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Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Alistair's interesting and provocative thread perhaps deserves some on topic comments. I'd say it might be too gloomy on the prospects for influence - only time will tell, and something so vague is impossible to measure anyway.

    Likewise the institutional architecture point is too vague to score - it could mean almost anything, and clearly wouldn't happen overnight anyway.

    On the deadline point, I don't think the slippage of a few months in the middle of a pandemic matters much. I'd give that more like 6/10.

    Other than that, I mostly agree with the scores given. Which gives the manifesto, by my count, a score of 29/40 - 72% not perfect, but a damn sight more than most manifestos get.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Scott_xP said:
    Given they were easily able to answer whether or not the trip was legal, I think the answer to that question is no.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Hemingway claimed "Baby shoes for sale. Never worn' was his most complete story

    I think Yahoo Finance has just given him some competition. 'Brexit. All Pain No Gain'

    I can see why your career remained mired in advertising, rather than maturing into the more narrative-driven genre of actual movies
    Hemmingway on the other hand, did ok. :wink:
    Talking of failed story-telling, the BBC's The Serpent is a sad waste of money. Great actors, great production values, great locations (Bangkok in the 1970s!) and, potentially, a great theme: a serial killer slaying hippies, based on a very true story.

    But jeez they fecked it up. Constant flashbacks, maze-like narration, shifting perspectives, and not in a clever way, just confusing. And terrible accents. Dutch, Thai, French Quebecois, Geordie-Russian.

    Another worrying sign that TV's Golden Age may be ending? Or just the BBC messing things up as normal? Bridgerton was better, FFS
    I can't remember if it was the Guardian or the Indy that did a piece on best telly to look forward to in 2021....the list looked decidedly shit.
    To be fair, it is bloody hard to make good TV (or movies, music, drama, opera, dance) in the era of Covid. I fear we are doomed to a few years of mediocrity, whatever.

    Sad.

    On the upside, flint knappers, poets, knitters and novelists will prosper. The creations of the more lonely artist.
    Comedy too. Comedians have adapted to clubs being closed with rooftop shows, drive-in movie theatre shows and lots of funny podcasts. Kept many of us sane for the past twelve months.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with that line, is that invites the response.

    "Well, Mr President, you leave me no choice. I wish to be remembered as a patriot and that means supporting your impeachment."
    I’m glad he didn’t break the law, but it’s kind of hard to call somebody courageous for choosing not to help overthrow our democratic system of government,” said Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey. “He’s got to understand that the man he’s been working for and defending loyally is almost single-handedly responsible for creating a movement in this country that wants to hang Mike Pence.”
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    From the same article, it sounds like Trump treated Pence like s**t:

    He arrived in the West Wing each morning, received an update about when the president was coming down from the residence and then simply stationed himself in the Oval Office for most of the day. He was almost never formally invited to anything and his name was rarely on official meeting manifests. But he was almost always around.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,185

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    Well, hang on a minute. That’s a false dichotomy. This government is full of expert liars.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,887
    ydoethur said:

    Well, hang on a minute. That’s a false dichotomy. This government is full of expert liars.

    The tragedy is that they are not expert liars. They are really, really bad at it.

    But it works...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
  • Options
    RobD said:
    What does it matter? "Patriots" thought Parker was a safe space to practice fascism and have suddenly discovered that everything they have posted including all the personal data is there for their friends in the FBI to read.

    As the fallout from last week's coup intensifies, these "patriots" are going to find that they have written the prosecution case for them. At least this is Good News for Republican politicians. All these bad guys who need to go to jail. Fantastic opportunity for one of their donors to offer up bungs for a nice for profit supermax to house them in,
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,192
    edited January 2021
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
    Because the fishermen point to the facts and say they can catch less fiah and "there is no border in the Irish Sea" lying wazzocks spout rhetoric about defeating the forriners to claim they can catch more fish.

    The facts aren't in dispute. The government are either ignorant, or lying, or as usual probably both. Considering how pro-Brexit the fishing industry is they would be celebrating being able to catch more fish were it true - that was their aim all along. That they can point to evidential facts demonstrating the opposite is true isn't something that can be batted away.

    Unless of course the purpose is to defend the government against the facts.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,887
    RobD said:

    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?

    The accord also means quota swapping -- where rights to species are swapped between boats -- may no longer be possible for U.K. fleets. That means the amount of cod they can catch in the North Sea will fall to 57%, from 63.5%, the Scottish government said.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,185
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Well, hang on a minute. That’s a false dichotomy. This government is full of expert liars.

    The tragedy is that they are not expert liars. They are really, really bad at it.

    But it works...
    They’ve convinced people they’re in charge. What more proof do you need that they’re expert liars?

    Honestly, they are living disproof of the Illuminati. The illuminati would be more competent than this.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,283
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:
    What does it matter? "Patriots" thought Parker was a safe space to practice fascism and have suddenly discovered that everything they have posted including all the personal data is there for their friends in the FBI to read.

    As the fallout from last week's coup intensifies, these "patriots" are going to find that they have written the prosecution case for them. At least this is Good News for Republican politicians. All these bad guys who need to go to jail. Fantastic opportunity for one of their donors to offer up bungs for a nice for profit supermax to house them in,
    What does it matter? I thought having things reported accurately was quite important.
  • Options
    On food parcel-gate. ManCock says Chartwells have apologised and rightly so. Perhaps Philip would like to set him straight...?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/joepike/status/1349256391148638209
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?

