Record deaths - but cases still trending down and admissions growth slowing.
1,820 dead and only 142 new admissions - does that suggest some easing off of the pressure on the NHS (grim as that process undoubtedly is)?
No, that's the increase in the number of admissions vs the previous 7 days. The actual number is 3,887 admitted to hospitals on the 16th, it's still a massive disaster.
Terrible numbers indeed. We probably have another 2 weeks of this, specifically on deaths. And then, hopefully, a sharp improvement.
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
Safe enough to put down Blunt as a vote to convict ?
Sounds like it.
It seems to be getting to a tipping point.
There's safety in numbers. They'll be talking to each other and sounding each other out. If everyone is angry with Trump then they can all stick the knife in now together, not leave one person holding it.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
And it's more complicated still than that, as prior infection confers some immunity. It's not true to say that you're either 100% immune, or 0% - everyone will develop some kind of immune response. Which is perhaps why, for example, AZN didn't see any serious cases is the vaccine arm of their clinical trial - and probably also why viruses persist in the general population, but become less virulent.
And still lots of uncertainties with Covid. We don't know if it will fairly rapidly (thanks to mass vaccination) become a non-virulent endemic virus like the other common cold coronaviruses, or if we're going to have to continue develop vaccines against nasty mutations for some time.
Yeah, I know it is more complex than that, including potential cross reactivity of immune responses to the common cold corona viruses. I was just using this simplistic example to demonstrate the idea that herd immunity requires a greater percentage of the population to be vaccinated the less effective the vaccine is.
Not going to be surprised if we exceed 2000 deaths by a significant amount in next day or two. So many in hospital it is inevitable
But please can we talk about day of death, not day of reporting!!!!!!!!!!!
That's of course what I was referring to. We aren't the BBC, Sky, etc here.
Seems unlikely as the worst day of death is currently at 1080 (ish be eyeball)
1,110 and yes, agree with the sentiment, I think today might end up being the peak by reporting date as we've backfilled the weekend and next week should be a bit lower.
I don't think we are going to see another 150k daily on top of that this week.
I think we will get around 450k per day done on average from Wed-Tues.
Daily Mail currently.rewriting all the articles they did over the past 2 days in regards to how badly the vaccine roll out is going....
It's going from Murder Tuesday to why we don't need lockdowns.
Its coverage really has been off the charts...flipping from the government is useless for locking down too slowly to the government is useless for not opening up quickly enough in the time it takes to hit f5.
If you think the articles are off the charts, read some of the comments below them.
One chap posted that he thinks the NHS staff is something like 60% BAME & gays and they are providing a rubbish service to help the great replacement of white project.
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
So Trump almost succeeded in his efforts to inspire a coup against his democratically elected opponents, but it's the latter who represent the " crusade against the American project." Hmm... I am calling bollocks on this one.
I'm curious as to what Brendan's mental image is when he types out "the American project".
We have officially had a higher peak of deaths in the second wave, 1110 on the 12th of Jan vs 1073 on the 8th of April, I think the number starts to fall from there but at a slower rate than it did in the first wave where we had less overall activity and we weren't contending with a more infectious strain.
At the moment the cases look to me to be going down almost as fast as they went up. Let's hope that continues as it is still early days in that downward trend. Last year it was a much slower decrease.
7 day case averages went up by up 60% week to week (and a lot more than that in some places like Liverpool). They're going down by around 20% week-to-week at the moment.
So as usual, a delayed lockdown means a longer lockdown to get back to the same level, killing more people along the way.
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
Looks like G-POLX is heading back to Doncaster Airport.
I wonder what that was all about.
Where was it planned to go?
Over our house about 20 times!
You mean you've never had the helicopter hovering over your house in the past?
Must be a very posh area...with gates...
Oh yeah, we've had the helicopter before. First time for a fixed wing aircraft. And there are gates, causes a bit of a hassle with the Waitrose deliveries.
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
So Trump almost succeeded in his efforts to inspire a coup against his democratically elected opponents, but it's the latter who represent the " crusade against the American project." Hmm... I am calling bollocks on this one.
I'm curious as to what Brendan's mental image is when he types out "the American project".
Whatever the image we can be sure it will be mental.
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Try explaining what your first computer cost and how much memory you got with it: I normally have to explain what KB are at that point. (I do this in the lesson on SI prefixes).
Not yet. That happens at 12.00 ET - automatically when his term expires. Which is why they swear the replacements in beforehand. Trump is still President & Pence VP for another 11 minutes.
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Until quite recently I used to still have a Nokia 3310 lying around, as a emergency backup phone. I explained that it used to be thought of the absolute dogs of mobiles and snake was the fortnite of its time...bemused looks...
NI seem to have had a bit of a stall on vaccinations after quick start. Wales still struggling. Scotland doing better.
Arrgh - keep forgetting this one. % of nations vaccinated....
You should add a trigger warning for Malc on this one.
Christ. As bad as Wales. How bad is that?
