What some of those replies show is that there is real anxiety amongst the 80+ group about being told to wait 12 weeks instead of the agreed three for the second jab.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Interesting to know the age demographic of your gardeners. Diana's death was 25 years ago. Or are they discussing it as an historical event?
Owner is about 40-45. His men are late 20s/early 30s. One kind of smiles, rolls with it, nods or ignores him - gets on with the work. The other humours him and seems to enjoy the chat, and occasionally sets him off on a new topic.
He's on climate change now, and the bullshit that ditching a plastic bag or two here or there will save the world.
I might hire these guys again - just for the bantz.
Far be it for me to defend this government, that is led by the most incompetent buffoon ever to have held high office, but I think Nadim Zahawi is one of the few ministers who seems to know what he is doing. So far the roll out looks pretty impressive. It is a herculean task
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
In addition to the other correct comments about the scenario - cases should also fall if (a) current restrictions work and (b) if the virus behaves broadly the same as last time around, with warmer, drier weather having some effect.
I would have thought you would start to see some effect by now and that graph suggests my back of the envelope maths was not wrong. I'm just not sure if we are yet.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
First off, between you and @Malmesbury you are putting PB at the forefront of enquiry and analysis of this thing so thanks.
Secondly, people will have to get their heads around the following:
1) vaccinated 80-yr old with Covid but no symptoms; and 2) unvaccinated 20-yr old with Covid but no symptoms.
Both for all intents and purposes and, crucially, an end to restrictions, pose the same risk to the population in isolation. But the 20-yr old is likely to meet plenty more people than the 80-yr old (but perhaps not more than a 40-yr old taking the Central/Northern Line twice a day).
It is from this that the govt must create a sensible way forward.
No worries, I agree with that premise too. Which is why I think by June the pressure will tell. All over 18s will have had their first jab by then, at least half will have had the second one too. So that's full immunity from symptoms for all over 50s and partial immunity from symptoms for all under 50s, with the latter group still in the process of gaining full immunity.
We will have been in this bullshit for well over a year by then and the pressure will be massive because the daily numbers will be single figure deaths and double figure cases with a very low impact to hospitals.
The government has talked about defeating the virus a lot. If we keep these awful life restrictions after that has happened in a practical sense (almost no one dying it ending up in hospital) then people will start asking to what end are we still making these lifestyle sacrifices which is a vote loser.
Absolutely agree and as, I think, you noted earlier "Cons MPs will put pressure on the govt".
It is a strange situation when we are relying on the likes of eg Steve Baker to deliver us from this when it is sensible to do so.
Although by popular agreement, we simply can't afford to keep the restrictions longer than a minute more than they are necessary.
And this is where I have time for @contrarian. Because whatever the merits of his particular posts to date, without voices such as his, articulated in the HoC by Baker, the temptation would be to "follow the science" and as we have seen today, plenty of "scientists" advocate almost an until further notice restrictive regime.
An awful lot of non-Tory supporting businesspeople that I know are currently damning of Starmer for failing to actually oppose the Govt on lockdown. Never heard so much admiration for the hawks in the Tory party. Thank god they are there.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Maybe it's just me - but it feels inevitable Boris is going to lift restrictions too early. He's consistently made that mistake, and now we've got the "But the vaccination rollout is going really well" factor to deal with.
There are tentative signs that he's finally learned the lesson.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Wales for us, I think ....... unless I can find a river cruise for my wife's 80th.......then a 'long trip' around Christmas
Staying in one country is probably a good idea - the Volga? They are getting vaxxed up.
Good thought. Thanks. Another is the Douro. Both the Rhine and the Danube go through too many countries; one forgets all the complications we've now got back to!
I wasn't going to do it by boat, but Nizhny, Kazan and Yaroslavl were on my itinerary for my abandoned grand tour of Russia last year. Unfortunately I don't think we'll be able to travel before it starts to get a bit chilly in Russia - so the Douro may indeed be the better option this year.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
This is presumably only based on the published vaccination plan - i.e. the priority groups, hence the flat lines at the end of the graph (due to no additional vaccinations). There will of course be further vaccinations, so the lines will continue to drop.
