Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?
In periods of cold calculation, I try to see a path back for SLab but it's hard. All the stuff that's blighted them for years is still there and in spades: lack of talent, inconsistency, enthusiastic collaboration with the Tories in 2014, broken promises.
One small bellwether is the ex MP for my constituency 2017-19, Paul Sweeney. He's standing as a list candidate for Glasgow in the May election (not sure how high on that list he is for SLab, that will have some bearing) . Obviously personal rep has a lot less meaning in list elections but if he's elected it might be a sign of tiny shoots of recovery for SLab. Personally I find him a self-publicising, ambitious wee snot, but he's not stupid and these characteristics often seem to work for aspiring pols of all parties.
He was involved in the stushie about the SCon MP Ross Thomson being accused of assault which now appears to be without foundation; that may depress any tactical voting by Cons if they're paying attention.
By “involved in” do you mean “made highly emotive allegations about a political opponent shortly before an election despite there being a remarkable lack of evidence?”
Behaviour like that should debar anyone from public life
Good old Toffs they always stick up for their wrong un's
I hope Raffensperger sticks around. He may well be a politician whose views on many things I would disagree with intensely for all I know, but at the very least he has been unwilling to equivocate in order to lend weight to Trump's delusions, and so ruin his personal integrity, when so many others have been more cowardly.
He's immediatly leapt on the "controversy" to start some good old voter suppression.
Just because trump is attacking him doesn't mean he isn't a grade A wanker.
@MaxPB - I have had the same conversion to the single shot policy as you. Begrudgingly, I have to admit that Blair seems to have called this right.
Let's be honest, Blair would have made a vastly better job of leading the country through this pnademic than Johnson has.
(As would Thatcher, Major, Brown, May, Cameron,... and just about every PM I can think of.)
Brown? Errr. Darling maybe. But not Brown.
Brown was an ordinary PM but he's a colossus compared to the disingenuous fat fornicator!
People don't like to hear it round here, but Brown is genuinely admired internationally for his work coordinating the G20 response to the financial crisis.
It's true: only the other day I was cycling along the beach, and I was flagged down by a young American couple.
"Are you British?" they asked. "Why, yes I am," I replied "Can we just say how grateful we are to your fellow Brit, Gordon Brown, for saving the world from the Global Financial Crisis," they said "Errr sure." "Just one question: why doesn't Gordon Brown get more credit in the UK for his prompt and decisive action?"
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Wait a minute, how did it happen that Cummings' advice was ignored? Wasn't he supposed to have been the real Prime Minister all along, as we've heard so many times before?
Anyway, I'm sure his testimony could clear all that up. Though how unfortunate it is that so many people devoted so much time and energy to annihilating Cummings' credibility on the subject of lockdowns...
Wait until the media, who have spend the last eight months trashing Cummings and everything he’s ever said, suddenly hang off his every word as gospel if he criticises the PM at an enquiry.
The chances are 100%. You can bet your house and your grandmother on it...
While Tories, who spent months defending his indefensible actions, go in precisely the opposite direction.
I find it remarkable that there is a breed of Tory apologist who supports the Conservative Government irrespective of their behaviour, much as the parent of a spoilt child would for their dreadful offspring.
I hope Raffensperger sticks around. He may well be a politician whose views on many things I would disagree with intensely for all I know, but at the very least he has been unwilling to equivocate in order to lend weight to Trump's delusions, and so ruin his personal integrity, when so many others have been more cowardly.
He's immediatly leapt on the "controversy" to start some good old voter suppression.
Just because trump is attacking him doesn't mean he isn't a grade A wanker.
I assumed as much, but as the alternative would seem to be someone who does that, and would have caved in to Trump, he's proven not to be the very bottom of the barrell.
In fairness he's right both historically and in the modern sense.
In 1707 they just bolted on the Scots MPs to the pre-existing Westminster Pmt.
Your second sentence completely invalidates the first sentence. Bolting on Scots MPs as you put it means it is no longer an English Parliament by definition, so how can those completely contradictory sentences make sense?
That's the Blairite + Cameronite combined devolution settlement for you.
So he's not right historically then?
He was right historically in the sense that they simply added a few MPs from Scotland to the Engliosh Pmt whgich otherwise carried on as before (for instance, making no attempt to allow for any representation of the C of S in the HoL for instance).
Of course things evolved in between times, and the current situation is, erm, anomalous.
At this point it is semantics. Legally, the last English parliament sat in 1707.
On a point of order, the last English Parliament was summoned in 1529.
When it was summoned again in 1536, two other countries sent representatives.
"Schools are safe", he says, overlooking that it's the children bringing the virus home that isnt safe
This subject is divisive across the country
However, it is vital that schools remain open as the damage to the children with closures will be do dreadful damage to their life chances
Schools should only close as a last resort
In two months things will be a lot better because of lockdown and vaccine. In three months the pressure on the NHS will have largely gone.
This is a last resort and if schools are closed for say a month it really wont make much difference to life chances. It is not an open ended closure like last time.
Have you any idea just how much damage this has already caused my granddaughter as she takes her A levels to secure her place in University in September. She is exceptionally talented but is receiving counselling for the stress she is undergoing with school closures and the lack of social connection with her friends
Oh please. I have a daughter who just started at university this year. I didn't get to see her at all for nine and a half months because of this. I know how hard it is for her.
I also have a friend whose friend has had their life-saving surgery cancelled because the operating theatre is being converted into Covid ICU.
The emergency is now. This is the time to take all the remaining "last resort" actions we have left.
I agree. This month is panic stations, a desperate race between the new variant and the vaccine with the winner having the hospitals. If we go fast enough with the vaccine next month might start to get better but we really need to move. Israel is vaccinating 1% of its population a day, that is about 680k for us. It seems a reasonable target.
