Just updating my vaccine forecast, new central estimate is that we will have 7m people having had two doses by Easter Sunday and a further 35-38m with one dose by the same point in time. Everyone will have had at least one jab by the end of May and both by the middle of August.
Sounds good, how reliant is that on J&J?
Assumes no new approvals so with J&J it would be faster. Based on Moderna delivering 17m doses starting in April.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
LOL, brilliant. Installing a pirate copy bring slightly easier than turning all their clocks back a couple of years, and infinitely easier than reprogramming everything to work with a non-obsolete platform.
And there was me thinking that IE6 intranet hell from the mid 2000s was a big problem.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
I am assuming you have a full refund option on your flights etc..... wont be with ryanair.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Are you able to give a definitive view as to why about 75% of ICU admissions are of younger people (i.e. the non retired)?
They are the people most likely to benefit. In other countries, with greater ICU capacity, older people do make it in, albeit with grim results. Mean age of ICU patients in the UK is 60, and few have major co morbidities. Some healthy older folk make it in. A quarter are over 72, and a quarter under 50. Even so around a third will not survive.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
I am assuming you have a full refund option on your flights etc..... wont be with ryanair.
Won't be needed. But yes.
Qatar and several airlines have good policies in place. And with booking.com you get free cancellation on most hotels.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Just updating my vaccine forecast, new central estimate is that we will have 7m people having had two doses by Easter Sunday and a further 35-38m with one dose by the same point in time. Everyone will have had at least one jab by the end of May and both by the middle of August.
Have you included the potential one dose J&J in that?
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Maybe it's just me - but it feels inevitable Boris is going to lift restrictions too early. He's consistently made that mistake, and now we've got the "But the vaccination rollout is going really well" factor to deal with.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I think the issue is not so much that will be wide ranging opening up by the summer; it is what happens next winter (assuming the vaccination goes to reasonable plan).
There will be scientists and medics and NHS logistics people arguing it is essential we lock down from October and stop the NHS being flooded by mid winter. This will happen even if 90% of us have been vaccinated imho.
Whether politicians listen to them or decide that the wider economic and social aspects of life must now take precedence is a moot point.
Standby for "NHS to be completely overwhelmed by Xmas say top boffins" headlines by October half term.
Just updating my vaccine forecast, new central estimate is that we will have 7m people having had two doses by Easter Sunday and a further 35-38m with one dose by the same point in time. Everyone will have had at least one jab by the end of May and both by the middle of August.
Have you included the potential one dose J&J in that?
No, only approved vaccines because the efficacy can be modelled. Once we get the J&J data and a delivery timescale I'll add it in.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Indeed. It seems pointless travelling if there are too many restrictions at your destination. I would want bars, restaurants, museums etc to be open fairly normally, public transport running to normal-ish schedules, etc. And then there's entry restrictions. What hoops will you have to jump through to get in, quarantine etc. I'm planning a holiday in October, but I'm not going to book anything until much nearer the time.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Wales for us, I think ....... unless I can find a river cruise for my wife's 80th.......then a 'long trip' around Christmas
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
The IATA vaccine pass will be the passport to freedom of entry to many venues I think.
Pick a country with a high vaccine uptake and later this year should be fine. Thailand is an example. UAE another.
I see a few recency posts appearing. The idea that we're going to eradicate this thing seems impossible to conceive right now but we will and we are. It's all down to vaccination.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Indeed. It seems pointless travelling if there are too many restrictions at your destination. I would want bars, restaurants, museums etc to be open fairly normally, public transport running to normal-ish schedules, etc. And then there's entry restrictions. What hoops will you have to jump through to get in, quarantine etc. I'm planning a holiday in October, but I'm not going to book anything until much nearer the time.
On the other hand, it may be a good year to go sightseeing in honeypot locations such as Paris, Florence, Prague and Barcelona. The crowds will be much reduced and the places more enjoyable with fewer fellow tourists.
"The president has also promised to inject 100 million vaccines in his first 100 days. But that is actually aiming low. Over that period, the number of available doses should be enough for 200 million injections."
I suspect that there may actually have been a surprise attack with nuclear weapons twelve months ago and the whole lot of us have already died and gone to Hell. It would explain a great many things.
Knowing that we can still publish on pb.com in Hell is considerable solace at not having made it upstairs instead....
I suspect that the Devil will soon get pissed off at the AV thread never materialising and endless bickering about Brexit and pineapple on pizza, and plead with St. Peter "take them off my hands....PLEASE!"
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
Latest in the Dan vs Julie Twitter war seems pertinent:
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
I am assuming you have a full refund option on your flights etc..... wont be with ryanair.