I would have thought it would be easier to roll out the initial vaccine in Scotland as well given large chunks of its population (80%, at a guess) live in only about eight or nine major urban centres with good medical facilities. In Wales, there are an awful lot of smallish remote communities that must make vaccination a logistical nightmare - and in the exception, the Valleys, the infrastructure is at best erratic.
On top of that, Wales’ government is about as incompetent as it’s possible to be without every member actually being Gavin Williamson.
So if that graph is accurate it’s a pretty poor performance by your fellow countrymen.
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Until quite recently I used to still have a Nokia 3310 lying around, as a emergency backup phone. I explained that it used to be thought of the absolute dogs of mobiles and snake was the fortnite of its time...bemused looks...
I fear that one is still being used by my less technically advanced spouse.
So remind me - when do Biden, Obama, Clinton et al get arrested by the Secret Service and hauled away in chains to the deep underground chamber for the public trials?
NI seem to have had a bit of a stall on vaccinations after quick start. Wales still struggling. Scotland doing better.
Arrgh - keep forgetting this one. % of nations vaccinated....
You should add a trigger warning for Malc on this one.
Christ. As bad as Wales. How bad is that?
I think the last number I saw was Scotland on care home residents vaccinated was 90%. Isn't concentrating on that part of the reason Scotland's rate is slower?
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Try explaining what your first computer cost and how much memory you got with it: I normally have to explain what KB are at that point. (I do this in the lesson on SI prefixes).
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
Criticizing Woke and Identity Politics is one thing (I did it myself a few weeks ago).
But Trump didn't do that.
Trump did Identity Politics for whites who felt left behind.
Interesting then, he managed to get so many Hispanics to vote for him. In places like Florida!
What were they thinking?
He got plenty of Jews to vote for him too, despite him praising Neo Nazis, being supported by people who wore 7MWE and Aushwitz T-Shirts, and making a speech where he said Jews "weren't people like us".
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Try explaining what your first computer cost and how much memory you got with it: I normally have to explain what KB are at that point. (I do this in the lesson on SI prefixes).
I was always fond of my ZX81 1K.
I had you down as too young to have had one of those!
NI seem to have had a bit of a stall on vaccinations after quick start. Wales still struggling. Scotland doing better.
Arrgh - keep forgetting this one. % of nations vaccinated....
You should add a trigger warning for Malc on this one.
Christ. As bad as Wales. How bad is that?
I would have thought it would be easier to roll out the initial vaccine in Scotland as well given large chunks of its population (80%, at a guess) live in only about eight or nine major urban centres with good medical facilities. In Wales, there are an awful lot of smallish remote communities that must make vaccination a logistical nightmare - and in the exception, the Valleys, the infrastructure is at best erratic.
On top of that, Wales’ government is about as it’s possible to be without every member actually being Gavin Williamson.
So if that graph is accurate it’s a pretty poor performance by your fellow countrymen.
To explain it would take detailed data we don't have, as yet.
So remind me - when do Biden, Obama, Clinton et al get arrested by the Secret Service and hauled away in chains to the deep underground chamber for the public trials?
No you're behind the 8-ball, I think the person speaking now is supposed to be Trump but with Biden's face.
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff member what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
I explained to a young lady at work today what was a conference room spider phone. She never remembered a time we didn’t have at least Skype for video calls.
So remind me - when do Biden, Obama, Clinton et al get arrested by the Secret Service and hauled away in chains to the deep underground chamber for the public trials?
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
NI seem to have had a bit of a stall on vaccinations after quick start. Wales still struggling. Scotland doing better.
Arrgh - keep forgetting this one. % of nations vaccinated....
You should add a trigger warning for Malc on this one.
Christ. As bad as Wales. How bad is that?
I think the last number I saw was Scotland on care home residents vaccinated was 90%. Isn't concentrating on that part of the reason Scotland's rate is slower?
I hope so. It just seems to be extremely bureaucratic. The Health Boards are not covering themselves in glory.
NI seem to have had a bit of a stall on vaccinations after quick start. Wales still struggling. Scotland doing better.
Arrgh - keep forgetting this one. % of nations vaccinated....
You should add a trigger warning for Malc on this one.
Christ. As bad as Wales. How bad is that?
Isn't that because they are doing the oldies in care homes and the infirm/sheltering at home first? Or have things moved on?
If that's the case then it's a misunderstanding of how vaccines work. They should be doing as many people as possible all the time. Leaving doses in the fridge and other vulnerable groups not done because the first group isn't fully done makes no sense. If it means throwing more bodies at starting the next group simultaneously as England has done for the over 70s cohort then that's what they need to do. It's like having a dual core processor instead of a single core one, you do multiple tasks at the same time, not just one.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
BT have announced end of life for POTS lines
That is my fault. I ended my BT contract a couple of weeks ago.
