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Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Roger said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    But the police have treated it as if it was illegal.

    Oh and made coffee by itself a substantial meal - given that coffee = a picnic
    Did the Police start setting the law instead of Parliament?

    Seems like a reason to criticise the Police for overstepping not for lawmakers for following the actual law.

    The law no more says you can only exercise within walking distance of your house than it says you can only shop walking distance of your house.
    The official guidance is that:
    You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home
    He lives in London, he was exercising in a park in London. Local.

    My most local part of town only has a Co-op, is that the only place I'm permitted to shop? If I want to go shopping in the Asda at the other side of town instead then am I in breach of the law? Since that's in a different Council.
    How long are you going to follow Johnson around with a fire extinguisher before you run out of energy?
    A brush and shovel might be more useful.
  • johnt said:

    John Boy calling for urgent action from the government about a situation brought about by the government.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1349242523206737920?s=21

    The Tories won an election saying they would sign a deal which was clearly going to deliver this outcome. They then signed the deal. It seems a bit late to be moaning that they are getting what they voted for.

    The more troublesome problem for the Tories is the sell out of the fishermen which is not going down well in the fishing areas. Fishermen have not only been given the catch they believe they were told they would get but they are also seeing stocks going to rot as the mountain of paperwork leaves their main market effectively closed to them.
    That's the government's problem. They have delivered roughly the Vote Leave plan from 2016. Their problem is that at least some of the problems (foreseeable, foreseen, confidently denied) look like coming in as well.

    In 1990, the Conservative government delivered on its manifesto commitment to introduce the Community Charge. That delivery did not work out to their advantage, even as it was reversed.

    And if Johnson's Brexit turns out to be a temporary aberration, the long term costs will be bigger. Some of the lost business won't return, even if the UK did return to the EU...
    The UK won't return to the EU, and by trying to inflate that particular mental dinghy, you're just making yourself feel worse.
    I haven't said we will. I don't know what will happen next. Maybe this will turn out to be a roaring success.

    But suppose it doesn't. What should the UK do then?

    And why are some early Brexit supporters so determined to insist that this decision, uniquely amongst political decisions, is irreversible and never to be discussed again?
    We would end up in EEA or similar if Brexit is as damaging as many expect, not full membership. Or if its longer term, ideally the EU creates formal multiple tiered levels of membership and we could join at a looser level.
    I agree that's a likely next step, but I can't see pay/obey/no real say being a stable position either.

    But even that's years off.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Story in the Courier yesterday showed that Scotland had 2.99% of the population inoculated compared with 4.15% in England and 4.85% in NI. Only the perpetual laggards in Wales are doing worse at 2.73%. Gove pointed out that the Scottish government had been given 500k more doses of vaccine than it had used. Jennie Freeman (health minister) denied that but Sturgeon subsequently admitted that this number was "broadly accurate".

    The rate of vaccination in Scotland still needs to significantly more than doubled if the somewhat modest targets are to be met. Last week Scotland managed to inoculate 7,143 a day. They will need to increase that by 11,756 to meet their targets.

    I am not sure why this would be. It may be that the bigger focus on care homes slows things down a bit because it is not as fast as it would be running a conventional clinic. It may be that the Scottish NHS is just a bit more bureaucratic and has been slow to address the urgency (they never really kept up with England on testing either). What is crystal clear is that accelerating the roll out is absolutely critical to Scotland's recovery. Boris is right to be on the warpath with the English NHS as reported in the FT. Sturgeon needs to be doing likewise.

    I am broadly in favour of comparison for rollout for the vaccine - however we should acknowledge the hindrances such as geography in Scotland and I assume high levels of self isolation of staff in Wales.

    I am not in favour of comparative death rates without much more analysis and consideration. Were we better at keeping people alive with severe respiratory diseases before the crisis? If so this would have a big impact on excess deaths. How healthy were the rest of the cohort of susceptible people? This would be so diverse over a range of countries that it would need proper investigation and analysis. This is not to say that mistakes were not made around discharge from hospitals into care home for example.
    I think if the discrepancy grows any larger than this it risks becoming a hot political potato for Sturgeon. Whilst the geography point is true this is reflected in higher NHS spending in Scotland meaning that there should be more capacity.
    Hope springs eternal.

    Any view on Gordon Brown’s new caper Our Scottish Future? Using Hugh ‘there will be no second wave, Scotland may not need a vaccine’ Pennington as a mouthpiece to attack the Scottish government over COVID doesn’t seem an optimal move.
    Not impinged on my consciousness yet, sorry. No doubt it proves independence is inevitable, or something.
    Och, chin up, all is not lost!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited January 2021

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Teesside? Barnard Castle is on the banks of the Tees...
    Rumour has it, it's Darlington or at Teesside airport.

    Darlington has the advantage that it's close to posher places in North Yorkshire than say Boro and has excellent connection options (East Coast mainline, motorway and an airport).
    I'm assuming it'll be Teesside Airport:
    1. Infamously nationalised by Tory Mayor Ben Houchen
    2. Lots of hot air about new flights and destinations
    3. Neither the airport nor the airlines can actually make money (which is why the flights all stopped last time)
    4. A business park on the south part of the site has been mooted a lot and kills lots of birds:
    * Puts 22k Treasury officials on Tory Teesside
    * Makes London - Teesside Airport flights viable
    * Airport makes a profit, flights come back, Tories cemented into place in Darlo / Stockton etc
    I do think you are right - the issue is that the journey to and from the airport is a mare at anything approaching rush hour - although the northern bypass should fix some of those issues.

    I should also emphasis I'm biased here - Teesside airport is brilliant for european flights - I used to be able to set off less than an hour before the Schiphol flight and get to most places in europe by Monday lunchtime.
    The easy solution to the traffic issue is to add northern slips to the A1/A66(M) junction and dual the A66 southern bypass. Send all the traffic round the existing route.
    Strangely in all the discussions regarding improvements round here that improvement is never discussed which is weird considering the immediate solutions it would create and the little money that would be involved compared with other options.

    But I don't think it opens up any development land which probably explains the lack of interest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Except every one of you railing against promoting our being number one would be screaming "useless fuckers!!" if we were in the relegation zone.

    We know you would.

    And heaven help us if Scotland were more successful in getting its population vaccinated than England. That wouldn't be a contest where you'd be chanting "Scotland's number one, Scotland's number one." No sirreeeee.....
    Triggered..
    Lazy.
    Hey, when you get 3 patriotic parrots in quick succession, what’s a boy to do?
    Touche.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Scott_xP said:
    "He agrees that images of hampers being shared on Twitter are unacceptable....."

    So he's having a word with Twitter about blocking those images.... :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,361
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Except every one of you railing against promoting our being number one would be screaming "useless fuckers!!" if we were in the relegation zone.

    We know you would.

    And heaven help us if Scotland were more successful in getting its population vaccinated than England. That wouldn't be a contest where you'd be chanting "Scotland's number one, Scotland's number one." No sirreeeee.....
    Triggered..
    Lazy.
    He's saying 'Triggered' a lot because he himself has been triggered over the fact this is a wholehearted British success story, and so he wants to draw others onto his own territory instead.

