That being said, the path of accountability and scrutiny is going to be a rocky one. Simply saying "we've done better than country x or y" isn't what it's about - we aren't responsible for whatever measures France, Italy or Bolivia or wherever decided to impose. Decisions on closing or not closing the borders and actions taken with regard to care homes are two areas where I think the Government has explanations to provide, evidence to produce and questions to answer - that's wholly reasonable.
As the header suggests, it sounds as though similar questions will need to be asked about decisions made in July, August and September.
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I don't think there's much of a risk to Johnson from what Cummings may, or may not, say. The bigger risk is if it becomes demonstrable that Johnson's repeated claims that "we are following the science" turn out to be proven untrue. It's already pretty clear from the SAGE minutes that he hasn't been following the science promptly, but only after a delay. If, for example, Whitty or Vallance turned on the PM and explicitly say that he has been ignoring their timely advice based on the science then he could be in trouble.
Friday June 18th 2021 will be the fourth day of the Royal Ascot meeting, a much more significant event than some football match between a couple of teams from an island to the north-west of Europe.
I mean - England vs Scotland - who cares?
Put that against the Coronation Stakes and there's only one winner.
No Coronation Street that night, ITV are showing England v. Scotland.
Yes but before ITV waste people's evenings with a soccer match, there'll be three and a half hours of quality horse racing shown in the afternoon.
I imagine millions will want to skip work to catch the racing and make up the time in the evening - alternatively, they can forego the football and get more excitement watching the grass grow on a fine midsummer evening - probably a good evening to be outside rather than stuck indoors.
Can anyone translate this for me? https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1345759964590178309 I think he means he doesn’t *want* schools to close but as they’re going to have to it would be better to plan for it properly than do it ad hoc.
Lockdown 3: Lockdown with a Vengeance. The political Willis to remove the virus.
As was noted a month or so ago, we had best not get to Lockdown 4, as it will be ideal for the anti-vaxxer libertarians - Lockdown 4: Live free or Lockdown
Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?
Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns...
Well I need not contort at all. I pressed the following view of Cummings when he was there and on his exit:
He was the most enormous hypocrite for flouting the lockdown that he himself championed. This damaged public trust in the government's pandemic response and cost lives. The ostensibly remarkable fact that Johnson neither delivered a rebuke nor demanded an apology demonstrated his craven reliance on his top spad to supply the drive and grip on events that he himself lacked. That this was reliance rather than loyalty was demonstrated subsequently when he was faced with a choice between backing Cummings and appeasing his girlfriend and chose the latter - in the process knowingly sacrificing drive and grip on events (albeit of the vicarious kind) for domestic peace & quiet in the number 10 flat.
Could it be any more damning? Not really. But mainly on Johnson. So Cummings is someone I want to hear from and, for me, his testimony on this will not be tainted.
Can anyone translate this for me? https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1345759964590178309 I think he means he doesn’t *want* schools to close but as they’re going to have to it would be better to plan for it properly than do it ad hoc.
But it’s to put it mildly unclear.
He means that he wants to be able to criticise whatever decision is made. He's a politician after all.
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I'm perfectly happy to see the scope of any enquiry (or is it inquiry - if only we had someone from Wales who was a teacher on this site) extended to all the relevant devolved Governments and to encompass advice given to and decisions taken by relevant local authorities whether Counties, Districts, Boroughs or Unitaries.
Can anyone translate this for me? https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1345759964590178309 I think he means he doesn’t *want* schools to close but as they’re going to have to it would be better to plan for it properly than do it ad hoc.
But it’s to put it mildly unclear.
He means that he wants to be able to criticise whatever decision is made. He's a politician after all.
Well, yes, I mean how could anyone forget SeanT predicting seven different results for the Sindy ref so whatever happened he could demonstrate he foresaw it?
But to do that you have to have at least a vague coherence.
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I'm perfectly happy to see the scope of any enquiry (or is it inquiry - if only we had someone from Wales who was a teacher on this site) extended to all the relevant devolved Governments and to encompass advice given to and decisions taken by relevant local authorities whether Counties, Districts, Boroughs or Unitaries.
I don't have any problem myself.
I am just pointing out that politicians from all parties may find it useful to have a nice long inquiry with a broad remit that reports back in 2030.
I don't think there's much of a risk to Johnson from what Cummings may, or may not, say. The bigger risk is if it becomes demonstrable that Johnson's repeated claims that "we are following the science" turn out to be proven untrue. It's already pretty clear from the SAGE minutes that he hasn't been following the science promptly, but only after a delay. If, for example, Whitty or Vallance turned on the PM and explicitly say that he has been ignoring their timely advice based on the science then he could be in trouble.