This is a betting website. If Ryanair is half the price, and the chance of flying greater than 50%,then surely that is value.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
Latest in the Dan vs Julie Twitter war seems pertinent:
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Indeed. It seems pointless travelling if there are too many restrictions at your destination. I would want bars, restaurants, museums etc to be open fairly normally, public transport running to normal-ish schedules, etc. And then there's entry restrictions. What hoops will you have to jump through to get in, quarantine etc. I'm planning a holiday in October, but I'm not going to book anything until much nearer the time.
On the other hand, it may be a good year to go sightseeing in honeypot locations such as Paris, Florence, Prague and Barcelona. The crowds will be much reduced and the places more enjoyable with fewer fellow tourists.
That is quite possibly true, but probably further reduces the need to book in advance
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Indeed. It seems pointless travelling if there are too many restrictions at your destination. I would want bars, restaurants, museums etc to be open fairly normally, public transport running to normal-ish schedules, etc. And then there's entry restrictions. What hoops will you have to jump through to get in, quarantine etc. I'm planning a holiday in October, but I'm not going to book anything until much nearer the time.
On the other hand, it may be a good year to go sightseeing in honeypot locations such as Paris, Florence, Prague and Barcelona. The crowds will be much reduced and the places more enjoyable with fewer fellow tourists.
That was one of the upsides of my September trip. With hindsight I would have planned it more deliberately to visit locations like that, but as it was towns were much less busy and Alpine walks much less crowded than usual. For 2021 it will of course be a trade off - go earlier and the risks and hassle will be higher; wait until travel is deemed open again, and you risk finding that these places are even busier than usual!
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Wales for us, I think ....... unless I can find a river cruise for my wife's 80th.......then a 'long trip' around Christmas
Staying in one country is probably a good idea - the Volga? They are getting vaxxed up.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
Actually, I am an admirer of Wilberforce. He was a brave man who did great things, but, was he flawed? OF course he fucking was. But so is everyone. Martin Luther King is implicated in gang rape. Gandhi as an old man slept with his teenage nieces. Churchill was a bigoted old drunk, Lincoln was a classical racist.
If you want to tear down every statue of every man or woman with a flaw we now find unacceptable, I genuinely think you would have no statues of anyone born before about 1990. And in ten years we will tearing down them, as well. In 2030 we will be attacking statues of Barack Obama and David Attenborough. It is insane.
Iconoclasm is a classic symptom of a society in crisis.
Sometimes I like to speculate what about our society today will be condemned when the shifting moral zeitgeist has moved on.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Are you able to give a definitive view as to why about 75% of ICU admissions are of younger people (i.e. the non retired)?
Many more of those older may never get to ICU sadly.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
And that's going to be the problem. The scientifically prudent thing will be to have residual restrictions over the summer, targeting September for Business As Usual. The chances of this government resisting the temptation to jump the gun don't look good.
And by now, we really ought to know the consequence of relaxing Covid restrictions prematurely...
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
Latest in the Dan vs Julie Twitter war seems pertinent:
When oh when will we be able to shrug off our shackles and jet off to Barbados?
Any time you want actually. Barbados is open, subject to testing.
I think even with vaccines the virus can be transmitted (as discussed on here, er, quite often), albeit there would be a smaller viral load. So a vaccine (passport) won't make a 100% difference to potential infections.
A negative test, meanwhile, will I believe be with us for some time.
Visitbarbados.org gives a handy calendar of when you need to have had the test although, worryingly, it also says there is a backlog of test results so not sure what that means.
Still, a glass of rose at the beachside tables of the Lone Star is surely in sight.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
Actually, I am an admirer of Wilberforce. He was a brave man who did great things, but, was he flawed? OF course he fucking was. But so is everyone. Martin Luther King is implicated in gang rape. Gandhi as an old man slept with his teenage nieces. Churchill was a bigoted old drunk, Lincoln was a classical racist.
If you want to tear down every statue of every man or woman with a flaw we now find unacceptable, I genuinely think you would have no statues of anyone born before about 1990. And in ten years we will tearing down them, as well. In 2030 we will be attacking statues of Barack Obama and David Attenborough. It is insane.
Iconoclasm is a classic symptom of a society in crisis.
Sometimes I like to speculate what about our society today will be condemned when the shifting moral zeitgeist has moved on.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Are you able to give a definitive view as to why about 75% of ICU admissions are of younger people (i.e. the non retired)?
Many more of those older may never get to ICU sadly.
If you are frail enough (often through sheer age) you'll not be put into ICU as there is no point: the ICU process would be too much for the body. To be blunt.
Medics are making these kinds of decisions everyday as I understand it. Indeed, they do in normal times.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better.
