It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
Excellent. Could hit 700k in a day later this week?
INFORMATION: the booking criteria on the NHS England website have been changed from 55+ to 50+
And on this general subject, if they're throwing the internet booking system open to anybody over 50 then, unless it will only accept a certain number of bookings at a time, this presumably means that everyone over 50 in England has effectively been offered the jab as of today? Now, assuming that the rest of the UK is on the same page or not very far behind, hopefully they'll be in a position to start working through people in their late 40s by the end of the month.
I think the "been offered" date refers to the date you're booked in for, not the date you get booked in. So if everyone over 50 booked online today but some could only get an appointment for next week Sunday, then everyone will have been offered an appointment by next week Sunday, not today.
That sounds fair enough. Regardless, as an impatient 44 year old, it's reassuring to see further progress being made.
Imagine being an impatient 49 year old.
Or an impatient 33 year old, my wife is in the category below as well as she's 29. Can't wait to lord my vaccine status over her for two weeks or so.
11 years between me and my wife so I reckon I've well over a month of lording over.
My advantage is almost over. She's getting it tomorrow.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
Happily we should be able to do both at the same time such is the boost in supply we've got for the next few months.
I notice Boris said he was going to get a shot of AZN shortly, #10 PR machine getting better....incoming twatterati screaming about how come he gets to choose which jab he gets.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
McDonalds, Starbucks, etc Drive-Thrus.....I'll have 48 shots in a venti mocha frappuccino with soy mocha drizzle, matcha powder, protein powder, caramel brûlée topping, strawberries, two bananas, caramel drizzle frappuccino chips and vanilla bean....and a J&J jab please.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
Happily we should be able to do both at the same time such is the boost in supply we've got for the next few months.
Will there still be sufficient stockpiled, produced here or imported from outside of Europe if the EU states cut off our supplies though?
I'm struggling with some of those off the top of my head.
From the top left:
Tony B Rebecca 'Vigilante the Assumed Paedos' Wade-Brooks Hugo the Blowjob Is that Mr Murdoch when he was only 98? Or 1 ? 2 ? Mr Moto (not) the Silver Arrow 3 ? Piers Moron Bad Al A random snooker player with a 1983 hairdo or 4 ? 5 ?
It also needs a gravestone to represent the correct burying of some provisions of the enquiry.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
I think the government needs to take a look at whether the J&J vaccine works better as a variant booster or as a shot/chaser type vaccine with a second dose of something else given as a follow up 8-12 weeks later. I'm unconvinced that the J&J vaccine will provide a good level of long term immunity, it performs worse than a single dose of AZ, for example and we are mandating that as a two dose vaccine.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
That graphic does not prove a thermostatic control link between lockdown and cases. Far from it.
Considering the economic and social boosts Florida got from not having a lockdown, it also does not prove that lockdown was worth it.
No, it doesn't prove anything. Observational science rarely does (you can show strong correlations, you can even infer causality from quasi-experimental methods, but not 'proof').
What it does show is a nice dose-response relationship. If there's a causal link between A and B then you expect more of A to cause more of B. If there's a causal link between severity of lockdown and rate of decline in cases, then you'd expect exactly what that graph shows. It's not proof, but it's also emphatically not supporting the argument that lockdowns are irrelevant.
I suppose so if those were the only two graphs available but they aren't. Look at the graph for New Mexico for example, or California.
The pattern is the same as Florida I think, with a similar climate and a much more severe lockdown. These graphs at least challenge the strength of the causal link between lockdown severity and rate of decline.
PLus how severe, or not severe, were Florida's winter control methods? Its difficult to measure, because as RCS1000 points out, de Santis devolved lockdown powers downwards.
I'm not arguing lockdown didn't have an effect. What I am arguing is that its a much blunter, cruder and less effective method than its supporters argue. Van Tam and Co like to portray it as a thermostat, scientifically adjusting the rate of cases at will like turning down the heating.
It isn't. Its very far from that. Florida & Co show that.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
Happily we should be able to do both at the same time such is the boost in supply we've got for the next few months.
Will there still be sufficient stockpiled, produced here or imported from outside of Europe if the EU states cut off our supplies though?
Happily produced here for AZ and Novavax, Switzerland for Moderna and I'm certain that Pfizer will come up with a way of providing the necessary second doses to the UK from its supply chain.
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Google '8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8' and it'll come up as the top result. Follow the link and you should get an unpaywallled version.
Excellent. Could hit 700k in a day later this week?
INFORMATION: the booking criteria on the NHS England website have been changed from 55+ to 50+
And on this general subject, if they're throwing the internet booking system open to anybody over 50 then, unless it will only accept a certain number of bookings at a time, this presumably means that everyone over 50 in England has effectively been offered the jab as of today? Now, assuming that the rest of the UK is on the same page or not very far behind, hopefully they'll be in a position to start working through people in their late 40s by the end of the month.
I think the "been offered" date refers to the date you're booked in for, not the date you get booked in. So if everyone over 50 booked online today but some could only get an appointment for next week Sunday, then everyone will have been offered an appointment by next week Sunday, not today.
That sounds fair enough. Regardless, as an impatient 44 year old, it's reassuring to see further progress being made.
Imagine being an impatient 49 year old.
Or an impatient 33 year old, my wife is in the category below as well as she's 29. Can't wait to lord my vaccine status over her for two weeks or so.
My wife got hers in December. I'm the odd one out in the family not being vaccinated right now.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Nothing of substance, just that AZ are in the process of filing it for EMA authorisation and that the EU are hoping that the stockpiled production will be released once it is authorised to be in the supply chain.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Google '8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8' and it'll come up as the top result. Follow the link and you should get an unpaywallled version.
Or if you copy and paste into Google the title of the article it does the same thing. Never thought to search with its hexadecimal ID number.
The next bit of fun from the EU I predict will be vaccine passports, if as reported it will be down to nations whether they implement or not then surely it will have a huge impact on freedom of movement when for example a french person is barred from entering belgium because of no vaccine passport
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Nothing of substance, just that AZ are in the process of filing it for EMA authorisation and that the EU are hoping that the stockpiled production will be released once it is authorised to be in the supply chain.
While implying that AZ are being slow in asking for authorisation.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
I think the government needs to take a look at whether the J&J vaccine works better as a variant booster or as a shot/chaser type vaccine with a second dose of something else given as a follow up 8-12 weeks later. I'm unconvinced that the J&J vaccine will provide a good level of long term immunity, it performs worse than a single dose of AZ, for example and we are mandating that as a two dose vaccine.
In the US they are mandating it as a follow up to a first dose of Pfizer for those who have had allergic reactions to it. That's what my mother-in-law is doing. Makes sense.
