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Leave looks like…Has Brexit met Vote Leave’s prospectus? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    edited January 2021
    delete
  • Yokes said:

    Yokes said:

    There is little doubt Brexit has hit food supplies in Northern Ireland, I have seen it with my own two eyes. Based on the most recent visit to supermarkets today it looks a bit better, possibly because the chains have reduced their lines and done some replacing but you'd have to be a total tool to say its causing the consumer pain so far.

    One thing I have noticed though, lactose free milk, which my partner insists she must have, seems off the shelves in my local supermarkets. Cravendale has disappeared as well. I'm wondering if there is an issue with Arla....

    You mean the supermarkets rather than keeping shelves empty long term are addressing the issue by changing the layout of the shelves and filling the gaps with other products?

    I'm flabbergasted! My gast has never been so flabbered!
    I suspect that's it, in part anyway. You have to hand it to supermarkets , generally really really good at what they do. I'm pleased because I got hacked off with the 'oh my god the shelves are empty stories' Ok, so some stuff was undoubtedly short but its not a crisis by any means, plus the Christmas to New year transition period seemed to catch them out for supply. I suspect within a four weeks this will die down and without snap and put on twitter empty shelf pics, people will notice less even if a few lines get dropped out for a while.

    @Mortimer, there may be routing of supply chains so there is increased use of ROI . There is a fair integration piece there, some of big UK chains are present North & South and Ireland's agri-food industry as a whole is sizeable. I am fortunate in that I don't mind good old cows milk at all but I know it doesn't work that way for everyone.
    Well said. Some smart people of legendary modesty were suggesting weeks ago that the supermarkets were good at what they do and would promptly do this rather than leaving shelves empty for long.

    Many here said that was delusional. Good to see the supermarkets are as good at what they do as I expected. Smart cookies.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    Yes. Sovereignty to stop the w..s coming in.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441

    Scott_xP said:
    Nothing like pouring petrol on a burning building.
    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    As I have often said, they can rightly refuse a referendum for the next few years, politically and morally. But after, say, 2024-25, that position will become increasingly untenable, if the Scots keep returning SNP majorities.

    The thistle must be seized. Yes, the SNP might implode. But it might not. Time to start thinking proactively
  • Roger said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    Yes. Sovereignty to stop the w..s coming in.
    If w..s rhymes with bankers then yes you're still more likely to be in Paris marvelling at how wonderful it is versus the riff raff from Hartlepool.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Vaccination rolling along in South London - Group 4 (Clinically extremely vulnerable) friend has been told of appointment this Thursday.
  • Hahahahaha

    Meeks once again claiming to speak for Leavers and not having the first clue what he is actually talking about.

    It just keeps alive the memory of that wonderful night in June 2016 every time he tries.
    Yep. It really was quite fantastic. Stayed up all night even though I was working the next day. One of the best nights I can remember as far as politics goes. Certainly better than any election night since I could vote.
  • Foxy said:

    Brexit? Can't score it yet. We left nearly a year ago. We've had a "deal" for almost a fortnight, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in.

    Fun times ahead ;)

    I think undeniably Brexit has been delivered, a bit late and shop soiled, but delivered.

    The real question is whether the issues that drove it are addressed, and for that it is too early to say.

    This map of social disintegration of community is not completely identical to the map of Leaverstan, but there is a strong family resemblance. We now get to see how Brexit solves those issues. My hunch is that it will accelerate the social discontent.

    https://twitter.com/Will_Tanner/status/1348927558562283520?s=09
    Ironically, perhaps, one of the most prominent to realise this was Dominic Cummings, hence the "levelling up" agenda; even in the campaigning, it was the NHS on the side of the bus, not ECJ, FOM or EFTA.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Leon said:

    FOUR countries have registered over 1000 daily deaths today:

    USA, Brazil, UK, Germany

    I'm not sure, but this may be a melancholy First


    We have detected a new variant circulating in December in Manaus, Amazonas state, north Brazil, where very high attack rates have been estimated previously.

    https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586
  • Hahahahaha

    Meeks once again claiming to speak for Leavers and not having the first clue what he is actually talking about.

    It just keeps alive the memory of that wonderful night in June 2016 every time he tries.
    Yep. It really was quite fantastic. Stayed up all night even though I was working the next day. One of the best nights I can remember as far as politics goes. Certainly better than any election night since I could vote.
    2019 was just as fun for me, but 2016 was in a league of its own for Andy_JS's spreadsheet too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441
    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    Yes. Sovereignty to stop the w..s coming in.
    What does "w.s." even mean?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Scott_xP said:
    Potentially smart politics.

