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After a quick & successful vaccine rollout, this is the second most thing I want to see in 2021 – po

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited January 2021 in General
After a quick & successful vaccine rollout, this is the second most thing I want to see in 2021 – politicalbetting.com

Dominic Cummings is ready to testify that Boris rejected his advice to lock down, says Robert Peston https://t.co/pWCZ0S2TWY

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Yesterday's man.
  • I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ‘please no jokes about if Michael Gove is the man to save the Union then Union is already doomed’

    That’s not a joke, just a statement of fact.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.

    Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Wormtongues gonna wormtongue.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    I will.
    IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer.
    Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved.
    However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    The problem is that plenty of the UK media hate the guts of the pair of them, for bringing us Brexit in first place.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    edited January 2021
    Mr. T, I've referred to it before but it's relevat* so I'll refer again:

    when at university (psychology) one of the most interesting snippets of info I learned was of a study in the late 80s or early 90s. Homophobes opposed increased gay rights (marriage, next of kin status, adoption rights etc). But, when told gay people didn't want those rights, homophobes approved of them.

    It wasn't about the rights, it was about being seen to disagree with 'the gays'.

    If disagreeing with the arch-imbecile means agreeing with his erstwhile Grand Vizier, I suspect those ideologically opposed to the Conservatives (or possibly just the PM individually) will be content to do so.

    Edited extra bit: relevant*, even.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    The problem is that plenty of the UK media hate the guts of the pair of them, for bringing us Brexit in first place.
    Of course plenty of normal people also think the same.
  • TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    edited January 2021

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    It's unlikely to be proven, one way or the other.

    We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    You only impose lockdowns as a last resort given the economic damage, nothing wrong with what Sunak did and Gove would guarantee a Starmer landslide in 2024
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    It's unlikely to be proven.

    We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
    We don't actually know that. We don't know what would have happened if no "firebreak" was implemented. That said, it wasn't exactly a resounding success.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    Given that plenty of the voters aren't all that fussed about COVID (why are cases so high if that isn't the case?), then I doubt there will be much concern about who was or wasn't to blame.

    On the other hand, should house prices collapse...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    You also do not decide the future of the Union based on a soccer match
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    HYUFD said:

    You also do not decide the future of the Union based on a soccer match

    Nor on the whim of the Tory party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    @HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?

    I do not care what red wall voters think on that, I would rather preserve the Union than win a general election.

    The Union once lost cannot be restored, you can win another general election however
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    HYUFD said:

    You also do not decide the future of the Union based on a soccer match

    I think it would be a safer bet for the unionists than what you're proposing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376
    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    Support for, and opposition to, Boris Johnson is pretty well baked into the polling, I think.

    Then you get people like me, who think he's bit of a shit, who thinks he can wing it, so don't really get worked up about the revelation that he's a bit of a shit who thinks he can wing it.
  • Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    It's unlikely to be proven.

    We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
    But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    DavidL said:

    Yesterday's man.

    Yesterday's men.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    DavidL said:

    I think that's the first ever reference to The Mandalorian in a PB thread header.

    Still got to watch that. My daughter got Disney+ for Christmas so its on the list.
    Disney+ was one of my Christmas presents. Not much other than The Mandalorian on it for me, but that was more than enough.

    Is it just me, or was it a very deliberate use of Clint Eastwood's voice of The Man With No Name by Mando?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?

    I do not care what red wall voters think on that, I would rather preserve the Union than win a general election.

    The Union once lost cannot be restored, you can win another general election however
    Then why do you support policies that decrease support for the union?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    HYUFD said:

    You also do not decide the future of the Union based on a soccer match

    Nor on the whim of the Tory party.
    When the Tory party is in power with a majority at Westminster it gets the final say actually
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376

    Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    It's unlikely to be proven.

    We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
    But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
    But, will they be voters who are not already hostile?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited January 2021

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?

    I do not care what red wall voters think on that, I would rather preserve the Union than win a general election.

    The Union once lost cannot be restored, you can win another general election however
    Then why do you support policies that decrease support for the union?
    I don't, I voted Remain in 2016, though I respect the Leave vote and I support devomax for Holyrood
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited January 2021
    FPT

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Query: why hasn't Scottish Labour started to bounce back?

    The SNP has been in power for a while, so I'd expect fatigue to set in among the electorate.