TBF, "following the science" is not just about following the output of the SAGE group, but of advice coming from experts on all aspects of how COVID impacts us. SAGE currently heavy on medical, microbiological and epidemiological expertise, it has two psychologists, one emergency response expert, 2 political advisers, and NO economists, mental health experts, and many other relevant fields.
@HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?
I do not care what red wall voters think on that, I would rather preserve the Union than win a general election.
The Union once lost cannot be restored, you can win another general election however
Then why do you support policies that decrease support for the union?
I don't, I voted Remain in 2016, though I respect the Leave vote and I support devomax for Holyrood
You've been told repeatedly by Scottish people themselves that denying an independence vote, if that's what the Scottish voters vote for this year, will increase support for independence.
But as usual you think you know better.
No evidence it will, the 40% hardcore who want one within 2 years would all vote Yes anyway.
If you grant an independence referendum where at best there is only a 50% chance of No winning that is far more of a threat to the Union however than respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and refusing to grant one at all until that generation has elapsed
The biggest threat to the union is taking Scotland out of the single market after campaigning in the 2014 election on a promise to stay in the single market. And Johnson has already done that.
Can anyone translate this for me? https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1345759964590178309 I think he means he doesn’t *want* schools to close but as they’re going to have to it would be better to plan for it properly than do it ad hoc.
But it’s to put it mildly unclear.
He means that he wants to be able to criticise whatever decision is made. He's a politician after all.
Yet again, Labour seem not to have realised that they are in power in Wales -- where there is a phased return back to school from tomorrow.
The policy is a bit unclear, but there is certainly no national shutdown of schools in Wales.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Ah, now I think I understand. What Starmer’s saying is that schools will close, and that will be bad, and therefore it’s important to plan to minimise the disruption and chaos.
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I'm perfectly happy to see the scope of any enquiry (or is it inquiry - if only we had someone from Wales who was a teacher on this site) extended to all the relevant devolved Governments and to encompass advice given to and decisions taken by relevant local authorities whether Counties, Districts, Boroughs or Unitaries.
I don't have any problem myself.
I am just pointing out that politicians from all parties may find it useful to have a nice long inquiry with a broad remit that reports back in 2030.
Yes, I've been among those who up to now have said that everyone I know has been following the rules. I know a lot of exceptions over Christmas of the kind she describes and even some surprise that I was really spending it on my own. Most of them seem keen to be compliant again now, but I do expect trouble in the next week's figures.
I think the danger is we focus far too much on such ‘transgressions’ and far too little on the only thing that matters: vaccine deployment.
Why does the government only have 500k AZ vaccines when it ordered 100m?
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Sir Keir is right though. Delay simply helps the virus and harms the economy in the long-run. If we're going to have to lockdown further, it's better to do it sooner rather than later, whilst we go all out on the vaccine rollout.
All true, but I don't think you can have a serious investigation into e.g., the care home policy in England, without looking at the policy in Wales and Scotland, where it seems very similar mistakes were made.
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I'm perfectly happy to see the scope of any enquiry (or is it inquiry - if only we had someone from Wales who was a teacher on this site) extended to all the relevant devolved Governments and to encompass advice given to and decisions taken by relevant local authorities whether Counties, Districts, Boroughs or Unitaries.
The important things to learn quickly, are what were good decisions with hindsight, and what were bad decisions with hindsight. We need to feed these back into the response plan for the next time we get hit.
The enquiry needs to be like a transport accident enquiry, primarily focussed on causes and outcomes, rather than trying to place blame on individuals. No-one should need to come with a lawyer, and no-one should face prosecution for anything said at the enquiry.
Can anyone translate this for me? https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1345759964590178309 I think he means he doesn’t *want* schools to close but as they’re going to have to it would be better to plan for it properly than do it ad hoc.
But it’s to put it mildly unclear.
That's it. The 1st sentence can be skipped. It's a SOTBO he felt the need to open with before delivering the message.
Often the way in discourse.
"It wasn't intentional. But I've lost the car keys, can you come and get me?"
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Actually they do.
The reason all this is particularly important is because it tells us so much of why our pandemic story has unfolded the way it has. Time and again, Boris Johnson has so deeply regretted even the prospect of having to do difficult things that he hasn’t done them, meaning he has had to do even more regrettable things later. He seems most comfortable casting himself as forever the passive victim of events as opposed to someone who should be out in front of them, shaping them as decisively as possible.
