Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Labour’s Hiraeth – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 4 in General
imageLabour’s Hiraeth – politicalbetting.com

This draft thread header was written in December 2019, but due to pressure of work I never had a chance to send it in. Alterations are shown in italics. 

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Thank you, very informative piece.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,527
    What next after flagshagging? Crosspegging?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    Nice essay tho. Labour are in trouble everywhere, except with three students currently lockdowning in Walthamstow, and they're not sure about Starmer
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Leon said:

    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.

    The Welsh aren't foreign.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Leon said:

    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.

    Which one of your names did you have in mind, Leon? :smile:

    And it's not a name, it's a title. 'Y Doethur' = 'The Doctor'.

    Thank you Mr Eagles, it looks a nice job.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040

    Leon said:

    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.

    The Welsh aren't foreign.
    You do know what the word "Welsh" actually means?

    Old English Wielisc, Wylisc (West Saxon), Welisc, Wælisc (Anglian and Kentish): FOREIGN

    https://www.etymonline.com/word/welsh

    Welsh explicltly means FOREIGN
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Anyhoo back to the Easter BBQ and Easter egg hunt in this glorious weather.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Don't politicians regularly post messages wishing people happy Diwali/Eid/Easter?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Dura_Ace said:

    What next after flagshagging? Crosspegging?
    I thought even the Tories had stopped doing that to poor people.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Very interesting, I have a few Welsh friends from my uni days who echo Labour losing their grip in Wales too. I guess the difference is that in Wales there isn't a serious independence movement and it's unlikely there ever will be so the Tories get much more of a look in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 4

    Don't politicians regularly post messages wishing people happy Diwali/Eid/Easter?

    Not with their party logos on pictures as a general rule.
  • https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1378680859025375235

    So in summary, better than Ed M and Corbyn - but not good enough
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    MaxPB said:

    Very interesting, I have a few Welsh friends from my uni days who echo Labour losing their grip in Wales too. I guess the difference is that in Wales there isn't a serious independence movement and it's unlikely there ever will be so the Tories get much more of a look in.

    Wales is quite a conservative country as well. It's just that their conservatism, up to now, has been expressed by voting Labour to keep things the same as they always have been.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Well everyone who is wise enough to read PB for a start.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,331
    Whats the scores on the doors vaccines wise today?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,331
    edited April 4
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I don't think even the biggest vaccine optimist would have thought gen 1 vaccines would be 90% effective. 50% was deemed an acceptable target.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    Leon said:

    In the next month we will surely, please God, see a day with zero deaths across the UK. That will be quite a moment

    The big question is whether there will also be an economic dividend from the UK's vaccination success.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1378696444820008960
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    And then use that genius to cure a whole series of other illnesses and conditions.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    edited April 4

    Leon said:

    In the next month we will surely, please God, see a day with zero deaths across the UK. That will be quite a moment

    The big question is whether there will also be an economic dividend from the UK's vaccination success.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1378696444820008960
    Not if we persist with these idiotic vaccine passports and keep part of the economy closed or running at minimum capacity until they are introduced.

    On the economy, buried in the ONS release was the international comparison based on an actually comparable number which showed that the UK economic contraction in 2020 was actually 4.8% rather than the headline report of 9.8% that gets all of the airtime. The 4.8% figure is actually much closer to what's happening on the ground, especially the private sector which has a lot less scarring than people currently realise.

    Our bounceback is going to surprise a lot of the commenters in 2021 and 2022. I also expect the bitterness from the continent as it happens.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605
    edited April 4
    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 4

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    Which would all be valid - and I don't rate him - if it wasn't for the facts his opponents are worse.

    This is one where I'm not sure leadership ratings are going to play a big part. Unless Johnson's personality gives RT an undeserved lift.