    The accord also means quota swapping -- where rights to species are swapped between boats -- may no longer be possible for U.K. fleets. That means the amount of cod they can catch in the North Sea will fall to 57%, from 63.5%, the Scottish government said.
    There's that "may" again.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
    Because the fishermen point to the facts and say they can catch less fiah and "there is no border in the Irish Sea" lying wazzocks spout rhetoric about defeating the forriners to claim they can catch more fish.

    The facts aren't in dispute. The government are either ignorant, or lying, or as usual probably both. Considering how pro-Brexit the fishing industry is they would be celebrating being able to catch more fish were it true - that was their aim all along. That they can point to evidential facts demonstrating the opposite is true isn't something that can be batted away.

    Unless of course the purpose is to defend the government against the facts.
    The facts are in dispute, otherwise the word "may" wouldn't have appeared in the headline!
  • Options

    On food parcel-gate. ManCock says Chartwells have apologised and rightly so. Perhaps Philip would like to set him straight...?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/joepike/status/1349256391148638209

    And here is the mea culpa email from Chartwells themselves

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1349114835754246150
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    edited January 2021
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    What's that got to do with the slowness of their rollout? The rates there not hugely down from the UK number.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
    Because the fishermen point to the facts and say they can catch less fiah and "there is no border in the Irish Sea" lying wazzocks spout rhetoric about defeating the forriners to claim they can catch more fish.

    The facts aren't in dispute. The government are either ignorant, or lying, or as usual probably both. Considering how pro-Brexit the fishing industry is they would be celebrating being able to catch more fish were it true - that was their aim all along. That they can point to evidential facts demonstrating the opposite is true isn't something that can be batted away.

    Unless of course the purpose is to defend the government against the facts.
    The facts are in dispute, otherwise the word "may" wouldn't have appeared in the headline!
    There is a dispute. In one corner we have the evidence from the fishing fleets looking at the exact numbers. In the other corner we have rhetoric from the government which quotes no numbers.

    The facts aren't in dispute. Just the sanity of insisting that the fishing industry may not know their own industry and the people sacked for lying may know more about it than they do.

    It's like listening to GOP politicians. "Allegations of voter fraud have been made! These must be investigated!" Yes. Allegations. Made by you. That are baseless. And have been disproved.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,887
    Monday. No clamour for 24 hour vaccinations.

    Wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1349258769277071360
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
    Because the fishermen point to the facts and say they can catch less fiah and "there is no border in the Irish Sea" lying wazzocks spout rhetoric about defeating the forriners to claim they can catch more fish.

    The facts aren't in dispute. The government are either ignorant, or lying, or as usual probably both. Considering how pro-Brexit the fishing industry is they would be celebrating being able to catch more fish were it true - that was their aim all along. That they can point to evidential facts demonstrating the opposite is true isn't something that can be batted away.

    Unless of course the purpose is to defend the government against the facts.
    The facts are in dispute, otherwise the word "may" wouldn't have appeared in the headline!
    There is a dispute. In one corner we have the evidence from the fishing fleets looking at the exact numbers. In the other corner we have rhetoric from the government which quotes no numbers.

    The facts aren't in dispute. Just the sanity of insisting that the fishing industry may not know their own industry and the people sacked for lying may know more about it than they do.

    It's like listening to GOP politicians. "Allegations of voter fraud have been made! These must be investigated!" Yes. Allegations. Made by you. That are baseless. And have been disproved.
    I've not made any allegations? I'm saying that the numbers are in the agreement which can be checked to see whether or not this will actually happen. The allegation has been made in the article. If it was a fact they would have used the word "will" and not "may".
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,185

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
    Because the fishermen point to the facts and say they can catch less fiah and "there is no border in the Irish Sea" lying wazzocks spout rhetoric about defeating the forriners to claim they can catch more fish.

    The facts aren't in dispute. The government are either ignorant, or lying, or as usual probably both. Considering how pro-Brexit the fishing industry is they would be celebrating being able to catch more fish were it true - that was their aim all along. That they can point to evidential facts demonstrating the opposite is true isn't something that can be batted away.

    Unless of course the purpose is to defend the government against the facts.
    The facts are in dispute, otherwise the word "may" wouldn't have appeared in the headline!
    There is a dispute. In one corner we have the evidence from the fishing fleets looking at the exact numbers. In the other corner we have rhetoric from the government which quotes no numbers.

    The facts aren't in dispute. Just the sanity of insisting that the fishing industry may not know their own industry and the people sacked for lying may know more about it than they do.

    It's like listening to GOP politicians. "Allegations of voter fraud have been made! These must be investigated!" Yes. Allegations. Made by you. That are baseless. And have been disproved.
    Well, actually, again that’s not quite correct. There have been plenty of allegations of voter suppression, intimidation, restriction of voting sites, attempts to invalidate lawful ballots and threats made to election officials to falsify results, all of which stack up pretty well.

