Has any great institution ever destroyed its credibility so quickly, and so pointlessly, and so completely, as the EU in the last five days?
I think that after a successful Brexit and with some new youngsters at the helm, who've only ever had it easy, elements of the EU rather sat on their laurels. But as a good friend of mine always says, 'It's not ideal when you've only ever known success; sometimes it benefits to feel a bit of draught.' So after a somewhat chastening few days the EU will be back - wiser, nimbler, fitter, stronger.
I don't know if they will learn (there is a touch of the Bourbons about the EU), but they certainly could learn.
If the Parliament grew some balls and ejected the Commission - or at the very least forced the resignations of UvdL and the vaccines lady - that would probably bode well.
Crisis can be the catalyst for positive change (look at how Spain dealt with the Eurozone crisis relative to Italy). But it can also cause politicians to put their heads back in the sand.
We will see which way the EU is "turning" in the next few weeks.
Ireland's peak in case numbers was higher, but they didn't have so many deaths. Either their testing is a lot more comprehensive, or the Brazilian variant in Portugal is more deadly, or something else is going on.
There is the possibility that some health services are just better than other in keeping people alive. It could be that some countries are just a bit healthier on average and therefore do better.
Ireland's peak in case numbers was higher, but they didn't have so many deaths. Either their testing is a lot more comprehensive, or the Brazilian variant in Portugal is more deadly, or something else is going on.
I have friends in Portugal who tell me that observation of social distancing, etc, was basically non-existent until recently. Now they are scared and taking it seriously. But a bit late.
And that's why everywhere has these big natural waves, irrespective of government diktat. Portugal will be de facto locked down hard now everyone is terrified. And - in about ten days - cases will start falling like a stone.
But the EU is currently making his record look a bit better.
A bit?
Yes. A bit. We're still well ahead of the EU as a whole when it comes to per capita deaths. Doing well on the vaccines does not wholly compensate for a vast litany of wrongheadedness.
That "Fucking hell!! The fucking Brits!!! Bastards!! DO SOMETHING!!!" gap is not closing between us and the EU, is it?
Hmm. I feel like developers will hate that, and public likewarm (since generally they just don't want any houses built anyway, except in theory), but then developers complain about everything to do with planning anyway.
How many new streets are built each year? Nonsense policy to require it. developers do it anyway to try and cover up their monstrous and ugly new houses.
Not sure how you can judge a scenario to be undesirable when it never happened. Arguably the rollout might have benefitted from Boris's golden touch - then both the UK and EU would be sitting pretty. We'll never know.
Not sure why you aimed that at me - I was indulging in a bit of British exceptionalism.
One thing I've noticed from having a bit more of a window on media continent-side due to the Handelsblatt thing and the general kerfuffle, is the degree of genuine German exceptionalism that appears to abound. It reminded of me trips to Germany and a particular chat I had referencing German cars vs. Japanese cars - the German protagonist not arguing that German cars were better (understandable) but that Japanese cars were shit and it was a pity anyone got conned into buying one. I believe Germany has an unshaken view of its own superiority in matters technical that is over and above that which is supported by the facts. Now, I completely appreciate that Germany has a fantastic manufacturing and chemical industry, and that many (if not most) of their well-known brands have quality as a feature. However, what I'm talking about is more of an infallible belief that something is better merely *because* it is German. You can see it in the sneering from the German MEP about the UK taking delivery of 'very good German vaccine' etc. It seems to be the Germans that are the most bothered about the UK 'winning' the vaccine race.
As for British exceptionalism, of course it was a real thing, but I think the shit got well and truly kicked out of that post-Suez. As a matter of fact, I think most Brits believe that if something is British, it's more likely to be a huge cock up or a disappointment. I think there was a brief resurgence in faith in our 'world-beating military', lasting from The Falklands to Basra, but I think that's probably pretty well drained now too.
Yes, that's an interesting point. People do like to buy newspapers championing British successes, while not quite believing them. I think that the belief that one's own country's products and policies are best is pretty common everywhere (car-makers in particular cynically exploit it by charging more to their home markets before tax) but I agree it's very marked in Germany.
