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Jupiter in eclipse? Macron looks a very weak odds-on favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited January 2021
    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Well we know what will be written now...The EU, willing to throw your Granny under this, rather than admit a mistake.

    But they did admit it was a mistake, and reversed it within hours.

    How many mistakes has BoZo admitted while 100,000 people died?
    Are you quite clear that they have reversed it? The calamity in Ireland yes after the Taoiseach reminded them Ireland was a member state. The potential export ban is still in place I believe.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    "protection money". Wow...

    Its a trading block. Which we clearly need. With the Department of International Trade advising UK companies they need to set up in the EU to trade there.

    They are being advised to set up a local office (and I’m sure EU companies are getting the same advice for here). It’s really not the same thing.
    The same advice is indeed the case in reverse. EU companies need a UK subsidiary to effectively trade in the UK. Living proof that the border as created by the UK government doesn't allow trade without barriers so costly as to make it uneconomical.

    That the UK government had No Clue about any of this should be a surprise but isn't. They had no idea how the border actually operated. Which is why most of the information that companies needed to "check, change, go" was not available.
    Sunny uplands...

    https://twitter.com/Helen121/status/1355207846560997376?s=19
    So that explains why instead of improving workers rights we are trying to remove some.

    The new Business Secretary has put a stop to that (for now).
    I have never understood this drive in bankster "capitalism". A very basic principle of capitalism is that in order to sell your product/service you need customers who have the desire to buy and the means to do so. Having a workforce on poverty wages in unsafe conditions just increases the likelihood of poor quality and output and reduces viable punters.

    Or, radical idea as it seems to be for many companies, pay your employees decently, keep them safe productive and committed, make them the consumers you need. Every worker with a disposable income creates jobs for other people.

    It's not bankster capitalism - that tends towards buy and selling company like poke chips. See the end of the offence chains in the UK...

    What the screw-the-empoyee model is, is old fashioned, lazy management. No investment, no pay rises, hold the costs down in any stupid way possible. The company will die, but you will get a few years of bigger profits.

    One amusement is to hear such people when confronted by the success of the other model - invest all your profits.
  • Foxy said:

    FPT

    Scottish independence?
    Northern Irish cessation?

    It’s just possible I was being a bit facetious, and having a laugh at the hyperbole in “won’t survive”.

    As often happens, there’s an underlying assumption that a plurality in England or Wales even cares whether Scotland or NI stay in the Union.
    That's true - and Northern Ireland might very well go eventually, regardless of the EU situation, because of a combination of demographic change and its special status under international treaty.

    HOWEVER - what nobody writing here seems to have appreciated yet, although you can be bloody certain that the First Minister of Scotland has, is that the worse relations between the UK and the EU become, the more remote the prospect of

    Watch what happens over the next few years. If the UK-EU relationship continues along the trajectory established by this month's disastrous events then it's very easy to envision an end point at which, after a report from a constitutional commission or some such thing, Westminster passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - probably entailing yet more devolution, especially with respect to tax
    Yes, there are increasing signs that Brexit will be quite a hostile one, with the Brexiteers eager to deflect any criticism of their pet project. The EU meanwhile is demonstrating what third country status means, and has no interest in reversing Brexit. They are glad to be rid of us, and I don't blame them.

    While I think Scotland would have quite a lot to deal with on a hostile border at Gretna Green, I think the Scottish attitude to the Auld Alliance is quite different to the English one.

    There was a poll too this week that showed a Welsh majority for Rejoin, and that would have even more complex problems.

    The problem is that Brexit was always a project of English Nationalism, so as inevitably the sunlight uplands are shown to be barren, inevitably the English government will be blamed. That is why the United Kingdom is doomed. It is only a matter of when and how now.
    Yesterday showed us that "third party status" means we are behind Syria in the EU's affection.

    Duly noted.
    We literally demanded 3rd country status. Our doing, not theirs.

    It appears that we didn't understand what that actually meant.
    You’re missing the point. We want to be a third country. Being told, however, that other third countries, including that of the murderous Assad, will be treated better than us is, well let’s use the diplomatic speak of “disappointing”. We won’t forget.
    When have they said that? And what is in the EU - Syria Co-operation Deal that isn't in the UK EU deal? And whose fault is that if the UK failed to secure as good a deal as Assad did...?

    A basic principle of negotiation. Don't fuck up the deal then complain to the counter-party about its terms. I remember the Woolies Commercial Director trying that on the year before they folded. The deal wasn't generous enough in various parameters. "But those were the terms you inserted into the deal and signed".
    We’re talking about the vaccine stuff. They made Syria exempt. Nothing to do with our trade deal.
    Yes. They discriminated against the UK and only the UK. Oh ok, and America, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea etc. We are the victims here!
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    For once, I am pleased to say a very well done to the government, not just on vaccine procurement generally but particularly for their response to the last few days.

    Unlike most on here, they understood this is political posturing and unhelpful pantomime from the EU, that vaccines procured by the UK will continue to arrive from the EU, and that the only benefit from escalation would be a short term polling boost back home. In the best British traditions, keeping calm and quietly getting an assurance that deliveries of vaccines will continue was entirely the right response.

    Yes, I agree that the government response has been sound.

    Newspapers and PB armchair Generals talking of war, less so...
    Question if I may, @Foxy .

    If there is a Europe wide rollout, will prioritising "hot spots" or similar first be a more effective strategy than by distribution by population ratios? Or is it much of a muchness?
    Gotta go shortly, but I understand that it is up to each country to choose who to immunise first. By the nature of their health care systems, many won't have age registers of their older population, unlike the NHS. That is a problem that they should have planned for.

    Italy has focused on Health and Social Care workers, who have had 80% of their rollout. Keeping the elderly isolated and Health Care running is an interesting approach, but not necessarily a bad one. Hospital acquired disease is a common phenomenon everywhere, and in the UK immunised people are also supposed to isolate anyway.

    We will see different approaches in different places, as we did in Sweden in the summer. It will be fertile information for infectious disease epidemiologists for years to come.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    For once, I am pleased to say a very well done to the government, not just on vaccine procurement generally but particularly for their response to the last few days.

    Unlike most on here, they understood this is political posturing and unhelpful pantomime from the EU, that vaccines procured by the UK will continue to arrive from the EU, and that the only benefit from escalation would be a short term polling boost back home. In the best British traditions, keeping calm and quietly getting an assurance that deliveries of vaccines will continue was entirely the right response.

    Yes, I agree. Have to say I have been pleasantly surprised.

    Although I would say that I'm pretty sure that if Cummings was still pulling all the strings we would have seen a completely different response.
  • Foxy said:

    FPT

    Scottish independence?
    Northern Irish cessation?

    It’s just possible I was being a bit facetious, and having a laugh at the hyperbole in “won’t survive”.

    As often happens, there’s an underlying assumption that a plurality in England or Wales even cares whether Scotland or NI stay in the Union.
    That's true - and Northern Ireland might very well go eventually, regardless of the EU situation, because of a combination of demographic change and its special status under international treaty.

    HOWEVER - what nobody writing here seems to have appreciated yet, although you can be bloody certain that the First Minister of Scotland has, is that the worse relations between the UK and the EU become, the more remote the prospect of

    Watch what happens over the next few years. If the UK-EU relationship continues along the trajectory established by this month's disastrous events then it's very easy to envision an end point at which, after a report from a constitutional commission or some such thing, Westminster passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - probably entailing yet more devolution, especially with respect to tax
    Yes, there are increasing signs that Brexit will be quite a hostile one, with the Brexiteers eager to deflect any criticism of their pet project. The EU meanwhile is demonstrating what third country status means, and has no interest in reversing Brexit. They are glad to be rid of us, and I don't blame them.

    While I think Scotland would have quite a lot to deal with on a hostile border at Gretna Green, I think the Scottish attitude to the Auld Alliance is quite different to the English one.

    There was a poll too this week that showed a Welsh majority for Rejoin, and that would have even more complex problems.

    The problem is that Brexit was always a project of English Nationalism, so as inevitably the sunlight uplands are shown to be barren, inevitably the English government will be blamed. That is why the United Kingdom is doomed. It is only a matter of when and how now.
    Yesterday showed us that "third party status" means we are behind Syria in the EU's affection.

    Duly noted.
    We literally demanded 3rd country status. Our doing, not theirs.

    It appears that we didn't understand what that actually meant.
    You’re missing the point. We want to be a third country. Being told, however, that other third countries, including that of the murderous Assad, will be treated better than us is, well let’s use the diplomatic speak of “disappointing”. We won’t forget.
    When have they said that? And what is in the EU - Syria Co-operation Deal that isn't in the UK EU deal? And whose fault is that if the UK failed to secure as good a deal as Assad did...?

