If he wants to close schools for the longer term realistically he has to make the call by Wednesday.
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
He really isn’t. Teachers aren’t going to riot.
I was thinking parents would riot if they were forced to find childcare and sort out remote learning at less than 72 hours notice.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
Exactly the way I feel now as my boy’s school was closed weeks ago with zero notice. The entire thing is utterly shambolic. However, I feel schools must try to stay open at least for deprived children, who are likely to receive zero tuition at home.
When I consider lockdown decisions, I try to think not of myself as an antiquarian bookseller with a garden, by the sea, in lovely Dorset, but as a young, employed-on-minimum-wage single parent on the 13th floor of a tower block in Coventry. It must be simply hellish for some, and I have huge sympathy for anyone having to make that decision, let alone facing the consequences.
Pity you don't do that when you vote in general elections.
Should I be surprised that a Labour booster posts a snide comment?
I firmly believe that a market economy helps everyone more. And that a Labour government hinders that benefit, for all.
You deserve nothing more, Tory scum.
So single mothers on minimum wage in Coventry tower blocks drive your Tory vote too, Rob, do they? Well well. You live and learn.
But look, seriously, there was absolutely no inference of that wild and unpleasant "Tory Scum" abuse there from me. I simply sniff some falsity, that's all. Virtue signalling is not exclusive to the Left, you know. And neither is it a hanging offence.
So it's not legitimate to think how the various restrictions would impact others in society, and I should only think about how things affect me personally?
It's entirely legitimate - indeed admirable - for a wealthy person to make their political choices from the viewpoint not of how they impact themselves but how they impact the poorest and most vulnerable in society.
In fairness he's right both historically and in the modern sense.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
Your second sentence completely invalidates the first sentence. Bolting on Scots MPs as you put it means it is no longer an English Parliament by definition, so how can those completely contradictory sentences make sense?
That's the Blairite + Cameronite combined devolution settlement for you.
So he's not right historically then?
He was right historically in the sense that they simply added a few MPs from Scotland to the Engliosh Pmt whgich otherwise carried on as before (for instance, making no attempt to allow for any representation of the C of S in the HoL for instance).
Of course things evolved in between times, and the current situation is, erm, anomalous.
At this point it is semantics. Legally, the last English parliament sat in 1707.
On a point of order, the last English Parliament was summoned in 1529.
When it was summoned again in 1536, two other countries sent representatives.
Wales was one.
Does anyone know what the other country was?
France?
Gold star to the poster from the Sandpit. Calais and Tournai both sent representatives.
Genuine question - why can't we use some of the unused spaces that lockdown has produced. For example, we have a large banqueting hall just down the road from me - enough room for at least 2 spaced classes, one at each end of the hall. On a smaller note, the pub over the road has a function room that can take ca. 20 people spaced out - enough for a 6th form class - and already has the AV in place.
Wouldn't be the issue of moving the pupils/teachers between lessons.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
There are only 7,500 deaths (on average) per day in the USA.
So... either the UK has five times the population of the USA. Or, deaths are not 40,000 per day.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
"Dharma says the song is about eternal love, rather than suicide.[6] He used Romeo and Juliet to describe a couple who wanted to be together in the afterlife.[7] He guessed that "40,000 men and women" died each day, and the figure was used several times in the lyrics; this rate was 100,000 off the mark.[8]"
It's an American song and a stab at a worldwide stat.
Aaargh - I've got that guitar riff in my head now.
In fairness he's right both historically and in the modern sense.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
Your second sentence completely invalidates the first sentence. Bolting on Scots MPs as you put it means it is no longer an English Parliament by definition, so how can those completely contradictory sentences make sense?
That's the Blairite + Cameronite combined devolution settlement for you.
So he's not right historically then?
He was right historically in the sense that they simply added a few MPs from Scotland to the Engliosh Pmt whgich otherwise carried on as before (for instance, making no attempt to allow for any representation of the C of S in the HoL for instance).
Of course things evolved in between times, and the current situation is, erm, anomalous.
At this point it is semantics. Legally, the last English parliament sat in 1707.
On a point of order, the last English Parliament was summoned in 1529.
When it was summoned again in 1536, two other countries sent representatives.
Wales was one.
Does anyone know what the other country was?
France?
Gold star to the poster from the Sandpit. Calais and Tournai both sent representatives.
Lucky guess!
(I need the gold star though, currently sitting in an A&E waiting room as the wife, with a fever, takes a COVID test )
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
Indeed. My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier. 25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0) 35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0. 45 million done - end of restrictions.