    A bit like Starmer kicking British Trump (Corbyn) out of the Labour Party, but only after he'd gotten control over the party himself.

    Mitch must be absolutely fuming not just about the invasian of the Capitol but also about how Trump's antics have gifted the Democrats the Senate's two Georgia seats. Had it not been for Trump's post-election meltdown antics then Mitch would still be Senate Majority Leader on 20 January.
    Yes, because the Georgia election was in no way impacted by McConnell's decision to come out against $2,000 stimulus checks. Yup, nothing to do with it.

    Though I would be surprised about McConnell doing that, if only because he knows he would face a backlash from a number of Senators inside and significant impact outside. The polling suggests a majority of the base would favour Trump over the GOP if forced to choose.

    Ah, saw it was the NYT......
  • Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    I hope they do but knowing my luck it will one of those rare occasions where Johnson actually manages not to make something worse.
  • Hard to debate whether Brexit has been a success of failure when (a) we're only just starting to understand its effects and (b) what it was supposed to mean varies depending on who was speaking and which conflicting version of their views you want to consider official

    https://www.itv.com/news/border/2021-01-12/major-seafood-company-more-or-less-finished-by-brexit
  • A bit late for a statement of the bleeding obvious. Now, if the Joint Chiefs swore continued alliegance to Trump, that would be an intervention.
    The US military has a significant problem with far-right infiltration. This statement is unfortunately VERY necessary.
  • isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

  • Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682
    That's a great quote tbf.
  • Hahahahaha

    Meeks once again claiming to speak for Leavers and not having the first clue what he is actually talking about.

    It just keeps alive the memory of that wonderful night in June 2016 every time he tries.
    Yep. It really was quite fantastic. Stayed up all night even though I was working the next day. One of the best nights I can remember as far as politics goes. Certainly better than any election night since I could vote.
    2019 was just as fun for me, but 2016 was in a league of its own for Andy_JS's spreadsheet too.
    2019 was not great for me as I really couldn't bring myself to vote for Johnson - either the PM version or my local MP version who shares his name. I needed him to win to get the Brexit stuff finished but I just could not vote for someone who is so ill suited to high office. So for me 2019 was more a sigh of relief that at least Brexit would finally be achieved.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2021

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
  • isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    For me, no, absolutely not.

    Besides numbers are relatively meaningless. The government have actually created what you might call a "level playing field" on immigration - making it harder for unskilled minimum wage Europeans to come here yes, but easier for skilled rest of the world nurses and others to come here instead.

    If we end up with fewer unskilled immigrants from Europe on Universal Credit income support and housing allowance, but more skilled nurses and others, then is that a bad thing?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021

    Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    First wave, the government did deals with private hospitals (which weren't needed in the end) Are we not repeating that? I seemed to remember the cost they negotiated wasn't bad for the service provided.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Foxy said:

    Brexit? Can't score it yet. We left nearly a year ago. We've had a "deal" for almost a fortnight, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in.

    Fun times ahead ;)

    I think undeniably Brexit has been delivered, a bit late and shop soiled, but delivered.

    The real question is whether the issues that drove it are addressed, and for that it is too early to say.

    This map of social disintegration of community is not completely identical to the map of Leaverstan, but there is a strong family resemblance. We now get to see how Brexit solves those issues. My hunch is that it will accelerate the social discontent.

    https://twitter.com/Will_Tanner/status/1348927558562283520?s=09
    Ironically, perhaps, one of the most prominent to realise this was Dominic Cummings, hence the "levelling up" agenda; even in the campaigning, it was the NHS on the side of the bus, not ECJ, FOM or EFTA.
    Though of course regional redistribution was within our Parliament's power...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
    A lot of Boris haters are similar to bad odds compilers - they don't adjust their ratings to the market when results keep going against their judgement, preferring to think the winners just keep getting lucky
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
  • A bit late for a statement of the bleeding obvious. Now, if the Joint Chiefs swore continued alliegance to Trump, that would be an intervention.
    The US military has a significant problem with far-right infiltration. This statement is unfortunately VERY necessary.
    I always find the language interesting in these instances.

