Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
For a century in Wales Labour have overperformed and under delivered, from Town Councils to the Senedd. Everywhere I go there is disaffection for Labour, and remarkably a great love for a posh Etonian Conservative. I am not convinced that the Welsh love the Conservative Party but they like to see a grafter in a hi-viz coat, so they adore Boris Johnson.
In the days of Jim Griffiths and Denzil Davies, the Labour vote in Llanelli could be weighed rather than counted. A donkey in a red rosette could have won, and in Denzil's day it did. Hell will have frozen over when Llanelli return a Tory. It is cold in Wales today.
I know Llanelli, a little. If Labour can't even hold territory like that then it is finished as a majority party under the current system: I don't see it making enough progress outside of London to reverse the electoral map and start winning large numbers of seats from the Tories in Southern England.
Most likely Labour will have to rely on reducing the Tories to largest single party in a Hung Parliament and ramming through PR at the head of a rainbow coalition. If Scotland falls off before that happens then they may never get the chance.
That's what we were saying in the late 80s about Labour, and the Conservatives in the 2000s. Governments lose election. Quite who this Government lose to is debateable, most likely Labour, but it could be a Tommy Robinson vehicle. At some point they will nonetheless lose.
It's probably safe to assume that the Conservatives will end up losing at some point - it's the nature of the defeat and how long it'll take to happen that's up for debate, and that's possible more uncertain than it has ever been. Nobody was talking about the potential for the dissolution of the country itself in the 1980s or 2000s for starters...
I confidently predict that there’ll come a time when the Conservatives will lose power, and PB will be full of analysis and commentary that a party that only stuck up for the interests of economically inactive pensioners is surely destined never to achieve power again.
I only hope I live to see it.
If you're waiting for a Government that doesn't prioritise the needs and wishes of pensioners then you're likely to be waiting for a very long time. Allowing for eligibility to vote and propensity to turn out, the over 65s already constitute about a third of the active electorate and the over 55s an entire half.
In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.
Demographic change should result in these proportions increasing over the next few decades.
The gradual inversion of the population pyramid operates entirely in favour of the Right. If Labour (or a successor party) cannot discover the means to appeal to older voters then it is sunk.
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
40% of 18-26 year olds had antibodies according to the last PHE survey. I’m guessing kids won’t be far behind.
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
Either way I think the Commission is making the mistake of promising things outside its control. The problem of antivax sentiment won’t be apparent initially while demand outstrips supply, but will be a big issue when they face pressure to open up with lots of unvaccinated people floating around.
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
'Herd immunity' is a poor term in many ways. It just means that it's wildly unlikely that all of the herd will die.
The UK’s challenging vaccine target, 32m first doses by April 15, will be met next week. A week early
Impressive
It may already have been met but we're in the middle of Easter reporting delays. For example my brother in law (34) got his invite for a first dose, he has no pre-existing conditions and isn't a key worker or carer or anything like that.
I contacted my GP surgery that I've registered with an I was told that my age group will be contacted "within two weeks".
34?! The postcode lottery is becoming more and more pronounced it would seem.
Yeah he's very lucky, but at the same time I think the government is quietly opening up under 50s as it did with the other age groups and in a few weeks will publicly announce it for 40+ and 30+. Fingers crossed the Moderna deliveries are as expected and Novavax commences in the next few weeks.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
The section on boundaries has an error I'm afraid. In the abandoned review, which would have cut the total seats to 600, Wales would have got 28 in total. In the current review, Wales will get 32 seats. The entitlements are as follows:
Your other figures are interesting - do you have a source? It’s not ridiculously far from what I was expecting but I haven’t seen those numbers before.
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
40% of 18-26 year olds had antibodies according to the last PHE survey. I’m guessing kids won’t be far behind.
It'll require the schools to start on a vax program but world leading infections + vaccination takeup probably will get us to herd immunity tbh.
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
I still think there is an element of nudging going on here.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
I agree with you but one should not forget the historic tendency to try to forget pandemics ever happened. That’s why many want to. We should encourage this chap to post here -
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
Some people don't like change, especially when foisted on society by a strange virus. Can't say I particularly blame them for that. Agree there's no point in denying it's happening though.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Kennedy, being long dead, isn’t whinging either.
True, but for all the sympathy that someone suffering with their inner demons should invoke in us, I cannot help but wonder, as implied by Omnium and alex_ to different degrees, to what extent it would, in fact, be reasonable and perhaps even responsible to address such an issue as a senior political figure's alcoholism. When it would be appropriate to raise, and how.
We've certainly had leaders who were hefty drinkers to say the least, and ones with many serious personal faults, and to an extent there is an argument that personal failings or personal demons are subordinate to if said individual is capable of serving the public. They are, by standing for public office, asking to be given power and responsibility over others, and perhaps it is acceptable for the personal to suffer if the public good is served. But if those failings or sufferings, even if deserving of sympathy, make someone potentially incapable?
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
I still think there is an element of nudging going on here.
Just listened to the Liverpool nightclub owner involved in the scheme who is helping and is enthusiastic about it
Apparently you have two tests, one before and one after the event.