A fascinating article by the pollster James Johnson this week charted the PM’s descent in the focus groups over the course of the past year. “As yet another inevitable decision was finally made,” he reported, “people came to think more and more that the man who was meant to lead them was following them instead.”
Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?
Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns...
Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
The chances are 100%. You can bet your house and your grandmother on it...
I thought you started out as a Boris fanboi, and then bought into Dom as an integral part of the Boris package. It seems that the two have now irreconcileably diverged. Is Dom now more fab than Boris, if it comes to a choice between the two? How are you going to position yourself if a Princess Nut Nut breaks lockdown story surfaces?
The only story here is how good Cummings is at getting others (not just you) to take him at his own valuation. Advisers get to advise, is all, and preferably on things they know something about, and when they cease to be advisers they cease to advise.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Sir Keir is right though. Delay simply helps the virus and harms the economy in the long-run. If we're going to have to lockdown further, it's better to do it sooner rather than later, whilst we go all out on the vaccine rollout.
Probably. But I can't help thinking that Boris's obvious reluctance to take away individual freedom plays quite well against the lock us up mentality of SKS. Politics again of course.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
Both Newcastle City Council and Northumberland County Council seem to be leaving it up to the schools on whether they close or not, and will "support them" in their choice.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Indeed. SKS might have looked ballsy if he had said this 24 hours ago.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Indeed. SKS might have looked ballsy if he had said this 24 hours ago.
Yes and if he read PB he would have seen the vast majority across the political spectrum saying for the best part of a couple of weeks now: 1. January is going to be terrible, we need to lock down tight right now. 2. This includes schools and Universities. 3.Nothing is more important than maximising the number of vaccinations, it is the only way that we can stop this new variant. 4. If we can get enough people vaccinated in January February can be better and March better still.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
To an extent you are right, but elections are won at the margins. If 85% don't give a damn and 15% are pissed off with the dithering incompetence, it has an impact. I would be surprised if its less than 15% that are pissed off with the constant delay before taking inevitable action.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Indeed. SKS might have looked ballsy if he had said this 24 hours ago.
I think he had to wait until Boris Johnson said it was safe for schools to be open.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
I don't think there's much of a risk to Johnson from what Cummings may, or may not, say. The bigger risk is if it becomes demonstrable that Johnson's repeated claims that "we are following the science" turn out to be proven untrue. It's already pretty clear from the SAGE minutes that he hasn't been following the science promptly, but only after a delay. If, for example, Whitty or Vallance turned on the PM and explicitly say that he has been ignoring their timely advice based on the science then he could be in trouble.
TBF, "following the science" is not just about following the output of the SAGE group, but of advice coming from experts on all aspects of how COVID impacts us. SAGE currently heavy on medical, microbiological and epidemiological expertise, it has two psychologists, one emergency response expert, 2 political advisers, and NO economists, mental health experts, and many other relevant fields.
But FTS was used by the government as deflector shorthand for "doing what the experts say is necessary to control the pandemic". They set the phrase up to be interpreted that way. It was not helpful to the debate, I agree with you on that, but this is precisely why they coined it. They didn't want to help the debate. They wanted to squash it. Which, btw, despite my very low opinion of them, I can empathize with. Do you want a robust, intelligent, well informed debate raging in the country when you are up to your necks trying to deal with a black swan health emergency? Not really.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
The Tories not only said schools were safe they weaponised the issue as a stick to hit Starmer with. So its difficult for them to admit that it isn't safe now for the same reason it wasn't safe before. So they won't be doing that unless they absolutely have to.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
I think that the probability is that they can't spread it because if the virus is not getting into their cells and multiplying there how will they shed enough to infect someone?
But it is a trillion dollar question because it will determine how fast the economy can come back to anything like normal. I would suggest that a bit more urgency in determining the answer might be in order.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
A complex calculation indeed since a key input is to what extent those who are vaccinated - and those who know those who are vaccinated - change their behaviour as a consequence.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?
Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns...
Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
The chances are 100%. You can bet your house and your grandmother on it...
I thought you started out as a Boris fanboi, and then bought into Dom as an integral part of the Boris package. It seems that the two have now irreconcileably diverged. Is Dom now more fab than Boris, if it comes to a choice between the two? How are you going to position yourself if a Princess Nut Nut breaks lockdown story surfaces?
The only story here is how good Cummings is at getting others (not just you) to take him at his own valuation. Advisers get to advise, is all, and preferably on things they know something about, and when they cease to be advisers they cease to advise.
Nah, it's always been about Boris with me. Dear old Cummings was only ever useful as long as he was, well, useful.
