Just a thought - aren't we doing this vaccine thing wrong? Shouldn't we be vaccinating the children first as they seem to be the carriers and, assuming the vaccine stops you becoming a carrier, wouldn't that slow the rate of transmission and the number of cases?
Vaccinating those who are or should be already shielding isn't going to have a strong impact on the case numbers, is it, as those who are shielding shouldn't be in contact with others and therefore shouldn't be as susceptible to the vaccine?
Vaccinating children won't have an immediate big effect on the higher risk people dying as they will be catching it from various sources not merely children, whereas vaccinating the most at risk means whilst more people might be catching it from children, they are from the groups less likely to die?
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Well, I don't know, but all I'm doing is reflecting back to you your arguments for the past several months musing about reality versus expectations.
Well indeed and expectations have been set via Covid19 that disruptions are part of every day life have they not?
If Brexit causes disruption, and I expect it would even in normal circumstances, would anyone even notice the difference right now?
Beware the straw that breaks the camel's back, or the point at which a change in quantity becomes a change in quality.
People might also make a distinction between disruption arising from government policy and disruption arising from a global pandemic.
They might, or they might not.
But if there's going to be disruption either way then why not get it all over and done with now? Why postpone it until we've all been vaccinated and are trying to get back to normal and then go through the disruption another time?
I'm not making a case for delay. I'm just arguing how a no deal Brexit now won't necessarily be something you can sneak through without anyone noticing.
Choosing the optimal time for a no deal Brexit is a fool's errand - but there is always a risk that combining disasters makes the outcome a lot worse than the sum of their parts.
The effects of disruption could combine multiplicatively, rather than linearly. You seem to be assuming they will combine in the same way as concurrent jail sentences.
I might suggest that is a trifle brave.
Perhaps, but I feel brave.
Yes I expect the disruption to be concurrent. If someone's work is temporarily disrupted - but they're already furloughed - will they even notice?
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine
I don't think going Franco or sending the army into Scotland is the CCHQ position.
I don't think comparing Scotland with the Catalans is the CCHQ position.
Tories aren't a dictatorship and are entitled to divert from the party line. But you uniquely spout things that are not the Tory position - like Franco style attacks on democracy - as if they are the Tory position.
The official government line is no indyref2 for a generation, exactly my position.
In terms of deploying riot police or the military I have only said that would have to be considered if nationalists turned violent with rioting etc in response to a government refusal to grant such a legal indyref2, that is just a statement of the obvious, in such circumstances there would be no alternative.
These are athletes who were at peak fitness when this virus struck, but I'm sure the Covid deniers will be out in force moaning about lockdown and tiers.
Newcastle stars Jamaal Lascelles and Allan Saint-Maximin are suffering from long Covid and struggling to walk and have sores and mouth ulcers as Steve Bruce fears for their long-term health
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
My favourite canvassing anecdote was from one of my local election defences when three of us gathered at the end of a long road one April evening to parcel out the canvass cards.
The very first house on the righthand side of the road had a big Tory poster in the middle of the window, so my two colleagues quickly volunteered me take that side, and went off to do the first two houses on the other side. Normally, as you say, I'd skip such a house, but as it was the first one, and you never know whether there's a teenage son or somesuch who might vote differently, I thought, why not?
So the guy opens his door, and I say "I do see that you have a Conservative poster up, but as your current councillor I thought I'd call to say hello and see if anyone wanted to raise any local issues?". "Don't worry about the poster", says the guy. "My neighbour across the road works for the council and I know he votes Labour, so I only put the poster there to wind him up". So, says I, "as we normally beat the Tories here, how about you put one of ours up instead, which will really wind him up?" "Done", says the guy, and he takes the Tory poster down and fixes the orange diamond in its place straight away.
I'm walking back down to the road before my colleagues on the other side have even finished with their houses, and when they turn round they can't believe their eyes. I just smile and continue to the next house. I dined out on that lucky canvass for years, which happened exactly as I just told it, no exaggeration.