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
Considering that Macron is trying to outdo Le Pen in xenophobia, the whole race now has a rather Alien vs Predator vibe for me.
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
It's quite a scary thought that Le Pen has a very real chance of becoming the French president. I'm hoping that the French people will have a long hard think in the polling booth and hover over the Le Pen box rather than vote for her. It would be a real disaster for all of Europe for her to be in power.
The next bit of fun from the EU I predict will be vaccine passports, if as reported it will be down to nations whether they implement or not then surely it will have a huge impact on freedom of movement when for example a french person is barred from entering belgium because of no vaccine passport
Presumably it would only be for entry to and exit from the Schengen zone, where the regular sort of passports are required at the moment?
There’s no way they’ll let member states impose internal borders within the EU itself.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Boris becomes god-emperor of Europe?
Kate Bingham becomes goddess-empress, rather.
If Britain speeded up its exit plan, how difficult would it be for the EU to manage the the footage of Brits 'safely' enjoying life again?
I don't think the EU has any control over the internet or the airwaves.
Macron, one would hope, will face some very tough questions about how the UK was able up get over Covid while France languishes.
Given how quickly he closed the Chunnel and Dover back in January, presumably he won’t mind too much if the UK reciprocates as their cases quickly fall to zero. Non, monsieur?
To be fair to Napoleon, he had fairly good reason to close it quickly (though politics obvs involved) - new UK variant.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Google '8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8' and it'll come up as the top result. Follow the link and you should get an unpaywallled version.
Or if you copy and paste into Google the title of the article it does the same thing. Never thought to search with its hexadecimal ID number.
I find the UUID is better for articles with more generic titles.
So it was a clumsy reply to a loaded question, rather than a pre-meditated statement she intended to make. That's not much of an excuse, mind; as a top-level politician, she should of course have seen how her answer would be reported.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Google '8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8' and it'll come up as the top result. Follow the link and you should get an unpaywallled version.
Or if you copy and paste into Google the title of the article it does the same thing. Never thought to search with its hexadecimal ID number.
I find the UUID is better for articles with more generic titles.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Google '8e2e994e-9750-4de1-9cbc-31becd2ae0a8' and it'll come up as the top result. Follow the link and you should get an unpaywallled version.
Thanks. About as uninformative as the average BBC News website piece.
Good general summary of individual vs group morality. Extraordinarily tenuous links to Brexit and Covid. Oh and lashings of an, as always, undefined "elite", who are somehow to blame for everyone not agreeing with the author's indisputable wisdom.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
McDonalds, Starbucks, etc Drive-Thrus.....I'll have 48 shots in a venti mocha frappuccino with soy mocha drizzle, matcha powder, protein powder, caramel brûlée topping, strawberries, two bananas, caramel drizzle frappuccino chips and vanilla bean....and a J&J jab please.
Reopen bars and give a free Jagerbomb to everyone who gets jabbed. Shots for shots.
THIS VACCINE IS SHIT AND KILLS PEOPLE AND WE REFUSE TO USE IT EVEN THO IT SAVES THOUSANDS OF LIVES SO WE WILL FORBID ANYONE FROM EXPORTING IT AND YOU MUST GIVE US SOME OF YOURS SO WE CAN REFUSE TO USE THAT, AS WELL. OR ELSE
Seems to be the EU position. Did I miss something?
I am not sure that is quite shrill enough. Despite the block capitals.
The next bit of fun from the EU I predict will be vaccine passports, if as reported it will be down to nations whether they implement or not then surely it will have a huge impact on freedom of movement when for example a french person is barred from entering belgium because of no vaccine passport
Presumably it would only be for entry to and exit from the Schengen zone, where the regular sort of passports are required at the moment?
There’s no way they’ll let member states impose internal borders within the EU itself.
My response was in view of an earlier post where the french poll had 67% against a vaccine passport and it was mooted that it would be a national competence as to whether to have one.
If it is a national competence it would mean some countries within schengen may require them and some not. Fairly pointless if you have to then continue to admit people from neighbouring countries in any case
Hopefully this is just Daily Mail BS based on a handful of anecdotal stories and nothing more...
UK patients are cancelling Covid vaccine appointments because of EU's mass revolt against AstraZeneca's jab over unproven blood clot fears, doctors claim
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Boris becomes god-emperor of Europe?
Let's be generous: we can agree to give Europe Dominion status.
Hmmm, let's see:
Malta = already in Commonwealth Cyprus = already in Commonwealth Ireland = part of the UK until 1922, political union 1993-2020 France = vast swathes were English under the Angevins and during the Hundred Years' War, Calais to 1558, liberated 1814, 1815 and 1944, political union 1993-2020 Germany = 56% "can speak English", personal union with Hannover, Heligoland 1807-1890, occupied 1945-55, political union 1993-2020 Italy = occupied 1943-47, Trieste 1947-54, political union 1993-2020 Denmark = 86% "can speak English", personal union under Canute, liberated 1945, political union 1993-2020 Belgium = 60% "can speak English", liberated 1815, 1944, political union 1993-2020 Holland = 91% "can speak English", personal union 1688-1702, liberated 1944-45, political union 1993-2020 Sweden = 86% "can speak English", southern regions personal union under Canute, Hano Island 1810-1812, political union 1995-2020 Finland = 70% "can speak English", Alands briefly invaded 1854, political union 1995-2020 Greece = 51% "can speak English", Ionian Islands 1815-1864, Salonika occupied WW1, liberated 1944, political union 1993-2020 Luxembourg = 56% "can speak English", liberated 1944-45, political union 1993-2020 Spain = Personal union under Mary & Philip II, Menorca 1708-56, 1763-82, liberated 1809-14, political union 1993-2020 Portugal = liberated 1808-13, political union 1993-2020 Croatia = various Dalmatian islands/coastal 1807-15, political union 2013-2020 Slovenia = 59% "can speak English", political union 2004-2020 Austria = 73% "can speak English", occupied 1945-55, political union 1995-2020 Poland = peacekeeping Silesia 1921-22, political union 2004-2020 Hungary = political union 2004-2020 Czech Republic = political union 2004-2020 Slovakia = political union 2004-2020 Romania = liberated 1918, political union 2007-2020 Bulgaria = presence in Varna 1854, occupied 1918-19, political union 2007-2020 Estonia = 50% "can speak English", intervention 1919(?), political union 2004-2020 Latvia = intervention 1918-19, political union 2004-2020 Lithuania = political union 2004-2020
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
It's quite a scary thought that Le Pen has a very real chance of becoming the French president. I'm hoping that the French people will have a long hard think in the polling booth and hover over the Le Pen box rather than vote for her. It would be a real disaster for all of Europe for her to be in power.