Could be, yes. I think it depends more on hospital capacity (and specifically ICU capacity) than number jabbed. If either the lockdowns (if they ever actually become lockdowns) or the vaccinations release pressure on hospitals, unlocking a step becomes safer. Mind you, riding the wave of hospitals nearly-but-not-quite overwhelmed sounds pretty awful for the hospital staff.
--AS
I am, to be fair, running on the assumption that vaccination significantly decreases (at least) transmission, and thus the level of restrictions against any given required decrease in R will be changing.
I am interested to know whether and by how much hospital capacity has increased since March.
If not much this is as egregious a failing as anything else.
In fairness he's right both historically and in the modern sense.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
Your second sentence completely invalidates the first sentence. Bolting on Scots MPs as you put it means it is no longer an English Parliament by definition, so how can those completely contradictory sentences make sense?
That's the Blairite + Cameronite combined devolution settlement for you.
So he's not right historically then?
He was right historically in the sense that they simply added a few MPs from Scotland to the Engliosh Pmt whgich otherwise carried on as before (for instance, making no attempt to allow for any representation of the C of S in the HoL for instance).
Of course things evolved in between times, and the current situation is, erm, anomalous.
At this point it is semantics. Legally, the last English parliament sat in 1707.
On a point of order, the last English Parliament was summoned in 1529.
When it was summoned again in 1536, two other countries sent representatives.
Wales was one.
Does anyone know what the other country was?
France?
Gold star to the poster from the Sandpit. Calais and Tournai both sent representatives.
Lucky guess!
(I need the gold star though, currently sitting in an A&E waiting room as the wife, with a fever, takes a COVID test )
Jesus f*cking Christ. I hate Trump so much because he makes me break one of my cardinal rules, which is to regard people I disagree with politically as being worthy of nothing but contempt for their views and morals, which affects how objectively I can judge things. Some of those quotes, if accurate, despite everything in the last 4 years, remain gobsmacking.
A very telling aspect of the mindset is this bit:
In a statement, Mitchell[Trump Lawyer] said that Raffensperger’s office “has made many statements over the past two months that are simply not correct and everyone involved with the efforts on behalf of the President’s election challenge has said the same thing: show us your records on which you rely to make these statements that our numbers are wrong".
There's been any amount of public information, and checks and rechecks, but it is never enough.
Another example of how giving people information doesn't change anything if their mind is closed. They just demand information proving what they want, and if it does not exist it is claimed it is being hidden.
I'm surprised one of your cardinal rules is to regard people you disagree with politically as beneath contempt, I always thought you were one of the fairer ones on here.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
I think that the probability is that they can't spread it because if the virus is not getting into their cells and multiplying there how will they shed enough to infect someone?
But it is a trillion dollar question because it will determine how fast the economy can come back to anything like normal. I would suggest that a bit more urgency in determining the answer might be in order.
How would you propose we answer it? You can’t design a clinical trial on that basis
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
Indeed. My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier. 25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0) 35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0. 45 million done - end of restrictions.
Could be, yes. I think it depends more on hospital capacity (and specifically ICU capacity) than number jabbed. If either the lockdowns (if they ever actually become lockdowns) or the vaccinations release pressure on hospitals, unlocking a step becomes safer. Mind you, riding the wave of hospitals nearly-but-not-quite overwhelmed sounds pretty awful for the hospital staff.
--AS
I am, to be fair, running on the assumption that vaccination significantly decreases (at least) transmission, and thus the level of restrictions against any given required decrease in R will be changing.
I am interested to know whether and by how much hospital capacity has increased since March.
If not much this is as egregious a failing as anything else.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Yes but the cost of letting the epidemic go out of control should be part of the calculus. You get the extra death AND the extra damage, which can be avoided by intervening early. That's the mistake people are repeatedly making.
I accept there is a theoretical possibility of intervening too early and too hard. It hasn't happened yet while people continue to intervene too late and too ineffectually.
I think it's one of practicality. Once you are locked down and you have, say, eradication as your aim, you can't really un lock down until the virus is eradicated.
I would say it's a question of necessity rather than practicality. You lock down because you need to. You wouldn't do it otherwise. When and how you unwind the lockdown (assuming you are doing the right thing by going early and hard) is a judgment call, maybe more of the type you are talking about.