Be even funnier if, before telling the whole truth, you played it up a bit. "Yeah, no big thing, I just set out the basic principles of liberalism vs conservatism, talked up our local record, and bish bash bosh, he's in the palm of my hands. Simple'.
I did keep everyone in the dark for quite a while, and let them wonder.
Tbf I was pretty good at getting our posters up; in one local election I managed to get four of the houses of the ten people who had signed my Tory opponent's nomination papers to put a LibDem poster up, which I reckon must be a record for any candidate anywhere. He had made the mistake of badgering his mates for signatures, rather than party members, and it turned out few of them really liked him.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
My statement would be a mild response in many parts of Essex to the SNP
TBH many people I know speak quite highly of Ms Sturgeon.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
Big G why don't you just worry about your own views and your own posts rather than acting as some curtain twitching tell tale on others.
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.
But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....
Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.
Don;t you understand how this works?
Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country. I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out. Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious. Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
Do you have a breaking point? do you have a point at which you would say sorry we have to get on with out lives now? Or are you happy with the new normal for ever?
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.
But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....
Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.
Don;t you understand how this works?
Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country. I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out. Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious. Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
Do you have a breaking point? do you have a point at which you would say sorry we have to get on with out lives now? Or are you happy with the new normal for ever?
Once I've got the vaccine pal, told you already - possibly sooner. Not at the moment though. The 'new normal' is a temporary phase; the world didn't end after the plague of Justinian or the 1918 flu. We'll be back to normal in a few years - the biggest danger to the long term of the UK right now is a shambolic Brexit implementation, not Covid.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine.
Do not forget CCHQ now under Boris is the body that removed party grandees such as Soames and Grieve and Gauke and Stewart from even being able to stand again as Tory candidates for being insufficiently committed to the Boris party line
Your tone and language is inflammatory and destructive
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.
But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....
Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.
Don;t you understand how this works?
Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country. I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out. Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious. Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
Do you have a breaking point? do you have a point at which you would say sorry we have to get on with out lives now? Or are you happy with the new normal for ever?
Once I've got the vaccine pal, told you already - possibly sooner. Not at the moment though.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
Need to put everyone on Tier 4+ now - even Cornwall!
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine
I don't think going Franco or sending the army into Scotland is the CCHQ position.
I don't think comparing Scotland with the Catalans is the CCHQ position.
Tories aren't a dictatorship and are entitled to divert from the party line. But you uniquely spout things that are not the Tory position - like Franco style attacks on democracy - as if they are the Tory position.
The official government line is no indyref2 for a generation, exactly my position.
In terms of deploying riot police or the military I have only said that would have to be considered if nationalists turned violent with rioting etc in response to a government refusal to grant such a legal indyref2, that is just a statement of the obvious, in such circumstances there would be no alternative.
If you just said no for a generation people wouldn't object.
You go further with talk of sending the army in to squash a referendum like the Spanish did with the Catalans or the Chinese did with Hong Kong.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
Well, 'mildly plead with Nationalists with a wet blanket' does not have quite the same ring to it!
It doesn't quite have the same dramatic effect, as does rolling in the tanks.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
Make the most of it - Boris will change you to Tier 4 soon
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
My favourite canvassing anecdote was from one of my local election defences when three of us gathered at the end of a long road one April evening to parcel out the canvass cards.
The very first house on the righthand side of the road had a big Tory poster in the middle of the window, so my two colleagues quickly volunteered me take that side, and went off to do the first two houses on the other side. Normally, as you say, I'd skip such a house, but as it was the first one, and you never know whether there's a teenage son or somesuch who might vote differently, I thought, why not?
So the guy opens his door, and I say "I do see that you have a Conservative poster up, but as your current councillor I thought I'd call to say hello and see if anyone wanted to raise any local issues?". "Don't worry about the poster", says the guy. "My neighbour across the road works for the council and I know he votes Labour, so I only put the poster there to wind him up". So, says I, "as we normally beat the Tories here, how about you put one of ours up instead, which will really wind him up?" "Done", says the guy, and he takes the Tory poster down and fixes the orange diamond in its place straight away.
