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May 2021 election benchmarks – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 20 in General
May 2021 election benchmarks – politicalbetting.com

Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First, and thank you Mr Cowling/Mike
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    Excellent stuff.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    Cases still falling:


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    Surprised not to have seen wars between supportes of Projected National Share or National Equivalent Vote Share.

    And the Press Association measure gains from the current status rather than when contested 4 years previously? Monsters. I will definitely be a Rallings/Thrasher man.

    Tories really have done pretty well for the 10 years they have been in government. With 2019 possibly an aberration in how bad it was, their expectations management should be pretty easy, but then people expect a lot from them given polling.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035
    Thank you for the header, David.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969
    @MattW has looked into something in worrying detail on the last thread. Is there something you wish to share?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,357
    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always puzzled me that Latin vanished. It must have been quite a thing to have been able to travel around the Roman Empire and converse in a common tongue. Obviously there were lots of other languages at the time too. Just weird that all that convenience was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,528
    kle4 said:

    Surprised not to have seen wars between supportes of Projected National Share or National Equivalent Vote Share.

    And the Press Association measure gains from the current status rather than when contested 4 years previously? Monsters. I will definitely be a Rallings/Thrasher man.

    Tories really have done pretty well for the 10 years they have been in government. With 2019 possibly an aberration in how bad it was, their expectations management should be pretty easy, but then people expect a lot from them given polling.

    The 2019LE really weren't bad for the Conservatives despite some fools on PB claiming it was the equivalent of 1995.

    To me the noticeable thing is the failure of the LibDems to recover from their time in government.

    From 1991 to 2010 they were between 20% and 30% in local elections.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,291
    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always puzzled me that Latin vanished. It must have been quite a thing to have been able to travel around the Roman Empire and converse in a common tongue. Obviously there were lots of other languages at the time too. Just weird that all that convenience was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    Superb header - thank you Mr Cowling, a model of clarity and lucid explanation.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    Gateshead has a lower UTLA rate than Northumberland. :D
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    The dispute was described by Defense One as follows: “some Germans think the French want to build a French airplane with German money, while some French think the Germans want to steal trade secrets and build a weapon of their own”- and French media has been trashing Germany’s motives in relation to the project.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/europes-sixth-generation fighter-trouble-180594
  • England aren't going to win this t20 match.

    FACT!
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,583

    The dispute was described by Defense One as follows: “some Germans think the French want to build a French airplane with German money, while some French think the Germans want to steal trade secrets and build a weapon of their own”- and French media has been trashing Germany’s motives in relation to the project.

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/europes-sixth-generation fighter-trouble-180594

    Time for Harry:



  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 5,357
    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always puzzled me that Latin vanished. It must have been quite a thing to have been able to travel around the Roman Empire and converse in a common tongue. Obviously there were lots of other languages at the time too. Just weird that all that convenience was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
    Yes all good points and nobody else seems much surprised. I don't find it surprising that other languages have changed so much - they really had little linguistic capital invested. But for a language to have vanished that was the principal written language at the time seems odd.

    There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,491
    edited March 20
    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798

    Cases still falling:


    The death rate is still collapsing, thank goodness. Given that this is a weekday value, we'll hopefully see numbers well short even of that for the next couple of days.

    The seven day rolling average for the case rate seems essentially flat and has done since just before the schools came back, so I'm not quite sure where the modest drop in total case numbers comes from. The local authority map certainly seems to have seized up.

    My local district: 44 positive tests and no deaths in the last week.

    Total vaccine uptake for all adults in the UK: 51% first dose, 4% second dose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Having looked, I am glad that the news site describing the story included the detail of what he said that offended, as too often it is left out so it's hard to know how offended we are actually supposed to be.
  • Wings has been on about this for a while, and it's potentially a huge timebomb. The SNP is almost broke and nobody outside the Sturgeon-Murrell clique knows where the money went, including some £600,000 donated by indy supporters to a 'ringfenced' fund for fighting another indyref.
  • kle4 said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Having looked, I am glad that the news site describing the story included the detail of what he said that offended, as too often it is left out so it's hard to know how offended we are actually supposed to be.
    I'm surprised Matt Le Tissier isn't trending.

