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Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 12 in General
imageLeave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com

Has Brexit matched your expectations?  Let’s start by considering what your expectations should have been.  Shortly before the referendum in 2016, Vote Leave issued a document called Leave Looks Like… which is the closest thing they had to a manifesto.  Their bullet point commitments were as follows:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,714
    First.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690
    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us
  • Agree.
  • OT Betfair Trump to leave office before his term is up (inauguration is Wednesday week, btw) has been fluctuating a lot this afternoon, though generally moving towards no.

    Yes 13.5
    No 1.07

    Trump to leave office in 2021 is 1.01 (all the 1.02 went yesterday) although there is a small amount of 2025 to be laid at 75.
  • First like Trump.

    Stop the bad steal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 11,407

    First like Trump.

    Stop the bad steal.

    You won it bigly TSE - it was beautiful, the biggest victory ever.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514
    edited January 12
    Mortimer said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    No one is ever "fully vaccinated", since no vaccine has 100% efficacy.
    In fairness he does define what he means by the term, even if it might imply something else.
    Mortimer said:

    The BBC can broadcast a Manchester debate to Manchester people and a London debate to London people, as it does with the local news programmes. These are not insurmountable problems.

    By my reckoning there's over 7,500 council seats up election this year in England alone, I'm not sure your plan will be able to cover every contest, because if you only allow some candidates airtime and not all then that's not permissible to ensure a fair contest.
    In the main, the people who want to 'get on with it' don't understand the logistics of elections.

    Here is one for you.

    PCC candidates need 100 nominations.

    It all has to be on the same paper form (albeit multiple pages)

    These nominations have be hand signed by the elector, usually after some cajoling as nominations are public domain.

    Local council candidates need 10 nominations.

    There are over 7500 council seats, and individuals cannot nominate candidates from different parties.

    You see the problems?

    There are definitely logistical issues, it would not necessarily be easy. What is objectionable is the cavalier approach some are taking on delaying some now for a period of 16-18 months since they were supposed to be held, sometimes itself on the basis of a lack of understanding of the logistics and assuming that none of them can be mitigated (such as issues around counts and polling places), when work has been ongoing and is ongoing to so mitigate them.

    Nominations does raise additional issues, and if we are still in lockdown in a few months, as may be the case, the strength for delay is strengthened, but it would be wrong to imply those who would prefer they be on time know nothing of logistics and those who don't do, as the responses are more varied than that.
    Nuance is everything, of course.

    The democratic deficit created by not having elections is not something I'd choose either. But to be honest there are precedents for these things. Public clamour for local elections isn't massive.

    If it were up to me, to solve the problem of the democratic deficit, and the pandemic, I would do this:

    1) Hold local by elections but have them all postal - these are frequently created by the death or moving away of a candidate and result in real problems in that electors are not represented.

    2) Push everything else off for a few months - all those sitting elected officials were elected and are still representing their electors. Which realistically means September or October, I think, for all but important by elections.
    I don't think that is an unreasonable plan, I wouldn't be outraged by it. I want them to work to see if they can be held and not delay simply because it's easy and no one cares about local elections, as I think they are important (nor because some party members are upset that they don't get to show how vital their efforts are, or might not actually be), but it is clearly a balance that needs to be struck.

    Delay may end up inevitable, but should be for reasons that cannot be resolved and would have genuinely significant impact, not because people think it would be more convenient. I would accept I didn't fully think through the nominations issue - the number needed for PCCs has always been ridiculous - and you've made a good case, far better than the 'it's too difficult' crowd.

    Pleasant night all.

    Mortimer said:

    The BBC can broadcast a Manchester debate to Manchester people and a London debate to London people, as it does with the local news programmes. These are not insurmountable problems.

    By my reckoning there's over 7,500 council seats up election this year in England alone, I'm not sure your plan will be able to cover every contest, because if you only allow some candidates airtime and not all then that's not permissible to ensure a fair contest.
    In the main, the people who want to 'get on with it' don't understand the logistics of elections.

