I read an article by a US lawyer saying that the senate cannot try a past president only one in office. Just wondered if any lawyers on here have a view.
NAL, but there was at least one case historically where the impeached (Secretary of War William W. Belknap in 1876) did not resign until after the Senate trial had begun. It still went to vote and he was acquited! I think in all other cases of federal impeachment where the impeached person resigned the impeachment process was terminated.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
Indeed, I cannot tell you how much I despise people like this.
Anything o/s in Florida? Isn't there something about not being allowed to 'live' in Mar a Lago? Bit like a holiday caravan park in UK; has to close for month every year. Or something like that.
I have the same sense of optimism this afternoon as I had when Obama was inaugurated. Quite a contrast to the feeling of at least slight peril that accompanied Mr Trump's arrival.
During the nominations I thought that Biden was too old, and generally past it. I'm really quite pleased that I was wrong on that - he's looking positively spry. I like Harris as his VP too.
As I posted last night (to the dismay of @kinabalu - and thanks for the nice words btw) somehow Obama lived up to little of his promise. Somehow Trump managed to be far better (in some areas) than could possibly have been imagined, and not nearly as bad - although bad - as everyone thought in others.
Fingers crossed therefore that we get a strong presidency from Biden. (I can't imagine I'll like his economic policy, but otherwise I'm hopeful)
Is it not almost inevitable that presidents fail to live up to expectations (good or bad)? I certainly think Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama failed to live up not only to my expectations but to their potential.
Slight disagreement on Trump though. He certainly brought some issues into daylight that needed it, but his last 3 months were far worse than I dreamt of.
On the subject of vaccine shortages, I've recently been chatting to some of my former colleagues in the biopharma industry and apparently there's a worldwide shortage of the components that form the 'flow path' of their manufacturing processes that's at least contributing to the supply constraint.
Contrary to popular belief, pharmaceuticals are these days often manufactured and moved around in single-use plastic tubes, filters, valves, etc, rather than the large stainless steel plants of old. These single-use "manifolds" are manufactured in clean rooms, gamma irradiated, and then shipped to the likes of Phizer, AstraZeneca, etc, to be used once and then incinerated.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
ENGLAND ONLY Jabs (vs previous day) total 301,362 (+76%), first 298,373 (+79%) second 2,989 (-20%) second highest day to date.
And the pearl clutchers can relax (a bit).
Absolutely ridiculous term to use for those that are concerned about the rate. You might be relaxed with undershooting, forgive me if I'm not.
Apols if you've taken it personally. You are normally level headed, but obsessing over daily returns is only going to cause stress in something as complex as this roll-out. There are simply too may factors (overall supply of vaccine, allocation, getting patients lined up, phasing moving to the next patient groups, making sure people aren't left behind - already the press is leaping on stories of 'my 95 year odl grandad hasn't been jabbed, but they are doing the over 70's in the next area').
I completely agree with you about such anecdotes – we see as much and worse on here. But the daily numbers do matter. I might try to pull together a spreadsheet to show how the rate changes, it would probably be better than daily commentary, I will give you that.
I'm already adding the daily data into the spreadsheet I generate. And including it in the graphs it produces...
PM me if you want access to the original spreadsheets.
Cheers, happy to view yours then. Does your sheet agree with my calcs that the RR is 370k (ish)?
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
Anything o/s in Florida? Isn't there something about not being allowed to 'live' in Mar a Lago? Bit like a holiday caravan park in UK; has to close for month every year. Or something like that.
Yep. More a zoning violation than a serious lawsuit.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
ENGLAND ONLY Jabs (vs previous day) total 301,362 (+76%), first 298,373 (+79%) second 2,989 (-20%) second highest day to date.
And the pearl clutchers can relax (a bit).
Absolutely ridiculous term to use for those that are concerned about the rate. You might be relaxed with undershooting, forgive me if I'm not.
Apols if you've taken it personally. You are normally level headed, but obsessing over daily returns is only going to cause stress in something as complex as this roll-out. There are simply too may factors (overall supply of vaccine, allocation, getting patients lined up, phasing moving to the next patient groups, making sure people aren't left behind - already the press is leaping on stories of 'my 95 year odl grandad hasn't been jabbed, but they are doing the over 70's in the next area').
I completely agree with you about such anecdotes – we see as much and worse on here. But the daily numbers do matter. I might try to pull together a spreadsheet to show how the rate changes, it would probably be better than daily commentary, I will give you that.
I'm already adding the daily data into the spreadsheet I generate. And including it in the graphs it produces...