    (BTW, I answered your question about Lampeter on the last thread,and thank you for the nice remarks.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    Can we all agree that one issue is our political leaders are all a bit shit?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,331
    edited April 4
    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1378696744565927937?s=19

    Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    In the next month we will surely, please God, see a day with zero deaths across the UK. That will be quite a moment

    The big question is whether there will also be an economic dividend from the UK's vaccination success.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1378696444820008960
    Not if we persist with these idiotic vaccine passports and keep part of the economy closed or running at minimum capacity until they are introduced.

    On the economy, buried in the ONS release was the international comparison based on an actually comparable number which showed that the UK economic contraction in 2020 was actually 4.8% rather than the headline report of 9.8% that gets all of the airtime. The 4.8% figure is actually much closer to what's happening on the ground, especially the private sector which has a lot less scarring than people currently realise.

    Our bounceback is going to surprise a lot of the commenters in 2021 and 2022. I also expect the bitterness from the continent as it happens.
    I would be genuinely astonished if we do not outgrow the EU by a considerable margin this year. We should be getting at least a quarter's start. Conversely, the EU really should do better than us next year as they will still be in catch up mode.

    It really will be at least 3 years before any kind of meaningful comparison can be made on relative performance. Anyone who tries to claim otherwise will simply show their agenda.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    ydoethur said:

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    Can we all agree that one issue is our political leaders are all a bit shit?
    Yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,331
    edited April 4
    So its a lovely bank holiday weekend, sun is out, sitting in the garden as 90% of people will be doing, goes on twitter to try and find the vaccination numbers....and finds it is all arguing about Owen Jones wanting kids and trans rights....and the twatterati wonder why their bubble doesn't reflect the majority concerns.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1378696744565927937?s=19

    Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.

    We weren't members of the EU by then.

    But I think it's probably correct that the EU's approach would have remained flawed because they were looking at the wrong thing, because ultimately they're geared to negotiating trade deals not dealing with crises.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,103
    But the traffic in Wales has not been one way for Labour - even in recent years. Labour failed to win Cardiff North in 2015 and lost Gower. Both were gained in 2017 - and retained in 2019. Whilst the Tories narrowly picked up Delyn in 2019, their majority was smaller than enjoyed there by Keith Raffan as far back as 1987. Moreover, on the basis of national GB current polling, Labour is well placed to reverse its 2019 losses - with Aberconway also a possible gain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174

    Whats the scores on the doors vaccines wise today?

    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1378709350613712898
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,066

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1378696744565927937?s=19

    Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.

    https://twitter.com/Jackstarbright/status/1378315301872353282?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,331
    edited April 4
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    edited April 4
    ydoethur said:

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    Can we all agree that one issue is our political leaders are all a bit shit?
    Well, except the blessed Nicola of course. You'd never catch her changing the rules to persecute a rival and then lying about it, conspiring to bring evidence together to have that rival prosecuted, telling untruths to Parliament, misplacing £600k of party funds that have supposedly been ringfenced, signing guarantees for £500m of taxpayers money to a guy now accused of fabricating invoices,.. actually "yes" is the simpler answer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    Thanks for the header :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 4
    RobD said:

    Thanks for the header :)

    I think the person who deserves the most thanks is Mr Eagles, to be honest, who was kind enough to both ask for it and then continuing to ask for it and find alternative ways to receive it when my email gave up on me.

    Without his persistence, you wouldn't have had the chance to read it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.

    Which one of your names did you have in mind, Leon? :smile:

    And it's not a name, it's a title. 'Y Doethur' = 'The Doctor'.

    Thank you Mr Eagles, it looks a nice job.
    TIL, I always wondered what it meant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    The potency of coal and steel as a totem for Labour has all but gone. It has retained it longest in Wales whilst places like Kent, Warwickshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Scunthorpe and even the NE have moved solidly to the blues.

    Wales is now playing catch-up
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.

    Which one of your names did you have in mind, Leon? :smile:

    And it's not a name, it's a title. 'Y Doethur' = 'The Doctor'.