Some called Le Pen has promised to win something important in France for so long (decades) without having done so that the bookmakers are not following the poll data here. And I think they are right. It won't happen.
The next bit of fun from the EU I predict will be vaccine passports, if as reported it will be down to nations whether they implement or not then surely it will have a huge impact on freedom of movement when for example a french person is barred from entering belgium because of no vaccine passport
Presumably it would only be for entry to and exit from the Schengen zone, where the regular sort of passports are required at the moment?
There’s no way they’ll let member states impose internal borders within the EU itself.
If they're applying the movement restrictions equally to all EU citisens including their own, I can't see why or how not. There are clearly movement restrictions in place right now.
Good general summary of individual vs group morality. Extraordinarily tenuous links to Brexit and Covid. Oh and lashings of an, as always, undefined "elite", who are somehow to blame for everyone not agreeing with the author's indisputable wisdom.
It’s a valid and important point, that those of us who care about liberty and personal freedom need to make damn sure that governments see pandemic restrictions as temporary, and keep pressure on those we elect once the crisis is over.
The problem is that those commentators making that point at the moment, all seem to be doing a really bad job of it.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
McDonalds, Starbucks, etc Drive-Thrus.....I'll have 48 shots in a venti mocha frappuccino with soy mocha drizzle, matcha powder, protein powder, caramel brûlée topping, strawberries, two bananas, caramel drizzle frappuccino chips and vanilla bean....and a J&J jab please.
Reopen bars and give a free Jagerbomb to everyone who gets jabbed. Shots for shots.
So it was a clumsy reply to a loaded question, rather than a pre-meditated statement she intended to make. That's not much of an excuse, mind; as a top-level politician, she should of course have seen how her answer would be reported.
Hmmm call me a bit cynical here but anyone else a little suspicious she had all the details of article 122 to hand when it hasn't been used for 50 years? It does sort of suggest some reading up on it has occurred.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
McDonalds, Starbucks, etc Drive-Thrus.....I'll have 48 shots in a venti mocha frappuccino with soy mocha drizzle, matcha powder, protein powder, caramel brûlée topping, strawberries, two bananas, caramel drizzle frappuccino chips and vanilla bean....and a J&J jab please.
Reopen bars and give a free Jagerbomb to everyone who gets jabbed. Shots for shots.
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
Hopefully this is just Daily Mail BS based on a handful of anecdotal stories and nothing more...
UK patients are cancelling Covid vaccine appointments because of EU's mass revolt against AstraZeneca's jab over unproven blood clot fears, doctors claim
If people refuse to take it, fuck 'em. We just move to the next person in the list and vaccinate them instead.
And that, by the way, is what EU countries should be doing too. You a vaccine sceptic? Fuck you. We'll use it on someone who cares.
Look at Israel right now. There is a sizeable chunk of the population that - presumably for religious reasons - isn't getting vaccinated. Despite vaccines being available to all adults, and "only" 60% of Israeli adults having had it, first doses have ground to a standstill. As a result, CV19 is rampant in 40% of the Israeli population. Fuck 'em.
Get jabs into the arms of people who don't want to die. It's not complicated.
Spanish health officials said Wednesday they were investigating three cases of people who suffered from thrombosis after receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine, one of whom died.
AFP reports:
The announcement by Spain’s AEMPS medicines agency came two days after the government suspended use of the vaccine for at least a fortnight as a precautionary measure.
The three cases occurred between late Monday and early Tuesday.
Local press reports said the person who died was a 43-year-old teacher with no pre-existing health conditions who died of a cerebral haemorrhage.
Neither health authorities nor the clinic where she was admitted would confirm details, citing data protection laws.
Monday’s decision to suspend all AstraZeneca shots came just hours after Germany, France and Italy announced similar moves linked to fears the vaccine could generate serious side effects such as blood clots which can cause swellings, heart attacks and haemorrhages.
In a statement, the AEMPS said the three cases might be linked to the “formation of blood clots in areas of the body where they are less common” without drawing firm conclusions.
Its investigators were “gathering more information and carrying out an exhaustive investigation to find out whether there was not only a causal link to the administration of the vaccine, but also a possible temporal link”.
Until the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine was suspended, 975,661 people in Spain had received a shot, official figures show.
British foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Wednesday that the European Commission’s threat to ban exports of Covid-19 vaccines cut across previous assurances, adding that Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen needed to explain herself. Raab told Reuters:
I think it takes some explaining because the world’s watching ... It also cuts across the direct assurances that we had from the Commission. We expect those assurances and legal contracted supply to be respected. Frankly, I’m surprised we’re having this conversation.
The best "rejoin" case now is probably that the EU simply can't cope or work without us, and have gone mad, and we need to go back in to lead them back to sanity and stability, or the whole lot will splinter apart.
Not sure how convincing that would be.
That would depend on the offer they eventually make to us...
Which factories are they going to seize? The ones in Europe already supplying them? The ones in Europe that they have not yet given authorization to produce vaccines? Or the factories in the US and UK (and India)? Is this the EU declaring World War III?
Their latest spin is complaining about the Halix factory that is producing Astrazeneca vaccines but its not been authorised because Astrazeneca to date have not filed the paperwork to get authorisation for that factory.
Astrazeneca insists things are "on track" in the factory though. Maybe the factory is busy dealing with the contracts signed months before the EU's contracts were? I don't know.
Behind the pay wall. What does the story say?
Nothing of substance, just that AZ are in the process of filing it for EMA authorisation and that the EU are hoping that the stockpiled production will be released once it is authorised to be in the supply chain.
While implying that AZ are being slow in asking for authorisation.
I expect that part is copied verbatim from the FT's EU source. The top BTL comment was quite good and urged the FT to actually go and investigate the situation instead of just repeating what their EU sources have told them.
Re Spain and the Moderna vaccines: given it is just the "fill" that is happening there, and that is something that could relatively easily be moved to a firm in Switzerland, Norway, the UK etc., I would be surprised if the government there did anything foolish. Simply, Moderna wouldn't sent their vaccines to be finished in Spain, if Spain messed with them.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
British foreign minister Dominic Raab said on Wednesday that the European Commission’s threat to ban exports of Covid-19 vaccines cut across previous assurances, adding that Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen needed to explain herself. Raab told Reuters:
I think it takes some explaining because the world’s watching ... It also cuts across the direct assurances that we had from the Commission. We expect those assurances and legal contracted supply to be respected. Frankly, I’m surprised we’re having this conversation.