    A basic principle of negotiation. Don't fuck up the deal then complain to the counter-party about its terms. I remember the Woolies Commercial Director trying that on the year before they folded. The deal wasn't generous enough in various parameters. "But those were the terms you inserted into the deal and signed".
    We’re talking about the vaccine stuff. They made Syria exempt. Nothing to do with our trade deal.
    Yes. They discriminated against the UK and only the UK. Oh ok, and America, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea etc. We are the victims here!
    No, part of their idiocy was precisely the implication that all of the countries you name are less desirable than Assad. We all got insulted. We will all remember it.
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
  • eek said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    "protection money". Wow...

    Its a trading block. Which we clearly need. With the Department of International Trade advising UK companies they need to set up in the EU to trade there.

    They are being advised to set up a local office (and I’m sure EU companies are getting the same advice for here). It’s really not the same thing.
    The same advice is indeed the case in reverse. EU companies need a UK subsidiary to effectively trade in the UK. Living proof that the border as created by the UK government doesn't allow trade without barriers so costly as to make it uneconomical.

    That the UK government had No Clue about any of this should be a surprise but isn't. They had no idea how the border actually operated. Which is why most of the information that companies needed to "check, change, go" was not available.
    Sunny uplands...

    https://twitter.com/Helen121/status/1355207846560997376?s=19
    So that explains why instead of improving workers rights we are trying to remove some.

    The new Business Secretary has put a stop to that (for now).
    I have never understood this drive in bankster "capitalism". A very basic principle of capitalism is that in order to sell your product/service you need customers who have the desire to buy and the means to do so. Having a workforce on poverty wages in unsafe conditions just increases the likelihood of poor quality and output and reduces viable punters.

    Or, radical idea as it seems to be for many companies, pay your employees decently, keep them safe productive and committed, make them the consumers you need. Every worker with a disposable income creates jobs for other people.

    It's not bankster capitalism - that tends towards buy and selling company like poke chips. See the end of the offence chains in the UK...

    What the screw-the-empoyee model is, is old fashioned, lazy management. No investment, no pay rises, hold the costs down in any stupid way possible. The company will die, but you will get a few years of bigger profits.

    One amusement is to hear such people when confronted by the success of the other model - invest all your profits.
    Its the same thing just on different scales. In other countries (Germany as a good example) companies are focused on the long term. Invest and see a return on the investment. In the UK too many companies are focused almost solely on the next quarter's profit number to report to the stock market and selling out to literally anyone anywhere for a quick buck.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday the EU have nothing in them and we now get all our AZN from within the UK. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's production destined for the UK because we have our own AZN supplys.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.

    The more I think about it the more I see how much the has EU screwed up (in so many ways).

    As a company I have a f*** you price list which are the prices we use when we really don't want you as a customer but can't say it outloud. It really wouldn't surprise me if the EU is on AZN and Novona's version of that list.
  • Foxy said:

    FPT

    Scottish independence?
    Northern Irish cessation?

    It’s just possible I was being a bit facetious, and having a laugh at the hyperbole in “won’t survive”.

    As often happens, there’s an underlying assumption that a plurality in England or Wales even cares whether Scotland or NI stay in the Union.
    That's true - and Northern Ireland might very well go eventually, regardless of the EU situation, because of a combination of demographic change and its special status under international treaty.

    HOWEVER - what nobody writing here seems to have appreciated yet, although you can be bloody certain that the First Minister of Scotland has, is that the worse relations between the UK and the EU become, the more remote the prospect of

    Watch what happens over the next few years. If the UK-EU relationship continues along the trajectory established by this month's disastrous events then it's very easy to envision an end point at which, after a report from a constitutional commission or some such thing, Westminster passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - probably entailing yet more devolution, especially with respect to tax
    Yes, there are increasing signs that Brexit will be quite a hostile one, with the Brexiteers eager to deflect any criticism of their pet project. The EU meanwhile is demonstrating what third country status means, and has no interest in reversing Brexit. They are glad to be rid of us, and I don't blame them.

    While I think Scotland would have quite a lot to deal with on a hostile border at Gretna Green, I think the Scottish attitude to the Auld Alliance is quite different to the English one.

    There was a poll too this week that showed a Welsh majority for Rejoin, and that would have even more complex problems.

    The problem is that Brexit was always a project of English Nationalism, so as inevitably the sunlight uplands are shown to be barren, inevitably the English government will be blamed. That is why the United Kingdom is doomed. It is only a matter of when and how now.
    Yesterday showed us that "third party status" means we are behind Syria in the EU's affection.

    Duly noted.
    We literally demanded 3rd country status. Our doing, not theirs.

    It appears that we didn't understand what that actually meant.
    You’re missing the point. We want to be a third country. Being told, however, that other third countries, including that of the murderous Assad, will be treated better than us is, well let’s use the diplomatic speak of “disappointing”. We won’t forget.
    When have they said that? And what is in the EU - Syria Co-operation Deal that isn't in the UK EU deal? And whose fault is that if the UK failed to secure as good a deal as Assad did...?

    A basic principle of negotiation. Don't fuck up the deal then complain to the counter-party about its terms. I remember the Woolies Commercial Director trying that on the year before they folded. The deal wasn't generous enough in various parameters. "But those were the terms you inserted into the deal and signed".
    We’re talking about the vaccine stuff. They made Syria exempt. Nothing to do with our trade deal.
    Yes. They discriminated against the UK and only the UK. Oh ok, and America, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea etc. We are the victims here!
    No, part of their idiocy was precisely the implication that all of the countries you name are less desirable than Assad. We all got insulted. We will all remember it.
    Less in need than Syrians. You may choose to be insulted. I will remember to keep laughing that you feel insulted.
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
    It is all a distraction to fill news cycles! All of it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    MattW said:

    First I have seen on the outcome of the "inspections" of the Pfizer plant in Belgium. From the Guardian:

    "Gallina, shaken by the move, dived into the customs records to find evidence that AstraZeneca had shipped EU-produced doses to the UK – but without success."

    (Gallina is the EU vaccine supply negotiation czar. "The move" is the AZ reduction in available supply.)
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/coronavirus-what-is-eu-medical-equipment-scheme-why-did-uk-opt-out

    I think it quite possible that the politicians involved in this - VDL, Gallina, Marcon etc - actually believe(d)

    - AZN was sending the output to the UK, the plant was fine
    - The UK plant(s) was producing vast quantities of vaccine

    All they need to do was press the magic button, and the evil Brits and their evil company would be pilloried and a river of vaccine would flow.

    The advantage of this belief was that all that they needed to do to fix a vast problem, was to make some speeches. Sign a few documents.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    For once, I am pleased to say a very well done to the government, not just on vaccine procurement generally but particularly for their response to the last few days.

    Unlike most on here, they understood this is political posturing and unhelpful pantomime from the EU, that vaccines procured by the UK will continue to arrive from the EU, and that the only benefit from escalation would be a short term polling boost back home. In the best British traditions, keeping calm and quietly getting an assurance that deliveries of vaccines will continue was entirely the right response.

    Yes, I agree that the government response has been sound.

    Newspapers and PB armchair Generals talking of war, less so...
    Question if I may, @Foxy .

    If there is a Europe wide rollout, will prioritising "hot spots" or similar first be a more effective strategy than by distribution by population ratios? Or is it much of a muchness?
    Gotta go shortly, but I understand that it is up to each country to choose who to immunise first. By the nature of their health care systems, many won't have age registers of their older population, unlike the NHS. That is a problem that they should have planned for.

    Italy has focused on Health and Social Care workers, who have had 80% of their rollout. Keeping the elderly isolated and Health Care running is an interesting approach, but not necessarily a bad one. Hospital acquired disease is a common phenomenon everywhere, and in the UK immunised people are also supposed to isolate anyway.

    We will see different approaches in different places, as we did in Sweden in the summer. It will be fertile information for infectious disease epidemiologists for years to come.
    I don't think that was the question. The issue is whether allocating EU procured vaccines on a per capita basis is a sound pan-EU strategy, as opposed to targeting them at countries that appear to need them most urgently.

    Although of course, the speed at which the virus moves means that assuming any country is in a position where they can afford to wait is a dangerous game.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    edited January 2021
    Quite enjoying that the "Robin Hood Society" which promotes Robin Hood is now being followed on Twitter by 50k baffled traders :-) .

    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355225412180307972
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355191338745159685
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355139710356762629

    It reminds of the time that thousands of cricket people followed a lady called @TheAshes. I think she got a TMS interview out of it.

    https://twitter.com/theashes/status/1303489551260954624
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    For once, I am pleased to say a very well done to the government, not just on vaccine procurement generally but particularly for their response to the last few days.