    I don't actually disagree with you (and I assume you know far more than I since you re actually there) that there is far-right influence and it is a significant problem. But is it 'infiltration' or is it something that has always been there and is just now allowed to express itself because of Trump?
  • SO your PBers who have been saying that the Trumpsky base within (and without) the Republican Party is massive and durable and the key to the 2024 GOP nomination - are you as sure of that TODAY as you were YESTERDAY or the day before?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    I doubt many realise it. If the Hong Kongers are going to come here en masse and undercut the working and lower middle classes wages and access to state services it would be a big problem. If they are more likely to compete for highly paid jobs and buy expensive property then roll out the red carpet
  • I used to go every few years. I really cant imagine wanting to go there in the next 5 years at least.
  • Leon said:

    Roger said:

    RobD said:

    It was all about immigration, so a big victory for Leavers. Not so much for the rest of us

    I thought the top issue for Leavers was sovereignty, as shown by the Ashcroft polling?
    Yes. Sovereignty to stop the w..s coming in.
    What does "w.s." even mean?
    It means that given two letters and two dots you still can't spell :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Good header and precisely why remainers should have backed May.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441

    Hard to debate whether Brexit has been a success of failure when (a) we're only just starting to understand its effects and (b) what it was supposed to mean varies depending on who was speaking and which conflicting version of their views you want to consider official

    https://www.itv.com/news/border/2021-01-12/major-seafood-company-more-or-less-finished-by-brexit

    It is, surely, like the French Revolution according to Chinese politician Zhou Enlai. As I am sure most PB-ers know, When asked, Was the Revolution a success? Zhou allegedly said, "It is too early to say".

    Brexit is so complex, unique and inherently imponderable there will never be a moment when we can step back and say Yes it was Good or No it was Bad. It is just a massive Thing. A big change. A massive, unexpected evolution. And so we move on.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    Has the leader of the turtle people in the senate grown a spine ? I'll believe it when I see it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
    2019 majority was "unexpected"?
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    I doubt many realise it. If the Hong Kongers are going to come here en masse and undercut the working and lower middle classes wages and access to state services it would be a big problem. If they are more likely to compete for highly paid jobs and buy expensive property then roll out the red carpet
    I don't care which they do - and it will probably be a mix of both. We owe them a duty of care and personally I think that given the experience of previous migration they will be a positive contribution to the country.

    Not a view, I suspect, that will make me universally popular.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682
    Blimey - Man U go 3 points clear. Who saw that coming back in October?
  • A bit late for a statement of the bleeding obvious. Now, if the Joint Chiefs swore continued alliegance to Trump, that would be an intervention.
    The US military has a significant problem with far-right infiltration. This statement is unfortunately VERY necessary.
    I always find the language interesting in these instances.

    I don't actually disagree with you (and I assume you know far more than I since you re actually there) that there is far-right influence and it is a significant problem. But is it 'infiltration' or is it something that has always been there and is just now allowed to express itself because of Trump?
    The rise of Trumpsky has caused far-rightist in the US military to fee empowered, because they know their Commander-in-Chief is with them.

    In turn, this has helped make the military realize the extent and - even more important - the clear and present danger.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
    2019 majority was "unexpected"?
    A majority of 80??? Yes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    Hard to debate whether Brexit has been a success of failure when (a) we're only just starting to understand its effects and (b) what it was supposed to mean varies depending on who was speaking and which conflicting version of their views you want to consider official

    https://www.itv.com/news/border/2021-01-12/major-seafood-company-more-or-less-finished-by-brexit

    It is, surely, like the French Revolution according to Chinese politician Zhou Enlai. As I am sure most PB-ers know, When asked, Was the Revolution a success? Zhou allegedly said, "It is too early to say".
    I'm hoping also that most PBers know it was based on a mis-translation and Zhou was referring to the then current Paris riots.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    I doubt many realise it. If the Hong Kongers are going to come here en masse and undercut the working and lower middle classes wages and access to state services it would be a big problem. If they are more likely to compete for highly paid jobs and buy expensive property then roll out the red carpet
    Conclusion
    Despite some media reports suggesting that millions of BNO citizens could come to the UK, it is still too early to tell if the UK government’s Hong Kong BNO visa and its path to citizenship will result in substantial numbers coming to the UK.
  • dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
    2019 majority was "unexpected"?
    The majority of 80 probably was yes. Anyone buying seats on the spreads made a healthy profit didn't they?

    It certainly was prior to Boris taking over. I'm curious what odds you'd have got on an 80 seat majority in the Spring or Summer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    First wave, the government did deals with private hospitals (which weren't needed in the end) Are we not repeating that? I seemed to remember the cost they negotiated wasn't bad for the service provided.
    Mostly the private hospitals are being used for Non Covid work such as breast and bowel cancer, hip replacements etc. They are not really set up for medical patients as opposed to surgical.

    Sending patients to nursing homes without testing them first raises my eyebrows more than a little. You might as well make Dr Shipman their medical advisor.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
    2019 majority was "unexpected"?
    Until about October of that year I guess. In the June the Conservatives were in fourth place on 17%
  • isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    For me, no, absolutely not.