Jesus f*cking Christ. I hate Trump so much because he makes me break one of my cardinal rules, which is to regard people I disagree with politically as being worthy of nothing but contempt for their views and morals, which affects how objectively I can judge things. Some of those quotes, if accurate, despite everything in the last 4 years, remain gobsmacking.
A very telling aspect of the mindset is this bit:
In a statement, Mitchell[Trump Lawyer] said that Raffensperger’s office “has made many statements over the past two months that are simply not correct and everyone involved with the efforts on behalf of the President’s election challenge has said the same thing: show us your records on which you rely to make these statements that our numbers are wrong".
There's been any amount of public information, and checks and rechecks, but it is never enough.
Another example of how giving people information doesn't change anything if their mind is closed. They just demand information proving what they want, and if it does not exist it is claimed it is being hidden.
I'm surprised one of your cardinal rules is to regard people you disagree with politically as beneath contempt, I always thought you were one of the fairer ones on here.
The word 'not' is missing from the sentence.
Proof reading is definitely not one of my cardinal rules.
Jesus f*cking Christ. I hate Trump so much because he makes me break one of my cardinal rules, which is to regard people I disagree with politically as being worthy of nothing but contempt for their views and morals, which affects how objectively I can judge things. Some of those quotes, if accurate, despite everything in the last 4 years, remain gobsmacking.
A very telling aspect of the mindset is this bit:
In a statement, Mitchell[Trump Lawyer] said that Raffensperger’s office “has made many statements over the past two months that are simply not correct and everyone involved with the efforts on behalf of the President’s election challenge has said the same thing: show us your records on which you rely to make these statements that our numbers are wrong".
There's been any amount of public information, and checks and rechecks, but it is never enough.
Another example of how giving people information doesn't change anything if their mind is closed. They just demand information proving what they want, and if it does not exist it is claimed it is being hidden.
I'm surprised one of your cardinal rules is to regard people you disagree with politically as beneath contempt, I always thought you were one of the fairer ones on here.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Jesus f*cking Christ. I hate Trump so much because he makes me break one of my cardinal rules, which is to regard people I disagree with politically as being worthy of nothing but contempt for their views and morals, which affects how objectively I can judge things. Some of those quotes, if accurate, despite everything in the last 4 years, remain gobsmacking.
A very telling aspect of the mindset is this bit:
In a statement, Mitchell[Trump Lawyer] said that Raffensperger’s office “has made many statements over the past two months that are simply not correct and everyone involved with the efforts on behalf of the President’s election challenge has said the same thing: show us your records on which you rely to make these statements that our numbers are wrong".
There's been any amount of public information, and checks and rechecks, but it is never enough.
Another example of how giving people information doesn't change anything if their mind is closed. They just demand information proving what they want, and if it does not exist it is claimed it is being hidden.
I'm surprised one of your cardinal rules is to regard people you disagree with politically as beneath contempt, I always thought you were one of the fairer ones on here.
I think he mistyped.
One of my cardinal rules is ever to mistype anything.
Jesus f*cking Christ. I hate Trump so much because he makes me break one of my cardinal rules, which is to regard people I disagree with politically as being worthy of nothing but contempt for their views and morals, which affects how objectively I can judge things. Some of those quotes, if accurate, despite everything in the last 4 years, remain gobsmacking.
A very telling aspect of the mindset is this bit:
In a statement, Mitchell[Trump Lawyer] said that Raffensperger’s office “has made many statements over the past two months that are simply not correct and everyone involved with the efforts on behalf of the President’s election challenge has said the same thing: show us your records on which you rely to make these statements that our numbers are wrong".
There's been any amount of public information, and checks and rechecks, but it is never enough.
Another example of how giving people information doesn't change anything if their mind is closed. They just demand information proving what they want, and if it does not exist it is claimed it is being hidden.
I'm surprised one of your cardinal rules is to regard people you disagree with politically as beneath contempt, I always thought you were one of the fairer ones on here.
The word 'not' is missing from the sentence.
Proof reading is definitely not one of my cardinal rules.
Ah, very glad to hear that and I'm guilty of the same sin. I was (genuinely) concerned your view on these things had shifted. It's why you are always worth while reading.
If he wants to close schools for the longer term realistically he has to make the call by Wednesday.
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
He really isn’t. Teachers aren’t going to riot.
I was thinking parents would riot if they were forced to find childcare and sort out remote learning at less than 72 hours notice.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
Exactly the way I feel now as my boy’s school was closed weeks ago with zero notice. The entire thing is utterly shambolic. However, I feel schools must try to stay open at least for deprived children, who are likely to receive zero tuition at home.