PM me if you want access to the original spreadsheets.
Cheers, happy to view yours then. Does your sheet agree with my calcs that the RR is 370k (ish)?
It's not currently calculating for targets - just showing the primary data and some rates.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
Do you mean an express warranty or guarantee (like the ones offered by manufacturers of fridges, TVs etc) or your right generally if they've supplied something to your builder which is faulty?
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
I have the same sense of optimism this afternoon as I had when Obama was inaugurated. Quite a contrast to the feeling of at least slight peril that accompanied Mr Trump's arrival.
During the nominations I thought that Biden was too old, and generally past it. I'm really quite pleased that I was wrong on that - he's looking positively spry. I like Harris as his VP too.
As I posted last night (to the dismay of @kinabalu - and thanks for the nice words btw) somehow Obama lived up to little of his promise. Somehow Trump managed to be far better (in some areas) than could possibly have been imagined, and not nearly as bad - although bad - as everyone thought in others.
Fingers crossed therefore that we get a strong presidency from Biden. (I can't imagine I'll like his economic policy, but otherwise I'm hopeful)
Is it not almost inevitable that presidents fail to live up to expectations (good or bad)? I certainly think Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama failed to live up not only to my expectations but to their potential.
Slight disagreement on Trump though. He certainly brought some issues into daylight that needed it, but his last 3 months were far worse than I dreamt of.
Do you remember the first few weeks after his election though? The longevity of his Presidency was being talked about in days. I found myself wondering which country he'd attack first. He's clearly reverted to expectations recently.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
On the subject of vaccine shortages, I've recently been chatting to some of my former colleagues in the biopharma industry and apparently there's a worldwide shortage of the components that form the 'flow path' of their manufacturing processes that's at least contributing to the supply constraint.
Contrary to popular belief, pharmaceuticals are these days often manufactured and moved around in single-use plastic tubes, filters, valves, etc, rather than the large stainless steel plants of old. These single-use "manifolds" are manufactured in clean rooms, gamma irradiated, and then shipped to the likes of Phizer, AstraZeneca, etc, to be used once and then incinerated.
When people talk about problems with shortages I just see it as matter of time and little delays in bigger picture, with the amount of focus and resource thrown at this.
When you say manufacturing process, is the vaccine sort of grown or alive to some extent like yeast? And a supplementary question if I may, how is it all quality checked, to ensure it’s up to the standard achieved in testing?
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
You hope that the unlucky ones are fairly evenly distributed and don't infect each other enough to get R above 1.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If enough people have been vaccinated/recovered from the disease, and the vaccination/immunity is good enough, then the disease will have too few hosts infect. So even with all the pubs open etc, R will be less than 1.
That is, on average, a person who has the disease will pass it to less than 1 person.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Eventually if the virus was going to infect 2 people and they're both immune then it infects nobody. R becomes much less than 1.
But I don't think its right to say that it is 100% or zilch. For the group who get tested they either got infected or not (so binary yes or no) but that is within a controlled time period. There is nothing to say that more people from the immune group won't get it a week, a month or two months after the clock is stopped. On the good side though, there seems to be ample evidence that the vaccine, even if you are infected, still prevents serious infections or hospitalisations. So you aren't on zilch, your immune system still got compromised with the infection but your body is much better armed to fight off the infection in a safe manner.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
It's why groups of people, living in a community that take against, for example, measles vaccination get quite a lot of it.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
Do you mean an express warranty or guarantee (like the ones offered by manufacturers of fridges, TVs etc) or your right generally if they've supplied something to your builder which is faulty?
The normal stuff a manufacturer offers in addition to your normal consumer rights on good like fridges and TVs eg 5 year manufacturers warranty. The issue of course is you don't have a contract with them.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
They are probably something which works better in practice than in theory. I don't know if there is recent case law on manufacturers denying liability on the basis of privity of contract. I understand that the insurance ombudsman reckons they are within his remit as contracts of insurance, which must be good news, because it's the point of being an ombudsman rather than a court that you can overlook legal fripperies of that sort.
I have the same sense of optimism this afternoon as I had when Obama was inaugurated. Quite a contrast to the feeling of at least slight peril that accompanied Mr Trump's arrival.
During the nominations I thought that Biden was too old, and generally past it. I'm really quite pleased that I was wrong on that - he's looking positively spry. I like Harris as his VP too.
As I posted last night (to the dismay of @kinabalu - and thanks for the nice words btw) somehow Obama lived up to little of his promise. Somehow Trump managed to be far better (in some areas) than could possibly have been imagined, and not nearly as bad - although bad - as everyone thought in others.
