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Cockney Covid: is it already everywhere? – politicalbetting.com

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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kle4 said:

    Do people ever really know who the Shadow Chancellor is? I don't remember the mid 90s, but I can barely remember any of them since.
    She is useless but much less useless that Hodges - 'given everything that has been happening' - unless you are a politico not much has been happening. Polls show very large numbers of people support the latest measures whether they like it or not. Most people had already planned a very low key Covid Xmas. I think if twitter, etc was suspended for a couple of months we might actually get some real understanding about people. There was a time when journalism attempted to report what people thought instead of what they want people to think. So boring.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I just do not agree with his views
    5th Columnist? 🤔🇬🇧🇬🇧
  • Stocky said:

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    It`s not on the radars of the leavers that I know, who are not particularly politically engaged anyway (unless you count reading the Daily Mail) and are just pleased that we are no longer in the EU.
    Well precisely and isn't that a good thing?

    If we end up with either a Deal or No Deal and the public don't even notice in amongst all the Covid stuff then will that be a problem?

    I always expected there to be disruption when we leave the SM and CU whether Deal or No Deal but in amongst the Covid disruption its barely going to be noticed. We need to get on with whatever we're doing either way - no kicking the can - and get through the disruption and to the other side.

    Whatever is destroyed can start to be recovered from post-Covid post-transition simultaneously.
  • I refuse to believe some people here have jobs :)
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Fishing said:

    One of these days we will be able to estimate how many lives the EU's lethargy and incompetence have cost.
    Let’s win the race first!

    Tort & Hair innit?

    What if they gave us head start then get way ahead in the speed they do it, whilst ours goes all tracing app.

    You calculating UK deaths due to unnecessarily slow roll out too?
  • Anecdote: my uncle's care home in Penzance has now had the vaccination done (obvs part 1). I'm quite impressed how the thing is rolling out across the country - I don't really care if people according to preference want to credit Boris or the centralised NHS or the brilliance of Britain, I'm just really pleased to see something working well.

    Excellent. Do you know how they organised it, i.e. did they bring the vaccine to the care home, or take the residents to a vaccination centre?
    He has difficulty in talking much (the home initiated a WhatsApp call, which I thought was pretty good service too) - he can't walk outside his room so I'm pretty sure the nurse came to him.

    People have lots of terrible stories about care of the elderly, but I must say I've no complaints whatever. I applied for him about 5 years ago when he became too unwell to live at home. Cornwall Social Services suggested half a dozen potential places, I went round and expressed a preference (Penlee), they said enthusiastically that was a great choice, arranged transport, settled him in, and visited twice after he'd settled to make sure he was happy. They are paying 100% of his fees, and the home guarantees he can stay permanently no matter how ill he gets. Really the council couldn't have done a better job if they were family.

    I wrote to Cornwall social services' head to say how amazed I was and had a nice letter back. The council is run by an Independent-LibDem coalition and if I lived there I'd be very tempted to vote for them.
    That's good to hear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited December 2020
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    OMG has @HYUFD opened up another front? We are going to need considerably more troops.
    Conscription - national service will deal with unemployment to boot.

    See everyone on the front lines. I trust the loyal unionist welsh and scottish PBers will make it through. To the enemy forces posters, may we find each other as honourable opponents on the battlefield.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:
    I've never watched Elf as I find Will Ferrell very annoying, and have seen only half the total list. I may have overloaded on cheesy Hallmark Xmas movies.
    Yes but Ferrell is very well cast, as the title role is a bit annoying. A great Christmas film.
    It has just the right amount of silliness and schmaltz for a Christmas film. I like it a lot. It's not the best comedy EVER, but at Christmas time it's just the ticket.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,883
    edited December 2020
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I just do not agree with his views
    5th Columnist? 🤔🇬🇧🇬🇧
    What I am seriously wondering is whose views are more typical of the Conservative Party. We've got [edit] BigG (and understandabkly he doesn't want to be collateral damage), and PT, but ...
  • eek said:

    An interesting consequence of the travel bans

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1341050883925270529

    There are a lot of students now stuck in the UK...

    That is so unfortunate and I really feel for them
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited December 2020

    Anecdote: my uncle's care home in Penzance has now had the vaccination done (obvs part 1). I'm quite impressed how the thing is rolling out across the country - I don't really care if people according to preference want to credit Boris or the centralised NHS or the brilliance of Britain, I'm just really pleased to see something working well.