Re Spain and the Moderna vaccines: given it is just the "fill" that is happening there, and that is something that could relatively easily be moved to a firm in Switzerland, Norway, the UK etc., I would be surprised if the government there did anything foolish. Simply, Moderna wouldn't sent their vaccines to be finished in Spain, if Spain messed with them.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
Yes, same as the AZ vaccines blocked for export by Italy, it's only the fill and finish that takes place in Italy. I'm sure AZ have already begun looking for other partners which ultimately is a problem for Italy's pharma sector now as it has lost that business.
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
London (CNN) Britain's overseas reputation has been tarnished lately, and some of it is entirely self-inflicted.
From images of burly police officers wrestling women to the ground to claims of racism in the royal family, accusations of Brexit rule-breaking and even a coronavirus variant first detected in England and now spreading across the globe, the United Kingdom is coming up tainted in the court of international opinion.
The latest crisis came this weekend, when images of a crackdown on a peaceful London vigil for a murdered woman were beamed around the world. A viral photo of woman prostrate on the ground, police officers astride her back, is never a good look for any democracy, but this latest shocker is just one in an increasing accumulation of PR own goals the UK is belting into its own net, just as the country chases global partners for post-Brexit trade.
For a nation that revels in reminiscing of bygone better days, the words of one such anthem, "Rule Britannia! Britannia, rule the waves," resonates less these days of riding a mighty swell and more of being lashed by misfortune and misjudgement.
Where is this 'court of international opinion' ? Strasbourg ?
Re Spain and the Moderna vaccines: given it is just the "fill" that is happening there, and that is something that could relatively easily be moved to a firm in Switzerland, Norway, the UK etc., I would be surprised if the government there did anything foolish. Simply, Moderna wouldn't sent their vaccines to be finished in Spain, if Spain messed with them.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
Yes, same as the AZ vaccines blocked for export by Italy, it's only the fill and finish that takes place in Italy. I'm sure AZ have already begun looking for other partners which ultimately is a problem for Italy's pharma sector now as it has lost that business.
The Spanish government - except when it comes to Catalonia - has tended to be a little more sensible than the Italian one in the recent past.
The next bit of fun from the EU I predict will be vaccine passports, if as reported it will be down to nations whether they implement or not then surely it will have a huge impact on freedom of movement when for example a french person is barred from entering belgium because of no vaccine passport
Presumably it would only be for entry to and exit from the Schengen zone, where the regular sort of passports are required at the moment?
There’s no way they’ll let member states impose internal borders within the EU itself.
If they're applying the movement restrictions equally to all EU citisens including their own, I can't see why or how not. There are clearly movement restrictions in place right now.
There's no way member states will let restrictions be removed - circulating infection levels are very different.
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
Re Spain and the Moderna vaccines: given it is just the "fill" that is happening there, and that is something that could relatively easily be moved to a firm in Switzerland, Norway, the UK etc., I would be surprised if the government there did anything foolish. Simply, Moderna wouldn't sent their vaccines to be finished in Spain, if Spain messed with them.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
Yes, same as the AZ vaccines blocked for export by Italy, it's only the fill and finish that takes place in Italy. I'm sure AZ have already begun looking for other partners which ultimately is a problem for Italy's pharma sector now as it has lost that business.
Lets not forget these vaccines aren't just for Christmas this year....we will be doing this for years to come, both for the rest of the world and also booster shots / for variants.
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
It's quite a scary thought that Le Pen has a very real chance of becoming the French president. I'm hoping that the French people will have a long hard think in the polling booth and hover over the Le Pen box rather than vote for her. It would be a real disaster for all of Europe for her to be in power.
Well, bright side. Maybe she'll stuff up France so badly that everyone else will have second thoughts about the far right. Like how the Greens have turned Brighton into a third world country so no one else is tempted to vote for them. Or how Brexit killed off all the other anti-EU movements, and the Commission is now working overtime to resuscitate their designated common enemy.
But, yes. That would still not be good. Le Pen may be mightier than the sword, but she is... unpleasant.
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
My post from last night:
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
It's quite a scary thought that Le Pen has a very real chance of becoming the French president. I'm hoping that the French people will have a long hard think in the polling booth and hover over the Le Pen box rather than vote for her. It would be a real disaster for all of Europe for her to be in power.
Well, bright side. Maybe she'll stuff up France so badly that everyone else will have second thoughts about the far right. Like how the Greens have turned Brighton into a third world country so no one else is tempted to vote for them. Or how Brexit killed off all the other anti-EU movements, and the Commission is now working overtime to resuscitate their designated common enemy.
But, yes. That would still not be good. Le Pen may be mightier than the sword, but she is... unpleasant.
I think Le Pen (Jr) is a much less unpleasant than people think. She's a very different character to her father.
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
So it was a clumsy reply to a loaded question, rather than a pre-meditated statement she intended to make. That's not much of an excuse, mind; as a top-level politician, she should of course have seen how her answer would be reported.
She’s not really top level though
More of a third tier mediocrity that Merkel promoted away from a position in the German Cabinet
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
My post from last night:
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
To be fair, the Covid-19 vaccine only saves you from death, the pill saves you from children. And I'd much rather avoid my children than avoid death.
That graphic does not prove a thermostatic control link between lockdown and cases. Far from it.
Considering the economic and social boosts Florida got from not having a lockdown, it also does not prove that lockdown was worth it.
No, it doesn't prove anything. Observational science rarely does (you can show strong correlations, you can even infer causality from quasi-experimental methods, but not 'proof').
What it does show is a nice dose-response relationship. If there's a causal link between A and B then you expect more of A to cause more of B. If there's a causal link between severity of lockdown and rate of decline in cases, then you'd expect exactly what that graph shows. It's not proof, but it's also emphatically not supporting the argument that lockdowns are irrelevant.
I suppose so if those were the only two graphs available but they aren't. Look at the graph for New Mexico for example, or California.
The pattern is the same as Florida I think, with a similar climate and a much more severe lockdown. These graphs at least challenge the strength of the causal link between lockdown severity and rate of decline.
PLus how severe, or not severe, were Florida's winter control methods? Its difficult to measure, because as RCS1000 points out, de Santis devolved lockdown powers downwards.
I'm not arguing lockdown didn't have an effect. What I am arguing is that its a much blunter, cruder and less effective method than its supporters argue. Van Tam and Co like to portray it as a thermostat, scientifically adjusting the rate of cases at will like turning down the heating.
It isn't. Its very far from that. Florida & Co show that.
Thanks for the pointers to New Mexico and California (I haven't been following things particularly closely in the States, certainly not at state level). In the link I posted earlier ( https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ ) the transit reductions in those states are much closer to Florida than to, for example, the UK.
