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The May 6th Welsh Senedd election is starting to look very tight – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 25 in General
The May 6th Welsh Senedd election is starting to look very tight – politicalbetting.com

Latest Senedd voting intention (16-19 Mar)Lab – 32% (constituency vote) / 31% (regional/party vote)Con – 30%/28%Plaid Cymru – 23%/22% Lib Dem – 5%/4%Abolish – 3%/7%Reform UK – 3%/1%https://t.co/QkWuB7oO4D pic.twitter.com/tHWLNzq0Fz

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    First
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    Although I should probably have found the Welsh for first
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    yn gyntaf
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    1st.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    edited March 25
    I count posts like Yanks count floors.

    Here, 2 basements and a car park.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,333
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of mine - male, 40s, no health issues, north London - has just been told he’s getting his first dose next week.

    Intriguing. So they’re moving on to the 40s? At least here

    59, still waiting. Sigh.
    I thought you could just go on the NHS website and book?
    Apparently not, in Scotland
    Imagine if it was the other way around, Boris and Hancock would be getting battered pillar to post. The online booking service has been another quiet success, especially given how piss poor normally anything government and IT is.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,334
    MattW said:

    I count posts like Yanks count floors.

    Here, 2 basements.

    Or Parking Garage levels
  • The Welsh are the Mitch McConnells of British politics, they tease they are going over to the Blue Meanies but they never do.

    I mean in October 2019 a YouGov poll had the Tories in the lead, ahead of Labour by 1, the actual result? Labour win by 5%

    Back in April 2017 YouGov had the Tories 10% ahead, two months later in the election Labour win by over 15%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,333
    I demand to be first, I have a contract and everything that says I should always be first.....if you don't allow me to be first I am going to claim OGH is starting a war.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    At this rate it looks like they'll be replacing one Labour-led Government with another Labour-led Government. The main difference will be that it'll be vastly more nationalistic. That'll be fun.
  • I do wonder if this poll flatters Labour simply for the fact that sixteen and seventeen year olds have the vote in this election.

    As we know soap dodgers students and younger voters often say they vote and then they never do.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    edited March 25
    The dashboard hasn't been updated yet, but apparently today's Covid death count is down to 63. It's getting better.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,054

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Friend of mine - male, 40s, no health issues, north London - has just been told he’s getting his first dose next week.

    Intriguing. So they’re moving on to the 40s? At least here

    59, still waiting. Sigh.
    I thought you could just go on the NHS website and book?
    Apparently not, in Scotland
    Imagine if it was the other way around, Boris and Hancock would be getting battered pillar to post. The online booking service has been another quiet success, especially given how piss poor normally anything government and IT is.
    I attended an online meeting from my CCG yesterday. They said they are mopping up groups 1-9 and will only have a few thousand to do by next week (out of 250,000). The GP lead clearly said they would then be moving onto the next group. So I think the idea that under-50s won't get invited for jabs until May is premature. It might be done through GP rather than the national website though.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 5,023
    FPT;

    Re: domestic vaccination passports. It seems to me absolutely astonishing (and scary) the seeming blithe acceptance by many of the inevitability of this idea. Labour's position even seems to be that it isn't fair to leave the decision to pubs etc, so it actually has to be made mandatory!

    This would be the biggest imposition on civil liberties in UK history (and don't give me all this - "well if you don't want to go out in public, that's your choice nonsense"). The issue isn't even whether people should be de facto forced into getting vaccinated. What people are talking about is a digital passport which will, in effect, track you whenever you enter a crowded public space. This is beyond even the idea of (paper) ID cards, where at least there is no clear trail of where you've been. It is a severe curtailment of the rights of the vaccinated, as well of those who opt out. Just think what the authorities could do with this if they so wished...

    And i really am struggling to understand what the supposed health benefit payoff is supposed to be. Either the vaccine works, in which case the vast majority of the population being vaccinated means they present no risk to others, and others pose no risk to them. And in the vaccinated numbers we are talking about there would be overwhelming herd immunity preventing any occasional transmission to or from unvaccinated people having no particular effect on public health as a whole. So for those who want to remain unvaccinated, it really is largely a personal choice.

    Or alternatively (god forbid) the vaccines don't work as hoped. In which case the whole point supposed point of a vaccine passport is moot anyway. Is this that somebody has planted a seed in the politicians heads, and nobody lacks the ability to actually think through either the need or the implications.