I'm walking back down to the road before my colleagues on the other side have even finished with their houses, and when they turn round they can't believe their eyes. I just smile and continue to the next house. I dined out on that lucky canvass for years, which happened exactly as I just told it, no exaggeration.
No bar chart needed?
I was once delivering stuff (not political) to people's houses during an election. It was a very Labour/Lib Dem area, the local MP was under threat due to the Iraq war and tuition fees. I was going through one of the nicer parts of the neighbourhood and was surprised to see nothing for the Tories. I knew then that they weren't going to poll well. I then got to one house in the middle of the street that had a huge Conservative placard in their front lawn. Making a statement I thought, they'll get at least one vote anyway. I knocked on the door and a middle aged blonde lady in a dressing gown answered. She didn't seem like the type to engage in conversation so I quickly moved on. Go in through the gate next door and there is a load of Labour material up. I knock on the door and it turns out to be the home of my local MP. I always wonder what sort of relationship he had with his neighbours.
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.
But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....
Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.
Don;t you understand how this works?
Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country. I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out. Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious. Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
Do you have a breaking point? do you have a point at which you would say sorry we have to get on with out lives now? Or are you happy with the new normal for ever?
Once I've got the vaccine pal, told you already - possibly sooner. Not at the moment though.
OK so if there were lockdowns after most people were vaccinated. OK.
So when there are lockdowns after most people are vaccinated for covid 19, as I reckon there will be, we can expect you to be opposed to them
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine
I don't think going Franco or sending the army into Scotland is the CCHQ position.
I don't think comparing Scotland with the Catalans is the CCHQ position.
Tories aren't a dictatorship and are entitled to divert from the party line. But you uniquely spout things that are not the Tory position - like Franco style attacks on democracy - as if they are the Tory position.
The official government line is no indyref2 for a generation, exactly my position.
In terms of deploying riot police or the military I have only said that would have to be considered if nationalists turned violent with rioting etc in response to a government refusal to grant such a legal indyref2, that is just a statement of the obvious, in such circumstances there would be no alternative.
It's no only for as long as the present lot are in No10. Beyond that, they have eff all say in the matter.
In terms of your authoritarian fantasies, I'd say you need to take a chill pill.
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.
But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....
Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.
Don;t you understand how this works?
Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country. I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out. Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious. Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
I don't think that, ATM anyway, there's much intention to involve pharmacies, although it would be a good idea once we've got something which can be stored at a sensible temperature. And if we do it'll be all those who wish to participate, I hope.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
Really? I was some years back on a holiday in Kent - inter aliis looked at a NT cottage in the Werald, stayed overnight in Maidstone and drove to Chatham for the nautical archaeology and Rochester Castle. I was struck by the disparities in wealth and income as we went throiugh it - Jessica's Pony's field alternating with grim proletarian pockets.
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine.
Do not forget CCHQ now under Boris is the body that removed party grandees such as Soames and Grieve and Gauke and Stewart from even being able to stand again as Tory candidates for being insufficiently committed to the Boris party line
Hey, I used to be a communist, and even we were more tolerant of each other than that. No two human beings agree about everything, and if one tries to insist they walk away, the pesky sods.
These are athletes who were at peak fitness when this virus struck, but I'm sure the Covid deniers will be out in force moaning about lockdown and tiers.
Newcastle stars Jamaal Lascelles and Allan Saint-Maximin are suffering from long Covid and struggling to walk and have sores and mouth ulcers as Steve Bruce fears for their long-term health
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
None of you writers seem to be following the rules?
I'v probably got more patience than most. Once had to wait 4 years for Paddy Power to pay out on a bet that Berlusconi wouldn't run for a particular party in the 'next election'... When the next election rolled round I had to message them to settle the bet, as it seems they'd forgotten about it.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
Big G why don't you just worry about your own views and your own posts rather than acting as some curtain twitching tell tale on others.