    The snag from the Republican point of view is that these anti democratic acts were performed by, er, the Republicans.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Hopefully those stats bode well for the U.K. vaccine uptake.
  • Options
    The fishing numbers "argument" is the same as all the other previous and indeed future Brexit rows. Who knows most about their industry. The people who do it for a living all day every day? Or politicians who are busy embarrassing themselves by telling other baseless demonstrable lies?

    The fishing industry was peo-Brexit. Supported both the leaving of the CFP and with it the Tories. They are not an obvious camp to be making up attack stories. This is their very existence and they won. So when a fishing captain in Peterhead looks at the new numbers and says "I can catch less Cod now than I could before" he will know more about it than politicians in London who don't know where Peterhead is. Again, fisherman on the ground with numbers, vs politician quoting hot air.

    Why are people insisting the politician is right and that we should ignore these obviously politically biased moaners attacking the poor government?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?
    Because the fishermen point to the facts and say they can catch less fiah and "there is no border in the Irish Sea" lying wazzocks spout rhetoric about defeating the forriners to claim they can catch more fish.

    The facts aren't in dispute. The government are either ignorant, or lying, or as usual probably both. Considering how pro-Brexit the fishing industry is they would be celebrating being able to catch more fish were it true - that was their aim all along. That they can point to evidential facts demonstrating the opposite is true isn't something that can be batted away.

    Unless of course the purpose is to defend the government against the facts.
    The facts are in dispute, otherwise the word "may" wouldn't have appeared in the headline!
    There is a dispute. In one corner we have the evidence from the fishing fleets looking at the exact numbers. In the other corner we have rhetoric from the government which quotes no numbers.

    The facts aren't in dispute. Just the sanity of insisting that the fishing industry may not know their own industry and the people sacked for lying may know more about it than they do.

    It's like listening to GOP politicians. "Allegations of voter fraud have been made! These must be investigated!" Yes. Allegations. Made by you. That are baseless. And have been disproved.
    I've not made any allegations? I'm saying that the numbers are in the agreement which can be checked to see whether or not this will actually happen. The allegation has been made in the article. If it was a fact they would have used the word "will" and not "may".
    The fishermen have checked the facts. They know what they can catch. The politicians don't know the facts. They keep coming in the media saying stupid things like there is no border in the Irish Sea. The word "may" is being used because it is in dispute. Either the fishermen are right. Or Boris Johnson is right.

    Question. Having voted for Brexit and won, what is the motivation for the fishermen to lie?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    What's that got to do with the slowness of their rollout? The rates there not hugely down from the UK number.
    Morning, everyone. I suggest the levels are loosely related to the degree of centralisation of the health service. Where does one have to pay for the vaccine.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    BBC: Gavin Williamson: Machiavelli or Private Pike?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55640335

    (don't spend too long over it!)
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    While reading the often excellent Marina Hyde I came across this which you might call the long arm of Barnard Castle. It was written a couple of weeks ago but if anyone missed it and they're interested in where public opinion went last year it's a must read

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/30/2020-boris-johnson-public-trust-goodwill-barnard-castle
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,341
    Scott_xP said:

    Monday. No clamour for 24 hour vaccinations.

    Wednesday...

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1349258769277071360

    My father in laws new fire surround is being delivered.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,185
    IanB2 said:

    BBC: Gavin Williamson: Machiavelli or Private Pike?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55640335

    (don't spend too long over it!)

    A bit unfair to Private Pike. Ian Lavender said of him 'I played as sheltered and naive, but never an idiot.'
  • Options

    On food parcel-gate. ManCock says Chartwells have apologised and rightly so. Perhaps Philip would like to set him straight...?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/joepike/status/1349256391148638209

    And here is the mea culpa email from Chartwells themselves

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1349114835754246150
    In America this gets dealt with as fraud. In the UK they get told try and do better, and they will probably go back to the fraud in a couple of months time. Disgraceful, the directors should be interviewed by the police.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?

    The accord also means quota swapping -- where rights to species are swapped between boats -- may no longer be possible for U.K. fleets. That means the amount of cod they can catch in the North Sea will fall to 57%, from 63.5%, the Scottish government said.
    In this case the story is definitely someone just creating stuff for a headline.

    This is not about numbers of fish as in the other case, it is about what has been agreed between the EU and UK

    Quota swapping has always been managed and controlled. It was the same in the CAP and is planned to be the same under the new arrangements with a new joint committee. The Agreement makes it clear that the committee will be responsible for certifying quota swaps and also monitoring all the other agreements covering fishing. It is a fundamental part of the whole process. It has not yet been convened but quota swaps for this coming year are already decided. So the claim that such swaps may no longer be possible runs in direct contravention to the Agreement.

    Oh and before RP starts off on one about who knows best, note it is not the fishermen making the claims about quota swaps in this article, it is that well known Brexit supporting body the Scottish government.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    What's that got to do with the slowness of their rollout? The rates there not hugely down from the UK number.
    The main factor of the slowness in the roll out is supply. Pfizer and Moderna are only available in limited numbers, the AZN is not licensed in the EU*. The decentralised nature of health care in most of Europe and a certain amount of antivaxxing doesn't help.