To me, this moment in our Covid Crisis, seems very much like the fateful time Churchill visited the crucial 11th Fighter Group HQ, during the Battle of Britain, and looked at the map, showing the deployment of all RAF forces.
Churchill asked "So, where are the reserve fighters?"
The top brass said, "There are none, that's it".
As Churchill put it later, that “the odds were great; our margins small; the stakes infinite.” For fifty minutes, there were no more British fighters available
We are in that moment. Throw everything we have at the virus, via vaccinations. Or face the worst.
It doesn't matter how much we throw at vaccinations, they will not make a material difference for several weeks. Right now, sadly, it's still all about lockdown.
As part of doing the maths for the vaccine rollout in the UK (and Europe) I have changed my mind about the JVCI decision on single jabs and a 12 week waiting time. I've been reading a lot about how it would work and I've been speaking to a lot of people who are much better informed about it than I am as part of the research process. Ultimately it boils down to this, with a million doses of vaccine we can either get 700k people immunised in three weeks or 475k in five weeks assuming 70% efficacy for a single jab after three weeks and 95% for two jabs two weeks after the second. I think the JVCI have made the right decision here, we're in this as a nation rather than as individuals which means getting as many people immunised as possible in the shortest period of time is what we need to be looking at.
Additionally, after speaking to one of the leading experts on vaccine based immunity they seemed to think that the longer gap between Pfizer jabs would get an even stronger immunity as the B cells actually give a stronger response to known pathogens during weeks 6-15 after the initial infection. They said that without the pandemic Pfizer would probably have tested 3, 6, 9 and 12 week intervals as part of their PIII/IV trials but under the circumstances of emergency approval it's not easy to run them.
I think that other countries are going to have to hold their noses and follow suit especially in Europe where vaccine doses are going to be in short supply all the way through 2021.
So yeah, I take back my original position on this and say bravo to the JVCI decision and begrudgingly Tony Blair.
It means it's crucial though that vaccinated people continue to follow the same restrictions as everyone else because both the individual risk and the danger of spreading the virus will remain substantial for them. But it should eventually bring down R enough to allow gradually easing restrictions for everyone.
Yes, I think this is not properly understood yet. Too many people seem to be saying "when I've had my vaccine I can go out with friends / on holiday / to a rave". Someone is going to have to break it to the public that vaccination does not mean that the restrictions do not apply. Legally, or morally. Not until vaccination is much more widespread.
--AS
Once the 15 million vulnerable people have been vaccinated, lockdowns must end. That’s why the government needs to ramp up deployment. Utterly trivial nonsense stories like ‘2,000 people have a party in France’ or ‘Tyson Fury on holiday in Florida’ need to play second fiddle to stories like: ‘WTF has the government only got 500 Oxon vaccines ready to go?’
I don't think the arithmetic quite works for 15 million vaccinated being enough to end lockdown altogether. Otherwise hospitals will still be overrun, by under 65s. My estimate is 20-25 million, but I'm not sure about this: a lot depends on how vaccination slows spread. What I'm hoping is that, by the time they have 15 million done, they are going at such a pace that the next 10 million doesn't take too long.
Regarding supply, I do think the press should be telling the story of why it's been slow, but I don't think the government can really be blamed for it. Clearly there have been manufacturing problems. I don't think it's an easy problem to solve.
--AS
I think it's a mistake to think of this as a binary choice between lockdown and freedom. The reality is that some restrictions - even with widespread vaccine roll-outs - will likely be in place by the end of the year. Conversely, it likely quite a lot of restrictions will be removed relatively quickly.
In practice this is bound to be right. That's how things work. That said, I see much to recommend something sharp and delineated. An intense and prolonged national effort (tough restrictions) until "it's safe" - a condition I think it is possible to define in advance - and then FREEDOM DAY. This would provide a rousing and positive, genuinely communal end to a harrowing communal experience. It would be the start of the AC calendar.
The government has to tell us how many (annual) Covid deaths are acceptable. And I am not sure that number is non-zero.
Most people I know are staggered when they hear how many people die each day in the UK.
Most of them thought it was low 100s.
2-3000 ish?
(Working on 80 years is 30k ish days, and there’s 60m ish of us)
40,000 a day according to The Cult. But not sure of the geographic coverage.
40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectancy of 2 years and 3 months.
"Dharma says the song is about eternal love, rather than suicide.[6] He used Romeo and Juliet to describe a couple who wanted to be together in the afterlife.[7] He guessed that "40,000 men and women" died each day, and the figure was used several times in the lyrics; this rate was 100,000 off the mark.[8]"
It's an American song and a stab at a worldwide stat.
Aaargh - I've got that guitar riff in my head now.
(Though tbf there are far worse earworms.)
Do you need more cowbell?
You win today’s most obscure pop culture reference award!
I've just listened to it twice, two versions, and I can't hear the cowbell.
I’m looking forward to the replies to the legal threats this time.
How many ways can people come up with to say ‘go fuck yourselves, losers, this is your fault?’
There comes a point when a rebellion becomes too huge to squash, and it's impossible to regain authority afterwards. Teachers at badly-run schools know all about that. One would have thought that former Chief Whips knew it as well.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Still that false dilemma. If the health service is fucked, the economy is fucked. All that the lockdown delays have ever done is slightly delay the economic damage while making both the health and economic damage worse.
Yes, the first part of what you say is true. The balance the Govt have sought to strike throughout seems to be ensuring neither happens. The right path IMO.