    Besides numbers are relatively meaningless. The government have actually created what you might call a "level playing field" on immigration - making it harder for unskilled minimum wage Europeans to come here yes, but easier for skilled rest of the world nurses and others to come here instead.

    If we end up with fewer unskilled immigrants from Europe on Universal Credit income support and housing allowance, but more skilled nurses and others, then is that a bad thing?
    One of the biggest shortages we have is care workers. We seem only willing to pay minimum wage, or very close to it for that.
  • Blimey - Man U go 3 points clear. Who saw that coming back in October?

    Certainly not the idiots who were calling for Solskjaer's head
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Gove is a Scot, and a senior minister. Boris Johnson is the prime minister of the UK. Quite frankly, I'd be worried if they WEREN'T meeting to discuss the urgent question of the Union (indeed, they'd be heavily criticised for not doing so).

    They are going to fuck it up.

    I would be delighted if they never mentioned it ever again.
    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    I would not be entirely surprised if, contra your expectations, they manage to secure the Union, at least for the medium term (in the long term all polities will surely dissolve, as we are overtaken by AI and/or aliens)
    2019 majority was "unexpected"?
    A majority of 80??? Yes.
    OK. Fair enough. I expected it only too well. Which is why I dropped off PB and generally tuned out.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    NYT Political Correspondent just said on CNN that:

    Mitch McConnell is "pleased" that Trump is being impeached and he might vote to convict Trump.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2021

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    For me, no, absolutely not.

    Besides numbers are relatively meaningless. The government have actually created what you might call a "level playing field" on immigration - making it harder for unskilled minimum wage Europeans to come here yes, but easier for skilled rest of the world nurses and others to come here instead.

    If we end up with fewer unskilled immigrants from Europe on Universal Credit income support and housing allowance, but more skilled nurses and others, then is that a bad thing?
    One of the biggest shortages we have is care workers. We seem only willing to pay minimum wage, or very close to it for that.
    I would have absolutely no problem in seeing care workers wages going up, as an alternative to importing more people to do the job at minimum wage.

    Care workers may not have the qualifications of nurses but they do a damned important job in difficult circumstances. If we can't fill the vacancies without increasing wages then that is supply and demand, market economics. I am OK with that. With the greatest of respect to other minimum wage jobs, I don't see why someone working 12 hour shifts in a care home looking after the vulnerable and the elderly, wiping people's bums and providing personal care and attention should only be worth the minimum wage.

    Should a care worker be on the same wage as a waitress who is earning tips from her tables? I don't think so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682

    Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    Sounds sensible to me if it can be done reasonably safely. Better than people tying up ambulances waiting for a hospital bed.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,708
    House Republican vote on impeachment will be a free vote - ie not whipped.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BDS sufferers "Look what Ed Davey losing the Lib Dems leadership to Jo Swinson has done to the Conservative vote!"


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Blimey - Man U go 3 points clear. Who saw that coming back in October?

    Everton within a point of Liverpool after 17 games too.
    Plenty of further twists and turns to come methinks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    MikeL said:

    NYT Political Correspondent just said on CNN that:

    Mitch McConnell is "pleased" that Trump is being impeached and he might vote to convict Trump.

    :lol: This sucker's going down!!!
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Brexit? Can't score it yet. We left nearly a year ago. We've had a "deal" for almost a fortnight, and the impacts are only just starting to kick in.

    Fun times ahead ;)

    I think undeniably Brexit has been delivered, a bit late and shop soiled, but delivered.

    The real question is whether the issues that drove it are addressed, and for that it is too early to say.

    This map of social disintegration of community is not completely identical to the map of Leaverstan, but there is a strong family resemblance. We now get to see how Brexit solves those issues. My hunch is that it will accelerate the social discontent.

    https://twitter.com/Will_Tanner/status/1348927558562283520?s=09
    Ironically, perhaps, one of the most prominent to realise this was Dominic Cummings, hence the "levelling up" agenda; even in the campaigning, it was the NHS on the side of the bus, not ECJ, FOM or EFTA.
    Though of course regional redistribution was within our Parliament's power...
    Not really. The zones that received ERDF funding were decided by the EU not the UK. And the UK had to provide matched funding so it warped whatever policies our own Government might have been pursuing - whether Labour or Conservative.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
    It matters because millions of people think they have been promised something different by Brexit, and when migration doesnt reduce, and might even grow they will lose further trust in politics and be open for more radicalisation as we see in the US.