    If we need them to go abroad, well that's a decision for other countries that we can do little to influence. And that question really is only about the personal choice to get vaccinated, with no additional burden for those who do.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850

    I do wonder if this poll flatters Labour simply for the fact that sixteen and seventeen year olds have the vote in this election.

    As we know soap dodgers students and younger voters often say they vote and then they never do.

    You would've thought that weighting would've taken care of that, surely?
  • Poor chap, I hope they are lenient to him, all he wanted was for the best for his kids, and who can blame him for that?

    A senior Army officer has been found guilty of dishonestly claiming £48,000 for his children's education.

    Maj Gen Nick Welch, 57, claimed to live in London rather than at Blandford Forum, Dorset, near their schools.

    Welch, who left the military in 2018, was convicted of fraud by a panel of senior officers after a four-week trial at Bulford Military Court.

    He is believed to be the most senior officer to be court-martialled since 1815.

    The Continuity of Education Allowance (CEA) allows children to remain at the same schools to enable their serving parent to be accompanied by their spouse as they are posted to different locations.

    However, it cannot be claimed if a soldier's spouse is away from the military home for more than 90 days per year, the court heard.

    During the four-week trial, the prosecution said Welch applied for the allowance on the basis both he and his wife would not be living close to the children.

    But it claimed his wife Charlotte actually spent most of her time at a cottage in Blandford Forum, close to the £37,000-a-year Clayesmore School and the £22,500-a-year Hanford School.

    An investigation was launched after a neighbour told authorities about the family's absence from London.

    Welch denied being dishonest and said his wife was living with him for the majority of the time.

    His barrister, Sarah Jones QC, said the CEA system and the 90-day rule were a "mess" and not strictly enforced.

    A character reference from the former Commander of Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons, said Welch was of "unimpeachable integrity".

    But prosecutor Sarah Clarke QC said he had attempted to manipulate the figures regarding his family's locations to cover up his dishonesty.

    A Ministry of Defence spokeswoman said: "It has been proven in this case that the retired Major General Nicholas Welch OBE did commit fraud and therefore he will be sentenced accordingly."

    He is due to be sentenced on Friday.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-56524730
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337

    I do wonder if this poll flatters Labour simply for the fact that sixteen and seventeen year olds have the vote in this election.

    As we know soap dodgers students and younger voters often say they vote and then they never do.

    You would've thought that weighting would've taken care of that, surely?
    Apart from a lot less young voters will vote with SKS as leader than did when it was Jezza
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 190

    The dashboard hasn't been updated yet, but apparently today's Covid death count is down to 63. It's getting better.

    It is a 30% fall from last week. Cases are up by a very small amount compared to last week. I had been hopeful that cases would start to decline slightly. The increase in cases is all from school kids though who seem to be practically immune. As long as hospitalisations and deaths continue to fall then I think we should be beyond using cases as a key metric.

    Of course, in France with 45K cases/day (likely much higher) that is not the case. They have unfortunately have a very difficult few months to go through just as we did at the beginning of the year. We at least discovered the Kent variant. They knew all about it ahead of time and should have been more prepared.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605

    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.
  • I do wonder if this poll flatters Labour simply for the fact that sixteen and seventeen year olds have the vote in this election.

    As we know soap dodgers students and younger voters often say they vote and then they never do.

    You would've thought that weighting would've taken care of that, surely?
    In my experience of polling the only time and I mean the only time where weighting/turnout filters got it absolutely right (and maybe even underestimated it) for younger voters was the Indyref, on every other occasion it always either just a little below or massively below.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,041
    I’d vote Abolish.

    No idea what they stand for just like the concept.

    ‘What are your policies?’

    ‘Abolition’

    Just abolish everything. Sorted
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,051
    Leon said:

    I’d vote Abolish.

    No idea what they stand for just like the concept.

    ‘What are your policies?’

    ‘Abolition’

    Just abolish everything. Sorted

    Will they also abolish abolition? ;)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376
    As expected, deaths are down while cases are up slightly, probably as a result of schools reopening.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9403145/Britains-daily-Covid-deaths-plunge-63-cases-creep-1-5-6-397.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,041
    This is a story waiting to explode. 100s of migrants crossing the Channel daily. Freely mingling. And they’re coming from Dunkirk which has a terrible problem with the Brazilian and SA variants, right now



    https://twitter.com/olgachristie/status/1374958398278615040?s=21

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    TimT said:

    MattW said:

    I count posts like Yanks count floors.