    Here is one for you.

    PCC candidates need 100 nominations.

    It all has to be on the same paper form (albeit multiple pages)

    These nominations have be hand signed by the elector, usually after some cajoling as nominations are public domain.

    Local council candidates need 10 nominations.

    There are over 7500 council seats, and individuals cannot nominate candidates from different parties.

    You see the problems?

    I do.

    Plus people don't realise how much elections like these are won by hard work and GOTV.

    A single leaflet ain't going to do it.
    It does for most elections. You're kidding yourself if you think most places have lots of leaflets and GOTV work going on. Oh, it happens, but it's not as prevalent as party members think, even when they do some work. We all know people who won despite doing very little, if anything (my own councillor has admitted they didn't bother to canvass half the ward). You can think anyone objecting doesn't know how elections work, but it's more complicated than that.

    Note, however, how the arguments have moved from the logistics of holding the elections to the logistics of campaigning for the elections - which is fair enough, as the latter is more problematic and not an unreasonable argument for delay.

    But its because the logistics of holding them is not as difficult as some people, who presumably 'understand the logistics of elections', hadsuggested. People have been working hard for months to make it so.

    So it's not a case of whether they can be held - they can - but whether they should. That's a lively debate, but it's not as impossible or unreasonable as first suggested.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 24,349
    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    "We need sovereignty to keep the foreigns out'
  • It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    No, and @AlastairMeeks' header is mistaken here too. First, I do not believe immigration was a primary motivator, even for those voters who say it was. However, they will be disappointed to learn that "taking control of" immigration does not mean reducing immigration.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690
    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312
    edited January 12
    FPT:


    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    A useful phrase for future deployment.

    Yes, I think that is a good one, and very obviously what has happened. People think where there is smoke there is fire, so even though in court challenges Trump did not usually allege anything as much as he said in public, his catamites in Congress would then say 'Lots of people are worried about these allegations, we must look into it'.
    Gave that a like, principally for a good use of the excellent word, ‘catamite’.
    Must be wonderful to be able to insult people with words they have to look up.

    Once had gf who said I was solipsistic. Wasn't till I got home and checked it out that I knew I wasn't getting a second date.
    I mentioned on here last week I had called Boris Johnson a political catamite of the Brexit Right.

    A prize for why Boris Johnson is forever associated with catamites?
    The Colin Lucas 'quote' Johnson made up?
    Correct.

    Boris's blunders

    The made-up quotes As a 23-year-old Times trainee Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists' discovery of Edward II's 14th-century palace. He quoted an Oxford historian, Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch "enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston" at the palace. Gaveston was indeed a nobleman of the time and rumoured to have been the king's lover. He was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.

    Lucas worried for his academic reputation and told the Times he did not say this. Trying to repair the matter but instead making it worse, Johnson wrote a follow-up which included another quote from Lucas, also denied by the academic. Johnson was sacked by the Times editor at the time, Charles Wilson.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/mar/25/boris-johnson-eddie-mair-interview
    Excellent.

    What's my prize?
    A joke from me.

    Q: Did you hear that the Egyptian tomb they recently opened was stuffed full of wafer, nuts, and chocolate?

    A: Archaeologists think it was Pharaoh Rocher.
    A top prize - brightened up another dreary lockdown evening. Thanks.

    Just tried and failed to watch Black Narcissus (gave up after 20 mins despite Gemma Arteron- too many slamming shuters).

    OTOH Queens Gambit was excellent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,670
    Honestly speaking when it was set out like that - I foresaw a different conclusion.

    I'd say they have achieved the majority of that. The 'we' perhaps doesn't include Northern Ireland.

    The question is more the price paid for these goals. The breakup of the UK certainly looks more likely.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
    I'm just going off the Ashcroft polling on the subject, which was quite extensive.
  • Vaccination and sport.

    Surely we should prioritise sport to keep it going, given the alarming propogation of Covid through football. Football clubs have their own medical staff, and regularly meet for training as well as matches. How hard can it be to stick a few needles in arms?