Not sure how you can judge a scenario to be undesirable when it never happened. Arguably the rollout might have benefitted from Boris's golden touch - then both the UK and EU would be sitting pretty. We'll never know.
Not sure why you aimed that at me - I was indulging in a bit of British exceptionalism.
One thing I've noticed from having a bit more of a window on media continent-side due to the Handelsblatt thing and the general kerfuffle, is the degree of genuine German exceptionalism that appears to abound. It reminded of me trips to Germany and a particular chat I had referencing German cars vs. Japanese cars - the German protagonist not arguing that German cars were better (understandable) but that Japanese cars were shit and it was a pity anyone got conned into buying one. I believe Germany has an unshaken view of its own superiority in matters technical that is over and above that which is supported by the facts. Now, I completely appreciate that Germany has a fantastic manufacturing and chemical industry, and that many (if not most) of their well-known brands have quality as a feature. However, what I'm talking about is more of an infallible belief that something is better merely *because* it is German. You can see it in the sneering from the German MEP about the UK taking delivery of 'very good German vaccine' etc. It seems to be the Germans that are the most bothered about the UK 'winning' the vaccine race.
As for British exceptionalism, of course it was a real thing, but I think the shit got well and truly kicked out of that post-Suez. As a matter of fact, I think most Brits believe that if something is British, it's more likely to be a huge cock up or a disappointment. I think there was a brief resurgence in faith in our 'world-beating military', lasting from The Falklands to Basra, but I think that's probably pretty well drained now too.
Yes, that's an interesting point. People do like to buy newspapers championing British successes, while not quite believing them. I think that the belief that one's own country's products and policies are best is pretty common everywhere (car-makers in particular cynically exploit it by charging more to their home markets before tax) but I agree it's very marked in Germany.
Nick. I'm sure you're quite pleased if you can wave the flag. Sometimes we can.
Hmm. I feel like developers will hate that, and public likewarm (since generally they just don't want any houses built anyway, except in theory), but then developers complain about everything to do with planning anyway.
How many new streets are built each year? Nonsense policy to require it. developers do it anyway to try and cover up their monstrous and ugly new houses.
Has any great institution ever destroyed its credibility so quickly, and so pointlessly, and so completely, as the EU in the last five days?
I think that after a successful Brexit and with some new youngsters at the helm, who've only ever had it easy, elements of the EU rather sat on their laurels. But as a good friend of mine always says, 'It's not ideal when you've only ever known success; sometimes it benefits to feel a bit of draught.' So after a somewhat chastening few days the EU will be back - wiser, nimbler, fitter, stronger.
I don't know if they will learn (there is a touch of the Bourbons about the EU), but they certainly could learn.
If the Parliament grew some balls and ejected the Commission - or at the very least forced the resignations of UvdL and the vaccines lady - that would probably bode well.
Crisis can be the catalyst for positive change (look at how Spain dealt with the Eurozone crisis relative to Italy). But it can also cause politicians to put their heads back in the sand.
We will see which way the EU is "turning" in the next few weeks.
Their standard approach in a crisis is acknowledge problems, promise to do better, then do little.
But the EU is currently making his record look a bit better.
A bit?
Yes. A bit. We're still well ahead of the EU as a whole when it comes to per capita deaths. Doing well on the vaccines does not wholly compensate for a vast litany of wrongheadedness.
That "Fucking hell!! The fucking Brits!!! Bastards!! DO SOMETHING!!!" gap is not closing between us and the EU, is it?
Anecdote - Friends of the Earth wrote to every district council in the country urging them to increase their tree cover by a huge percentage. However, Waverley has such a high tree cover already that this would have brought us towards 100%, with no space for human activities at all. I pointed that out to FoE, who said er, well, OK, a bit less for you, then...
Mr Herdson, is it worth considering that the EU apparatus will lean towards overtly (openly?) the candidate that suits the EU best. It will not like Me Pen! In short the EU will not be neutral in the French election or any other for that matter.