    Here, 2 basements.

    Or Parking Garage levels
    First can be seventh!

    3
    2
    1
    P3
    P2
    P1
    G
    B1
    B2
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    I demand to be first, I have a contract and everything that says I should always be first.....if you don't allow me to be first I am going to claim OGH is starting a war.

    If you carry on like that, he might...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Even if they did not win, those Yougov numbers would give the Tories their best Senedd performance since it was founded in 1999
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    AlistairM said:

    The dashboard hasn't been updated yet, but apparently today's Covid death count is down to 63. It's getting better.

    It is a 30% fall from last week. Cases are up by a very small amount compared to last week. I had been hopeful that cases would start to decline slightly. The increase in cases is all from school kids though who seem to be practically immune. As long as hospitalisations and deaths continue to fall then I think we should be beyond using cases as a key metric.

    Of course, in France with 45K cases/day (likely much higher) that is not the case. They have unfortunately have a very difficult few months to go through just as we did at the beginning of the year. We at least discovered the Kent variant. They knew all about it ahead of time and should have been more prepared.
    FWIW the seven day average case rate is actually trickling downwards, from 73.2 per 100k on March 1st to 56.0 on March 20th, the most recent publication date for this metric. So it's not going so badly, especially with the amount of time that's now elapsed since the opening of the schools. If letting the entire school-age population out into their petri dishes to mingle hasn't caused cases to explode then the likelihood of at least the March 29th and April 12th stages of unlocking doing likewise must be very low.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 12,698
    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,041
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
    Priti Patel needs to sort this, yesterday
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    Two of those are from the Jurassic - over 150m years ago - and three from the Cretaceous.
    A remarkable breakthrough indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    edited March 25
    Vaccination effect for over 60s I think in play clearly now

    Rolling rate 60+ Peak 08-01-21 484.9 Current 21.1 (96% decrease)
    0 - 59 Peak 04-01-21 748.2 Current 66.3 (91% decrease)

    Doing the vax program this way round was always going to prioritise decreasing deaths over decreasing cases[1]. As the program pushes into younger age groups there should be a more marked effect on cases as prevalence always was higher for younger people.

    [1] Correctly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Leon said:

    This is a story waiting to explode. 100s of migrants crossing the Channel daily. Freely mingling. And they’re coming from Dunkirk which has a terrible problem with the Brazilian and SA variants, right now



    https://twitter.com/olgachristie/status/1374958398278615040?s=21

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    We really need to consider reporting France to the UN, given how many thousand people are claiming that it’s unsafe for them to live there and are prepared to risk their lives in a dinghy to reach the UK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    At this rate it looks like they'll be replacing one Labour-led Government with another Labour-led Government. The main difference will be that it'll be vastly more nationalistic. That'll be fun.

    No it will not
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,922
    Scott_xP said:
    They're up 90 from the equivalent day last week.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    FPT:

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1375135709854580738?s=20
    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1375136120795758598?s=20

    Did the EU ask the UK? As far as I can see the UK has worked constructively with AZN throughout, while the EU has hectored, berated, traduced and tried to bully.

    If you were AZN, who would you want to help?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,575
    edited March 25
    Scott_xP said:
    Positive cases:

    Thursday 11/03 6,753
    Thursday 18/03 6,303
    Thursday 25/03 6,397

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

    The world is full of fuckwits.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,850
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
    Priti Patel needs to sort this, yesterday
    I'm not about to worry about the streets of the Channel ports being awash with unquarantined migrants based on one report from the Daily Mail. As a general principle, however, new arrivals do all need to be locked away in secure accommodation for three weeks before anything else is done with them. I've no idea of the extent to which this is being enforced.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited March 25
    Should I dust off my draft thread header from 15 months ago on why the Sennedd market in 'Tories - most seats' is value?

    It's quite long and detailed, but I was quite pleased with it.