    *time will tell soon enough from the British experiment whether this is just red tape or justified scepticism over efficacy in the at risk group of the elderly.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    What's that got to do with the slowness of their rollout? The rates there not hugely down from the UK number.
    The main factor of the slowness in the roll out is supply. Pfizer and Moderna are only available in limited numbers, the AZN is not licensed in the EU*. The decentralised nature of health care in most of Europe and a certain amount of antivaxxing doesn't help.

    *time will tell soon enough from the British experiment whether this is just red tape or justified scepticism over efficacy in the at risk group of the elderly.
    At the moment I would argue it's 99% due to supply. The other factors are negligible.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Hopefully those stats bode well for the U.K. vaccine uptake.
    Yes, I think it is the existing health infrastructure In primary care that will benefit the vaccination scheme in the UK. Government is best served by keeping out of their way.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    R4 More or Less at 9am examines the effectiveness of a single dose of vaccine
  • Options



    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?

    The accord also means quota swapping -- where rights to species are swapped between boats -- may no longer be possible for U.K. fleets. That means the amount of cod they can catch in the North Sea will fall to 57%, from 63.5%, the Scottish government said.
    In this case the story is definitely someone just creating stuff for a headline.

    This is not about numbers of fish as in the other case, it is about what has been agreed between the EU and UK

    Quota swapping has always been managed and controlled. It was the same in the CAP and is planned to be the same under the new arrangements with a new joint committee. The Agreement makes it clear that the committee will be responsible for certifying quota swaps and also monitoring all the other agreements covering fishing. It is a fundamental part of the whole process. It has not yet been convened but quota swaps for this coming year are already decided. So the claim that such swaps may no longer be possible runs in direct contravention to the Agreement.

    Oh and before RP starts off on one about who knows best, note it is not the fishermen making the claims about quota swaps in this article, it is that well known Brexit supporting body the Scottish government.
    Who picked up on the howls of protest from fishermen and their trade bodies.
  • Options



    Scott_xP said:

    RobD said:

    I'm talking about the story. The numbers are in the agreement, so why is there any doubt about whether the number will go up or down?

    The accord also means quota swapping -- where rights to species are swapped between boats -- may no longer be possible for U.K. fleets. That means the amount of cod they can catch in the North Sea will fall to 57%, from 63.5%, the Scottish government said.
    In this case the story is definitely someone just creating stuff for a headline.

    This is not about numbers of fish as in the other case, it is about what has been agreed between the EU and UK

    Quota swapping has always been managed and controlled. It was the same in the CAP and is planned to be the same under the new arrangements with a new joint committee. The Agreement makes it clear that the committee will be responsible for certifying quota swaps and also monitoring all the other agreements covering fishing. It is a fundamental part of the whole process. It has not yet been convened but quota swaps for this coming year are already decided. So the claim that such swaps may no longer be possible runs in direct contravention to the Agreement.

    Oh and before RP starts off on one about who knows best, note it is not the fishermen making the claims about quota swaps in this article, it is that well known Brexit supporting body the Scottish government.
    Who picked up on the howls of protest from fishermen and their trade bodies.
    I wasn't commenting on your argument over numbers, just pointing out that whoever made that claim about quota swapping is wrong. They say it is not in the deal but it is there in black and white as I pointed out several weeks ago when the deal was published. Hence I suspect yet again the use of the dubious 'may' which people like you persist in taking as gospel.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    IanB2 said:

    R4 More or Less at 9am examines the effectiveness of a single dose of vaccine

    Thanks. I shall look out for it.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Given they were easily able to answer whether or not the trip was legal, I think the answer to that question is no.
    They merely asserted it without giving details or further guidance on the distances permitted. Mungo is quite right. He incidentally voted Tory at the GE and has a longstanding Tory background, though he's fallen out with the local party.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    R4 More or Less at 9am examines the effectiveness of a single dose of vaccine

    And who better than Tim Harford (PPE, Oxford) to study this ?

    Let's see a spirited debate between journalists, politicians, broadcasters, inspirational speakers, R4 talking heads, 'Bayes' Barnesian and Baroness Bakewell.

    Unencumbered by any expertise.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC: Gavin Williamson: Machiavelli or Private Pike?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55640335

    (don't spend too long over it!)

    A bit unfair to Private Pike. Ian Lavender said of him 'I played as sheltered and naive, but never an idiot.'
    That's right. Corporal Jones was the idiot.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    No; it was a fairly early political decision that our Medicine Regulators wouldn't have anything to do with Europe, against, I believe, the scientific advice. However, partly at least because the Europe-wide organisation was situated in London quite a lot of the staff were British, which meant that when the EMA was moved to Amsterdam new staff, particularly at lower levels, had to be recruited.
  • Options
    MangoMango Posts: 1,013

    Alastair you are so embittered about Brexit. As a remainer I've had the good grace to drop it and move on. You should too.

    It's done. Finished. Over. We left the EU and for good or ill we have to get on with it.

    There are other more important things for us now to focus on.

    No. This is how we have ended up in the zero-accountability country.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,104

    The fishing numbers "argument" is the same as all the other previous and indeed future Brexit rows. Who knows most about their industry. The people who do it for a living all day every day? Or politicians who are busy embarrassing themselves by telling other baseless demonstrable lies?