    Unlike most on here, they understood this is political posturing and unhelpful pantomime from the EU, that vaccines procured by the UK will continue to arrive from the EU, and that the only benefit from escalation would be a short term polling boost back home. In the best British traditions, keeping calm and quietly getting an assurance that deliveries of vaccines will continue was entirely the right response.

    Yes, I agree that the government response has been sound.

    Newspapers and PB armchair Generals talking of war, less so...
    Question if I may, @Foxy .

    If there is a Europe wide rollout, will prioritising "hot spots" or similar first be a more effective strategy than by distribution by population ratios? Or is it much of a muchness?
    Gotta go shortly, but I understand that it is up to each country to choose who to immunise first. By the nature of their health care systems, many won't have age registers of their older population, unlike the NHS. That is a problem that they should have planned for.

    Italy has focused on Health and Social Care workers, who have had 80% of their rollout. Keeping the elderly isolated and Health Care running is an interesting approach, but not necessarily a bad one. Hospital acquired disease is a common phenomenon everywhere, and in the UK immunised people are also supposed to isolate anyway.

    We will see different approaches in different places, as we did in Sweden in the summer. It will be fertile information for infectious disease epidemiologists for years to come.
    I don't think that was the question. The issue is whether allocating EU procured vaccines on a per capita basis is a sound pan-EU strategy, as opposed to targeting them at countries that appear to need them most urgently.

    Although of course, the speed at which the virus moves means that assuming any country is in a position where they can afford to wait is a dangerous game.
    Thanks, both.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Scott_xP said:

    The new Business Secretary has put a stop to that (for now).

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1354573344578936832
    A fairly safe assumption is that the previous Bus Sec thought it a good idea to see if they could remove some rights and that the new one disagrees?
    Alternatively - someone in the department thought that during the changeover, it was good idea to try creating policies and then saddling the new minister with them.

    No, I'm not joking. There are a number of ministerial memoirs from various political parties, with ministers discovering that policies have been created in their name, publicly, before they had actually entered the building. I remember one, where the permanent secretary tried telling the Minister it was very rude to cancel policies he wasn't responsible for and didn't want.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
    It is all a distraction to fill news cycles! All of it.
    And the February Pfizer production is below what Pfizer is contracted to deliver. In fact total deliveries for February are less than the EU is contracted to receive (for itself).

    Now you may think that issue is fixed and the EU will let Pfizer send their February UK deliveries to the UK - I don't think it is resolved and in 2 weeks time this is going to blow up again - and it will be way more personal.
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Boris spoke to Ursula von der Leyen last night where she confirmed contractural supply of vaccines to the UK would be unaffected

    Daily Mail stirring the pot by the sounds of it
  • Foxy said:

    FPT

    Scottish independence?
    Northern Irish cessation?

    It’s just possible I was being a bit facetious, and having a laugh at the hyperbole in “won’t survive”.

    As often happens, there’s an underlying assumption that a plurality in England or Wales even cares whether Scotland or NI stay in the Union.
    That's true - and Northern Ireland might very well go eventually, regardless of the EU situation, because of a combination of demographic change and its special status under international treaty.

    HOWEVER - what nobody writing here seems to have appreciated yet, although you can be bloody certain that the First Minister of Scotland has, is that the worse relations between the UK and the EU become, the more remote the prospect of Scottish independence becomes also.

    It's quite simple really. When you get down to brass tacks, the sole purpose of the Act of Union was to strip Scotland of its ability to make common cause with a hostile foreign power and surround England. The rest of it - including free trade, the equivalent money, and unrestricted access to the colonies - was just about providing generous enough terms and guarantees to persuade the Scottish Parliament to accept. Thus, each time the EU becomes that little bit less friendly, the greater the incentive becomes for Westminster to hold on to Scotland at all costs.

    Watch what happens over the next few years. If the UK-EU relationship continues along the trajectory established by this month's disastrous events then it's very easy to envision an end point at which, after a report from a constitutional commission or some such thing, Westminster passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - probably entailing yet more devolution, especially with respect to tax-raising powers - but which also declares Great Britain a perpetual union and rules secession to be illegal forever.

    Going right back to pre-devolution days and the "Independence in Europe" campaign, the vision of the independence movement has always been of Scotland and the remainder of the UK sitting peaceably side by side within a wider community of friendly powers. If most of the other powers cease to be friendly then that vision evaporates. It's that simple.
    Yes, there are increasing signs that Brexit will be quite a hostile one, with the Brexiteers eager to deflect any criticism of their pet project. The EU meanwhile is demonstrating what third country status means, and has no interest in reversing Brexit. They are glad to be rid of us, and I don't blame them.

    While I think Scotland would have quite a lot to deal with on a hostile border at Gretna Green, I think the Scottish attitude to the Auld Alliance is quite different to the English one.

    There was a poll too this week that showed a Welsh majority for Rejoin, and that would have even more complex problems.

    The problem is that Brexit was always a project of English Nationalism, so as inevitably the sunlight uplands are shown to be barren, inevitably the English government will be blamed. That is why the United Kingdom is doomed. It is only a matter of when and how now.
    Yesterday showed us that "third party status" means we are behind Syria in the EU's affection.

    Duly noted.
    We literally demanded 3rd country status. Our doing, not theirs.

    It appears that we didn't understand what that actually meant.
    You’re missing the point. We want to be a third country. Being told, however, that other third countries, including that of the murderous Assad, will be treated better than us is, well let’s use the diplomatic speak of “disappointing”. We won’t forget.
    When have they said that? And what is in the EU - Syria Co-operation Deal that isn't in the UK EU deal? And whose fault is that if the UK failed to secure as good a deal as Assad did...?

    A basic principle of negotiation. Don't fuck up the deal then complain to the counter-party about its terms. I remember the Woolies Commercial Director trying that on the year before they folded. The deal wasn't generous enough in various parameters. "But those were the terms you inserted into the deal and signed".
    Hmm. Well the France- Syria Cooperation deal dates to 1977. But in 2012 France declared that the Syrian Opposition Forces were the legitimate government of the country and have never revoked that decision. They do not recognise the Assad regime (and have since taken part in bombing the country) and so I have some difficulty with the concept that they would be looking to adhere to the letter of a deal they formally had with a regime they no longer recognise as legitimate.

    Meanwhile in answer to your question, the UK EU Trade Agreement states:

    "We will continue to do everything in our power to maintain the flow of medicines to all parts of the UK and the EU."

    So I would suggest your comments about the relative merits of the trade agreements are something of a red herring.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Over the last week the EU approach seems to be largely predicated on an assumption of some level of UK duplicity/conspiracy and manipulation of vaccine supplies. Whereas their problem is that actually their fights are not with the UK but with the vaccine suppliers directly. The UK are simply benefitting from the contractual circumstances that are in place. And unless the EU can identify actual evidence of contractual breaches or circumvention, then they really have nowhere to go.

    They would be better to step back from confrontation, accept they're behind the curve and will pay a price for a couple of months, and start putting serious efforts into constructive engagement. The urgent need for the EU (and indeed for the world in general) is not just to secure access to existing supplies. It is to massively scale up production. Which their current approach is just seriously detracting from and hindering.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    MattW said:

    Quite enjoying that the "Robin Hood Society" which promotes Robin Hood is now being followed on Twitter by 50k baffled traders :-) .

    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355225412180307972
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355191338745159685
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355139710356762629

    It reminds of the time that thousands of cricket people followed a lady called @TheAshes. I think she got a TMS interview out of it.

    https://twitter.com/theashes/status/1303489551260954624

    It doesn't look anything like him!
  • Foxy said:

    FPT

    Scottish independence?
    Northern Irish cessation?

    It’s just possible I was being a bit facetious, and having a laugh at the hyperbole in “won’t survive”.

    As often happens, there’s an underlying assumption that a plurality in England or Wales even cares whether Scotland or NI stay in the Union.
    That's true - and Northern Ireland might very well go eventually, regardless of the EU situation, because of a combination of demographic change and its special status under international treaty.
    passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - especially with respect to tax
    .

    There was a poll too this week that showed
    Yesterday showed us that "third party status" means we are behind Syria in the EU's affection.

    Duly noted.
    We literally demanded 3rd country status. Our doing, not theirs.

    It appears that we didn't understand what that actually meant.
    You’re missing the point. We want to be a third country. Being told, however, that other third countries, including that of the murderous Assad, will be treated better than us is, well let’s use the diplomatic speak of “disappointing”. We won’t forget.
    When have they said that? And what is in the EU - Syria Co-operation Deal that isn't in the UK EU deal? And whose fault is that if the UK failed to secure as good a deal as Assad did...?