On the last point, that's what I've always said - Boris is the PM, Dom merely gave advice (the notion that matters were in fact inverted was a favourite ScottPism that some others on here also liked to adopt).
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
The key is to vaccinate the vulnerable PDQ, then this becomes a second-order question. That, and that alone, should be the focus.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
It was specifically in the context of giving just a single jab yielding an estimated protection level of 70%. If people still have a 30% chance of catching and spreading it, it really shouldn't change their behaviour until society as a whole has built up more resistance.
I agree that becomes even more important if the vaccines protect from disease, but still allow asymptomatic spread.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
It was specifically in the context of giving just a single jab yielding an estimated protection level of 70%. If people still have a 30% chance of catching and spreading it, it really shouldn't change their behaviour until society as a whole has built up more resistance.
I agree that becomes even more important if the vaccines protect from disease, but still allow asymptomatic spread.
If we don't get asymptomatic spread from the vaccinated then even at 70% the R rate should fall quite sharply as vaccination takes hold and more vectors for spreading are closed, but I take your point.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
I used to stay at uni over the Easter break. Got a hall room rent free in exchange for cleaning the toilets. Only took a couple of hours each day then South Ken was my oyster.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
That question turns substantially on the question of whether or not those vaccinated can carry the disease or not, a question to which there is still no clear answer.
Yes, of course. Or more precisely whether those vaccinated can spread it. (It's not unlikely that the vaccine reduces viral shedding to a greater degree than it prevents infection.)
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
I think that the probability is that they can't spread it because if the virus is not getting into their cells and multiplying there how will they shed enough to infect someone?
But it is a trillion dollar question because it will determine how fast the economy can come back to anything like normal. I would suggest that a bit more urgency in determining the answer might be in order.
Bear in mind that, in a vaccinated person, the virus still gets into cells and multiplies. But then the infection is quickly killed by killer T cells, by existing antibodies, or by new antibodies created via memory B cells. This takes hours or a few days, during which time it's quite possible that the virus is still shedding from airways. The infected person might not feel much in the way of symptoms while this happens.
I agree that determining the answer is important, but it's just a really hard problem. To run a controlled experiment you'd need to vaccinate a volunteer, deliberately expose them to COVID, then put them in a room with an unvaccinated volunteer. And see how many of the latter catch it. This would be an unethical experiment at the moment. Challenge trials are indeed starting but there's a very long way to go before they produce results even about efficacy, let alone transmissibility. Their first task is simply to determine what a "dose" of COVID should be.
So we're left with the uncontrolled experiments that societies are currently running. Unfortunately they are full of confounding variables. As kinablu says, behaviour of the vaccinated. Plus behaviour changes in the population at large (lockdowns, school closures, etc), the mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated, and even a bit of herd immunity. If we're really lucky and both the vaccines almost totally prevent transmission then we may see it in the age-stratified case data pretty sharply. If only one vaccine does, or both reduce it only partially, it will be difficult to unpick this signal from all the other noise. I know some of the people analyzing the data and they are good, so if there's a clear answer I think they will find it.
The best we can do is vaccinate as many as possible as quickly as possible. And pray the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. I must say that Malmesbury's data posts fill me with disquiet on this.
Stage 1, Boris says on national TV that we will probably have to do this. Stage 2 SKS: do it now. Stage 3: Boris does it. Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead. Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Actually they do.
The reason all this is particularly important is because it tells us so much of why our pandemic story has unfolded the way it has. Time and again, Boris Johnson has so deeply regretted even the prospect of having to do difficult things that he hasn’t done them, meaning he has had to do even more regrettable things later. He seems most comfortable casting himself as forever the passive victim of events as opposed to someone who should be out in front of them, shaping them as decisively as possible.
A fascinating article by the pollster James Johnson this week charted the PM’s descent in the focus groups over the course of the past year. “As yet another inevitable decision was finally made,” he reported, “people came to think more and more that the man who was meant to lead them was following them instead.”
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
Ok well you surprise me.
When do you suppose the boarding staff get time off? Being a school houseparent is a very, very full on job.
In a completely unsurprising development, cases in Liverpool are exploding. At the start of December, average cases per day (by specimen date) were in the 60s. Dec 22-24 they were around 180. Dec 29-31 are all above 500. Criminal to leave it in tier 2 until after Christmas and to still only have it in tier 3 now.
Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?
Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns...
Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
The chances are 100%. You can bet your house and your grandmother on it...