    It would be far better if our politicians were willing to be honest about migration, but they wont, and Brexit would not have happened if they had done so.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    A bit late for a statement of the bleeding obvious. Now, if the Joint Chiefs swore continued alliegance to Trump, that would be an intervention.
    The US military has a significant problem with far-right infiltration. This statement is unfortunately VERY necessary.
    I always find the language interesting in these instances.

    I don't actually disagree with you (and I assume you know far more than I since you re actually there) that there is far-right influence and it is a significant problem. But is it 'infiltration' or is it something that has always been there and is just now allowed to express itself because of Trump?
    The rise of Trumpsky has caused far-rightist in the US military to fee empowered, because they know their Commander-in-Chief is with them.

    In turn, this has helped make the military realize the extent and - even more important - the clear and present danger.
    A not insignificant issue in the British military too...

    https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/five-referred-to-anti-terror-programme-as-army-hunts-far-right-infiltration-within-ranks/
  • isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    For me, no, absolutely not.

    Besides numbers are relatively meaningless. The government have actually created what you might call a "level playing field" on immigration - making it harder for unskilled minimum wage Europeans to come here yes, but easier for skilled rest of the world nurses and others to come here instead.

    If we end up with fewer unskilled immigrants from Europe on Universal Credit income support and housing allowance, but more skilled nurses and others, then is that a bad thing?
    One of the biggest shortages we have is care workers. We seem only willing to pay minimum wage, or very close to it for that.
    I would have absolutely no problem in seeing care workers wages going up, as an alternative to importing more people to do the job at minimum wage.

    Care workers may not have the qualifications of nurses but they do a damned important job in difficult circumstances. If we can't fill the vacancies without increasing wages then that is supply and demand, market economics. I am OK with that. With the greatest of respect to other minimum wage jobs, I don't see why someone working 12 hour shifts in a care home looking after the vulnerable and the elderly, wiping people's bums and providing personal care and attention should only be worth the minimum wage.

    Should a care worker be on the same wage as a waitress who is earning tips from her tables? I don't think so.
    I would too, but try getting the funding for that through the Conservative party.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Leon said:

    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    None of those things happened in Scotland, and Scots are not in favour of any of them.

    Apart from that, brilliant post Sean
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682

    Blimey - Man U go 3 points clear. Who saw that coming back in October?

    Certainly not the idiots who were calling for Solskjaer's head
    I think, what with Covid and all that, that now is the right time to call a halt to this season and declare whoever is top chamipions. Just sayin.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
    It matters because millions of people think they have been promised something different by Brexit, and when migration doesnt reduce, and might even grow they will lose further trust in politics and be open for more radicalisation as we see in the US.

    It would be far better if our politicians were willing to be honest about migration, but they wont, and Brexit would not have happened if they had done so.

    Our politicians are being more honest about migration.

    Cameron and May pledged to bring immigration down to tens of thousands. They had no policy how to do so besides squeezing non-EU immigration ludicrously tight.

    Boris has abolished that pledge. He isn't promising to do it. He's not going to break that pledge, as he isn't making it, it isn't policy anymore.

    That is honesty.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682
    Foxy said:

    Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    First wave, the government did deals with private hospitals (which weren't needed in the end) Are we not repeating that? I seemed to remember the cost they negotiated wasn't bad for the service provided.
    Mostly the private hospitals are being used for Non Covid work such as breast and bowel cancer, hip replacements etc. They are not really set up for medical patients as opposed to surgical.

    Sending patients to nursing homes without testing them first raises my eyebrows more than a little. You might as well make Dr Shipman their medical advisor.
    Given testing is so readiliy available now it seems utterly bizarre not to test people before moving them.
  • isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    For me, no, absolutely not.

    Besides numbers are relatively meaningless. The government have actually created what you might call a "level playing field" on immigration - making it harder for unskilled minimum wage Europeans to come here yes, but easier for skilled rest of the world nurses and others to come here instead.

    If we end up with fewer unskilled immigrants from Europe on Universal Credit income support and housing allowance, but more skilled nurses and others, then is that a bad thing?
    One of the biggest shortages we have is care workers. We seem only willing to pay minimum wage, or very close to it for that.
    I would have absolutely no problem in seeing care workers wages going up, as an alternative to importing more people to do the job at minimum wage.

    Care workers may not have the qualifications of nurses but they do a damned important job in difficult circumstances. If we can't fill the vacancies without increasing wages then that is supply and demand, market economics. I am OK with that. With the greatest of respect to other minimum wage jobs, I don't see why someone working 12 hour shifts in a care home looking after the vulnerable and the elderly, wiping people's bums and providing personal care and attention should only be worth the minimum wage.

