Bet she's regretting leaving the level 4 lockdown until Boxing Day when the findings about the new strain came in the weekend before. Cases in Scotland on a steep upward trajectory as well the last few days.
Yes, I've been among those who up to now have said that everyone I know has been following the rules. I know a lot of exceptions over Christmas of the kind she describes and even some surprise that I was really spending it on my own. Most of them seem keen to be compliant again now, but I do expect trouble in the next week's figures.
I spent Xmas with my daughter. Sons were with their father.
NY's Eve I spent alone. The disadvantage of living halfway up a mountainside is that when the ice comes it is pretty much impossible to make it here so Daughter had to stay at the home of her chef who she sees every day anyway. Was she breaking the rules? Yes - but what was the alternative? Sleeping in her car in sub-zero temperatures? Risking a dangerous accident trying to get home?
I really hope the weather does not get worse as we really will be trapped here if that happens.
Anyway I expect to be shielding for a good few months now. In fact, I feel quite scared, to be honest. I have little confidence in the government re the vaccination programme, based on past performance. But it would be nice if they could surprise on the upside for once.
I hope your lack of confidence on the vaccination programme is misplaced @Cyclefree. See my earlier post from 20:13 on why I think there are reasons to be positive.
Hang-on in there, it might be worse before it gets better but by the middle of the year I think everyone at significant risk (over 50 or with a health condition) will be vaccinated - possibly many more.
Similar to England on a population basis is it not.
The US averages about 7,500 deaths on a normal day. If they're now at 12,500+, that would be staggering, a 70+% increase in the average daily death rate.
I suspect that 5.7k daily death figure includes a lot of catch up from last week. the US has been averaging 2-3k deaths per day according to Worldometer.
Yes, I've been among those who up to now have said that everyone I know has been following the rules. I know a lot of exceptions over Christmas of the kind she describes and even some surprise that I was really spending it on my own. Most of them seem keen to be compliant again now, but I do expect trouble in the next week's figures.
I spent Xmas with my daughter. Sons were with their father.
NY's Eve I spent alone. The disadvantage of living halfway up a mountainside is that when the ice comes it is pretty much impossible to make it here so Daughter had to stay at the home of her chef who she sees every day anyway. Was she breaking the rules? Yes - but what was the alternative? Sleeping in her car in sub-zero temperatures? Risking a dangerous accident trying to get home?
I really hope the weather does not get worse as we really will be trapped here if that happens.
Anyway I expect to be shielding for a good few months now. In fact, I feel quite scared, to be honest. I have little confidence in the government re the vaccination programme, based on past performance. But it would be nice if they could surprise on the upside for once.
Don't budge unless you really have to, January is going to be pretty awful.
There is a conflict though between the rich left winger who tells the world how they are happy to pay more tax whilst guffawing “they are literally voting to make themselves poorer!” when the working class vote against more GDP-that-they-don’t-see-increasing immigration
Well I don't approve of guffawing. That's point one.
Number two, I see what you're driving at but I don't think it works.
Rich people voting knowingly to make themselves poorer is a good thing. But poor people voting unknowingly to do so? No. Not so great.
And to complete the picture, what about poor people voting on identity grounds regardless of material considerations?
There is a conflict though between the rich left winger who tells the world how they are happy to pay more tax whilst guffawing “they are literally voting to make themselves poorer!” when the working class vote against more GDP-that-they-don’t-see-increasing immigration
Well I don't approve of guffawing. That's point one.
In DC under the Big Top (aka Capitol Dome) the US House of Representatives is voting in groups, which I think is to help maintain social distancing. (Most specially from mask-adverse GOP wingnuts).
Voting is being done alphabetically, hey have now finished "Group 3" which has gotten them into the Ks.
Have no clue what the tally is right now. Real question is, how many Democrats will NOT vote for Nancy Pelosi?
And NOTE there is important distinction whether they vote for another person (not GOPer Kevin McCarthy) OR simple record themselves a present.
I'd have thought Pelosi non votes (Dem) would be ... low ? Even if you're not a fan there's no point rocking the boat at this point as she's off in the 2022 elections anyway.