He represents the conservative party in office and his language is unacceptable
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
Make the most of it - Boris will change you to Tier 4 soon
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing. ..
Ah, just a few SAS snatch raids. That's a relief, after all they wouldn't have to go very far. Easy-peezy logistics.
Good point, HY could sack Brecon and his SAS boys could be back in Hereford in under two hours. Cardiff? Travelling time and sacking, a little over four hours.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
Big G why don't you just worry about your own views and your own posts rather than acting as some curtain twitching tell tale on others.
I think Big_G, as a more or less lifelong Conservative, is entitled to express disquiet at the absurd antics of someone who apparently aspires to higher office in the party.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine.
Do not forget CCHQ now under Boris is the body that removed party grandees such as Soames and Grieve and Gauke and Stewart from even being able to stand again as Tory candidates for being insufficiently committed to the Boris party line
So party policy is the be all and end all? Especially given the Conservative tergeversations of the last decade?
Yes, it would have helped us be a net contributor to yet another EU gravy train. That fund reaffirmed my leave vote. There's no way we could ever be in anything that pooled credit and used our credit rating to borrow for other countries.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
Big G why don't you just worry about your own views and your own posts rather than acting as some curtain twitching tell tale on others.
He loves to stick his nose into places it isn't wanted, acting like the forum police and telling people what to do. And then gets mad when it gets called out.
It's honestly one of the most tiring things about this site.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
Big G why don't you just worry about your own views and your own posts rather than acting as some curtain twitching tell tale on others.
He represents the conservative party in office and his language is unacceptable
Then don't read his posts and stop ranting.
Not reading people's posts works surprisingly well. I usually don't read yours and that works just fine.
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine.
Do not forget CCHQ now under Boris is the body that removed party grandees such as Soames and Grieve and Gauke and Stewart from even being able to stand again as Tory candidates for being insufficiently committed to the Boris party line
Hey, I used to be a communist, and even we were more tolerant of each other than that. No two human beings agree about everything, and if one tries to insist they walk away, the pesky sods.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
Really? I was some years back on a holiday in Kent - inter aliis looked at a NT cottage in the Werald, stayed overnight in Maidstone and drove to Chatham for the nautical archaeology and Rochester Castle. I was struck by the disparities in wealth and income as we went throiugh it - Jessica's Pony's field alternating with grim proletarian pockets.
Sure. Kent is extremely mixed. Great wealth next door to proper deprivation. Same goes for essex.
But look at the stats: the new bug has taken hold across all of london and the Home/southern Counties. And that is the richest part of the country. Indeed London is the richest part of Europe
It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.
Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.
As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
Why?
Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
Why?
Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.
If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.
Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.
But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....
Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.
Don;t you understand how this works?
Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country. I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out. Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious. Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
I don't think that, ATM anyway, there's much intention to involve pharmacies, although it would be a good idea once we've got something which can be stored at a sensible temperature. And if we do it'll be all those who wish to participate, I hope.
Sorry didn't specifically mean a pharmacist. Just meant that those of us in the lowest risk category may well have to pay for it privately as the balance of risk to the nation may not be great. Could be wrong, just hope I can get it whether that's privately or NHS I'm not fussed. One chap in our running club got it and was knocked out by it - don't fancy that personally.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
Make the most of it - Boris will change you to Tier 4 soon
No indyref2 til 2024, and likely no indyref2 even after that, even under Labour. A generation = a generation
This could split the SNP. The hardcore will demand UDI
While I'm heartened and stirred by his words, and think a Labour recovery is pretty important if the Union is to have a chance in Scotland, I find it hard to see how the parties will sustain opposition once the SNP romp home in the spring, particularly when the various unionist parties seem like they cannot bear to cooperate even if only on this one issue. If it is not even close, and the winners are unequivocal about what they want, denial just seems so hard.
Hoping the SNP split over UDI backers and patient referendum backers, well, it just seems wistful to me. I'd love it to happen, but is it really likely?