Fingers crossed therefore that we get a strong presidency from Biden. (I can't imagine I'll like his economic policy, but otherwise I'm hopeful)
Is it not almost inevitable that presidents fail to live up to expectations (good or bad)? I certainly think Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama failed to live up not only to my expectations but to their potential.
Slight disagreement on Trump though. He certainly brought some issues into daylight that needed it, but his last 3 months were far worse than I dreamt of.
Trump exceeded my expectations too, although I could hardly have set the bar lower.
The other two who exceeded expectations were Reagan and Bush Snr, for whom I started out with a pretty high bar. In fact I would probably rate him the best of the Presidents in my lifetime, i.e., starting with Eisenhower..
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
You hope that the unlucky ones are fairly evenly distributed and don't infect each other enough to get R above 1.
Unless the anti-vaxxers all meet up at the same pubs and clubs...
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are slipping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to "Boris". I’m sorry, PB.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
It's why groups of people, living in a community that take against, for example, measles vaccination get quite a lot of it.
And why Wakefield did so much damage - he reduced herd immunity in populations.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
Why doesn’t it work on some people then, what someone just called unlucky ones, if they had a second jab or a new jab for variant next year, does it still not work on unlucky ones, or might work with future jabs?
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
Now this is where I agree with you. I absolutely despise this sort of stuff. The day the moralising and the witch hunts end can't come soon enough.
Birmingham, Bristol, Bath, London, all going to have a form of congestion charging. I presume we will see all cities adopt this policy, especially as handy way of raising revenue.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
Its also not really true. If you run a trial to see how effective a vaccine is you will have certain criteria. If the measure is becomes symptomatic with disease thats one outcome. But you could also set a different outcome, of how serious ill you get. If in your trial on those given the vaccine, 10% become ill, of which half need hospitalisation, is this better or worse than a vaccine where 40 % become ill, but NONE need hospital? (All compared to the placebo arm). One might get reported as 90 % effective (at stopping illness) rather than 50 %. But the 50% one may be better in the round.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
I’m beginning to think this might work.
Is that you giving me some credit and that, for reigning in the hyperbole?
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are dropping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to him. I’m sorry, PB.
I congratulate you on your comments which are sincere, honest and are much to be admired
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
You hope that the unlucky ones are fairly evenly distributed and don't infect each other enough to get R above 1.
Unless the anti-vaxxers all meet up at the same pubs and clubs...
Then they will all catch it, gain immunity via infection and the virus will fizzle out that way.
Donnie the elephant packed his trunk and said goodbye to the White House Off he went with a trumpety-trump, trump, trump, trump
I am sure you are really feeling sad that a fellow right-wing-useful-idiot-to-Putin-EU hating-Brexit-supporting-populist is no longer in a position of power
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Normally in academia you don't delete your old manuscripts if they were demonstrated to be complete bollocks.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
I’m beginning to think this might work.
Is that you giving me some credit and that, for reigning in the hyperbole?
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are dropping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to him. I’m sorry, PB.
I congratulate you on your comments which are sincere, honest and are much to be admired
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
Thank you, BigG! - I now have warm feeling inside.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
Why doesn’t it work on some people then, what someone just called unlucky ones, if they had a second jab or a new jab for variant next year, does it still not work on unlucky ones, or might work with future jabs?
I don't think anyone knows the complete answer to that question. One of the reasons that polio has not been eradicated in Pakistan is malnourishment of children in the NWFP - their bodies simply do not have the resources to mount an effective immune response to the polio vaccination. Some kids have been injected 5+ times and still no immunity.
I am sure there a range of genetic and environmental issues that contribute to why some people cannot mount adequate immune responses, but not all the reasons are understood yet.
On the subject of vaccine shortages, I've recently been chatting to some of my former colleagues in the biopharma industry and apparently there's a worldwide shortage of the components that form the 'flow path' of their manufacturing processes that's at least contributing to the supply constraint.
Contrary to popular belief, pharmaceuticals are these days often manufactured and moved around in single-use plastic tubes, filters, valves, etc, rather than the large stainless steel plants of old. These single-use "manifolds" are manufactured in clean rooms, gamma irradiated, and then shipped to the likes of Phizer, AstraZeneca, etc, to be used once and then incinerated.
When people talk about problems with shortages I just see it as matter of time and little delays in bigger picture, with the amount of focus and resource thrown at this.