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
I suspect at the end of the day all major western countries will end up with similar mortality rates. The biggest factor might well be how quickly and fully the populations can be vaccinated.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
I hope you are jesting....
I'm a fiscal conservative, we need to reduce government spending, so let us start with that.
I mean I don't ask the working class to help pay for my new car.
You do if your new car is electric. Single parents all over Coventry cannot afford a Christmas goose after they've paid for poshos to drive Teslas.
Nope, it's another one man global warming machine.
The car I'm buying for my father in the summer will be a hybrid or full electric.
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
If the two countries record deaths similarly, yes, but I'd want to see some 'excess deaths' figures before deciding on that one.
My guess is both are underreporting but the US more so than us.
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
Pretty sure they went past us at one point, then we went past them, and they've been closing the gap again until our recent surges. It seems likely we'll be together in a group with USA, Italy, Spain, France, etc, with some a little better or wose, but broadly inline with one another.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
That research I linked to on Friday found the three most effective interventions were closing schools, stopping large gatherings, and closing down businesses. Currently we only have the second, although the extended school holiday looks likely to deliver the first. We still have more business activity than last spring, partly due to looser restrictions and partly because businesses have become more confident and imaginative at working within or around the rules.
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I hope you're right Ben and fair play for being prepared to take a punt. I note you're also not normally supportive of the Tories.
No, I am not. But if they come out of this smelling of roses because the vaccination programme has been a huge success I'll be happy.
Saddened but not entirely surprised to see PBers flirting with curfews while accepting they are ineffective - they are attracted to them because of the “strong message” they create.
Are there any limits to the skin-shuddering attacks on human liberty these people are willing to entertain?
Put the pressure, effort and focus on the vaccination programme, not “sending a message” to unruly subjects.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
I expect our true case numbers are very similiar. Our first wave dramatically understated our cases but on testing we're (no laughing at the back) actually one of the most comprehensive nations in the world now. Our Jan 5th numbers are going to be grim (Tuesday + New Year unwind)
People may not agree with it all, but he is right that things like cancel culture are not purely a left wing thing. Anymore than virtue signalling or snowflakery. Notably, he clarifies that 'unlike some on the left' he doesn't deny that cancel culture exists. That's useful, since acknowledging it exists on one's own side makes pointing it out on the other more effective.
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
I’ve been expecting the fast virus to hit Spain with a vengeance but numbers are high but stable with no evidence of its impact. The automonous communities are nervous and are tightening restrictions slowly but you can still get a meal and a drink out if you want.
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I agree with a lot of that and I think I'd add that the UK isn't afraid of pushing public health measures at the expense of individuals, see the decision to extend the delta between jabs to 12 weeks.
I'll put the numbers up tomorrow once I've gone through them properly but I think our strategy will result in 40% more people having immunity be two jabs three weeks apart. That's going to be an absolutely huge win for us with limited doses. I think other European countries will have to follow suit.
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
That 21 day gap from cases to death does rather guarantee an awful January, even if no further infections occurred.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
There is a news form of residency card challenge. TIE introduced for those who didn’t have their residency, Spain made it clear if you have a green residency certificate that was fine as long as it was legible. Why do people insist on calling Brits abroad expats? We’re immigrants, I don’t hear about expat Moroccans working in the fields. Or are the British even against their own immigration. The best explanation given the info available is that it was a mistake by the UK staff.
Imagine the fuss if EU citizens resident in the UK had been denied boarding flights to the UK?
I was denied boarding for a flight from the UK to South Africa, as my passport didn't have two pages next to each other than were blank.
They had to unload my bags. The whole plane load of people were delayed about 40 minutes because Virgin decided they didn't want to risk flying me to SA as you are required to have two empty pages of your passport side-by-side.
Saddened but not entirely surprised to see PBers flirting with curfews while accepting they are ineffective - they are attracted to them because of the “strong message” they create.
Are there any limits to the skin-shuddering attacks on human liberty these people are willing to entertain?
Put the pressure, effort and focus on the vaccination programme, not “sending a message” to unruly subjects.
Both are required. But yes the vaccination programme is the biggest priority - nothing, but nothing, should be allowed to stand in the way of that.