When I consider lockdown decisions, I try to think not of myself as an antiquarian bookseller with a garden, by the sea, in lovely Dorset, but as a young, employed-on-minimum-wage single parent on the 13th floor of a tower block in Coventry. It must be simply hellish for some, and I have huge sympathy for anyone having to make that decision, let alone facing the consequences.
Pity you don't do that when you vote in general elections.
Should I be surprised that a Labour booster posts a snide comment about free enterprise?
I firmly believe that a market economy helps everyone more. And that a Labour government hinders that benefit, for all.
It's not snide. It's a calm and considered calling out of utter "pass the sick bucket" virtue signalling.
There is no way - no way on god's green earth - that when you vote Tory in a general election you think "not of myself as an antiquarian bookseller with a garden, by the sea, in lovely Dorset, but a young, employed-on-minimum-wage single parent on the 13th floor of a tower block in Coventry."
C'mon. Please.
1) I have just as much say as the mythical Coventry single parent in a general election, as should be the case. 2) Given WC voters are more inclined to vote Tory atm, you might want to recalibrate your anachronistic Marxist analysis of British society.
(1) Of course. (2) So I gather, and it's disappointing.
But you're crediting me with too much. I wasn't doing a Marxist analysis of British society. I was just moved to probe you on your lyricism. It doesn't ring true to me. If you continue to insist that you ARE driven primarily by the interests of the poor and downtrodden when you vote Tory, well ok, you are you and I'm not a mind reader. But it's a tough one to swallow.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
I expect sadly that the big winners after this will be private schools and the independent sector as parents sacrifice in an attempt to catch up lost learning
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Now THIS is more authentic from a Tory. No problem here.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
There are a whole series of initiatives and very large sums of money to do just that. Extra sessions, resources, technology.
However, almost all of that has had to be put on hold due to surging numbers of cases.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
I expect sadly that the big winners after this will be private schools and the independent sector as parents sacrifice in an attempt to catch up lost learning
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
"Insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose."
In fairness he's right both historically and in the modern sense.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
Your second sentence completely invalidates the first sentence. Bolting on Scots MPs as you put it means it is no longer an English Parliament by definition, so how can those completely contradictory sentences make sense?
That's the Blairite + Cameronite combined devolution settlement for you.
So he's not right historically then?
He was right historically in the sense that they simply added a few MPs from Scotland to the Engliosh Pmt whgich otherwise carried on as before (for instance, making no attempt to allow for any representation of the C of S in the HoL for instance).
Of course things evolved in between times, and the current situation is, erm, anomalous.
At this point it is semantics. Legally, the last English parliament sat in 1707.
On a point of order, the last English Parliament was summoned in 1529.
When it was summoned again in 1536, two other countries sent representatives.
Wales was one.
Does anyone know what the other country was?
France?
Gold star to the poster from the Sandpit. Calais and Tournai both sent representatives.
Lucky guess!
(I need the gold star though, currently sitting in an A&E waiting room as the wife, with a fever, takes a COVID test )
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
"Insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose."
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
I expect sadly that the big winners after this will be private schools and the independent sector as parents sacrifice in an attempt to catch up lost learning
Those that survive a second lockdown.
I also expect an extraordinary demand for additional education at home after school and many teachers will no doubt be needed to satisfy that need
I hope Raffensperger sticks around. He may well be a politician whose views on many things I would disagree with intensely for all I know, but at the very least he has been unwilling to equivocate in order to lend weight to Trump's delusions, and so ruin his personal integrity, when so many others have been more cowardly.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Now THIS is more authentic from a Tory. No problem here.
Wasn't it the fabians that were in favour of sterilisation as a policy? May be wrong but I don't believe they were tories
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
I hope you are jesting....
I'm a fiscal conservative, we need to reduce government spending, so let us start with that.
I mean I don't ask the working class to help pay for my new car.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Would it be excessively woke of me to protest that you really can't say that sort of thing?
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
There are a whole series of initiatives and very large sums of money to do just that. Extra sessions, resources, technology.
However, almost all of that has had to be put on hold due to surging numbers of cases.
Yes, and I see it in our school. However, it's clear from the conversations that there will be a permanent impact. The ones worst affected are likely to be those where English is not a first language - part because of the lack of teaching and part because they are spending far more time in their households where English might be spoken less.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
Indeed. My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier. 25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0) 35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0. 45 million done - end of restrictions.