The tickets are sold through the app and if you have a positive test before the event, your ticket price is refunded through the app
Now, I was not aware the NHS app was this sophisticated and I am not able to comment on how this works, but if true HMG seem a long way down the road of using an app for this purpose including ticket sales
However, if I have any detail wrong I am sorry if I have misunderstood the interview but I do believe this is a fair interpretation of the club owner's comments
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
Either way I think the Commission is making the mistake of promising things outside its control. The problem of antivax sentiment won’t be apparent initially while demand outstrips supply, but will be a big issue when they face pressure to open up with lots of unvaccinated people floating around.
While I think the EU won't get there until the beginning of September, he's not so very wrong.
Don't forget that (a) vaccine production is only growing, and (b) in about three months the US and the UK will be consuming close to zero doses. Plus, of course, an increasing proportion of available jabs will be single shot J&J ones.
Put those together, and it doesn't seem far fetched that the EU will be dosing 5m people a day come the summer. Three months of that, plus the fact that a lot of people will have already had it in the bloc, gets you there by the beginning of the Autumn.
I also think we're being a bit conservative here. More than half of UK adults have protection from at least one shot of the virus, and the most vulnerable have two. Plus there are going to be a lot of people, particularly in lower risk groups, that have already had it.
I'm no Great Barrington Declaration person, but I think you could remove lots of UK restrictions right now, especially if you prevented unvaccinated people from entering the country, without seeing cases spike.
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
I still think there is an element of nudging going on here.
Just listened to the Liverpool nightclub owner involved in the scheme who is helping and is enthusiastic about it
Apparently you have two tests, one before and one after the event.
The tickets are sold through the app and if you have a positive test before the event, your ticket price is refunded through the app
Now, I was not aware the NHS app was this sophisticated and I am not able to comment on how this works, but if true HMG seem a long way down the road of using an app for this purpose including ticket sales
However, if I have any detail wrong I am sorry if I have misunderstood the interview but I do believe this is a fair interpretation of the club owner's comments
If that story is true, that is a far more sophisticated and intrusive app than we had all been led to believe when we were told to get it.
Which on its own doesn’t inspire trust in government or their passport scheme.
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
I still think there is an element of nudging going on here.
Just listened to the Liverpool nightclub owner involved in the scheme who is helping and is enthusiastic about it
Apparently you have two tests, one before and one after the event.
The tickets are sold through the app and if you have a positive test before the event, your ticket price is refunded through the app
Now, I was not aware the NHS app was this sophisticated and I am not able to comment on how this works, but if true HMG seem a long way down the road of using an app for this purpose including ticket sales
However, if I have any detail wrong I am sorry if I have misunderstood the interview but I do believe this is a fair interpretation of the club owner's comments
If that story is true, that is a far more sophisticated and intrusive app than we had all been led to believe when we were told to get it.
Which on its own doesn’t inspire trust in government or their passport scheme.
It is as I understood it but I stand to be corrected by those with greater knowledge
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
I still think there is an element of nudging going on here.
Just listened to the Liverpool nightclub owner involved in the scheme who is helping and is enthusiastic about it
Apparently you have two tests, one before and one after the event.
The tickets are sold through the app and if you have a positive test before the event, your ticket price is refunded through the app
Now, I was not aware the NHS app was this sophisticated and I am not able to comment on how this works, but if true HMG seem a long way down the road of using an app for this purpose including ticket sales
However, if I have any detail wrong I am sorry if I have misunderstood the interview but I do believe this is a fair interpretation of the club owner's comments
If that story is true, that is a far more sophisticated and intrusive app than we had all been led to believe when we were told to get it.
Which on its own doesn’t inspire trust in government or their passport scheme.
It’s a lot of faffing about that will encourage the younger generation to get vaccinated as soon as they can. Which I suspect is the point.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
It is worth noting that there was a dramatic drop in antibody production for Pfizer-BioNTech and the SA variant. Yet it prove to still be 90+% effective in stopping there virus.
Part of the problem with AZ is that (as with J&J) immunity takes a while to build. You therefore tend to underestimate its effectiveness as the first six weeks' numbers are always included in the overall efficacy figures.
London mayoralty, Shaun Bailey 64-1 on Betfair and friendless
Yes. Quite how you manage that against Sadiq Khan is pretty astonishing.
I still hope Bailey wins.
I prefer him to SK too, but he's done nothing to earn it. Perhaps there's a better the devil you know thing.
SK has of course been totally useless. The nice thing is that he's so rubbish that the city just gets on with it. He's easily the worst London mayor. Although as with all of them he's kept the lights on and does seem to be more involved than one would expect of him. (All London Mayors have outperformed expectations in office)
It is worth noting that there was a dramatic drop in antibody production for Pfizer-BioNTech and the SA variant. Yet it prove to still be 90+% effective in stopping there virus.
Part of the problem with AZ is that (as with J&J) immunity takes a while to build. You therefore tend to underestimate its effectiveness as the first six weeks' numbers are always included in the overall efficacy figures.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
Yes if the decline in cases matched the vaccine rollout by category that would be interesting to know.
Some interesting comments today about the apparently confused messaging from the Govt over its "pilot" events for large scale sporting events. The Govt giving the impression that these pilots will involve production of vaccine certificates, and the organisers of the events themselves denying this.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
I still think there is an element of nudging going on here.