    Scottish Nationalists know that if they were in the EU they'd (still) be waiting for a vaccine, rather than benefiting from the UK Government's foresightedness and superb pharmaceutical industry, hence the attacks.

    He feels vulnerable.
    Ooh, I love a bit of amateur psychology in the morning!

    My amateur diagnosis is that having a pretty pishy go at someone in the third person via a third party shows you’re a bit of a fearty.
    So are you triggered by him being triggered that your triggered by him being triggered by..... ?

    I really wish everyone here would take an hour and read
    https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/notes-on-nationalism/

    And I mean *everyone*
    That's a very prescriptive definition of nationalism.
    And with all respect to Orwell, GK Chesterton's relevance to the 21st century is considerably slimmer than was Mr Chesterton.
    I find it quite easy to translate from his time to ours. He is describing, among other things, the way that the feelings/mindset we think of as nationalism as move up from the tribe, to the county, to the country and then to supra-national structure.

    And how the thought process of nationalism effects the actions of the nationalist.

    Replace Chesterton's Political Catholicism with (say) Progressive Internationalism to see this. Or EU Nationalism.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    But the police have treated it as if it was illegal.

    Oh and made coffee by itself a substantial meal - given that coffee = a picnic
    Did the Police start setting the law instead of Parliament?

    Seems like a reason to criticise the Police for overstepping not for lawmakers for following the actual law.

    The law no more says you can only exercise within walking distance of your house than it says you can only shop walking distance of your house.
    The official guidance is that:
    You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home
    He lives in London, he was exercising in a park in London. Local.

    My most local part of town only has a Co-op, is that the only place I'm permitted to shop? If I want to go shopping in the Asda at the other side of town instead then am I in breach of the law? Since that's in a different Council.

    In Wales entering a different Council was a crime - I'm aware of people who have been fined for doing so and I'm sure BigG has also mentioned examples.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    HYUFD said:

    Labour controlled Exeter council votes to remove statute of General Buller


    https://twitter.com/_SaveOurStatues/status/1349137277956591621?s=20

    Democratic decision making in action.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Brom said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/12/hate-admit-eurosceptic-father-right-brexit/

    Good to see the gradual conversion of the People's Vote troops.

    Was a time Remainers used to calculate how many Leavers would have died by now - and how they would just have to wait for s to die out before their rejoining was assured.

    Maybe we should mark that down as another 0/10?

    No good for me squire, I suspect I'll shuffle off before most of the PB Brexiteers who appear considerably younger than myself. The Bill Cash style fightback has started.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244

    Very surprised by the complacency on here regarding vaccination rates. The Independent is absolutely right to splash on the story. Keeping the focus on the programme, and the pressure on the government, is precisely what the press should be doing.

    Makes a worthy change from inane yarns about bike rides and blonde Derbyshire tea-drinkers.

    Is there a link to this Independent "splash" on vaccine rates?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,478

    johnt said:

    John Boy calling for urgent action from the government about a situation brought about by the government.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1349242523206737920?s=21

    The Tories won an election saying they would sign a deal which was clearly going to deliver this outcome. They then signed the deal. It seems a bit late to be moaning that they are getting what they voted for.

    The more troublesome problem for the Tories is the sell out of the fishermen which is not going down well in the fishing areas. Fishermen have not only been given the catch they believe they were told they would get but they are also seeing stocks going to rot as the mountain of paperwork leaves their main market effectively closed to them.
    That's the government's problem. They have delivered roughly the Vote Leave plan from 2016. Their problem is that at least some of the problems (foreseeable, foreseen, confidently denied) look like coming in as well.

    In 1990, the Conservative government delivered on its manifesto commitment to introduce the Community Charge. That delivery did not work out to their advantage, even as it was reversed.

    And if Johnson's Brexit turns out to be a temporary aberration, the long term costs will be bigger. Some of the lost business won't return, even if the UK did return to the EU...
    The UK won't return to the EU, and by trying to inflate that particular mental dinghy, you're just making yourself feel worse.
    I haven't said we will. I don't know what will happen next. Maybe this will turn out to be a roaring success.

    But suppose it doesn't. What should the UK do then?

    And why are some early Brexit supporters so determined to insist that this decision, uniquely amongst political decisions, is irreversible and never to be discussed again?
    Just trying to offer some well meaning advice.

    It might be a useful mental exercise to work out what it would be that you'd like about rejoining - how you think it would make you feel. Part of the European family again? Respected amongst our peers? Contributing to the global conversation? Showing an appreciation for European culture? If you could isolate that, you might find that none of those things are actually lost.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,803

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    What matters is that 'it is a story'. Boris's fault is that he didn't have the nouse to realise it might be a hostage to fortune.

    Now you might argue that I am using hindsight in that opinion, but I don't think so. I would put more in the bleeding obvious category.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,478

    Scott_xP said:
    "He agrees that images of hampers being shared on Twitter are unacceptable....."

    So he's having a word with Twitter about blocking those images.... :)
    'This claim about the number of apples in the food box is disputed'
  • Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,214

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    "When in doubt Republican senators tend to follow their leader. And Mr McConnell, not Mr Trump, is their leader."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/mitch-mcconnells-cold-fury-means-donald-trump-could-convicted/

    Trump's going down folks. Happy days!

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1349138131233222661
    Agree with Dan on this. In the end, only one GOP member of the House voted for the (milder) resolution requesting Pence to act. Republicans will generally do just enough to give themselves an "ultimately a good guy" ticket, while arguing that anything substantive would be distressingly divisive, time to move on, etc

    It might change a few months down the line if Trump really pushes the "leader in exile" thing and starts demanding primary deselection for everyone except his loyalists. There would come a point when Republicans decide he needs to be squashed - but right now they reckon they can get away "Hey, he'll be gone this month, let's not aggravate things further". It's even arguable that they're right in terms of US political stability, not creating martyrs etc.
    If he is impeached and found guilty he cannot run for president again. That`s the big plus - at least from many perspectives. Looking at it from the perspective of the Dem Party, however, it would be good for them if Trump did run again wouldn`t it?
    Maybe, maybe not.

    Trump has the diehard fans who will turnout to vote for him no matter what that Pence or Cruz or Haley would not have if they were the GOP nominee in 2024 instead of him, however they also have fewer voters who would turn out to vote against them than Trump would, except maybe Cruz.
    Trump's a goner but a Dem dream scenario for 24 could be a 3rd party run from somebody endorsed by him. Such a person imo would have to have the surname Trump. I don't see it myself but it can't be ruled out.

    But I'm not thinking that much about Trump any more. Not my focus. What I'm thinking about is Dominic Raab. How popular is he, would you say, with the Tory grassroots?
    I hear that the Dover Branch of the Conservative Party isn't aware that Dominic Raab has an important job in government.
    And therefore perhaps haven't quite appreciated that people like me - well maybe just me at this point - have decided that since Sunak is a bubble, Hunt is a Remainer, Patel is unthinkable, and Gove is Gove, there is a need to give Dim Dom serious consideration in the market for next Con leader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021

    OllyT said:

    Who do we think the holy 17 Republican Senators might be then?