    The Conservatives have the twin problems of having lost a charismatic leader in Scotland and having King of the Arseheads in Westminster.

    The Lib Dems aren't really anywhere, are they?

    So... was Corbyn kryptonite there too? How's Starmer viewed?

    I don't think the general populace was that bothered about Corbyn and not much more or less about SKS; the SLab membership otoh wanted some un-noisy competence and plumped quite heavily for SKS, as predicted by lil ol' me. Leonard is a drag on the brand for reasons of meh and thickness.

    Point of order, the SCons lost charismatic leader is currently leader in Holyrood to not much effect. The 'Why does Nicola Sturgeon hate Arbroath Smokies?' moment was good though.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    People know that he Covid bug didn't cme with an operating manual. It came with a bunch of scientists saying "Do this! No, do that!".

    The ultimate measure will be "Did we vaccinate at least as quick as other countries?" If so, then by the time of the next election, no great political price. "Did we vaccinate markedly quicker than other countries? " Big political prize.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. HYUFD, it's not hardline nationalists but those who might vote either way who may take notice of how it's handled.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You also do not decide the future of the Union based on a soccer match

    Nor on the whim of the Tory party.
    When the Tory party is in power with a majority at Westminster it gets the final say actually
    On introducing a poll tax, for instance.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?

    I do not care what red wall voters think on that, I would rather preserve the Union than win a general election.

    The Union once lost cannot be restored, you can win another general election however
    Then why do you support policies that decrease support for the union?
    I don't, I voted Remain in 2016, though I respect the Leave vote and I support devomax for Holyrood
    You've been told repeatedly by Scottish people themselves that denying an independence vote, if that's what the Scottish voters vote for this year, will increase support for independence.

    But as usual you think you know better.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Before the abuse begins on here from the usual suspects..

    No-one knows how the next couple of years will pan out. The SNP could indeed descend into civil war over tactics. They may not. Indy support could rise or fall. Others may think Scotland can declare UDI, take no debt or deficit and find life outside the union is amazingly simple. All opinions.

    What would be nice is if people could have an argument without it descending into mud slinging on here.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    I wonder if Mr Gove's fearing a backlash in the event of Scottish independence? From his own party members, reacting to him making so much of his Scottish roots. In which case, no benefit to him of Mr Johnson resigning, for he won't be a serious candidate for PM of the rUK (rather unfairly, I think, but I have a horrible feeling Tory Party members won't be agreeing with me).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    edited January 2021

    Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    It's unlikely to be proven.

    We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
    But if Boris Johnson's former top aide says that to a select committee then it'll be proven in the eyes of plenty of voters.
    I think that the timing of lockdowns will always be controversial and arguable.

    What is more likely to be damaging is if Cummings confirms publicly the incompetence, dysfunctionality and bluster at the heart of government.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Yesterday's man.

    Yesterday's men.
    No, one is still PM, the deliverer of the deal and the first approved vaccine. The other is a former advisor who severely embarrassed his boss, got more support than he probably deserved and is now going to come across as bitter. Frankly, who cares what he thinks or thought?

    These were difficult decisions seeking to balance a death toll against economic damage. Anyone who pretends otherwise or suggests that the government could go to one extreme or the other really isn't worth listening to and won't be listened to by the vast majority.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    There's an argument that if the Government hinted that they would in fact allow a referendum in the event of a nationalist majority, it would focus minds and put off wavering unionists from voting SNP.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Bloody Scottish independence yet again, for god sake stop posting the same shit about an event that isn’t even scheduled.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. Divvie, cheers for that answer.

    Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?
  • Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    Support for, and opposition to, Boris Johnson is pretty well baked into the polling, I think.

    Then you get people like me, who think he's bit of a shit, who thinks he can wing it, so don't really get worked up about the revelation that he's a bit of a shit who thinks he can wing it.
    It's baked in, but it's hard and brittle.

    Deep down, everyone knows that Boris wings it and deeper down, that's no way to run a country.

    At some point, something trivial is going to make Boris's hard brittle support shatter.

    The fact is, this is his third chance to get ahead of the Covid game, and he's fluffed it in exactly the same way he did in March and September. If twice begins to look like carelessness, what is three times?