Saddened but not entirely surprised to see PBers flirting with curfews while accepting they are ineffective - they are attracted to them because of the “strong message” they create.
Are there any limits to the skin-shuddering attacks on human liberty these people are willing to entertain?
Put the pressure, effort and focus on the vaccination programme, not “sending a message” to unruly subjects.
I certainly don't want a curfew or would agree with one. I'm just trying to consider what governments might consider imposing in their "need to be seen to be doing things" mode.
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I agree with a lot of that and I think I'd add that the UK isn't afraid of pushing public health measures at the expense of individuals, see the decision to extend the delta between jabs to 12 weeks.
I'll put the numbers up tomorrow once I've gone through them properly but I think our strategy will result in 40% more people having immunity be two jabs three weeks apart. That's going to be an absolutely huge win for us with limited doses. I think other European countries will have to follow suit.
I suspect that as vaccine availability increases, they'll start bringing the doses closer together, especially for older cohorts.
*Still*, there's no doubt that from a national health perspective, increasing the gap between the doses to maximise the numbers with some protection is an absolute no brainer.
A while back the US death rate was much lower than ours, and PB’ers rightly suggested this would change as their case rate fed through. This took longer than you’d expect from the supposed 21 day average from test to death, but it happened sure enough. Now we are starting to pull away again, and it seems unavoidable that the explosion in cases the last ten days is going to propel us to near the worst end of the table. We’ve already overtaken Spain.
Pretty sure they went past us at one point, then we went past them, and they've been closing the gap again until our recent surges. It seems likely we'll be together in a group with USA, Italy, Spain, France, etc, with some a little better or wose, but broadly inline with one another.
Our new case numbers now are way out of line with all except the US. You may be right, eventually, if the new variant spreads throughout Europe. Current case numbers suggest it originated here - not just identified here - much of Europe now has very tight regulations (e.g. in Italy you have to fill in a form to be out of your home) and it will depend on whether they have acted quick enough.
Stemming our currently exceptional case rate depends mostly on cracking on with vaccination.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
I expect our true case numbers are very similiar. Our first wave dramatically understated our cases but on testing we're (no laughing at the back) actually one of the most comprehensive nations in the world now. Our Jan 5th numbers are going to be grim (Tuesday + New Year unwind)
I agree this week's case numbers will be grim, but I'm hoping it will be the peak of the epidemic both because the tier 4 restrictions and school holidays should start having an effect and because the grim numbers should spur further action.
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I agree with a lot of that and I think I'd add that the UK isn't afraid of pushing public health measures at the expense of individuals, see the decision to extend the delta between jabs to 12 weeks.
I'll put the numbers up tomorrow once I've gone through them properly but I think our strategy will result in 40% more people having immunity be two jabs three weeks apart. That's going to be an absolutely huge win for us with limited doses. I think other European countries will have to follow suit.
I look forward to that. And also to the NYT re-writing this article:
"Britain Opens Door to Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Worrying Experts"
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I agree with a lot of that and I think I'd add that the UK isn't afraid of pushing public health measures at the expense of individuals, see the decision to extend the delta between jabs to 12 weeks.
I'll put the numbers up tomorrow once I've gone through them properly but I think our strategy will result in 40% more people having immunity be two jabs three weeks apart. That's going to be an absolutely huge win for us with limited doses. I think other European countries will have to follow suit.
I look forward to that. And also to the NYT re-writing this article:
"Britain Opens Door to Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Worrying Experts"
Saddened but not entirely surprised to see PBers flirting with curfews while accepting they are ineffective - they are attracted to them because of the “strong message” they create.
Are there any limits to the skin-shuddering attacks on human liberty these people are willing to entertain?
Put the pressure, effort and focus on the vaccination programme, not “sending a message” to unruly subjects.
Both are required. But yes the vaccination programme is the biggest priority - nothing, but nothing, should be allowed to stand in the way of that.
I’m well up for volunteering and placing myself at higher risk of infection to help the vaccination effort. The government must focus on mobilising the young and healthy and JFDI.
Pelosi 187 McCarthy 189 Other 2 (1 for Hakeem Jeffries, 1 for Tammy Duckworth) Present 0
Not sure how many names left on alphabet, but not many.