Just listened to the Liverpool nightclub owner involved in the scheme who is helping and is enthusiastic about it
Apparently you have two tests, one before and one after the event.
The tickets are sold through the app and if you have a positive test before the event, your ticket price is refunded through the app
Now, I was not aware the NHS app was this sophisticated and I am not able to comment on how this works, but if true HMG seem a long way down the road of using an app for this purpose including ticket sales
However, if I have any detail wrong I am sorry if I have misunderstood the interview but I do believe this is a fair interpretation of the club owner's comments
If that story is true, that is a far more sophisticated and intrusive app than we had all been led to believe when we were told to get it.
Which on its own doesn’t inspire trust in government or their passport scheme.
Commercial ticket selling sites might have cause for complaint about state subsidy and restraint of trade, if in future all ticket sales for all manner of major events are to be done through an NHS app!!!
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Thinly-veiled someone at the Sunday Times watched that BBC Alba documentary on Charles Kennedy that we flagged up on this very pb. It is not currently available on iplayer.
"Irish judge orders two mothers to isolate in hotels for two weeks and seizes their passports after they 'refused to quarantine' after flying to Dubai to get boob jobs
Niamh Mulreany, 25, and Kristie McGrath, 30, refused to quarantine in a hotel Visited Dubai for breast enhancement surgery and arrested in Dublin on Friday Current rules say those travelling outside country must quarantine for 14 days A court ordered the pair to complete their quarantine and return to court April 9"
Wouldn't it be great if the virus disappears completely from the UK in the next few weeks.
And much better still if Gavin Williamson disappeared to be governor of Rockall at the same time.
What has Rockall done to deserve that !!!!
Well, I was trying to think of somewhere where he couldn’t do any damage.
Originally I was going to post ‘wouldn’t it be nice if it could take Williamson with it?’ but then I realised that might be misconstrued as incitement to murder.
"Irish judge orders two mothers to isolate in hotels for two weeks and seizes their passports after they 'refused to quarantine' after flying to Dubai to get boob jobs
Niamh Mulreany, 25, and Kristie McGrath, 30, refused to quarantine in a hotel Visited Dubai for breast enhancement surgery and arrested in Dublin on Friday Current rules say those travelling outside country must quarantine for 14 days A court ordered the pair to complete their quarantine and return to court April 9"
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
Either way I think the Commission is making the mistake of promising things outside its control. The problem of antivax sentiment won’t be apparent initially while demand outstrips supply, but will be a big issue when they face pressure to open up with lots of unvaccinated people floating around.
While I think the EU won't get there until the beginning of September, he's not so very wrong.
Don't forget that (a) vaccine production is only growing, and (b) in about three months the US and the UK will be consuming close to zero doses. Plus, of course, an increasing proportion of available jabs will be single shot J&J ones.
Put those together, and it doesn't seem far fetched that the EU will be dosing 5m people a day come the summer. Three months of that, plus the fact that a lot of people will have already had it in the bloc, gets you there by the beginning of the Autumn.
I also think we're being a bit conservative here. More than half of UK adults have protection from at least one shot of the virus, and the most vulnerable have two. Plus there are going to be a lot of people, particularly in lower risk groups, that have already had it.
I'm no Great Barrington Declaration person, but I think you could remove lots of UK restrictions right now, especially if you prevented unvaccinated people from entering the country, without seeing cases spike.
The UK is in a very strong position, even compared to the US. The EU has 27 members to worry about and they don’t all have the same level of infrastructure to manage the rollout.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
Email your MP. I emailed mine - first time I've ever done it. This is a critical moment, there's no going back if this comes in.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
I agree with you but one should not forget the historic tendency to try to forget pandemics ever happened. That’s why many want to. We should encourage this chap to post here -
Looking back, that was probably THE most prescient and eloquent article on the cultural implications of Covid. Shame the writer was banned from PB. I can't even remember the reason? Something to do with him being TOO handsome and well-hung? All very odd
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
Forget about 1st January 2020, I'd like to turn the clock back to 1st January 1990.
Wouldn't it be great if the virus disappears completely from the UK in the next few weeks.
And much better still if Gavin Williamson disappeared to be governor of Rockall at the same time.
What has Rockall done to deserve that !!!!
Well, I was trying to think of somewhere where he couldn’t do any damage.
Originally I was going to post ‘wouldn’t it be nice if it could take Williamson with it?’ but then I realised that might be misconstrued as incitement to murder.
So Rockall seemed the next best option.
I enjoyed reading your header ydoethur.
Williamson is I think my favourite politician currently. I would really like to see him navigate his way out of his current clown status.
Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system?
We already have NHS numbers, that's not new, nor are NI numbers etc. Its not being linked to everything else like the ID card idea was meant to be.
It won't be to begin with, but it could easily become one.
Look, maybe they're telling the truth that it will be time limited for a year. But I don't trust them. And most of all, there is absolutely no need for these measures.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
The issue is this
CFR looks increasingly good
With cases, the young are doing more and more of the coughing
Admissions are heading down, but haven't collapsed (the curve down at the end of the graph is Bank Holiday Effect)
But while decreasing, the elderly are still doing much of the dying
So while things look good - how much is vaccine, and how much the lockdown? The way to know for sure would be separate data for vaccinated and unvaccinated - but we don't have that publicly available yet.