    (And then there's the What If that would give me nightmares. Had there been half as much Covid in circulation in SE England in the autumn, there would have been half the chance that a random spike in a random virus had mutated. Sleep well, Boris. Sleep well, Rishi.)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,352
    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    One for HYFUD
    https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1301600379520659456
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Friday June 18th 2021 will be the fourth day of the Royal Ascot meeting, a much more significant event than some football match between a couple of teams from an island to the north-west of Europe.

    I mean - England vs Scotland - who cares?

    Put that against the Coronation Stakes and there's only one winner.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    There's an argument that if the Government hinted that they would in fact allow a referendum in the event of a nationalist majority, it would focus minds and put off wavering unionists from voting SNP.

    Labour have already said that, at least they would consider it after 2 years, that is up to them.

    In any case wavering Unionists would only switch from SNP to Labour, barely any of them would ever consider voting Tory, only diehard Unionists in Scotland vote Conservative
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    On topic, there are 4 nations in the UK following somewhat different strategies.

    I think Boris/Rishi would be in serious trouble if England suffered demonstrably worse in the pandemic than Scotland, or Wales or N. Ireland.

    It is not obvious to me at the moment that such is the case.

    All 4 countries seem to have performed much the same (within margin of error). And all 4 seem to be pretty typical of performance generally in Western Europe.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    There's an argument that if the Government hinted that they would in fact allow a referendum in the event of a nationalist majority, it would focus minds and put off wavering unionists from voting SNP.

    Labour have already said that, at least they would consider it after 2 years, that is up to them.

    In any case wavering Unionists would only switch from SNP to Labour, barely any of them would ever consider voting Tory, only diehard Unionists in Scotland vote Conservative
    Yes but without a nationalist majority there will be no IndyRef2 anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    There's an argument that if the Government hinted that they would in fact allow a referendum in the event of a nationalist majority, it would focus minds and put off wavering unionists from voting SNP.

    The problem with that IIRC polling showed that there are more people in favour of having a referendum than voting for indy. (THis was some time ago, mind.)

    Of course Wendy Alexander (remember her? About 10 SLAB leaders back, one loses count) actually argued for the UK Gmt imposing a referendum. She got the sack (can't remember whether it was mostly from her own SLAB colleagues or her bosses in London, but I don't suppose Mr Alexander D. wanted to lose his chance to play with the London train set).

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    The problem is that plenty of the UK media hate the guts of the pair of them, for bringing us Brexit in first place.
    I'm not an enormous Cummings fan, because my belief is that successful businesses (and countries) usually come through a process of incrementalism or iteration; Cummings, on the other hand, is a believer in revolution.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    You also do not decide the future of the Union based on a soccer match

    Nor on the whim of the Tory party.
    When the Tory party is in power with a majority at Westminster it gets the final say actually
    And you wonder why Scotland wants to be independent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD have you been to any "red wall" seats recently and asked people if they care whether Scotland leaves the union or not?

    I do not care what red wall voters think on that, I would rather preserve the Union than win a general election.

    The Union once lost cannot be restored, you can win another general election however
    Then why do you support policies that decrease support for the union?
    I don't, I voted Remain in 2016, though I respect the Leave vote and I support devomax for Holyrood
    You've been told repeatedly by Scottish people themselves that denying an independence vote, if that's what the Scottish voters vote for this year, will increase support for independence.

    But as usual you think you know better.
    No evidence it will, the 40% hardcore who want one within 2 years would all vote Yes anyway.

    If you grant an independence referendum where at best there is only a 50% chance of No winning that is far more of a threat to the Union however than respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote and refusing to grant one at all until that generation has elapsed
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    nichomar said:

    Bloody Scottish independence yet again, for god sake stop posting the same shit about an event that isn’t even scheduled.

    If the tone set by members on here is a prerequisite to any future referendum, we are doomed.

    Oh, and HYUFD could be right for all I know.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    Support for, and opposition to, Boris Johnson is pretty well baked into the polling, I think.

    Then you get people like me, who think he's bit of a shit, who thinks he can wing it, so don't really get worked up about the revelation that he's a bit of a shit who thinks he can wing it.
    It's baked in, but it's hard and brittle.

    Deep down, everyone knows that Boris wings it and deeper down, that's no way to run a country.

    At some point, something trivial is going to make Boris's hard brittle support shatter.