Could be, yes. I think it depends more on hospital capacity (and specifically ICU capacity) than number jabbed. If either the lockdowns (if they ever actually become lockdowns) or the vaccinations release pressure on hospitals, unlocking a step becomes safer. Mind you, riding the wave of hospitals nearly-but-not-quite overwhelmed sounds pretty awful for the hospital staff.
--AS
I am, to be fair, running on the assumption that vaccination significantly decreases (at least) transmission, and thus the level of restrictions against any given required decrease in R will be changing.
I am interested to know whether and by how much hospital capacity has increased since March.
If not much this is as egregious a failing as anything else.
I don’t believe we’ve had sufficient time to train up many extra doctors or nurses, and that’s the key constraint.
Where we’re supposed to have 1:1 nurse to ICU patients, we’ve gone to 1:3 and even 1:4 in numerous hospitals.
They’ve rolled in more beds and machines to an unprecedented amount for ICUs in London, trying to keep “capacity” above “in use.” Including putting ICU beds in operating theatres and even gift shops in at least one case.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
I watched The Muppet Christmas Carol.
That's what I mean when I say A Christmas Carol, though I am aware other versions exist. Apparently.
If he wants to close schools for the longer term realistically he has to make the call by Wednesday.
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
He really isn’t. Teachers aren’t going to riot.
I was thinking parents would riot if they were forced to find childcare and sort out remote learning at less than 72 hours notice.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
Exactly the way I feel now as my boy’s school was closed weeks ago with zero notice. The entire thing is utterly shambolic. However, I feel schools must try to stay open at least for deprived children, who are likely to receive zero tuition at home.
When I consider lockdown decisions, I try to think not of myself as an antiquarian bookseller with a garden, by the sea, in lovely Dorset, but as a young, employed-on-minimum-wage single parent on the 13th floor of a tower block in Coventry. It must be simply hellish for some, and I have huge sympathy for anyone having to make that decision, let alone facing the consequences.
Pity you don't do that when you vote in general elections.
Should I be surprised that a Labour booster posts a snide comment?
I firmly believe that a market economy helps everyone more. And that a Labour government hinders that benefit, for all.
You deserve nothing more, Tory scum.
So single mothers on minimum wage in Coventry tower blocks drive your Tory vote too, Rob, do they? Well well. You live and learn.
But look, seriously, there was absolutely no inference of that wild and unpleasant "Tory Scum" abuse there from me. I simply sniff some falsity, that's all. Virtue signalling is not exclusive to the Left, you know. And neither is it a hanging offence.
So it's not legitimate to think how the various restrictions would impact others in society, and I should only think about how things affect me personally?
Give kinabalu a break - he's trying to quit smoking and it's making him cranky
Thank you for remembering.
Yes, and it means I better go NOW otherwise I'll be reaching for a Marlboro and it will be @Mortimer to blame.
I can only hope my new Murakami novel and glass of red will save me. Think they will.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
This is a weak defence though. The only significant group whose hearts - as opposed to heads - are PRO shutting down normal life are the Left and even then it's strictly the caricature version of the Left rather than the real one.
I think it’s a spectrum rather than a single position though, and Boris is more towards “liberty” while Starmer is closer to “security”
Genuine question - why can't we use some of the unused spaces that lockdown has produced. For example, we have a large banqueting hall just down the road from me - enough room for at least 2 spaced classes, one at each end of the hall. On a smaller note, the pub over the road has a function room that can take ca. 20 people spaced out - enough for a 6th form class - and already has the AV in place.
Nightingale Schools? I suggested that the first time round.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
I watched The Muppet Christmas Carol.
Best Christmas movie ever.
The free version from Amazon audiobooks narrated by Hugh Grant was very good too. I listened while cooking the turkey, to get in the mood.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
It certainly is not a distraction, indeed it is the main determinant of risk from Covid. I don’t have the figures to hand but tens of millions of UK people have no underlying health conditions. It’s not some sort of niche cohort.
I'm afraid this is wishful thinking. I recall that you were against lockdowns in the first place, so I'm not massively surprised that you want them lifted early. We'll have to agree to disagree on the arithmetic of when enough people have been vaccinated to lift the pressure on hospitalization and ICU capacity.
--AS
It certainly is not wishful thinking but scientific fact: around 15 million people in England have a preexisting condition, 40 million are without such conditions. Of course most - but not all - with such conditions are in the older age groups.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
We’re playing Succession
Basically Rummy, but with the kings and queens of England (and the U.K.)