Indeed but see my reply. 15m is nearly 25% of the adult population and the number of cases falls by 15%? If correct that suggests that herd immunity is working a lot less efficiently than I had hoped. I expected that the more "dead ends" there were in society for the virus the lower the R number would fall. There must surely be some critical mass point at which the effect becomes much greater if this is correct.
15% is not far off the (they say) assumed 70% efficacy multiplied by 25%. I don't know whether these estimates take any account of (at present not proven, but likely) reduced likelihood of encountering someone infectious, so may just assume same risk of exposure but reduced risk of infection. Including such effects would be hard as you'd need to first make an estimate of such effect and then also estimate how the important it is for social contacts - most unvaccinated people will be mostly mixing with other unvaccinated people, so little effect until many are vaccinated.
In short, it's probably reasonable estimate for when the 15m or so are vaccinated, but should get accelerating effect on infections as more people beyond 15m are vaccinated.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give or take two or three I'm with your hedge chopper. Talking about choppers don't you spell 'nob' with a 'k'?
I think the most interesting thing for me (and I'm going to put my headphones on it a minute so I can do some work; he's very loud) is how complicated and mixed "ordinary" people's views can be.
He's on Trump now and has said he disappointed the White Supremacists and militias because he wasn't supremacist enough; his "wall" was simply continuing what Obama and Biden were doing on the Mexican border in the previous administration - people attack him because he's a c*nt but forget his policies are popular.
This guy should go on Question Time.
I can exactly name the day that my faith in nuanced political argument disappeared. The day before the 2016 Brexit referendum, sat behind two girls on a bus, I heard one say to the other 'How are you voting in this referendum tomorrow then?'. The reply blew my mind:
'I am voting Remain so that we can give 350m a week to the NHS'
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.
Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
Maybe Zahawi is doing a good job, and the vaccines being shifted from north to south is down to an order from Number 10?
Have to say, it'd be interesting if London got ahead on jab numbers. Just to see if they shifted vaccines north. I'm not overwhelmingly convinced that would occur.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
Christ one of my friends has died from Covid, was either in his 30s or early 40s.
I'm sorry to hear that. My condolences.
More someone I know in passing, not a massively close friend - but a very genuinely nice chap. Have sent my condolences to his wife.
My condolences.
It brings it home, doesn't it. Sympathies.
Mine too. My brother in law's colleague's partner died at 36 from Covid. He had an underlying condition, but was not (so I'm told, I did not know him) someone you would have considered unwell. Brings it home, when we're all mostly concerned about our parents/grandparents that they are not the only ones at risk.
There will be a point, once the clocks go back and weather gets warmer, where I wish the authorities good luck in trying to stop people from meeting up outdoors.
Mass non-compliance will develop. Easter weekend may have the right mix of warm weather and length of time under restrictions. It's 10 weeks away.
13 weeks after the first lockdown started, we'd already had the VE day celebrations, where compliance started to fray a bit, and then a good two weeks of on and off BLM and related protests.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Wales for us, I think ....... unless I can find a river cruise for my wife's 80th.......then a 'long trip' around Christmas
Staying in one country is probably a good idea - the Volga? They are getting vaxxed up.
Good thought. Thanks. Another is the Douro. Both the Rhine and the Danube go through too many countries; one forgets all the complications we've now got back to!
I wasn't going to do it by boat, but Nizhny, Kazan and Yaroslavl were on my itinerary for my abandoned grand tour of Russia last year. Unfortunately I don't think we'll be able to travel before it starts to get a bit chilly in Russia - so the Douro may indeed be the better option this year.
Wife's birthday is July, so while I hope for the Douro, I fear it may be the Thames!
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
We'll soon find out for sure from Israel. They're doing us all a massive favour.
Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
The overall case numbers don't tell you much, because as you say they're affected by restrictions as well as the virus. Vaccinated vs unvaccinated case numbers are more interesting, although even there changes in behaviour after being vaccinated can affect the numbers.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
Far be it for me to defend this government, that is led by the most incompetent buffoon ever to have held high office, but I think Nadim Zahawi is one of the few ministers who seems to know what he is doing. So far the roll out looks pretty impressive. It is a herculean task
I think that both the minister and the editor are right, in this case
As far as I can tell, the build out of the vaccine delivery supply chain has meant that capacity to deliver the vaccine exceeds supply. This is quite probably deliberate. Over supply capacity makes operations smoother in any system. In addition when supplies pick up, they will be used immediately.
What also appears to have happened is that the build out was not even across all areas. The variation in GPs joining the program - some declined to take part. All pretty normal in setting up a nationwide delivery system.
So some areas achieved excess capacity and zoomed ahead, first. Now more facilities have come online in other areas.
There is not enough vaccine to fill all the supply chains to all the areas, at the moment. So a rationing decision has to be made.
So, from the point of people in Yorkshire - they are being penalised for early success.
For the point of view of responsibility for the country as a whole - need to move vaccination towards new capacity that has ben created. Otherwise new capacity won't translate in to jabs.
Just updating my vaccine forecast, new central estimate is that we will have 7m people having had two doses by Easter Sunday and a further 35-38m with one dose by the same point in time. Everyone will have had at least one jab by the end of May and both by the middle of August.
There is also the not inconsequential immunity-via-infection cohort to consider. Will be several millions. We should be looking to drop back to Tier 2 down here by Easter, I think.
As an aside, spoke to my son’s teacher yesterday. She has staged a full recovery, and is hale and hearty. Similarly his best mate’s mum. Both were fluey for a fortnight - not nice - but have bounced right back.
If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
You need to talk to more people outside of your bubble, rather than project your prejudices onto them.
My daughter, a younger Remainer female, is naturally delighted that a woman is [finally] in one of the top two Executive posts in the US, but there are a whole heap of things that she regards as more important and that she is impatient to see change happen.
She doesn't want those other changes - on the climate, economy, etc - to take as long.
People like to say that the good thing about pb.com is that there is a wider than normal political mix, but instead of listening to opposing views there's a really annoying habit of telling people what their views are - and naturally those views are always worthy of being derided.
Of course, you will always think better of your views than others - else your views would be different - but a bit more willingness to listen and show respect wouldn't go amiss.
What some of those replies show is that there is real anxiety amongst the 80+ group about being told to wait 12 weeks instead of the agreed three for the second jab.
My mid 70s and frail parents are both getting the first does of Pfizer on Saturday. Dad insists they'll get the 2nd one in 3 weeks and that the "nightmare" will be over. Tried to get him to step back from that level of hope as if/when they delay the 2nd one it will crush him.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
First off, between you and @Malmesbury you are putting PB at the forefront of enquiry and analysis of this thing so thanks.
Secondly, people will have to get their heads around the following:
1) vaccinated 80-yr old with Covid but no symptoms; and 2) unvaccinated 20-yr old with Covid but no symptoms.
Both for all intents and purposes and, crucially, an end to restrictions, pose the same risk to the population in isolation. But the 20-yr old is likely to meet plenty more people than the 80-yr old (but perhaps not more than a 40-yr old taking the Central/Northern Line twice a day).
It is from this that the govt must create a sensible way forward.
No worries, I agree with that premise too. Which is why I think by June the pressure will tell. All over 18s will have had their first jab by then, at least half will have had the second one too. So that's full immunity from symptoms for all over 50s and partial immunity from symptoms for all under 50s, with the latter group still in the process of gaining full immunity.
We will have been in this bullshit for well over a year by then and the pressure will be massive because the daily numbers will be single figure deaths and double figure cases with a very low impact to hospitals.
The government has talked about defeating the virus a lot. If we keep these awful life restrictions after that has happened in a practical sense (almost no one dying it ending up in hospital) then people will start asking to what end are we still making these lifestyle sacrifices which is a vote loser.
Absolutely agree and as, I think, you noted earlier "Cons MPs will put pressure on the govt".
It is a strange situation when we are relying on the likes of eg Steve Baker to deliver us from this when it is sensible to do so.