    More subtly, there might be a problem for horseracing with Cheltenham (mid-March) as Irish horses will need to be accompanied by Irish stable staff, and Ireland's infection rate rocketed after Christmas. Racing's record on Covid has been good up to now, but you'd hope negotiations are going on around jabs for Irish staff and maybe making the racecourse and its accommodation a quarantine zone.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
    I'm just going off the Ashcroft polling on the subject, which was quite extensive.
    Ashcroft's constituency polling at GE2016 was also quite extensive but was utter bollocks for the most part.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    No idea how Biden puts his country back together again.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
    I'm just going off the Ashcroft polling on the subject, which was quite extensive.
    Ashcroft's constituency polling at GE2016 was also quite extensive but was utter bollocks for the most part.
    Isn't constituency polling notoriously difficult? This was just a bog standard opinion poll.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 4,664
    Sovereignty seems to mean different things to different people.

    "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less." "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things." "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master—that's all."

    That is all.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
    I'm just going off the Ashcroft polling on the subject, which was quite extensive.
    Ashcroft's constituency polling at GE2016 was also quite extensive but was utter bollocks for the most part.
    Isn't constituency polling notoriously difficult? This was just a bog standard opinion poll.
    Some of his methodology in that poll did raise some eyebrows.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    Scott_xP said:
    That they have to do this speaks volumes for the state of the US right now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 60,514

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    No one is ever "fully vaccinated", since no vaccine has 100% efficacy.
    In fairness he does define what he means by the term, even if it might imply something else.
    Mortimer said:

    The BBC can broadcast a Manchester debate to Manchester people and a London debate to London people, as it does with the local news programmes. These are not insurmountable problems.

    By my reckoning there's over 7,500 council seats up election this year in England alone, I'm not sure your plan will be able to cover every contest, because if you only allow some candidates airtime and not all then that's not permissible to ensure a fair contest.
    In the main, the people who want to 'get on with it' don't understand the logistics of elections.

    Here is one for you.

    PCC candidates need 100 nominations.

    It all has to be on the same paper form (albeit multiple pages)

    These nominations have be hand signed by the elector, usually after some cajoling as nominations are public domain.

    Local council candidates need 10 nominations.

    There are over 7500 council seats, and individuals cannot nominate candidates from different parties.

    You see the problems?

    There are definitely logistical issues, it would not necessarily be easy. What is objectionable is the cavalier approach some are taking on delaying some now for a period of 16-18 months since they were supposed to be held, sometimes itself on the basis of a lack of understanding of the logistics and assuming that none of them can be mitigated (such as issues around counts and polling places), when work has been ongoing and is ongoing to so mitigate them.

    Nominations does raise additional issues, and if we are still in lockdown in a few months, as may be the case, the strength for delay is strengthened, but it would be wrong to imply those who would prefer they be on time know nothing of logistics and those who don't do, as the responses are more varied than that.
    When is the nomination deadline?

    If restrictions are likely to be in place until March then that could take us past the point of the nomination deadline, even if counting in May is OK.

    An election is about more than just counting. A few months wait to have a proper election seems a no-brainer to me as being much more democratic.
    If restrictions are still in place for March then the case will be very much stronger. The final decision can wait because it shouldn't be taken lightly. And it definitely is by some, if they start with concerns which are capable of mitigation.

    No one is suggesting there is no case for moving them, just that it is serious and should be avoided if it can. Mere convenience is not a good reason, not when so much work has gone into preparing for them already and some are very out of date.