    The coward has set it up so nobody can reply to his idiocy.

    https://twitter.com/mattletiss7/status/1372522338600812546
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142

    Wings has been on about this for a while, and it's potentially a huge timebomb. The SNP is almost broke and nobody outside the Sturgeon-Murrell clique knows where the money went, including some £600,000 donated by indy supporters to a 'ringfenced' fund for fighting another indyref.
    Enough people support Sindy it seems like it would be pretty easy to find a single mega doner to shore things up if they got into serious difficulty.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    Just listened to the news on BBC Radio 6 music for the first time ever. You do something new every day, however small.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218
    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always ce was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
    Yes all good points and nobody else seems much surprised. I don't find it surprising that other languages have changed so much - they really had little linguistic capital invested. But for a language to have vanished that was the principal written language at the time seems odd.

    There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
    Almost no one would have spoken the Latin we learn at school, outside of formal occasions, like debates in the Senate. It was very much a literary language. Most Italians would have spoken local languages like Samnian, Oscan, Greek (in Sicily and the South), or various Celtic tongues, further North, or Vulgar, a very rough, abbreviated form of Latin.

    It's similar to Greek. The Greek we learn is the literary language of Athens in the Fifth Century. It is very different, for example to the Common tongue, which the New Testmant is written in.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,943

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Was it the single use plastic, nob joke that offended?

    If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    kle4 said:

    Wings has been on about this for a while, and it's potentially a huge timebomb. The SNP is almost broke and nobody outside the Sturgeon-Murrell clique knows where the money went, including some £600,000 donated by indy supporters to a 'ringfenced' fund for fighting another indyref.
    Enough people support Sindy it seems like it would be pretty easy to find a single mega doner to shore things up if they got into serious difficulty.
    They did - Colin Weir a EuroMillions winner - but he died, I'm not sure if his estate continues to support the SNP:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50930002
  • kle4 said:

    Enough people support Sindy it seems like it would be pretty easy to find a single mega doner to shore things up if they got into serious difficulty.

    Maybe, but far from guaranteed given that big donors refusing to give the party any more money is one of the reasons they're in this mess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    I do apologise for that.

    I foolishly thought, having finished my painting for today, I would put the cricket on.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    ydoethur said:

    I do apologise for that.

    I foolishly thought, having finished my painting for today, I would put the cricket on.

    It was both of us. I cracked and went to the loo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    It’s a good job Bairstow is in such excellent form.

    Well - form.

    Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,691
    ydoethur said:

    I do apologise for that.

    I foolishly thought, having finished my painting for today, I would put the cricket on.

    Off to con home with you...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,491
    edited March 20

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Was it the single use plastic, nob joke that offended?

    If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
    There's this meme some incels and other like to promulgate this belief/theory that all women need is 'cock' to make them better/less of a harridan.

    The fact the subject of his ire is someone who has just turned 18 makes it creepy as it is unfunny and the fact that condoms are not made out of plastic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    Kohli has hissy fit.

    Dock India 50 runs NOW!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    edited March 20
    Kolhi is an absolute cock. Hopefully he tries that crap with Stokes and he gets laid out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    ydoethur said:

    It’s a good job Bairstow is in such excellent form.

    Well - form.

    Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.

    Don't understand why Stokes isn't in now to club 50 off 30 balls. Stupid decision.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560

    Just back from my jab. Lots of middle aged people doing the same, in and out very rapidly.

    If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.

    --AS

    Some think those at greatest (but essentially still minisculely trivial) risk are young women either pregnant or on the pill (who are proportionately most likely to get a blood clot in the first place) - do either of those apply?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s a good job Bairstow is in such excellent form.

    Well - form.

    Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.

    Don't understand why Stokes isn't in now to club 50 off 30 balls. Stupid decision.
    He’s never hit a 50 in T20s.
  • Kolhi is an absolute cock. Hopefully he tries that crap with Stokes and he gets laid out.

    Makes Divvie's comment on the previous thread look even more funny.

    If you're going to use cricket to bash the English pick the correct cricketer, you might have as well used David Warner.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    @Sandpit

    Why did you have to post that on PT? Now they can hardly get the ball off the square...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    Bhuvneshwar surely MOTM here. He's won this for India.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK local R

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s a good job Bairstow is in such excellent form.