Frankly we're better off dead, although I suspect that there may actually have been a surprise attack with nuclear weapons twelve months ago and the whole lot of us have already died and gone to Hell. It would explain a great many things.
Don't worry, the government knows it can't keep people in lockdown any longer than absolutely necessary.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
First off, between you and @Malmesbury you are putting PB at the forefront of enquiry and analysis of this thing so thanks.
Secondly, people will have to get their heads around the following:
1) vaccinated 80-yr old with Covid but no symptoms; and 2) unvaccinated 20-yr old with Covid but no symptoms.
Both for all intents and purposes and, crucially, an end to restrictions, pose the same risk to the population in isolation. But the 20-yr old is likely to meet plenty more people than the 80-yr old (but perhaps not more than a 40-yr old taking the Central/Northern Line twice a day).
It is from this that the govt must create a sensible way forward.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Hopefully sooner than that.
If we get significant deliveries from J&J then I could see a much faster unlockdown, assuming it gives 80-90% immunity with a single dose. Without that June is the best we can hope for given supply of the existing three approved vaccines.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
Latest in the Dan vs Julie Twitter war seems pertinent:
When oh when will we be able to shrug off our shackles and jet off to Barbados?
Any time you want actually. Barbados is open, subject to testing.
I think even with vaccines the virus can be transmitted (as discussed on here, er, quite often), albeit there would be a smaller viral load. So a vaccine (passport) won't make a 100% difference to potential infections.
A negative test, meanwhile, will I believe be with us for some time.
Visitbarbados.org gives a handy calendar of when you need to have had the test although, worryingly, it also says there is a backlog of test results so not sure what that means.
Still, a glass of rose at the beachside tables of the Lone Star is surely in sight.
(you were asking genuinely, right?)
Nope, but I’m content to start the day by giving a fellow PBer an opportunity for a wee braggette.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
Shall we have a friendly 10 quid bet (winnings to the site) on this?
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
It's an interesting model, but it also makes the odd assumption that the vaccination programme just stops after groups 1-4 are done when we know this won't be the case. I'd like to see their model expanded to groups 5-9 being done before the end of March (which is the blatantly obvious target).
Though at that point the overdue booster need doing for groups 1-4.
Personally, I would not forecast major relaxations before Easter or ending social distancing before the autumn, though hopefully we could mostly be in Tier 2.
No, the first booster shots start in March, and capacity requirements are pretty low for quite a while given the slow December ramp up we had.
I think by the end of April hospitalisations and deaths will be so low that the government will have to relent on the lockdown, Tory MPs will threaten Boris if he keeps it going. Those green and yellow lines will keep falling, and vaccination capacity will keep rising, we don't stop after 15m people are jabbed a single time.
Er, what you have said agrees with my timescale. Easter is the first weekend of April.
I don't think it will take until autumn. By the middle of June we should have some level of here immunity by partial vaccine immunity and prior infection.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
Latest in the Dan vs Julie Twitter war seems pertinent:
When oh when will we be able to shrug off our shackles and jet off to Barbados?
Any time you want actually. Barbados is open, subject to testing.
I think even with vaccines the virus can be transmitted (as discussed on here, er, quite often), albeit there would be a smaller viral load. So a vaccine (passport) won't make a 100% difference to potential infections.
A negative test, meanwhile, will I believe be with us for some time.
Visitbarbados.org gives a handy calendar of when you need to have had the test although, worryingly, it also says there is a backlog of test results so not sure what that means.
Still, a glass of rose at the beachside tables of the Lone Star is surely in sight.
(you were asking genuinely, right?)
Nope, but I’m content to start the day by giving a fellow PBer an opportunity for a wee braggette.
Just updating my vaccine forecast, new central estimate is that we will have 7m people having had two doses by Easter Sunday and a further 35-38m with one dose by the same point in time. Everyone will have had at least one jab by the end of May and both by the middle of August.
All on schedule for my holiday break (whilst delivering son to University) in October then. Excellent.
Actually, I am an admirer of Wilberforce. He was a brave man who did great things, but, was he flawed? OF course he fucking was. But so is everyone. Martin Luther King is implicated in gang rape. Gandhi as an old man slept with his teenage nieces. Churchill was a bigoted old drunk, Lincoln was a classical racist.
If you want to tear down every statue of every man or woman with a flaw we now find unacceptable, I genuinely think you would have no statues of anyone born before about 1990. And in ten years we will tearing down them, as well. In 2030 we will be attacking statues of Barack Obama and David Attenborough. It is insane.
Iconoclasm is a classic symptom of a society in crisis.
Sometimes I like to speculate what about our society today will be condemned when the shifting moral zeitgeist has moved on.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Are you able to give a definitive view as to why about 75% of ICU admissions are of younger people (i.e. the non retired)?