Wouldn't it be great if the virus disappears completely from the UK in the next few weeks.
And much better still if Gavin Williamson disappeared to be governor of Rockall at the same time.
What has Rockall done to deserve that !!!!
Well, I was trying to think of somewhere where he couldn’t do any damage.
Originally I was going to post ‘wouldn’t it be nice if it could take Williamson with it?’ but then I realised that might be misconstrued as incitement to murder.
So Rockall seemed the next best option.
I enjoyed reading your header ydoethur.
Williamson is I think my favourite politician currently. I would really like to see him navigate his way out of his current clown status.
I would also like to see him navigate his way out of it.
Somewhere a good long way from (a) education and (b) me.
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
Either way I think the Commission is making the mistake of promising things outside its control. The problem of antivax sentiment won’t be apparent initially while demand outstrips supply, but will be a big issue when they face pressure to open up with lots of unvaccinated people floating around.
While I think the EU won't get there until the beginning of September, he's not so very wrong.
Don't forget that (a) vaccine production is only growing, and (b) in about three months the US and the UK will be consuming close to zero doses. Plus, of course, an increasing proportion of available jabs will be single shot J&J ones.
Put those together, and it doesn't seem far fetched that the EU will be dosing 5m people a day come the summer. Three months of that, plus the fact that a lot of people will have already had it in the bloc, gets you there by the beginning of the Autumn.
I also think we're being a bit conservative here. More than half of UK adults have protection from at least one shot of the virus, and the most vulnerable have two. Plus there are going to be a lot of people, particularly in lower risk groups, that have already had it.
I'm no Great Barrington Declaration person, but I think you could remove lots of UK restrictions right now, especially if you prevented unvaccinated people from entering the country, without seeing cases spike.
The UK is in a very strong position, even compared to the US. The EU has 27 members to worry about and they don’t all have the same level of infrastructure to manage the rollout.
The NHS is greatly helpful here.
Reading about the German roll-out, what surprises me is their bureaucratic inefficiency, the pettifogging rules that hinder them, still.
Vorsprung durch nah maybe not
OTOH their death rate is still about half of ours so we have absolutely no reason to gloat. All the UK is doing is playing catch up after a catastrophic first half
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
The issue is this
CFR looks increasingly good
With cases, the young are doing more and more of the coughing
Admissions are heading down, but haven't collapsed (the curve down at the end of the graph is Bank Holiday Effect)
But while decreasing, the elderly are still doing much of the dying
So while things look good - how much is vaccine, and how much the lockdown? The way to know for sure would be separate data for vaccinated and unvaccinated - but we don't have that publicly available yet.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Kennedy, being long dead, isn’t whinging either.
True, but for all the sympathy that someone suffering with their inner demons should invoke in us, I cannot help but wonder, as implied by Omnium and alex_ to different degrees, to what extent it would, in fact, be reasonable and perhaps even responsible to address such an issue as a senior political figure's alcoholism. When it would be appropriate to raise, and how.
We've certainly had leaders who were hefty drinkers to say the least, and ones with many serious personal faults, and to an extent there is an argument that personal failings or personal demons are subordinate to if said individual is capable of serving the public. They are, by standing for public office, asking to be given power and responsibility over others, and perhaps it is acceptable for the personal to suffer if the public good is served. But if those failings or sufferings, even if deserving of sympathy, make someone potentially incapable?
Kennedy had moved from being a functional alcoholic to a non-functional one. This was apparent to people seeing him in the street - I live and worked around Central London in the period in question and personally saw him in a terrible state on more than one occasion.
That being said, some of the people who went after him deserve a beating.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
Forget about 1st January 2020, I'd like to turn the clock back to 1st January 1990.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
The issue is this
CFR looks increasingly good
With cases, the young are doing more and more of the coughing
Admissions are heading down, but haven't collapsed (the curve down at the end of the graph is Bank Holiday Effect)
But while decreasing, the elderly are still doing much of the dying
So while things look good - how much is vaccine, and how much the lockdown? The way to know for sure would be separate data for vaccinated and unvaccinated - but we don't have that publicly available yet.
I think this question was asked the other day, but with cases bobbing along in the low thousands how many "28 day deaths" would we expect that are actually not caused by Covid? (and would naturally skew old)
Last summer we got down to zero deaths on some days, but of course that was when overall testing was a fraction of what it is today.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
The issue is this
CFR looks increasingly good
With cases, the young are doing more and more of the coughing
Admissions are heading down, but haven't collapsed (the curve down at the end of the graph is Bank Holiday Effect)
But while decreasing, the elderly are still doing much of the dying
So while things look good - how much is vaccine, and how much the lockdown? The way to know for sure would be separate data for vaccinated and unvaccinated - but we don't have that publicly available yet.
Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system?
We already have NHS numbers, that's not new, nor are NI numbers etc. Its not being linked to everything else like the ID card idea was meant to be.
It won't be to begin with, but it could easily become one.