    The fact is, this is his third chance to get ahead of the Covid game, and he's fluffed it in exactly the same way he did in March and September. If twice begins to look like carelessness, what is three times?

    (And then there's the What If that would give me nightmares. Had there been half as much Covid in circulation in SE England in the autumn, there would have been half the chance that a random spike in a random virus had mutated. Sleep well, Boris. Sleep well, Rishi.)
    Wait until he utterly f*cks up the vaccine roll out. Just a matter of time now based on past performances.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited January 2021
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    You may not like it but if the SNP won a majority and hardliners took over the party and declared UDI after Boris refused a legal indyref2 we would be in a Spain Catalonia 2017 scenario whether you liked it or not.

    I would not like it either but that would be a possible outcome we could not ignore
  • Fascinating politics if true.

    Trouble is, the cast of characters includes a number of accomplished liars.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    Support for, and opposition to, Boris Johnson is pretty well baked into the polling, I think.

    Then you get people like me, who think he's bit of a shit, who thinks he can wing it, so don't really get worked up about the revelation that he's a bit of a shit who thinks he can wing it.
    It's baked in, but it's hard and brittle.

    Deep down, everyone knows that Boris wings it and deeper down, that's no way to run a country.

    At some point, something trivial is going to make Boris's hard brittle support shatter.

    The fact is, this is his third chance to get ahead of the Covid game, and he's fluffed it in exactly the same way he did in March and September. If twice begins to look like carelessness, what is three times?

    (And then there's the What If that would give me nightmares. Had there been half as much Covid in circulation in SE England in the autumn, there would have been half the chance that a random spike in a random virus had mutated. Sleep well, Boris. Sleep well, Rishi.)
    Wait until he utterly f*cks up the vaccine roll out. Just a matter of time now based on past performances.
    We're doing ok so far. Just need to keep it up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    You may not like it but if the SNP won a majority and hardliners took over the party and declared UDI after Boris refused a legal indyref2 we would be in a Spain Catalonia 2017 scenario whether you liked it or not
    As usual, you are delibrately omitting the Scottish Greens.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    The problem is that plenty of the UK media hate the guts of the pair of them, for bringing us Brexit in first place.
    I'm not an enormous Cummings fan, because my belief is that successful businesses (and countries) usually come through a process of incrementalism or iteration; Cummings, on the other hand, is a believer in revolution.
    Having spent the better part of a year explaining that good data analysis is about making a bunch incremental gains rather than have a "data revolution" it's a difficult thing to get across to senior management (and politicians, I expect). They all want the big headline or big project they can attach their name to, not a version 1.01 of something that already exists.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Sean_F said:

    TimT said:

    Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.

    If it is seen that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak are responsible for X thousands of avoidable deaths then the voters will make it a major issue.
    It's unlikely to be proven, one way or the other.

    We do actually have a test case of implementing a two-week firebreak, in Wales. It achieved the square root of nothing.
    If it were done properly - i.e. a really serious two week lockdown, with no schools etc. - then it might have helped ameliorate the effects of the cases imported from Summer holidays, and that *might* have put us a month back on the curve...

    But getting political buy in for a lockdown in September, when cases were few, would have been very difficult.

    Simpler and more effective, would probably have been proper quarantines for incoming travellers. Which - somehow - is never on the government agenda, despite the fact that almost who has successfully controlled CV19 has them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    If we all stop mentioning it, maybe he’ll shut up of his own accord?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    You may not like it but if the SNP won a majority and hardliners took over the party and declared UDI after Boris refused a legal indyref2 we would be in a Spain Catalonia 2017 scenario whether you liked it or not.

    I would not like it either but that would be a possible outcome we could not ignore
    If.... if..... if..... if.... if.... then Spain.

    We are not yet even at the first ‘if’, we are a long way to go before we get close to Spain - and continual mention of “Scotland is like Spain” sends more votes to the nationalists at the upcoming election.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2021
    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:
  • HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff

    A declaration of UDI is entirely pointless if there is no means of enforcing it. There was no Madrid/Catalonia stand-off about that in 2017 because at no point did the Spanish state even begin to run the risk of losing control. For a UDI to work as a strategy you need to have access to levers of power and international support. Nicola Sturgeon seems to understand that.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    edited January 2021
    UK cases by specimen date

    There is a massive, massive weekend effect doing on - zero cases for days in some jurisdictions. So Tuesday and Wednesday will be massive next week in Reporting Day numbers

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    Man who breaks quarantine has zero credibility when demanding lockdown and is therefore ignored?