    A basic principle of negotiation. Don't fuck up the deal then complain to the counter-party about its terms. I remember the Woolies Commercial Director trying that on the year before they folded. The deal wasn't generous enough in various parameters. "But those were the terms you inserted into the deal and signed".
    We’re talking about the vaccine stuff. They made Syria exempt. Nothing to do with our trade deal.
    Yes. They discriminated against the UK and only the UK. Oh ok, and America, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea etc. We are the victims here!
    No, part of their idiocy was precisely the implication that all of the countries you name are less desirable than Assad. We all got insulted. We will all remember it.
    Less in need than Syrians. You may choose to be insulted. I will remember to keep laughing that you feel insulted.
    “In need”? I’m not sure you understand the underlying points here. Humanitarian distribution of vaccines is a separate issue, and one in which we are taking a lead.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
    It is all a distraction to fill news cycles! All of it.
    Erm. Vaccinating 8 million people at approaching 12% of our population when most of the EU is languishing at c. 1-2% is not a distraction nor mere news cycle filling.

    It's life and death.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
  • Roger said:

    The nice thing about this nation of philosophers is that they'll always do whatever it takes to make sure the far right never wins. I wish I could trust the UK to do the same

    “This nation of philosophers” being the country that still thinks Napoleon was a great ruler, worthy of reverence and admiration, rather than seeing his era as a catastrophe for France an the rest of Europe?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    Guardian reported that the 'audits' had not found anything.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MattW said:

    Quite enjoying that the "Robin Hood Society" which promotes Robin Hood is now being followed on Twitter by 50k baffled traders :-) .

    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355225412180307972
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355191338745159685
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355139710356762629

    It reminds of the time that thousands of cricket people followed a lady called @TheAshes. I think she got a TMS interview out of it.

    https://twitter.com/theashes/status/1303489551260954624

    She got an expenses paid trip to Australia!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Boris spoke to Ursula von der Leyen last night where she confirmed contractural supply of vaccines to the UK would be unaffected

    Daily Mail stirring the pot by the sounds of it
    Lets wait and see...if Pfizer can't ramp up production in the next week or two, the EU still has in place rules to play silly buggers....also remember they rely on UK made raw materials, if the UK was to think a block was coming now, they might block exports of the raw materials....this way the EU still recieve the raw materials and then magically find Pfizer haven't played fair in 2 weeks.

    What the EC have shown over the past week, they are willing to do anything to try to avoiding admit any failure, including putting lives at risk
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    Guardian reported that the 'audits' had not found anything.
    Of AZN....which is totally irrelevant to the situation.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    Christ alive...you want to know how footballers can't stop getting Covid, despite their privileged position.

    Just watched Ben Foster video (Watford GK), Watford gone to COVID central aka London, for a match. They are staying in a hotel isolated from us the plebs, with everything they needs, but he goes pottering off to a coffee shop.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Those praising British vaccine policy are well aware of our failings early on with this pandemic. The NYT piece, like Janet Street-Porter's in yesterday's Mail, acknowledge that. Some of our deaths are undoubtedly also not down to the Gov't but our freedom aspiring recalcitrance and, continued, refusal to wear masks, socially distance and follow rules. But yes we messed it up.

    However, as vaccines are the way out of this I strongly suggest you wait for the final tally rather than the one at half-time.
    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    MattW said:

    Quite enjoying that the "Robin Hood Society" which promotes Robin Hood is now being followed on Twitter by 50k baffled traders :-) .

    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355225412180307972
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355191338745159685
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355139710356762629

    It reminds of the time that thousands of cricket people followed a lady called @TheAshes. I think she got a TMS interview out of it.

    https://twitter.com/theashes/status/1303489551260954624

    I once had a girlfriend whose surname was Kerekes. I believe it is Hungarian for "wheeler".
  • MundoMundo Posts: 36

    Roger said:

    The nice thing about this nation of philosophers is that they'll always do whatever it takes to make sure the far right never wins. I wish I could trust the UK to do the same

    “This nation of philosophers” being the country that still thinks Napoleon was a great ruler, worthy of reverence and admiration, rather than seeing his era as a catastrophe for France an the rest of Europe?
    Wasn’t it Napoleon who said: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

    Might explain Boris’ unusually calm statesmanlike behaviour
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Such a long lockdown is against Boris' instincts and beliefs. I can see us having that long a lockdown, but not because Boris has some evil genius 4D chess moves to ensure it occurs via the help of the EU playing silly buggers and giving him protection against his own party. Somebody like Blair, yes, Boris, the man of the regular pronouncements of sunny uplands are only weeks away less so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Roger said:

    The nice thing about this nation of philosophers is that they'll always do whatever it takes to make sure the far right never wins. I wish I could trust the UK to do the same

    “This nation of philosophers” being the country that still thinks Napoleon was a great ruler, worthy of reverence and admiration, rather than seeing his era as a catastrophe for France an the rest of Europe?
    Not to mention the substantial group who think that Vichy was a good idea...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Those praising British vaccine policy are well aware of our failings early on with this pandemic. The NYT piece, like Janet Street-Porter's in yesterday's Mail, acknowledge that. Some of our deaths are undoubtedly also not down to the Gov't but our freedom aspiring recalcitrance and, continued, refusal to wear masks, socially distance and follow rules. But yes we messed it up.

    However, as vaccines are the way out of this I strongly suggest you wait for the final tally rather than the one at half-time.
    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia
    Little minds get boggled easily - Ode to Joy is little better. What is your view of Macron's anti-vax comments?
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    What else would you have him do? If the EU is willing to kill British citizens (by blocking vaccine supplies) to cover up their own failings then from one perspective the only measured response would be to declare war - which clearly isn't measured either so is not worth considering.

    All Johnson can do at that point as far as immediate response is take measures internally to try and limit the damage whilst making the EU the pariah on the world stage. Of course he can also make approaches to all the drugs companies pointing out how nice it would be to be operating in a country that doesn't accuse you of murdering people for profit and slag off your product as useless.

  • eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
    It is all a distraction to fill news cycles! All of it.
    And the February Pfizer production is below what Pfizer is contracted to deliver. In fact total deliveries for February are less than the EU is contracted to receive (for itself).

    Now you may think that issue is fixed and the EU will let Pfizer send their February UK deliveries to the UK - I don't think it is resolved and in 2 weeks time this is going to blow up again - and it will be way more personal.
    I didnt think there was an issue around delivery, I have been clear all week that the deliveries from the EU to UK will continue. The EU rules say they will, and the UK govt says they will. They will do!

    It is in no-ones interests to stop them, over 2021 the UK will likely export many many more vaccines than they import, why would the EU want to stop vaccine trade? (The Wrexham plant has 300m capacity, the new one announced this week is 60m).

    The issues are the EU cocking up, then taking an aggressive posture with the UK as scapegoat to reduce the blame the EU and national govts get, and their continued failure to actually try and resolve their problems with funding and the pharma companies themselves. But it has not been about vaccine exports to the UK being stopped, it is smoke and mirrors, hence the total lack of concern from the UK govt.
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Boris spoke to Ursula von der Leyen last night where she confirmed contractural supply of vaccines to the UK would be unaffected

    Daily Mail stirring the pot by the sounds of it
    Of course the Daily Mail are stirring the pot.
    It's what always they do, because it's a commercially successful strategy
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    What else would you have him do? If the EU is willing to kill British citizens (by blocking vaccine supplies) to cover up their own failings then from one perspective the only measured response would be to declare war - which clearly isn't measured either so is not worth considering.

    All Johnson can do at that point as far as immediate response is take measures internally to try and limit the damage whilst making the EU the pariah on the world stage. Of course he can also make approaches to all the drugs companies pointing out how nice it would be to be operating in a country that doesn't accuse you of murdering people for profit and slag off your product as useless.

    I explained the other more likely option down thread. That the UK is forced to take a safety first approach and stop using Pfizer as a first jab from now on, storing up whatever we have left to ensure that people can get their 2nd doses starting in ~8 weeks.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    He's already pre-emptively extended lockdown - frankly when the stats were looking so good that one can only assume he is determined to be exceptionally cautious (/reckless if you include the economy as a consideration) and saw it was going to be very hard to extend if he waited another 2 weeks for the current trend to continue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    MattW said:

    Quite enjoying that the "Robin Hood Society" which promotes Robin Hood is now being followed on Twitter by 50k baffled traders :-) .

    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355225412180307972
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355191338745159685
    https://twitter.com/robinhood/status/1355139710356762629

    It reminds of the time that thousands of cricket people followed a lady called @TheAshes. I think she got a TMS interview out of it.

    https://twitter.com/theashes/status/1303489551260954624

    Ha ha, love it when cultures collide online!

    IIRC, @TheAshes, a young American childcare worker called Ashley, ended up as a VIP guest at the final Test Match of the series, with Qantas flying her business class to Australia.