I still get confused with all the kings in the House of Cerdic
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
I hope you are jesting....
As a working class northern lad TSE is only here because his great idea was not implemented 60 years ago.
Genuine question - why can't we use some of the unused spaces that lockdown has produced. For example, we have a large banqueting hall just down the road from me - enough room for at least 2 spaced classes, one at each end of the hall. On a smaller note, the pub over the road has a function room that can take ca. 20 people spaced out - enough for a 6th form class - and already has the AV in place.
Nightingale Schools? I suggested that the first time round.
They probably should have been set up to start in June. But if (If!) the vaccine is going to allow us to relax restrictions from April onwards it probably wouldn’t be worth it. Staffing them wouldn’t be easy and nor would furnishing them.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
There are only 7,500 deaths (on average) per day in the USA.
So... either the UK has five times the population of the USA. Or, deaths are not 40,000 per day.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
"Dharma says the song is about eternal love, rather than suicide.[6] He used Romeo and Juliet to describe a couple who wanted to be together in the afterlife.[7] He guessed that "40,000 men and women" died each day, and the figure was used several times in the lyrics; this rate was 100,000 off the mark.[8]"
It's an American song and a stab at a worldwide stat.
Aaargh - I've got that guitar riff in my head now.
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
We've started playing Rummy every night with the kids.
They're insufferable if they win, and unbearable if they lose.
I think I like it more when they just returned to their rooms to watch YouTube.
We’re playing Succession
Basically Rummy, but with the kings and queens of England (and the U.K.)
I still get confused with all the kings in the House of Cerdic
Puts a new twist on the term 'family game', eh Charles.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Does it have to be one or the other?
Is it too much to expect a government in this situation simply to be led by the science and not by its instincts?
The “science” only provides data.
There are trade offs to be made between economic impact and public health considerations.
And then there are philosophical considerations: what, as a democratic society, are we willing to allow our government to do
If he wants to close schools for the longer term realistically he has to make the call by Wednesday.
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
He really isn’t. Teachers aren’t going to riot.
I was thinking parents would riot if they were forced to find childcare and sort out remote learning at less than 72 hours notice.
You’re a parent and you’ve made your - understandable - position on school closures very clear. How would you feel if he turned round and suddenly said that it was happening despite all his previous denials with immediate effect?
Exactly the way I feel now as my boy’s school was closed weeks ago with zero notice. The entire thing is utterly shambolic. However, I feel schools must try to stay open at least for deprived children, who are likely to receive zero tuition at home.
When I consider lockdown decisions, I try to think not of myself as an antiquarian bookseller with a garden, by the sea, in lovely Dorset, but as a young, employed-on-minimum-wage single parent on the 13th floor of a tower block in Coventry. It must be simply hellish for some, and I have huge sympathy for anyone having to make that decision, let alone facing the consequences.
Pity you don't do that when you vote in general elections.
Should I be surprised that a Labour booster posts a snide comment?
I firmly believe that a market economy helps everyone more. And that a Labour government hinders that benefit, for all.
You deserve nothing more, Tory scum.
So single mothers on minimum wage in Coventry tower blocks drive your Tory vote too, Rob, do they? Well well. You live and learn.
But look, seriously, there was absolutely no inference of that wild and unpleasant "Tory Scum" abuse there from me. I simply sniff some falsity, that's all. Virtue signalling is not exclusive to the Left, you know. And neither is it a hanging offence.
So it's not legitimate to think how the various restrictions would impact others in society, and I should only think about how things affect me personally?
Give kinabalu a break - he's trying to quit smoking and it's making him cranky
Thank you for remembering.
Yes, and it means I better go NOW otherwise I'll be reaching for a Marlboro and it will be @Mortimer to blame.
I can only hope my new Murakami novel and glass of red will save me. Think they will.
Just had a Short Churchill. How on earth does anyone smoke a Full Churchill?!
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Still that false dilemma. If the health service is fucked, the economy is fucked. All that the lockdown delays have ever done is slightly delay the economic damage while making both the health and economic damage worse.
Yes, the first part of what you say is true. The balance the Govt have sought to strike throughout seems to be ensuring neither happens. The right path IMO.
It's a false economy. Every week with R running out of control requires several weeks of harder measures to bring cases back down to a level that the health system can cope with on an ongoing basis.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
I don't know anyone who advocates permanent lockdown. If you lockdown for long enough to remove the virus from circulation, and keep it out with quarantine and travel restrictions, you can open up completely.