    Well - form.

    Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.

    Don't understand why Stokes isn't in now to club 50 off 30 balls. Stupid decision.
    He’s never hit a 50 in T20s.
    40 in 20 balls then, either way, just someone with a destructive strike rate. RR is now 14 per over, that needs two batsmen who can hit at over 200, Stokes is someone who can do that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases summary

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    edited March 20
    Bairstow you muppet.
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s a good job Bairstow is in such excellent form.

    Well - form.

    Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.

    Don't understand why Stokes isn't in now to club 50 off 30 balls. Stupid decision.
    He’s never hit a 50 in T20s.
    40 in 20 balls then, either way, just someone with a destructive strike rate. RR is now 14 per over, that needs two batsmen who can hit at over 200, Stokes is someone who can do that.
    maybe you’re about to get your wish.

    Edit - no, Morgan, who is in fact the man I would have sent in at 4.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK hospitals

    image
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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,943

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Was it the single use plastic, nob joke that offended?

    If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
    There's this meme some incels and other like to promulgate this belief/theory that all women need is 'cock' to make them better/less of a harridan.

    The fact the subject of his ire is someone who has just turned 18 makes it creepy as it is unfunny and the fact that condoms are not made out of plastic.
    Isn't it wokery to not laugh heartily at Lee Hurst's brand of unfunny, misogynistic, anti-PC bollocks?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437

    kle4 said:

    Surprised not to have seen wars between supportes of Projected National Share or National Equivalent Vote Share.

    And the Press Association measure gains from the current status rather than when contested 4 years previously? Monsters. I will definitely be a Rallings/Thrasher man.

    Tories really have done pretty well for the 10 years they have been in government. With 2019 possibly an aberration in how bad it was, their expectations management should be pretty easy, but then people expect a lot from them given polling.

    The 2019LE really weren't bad for the Conservatives despite some fools on PB claiming it was the equivalent of 1995.

    To me the noticeable thing is the failure of the LibDems to recover from their time in government.

    From 1991 to 2010 they were between 20% and 30% in local elections.
    I think that's a little harsh: the LDs saw their vote share increase markedly in 2017 and 2018, it's just that the Conservative vote share increased more. They ended up with more votes and fewer seats (a little like the 2019 General Election).

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969
    Sean_F said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always ce was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
    Yes all good points and nobody else seems much surprised. I don't find it surprising that other languages have changed so much - they really had little linguistic capital invested. But for a language to have vanished that was the principal written language at the time seems odd.

    There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
    Almost no one would have spoken the Latin we learn at school, outside of formal occasions, like debates in the Senate. It was very much a literary language. Most Italians would have spoken local languages like Samnian, Oscan, Greek (in Sicily and the South), or various Celtic tongues, further North, or Vulgar, a very rough, abbreviated form of Latin.

    It's similar to Greek. The Greek we learn is the literary language of Athens in the Fifth Century. It is very different, for example to the Common tongue, which the New Testmant is written in.
    As I have previously mentioned, my mentor discovered this when he gave a speech to the Inter-Parliamentary Union in Athens...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK deaths

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    edited March 20
    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    It seems he has had his twitter suspended for it...like really....its a poor joke and that's about it. Its hardly Bernard Manning doing some p##i joke.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,583
    Sean_F said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always ce was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
    Yes all good points and nobody else seems much surprised. I don't find it surprising that other languages have changed so much - they really had little linguistic capital invested. But for a language to have vanished that was the principal written language at the time seems odd.

    There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
    Almost no one would have spoken the Latin we learn at school, outside of formal occasions, like debates in the Senate. It was very much a literary language. Most Italians would have spoken local languages like Samnian, Oscan, Greek (in Sicily and the South), or various Celtic tongues, further North, or Vulgar, a very rough, abbreviated form of Latin.

    It's similar to Greek. The Greek we learn is the literary language of Athens in the Fifth Century. It is very different, for example to the Common tongue, which the New Testmant is written in.
    A surprising amount of spoken Spanish - albeit even more written - is near identical to the Latin I did to O Level. The conjugation of verbs being the most obvious.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK R

    from cases

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    from hospitalisations

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Age related data

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  • Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    It seems he has had his twitter suspended for it...like really....its a poor joke and that's about it. Its hardly Bernard Manning doing some p##i joke.
    He's been consistently on the Covid-19 denial front.