I note that 13.2 million watched the Strictly Come Dancing final live; around 20% of the population? I'd read on here from the defund/hate the BBC crowd that nobody watched the (too woke) BBC any more? Meanwhile, like many others, I'm off to watch the PM's press conference... on the BBC.
I have a soft spot for him to be honest, but not everything is proof of the EU being great, nor would something where the EU is not great be an indicator the EU as a whole was not worthwhile, and this seems a curious example to pick to highlight. I mean, I guess we'll see how things go from here, but for the moment it seems odd.
Unionist desperation knows no bounds, tag team of the great clunking duffer and Bozo the Clown, independence will be at short odds for sure.
Seems you are going to have a longer wait for indy2 with Brown and Starmer teaming up and refusing to support it through the HOC
You seem to have got over your recent ‘blocking a referendum would be undemocratic’ spasm. Can we now expect you to participate in HYUFD’s baton wielding B Specials for the Union?
I don't think indyref2 is legally dependent on a House of Commons mandate. If you read the legal arguments for a referendum, regardless of what Westminster thinks, it seems reasonably strong.
Before anyone jumps in with 'that's what it says in law' I would point you to some of the complex arguments being advanced which may well by-pass Westminster.
If Westminster refuses one it would have as much effect as the Catalan referendum in defiance of Madrid, ie none
Spain is used to Franco authoritarianism.
Britain is a proud centuries old democracy.
If the mother of all Parliament's turns to Francoism then that would be to betray everything that is Great about Britain.
Wrong, Spain never even allowed Catalonia one legal independence vote.
Westminster allowed the Scots one in 2014, they voted 55% to stay in the UK in that 'once in a generation' referendum
Under British Parliamentary Democracy there is an overriding principle quite rightly that No Parliament can bind it's successors.
Whatever the Scottish voters elect in 2021 is their choice. Not yours. If that contradicts promises in 2014 so be it. That is why no Parliament can bind it's successors.
Either you respect democracy or you do not. Democracy is not a once in a generation event.
The Scottish referendum is in the sole purview of Westminster. It’s up to the Westminster parliament if they wish to grant it or not. They can take into account the composition of the Scottish Parliament if they do choose but it’s not the only factor
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine
I don't think going Franco or sending the army into Scotland is the CCHQ position.
I don't think comparing Scotland with the Catalans is the CCHQ position.
Tories aren't a dictatorship and are entitled to divert from the party line. But you uniquely spout things that are not the Tory position - like Franco style attacks on democracy - as if they are the Tory position.
The official government line is no indyref2 for a generation, exactly my position.
In terms of deploying riot police or the military I have only said that would have to be considered if nationalists turned violent with rioting etc in response to a government refusal to grant such a legal indyref2, that is just a statement of the obvious, in such circumstances there would be no alternative.
If you just said no for a generation people wouldn't object.
You go further with talk of sending the army in to squash a referendum like the Spanish did with the Catalans or the Chinese did with Hong Kong.
Please find me a Tory Minister doing that.
I was not saying now, merely hypothetically.
Say it is summer 2021, the SNP won a majority in the May Scottish Parliament elections and Sturgeon demanded indyref2, Boris refused to grant it as is UK government policy.
Hardline Nationalists are furious and take to the streets and start to turn violent and riot, smashing shops in Glasgow and major Scottish cities and attacking the police. Sturgeon refuses to restore order and even threatens UDI.
Boris would have no alternative in such circumstances than to send police reinforcements into Scotland and even the army to restore order
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.
I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".
Odd philosophy. 🤔
I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.
However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.
In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'
You genuinely need help
He's giving Essex a bad name.
He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.
You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine.
Do not forget CCHQ now under Boris is the body that removed party grandees such as Soames and Grieve and Gauke and Stewart from even being able to stand again as Tory candidates for being insufficiently committed to the Boris party line
So party policy is the be all and end all? Especially given the Conservative tergeversations of the last decade?
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
even Cornwall!