When you say manufacturing process, is the vaccine sort of grown or alive to some extent like yeast? And a supplementary question if I may, how is it all quality checked, to ensure it’s up to the standard achieved in testing?
I was not involved in the growing of vaccines or drugs, but that is only a small part of the process. I was involved in the process of moving products at a constant pressure and temperature through various filtration mediums before being dispensed into vials. This has to be done in a validated way to ensure sterility at the end. This is of course especially important where the product is being injected into the human body.
As I said, often these days a pharmaceutical company will purchase the "flow path" including the sensors themselves, the filters, the pipes (which are actually silicone/plastic tubes), the pump heads, and even the filling needles from a sub-contractor. The sub-contractor will build the custom product in a clean room using validated components, which will then be shipped to a gamma irradiation plant (there's not too many of these around), for it then to be shipped to the end customer - your Phizers, Sanofis, AstraZenecas etc.
You can't simply build a new factory or even a production line to make these components. They have to have extensive testing to ensure the manufacturing process doesn't introduce materials or qualities into the plastics that will then leach into the pharmaceutical products themselves. It was a world of pain every time a manufacturer of something as small as an o-ring seal changed their process in a tiny, tiny way.
Watching Adam Boulton on Sky reminds you of the quality of the BBC. We're so used to their professionalism we take it for granted. Boulton hasn't even taken the trouble to learn the names of the dignitaries. It should be lesson one. Less time in the bar more time on your homework.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
They are probably something which works better in practice than in theory. I don't know if there is recent case law on manufacturers denying liability on the basis of privity of contract. I understand that the insurance ombudsman reckons they are within his remit as contracts of insurance, which must be good news, because it's the point of being an ombudsman rather than a court that you can overlook legal fripperies of that sort.
I'm pretty good with dealing with suppliers. I normally go to the CEO if I'm not getting joy and threaten with small claims court and reputational damage and of course I can use Section 75 and chargeback normally, but I have a situation where I can't go back to my builder (to long to explain), paid by bank transfer and the manufacturer are making a warranty claim on the goods too difficult. The good have a 5 year warranty thrown in with the product. Unfortunately a threat of small claims court doesn't work because they know their law and know I can only do that direct with my builder.
I can find nothing about the legal standing of manufacturers warranties that simply come with the product for free.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
She's not an expert (in this).
Periodic reminder that medically qualified people are not necessarily qualified to pontificate on epidemiology - these are different fields. Some may have research/expertise in this area, but many will not.
Hell, I'm not qualified to pontificate on this pandemic* and I'm an epidemiologist.
*not saying it's going to stop me, just don't listen to me
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are slipping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to "Boris". I’m sorry, PB.
I guess on the STD metaphor beloved of PBers, Trump was-nose-fall-off, general pareses syphilis while BJ is herpes, still an unpleasant, suppurating sore on your privates but you can live with it.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Normally in academia you don't delete your old manuscripts if they were demonstrated to be complete bollocks.
If research is shown to be complete b*llocks that is one thing. Having show trials of those who turned out to be wrong is something completely different and utterly nauseating.
Watching Adam Boulton on Sky reminds you of the quality of the BBC. We're so used to their professionalism we take it for granted. Boulton hasn't even taken the trouble to learn the names of the dignitaries. It should be lesson one. Less time in the bar more time on your homework.
BBC professionalism that they get the pandemic stats wrong time and time again? Most recently claiming UK vaccinations over the weekend were x, not realising for ages that Scotland and Wales aren't reporting on Saturday and Sunday....and even after the live web coverage worked it out, they still got it wrong on the news bulletins.
Ed Conway on Sky is probably the only one that has managed to finally get his head around how to look at the numbers properly, and it still took him 6 months.
I'm quite confident now that the vaccination numbers are two days in arrears with yesterday's figure relating to Sunday rather than Monday. Today's figures will be Monday's returns and the continuation of the ramp up process so tomorrow's should add another 50-70k to this.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
It's why groups of people, living in a community that take against, for example, measles vaccination get quite a lot of it.
And why Wakefield did so much damage - he reduced herd immunity in populations.
He did get to shack up with Elle MacPerson though... I mean what's a few people getting ill, or dying between anti-vax idiots?
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Normally in academia you don't delete your old manuscripts if they were demonstrated to be complete bollocks.
If research is shown to be complete b*llocks that is one thing. Having show trials of those who turned out to be wrong is something completely different and utterly nauseating.
How exactly is it a show trial? It's just a reaction to someone deleting their previous utterances on the subject which have been shown to be completely wrong.