    But he lost his crap at the time when this story was revealed.

    https://twitter.com/TheKateMcK/status/1372962804462936065
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,583

    Just back from my jab. Lots of middle aged people doing the same, in and out very rapidly.

    If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.

    --AS

    Some think those at greatest (but essentially still minisculely trivial) risk are young women either pregnant or on the pill (who are proportionately most likely to get a blood clot in the first place) - do either of those apply?
    If you read the Spanish press almost the entire Guardia civil are succumbing...
  • AlwaysSingingAlwaysSinging Posts: 366

    Just back from my jab. Lots of middle aged people doing the same, in and out very rapidly.

    If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.

    --AS

    Some think those at greatest (but essentially still minisculely trivial) risk are young women either pregnant or on the pill (who are proportionately most likely to get a blood clot in the first place) - do either of those apply?
    No, but I have already suffered one 1-in-a-million side effect of a routine medical procedure in my life so...

    (I'm not genuinely concerned.)

    --AS
  • Okay, time to switch over to the rugby.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Age related data - scaled to 100K population per age group

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376

    Okay, time to switch over to the rugby.

    Will you finally be supporting Wales this week :smile:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    felix said:

    Just back from my jab. Lots of middle aged people doing the same, in and out very rapidly.

    If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.

    --AS

    Some think those at greatest (but essentially still minisculely trivial) risk are young women either pregnant or on the pill (who are proportionately most likely to get a blood clot in the first place) - do either of those apply?
    If you read the Spanish press almost the entire Guardia civil are succumbing...
    Ummm - to Covid, to blood clots or to pregnancy?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 14,112
    I imagine the Police are going to violently arrest the anti-vax anti-lockdown guys in London today?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    edited March 20
    Game over.....definitely now....its the hope that kills you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK vaccinations

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  • ydoethur said:

    Okay, time to switch over to the rugby.

    Will you finally be supporting Wales this week :smile:
    Never, I'll cheer for Al Qaeda XV or Australia than for Wales.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    ydoethur said:

    Bairstow you muppet.

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s a good job Bairstow is in such excellent form.

    Well - form.

    Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.

    Don't understand why Stokes isn't in now to club 50 off 30 balls. Stupid decision.
    He’s never hit a 50 in T20s.
    40 in 20 balls then, either way, just someone with a destructive strike rate. RR is now 14 per over, that needs two batsmen who can hit at over 200, Stokes is someone who can do that.
    maybe you’re about to get your wish.

    Edit - no, Morgan, who is in fact the man I would have sent in at 4.
    Didn't take long.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    NEW

    England CFR

    image
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    edited March 20

    Kolhi is an absolute cock. Hopefully he tries that crap with Stokes and he gets laid out.

    Makes Divvie's comment on the previous thread look even more funny.

    If you're going to use cricket to bash the English pick the correct cricketer, you might have as well used David Warner.
    My point was that the comment wouldn't have been made when India were 8-0. The Ibrox lot are probably the only fans more likely to have a good whinge in the face of adversity. Ok, Celtic fans also, maybe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    edited March 20

    Game over.....definitely now....its the hope that kills you.

    Three four reckless shots.

    Don’t know what happened to Roy but the fact is the other batsmen have thrown away their wickets.

    Since I tuned in, annoyingly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    ydoethur said:

    Game over.....definitely now....its the hope that kills you.

    Three four reckless shots.

    Don’t know what happened to Roy but the fact is the other batsmen have thrown away their wickets.

    Since I tuned in, annoyingly.
    I still think we should have another batsman, like Billings or Hales. I think Curran has bowled a total of 4 overs in 3 matches.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402

    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    It seems he has had his twitter suspended for it...like really....its a poor joke and that's about it. Its hardly Bernard Manning doing some p##i joke.
    It's not like he insulted a flag.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,381
    edited March 20
    ydoethur said:

    Game over.....definitely now....its the hope that kills you.

    Three four reckless shots.

    Don’t know what happened to Roy but the fact is the other batsmen have thrown away their wickets.

