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Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com
Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com
Has Brexit matched your expectations? Let’s start by considering what your expectations should have been. Shortly before the referendum in 2016, Vote Leave issued a document called Leave Looks Like… which is the closest thing they had to a manifesto. Their bullet point commitments were as follows:
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Yes 13.5
No 1.07
Trump to leave office in 2021 is 1.01 (all the 1.02 went yesterday) although there is a small amount of 2025 to be laid at 75.
Stop the bad steal.
As someone who voted - ultimately - so I, like my fellow Brits, could elect, or throw out, the people who rule me, I am modestly content, if desperately wistful for what could have been.
It should not have come to this. If only arrogant europhiles had granted us a referendum at any time in the prior two decades, we would have established an arm's-length relationship with the EU, outside its political structures, inside the SM. If only hardcore eurosceptics had understood what outright departure meant, but they did not. The EU is to blame as well, of course. They should have given Cameron more.
It will go down in history as an almighty failure of statecraft, on all sides.
Now we move on
Delay may end up inevitable, but should be for reasons that cannot be resolved and would have genuinely significant impact, not because people think it would be more convenient. I would accept I didn't fully think through the nominations issue - the number needed for PCCs has always been ridiculous - and you've made a good case, far better than the 'it's too difficult' crowd.
Pleasant night all. It does for most elections. You're kidding yourself if you think most places have lots of leaflets and GOTV work going on. Oh, it happens, but it's not as prevalent as party members think, even when they do some work. We all know people who won despite doing very little, if anything (my own councillor has admitted they didn't bother to canvass half the ward). You can think anyone objecting doesn't know how elections work, but it's more complicated than that.
Note, however, how the arguments have moved from the logistics of holding the elections to the logistics of campaigning for the elections - which is fair enough, as the latter is more problematic and not an unreasonable argument for delay.
But its because the logistics of holding them is not as difficult as some people, who presumably 'understand the logistics of elections', hadsuggested. People have been working hard for months to make it so.
So it's not a case of whether they can be held - they can - but whether they should. That's a lively debate, but it's not as impossible or unreasonable as first suggested.
Just tried and failed to watch Black Narcissus (gave up after 20 mins despite Gemma Arteron- too many slamming shuters).
OTOH Queens Gambit was excellent.
I'd say they have achieved the majority of that. The 'we' perhaps doesn't include Northern Ireland.
The question is more the price paid for these goals. The breakup of the UK certainly looks more likely.
Surely we should prioritise sport to keep it going, given the alarming propogation of Covid through football. Football clubs have their own medical staff, and regularly meet for training as well as matches. How hard can it be to stick a few needles in arms?
More subtly, there might be a problem for horseracing with Cheltenham (mid-March) as Irish horses will need to be accompanied by Irish stable staff, and Ireland's infection rate rocketed after Christmas. Racing's record on Covid has been good up to now, but you'd hope negotiations are going on around jabs for Irish staff and maybe making the racecourse and its accommodation a quarantine zone.
https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1349077277389291522
https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1349100824694304769
"When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less." "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things." "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master—that's all."
That is all.
No one is suggesting there is no case for moving them, just that it is serious and should be avoided if it can. Mere convenience is not a good reason, not when so much work has gone into preparing for them already and some are very out of date.
I expect them to be delayed and that it will probably be justified when it happens, but it is not a simple no brainer decision, and it is the treating of it as no brainer to which I object. After all, some thought the logistics being a problem was a no brainer too, yet it probably is not given the preparatory work. So things that appear no brainers are not always so. Nominations definitely is a stronger argument. Campaigning too, though nowhere near as strong as people suggest as it is not as impactful as campaigners like to think.
In the instance of the Scottish Parliament at the very least (the other elections I know less about) they have already given consideration to the legislation for contingency planning and for modifications etc. that might be necessary. At the very least there is still time to explore these in more detail before any need to postpone.
By the time these elections come round the government will have been telling us that, sorry, things aren't normal for the best part of a year. If that means it's not a "normal" election and it requires different forms of campaigning and participating and organising then it's just one more thing on the inordinately long list of things that have been made abnormal by the pandemic.
There's all sorts of logistical challenges that covid has created and many of them have had to be addressed with considerably less advance warning than these elections. Solutions have had to be found and/or people have had to mend and make do and muddle through it all as best they can. I see no reason why the elections should be any different.
Will it be easy? Probably not. Will it be different? Probably. Is that much different to anything else that's happened in the last year? No.
We end the supremacy of EU law and the European Court. We will be able to kick out those who make our laws. - 10/10 GB, 9/10 for UK as some still applies in NI. Mr Meeks takes away marks for legacy issues being left and may not be changed, that is immaterial - if we want to change them we can do so, if we don't that is our choice.