    I expect them to be delayed and that it will probably be justified when it happens, but it is not a simple no brainer decision, and it is the treating of it as no brainer to which I object. After all, some thought the logistics being a problem was a no brainer too, yet it probably is not given the preparatory work. So things that appear no brainers are not always so. Nominations definitely is a stronger argument. Campaigning too, though nowhere near as strong as people suggest as it is not as impactful as campaigners like to think.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 3,726
    edited January 12
    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    That sounds like a very atypical poll, because the headlines from most polling companies were about all about immigration. It was all within a year of the 2015 migration crisis.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,269
    kle4 said:


    It does for most elections. You're kidding yourself if you think most places have lots of leaflets and GOTV work going on. Oh, it happens, but it's not as prevalent as party members think, even when they do some work. We all know people who won despite doing very little, if anything (my own councillor has admitted they didn't bother to canvass half the ward). You can think anyone objecting doesn't know how elections work, but it's more complicated than that.

    Note, however, how the arguments have moved from the logistics of holding the elections to the logistics of campaigning for the elections - which is fair enough, as the latter is more problematic and not an unreasonable argument for delay.

    But its because the logistics of holding them is not as difficult as some people, who presumably 'understand the logistics of elections', hadsuggested. People have been working hard for months to make it so.

    So it's not a case of whether they can be held - they can - but whether they should. That's a lively debate, but it's not as impossible or unreasonable as first suggested.

    If we can tell our businesses what our trading relationship actually looks like basically on the stroke of the end of the Brexit transition, and if we can work out how to vaccinate the entire UK adult population twice ASAP, I can't see why we can't take that JFDI attitude to a set of elections that we know are still nearly 4 months away.

    In the instance of the Scottish Parliament at the very least (the other elections I know less about) they have already given consideration to the legislation for contingency planning and for modifications etc. that might be necessary. At the very least there is still time to explore these in more detail before any need to postpone.

    By the time these elections come round the government will have been telling us that, sorry, things aren't normal for the best part of a year. If that means it's not a "normal" election and it requires different forms of campaigning and participating and organising then it's just one more thing on the inordinately long list of things that have been made abnormal by the pandemic.

    There's all sorts of logistical challenges that covid has created and many of them have had to be addressed with considerably less advance warning than these elections. Solutions have had to be found and/or people have had to mend and make do and muddle through it all as best they can. I see no reason why the elections should be any different.

    Will it be easy? Probably not. Will it be different? Probably. Is that much different to anything else that's happened in the last year? No.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
    I'm just going off the Ashcroft polling on the subject, which was quite extensive.
    Ashcroft's constituency polling at GE2016 was also quite extensive but was utter bollocks for the most part.
    Isn't constituency polling notoriously difficult? This was just a bog standard opinion poll.
    Some of his methodology in that poll did raise some eyebrows.
    Which would affect the relative ranking of the different reasons to vote?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    That sounds like a very atypical poll, because the headlines from most polling companies were about all about immigration. It was within a year of the 2015 migration crisis.
    Here it is - https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/02/how-the-uk-voted-on-brexit-and-why-a-refresher/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 5,983
    edited January 12
    A bit late for a statement of the bleeding obvious. Now, if the Joint Chiefs swore continued alliegance to Trump, that would be an intervention.
  • Scott_xP said:
    That they have to do this speaks volumes for the state of the US right now.
    Exactly what I was thinking ; they're obviously imagining that Trump is still managing to stir up some of their ranks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    edited January 12
    Yes absolutely, apart from the timewasting of Theresa May delaying things.

    We end the supremacy of EU law and the European Court. We will be able to kick out those who make our laws. - 10/10 GB, 9/10 for UK as some still applies in NI. Mr Meeks takes away marks for legacy issues being left and may not be changed, that is immaterial - if we want to change them we can do so, if we don't that is our choice.

    Europe yes, EU no. We have a new UK-EU Treaty based on free trade and friendly cooperation. There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. We will take back the power to negotiate our own trade deals. - 10/10 - We have a zero tariff, zero quota FTA. Sure we're out of the customs union but so are Iceland specifically named too. We have the power to negotiate trade deals too.

    We spend our money on our priorities. Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and schools. - 10/10 - Done.

    We take back control of migration policy, including the 1951 UN Convention on refugees, so we have a fairer and more humane policy, and we decide who comes into our country, on what terms, and who is removed. 10/10 - Done.