Many more of those older may never get to ICU sadly.
If you are frail enough (often through sheer age) you'll not be put into ICU as there is no point: the ICU process would be too much for the body. To be blunt.
Medics are making these kinds of decisions everyday as I understand it. Indeed, they do in normal times.
It is my understanding that the full ventilator process is extremely stressful for the body.
Foxy?
This was why the newer methods/gadgets for delivering extra oxygen were taken up with such enthusiasm, I believe.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
I get that but (a) I was expecting a much bigger reduction in cases once 15m people had received 1 jab and a significant level of protection and (b) I was expecting much bigger reduction in hospital admissions and ICU admissions given that this is the cohort thought to be most at risk. I really hope that this turns out to be pessimistic.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
This is presumably only based on the published vaccination plan - i.e. the priority groups, hence the flat lines at the end of the graph (due to no additional vaccinations). There will of course be further vaccinations, so the lines will continue to drop.
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
First off, between you and @Malmesbury you are putting PB at the forefront of enquiry and analysis of this thing so thanks.
Secondly, people will have to get their heads around the following:
1) vaccinated 80-yr old with Covid but no symptoms; and 2) unvaccinated 20-yr old with Covid but no symptoms.
Both for all intents and purposes and, crucially, an end to restrictions, pose the same risk to the population in isolation. But the 20-yr old is likely to meet plenty more people than the 80-yr old (but perhaps not more than a 40-yr old taking the Central/Northern Line twice a day).
It is from this that the govt must create a sensible way forward.
No worries, I agree with that premise too. Which is why I think by June the pressure will tell. All over 18s will have had their first jab by then, at least half will have had the second one too. So that's full immunity from symptoms for all over 50s and partial immunity from symptoms for all under 50s, with the latter group still in the process of gaining full immunity.
We will have been in this bullshit for well over a year by then and the pressure will be massive because the daily numbers will be single figure deaths and double figure cases with a very low impact to hospitals.
The government has talked about defeating the virus a lot. If we keep these awful life restrictions after that has happened in a practical sense (almost no one dying it ending up in hospital) then people will start asking to what end are we still making these lifestyle sacrifices which is a vote loser.
BBC: "A group of 14 British students staying in the Chamonix area of France have tested positive for Covid."
What the feck are they doing in France?!?!?!?!?
Some people have been stuck in their homes since March last year and other people are still going on foreign trips. Unless they're helping to do research on the vaccine or something important like that.
Now is a great time to plan a holiday. I've already booked one for end of the year and I intend booking two more.
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
One problem will be that there are likely to be extensive restrictions in most destinations. You may be able to get there, but who wants to mask up on a beach?
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
Wales for us, I think ....... unless I can find a river cruise for my wife's 80th.......then a 'long trip' around Christmas
Staying in one country is probably a good idea - the Volga? They are getting vaxxed up.
Good thought. Thanks. Another is the Douro. Both the Rhine and the Danube go through too many countries; one forgets all the complications we've now got back to!
Actually, I am an admirer of Wilberforce. He was a brave man who did great things, but, was he flawed? OF course he fucking was. But so is everyone. Martin Luther King is implicated in gang rape. Gandhi as an old man slept with his teenage nieces. Churchill was a bigoted old drunk, Lincoln was a classical racist.
If you want to tear down every statue of every man or woman with a flaw we now find unacceptable, I genuinely think you would have no statues of anyone born before about 1990. And in ten years we will tearing down them, as well. In 2030 we will be attacking statues of Barack Obama and David Attenborough. It is insane.
Iconoclasm is a classic symptom of a society in crisis.
Sometimes I like to speculate what about our society today will be condemned when the shifting moral zeitgeist has moved on.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Are you able to give a definitive view as to why about 75% of ICU admissions are of younger people (i.e. the non retired)?
Many more of those older may never get to ICU sadly.
If you are frail enough (often through sheer age) you'll not be put into ICU as there is no point: the ICU process would be too much for the body. To be blunt.
Medics are making these kinds of decisions everyday as I understand it. Indeed, they do in normal times.
Though a quarter on ICU are over 72, and some over 80. There is no age bar if benefit is likely.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
Yes, it is a dose of reality, but it also means that NHS hopefully moves from overwhelmed to busy, which while not ideal the latter is better than the former. It would appear that we will need to continue to have various measures until much later in the year, but hopefully as Spring and Summer comes there will be gradual improvement. Let's be careful out there!
Yes, but that is not enough to abolish social distancing completely, hence I said autumn.
The pressure to unlock and go back to the old normal when there are just double figure cases and localised outbreaks because of BAME anti-vaxxers will be too high by mid-June.