    Should a care worker be on the same wage as a waitress who is earning tips from her tables? I don't think so.
    I would too, but try getting the funding for that through the Conservative party.
    That would be the same Conservative Party that has increased NHS expenditure to record levels and moved the responsibility of Care Homes into the Health Secretaries department, renaming it accordingly?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,833
    edited January 2021

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    For me, no, absolutely not.

    Besides numbers are relatively meaningless. The government have actually created what you might call a "level playing field" on immigration - making it harder for unskilled minimum wage Europeans to come here yes, but easier for skilled rest of the world nurses and others to come here instead.

    If we end up with fewer unskilled immigrants from Europe on Universal Credit income support and housing allowance, but more skilled nurses and others, then is that a bad thing?
    One of the biggest shortages we have is care workers. We seem only willing to pay minimum wage, or very close to it for that.
    I would have absolutely no problem in seeing care workers wages going up, as an alternative to importing more people to do the job at minimum wage.

    Care workers may not have the qualifications of nurses but they do a damned important job in difficult circumstances. If we can't fill the vacancies without increasing wages then that is supply and demand, market economics. I am OK with that. With the greatest of respect to other minimum wage jobs, I don't see why someone working 12 hour shifts in a care home looking after the vulnerable and the elderly, wiping people's bums and providing personal care and attention should only be worth the minimum wage.

    Should a care worker be on the same wage as a waitress who is earning tips from her tables? I don't think so.
    I think we can easily go further and say our system of economic rewards is completely broken. Key workers to keep us going this year will be earning less on average than the rest of us, are probably treated worse and have fewer career progression opportunities.

    Not sure how it can all be addressed but we should make a significant effort to try once covid is done.
  • Blimey - Man U go 3 points clear. Who saw that coming back in October?

    Marcus Rashford for SPotY.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
    It matters because millions of people think they have been promised something different by Brexit, and when migration doesnt reduce, and might even grow they will lose further trust in politics and be open for more radicalisation as we see in the US.

    It would be far better if our politicians were willing to be honest about migration, but they wont, and Brexit would not have happened if they had done so.

    It is irrelevant. Immigration - and emigration, for that matter - is going to crater for the next few years, because Covid. There will be so many restrictions on movement, let alone changing your nationality, that most will be put off.

    The problem over the next years is more likely to be the LACK of migration - foreign students unwilling to travel, tourists still too cautious to go abroad, especially to the developing world (where Covid will surely remain an issue, even if we are lucky enough to defeat it at home).

    IF Brexit was meant to solve immigration, Covid has just rendered the subject utterly trivial, anyway.

    I predict the migrants still crossing the Channel will trickle to a stop. Why? Because they have to get into the EU *somewhere* first - usually Greece, Spain or Italy - and these nations will start violently deterring boats that get near their coastlines, because of the Covid threat
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    MikeL said:

    NYT Political Correspondent just said on CNN that:

    Mitch McConnell is "pleased" that Trump is being impeached and he might vote to convict Trump.

    What a tease. Do it - you're in your late 70s, even for the USA you'll probably retire after this term, and those with no backbone probably need someone like you to give to go ahead to do it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
    It matters because millions of people think they have been promised something different by Brexit, and when migration doesnt reduce, and might even grow they will lose further trust in politics and be open for more radicalisation as we see in the US.

    It would be far better if our politicians were willing to be honest about migration, but they wont, and Brexit would not have happened if they had done so.

    Well, yes but the original sin, the dishonesty, was Tony Blair's, or his governments - They must have known allowing A8 accession would rip the manual labour and trades markets apart, but pretended barely any immigrants would bother coming to work here for 8 times their salary. Really that would have been the best time for a referendum, not on EU membership, but the scale of economic migration allowed from the former communist countries, whose economies were nothing like those of the previous EU countries. That is where it all started - before that, bendy bananas, cms or inches - no one cared except some lofty fringe of the Conservative Party, Nigel Farage and James Goldsmith
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Litigation exam tomorrow. Both criminal and civil. :#

    How do you think you did on the last one? I'm not wasting good wishes if it won't help :)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,451

    Foxy said:

    Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    First wave, the government did deals with private hospitals (which weren't needed in the end) Are we not repeating that? I seemed to remember the cost they negotiated wasn't bad for the service provided.
    Mostly the private hospitals are being used for Non Covid work such as breast and bowel cancer, hip replacements etc. They are not really set up for medical patients as opposed to surgical.

    Sending patients to nursing homes without testing them first raises my eyebrows more than a little. You might as well make Dr Shipman their medical advisor.
    Given testing is so readiliy available now it seems utterly bizarre not to test people before moving them.
    But if you test them they might be positive and you can’t then move them... Don’t ask the question, empty bed!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,441
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Perhaps, but, much to your chagrin, Gove and Boris won the EU referendum, to the surprise of most, and then, when finally given the chance, they won an unexpected yet handsome majority in 2019, and then, also against expectations, they delivered Brexit.