    Thank you Mr Eagles, it looks a nice job.
    TIL, I always wondered what it meant.
    I always thought it was something to do with Arthur, whom the Welsh try to pinch from the Scots. Live and learn.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    Weekend, Easter, April slowdown? All 3?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    What kind of name is "Y"?


    And, for that matter, "Doethur"?

    Ludicrous, I propose that from now on all stupid, smelly, rubbish, foreign sounding names and words are banned from PB. Including mine, I suppose.

    Which one of your names did you have in mind, Leon? :smile:

    And it's not a name, it's a title. 'Y Doethur' = 'The Doctor'.

    Thank you Mr Eagles, it looks a nice job.
    TIL, I always wondered what it meant.
    I always thought it was something to do with Arthur, whom the Welsh try to pinch from the Scots. Live and learn.
    The Welsh name for Arthur is 'Idris' although there is a Welsh word 'arth' meaning 'bear.'
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,681
    OT Boat Race 2021: women's race starts at 3.50pm and men's at 4.50pm on BBC One.

    Ladbrokes offers:-
    LADIES Oxford 5/1 Cambridge 1/8
    CHAPS Oxford 8/13 Cambridge 6/5 Dead-heat 250/1

    Bet365 offers:-
    LADIES Oxford 11/2 Cambridge 1/10 Dead-heat 100/1
    CHAPS Oxford 4/7 Cambridge 5/4 Dead-heat 100/1

    Other bookmakers and winning margins are available. Clearly the Oxford girls aren't up to much this year, and the Cambridge men are up against it.

    The boat race is barely noticed these days but when I were a lad, growing up where no-one at all had been to university, everyone had a preference. Jumpers for goalposts...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    I think that they have taken the whole population as opposed to the adult population which is normally used.

    We have come a long way when 350k jabs in one day seems a tad disappointing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    Total population surely? Including under 18s....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    Those are yesterday's stats

    Today is 97,331 & 176,240 for a total of 31,523,013 & 5,381,745 1st/2nd


    I make that 47.19% of the UK population
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    Yeah, but they've made us out to be one fat, ugly bulldog
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    Gadfly said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1378696744565927937?s=19

    Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.

    https://twitter.com/Jackstarbright/status/1378315301872353282?s=20
    "Sit in the corner signing checks, UK - and don't say a word."

    It's probably fortunate a Brexiteer wasn't the one facing that instruction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    Yeah, but they've made us out to be one fat, ugly bulldog
    And do you notice we've got one vaccine to their two?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 6,681

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1378696744565927937?s=19

    Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.

    Given the EU vaccination strategy was to buy from the German maker and the French maker, whether Britain would have made a difference surely depends on whether you believe the EU is a Franco-German stitch up from start to finish.

    And of course many Brexiteers do believe that, which is why our trade strategy was to try and cut a deal with Germany and not Brussels, who actually handle it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    DavidL said:

    I think that they have taken the whole population as opposed to the adult population which is normally used.

    We have come a long way when 350k jabs in one day seems a tad disappointing.
    107k first doses IS disappointing. Let's hope J&J deliver for the one-jab strategy for the rest who are currently in abeyance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    Gadfly said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1378696744565927937?s=19

    Except the head of the vaccine task force, a remainer, said no the EU made it clear we wouldn't.

    https://twitter.com/Jackstarbright/status/1378315301872353282?s=20
    "Sit in the corner signing checks, UK - and don't say a word."

    It's probably fortunate a Brexiteer wasn't the one facing that instruction.
    That was genuinely LOL.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    Yeah, but they've made us out to be one fat, ugly bulldog
    And do you notice we've got one vaccine to their two?
    To be fair, it should be 1:4 now, with J&J and Novavax. Or 1:6 or 1:7 if you look at absolute vaccination rates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 687
    edited April 4
    Excellent article @ydoethur, thanks

    LAB's decline is because of their voter base are fed up with non-delivery. Same as Scotland, same as 'red wall', same as small town England.