Less than 100 cases/day by mid June is a bold prediction. It's possible but seems very optimistic to me.
The actual number of cases will be a lot higher but after being immunised hardly anyone will present symptoms so won't get tested.
First off, between you and @Malmesbury you are putting PB at the forefront of enquiry and analysis of this thing so thanks.
Secondly, people will have to get their heads around the following:
1) vaccinated 80-yr old with Covid but no symptoms; and 2) unvaccinated 20-yr old with Covid but no symptoms.
Both for all intents and purposes and, crucially, an end to restrictions, pose the same risk to the population in isolation. But the 20-yr old is likely to meet plenty more people than the 80-yr old (but perhaps not more than a 40-yr old taking the Central/Northern Line twice a day).
It is from this that the govt must create a sensible way forward.
No worries, I agree with that premise too. Which is why I think by June the pressure will tell. All over 18s will have had their first jab by then, at least half will have had the second one too. So that's full immunity from symptoms for all over 50s and partial immunity from symptoms for all under 50s, with the latter group still in the process of gaining full immunity.
We will have been in this bullshit for well over a year by then and the pressure will be massive because the daily numbers will be single figure deaths and double figure cases with a very low impact to hospitals.
The government has talked about defeating the virus a lot. If we keep these awful life restrictions after that has happened in a practical sense (almost no one dying it ending up in hospital) then people will start asking to what end are we still making these lifestyle sacrifices which is a vote loser.
Absolutely agree and as, I think, you noted earlier "Cons MPs will put pressure on the govt".
It is a strange situation when we are relying on the likes of eg Steve Baker to deliver us from this when it is sensible to do so.
Although by popular agreement, we simply can't afford to keep the restrictions longer than a minute more than they are necessary.
And this is where I have time for @contrarian. Because whatever the merits of his particular posts to date, without voices such as his, articulated in the HoC by Baker, the temptation would be to "follow the science" and as we have seen today, plenty of "scientists" advocate almost an until further notice restrictive regime.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
This is presumably only based on the published vaccination plan - i.e. the priority groups, hence the flat lines at the end of the graph (due to no additional vaccinations). There will of course be further vaccinations, so the lines will continue to drop.
Indeed but see my reply. 15m is nearly 25% of the adult population and the number of cases falls by 15%? If correct that suggests that herd immunity is working a lot less efficiently than I had hoped. I expected that the more "dead ends" there were in society for the virus the lower the R number would fall. There must surely be some critical mass point at which the effect becomes much greater if this is correct.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
I presume the lower ICU drop is due to the average age for ICU COVID patients being lower?
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
I get that but (a) I was expecting a much bigger reduction in cases once 15m people had received 1 jab and a significant level of protection and (b) I was expecting much bigger reduction in hospital admissions and ICU admissions given that this is the cohort thought to be most at risk. I really hope that this turns out to be pessimistic.
It looks about right to me, but the limitation is that it stops after 15m so you end up with an asymptotic line on the X axis, in reality we wil be adding 3-4m new people to the single dose cohort every week so that downwards slope doesn't get any shallower, it continues to trend towards zero as more people get their first jab. The scenario is flawed.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
I presume the lower ICU drop is due to the average age for ICU COVID patients being lower?
Yes, that was what they said on More or Less this week
The slopes of the various lines are the consequence of the vaccination programme working its way down the age profile from the top
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
The graphs finish in March, and will get better afterwards, and post discharge relapse frequent. This is a marathon not a sprint.
It could all be knocked off course if uptake is poor (still only 52% of over eighties in Leics have had a single dose) or new variants resistant, or the extended interval insufficiently protective. 19% of serious cases in Israel have had one dose for example.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
I presume the lower ICU drop is due to the average age for ICU COVID patients being lower?
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
It's not wrong, it's just looking at a very specific scenario, single jab to 15m oldies. It assumes the programme stops after that which it won't. So it's saying that giving 15m over 70s a single jab has these effects, but it doesn't say that this is the total amount of reduction the vaccine will bring.
I presume the lower ICU drop is due to the average age for ICU COVID patients being lower?
Again I may be wrong but the impression I have had is that the average age in ICUs is lower because that form of invasive treatment is only given to those with the best prospects for survival and that tends to be younger than the average age of those seriously ill.
Hey @TheScreamingEagles I have one final "Professional Conduct" exam tomorrow. I'll be sure to apply everything you've taught me on here over the years.
Just remember that ethics is a county in Southern England where everyone looks like they've been gangbanged by a pack of wotsits.