    I've seen two definites on here this morning, and three more probables.

    The rest?

    (PS. Success also depends on Pelosi and her acolytes making this all about America and her constitution, with precisely zero partisan attacks on the Reps and Democrat grandstanding - I'm not holding my breath on that.)

    Much as it would be satisfying to see Trump impeached I'd prefer him to be free to stand in 2024.

    It would cause a major headache for the GOP, the primaries will tear them apart. If he wins I think the Democrats will walk it and if he loses he will probably go on to stand as an independent and the Democrats will walk it.

    The GOP really is stuck between a rock and a hard place and that's exactly where they deserve to be for not standing up to Trump till it was too late.
    No, this goes beyond partisan advantage.

    I've come round to impeachment in the last few days. The Rubicon has been crossed and I think it's better if both sides bilaterally impeach him.

    Ideally 100-0.
    I'm still not confident they will but it is in everyone's interests.

    One, he definitely deserves it, and two he will never show contrition. He will cause more damage unless he faces consequences, immediate consequences beyond his wallet. Legal cases will take years and he'll never see the inside of a cell.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221

    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Who do we think the holy 17 Republican Senators might be then?

    I've seen two definites on here this morning, and three more probables.

    The rest?

    (PS. Success also depends on Pelosi and her acolytes making this all about America and her constitution, with precisely zero partisan attacks on the Reps and Democrat grandstanding - I'm not holding my breath on that.)

    I doubt we'll get 17 but will be pleasantly surprised.

    I love the idea that if it fails it is Pelosi's fault.
    Rather than work behind the scenes with Republican senators first, and line them up first before going public, she decided to initiate it herself at a mini press conference and threaten unilateral Democrat action unless the Republicans fell into line. She knows full well that it will start in the House almost automatically due to the Dems being in control and only a simply majority needed, but it's the Senate where it actually happens. And she needs the Republicans on side.

    Of course I give some blame to Pelosi. I also blame numbskull Republican Senators too, but given she knows that she has (yet again) played the ultra-partisan game for which she's well-known rather than act skilfully and constructively to build an alliance in the greater interests of the republic and its constitution.
    I simply don't buy that.
    The Republican Senate has enabled Trump for the last four years, and they needed publicly to be put on the spot over this. The signs were many of them would otherwise have sat on their hands.

    Pretending a consensus which doesn't exist is just ridiculous - and in any event, once it reaches the Senate, it is completely out of Pelosi's hands.

    That's not how politics works. You need to do the deal behind the scenes and present a united front on a subject such as this. If she'd tried and then failed, she could then go public - sure - but she's decided to proceed with an ultimatum. And the jurisdiction thing is a cop-out. She sits in the Capitol and is perfectly able to speak to both the majority and minority leaders in the Senate, as well as swing senators, and discuss the whole process.

    She's as aggressive and partisan as many Republicans, and playing to her base just as they are.

    It's a real problem the USA has.
    There is no need for any deal behind the scenes.
    The House will pass articles of impeachment, with a number of Republican votes in favour. That much seems entirely clear.

    House mangers present the case for impeachment in the Senate, where Senators effectively act as jury in the case. A deal behind the scenes seems somewhat antithetical to that procedure.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    johnt said:

    John Boy calling for urgent action from the government about a situation brought about by the government.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1349242523206737920?s=21

    The Tories won an election saying they would sign a deal which was clearly going to deliver this outcome. They then signed the deal. It seems a bit late to be moaning that they are getting what they voted for.

    The more troublesome problem for the Tories is the sell out of the fishermen which is not going down well in the fishing areas. Fishermen have not only been given the catch they believe they were told they would get but they are also seeing stocks going to rot as the mountain of paperwork leaves their main market effectively closed to them.
    That's the government's problem. They have delivered roughly the Vote Leave plan from 2016. Their problem is that at least some of the problems (foreseeable, foreseen, confidently denied) look like coming in as well.

    In 1990, the Conservative government delivered on its manifesto commitment to introduce the Community Charge. That delivery did not work out to their advantage, even as it was reversed.

    And if Johnson's Brexit turns out to be a temporary aberration, the long term costs will be bigger. Some of the lost business won't return, even if the UK did return to the EU...
    The UK won't return to the EU, and by trying to inflate that particular mental dinghy, you're just making yourself feel worse.
    I haven't said we will. I don't know what will happen next. Maybe this will turn out to be a roaring success.

    But suppose it doesn't. What should the UK do then?

    And why are some early Brexit supporters so determined to insist that this decision, uniquely amongst political decisions, is irreversible and never to be discussed again?
    If you think we didn't get a good deal leaving, then I imagine we would get a worse deal for rejoining
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited January 2021

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.

    Edit - in fairness, that's not quite what he said. He said he wanted to use externally set papers in the process, rather than full blown exams where they are set, sat and assessed externally.

    https://feweek.co.uk/2021/01/13/williamson-writes-to-ofqual-about-summer-exam-replacements/
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    I've been thinking about the vaccine design.

    Simple evolutionary theory would suggest that if the virus mutates to a form that is more transmissible, all other things being equal, it will have an evolutionary advantage. The spike protein is the bit of the virus that binds to human cells, the first stage in successful transmission. So mutations in the spike protein that result is greater transmissibility are a predictable development. All the current viruses have been developed to target the virus spike protein. The very bit of the virus that could have been predicted to mutate for evolutionary advantage - and therefore risk vaccine escape?

    I think that the spike protein was chosen as the target for vaccines because it was a relatively simple to design vaccines to target this bit of the virus. But was it the best choice or strategy, given the above?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    But the police have treated it as if it was illegal.

    Oh and made coffee by itself a substantial meal - given that coffee = a picnic
    Did the Police start setting the law instead of Parliament?

    Seems like a reason to criticise the Police for overstepping not for lawmakers for following the actual law.

    The law no more says you can only exercise within walking distance of your house than it says you can only shop walking distance of your house.
    The official guidance is that:
    You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home
    He lives in London, he was exercising in a park in London. Local.

    My most local part of town only has a Co-op, is that the only place I'm permitted to shop? If I want to go shopping in the Asda at the other side of town instead then am I in breach of the law? Since that's in a different Council.
    How long are you going to follow Johnson around with a fire extinguisher before you run out of energy?
    A brush and shovel might be more useful.
    And a pack of condoms
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    The man's a menace. But his boss still supports him, which is worse.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,214
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Williamson clearly wanted to keep the schools open right to the end. Johnson wanted this too until he didn`t.

    Williamson has been undermined by Johnson but as he is still in post cannot say this. Some mealy-mouthed waffle to follow I predict.
    Yep. Pisspoor minister but not making the big calls. 75% of the shit heaped upon him should in truth be scraped up, shoveled into a large container, and emptied over the head of one "Boris" Johnson.
    Listening to him is still very bad for my blood pressure.