How this affects public opinion is possibly a moot point of course.
"The validity of lockdown debated at the Cambridge Union
Cambridge students voted by 362 votes to 309 to approve the motion, “this House believes lockdown was a mistake” yesterday (Thursday, January 28).
In the online Cambridge Union debate, which questioned the government's strategy for tackling the pandemic, those supporting the motion were Conservative MP Sir Graham Brady, chairman of Reform UK, Richard Tice, and social commentator, journalist and author, Toby Young.
Opposing it were writer, novelist and journalist Laura Spinney, novelist and physician Phil Whitaker and Liberal Democrat MP, Layla Moran."
Around 130,000 people who are clinically extremely vulnerable to the coronavirus are being asked to keep shielding in Wales until the end of March.
Oh dear. I can see this being a prelude to forcing them to stay at home all the way until May. Twelve weeks after February 15th, to allow for the second jabs to be administered, takes us up to May 10th, by which point we can have a reasonable expectation that everyone over 50 will also have had the first shot.
I don't think people necessarily appreciate, unless they are shielding or know someone else in that position well, how difficult it is. You're instructed to go into that form of extreme isolation for a very long period, and not even excused if you're in work, because the Government has now instructed the extremely vulnerable not to go in. It's almost a form of imprisonment really.
I dunno, I'm not especially vulnerable but I've no intention of meeting people before several weeks after the second vaccination. Yeah, it's a sort of house arrest with brief outings for fresh air, but I like being in my flat and definitely prefer it to being dead. That's a common view among the 70+s and the super-vulnerable who I know. By definition we tend to be a sedate bunch!
Anecdote - Friends of the Earth wrote to every district council in the country urging them to increase their tree cover by a huge percentage. However, Waverley has such a high tree cover already that this would have brought us towards 100%, with no space for human activities at all. I pointed that out to FoE, who said er, well, OK, a bit less for you, then...
Well what is more important, the planet or the human residents of Waverley?
But the EU is currently making his record look a bit better.
A bit?
Yes. A bit. We're still well ahead of the EU as a whole when it comes to per capita deaths. Doing well on the vaccines does not wholly compensate for a vast litany of wrongheadedness.
That "Fucking hell!! The fucking Brits!!! Bastards!! DO SOMETHING!!!" gap is not closing between us and the EU, is it?
Strong case for more vaccines to be diverted to Portugal.
Indeed. Puts a question mark over the entire idea of 'solidarity' as espoused and practiced by the EU. We must all have the same number of firefighters per capita, regardless of where the fires are.
I haven't seen any US-wide party polling since Trump's assault on the capitol?
Nor have I - but Biden is certainly on a roll - 59-32 in the latest non-Rasmussen poll (even Rasmussen gives him +5). The Georgia figures certainly look unpromising for the GOP more generally as it's now the archetypal swing state.
To us lawyers, of course, the most absurd aspect has been the claim from Ms Sturgeon and her deputy John Swinney that it is impossible for them to afford the Committee sight of the legal advice given to the Scottish government in respect of the Salmond matters. It is confidential and so can’t be divulged, they protest. What utter nonsense. They, the Scottish government, are the client and can waive the privilege attached to the legal advice whenever they chose. In advancing such an absurd explanation for secrecy they must take the view that the Scottish public are exceptionally dense and will believe this.
To us lawyers, of course, the most absurd aspect has been the claim from Ms Sturgeon and her deputy John Swinney that it is impossible for them to afford the Committee sight of the legal advice given to the Scottish government in respect of the Salmond matters. It is confidential and so can’t be divulged, they protest. What utter nonsense. They, the Scottish government, are the client and can waive the privilege attached to the legal advice whenever they chose. In advancing such an absurd explanation for secrecy they must take the view that the Scottish public are exceptionally dense and will believe this.