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/ashley-kerekes-aka-theashes-is-packing-for-a-trip-to-australia-this-christmas/news-story/55a8ceb0d7c087c88ec4ab551a7326e4
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    eek said:

    alex_ said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Over the last week the EU approach seems to be largely predicated on an assumption of some level of UK duplicity/conspiracy and manipulation of vaccine supplies. Whereas their problem is that actually their fights are not with the UK but with the vaccine suppliers directly. The UK are simply benefitting from the contractual circumstances that are in place. And unless the EU can identify actual evidence of contractual breaches or circumvention, then they really have nowhere to go.

    They would be better to step back from confrontation, accept they're behind the curve and will pay a price for a couple of months, and start putting serious efforts into constructive engagement. The urgent need for the EU (and indeed for the world in general) is not just to secure access to existing supplies. It is to massively scale up production. Which their current approach is just seriously detracting from and hindering.
    We aren't benefiting from the contractual circumstances that are in place.

    We are benefiting from the fact that

    1) we were 3 months earlier in signing agreements,
    2) gave them the money up front so the companies could do what they needed to do to expand production
    3) didn't argue over price nor liability.

    The EU's biggest problem is that 4 EU countries wanted to do the same and the EU told them they would do the work and then completely screwed it up.
    In other words... the contractual circumstances in place. All of which are a consequence of your 3 points. And why the EU don't have a (contractual) leg to stand on. And look bl**dy ridiculous with statements like "vaccine hijacking", "paying over the odds to usurp priority", "not playing fair"...
  • I know somebody who is going for their jab next week at a centre that has so far only been doing Pfizer jabs. Will be interesting to see what they get.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    eek said:

    alex_ said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Over the last week the EU approach seems to be largely predicated on an assumption of some level of UK duplicity/conspiracy and manipulation of vaccine supplies. Whereas their problem is that actually their fights are not with the UK but with the vaccine suppliers directly. The UK are simply benefitting from the contractual circumstances that are in place. And unless the EU can identify actual evidence of contractual breaches or circumvention, then they really have nowhere to go.

    They would be better to step back from confrontation, accept they're behind the curve and will pay a price for a couple of months, and start putting serious efforts into constructive engagement. The urgent need for the EU (and indeed for the world in general) is not just to secure access to existing supplies. It is to massively scale up production. Which their current approach is just seriously detracting from and hindering.
    We aren't benefiting from the contractual circumstances that are in place.

    We are benefiting from the fact that

    1) we were 3 months earlier in signing agreements,
    2) gave them the money up front so the companies could do what they needed to do to expand production
    3) didn't argue over price nor liability.

    The EU's biggest problem is that 4 EU countries wanted to do the same and the EU told them they would do the work and then completely screwed it up.
    IIRC the liability was simply extending the standard UK liability scheme for vaccines to cover this one? Vaccine Damages Act...

    Foxy?
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
    It is all a distraction to fill news cycles! All of it.
    Erm. Vaccinating 8 million people at approaching 12% of our population when most of the EU is languishing at c. 1-2% is not a distraction nor mere news cycle filling.

    It's life and death.
    I dont really understand the point of your post? The EU is above the global average and ahead of other rich countries like Japan and Canada in their vaccination efforts. Just because their neighbour is, for once, doing much better does not mean that the new EU policy is not about distraction rather than stopping trade.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,258
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Second jabs won't start being overdue until April on the 12 week schedule.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    malcolmg said:

    FPT

    Scottish independence?
    Northern Irish cessation?

    It’s just possible I was being a bit facetious, and having a laugh at the hyperbole in “won’t survive”.

    As often happens, there’s an underlying assumption that a plurality in England or Wales even cares whether Scotland or NI stay in the Union.
    That's true - and Northern Ireland might very well go eventually, regardless of the EU situation, because of a combination of demographic change and its special status under international treaty.

    HOWEVER - what nobody writing here seems to have appreciated yet, although you can be bloody certain that the First Minister of Scotland has, is that the worse relations between the UK and the EU become, the more remote the prospect of Scottish independence becomes also.

    It's quite simple really. When you get down to brass tacks, the sole purpose of the Act of Union was to strip Scotland of its ability to make common cause with a hostile foreign power and surround England. The rest of it - including free trade, the equivalent money, and unrestricted access to the colonies - was just about providing generous enough terms and guarantees to persuade the Scottish Parliament to accept. Thus, each time the EU becomes that little bit less friendly, the greater the incentive becomes for Westminster to hold on to Scotland at all costs.

    Watch what happens over the next few years. If the UK-EU relationship continues along the trajectory established by this month's disastrous events then it's very easy to envision an end point at which, after a report from a constitutional commission or some such thing, Westminster passes legislation that creates a federal or quasi-federal system - probably entailing yet more devolution, especially with respect to tax-raising powers - but which also declares Great Britain a perpetual union and rules secession to be illegal forever.

    Going right back to pre-devolution days and the "Independence in Europe" campaign, the vision of the independence movement has always been of Scotland and the remainder of the UK sitting peaceably side by side within a wider community of friendly powers. If most of the other powers cease to be friendly then that vision evaporates. It's that simple.
    Usual wishful thinking bollox on here, EU or not we want out of the shackles and chains of being treated as a colony by England. F all to do with EU we just want out.
    It’s the only question that matters for Scottish independence isn’t it?

    Are a majority of Scots happy that they get one vote each which weighs the same as anyone anywhere in the U.K., and that the concept of Scotland and “Scotland’s view” is no more meaningful in the Commons then Lancashire and “Lancashire’s view” is?

    If not, then Scotland should be independent. No point in a union with Scotland if the Scots don’t want it.
    That is certainly my opinion and I am sure many others, it should be up to people in Scotland to decide , not some clown in Downing Street.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    eek said:

    alex_ said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    Over the last week the EU approach seems to be largely predicated on an assumption of some level of UK duplicity/conspiracy and manipulation of vaccine supplies. Whereas their problem is that actually their fights are not with the UK but with the vaccine suppliers directly. The UK are simply benefitting from the contractual circumstances that are in place. And unless the EU can identify actual evidence of contractual breaches or circumvention, then they really have nowhere to go.

    They would be better to step back from confrontation, accept they're behind the curve and will pay a price for a couple of months, and start putting serious efforts into constructive engagement. The urgent need for the EU (and indeed for the world in general) is not just to secure access to existing supplies. It is to massively scale up production. Which their current approach is just seriously detracting from and hindering.
    We aren't benefiting from the contractual circumstances that are in place.

    We are benefiting from the fact that

    1) we were 3 months earlier in signing agreements,
    2) gave them the money up front so the companies could do what they needed to do to expand production
    3) didn't argue over price nor liability.

    The EU's biggest problem is that 4 EU countries wanted to do the same and the EU told them they would do the work and then completely screwed it up.
    IIRC the liability was simply extending the standard UK liability scheme for vaccines to cover this one? Vaccine Damages Act...

    Foxy?
    But compare our rules with the EU ones...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    What else would you have him do? If the EU is willing to kill British citizens (by blocking vaccine supplies) to cover up their own failings then from one perspective the only measured response would be to declare war - which clearly isn't measured either so is not worth considering.

    All Johnson can do at that point as far as immediate response is take measures internally to try and limit the damage whilst making the EU the pariah on the world stage. Of course he can also make approaches to all the drugs companies pointing out how nice it would be to be operating in a country that doesn't accuse you of murdering people for profit and slag off your product as useless.

    The alternative to simply announce the issue would be to retaliate.... Which is in no-ones interest - the vaccine supply chains are complicated and delicate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Second jabs won't start being overdue until April on the 12 week schedule.
    People who got it from mid-December haven't had 2nd doses. That doesn't get you to April.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Well, I have been horrified by the mismanagement of the pandemic by the UK government so far (with the exception of vaccination) and I am equally horrified by the mess the EU have made in providing for their own citizens to be vaccinated. I don't understand why anyone would use either one of those to excuse the other.
    Roger , you have been on here long enough to have heard the constant ringing of Jingo bells. Never mind the 6 figures dead , some on here just think Tories are awesome because we have some vaccines. Happy that they kill more than anyone with their incompetence and justify it all because we can jab the few left.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    He's already pre-emptively extended lockdown - frankly when the stats were looking so good that one can only assume he is determined to be exceptionally cautious (/reckless if you include the economy as a consideration) and saw it was going to be very hard to extend if he waited another 2 weeks for the current trend to continue.
    Is it more reckless to open the economy again and then have to close it or open the economy 2 weeks later and not have to close it.

    I imagine that my local pub and a most others don't want to open only to be closed again.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Christ alive...you want to know how footballers can't stop getting Covid, despite their privileged position.