    Edit - Halfon just pointed out that Williamson is contradicting earlier evidence to the committee that schools were a marginal factor of transmission. Now he's claiming they were...and he's waffling in response.
    I bet. And don't get me wrong, I don't feel sorry for him. I just don't want to see Johnson (again) escaping responsibility. It's a theme.
  • ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Not sure about this story. The announcement was that GCSE and ALevel exams will not be sat - not that there will be no exams at all.

    Edit: see below,

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-to-sit-mini-summer-exams-marked-by-their-own-teachers-vml307tqg
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
    Well, that's not news is it? The rate we're vaccinating, we'll be lucky if we're back properly by Easter.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,478
    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...
    Glad you agree - food boxes and schools are far more effective stories, itd be crazy to help the government by focusing on that trivial one instead.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Roger said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    But the police have treated it as if it was illegal.

    Oh and made coffee by itself a substantial meal - given that coffee = a picnic
    Did the Police start setting the law instead of Parliament?

    Seems like a reason to criticise the Police for overstepping not for lawmakers for following the actual law.

    The law no more says you can only exercise within walking distance of your house than it says you can only shop walking distance of your house.
    The official guidance is that:
    You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home
    He lives in London, he was exercising in a park in London. Local.

    My most local part of town only has a Co-op, is that the only place I'm permitted to shop? If I want to go shopping in the Asda at the other side of town instead then am I in breach of the law? Since that's in a different Council.
    How long are you going to follow Johnson around with a fire extinguisher before you run out of energy?
    More like a man with a s**t shovel following a rag and bone man's horse and cart.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    stjohn said:

    I've been thinking about the vaccine design.

    Simple evolutionary theory would suggest that if the virus mutates to a form that is more transmissible, all other things being equal, it will have an evolutionary advantage. The spike protein is the bit of the virus that binds to human cells, the first stage in successful transmission. So mutations in the spike protein that result is greater transmissibility are a predictable development. All the current viruses have been developed to target the virus spike protein. The very bit of the virus that could have been predicted to mutate for evolutionary advantage - and therefore risk vaccine escape?

    I think that the spike protein was chosen as the target for vaccines because it was a relatively simple to design vaccines to target this bit of the virus. But was it the best choice or strategy, given the above?

    Its beyond my ability, but wasnt there a story that scientists believed they could tweak the relevant element pretty quickly if needed?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
    Well, that's not news is it? The rate we're vaccinating, we'll be lucky if we're back properly by Easter.
    Year 11 and 13 are probably not going back at any point.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    Latest Scottish vaccination figures from the BBC live text feed:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-55573649

    Vaccination programme - update on figures
    Overall a total of 191,965 people have now received their first dose of a coronavirus vaccination, and 2,990 have received their second dose as of 08:30 this morning.

    Vaccination in Scotland began on 8 December with those in care homes and health and social care staff.

    The health secretary said 80% of care home residents and 55% of care home staff had received their first dose of the vaccination.

    Just under 52% of frontline NHS and social care staff have now been vaccinated too.

    Vaccinating those over 80 who live in the community began eight days ago and now 2% of that group has received their first injection.

    The vaccination programme will "scale up rapidly from this week", Ms Freeman added.

    She promises that by the first week in February 100% of the people in the above groups will have received a first dose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Williamson clearly wanted to keep the schools open right to the end. Johnson wanted this too until he didn`t.

    Williamson has been undermined by Johnson but as he is still in post cannot say this. Some mealy-mouthed waffle to follow I predict.
    Yep. Pisspoor minister but not making the big calls. 75% of the shit heaped upon him should in truth be scraped up, shoveled into a large container, and emptied over the head of one "Boris" Johnson.
    Listening to him is still very bad for my blood pressure.

    Edit - Halfon just pointed out that Williamson is contradicting earlier evidence to the committee that schools were a marginal factor of transmission. Now he's claiming they were...and he's waffling in response.
    It's entirely clear from earlier evidence that government was at best disingenuous, and more likely lying outright about this for some time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    Quite right. The only way I would derive satisfaction from senior government ministers suffering at the hands of police whilst exercising their legal rights would be if the political messaging had been in such a state of confused flux that few people really knew what they were supposed to do or avoid doing.

    Luckily for the country, that is far from the situation.
    What do you mean by confused flux? Do you mean that police messaging has changed to reflect revised guidance? Do you mean that whilst economically keeping businesses open is prudent it makes it difficult for police to manage? Or have the Police been particularly inept in a way that I don't know about?
    I said political messaging, not police messaging.
    I thought that was quite funny.

    The silly journo did not even take the most pleasant route that would be used for a weekend ride.
  • Stocky said:

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Not sure about this story. The announcement was that GCSE and ALevel exams will not be sat - not that there will be no exams at all.

    Edit: see below,

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pupils-to-sit-mini-summer-exams-marked-by-their-own-teachers-vml307tqg
    But the plans were denounced and are unworkable, from your link.

    Teenagers who were due to sit their GCSEs and A-levels this summer will face some form of test this year, the exam regulator Ofqual is expected to announce this week.

    Under the proposals, children will sit tests or “mini” exams in schools, to be marked by their teachers. The tests, which will be devised by exam boards, are likely to be taken late in the summer term, when it is hoped that coronavirus infection rates will have died down enough for schools to be fully reopened.

    There would also be internal assessments set by teachers in some subjects, including the chance for children to submit porfolios of work completed in the past two years.

    If schools do not reopen as planned, children may have to do the tests at home, raising the prospect of their having to produce important work from their bedroom, kitchen table or elsewhere.

    Neither the tests nor the internal assessments will have to be taken on a single date across the nation. It is not known how examiners will be able to stop children simply telling one another what is in the papers, if they are held on different dates in different schools.


    When I was doing my A Levels I had three exams scheduled on one day, and two were set to clash.

    I was given the option of sitting all three in one day or doing two in one day and one the next day.

    My teachers advised me to spread them over two days, so I did, that involved me having to spend the night at a teachers house so they could monitor me to make sure I didn't speak to my friends who sat the further Maths exam that I was to do in the morning.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
    Well, that's not news is it? The rate we're vaccinating, we'll be lucky if we're back properly by Easter.
    Year 11 and 13 are probably not going back at any point.
    On the contrary, the proposal at this moment is to keep them in until July so they can gather more assessment data.
  • She's just not understood this great deal properly.

    https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1349289771802259456?s=20
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902
    edited January 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    It shows the story has got "legs". Its not just Johnson or even the Tories that fuel the story - two local ones up here of a similar "do what we say not what we do" ilk-

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19000892.council-boss-issues-stay-home-warning-holiday-maldives/
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19005450.complaint-made-councillor-living-french-holiday-home/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
    LOL at the 'could happen to all schools' headline. Self-debunking in the 2nd sentence:

    "Education Secretary admitted there could still be "some areas of particular concern" where schools will have to stay shut."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,214
    edited January 2021

    kle4 said:

    A good deal lower would be my immediate response.
    https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1349265077288001536?s=21

    Except every one of you railing against promoting our being number one would be screaming "useless fuckers!!" if we were in the relegation zone.

    We know you would.