    And oddly, even in light of Covid it doesn't need much tweaking.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    Scott_xP said:
    Positive cases:

    Thursday 11/03 6,753
    Thursday 18/03 6,303
    Thursday 25/03 6,397

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

    The world is full of fuckwits.
    Specimen date vs reporting date again.

    I shall unleash The Demented Lawyer In His Wife's Kimono....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 5,041

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
    Priti Patel needs to sort this, yesterday
    I'm not about to worry about the streets of the Channel ports being awash with unquarantined migrants based on one report from the Daily Mail. As a general principle, however, new arrivals do all need to be locked away in secure accommodation for three weeks before anything else is done with them. I've no idea of the extent to which this is being enforced.
    I don’t think the Daily Mail is lying here. Nor is the report particularly provocative. The fact is we aren’t securing the Anglo-French border properly. We need to quarantine illegal migrants much more securely, and Boris has to start testing hauliers.

    We’re nearly at the finishing line. But one fuck up - importing a load of the SA bug from France - could destroy alll our grinding hard work. This is exceptionally important. Just get a fucking grip, Boris. France is on fire.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,049
    Carnyx said:


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
    Yes, there's a misconception that all the dinosaurs were around at a similar time, but of course the Mesozoic lasted for about 180 million years. Less time separates us from Tyrannosaurus than separated Tyrannosaurus from Stegosaurus.

  • https://www.britainelects.com/2021/03/25/council-by-election-previews-25-march-2021/

    Three byelections today, 2 in Scotland and 1 in Wales.

    Midlothian East, south-east of Edinburgh.
    Almond and Earn, south and west of Perth.
    Llanrug, east of Caenarfon.

    The latter is normally PC unopposed, with 87.8% Welsh speaking based on the 2011 census. Unfortunately it probably will not tell us much about the Senedd elections in May.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    FPT:

    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1375135709854580738?s=20
    https://twitter.com/laurnorman/status/1375136120795758598?s=20

    Did the EU ask the UK? As far as I can see the UK has worked constructively with AZN throughout, while the EU has hectored, berated, traduced and tried to bully.

    If you were AZN, who would you want to help?

    I dunno, they might want to stick something sharp in von der Leyen.

    Or give her lots of needle?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,173
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're up 90 from the equivalent day last week.
    Less than 1.5%

    I was expecting more from the reopening of schools. They seem to be having more of an increase in Ireland following their school reopening. I don't think they're doing as much testing in schools either.

    Must be the vaccine difference.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790
    Carnyx said:


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
    It cannot be worse than Labour
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're up 90 from the equivalent day last week.
    Less than 1.5%

    I was expecting more from the reopening of schools. They seem to be having more of an increase in Ireland following their school reopening. I don't think they're doing as much testing in schools either.

    Must be the vaccine difference.
    It does take a while to show up. Even with massive amounts of testing, it will be a lagging indicator of the real situation with infections.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,107
    edited March 25

    Carnyx said:


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
    Yes, there's a misconception that all the dinosaurs were around at a similar time, but of course the Mesozoic lasted for about 180 million years. Less time separates us from Tyrannosaurus than separated Tyrannosaurus from Stegosaurus.

    That's like the stat that Cleopatra lived closer in time to now than to when the Great Pyramid was built.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,575

    Scott_xP said:
    Positive cases:

    Thursday 11/03 6,753
    Thursday 18/03 6,303
    Thursday 25/03 6,397

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

    The world is full of fuckwits.
    Specimen date vs reporting date again.

    I shall unleash The Demented Lawyer In His Wife's Kimono....
    All three are reported date numbers - its comparing like with like on a week by week basis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're up 90 from the equivalent day last week.
    Less than 1.5%

    I was expecting more from the reopening of schools. They seem to be having more of an increase in Ireland following their school reopening. I don't think they're doing as much testing in schools either.

    Must be the vaccine difference.
    It’s quite surprising how good the schools reopening has been, the extensive testing measures in place seem to have done the trick.

    There was certainly an expectation beforehand, that schoolkids would spread the virus unknowingly between their mostly unvaccinated parents.

    Fingers crossed the opening-up remains on schedule.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
    Yes, there's a misconception that all the dinosaurs were around at a similar time, but of course the Mesozoic lasted for about 180 million years. Less time separates us from Tyrannosaurus than separated Tyrannosaurus from Stegosaurus.

