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May 2021 election benchmarks – politicalbetting.com
May 2021 election benchmarks – politicalbetting.com
Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results.
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And the Press Association measure gains from the current status rather than when contested 4 years previously? Monsters. I will definitely be a Rallings/Thrasher man.
Tories really have done pretty well for the 10 years they have been in government. With 2019 possibly an aberration in how bad it was, their expectations management should be pretty easy, but then people expect a lot from them given polling.
FPT: Yep. I'm sure you're right, but still odd in my view.
To me the noticeable thing is the failure of the LibDems to recover from their time in government.
From 1991 to 2010 they were between 20% and 30% in local elections.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/europes-sixth-generation fighter-trouble-180594
FACT!
There must have been a time when there were just a few families hanging on and insisting that the children spoke Latin.
The seven day rolling average for the case rate seems essentially flat and has done since just before the schools came back, so I'm not quite sure where the modest drop in total case numbers comes from. The local authority map certainly seems to have seized up.
My local district: 44 positive tests and no deaths in the last week.
Total vaccine uptake for all adults in the UK: 51% first dose, 4% second dose.
The coward has set it up so nobody can reply to his idiocy.
https://twitter.com/mattletiss7/status/1372522338600812546
It's similar to Greek. The Greek we learn is the literary language of Athens in the Fifth Century. It is very different, for example to the Common tongue, which the New Testmant is written in.
If so, did it offend because of the subject matter or because it was simply not remotely funny?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50930002
I foolishly thought, having finished my painting for today, I would put the cricket on.
If I die of a blood clot, I'll be sure to let you know.
--AS
Well - form.
Well - ummm - put it this way, he’s not the batsman I’d have sent in right now.
The fact the subject of his ire is someone who has just turned 18 makes it creepy as it is unfunny and the fact that condoms are not made out of plastic.
Dock India 50 runs NOW!
If you're going to use cricket to bash the English pick the correct cricketer, you might have as well used David Warner.
Why did you have to post that on PT? Now they can hardly get the ball off the square...
https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1373314478524207108?s=20
Edit - no, Morgan, who is in fact the man I would have sent in at 4.
from cases
from hospitalisations
But he lost his crap at the time when this story was revealed.
https://twitter.com/TheKateMcK/status/1372962804462936065
(I'm not genuinely concerned.)
--AS
England CFR
Threefour reckless shots.Don’t know what happened to Roy but the fact is the other batsmen have thrown away their wickets.
Since I tuned in, annoyingly.
To my mind they've made three appalling, and entirely avoidable, mistakes.
(1) Most are holding supplied back for second doses. This makes literally no sense. In the (unlikely) event supply went to zero, your country would still be in a much better position having 100 half vaccinated, rather than 50 waiting vaccinated and waiting on their second dose.
(2) All are following manufacturer guidelines rather than maximising first doses. Now, I can understand why you would want to choose to get an 78 year old diabetic their second dose before a fit 23 year old. But the diminution in cases, hospitalisations and transmission is surely much better by maximising first doses.
(3) Most also feel that they need to placate anti-vaxxers. Not a single CV19 vaccine has a positive net approval in France. And while AZ is the worse, Moderna, J&J and Pfizer are all underwater too. Utter insanity. Me? If you miss your place in the vaccince queue, we give it to someone who does want the vaccine. Fuck refuseniks and get jabs in arms. The more people protected, the better.
Edit. Excellent bowling as well in fairness. Bhuvneshwar especially.
OK, come clean, which one of you is the Labour Party candidate for the forthcoming Hartlepool by-election?
I'm pretty sure that the theme crops up in plays from the ancient world, for example.
Same for the violent thug and cheat David Warner, and the cheat Steve Smith.
Up to the rugger boys now, to save English face today.
Go and find a nice man to love and marry is a little bit more benign than 'she needs some cock to make her a better person'
Many moons ago at University I studied Chemistry, and in those days the "go to" reference book on chemicals and the side effects of their ingestion was a huge tome produced by the "International Rubber Company" affectionately known as "The Rubber Bible". This languidly observed that "the side effects of the ingestion of ethanol (alcohol) are so well known they require no repeating here." I fear today a much less sanguine report will be found.
When was the last time that happened?
If Everton beat the Oil Tycoons this evening I'm going to be £200 down.
As I understand it, he suggested that an 18-year old single woman is likely to (a) like sex and (b) prefer to use contraception rather than abstain or risk pregnancy. He then suggested that this preference would take precedent over her environmental beliefs.
I have no insight into the individual's preference, but I would assume that the above statements would be accurate if applied to the vast majority of 18 year old women.