    That’s really astonishing.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited January 2021

    Mr. T, I've referred to it before but it's relevat* so I'll refer again:

    when at university (psychology) one of the most interesting snippets of info I learned was of a study in the late 80s or early 90s. Homophobes opposed increased gay rights (marriage, next of kin status, adoption rights etc). But, when told gay people didn't want those rights, homophobes approved of them.

    It wasn't about the rights, it was about being seen to disagree with 'the gays'.

    If disagreeing with the arch-imbecile means agreeing with his erstwhile Grand Vizier, I suspect those ideologically opposed to the Conservatives (or possibly just the PM individually) will be content to do so.

    Edited extra bit: relevant*, even.

    In other words, my enemy's enemy is my friend. Yeah, I get that. But I think another social psychology concept comes in here - confirmation bias - we seek out news and evidence which confirms our existing viewpoint and beliefs. For the vast swaths of the population disinterested in political minutiae, I suspect neither of these come into play.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK local R

    image
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK case summary

    Today

    image

    Yesterday

    image
  • HYUFD said:

    There's an argument that if the Government hinted that they would in fact allow a referendum in the event of a nationalist majority, it would focus minds and put off wavering unionists from voting SNP.

    Labour have already said that, at least they would consider it after 2 years, that is up to them.

    In any case wavering Unionists would only switch from SNP to Labour, barely any of them would ever consider voting Tory, only diehard Unionists in Scotland vote Conservative
    I can tell you I know several SNP supporters who vote for the union and vote conservative
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK Positivity

    image
    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    Sandpit said:

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
    The obvious question from an MP on the SC is: "Why would it matter if there was another lockdown imposed, you've shown the nation that the rules are there to be broken?".

    Doing a Dom has now become standard lingo for breaking the rules in some way or other.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK Hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    It may have been the wrong decision but if it is true that the Chancellor helped make a decision that over ruled an advisor then at least cabinet governance wasn't completed at sea during the autumn.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK Deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    You may not like it but if the SNP won a majority and hardliners took over the party and declared UDI after Boris refused a legal indyref2 we would be in a Spain Catalonia 2017 scenario whether you liked it or not.

    I would not like it either but that would be a possible outcome we could not ignore
    If.... if..... if..... if.... if.... then Spain.

    We are not yet even at the first ‘if’, we are a long way to go before we get close to Spain - and continual mention of “Scotland is like Spain” sends more votes to the nationalists at the upcoming election.

    There is one huge difference between Scotland and Spain: it was never in the Spanish government's power to give Catalonia an independence referendum. It would have been legally impossible for it to have done so, even if it wanted to: Spain has a written constitution which is very clear about the circumstances under which any move to change the territory of Spain might occur - it needs the express approval of the Spanish people as a whole. By contrast, the UK's unwritten constitution provides a lot more flexibility: Number one, a referendum is in the gift of the government; and, number two, it is only the Scots who need to vote in favour of independence for it to happen.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Afternoon all :)

    We shouldn't forget Thatcher, Cameron and May all resigned while in office rather than via a General Election while Major survived a challenge in office and lost at a GE so statistically Johnson is more likely to be "jabbed" by his own backbenchers than by the voters.

    I expect there will be a Covid weariness or ennui by the time we get to any public enquiry. There's a clear desire to forget the whole thing happened and concentrate on the future so any attempt to rake over the coals of decisions past will get short shrift from the public - that'll be the hope of those supportive of the Government.

    I suspect the political manifestation will be a "refresh" of the Government in the autumn (just before the Conservative Party Conference) with a raft of "new faces" promoted to give the Government a new look - I'm sure there will be plenty of discussion as to which "bright young things" need to move up the ladder. My early hat tip is Julia Lopez.

    That being said, the path of accountability and scrutiny is going to be a rocky one. Simply saying "we've done better than country x or y" isn't what it's about - we aren't responsible for whatever measures France, Italy or Bolivia or wherever decided to impose. Decisions on closing or not closing the borders and actions taken with regard to care homes are two areas where I think the Government has explanations to provide, evidence to produce and questions to answer - that's wholly reasonable.