    LAB's only base left is their client welfare-recipients base and metropolitan 'lefties' in London and other large English cities.

    LAB no longer relevant to ordinary British people.

    BUT - they will still hold Hartlepool! :lol:
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    edited April 4
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174

    DavidL said:

    I think that they have taken the whole population as opposed to the adult population which is normally used.

    We have come a long way when 350k jabs in one day seems a tad disappointing.
    107k first doses IS disappointing. Let's hope J&J deliver for the one-jab strategy for the rest who are currently in abeyance.
    It's not correct - reporting yesterday was 124,415; today 97,331 and the day before 153,823.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790
    ydoethur said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    Yeah, but they've made us out to be one fat, ugly bulldog
    And do you notice we've got one vaccine to their two?
    I took that to represent a single-dose strategy vs a both doses strategy.

    Good afternoon, eveyrone.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 4

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    Could have gone quicker but for
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1314979190555340800
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    Pulpstar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    Could have gone quicker but for
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1314979190555340800
    Equally we’ve seen with AZN what can happen if you rush these things out without completing trials properly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,056

    OT Boat Race 2021: women's race starts at 3.50pm and men's at 4.50pm on BBC One.

    Ladbrokes offers:-
    LADIES Oxford 5/1 Cambridge 1/8
    CHAPS Oxford 8/13 Cambridge 6/5 Dead-heat 250/1

    Bet365 offers:-
    LADIES Oxford 11/2 Cambridge 1/10 Dead-heat 100/1
    CHAPS Oxford 4/7 Cambridge 5/4 Dead-heat 100/1

    Other bookmakers and winning margins are available. Clearly the Oxford girls aren't up to much this year, and the Cambridge men are up against it.

    The boat race is barely noticed these days but when I were a lad, growing up where no-one at all had been to university, everyone had a preference. Jumpers for goalposts...

    They just showed a proposed route for 2022 if Hammersmith Bridge is still too dangerous to go under. They had it starting at the Houses of Parliament and finishing at Putney (5.4 miles v the 4 miles they normally do from Putney to Mortlake).
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    I am involved in iGEM (the International Genetically-Engineered Machine competition), so for the last 12 years I have had a front row seat on how synthetic biology is evolving across every human endeavour (including art). It is mind-blowing, both what can be achieved and how fast the field is moving.
    AIUI a lot of groundwork WRT coronaviruses had been done in response to SARS and MERS also.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
    As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.

    Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    edited April 4

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
    As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.

    Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
    Never cite Wikipedia. But you can do worse than going to Wikipedia and citing its own citations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.

    I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.

    I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
    If you want cheering up, read immunology Twitter, steer clear of epidemiology and public health Twitter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    Can I just recommend the therapeutic effects of an illegal but professional haircut? I did it yesterday. It was all very glamorous, sneaking in and out of a Turkish barbershop, with the blinds down, I felt like I was going undercover for the SAS

    But wow, a proper, smart haircut. After four months of looking like a hobo on meth. YES
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    DougSeal said:

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
    As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.

    Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
    Never cite Wikipedia. But you can do worse than going to Wikipedia and citing its own citations.
    Doesn't always work.

    Sometimes wikipedia doesn't have all the information.

    I remember once Wikipedia missed a poll off and one PBer got excited and accused OGH of posting misleading polling figures not realising there was a poll in between which meant Mike was actually right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Right BBQ and boat race time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    Yeah, but they've made us out to be one fat, ugly bulldog
    Dilyn has put on weight I see.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922

    DougSeal said:

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
    As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.

    Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
    Never cite Wikipedia. But you can do worse than going to Wikipedia and citing its own citations.
    Doesn't always work.

    Sometimes wikipedia doesn't have all the information.