    Excellent. Do you know how they organised it, i.e. did they bring the vaccine to the care home, or take the residents to a vaccination centre?
    He has difficulty in talking much (the home initiated a WhatsApp call, which I thought was pretty good service too) - he can't walk outside his room so I'm pretty sure the nurse came to him.

    People have lots of terrible stories about care of the elderly, but I must say I've no complaints whatever. I applied for him about 5 years ago when he became too unwell to live at home. Cornwall Social Services suggested half a dozen potential places, I went round and expressed a preference (Penlee), they said enthusiastically that was a great choice, arranged transport, settled him in, and visited twice after he'd settled to make sure he was happy. They are paying 100% of his fees, and the home guarantees he can stay permanently no matter how ill he gets. Really the council couldn't have done a better job if they were family.

    I wrote to Cornwall social services' head to say how amazed I was and had a nice letter back. The council is run by an Independent-LibDem coalition and if I lived there I'd be very tempted to vote for them.
    In fairness there's not a great deal of chance of a Labour council down there. There's about 4 or 5 out of 126 (soon to 87) and that a high amount compared to some previous years. So reasonable consideration of others is not, er, unreasonable.
  • Piers Morgan's son Spencer 'escapes' Tier 4 by bolting to country home
    The 27-year-old left the city ahead of strict new Tier 4 restrictions, bolting for Newick, where Piers and wife Celia have a large second home complete with idyllic grounds and a swimming pool

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/piers-morgans-son-spencer-escapes-23201052.amp

    I am sure Piers Moron will be again telling us all how proud he is on his sons actions, while screaming with rage at all the other covid idiots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Stocky said:

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    It`s not on the radars of the leavers that I know, who are not particularly politically engaged anyway (unless you count reading the Daily Mail) and are just pleased that we are no longer in the EU.
    Well precisely and isn't that a good thing?

    If we end up with either a Deal or No Deal and the public don't even notice in amongst all the Covid stuff then will that be a problem?

    I always expected there to be disruption when we leave the SM and CU whether Deal or No Deal but in amongst the Covid disruption its barely going to be noticed. We need to get on with whatever we're doing either way - no kicking the can - and get through the disruption and to the other side.

    Whatever is destroyed can start to be recovered from post-Covid post-transition simultaneously.
    From my discussions with them they don`t care whether or not there is a deal with the EU as long as the deal is a good one, based chiefly on trade. But they will be beyond furious if Johnson signs up to a poor deal, which for them is one which doesn`t retain the sovereignty that has so recently been returned.

    This is the mind-set of the small cohort of leave voters that I know, family and friends. I live in a big leave area and I am the exception rather than the rule around here.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    OMG has @HYUFD opened up another front? We are going to need considerably more troops.
    The campaign on the Northern front has be planned for months if not years. The Western campaign came as s bit of a surprise yesterday. Nothing wrong with ambition, mind you.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Somebody on a radio show this morning pointing out the logical fallacy of the government's position on the mutant strain.

    If it has been known about since October, it must already be all over the UK, seeing as it travels at turbo speeds.

    Well quite.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    felix said:

    kle4 said:

    Do people ever really know who the Shadow Chancellor is? I don't remember the mid 90s, but I can barely remember any of them since.
    There was a time when journalism attempted to report what people thought instead of what they want people to think.
    Is Hodges a journalist? I'd always considered him simply a pundit. Which is not to disparage the noble cause of punditry, but there's a lot of people whose job is just to opine, rather than report.

    Given the public have a thousand ways of spreading our opinions for free now, I'm actually amazed how many people do make a living from political punditry.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if thy were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    If they have never voted for your party anyway at either a national or local election and you have the records for that you would not bother to canvass them anyway, rule 1 of canvassing is your time needs to be efficiently managed and you focus only on supporters or potential supporters.

    If you canvass them and they tell you they have never voted Tory then you mark them down as against and similarly never bother to canvass them again, they would never 'return to the true path' as they would never have been on it anyway. Plus if they did not vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won their biggest majority since 1987 you can be pretty sure they would not be voting Tory at any election in the foreseeable future
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    He did not just threaten, he actually voted for Farage's Party last May.