Although by popular agreement, we simply can't afford to keep the restrictions longer than a minute more than they are necessary.
And this is where I have time for @contrarian. Because whatever the merits of his particular posts to date, without voices such as his, articulated in the HoC by Baker, the temptation would be to "follow the science" and as we have seen today, plenty of "scientists" advocate almost an until further notice restrictive regime.
An awful lot of non-Tory supporting businesspeople that I know are currently damning of Starmer for failing to actually oppose the Govt on lockdown. Never heard so much admiration for the hawks in the Tory party. Thank god they are there.
Yes, I’m happy they are there, and have said so on here. They are a bit previous with their demands but I’d much rather have that pressure on government than not.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give or take two or three I'm with your hedge chopper. Talking about choppers don't you spell 'nob' with a 'k'?
I think the most interesting thing for me (and I'm going to put my headphones on it a minute so I can do some work; he's very loud) is how complicated and mixed "ordinary" people's views can be.
He's on Trump now and has said he disappointed the White Supremacists and militias because he wasn't supremacist enough; his "wall" was simply continuing what Obama and Biden were doing on the Mexican border in the previous administration - people attack him because he's a c*nt but forget his policies are popular.
This guy should go on Question Time.
I can exactly name the day that my faith in nuanced political argument disappeared. The day before the 2016 Brexit referendum, sat behind two girls on a bus, I heard one say to the other 'How are you voting in this referendum tomorrow then?'. The reply blew my mind:
'I am voting Remain so that we can give 350m a week to the NHS'
From general keeping up with friends etc - nearly no one has any idea of the rate at which this country is vaccinating. Most people assume it is next year before they will get a job.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Interesting to know the age demographic of your gardeners. Diana's death was 25 years ago. Or are they discussing it as an historical event?
Owner is about 40-45. His men are late 20s/early 30s. One kind of smiles, rolls with it, nods or ignores him - gets on with the work. The other humours him and seems to enjoy the chat, and occasionally sets him off on a new topic.
He's on climate change now, and the bullshit that ditching a plastic bag or two here or there will save the world.
I might hire these guys again - just for the bantz.
Ha, sounds like fun! Always good to occasionally interact with people of wildly differing opinions
What some of those replies show is that there is real anxiety amongst the 80+ group about being told to wait 12 weeks instead of the agreed three for the second jab.
My mid 70s and frail parents are both getting the first does of Pfizer on Saturday. Dad insists they'll get the 2nd one in 3 weeks and that the "nightmare" will be over. Tried to get him to step back from that level of hope as if/when they delay the 2nd one it will crush him.
Are they aware that the vaccination just reduces their personal risk?
What some of those replies show is that there is real anxiety amongst the 80+ group about being told to wait 12 weeks instead of the agreed three for the second jab.
My mid 70s and frail parents are both getting the first does of Pfizer on Saturday. Dad insists they'll get the 2nd one in 3 weeks and that the "nightmare" will be over. Tried to get him to step back from that level of hope as if/when they delay the 2nd one it will crush him.
If a three week strategy was being used they wouldn't be getting the first dose for a few weeks.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give it an hour, and then the two of you could swap roles?
If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
You need to talk to more people outside of your bubble, rather than project your prejudices onto them.
My daughter, a younger Remainer female, is naturally delighted that a woman is [finally] in one of the top two Executive posts in the US, but there are a whole heap of things that she regards as more important and that she is impatient to see change happen.
She doesn't want those other changes - on the climate, economy, etc - to take as long.
People like to say that the good thing about pb.com is that there is a wider than normal political mix, but instead of listening to opposing views there's a really annoying habit of telling people what their views are - and naturally those views are always worthy of being derided.
Of course, you will always think better of your views than others - else your views would be different - but a bit more willingness to listen and show respect wouldn't go amiss.
My daughters are extremely unimpressed with K. Harris.
This is because they follow American politics on Twitter/Tik Tok obsessively, fully signed up to BLM etc. So they know all about her record as a DA.
Like pretty much anyone under 18, they hate Brexit, because Brexit.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give it an hour, and then the two of you could swap roles?