    The fishing industry was peo-Brexit. Supported both the leaving of the CFP and with it the Tories. They are not an obvious camp to be making up attack stories. This is their very existence and they won. So when a fishing captain in Peterhead looks at the new numbers and says "I can catch less Cod now than I could before" he will know more about it than politicians in London who don't know where Peterhead is. Again, fisherman on the ground with numbers, vs politician quoting hot air.

    Why are people insisting the politician is right and that we should ignore these obviously politically biased moaners attacking the poor government?

    The Government reduced to gaslighting its own supporters. Sad!
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    Will UK Eurosceptics leaving make the EU parliament too comfy for its members? Vigorous debate sharpens up the process normally
  • Options

    The fishing numbers "argument" is the same as all the other previous and indeed future Brexit rows. Who knows most about their industry. The people who do it for a living all day every day? Or politicians who are busy embarrassing themselves by telling other baseless demonstrable lies?

    The fishing industry was peo-Brexit. Supported both the leaving of the CFP and with it the Tories. They are not an obvious camp to be making up attack stories. This is their very existence and they won. So when a fishing captain in Peterhead looks at the new numbers and says "I can catch less Cod now than I could before" he will know more about it than politicians in London who don't know where Peterhead is. Again, fisherman on the ground with numbers, vs politician quoting hot air.

    Why are people insisting the politician is right and that we should ignore these obviously politically biased moaners attacking the poor government?

    The Government reduced to gaslighting its own supporters. Sad!
    *giggles* Will the lasting legacy of Trump to non-Americans be the parodying of his absurd tweeting style?

    I say to non-Americans because sadly I fear that the violence has not remotely finished. De-Trumpification may take many years to achieve.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    What's that got to do with the slowness of their rollout? The rates there not hugely down from the UK number.
    Not good for them, but why are there only 17 EU countries on that chart? Where are the Netherlands etc?
  • Options
    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21
  • Options

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    No; it was a fairly early political decision that our Medicine Regulators wouldn't have anything to do with Europe, against, I believe, the scientific advice. However, partly at least because the Europe-wide organisation was situated in London quite a lot of the staff were British, which meant that when the EMA was moved to Amsterdam new staff, particularly at lower levels, had to be recruited.
    The UK offered to do reciprocal recognition, the EU rejected that.

    They could have reciprocated recognising the MHRA's expertise. They chose not to. Diddums for them.

    If they didn't have or want to recognise the MHRA's expertise then they ought to have got their own house in order.
  • Options

    Yokes said:

    NYT now reckons upto 20 GOP Senators open to conviction.

    How many do they need?
    17 from 50 (R).

    50 (D) Senators plus 17 (R) = 67 which is 2/3rds with zero Skyr abstentions.

    Romney and Murkowski are 2/17 you can pretty much guarantee.
    Isn’t it on the old senatorial composition though? I.e the recent gains in GA won’t count?
    No, why would it be?

    It will be the composition on the day the Senate votes. Which isn't going to be for weeks and weeks.
    If it starts to look like the floodgates have opened against Trump wouldn't they bring a vote forward and put Pence in charge for a few days?

    It would put my mind at rest if Trump was removed from the White House ahead of the rumoured events on the 17th.
    I doubt the Senate has the time or ability to hold the hearings in time and that would probably add fuel to the fire.

    Get through the inauguration then do it. Easier to stab a corpse when he's already down.
    Fastest way to force Trump out would be for Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment. Easiest would be if Trump resigns in exchange for a pardon. Whether Congressional Republicans being more open to convicting Trump will persuade the Cabinet to support the 25th is another question.
    NO! NO PARDON FOR TRUMPSKY! NEVER.

    He will be out regardless next week. He's virtually out right now, certainly the US military AND the rest of the federal government will take any orders with BIG grains of salt.

    Which is terrible, when upholding the Constitution means ignoring treasonous potential orders by POTUS.

    But THAT state of affairs is the fault of Trumpsky and his equally foul entourage, most especially Cruz, Hawley and the rest.
    After the failed coup, what will Trump do next and why has he not already done it? He faces impeachment and bankruptcy. He has (so far) not received a pardon from Pence or attempted to self-pardon. Is Trump counting on being bailed out financially? Has he seen Adelson's will or made a deal with a Middle-East backer? It seems doubtful Trump would skip the country: his schtick is patriot-in-chief.

    That is as far as I've got. Something will happen: quite what, I do not know.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    The only way is down when you're number one!
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    No; it was a fairly early political decision that our Medicine Regulators wouldn't have anything to do with Europe, against, I believe, the scientific advice. However, partly at least because the Europe-wide organisation was situated in London quite a lot of the staff were British, which meant that when the EMA was moved to Amsterdam new staff, particularly at lower levels, had to be recruited.
    They didn't have to move - and they certainly didn't have move quite so quickly. If Scotland does leave the union, Faslane won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Oh no, how horrible for the UK to be leading both the entire G20 and EU27 in vaccine rates.
  • Options

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    It is a competition.

    It is a competition against the virus. Do you get T-cells etc from having been infected, or from having been vaccinated.