Look, maybe they're telling the truth that it will be time limited for a year. But I don't trust them. And most of all, there is absolutely no need for these measures.
I don't see how it becomes one. There's already an NHS app linked to NHS number, an HMRC app linked to NI number etc - but they're not ID cards.
That there's no need for these measures is surely a much more important issue than the fear that this would become an ID card. This is never something that would last for long, so seems like a really weak basis for a nascent ID card.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
I think its not surprising, the back to the office people that like being in the office won't like it if they go back to the office and half the people are still working from home. They regard the office as their social life and wont tolerate the socialising being cut and will try their best to argue everyone should be in the office because that makes them happy
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
As I have said many times before. I can't see where the economy goes post pandemic. I am not sure incumbency is the place to be, here or elsewhere.
We are also seeing the emergence of a new form of "Covid denier" or Covid denial.
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
I think there is a middle ground of (under this classification) "Covid sceptics", who whilst not denying that change is coming, are either sceptical about the extent of it, or at least believe that in many areas those who are drawing lessons for their businesses etc for the future based on the extra-ordinary circumstances of the pandemic are possibly making serious mistakes. For example retailers with significant high street presence pivoting to a level of online market presence that may significantly dent their future brand recognition. And in many cases will change their terms of competition with the likes of Amazon that they are bound to lose. Or office based industries drawing conclusions about the attraction of home working which may work a lot better for first generation home workers in established teams, but may bode ill for future turnover and developments in their service delivery etc etc.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Charles Kennedy was also not the leader of a political party and hadn’t been for over nine years.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Charles Kennedy was also not the leader of a political party and hadn’t been for over nine years.
He was still an MP at the time of the election.
Well at the time Parliament was dissolved at least, since there are no MPs during an election.
Picking up on the earlier vaccines work aren't we great look at us everyone. And as written about in the NYT.
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
Hopefully someone like @Malmesbury might come along in a little while to offer more in-depth reassurance, but AIUI the proportionate decline in cases, hospitalisations and deaths amongst the older age groups has been outstripping that in the younger ones for up to a couple of months now - and those declines have occurred sequentially in line with the order of vaccination (i.e. first amongst the over 80s, then the over 70s, and so on.) Lockdown has done some of the heavy lifting but effects like those and the current extremely low Covid death rate (this time not occuring in late Summer after months of fine weather) would also seem to have a significant vaccine effect component.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
The issue is this
CFR looks increasingly good
With cases, the young are doing more and more of the coughing
Admissions are heading down, but haven't collapsed (the curve down at the end of the graph is Bank Holiday Effect)
But while decreasing, the elderly are still doing much of the dying
So while things look good - how much is vaccine, and how much the lockdown? The way to know for sure would be separate data for vaccinated and unvaccinated - but we don't have that publicly available yet.
I think this question was asked the other day, but with cases bobbing along in the low thousands how many "28 day deaths" would we expect that are actually not caused by Covid? (and would naturally skew old)
Last summer we got down to zero deaths on some days, but of course that was when overall testing was a fraction of what it is today.
c. 0.1% of the average of positive tests 28 days previously. (I have checked the age distribution of cases so it does look to be in the right ballpark). Right now, that would be 5-6 deaths per day (against date of death rather than date-they-get-around-to-reporting-it; currently running at c. 30 per day).
Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system?
We already have NHS numbers, that's not new, nor are NI numbers etc. Its not being linked to everything else like the ID card idea was meant to be.
It won't be to begin with, but it could easily become one.
Look, maybe they're telling the truth that it will be time limited for a year. But I don't trust them. And most of all, there is absolutely no need for these measures.
Look at mr libertarian...I see no problem with having to check into and out of places and inform the state.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Clearly he isn't doing anything, and I'm sure that he'd never have whinged. A good man. much missed.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Clearly he isn't doing anything, and I'm sure that he'd never have whinged. A good man. much missed.
Was the cause of his alcoholism ever diagnosed? Did it run in his family? Was he prone to depression?
I have lived in Wales since 1986. Both my parents were first language Welsh speakers. The only Welsh people I have ever heard say boyo are the actors Windsor Davies and Richard Davies. Both presumably reading scripts written by English people.
Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system?
We already have NHS numbers, that's not new, nor are NI numbers etc. Its not being linked to everything else like the ID card idea was meant to be.
It won't be to begin with, but it could easily become one.
Look, maybe they're telling the truth that it will be time limited for a year. But I don't trust them. And most of all, there is absolutely no need for these measures.
Look at mr libertarian...I see no problem with having to check into and out of places and inform the state.
Oh could it be because god johnson wants it?
Who's in favour of having to check into and out of places and informing the state? I don't think tlg is in favour of that, quite the opposite.
I don't think any libertarians on this site are in favour of a state mandated compulsory scheme.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Perhaps (sadly) from beyond the grave. His tormented soul would have every right so to do based on this evidence.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Clearly he isn't doing anything, and I'm sure that he'd never have whinged. A good man. much missed.
Was the cause of his alcoholism ever diagnosed? Did it run in his family? Was he prone to depression?
He was a rather likeable chap. Very sad way to go
The usual cause of alcoholism is drinking. Every glass of wine take you closer. So far as I know there is no other cause.