    And heaven help us if Scotland were more successful in getting its population vaccinated than England. That wouldn't be a contest where you'd be chanting "Scotland's number one, Scotland's number one." No sirreeeee.....
    Triggered..
    Lazy.
    He's saying 'Triggered' a lot because he himself has been triggered over the fact this is a wholehearted British success story, and so he wants to draw others onto his own territory instead.

    Scottish Nationalists know that if they were in the EU they'd (still) be waiting for a vaccine, rather than benefiting from the UK Government's foresightedness and superb pharmaceutical industry, hence the attacks.

    He feels vulnerable.
    Ooh, I love a bit of amateur psychology in the morning!

    My amateur diagnosis is that having a pretty pishy go at someone in the third person via a third party shows you’re a bit of a fearty.
    So are you triggered by him being triggered that your triggered by him being triggered by..... ?

    I really wish everyone here would take an hour and read
    https://www.orwellfoundation.com/the-orwell-foundation/orwell/essays-and-other-works/notes-on-nationalism/

    And I mean *everyone*
    Thank you for your generous urge to enlighten and educate, but I’ve read the piece several times over the years.

    I’d say Orwell’s many acute points are somewhat blunted by his inclination to distinguish between patriotism (a quality apparently of ordinary English people) and nationalism (a vice of the English intelligentsia); there seems to me a kind of sentimentality in that. Also Orwell’s reluctance to distinguish between England and Britain/the UK (not uncommon then or now) is uncharacteristically imprecise.
    Mmm, "good" patriotism vs "bad" nationalism. Hard to define the difference yet easy to recognize it in practice. For me, there are a couple of good rules of thumb. If a person self proclaims as A patriot - the noun - they are likely to be dodgy. And if they get animated about a perceived "lack of patriotism" in others, ditto - likely to be dodgeballs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Williamson clearly wanted to keep the schools open right to the end. Johnson wanted this too until he didn`t.

    Williamson has been undermined by Johnson but as he is still in post cannot say this. Some mealy-mouthed waffle to follow I predict.
    Yep. Pisspoor minister but not making the big calls. 75% of the shit heaped upon him should in truth be scraped up, shoveled into a large container, and emptied over the head of one "Boris" Johnson.
    Listening to him is still very bad for my blood pressure.

    Edit - Halfon just pointed out that Williamson is contradicting earlier evidence to the committee that schools were a marginal factor of transmission. Now he's claiming they were...and he's waffling in response.
    It's entirely clear from earlier evidence that government was at best disingenuous, and more likely lying outright about this for some time.
    It's been entirely clear to me since October that they were lying.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    It shows the story has got "legs". Its not just Johnson or even the Tories that fuel the story - two local ones up here of a similar "do what we say not what we do" ilk-

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19000892.council-boss-issues-stay-home-warning-holiday-maldives/
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19005450.complaint-made-councillor-living-french-holiday-home/
    Those two are a tiny bit different than going on a bike ride, don't you think?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,803

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    You don't think it is a story? The media has been droning on about it endlessly so it clearly is a story. Whether it is fair or not is another matter, but it is a story.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    kle4 said:

    stjohn said:

    I've been thinking about the vaccine design.

    Simple evolutionary theory would suggest that if the virus mutates to a form that is more transmissible, all other things being equal, it will have an evolutionary advantage. The spike protein is the bit of the virus that binds to human cells, the first stage in successful transmission. So mutations in the spike protein that result is greater transmissibility are a predictable development. All the current viruses have been developed to target the virus spike protein. The very bit of the virus that could have been predicted to mutate for evolutionary advantage - and therefore risk vaccine escape?

    I think that the spike protein was chosen as the target for vaccines because it was a relatively simple to design vaccines to target this bit of the virus. But was it the best choice or strategy, given the above?

    Its beyond my ability, but wasnt there a story that scientists believed they could tweak the relevant element pretty quickly if needed?
    Yes. Which is great. But far better to avoid vaccine escape in the first place if that's possible. I don't know if targeting an additional or different part of the virus could have been easily done and effective or not. It just seems logical to me, with what we are seeing, that targeting the spike protein could be problematic for sustained vaccine efficacy.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    But the police have treated it as if it was illegal.

    Oh and made coffee by itself a substantial meal - given that coffee = a picnic
    Did the Police start setting the law instead of Parliament?

    Seems like a reason to criticise the Police for overstepping not for lawmakers for following the actual law.

    The law no more says you can only exercise within walking distance of your house than it says you can only shop walking distance of your house.
    The official guidance is that:
    You can continue to exercise alone, with one other person or with your household or support bubble. This should be limited to once per day, and you should not travel outside your local area.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home
    He lives in London, he was exercising in a park in London. Local.

    My most local part of town only has a Co-op, is that the only place I'm permitted to shop? If I want to go shopping in the Asda at the other side of town instead then am I in breach of the law? Since that's in a different Council.

    In Wales entering a different Council was a crime - I'm aware of people who have been fined for doing so and I'm sure BigG has also mentioned examples.
    Thank goodness Drakeford isn't the Prime Minister then.

    If Drakeford was cycling in a different Council then that would be more newsworthy then.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,803
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    It shows the story has got "legs". Its not just Johnson or even the Tories that fuel the story - two local ones up here of a similar "do what we say not what we do" ilk-

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19000892.council-boss-issues-stay-home-warning-holiday-maldives/
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19005450.complaint-made-councillor-living-french-holiday-home/
    Those two are a tiny bit different than going on a bike ride, don't you think?
    It doesn't matter. What is key is that Boris did not have the common sense to not realise the optics of what he was doing. With all that had gone before how did he not realise this?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
    LOL at the 'could happen to all schools' headline. Self-debunking in the 2nd sentence:

    "Education Secretary admitted there could still be "some areas of particular concern" where schools will have to stay shut."
    At the moment, we are not in a position to reopen, and there is no sign of things improving sufficiently in the next five weeks to let us reopen. It's been complicated because in this evidence to the ESC Williamson has said this testing gimmick he's put in place to fool people into thinking schools are safe will have to be administered by staff, which simply isn't going to happen.

    So it is not 'news' that we are shut for some weeks. I'm guessing now we've got into this situation it will be March before we can reopen (from which point of view the smart thing would be to bring forward the Easter holidays so we can go straight back and right through). It depends on vaccine rollout and how soon we can have vulnerable groups, especially vulnerable parents and teachers, vaccinated.

    That may not be the official line, but short of dramatic improvements we are where we are.

    Now he's struggling on technology as well. Foolish. It would save a fortune to give every child aged 11+ a tablet of some description and do away with exercise books.
  • johnt said:

    John Boy calling for urgent action from the government about a situation brought about by the government.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1349242523206737920?s=21

    The Tories won an election saying they would sign a deal which was clearly going to deliver this outcome. They then signed the deal. It seems a bit late to be moaning that they are getting what they voted for.

    The more troublesome problem for the Tories is the sell out of the fishermen which is not going down well in the fishing areas. Fishermen have not only been given the catch they believe they were told they would get but they are also seeing stocks going to rot as the mountain of paperwork leaves their main market effectively closed to them.
    That's the government's problem. They have delivered roughly the Vote Leave plan from 2016. Their problem is that at least some of the problems (foreseeable, foreseen, confidently denied) look like coming in as well.