Europe yes, EU no. We have a new UK-EU Treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. We will take back the power to negotiate our own trade deals. - 10/10 - We have a zero tariff, zero quota FTA. Sure we're out of the customs union but so are Iceland specifically named too. We have the power to negotiate trade deals too.
We spend our money on our priorities. Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and schools. - 10/10 - Done.
We take back control of migration policy, including the 1951 UN Convention on refugees, so we have a fairer and more humane policy, and we decide who comes into our country, on what terms, and who is removed. 10/10 - Done.
We will regain our seat on international bodies where Brussels represents us, and use our greater international influence to push for greater international cooperation. 10/10 for regaining our seats that is done. How we use them is up to us to push in the future.
We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way. 8/10 - We have a new architecture in Europe with Europe's first non-EFTA, no four pillars, zero tariff/zero quota agreement done in a friendly and cooperative way. Whether that will be available or used by other nations remains to be seen, but already some in Norway are calling our deal better than their own and calling for negotiations to change things.
We will negotiate a new UK-EU Treaty and end the legal supremacy of EU law and the European Court before the 2020 election. 9/10 - It has been done but Theresa May wasted three years time so the EU law ended December 2020 instead of May 2020. I don't think the calamity of Theresa May was foreseen as part of the plans.
We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 – we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests. - Void. This was already invoked before the Vote Leave Boris government replaced May's. No TARDIS available.
The authorities need to take serious action about those targetting elected officials.
If anyone had told me that we would leave the EU with zero disruption, I would have told them they were lying. To coin a sucky PB analogy, we've just had a large scale surgical operation (I'll leave your position on Brexit to dictate which operation). At the moment we have sensitivity, bruising, and mild grogginess. None of those are pleasant for the sufferer, but they have no long term relevancy on the success or otherwise of the surgery.
One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....
Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.
Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.
Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:
If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.
At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.
Incidentally, I concur with your partner. I have real problems with dairy. The lacto free stuff is great; I actually can't taste the difference now. And its infinitely superior to the horrendous, dusty, nut or soy substitutes marketed as 'milk'
Its like deaths at the beginning, often a significant lag. Still the case with tests.
Now, as Benpointer says, can we focus on the vaccines? Not on Brexit, not on blonde tea-drinkers, not on Boris bike rides, but on the vaccination rate, which is well below where we need it to be, and is the only game in town.
I'm flabbergasted! My gast has never been so flabbered!
Sorry and all that
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1349046349266874369
https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1349106097014140939
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1349107567608410112
A bit like Starmer kicking British Trump (Corbyn) out of the Labour Party, but only after he'd gotten control over the party himself.
Mitch must be absolutely fuming not just about the invasian of the Capitol but also about how Trump's antics have gifted the Democrats the Senate's two Georgia seats. Had it not been for Trump's post-election meltdown antics then Mitch would still be Senate Majority Leader on 20 January.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55638017
https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1348960145502560256
That is not the same as agreeing with the direction. 'Norway for Now' was always the best option to my mind.
Fun times ahead
"People who have received vaccinations, by report date (daily)
Number of people who have received a COVID-19 vaccination, by day on which the vaccine was reported.
Data are reported daily, and include all vaccination events that are entered on the relevant system at the time of extract. Data are presented for vaccinations carried out up to and including the end of the report date."
My take is that the cumulative figures for 11/1/20 (published today) include all the vaccination stats entered into the system yesterday, so include most of Monday's actual vaccinations.
Let's see if there's a big jump in numbers tomorrow.
... which is obviously much worse than a free single market.
Limited overs cricket is a good example, you always score at a faster in the final overs than the first few overs, so long as in the first few overs you can secure a good foundation and not get caught out.
"no VIOLENCE against SCHUMER AND PELOSI they ROBBED US"
@Mortimer, there may be routing of supply chains so there is increased use of ROI . There is a fair integration piece there, some of big UK chains are present North & South and Ireland's agri-food industry as a whole is sizeable. I am fortunate in that I don't mind good old cows milk at all but I know it doesn't work that way for everyone.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1349013299275456519
Meeks once again claiming to speak for Leavers and not having the first clue what he is actually talking about.
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1349111412661039105
The real question is whether the issues that drove it are addressed, and for that it is too early to say.
This map of social disintegration of community is not completely identical to the map of Leaverstan, but there is a strong family resemblance. We now get to see how Brexit solves those issues. My hunch is that it will accelerate the social discontent.
https://twitter.com/Will_Tanner/status/1348927558562283520?s=09
USA, Brazil, UK, Germany
I'm not sure, but this may be a melancholy First