    None of those things happened in Scotland, and Scots are not in favour of any of them.

    Apart from that, brilliant post Sean
    I'm not this "Sean" character and I'll ask you to cease making this comparison. Ta
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    MikeL said:

    House Republican vote on impeachment will be a free vote - ie not whipped.

    Hard to think those who voted to object to certification will be amendable. So it was, what, 70-80 who did vote to certify? Are they genuinely angry enough to vote to inpeach in large numbers?
  • noneoftheabove - how is this for a solution?

    Fewer immigrants from the EU on minimum wage doing care work etc while getting paid housing allownace and universal credit by the government.

    More skilled immigrants from the rest of the world not claiming welfare and paying taxes instead.

    The money saved on not paying universal credit, and received in taxes, goes on funding a pay rise for care workers so they're not on minimum wage.

    No change in net immigration, no change in the Exchequer either, but we have more skills and our care staff are better paid.

    Win, win?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682

    Foxy said:

    Thousands of hospital patients are set to be discharged early to hotels or their own homes in order to free up beds for Covid-19 sufferers needing life-or-death care, the Guardian has learned.

    Hospital chiefs in England intend to start discharging patients early on a scale never seen before, as an emergency measure to create “extra emergency contingency capacity” and stop parts of the NHS collapsing, senior sources said.

    Documents seen by the Guardian also reveal that the NHS is asking care homes to start accepting Covid patients directly from hospitals and without a recent negative test, as long as they have been in isolation for 14 days and have shown no new symptoms.

    Under the “home and hotel” plan, patients discharged early into a hotel will receive help from voluntary organisations such as St John Ambulance and the British Red Cross, armed forces medical personnel and any available NHS staff.

    The London Hotel Group (LHG), which owns the Best Western chain, has started taking Covid-positive patients from King’s College Hospital in south London and is looking after them in its hotel in nearby Croydon. It is in talks with 20 other NHS trusts and says it could provide 5,000 beds.

    Families will be expected to play a key role in monitoring and caring for loved ones who are sent home days or weeks before they would otherwise have left hospital, with support from health professionals where possible.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    It'll be a real kick in the knackers if you get Covid-19 then are moved into a Premier Inn, Travelodge, or Britannia chain hotel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/12/hospital-patients-to-be-sent-to-hotels-to-free-up-beds-for-critical-covid-patients

    First wave, the government did deals with private hospitals (which weren't needed in the end) Are we not repeating that? I seemed to remember the cost they negotiated wasn't bad for the service provided.
    Mostly the private hospitals are being used for Non Covid work such as breast and bowel cancer, hip replacements etc. They are not really set up for medical patients as opposed to surgical.

    Sending patients to nursing homes without testing them first raises my eyebrows more than a little. You might as well make Dr Shipman their medical advisor.
    Given testing is so readiliy available now it seems utterly bizarre not to test people before moving them.
    But if you test them they might be positive and you can’t then move them... Don’t ask the question, empty bed!
    I know you are being tongue in cheek but moving one infected patioent to a care home is just asking for several others to come back in a week or two.

    (Unless all the other care home residents have been vaccinated already?)
  • OT Betfair Trump to leave office before his term is up (inauguration is Wednesday week, btw) has been fluctuating a lot this afternoon, though generally moving towards no.

    Yes 13.5
    No 1.07

    Trump to leave office in 2021 is 1.01 (all the 1.02 went yesterday) although there is a small amount of 2025 to be laid at 75.

    Now there has been a move back on Trump leaving early.
    Yes 9.2
    No 1.11
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021

    I believe we are on the right side of this particular issue. I really don't understand what the EU think they are doing as far as China is concerned.
    Doing business.

    The hard nosed, unsentimental side of the EU was occasionally advanced by, I think, williamglenn, as reason for its inevitability.

    Not that we've previously had much to be proud about in that respect.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,682
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    NYT Political Correspondent just said on CNN that:

    Mitch McConnell is "pleased" that Trump is being impeached and he might vote to convict Trump.

    What a tease. Do it - you're in your late 70s, even for the USA you'll probably retire after this term, and those with no backbone probably need someone like you to give to go ahead to do it.
    Also, he has his legacy to consider.

    How does he want to be perceived in history - Trump's stooge or Trump's nemesis?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
    It matters because millions of people think they have been promised something different by Brexit, and when migration doesnt reduce, and might even grow they will lose further trust in politics and be open for more radicalisation as we see in the US.