    That's like the stat that Cleopatra lived closer in time to now than to when the Great Pyramid was built.
    I hadn't heard your one before but it is obviously right when you think about it. The Stegosaurus one made me worry about the authenticity of Land Before Time when I heard it. Next I will be getting told that dinosaurs didn't do singing numbers.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,790
    FPT, with apologies but this interests me so please could knowledgeable people comment?

    At the time the blood clots issue arose, there were some remarks on here to the effect that the injection technique mattered with vaccines, that flesh bunched up wasn't so good and flesh stretched out was better.

    This video clearly shows some people using the flesh bunched up technique. So is it really true that bunched up can lead to problems?

    Report from Germany on vaccines...

    https://youtu.be/tPUb9m1kS64

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605
    ydoethur said:

    Should I dust off my draft thread header from 15 months ago on why the Sennedd market in 'Tories - most seats' is value?

    It's quite long and detailed, but I was quite pleased with it.

    And oddly, even in light of Covid it doesn't need much tweaking.

    Did it appear?

    If not -- yes, yes, yes, we want to read it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    Which one is Big G?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    edited March 25
    UK cases by a specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    edited March 25
    UK cases by a specimen date and scaled to 100k population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    edited March 25
    UK local R

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231

    https://www.britainelects.com/2021/03/25/council-by-election-previews-25-march-2021/

    Three byelections today, 2 in Scotland and 1 in Wales.

    Midlothian East, south-east of Edinburgh.
    Almond and Earn, south and west of Perth.
    Llanrug, east of Caenarfon.

    The latter is normally PC unopposed, with 87.8% Welsh speaking based on the 2011 census. Unfortunately it probably will not tell us much about the Senedd elections in May.

    Could be tricky ot interpret the Midlothian one - as with any by election on the Scottish local gmt multi-member slates where the vote is to replace a person who was elected 2nd or 3rd. The SNP person (who has resigned on health grounds) was fourth on FPV in 2017 - Tories and Labour very close together then a well-known local independent. He only got in on transferred votes. I'd be surprised if the SNP keep the seat, even with an improvement in voting, but the independent person is not standing this time so who knows what will happen?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK hospitals

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited March 25

    ydoethur said:

    Should I dust off my draft thread header from 15 months ago on why the Sennedd market in 'Tories - most seats' is value?

    It's quite long and detailed, but I was quite pleased with it.

    And oddly, even in light of Covid it doesn't need much tweaking.

    Did it appear?

    If not -- yes, yes, yes, we want to read it.
    I never had a chance to send it in, I was so busy with other things. Will see if OGH is interested.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK deaths

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  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 1,049
    edited March 25
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
    Yes, there's a misconception that all the dinosaurs were around at a similar time, but of course the Mesozoic lasted for about 180 million years. Less time separates us from Tyrannosaurus than separated Tyrannosaurus from Stegosaurus.

    That's like the stat that Cleopatra lived closer in time to now than to when the Great Pyramid was built.
    I hadn't heard your one before but it is obviously right when you think about it. The Stegosaurus one made me worry about the authenticity of Land Before Time when I heard it. Next I will be getting told that dinosaurs didn't do singing numbers.
    I bet they did "sing"! Birds do...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK R

    from case data

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    from hospitalisation data

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,333
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
    How many were sent back to France before? I would hazard a guess at very few.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Age related data

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:


    Have you seen the Welsh Tories?

    A more complete collection of Stegosaurus, Velociraptors, Triceratops, Diplodocus and Tyrannosaurus has not stalked the Earth for the last 60 million years.

    It is a remarkable breakthrough in palaeontology that Llafur have accomplished.

    Wales is like Jurassic Park.

    Llafur -- with their record of failure, cronyism and corruption since 1999 -- have managed to bring the dinosaurs back to life.

    That's grossly unfair to the dinosaurs. And it's 65 Myr for Tyrannosaurus - Stegosaurus was a lot earlier.
    Yes, there's a misconception that all the dinosaurs were around at a similar time, but of course the Mesozoic lasted for about 180 million years. Less time separates us from Tyrannosaurus than separated Tyrannosaurus from Stegosaurus.