To us lawyers, of course, the most absurd aspect has been the claim from Ms Sturgeon and her deputy John Swinney that it is impossible for them to afford the Committee sight of the legal advice given to the Scottish government in respect of the Salmond matters. It is confidential and so can’t be divulged, they protest. What utter nonsense. They, the Scottish government, are the client and can waive the privilege attached to the legal advice whenever they chose. In advancing such an absurd explanation for secrecy they must take the view that the Scottish public are exceptionally dense and will believe this.
Trees are very nice of course, but if we're really worried about beauty, can't we pledge to build beautiful buildings as well, instead of the hideous identikit brutalist shitheaps that we currently put up?
Trees are very nice of course, but if we're really worried about beauty, can't we pledge to build beautiful buildings as well, instead of the hideous identikit brutalist shitheaps that we currently put up?
Well the government have been pressing on ideas of how to do that, but it's probably far less achievable.
Around 130,000 people who are clinically extremely vulnerable to the coronavirus are being asked to keep shielding in Wales until the end of March.
Oh dear. I can see this being a prelude to forcing them to stay at home all the way until May. Twelve weeks after February 15th, to allow for the second jabs to be administered, takes us up to May 10th, by which point we can have a reasonable expectation that everyone over 50 will also have had the first shot.
I don't think people necessarily appreciate, unless they are shielding or know someone else in that position well, how difficult it is. You're instructed to go into that form of extreme isolation for a very long period, and not even excused if you're in work, because the Government has now instructed the extremely vulnerable not to go in. It's almost a form of imprisonment really.
I dunno, I'm not especially vulnerable but I've no intention of meeting people before several weeks after the second vaccination. Yeah, it's a sort of house arrest with brief outings for fresh air, but I like being in my flat and definitely prefer it to being dead. That's a common view among the 70+s and the super-vulnerable who I know. By definition we tend to be a sedate bunch!
Yes, well, it depends upon one's circumstances. If one has arrived at the Zimmer frame stage of life then I suppose that sitting and staring at the telly or out the window all day doesn't represent a radical form of change. For an otherwise reasonably fit and active fortysomething it's a different kettle of fish.
Has any great institution ever destroyed its credibility so quickly, and so pointlessly, and so completely, as the EU in the last five days?
I think that after a successful Brexit and with some new youngsters at the helm, who've only ever had it easy, elements of the EU rather sat on their laurels. But as a good friend of mine always says, 'It's not ideal when you've only ever known success; sometimes it benefits to feel a bit of draught.' So after a somewhat chastening few days the EU will be back - wiser, nimbler, fitter, stronger.
I don't know if they will learn (there is a touch of the Bourbons about the EU), but they certainly could learn.
If the Parliament grew some balls and ejected the Commission - or at the very least forced the resignations of UvdL and the vaccines lady - that would probably bode well.
Crisis can be the catalyst for positive change (look at how Spain dealt with the Eurozone crisis relative to Italy). But it can also cause politicians to put their heads back in the sand.
We will see which way the EU is "turning" in the next few weeks.
The decline in cases is fantastic. We should be below the level it was at the end of the December lockdown within a week or so if the rate continues. I can't believe how steep the slope on the graph is.
Yes once again the rate of decrease is accelerating. It really feels like a vaccine related success, there's no other way to explain fewer cases despite lockdown conditions remaining stable.
Hang on. No schools is a massive driver.
Don't forget that Israel's case load is falling much more slowly than us,
Yes but that's been constant during this lockdown, it's not as if they've suddenly closed them to help bring the R down further.
There's no other explanation for the case contraction rate going from ~20% and holding steady two weeks ago to ~30% today. That acceleration must have come from somewhere and the only new thing we've added to the mix is the vaccination programme which has reached 2.3m people partially or fully immunised, with the latter group weighted to medical staff who have always been likely superspreaders.
That's good to know.
Still hope they aren't in too much of a hurry with the schools though.
The schools are a major problem, if the graphs from NI are any indication the clincher on that was the extended mid term break where things flattened out briefly then as soon as the kids went back up it went. The counter to this is that my understanding is that amount of kids who are still physically going into school buildings is much higher than back April/May last year.