    Just watched Ben Foster video (Watford GK), Watford gone to COVID central aka London, for a match. They are staying in a hotel isolated from us the plebs, with everything they needs, but he goes pottering off to a coffee shop.

    Isn’t is quite amazing how sportspeople really don’t seem to understand how to do what they’re told!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited January 2021
    The EU has shit the bed over vaccines. No doubt about it.

    That does not mean that Boris is sleeping in clean sheets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Well, I have been horrified by the mismanagement of the pandemic by the UK government so far (with the exception of vaccination) and I am equally horrified by the mess the EU have made in providing for their own citizens to be vaccinated. I don't understand why anyone would use either one of those to excuse the other.
    Well said. Theres no reason praise or criticism cannot be given where it is warranted to either side.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Those praising British vaccine policy are well aware of our failings early on with this pandemic. The NYT piece, like Janet Street-Porter's in yesterday's Mail, acknowledge that. Some of our deaths are undoubtedly also not down to the Gov't but our freedom aspiring recalcitrance and, continued, refusal to wear masks, socially distance and follow rules. But yes we messed it up.

    However, as vaccines are the way out of this I strongly suggest you wait for the final tally rather than the one at half-time.
    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia
    Little minds get boggled easily - Ode to Joy is little better. What is your view of Macron's anti-vax comments?
    Perhaps he just got bored with the English Exceptionalists and decided to follow the old proverb "Those who the gods wish to destroy they first make mad" and it seems to be working
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    Christ alive...you want to know how footballers can't stop getting Covid, despite their privileged position.

    Just watched Ben Foster video (Watford GK), Watford gone to COVID central aka London, for a match. They are staying in a hotel isolated from us the plebs, with everything they needs, but he goes pottering off to a coffee shop.

    Isn’t is quite amazing how sportspeople really don’t seem to understand how to do what they’re told!
    Not just that, but if they get long COVID, it could completely screw their career. Being miles off the pace for fitness for 6-12 months, it is far from certain you ever get to play at the top level again, as new players come in etc.

    I believe 2 Newcastle players are still too ill to even be considered for selection, as doing much more than very light work outs are too draining.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    To Malcolm, much as I admire your assertion that the Scots want to break free I don't believe it.

    If there is another indyref I no longer believe the Scots will vote for independence. That's based on talking to people who know your country and live there, recent polling and the latest appalling behaviour by the EU.

    Well your government is running scared and acting like despots to prevent a vote. I may well be wrong but regardless if we live in a democracy , Scotland should be allowed to vote on the matter without needing permission from England. This is no union of equals and English government treating Scotland like a colony cannot have a happy ending. You cannot treat people like crap and expect them to just accept it forever.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    Scott_xP said:

    Well we know what will be written now...The EU, willing to throw your Granny under this, rather than admit a mistake.

    But they did admit it was a mistake, and reversed it within hours.

    How many mistakes has BoZo admitted while 100,000 people died?
    The EU have NOT admitted to mistakes on their approach to vaccines. Their policies and horrendous bureaucratic bungling are going to continue to wreak havoc in the EU for the rest of this year and probably well into next.
    They have made a complete horlicks of it for sure, they are as badly run as the UK.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    Yes, but they've made many wild accusations so far without proof - as well as indulging in blatant political distraction by sabre rattling up to the ridiculous actions over NI - so it is reasonable to assume AZ is innocent until proven guilty rather than treat both outcomes as equally plausible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Sandpit said:

    Christ alive...you want to know how footballers can't stop getting Covid, despite their privileged position.

    Just watched Ben Foster video (Watford GK), Watford gone to COVID central aka London, for a match. They are staying in a hotel isolated from us the plebs, with everything they needs, but he goes pottering off to a coffee shop.

    Isn’t is quite amazing how sportspeople really don’t seem to understand how to do what they’re told!
    I would wager that is another example of the standard hypocrisy we have seen in this epidemic...

    "Stay at home. Weld people in their houses. Call out the Army and start shooting. Right, anyone up for a rave Friday? We've got 100 people coming and awesome DJ"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Well we know what will be written now...The EU, willing to throw your Granny under this, rather than admit a mistake.

    But they did admit it was a mistake, and reversed it within hours.

    How many mistakes has BoZo admitted while 100,000 people died?
    The EU have NOT admitted to mistakes on their approach to vaccines. Their policies and horrendous bureaucratic bungling are going to continue to wreak havoc in the EU for the rest of this year and probably well into next.
    They have made a complete horlicks of it for sure, they are as badly run as the UK.
    If only everyone was as good as the SNP think they are.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,258

    Scott_xP said:

    The new Business Secretary has put a stop to that (for now).

    https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1354573344578936832
    A fairly safe assumption is that the previous Bus Sec thought it a good idea to see if they could remove some rights and that the new one disagrees?
    Alternatively - someone in the department thought that during the changeover, it was good idea to try creating policies and then saddling the new minister with them.

    No, I'm not joking. There are a number of ministerial memoirs from various political parties, with ministers discovering that policies have been created in their name, publicly, before they had actually entered the building. I remember one, where the permanent secretary tried telling the Minister it was very rude to cancel policies he wasn't responsible for and didn't want.
    A friend of mine was fairly senior in MAFF or whatever it is currently called (he has since left). I asked him what his former colleagues thought of Brexit. He said they mostly thought it was great, they can think up policies again rather than negotiate interminably with EU institutions. No more expenses-paid trips to Brussels though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021
    kle4 said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    Yes, but they've made many wild accusations so far without proof - as well as indulging in blatant political distraction by sabre rattling up to the ridiculous actions over NI - so it is reasonable to assume AZ is innocent until proven guilty rather than treat both outcomes as equally plausible.
    There was nothing in the contract that the EU published that contradicted what the AZN boss said. At very best there were a couple of clauses in there which could be result in a very long court battle arguing over where a comma appeared and what that meant.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Roger said:



    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia

    Latest score: Two world wars, one world cup and vaccination program.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT

    "protection money". Wow...

    Its a trading block. Which we clearly need. With the Department of International Trade advising UK companies they need to set up in the EU to trade there.

    They are being advised to set up a local office (and I’m sure EU companies are getting the same advice for here). It’s really not the same thing.
    The same advice is indeed the case in reverse. EU companies need a UK subsidiary to effectively trade in the UK. Living proof that the border as created by the UK government doesn't allow trade without barriers so costly as to make it uneconomical.

    That the UK government had No Clue about any of this should be a surprise but isn't. They had no idea how the border actually operated. Which is why most of the information that companies needed to "check, change, go" was not available.
    Sunny uplands...

    https://twitter.com/Helen121/status/1355207846560997376?s=19
    So that explains why instead of improving workers rights we are trying to remove some.

    The new Business Secretary has put a stop to that (for now).
    I have never understood this drive in bankster "capitalism". A very basic principle of capitalism is that in order to sell your product/service you need customers who have the desire to buy and the means to do so. Having a workforce on poverty wages in unsafe conditions just increases the likelihood of poor quality and output and reduces viable punters.

    Or, radical idea as it seems to be for many companies, pay your employees decently, keep them safe productive and committed, make them the consumers you need. Every worker with a disposable income creates jobs for other people.
    Brain of Britain that one.
  • Just catching up on the last thread. Saw this rubbish

    "I think what should concern us most now is not that EU leaders have made mistakes, that is clear enough, but that the UK now lives in a separate information space. The way the UK is processing information is increasingly irrational. The feral British press continues to launch wild and inaccurate claims that are not based on objective facts but the hostility of black propaganda. Playing a zero sum game with the EU is crazy when the Tories have managed to undermine the entire network of alliances we have relied on for decades, both in the EU and beyond. So, by all means create a hullabaloo about vaccines and ignore the staggering 100,000+ UK death toll the total ineptitude of the UK Covid response and of course the increasingly catastrophic economic numbers. Whip up hatred of whoever you choose, but understand you are being manipulated by black propaganda and the price of this may well be fatal to your entire democratic tradition. There is no real hostility in the EU towards the UK, but there is increasingly a mixture of pity and alarm at the unhinged way huge sections of the UK media are determined to use any excuse to trash the UK/EU relationship. It is now a significant working assumption in several EU capitals that the UK will not survive the next decade. Beyond a few whiny articles from the likes of Gordon Brown, I don't see much alarm about the existential threat to your whole country. You might have thought that the Political/PR-Media complex of the likes of Gove, Cummings and - Yes- Johnson have caused sufficient damage. It seems not. Rabble rousing rubbish now seems the default option and I now genuinely fear that black propaganda is going to destroy the country. Trump is gone, but the increasingly unhinged way the UK media shapes the debate is destroying courtesy and even truth and that is a sure-fire way to a very dark place."