Watching Adam Boulton on Sky reminds you of the quality of the BBC. We're so used to their professionalism we take it for granted. Boulton hasn't even taken the trouble to learn the names of the dignitaries. It should be lesson one. Less time in the bar more time on your homework.
I'm watching CNN, and I could have written this tweet.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
Why doesn’t it work on some people then, what someone just called unlucky ones, if they had a second jab or a new jab for variant next year, does it still not work on unlucky ones, or might work with future jabs?
If you're interested, here is an overview of vaccine non-responders:
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Normally in academia you don't delete your old manuscripts if they were demonstrated to be complete bollocks.
If research is shown to be complete b*llocks that is one thing. Having show trials of those who turned out to be wrong is something completely different and utterly nauseating.
I would think that too if I had just recommended buying bitcoin before it fell 25% overnight, and endorsed Tobes's underfilled ICU bed theory.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
Why doesn’t it work on some people then, what someone just called unlucky ones, if they had a second jab or a new jab for variant next year, does it still not work on unlucky ones, or might work with future jabs?
I don't think anyone knows the complete answer to that question. One of the reasons that polio has not been eradicated in Pakistan is malnourishment of children in the NWFP - their bodies simply do not have the resources to mount an effective immune response to the polio vaccination. Some kids have been injected 5+ times and still no immunity.
I am sure there a range of genetic and environmental issues that contribute to why some people cannot mount adequate immune responses, but not all the reasons are understood yet.
I’m hypothetisizing again, but the unlucky ones could be 1) can’t have vaccine for medical reason 2) have weak immune system?
So old people’s immune systems are not supposed to be great? A lot of the unlucky ones could be in old age groups?
Should everyone work on their immune system then ahead of vaccines, to give vaccines best chance of succeeding? Like sleep, eat fruit and veg and sun etc
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Really? What motive could you possibly have to wish to unseat an MP dedicated to exposing dangerous, unscientific rubbish?
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
You hope that the unlucky ones are fairly evenly distributed and don't infect each other enough to get R above 1.
Unless the anti-vaxxers all meet up at the same pubs and clubs...
Indeed, but I would call those something other than unlucky.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
They are probably something which works better in practice than in theory. I don't know if there is recent case law on manufacturers denying liability on the basis of privity of contract. I understand that the insurance ombudsman reckons they are within his remit as contracts of insurance, which must be good news, because it's the point of being an ombudsman rather than a court that you can overlook legal fripperies of that sort.
I'm pretty good with dealing with suppliers. I normally go to the CEO if I'm not getting joy and threaten with small claims court and reputational damage and of course I can use Section 75 and chargeback normally, but I have a situation where I can't go back to my builder (to long to explain), paid by bank transfer and the manufacturer are making a warranty claim on the goods too difficult. The good have a 5 year warranty thrown in with the product. Unfortunately a threat of small claims court doesn't work because they know their law and know I can only do that direct with my builder.
I can find nothing about the legal standing of manufacturers warranties that simply come with the product for free.
So try the ombudsman. The traditional and well-established view is that *as a matter of strict law* warranties are unenforceable. The ombudsman can overlook that if he wants to. Costs nothing.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
It's why groups of people, living in a community that take against, for example, measles vaccination get quite a lot of it.
And why Wakefield did so much damage - he reduced herd immunity in populations.
He did get to shack up with Elle MacPerson though... I mean what's a few people getting ill, or dying between anti-vax idiots?
How he managed to pull Elle is even bigger mystery than his research....
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
The virus runs out of people to infect.
Herd immunity is reached the same way - by a combination of immunity acquired through vaccination and through exposure to the disease.
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
Why doesn’t it work on some people then, what someone just called unlucky ones, if they had a second jab or a new jab for variant next year, does it still not work on unlucky ones, or might work with future jabs?
I don't think anyone knows the complete answer to that question. One of the reasons that polio has not been eradicated in Pakistan is malnourishment of children in the NWFP - their bodies simply do not have the resources to mount an effective immune response to the polio vaccination. Some kids have been injected 5+ times and still no immunity.
I am sure there a range of genetic and environmental issues that contribute to why some people cannot mount adequate immune responses, but not all the reasons are understood yet.
I’m hypothetisizing again, but the unlucky ones could be 1) can’t have vaccine for medical reason 2) have weak immune system?
So old people’s immune systems are not supposed to be great? A lot of the unlucky ones could be in old age groups?
Should everyone work on their immune system then ahead of vaccines, to give vaccines best chance of succeeding? Like sleep, eat fruit and veg and sun etc
Yes eating, exercising and sleeping well is a good idea to give yourself the best chance with the vaccines.