    As the header suggests, it sounds as though similar questions will need to be asked about decisions made in July, August and September.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209


    On topic, there are 4 nations in the UK following somewhat different strategies.

    I think Boris/Rishi would be in serious trouble if England suffered demonstrably worse in the pandemic than Scotland, or Wales or N. Ireland.

    It is not obvious to me at the moment that such is the case.

    All 4 countries seem to have performed much the same (within margin of error). And all 4 seem to be pretty typical of performance generally in Western Europe.

    I think that's right.

    I think if you look at performance by country (in W Europe, excluding Sweden), then number of infections and deaths are highly correlated with two factors:

    1) Number of single person households - those with many, like Norway or Denmark, have done best
    and
    2) Number of intergenerational households - those with many, like Italy and Spain, have done worst
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    If we all stop mentioning it, maybe he’ll shut up of his own accord?
    Who's mentioning it other than HYUFD?

    It's not as if we go on about Spanish fly, Spanish omelettes, sauce espagnole, Harriers in the [modern] Armada, etc.

    There is definitely a deficit of Spain-ness here. Apart from those of us who live there, and have interesting comments on it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    UK R

    From case data

    image
    image

    From hospital data

    image
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Sandpit said:

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
    The chances are 100%. You can bet your house and your grandmother on it...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Age related data

    image
    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Starmer calls for tougher restrictions in next 24 hours.
    Captain Hindsight, Foresight, or statement of the bleeding obvious?
  • Mr. Divvie, cheers for that answer.

    Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?

    In periods of cold calculation, I try to see a path back for SLab but it's hard. All the stuff that's blighted them for years is still there and in spades: lack of talent, inconsistency, enthusiastic collaboration with the Tories in 2014, broken promises.

    One small bellwether is the ex MP for my constituency 2017-19, Paul Sweeney. He's standing as a list candidate for Glasgow in the May election (not sure how high on that list he is for SLab, that will have some bearing) . Obviously personal rep has a lot less meaning in list elections but if he's elected it might be a sign of tiny shoots of recovery for SLab. Personally I find him a self-publicising, ambitious wee snot, but he's not stupid and these characteristics often seem to work for aspiring pols of all parties.

    He was involved in the stushie about the SCon MP Ross Thomson being accused of assault which now appears to be without foundation; that may depress any tactical voting by Cons if they're paying attention.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    HYUFD said:

    There's an argument that if the Government hinted that they would in fact allow a referendum in the event of a nationalist majority, it would focus minds and put off wavering unionists from voting SNP.

    Labour have already said that, at least they would consider it after 2 years, that is up to them.

    In any case wavering Unionists would only switch from SNP to Labour, barely any of them would ever consider voting Tory, only diehard Unionists in Scotland vote Conservative
    I can tell you I know several SNP supporters who vote for the union and vote conservative
    It was very common under Salmond, Tartan Tories were a significant part of his support base. Less so under Nicola who has much more clearly based the party on the centre left with devastating consequences for SLAB. The result is a modest Tory revival in the "non Labour" parts of Scotland but Nicola has focused on the main chance and the majority. She is a formidable politician.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    Mr. Divvie, cheers for that answer.

    Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?

    In periods of cold calculation, I try to see a path back for SLab but it's hard. All the stuff that's blighted them for years is still there and in spades: lack of talent, inconsistency, enthusiastic collaboration with the Tories in 2014, broken promises.

    One small bellwether is the ex MP for my constituency 2017-19, Paul Sweeney. He's standing as a list candidate for Glasgow in the May election (not sure how high on that list he is for SLab, that will have some bearing) . Obviously personal rep has a lot less meaning in list elections but if he's elected it might be a sign of tiny shoots of recovery for SLab. Personally I find him a self-publicising, ambitious wee snot, but he's not stupid and these characteristics often seem to work for aspiring pols of all parties.

    He was involved in the stushie about the SCon MP Ross Thomson being accused of assault which now appears to be without foundation; that may depress any tactical voting by Cons if they're paying attention.
    The Sweeney/Thomson matter seems to be still ongoing ... no comment.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/former-labour-mp-lodges-appeal-23153724
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited January 2021

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    It may have been the wrong decision but if it is true that the Chancellor helped make a decision that over ruled an advisor then at least cabinet governance wasn't completed at sea during the autumn.
    I think it’s more likely they didn’t believe it would get as bad as it did as fast as it did, because of what we had learned from the first major outbreak. And therefore, the economic damage at a time when the national economy was already in serious difficulties was not justifiable.