However, number of members who were called have NOT voted. Some are absent, but others are still waiting in the wings. For example, several Democrats who were likely to vote either "present" if not for some other than Pelosi of McC.
What extra can be done? Well the train I was on yesterday quite clearly said "Essential journeys only." For quite a few that encompassed a trip to the MetroCentre with large, extended family and friends to get a MacDonalds or a KFC to eat on the way back.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Trump will leave office in a fortnight as an international laughing stock. Nobody should be scared of this pathetic clown.
I'm not scared of him, I'm worried he is enabled so much, and what people who would enable that would do that is within their power.
The USA is very lucky they have constitutionally mandated elections every 4 years, and also that the power of the presidency simply disappears as a matter of law (Even if say Biden AND Harris died) when the term ends. The UK actually has neither of these safeguards. The septennial act, {as amended} (Forget the FTPA for a second) could be amended to ten years (Or longer !) if a Trump like figure emerged and had enough supplicant MPs here. Edit: One thing we have is a very fast election turn around so there's simply not the space for conspiracy theories to grow as they have in the USA this cycle.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere.
Closure of places of organised worship. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
And better public education, given the comment in the article that some people still don't know the symptoms of covid.
I'm still of the opinion that tier 4 plus the two weeks of school non returns for b tier 4+ is turning the tide and will turn the tide if given the chance, in those places where it has been applied. Kent has turned, Essex and London are turning, other places will turn in the order they entered tier 4. Additional measures within the tiers can give an extra squeeze and anything sensible in this respect is welcome, but we're not fair away with what we have, even for variant COVID.
The problem we have now is substantially in areas that were put into low tiers at three beginning of December. Those places on the worst trajectories (e.g. those that would breach 1k per 100k with 2 weeks of their current growth) are primarily places that were tier 2 out of lockdown: Cumbria, York, Merseyside, Northampton, Cornwall, IoW, parts of Hampshire. One could put Essex and London areas whose trajectories aren't yet suppressing them below 1k into this basket - the best predictor of current infection trajectory is the tier you were in on December 4th.
But, I wouldn't be complacent for tier 3 areas in the North - trajectories can turn quickly (Barrow was holding steady just a few days ago and is now doubling weekly), Tier 4 needs to be the national base now and I'd delay re-opening primary schools in more of the bad trajectory areas tonight. Still plan for the 18th and mass testing, but acknowledge the fluidity of that - if we can do schools mass testing and that is the way back, go for it, keep it as plan A, but step with care and make sure it is going to work. The 18th could yet look a lot better.
Note that for US House election of Speaker there is one vacancy, the seat of the Republican member-elect from Louisiana (runoff winner) who passed away last month before he could be sworn in. Also absent are two other GOPers who have contracted COVID, and one octogenarian Democrat with pancreatic cancer (Alcee Hastings of FL).
Actually they don't, as they've changed it again. 37% allocated by FPTP, 63% proportional (without AMS style deduction of FPTP seats). Should still give the biggest parties a substantial boost then.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Don’t give them ideas
If they're not drawing up lists like that, they're not doing their job. Although just going back to what we did in the March lockdown (plus masks) would probably be easiest to communicate and get compliance with.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Don’t give them ideas
The U.K. got all through that list, down to bans on being more than a few miles from home, back in March.
Companies such as Amazon voluntarily stopped delivering non-essential items to get everyone delivering food, supplies and medicines.
Serious question: have we had a header on how to do an enquiry?
Reflecting on the happenings wrt to the Grenfell enquiry, I am wondering whether it is possible, or if "Judge-led enquiry" is about to become a devalued phrase.
I'm still of the opinion that tier 4 plus the two weeks of school non returns for b tier 4+ is turning the tide and will turn the tide if given the chance, in those places where it has been applied. Kent has turned, Essex and London are turning, other places will turn in the order they entered tier 4. Additional measures within the tiers can give an extra squeeze and anything sensible in this respect is welcome, but we're not fair away with what we have, even for variant COVID.