    He voted for Blair, he voted for Farage, he is only fractionally more likely to vote Tory than you
  • It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    gealbhan said:

    I refuse to believe some people here have jobs :)

    F*** M*! I sensed I had forgotten something today!
    PBers complaining about their jobs and bosses
    https://youtu.be/0R2fcxPYbzQ?t=32
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    I refuse to believe some people here have jobs :)

    How do you think I could afford all the candles in the home office?


  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    OMG has @HYUFD opened up another front? We are going to need considerably more troops.
    The campaign on the Northern front has be planned for months if not years. The Western campaign came as s bit of a surprise yesterday. Nothing wrong with ambition, mind you.
    It's the route to full employment coming out of the COVID depression.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    An almost unique circumstance where saying that you would invade Wales was actually the more moderate answer!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    I agree you focus on possibles and probables in the pre campaign and early campaign period and those who have not been canvassed before to identify support.

    However you still need to canvass your firm supporters at least once in the campaign to ensure they stay firm and on election day to get them out to vote
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2020
    HYUFD said:



    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.
    ..

    Ah, just a few SAS snatch raids. That's a relief, after all they wouldn't have to go very far. Easy-peezy logistics.
  • TimT said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    OMG has @HYUFD opened up another front? We are going to need considerably more troops.
    The campaign on the Northern front has be planned for months if not years. The Western campaign came as s bit of a surprise yesterday. Nothing wrong with ambition, mind you.
    It's the route to full employment coming out of the COVID depression.
    He has an opinion poll saying it would be a popular idea.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if thy were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    If they have never voted for your party anyway at either a national or local election and you have the records for that you would not bother to canvass them anyway, rule 1 of canvassing is your time needs to be efficiently managed and you focus only on supporters or potential supporters.

    If you canvass them and they tell you they have never voted Tory then you mark them down as against and similarly never bother to canvass them again, they would never 'return to the true path' as they would never have been on it anyway. Plus if they did not vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won their biggest majority since 1987 you can be pretty sure they would not be voting Tory at any election in the foreseeable future
    The point was that while there may be some sense in not wasting your time with people who won't be persuadable, people who hold voters of other parties, at any time and for any reason (even if, for instance, it was in 1997, once, at the low mark for Tory support), in such brazen contempt, are unlikely to be very good at assessing who is worth their time and who is not.

    I hope for your party's sake that cool heads make those calls on who should be disregarded. Not those who, perhaps, are incredibly quick to write people off forever and gratuitously insult them. Because people like that probably think they can hide that from voters, but I'd bet that is not the case.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    Anecdote: my uncle's care home in Penzance has now had the vaccination done (obvs part 1). I'm quite impressed how the thing is rolling out across the country - I don't really care if people according to preference want to credit Boris or the centralised NHS or the brilliance of Britain, I'm just really pleased to see something working well.

    Excellent. Do you know how they organised it, i.e. did they bring the vaccine to the care home, or take the residents to a vaccination centre?
    He has difficulty in talking much (the home initiated a WhatsApp call, which I thought was pretty good service too) - he can't walk outside his room so I'm pretty sure the nurse came to him.

    People have lots of terrible stories about care of the elderly, but I must say I've no complaints whatever. I applied for him about 5 years ago when he became too unwell to live at home. Cornwall Social Services suggested half a dozen potential places, I went round and expressed a preference (Penlee), they said enthusiastically that was a great choice, arranged transport, settled him in, and visited twice after he'd settled to make sure he was happy. They are paying 100% of his fees, and the home guarantees he can stay permanently no matter how ill he gets. Really the council couldn't have done a better job if they were family.

    I wrote to Cornwall social services' head to say how amazed I was and had a nice letter back. The council is run by an Independent-LibDem coalition and if I lived there I'd be very tempted to vote for them.
    If you lived anywhere in Cornwall, you most certainly should!
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
    Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.

    But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....

    Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    I refuse to believe some people here have jobs :)

    I am off today, and have been given some chores to complete, so here I am! On days with clients, accessing PB can sometimes appear rude. When I am in the office and my business partner is out I craftily log onto PB, but only when I am alone. Although that sounds a little like how internet porn enthusiasts manage their addiction.