    That's like the stat that Cleopatra lived closer in time to now than to when the Great Pyramid was built.
    I hadn't heard your one before but it is obviously right when you think about it. The Stegosaurus one made me worry about the authenticity of Land Before Time when I heard it. Next I will be getting told that dinosaurs didn't do singing numbers.
    I bet they did "sing"! Birds do...
    That'd imply having a syrinx, no? A quick google produced this which implies otherwise (alas). But obviousloy some uncertainty as to when it evolved.

    https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=189996
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,279
    Evening all :)

    I presume a "surprise" would be the Conservatives getting most votes but I just wonder if the surprise will end there.

    If the numbers work that either Labour +PC or Conservative + PC would command a majority in the Senedd, there seems an assumption only the former is likely.

    I wonder.

    72 hours before the 2010 election, Cameron said he wouldn't do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. That's what politicians say because they want you to vote for them not for someone else. I don't know if Andrew Davies is honestly saying a Welsh Conservative Party he led couldn't work with Plaid but if the opportunity were there to replace Labour and become First Minister, are we saying he wouldn't take it?

    That would be the surprise, a CON/PC Government in Wales.

    I wouldn't rule it out whatever the respective Party leaders are saying now - the temptation of power can be very strong.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    Age related data scaled to 100K population per age group

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,231
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume a "surprise" would be the Conservatives getting most votes but I just wonder if the surprise will end there.

    If the numbers work that either Labour +PC or Conservative + PC would command a majority in the Senedd, there seems an assumption only the former is likely.

    I wonder.

    72 hours before the 2010 election, Cameron said he wouldn't do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. That's what politicians say because they want you to vote for them not for someone else. I don't know if Andrew Davies is honestly saying a Welsh Conservative Party he led couldn't work with Plaid but if the opportunity were there to replace Labour and become First Minister, are we saying he wouldn't take it?

    That would be the surprise, a CON/PC Government in Wales.

    I wouldn't rule it out whatever the respective Party leaders are saying now - the temptation of power can be very strong.

    Or minority, of course. Just throw the Tories or Labour or PC a few sweeties now and then. Happens in Scotland.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    UK vaccinations

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383
    England CFR

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    Scott_xP said:
    12 months and they still don't understand the stats...they people are just morons...even my neighbours kids who are in their early teens understand more.
    {Channeling Cuba Gooding Junior}

    SHOW ME THE RISE!!!! SHOW ME THE RISE!!!

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,575

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
    How many were sent back to France before? I would hazard a guess at very few.
    From January 2020:

    But, while at least 1,890 foreigners reached British shores in small boats last year, the Home Office says only about 125 were returned to European countries during the same period.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50813246
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    Scott_xP said:
    12 months and they still don't understand the stats...they people are just morons...even my neighbours kids who are in their early teens understand more.
    In fairness they are probably being tested 2x a week now that they are back at school so it would be fairly hard to miss.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291

    He's doing well. Can only be the case that he has stolen these doses from the EU surely?
    He has actually banned the ingredients being exported to India, which in turn now cant send the finished doses to the UK.......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,333
    Forget all these media organizations sending all their employees on unconscious bias training, stats 101 seems like a more pressing training course they need to undertake.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 1,319
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    All our year of lockdown and suffering could be rendered pointless. Because we are so pathetically effete about refugees

    You voted for it...

    https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1374765554863575047
    Priti Patel needs to sort this, yesterday
    The eu thing is such a weak excuse. Brexit does not preclude sweeping up everyone from the beach and putting them in a containment centre for processing. At the very least until you’ve given them a pcr test!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    I presume a "surprise" would be the Conservatives getting most votes but I just wonder if the surprise will end there.

    If the numbers work that either Labour +PC or Conservative + PC would command a majority in the Senedd, there seems an assumption only the former is likely.

    I wonder.

    72 hours before the 2010 election, Cameron said he wouldn't do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. That's what politicians say because they want you to vote for them not for someone else. I don't know if Andrew Davies is honestly saying a Welsh Conservative Party he led couldn't work with Plaid but if the opportunity were there to replace Labour and become First Minister, are we saying he wouldn't take it?

    That would be the surprise, a CON/PC Government in Wales.

    I wouldn't rule it out whatever the respective Party leaders are saying now - the temptation of power can be very strong.

    There is no way on God's green earth that Plaid Cymru will go into sole coalition with the Tories. None.

    The Tories and the Liberal Democrats had an awful lot more in common than the Tories would with Plaid.