Ideally they'd wait until after the early Easter and hope that come April the impact of people coming out of winter hibernation opening the windows and so on, which they suggest does keep infection rates down, can help things a bit. Given a choice though between crushing large parts of the economy to have schools back it'd be no contest if it was me, get the economy more open.
We have a few more in than last summer, but we still have so few that if they wanted each could be in their own classroom.
Absolutely correct what others are saying on here re schools. We appear to be making real progress now in reducing cases. Schools being closed is a real part of that. If they open too early it could take us backwards.
Let's wait until after Easter when hopefully the top 9 groups will have been vaccinated and in most part will have some immunity.
At a broad estimate, if we keep doing as well as we are now then we should be able to get phase one done by Easter, which would mean the last of those people would've reached their three weeks post-jab marker by about the end of that month.
It would probably be a good idea to leave the schools until that point, although frankly I'd rather they only let the primaries go back and wrote the secondaries off until September.
That is, hopefully the accumulation of the partially completed vaccination program and warmer weather will mean pretty effective suppression all over the Summer, but imagine the Government had to contemplate another bloody lockdown? People would give up in despair.
(Question: has Moderna been approved in the UK?)
Yes but originally very little bought and delivery not until April I think.
Novovax has been working with MHRA on its submission since mid Jan,so I'd expect approval before J&J. Not sure about its delivery date though. I've heard March but that seems very slack.
Not sure how you can judge a scenario to be undesirable when it never happened. Arguably the rollout might have benefitted from Boris's golden touch - then both the UK and EU would be sitting pretty. We'll never know.
Not sure why you aimed that at me - I was indulging in a bit of British exceptionalism.
One thing I've noticed from having a bit more of a window on media continent-side due to the Handelsblatt thing and the general kerfuffle, is the degree of genuine German exceptionalism that appears to abound. It reminded of me trips to Germany and a particular chat I had referencing German cars vs. Japanese cars - the German protagonist not arguing that German cars were better (understandable) but that Japanese cars were shit and it was a pity anyone got conned into buying one. I believe Germany has an unshaken view of its own superiority in matters technical that is over and above that which is supported by the facts. Now, I completely appreciate that Germany has a fantastic manufacturing and chemical industry, and that many (if not most) of their well-known brands have quality as a feature. However, what I'm talking about is more of an infallible belief that something is better merely *because* it is German. You can see it in the sneering from the German MEP about the UK taking delivery of 'very good German vaccine' etc. It seems to be the Germans that are the most bothered about the UK 'winning' the vaccine race.
As for British exceptionalism, of course it was a real thing, but I think the shit got well and truly kicked out of that post-Suez. As a matter of fact, I think most Brits believe that if something is British, it's more likely to be a huge cock up or a disappointment. I think there was a brief resurgence in faith in our 'world-beating military', lasting from The Falklands to Basra, but I think that's probably pretty well drained now too.
If you care to look at Basra, you will find it was our world debilitating Labour government who hamstrung our army and told it to keep out. Our world class special forces were magnificent in Baghdad.... Task Force Black, read about it by Mark Urban.
To us lawyers, of course, the most absurd aspect has been the claim from Ms Sturgeon and her deputy John Swinney that it is impossible for them to afford the Committee sight of the legal advice given to the Scottish government in respect of the Salmond matters. It is confidential and so can’t be divulged, they protest. What utter nonsense. They, the Scottish government, are the client and can waive the privilege attached to the legal advice whenever they chose. In advancing such an absurd explanation for secrecy they must take the view that the Scottish public are exceptionally dense and will believe this.
The EU's top negotiator on vaccine contracts, Sandra Gallina, has defended the EU's collective approach on vaccines, arguing that doses collectively purchased will "come first", ahead of those secured under bilateral deals.
During a hearing in the European Parliament's environment and public health committee, Gallina said she was "confused" by recent reports of bilateral deals because the EU's overall strategy forbids member states from negotiating individually.
"I have not seen yet one [bilateral deal], I do not think I will ever. They do not exist based on what I have been told, [but in any case], the quantities [purchased] for Europe come first," Gallina told MEPs on Tuesday (12 January).