Haven't we seen that as soon as you open up there is a resurgence?
No idea if you are a member of said brigade but would you have opened up society over the summer?
In the late spring, when the numbers were coming down rapidly, and the evidence had accumulated that the risk factor was aerosol generation indoors, I was an advocate of opening up outdoor activity as much as possible - I felt we had to make the most of the weather while we could.
So I thought the criticism of people enjoying the good weather at the beaches was ridiculous for example. I would probably have kept indoor venues closed longer, but opened up outdoor spaces earlier.
I resisted the second lockdown as long as possible - arguing that the focus should have been on improving test, trace and isolate than micromanaging restrictions. The prospect of using stop-start lockdown fills me with dread. One proper lockdown to get rid of it entirely is okay, but wasting your lockdown by ending it early (if test, trace & isolate doesn't work) seems like the worst possible option. Which is the one we've chosen.
I can't believe that we've only just started testing cross-border lorry drivers (and then only so the French will let them in - not helping to keep the virus out at all).
We've done absolutely zero to take advantage of the natural advantage provided by being an island.
Interesting what is the current state in NZ? Are they letting people in and out?
The last I heard it was still NZ citizens only, compulsory quarantine. Haven't seen the stories about numbers being as limited as I have for Australia.
Just confirmed that my sons school goes back tomorrow (he is IT director) and my grandchildren's primary on Wednesday and this under Labour Wales when Starmer is calling for lockdown
Madness. Case levels in Wales are little more than stable at the moment, so that will re-light the fire.
Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?
Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns...
Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
The chances are 100%. You can bet your house and your grandmother on it...
While Tories, who spent months defending his indefensible actions, go in precisely the opposite direction.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
Well, someone didn't watch A Christmas Carol this year I see.
I watched The Muppet Christmas Carol.
I’m watching Muppets carol at Christmas.
Williamson, Gibb and Spielman.
Just had a thought - "Muppet Question Time"! With real (Jim Henson) muppets enacting dialogue taken straight out of Hansard.
Could do this with today's House of Comnmons OR with past parliaments, for example the Muppets reinact the Norway Debate 1940. Perhaps with Lady Astor played by Miss Piggy? Not sure who'd portray Neville, Winston, etc, etc; either Statler or Waldorf would be perfect as Lloyd George.
Kermit would be a natural as the young MP, croaking at the cusp of destiny, torn between loyalty to his party (National Amphibians, part of the National coalition) and prime minister, and his duty to his comrades, King and country.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
Indeed. My mental rule of thumb is:
15 million done - end of Tier 4 and above; schools go back; all locations down one Tier. 25 million done - end of Tier 3 and above; invention of “Tier 0” with lesser restrictions but some remaining; everyone down one more Tier (so Tier 4 today are now Tier 2; Tier 3 are Tier 1; some are even Tier 0) 35 million done - end of Tier 2 and above, everyone either Tier 1 or Tier 0. 45 million done - end of restrictions.
Could be, yes. I think it depends more on hospital capacity (and specifically ICU capacity) than number jabbed. If either the lockdowns (if they ever actually become lockdowns) or the vaccinations release pressure on hospitals, unlocking a step becomes safer. Mind you, riding the wave of hospitals nearly-but-not-quite overwhelmed sounds pretty awful for the hospital staff.
--AS
I am, to be fair, running on the assumption that vaccination significantly decreases (at least) transmission, and thus the level of restrictions against any given required decrease in R will be changing.
I am interested to know whether and by how much hospital capacity has increased since March.
If not much this is as egregious a failing as anything else.
Given the attrition on staff I wouldn't be surprised if capacity was lower now. No service can maintain a level of activity above normal indefinitely.
You can't manufacture nurses in the same way as ventilators.
Just had a thought - "Muppet Question Time"! With real (Jim Henson) muppets enacting dialogue taken straight out of Hansard.
Could do this with today's House of Comnmons OR with past parliaments, for example the Muppets reinact the Norway Debate 1940. Perhaps with Lady Astor played by Miss Piggy? Not sure who'd portray Neville, Winston, etc, etc; either Statler or Waldorf would be perfect as Lloyd George.
Kermit would be a natural as the young MP, croaking at the cusp of destiny, torn between loyalty to his party (National Amphibians, part of the National coalition) and prime minister, and his duty to his comrades, King and country.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
"Dharma says the song is about eternal love, rather than suicide.[6] He used Romeo and Juliet to describe a couple who wanted to be together in the afterlife.[7] He guessed that "40,000 men and women" died each day, and the figure was used several times in the lyrics; this rate was 100,000 off the mark.[8]"
It's an American song and a stab at a worldwide stat.