The problem we have now is substantially in areas that were put into low tiers at three beginning of December. Those places on the worst trajectories (e.g. those that would breach 1k per 100k with 2 weeks of their current growth) are primarily places that were tier 2 out of lockdown: Cumbria, York, Merseyside, Northampton, Cornwall, IoW, parts of Hampshire. One could put Essex and London areas whose trajectories aren't yet suppressing them below 1k into this basket - the best predictor of current infection trajectory is the tier you were in on December 4th.
But, I wouldn't be complacent for tier 3 areas in the North - trajectories can turn quickly (Barrow was holding steady just a few days ago and is now doubling weekly), Tier 4 needs to be the national base now and I'd delay re-opening primary schools in more of the bad trajectory areas tonight. Still plan for the 18th and mass testing, but acknowledge the fluidity of that - if we can do schools mass testing and that is the way back, go for it, keep it as plan A, but step with care and make sure it is going to work. The 18th could yet look a lot better.
On the IOW we’ve gone from T1 to T3 to T4 in a fortnight. And it certainly feels different now. Prior we were lucky in that the virus felt far away and anecdotes about people we knew who were affected were few, and friend of a friend of a friend type stories. Now, the people across the road are isolating because of an event they went to with an outbreak, the person round the corner is indoors ill, and most people have stories of people they know directly who have tested positive.
Hopefully you are right that tighter restrictions will send this into reverse soon.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Was already factoring in some of these to the current position already anyway, but rules may vary in different regions.
There's a small few other ones in there that are sensible. Mostly they're just stuff to say you're doing something - they're desperate measures. Not many of these are going to be statistically significant in the R calculation. Purely off the top of my head, many of these are from regions that didn't particularly suppress the virus well first time round. Mostly they're just going to piss a significant section of the population off even more.
Probably only the last one, if you've got the people to enforce/police it, would be obviously effective.
I stand by the thinking that other than schools/unis we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for things to take any meaningful chunks out of the R rate.
I still think positivity data is telling an unduly bleak picture, because during the holiday period people will be far more reluctant to do the sort of curious asymptomatic tests that they would have been keen to do in the week or two prior.
There is a conflict though between the rich left winger who tells the world how they are happy to pay more tax whilst guffawing “they are literally voting to make themselves poorer!” when the working class vote against more GDP-that-they-don’t-see-increasing immigration
Well I don't approve of guffawing. That's point one.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Don’t give them ideas
If they're not drawing up lists like that, they're not doing their job. Although just going back to what we did in the March lockdown (plus masks) would probably be easiest to communicate and get compliance with.
Wrong. All of this sabre-rattling allows the government to show it is “doing stuff”, and dilutes the focus on the vaccination programme: which is the only way out of this.
Not to mention the horrendous effects such policies would have on mental health, basic civil liberties, social interaction, local economies and physical health.
I still think positivity data is telling an unduly bleak picture, because during the holiday period people will be far more reluctant to do the sort of curious asymptomatic tests that they would have been keen to do in the week or two prior.
Do you think there's much of that? I think it's more likely people with low fevers and a bit of a cough not bothering to go for a test when they can try just sitting it out at home.
Cases are going up almost vertically, but deaths are not at all - so far. Either within a couple of weeks we're in for the most almighty catastrophe, or the pattern is going to stay different. If the NHS is overwhelmed though, who will be able to say what the pattern is.
Basically, if this BBC article is anything to go by then the well is pretty empty in terms of "tighter" restrictions: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55524764
Not even close.
What do you think may still be to come then? Just out of interest.
A quick list from the top of my head. These have all been seen elsewhere. In rough order of severity.
Closure of places of organised worship. Ban on weddings Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus. Ban on all public meetings between households Ban on attending funerals. Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves. Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed. Ban on visits to care homes Ban on takeaway food collections Ban on being more than 3 miles from home. Night-time curfew Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries. Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets. Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Was already factoring in some of these to the current position already anyway, but rules may vary in different regions.
There's a small few other ones in there that are sensible. Mostly they're just stuff to say you're doing something - they're desperate measures. Not many of these are going to be statistically significant in the R calculation. Purely off the top of my head, many of these are from regions that didn't particularly suppress the virus well first time round. Mostly they're just going to piss a significant section of the population off even more.