I thought you started out as a Boris fanboi, and then bought into Dom as an integral part of the Boris package. It seems that the two have now irreconcileably diverged. Is Dom now more fab than Boris, if it comes to a choice between the two? How are you going to position yourself if a Princess Nut Nut breaks lockdown story surfaces?
The only story here is how good Cummings is at getting others (not just you) to take him at his own valuation. Advisers get to advise, is all, and preferably on things they know something about, and when they cease to be advisers they cease to advise.
Nah, it's always been about Boris with me. Dear old Cummings was only ever useful as long as he was, well, useful.
On the last point, that's what I've always said - Boris is the PM, Dom merely gave advice (the notion that matters were in fact inverted was a favourite ScottPism that some others on here also liked to adopt).
It's only been about "Boris" since he prevailed in the Tory Brexit dust-up. Before that I bet you were rooting for a May landslide in 17 and supported her Deal afterwards.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Yes. My mother desperately wants the vaccine so she can do all those things she loved as an ultra extrovert.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
On topic, there are 4 nations in the UK following somewhat different strategies.
I think Boris/Rishi would be in serious trouble if England suffered demonstrably worse in the pandemic than Scotland, or Wales or N. Ireland.
It is not obvious to me at the moment that such is the case.
All 4 countries seem to have performed much the same (within margin of error). And all 4 seem to be pretty typical of performance generally in Western Europe.
I think that's right.
I think if you look at performance by country (in W Europe, excluding Sweden), then number of infections and deaths are highly correlated with two factors:
1) Number of single person households - those with many, like Norway or Denmark, have done best and 2) Number of intergenerational households - those with many, like Italy and Spain, have done worst
I might suggest that population density be added to those.
However, I would also say first order of business is finishing vaccinations, and moving on to following through for less wealthy countries.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
Ok well you surprise me.
When do you suppose the boarding staff get time off? Being a school houseparent is a very, very full on job.
I don't imagine it's necessary for everyone to be off at once. I'd imagine there's some variation by school.
I'm not doubting you, just your answer wasn't as I thought it would be. Thus I was surprised.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
"Guardians"??? Don't tell TSE that! He'll happily leave the kids with any passing tree and raccoon combo....
On topic, there are 4 nations in the UK following somewhat different strategies.
I think Boris/Rishi would be in serious trouble if England suffered demonstrably worse in the pandemic than Scotland, or Wales or N. Ireland.
It is not obvious to me at the moment that such is the case.
All 4 countries seem to have performed much the same (within margin of error). And all 4 seem to be pretty typical of performance generally in Western Europe.
I think that's right.
I think if you look at performance by country (in W Europe, excluding Sweden), then number of infections and deaths are highly correlated with two factors:
1) Number of single person households - those with many, like Norway or Denmark, have done best and 2) Number of intergenerational households - those with many, like Italy and Spain, have done worst
I might suggest that population density be added to those.
However, I would also say first order of business is finishing vaccinations, and moving on to following through for less wealthy countries.
(Afternoon all)
And proportion of population in care homes. Which is key to why Belgium and Netherlands are so bad.
Serious question: have we had a header on how to do an enquiry?
Reflecting on the happenings wrt to the Grenfell enquiry, I am wondering whether it is possible, or if "Judge-led enquiry" is about to become a devalued phrase.
Thanks for the article @TSE, a very good piece. If this is true, then I think BoJo probably is gone, and it would feed into the narrative that he may go in 1H of this year. I'd agree with you also that - and a big if - if the story is true, then Rishi's chances as next PM are probably out as well, although I have never been as convinced as many on this site that he is the natural successor, although it was a great tip by @Philip_Thompson to back him as next PM at 250/1.
Question then becomes who would become leader. I think the Red Wall here is crucial. It pays to remember the constituency who gets to decide who goes through to the final round and, unlike in 2019, many of those initial "voters" (i.e. Tory MPs) will be Red Wall MPs who will be desperate for someone who can help them hang onto their seats. That's why I don't think someone like Hunt has a chance because he would go down like a bucket of sick in many RW places. Out of the Cabinet, the only ones I can see vaguely been seen to be appealing to those voters are Truss and Patel. Forget Gove.
I therefore think you are looking for someone out of the Cabinet. I'm also tempted to dust off my Esther McVey piece for why she could be leader (don't laugh...) not because I think she will be, especially after her previous attempt, but because someone with her type of background and views - northern, working class(-ish) and favouring Blue Collar Conservatism - will likely appeal to a large chunk of the MPs that make up the initial voting constituency that decides. So look out for any credible candidates from there.
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
"Guardians"??? Don't tell TSE that! He'll happily leave the kids with any passing tree and raccoon combo....