Yes, seen it quite frequently circling round. Sees to be based at Finningley rather than Letsby Avenue, Sheffield (yes, you read that right) with the chopper.
Probably cheaper to run than a helicopter and with stabilised cameras it will be no worse at following the action.
I have to write something for Trump’s exit. No choice. No choice.
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are dropping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to him. I’m sorry, PB.
I congratulate you on your comments which are sincere, honest and are much to be admired
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
Thank you, BigG! - I now have warm feeling inside.
You'll need to keep quiet about how keen you are on Drakeford then, or......
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
Oh come on; Mr G's usually polite, if a little stuffy sometimes. Even when he gets provoked.
But one jab doesn’t create immunity in that person. So where does the herd immunity come from?
After vaccination Everybody can still carry COVID about and give it to everyone, after vaccination old, frail or vulnerable are still going to get very ill and die. They still can’t hug their family. Care homes will still be in difficult place.
That’s not herd immunity back to normal is it?
Instead of word immunity use protection, instead of back to normal say better place?
The trial groups are all in contact with the outside (unvaccinated) world. Once everyone is vaccinated, well everyone has protection - and the people they can catch it from have protection so are less likely to transmit to people that themselves have protection. It's the cumulative effect of individual protection that leads to immunity of the population.
Okay. That’s how all vaccines work - There’s no vaccine that gives 100% immunity? But the population overall is in better place, and we call it herd immunity?
Is still think the word immunity is causing an expectation problem. To say to someone you have 80% immunity is saying 80% protection but not immune. Isn’t it?
I don't think vaccines work quite like that. AIUI, with most vaccines, as an individual you are either almost 100% immune, or you are 0% immune. The 80% figure is because 8 out of 10 people get the 100% immunity, whilst the other 2 out of ten get 0%.
I’ll put my hand up and admit I didn’t realise it worked like that. 8 out of ten full immunity 2 out of 10 zilch. How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
If about 80% of people are immune from either vaccination or from having already had it, the virus will die out because it doesn't have enough people to spread to, assuming that the remaining 20% are evenly spread out across the country. If they were concentrated in a particular area you could still still have an outbreak in that area.
And then the outbreak would peter out.
It's why groups of people, living in a community that take against, for example, measles vaccination get quite a lot of it.
Does make me wonder about schools, given that children will presumably not get vaccinated (none in trials so no safety data?). Of course, if enough in the population are vaccinated then the incidence will tend to zero anyway, but in the short term one infected child in a school could potentially infect many others. Low risk, in these groups of course, as far as we know, but I wonder whether that will lead to continued precautions in schools until community incidence is very low.
If, say, schools did reopen mid-Feb then the infection risks would likely be very similar to several points last year, albeit much lower risk of severe cases in vaccinated older people in contact with children.
Donnie the elephant packed his trunk and said goodbye to the White House Off he went with a trumpety-trump, trump, trump, trump
Very good indeed. Have you had that one on the back burner for 4 years? Good job he didn't get a second term or you would have exploded waiting.
I wish I could claim credit, but I stole it from a friend. Amused me though, so I thought I'd share it.
The good thing is seeing this, with the dignity of everyone involved including the likes of George W Bush is just how Presidential this whole ceremony is.
"Presidential" is not a word we've had much opportunity to use.
I can respect those I disagree with, there was a lot about GWB I disagreed with (his religious right pandering and blocking of scientific research into stem cells etc was worst bit for me) but Trump was never a "President". He was an egotist, a narcissist and good riddance.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Really? What motive could you possibly have to wish to unseat an MP dedicated to exposing dangerous, unscientific rubbish?
In the same way as the Spanish inquisition was dedicated to exposing dangerous, uncatholic heretics?
I'm quite confident now that the vaccination numbers are two days in arrears with yesterday's figure relating to Sunday rather than Monday. Today's figures will be Monday's returns and the continuation of the ramp up process so tomorrow's should add another 50-70k to this.
You could be right. If so, that could be quite encouraging. We shall see.
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
Oh come on; Mr G's usually polite, if a little stuffy sometimes. Even when he gets provoked.
Yes, but the point about his use of "Brexit Derangement Syndrome," followed by this, is a valid one.
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I would love to think he has but I fear he is not going to go away
The world would be a better place if he just went away permanently
Your homework for today is to have a think about the damage you can do by voting for dishonest populist politicians.
I could make a caustic comment but today is a day for healing divisions
Doing your homework tomorrow is OK with me
Does Big G have a hungry dog?