    It’s worth remembering that I was pessimistic about the chances of getting schools through to Christmas without formal closures. OK, so at various times 25% of children were off, and for a rough guess around half had to isolate at one time or another, but I was wrong. We did just about get to Christmas.

    With hindsight, that was deeply unfortunate as if we had closed on the 9th this variant would likely be a lot less widespread and we wouldn’t now be wondering exactly when schools were going to reopen.

    Similarly, with hindsight we should have acted faster in September. But speaking as one of the government’s fiercest critics, it was an understandable misjudgement and it was if anything to their credit that they didn’t want to jump straight to the authoritarian and economically damaging option.

    And incidentally, if Cummings had been in favour of a lockdown that would have prejudiced me against it as well given his judgement is truly shocking.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Yes, I've been among those who up to now have said that everyone I know has been following the rules. I know a lot of exceptions over Christmas of the kind she describes and even some surprise that I was really spending it on my own. Most of them seem keen to be compliant again now, but I do expect trouble in the next week's figures.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Be fair to HYUFD, he is consistent:
    1. No won the referendum
    2. There will be no other referendum
    3. If Scotland doesn't like it Scotland can be crushed into submission
    4. Vote Tory

    I did not actually say 2, I agree with Boris this morning that a second referendum in about 2055 would be allowed ie a 41 year gap as between the 1975 EEC referendum and the 2016 EU referendum
    But you don’t say it like that.

    You say that we will campaign against a referendum, but if the Scottish Parliament votes for one then of course the U.K. Parliament will have to consider it.

    You then have a vote in Parliament, which gets voted down 550-80 or thereabouts, and can park the issue for a while.

    That’s completely truthful, but also polite a process-driven, rather than needlessly antagonistic.
    So Holyrood gets an SNP majority, Westminster overwhelmingly rejects it and you expect SNP hardliners to meekly accept that and shut up?
    I’m saying that Westminster as a whole rejects it with a formal vote, rather than the PM personally telling Nippy to go f*** herself.

    One of these processes likely causes a civil war among the nationalists, the other likely causes them to band together behind their leader.
    Whether Boris rejects it or MPs as a whole reject it it will make no difference to hardline nationalists, many of them would start to demand a referendum be held anyway and push Sturgeon to declare UDI if there is an SNP Holyrood majority, at which point we are already in a Madrid Catalonia 2017 style standoff
    Stop mentioning Spain. Seriously.
    You may not like it but if the SNP won a majority and hardliners took over the party and declared UDI after Boris refused a legal indyref2 we would be in a Spain Catalonia 2017 scenario whether you liked it or not.

    I would not like it either but that would be a possible outcome we could not ignore
    If.... if..... if..... if.... if.... then Spain.

    We are not yet even at the first ‘if’, we are a long way to go before we get close to Spain - and continual mention of “Scotland is like Spain” sends more votes to the nationalists at the upcoming election.
    Point of order: isn't Scotland more like Catalonia than Spain, in your example?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Sandpit said:

    Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?

    Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns... :wink:

    Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
    The obvious question from an MP on the SC is: "Why would it matter if there was another lockdown imposed, you've shown the nation that the rules are there to be broken?".

    Doing a Dom has now become standard lingo for breaking the rules in some way or other.
    Or, more sharply, "do you think your own personal conduct was consistent with the urgency of compliance with a lockdown? Did that not undermine your own argument?"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Scott_xP said:
    Lockdown 3: Lockdown with a Vengeance. The political Willis to remove the virus.
  • stodge said:

    Friday June 18th 2021 will be the fourth day of the Royal Ascot meeting, a much more significant event than some football match between a couple of teams from an island to the north-west of Europe.

    I mean - England vs Scotland - who cares?

    Put that against the Coronation Stakes and there's only one winner.

    No Coronation Street that night, ITV are showing England v. Scotland.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,352
    nichomar said:

    Bloody Scottish independence yet again, for god sake stop posting the same shit about an event that isn’t even scheduled.

    Away and play with your dolls.
This discussion has been closed.