    Since I tuned in, annoyingly.
    Its scoreboard pressure and the need for boundaries. The batsmen have no choice. England conceded about 50 more runs than they could afford. Its unfair to blame the batsmen for this.

    Edit. Excellent bowling as well in fairness. Bhuvneshwar especially.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,943

    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    It seems he has had his twitter suspended for it...like really....its a poor joke and that's about it. Its hardly Bernard Manning doing some p##i joke.
    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    "Hardly Bernard Manning" and " not grossly offensive"????

    OK, come clean, which one of you is the Labour Party candidate for the forthcoming Hartlepool by-election?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Was it the single use plastic, nob joke that offended?

    If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
    There's this meme some incels and other like to promulgate this belief/theory that all women need is 'cock' to make them better/less of a harridan.

    The fact the subject of his ire is someone who has just turned 18 makes it creepy as it is unfunny and the fact that condoms are not made out of plastic.
    Isn't that a very very ancient piece of misogny? "All the screeching woman needs is a husband"

    I'm pretty sure that the theme crops up in plays from the ancient world, for example.
  • Kolhi is an absolute cock. Hopefully he tries that crap with Stokes and he gets laid out.

    Makes Divvie's comment on the previous thread look even more funny.

    If you're going to use cricket to bash the English pick the correct cricketer, you might have as well used David Warner.
    My point was that the comment wouldn't have been made when India were 8-0. The Ibrox lot are probably the only fans more likely to have a good whinge in the face of adversity. Ok, Celtic fans also maybe.
    Oh it would get made, Kohli's a cock, he always gets grief for his behaviour, whether England are winning or losing.

    Same for the violent thug and cheat David Warner, and the cheat Steve Smith.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,583
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Just back from my jab. Lots of middle aged people doing the same, in and out very rapidly.

    If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.

    --AS

    Some think those at greatest (but essentially still minisculely trivial) risk are young women either pregnant or on the pill (who are proportionately most likely to get a blood clot in the first place) - do either of those apply?
    If you read the Spanish press almost the entire Guardia civil are succumbing...
    Ummm - to Covid, to blood clots or to pregnancy?
    Clots you clutz!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,927
    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always ce was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
    Yes all good points and nobody else seems much surprised. I don't find it surprising that other languages have changed so much - they really had little linguistic capital invested. But for a language to have vanished that was the principal written language at the time seems odd.

    There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
    Almost no one would have spoken the Latin we learn at school, outside of formal occasions, like debates in the Senate. It was very much a literary language. Most Italians would have spoken local languages like Samnian, Oscan, Greek (in Sicily and the South), or various Celtic tongues, further North, or Vulgar, a very rough, abbreviated form of Latin.

    It's similar to Greek. The Greek we learn is the literary language of Athens in the Fifth Century. It is very different, for example to the Common tongue, which the New Testmant is written in.
    A surprising amount of spoken Spanish - albeit even more written - is near identical to the Latin I did to O Level. The conjugation of verbs being the most obvious.
    Even where it is not identical you can often see the connection - e.g. hoy/hodie.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402

    Kolhi is an absolute cock. Hopefully he tries that crap with Stokes and he gets laid out.

    Makes Divvie's comment on the previous thread look even more funny.

    If you're going to use cricket to bash the English pick the correct cricketer, you might have as well used David Warner.
    My point was that the comment wouldn't have been made when India were 8-0. The Ibrox lot are probably the only fans more likely to have a good whinge in the face of adversity. Ok, Celtic fans also maybe.
    Oh it would get made, Kohli's a cock, he always gets grief for his behaviour, whether England are winning or losing.

    Same for the violent thug and cheat David Warner, and the cheat Steve Smith.
    Tenacious grudge holding is also something I associate with the Old Firm. Though come to think of it the grudge held against Maradona for incident X probably beats them all into a hat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    Well, England got half way to the total quickly enough, but completely failed to follow through.

    Up to the rugger boys now, to save English face today.
  • I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Was it the single use plastic, nob joke that offended?

    If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
    There's this meme some incels and other like to promulgate this belief/theory that all women need is 'cock' to make them better/less of a harridan.