Also remember that
1) I would not do well in prison
2) The scandal would kill my mother
3) It would be a career ender and I like earning money
But saying the below might see you through
1) Morally it is the wrong thing to do
2) It would cause a lack of trust in the profession
3) There are no victimless crimes
Ahem ...... when it comes to professional misbehaviour and conduct ..... ** ..waves hello ...**
Absolutely agree and as, I think, you noted earlier "Cons MPs will put pressure on the govt".
It is a strange situation when we are relying on the likes of eg Steve Baker to deliver us from this when it is sensible to do so.
Although by popular agreement, we simply can't afford to keep the restrictions longer than a minute more than they are necessary.
And this is where I have time for @contrarian. Because whatever the merits of his particular posts to date, without voices such as his, articulated in the HoC by Baker, the temptation would be to "follow the science" and as we have seen today, plenty of "scientists" advocate almost an until further notice restrictive regime.
I don't agree with you on the longer than a minute bit. I was talking to a pretty libertarian friend who is really chafing under the restrictions, and she said, "What is really essential for me, though, is that they carry on as long as necessary this time, without any more family get-togethers or other fucking Government indulgences, so that when things ease up they stay eased. We can get through this one more time, especially with days getting lighter, but if we eased off and then had to go back to lockdown then patience would snap."
I think people really do feel it's the hour before the dawn, but are up for restrictions into early summer to make sure it's not a false dawn.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better. .
Calm down. He's not in charge, I promise you.
As infection rates continue falling and the vaccinations rise the clamour for relaxation will become such a groundswell that the learned Prof will be shunted to the sidelines. I promise.
The Govt are making sure at the moment that they give no impression of relaxation. If they do they could blow the great work going on right now to curb the virus.
Vaccination is not going to reduce pressure quickly on the NHS. Covid Actuary has modelled the effect on deaths, and these do indeed come down significantly, but admissions much less so, and ICU admissions less still.
This relies on the assumptions that a single dose is 70% effective at preventing disease, and 100% effective in stopping serious disease, which some would question.
This means that social measures cannot be abandoned just yet. A 59% reduction in admissions still means 180 admissions in my Trust, and a 34% reduction in ICU would still leave 20 odd covid ICU and a similar number of HDU. This would remain a major hindrance to normal NHS activity.
Blimey, I hope that is wrong. Vaccination only reduces the number of new cases by 15%? That is a desperately low figure.
I think that's only in the early phase as we're vaccinating people that wouldn't have been out and about much anyway. The R rate will come down much more as we get into the under 70s.
Absolutely agree and as, I think, you noted earlier "Cons MPs will put pressure on the govt".
It is a strange situation when we are relying on the likes of eg Steve Baker to deliver us from this when it is sensible to do so.
Although by popular agreement, we simply can't afford to keep the restrictions longer than a minute more than they are necessary.
And this is where I have time for @contrarian. Because whatever the merits of his particular posts to date, without voices such as his, articulated in the HoC by Baker, the temptation would be to "follow the science" and as we have seen today, plenty of "scientists" advocate almost an until further notice restrictive regime.
I don't agree with you on the longer than a minute bit. I was talking to a pretty libertarian friend who is really chafing under the restrictions, and she said, "What is really essential for me, though, is that they carry on as long as necessary this time, without any more family get-togethers or other fucking Government indulgences, so that when things ease up they stay eased. We can get through this one more time, especially with days getting lighter, but if we eased off and then had to go back to lockdown then patience would snap."
I think people really do feel it's the hour before the dawn, but are up for restrictions into early summer to make sure it's not a false dawn.
Don't cut my quote off, Nick "longer than a minute more than they are necessary".
Hey @TheScreamingEagles I have one final "Professional Conduct" exam tomorrow. I'll be sure to apply everything you've taught me on here over the years.
Just remember that ethics is a county in Southern England where everyone looks like they've been gangbanged by a pack of wotsits.
Also remember that
1) I would not do well in prison
2) The scandal would kill my mother
3) It would be a career ender and I like earning money
But saying the below might see you through
1) Morally it is the wrong thing to do
2) It would cause a lack of trust in the profession
3) There are no victimless crimes
Ahem ...... when it comes to professional misbehaviour and conduct ..... ** ..waves hello ...**
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give or take two or three I'm with your hedge chopper. Talking about choppers don't you spell 'nob' with a 'k'?
On topic, my reading of the poll is that both Leavers and Remainers are pleased Trump has gone (there really isn't much in this) it's just that Leavers think Biden will be a marginal/moderate improvement, whereas Remainers think the sun shines out of his arse.
The first female VP president presents a starker contrast on views. There's also (see YouGov) a marked gender split on this one.
Basically, if you're an older, Leaver male you couldn't give a toss and think it's irrelevant. If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give or take two or three I'm with your hedge chopper. Talking about choppers don't you spell 'nob' with a 'k'?