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give or take two or three I'm with your hedge chopper. Talking about choppers don't you spell 'nob' with a 'k'?
I think the most interesting thing for me (and I'm going to put my headphones on it a minute so I can do some work; he's very loud) is how complicated and mixed "ordinary" people's views can be.
He's on Trump now and has said he disappointed the White Supremacists and militias because he wasn't supremacist enough; his "wall" was simply continuing what Obama and Biden were doing on the Mexican border in the previous administration - people attack him because he's a c*nt but forget his policies are popular.
This guy should go on Question Time.
The Wall that Obama built was mandated and funded by a law passed under the Bush Presidency.
If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
You need to talk to more people outside of your bubble, rather than project your prejudices onto them.
My daughter, a younger Remainer female, is naturally delighted that a woman is [finally] in one of the top two Executive posts in the US, but there are a whole heap of things that she regards as more important and that she is impatient to see change happen.
She doesn't want those other changes - on the climate, economy, etc - to take as long.
People like to say that the good thing about pb.com is that there is a wider than normal political mix, but instead of listening to opposing views there's a really annoying habit of telling people what their views are - and naturally those views are always worthy of being derided.
Of course, you will always think better of your views than others - else your views would be different - but a bit more willingness to listen and show respect wouldn't go amiss.
This is because they follow American politics on Twitter/Tik Tok obsessively, fully signed up to BLM etc. So they know all about her record as a DA.
On the date front did you know that yesterday we all lived on the 21st second of the 21st minute of the 21st hour of the 21st day of the 21st year of the 21st century.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
Remember that this is for a single dose to 15 million people only: Over 70s, Clinically Extremely Vulnerable people, and NHS workers and care home workers.
As pointed out by others, as we continue the rollout to the 65+, the underlying health conditions group, the 60+, the 55+, and so on, that'll keep curving down steeper and steeper.
Also bear in mind that when we get to 4 million jabs a week - well, the number of people in each 5-year age group is around 4 million.
("Age 60-65 this week. Age 55-60 next week. Age 50-55 the week after. Age 45-50 the week after that...") (Obviously the second jabs will have an effect, but that's illustrative)
If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
You need to talk to more people outside of your bubble, rather than project your prejudices onto them.
My daughter, a younger Remainer female, is naturally delighted that a woman is [finally] in one of the top two Executive posts in the US, but there are a whole heap of things that she regards as more important and that she is impatient to see change happen.
She doesn't want those other changes - on the climate, economy, etc - to take as long.
People like to say that the good thing about pb.com is that there is a wider than normal political mix, but instead of listening to opposing views there's a really annoying habit of telling people what their views are - and naturally those views are always worthy of being derided.
Of course, you will always think better of your views than others - else your views would be different - but a bit more willingness to listen and show respect wouldn't go amiss.
Sigh. I'm summarising what I think the opinion poll is saying for a modal person. This is a betting site and such inferences are important.
What some of those replies show is that there is real anxiety amongst the 80+ group about being told to wait 12 weeks instead of the agreed three for the second jab.
My mid 70s and frail parents are both getting the first does of Pfizer on Saturday. Dad insists they'll get the 2nd one in 3 weeks and that the "nightmare" will be over. Tried to get him to step back from that level of hope as if/when they delay the 2nd one it will crush him.
Tell them at it still takes 21 days to be fully effective... and from what I read that means that they get 90% protection.
If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
You need to talk to more people outside of your bubble, rather than project your prejudices onto them.
My daughter, a younger Remainer female, is naturally delighted that a woman is [finally] in one of the top two Executive posts in the US, but there are a whole heap of things that she regards as more important and that she is impatient to see change happen.
She doesn't want those other changes - on the climate, economy, etc - to take as long.
People like to say that the good thing about pb.com is that there is a wider than normal political mix, but instead of listening to opposing views there's a really annoying habit of telling people what their views are - and naturally those views are always worthy of being derided.
Of course, you will always think better of your views than others - else your views would be different - but a bit more willingness to listen and show respect wouldn't go amiss.