It's a false economy. Every week with R running out of control requires several weeks of harder measures to bring cases back down to a level that the health system can cope with on an ongoing basis.
There is a conflict though between the rich left winger who tells the world how they are happy to pay more tax whilst guffawing “they are literally voting to make themselves poorer!” when the working class vote against more GDP-that-they-don’t-see-increasing immigration
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Still that false dilemma. If the health service is fucked, the economy is fucked. All that the lockdown delays have ever done is slightly delay the economic damage while making both the health and economic damage worse.
Yes, the first part of what you say is true. The balance the Govt have sought to strike throughout seems to be ensuring neither happens. The right path IMO.
It's a false economy. Every week with R running out of control requires several weeks of harder measures to bring cases back down to a level that the health system can cope with on an ongoing basis.
Indeed it is part of the equation that people who try and defend the late first lock down in March with "people wouldn't have stood for a longer lockdown" miss. An earlier lockdown would have meant a smaller peak and a quicker recovery.
Lockdown early and you lockdown for a short time. The later you lockdown the longer you have to lockdown for.
Given that this report mentions the possibility of mutation, and that case numbers were rising rather fast ahead of 8th Dec—this being the date on which the new variant was announced—, one might think that a more informed Johnson would have seen fit to impose tier 4 etc. immediately. Not only is it plausible that some of the spread would at least have been curbed, so that we might not have been 6 days in which there were 325,000 new infections (as there have been over the last 6 days). Also there'd have been more time for people to change their Xmas plans. Perhaps Johnson could then have had a less heavy heart when he made his announcements. It'll be clear maybe that I think Johnson brings his heavy heart upon himself.
Genuine question - why can't we use some of the unused spaces that lockdown has produced. For example, we have a large banqueting hall just down the road from me - enough room for at least 2 spaced classes, one at each end of the hall. On a smaller note, the pub over the road has a function room that can take ca. 20 people spaced out - enough for a 6th form class - and already has the AV in place.
I hope Raffensperger sticks around. He may well be a politician whose views on many things I would disagree with intensely for all I know, but at the very least he has been unwilling to equivocate in order to lend weight to Trump's delusions, and so ruin his personal integrity, when so many others have been more cowardly.
He's immediatly leapt on the "controversy" to start some good old voter suppression.
Just because trump is attacking him doesn't mean he isn't a grade A wanker.
In these dark times, people willing to be only Grade A Wankers are deserving of our respect.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Still that false dilemma. If the health service is fucked, the economy is fucked. All that the lockdown delays have ever done is slightly delay the economic damage while making both the health and economic damage worse.
Yes, the first part of what you say is true. The balance the Govt have sought to strike throughout seems to be ensuring neither happens. The right path IMO.
It's a false economy. Every week with R running out of control requires several weeks of harder measures to bring cases back down to a level that the health system can cope with on an ongoing basis.
Is that really true of Lockdown Maximus?
One problem is that Covid patients typically spend a long time in hospital. So it takes a long time to reduce the numbers hospitalised after a wave.
So, for lockdown 2, cases in England reduced by 40% from peak to trough, but hospitalizations only reduced by a little more than 10%, before increasing again with the Cockney covid wave.
I’m looking forward to the replies to the legal threats this time.
How many ways can people come up with to say ‘go fuck yourselves, losers, this is your fault?’
There comes a point when a rebellion becomes too huge to squash, and it's impossible to regain authority afterwards. Teachers at badly-run schools know all about that. One would have thought that former Chief Whips knew it as well.
Genuine question - why can't we use some of the unused spaces that lockdown has produced. For example, we have a large banqueting hall just down the road from me - enough room for at least 2 spaced classes, one at each end of the hall. On a smaller note, the pub over the road has a function room that can take ca. 20 people spaced out - enough for a 6th form class - and already has the AV in place.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Except they weren't invalid.
The British embassy in Madrid reiterated in a tweet on Saturday night that the green card was valid.
“This should not be happening, the Spanish authorities have reconfirmed again this evening that the green residency document will be valid for travel to return to Spain as stated in our travel advice,” it said.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
My guess is that PB is the ONLY political blog on the planet where you can encounter within a few postings, both Miley Cyrus belting out "Heart of Glass" and Tennessee Ernie Ford singing "Marching Through Georgia".
Which is a remarkable tribute to trans-Atlantic (and -Pacific) culture, American country music and PB.
If you want to start a new prediction thread then "predict how many fans are in attendance at Wembley on 18th June" is definitely a good one. Assuming it's even still on.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
Yup. U.K. and Ireland should have been like Australia and NZ by now.
Note that the French didn’t hesitate to close the border, when they thought there was a risk of virus coming the other way.
Especially as we are testing lots of people. It isnt like when Poland hit crazy positivity numbers, but it was because they were testing bugger all people.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
Also if worried about calls of "racist", loads of other countries have done this.
Given that this report mentions the possibility of mutation, and that case numbers were rising rather fast ahead of 8th Dec—this being the date on which the new variant was announced—, one might think that a more informed Johnson would have seen fit to impose tier 4 etc. immediately. Not only is it plausible that some of the spread would at least have been curbed, so that we might not have been 6 days in which there were 325,000 new infections (as there have been over the last 6 days). Also there'd have been more time for people to change their Xmas plans. Perhaps Johnson could then have had a less heavy heart when he made his announcements. It'll be clear maybe that I think Johnson brings his heavy heart upon himself.
Bottom line, his judgement simply isn’t very good. Because his only criterion is how it looks for him at the time.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
Its worse than that.
I cannot think of a single MP who disagrees with the current lack of restrictions.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
It was also something that PB was almost completely united on...