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Interesting to know the age demographic of your gardeners. Diana's death was 25 years ago. Or are they discussing it as an historical event?
I was once very close to going to prison and as the trial loomed I found myself looking forward to it because knew I'd thrive. Boarding school and the RN would have prepared me for the food and sleeping in the presence of relentlessly enthusiastically enthusiastic masturbators.
Mornin' all. Half an hour of watching Priti Patel on the box yesterday is infectious. Got to agree with her, and the advisors, though; now isn't the time to be planning travel, much though I want to.
Can someone find something positive, please, apart from the news about Nissan. That about Biden taking over has worn off a bit, I'm afraid.
Already worn out - like, I suspect, most of us to a greater or lesser degree - by nearly a year of this bullshit, I wake this morning to find that the mad scientists are once again raising the prospect of continuing to punish us for breathing for the rest of time...
There is also pressure from scientists to maintain robust restrictions because research suggests vaccination alone may not be enough to shrink the coronavirus epidemic.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, chair of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said even in a best-case scenario it was unlikely vaccine uptake would be above 90%, meaning about 1 million vulnerable people would remain susceptible to Covid after the first phase of the programme. In addition, none of the approved Covid vaccines have a greater than 95% efficacy against Covid symptoms.
“The general consensus is that a gradual releasing of restrictions would be possible but we would have to feel our way there, the way we did after the first lockdown,” Woolhouse said. But he added: “If [Covid vaccines] can’t take us past the [herd immunity] threshold, then we are going to be living with some kind of countermeasures for ever.”
Given that cruel lunatics like this are now clearly in complete control of events, we must face a future in which masks, social distancing, staying at home and never seeing most of the people we love again except remotely through a screen is what we've got left. It will never get better.
Frankly we're better off dead, although I suspect that there may actually have been a surprise attack with nuclear weapons twelve months ago and the whole lot of us have already died and gone to Hell. It would explain a great many things.
That looks like an assumption too far, perhaps. Is the 90% overall or amongst the vulnerable groups?
This year even the flu jab achieved more than 80% penetration amongst the 65+ groups, with stepped down but higher than usual penetration as it went through the tiers.
I would expect way over 90% penetration amongst care home residents and 80+ for example, but I have no idea on an overall population number.
I've got a local landscape gardening firm around today in Hampshire. All three are WWC men.
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
Give or take two or three I'm with your hedge chopper. Talking about choppers don't you spell 'nob' with a 'k'?
I think the most interesting thing for me (and I'm going to put my headphones on it a minute so I can do some work; he's very loud) is how complicated and mixed "ordinary" people's views can be.
He's on Trump now and has said he disappointed the White Supremacists and militias because he wasn't supremacist enough; his "wall" was simply continuing what Obama and Biden were doing on the Mexican border in the previous administration - people attack him because he's a c*nt but forget his policies are popular.
Comments
Of course Government and advisors are going to tell us not to. The last thing they want is any impression that we can begin relaxing. And likewise you'll see plenty of stats and graphs warning that the sunlit uplands aren't just around the corner. Blah blah.
Providing no mutation sidesteps the vaccine we're beating the virus. The UK is in the global vanguard and we will see dramatic drops in infection rates as the vaccine rollout builds up. Deaths will diminish to flu levels and become something we simply learn to live with c. 16,000 - 20,000 per annum.
It's time to plan holidays. I've booked one in November and intend another in September. I see little reason not to book summer holidays.
And there was me thinking that IE6 intranet hell from the mid 2000s was a big problem.
https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
Qatar and several airlines have good policies in place. And with booking.com you get free cancellation on most hotels.
I am considering an autumn trip to somewhere safe like Madeira, but other wise the Isle of Wight for me.
There will be scientists and medics and NHS logistics people arguing it is essential we lock down from October and stop the NHS being flooded by mid winter. This will happen even if 90% of us have been vaccinated imho.
Whether politicians listen to them or decide that the wider economic and social aspects of life must now take precedence is a moot point.
Standby for "NHS to be completely overwhelmed by Xmas say top boffins" headlines by October half term.
Pick a country with a high vaccine uptake and later this year should be fine. Thailand is an example. UAE another.
I see a few recency posts appearing. The idea that we're going to eradicate this thing seems impossible to conceive right now but we will and we are. It's all down to vaccination.
NYTimes
I suspect that the Devil will soon get pissed off at the AV thread never materialising and endless bickering about Brexit and pineapple on pizza, and plead with St. Peter "take them off my hands....PLEASE!"
https://twitter.com/mcauleydeclan/status/1351995288966352897?s=21
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1352363007410647047
And by now, we really ought to know the consequence of relaxing Covid restrictions prematurely...
