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The May 6th Welsh Senedd election is starting to look very tight – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Fishing said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No.

    The vaccine itself is the exit route.

    What's the rational reason for requiring a vaccine to go into a pub? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated the NHS is no longer in any danger of collapse. At that point refusing a vaccine is just a personal choice, and a personal risk.

    1. The vaccines won't give 100% protection, just a mere 90+% [if we're lucky]. If everyone going to the venue is vaccinated, you've got the mathematical product of the protection factor for each chain of potential infection (90% protection one stage, 99% two stages, 99.9% three stages, etc); if lots of them aren't, then you've lost that.

    2. The 'non-vulnerable' might still have their lives wrecked by the disease.
    No, it's time to end this way of thinking. We need to get back to normal life, with all the risk-taking that entails.
    One thing that has been interesting is this does not seem to be a left right divide. I never thought I would be on the same side as kinablu or gallowgate for example
    The left-right axis has lost all its potency since COVID 19. I think liberty and safety are more visceral instincts for most people.
    The instinct for liberty in general terms has been confined to a small minority, though many have disregarded instructions they find too annoying. The government's strategy to spread fear has worked only too well.
    I’m hoping the instinct for liberty is dormant, rather than expired!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Fishing said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No.

    The vaccine itself is the exit route.

    What's the rational reason for requiring a vaccine to go into a pub? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated the NHS is no longer in any danger of collapse. At that point refusing a vaccine is just a personal choice, and a personal risk.

    1. The vaccines won't give 100% protection, just a mere 90+% [if we're lucky]. If everyone going to the venue is vaccinated, you've got the mathematical product of the protection factor for each chain of potential infection (90% protection one stage, 99% two stages, 99.9% three stages, etc); if lots of them aren't, then you've lost that.

    2. The 'non-vulnerable' might still have their lives wrecked by the disease.
    No, it's time to end this way of thinking. We need to get back to normal life, with all the risk-taking that entails.
    One thing that has been interesting is this does not seem to be a left right divide. I never thought I would be on the same side as kinablu or gallowgate for example
    The left-right axis has lost all its potency since COVID 19. I think liberty and safety are more visceral instincts for most people.
    The instinct for liberty in general terms has been confined to a small minority, though many have disregarded instructions they find too annoying. The government's strategy to spread fear has worked only too well.
    I am very disappointed in attitudes. Much like the curtain twitching, irrational fear of something that science is going to conquer leading to restricting the liberties of others is a terrible consequence of the last year.


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Fishing said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No.

    The vaccine itself is the exit route.

    What's the rational reason for requiring a vaccine to go into a pub? Once the vulnerable are vaccinated the NHS is no longer in any danger of collapse. At that point refusing a vaccine is just a personal choice, and a personal risk.

    1. The vaccines won't give 100% protection, just a mere 90+% [if we're lucky]. If everyone going to the venue is vaccinated, you've got the mathematical product of the protection factor for each chain of potential infection (90% protection one stage, 99% two stages, 99.9% three stages, etc); if lots of them aren't, then you've lost that.

    2. The 'non-vulnerable' might still have their lives wrecked by the disease.
    No, it's time to end this way of thinking. We need to get back to normal life, with all the risk-taking that entails.
    One thing that has been interesting is this does not seem to be a left right divide. I never thought I would be on the same side as kinablu or gallowgate for example
    The left-right axis has lost all its potency since COVID 19. I think liberty and safety are more visceral instincts for most people.
    The instinct for liberty in general terms has been confined to a small minority, though many have disregarded instructions they find too annoying. The government's strategy to spread fear has worked only too well.
    I’m hoping the instinct for liberty is dormant, rather than expired!
    Interestingly, had a zoom call today with some fellow shop owners. I think any delay to reopening would likely be ignored by some. The idea that it will be MORE complicated to do ANYTHING after the pandemic has disappeared than DURING it is utterly absurd.