    This isn't something to dawdle about with. Every day wasted when we have a vaccine is potentially extra avoidable deaths and more economic disruption.
  • Options

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Given they were easily able to answer whether or not the trip was legal, I think the answer to that question is no.
    They merely asserted it without giving details or further guidance on the distances permitted. Mungo is quite right. He incidentally voted Tory at the GE and has a longstanding Tory background, though he's fallen out with the local party.
    Even Number 10 could not say it was legal when first asked.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,243
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Hopefully those stats bode well for the U.K. vaccine uptake.
    Yes, I think it is the existing health infrastructure In primary care that will benefit the vaccination scheme in the UK. Government is best served by keeping out of their way.
    The UK has managed to get their ducks in a row better than most countries with vaccination:
    Nabbing some of the early supplies
    Getting early approval (I think the 3 weeks or whatever it was wouldn't have made much difference here in Germany because there were no supplies...)
    Having a relatively successful rollout - I'm guessing because of the relatively centralised system and experience with a relatively high number of flu vaccines every year.

    Nabbing early supplies is a bit of a zero sum game, I am glad if the UK got a bit ahead of the EU: both my parents in England (80+) have had their first shots, whereas if the EU had got ahead they would probably still be waiting...
    It's probably for the best that the UK is vaccinating so many more of the most vulnerable, as the UK seems to have had the misfortune to be one of the first places with this more infectious new variant, so potentially lots of lives have been saved. The situation in Ireland might be a lot worse.

    In Germany yesterday 19600 new cases, which is a lot, but I am surprised it is not more. Maybe the new variants haven't really taken off here yet, maybe the lockdown is working a bit. The number in ICU with Covid has been down a little bit the last few days (5230 reported yesterday, compared with 5678 one week ago), which is also somewhat surprising.

    I have the feeling that schools are more closed here than in England. Those children who get "emergency childcare" in the schools aren't taught in the schools but sit distanced with masks taking part in the same online lessons as the children at home (at least locally) - not sure if that is the case in England?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Brexiteers in 'still being obsessed with the EU' shocker
  • Options
    isam said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    Will UK Eurosceptics leaving make the EU parliament too comfy for its members? Vigorous debate sharpens up the process normally
    They’ll certainly miss this kind of eloquence.

    https://youtu.be/j1OGW19fjpU
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915

    Brexiteers in 'still being obsessed with the EU' shocker

    Alastair was undecided, but he plumped for Remain in the end
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263

    Yokes said:

    NYT now reckons upto 20 GOP Senators open to conviction.

    How many do they need?
    17 from 50 (R).

    50 (D) Senators plus 17 (R) = 67 which is 2/3rds with zero Skyr abstentions.

    Romney and Murkowski are 2/17 you can pretty much guarantee.
    Isn’t it on the old senatorial composition though? I.e the recent gains in GA won’t count?
    No, why would it be?

    It will be the composition on the day the Senate votes. Which isn't going to be for weeks and weeks.
    If it starts to look like the floodgates have opened against Trump wouldn't they bring a vote forward and put Pence in charge for a few days?

    It would put my mind at rest if Trump was removed from the White House ahead of the rumoured events on the 17th.
    I doubt the Senate has the time or ability to hold the hearings in time and that would probably add fuel to the fire.

    Get through the inauguration then do it. Easier to stab a corpse when he's already down.
    Fastest way to force Trump out would be for Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment. Easiest would be if Trump resigns in exchange for a pardon. Whether Congressional Republicans being more open to convicting Trump will persuade the Cabinet to support the 25th is another question.
    NO! NO PARDON FOR TRUMPSKY! NEVER.

    He will be out regardless next week. He's virtually out right now, certainly the US military AND the rest of the federal government will take any orders with BIG grains of salt.

    Which is terrible, when upholding the Constitution means ignoring treasonous potential orders by POTUS.

    But THAT state of affairs is the fault of Trumpsky and his equally foul entourage, most especially Cruz, Hawley and the rest.
    After the failed coup, what will Trump do next and why has he not already done it? He faces impeachment and bankruptcy. He has (so far) not received a pardon from Pence or attempted to self-pardon. Is Trump counting on being bailed out financially? Has he seen Adelson's will or made a deal with a Middle-East backer? It seems doubtful Trump would skip the country: his schtick is patriot-in-chief.

    That is as far as I've got. Something will happen: quite what, I do not know.
    BREAKING: Something will happen

    ?
  • Options

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Except every one of you railing against promoting our being number one would be screaming "useless fuckers!!" if we were in the relegation zone.

    We know you would.

    And heaven help us if Scotland were more successful in getting its population vaccinated than England. That wouldn't be a contest where you'd be chanting "Scotland's number one, Scotland's number one." No sirreeeee.....
    Triggered..
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Oh no, how horrible for the UK to be leading both the entire G20 and EU27 in vaccine rates.
    Triggered..
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    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    It is a competition.

    It is a competition against the virus. Do you get T-cells etc from having been infected, or from having been vaccinated.

    This isn't something to dawdle about with. Every day wasted when we have a vaccine is potentially extra avoidable deaths and more economic disruption.
    Triggered..
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    MangoMango Posts: 1,013

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    May? I mean there are tables and numbers in the agreement so this is something that could easily be checked.
    It's one of these alt fact debates. The govern,ent speaks in platitudes and says it's a great deal for Britain's fishermen. The fishermen point to the hard facts and evidentially state they can now catch less cod not more.