My guess is that the government wanted to make it clear that "the UK is open for business", hence the really stupid shit about high value business travellers not needing to worry about quarantine* and the like.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Still that false dilemma. If the health service is fucked, the economy is fucked. All that the lockdown delays have ever done is slightly delay the economic damage while making both the health and economic damage worse.
Yes, the first part of what you say is true. The balance the Govt have sought to strike throughout seems to be ensuring neither happens. The right path IMO.
It's a false economy. Every week with R running out of control requires several weeks of harder measures to bring cases back down to a level that the health system can cope with on an ongoing basis.
Is that really true of Lockdown Maximus?
Define Lockdown Maximus. The new strain happily doubles in a week even under tier 3, and it's to be seen whether tier 4½ (4 with some schools closed) will even bring it below 1 at all.
America - I'm not worried any more. I think the idiots in Congress are going to have to run as fast as possible to distance themselves from Trump after the tape has been released. And they don't know what else is out there...
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Tories showed they don't give a crap about poor children when they would not fund school meals in holidays whilst showering billions to their chums in dodgy contracts. They will see the toffs are all right though.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
I understand the airport staff were not aware of the rules and made a mistake
Is anyone else having issues with blockquotes this evening?
I seem to get double quotes evey time.
(Might be that last bottle of red... roll on dry January. Oh...)
Some PBers invariably produce double quotes. I do not know if @rcs1000 can look at the logs and see if they share a user agent in common, let alone what could be done if they do.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
I'd be interested to know which countries don't currently require a negative covid test for entrance by plane. Is it just the UK? Seems such a no brainer.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
I understand the airport staff were not aware of the rules and made a mistake
Reading the article, it was the Airlines getting it wrong. I do have some sympathy as they only had a few days to get up to speed.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
It was also something that PB was almost completely united on...
My guess is that the government wanted to make it clear that "the UK is open for business", hence the really stupid shit about high value business travellers not needing to worry about quarantine* and the like.
* Remember that? Utter madness.
Partly.
But I suspect they're terrified of upsetting the holiday obsessives as well.
Plus the concept of being unable to get on a plane, going anywhere at anytime, seems anathema to UK politicians and media (see Kay Burley's trip to South Africa) generally.
Genuine question - why can't we use some of the unused spaces that lockdown has produced. For example, we have a large banqueting hall just down the road from me - enough room for at least 2 spaced classes, one at each end of the hall. On a smaller note, the pub over the road has a function room that can take ca. 20 people spaced out - enough for a 6th form class - and already has the AV in place.
Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?
In periods of cold calculation, I try to see a path back for SLab but it's hard. All the stuff that's blighted them for years is still there and in spades: lack of talent, inconsistency, enthusiastic collaboration with the Tories in 2014, broken promises.
One small bellwether is the ex MP for my constituency 2017-19, Paul Sweeney. He's standing as a list candidate for Glasgow in the May election (not sure how high on that list he is for SLab, that will have some bearing) . Obviously personal rep has a lot less meaning in list elections but if he's elected it might be a sign of tiny shoots of recovery for SLab. Personally I find him a self-publicising, ambitious wee snot, but he's not stupid and these characteristics often seem to work for aspiring pols of all parties.
He was involved in the stushie about the SCon MP Ross Thomson being accused of assault which now appears to be without foundation; that may depress any tactical voting by Cons if they're paying attention.
By “involved in” do you mean “made highly emotive allegations about a political opponent shortly before an election despite there being a remarkable lack of evidence?”
Behaviour like that should debar anyone from public life
Good old Toffs they always stick up for their wrong un's
Please justify Sweeney’s actions. I’m curious.
Well from what was alleged in the press he was assaulted by a drunken Tory MP, other than that it has all been kept very quiet, Tories never publish their internal whitewash enquiries.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
It was also something that PB was almost completely united on...
My guess is that the government wanted to make it clear that "the UK is open for business", hence the really stupid shit about high value business travellers not needing to worry about quarantine* and the like.
* Remember that? Utter madness.
Partly.
But I suspect they're terrified of upsetting the holiday obsessives as well.
Plus the concept of being unable to get on a plane, going anywhere at anytime, seems anathema to UK politicians and media (see Kay Burley's trip to South Africa) generally.
DM and Express - newspaper advertising for hols, airlines etc.?
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
I understand the airport staff were not aware of the rules and made a mistake
Reading the article, it was the Airlines getting it wrong. I do have some sympathy as they only had a few days to get up to speed.
Hey I was dealing with Lloyd's on Brexit stuff and they couldn't explain their own rules - so I get it :-)
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
It was also something that PB was almost completely united on...
My guess is that the government wanted to make it clear that "the UK is open for business", hence the really stupid shit about high value business travellers not needing to worry about quarantine* and the like.
* Remember that? Utter madness.
Partly.
But I suspect they're terrified of upsetting the holiday obsessives as well.
Plus the concept of being unable to get on a plane, going anywhere at anytime, seems anathema to UK politicians and media (see Kay Burley's trip to South Africa) generally.
The holiday industry is also one of very few that still spend a lot of money on traditional print media advertising.
Won't find out till tomorrow (statement to Pmt IIRC - which is at least rather more democratic than leaking to the DM etc.).
But physically, is there much more that can be done, other than extending the school holidays and sticking a few of the islands in tier 4? Everything non-essential should already be shut, travel is already banned, what more scope is there for tightening?
Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?
In periods of cold calculation, I try to see a path back for SLab but it's hard. All the stuff that's blighted them for years is still there and in spades: lack of talent, inconsistency, enthusiastic collaboration with the Tories in 2014, broken promises.