    Govt needs to level with people - fear will very soon be entirely unwarranted.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    edited March 2021
    "Coronavirus
    Division 246: held on Thursday 25 March 2021


    Tellers for the Noes

    Mr Alistair Carmichael
    Chris Green


    Members voting No

    Abbott, rh Ms Diane / Afriyie, Adam / Baker, Mr Steve / Baldwin, Harriett / Begum, Apsana
    Blackman, Bob / Bone, Mr Peter / Bradshaw, rh Mr Ben / Brady, Sir Graham / Burgon, Richard
    Butler, Dawn / Campbell, Mr Gregory / Chamberlain, Wendy / Chope, Sir Christopher
    Clifton-Brown, Sir Geoffrey / Cooper, Daisy / Corbyn, rh Jeremy / Davey, rh Ed
    Davies, Philip / Davis, rh Mr David / Djanogly, Mr Jonathan / Donaldson, rh Sir Jeffrey M.
    Drax, Richard / Farron, Tim / Farry, Stephen / Francois, rh Mr Mark
    Fysh, Mr Marcus / Girvan, Paul / Gwynne, Andrew / Harper, rh Mr Mark
    Hobhouse, Wera / Hollobone, Mr Philip / Jardine, Christine / Jones, rh Mr David
    Latham, Mrs Pauline / Lavery, Ian / Lewell-Buck, Mrs Emma / Lewis, Clive
    Lockhart, Carla / Long Bailey, Rebecca / Lord, Mr Jonathan / Loughton, Tim
    Lucas, Caroline / Mackinlay, Craig / McCartney, Karl / McDonnell, rh John
    McPartland, Stephen / McVey, rh Esther / Mearns, Ian / Moran, Layla
    Morris, Anne Marie / Olney, Sarah / Osamor, Kate / Osborne, Kate
    Paisley, Ian / Redwood, rh John / Ribeiro-Addy, Bell / Robinson, Gavin
    Rosindell, Andrew / Smith, Henry / Spellar, rh John / Stone, Jamie
    Stringer, Graham / Sturdy, Julian / Sultana, Zarah / Swayne, rh Sir Desmond
    Syms, Sir Robert / Tracey, Craig / Trickett, Jon / Twigg, Derek / Walker, Sir Charles
    Warburton, David / Wilson, Munira / Wilson, rh Sammy / Winter, Beth / Wragg, Mr William"

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2021-03-25/division/7599821D-1E4C-47CD-A9CC-CB7D40185AFA/Coronavirus?outputType=Names
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Former liberal Democrat mp on China sanctions list.

    That's the real headline, surely?
    Someone notices a lib dem mp.....that should be front page news just so we realise in the uk some exist
    Former LibDem MP. They don't have many actual ones, so there are far more former ones.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,203
    Sandpit said:

    I’m still unconvinced that any suggestion of vaccine passports for pubs can deal with tourists, given that those enforcing rules will be nightclub bouncers rather than customs or immigration officers who understand the documents they look at.

    The whole thing is bollocks, but we all need to tell our MP that we know it’s bollocks.

    If you've flown in you'll have something or other on your phone that will be a vax passport.
    And that will be IATA agreed which is what all the domestic vax passports will likely (perhaps reskinned) follow ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,203
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    I’m still unconvinced that any suggestion of vaccine passports for pubs can deal with tourists, given that those enforcing rules will be nightclub bouncers rather than customs or immigration officers who understand the documents they look at.

    The whole thing is bollocks, but we all need to tell our MP that we know it’s bollocks.

    If you've flown in you'll have something or other on your phone that will be a vax passport.
    And that will be IATA agreed which is what all the domestic vax passports will likely (perhaps reskinned) follow ?
    If the UK gov is smart there'll be a "link" option to the domestic UK passport from an internationally agreed one for tourists
    Like Garmin and Strava
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Just realised the Welsh franchise has been lowered to 16.... how will this affect the voting there? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-56498006 I would imagine a slight rise for the centre-left parties.,,,,,
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,921

    Just realised the Welsh franchise has been lowered to 16.... how will this affect the voting there? https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-56498006 I would imagine a slight rise for the centre-left parties.,,,,,

    That report begins: "For the first time in Wales' history, 70,000 16 and 17-year-olds will help decide who sits in the Welsh Parliament, after the voting age was lowered."

    For the first time in Wales' history, and since devolution just two decades back, which is a less portentous way of putting it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    alex_ said:

    AstraZeneca lost £21 BILLION in profits from selling Covid vaccine cheaply...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9404353/AstraZeneca-lost-21-BILLION-profits-selling-Covid-vaccine-cheaply.html

    And all we got was this shitty t-shirt hail of smears and abuse.

    Highly misleading though. They never had the option of selling it more expensively. Selling it at cost was the price they paid to have a vaccine at all.
    Actually totally dishonest. If this is an attempt by AZ to counter all the bad publicity it's going to be counter productive. Better to address the incompetence that has led to one bungle after another.