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
Either way I think the Commission is making the mistake of promising things outside its control. The problem of antivax sentiment won’t be apparent initially while demand outstrips supply, but will be a big issue when they face pressure to open up with lots of unvaccinated people floating around.
While I think the EU won't get there until the beginning of September, he's not so very wrong.
Don't forget that (a) vaccine production is only growing, and (b) in about three months the US and the UK will be consuming close to zero doses. Plus, of course, an increasing proportion of available jabs will be single shot J&J ones.
Put those together, and it doesn't seem far fetched that the EU will be dosing 5m people a day come the summer. Three months of that, plus the fact that a lot of people will have already had it in the bloc, gets you there by the beginning of the Autumn.
I also think we're being a bit conservative here. More than half of UK adults have protection from at least one shot of the virus, and the most vulnerable have two. Plus there are going to be a lot of people, particularly in lower risk groups, that have already had it.
I'm no Great Barrington Declaration person, but I think you could remove lots of UK restrictions right now, especially if you prevented unvaccinated people from entering the country, without seeing cases spike.
The UK is in a very strong position, even compared to the US. The EU has 27 members to worry about and they don’t all have the same level of infrastructure to manage the rollout.
I agree with you re the US. Go look at the vaccination numbers for Alabama or Mississippi. Despite being open for all adults to get vaccinated, and there being no shortage of vaccines in the US, you are seeing the numbers vaccinated in those states dropping week-over-week. It's a combination of sceptical African-Americans and QAnon covid deniers.
We could see, and I find this astonishing, vaccine take up in these states below 35%.
The point, though, remains that the major problem the EU has is lack of vaccines. Simply, they prioritized price per dose over getting the doses quickly, which was a monumental error. But it's also a short lived one.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Thinly-veiled someone at the Sunday Times watched that BBC Alba documentary on Charles Kennedy that we flagged up on this very pb. It is not currently available on iplayer.
BBC Alba, huh? Didn't take them long to show their true colors.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Clearly he isn't doing anything, and I'm sure that he'd never have whinged. A good man. much missed.
Was the cause of his alcoholism ever diagnosed? Did it run in his family? Was he prone to depression?
He was a rather likeable chap. Very sad way to go
The usual cause of alcoholism is drinking. Every glass of wine take you closer. So far as I know there is no other cause.
Not so. There is plentiful evidence that alcoholism can be an inherited trait
"Many independent lines of evidence point to genetic contributions to [alcoholism's] etiology. Adoption studies show that alcoholism in adoptees correlates more strongly with their biological parents than their adoptive parents10-13. Twin studies in the US and Europe suggest that approximately 45-65% of the liability is due to genetic factors14-17. Animal studies also demonstrate genetic liability; mice and rats have been selectively bred for many traits associated with alcohol dependence, including alcohol preference, alcohol sensitivity, and withdrawal sensitivity18, 19.
"The ability to genetically select for these traits demonstrates that there are genetic bases for them, and that different genes contribute to different aspects of the phenotype. Taken together, there is overwhelming evidence that genetic variations contribute to the risk for alcohol dependence."
Incidentally, I have calculated the natural R for COVID19
0. Zero.
The methodology was this -
1) Compile a list of the posts on PB where people said "Obviously, x, y & z didn't spread COVID. Obviously a, b,& c did. Anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot" 2) From this, compile a list of a-c, eliminating overlaps. 3) Compile a similar list of x, y and z's 4) Remove the x-z's from the set of a-c's 5) This resulted in an empty set.
Therefore we can conclude that *nothing* causes the spread of COVID19.
If you're the leader of a political party then you have to expect this sort of thing. I imagine that Farage has had more abuse hurled at him that anyone else in British politics. He's not whinging.
Is Charles Kennedy "whinging"?
Clearly he isn't doing anything, and I'm sure that he'd never have whinged. A good man. much missed.
Was the cause of his alcoholism ever diagnosed? Did it run in his family? Was he prone to depression?
He was a rather likeable chap. Very sad way to go
The usual cause of alcoholism is drinking. Every glass of wine take you closer. So far as I know there is no other cause.
Not so. There is plentiful evidence that alcoholism can be an inherited trait
"Many independent lines of evidence point to genetic contributions to [alcoholism's] etiology. Adoption studies show that alcoholism in adoptees correlates more strongly with their biological parents than their adoptive parents10-13. Twin studies in the US and Europe suggest that approximately 45-65% of the liability is due to genetic factors14-17. Animal studies also demonstrate genetic liability; mice and rats have been selectively bred for many traits associated with alcohol dependence, including alcohol preference, alcohol sensitivity, and withdrawal sensitivity18, 19.
"The ability to genetically select for these traits demonstrates that there are genetic bases for them, and that different genes contribute to different aspects of the phenotype. Taken together, there is overwhelming evidence that genetic variations contribute to the risk for alcohol dependence."
Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system?
We already have NHS numbers, that's not new, nor are NI numbers etc. Its not being linked to everything else like the ID card idea was meant to be.
It won't be to begin with, but it could easily become one.
Look, maybe they're telling the truth that it will be time limited for a year. But I don't trust them. And most of all, there is absolutely no need for these measures.