    I remember once Wikipedia missed a poll off and one PBer got excited and accused OGH of posting misleading polling figures not realising there was a poll in between which meant Mike was actually right.
    One should avoid it where possible but it can be a gateway to more authoritative sources.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,100
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    In the next month we will surely, please God, see a day with zero deaths across the UK. That will be quite a moment

    The big question is whether there will also be an economic dividend from the UK's vaccination success.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1378696444820008960
    Not if we persist with these idiotic vaccine passports and keep part of the economy closed or running at minimum capacity until they are introduced.

    On the economy, buried in the ONS release was the international comparison based on an actually comparable number which showed that the UK economic contraction in 2020 was actually 4.8% rather than the headline report of 9.8% that gets all of the airtime. The 4.8% figure is actually much closer to what's happening on the ground, especially the private sector which has a lot less scarring than people currently realise.

    Our bounceback is going to surprise a lot of the commenters in 2021 and 2022. I also expect the bitterness from the continent as it happens.

    Britain on brink of ‘deus ex machina’ moment as eurozone sinks into new Covid misery

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/03/30/britains-deus-ex-machina-moment-european-economy-sinks-renewed/
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    DougSeal said:

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
    As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.

    Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
    Never cite Wikipedia. But you can do worse than going to Wikipedia and citing its own citations.
    I use Wikipedia a lot to find out where to start reading.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.

    I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
    These are the same people saying the vaccine passports are a necessity as well. They are all extremely and unnecessarily pessimistic about this. They live for the worst case scenario and rubes such as yourself who buy it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    TimT said:

    DougSeal said:

    Wonderful, YDoethur.

    One thing to be mulled over in the betting is the character of Mark Drakeford himself.

    There was a surge in his popularity last summer, when he was seen as keeping Wales safe (see polling 22-31 May 2020).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election

    Since then, he has fallen. Now, I wonder if his dreary cautiousness is acting as a repellent, especially to younger voters. He always seems to be saying, "We're going to be very careful in Wales."

    @isam describes Starmer as a fun sponge, but truly it applies to Mark Drakeford. He seems to suck all vitality and joy out of life. My guess is that Drakeford is now a big drag on the Labour vote.

    The party-goers outside the Senedd chanted, "Drakeford's shut the pubs, let's go round to his place for drinks"

    Somehow, Boris' ebullience means he gets credit for bringing the lockdown to an end, whereas Mark Drakeford's eeyore-like demeanour means he ends up getting the blame for shutting the pubs.

    The reality, Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson.
    It is a good thing that wiki has the data & we don't have to rely on your Cantab brain:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Senedd_election#2020

    Average approval

    Keir Starmer ... 5.35
    Adam Price ... 4.34
    Mark Drakeford ... 4.018
    Boris Johnson ... 4.014
    Ed Davey ... 3.7
    Jane Dodds ... 3.617
    Mark Reckless .... 2.62
    Neil Hamilton .. .2.2

    Notice Starmer has significantly higher approval ratings than Drakeford in Wales, corroborating my suggestion that Doomford may be acting as a drag on the Labour vote.

    I am not quite sure why Drakeford and Johnson's approval is given to 4 significant figures, but they are pretty much equal given the accuracy of the data. Your statement that "Drakeford has much better leader ratings in Wales than Boris Johnson" is clearly incorrect.

    Most of the data predates the vaccine bounce as well.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375110941994541056
    And how do you deal with statistical fluctuations/systematic error in a single poll?

    You look at all the polling. As the wiki page does.
    I do look at more than one poll.

    You were wrong, I specifically said leader ratings, you cited the like/dislike figures which are entirely different.

    My figures are from a regular series of polls about Wales, this isn't a one off, Drakeford led Johnson in the previous poll when the leadership question was asked.
    The wiki page is entitled "Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd elections"

    What do you think like/dislike means?

    I know you had the prettiest romance with David Cameron, but the rest of us are not going on a swooning date with our political leaders.

