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The May 6th Welsh Senedd election is starting to look very tight – politicalbetting.com
The May 6th Welsh Senedd election is starting to look very tight – politicalbetting.com
Latest Senedd voting intention (16-19 Mar)Lab – 32% (constituency vote) / 31% (regional/party vote)Con – 30%/28%Plaid Cymru – 23%/22% Lib Dem – 5%/4%Abolish – 3%/7%Reform UK – 3%/1%https://t.co/QkWuB7oO4D pic.twitter.com/tHWLNzq0Fz
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Here, 2 basements and a car park.
I mean in October 2019 a YouGov poll had the Tories in the lead, ahead of Labour by 1, the actual result? Labour win by 5%
Back in April 2017 YouGov had the Tories 10% ahead, two months later in the election Labour win by over 15%
As we know soap dodgers students and younger voters often say they vote and then they never do.
Re: domestic vaccination passports. It seems to me absolutely astonishing (and scary) the seeming blithe acceptance by many of the inevitability of this idea. Labour's position even seems to be that it isn't fair to leave the decision to pubs etc, so it actually has to be made mandatory!
This would be the biggest imposition on civil liberties in UK history (and don't give me all this - "well if you don't want to go out in public, that's your choice nonsense"). The issue isn't even whether people should be de facto forced into getting vaccinated. What people are talking about is a digital passport which will, in effect, track you whenever you enter a crowded public space. This is beyond even the idea of (paper) ID cards, where at least there is no clear trail of where you've been. It is a severe curtailment of the rights of the vaccinated, as well of those who opt out. Just think what the authorities could do with this if they so wished...
And i really am struggling to understand what the supposed health benefit payoff is supposed to be. Either the vaccine works, in which case the vast majority of the population being vaccinated means they present no risk to others, and others pose no risk to them. And in the vaccinated numbers we are talking about there would be overwhelming herd immunity preventing any occasional transmission to or from unvaccinated people having no particular effect on public health as a whole. So for those who want to remain unvaccinated, it really is largely a personal choice.
Or alternatively (god forbid) the vaccines don't work as hoped. In which case the whole point supposed point of a vaccine passport is moot anyway. Is this that somebody has planted a seed in the politicians heads, and nobody lacks the ability to actually think through either the need or the implications.
If we need them to go abroad, well that's a decision for other countries that we can do little to influence. And that question really is only about the personal choice to get vaccinated, with no additional burden for those who do.
A senior Army officer has been found guilty of dishonestly claiming £48,000 for his children's education.
Maj Gen Nick Welch, 57, claimed to live in London rather than at Blandford Forum, Dorset, near their schools.
Welch, who left the military in 2018, was convicted of fraud by a panel of senior officers after a four-week trial at Bulford Military Court.
He is believed to be the most senior officer to be court-martialled since 1815.
The Continuity of Education Allowance (CEA) allows children to remain at the same schools to enable their serving parent to be accompanied by their spouse as they are posted to different locations.
However, it cannot be claimed if a soldier's spouse is away from the military home for more than 90 days per year, the court heard.
During the four-week trial, the prosecution said Welch applied for the allowance on the basis both he and his wife would not be living close to the children.
But it claimed his wife Charlotte actually spent most of her time at a cottage in Blandford Forum, close to the £37,000-a-year Clayesmore School and the £22,500-a-year Hanford School.
An investigation was launched after a neighbour told authorities about the family's absence from London.
Welch denied being dishonest and said his wife was living with him for the majority of the time.
His barrister, Sarah Jones QC, said the CEA system and the 90-day rule were a "mess" and not strictly enforced.
A character reference from the former Commander of Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons, said Welch was of "unimpeachable integrity".
But prosecutor Sarah Clarke QC said he had attempted to manipulate the figures regarding his family's locations to cover up his dishonesty.
A Ministry of Defence spokeswoman said: "It has been proven in this case that the retired Major General Nicholas Welch OBE did commit fraud and therefore he will be sentenced accordingly."
He is due to be sentenced on Friday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-56524730
Of course, in France with 45K cases/day (likely much higher) that is not the case. They have unfortunately have a very difficult few months to go through just as we did at the beginning of the year. We at least discovered the Kent variant. They knew all about it ahead of time and should have been more prepared.
Have you seen the Welsh Tories?
A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.
It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.
Wales is like Jurassic Park.
Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.
No idea what they stand for just like the concept.
‘What are your policies?’
‘Abolition’
Just abolish everything. Sorted
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9403145/Britains-daily-Covid-deaths-plunge-63-cases-creep-1-5-6-397.html
https://twitter.com/olgachristie/status/1374958398278615040?s=21
All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees
3
2
1
P3
P2
P1
G
B1
B2
https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
Wow
A remarkable breakthrough indeed.
Rolling rate 60+ Peak 08-01-21 484.9 Current 21.1 (96% decrease)
0 - 59 Peak 04-01-21 748.2 Current 66.3 (91% decrease)
Doing the vax program this way round was always going to prioritise decreasing deaths over decreasing cases[1]. As the program pushes into younger age groups there should be a more marked effect on cases as prevalence always was higher for younger people.