    The fact the subject of his ire is someone who has just turned 18 makes it creepy as it is unfunny and the fact that condoms are not made out of plastic.
    Isn't that a very very ancient piece of misogny? "All the screeching woman needs is a husband"

    I'm pretty sure that the theme crops up in plays from the ancient world, for example.
    It is, but this newer misogyny has very aggressive overtones.

    Go and find a nice man to love and marry is a little bit more benign than 'she needs some cock to make her a better person'
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560

    Just back from my jab. Lots of middle aged people doing the same, in and out very rapidly.

    If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.

    --AS

    Some think those at greatest (but essentially still minisculely trivial) risk are young women either pregnant or on the pill (who are proportionately most likely to get a blood clot in the first place) - do either of those apply?
    (I'm not genuinely concerned.)

    --AS
    Me neither - jabbed today - no side effects so far, apart from feeling slightly squiffy, which is also a well known side effect of gin, of which I have also indulged.

    Many moons ago at University I studied Chemistry, and in those days the "go to" reference book on chemicals and the side effects of their ingestion was a huge tome produced by the "International Rubber Company" affectionately known as "The Rubber Bible". This languidly observed that "the side effects of the ingestion of ethanol (alcohol) are so well known they require no repeating here." I fear today a much less sanguine report will be found.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    ydoethur said:

    @Sandpit

    Why did you have to post that on PT? Now they can hardly get the ball off the square...

    Yeah, perfect timing, whoops.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    rcs1000 said:

    I'd just like to lay off the EU (as an entity) for the moment, and lay into the individual member states.

    To my mind they've made three appalling, and entirely avoidable, mistakes.

    (1) Most are holding supplied back for second doses. This makes literally no sense. In the (unlikely) event supply went to zero, your country would still be in a much better position having 100 half vaccinated, rather than 50 waiting vaccinated and waiting on their second dose.

    (2) All are following manufacturer guidelines rather than maximising first doses. Now, I can understand why you would want to choose to get an 78 year old diabetic their second dose before a fit 23 year old. But the diminution in cases, hospitalisations and transmission is surely much better by maximising first doses.

    (3) Most also feel that they need to placate anti-vaxxers. Not a single CV19 vaccine has a positive net approval in France. And while AZ is the worse, Moderna, J&J and Pfizer are all underwater too. Utter insanity. Me? If you miss your place in the vaccince queue, we give it to someone who does want the vaccine. Fuck refuseniks and get jabs in arms. The more people protected, the better.

    Point 3 would require a French politician to display moral courage.

    When was the last time that happened?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969
    rcs1000 said:

    Fuck refuseniks and get jabs in arms. The more people protected, the better.

    You realise that refuseniks are disproportionately women in the 20-35 age bracket right?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    That’s a good joke, misunderstood by millions who have seemingly lost their sense of humour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,951
    Fascinating analysis.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,376
    Sandpit said:

    Well, England got half way to the total quickly enough, but completely failed to follow through.

    Up to the rugger boys now, to save English face today.

    If Ireland win as well, we’ll all have to be very kind to @TSE. Hat trick of misery.
  • ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well, England got half way to the total quickly enough, but completely failed to follow through.

    Up to the rugger boys now, to save English face today.

    If Ireland win as well, we’ll all have to be very kind to @TSE. Hat trick of misery.
    I've got another potential (and expensive) misery coming up soon.

    If Everton beat the Oil Tycoons this evening I'm going to be £200 down.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969

    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    It seems he has had his twitter suspended for it...like really....its a poor joke and that's about it. Its hardly Bernard Manning doing some p##i joke.
    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    "Hardly Bernard Manning" and " not grossly offensive"????

    OK, come clean, which one of you is the Labour Party candidate for the forthcoming Hartlepool by-election?
    I didn't see the original tweet so relying on kentonline (which always seems to do surprising well on my google searches).

    As I understand it, he suggested that an 18-year old single woman is likely to (a) like sex and (b) prefer to use contraception rather than abstain or risk pregnancy. He then suggested that this preference would take precedent over her environmental beliefs.

    I have no insight into the individual's preference, but I would assume that the above statements would be accurate if applied to the vast majority of 18 year old women.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,951
    Sean_F said:

    Omnium said:

    TimT said:

    Omnium said:

    Re header: Great to have this information collected together. Some incredible leads in those numbers (25%!)