Probably only the last one, if you've got the people to enforce/police it, would be obviously effective.
I stand by the thinking that other than schools/unis we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for things to take any meaningful chunks out of the R rate.
It will be impossible to mobilise vaccination volunteers if you preface such a programme with an oppressive regime that suggests it’s deadly to leave your home, never mind encounter other people.
We are in the midst of a terrible second wave of deadly pandemic and what's Jezza campaigning on...i am sure it is at thr forefront of all vulnerable oldies and parents who worried about kids going back to school (or not).
Cases are going up as good as vertically, but deaths are not at all - so far. Either within a couple of weeks we're in for the most almighty catastrophe, or the pattern is going to stay different. If the NHS is overwhelmed though, who will be able to say what the pattern is.
As Foxy said deaths lag
The good news is that the death rate is lower now than it was in March
The bad news is we have to worry about the scenes in Italy being replicated here in a couple of weeks if the hospitals are overwhelmed.
Cases are going up almost vertically, but deaths are not at all - so far. Either within a couple of weeks we're in for the most almighty catastrophe, or the pattern is going to stay different. If the NHS is overwhelmed though, who will be able to say what the pattern is.
With over a million including nearly a million of the most vulnerable already vaccinated hopefully we will soon start seeing a divergence between case numbers and deaths.
I still think positivity data is telling an unduly bleak picture, because during the holiday period people will be far more reluctant to do the sort of curious asymptomatic tests that they would have been keen to do in the week or two prior.
Do you think there's much of that? I think it's more likely people with low fevers and a bit of a cough not bothering to go for a test when they can try just sitting it out at home.
I think a fair few people without symptoms will have got a test shortly before Christmas as reassurance for their plans to see friends and relatives - including some whose plans may have later been cancelled. That would depress the positivity rate. And instinctively, but with no evidence, I can’t see someone rushing out for a test the day after Boxing Day unless they had good reason.
Comments
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Cases by date reported doubled in little more than a week. (Cases by specimen date are on a Jan 1-4 holiday.)
Hang-on in there, it might be worse before it gets better but by the middle of the year I think everyone at significant risk (over 50 or with a health condition) will be vaccinated - possibly many more.
Number two, I see what you're driving at but I don't think it works.
Rich people voting knowingly to make themselves poorer is a good thing. But poor people voting unknowingly to do so? No. Not so great.
And to complete the picture, what about poor people voting on identity grounds regardless of material considerations?
Hmm. There's the rub.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/03/cancel-culture-is-not-the-preserve-of-the-left-just-ask-our-historians
The car I'm buying for my father in the summer will be a hybrid or full electric.
My guess is both are underreporting but the US more so than us.
Are there any limits to the skin-shuddering attacks on human liberty these people are willing to entertain?
Put the pressure, effort and focus on the vaccination programme, not “sending a message” to unruly subjects.
Our Jan 5th numbers are going to be grim (Tuesday + New Year unwind)
I'll put the numbers up tomorrow once I've gone through them properly but I think our strategy will result in 40% more people having immunity be two jabs three weeks apart. That's going to be an absolutely huge win for us with limited doses. I think other European countries will have to follow suit.
They had to unload my bags. The whole plane load of people were delayed about 40 minutes because Virgin decided they didn't want to risk flying me to SA as you are required to have two empty pages of your passport side-by-side.
*Still*, there's no doubt that from a national health perspective, increasing the gap between the doses to maximise the numbers with some protection is an absolute no brainer.
Stemming our currently exceptional case rate depends mostly on cracking on with vaccination.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1345820224063356930
US House roll call for Speaker has now reached the Ss, and so far only 2 votes recorded for someone NOT Pelosi or McCarthy.
"Britain Opens Door to Mix-and-Match Vaccinations, Worrying Experts"
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/health/coronavirus-vaccines-britain.html
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1345818548623405056
Pelosi 187
McCarthy 189
Other 2 (1 for Hakeem Jeffries, 1 for Tammy Duckworth)
Present 0
Not sure how many names left on alphabet, but not many.