What we come back to is that people keeping away from other people has an effect, particularly indoors. Lockdowns will vary in effect according to all kinds of factors, to give just a few: - exact restrictions implemented - degree of compliance/enforcement (this also depends on compliance in particular risk segments, of course) - what is normal in the population (e.g. if it's warmer and people are mostly mixing outside, stopping that will be less effective than if people are mostly mixing inside) - variants circulating - levels of population immunity from past infection or vaccination
I do actually think a lockdown is a bit like a thermostat but that both are crude. A thermostat isn't really a fine control, it's an on/off switch triggered by something exceeding a certain level. Lockdowns are stopping people from mixing when things (cases) get past a certain level. You can play with the level of lockdown, so arguably it's a less blunt tool than a thermostat. Like thermostats, the effects vary - if you have a 4kW electric heater then cranking the thermostat up to 30C will get you to 30C faster than if you do the same on a 1kW heater... am I taking this analogy too far? Probably
It would be great if we could be a lot more nuanced, but the experience with tiers etc has shown people don't like complicated rules and delight in finding corner cases.
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
My post from last night:
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
Which is where I got the idea from - is it possible that the two combined is worse than the pill by itself? It's one of those areas where you would require a significant number of injections before any link could be formed?
Mind you even if that is the case it still doesn't stop you vaccinating men or women who aren't on the pill.
But given that everything usually takes months and we are trying to do things in hours it's not surprising that what may be a sane slight delay is seen by everyone as something else.
So it was a clumsy reply to a loaded question, rather than a pre-meditated statement she intended to make. That's not much of an excuse, mind; as a top-level politician, she should of course have seen how her answer would be reported.
She’s not really top level though
More of a third tier mediocrity that Merkel promoted away from a position in the German Cabinet
With a few exceptions, isn't that one of the major problems of the EU? The Commissions is made up of Has Beens and Never Will Bes. (Yes, yes, yes, I know there are exceptions.)
Re Spain and the Moderna vaccines: given it is just the "fill" that is happening there, and that is something that could relatively easily be moved to a firm in Switzerland, Norway, the UK etc., I would be surprised if the government there did anything foolish. Simply, Moderna wouldn't sent their vaccines to be finished in Spain, if Spain messed with them.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
Yes, same as the AZ vaccines blocked for export by Italy, it's only the fill and finish that takes place in Italy. I'm sure AZ have already begun looking for other partners which ultimately is a problem for Italy's pharma sector now as it has lost that business.
Lets not forget these vaccines aren't just for Christmas this year....we will be doing this for years to come, both for the rest of the world and also booster shots / for variants.
When do you think we'll see the first evidence of Big Pharma shifting future investments away from EU countries?
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
My post from last night:
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
To be fair, the Covid-19 vaccine only saves you from death, the pill saves you from children. And I'd much rather avoid my children than avoid death.
The Pill isn’t much use, if you have the children already!
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
I think the moment this happened the government would have paid AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and others literally whatever was necessary to get UK manufacturing up and running for end Q1 and early Q2 delivery. Ultimately these are all private companies and if the UK took the "let's be a purchaser rather than a partner" approach of the EU to our scheme then we'd have had to very quickly change it to "fuck we need to become a partner" very early on in January as Merck or whoever Oxford signed a deal with were prevented from exporting doses reserved by the US government.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
McDonalds, Starbucks, etc Drive-Thrus.....I'll have 48 shots in a venti mocha frappuccino with soy mocha drizzle, matcha powder, protein powder, caramel brûlée topping, strawberries, two bananas, caramel drizzle frappuccino chips and vanilla bean....and a J&J jab please.
Reopen bars and give a free Jagerbomb to everyone who gets jabbed. Shots for shots.
Disgusting stuff Jägermeister.
I remember a rather crude joke about a young man marking their first blow job with a jaegermeister
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
My post from last night:
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
To be fair, the Covid-19 vaccine only saves you from death, the pill saves you from children. And I'd much rather avoid my children than avoid death.
Re Spain and the Moderna vaccines: given it is just the "fill" that is happening there, and that is something that could relatively easily be moved to a firm in Switzerland, Norway, the UK etc., I would be surprised if the government there did anything foolish. Simply, Moderna wouldn't sent their vaccines to be finished in Spain, if Spain messed with them.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
Yes, same as the AZ vaccines blocked for export by Italy, it's only the fill and finish that takes place in Italy. I'm sure AZ have already begun looking for other partners which ultimately is a problem for Italy's pharma sector now as it has lost that business.
Lets not forget these vaccines aren't just for Christmas this year....we will be doing this for years to come, both for the rest of the world and also booster shots / for variants.
When do you think we'll see the first evidence of Big Pharma shifting future investments away from EU countries?
That's still not a very helpful headline, because it implies there are meaningful risks.
Yes, and one of the other issues is that the justification being used by most is that the "risk" from the AZ vaccine is the same or less than for Pfizer or Moderna which casts doubt onto both of those as well. It would be better for the WHO, EMA and MHRA to stop bloody arse covering and say there is no causal link and to just get on with it.
I'm starting to wonder if there is a link to Covid and the pill. Simply because all the cases we seem to be hearing about a women aged 25-45...
My post from last night:
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
To be fair, the Covid-19 vaccine only saves you from death, the pill saves you from children. And I'd much rather avoid my children than avoid death.
The Pill isn’t much use, if you have the children already!
The pill does save you from additional children appearing 9 months later
Le Pen could win comfortably in the end. France has no clear path out of the pandemic, and Macron doesn't have the stomach to do what needs to be done (basically, make vaccines compulsory). They're in for a year of total chaos, and then Le Pen capitalises on that by smashing Macron to bits in the run-off. They really have to hope they find two candidates who can beat her in Round 1.
It's quite a scary thought that Le Pen has a very real chance of becoming the French president. I'm hoping that the French people will have a long hard think in the polling booth and hover over the Le Pen box rather than vote for her. It would be a real disaster for all of Europe for her to be in power.
Well, bright side. Maybe she'll stuff up France so badly that everyone else will have second thoughts about the far right. Like how the Greens have turned Brighton into a third world country so no one else is tempted to vote for them. Or how Brexit killed off all the other anti-EU movements, and the Commission is now working overtime to resuscitate their designated common enemy.
But, yes. That would still not be good. Le Pen may be mightier than the sword, but she is... unpleasant.
I think Le Pen (Jr) is a much less unpleasant than people think. She's a very different character to her father.
I'd prefer to never find out, but the suspicion remains that she shares much of his worldview, whilst having realised it wasn't an electable proposition, and has therefore moved just far enough away to convince enough of the electorate that they are different.
Wasn't the number one argument of EU membership that the EU are best placed to negotiate deals? Were they always this terrible at negotiating deals, or is their ineptitude specific to the pandemic?