Look at mr libertarian...I see no problem with having to check into and out of places and inform the state.
Oh could it be because god johnson wants it?
Who's in favour of having to check into and out of places and informing the state? I don't think tlg is in favour of that, quite the opposite.
I don't think any libertarians on this site are in favour of a state mandated compulsory scheme.
I was replying to you and I quote Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system? The government is very much looking at a scan in app
Comments
Although it is presumably "possible" to reach it in the UK depending on how solid the protection is from single doses. Unless the point is that it is impossible without children.
In 2017, our analysis of the BES data suggests that turnout among over 55s was 83.35%, compared to 58.15% of those under 55. Likewise, turnout was 84.34% vs. 63.06% for over and under 65s respectively. Combining these BES estimates of turnout with LFS estimates of nationality and ONS population estimates, we arrive at the following figures: the over 55s constituted 48.35% of the voting public in 2017, and the over 65s, 30.27%. If we assume that both turnout and the proportion of those disenfranchised due to their nationality remain constant, over 55s will constitute over half of the voting public by 2020 as a result of projected demographic change.
https://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2019/05/21/the-rise-of-the-grey-vote/
Demographic change should result in these proportions increasing over the next few decades.
The gradual inversion of the population pyramid operates entirely in favour of the Right. If Labour (or a successor party) cannot discover the means to appeal to older voters then it is sunk.
Violations of the public decency law in the UAE carry penalties of up to six months in prison and a 5,000 dirham (£983) fine."
https://news.sky.com/story/arrests-in-dubai-after-more-than-a-dozen-naked-women-pose-on-balcony-12265680
This is a group who don't deny Covid in terms of it being a serious virus but do deny it has caused any changes in Britain, politically, socially, economically and culturally.
It's not that they refute Covid as having the potential to make change, rather they want to deny any change. So, everyone will go back to desks in offices, everyone will go back to shopping in the High Street and it will be as if the last 12 months or so have never happened. It is a conscious effort to turn the clock back to January 1st 2020.
It's a mental and cultural "reset", a desire to forget what has happened and a frenetic return to what was.
Oddly enough, it manifests among some surprising groups but it's primarily those who liked the life they had in its entirety and want that life back.
I wonder if some of these events were in the planning before the sudden accelerated focus on passports, and the Govt has tagged them on at the last minute?
That gives 29.
Your other figures are interesting - do you have a source? It’s not ridiculously far from what I was expecting but I haven’t seen those numbers before.
https://unherd.com/2020/05/why-we-remember-wars-but-forget-plagues/
I bloody well hope they do work but for the past four months we have been and continue to be in severe lockdown.
That is what has worked. Schools back and no uptick in cases is hugely encouraging but we are far from sure about the ultimate outcome.
Which is presumably why the govt is cacking itself with vaccine passports.
Not doom mongering just pointing out logical flaws in the we got it right narrative.
We've certainly had leaders who were hefty drinkers to say the least, and ones with many serious personal faults, and to an extent there is an argument that personal failings or personal demons are subordinate to if said individual is capable of serving the public. They are, by standing for public office, asking to be given power and responsibility over others, and perhaps it is acceptable for the personal to suffer if the public good is served. But if those failings or sufferings, even if deserving of sympathy, make someone potentially incapable?
Apparently you have two tests, one before and one after the event.
The tickets are sold through the app and if you have a positive test before the event, your ticket price is refunded through the app
Now, I was not aware the NHS app was this sophisticated and I am not able to comment on how this works, but if true HMG seem a long way down the road of using an app for this purpose including ticket sales
However, if I have any detail wrong I am sorry if I have misunderstood the interview but I do believe this is a fair interpretation of the club owner's comments
Don't forget that (a) vaccine production is only growing, and (b) in about three months the US and the UK will be consuming close to zero doses. Plus, of course, an increasing proportion of available jabs will be single shot J&J ones.
Put those together, and it doesn't seem far fetched that the EU will be dosing 5m people a day come the summer. Three months of that, plus the fact that a lot of people will have already had it in the bloc, gets you there by the beginning of the Autumn.
I also think we're being a bit conservative here. More than half of UK adults have protection from at least one shot of the virus, and the most vulnerable have two. Plus there are going to be a lot of people, particularly in lower risk groups, that have already had it.
I'm no Great Barrington Declaration person, but I think you could remove lots of UK restrictions right now, especially if you prevented unvaccinated people from entering the country, without seeing cases spike.
Which on its own doesn’t inspire trust in government or their passport scheme.
If Labour lose London Ed Davey might as well take over as Leader of the Opposition.
Certainly if vaccine passports were a response to some desperate need to keep suppressing what would otherwise be a rampant disease, then they'd be contemplating either enforcing them for virtually everything or keeping us stuck in lockdown. But they aren't, of course. They're an excuse to build an electronic ID card system.
Part of the problem with AZ is that (as with J&J) immunity takes a while to build. You therefore tend to underestimate its effectiveness as the first six weeks' numbers are always included in the overall efficacy figures.