    We will regain our seat on international bodies where Brussels represents us, and use our greater international influence to push for greater international cooperation. 10/10 for regaining our seats that is done. How we use them is up to us to push in the future.

    We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way. 8/10 - We have a new architecture in Europe with Europe's first non-EFTA, no four pillars, zero tariff/zero quota agreement done in a friendly and cooperative way. Whether that will be available or used by other nations remains to be seen, but already some in Norway are calling our deal better than their own and calling for negotiations to change things.

    We will negotiate a new UK-EU Treaty and end the legal supremacy of EU law and the European Court before the 2020 election. 9/10 - It has been done but Theresa May wasted three years time so the EU law ended December 2020 instead of May 2020. I don't think the calamity of Theresa May was foreseen as part of the plans.

    We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 – we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests. - Void. This was already invoked before the Vote Leave Boris government replaced May's. No TARDIS available.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    edited January 12

    No idea how Biden puts his country back together again.



    The authorities need to take serious action about those targetting elected officials.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    edited January 12
    We're 12 days into Brexit. We're currently dealing with what I see as the inevitable disruption of leaving a very long standing and pervasive set of legal arrangements, and doing so with additional disruption caused by a global pandemic. I feel sorry for anyone suffering specifically due to this initial period, but I firmly believe that in the long term, there will be new business opportunities and ways of working that will produce greater prosperity than they have enjoyed thus far.

    If anyone had told me that we would leave the EU with zero disruption, I would have told them they were lying. To coin a sucky PB analogy, we've just had a large scale surgical operation (I'll leave your position on Brexit to dictate which operation). At the moment we have sensitivity, bruising, and mild grogginess. None of those are pleasant for the sufferer, but they have no long term relevancy on the success or otherwise of the surgery.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 467
    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312
    With respect Alastair what's the point in scoring Brexit?

    Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.

    Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.

    Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:

    If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

    Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.

    At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    edited January 12

    We're 12 days into Brexit. We're currently dealing with what I see as the inevitable disruption of leaving a very long standing and pervasive set of legal arrangements, and doing so with additional disruption caused by a global pandemic. I feel sorry for anyone suffering specifically due to this initial period, but I firmly believe that in the long term, there will be new business opportunities and ways of working that will produce greater prosperity than they have enjoyed thus far.

    If anyone had told me that we would leave the EU with zero disruption, I would have told them they were lying. To coin a sucky PB analogy, we've just had a large scale surgical operation (I'll leave your position on Brexit to dictate which operation). At the moment we have sensitivity, bruising, and mild grogginess. None of those are pleasant for the sufferer, but they have no long term relevancy on the success or otherwise of the surgery.

    And well done for writing about something that isn't Trump.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    No-one knows what Sovereignty means As seen in Alastair's analysis it is highly debateable whether sovereignty, whatever it means, has been achieved. Immigration on the other hand...
    So? That doesn't mean it wasn't the primary motivation for them.
    If you believe that sovereignty and not immigration was the reason for Leave's success, I have a bus with a slogan on the side to sell you.
    I'm just going off the Ashcroft polling on the subject, which was quite extensive.
    Ashcroft's constituency polling at GE2016 was also quite extensive but was utter bollocks for the most part.
    Isn't constituency polling notoriously difficult? This was just a bog standard opinion poll.
    Some of his methodology in that poll did raise some eyebrows.
    Yes, Q5 is something that should have been asked at the end.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    edited January 12

    With respect Alastair what's the point in scoring Brexit?

    Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.

    Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.

    Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:

    If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

    Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.

    At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.

    It was from Sunday, before the large centres opened on Monday. Its needs to be triple 160k a day, but it was Sunday and before we really got.cracking on the expansion of capacity (7 large centres.open, government want 50 in next few weeks).