One small bellwether is the ex MP for my constituency 2017-19, Paul Sweeney. He's standing as a list candidate for Glasgow in the May election (not sure how high on that list he is for SLab, that will have some bearing) . Obviously personal rep has a lot less meaning in list elections but if he's elected it might be a sign of tiny shoots of recovery for SLab. Personally I find him a self-publicising, ambitious wee snot, but he's not stupid and these characteristics often seem to work for aspiring pols of all parties.
He was involved in the stushie about the SCon MP Ross Thomson being accused of assault which now appears to be without foundation; that may depress any tactical voting by Cons if they're paying attention.
By “involved in” do you mean “made highly emotive allegations about a political opponent shortly before an election despite there being a remarkable lack of evidence?”
Behaviour like that should debar anyone from public life
Good old Toffs they always stick up for their wrong un's
Please justify Sweeney’s actions. I’m curious.
Well from what was alleged in the press he was assaulted by a drunken Tory MP, other than that it has all been kept very quiet, Tories never publish their internal whitewash enquiries.
In any case, it is not a good idea to as good as accuse one side of lying, as the case is still active, as I pointed out earlier.
Bet she's regretting leaving the level 4 lockdown until Boxing Day when the findings about the new strain came in the weekend before. Cases in Scotland on a steep upward trajectory as well the last few days.
By the way, have the signatories of The Great Barrington Declaration updated their views yet?
I very much doubt they have updated their conclusions, but they've probably had to rewrite the faulty chain of reasoning which got them to that conclusion several times now.
It's the mark of a flexible mind: the agility to come to the same conclusion through many and varied means, as each of the previous is demolished by reality.
Won't find out till tomorrow (statement to Pmt IIRC - which is at least rather more democratic than leaking to the DM etc.).
But physically, is there much more that can be done, other than extending the school holidays and sticking a few of the islands in tier 4? Everything non-essential should already be shut, travel is already banned, what more scope is there for tightening?
Universities. And trying to frighten people into behaving properly, and shops to enforce it. Beyond that, not much.
The tragedy of all of this is that it is the poorest children in society who will suffer the most permanent damage from the lockdowns in schools. What is scary is that there does not seem to be any sort of co-ordinated plan and effort to try and recoup at least some of this loss once we come out of Covid
Which goes to show the lower orders should stop breeding until they are able to support their kids.
Time to geld the plebs, for the greater good.
I hope you are jesting....
I'm a fiscal conservative, we need to reduce government spending, so let us start with that.
I mean I don't ask the working class to help pay for my new car.
You do if your new car is electric. Single parents all over Coventry cannot afford a Christmas goose after they've paid for poshos to drive Teslas.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
There is a news form of residency card challenge. TIE introduced for those who didn’t have their residency, Spain made it clear if you have a green residency certificate that was fine as long as it was legible. Why do people insist on calling Brits abroad expats? We’re immigrants, I don’t hear about expat Moroccans working in the fields. Or are the British even against their own immigration. The best explanation given the info available is that it was a mistake by the UK staff.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
The idiots should not be travelling about anyway, good enough for them.
Won't find out till tomorrow (statement to Pmt IIRC - which is at least rather more democratic than leaking to the DM etc.).
But physically, is there much more that can be done, other than extending the school holidays and sticking a few of the islands in tier 4? Everything non-essential should already be shut, travel is already banned, what more scope is there for tightening?
Universities. And trying to frighten people into behaving properly, and shops to enforce it. Beyond that, not much.
Reopen universities but add vaccination to freshers fayres. HMG should give serious consideration to ripping up its age-based priority list and instead send the needles to where people gather and the virus spreads.
Won't find out till tomorrow (statement to Pmt IIRC - which is at least rather more democratic than leaking to the DM etc.).
But physically, is there much more that can be done, other than extending the school holidays and sticking a few of the islands in tier 4? Everything non-essential should already be shut, travel is already banned, what more scope is there for tightening?
Universities. And trying to frighten people into behaving properly, and shops to enforce it. Beyond that, not much.
There's probably scope for closing more businesses where workers cannot work from home. Horribly painful for those concerned, but it would clearly reduce inter-household contact.
Curfews are probably ineffective except that they send a very strong message. I hate the idea but it might be in the arsenal of measures. Similarly travel restrictions between regions.
I personally am skeptical of the value of masks outdoors, but as a desperate measure they might make that mandatory.
Total public transport shutdown, except for hospital workers or the like?
Ugh, these are horrible options. But something has to get R down. I am at least hopeful that some of the failure of tier 4 was due to Christmas, so that we've yet to see "proper" tier 4 results.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
There is a news form of residency card challenge. TIE introduced for those who didn’t have their residency, Spain made it clear if you have a green residency certificate that was fine as long as it was legible. Why do people insist on calling Brits abroad expats? We’re immigrants, I don’t hear about expat Moroccans working in the fields. Or are the British even against their own immigration. The best explanation given the info available is that it was a mistake by the UK staff.
Imagine the fuss if EU citizens resident in the UK had been denied boarding flights to the UK?
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
There is a news form of residency card challenge. TIE introduced for those who didn’t have their residency, Spain made it clear if you have a green residency certificate that was fine as long as it was legible. Why do people insist on calling Brits abroad expats? We’re immigrants, I don’t hear about expat Moroccans working in the fields. Or are the British even against their own immigration. The best explanation given the info available is that it was a mistake by the UK staff.
Henning Wehn nailed all this. You’re an immigrant if you are going somewhere better. If it’s a lot better then you’re a economic migrant. If it’s hugely better then you’re a refugee or asylum seeker. If you are coming from somewhere better, you’re an expat. If it’s a lot better, you’re a relief worker.