    It would be far better if our politicians were willing to be honest about migration, but they wont, and Brexit would not have happened if they had done so.

    Well, yes but the original sin, the dishonesty, was Tony Blair's, or his governments - They must have known allowing A8 accession would rip the manual labour and trades markets apart, but pretended barely any immigrants would bother coming to work here for 8 times their salary. Really that would have been the best time for a referendum, not on EU membership, but the scale of economic migration allowed from the former communist countries, whose economies were nothing like those of the previous EU countries. That is where it all started - before that, bendy bananas, cms or inches - no one cared except some lofty fringe of the Conservative Party, Nigel Farage and James Goldsmith
    They didn't know. They commissioned research which suggested few would come and transitional controls were unnecessary. That research turned out to be wrong but it wasn't a conspiracy. This is all fairly well known.
  • Blimey - Man U go 3 points clear. Who saw that coming back in October?

    Marcus Rashford for SPotY.
    Unfortunately his game has been very poor recently

    Maybe his attention has been elsewhere

    It is difficult to find the balance
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,092
    edited January 2021
    Who could have predicted such a front page...one day of 150k done, instant "its a disaster". Its like a T20 where the team only score 4 off the first over and instantly claiming thats it, game over.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349121117064212481?s=19
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    "We take back control of migration policy

    Done. The new policy may be arbitrary and counterproductive, but a full 10/10 is merited on this commitment."

    The only one that mattered, as it was the reason there was a referendum, and the reason Leave won.

    Does the scoring change if we dont reduce migration over the next decade or two? (which we wont!)

    Or did we just want the theoretical power to control it?

    I would have been happy with the theoretical power to control it and staying in the EU if that were possible, but if Leaving doesn't reduce immigration over the next decade or two I would think the score would change, because most people probably voted Leave to see the numbers come down
    I wonder how many realise 5.4m Hong Kongers have the right to UK citizenship now, that's about 50 years worth of EU migration.

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/qa-the-new-route-to-citizenship-for-some-hong-kong-residents/
    Why does it matter?

    I think any Hong Kongers who come here are most likely to be a fantastic and welcome addition to the country.

    But the idea all 5.4 million will come here is preposterous. Until recently 446 million people had the free movement right to move to the UK, doesn't mean they all would either. So considering Hong Kongers and the fact the Irish have the right to do so too the numbers with the right to do so now are down by about 98%.
    It matters because millions of people think they have been promised something different by Brexit, and when migration doesnt reduce, and might even grow they will lose further trust in politics and be open for more radicalisation as we see in the US.

    It would be far better if our politicians were willing to be honest about migration, but they wont, and Brexit would not have happened if they had done so.

    Well, yes but the original sin, the dishonesty, was Tony Blair's, or his governments - They must have known allowing A8 accession would rip the manual labour and trades markets apart, but pretended barely any immigrants would bother coming to work here for 8 times their salary. Really that would have been the best time for a referendum, not on EU membership, but the scale of economic migration allowed from the former communist countries, whose economies were nothing like those of the previous EU countries. That is where it all started - before that, bendy bananas, cms or inches - no one cared except some lofty fringe of the Conservative Party, Nigel Farage and James Goldsmith
    They didn't know. They commissioned research which suggested few would come and transitional controls were unnecessary. That research turned out to be wrong but it wasn't a conspiracy. This is all fairly well known.
    Who did that research? They must have been grossly incompetent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    Who could have predicted such a front page...one day of 150k done, instant "its a disaster".

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1349121117064212481?s=19

    Was the target for a specific number of vaccinations today? Otherwise how can it be described as failed. Why am I not surprised the UK's relative success isn't being highlighted in the media.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    NYT Political Correspondent just said on CNN that:

    Mitch McConnell is "pleased" that Trump is being impeached and he might vote to convict Trump.

    What a tease. Do it - you're in your late 70s, even for the USA you'll probably retire after this term, and those with no backbone probably need someone like you to give to go ahead to do it.
    Also, he has his legacy to consider.

    How does he want to be perceived in history - Trump's stooge or Trump's nemesis?
    Probably prefer to be perceived as the man shameless enough to (successfully) prevent Obama from nominating a SC Justice for a reason, then take the exact opposite position to ensure Trump could appoint another in time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Have they said people can't talk about it? No, it's just that it shouldn't be a focus. You can't blame them for reacting to it though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Scott_xP said:
    Glad to see she has moderated her view in the past week, it would have been one hell of a climb down. Hopefully others are emboldened by Trump's presenting himself as the victim in all this.
This discussion has been closed.