    Like/dislike means like their leadership/dislike their leadership.
    As anyone with a brain knows Wikipedia is not the ultimate authority on facts. Somebody at my work who cites Wikipedia gets laughed at.

    Leader ratings are a much better ratings, as Sir Bob Worcester pointed out for most of Margaret Thatcher's premiership she was heavily and widely disliked, but when you looked at her leader ratings it was clear she was going to win in 1983 and 1987, comfortably.
    Never cite Wikipedia. But you can do worse than going to Wikipedia and citing its own citations.
    I use Wikipedia a lot to find out where to start reading.
    I do as well. I don’t do legal research on there but occasionally there are links to background explainers that can help explain some of the more difficult concepts to clients in layman’s terms.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.

    I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
    These are the same people saying the vaccine passports are a necessity as well. They are all extremely and unnecessarily pessimistic about this. They live for the worst case scenario and rubes such as yourself who buy it.
    I've said vaxports - other than for international travel - should be voluntary, sector by sector, firm by firm. I do not agree with making them compulsory within the UK

    If businesses think they will help encourage cautious customers - eg theatres - they should be allowed to impose them

    My strategy is eminently sensible and will benefit the economy. I know I am extremely important and influential, but it's not actually my fault if the government makes a silly mistake
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,056
    My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    This is a huge drop in daily vaccine numbers. Easter? Or some more serious problem?

    https://twitter.com/RichardClegg522/status/1378724956918407168?s=20
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    tlg86 said:

    My God, Cambrdigeshire is flat and utterly boring.

    And yet, just cross over into neighbouring Suffolk and the countryside is glorious
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,720
    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    When the UK made its decision to switch to a first dose strategy I thought it was a brave and wise decision that other countries would see succeeds and follow us in doing.

    But it seems that having written it off as the 'eccentric Brits' doing their own thing, that even seeing deaths down 97% and us rapidly approaching herd immunity, nowhere seems to want to admit we got this right and change their own strategies.

    The USA perhaps is far enough down its own path it mightn't make sense to change, but that's not the case in the EU and elsewhere.

    Has anywhere else yet adopted the first dose strategy besides the UK?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    DougSeal said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    I am involved in iGEM (the International Genetically-Engineered Machine competition), so for the last 12 years I have had a front row seat on how synthetic biology is evolving across every human endeavour (including art). It is mind-blowing, both what can be achieved and how fast the field is moving.
    AIUI a lot of groundwork WRT coronaviruses had been done in response to SARS and MERS also.

    Actually, I think it goes back further than that, to the Amerithrax letters and the massive increase in US DoD spending on biosecurity measures, which inter alia involved massive investments through BARDA into repatriating vaccine production onto US soil using new vaccine technologies and approaches, and legislative measures to reduce vaccine producers' liability (which had been the biggest driver of off-shoring of US capacity and the biggest brake on investment in vaccine technology.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    Leon said:

    This is a huge drop in daily vaccine numbers. Easter? Or some more serious problem?

    https://twitter.com/RichardClegg522/status/1378724956918407168?s=20

    Siri - what is a binary question?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,720
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The UK's death toll, yesterday - 10 - put us down at 58th on Worldometer. An incredible drop

    Vaccines and lockdowns work.

    WHO KNEW?
    Nobody.

    No one *knew* for sure that vaccines would be invented - many said it was impossible - and we couldn't be certain how well they would work.