There is a massive open goal about "keeping our borders safe" that Keir could bury the ball into the back of the net of.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
It's completely mental how no opposition party has taken this up. I don't understand the political class attitude to border controls during a pandemic.
It was also something that PB was almost completely united on...
My guess is that the government wanted to make it clear that "the UK is open for business", hence the really stupid shit about high value business travellers not needing to worry about quarantine* and the like.
* Remember that? Utter madness.
I think in part it is a slavish adherence to the influenza "pandemic plan" and part that MPs are part of a social class for whom air travel is an 'essential' part of life.
In DC under the Big Top (aka Capitol Dome) the US House of Representatives is voting in groups, which I think is to help maintain social distancing. (Most specially from mask-adverse GOP wingnuts).
Voting is being done alphabetically, hey have now finished "Group 3" which has gotten them into the Ks.
Have no clue what the tally is right now. Real question is, how many Democrats will NOT vote for Nancy Pelosi?
And NOTE there is important distinction whether they vote for another person (not GOPer Kevin McCarthy) OR simple record themselves a present.
Bet she's regretting leaving the level 4 lockdown until Boxing Day when the findings about the new strain came in the weekend before. Cases in Scotland on a steep upward trajectory as well the last few days.
Do you foresee a natural bouncing back for Labour, if only due to SNP fatigue (and not counting on black swans like independence followed by SNP fragmentation or suchlike)?
In periods of cold calculation, I try to see a path back for SLab but it's hard. All the stuff that's blighted them for years is still there and in spades: lack of talent, inconsistency, enthusiastic collaboration with the Tories in 2014, broken promises.
One small bellwether is the ex MP for my constituency 2017-19, Paul Sweeney. He's standing as a list candidate for Glasgow in the May election (not sure how high on that list he is for SLab, that will have some bearing) . Obviously personal rep has a lot less meaning in list elections but if he's elected it might be a sign of tiny shoots of recovery for SLab. Personally I find him a self-publicising, ambitious wee snot, but he's not stupid and these characteristics often seem to work for aspiring pols of all parties.
He was involved in the stushie about the SCon MP Ross Thomson being accused of assault which now appears to be without foundation; that may depress any tactical voting by Cons if they're paying attention.
By “involved in” do you mean “made highly emotive allegations about a political opponent shortly before an election despite there being a remarkable lack of evidence?”
Behaviour like that should debar anyone from public life
Good old Toffs they always stick up for their wrong un's
Please justify Sweeney’s actions. I’m curious.
Well from what was alleged in the press he was assaulted by a drunken Tory MP, other than that it has all been kept very quiet, Tories never publish their internal whitewash enquiries.
In any case, it is not a good idea to as good as accuse one side of lying, as the case is still active, as I pointed out earlier.
Agree, Charles was very adamant that the Tory is always right as you would expect from a super Toff. Personally I do not care a jot , a pair of ne'er do wells in my mind , Labour or Tory they are wasters.
Yes, I've been among those who up to now have said that everyone I know has been following the rules. I know a lot of exceptions over Christmas of the kind she describes and even some surprise that I was really spending it on my own. Most of them seem keen to be compliant again now, but I do expect trouble in the next week's figures.
I spent Xmas with my daughter. Sons were with their father.
NY's Eve I spent alone. The disadvantage of living halfway up a mountainside is that when the ice comes it is pretty much impossible to make it here so Daughter had to stay at the home of her chef who she sees every day anyway. Was she breaking the rules? Yes - but what was the alternative? Sleeping in her car in sub-zero temperatures? Risking a dangerous accident trying to get home?
I really hope the weather does not get worse as we really will be trapped here if that happens.
Anyway I expect to be shielding for a good few months now. In fact, I feel quite scared, to be honest. I have little confidence in the government re the vaccination programme, based on past performance. But it would be nice if they could surprise on the upside for once.
Similar to England on a population basis is it not.
Cases is significantly worse - although we have started to catch up. Deaths is almost the same; marginally better. It had looked as if the US death rate would overhaul ours, but we are now starting to chalk up proportionately more.
Won't find out till tomorrow (statement to Pmt IIRC - which is at least rather more democratic than leaking to the DM etc.).
But physically, is there much more that can be done, other than extending the school holidays and sticking a few of the islands in tier 4? Everything non-essential should already be shut, travel is already banned, what more scope is there for tightening?
we here daily of nutjobs going on holidays or arriving in planes.
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I sincerely hope this post won't age badly but there are numerous reasons to be optimistic about the UK rollout of vaccinations:
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
I hope you're right Ben and fair play for being prepared to take a punt. I note you're also not normally supportive of the Tories.
Won't find out till tomorrow (statement to Pmt IIRC - which is at least rather more democratic than leaking to the DM etc.).
But physically, is there much more that can be done, other than extending the school holidays and sticking a few of the islands in tier 4? Everything non-essential should already be shut, travel is already banned, what more scope is there for tightening?
Universities. And trying to frighten people into behaving properly, and shops to enforce it. Beyond that, not much.
There's probably scope for closing more businesses where workers cannot work from home. Horribly painful for those concerned, but it would clearly reduce inter-household contact.
Curfews are probably ineffective except that they send a very strong message. I hate the idea but it might be in the arsenal of measures. Similarly travel restrictions between regions.
I personally am skeptical of the value of masks outdoors, but as a desperate measure they might make that mandatory.
Total public transport shutdown, except for hospital workers or the like?
Ugh, these are horrible options. But something has to get R down. I am at least hopeful that some of the failure of tier 4 was due to Christmas, so that we've yet to see "proper" tier 4 results.