Should that happen though the pineapple vaults of the world will be most surely under threat. Imagine those small enterprising TSElets stunning their guards and making haste for the forbidden fruit!
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
"Guardians"??? Don't tell TSE that! He'll happily leave the kids with any passing tree and raccoon combo....
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
It's unlikely to be proven.
We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
Readily believing the word of someone who you refused to believe at all when you wanted them hung, drawn and quartered, as evidence to topple someone else you dislike? Not for me, Clive
Lockdown 3: Lockdown with a Vengeance. The political Willis to remove the virus.
As was noted a month or so ago, we had best not get to Lockdown 4, as it will be ideal for the anti-vaxxer libertarians - Lockdown 4: Live free or Lockdown
The great irony, of course, is the only places where people are able to live free and without lockdowns - i.e. China, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kog - are the places that started with completely draconian lockdowns (and combined them with quarantines for incoming travellers).
I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
Are you sure that it was a present for her? My daughter got “Cathedral” which is a great board strategy game from Germany... purely coincidental I used to play it with my Dad when I was a kid
Eton is closed. Most private Schools are going to remain closed. So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Our private school is most definitely open and everyone has their own computer and the school uses both distance learning and actual attendance. Indeed it has been open throughout and takes children from key workers and my son as IT director has overseen the whole computer and learning process
I presume that most of the boarding schools never close, in that there are pupils staying all year round.
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
Not during the Christmas and Easter holidays, as the boarding staff are absent. Children normally then go either back to their parents or to ‘guardians’ in the country who are paid to look after them.
"Guardians"??? Don't tell TSE that! He'll happily leave the kids with any passing tree and raccoon combo....
Should that happen though the pineapple vaults of the world will be most surely under threat. Imagine those small enterprising TSElets stunning their guards and making haste for the forbidden fruit!
They regularly eat pineapple, my kids know the rules.
1) Liverpool FC are the best, support any other team and you're going in a home
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
A handy set of figures is this -
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population | | 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 | | 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 | | 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 | | 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 | | 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 | | 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 | | Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
Disagree on both points.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
1. From what I've seen, the chances of hospitalization amongst under 60s is not that small. I don't have the data to hand but the median age of those in intensive care is only about 60, maybe 62ish. The "underlying health conditions" clause is a distraction because such a large proportion of people, even under 60, have such a condition.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
Re (1) my understanding is that over 20 million people here have UHCs in the sense it is used in the reporting. Perhaps better if the phrase had never appeared and we had just stuck to age bands as regards the macro risk - especially since UHCs are correlated to age anyway.
Serious question: have we had a header on how to do an enquiry?
Reflecting on the happenings wrt to the Grenfell enquiry, I am wondering whether it is possible, or if "Judge-led enquiry" is about to become a devalued phrase.
It depends what you want from it.
If you want a political and adversarial enquiry, seeking to blame people for decisions and for witnesses to grandstand for the media, then a “Judge-led enquiry” is they way to go.
Alternatively, if you want a data-led enquiry looking at the methodology by which decisions were taken and the impact of decisions taken on outcomes, without seeking to blame individuals, and provide recommendations to avoid the failures in the future, then look instead to the methodologies used by the AAIB and RAIB.
I do wish threads could be proofread and edited down before publication. This really could have been written in 1/4 of the words and without the errors. (Mike is the only regular who writes brilliantly succinct threads.) There was a good piece lurking in here. Please don't take umbrage. If it's any consolation it's nowhere near as blunt as my own agent who regularly reduces bestselling authors to tears. It's about standards, that's all. And you don't raise them by being overly polite to one another. As Michael Gove would testify! He's often rude in Cabinet. And often right.
As some of you may recall, I cashed out on "the Rishi Sunak" [sic.] in December. It's not that he isn't still favourite. It's that there are too many curve-balls around at the moment. I'm not sure Gove will be the answer for the Conservative Party. I rather doubt it. The union as we knew it is probably already doomed anyway: Northern Ireland will have to unite with the south after Johnson's Brexit. It's only a question of when. Will a United Kingdom survive with the Scots rightly agitating to leave?
Comments
Just to take Wales (because I know it best), I am sure Welsh Labour/LibDems will not relish a detailed investigation into their care home policy.
Or, as regards international airports, I'd be very surprised if the Welsh Gov't did not have the power to shut down Cardiff Airport or insist on quarantining of arrivals .... because they actually own the damn thing, they own Cardiff Airport. Why did they not shut it?