    It depends on whose facts your brain favours. Experts? Or liars?
    Evidence suggests 52% favour liars
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    "When in doubt Republican senators tend to follow their leader. And Mr McConnell, not Mr Trump, is their leader."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/mitch-mcconnells-cold-fury-means-donald-trump-could-convicted/

    Trump's going down folks. Happy days!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Brexiteers in 'still being obsessed with the EU' shocker

    Check the thread header. ;)
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Imagine the tables were turned. What would have their response been then?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,964
    RobD said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Imagine the tables were turned. What would have their response been then?
    Those awful Europeans delaying our vaccine deliveries...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Imagine the tables were turned. What would have their response been then?
    Those awful Europeans delaying our vaccine deliveries...
    No, there would have been criticisms that the UK government hadn't acted faster to secure the necessary supplies.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited January 2021
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    We are in DIRE need of a new political party. All this fire fighting from one CATASTROPHY to the NEXT makes us look WEAK. I suggest a new PARTY 'The ENGLISH Exceptionalists'. T.E.E for short.

    Thompson's with us RobD's with us Tig86 is with us Tyndall's with us as and we can rely on the support of EX PATS Felix and Sandpit.

    What are we waiting for......LET'S GET IT ON!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    Michael R. Sherwin, the acting U.S. attorney in Washington, called the investigation into the attack on the Capitol “unmatched” in scope and said it had already resulted in more than 170 cases involving 100,000 digital tips. He pledged that prosecutors could file charges of seditious conspiracy, murder and other serious felonies in the weeks ahead.

    NYTimes

    Some of the whackos are going to spend the rest of their lives in jail.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    edited January 2021
    Roger said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Also, the MHRA was the EU's de facto vaccine regulator. When we fucked off we took our toys with us and inhibited the EU in so doing.
    Too proud to just go with our regulator's decision? Diddums.

    @Philip_Thompson makes a very good point. Is their an opposition in the EU Parliament laying into the Commission for their piss-poor performance?
    We are in DIRE need of a new political party. All this fire fighting from one CATASTROPHY to another makes us look WEAK I suggest a new PARTY 'The ENGLISH Exceptionalists'. T.E.E for short.

    Thompson's with us RobD's with us Tig86 is with us Tyndall's with us as and we can rely on the support of EX PATS Felix and Sandpit.

    What are we waiting for......LET'S GET IT ON!
    I see you are playing the man not the ball. The point about the lack of accountability is a genuine one.
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    Michael R. Sherwin, the acting U.S. attorney in Washington, called the investigation into the attack on the Capitol “unmatched” in scope and said it had already resulted in more than 170 cases involving 100,000 digital tips. He pledged that prosecutors could file charges of seditious conspiracy, murder and other serious felonies in the weeks ahead.

    NYTimes

    Some of the whackos are going to spend the rest of their lives in jail.

    Considering five people are dead (6, but 5 directly) then they could all theoretically be charged with felony murder.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721
    edited January 2021

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    This is very petty stuff. The histrionics over the government trumpeting the one success it seems to have had is so very phoney and not remotely convincing.

    I dont believe any government anywhere does not overegg their successes, painting it as some horror story is lame as well.

    As other places accelerate their programmes we shall see relative performance, but of course the government emphasises early success. I dont believe people are genuinely outraged by that.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    Trouble for Rishi:

    The Telegraph is today launching a Stamp out the Duty campaign to support the homeowners set to be caught out by the rise, calling on the Treasury to avoid penalising thousands of homebuyers at a time when mortgage lenders are already demanding vast deposits and household finances have been battered by the pandemic.
  • Options

    Michael R. Sherwin, the acting U.S. attorney in Washington, called the investigation into the attack on the Capitol “unmatched” in scope and said it had already resulted in more than 170 cases involving 100,000 digital tips. He pledged that prosecutors could file charges of seditious conspiracy, murder and other serious felonies in the weeks ahead.

    NYTimes

    Some of the whackos are going to spend the rest of their lives in jail.

    And so are some of the selfie-takers who tagged along and got caught up in the moment. The man who instigated this insurrection will be in Florida, still cheating at golf, still ripping off American tax-payers.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199

    "When in doubt Republican senators tend to follow their leader. And Mr McConnell, not Mr Trump, is their leader."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/mitch-mcconnells-cold-fury-means-donald-trump-could-convicted/

    Trump's going down folks. Happy days!

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1349138131233222661
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,105

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Except every one of you railing against promoting our being number one would be screaming "useless fuckers!!" if we were in the relegation zone.

    We know you would.

    And heaven help us if Scotland were more successful in getting its population vaccinated than England. That wouldn't be a contest where you'd be chanting "Scotland's number one, Scotland's number one." No sirreeeee.....
    Triggered..
    Three posts in a row that show you have no response that would withstand scrutiny.

    Point and laugh.....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721

    "When in doubt Republican senators tend to follow their leader. And Mr McConnell, not Mr Trump, is their leader."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/mitch-mcconnells-cold-fury-means-donald-trump-could-convicted/

    Trump's going down folks. Happy days!

    Maybe. Could be a warning shot to Trump.

    But he doesn't learn. Only punishment will teach him.
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    kamski said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Incidentally Mango here is a European political scientist, author and former politician who is saying the same thing with regards to vaccines. That the UK is doing better because of the constant pressure on the government to perform is probably correct.