    Thought, ah the Remainiac Charter.

    Then saw

    Mike Smithson : Great post

    I groaned.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    malcolmg said:

    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Well, I have been horrified by the mismanagement of the pandemic by the UK government so far (with the exception of vaccination) and I am equally horrified by the mess the EU have made in providing for their own citizens to be vaccinated. I don't understand why anyone would use either one of those to excuse the other.
    Roger , you have been on here long enough to have heard the constant ringing of Jingo bells. Never mind the 6 figures dead , some on here just think Tories are awesome because we have some vaccines. Happy that they kill more than anyone with their incompetence and justify it all because we can jab the few left.
    Can I suggest the Government stops sending any more vaccines to Scotland? Just to see what malcy with a propoer grievance looks like.

    Of course, they don't need many anyway, because he's told us there's only a few left alive...
  • Sir John Bell, a professor who is part of the Oxford University vaccine team, has accused French president Emmanuel Macron of "demand management" over his claims the AstraZeneca vaccine is "quasi-ineffective" for the over-65s.

    The professor told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I'm not sure where he got that from."

    He acknowledged an original study only had small numbers of elderly people, with many shielding themselves from the pandemic, but added: "The numbers still pointed toward a very highly effective vaccine but the numbers were small, in fairness, we always accepted that."

    But he said other studies proved "elderly people responded just as well in other age groups" and that "there's really persuasive evidence that this is a protective vaccine in those populations".

    "I suspect this is a bit of demand management from Mr Macron," he added. Pressed if he thinks he is trying to reduce demand, Sir John said: "Well, if he didn't have any vaccine the best thing you could do is reduce demand."
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You are basing this on the EU acting rationally....this week they certainly haven't. They literally went into a supermarket, found they didn't have any of their favourite cereal and so did a big shit in one of the aisles.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Roger said:



    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia

    Latest score: Two world wars, one world cup and vaccination program.
    Oh god. I just had a thought. If there’s fans in the stadiums at the euros... the chants....
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You are basing this on the EU acting rationally....this week they certainly haven't.
    They have acted politically. They have not banned a single vaccine being exported to the UK, and the UK govt are confident that they won't do. For once, trust what the PM is saying!
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,258

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Second jabs won't start being overdue until April on the 12 week schedule.
    People who got it from mid-December haven't had 2nd doses. That doesn't get you to April.
    I assumed they had. My mum had her second jab on 8 January
  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You are basing this on the EU acting rationally....this week they certainly haven't. They literally went into a supermarket, found they didn't have any of their favourite cereal and so did a big shit in one of the aisles.
    “Literally”? I though Juncker had retired?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    If AZ have lied to the EU about deliveries from the EU to UK then the EU would have a justified point?
    AZ is a total distraction....we saw that from the contract release yesterday. It is about the UK getting their deliveries of Pfizer vaccine.
    It is all a distraction to fill news cycles! All of it.
    And the February Pfizer production is below what Pfizer is contracted to deliver. In fact total deliveries for February are less than the EU is contracted to receive (for itself).

    Now you may think that issue is fixed and the EU will let Pfizer send their February UK deliveries to the UK - I don't think it is resolved and in 2 weeks time this is going to blow up again - and it will be way more personal.
    I didnt think there was an issue around delivery, I have been clear all week that the deliveries from the EU to UK will continue. The EU rules say they will, and the UK govt says they will. They will do!

    It is in no-ones interests to stop them, over 2021 the UK will likely export many many more vaccines than they import, why would the EU want to stop vaccine trade? (The Wrexham plant has 300m capacity, the new one announced this week is 60m).

    The issues are the EU cocking up, then taking an aggressive posture with the UK as scapegoat to reduce the blame the EU and national govts get, and their continued failure to actually try and resolve their problems with funding and the pharma companies themselves. But it has not been about vaccine exports to the UK being stopped, it is smoke and mirrors, hence the total lack of concern from the UK govt.
    They were concerned when the NI protocol was invoked and that's the point - it's great the gov have played this right, but when one side is escalating things as a political strategy sometimes they take things further than intended, it gets away from them.

    It's happened once already but fortunately they were able to roll back. But it is why political theater does still matter as you can end up doing more than intended.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Just catching up on the last thread. Saw this rubbish

    "I think what should concern us most now is not that EU leaders have made mistakes, that is clear enough, but that the UK now lives in a separate information space. The way the UK is processing information is increasingly irrational. The feral British press continues to launch wild and inaccurate claims that are not based on objective facts but the hostility of black propaganda. Playing a zero sum game with the EU is crazy when the Tories have managed to undermine the entire network of alliances we have relied on for decades, both in the EU and beyond. So, by all means create a hullabaloo about vaccines and ignore the staggering 100,000+ UK death toll the total ineptitude of the UK Covid response and of course the increasingly catastrophic economic numbers. Whip up hatred of whoever you choose, but understand you are being manipulated by black propaganda and the price of this may well be fatal to your entire democratic tradition. There is no real hostility in the EU towards the UK, but there is increasingly a mixture of pity and alarm at the unhinged way huge sections of the UK media are determined to use any excuse to trash the UK/EU relationship. It is now a significant working assumption in several EU capitals that the UK will not survive the next decade. Beyond a few whiny articles from the likes of Gordon Brown, I don't see much alarm about the existential threat to your whole country. You might have thought that the Political/PR-Media complex of the likes of Gove, Cummings and - Yes- Johnson have caused sufficient damage. It seems not. Rabble rousing rubbish now seems the default option and I now genuinely fear that black propaganda is going to destroy the country. Trump is gone, but the increasingly unhinged way the UK media shapes the debate is destroying courtesy and even truth and that is a sure-fire way to a very dark place."

    Thought, ah the Remainiac Charter.

    Then saw

    Mike Smithson : Great post

    I groaned.

    Some years ago, I was working at a company that had, through success, been taken over twice. Much re-structuring hadn't happened.

    My boss at the time was a Company Man. He parroted the sunny statements from up the line. It Was All Good.

    I was told by various people, that there were plans to rationalise the structure of the company. This included getting rid of the area where we were working. The logic of the decision was strong - I would have done the same.

    My boss furiously denied the rumours. He even arrange for a senior executive to come and deny that there were any such plans. 2 days later they announced exactly what I had been told would happen.

    The payouts were very generous. Even so, there was anger among some. My boss actually cracked - he said things against the company - we would work out our notice. But not too hard etc....

    By the next day, he had snapped back to normal. It Was All Good.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Roger said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Those praising British vaccine policy are well aware of our failings early on with this pandemic. The NYT piece, like Janet Street-Porter's in yesterday's Mail, acknowledge that. Some of our deaths are undoubtedly also not down to the Gov't but our freedom aspiring recalcitrance and, continued, refusal to wear masks, socially distance and follow rules. But yes we messed it up.

    However, as vaccines are the way out of this I strongly suggest you wait for the final tally rather than the one at half-time.
    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia
    Little minds get boggled easily - Ode to Joy is little better. What is your view of Macron's anti-vax comments?
    Perhaps he just got bored with the English Exceptionalists and decided to follow the old proverb "Those who the gods wish to destroy they first make mad" and it seems to be working
    So he makes himself mad! Cute. And pathetic. You know full well that if any government politician had made any comparable remark you'd have been all over it like mould!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Second jabs won't start being overdue until April on the 12 week schedule.
    People who got it from mid-December haven't had 2nd doses. That doesn't get you to April.
    I assumed they had. My mum had her second jab on 8 January
    Some have. The NHS were told to stop giving 2nd doses unless they could be justified on basis of extreme need. For the first week or so of the new year, some NHS regions did carry on a bit regardless, but I think they were "reminded" of the new dosing regime and the drop off was enormous after week one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Jonathan said:

    The EU has shit the bed over vaccines. No doubt about it.

    That does not mean that Boris is sleeping in clean sheets.

    Pithy. It's true.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You'ld hope, wouldn't you? Not that hope would have got you far with the EU this week.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    malcolmg said:

    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Well, I have been horrified by the mismanagement of the pandemic by the UK government so far (with the exception of vaccination) and I am equally horrified by the mess the EU have made in providing for their own citizens to be vaccinated. I don't understand why anyone would use either one of those to excuse the other.
    Roger , you have been on here long enough to have heard the constant ringing of Jingo bells. Never mind the 6 figures dead , some on here just think Tories are awesome because we have some vaccines. Happy that they kill more than anyone with their incompetence and justify it all because we can jab the few left.
    Can I suggest the Government stops sending any more vaccines to Scotland? Just to see what malcy with a propoer grievance looks like.

    Of course, they don't need many anyway, because he's told us there's only a few left alive...
    Hang on, that is not funny. It comes over as plain spiteful. Your comment is not the sort of thing we want on PB.