No, it is Big G himself that is barking.
Charming and if you knew how sensitive that is in my family at present you may consider joking about serious mental health issues unwise
Pity that you use the old "derangement" motif yourself to refer to other people. Without that your pity-me post might land somewhere other than on your own toe.
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
I have never used that language and you are just unpleasant
You often talked about Brexit Derangement Syndrome.
I think folk (even experts) can be given a pass for what they said in the first few months of the pandemic since let's face it we were all at sea, but she was posting this guff in October & November. Of course people were also firing off big old Declarations in October..
There is something extremely unpleasant about O'Brien's witch hunt 'heretic!' phraseology here. Medical opinion has differed widely on all aspects of the pandemic for the duration of it, and still does so to this day.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Really? What motive could you possibly have to wish to unseat an MP dedicated to exposing dangerous, unscientific rubbish?
In the same way as the Spanish inquisition was dedicated to exposing dangerous, uncatholic heretics?
On the subject of vaccine shortages, I've recently been chatting to some of my former colleagues in the biopharma industry and apparently there's a worldwide shortage of the components that form the 'flow path' of their manufacturing processes that's at least contributing to the supply constraint.
Contrary to popular belief, pharmaceuticals are these days often manufactured and moved around in single-use plastic tubes, filters, valves, etc, rather than the large stainless steel plants of old. These single-use "manifolds" are manufactured in clean rooms, gamma irradiated, and then shipped to the likes of Phizer, AstraZeneca, etc, to be used once and then incinerated.
When people talk about problems with shortages I just see it as matter of time and little delays in bigger picture, with the amount of focus and resource thrown at this.
When you say manufacturing process, is the vaccine sort of grown or alive to some extent like yeast? And a supplementary question if I may, how is it all quality checked, to ensure it’s up to the standard achieved in testing?
It's worth saying that little delays may result in further delays elsewhere down the production path resulting in minor issues compounding into far bigger ones later.
Comments
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1351872267408596992?s=20
Slight disagreement on Trump though. He certainly brought some issues into daylight that needed it, but his last 3 months were far worse than I dreamt of.
Contrary to popular belief, pharmaceuticals are these days often manufactured and moved around in single-use plastic tubes, filters, valves, etc, rather than the large stainless steel plants of old. These single-use "manifolds" are manufactured in clean rooms, gamma irradiated, and then shipped to the likes of Phizer, AstraZeneca, etc, to be used once and then incinerated.
How’s a herd immunity achieved under this science then?
What are your rights re a product Warranty or Guarantee. As you don't have a contract with the manufacturer how can you enforce it if they renege on their T&C.
Not normally an issue as you normally have a reseller to go to and if not them a Section 75 or chargeback, but with someone like a builder who goes bust and buys the stuff directly and you pay by transfer you are reliant on warranty.
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/25/950314954/can-trump-live-at-mar-a-lago
When you say manufacturing process, is the vaccine sort of grown or alive to some extent like yeast?
And a supplementary question if I may, how is it all quality checked, to ensure it’s up to the standard achieved in testing?
That is, on average, a person who has the disease will pass it to less than 1 person.
So it will die out.
But I don't think its right to say that it is 100% or zilch. For the group who get tested they either got infected or not (so binary yes or no) but that is within a controlled time period. There is nothing to say that more people from the immune group won't get it a week, a month or two months after the clock is stopped. On the good side though, there seems to be ample evidence that the vaccine, even if you are infected, still prevents serious infections or hospitalisations. So you aren't on zilch, your immune system still got compromised with the infection but your body is much better armed to fight off the infection in a safe manner.
He's the one MP I would most like Reform to run a candidate against, when the time comes.
Won't that be approximately this date in 2029?
herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0
So if R0 is 2.8, herd immunity is acquired when 64% of the population has acquired immunity either by effective vaccination or by exposure resulting in a full immune response. If only 80% of those vaccinated acquire immunity, you either have to rely on vaccinating more people, or on more people acquiring immunity via infection.
PS In this example, if you were to rely solely on vaccination with a vaccine that gives 80% effective response, you'd have to vaccinate 80% of the population to get to the 64%
The other two who exceeded expectations were Reagan and Bush Snr, for whom I started out with a pretty high bar. In fact I would probably rate him the best of the Presidents in my lifetime, i.e., starting with Eisenhower..