    In 1990, the Conservative government delivered on its manifesto commitment to introduce the Community Charge. That delivery did not work out to their advantage, even as it was reversed.

    And if Johnson's Brexit turns out to be a temporary aberration, the long term costs will be bigger. Some of the lost business won't return, even if the UK did return to the EU...
    The UK won't return to the EU, and by trying to inflate that particular mental dinghy, you're just making yourself feel worse.
    I haven't said we will. I don't know what will happen next. Maybe this will turn out to be a roaring success.

    But suppose it doesn't. What should the UK do then?

    And why are some early Brexit supporters so determined to insist that this decision, uniquely amongst political decisions, is irreversible and never to be discussed again?
    Just trying to offer some well meaning advice.

    It might be a useful mental exercise to work out what it would be that you'd like about rejoining - how you think it would make you feel. Part of the European family again? Respected amongst our peers? Contributing to the global conversation? Showing an appreciation for European culture? If you could isolate that, you might find that none of those things are actually lost.
    Thanks for the unsolicited advice.

    Since you ask, all I want is that this decision is as provisional as all other political decisions.

    That I and others, in years to come, have the right to say "That was a bit of a Horlicks, wasn't it? Maybe we should reverse it."

    What are you so keen for people not to have that?
  • She's just not understood this great deal properly.

    https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1349289771802259456?s=20

    She should have listened to the Remain campaign.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,214

    She's just not understood this great deal properly.

    https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1349289771802259456?s=20

    It's one for the tiny violin, I'm afraid.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.

    Edit - in fairness, that's not quite what he said. He said he wanted to use externally set papers in the process, rather than full blown exams where they are set, sat and assessed externally.

    https://feweek.co.uk/2021/01/13/williamson-writes-to-ofqual-about-summer-exam-replacements/
    But they're both cocks.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    A school in a Labour run authority has substandard free meal packs sent out by a private contractor, I'm trying to work out who audits the contents? Would it be the contractor's parent company, the local authority or a national agency?

    https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/catering-firm-slammed-charging-11-3982629

    There are plenty of historical examples of food contractors failing to meet expectations in Georgian Britain.
  • RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    It shows the story has got "legs". Its not just Johnson or even the Tories that fuel the story - two local ones up here of a similar "do what we say not what we do" ilk-

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19000892.council-boss-issues-stay-home-warning-holiday-maldives/
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19005450.complaint-made-councillor-living-french-holiday-home/
    Those two are a tiny bit different than going on a bike ride, don't you think?
    Nope. The story isn't that Johnson may or may not have been unwise being driven to Stratford for dogging a bike ride. The story is people being told to make increasingly unpopular restrictions on their lives by people showing no interests in doing so themselves.

    I know that you and Philip are blinkered to the political message being given by the PM doing his bike ride, but normals out there are not. It doesn't matter if it is *legal* it matters *politically* because of the confused message that it gives out.

    If the aim is to get people to stay home as much as possible to stop people dying then the last thing you do is twat off to the Maldives before imploring people to stay home, or drive across London when you have big parks on your doorstep.

    This isn't about attacking the PM, this is about smart politics. There is no way on this planet that Cameron would have done half the stupid that Johnson has done because he understood the basics like narrative.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.

    Edit - in fairness, that's not quite what he said. He said he wanted to use externally set papers in the process, rather than full blown exams where they are set, sat and assessed externally.

    https://feweek.co.uk/2021/01/13/williamson-writes-to-ofqual-about-summer-exam-replacements/
    But they're both cocks.
    I leave it to others to comment on weather or not that is true.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Watching the 2019 election midnight to 3 am again (Sky cover)

    I forgot what a picture Bercow's face was :smiley:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stocky said:

    "When in doubt Republican senators tend to follow their leader. And Mr McConnell, not Mr Trump, is their leader."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/13/mitch-mcconnells-cold-fury-means-donald-trump-could-convicted/

    Trump's going down folks. Happy days!

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1349138131233222661
    Agree with Dan on this. In the end, only one GOP member of the House voted for the (milder) resolution requesting Pence to act. Republicans will generally do just enough to give themselves an "ultimately a good guy" ticket, while arguing that anything substantive would be distressingly divisive, time to move on, etc

    It might change a few months down the line if Trump really pushes the "leader in exile" thing and starts demanding primary deselection for everyone except his loyalists. There would come a point when Republicans decide he needs to be squashed - but right now they reckon they can get away "Hey, he'll be gone this month, let's not aggravate things further". It's even arguable that they're right in terms of US political stability, not creating martyrs etc.
    If he is impeached and found guilty he cannot run for president again. That`s the big plus - at least from many perspectives. Looking at it from the perspective of the Dem Party, however, it would be good for them if Trump did run again wouldn`t it?
    Maybe, maybe not.

    Trump has the diehard fans who will turnout to vote for him no matter what that Pence or Cruz or Haley would not have if they were the GOP nominee in 2024 instead of him, however they also have fewer voters who would turn out to vote against them than Trump would, except maybe Cruz.
    Trump's a goner but a Dem dream scenario for 24 could be a 3rd party run from somebody endorsed by him. Such a person imo would have to have the surname Trump. I don't see it myself but it can't be ruled out.

    But I'm not thinking that much about Trump any more. Not my focus. What I'm thinking about is Dominic Raab. How popular is he, would you say, with the Tory grassroots?
    I hear that the Dover Branch of the Conservative Party isn't aware that Dominic Raab has an important job in government.
    And therefore perhaps haven't quite appreciated that people like me - well maybe just me at this point - have decided that since Sunak is a bubble, Hunt is a Remainer, Patel is unthinkable, and Gove is Gove, there is a need to give Dim Dom serious consideration in the market for next Con leader.
    aka Raab C. Brexit up here in Scotland.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021
    kjh said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    It shows the story has got "legs". Its not just Johnson or even the Tories that fuel the story - two local ones up here of a similar "do what we say not what we do" ilk-

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19000892.council-boss-issues-stay-home-warning-holiday-maldives/
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19005450.complaint-made-councillor-living-french-holiday-home/
    Those two are a tiny bit different than going on a bike ride, don't you think?
    It doesn't matter. What is key is that Boris did not have the common sense to not realise the optics of what he was doing. With all that had gone before how did he not realise this?
    It does matter as to whether what he did was a breach or not. Optics is one thing, but whether he actually did something wrong is another and highly relevant.

    If people think he broke rules that matters a little l, but whether he actually did matters more. Anyone mad at him for not breaking rules is unreasonable and it distracts from actual failures.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Latest Scottish vaccination figures from the BBC live text feed:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-55573649

    Vaccination programme - update on figures
    Overall a total of 191,965 people have now received their first dose of a coronavirus vaccination, and 2,990 have received their second dose as of 08:30 this morning.

    Vaccination in Scotland began on 8 December with those in care homes and health and social care staff.

    The health secretary said 80% of care home residents and 55% of care home staff had received their first dose of the vaccination.

    Just under 52% of frontline NHS and social care staff have now been vaccinated too.

    Vaccinating those over 80 who live in the community began eight days ago and now 2% of that group has received their first injection.