I think even with vaccines the virus can be transmitted (as discussed on here, er, quite often), albeit there would be a smaller viral load. So a vaccine (passport) won't make a 100% difference to potential infections.
A negative test, meanwhile, will I believe be with us for some time.
Visitbarbados.org gives a handy calendar of when you need to have had the test although, worryingly, it also says there is a backlog of test results so not sure what that means.
Still, a glass of rose at the beachside tables of the Lone Star is surely in sight.
(you were asking genuinely, right?)
Medics are making these kinds of decisions everyday as I understand it. Indeed, they do in normal times.
Secondly, people will have to get their heads around the following:
1) vaccinated 80-yr old with Covid but no symptoms; and
2) unvaccinated 20-yr old with Covid but no symptoms.
Both for all intents and purposes and, crucially, an end to restrictions, pose the same risk to the population in isolation. But the 20-yr old is likely to meet plenty more people than the 80-yr old (but perhaps not more than a 40-yr old taking the Central/Northern Line twice a day).
It is from this that the govt must create a sensible way forward.
Specifically - I bet that the 7 day average of COVID 19 cases in the UK (according to https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) will be greater than 99.9 on 15 June 2021.
What the feck are they doing in France?!?!?!?!?
Foxy?
This was why the newer methods/gadgets for delivering extra oxygen were taken up with such enthusiasm, I believe.
https://twitter.com/lord_sugar/status/1352439238088773633?s=21
Edit: Ah, see @MaxPB already made this point...
We will have been in this bullshit for well over a year by then and the pressure will be massive because the daily numbers will be single figure deaths and double figure cases with a very low impact to hospitals.
The government has talked about defeating the virus a lot. If we keep these awful life restrictions after that has happened in a practical sense (almost no one dying it ending up in hospital) then people will start asking to what end are we still making these lifestyle sacrifices which is a vote loser.
The postmark cuts through Henry I's beard so it is worth even more, apparently.
It is a strange situation when we are relying on the likes of eg Steve Baker to deliver us from this when it is sensible to do so.
Although by popular agreement, we simply can't afford to keep the restrictions longer than a minute more than they are necessary.
And this is where I have time for @contrarian. Because whatever the merits of his particular posts to date, without voices such as his, articulated in the HoC by Baker, the temptation would be to "follow the science" and as we have seen today, plenty of "scientists" advocate almost an until further notice restrictive regime.
The slopes of the various lines are the consequence of the vaccination programme working its way down the age profile from the top
Typical, the savvy Sugarman has hoovered up all the value.
Oh noes. The R word. In the Title.
(Dives back under duvet)
The owner loves his politics - currently cutting my hedge - and debating with his men. So far, from my bedroom window, I've heard him rant about Brexit (not a fan), Corbyn (total idiot), Politicians in general (all liars and he's known this since he was 8), thinks the health secretary is a nob, is worried about China, thinks the reaction to Princess Diana's death was massively OTT, thinks the Sri Lankans are more British than the British, doesn't like political correctness, and hates virtual signalling. He's currently ranting about David Blaine being a twat.
He's only been here twenty minutes.
It could all be knocked off course if uptake is poor (still only 52% of over eighties in Leics have had a single dose) or new variants resistant, or the extended interval insufficiently protective. 19% of serious cases in Israel have had one dose for example.
Remember when they ran a Biden campaign coach off the road? I was astonished that wasn't treated as an actual criminal attack.....
I think people really do feel it's the hour before the dawn, but are up for restrictions into early summer to make sure it's not a false dawn.
https://twitter.com/JohnFerry18/status/1352543867606855682?s=20
with a 'k'?
The first female VP president presents a starker contrast on views. There's also (see YouGov) a marked gender split on this one.
Basically, if you're an older, Leaver male you couldn't give a toss and think it's irrelevant. If you're a younger Remainer female you'll think it's a truly historic moment, and the most important event of the year.
https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1352380626385698838
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/patient-dog-waits-for-days-outside-hospital
or an old-but-spiky story:
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2021/jan/22/judi-dench-in-my-minds-eye-im-six-foot-and-willowy-and-about-39
This year even the flu jab achieved more than 80% penetration amongst the 65+ groups, with stepped down but higher than usual penetration as it went through the tiers.
I would expect way over 90% penetration amongst care home residents and 80+ for example, but I have no idea on an overall population number.
He's on Trump now and has said he disappointed the White Supremacists and militias because he wasn't supremacist enough; his "wall" was simply continuing what Obama and Biden were doing on the Mexican border in the previous administration - people attack him because he's a c*nt but forget his policies are popular.
This guy should go on Question Time.