    Plus, I cannot think of a better way for Plaid to piss off their core vote. They still haven't fully recovered from joining Labour in 2007 and this would be that on speed.

    It could have worked in 2007 with the Yellows as a buffer. But it wouldn't work right now.

    The Tories have to get within about 2 seats of a majority and then insist Labour and Plaid provide the Llywydd and Deputy if they are to take power.

    And that just ain't gonna happen.

    The question really is whether Plaid will go for full coalition with Labour or come to an agreement on confidence and supply. I think the latter would be wiser but the former is slightly more likely depending on what they're offered.

    That might be damaging to both if the Tories are the largest party. But sufficient unto 2026 is the evil thereof.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    UK vaccinations

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    Anyone know why NI is doing so poorly? Almost 10% behind now, best part of 2 weeks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,376

    Forget all these media organizations sending all their employees on unconscious bias training, stats 101 seems like a more pressing training course they need to undertake.

    The lure of "now-ism" is often too strong for journalists, it seems.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,524

    DougSeal said:

    Scott_xP said:
    They're up 90 from the equivalent day last week.
    Less than 1.5%

    I was expecting more from the reopening of schools. They seem to be having more of an increase in Ireland following their school reopening. I don't think they're doing as much testing in schools either.

    Must be the vaccine difference.
    But also, 1.8m tests! Only 1 in 300 testing positive.
    We must be pretty close to the floor of how few positives it is feasible to get.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,383

    Forget all these media organizations sending all their employees on unconscious bias training, stats 101 seems like a more pressing training course they need to undertake.

    I've hired the training guy. He is a bit forthright in his statistical methodology, but I think he might get through the thickest journalists.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsI3fHUOlQM
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,333

    Forget all these media organizations sending all their employees on unconscious bias training, stats 101 seems like a more pressing training course they need to undertake.

    I've hired the training guy. He is a bit forthright in his statistical methodology, but I think he might get through the thickest journalists.....

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsI3fHUOlQM
    I was often on what felt like the end of that after supervisions with my PhD supervisor...not a man who suffered fools like me gladly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    CNN: For all that prominent Brexiteers talked up the idea of London becoming "Singapore-on-Thames" -- a low-tax financial hub that could de-regulate its way to stealing businesses from Europe -- and a giant in global trade, the UK's socio-economic and political systems will probably remain very European for quite some time to come.

    This may seem odd, given the monumental decision Brits took in 2016, backing a campaign to leave the EU led by people like Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson -- free-market capitalists and ardent Euroskeptics.

    Yet while Brits did vote by a majority of 1.3 million to leave the EU, what isn't clear is whether they really wanted to be less European.

    "There are essentially two dimensions to British politics: The left-right divide on economics and [the] liberal-conservative divide on social issues," says Chris Curtis, a pollster at Opinium Research. He explains that among the political classes, these tend to correlate as social conservatives supporting right-wing economics.

    It's much less clear among the general public though.

    "Lots of people voted 'Leave' because they wanted the UK to have more control and they opposed immigration, but they do not support the idea of shrinking the state, deregulating, and lowering standards," Curtis adds. "Many of the leaders of the Brexit movement saw the future of the country differently."

    Britain as a European nation has always been a bit of a paradox.

    On one hand, the public doesn't think of itself as particularly European. On the other, it supports policies which are.
  • Forget all these media organizations sending all their employees on unconscious bias training, stats 101 seems like a more pressing training course they need to undertake.

    I'm in the process of hiring a statistician.

    Some of their CVs and work is something to behold.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,333
    Biden told a massive whopper at the press conference...

    Earlier, Biden said: “There is a significant increase in the number of people coming in the border in the winter months of January, February, March. It happens every year”.

    Except it doesn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Forget all these media organizations sending all their employees on unconscious bias training, stats 101 seems like a more pressing training course they need to undertake.

    I'm in the process of hiring a statistician.

    Some of their CVs and work is something to behold.
    In a good way or a bad way?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,524
    Floater said:
    The term 'white supremacist' seems to be trotted out far, far more often than seems credible. Either there is a massive dose of McCarthyism going on or there has been a linguitic shift such that 'white supracist' now means what 'white person' did ten years ago.
    I simply don't believe there are that many white supremacists around.
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