    The vaccination programme will "scale up rapidly from this week", Ms Freeman added.

    She promises that by the first week in February 100% of the people in the above groups will have received a first dose.

    It's been very, very slow to date. I genuinely hope it speeds up rapidly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,478
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    You don't think it is a story? The media has been droning on about it endlessly so it clearly is a story. Whether it is fair or not is another matter, but it is a story.
    I think it's a non-story. It also strikes me as a possible Cummings-esque distraction technique. There is no real negative impact on Boris from people banging on about a 7 mile local bike ride, however outraged some commentators might pretent to be. Mike Smithson said it himself in his thread, and Mike would not be shy to put the boot in to Boris if he felt the story warranted it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    This thread has voted to LEAVE
  • kinabalu said:

    She's just not understood this great deal properly.

    https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1349289771802259456?s=20

    It's one for the tiny violin, I'm afraid.
    But playing Ode to Joy, over and over again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    stjohn said:

    I've been thinking about the vaccine design.

    Simple evolutionary theory would suggest that if the virus mutates to a form that is more transmissible, all other things being equal, it will have an evolutionary advantage. The spike protein is the bit of the virus that binds to human cells, the first stage in successful transmission. So mutations in the spike protein that result is greater transmissibility are a predictable development. All the current viruses have been developed to target the virus spike protein. The very bit of the virus that could have been predicted to mutate for evolutionary advantage - and therefore risk vaccine escape?

    I think that the spike protein was chosen as the target for vaccines because it was a relatively simple to design vaccines to target this bit of the virus. But was it the best choice or strategy, given the above?

    Yes, as they're really the only useful target available on the intact virus.
    Antibodies produced by targeting other bits of the virus would be highly unlikely to be neutralising, as those bits (for example, the nucleocapsid protein) are protected by a lipid envelope which surrounds the intact virus, and from which the spike proteins stick out.
    The immune system produces a lot of antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein after infection, as it is highly immunogenic, but those antibodies don't seem to be very useful, and are possibly involved in the negative effects of immune response to the virus.
  • kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    What matters is that 'it is a story'. Boris's fault is that he didn't have the nouse to realise it might be a hostage to fortune.

    Now you might argue that I am using hindsight in that opinion, but I don't think so. I would put more in the bleeding obvious category.
    Sorry but that is the same BS logic that the Republican diehard Senators backing Trump saying that because people believe that there was fraud it needs to be investigated further.
    1. Plant a story for partisan reasons despite knowing it to be nonsense.
    2. Spread the story far and wide for partisan reasons getting people who want to believe it to share it further..
    3. Amplify the story you planted as much as possible.
    4. Then claim that because people are talking about the story, it really is a story, so needs to be investigated further.
    Fools may swallow this nonsense, doesn't make it a genuine story it just makes it a conspiracy theory rubbish that should be repelled by anyone sensible who can comprehend the facts.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour controlled Exeter council votes to remove statute of General Buller


    https://twitter.com/_SaveOurStatues/status/1349137277956591621?s=20

    Democratic decision making in action.
    'The review said: "The current location is inappropriate because it is outside an educational establishment, which includes young people from diverse backgrounds."'

    More like woke idiots having nothing better to do than erase historic monuments in the middle of a pandemic. How could 'young people from diverse backgrounds' possibly gain an education (!) without having their surroundings culturally cleansed?

    On a happier side note, despite the Rhodes Must Fall loons getting Oriel to agree to remove the statue by the end of 2020, as of now Rhodes ... has not yet fallen. And All Souls has decided to keep their statue of Christopher Codrington in situ. Little by little, the forces of conservatism are digging in, and pushing back.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Williamson clearly wanted to keep the schools open right to the end. Johnson wanted this too until he didn`t.

    Williamson has been undermined by Johnson but as he is still in post cannot say this. Some mealy-mouthed waffle to follow I predict.
    Yep. Pisspoor minister but not making the big calls. 75% of the shit heaped upon him should in truth be scraped up, shoveled into a large container, and emptied over the head of one "Boris" Johnson.
    Listening to him is still very bad for my blood pressure.

    Edit - Halfon just pointed out that Williamson is contradicting earlier evidence to the committee that schools were a marginal factor of transmission. Now he's claiming they were...and he's waffling in response.
    It's entirely clear from earlier evidence that government was at best disingenuous, and more likely lying outright about this for some time.
    It's been entirely clear to me since October that they were lying.
    I agree.
  • Not sure if this was posted earlier or not:

    ManCock: "I'm really glad that we're able to send out food for those who receive free school meals"
    Piers Moron: "If you're that glad, why did you vote against it?"
    ManCock: "I'm glad that we were able to put this into place"
    Moron: "If you're that glad why did you, as Health Secretary, vote against it"

    https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1349310087924477952
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,803
    kle4 said:

    kjh said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    It shows the story has got "legs". Its not just Johnson or even the Tories that fuel the story - two local ones up here of a similar "do what we say not what we do" ilk-

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19000892.council-boss-issues-stay-home-warning-holiday-maldives/
    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19005450.complaint-made-councillor-living-french-holiday-home/
    Those two are a tiny bit different than going on a bike ride, don't you think?
    It doesn't matter. What is key is that Boris did not have the common sense to not realise the optics of what he was doing. With all that had gone before how did he not realise this?
    It does matter as to whether what he did was a breach or not. Optics is one thing, but whether he actually did something wrong is another and highly relevant.

    If people think he broke rules that matters a little l, but whether he actually did matters more. Anyone mad at him for not breaking rules is unreasonable and it distracts from actual failures.
    Well yes ok technically, but in reality no.

    If I break the rules probably nobody but me and policeman is going to know.

    Whereas if Boris does not break the rules, but does something that may appear to some as possibly being on the verge of well you know then the media picks it up and ministers are asked over an over again, and opinion columns write about it, etc, etc and within days several million people think he did break the rules (often just because they want to think that).

    Hey presto the Government's message is tarnished.

    So this is why it is important:

    I break the rules - no impact
    Boris doesn't break the rules - all hell breaks loose.

    Hence why Boris does need to be more careful in what he does.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,478
    edited January 2021

    johnt said:

    John Boy calling for urgent action from the government about a situation brought about by the government.

    https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1349242523206737920?s=21

    The Tories won an election saying they would sign a deal which was clearly going to deliver this outcome. They then signed the deal. It seems a bit late to be moaning that they are getting what they voted for.

    The more troublesome problem for the Tories is the sell out of the fishermen which is not going down well in the fishing areas. Fishermen have not only been given the catch they believe they were told they would get but they are also seeing stocks going to rot as the mountain of paperwork leaves their main market effectively closed to them.
    That's the government's problem. They have delivered roughly the Vote Leave plan from 2016. Their problem is that at least some of the problems (foreseeable, foreseen, confidently denied) look like coming in as well.

    In 1990, the Conservative government delivered on its manifesto commitment to introduce the Community Charge. That delivery did not work out to their advantage, even as it was reversed.