    Wonderfully, fantastically, gloriously they have been invented, and manufactured, at mind-boggling speed, and they work damn well. This is a near miracle. We should note it regularly.
    I think you are wrong on this. The advances in genomics, proteomics and synthetic biology are such that people knew, as well as anything in science can be known, that a global effort the size launched by the pharma industry and a couple of governments would produce at least one good vaccine and probably more. The speed, number of successes and effectiveness of most of the efforts is stunning, though.
    Hmm. I remember talking to some expert scientists - biologists, academics, epidemiologists - and they were very pessimistic about a quick vaccine. Some said ‘never’. And all were unsure of their efficacy against a still-puzzling enemy

    I am sure some people placed at a particular nexus - like you? - had a more positive hunch. I also remember Charles, who has expertise here, being encouragingly optimistic and bullish. He was right, and bravo to you both

    But for the rest of us anxious laymen, confronted with different yet authoritative opinions, we did not and could not know
    The virus was sequenced on 10 January 2020. A vaccine that is being pumped into American arms, and soon ours, was invented by Moderna on 15 January 2020. So Charles was right to be opitimistic. I’m not sure what date the lamented Eadric started blowing his horn in alarm but I think it was after 15 January, by which time the cavalry was already saddling up. Throughout this the immunologists I have been reading have been far more optimistic than the epidemiologists.

    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1332771238771630080
    And yet, other experts did speak differently. eg I talked to one lady who is - let us say - very high in Public Health England. She told me in early 2020 that we would probably get vaccines but they would take 2-3 years at best, possibly a lot longer. And she was not completely confident they would work that well.

    I haven't spoken to her since but getting several excellent vaccines from inception to distribution and into arms, in less than a year, must utterly amaze her. Certainly amazes me
    These are the same people saying the vaccine passports are a necessity as well. They are all extremely and unnecessarily pessimistic about this. They live for the worst case scenario and rubes such as yourself who buy it.
    I've said vaxports - other than for international travel - should be voluntary, sector by sector, firm by firm. I do not agree with making them compulsory within the UK

    If businesses think they will help encourage cautious customers - eg theatres - they should be allowed to impose them

    My strategy is eminently sensible and will benefit the economy. I know I am extremely important and influential, but it's not actually my fault if the government makes a silly mistake
    Sensible free market solution.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790

    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    When the UK made its decision to switch to a first dose strategy I thought it was a brave and wise decision that other countries would see succeeds and follow us in doing.

    But it seems that having written it off as the 'eccentric Brits' doing their own thing, that even seeing deaths down 97% and us rapidly approaching herd immunity, nowhere seems to want to admit we got this right and change their own strategies.

    The USA perhaps is far enough down its own path it mightn't make sense to change, but that's not the case in the EU and elsewhere.

    Has anywhere else yet adopted the first dose strategy besides the UK?
    With the supply of vaccines increasing, maybe it's now no longer necessary.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,040
    edited April 4
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    This is a huge drop in daily vaccine numbers. Easter? Or some more serious problem?

    https://twitter.com/RichardClegg522/status/1378724956918407168?s=20

    Siri - what is a binary question?
    The vax and Covid stats today are all over the place and riddled with confusion


    https://twitter.com/uk_vaccine/status/1378726506747326468?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,720
    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    Americans actually praising UK (not the NYT obvs)

    https://twitter.com/MartyMakary/status/1378461383772225536?s=20

    When the UK made its decision to switch to a first dose strategy I thought it was a brave and wise decision that other countries would see succeeds and follow us in doing.

    But it seems that having written it off as the 'eccentric Brits' doing their own thing, that even seeing deaths down 97% and us rapidly approaching herd immunity, nowhere seems to want to admit we got this right and change their own strategies.

    The USA perhaps is far enough down its own path it mightn't make sense to change, but that's not the case in the EU and elsewhere.

    Has anywhere else yet adopted the first dose strategy besides the UK?
    With the supply of vaccines increasing, maybe it's now no longer necessary.
    I disagree completely. There are thousands a day dying across Europe at the very least and many nations going back into lockdown.

    With the supply of vaccines increasing its surely easier not harder, to ensure you get to herd immunity with a 12 week first dose strategy. If Europe switched now to a first dose strategy, plus other countries elsewhere, then within three months they could potentially be reaching herd immunity. Just as we have within three months of switching strategy.
Sign In or Register to comment.