Sigh. I'm summarising what I think the opinion poll is saying for a modal person. This is a betting site and such inferences are important.
Don't take everything so personally.
Says the person who who thinks preferring Truman to Churchill is a "hostile act". You raging loon.
Comments
He's on climate change now, and the bullshit that ditching a plastic bag or two here or there will save the world.
I might hire these guys again - just for the bantz.
I would have thought you would start to see some effect by now and that graph suggests my back of the envelope maths was not wrong. I'm just not sure if we are yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/johnson-raises-fears-of-covid-lockdown-in-england-continuing-into-summertime
Although who knows what will happen when the CRG start shouting. Maybe there has to be one more wave for them to understand the problem with R>1.
In short, it's probably reasonable estimate for when the 15m or so are vaccinated, but should get accelerating effect on infections as more people beyond 15m are vaccinated.
'I am voting Remain so that we can give 350m a week to the NHS'
Cases have started to trend down but not at an incredibly fast rate thus far. I'm unsure about the current level of social distancing etc in Israel. If cases are trending down without draconian restrictions that would be very good news indeed.
Maybe Zahawi is doing a good job, and the vaccines being shifted from north to south is down to an order from Number 10?
Have to say, it'd be interesting if London got ahead on jab numbers. Just to see if they shifted vaccines north. I'm not overwhelmingly convinced that would occur.
Mass non-compliance will develop. Easter weekend may have the right mix of warm weather and length of time under restrictions. It's 10 weeks away.
13 weeks after the first lockdown started, we'd already had the VE day celebrations, where compliance started to fray a bit, and then a good two weeks of on and off BLM and related protests.
As far as I can tell, the build out of the vaccine delivery supply chain has meant that capacity to deliver the vaccine exceeds supply. This is quite probably deliberate. Over supply capacity makes operations smoother in any system. In addition when supplies pick up, they will be used immediately.
What also appears to have happened is that the build out was not even across all areas. The variation in GPs joining the program - some declined to take part. All pretty normal in setting up a nationwide delivery system.
So some areas achieved excess capacity and zoomed ahead, first. Now more facilities have come online in other areas.
There is not enough vaccine to fill all the supply chains to all the areas, at the moment. So a rationing decision has to be made.
So, from the point of people in Yorkshire - they are being penalised for early success.
For the point of view of responsibility for the country as a whole - need to move vaccination towards new capacity that has ben created. Otherwise new capacity won't translate in to jabs.
As an aside, spoke to my son’s teacher yesterday. She has staged a full recovery, and is hale and hearty. Similarly his best mate’s mum. Both were fluey for a fortnight - not nice - but have bounced right back.
My daughter, a younger Remainer female, is naturally delighted that a woman is [finally] in one of the top two Executive posts in the US, but there are a whole heap of things that she regards as more important and that she is impatient to see change happen.
She doesn't want those other changes - on the climate, economy, etc - to take as long.
People like to say that the good thing about pb.com is that there is a wider than normal political mix, but instead of listening to opposing views there's a really annoying habit of telling people what their views are - and naturally those views are always worthy of being derided.
Of course, you will always think better of your views than others - else your views would be different - but a bit more willingness to listen and show respect wouldn't go amiss.
This is because they follow American politics on Twitter/Tik Tok obsessively, fully signed up to BLM etc. So they know all about her record as a DA.
Like pretty much anyone under 18, they hate Brexit, because Brexit.
(Edit: Fiddlesticks - I see Scott beat me to it.)
https://twitter.com/bylinetv/status/1352364589414019073?s=21
Career ending in a normal society.
As pointed out by others, as we continue the rollout to the 65+, the underlying health conditions group, the 60+, the 55+, and so on, that'll keep curving down steeper and steeper.
Also bear in mind that when we get to 4 million jabs a week - well, the number of people in each 5-year age group is around 4 million.
("Age 60-65 this week. Age 55-60 next week. Age 50-55 the week after. Age 45-50 the week after that...")
(Obviously the second jabs will have an effect, but that's illustrative)
Don't take everything so personally.
I suppose if you are a despetate Liberal Democrat you will live in hope.