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 8,690

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    No, and @AlastairMeeks' header is mistaken here too. First, I do not believe immigration was a primary motivator, even for those voters who say it was. However, they will be disappointed to learn that "taking control of" immigration does not mean reducing immigration.
    I don't disagree with your last statement. But immigration from Europe- gone. Likewise my retirement to Europe.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    Arla is German. I thought most of the milk came from the UK, but could be wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302

    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    Arla is German. I thought most of the milk came from the UK, but could be wrong.
    Danish.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,300

    We're 12 days into Brexit. We're currently dealing with what I see as the inevitable disruption of leaving a very long standing and pervasive set of legal arrangements, and doing so with additional disruption caused by a global pandemic. I feel sorry for anyone suffering specifically due to this initial period, but I firmly believe that in the long term, there will be new business opportunities and ways of working that will produce greater prosperity than they have enjoyed thus far.

    If anyone had told me that we would leave the EU with zero disruption, I would have told them they were lying. To coin a sucky PB analogy, we've just had a large scale surgical operation (I'll leave your position on Brexit to dictate which operation). At the moment we have sensitivity, bruising, and mild grogginess. None of those are pleasant for the sufferer, but they have no long term relevancy on the success or otherwise of the surgery.

    Its almost as bad as the last 12 days for me on the wagon.!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    More made up grievance? Much like the tax on the NHS bonus.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,393
    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    Commiserations. I'm guessing there will be some rerouting of supply chains; i.e. more from the South?

    Incidentally, I concur with your partner. I have real problems with dairy. The lacto free stuff is great; I actually can't taste the difference now. And its infinitely superior to the horrendous, dusty, nut or soy substitutes marketed as 'milk'
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312

    With respect Alastair what's the point in scoring Brexit?

    Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.

    Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.

    Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:

    If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

    Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.

    At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.

    It was from Sunday, before the large centres opened on Monday. Its needs to be triple 160k a day, but it was Sunday and before we really got.cracking on the expansion of capacity (7 large centres.open, government want 50 in next few weeks).

    Are you sure? The values published today against 11.01.2020 surely show the number of vaccinations carried out yesterday, the 11th. Or are you saying there are two days lag in reporting?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182
    Scott_xP said:
    Fake headline. James Withers from a Scottish Government funded quango says he 'estimates' it 'may be' costing 'up to' £1m a day. He is no more a fish trader than you or I.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312
    Scott_xP said:
    They should ask the 52% to have a whip-round, shirley?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    edited January 12

    With respect Alastair what's the point in scoring Brexit?

    Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.

    Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.

    Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:

    If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

    Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.

    At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.

    It was from Sunday, before the large centres opened on Monday. Its needs to be triple 160k a day, but it was Sunday and before we really got.cracking on the expansion of capacity (7 large centres.open, government want 50 in next few weeks).

    Are you sure? The values published today against 11.01.2020 surely show the number of vaccinations carried out yesterday, the 11th. Or are you saying there are two days lag in reporting?
    Somebody posted here earlier that in the pdf it says from x December to 10th Jan. There is no automated system, so takes time at the moment to enter all the data into the system from paper records.

    Its like deaths at the beginning, often a significant lag. Still the case with tests.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    You mean the supermarkets rather than keeping shelves empty long term are addressing the issue by changing the layout of the shelves and filling the gaps with other products?

    I'm flabbergasted! My gast has never been so flabbered!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775

    No idea how Biden puts his country back together again.



    The authorities need to take serious action about those targetting elected officials.
    Yeh. Starting with the current President.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,846
    Scott_xP said:
    Thats how the free market works.

    Sorry and all that
  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    .

    With respect Alastair what's the point in scoring Brexit?

    Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.

    Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.

    Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:

    If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

    Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.

    At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.

    It was from Sunday, before the large centres opened on Monday. Its needs to be triple 160k a day, but it was Sunday and before we really got.cracking on the expansion of capacity (7 large centres.open, government want 50 in next few weeks).

    Are you sure? The values published today against 11.01.2020 surely show the number of vaccinations carried out yesterday, the 11th. Or are you saying there are two days lag in reporting?
    It'll be like how cases and deaths are reported. Some sites will be quick to report, some slow. The chance of the numbers being fully up to date must be near zero.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302

    No idea how Biden puts his country back together again.