Fuck off
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
Make the most of it - Boris will change you to Tier 4 soon
No indyref2 til 2024, and likely no indyref2 even after that, even under Labour. A generation = a generation
This could split the SNP. The hardcore will demand UDI
While I'm heartened and stirred by his words, and think a Labour recovery is pretty important if the Union is to have a chance in Scotland, I find it hard to see how the parties will sustain opposition once the SNP romp home in the spring, particularly when the various unionist parties seem like they cannot bear to cooperate even if only on this one issue. If it is not even close, and the winners are unequivocal about what they want, denial just seems so hard.
Hoping the SNP split over UDI backers and patient referendum backers, well, it just seems wistful to me. I'd love it to happen, but is it really likely?
Yes, it’s likely. Westminster has hardened against indyref2. From left to right. What can the SNP do? Go to court.. where they will lose. And then?
That’s when they might split, quite easily. See how the Nats on here already divide between Sturgeon-admirers, and those who openly detest her.
We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
Looking at this, and Malmesbury’s excellent data, it is striking how R0 does NOT correlate with relative poverty. The richest parts of England are the most infected, some of the poorest parts of the UK have some of the lowest covid rates in the country.
Really? I was some years back on a holiday in Kent - inter aliis looked at a NT cottage in the Werald, stayed overnight in Maidstone and drove to Chatham for the nautical archaeology and Rochester Castle. I was struck by the disparities in wealth and income as we went throiugh it - Jessica's Pony's field alternating with grim proletarian pockets.
The UK is somewhat unusual in not hard-zoning it's poverty. The proles are showed out of the nice old stone parts of the villages, into the super grim council estate around the corner.
Compare with France, where the districts are close to being a different country. Even outside the big cities, the poverty seems to be segregated and carefully tucked away.
Unionist desperation knows no bounds, tag team of the great clunking duffer and Bozo the Clown, independence will be at short odds for sure.
Seems you are going to have a longer wait for indy2 with Brown and Starmer teaming up and refusing to support it through the HOC
You seem to have got over your recent ‘blocking a referendum would be undemocratic’ spasm. Can we now expect you to participate in HYUFD’s baton wielding B Specials for the Union?
I don't think indyref2 is legally dependent on a House of Commons mandate. If you read the legal arguments for a referendum, regardless of what Westminster thinks, it seems reasonably strong.
Before anyone jumps in with 'that's what it says in law' I would point you to some of the complex arguments being advanced which may well by-pass Westminster.
If Westminster refuses one it would have as much effect as the Catalan referendum in defiance of Madrid, ie none
Spain is used to Franco authoritarianism.
Britain is a proud centuries old democracy.
If the mother of all Parliament's turns to Francoism then that would be to betray everything that is Great about Britain.
Wrong, Spain never even allowed Catalonia one legal independence vote.
Westminster allowed the Scots one in 2014, they voted 55% to stay in the UK in that 'once in a generation' referendum
Under British Parliamentary Democracy there is an overriding principle quite rightly that No Parliament can bind it's successors.
Whatever the Scottish voters elect in 2021 is their choice. Not yours. If that contradicts promises in 2014 so be it. That is why no Parliament can bind it's successors.
Either you respect democracy or you do not. Democracy is not a once in a generation event.
The Scottish referendum is in the sole purview of Westminster. It’s up to the Westminster parliament if they wish to grant it or not. They can take into account the composition of the Scottish Parliament if they do choose but it’s not the only factor
It's a moral vs legal argument sort of question. I will never understand why people who believe in the former (which includes me, unhappily) get strange about the latter.
So you think it's fine for them to lie about the success of their scheme? I call our government out all the time, multiple times today in fact. The EU is having a worse crisis than the UK government and they're using a similar "world beating" narrative that has been criticised here so much. It deserves nothing but contempt just as the government bullshit over here does.
If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering
There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.
A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
My favourite canvassing anecdote was from one of my local election defences when three of us gathered at the end of a long road one April evening to parcel out the canvass cards.
The very first house on the righthand side of the road had a big Tory poster in the middle of the window, so my two colleagues quickly volunteered me take that side, and went off to do the first two houses on the other side. Normally, as you say, I'd skip such a house, but as it was the first one, and you never know whether there's a teenage son or somesuch who might vote differently, I thought, why not?