The next bit of fun from the EU I predict will be vaccine passports, if as reported it will be down to nations whether they implement or not then surely it will have a huge impact on freedom of movement when for example a french person is barred from entering belgium because of no vaccine passport
There are towns where you can go from France to Belgium and back just by walking down the main shopping street...
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
I think the moment this happened the government would have paid AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and others literally whatever was necessary to get UK manufacturing up and running for end Q1 and early Q2 delivery. Ultimately these are all private companies and if the UK took the "let's be a purchaser rather than a partner" approach of the EU to our scheme then we'd have had to very quickly change it to "fuck we need to become a partner" very early on in January as Merck or whoever Oxford signed a deal with were prevented from exporting doses reserved by the US government.
Maybe, but you didn't indulge me by the thought experiment of imagining the exact reverse of the current situation! Which might for might not help people imagine how some people on the continent might feel about stopping vaccine exports, which was kind of the point of the counterfactual.
The EU should ask the US to release unused AZN vaccine in storage so that they can become unused vaccine in storage in the EU.
The EU should ask the UK to divert vaccines it is putting in people's arms so that they can become unused vaccine in storage in the EU.
Sounds perfectly reasonable when put like that.
And it is clearly a strongarm tactic
Well screw them
They've got no leverage - they rely on imported raw materials - this is just political fodder to look like they're tough and taking action, but they can't do squat.
And the answer to both those requests should be Foxtrot Oscar and a request that they sorted out actually using their stockpiled vaccines first.
In reality the more I see of Dave Keating the more I want Boris to buy another 100 million from AZ and start sending them anywhere and everywhere except the EU.
It's interesting that England is running so fewer 2nd doses compared to the other nations.
That changes from this week when millions of second doses become necessary per week.
From a bang per buck point of view it makes sense at a macro level.
You get 2/3rd risk reduction from a 1st shot in a fresh person, and just an extra 1/4 risk reduction from a second shot, so why wouldn't you maximise first shots?
There's a case for second shots for crusties over first shots for 20 year olds, as the risk or death for a 20 year old is so low.
If you're purely aiming for individual protection. From a lowering R and preventing general spread there would be something to be said for getting immunity going in younger, more social demographics now the priority groups are basically covered.
The one-shot J&J arrives in April, they should send them out to pharmacies and do them to all-comers standing in line.
McDonalds, Starbucks, etc Drive-Thrus.....I'll have 48 shots in a venti mocha frappuccino with soy mocha drizzle, matcha powder, protein powder, caramel brûlée topping, strawberries, two bananas, caramel drizzle frappuccino chips and vanilla bean....and a J&J jab please.
Reopen bars and give a free Jagerbomb to everyone who gets jabbed. Shots for shots.
Disgusting stuff Jägermeister.
It's quite nice served straight from the freezer. Problem is most bars keep it in a fridge instead.
If a bar keeps it in the freezer I'd drink it neat.
That graphic does not prove a thermostatic control link between lockdown and cases. Far from it.
Considering the economic and social boosts Florida got from not having a lockdown, it also does not prove that lockdown was worth it.
No, it doesn't prove anything. Observational science rarely does (you can show strong correlations, you can even infer causality from quasi-experimental methods, but not 'proof').
What it does show is a nice dose-response relationship. If there's a causal link between A and B then you expect more of A to cause more of B. If there's a causal link between severity of lockdown and rate of decline in cases, then you'd expect exactly what that graph shows. It's not proof, but it's also emphatically not supporting the argument that lockdowns are irrelevant.
I suppose so if those were the only two graphs available but they aren't. Look at the graph for New Mexico for example, or California.
The pattern is the same as Florida I think, with a similar climate and a much more severe lockdown. These graphs at least challenge the strength of the causal link between lockdown severity and rate of decline.
PLus how severe, or not severe, were Florida's winter control methods? Its difficult to measure, because as RCS1000 points out, de Santis devolved lockdown powers downwards.
I'm not arguing lockdown didn't have an effect. What I am arguing is that its a much blunter, cruder and less effective method than its supporters argue. Van Tam and Co like to portray it as a thermostat, scientifically adjusting the rate of cases at will like turning down the heating.
It isn't. Its very far from that. Florida & Co show that.
Thanks for the pointers to New Mexico and California (I haven't been following things particularly closely in the States, certainly not at state level). In the link I posted earlier ( https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ ) the transit reductions in those states are much closer to Florida than to, for example, the UK.
What we come back to is that people keeping away from other people has an effect, particularly indoors. Lockdowns will vary in effect according to all kinds of factors, to give just a few: - exact restrictions implemented - degree of compliance/enforcement (this also depends on compliance in particular risk segments, of course) - what is normal in the population (e.g. if it's warmer and people are mostly mixing outside, stopping that will be less effective than if people are mostly mixing inside) - variants circulating - levels of population immunity from past infection or vaccination
I do actually think a lockdown is a bit like a thermostat but that both are crude. A thermostat isn't really a fine control, it's an on/off switch triggered by something exceeding a certain level. Lockdowns are stopping people from mixing when things (cases) get past a certain level. You can play with the level of lockdown, so arguably it's a less blunt tool than a thermostat. Like thermostats, the effects vary - if you have a 4kW electric heater then cranking the thermostat up to 30C will get you to 30C faster than if you do the same on a 1kW heater... am I taking this analogy too far? Probably
It would be great if we could be a lot more nuanced, but the experience with tiers etc has shown people don't like complicated rules and delight in finding corner cases.
I'm sure the US experience in the different states with their different climates, vaccine rates, geography , approaches, age profiles etc will be the subject of many studies in the future! quite the laboratory!
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
I think the moment this happened the government would have paid AZ, Pfizer, Moderna and others literally whatever was necessary to get UK manufacturing up and running for end Q1 and early Q2 delivery. Ultimately these are all private companies and if the UK took the "let's be a purchaser rather than a partner" approach of the EU to our scheme then we'd have had to very quickly change it to "fuck we need to become a partner" very early on in January as Merck or whoever Oxford signed a deal with were prevented from exporting doses reserved by the US government.
Following up, it's important to remember that the UK wasn't a vaccines powerhouse before COVID and the VTF, I think there was only one vaccine manufactured in the UK for Japanese encephalitis by Valneva in Scotland, otherwise we were always a net importer of vaccines, mostly from Belgium where even our own GSK has chosen to base its vaccine production. We'd never have been in the position of exporting anything because we had no significant means of production until the government subsidised everything it could and in return secured exclusivity on UK production. I think the counterfactual just couldn't have happened, at least not the bit about UK companies exporting elsewhere while not servicing the UK government contract.
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
We don't need a thought experiment. France and China stopped exports of contracted PPE at crucial moment in the first wave and deliveries of other PPE was constantly wrong / late / not fully fulfilled on time.