I switched my in-laws to Sky from BT due to their ridiculous monthly bill (well, it was their daughter, my wife, who harassed them into agreeing, I just organised it and set up the kit). All kinds of problems when it turned out Sky are not using POTS for new subscribers routinely, instead VOIP (although handled at the router, so you can plug your POTS phone into the router):
"You plug the phone in here"
"Ok, don't forget the splitter because we have this ancient phone plugged in along with the wireless one in case of a power cut"
"If there's a power cut the router will go off and neither phone will work. But both your mobiles will still work"
"But what if there's a power cut and someone wants to call us?"
"They'll probably call your mobile if you don't answer the landline"
(above several times over several days).
To be fair, Sky should have made it - and the implications - obvious. All there was in sign-up was a question about whether any personal assistance alarms were installed (selecting yes would have got them a POTS line for the power cut issue)
So remind me - when do Biden, Obama, Clinton et al get arrested by the Secret Service and hauled away in chains to the deep underground chamber for the public trials?
No you're behind the 8-ball, I think the person speaking now is supposed to be Trump but with Biden's face.
If we could convince the Qanon nutters that Biden is Trump with a funny costume and mask, that would reunite America like nothing else could.
"This isn’t to say Trump is without guilt in this process. On the contrary, he played an important role in intensifying the elite turn against the ideals of the New World. By launching rhetorical crusades against woke excesses without creating the institutional or intellectual apparatus for preserving and celebrating American virtues, Trump helped to make things worse. He enraged the cultural elites and provoked them to ever-more illiberal assaults on freedom of speech and historical memory while failing to create the organisational structures that might have withstood such assaults. Trump was an instrument too blunt to be able to hold back the new crusade against the American project."
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Try explaining what your first computer cost and how much memory you got with it: I normally have to explain what KB are at that point. (I do this in the lesson on SI prefixes).
I was always fond of my ZX81 1K.
I had you down as too young to have had one of those!
It was gift from a neighbour.
I was old enough to get the Spectrum 128K +3 though.
My first ever proper computer in 1992, as a callow teenager, had 2 MB of RAM, which I'm fairly certain was top of the range.
I remember when Obama became POTUS and how the Secret Service/DIA were worried that his Blackberry was a security risk.
To which the kids say what's a blackberry.....
I officially became an old git in 2019 when I explained to a very young staff what Ceefax was.
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
My neighbours kids don't really believe there was a time before the internet....at least not experienced by those that aren't pushing 80.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Tell them what was included in your first ever mobile contract monthly allowance and the price.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
Try explaining what your first computer cost and how much memory you got with it: I normally have to explain what KB are at that point. (I do this in the lesson on SI prefixes).
My first computer cost 1k-ish. It had 48k of memory.
Comments
Criticizing Woke and Identity Politics is one thing (I did it myself a few weeks ago).
But Trump didn't do that.
Trump did Identity Politics for whites who felt left behind.
There's safety in numbers. They'll be talking to each other and sounding each other out. If everyone is angry with Trump then they can all stick the knife in now together, not leave one person holding it.
One chap posted that he thinks the NHS staff is something like 60% BAME & gays and they are providing a rubbish service to help the great replacement of white project.
So as usual, a delayed lockdown means a longer lockdown to get back to the same level, killing more people along the way.
What were they thinking?
'It was the internet on your TV' after I had told them that they haven't lived if they've never watched a football match on Ceefax 303.
Explaining dial up internet to them, they genuinely think I am just winding them up.
Must be a very posh area...with gates...
You always knew when there was a wicket, as there was about a three minute pause in the update.
They looked at me weirdly that I paid £45 a month for 200 minutes to landlines and people on the same network as me.
No inclusive texts, and no data, as data didn't exist then.
Calling cross network was 50p a minute, and texts 20p a pop, limited to a 160 characters.
(I do this in the lesson on SI prefixes).
(I know it doesn't matter in the slightest. I must have some fundamental problem with ambiguity.)
On top of that, Wales’ government is about as incompetent as it’s possible to be without every member actually being Gavin Williamson.
So if that graph is accurate it’s a pretty poor performance by your fellow countrymen.
People are complex, who'd have thought it?
amen
Here's a question: do any other PBers Peloton? If so, let me know your username so I can follow you.
(My username is pretty easy to guess.)
Why not time it so that Biden starts giving this speech at middday?
"You plug the phone in here"
"Ok, don't forget the splitter because we have this ancient phone plugged in along with the wireless one in case of a power cut"
"If there's a power cut the router will go off and neither phone will work. But both your mobiles will still work"
"But what if there's a power cut and someone wants to call us?"
"They'll probably call your mobile if you don't answer the landline"
(above several times over several days).
To be fair, Sky should have made it - and the implications - obvious. All there was in sign-up was a question about whether any personal assistance alarms were installed (selecting yes would have got them a POTS line for the power cut issue)
Oh wait....
I was old enough to get the Spectrum 128K +3 though.
My first ever proper computer in 1992, as a callow teenager, had 2 MB of RAM, which I'm fairly certain was top of the range.