So the guy opens his door, and I say "I do see that you have a Conservative poster up, but as your current councillor I thought I'd call to say hello and see if anyone wanted to raise any local issues?". "Don't worry about the poster", says the guy. "My neighbour across the road works for the council and I know he votes Labour, so I only put the poster there to wind him up". So, says I, "as we normally beat the Tories here, how about you put one of ours up instead, which will really wind him up?" "Done", says the guy, and he takes the Tory poster down and fixes the orange diamond in its place straight away.
I'm walking back down to the road before my colleagues on the other side have even finished with their houses, and when they turn round they can't believe their eyes. I just smile and continue to the next house. I dined out on that lucky canvass for years, which happened exactly as I just told it, no exaggeration.
Be even funnier if, before telling the whole truth, you played it up a bit. "Yeah, no big thing, I just set out the basic principles of liberalism vs conservatism, talked up our local record, and bish bash bosh, he's in the palm of my hands. Simple'.
I did keep everyone in the dark for quite a while, and let them wonder.
Tbf I was pretty good at getting our posters up; in one local election I managed to get four of the houses of the ten people who had signed my Tory opponent's nomination papers to put a LibDem poster up, which I reckon must be a record for any candidate anywhere. He had made the mistake of badgering his mates for signatures, rather than party members, and it turned out few of them really liked him.
Boris and Shapps are actually coming across rather well and professionally in this press conference (I've only just logged on so I haven't been influenced by the chat on this thread).
It feels to me like Allegra and Carrie have been doing some training.
Yes, it would have helped us be a net contributor to yet another EU gravy train. That fund reaffirmed my leave vote. There's no way we could ever be in anything that pooled credit and used our credit rating to borrow for other countries.
Not only that but the way it works is that any country can put a block on another country receiving fund money pending an eu review of how the commitments they are being asked to implement in order to access the fund are going. I wonder which country other than poland and hungry might have been the subject of many blocking moves?
Boris and Shapps are actually coming across rather well and professionally in this press conference (I've only just logged on so I haven't been influenced by the chat on this thread).
It feels to me like Allegra and Carrie have been doing some training.
Consumate professionals. Like Laurel and Hardy or Morecambe and Wise?
So you think it's fine for them to lie about the success of their scheme? I call our government out all the time, multiple times today in fact. The EU is having a worse crisis than the UK government and they're using a similar "world beating" narrative that has been criticised here so much. It deserves nothing but contempt just as the government bullshit over here does.
I literally couldn't care less what some bloke in the EU is saying.
Why? Because it has zero impact on the lives of anyone in this country.
Comments
Yes I expect the disruption to be concurrent. If someone's work is temporarily disrupted - but they're already furloughed - will they even notice?
https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1324616486397370368?s=20
In terms of deploying riot police or the military I have only said that would have to be considered if nationalists turned violent with rioting etc in response to a government refusal to grant such a legal indyref2, that is just a statement of the obvious, in such circumstances there would be no alternative.
Newcastle stars Jamaal Lascelles and Allan Saint-Maximin are suffering from long Covid and struggling to walk and have sores and mouth ulcers as Steve Bruce fears for their long-term health
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9075745/Newcastle-captain-Jamal-Lascelles-star-winger-Allan-Saint-Maximin-suffering-long-Covid.html
Tbf I was pretty good at getting our posters up; in one local election I managed to get four of the houses of the ten people who had signed my Tory opponent's nomination papers to put a LibDem poster up, which I reckon must be a record for any candidate anywhere. He had made the mistake of badgering his mates for signatures, rather than party members, and it turned out few of them really liked him.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1341056675034374148?s=20
We'll be back to normal in a few years - the biggest danger to the long term of the UK right now is a shambolic Brexit implementation, not Covid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Naked_Sun
You go further with talk of sending the army in to squash a referendum like the Spanish did with the Catalans or the Chinese did with Hong Kong.