--AS
Curfews seem pointless given that actually folk outside is the least of our problems at the moment and it's folk gathering inside. And besides it's pitch black (and below freezing at the moment) from basically 4pm ish to 8am ish. But, I dunno, maybe it's justification to get Tesco and Asda to shut a couple of hours earlier, or something. As you say though, maybe that'd just be about the severity of message it sends as much as anything.
Universities, thought they weren't doing much in-person teaching anyway but maybe telling folk not to bother travelling back to campus if they haven't already done so, or something.
About the only thing I can think of is closing takeaways maybe (?), it probably still involves a certain amount of mixing of different folk whilst they wait, and maybe as you say finding those few businesses that are still open that really aren't 100% essential even if working from home isn't possible.
To be honest I'm not expecting that much from tomorrow's announcement other than probably a clear steer that schools are definitely not reopening physically until at least Feb and probably even beyond that, and also possibly that the "once a day outside for exercise only, within 5 miles" rule is back, but I can't see much more than that.
Serious question: will anyone other than those who hate Boris already give a shit about what Cummings has to say about him? I know I don't give a shit about Cummings, period.
I will. IF this story is true, then I would agree, there are serious questions for Sunak and the PM to answer. Blaming the advisers for poor decisions is standard fare. Since Cummings left, the PR has improved. However, the decision making hasn't. On/off Christmas and schools for two.
In their defence (I know, I know) they have been scrambling re: the new variant. Christmas was an acceptable risk with the original coronavirus, but the calculation changed with nv. Similarly the data on school transmission is patchy.
I think they have been willing to take risks because their hearts are opposed to the government shutting normal life down, but when the data is overwhelming they act belatedly. I think that is better than a government whose instinct is to restrict liberty
Agree. As Boris said today (CANNOT BELIEVE I'M SAYING THIS) there were many experts who advised complete lockdown from March to date.
Plenty on here also.
The permanent lockdown brigade tend to have secure incomes - whether pensions, or public sector funded.
Everyone else I know understands that it is a really, really difficult balance between BAU health, liberty, the economy and public health.
No-one wants unnecessary lockdown. However not once in this pandemic, to my knowledge, has the problem been people locking down too early. Again and again people have locked down too late, causing unnecessary death and damage.
This was Marr's gotcha question this morning to Boris.
There is no easy answer as yes not locking down causes death but tragic as each of these is, this has to be seen within the calculus of running society.
Still that false dilemma. If the health service is fucked, the economy is fucked. All that the lockdown delays have ever done is slightly delay the economic damage while making both the health and economic damage worse.
Yes, the first part of what you say is true. The balance the Govt have sought to strike throughout seems to be ensuring neither happens. The right path IMO.
It's a false economy. Every week with R running out of control requires several weeks of harder measures to bring cases back down to a level that the health system can cope with on an ongoing basis.
Is that really true of Lockdown Maximus?
Define Lockdown Maximus. The new strain happily doubles in a week even under tier 3, and it's to be seen whether tier 4½ (4 with some schools closed) will even bring it below 1 at all.
I was thinking of a China or Australia style lockdown, where only one person from a household is allowed to leave the house, and then only on their designated shopping day. Only those in essential jobs are allowed to work. (In this scenario maybe prioritise vaccines for this group rather than oldies.)
Essentially, no-one is leaving the house for seven weeks lockdowns.
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
Unsurprising, retaliation is sure to happen.
Spain is - generally - keen on UK expats, as they bring money into the economy. The Spanish and British governments also signed an agreement to keep reciprocal healthcare agreements post-Brexit.
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
There is a news form of residency card challenge. TIE introduced for those who didn’t have their residency, Spain made it clear if you have a green residency certificate that was fine as long as it was legible. Why do people insist on calling Brits abroad expats? We’re immigrants, I don’t hear about expat Moroccans working in the fields. Or are the British even against their own immigration. The best explanation given the info available is that it was a mistake by the UK staff.
Henning Wehn nailed all this. You’re an immigrant if you are going somewhere better. If it’s a lot better then you’re a economic migrant. If it’s hugely better then you’re a refugee or asylum seeker. If you are coming from somewhere better, you’re an expat. If it’s a lot better, you’re a relief worker.
An expat posts on politicalbetting, an immigrant would be on lasapuestaspoliticas.
Similar to England on a population basis is it not.
The US averages about 7,500 deaths on a normal day. If they're now at 12,500+, that would be staggering, a 70+% increase in the average daily death rate.
Comments
Just because trump is attacking him doesn't mean he isn't a grade A wanker.
I was in the car a few months ago, didn't hear the DJ telling us what the song was, but I thought this was a brilliant cover of Heart of Glass.
When they announced it was Miley Cyrus a part of my brain died and dribbled out of my ears.
Honestly it is a good version, some of you might even like the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbdRLyixJpc
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9108199/British-expats-flying-home-Spain-stopped-boarding-BA-flight-Heathrow-Madrid.html
A group of British expats living in Spain were stopped from boarding a flight to Madrid after airline staff informed them their residency papers were no longer valid following Brexit.
Nine passengers were prevented from boarding the Iberia/BA flight from London Heathrow to Madrid on Saturday night.
Staff reportedly blocked them from boarding and told them their pre-Brexit ID documents had become invalid.
NYTimes
Post-xmas surge warnings.
Fog on the Tyne - now there's a cowbell.
Teachers at badly-run schools know all about that.
One would have thought that former Chief Whips knew it as well.
There is a conflict though between the rich left winger who tells the world how they are happy to pay more tax whilst guffawing “they are literally voting to make themselves poorer!” when the working class vote against more GDP-that-they-don’t-see-increasing immigration
Lockdown early and you lockdown for a short time. The later you lockdown the longer you have to lockdown for.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-preparing-for-a-challenging-winter-202021-7-july-2020
Starmer drew this to attention at PMQs on 15 July. On Marr today, it become apparent that Johnson has never read it.