    The authorities need to take serious action about those targetting elected officials.
    Yeh. Starting with the current President.
    It coming.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,280
    Scott_xP said:
    You would have thought that by now politicians would have realised we have noticed that 'clear' is code for 'confused and unclear' and would have thought of another way around the problem.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 50,909
    Scott_xP said:
    What exactly is the screening just prior to entering the chamber supposed to solve? If someone with a gun who isn't supposed to have one is already that far it is too late.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349
    Scott_xP said:
    Potentially smart politics.

    A bit like Starmer kicking British Trump (Corbyn) out of the Labour Party, but only after he'd gotten control over the party himself.

    Mitch must be absolutely fuming not just about the invasian of the Capitol but also about how Trump's antics have gifted the Democrats the Senate's two Georgia seats. Had it not been for Trump's post-election meltdown antics then Mitch would still be Senate Majority Leader on 20 January.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 53,302
    BBC News - Capitol riots: Trump says his speech was totally appropriate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55638017
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,280
    12 full days into a project designed to point a new direction for 67 million people, with a multiplicity of views and interests, for many decades and where policies will take years to develop, implement and come to fruition may be a little early for marking the scorecard, especially as that 12 days has been marked by the high point of a worldwide pandemic.

    That is not the same as agreeing with the direction. 'Norway for Now' was always the best option to my mind.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 6,266
    I’m amazed at the complacency over vaccination numbers. Way, way too low. Think limited overs cricket, every day we undershoot the required rate goes up. Just 145k today. Nowhere near enough, no excuses.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920
    edited January 12
    Scott_xP said:
    Thats the reason that delaying the elections is being floated. The Tories know the Holyrood elections will be a heffalump trap for them.
  • Brexit? Can't score it yet. We left nearly a year ago. We've had a "deal" for almost a fortnight, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in.

    Fun times ahead ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312

    With respect Alastair what's the point in scoring Brexit?

    Hardliners on both sides will always disagree. Plus, what's done is done - it's not going to change anytime soon.

    Furthermore, there's a far more pressing issue at the moment. Vaccinations.

    Re-posted from the deathbed of the previous thread:

    If I have understood this correctly 165,844 vaccinations were carried out yesterday.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

    Is that good or bad at this stage? Feels ok to me considering we're still ramping up, provided the average daily numbers keep escalating.

    At this rate it would take 20 months to complete the 100m or so shots required to give the vast majority in the UK two shots but it's going to (have to) get a lot faster for sure.

    It was from Sunday, before the large centres opened on Monday. Its needs to be triple 160k a day, but it was Sunday and before we really got.cracking on the expansion of capacity (7 large centres.open, government want 50 in next few weeks).

    Are you sure? The values published today against 11.01.2020 surely show the number of vaccinations carried out yesterday, the 11th. Or are you saying there are two days lag in reporting?
    Somebody posted here earlier that in the pdf it says from x December to 10th Jan. There is no automated system, so takes time at the moment to enter all the data into the system from paper records.

    Its like deaths at the beginning, often a significant lag. Still the case with tests.
    Ok thanks. I can;t find that pdf but I did find this on the website:

    "People who have received vaccinations, by report date (daily)

    Number of people who have received a COVID-19 vaccination, by day on which the vaccine was reported.

    Data are reported daily, and include all vaccination events that are entered on the relevant system at the time of extract. Data are presented for vaccinations carried out up to and including the end of the report date."


    My take is that the cumulative figures for 11/1/20 (published today) include all the vaccination stats entered into the system yesterday, so include most of Monday's actual vaccinations.

    Let's see if there's a big jump in numbers tomorrow.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,791
    Scott_xP said:
    Exclusive footage of Johnson and Gove giving the union a push.

    image
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 15,312

    Scott_xP said:
    Thats how the free market works.