[1] Correctly.
https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1375135709854580738?s=20
https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1375136120795758598?s=20
Did the EU ask the UK? As far as I can see the UK has worked constructively with AZN throughout, while the EU has hectored, berated, traduced and tried to bully.
If you were AZN, who would you want to help?
Thursday 11/03 6,753
Thursday 18/03 6,303
Thursday 25/03 6,397
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
The world is full of fuckwits.
It's quite long and detailed, but I was quite pleased with it.
And oddly, even in light of Covid it doesn't need much tweaking.
I shall unleash The Demented Lawyer In His Wife's Kimono....
We’re nearly at the finishing line. But one fuck up - importing a load of the SA bug from France - could destroy alll our grinding hard work. This is exceptionally important. Just get a fucking grip, Boris. France is on fire.
Three byelections today, 2 in Scotland and 1 in Wales.
Midlothian East, south-east of Edinburgh.
Almond and Earn, south and west of Perth.
Llanrug, east of Caenarfon.
The latter is normally PC unopposed, with 87.8% Welsh speaking based on the 2011 census. Unfortunately it probably will not tell us much about the Senedd elections in May.
Or give her lots of needle?
I was expecting more from the reopening of schools. They seem to be having more of an increase in Ireland following their school reopening. I don't think they're doing as much testing in schools either.
Must be the vaccine difference.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1375138845721780233?s=20
There was certainly an expectation beforehand, that schoolkids would spread the virus unknowingly between their mostly unvaccinated parents.
Fingers crossed the opening-up remains on schedule.
At the time the blood clots issue arose, there were some remarks on here to the effect that the injection technique mattered with vaccines, that flesh bunched up wasn't so good and flesh stretched out was better.
This video clearly shows some people using the flesh bunched up technique. So is it really true that bunched up can lead to problems?
If not -- yes, yes, yes, we want to read it.
from case data
from hospitalisation data
He lied about his whereabouts, and now he is a criminal.
https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=189996
I presume a "surprise" would be the Conservatives getting most votes but I just wonder if the surprise will end there.
If the numbers work that either Labour +PC or Conservative + PC would command a majority in the Senedd, there seems an assumption only the former is likely.
I wonder.
72 hours before the 2010 election, Cameron said he wouldn't do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. That's what politicians say because they want you to vote for them not for someone else. I don't know if Andrew Davies is honestly saying a Welsh Conservative Party he led couldn't work with Plaid but if the opportunity were there to replace Labour and become First Minister, are we saying he wouldn't take it?
That would be the surprise, a CON/PC Government in Wales.
I wouldn't rule it out whatever the respective Party leaders are saying now - the temptation of power can be very strong.
SHOW ME THE RISE!!!! SHOW ME THE RISE!!!
But, while at least 1,890 foreigners reached British shores in small boats last year, the Home Office says only about 125 were returned to European countries during the same period.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50813246
The Tories and the Liberal Democrats had an awful lot more in common than the Tories would with Plaid.
Plus, I cannot think of a better way for Plaid to piss off their core vote. They still haven't fully recovered from joining Labour in 2007 and this would be that on speed.
It could have worked in 2007 with the Yellows as a buffer. But it wouldn't work right now.
The Tories have to get within about 2 seats of a majority and then insist Labour and Plaid provide the Llywydd and Deputy if they are to take power.
And that just ain't gonna happen.
The question really is whether Plaid will go for full coalition with Labour or come to an agreement on confidence and supply. I think the latter would be wiser but the former is slightly more likely depending on what they're offered.
That might be damaging to both if the Tories are the largest party. But sufficient unto 2026 is the evil thereof.
We must be pretty close to the floor of how few positives it is feasible to get.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsI3fHUOlQM
This may seem odd, given the monumental decision Brits took in 2016, backing a campaign to leave the EU led by people like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson -- free-market capitalists and ardent Euroskeptics.
Yet while Brits did vote by a majority of 1.3 million to leave the EU, what isn't clear is whether they really wanted to be less European.
"There are essentially two dimensions to British politics: The left-right divide on economics and [the] liberal-conservative divide on social issues," says Chris Curtis, a pollster at Opinium Research. He explains that among the political classes, these tend to correlate as social conservatives supporting right-wing economics.
It's much less clear among the general public though.
"Lots of people voted 'Leave' because they wanted the UK to have more control and they opposed immigration, but they do not support the idea of shrinking the state, deregulating, and lowering standards," Curtis adds. "Many of the leaders of the Brexit movement saw the future of the country differently."
Britain as a European nation has always been a bit of a paradox.
On one hand, the public doesn't think of itself as particularly European. On the other, it supports policies which are.
Some of their CVs and work is something to behold.
Earlier, Biden said: “There is a significant increase in the number of people coming in the border in the winter months of January, February, March. It happens every year”.
Except it doesn't.
I simply don't believe there are that many white supremacists around.