I imagine millions will want to skip work to catch the racing and make up the time in the evening - alternatively, they can forego the football and get more excitement watching the grass grow on a fine midsummer evening - probably a good evening to be outside rather than stuck indoors.
I think he means he doesn’t *want* schools to close but as they’re going to have to it would be better to plan for it properly than do it ad hoc.
But it’s to put it mildly unclear.
He was the most enormous hypocrite for flouting the lockdown that he himself championed. This damaged public trust in the government's pandemic response and cost lives. The ostensibly remarkable fact that Johnson neither delivered a rebuke nor demanded an apology demonstrated his craven reliance on his top spad to supply the drive and grip on events that he himself lacked. That this was reliance rather than loyalty was demonstrated subsequently when he was faced with a choice between backing Cummings and appeasing his girlfriend and chose the latter - in the process knowingly sacrificing drive and grip on events (albeit of the vicarious kind) for domestic peace & quiet in the number 10 flat.
Could it be any more damning? Not really. But mainly on Johnson. So Cummings is someone I want to hear from and, for me, his testimony on this will not be tainted.
But to do that you have to have at least a vague coherence.
I am just pointing out that politicians from all parties may find it useful to have a nice long inquiry with a broad remit that reports back in 2030.
The policy is a bit unclear, but there is certainly no national shutdown of schools in Wales.
Do we shut down the Premier League (which nobody would miss) or a vitally important public asset such as Fakenham Racecourse?
Do we now tell food outlets providing takeaway and delivery services they have to close completely?
Stage 2 SKS: do it now.
Stage 3: Boris does it.
Stage 4 SKS says you are just following my lead.
Stage 5 Pretty much the entire country doesn't give a damn.
Which makes sense.
But it’s very poorly worded.
Why does the government only have 500k AZ vaccines when it ordered 100m?
The enquiry needs to be like a transport accident enquiry, primarily focussed on causes and outcomes, rather than trying to place blame on individuals. No-one should need to come with a lawyer, and no-one should face prosecution for anything said at the enquiry.
Often the way in discourse.
"It wasn't intentional. But I've lost the car keys, can you come and get me?"
The reason all this is particularly important is because it tells us so much of why our pandemic story has unfolded the way it has. Time and again, Boris Johnson has so deeply regretted even the prospect of having to do difficult things that he hasn’t done them, meaning he has had to do even more regrettable things later. He seems most comfortable casting himself as forever the passive victim of events as opposed to someone who should be out in front of them, shaping them as decisively as possible.
A fascinating article by the pollster James Johnson this week charted the PM’s descent in the focus groups over the course of the past year. “As yet another inevitable decision was finally made,” he reported, “people came to think more and more that the man who was meant to lead them was following them instead.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/01/boris-johnson-victim-emotions
The only story here is how good Cummings is at getting others (not just you) to take him at his own valuation. Advisers get to advise, is all, and preferably on things they know something about, and when they cease to be advisers they cease to advise.
--AS
India approves Oxford vaccine.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/india-approves-astrazeneca-s-covid-19-vaccine-1.1139147
Especially good news, since they have a massive factory ready to make over 100m does a month.
So when they say school is safe remember they don't think schools are safe for THEIR children. Your little rats on the other hand, totally worth the risk.
Statement to be made tomorrow PM.
1. January is going to be terrible, we need to lock down tight right now.
2. This includes schools and Universities.
3.Nothing is more important than maximising the number of vaccinations, it is the only way that we can stop this new variant.
4. If we can get enough people vaccinated in January February can be better and March better still.
JFDI.
But until we get an answer we must assume that they *can* spread it. It would surely be immoral to do otherwise. And as far as I can see we won't really get the answer for quite a long time, since it will have to be inferred from extremely noisy and confounded data. I think it's likely that we only start to be fairly sure about the degree to which vaccination prevents spread around the same time that we vaccinate a lot of the population.
--AS
(Actually he has his moments, at least for his audience).
But it is a trillion dollar question because it will determine how fast the economy can come back to anything like normal. I would suggest that a bit more urgency in determining the answer might be in order.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
On the last point, that's what I've always said - Boris is the PM, Dom merely gave advice (the notion that matters were in fact inverted was a favourite ScottPism that some others on here also liked to adopt).
At Uni I could happily lurk about the place at all seasons if I so chose, and it was actually cheap to do so in that rents were per term.
I agree that becomes even more important if the vaccines protect from disease, but still allow asymptomatic spread.
1. How will hospitals still be overrun when non-vulnerable groups (under 60, no underlying health conditions) are unlikely to be hospitalised by the virus?