    Moreover, are you really a Unionist too, or an English colonialist who thinks he owns Scotland (and Wales and NI)?

    We are part of the Union too for the moment, and we paid for the vaccines too. You are behaving just as the EU are in your own eyes.


  • eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You'ld hope, wouldn't you? Not that hope would have got you far with the EU this week.
    It is not hope, it is analysis of self interest.
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) has criticised the EU's announcement of export controls on vaccines produced within the bloc, saying such measures risked prolonging the pandemic.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55860540
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    Chris said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Well, I have been horrified by the mismanagement of the pandemic by the UK government so far (with the exception of vaccination) and I am equally horrified by the mess the EU have made in providing for their own citizens to be vaccinated. I don't understand why anyone would use either one of those to excuse the other.
    Roger , you have been on here long enough to have heard the constant ringing of Jingo bells. Never mind the 6 figures dead , some on here just think Tories are awesome because we have some vaccines. Happy that they kill more than anyone with their incompetence and justify it all because we can jab the few left.
    Can I suggest the Government stops sending any more vaccines to Scotland? Just to see what malcy with a propoer grievance looks like.

    Of course, they don't need many anyway, because he's told us there's only a few left alive...
    Hang on, that is not funny. It comes over as plain spiteful. Your comment is not the sort of thing we want on PB.

    Moreover, are you really a Unionist too, or an English colonialist who thinks he owns Scotland (and Wales and NI)?

    We are part of the Union too for the moment, and we paid for the vaccines too. You are behaving just as the EU are in your own eyes.


    Fuck off, your humourless twat. We are supposed to treat malcy's "the few left" with reverence now are we?

    Pillock.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    Roger said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Chris said:

    In my experience in life the most difficult people to deal with are those who never change their mind.

    Events shift. Facts evolve. So must we.

    I certainly hadn’t fully processed just how bad the EU is likely to keep looking from the outside (they might not do anything this egregious too often, but they’ll do other stuff). My slight worry we’d end up rejoining is falling away.
    I would have campaigned hard to rejoin. And, personally, I was beginning to look at houses in Scotland for retirement in what I thought would become an EU country.

    No more. After the disgraceful behaviour of the EU and, far worse, the manner in which they have crapped all over their own citizens there's no chance I will ever support them again. They have acted like the worst examples of an old centralist Communist dictatorship, even evoking the idea that solidarity comes before production. They have made an appalling mess of the most important job since their inception.

    We got out just in time. Now we need to face out and strike trade deals around the world.
    That's pretty much exactly how I feel. I thought Brexit was a disastrous mistake. Now I think it was the right thing to do.

    I never liked the undemocratic nature of the EU. But I'd never seen a demonstration of just how dangerous the consequences could be.

    How can anyone trust the EU Commission to comply with even the most minimal standards of behaviour after this? Disregard for the well-being of their own people, and contempt for everyone else.
    My sentiments exactly.

    And to Roger, this isn't about 'being flaky' ffs. This is people's lives we're talking about. It is the biggest crisis since the second world war, without a shadow of doubt, and the EU have flunked it. Since when they have lashed out at the British for getting on with the job of vaccinating their citizens as the EU should have done.

    I was a remainer but I will never again support the EU after this. Everything that you thought could be bad about an over-centralised bureaucracy has come to the fore. Hideous red tape that is, literally, going to kill their own people.
    As the country with the most deaths in Europe it ill behoves the UK to say 'the EU have flunked it'. What's the debate about if it isn't about saving lives which the the UK government have singularly failed to do
    Those praising British vaccine policy are well aware of our failings early on with this pandemic. The NYT piece, like Janet Street-Porter's in yesterday's Mail, acknowledge that. Some of our deaths are undoubtedly also not down to the Gov't but our freedom aspiring recalcitrance and, continued, refusal to wear masks, socially distance and follow rules. But yes we messed it up.

    However, as vaccines are the way out of this I strongly suggest you wait for the final tally rather than the one at half-time.
    I just find it mind boggling to see otherwise intelligent people answer everything with a chorus of Rule Britannia
    Little minds get boggled easily - Ode to Joy is little better. What is your view of Macron's anti-vax comments?
    Perhaps he just got bored with the English Exceptionalists and decided to follow the old proverb "Those who the gods wish to destroy they first make mad" and it seems to be working
    We seem to be ok with vaccine provision, here in the UK, but have we adequate stocks of paper bags for the PB Euro-hating hyperventilators to breath into?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You are basing this on the EU acting rationally....this week they certainly haven't.
    They have acted politically. They have not banned a single vaccine being exported to the UK, and the UK govt are confident that they won't do. For once, trust what the PM is saying!
    Smashing through the Good Friday Agreement without consulting the parties involved is just politics in your world. Okeeey! Rational is as rational does I think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Second jabs won't start being overdue until April on the 12 week schedule.
    People who got it from mid-December haven't had 2nd doses. That doesn't get you to April.
    I assumed they had. My mum had her second jab on 8 January
    Some have. The NHS were told to stop giving 2nd doses unless they could be justified on basis of extreme need. For the first week or so of the new year, some NHS regions did carry on a bit regardless, but I think they were "reminded" of the new dosing regime and the drop off was enormous after week one.

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    "The rules also back-date to three months ago, giving Brussels the ability to snoop on past vaccine shipments after Brussels accused AstraZeneca of sending doses meant for Europe to Britain."

    What's the betting they find that the UK has already had more than its fair share...by the nature we approved it faster, we will have been getting more deliveries.
    I'm not taking that bet - we know that Pfizer has reduced production in February as they are scaling up and the only stock that is available for the EU to take is Pfizer's because we were never due to receive anything else.

    Which means either EU are going to try and ignore the rules they created yesterday or its really going to blow up and all our papers will be accusing the EU of killing our pensioners.

    Which might actually be true if the second dose is required and people don't receive it.
    My guess is the UK will now have to implement a safety first strategy and stop using Pfizer for first jabs, saving whatever we have left for 2nd jabs and so it will directly affect the maximum number of jabs we can do per day.

    A move that will kill more grannys. All because the EU want a distraction from their own failings
    I think you are right - the question then becomes will the EU actually follow through on it's actions or not.

    But if the EU does block a delivery it really wouldn't surprise me if Boris

    1) Announced the issue with regret
    2) a while later extend the lockdown further due to vaccination issues

    and let the papers put 2 and 2 together as to where the blame was.
    That's incredibly costly political posturing...£10bn a week worth.
    It's not political posturing as I actually think the lockdown extension will be extended to some time in April regardless. The only changes in March is that schools might go back but at best we will be back to a November style lockdown.

    The only difference is that Boris will be able to pin the blame for those few weeks on somewhere else if we miss a pfizer delivery resulting in fewer second jabs.
    Second jabs won't start being overdue until April on the 12 week schedule.
    People who got it from mid-December haven't had 2nd doses. That doesn't get you to April.
    I assumed they had. My mum had her second jab on 8 January
    Some have. The NHS were told to stop giving 2nd doses unless they could be justified on basis of extreme need. For the first week or so of the new year, some NHS regions did carry on a bit regardless, but I think they were "reminded" of the new dosing regime and the drop off was enormous after week one.
    Some data...

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    It's worth saying though as the Daily Mail is reporting that it does seem that the EU's export ban on our next delivery of Pfizer vaccines means they will be blocked. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9204361/The-EU-cocked-big-time-Brussels-ridiculed-humiliating-U-turn.html

    Which means this story isn't dead yet.

    The UK govt is completely confident the deliveries will come through. The EU rules, drafted yesterday, say the deliveries will come through. The deliveries will come!

    That the press get mileage out of pretending they won't is hardly surprising. For once it is PM Johnson who is the grown up in the room......
    It still puts Government in a bind though. Do you have your vaccines roll-out predicated on the basis that the EU will now do the decent thing and let the Pfizer deliveries through - and keep on with the 12 weeks gap between doses? The risk is the Pfizer doesn't arrive - and you have to rejab a couple of million who have had one dose of Pfizer already with something else. Which is a couple of million folk pushed further down the chain.

    Not a doctor or a scientist, but there has been plenty of speculation that a mix of two jabs is better than two jabs of the same one anyway.

    However, the govt will press ahead with first Pfizer jabs, as Pfizer deliveries will continue to arrive. Remember we will be a big vaccine exporter, the EU are simply not going to stop 7m Pfizer jabs when we will be net exporting hundreds of millions of jabs later in the year.
    You'ld hope, wouldn't you? Not that hope would have got you far with the EU this week.
    It is not hope, it is analysis of self interest.
    I generally agree with you but as has been noted self interest alone would have prevented things escalating this far. I expect self interest to win out but it doesnt always do so.
This discussion has been closed.