And not to make it about me but I can’t help my overriding feeling being one of enormous pride in myself. I had this guy sussed and properly evaluated from the start. That took perception – to see the truth – and also standards below which I refused to fall. So I never, throughout this sorry episode, lost my sense of outrage and depression, tinged with unreality, about such an individual being the President of the United States. I never sought to come to terms with it. Never shrugged him off as just a joke. Never went crawling back through the records and character of previous Presidents in order to phony up a case that he was nothing to lose your shit about. Never bent over backwards to find some sort of valid respectable “left behind by globalization bla bla” reason for his election. No. I stuck to my initial assessment. Orange Man Bad. Simple, correct, complete. This was much and often derided as “Trump Derangement Syndrome” but now the whole of the sane world has come around to it. Ah bisto.
But I have some disturbing news to share too. It’s about my relationship with another political leader. Boris Johnson. He is not Britain Trump. Not even close as regards absurdity and malignancy. However, he is amoral, shallow, glib, immature, deceitful, and not really fit for office. About three years ago, chatting to my wife, I said that if Boris Johnson ever became PM, we should emigrate, and I was 100% serious. Yet he has and we haven’t. Not because my wife refuses but because I no longer want to. I have lost my negative passion for Johnson. What I’m patting myself on the back for, viz Trump, is I’m afraid exactly what has happened with Johnson. I can’t stand the bloke, obvs, or much of his politics, but the fact of him as PM is not driving me each & every day into a pit of rage and despair. I’m awfully ashamed of this, it shows my standards are slipping, but I felt I had to make the confession. I’ve got used to "Boris". I’m sorry, PB.
Hope springs eternal I guess.
Off he went with a trumpety-trump, trump, trump, trump
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-birmingham-55722084
Birmingham, Bristol, Bath, London, all going to have a form of congestion charging. I presume we will see all cities adopt this policy, especially as handy way of raising revenue.
Its complicated stuff.
Indeed I can even say I agree with virtually all of it
I am sure there a range of genetic and environmental issues that contribute to why some people cannot mount adequate immune responses, but not all the reasons are understood yet.
As I said, often these days a pharmaceutical company will purchase the "flow path" including the sensors themselves, the filters, the pipes (which are actually silicone/plastic tubes), the pump heads, and even the filling needles from a sub-contractor. The sub-contractor will build the custom product in a clean room using validated components, which will then be shipped to a gamma irradiation plant (there's not too many of these around), for it then to be shipped to the end customer - your Phizers, Sanofis, AstraZenecas etc.
You can't simply build a new factory or even a production line to make these components. They have to have extensive testing to ensure the manufacturing process doesn't introduce materials or qualities into the plastics that will then leach into the pharmaceutical products themselves. It was a world of pain every time a manufacturer of something as small as an o-ring seal changed their process in a tiny, tiny way.
I can find nothing about the legal standing of manufacturers warranties that simply come with the product for free.
Periodic reminder that medically qualified people are not necessarily qualified to pontificate on epidemiology - these are different fields. Some may have research/expertise in this area, but many will not.
Hell, I'm not qualified to pontificate on this pandemic* and I'm an epidemiologist.
*not saying it's going to stop me, just don't listen to me
https://www.flightradar24.com/UKP153/269ed804
Ed Conway on Sky is probably the only one that has managed to finally get his head around how to look at the numbers properly, and it still took him 6 months.
https://twitter.com/sarfrazmanzoor/status/1351920166104424450
https://cmr.asm.org/content/32/2/e00084-18
So old people’s immune systems are not supposed to be great? A lot of the unlucky ones could be in old age groups?
Should everyone work on their immune system then ahead of vaccines, to give vaccines best chance of succeeding? Like sleep, eat fruit and veg and sun etc
Turns out you're just another hypocrite. Who knew?
And I agree with Roger, Adam Bolton is a boring wind bag
Probably cheaper to run than a helicopter and with stabilised cameras it will be no worse at following the action.
No Thomas, Breyer or Alito. So all 3 Trump appointees present.
Breyer retirement imminent?
If, say, schools did reopen mid-Feb then the infection risks would likely be very similar to several points last year, albeit much lower risk of severe cases in vaccinated older people in contact with children.
But one other usually does the Vice.
The good thing is seeing this, with the dignity of everyone involved including the likes of George W Bush is just how Presidential this whole ceremony is.
"Presidential" is not a word we've had much opportunity to use.
I can respect those I disagree with, there was a lot about GWB I disagreed with (his religious right pandering and blocking of scientific research into stem cells etc was worst bit for me) but Trump was never a "President". He was an egotist, a narcissist and good riddance.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1351903819765047297?s=20