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349100962997272576
    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1349103017971298311

    That is what democracy does. It holds our government's to account.

    That is what Brexit does. It holds removes the canard of "Europe makes us do it that way" and ensures there is no hiding space for failure.

    If the UK was in the EU's procurement scheme who would have been held to account for its failings? If the UK fails, who is held to account?

    That is the power of democracy.

    No it is just the banal point that most European countries are not very good at vaccinating adults for other things either.


    Hopefully those stats bode well for the U.K. vaccine uptake.
    Yes, I think it is the existing health infrastructure In primary care that will benefit the vaccination scheme in the UK. Government is best served by keeping out of their way.
    The UK has managed to get their ducks in a row better than most countries with vaccination:
    Nabbing some of the early supplies
    Getting early approval (I think the 3 weeks or whatever it was wouldn't have made much difference here in Germany because there were no supplies...)
    Having a relatively successful rollout - I'm guessing because of the relatively centralised system and experience with a relatively high number of flu vaccines every year.

    Nabbing early supplies is a bit of a zero sum game, I am glad if the UK got a bit ahead of the EU: both my parents in England (80+) have had their first shots, whereas if the EU had got ahead they would probably still be waiting...
    It's probably for the best that the UK is vaccinating so many more of the most vulnerable, as the UK seems to have had the misfortune to be one of the first places with this more infectious new variant, so potentially lots of lives have been saved. The situation in Ireland might be a lot worse.

    In Germany yesterday 19600 new cases, which is a lot, but I am surprised it is not more. Maybe the new variants haven't really taken off here yet, maybe the lockdown is working a bit. The number in ICU with Covid has been down a little bit the last few days (5230 reported yesterday, compared with 5678 one week ago), which is also somewhat surprising.

    I have the feeling that schools are more closed here than in England. Those children who get "emergency childcare" in the schools aren't taught in the schools but sit distanced with masks taking part in the same online lessons as the children at home (at least locally) - not sure if that is the case in England?
    As I said yesterday I am finding these comparisons between countries as exemplified by that flag advert to be pretty offensive given that the background to this is people dying whether it is in the UK, Germany or Spain.

    The only reasons for making comparisons is to try and identify if some countries can learn from others and do better. The aim should be for everyone to be vaccinated equally in every country as soon as possible so we are all safer.

    Stupid rankings - for all they can add a frisson of excitement - really don't help anyone and only invite mindless attacks in reverse when, as inevitably happens, someone here in the UK also drops the ball.

    I like the graphs showing progress because that is what is happening - progress. But their aim should be to inform and educate so we can get better not to do stupid points scoring or prop up political parties.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    kle4 said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    This is very petty stuff. The histrionics over the government trumpeting the one success it seems to have had is so very phoney and not remotely convincing.

    I dont believe any government anywhere does not overegg their successes, painting it as some horror story is lame as well.

    As other places accelerate their programmes we shall see relative performance, but of course the government emphasises early success. I dont believe people are genuinely outraged by that.
    Otto English is a fair and unbiased arbiter, just like Paul J Watson
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,721

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Except every one of you railing against promoting our being number one would be screaming "useless fuckers!!" if we were in the relegation zone.

    We know you would.

    And heaven help us if Scotland were more successful in getting its population vaccinated than England. That wouldn't be a contest where you'd be chanting "Scotland's number one, Scotland's number one." No sirreeeee.....
    Triggered..
    Lazy.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    edited January 2021
    Betfair.
    Free money 1.01 Trump to leave office this year. The 1.02 disappeared two days ago, and the 70s to lay on 2025 went overnight. 1.01 with (up to) a week left is not tempting which is why there is more than £1 million available.

    Trump to leave before the end of his first term (a week to Biden's inauguration btw) has continued to fluctuate overnight and (in a far thinner market than the one above) now has:
    Yes 9.4
    No 1.1
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540

    Comparisons between countries regarding deaths or vaccination policy or whatever seem to me to be quite fair.

    Different countries are trying different things. The only way we find out what works is by looking at country to country comparisons.

    We are all guinea pigs in a live experiment between 193 countries.

    E.g., I think it is good from a scientific point of view that Sweden tried a different policy. It is unfortunate from Sweden's point of view that it failed.

    It is obvious now that Sweden's policy has failed by looking at comparisons between similar European countries, but I don't think it was obvious a priori that it would fail.

    Some of the COVID triumphalism is unnecessary, but we absolutely need to do country by country comparisons.

    And in the UK, I think it is good that we are looking at the performance of E, W, S and NI separately. We all benefit from such healthy competition.

    I don't disagree, but in your first sentence you mention 'comparisons between countries regarding deaths or vaccination policy'.

    While we boast, patriotically and with justification, about our vaccine rollout, we are more reticent about our deaths.

    I can't imagine a Conservative tweet saying: Highest death toll in Europe! In Western Europe, only Belgium and Italy have a higher death rate (per million) than the UK! How's about that for world-beating!

    I just wish we had a bit more dignity, and a bit more balance, instead of this embarrassing and rather petty triumphalism. It's in all our interests that everybody, globally, gets vaccinated as soon as possible. And as I've said before, it's rather early to be celebrating vaccine uptake.
This discussion has been closed.