The reaction was from the media / public, well the government need to pull their finger out and find a way of getting some, whatever it takes. And that is what the government did, they often paid over the odds for stuff (and used some of their mates). Same with ventilators.
What we didn't do is go full metal Cartman on anybody who moved.
Labour in Wales doing a sensible job on the pay rise, well done Mark Drakeford
Nonsense! It’s heavily taxed so they won’t get what everyone thinks they are getting, it’s a one off so poor substitute for pay rise. It should be rightly rejected as taking the p***
The UK must have received the majority of its Pfizer order at this point, so less dependent on that one supplier.
The EU is close to declaring war. An act of illegal and blatant hostility that will kill Britons, if it happens. How is that different from a military attack?
This actually makes it more possible not impossible Boris shares with EU. Boris will share vaccine with EU country before Easter Monday. We are entering the practicalities of it now.
No, that will now look like we are yielding to psychotic EU bullying. This makes it harder for the UK to be generous. Not easier
Can we hear from all the people yesterday who were saying ‘oh but this madness is nothing to do with the EU itself, it is the national EU governments’?
They are oddly quiet. Perhaps there is not a Remainer left in the country.
Quite where are Kamski and Scott_P and Roger when we could all do with a good laugh.....
Just out of interest, as an EU resident, presumably waiting for a vaccine, when you hear her say this stuff do you think oh that's bonkers I hope that doesn't happen, or do you think well done UvdL get in?
Yes, it might play well for a few days with some EU citizens. So I agree, there is method in the madness
But, it is still madness. It will unravel in multiple ways. eg if it happens it breaks global supply chains and everyone suffers, because there is no way the USA or UK can yield to unlawful, hostile threats. There are many other dire consequences should they do this (once you think it through).
So it probably won’t happen, and it is just bluster, and it just makes the EU look insane, incompetent and ridiculous. Again.
Only in the UK. That's not the way it's seen in Holland for example.
Do you have any examples of this last?
OK I'm a German citizen and a British citizen in Germany. I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been? I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
We don't need a thought experiment. France and China stopped exports of promised PPE.
Wasn't the number one argument of EU membership that the EU are best placed to negotiate deals? Were they always this terrible at negotiating deals, or is their ineptitude specific to the pandemic?
They’ve almost certainly never procured pharmaceuticals before.
They prioritised price and liability in the negotiations, as other countries were prioritising time and capital investment partnerships.
Not sure the UK and Israel care too much at this point, about having to eat price and liability.
Comments
From the top left:
Tony B
Rebecca 'Vigilante the Assumed Paedos' Wade-Brooks
Hugo the Blowjob
Is that Mr Murdoch when he was only 98? Or 1 ?
2 ?
Mr Moto (not) the Silver Arrow
3 ?
Piers Moron
Bad Al
A random snooker player with a 1983 hairdo or 4 ?
5 ?
It also needs a gravestone to represent the correct burying of some provisions of the enquiry.
Help.
The pattern is the same as Florida I think, with a similar climate and a much more severe lockdown. These graphs at least challenge the strength of the causal link between lockdown severity and rate of decline.
PLus how severe, or not severe, were Florida's winter control methods? Its difficult to measure, because as RCS1000 points out, de Santis devolved lockdown powers downwards.
I'm not arguing lockdown didn't have an effect. What I am arguing is that its a much blunter, cruder and less effective method than its supporters argue. Van Tam and Co like to portray it as a thermostat, scientifically adjusting the rate of cases at will like turning down the heating.
It isn't. Its very far from that. Florida & Co show that.
"We have lost faith in the individual
Freedom has been reframed as a threat to society.
DAVID MCGROGAN"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/03/11/we-have-lost-faith-in-the-individual/
There’s no way they’ll let member states impose internal borders within the EU itself.
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1372172129861525512
So it was a clumsy reply to a loaded question, rather than a pre-meditated statement she intended to make. That's not much of an excuse, mind; as a top-level politician, she should of course have seen how her answer would be reported.
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1372176645990273028
https://twitter.com/DigitalMapsAW/status/1372122578526072833
Extraordinarily tenuous links to Brexit and Covid.
Oh and lashings of an, as always, undefined "elite", who are somehow to blame for everyone not agreeing with the author's indisputable wisdom.
If it is a national competence it would mean some countries within schengen may require them and some not. Fairly pointless if you have to then continue to admit people from neighbouring countries in any case
UK patients are cancelling Covid vaccine appointments because of EU's mass revolt against AstraZeneca's jab over unproven blood clot fears, doctors claim
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9371027/Coronavirus-UK-Patients-cancelling-Covid-vaccinations-Europes-AstraZeneca-row.html
Malta = already in Commonwealth
Cyprus = already in Commonwealth
Ireland = part of the UK until 1922, political union 1993-2020
France = vast swathes were English under the Angevins and during the Hundred Years' War, Calais to 1558, liberated 1814, 1815 and 1944, political union 1993-2020
Germany = 56% "can speak English", personal union with Hannover, Heligoland 1807-1890, occupied 1945-55, political union 1993-2020
Italy = occupied 1943-47, Trieste 1947-54, political union 1993-2020
Denmark = 86% "can speak English", personal union under Canute, liberated 1945, political union 1993-2020
Belgium = 60% "can speak English", liberated 1815, 1944, political union 1993-2020
Holland = 91% "can speak English", personal union 1688-1702, liberated 1944-45, political union 1993-2020
Sweden = 86% "can speak English", southern regions personal union under Canute, Hano Island 1810-1812, political union 1995-2020
Finland = 70% "can speak English", Alands briefly invaded 1854, political union 1995-2020
Greece = 51% "can speak English", Ionian Islands 1815-1864, Salonika occupied WW1, liberated 1944, political union 1993-2020
Luxembourg = 56% "can speak English", liberated 1944-45, political union 1993-2020
Spain = Personal union under Mary & Philip II, Menorca 1708-56, 1763-82, liberated 1809-14, political union 1993-2020
Portugal = liberated 1808-13, political union 1993-2020
Croatia = various Dalmatian islands/coastal 1807-15, political union 2013-2020
Slovenia = 59% "can speak English", political union 2004-2020
Austria = 73% "can speak English", occupied 1945-55, political union 1995-2020
Poland = peacekeeping Silesia 1921-22, political union 2004-2020
Hungary = political union 2004-2020
Czech Republic = political union 2004-2020
Slovakia = political union 2004-2020
Romania = liberated 1918, political union 2007-2020
Bulgaria = presence in Varna 1854, occupied 1918-19, political union 2007-2020
Estonia = 50% "can speak English", intervention 1919(?), political union 2004-2020
Latvia = intervention 1918-19, political union 2004-2020
Lithuania = political union 2004-2020
Research - er, mostly Wikipedia
I could make a case.