However, number of members who were called have NOT voted. Some are absent, but others are still waiting in the wings. For example, several Democrats who were likely to vote either "present" if not for some other than Pelosi of McC.
Well the train I was on yesterday quite clearly said "Essential journeys only."
For quite a few that encompassed a trip to the MetroCentre with large, extended family and friends to get a MacDonalds or a KFC to eat on the way back.
Closure of places of organised worship.
Ban on weddings
Schools and universities closed. All non-essential staff to leave campus.
Ban on all public meetings between households
Ban on attending funerals.
Capacity restrictions in supermarkets, compulsory wearing of gloves.
Closure of all non-essential businesses where social distancing cannot be guaranteed.
Ban on visits to care homes
Ban on takeaway food collections
Ban on being more than 3 miles from home.
Night-time curfew
Ban on deliveries of non-essential items, drivers diverted to supermarket deliveries.
Ban on single-meal hot food deliveries, except to vulnerable, drivers reallocated to supermarkets.
Lockdown. Require permission in advance to leave home, for supermarket or pharmacy only.
Yet.
The Security Services will have been busy these four years.
Ahem.
The UK actually has neither of these safeguards. The septennial act, {as amended} (Forget the FTPA for a second) could be amended to ten years (Or longer !) if a Trump like figure emerged and had enough supplicant MPs here.
Edit: One thing we have is a very fast election turn around so there's simply not the space for conspiracy theories to grow as they have in the USA this cycle.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1345820479295205379
So if there are 428 members of US House lurking about the building this afternoon, as previously reported, that leave 47 who have yet to vote.
The problem we have now is substantially in areas that were put into low tiers at three beginning of December. Those places on the worst trajectories (e.g. those that would breach 1k per 100k with 2 weeks of their current growth) are primarily places that were tier 2 out of lockdown: Cumbria, York, Merseyside, Northampton, Cornwall, IoW, parts of Hampshire. One could put Essex and London areas whose trajectories aren't yet suppressing them below 1k into this basket - the best predictor of current infection trajectory is the tier you were in on December 4th.
But, I wouldn't be complacent for tier 3 areas in the North - trajectories can turn quickly (Barrow was holding steady just a few days ago and is now doubling weekly), Tier 4 needs to be the national base now and I'd delay re-opening primary schools in more of the bad trajectory areas tonight. Still plan for the 18th and mass testing, but acknowledge the fluidity of that - if we can do schools mass testing and that is the way back, go for it, keep it as plan A, but step with care and make sure it is going to work. The 18th could yet look a lot better.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1345839016848068608
Note that they include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and two others from The Squad.
Companies such as Amazon voluntarily stopped delivering non-essential items to get everyone delivering food, supplies and medicines.
Now going through the roll of members who didn't vote first time their name was called.
Hopefully you are right that tighter restrictions will send this into reverse soon.
3 for a Pfizer
Gets coat
There's a small few other ones in there that are sensible. Mostly they're just stuff to say you're doing something - they're desperate measures. Not many of these are going to be statistically significant in the R calculation. Purely off the top of my head, many of these are from regions that didn't particularly suppress the virus well first time round. Mostly they're just going to piss a significant section of the population off even more.
Probably only the last one, if you've got the people to enforce/police it, would be obviously effective.
I stand by the thinking that other than schools/unis we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for things to take any meaningful chunks out of the R rate.
Pelosi now ahead 213 to 207
Not to mention the horrendous effects such policies would have on mental health, basic civil liberties, social interaction, local economies and physical health.
As I and others warned on here Johnson's 'save xmas' policy has been a complete and utter catastrophe.
She notes that no sign that Tier 4 works. Who knows what the answer is now?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017
Pelosi = 216
McCarthy = 208
Others = 2 (Duckworth & Jeffries)
Present - 3
After telling their constituents they wouldn’t support Pelosi for Speaker last Congress…
5 House Democrats just went back on their promise and handed Pelosi the gavel for two more years of her failed and radical leadership.
The peak then would have been about double what it is now.
The good news is that the death rate is lower now than it was in March
The bad news is we have to worry about the scenes in Italy being replicated here in a couple of weeks if the hospitals are overwhelmed.
This is what happens when a fucking clown is in charge