    Sorry and all that

    ... which is obviously much worse than a free single market.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 47,349

    I’m amazed at the complacency over vaccination numbers. Way, way too low. Think limited overs cricket, every day we undershoot the required rate goes up. Just 145k today. Nowhere near enough, no excuses.

    The vaccination centres aren't all open yet.

    Limited overs cricket is a good example, you always score at a faster in the final overs than the first few overs, so long as in the first few overs you can secure a good foundation and not get caught out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920

    I’m amazed at the complacency over vaccination numbers. Way, way too low. Think limited overs cricket, every day we undershoot the required rate goes up. Just 145k today. Nowhere near enough, no excuses.

    Mostly supply problems still. Not much point in going on about it until the promised stock arrives.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775

    Scott_xP said:
    Potentially smart politics.

    A bit like Starmer kicking British Trump (Corbyn) out of the Labour Party, but only after he'd gotten control over the party himself.

    Mitch must be absolutely fuming not just about the invasian of the Capitol but also about how Trump's antics have gifted the Democrats the Senate's two Georgia seats. Had it not been for Trump's post-election meltdown antics then Mitch would still be Senate Majority Leader on 20 January.
    Yep. From the article it sounds like Trump losing the Senate was the last straw for mcConnell.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,352

    BBC News - Capitol riots: Trump says his speech was totally appropriate
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55638017

    Listened to him earlier - sounded like...

    "no VIOLENCE against SCHUMER AND PELOSI they ROBBED US"
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 13,182

    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    Arla is German. I thought most of the milk came from the UK, but could be wrong.
    Danish.
    Oh, thanks for the correction.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 38,775
    Scott_xP said:
    Nothing like pouring petrol on a burning building.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 467
    edited January 12

    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    You mean the supermarkets rather than keeping shelves empty long term are addressing the issue by changing the layout of the shelves and filling the gaps with other products?

    I'm flabbergasted! My gast has never been so flabbered!
    I suspect that's it, in part anyway. You have to hand it to supermarkets , generally really really good at what they do. I'm pleased because I got hacked off with the 'oh my god the shelves are empty stories' Ok, so some stuff was undoubtedly short but its not a crisis by any means, plus the Christmas to New year transition period seemed to catch them out for supply. I suspect within a four weeks this will die down and without snap and put on twitter empty shelf pics, people will notice less even if a few lines get dropped out for a while.

    @Mortimer, there may be routing of supply chains so there is increased use of ROI . There is a fair integration piece there, some of big UK chains are present North & South and Ireland's agri-food industry as a whole is sizeable. I am fortunate in that I don't mind good old cows milk at all but I know it doesn't work that way for everyone.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 22,548
    Hahahahaha

    Meeks once again claiming to speak for Leavers and not having the first clue what he is actually talking about.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 63,352
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Thats the reason that delaying the elections is being floated. The Tories know the Holyrood elections will be a heffalump trap for them.
    It's bizarre we're considering postponing elections again, plans to make them all postal should have been set in motion after they were delayed last year.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 8,498
    Scott_xP said:
    No! The embarrassment is purely for the Republican party that its 20 and not 200 voting for impeachment. Trump does not do embarrassment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 20,920

    Brexit? Can't score it yet. We left nearly a year ago. We've had a "deal" for almost a fortnight, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in.

    Fun times ahead ;)

    I think undeniably Brexit has been delivered, a bit late and shop soiled, but delivered.

    The real question is whether the issues that drove it are addressed, and for that it is too early to say.

    This map of social disintegration of community is not completely identical to the map of Leaverstan, but there is a strong family resemblance. We now get to see how Brexit solves those issues. My hunch is that it will accelerate the social discontent.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 893
    FOUR countries have registered over 1000 daily deaths today:

    USA, Brazil, UK, Germany

    I'm not sure, but this may be a melancholy First
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 36,845

    Hahahahaha

    Meeks once again claiming to speak for Leavers and not having the first clue what he is actually talking about.

    It just keeps alive the memory of that wonderful night in June 2016 every time he tries.
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