Please find me a Tory Minister doing that.
(only kidding)
I'm in remote Cornwall and I'd quite like not to have Tier 4 down here. Ta.
I was once delivering stuff (not political) to people's houses during an election. It was a very Labour/Lib Dem area, the local MP was under threat due to the Iraq war and tuition fees. I was going through one of the nicer parts of the neighbourhood and was surprised to see nothing for the Tories. I knew then that they weren't going to poll well. I then got to one house in the middle of the street that had a huge Conservative placard in their front lawn. Making a statement I thought, they'll get at least one vote anyway. I knocked on the door and a middle aged blonde lady in a dressing gown answered. She didn't seem like the type to engage in conversation so I quickly moved on. Go in through the gate next door and there is a load of Labour material up. I knock on the door and it turns out to be the home of my local MP. I always wonder what sort of relationship he had with his neighbours.
So when there are lockdowns after most people are vaccinated for covid 19, as I reckon there will be, we can expect you to be opposed to them
Beyond that, they have eff all say in the matter.
In terms of your authoritarian fantasies, I'd say you need to take a chill pill.
When the next election rolled round I had to message them to settle the bet, as it seems they'd forgotten about it.
https://twitter.com/keir_starmer/status/1341061004415922178?s=21
No indyref2 til 2024, and likely no indyref2 even after that, even under Labour. A generation = a generation
This could split the SNP. The hardcore will demand UDI
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1341026441568407555?s=20
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-planning-disaster-germany-and-europe-could-fall-short-on-vaccine-supplies-a-3db4702d-ae23-4e85-85b7-20145a898abd-amp?__twitter_impression=true
https://twitter.com/MayorofGM/status/1341057418202140672
It's honestly one of the most tiring things about this site.
Does that include the footballers and staff going there to fulfill boxing day fixtures I wonder?
Not reading people's posts works surprisingly well. I usually don't read yours and that works just fine.
North Korean fishing boat captain publicly executed for listening to banned foreign radio
https://thehill.com/policy/international/asia-pacific/531122-north-korean-fishing-boat-captain-publicly-executed-for
The Welsh are the pineapple topping on the pizza that is the United Kingdom.
But look at the stats: the new bug has taken hold across all of london and the Home/southern Counties. And that is the richest part of the country. Indeed London is the richest part of Europe
Pretty prompt on Hamilton and Bailey this weekend.
Hoping the SNP split over UDI backers and patient referendum backers, well, it just seems wistful to me. I'd love it to happen, but is it really likely?
I note that 13.2 million watched the Strictly Come Dancing final live; around 20% of the population? I'd read on here from the defund/hate the BBC crowd that nobody watched the (too woke) BBC any more? Meanwhile, like many others, I'm off to watch the PM's press conference... on the BBC.
Say it is summer 2021, the SNP won a majority in the May Scottish Parliament elections and Sturgeon demanded indyref2, Boris refused to grant it as is UK government policy.
Hardline Nationalists are furious and take to the streets and start to turn violent and riot, smashing shops in Glasgow and major Scottish cities and attacking the police. Sturgeon refuses to restore order and even threatens UDI.
Boris would have no alternative in such circumstances than to send police reinforcements into Scotland and even the army to restore order
That’s when they might split, quite easily. See how the Nats on here already divide between Sturgeon-admirers, and those who openly detest her.
Compare with France, where the districts are close to being a different country. Even outside the big cities, the poverty seems to be segregated and carefully tucked away.
Betfair will want to know.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-planning-disaster-germany-and-europe-could-fall-short-on-vaccine-supplies-a-3db4702d-ae23-4e85-85b7-20145a898abd
So only 363 days to wait.
https://www.loudersound.com/news/a-song-called-boris-johnson-is-a-fking-ct-could-be-the-uks-xmas-number-1
It feels to me like Allegra and Carrie have been doing some training.
Why? Because it has zero impact on the lives of anyone in this country.
https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-dangerous-is-the-covid-mutation/