    Or are they saying, if you had allowed us to make more money we wouldn't have made so many screw ups?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    This is bullying of the most basic and obvious kind - I hope it leads to tougher action by the West as a result, as bullied only understand one thing:

    "China has gone for the people exerting the most pressure on Boris Johnson to be tough on China.

    It's gone for the people who say "genocide" has happened in Xinjiang.

    The measures are essentially tokenistic - it's unlikely these people or entities did any business with Chinese firms or people anyway.

    Targeting Neil O'Brien is personal for the UK prime minister. The MP is in charge of leading policy in Downing Street.

    Going after Essex Court Chambers - a firm set up by self-employed barristers - for a legal opinion it reached also shows you how China views an independent judicial system. It doesn't believe in them."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56532569
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Andy_JS said:

    "Coronavirus
    Division 246: held on Thursday 25 March 2021


    Tellers for the Noes

    Mr Alistair Carmichael
    Chris Green


    Members voting No

    Abbott, rh Ms Diane / Afriyie, Adam / Baker, Mr Steve / Baldwin, Harriett / Begum, Apsana
    Blackman, Bob / Bone, Mr Peter / Bradshaw, rh Mr Ben / Brady, Sir Graham / Burgon, Richard
    Butler, Dawn / Campbell, Mr Gregory / Chamberlain, Wendy / Chope, Sir Christopher
    Clifton-Brown, Sir Geoffrey / Cooper, Daisy / Corbyn, rh Jeremy / Davey, rh Ed
    Davies, Philip / Davis, rh Mr David / Djanogly, Mr Jonathan / Donaldson, rh Sir Jeffrey M.
    Drax, Richard / Farron, Tim / Farry, Stephen / Francois, rh Mr Mark
    Fysh, Mr Marcus / Girvan, Paul / Gwynne, Andrew / Harper, rh Mr Mark
    Hobhouse, Wera / Hollobone, Mr Philip / Jardine, Christine / Jones, rh Mr David
    Latham, Mrs Pauline / Lavery, Ian / Lewell-Buck, Mrs Emma / Lewis, Clive
    Lockhart, Carla / Long Bailey, Rebecca / Lord, Mr Jonathan / Loughton, Tim
    Lucas, Caroline / Mackinlay, Craig / McCartney, Karl / McDonnell, rh John
    McPartland, Stephen / McVey, rh Esther / Mearns, Ian / Moran, Layla
    Morris, Anne Marie / Olney, Sarah / Osamor, Kate / Osborne, Kate
    Paisley, Ian / Redwood, rh John / Ribeiro-Addy, Bell / Robinson, Gavin
    Rosindell, Andrew / Smith, Henry / Spellar, rh John / Stone, Jamie
    Stringer, Graham / Sturdy, Julian / Sultana, Zarah / Swayne, rh Sir Desmond
    Syms, Sir Robert / Tracey, Craig / Trickett, Jon / Twigg, Derek / Walker, Sir Charles
    Warburton, David / Wilson, Munira / Wilson, rh Sammy / Winter, Beth / Wragg, Mr William"

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2021-03-25/division/7599821D-1E4C-47CD-A9CC-CB7D40185AFA/Coronavirus?outputType=Names

    DUP, Green and LDs against, the ERG ultras and Corbynite wing of Labour against, but also a handful of unusual suspects in there.

    I think barely 300 Tory MPs voted for it, which isn't a sign of a happy ship.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227

    Andy_JS said:

    Why don't we just ramp up the jab programme, get half a million vaccinated every day for the next 65 days, and then everyone will be covered. No need for vaccine passports. End lockdown. Foreign travel might be possible to countries that have been proven not to have any troublesome variants.

    Not enough supply....
    I don't think I believe that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227

    This is bullying of the most basic and obvious kind - I hope it leads to tougher action by the West as a result, as bullied only understand one thing:

    "China has gone for the people exerting the most pressure on Boris Johnson to be tough on China.

    It's gone for the people who say "genocide" has happened in Xinjiang.

    The measures are essentially tokenistic - it's unlikely these people or entities did any business with Chinese firms or people anyway.

    Targeting Neil O'Brien is personal for the UK prime minister. The MP is in charge of leading policy in Downing Street.

    Going after Essex Court Chambers - a firm set up by self-employed barristers - for a legal opinion it reached also shows you how China views an independent judicial system. It doesn't believe in them."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56532569

    As we know, we are back in a different form of ideological Cold War.

    I wonder if is time to reconsider SEATO. But I think things are going that way anyway.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Some unhappy Tories in the Commons yesterday. And not because they now can't go to China.
This discussion has been closed.