    And if Johnson's Brexit turns out to be a temporary aberration, the long term costs will be bigger. Some of the lost business won't return, even if the UK did return to the EU...
    The UK won't return to the EU, and by trying to inflate that particular mental dinghy, you're just making yourself feel worse.
    I haven't said we will. I don't know what will happen next. Maybe this will turn out to be a roaring success.

    But suppose it doesn't. What should the UK do then?

    And why are some early Brexit supporters so determined to insist that this decision, uniquely amongst political decisions, is irreversible and never to be discussed again?
    Just trying to offer some well meaning advice.

    It might be a useful mental exercise to work out what it would be that you'd like about rejoining - how you think it would make you feel. Part of the European family again? Respected amongst our peers? Contributing to the global conversation? Showing an appreciation for European culture? If you could isolate that, you might find that none of those things are actually lost.
    Thanks for the unsolicited advice.

    Since you ask, all I want is that this decision is as provisional as all other political decisions.

    That I and others, in years to come, have the right to say "That was a bit of a Horlicks, wasn't it? Maybe we should reverse it."

    What are you so keen for people not to have that?
    I'm not actually, though I don't think the lense through which you view the issue 'Has *Brexit* been a success?' will have any relevancy to the situation beyond a timespan of about a year. After this, it's 'Is Britain performing successfully?', and there is a panoply of remedies if it isn't, of which joining the EU will be extremely low down the list.

    You want Brexit to be 'as provisional as all other political decisions' because you want Brexit to be reversed. That much is clear. You derive dissatisfaction from what has happened, and would derive satisfaction from it being reversed. I'm just suggesting to dig a little in to why that would be so good. I'm not suggesting you tell us all or anything.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,803

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'd put money on his having been driven out there, dropped off for a cycle round, and then driven back. Why he didn't go somewhere nearer like Hyde Park, who can say. Whatever, it's what police across the country are trying to stop people doing, otherwise popular spots will become crowded (as and when it ever stops raining)
    The Police have no right to be stopping people from doing legal activities.

    If the Government had made this activity illegal it might be a story.
    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    What matters is that 'it is a story'. Boris's fault is that he didn't have the nouse to realise it might be a hostage to fortune.

    Now you might argue that I am using hindsight in that opinion, but I don't think so. I would put more in the bleeding obvious category.
    Sorry but that is the same BS logic that the Republican diehard Senators backing Trump saying that because people believe that there was fraud it needs to be investigated further.
    1. Plant a story for partisan reasons despite knowing it to be nonsense.
    2. Spread the story far and wide for partisan reasons getting people who want to believe it to share it further..
    3. Amplify the story you planted as much as possible.
    4. Then claim that because people are talking about the story, it really is a story, so needs to be investigated further.
    Fools may swallow this nonsense, doesn't make it a genuine story it just makes it a conspiracy theory rubbish that should be repelled by anyone sensible who can comprehend the facts.
    No it is completely different. I am not asking for an investigation. It is not a planted story. I don't agree with what the media are doing.

    All I said was Boris should have been more careful so as not to let a nonsense story arise. That seems eminently good advice.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    stjohn said:

    kle4 said:

    stjohn said:

    I've been thinking about the vaccine design.

    Simple evolutionary theory would suggest that if the virus mutates to a form that is more transmissible, all other things being equal, it will have an evolutionary advantage. The spike protein is the bit of the virus that binds to human cells, the first stage in successful transmission. So mutations in the spike protein that result is greater transmissibility are a predictable development. All the current viruses have been developed to target the virus spike protein. The very bit of the virus that could have been predicted to mutate for evolutionary advantage - and therefore risk vaccine escape?

    I think that the spike protein was chosen as the target for vaccines because it was a relatively simple to design vaccines to target this bit of the virus. But was it the best choice or strategy, given the above?

    Its beyond my ability, but wasnt there a story that scientists believed they could tweak the relevant element pretty quickly if needed?
    Yes. Which is great. But far better to avoid vaccine escape in the first place if that's possible. I don't know if targeting an additional or different part of the virus could have been easily done and effective or not. It just seems logical to me, with what we are seeing, that targeting the spike protein could be problematic for sustained vaccine efficacy.
    It could.
    But the body produces many different antibodies to the spike protein, so it's not a simple matter at all. And the strong likelihood seems to be that even a virus evolved for vaccine escape won't simply become ineffective, just less effective.

    Now we know more about the virus, it's likely that future vaccines will incorporate a mixture targeting several different modifications/evolutions of the spike protein (something relatively simple to do with the mRNA vaccines), which would make vaccine escape very hard.
    We just didn't have either the knowledge or time to do so last year.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,803
    edited January 2021

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    The point is Philip it is a story. You can't possibly deny that because the media has been droning on about it relentlessly. It really doesn't matter that the media might be very wrong and that Boris may have done absolutely nothing wrong.

    non-story...


    You actually think it's a 'story' because there's now a cartoon about it?
    You don't think it is a story? The media has been droning on about it endlessly so it clearly is a story. Whether it is fair or not is another matter, but it is a story.
    I think it's a non-story. It also strikes me as a possible Cummings-esque distraction technique. There is no real negative impact on Boris from people banging on about a 7 mile local bike ride, however outraged some commentators might pretent to be. Mike Smithson said it himself in his thread, and Mike would not be shy to put the boot in to Boris if he felt the story warranted it.
    I can not see how anyone can claim something is a non-story when it is being repeated ad nauseam. By definition that makes it a story.

    I think people need to distinguish between whether it is a valid story and a story. They are different.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Paging @ydoethur and the parents of every child who were due sit their GCSEs and A Levels this summer.

    https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1349315442721091589

    What's the difference between a weathercock and Gavin Williamson?

    A weathercock only changes with the situation.
    Gets better.

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1349316195107921922
    LOL at the 'could happen to all schools' headline. Self-debunking in the 2nd sentence:

    "Education Secretary admitted there could still be "some areas of particular concern" where schools will have to stay shut."
    At the moment, we are not in a position to reopen, and there is no sign of things improving sufficiently in the next five weeks to let us reopen. It's been complicated because in this evidence to the ESC Williamson has said this testing gimmick he's put in place to fool people into thinking schools are safe will have to be administered by staff, which simply isn't going to happen.

    So it is not 'news' that we are shut for some weeks. I'm guessing now we've got into this situation it will be March before we can reopen (from which point of view the smart thing would be to bring forward the Easter holidays so we can go straight back and right through). It depends on vaccine rollout and how soon we can have vulnerable groups, especially vulnerable parents and teachers, vaccinated.

    That may not be the official line, but short of dramatic improvements we are where we are.

    Now he's struggling on technology as well. Foolish. It would save a fortune to give every child aged 11+ a tablet of some description and do away with exercise books.
    Again, agreed. And if they'd done that six months ago, perhaps along with subsidised broadband provision, delivering remote learning for less prosperous families would be massively simpler and more effective than it is right now.

    For a significant percentage of families, it just isn't happening, despite schools best efforts.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    The brilliant photo of Porgy and Bess above Alastair's article is surely worthy of a caption competition.

    (I know it'll have Robert in tears but they'll soon pass).
This discussion has been closed.