"This has been a united effort that has gotten us the doses that as a single country, big as the country can be, would have never received," Gallina warned.
Meanwhile, the commission expects to see faster deliveries of vaccines from April, as already agreed in the existing contracts.
The second quarter "is going to be the quarter with many doses".
That's a full 2 months away!
2 month's is bad, but there are some surprising countries set to do far worse according to this map. From The Economist, so maybe not foolproof...
Also, why on earth is Norway lagging behind the rest of Europe? They are a small population in one of the richest countries in the world. They have had a very successful control and contain campaign to date with very low infection and death rates, why would they not be one of those at the forefront of getting everyone vaccinated?
That's one of the ones that looks wrong (it is the Economist, after all!)
I don't know what crude and arbitrary formula they've deployed, but it looks wrong.
I very much doubt that any of Norway, Canada, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand will take until the middle of next year to get done. Japan and South Africa might make it this year as well. Greenland is a Danish dependency with a very small population so shouldn't have to wait too long. And if you squint at the map you'll notice that Serbia is down for the back end of 2022, when they're currently the seventh best performing country in the world by rate. But hey-ho.
I think there are a couple of things to note here:
(1) As we're seeing in the UK and Israel (and maybe the US), vaccination programmes can start to really impact CV19 rates while relatively small proportions of the population has been vaccinated. R may be 3 for CV19 when no-one has had Covid and no-one is vaccinated; it'll be a much smaller number when a third of the population is vaccinated and another 10-20% have had Covid.
(2) Vaccine production capacity is only growing. I believe the Serum Institute of India is planning to produce two billion doses (between AZN and Novavax) this year. Novartis and Sanofi will both manufacture Pfizer's vaccine under license. And Bayer has also signed up to manufacture CureVac's vaccine. Then we have J&J, Moderna and others. It's hard not to imagine that the world will be pumping out at least a billion doses of vaccines every quarter from the second quarter of this year, and many place will have far more doses than they have people.
Now, I don't know the structure of the UK contracts for vaccines. If the UK doesn't end up taking all its J&J order because (say) Pfizer and Novavax and AZN have managed to get 100 million doses to us, do we have the option to decline it? (Are contacts set up as a big upfront payment and then a small per dose one?)
There's also the question of which vaccines you'd want to send where. J&J or AZN are probably fantastic for Africa because of their easy storage requirements. Sending Pfizer vaccines to Uganda, by contrast, might result in very high wastage due to lack of appropriate refigeration.
I would suggest that if we don't need the vaccine then we pay for it and send it to Africa if suitable or to our neighbours if it needs the more technically challenging storage facilities. As many on here have already said start with Africa and Ireland and then move out from there.
Comments
If the Parliament grew some balls and ejected the Commission - or at the very least forced the resignations of UvdL and the vaccines lady - that would probably bode well.
Crisis can be the catalyst for positive change (look at how Spain dealt with the Eurozone crisis relative to Italy). But it can also cause politicians to put their heads back in the sand.
We will see which way the EU is "turning" in the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/JuliaBradbury/status/1354785894369292294
They've not gotten to acknowledge yet.
In short the EU will not be neutral in the French election or any other for that matter.
How this affects public opinion is possibly a moot point of course.
Cambridge students voted by 362 votes to 309 to approve the motion, “this House believes lockdown was a mistake” yesterday (Thursday, January 28).
In the online Cambridge Union debate, which questioned the government's strategy for tackling the pandemic, those supporting the motion were Conservative MP Sir Graham Brady, chairman of Reform UK, Richard Tice, and social commentator, journalist and author, Toby Young.
Opposing it were writer, novelist and journalist Laura Spinney, novelist and physician Phil Whitaker and Liberal Democrat MP, Layla Moran."
https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/the-validity-of-lockdown-debated-at-the-cambridge-union-9154823/
Selfish.
Cllr Nick Palmer - Enemy of the Earth.
https://www.scottishlegal.com/article/alistair-bonnington-salmond-inquiry-reflects-poorly-on-scotland-s-democratic-traditions
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