The problem is that those commentators making that point at the moment, all seem to be doing a really bad job of it.
Post-Covid dereliction swamped by untold numbers of post-lockdown Brits? I’d rather not have a holiday at all
GUY DE LA BÉDOYÈRE"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/comment/summer-holiday-derelict-post-lockdown-britain-rather-stay-home/
If people refuse to take it, fuck 'em. We just move to the next person in the list and vaccinate them instead.
And that, by the way, is what EU countries should be doing too. You a vaccine sceptic? Fuck you. We'll use it on someone who cares.
Look at Israel right now. There is a sizeable chunk of the population that - presumably for religious reasons - isn't getting vaccinated. Despite vaccines being available to all adults, and "only" 60% of Israeli adults having had it, first doses have ground to a standstill. As a result, CV19 is rampant in 40% of the Israeli population. Fuck 'em.
Get jabs into the arms of people who don't want to die. It's not complicated.
AFP reports:
The announcement by Spain’s AEMPS medicines agency came two days after the government suspended use of the vaccine for at least a fortnight as a precautionary measure.
The three cases occurred between late Monday and early Tuesday.
Local press reports said the person who died was a 43-year-old teacher with no pre-existing health conditions who died of a cerebral haemorrhage.
Neither health authorities nor the clinic where she was admitted would confirm details, citing data protection laws.
Monday’s decision to suspend all AstraZeneca shots came just hours after Germany, France and Italy announced similar moves linked to fears the vaccine could generate serious side effects such as blood clots which can cause swellings, heart attacks and haemorrhages.
In a statement, the AEMPS said the three cases might be linked to the “formation of blood clots in areas of the body where they are less common” without drawing firm conclusions.
Its investigators were “gathering more information and carrying out an exhaustive investigation to find out whether there was not only a causal link to the administration of the vaccine, but also a possible temporal link”.
Until the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine was suspended, 975,661 people in Spain had received a shot, official figures show.
Raab told Reuters:
I think it takes some explaining because the world’s watching ... It also cuts across the direct assurances that we had from the Commission. We expect those assurances and legal contracted supply to be respected. Frankly, I’m surprised we’re having this conversation.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised* if Moderna sought assurances from the Spanish government that batches were not going be messed with.
* As in, their management would be negligent if they did not
Hartlepool?
I think she is making empty threats, probably, and is making herself look stupid.
You might think it strange, that just when many European governments are showing that they are less competent than the EU is at vaccinating people, why would she remind everyone of how crap the EU has been?
I suspect that it is maybe mainly for German consumption. The CDU just did quite badly in state elections, and might well lose power in the Autumn (they certainly deserve to), so shifting attention back onto the EU makes sense for a CDU politician.
But also, if as a thought experiment you tried to imagine the exact reverse situation: that the EU had put in the early investment, and managed to get contracts signed that made all the vaccine produced in the EU stay in the EU PLUS a chunk of the vaccine produced in the UK also got exported to the EU, and deaths were rising fast in the unvaccinated UK population, what would the UK tabloid headlines say about millions of doses being exported to the EU while promised UK deliveries were cut? How would people feel? My guess is there would be a lot more anger about it being unfair than I see here - which I haven't heard at all from the people around me. People are mainly frustrated with the German government (me too). Of course partly I guess this is because people can do the maths: 10 million doses is a lot for 60 million people, but isn't going to transform the vaccination rollout for 400 million. But it may be that the idea of stopping vaccines leaving the EU when they are needed here is quite a popular idea.
Christmasthis year....we will be doing this for years to come, both for the rest of the world and also booster shots / for variants.But, yes. That would still not be good. Le Pen may be mightier than the sword, but she is... unpleasant.
I did vote remain and accepted leaving as a democratic vote, but I would not vote to be any part of this toxic organisation again
"My wife tonight showed me her contraceptive pill notes and one of the listed severe side effects is actually thrombosis, having looked it up it's a 1 in 10,000 chance of developing severe thrombosis for the type of contraceptive pill she takes. Obviously she still takes it anyway, but she was pretty scathing over the double standards being applied to the vaccine which has no causal link proved yet Germany and other European countries have granted full licences for the pill which has a known causal link to blood clots."
It does make you wonder whether these cases are being misattributed to the vaccine because of timing rather than to the pill which we know has a causative link.
*However*, it is very much a counterfactual.
More of a third tier mediocrity that Merkel promoted away from a position in the German Cabinet
What we come back to is that people keeping away from other people has an effect, particularly indoors. Lockdowns will vary in effect according to all kinds of factors, to give just a few:
- exact restrictions implemented
- degree of compliance/enforcement (this also depends on compliance in particular risk segments, of course)
- what is normal in the population (e.g. if it's warmer and people are mostly mixing outside, stopping that will be less effective than if people are mostly mixing inside)
- variants circulating
- levels of population immunity from past infection or vaccination
I do actually think a lockdown is a bit like a thermostat but that both are crude. A thermostat isn't really a fine control, it's an on/off switch triggered by something exceeding a certain level. Lockdowns are stopping people from mixing when things (cases) get past a certain level. You can play with the level of lockdown, so arguably it's a less blunt tool than a thermostat. Like thermostats, the effects vary - if you have a 4kW electric heater then cranking the thermostat up to 30C will get you to 30C faster than if you do the same on a 1kW heater... am I taking this analogy too far? Probably
It would be great if we could be a lot more nuanced, but the experience with tiers etc has shown people don't like complicated rules and delight in finding corner cases.
Mind you even if that is the case it still doesn't stop you vaccinating men or women who aren't on the pill.
But given that everything usually takes months and we are trying to do things in hours it's not surprising that what may be a sane slight delay is seen by everyone as something else.
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1372174283888295949?s=20
The EU should ask the UK to divert vaccines it is putting in people's arms so that they can become unused vaccine in storage in the EU.
Sounds perfectly reasonable when put like that.
Well screw them
Were they always this terrible at negotiating deals, or is their ineptitude specific to the pandemic?
In reality the more I see of Dave Keating the more I want Boris to buy another 100 million from AZ and start sending them anywhere and everywhere except the EU.
If a bar keeps it in the freezer I'd drink it neat.
The reaction was from the media / public, well the government need to pull their finger out and find a way of getting some, whatever it takes. And that is what the government did, they often paid over the odds for stuff (and used some of their mates). Same with ventilators.
What we didn't do is go full metal Cartman on anybody who moved.
They prioritised price and liability in the negotiations, as other countries were prioritising time and capital investment partnerships.
Not sure the UK and Israel care too much at this point, about having to eat price and liability.