2. It’s the government’s job to overcome any production problems. They ordered 100m in September. They have a paltry 500k ready. Absolutely pathetic.
https://twitter.com/MarkAitken1/status/1345704617414455298
I agree that determining the answer is important, but it's just a really hard problem. To run a controlled experiment you'd need to vaccinate a volunteer, deliberately expose them to COVID, then put them in a room with an unvaccinated volunteer. And see how many of the latter catch it. This would be an unethical experiment at the moment. Challenge trials are indeed starting but there's a very long way to go before they produce results even about efficacy, let alone transmissibility. Their first task is simply to determine what a "dose" of COVID should be.
So we're left with the uncontrolled experiments that societies are currently running. Unfortunately they are full of confounding variables. As kinablu says, behaviour of the vaccinated. Plus behaviour changes in the population at large (lockdowns, school closures, etc), the mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated, and even a bit of herd immunity. If we're really lucky and both the vaccines almost totally prevent transmission then we may see it in the age-stratified case data pretty sharply. If only one vaccine does, or both reduce it only partially, it will be difficult to unpick this signal from all the other noise. I know some of the people analyzing the data and they are good, so if there's a clear answer I think they will find it.
The best we can do is vaccinate as many as possible as quickly as possible. And pray the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. I must say that Malmesbury's data posts fill me with disquiet on this.
--AS
If he makes it later than that he’s facing actual riots, which might defeat the object.
2. I think the government have a role as facilitators but what do you want them to do if they make an order and don't receive it because of production problems?
--AS
However, I would also say first order of business is finishing vaccinations, and moving on to following through for less wealthy countries.
(Afternoon all)
And pity France at around 350
I'm not doubting you, just your answer wasn't as I thought it would be. Thus I was surprised.
Reflecting on the happenings wrt to the Grenfell enquiry, I am wondering whether it is possible, or if "Judge-led enquiry" is about to become a devalued phrase.
Question then becomes who would become leader. I think the Red Wall here is crucial. It pays to remember the constituency who gets to decide who goes through to the final round and, unlike in 2019, many of those initial "voters" (i.e. Tory MPs) will be Red Wall MPs who will be desperate for someone who can help them hang onto their seats. That's why I don't think someone like Hunt has a chance because he would go down like a bucket of sick in many RW places. Out of the Cabinet, the only ones I can see vaguely been seen to be appealing to those voters are Truss and Patel. Forget Gove.
I therefore think you are looking for someone out of the Cabinet. I'm also tempted to dust off my Esther McVey piece for why she could be leader (don't laugh...) not because I think she will be, especially after her previous attempt, but because someone with her type of background and views - northern, working class(-ish) and favouring Blue Collar Conservatism - will likely appeal to a large chunk of the MPs that make up the initial voting constituency that decides. So look out for any credible candidates from there.
https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1345775770803843073
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare says 944,539 up to the 27th
We have another week since then - the data for which will probably be released on Wednesday.
1) Liverpool FC are the best, support any other team and you're going in a home
2) Pineapple does NOT belong on pizza
3) No screens at the dinner table
| Age | Deaths | Hospitalisations | Percent of Population | Number in population |
| 85 years and over | 41.75% | 23.20% | 2.47% | 1,647,271 |
| 75 to 84 years | 32.82% | 25.75% | 6.05% | 4,040,624 |
| 65 to 74 years | 15.14% | 17.91% | 10.01% | 6,687,066 |
| 45 to 64 years | 9.24% | 21.74% | 25.79% | 17,224,230 |
| 15 to 44 years | 1.03% | 9.84% | 37.78% | 25,236,635 |
| 1 to 14 years | 0.01% | 1.50% | 16.82% | 11,238,100 |
| Under 1 year | 0.00% | 0.05% | 1.08% | 722,881 |
If you want a political and adversarial enquiry, seeking to blame people for decisions and for witnesses to grandstand for the media, then a “Judge-led enquiry” is they way to go.
Alternatively, if you want a data-led enquiry looking at the methodology by which decisions were taken and the impact of decisions taken on outcomes, without seeking to blame individuals, and provide recommendations to avoid the failures in the future, then look instead to the methodologies used by the AAIB and RAIB.
As some of you may recall, I cashed out on "the Rishi Sunak" [sic.] in December. It's not that he isn't still favourite. It's that there are too many curve-balls around at the moment. I'm not sure Gove will be the answer for the Conservative Party. I rather doubt it. The union as we knew it is probably already doomed anyway: Northern Ireland will have to unite with the south after Johnson's Brexit. It's only a question of when. Will a United Kingdom survive with the Scots rightly agitating to leave?