Aaargh - I've got that guitar riff in my head now.
(Though tbf there are far worse earworms.)
Do you need more cowbell?
You win today’s most obscure pop culture reference award!
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
It's unlikely to be proven.
We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
Readily believing the word of someone who you refused to believe at all when you wanted them hung, drawn and quartered, as evidence to topple someone else you dislike? Not for me, Clive
Is it impossible to take an objective view of Cummings's behaviour, leaving aside any political issues? Do you personally find that impossible, or do you just think everybody else does?
I'd have thought the people angriest with Cummings ought to be Johnson's supporters, for the entirely gratuitous damage and humiliation inflicted on their man.
Of course it is, I don’t care much either way about what he said re Durham it what he’s saying now, so I wouldn’t bother supposing what I find impossible. But I’d say for people who wouldn’t believe a word he said before to now swallow what he says as gospel seems like ridiculous confirmation bias
Comments
The more of this goes on, the better imo.
So... either the UK has five times the population of the USA.
Or, deaths are not 40,000 per day.
What is The Cult?
(Though tbf there are far worse earworms.)
(I need the gold star though, currently sitting in an A&E waiting room as the wife, with a fever, takes a COVID test
If not much this is as egregious a failing as anything else.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_War
If fifty gold stars would help...
https://twitter.com/theAliceRoberts/status/1345796711634104323
Because otherwise, you get complete total chaos.
Which is even worse.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ij3g8kscdeA
https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1345778443758219266
Proof reading is definitely not one of my cardinal rules.
But you're crediting me with too much. I wasn't doing a Marxist analysis of British society. I was just moved to probe you on your lyricism. It doesn't ring true to me. If you continue to insist that you ARE driven primarily by the interests of the poor and downtrodden when you vote Tory, well ok, you are you and I'm not a mind reader. But it's a tough one to swallow.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
However, almost all of that has had to be put on hold due to surging numbers of cases.
THE perfect motto for PBers!
Cue a dozen journalists inquiring as to the exact scope of Georgia's Open Record laws.
(so says google anyway)
I mean I don't ask the working class to help pay for my new car.
Where we’re supposed to have 1:1 nurse to ICU patients, we’ve gone to 1:3 and even 1:4 in numerous hospitals.
They’ve rolled in more beds and machines to an unprecedented amount for ICUs in London, trying to keep “capacity” above “in use.” Including putting ICU beds in operating theatres and even gift shops in at least one case.
https://twitter.com/Davewwest/status/1344001092900823040
All elective surgery has been cancelled, which frees up about 20% of normal use of ICU beds.
It’s still getting worse. With the infection rates from the past several days, we can expect it to get considerably worse before it gets better.
Yes, and it means I better go NOW otherwise I'll be reaching for a Marlboro and it will be @Mortimer to blame.
I can only hope my new Murakami novel and glass of red will save me. Think they will.
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1345800140293099520
The free version from Amazon audiobooks narrated by Hugh Grant was very good too. I listened while cooking the turkey, to get in the mood.
Williamson, Gibb and Spielman.
Not that we know Williamson is at risk. Boris may want to promote him.
i) Schools are everywhere.
ii) This isn't Scargill vs Thatcher, it's - well - teachers vs Gavin Williamson.
Basically Rummy, but with the kings and queens of England (and the U.K.)
I still get confused with all the kings in the House of Cerdic
I seem to get double quotes evey time.
(Might be that last bottle of red... roll on dry January. Oh...)
There are trade offs to be made between economic impact and public health considerations.
And then there are philosophical considerations: what, as a democratic society, are we willing to allow our government to do
It’s judgement
A government that believes in Gavin Williamson is clearly extraordinarily credulous.
As mine is.
How many ways can people come up with to say ‘go fuck yourselves, losers, this is your fault?’
Could do this with today's House of Comnmons OR with past parliaments, for example the Muppets reinact the Norway Debate 1940. Perhaps with Lady Astor played by Miss Piggy? Not sure who'd portray Neville, Winston, etc, etc; either Statler or Waldorf would be perfect as Lloyd George.
Kermit would be a natural as the young MP, croaking at the cusp of destiny, torn between loyalty to his party (National Amphibians, part of the National coalition) and prime minister, and his duty to his comrades, King and country.
You can't manufacture nurses in the same way as ventilators.