.
Wales is now playing catch-up
Ladbrokes offers:-
LADIES Oxford 5/1 Cambridge 1/8
CHAPS Oxford 8/13 Cambridge 6/5 Dead-heat 250/1
Bet365 offers:-
LADIES Oxford 11/2 Cambridge 1/10 Dead-heat 100/1
CHAPS Oxford 4/7 Cambridge 5/4 Dead-heat 100/1
Other bookmakers and winning margins are available. Clearly the Oxford girls aren't up to much this year, and the Cambridge men are up against it.
The boat race is barely noticed these days but when I were a lad, growing up where no-one at all had been to university, everyone had a preference. Jumpers for goalposts...
We have come a long way when 350k jabs in one day seems a tad disappointing.
Today is 97,331 & 176,240 for a total of 31,523,013 & 5,381,745 1st/2nd
I make that 47.19% of the UK population
It's probably fortunate a Brexiteer wasn't the one facing that instruction.
And of course many Brexiteers do believe that, which is why our trade strategy was to try and cut a deal with Germany and not Brussels, who actually handle it.
I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both
But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020
Average approval
Keir Starmer ... 5.35
Adam Price ... 4.34
Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
Boris Johnson ... 4.014
Ed Davey ... 3.7
Jane Dodds ... 3.617
Mark Reckless .... 2.62
Neil Hamilton .. .2.2
Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.
I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.
Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
LAB's decline is because of their voter base are fed up with non-delivery. Same as Scotland, same as 'red wall', same as small town England.
LAB's only base left is their client welfare-recipients base and metropolitan 'lefties' in London and other large English cities.
LAB no longer relevant to ordinary British people.
BUT - they will still hold Hartlepool!
You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
Good afternoon, eveyrone.
You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.
My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1314979190555340800
What do you think like/dislike means?
I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.
Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
But wow, a proper, smart haircut. After four months of looking like a hobo on meth. YES
Sometimes wikipedia doesn't have all the information.
I remember once Wikipedia missed a poll off and one PBer got excited and accused OGH of posting misleading polling figures not realising there was a poll in between which meant Mike was actually right.
Britain on brink of ‘deus ex machina’ moment as eurozone sinks into new Covid misery
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/30/britains-deus-ex-machina-moment-european-economy-sinks-renewed/
If businesses think they will help encourage cautious customers - eg theatres - they should be allowed to impose them
My strategy is eminently sensible and will benefit the economy. I know I am extremely important and influential, but it's not actually my fault if the government makes a silly mistake
https://twitter.com/RichardClegg522/status/1378724956918407168?s=20
But it seems that having written it off as the 'eccentric Brits' doing their own thing, that even seeing deaths down 97% and us rapidly approaching herd immunity, nowhere seems to want to admit we got this right and change their own strategies.
The USA perhaps is far enough down its own path it mightn't make sense to change, but that's not the case in the EU and elsewhere.
Has anywhere else yet adopted the first dose strategy besides the UK?
Actually, I think it goes back further than that, to the Amerithrax letters and the massive increase in US DoD spending on biosecurity measures, which inter alia involved massive investments through BARDA into repatriating vaccine production onto US soil using new vaccine technologies and approaches, and legislative measures to reduce vaccine producers' liability (which had been the biggest driver of off-shoring of US capacity and the biggest brake on investment in vaccine technology.
https://twitter.com/uk_vaccine/status/1378726506747326468?s=20
With the supply of vaccines increasing its surely easier not harder, to ensure you get to herd immunity with a 12 week first dose strategy. If Europe switched now to a first dose strategy, plus other countries elsewhere, then within three months they could potentially be reaching herd immunity. Just as we have within three months of switching strategy.