    FPT:

    Omnium said:

    Mr. Eagles, you drunken baboon. The city of Carthage showed surprising valour and competence when it was besieged in the Third Punic War, in stark contrast to earlier contests that may have yielded different results had it not been for the antics of the Peace Party of Hanno.

    So competent that they were wiped off the face of the earth.
    Carthage merely turned into modern-day Tunis. After all, no one speaks Latin any more (except for Vatican City... and pretentious people...).
    It's always ce was discarded by everyone.
    As I understand it, Latin didn't perish so much as evolve and blend into its surroundings, after the Roman political entity disintegrated. It's where all the Romance family of languages came from.
    Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
    Think of how other languages have evolved in the same time period. Old English to modern English is pretty much unrecognizable - we'd even have problems understanding someone speaking fluently in Middle English. Arabic was not standardized until relatively late on, and even so, most Arabs would not understand the language spoken in some of the Ithna'shar villages in Yemen's coastal mountain tops, which is recognized as barely evolved for about 1000 years.
    Yes all good points and nobody else seems much surprised. I don't find it surprising that other languages have changed so much - they really had little linguistic capital invested. But for a language to have vanished that was the principal written language at the time seems odd.

    There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
    Almost no one would have spoken the Latin we learn at school, outside of formal occasions, like debates in the Senate. It was very much a literary language. Most Italians would have spoken local languages like Samnian, Oscan, Greek (in Sicily and the South), or various Celtic tongues, further North, or Vulgar, a very rough, abbreviated form of Latin.

    It's similar to Greek. The Greek we learn is the literary language of Athens in the Fifth Century. It is very different, for example to the Common tongue, which the New Testmant is written in.
    And, no-one spoke like Dr. Johnson who famously said: "Well, I simply observed, sir, that I'm felicitous since during the course of the penultimate solar sojourn, I terminated my uninterrupted categorisation of the vocabulary of our post-Norman tongue."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,951
    Charles said:

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    It's not very funny... but it's not grossly offensive... just suggests that the individual is a normal young woman with all the rights and freedoms that entails
    I've seen far worse jokes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    I really wish I hadn't looked at why Lee Hurst is trending.

    Was it the single use plastic, nob joke that offended?

    If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
    There's this meme some incels and other like to promulgate this belief/theory that all women need is 'cock' to make them better/less of a harridan.

    The fact the subject of his ire is someone who has just turned 18 makes it creepy as it is unfunny and the fact that condoms are not made out of plastic.
    Isn't that a very very ancient piece of misogny? "All the screeching woman needs is a husband"

    I'm pretty sure that the theme crops up in plays from the ancient world, for example.
    It is, but this newer misogyny has very aggressive overtones.

    Go and find a nice man to love and marry is a little bit more benign than 'she needs some cock to make her a better person'
    Yes - I was just thinking that if you are regurgitating 2.5K year old bigotry, you have no imagination. As well as being a bigot.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,784
    rcs1000 said:

    I'd just like to lay off the EU (as an entity) for the moment, and lay into the individual member states.

    To my mind they've made three appalling, and entirely avoidable, mistakes.

    (1) Most are holding supplied back for second doses. This makes literally no sense. In the (unlikely) event supply went to zero, your country would still be in a much better position having 100 half vaccinated, rather than 50 waiting vaccinated and waiting on their second dose.

    (2) All are following manufacturer guidelines rather than maximising first doses. Now, I can understand why you would want to choose to get an 78 year old diabetic their second dose before a fit 23 year old. But the diminution in cases, hospitalisations and transmission is surely much better by maximising first doses.

    (3) Most also feel that they need to placate anti-vaxxers. Not a single CV19 vaccine has a positive net approval in France. And while AZ is the worse, Moderna, J&J and Pfizer are all underwater too. Utter insanity. Me? If you miss your place in the vaccince queue, we give it to someone who does want the vaccine. Fuck refuseniks and get jabs in arms. The more people protected, the better.

    In (3) do you mean refusers are in effect holding up the queue, perhaps by their doses being reserved for them even if they've said No thanks?
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