SK has of course been totally useless. The nice thing is that he's so rubbish that the city just gets on with it. He's easily the worst London mayor. Although as with all of them he's kept the lights on and does seem to be more involved than one would expect of him. (All London Mayors have outperformed expectations in office)
Niamh Mulreany, 25, and Kristie McGrath, 30, refused to quarantine in a hotel
Visited Dubai for breast enhancement surgery and arrested in Dublin on Friday
Current rules say those travelling outside country must quarantine for 14 days
A court ordered the pair to complete their quarantine and return to court April 9"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9434555/Two-mothers-ordered-isolate-hotels-returned-Dubai-refused-quarantine.html
Originally I was going to post ‘wouldn’t it be nice if it could take Williamson with it?’ but then I realised that might be misconstrued as incitement to murder.
So Rockall seemed the next best option.
Williamson is I think my favourite politician currently. I would really like to see him navigate his way out of his current clown status.
We already have NHS numbers, that's not new, nor are NI numbers etc. Its not being linked to everything else like the ID card idea was meant to be.
Look, maybe they're telling the truth that it will be time limited for a year. But I don't trust them. And most of all, there is absolutely no need for these measures.
CFR looks increasingly good
With cases, the young are doing more and more of the coughing
Admissions are heading down, but haven't collapsed (the curve down at the end of the graph is Bank Holiday Effect)
But while decreasing, the elderly are still doing much of the dying
So while things look good - how much is vaccine, and how much the lockdown? The way to know for sure would be separate data for vaccinated and unvaccinated - but we don't have that publicly available yet.
Somewhere a good long way from (a) education and (b) me.
Edit - for once, that wasn’t deliberate.
Reading about the German roll-out, what surprises me is their bureaucratic inefficiency, the pettifogging rules that hinder them, still.
Vorsprung durch nah maybe not
OTOH their death rate is still about half of ours so we have absolutely no reason to gloat. All the UK is doing is playing catch up after a catastrophic first half
https://www.amazon.com/bad-dragon-flint-medium/dp/b00jv33jq4
That being said, some of the people who went after him deserve a beating.
Last summer we got down to zero deaths on some days, but of course that was when overall testing was a fraction of what it is today.
That there's no need for these measures is surely a much more important issue than the fear that this would become an ID card. This is never something that would last for long, so seems like a really weak basis for a nascent ID card.
Wonder who will get the blame for this under worst case scenarios?
Hiraeth.
It’s about a chap locked up in Gitmo for 14 years without charge or trial.
There is a good chance Italy will cruise past us in the next two-three weeks...
I think there is a middle ground of (under this classification) "Covid sceptics", who whilst not denying that change is coming, are either sceptical about the extent of it, or at least believe that in many areas those who are drawing lessons for their businesses etc for the future based on the extra-ordinary circumstances of the pandemic are possibly making serious mistakes. For example retailers with significant high street presence pivoting to a level of online market presence that may significantly dent their future brand recognition. And in many cases will change their terms of competition with the likes of Amazon that they are bound to lose. Or office based industries drawing conclusions about the attraction of home working which may work a lot better for first generation home workers in established teams, but may bode ill for future turnover and developments in their service delivery etc etc.
Well at the time Parliament was dissolved at least, since there are no MPs during an election.
(I have checked the age distribution of cases so it does look to be in the right ballpark).
Right now, that would be 5-6 deaths per day (against date of death rather than date-they-get-around-to-reporting-it; currently running at c. 30 per day).
Oh could it be because god johnson wants it?
He was a rather likeable chap. Very sad way to go
I don't think any libertarians on this site are in favour of a state mandated compulsory scheme.
We could see, and I find this astonishing, vaccine take up in these states below 35%.
The point, though, remains that the major problem the EU has is lack of vaccines. Simply, they prioritized price per dose over getting the doses quickly, which was a monumental error. But it's also a short lived one.
(For the avoidance of doubt, that was a joke.)
"Many independent lines of evidence point to genetic contributions to [alcoholism's] etiology. Adoption studies show that alcoholism in adoptees correlates more strongly with their biological parents than their adoptive parents10-13. Twin studies in the US and Europe suggest that approximately 45-65% of the liability is due to genetic factors14-17. Animal studies also demonstrate genetic liability; mice and rats have been selectively bred for many traits associated with alcohol dependence, including alcohol preference, alcohol sensitivity, and withdrawal sensitivity18, 19.
"The ability to genetically select for these traits demonstrates that there are genetic bases for them, and that different genes contribute to different aspects of the phenotype. Taken together, there is overwhelming evidence that genetic variations contribute to the risk for alcohol dependence."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4056340/
0. Zero.
The methodology was this -
1) Compile a list of the posts on PB where people said "Obviously, x, y & z didn't spread COVID. Obviously a, b,& c did. Anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot"
2) From this, compile a list of a-c, eliminating overlaps.
3) Compile a similar list of x, y and z's
4) Remove the x-z's from the set of a-c's
5) This resulted in an empty set.
Therefore we can conclude that *nothing* causes the spread of COVID19.
Can someone phone the Nobel Commitee?
Can someone please explain how a vaccine app is supposed to be some form of electronic ID card system?
The government is very much looking at a scan in app
I thank you,,,
Edit - bollocks, hit comma instead of full stop. Must have had too much wine,