Given that this report mentions the possibility of mutation, and that case numbers were rising rather fast ahead of 8th Dec—this being the date on which the new variant was announced—, one might think that a more informed Johnson would have seen fit to impose tier 4 etc. immediately. Not only is it plausible that some of the spread would at least have been curbed, so that we might not have been 6 days in which there were 325,000 new infections (as there have been over the last 6 days). Also there'd have been more time for people to change their Xmas plans. Perhaps Johnson could then have had a less heavy heart when he made his announcements.
It'll be clear maybe that I think Johnson brings his heavy heart upon himself.
It is both good policy from a public health point of view and plays to exactly the kind of voter Labour needs to win back.
But he won't. Because reasons.
https://twitter.com/NeilDotObrien/status/1345786070936465408
So, for lockdown 2, cases in England reduced by 40% from peak to trough, but hospitalizations only reduced by a little more than 10%, before increasing again with the Cockney covid wave.
The British embassy in Madrid reiterated in a tweet on Saturday night that the green card was valid.
“This should not be happening, the Spanish authorities have reconfirmed again this evening that the green residency document will be valid for travel to return to Spain as stated in our travel advice,” it said.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/03/britons-living-in-spain-barred-from-madrid-flight-in-post-brexit-travel-row
Which is a remarkable tribute to trans-Atlantic (and -Pacific) culture, American country music and PB.
Scotland is getting full fat lockdown
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345802429036699653?s=19
Note that the French didn’t hesitate to close the border, when they thought there was a risk of virus coming the other way.
https://twitter.com/gbdeclaration/status/1345486571198406658?s=19
I cannot think of a single MP who disagrees with the current lack of restrictions.
My guess is that the government wanted to make it clear that "the UK is open for business", hence the really stupid shit about high value business travellers not needing to worry about quarantine* and the like.
* Remember that? Utter madness.
I'm confused - now Labour want to leave schools open?
So, I'm going to go for "not retaliation".
However, I suspect there is more to this story. Were expats required to update their residency documentation? Did these people fail to fill out the paperwork in advance? There may be more to this story.
Seems such a no brainer.
But I suspect they're terrified of upsetting the holiday obsessives as well.
Plus the concept of being unable to get on a plane, going anywhere at anytime, seems anathema to UK politicians and media (see Kay Burley's trip to South Africa) generally.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/former-labour-mp-lodges-appeal-23153724
It's the mark of a flexible mind: the agility to come to the same conclusion through many and varied means, as each of the previous is demolished by reality.
--AS
Note that 427 Representatives answered initial quorum call, plus one guy who arrived later = 220 Dems & 208 Reps
Curfews are probably ineffective except that they send a very strong message. I hate the idea but it might be in the arsenal of measures. Similarly travel restrictions between regions.
I personally am skeptical of the value of masks outdoors, but as a desperate measure they might make that mandatory.
Total public transport shutdown, except for hospital workers or the like?
Ugh, these are horrible options. But something has to get R down. I am at least hopeful that some of the failure of tier 4 was due to Christmas, so that we've yet to see "proper" tier 4 results.
--AS
Voting is being done alphabetically, hey have now finished "Group 3" which has gotten them into the Ks.
Have no clue what the tally is right now. Real question is, how many Democrats will NOT vote for Nancy Pelosi?
And NOTE there is important distinction whether they vote for another person (not GOPer Kevin McCarthy) OR simple record themselves a present.
NY's Eve I spent alone. The disadvantage of living halfway up a mountainside is that when the ice comes it is pretty much impossible to make it here so Daughter had to stay at the home of her chef who she sees every day anyway. Was she breaking the rules? Yes - but what was the alternative? Sleeping in her car in sub-zero temperatures? Risking a dangerous accident trying to get home?
I really hope the weather does not get worse as we really will be trapped here if that happens.
Anyway I expect to be shielding for a good few months now. In fact, I feel quite scared, to be honest. I have little confidence in the government re the vaccination programme, based on past performance. But it would be nice if they could surprise on the upside for once.
Cases 40% worse Malc.
Nats & Maths, eh?
1. Despite a rocky start the UK has delivered the best testing performance of any major country. I expect many of the factors in that success will play in the vaccination rollout too.
2. The UK goverment has secured good commitments on the delivery of early approved vaccines. Credit to HMG on this point.
3. The MHRA has worked hard to approve safe vaccines as early as possible.
4. Polls show UK is amongst the countries who population is most likely to take the vaccine.
5. Our centralised health system lends itself to a widescale roll-out.
6. One of the early vaccines was developed in the UK.
7. The roll-out is not something that requires government leadership or decisions. I don't underestimate this government's ability to screw up major decisions (see, well everything else assocoted with covid tbf) but the opportunities for such intervention in the vaccine roll-out is limited.
Universities, thought they weren't doing much in-person teaching anyway but maybe telling folk not to bother travelling back to campus if they haven't already done so, or something.
About the only thing I can think of is closing takeaways maybe (?), it probably still involves a certain amount of mixing of different folk whilst they wait, and maybe as you say finding those few businesses that are still open that really aren't 100% essential even if working from home isn't possible.
To be honest I'm not expecting that much from tomorrow's announcement other than probably a clear steer that schools are definitely not reopening physically until at least Feb and probably even beyond that, and also possibly that the "once a day outside for exercise only, within 5 miles" rule is back, but I can't see much more than that.
Probably I'll be proven horribly wrong though.
Essentially, no-one is leaving the house for seven weeks lockdowns.