    Anyway the good news is we reconfigured the office last week. All four desks are on the one wall and my computer screen now faces the back wall (it was facing every one else's workstation) so I can spend all day on PB and it will look like I am working.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Wonder if the PM will start with the number of them on the Tory benches?
    Thought not.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Well, I don't know, but all I'm doing is reflecting back to you your arguments for the past several months musing about reality versus expectations.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if thy were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    If they have never voted for your party anyway at either a national or local election and you have the records for that you would not bother to canvass them anyway, rule 1 of canvassing is your time needs to be efficiently managed and you focus only on supporters or potential supporters.

    If you canvass them and they tell you they have never voted Tory then you mark them down as against and similarly never bother to canvass them again, they would never 'return to the true path' as they would never have been on it anyway. Plus if they did not vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won their biggest majority since 1987 you can be pretty sure they would not be voting Tory at any election in the foreseeable future
    The point was that while there may be some sense in not wasting your time with people who won't be persuadable, people who hold voters of other parties, at any time and for any reason (even if, for instance, it was in 1997, once, at the low mark for Tory support), in such brazen contempt, are unlikely to be very good at assessing who is worth their time and who is not.

    I hope for your party's sake that cool heads make those calls on who should be disregarded. Not those who, perhaps, are incredibly quick to write people off forever and gratuitously insult them. Because people like that probably think they can hide that from voters, but I'd bet that is not the case.
    Wise words
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Somebody on a radio show this morning pointing out the logical fallacy of the government's position on the mutant strain.

    If it has been known about since October, it must already be all over the UK, seeing as it travels at turbo speeds.

    Well quite.

    Well, they say there's no point closing the barn doors when the horses have bolted, but you never know, there might still be one or two left in the pens, so we'll close them just in case.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Well, 'mildly plead with Nationalists with a wet blanket' does not have quite the same ring to it!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Well, I don't know, but all I'm doing is reflecting back to you your arguments for the past several months musing about reality versus expectations.
    Well indeed and expectations have been set via Covid19 that disruptions are part of every day life have they not?

    If Brexit causes disruption, and I expect it would even in normal circumstances, would anyone even notice the difference right now?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
    My statement would be a mild response in many parts of Essex to the SNP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
    Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.

    But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....

    Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
    Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
  • Not sure what a 2 day ban achieves?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Anybody who argues that covid has not been hi-jacked by the hard left for their own purposes really ought to look at Wales.

    Does the economy there exist, at all?

    Does democracy still exist at all? I understand Comrade Drakeford wants to avoid the inconvenience of a verdict on his tutelage in May of next year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    edited December 2020
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
    He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    On the upcoming locals (which sadly may be a strange affair as counting takes place over several days rather than overnight), I'm hoping for a very fun time I must say. In different areas in my county the local Tories or LDs have had some internal strife, which could throw up some interesting results if various ousted figures go Indy. It'll be nice to get back to some good election squabbling.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    Forgive me, I assumed "crushed with an iron fist" was Kruschev-speak for rolling the tanks into Prague, or in your case Monmouthshire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Well, 'mildly plead with Nationalists with a wet blanket' does not have quite the same ring to it!
    Shall we mildly plead with an iron fist or crush them with a wet blanket, as a compromise?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
    My statement would be a mild response in many parts of Essex to the SNP
    Twitter is not Britain.
    Essex is not Britain.

    Essex is not the only way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    edited December 2020
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if thy were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    If they have never voted for your party anyway at either a national or local election and you have the records for that you would not bother to canvass them anyway, rule 1 of canvassing is your time needs to be efficiently managed and you focus only on supporters or potential supporters.

    If you canvass them and they tell you they have never voted Tory then you mark them down as against and similarly never bother to canvass them again, they would never 'return to the true path' as they would never have been on it anyway. Plus if they did not vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won their biggest majority since 1987 you can be pretty sure they would not be voting Tory at any election in the foreseeable future
    The point was that while there may be some sense in not wasting your time with people who won't be persuadable, people who hold voters of other parties, at any time and for any reason (even if, for instance, it was in 1997, once, at the low mark for Tory support), in such brazen contempt, are unlikely to be very good at assessing who is worth their time and who is not.

    I hope for your party's sake that cool heads make those calls on who should be disregarded. Not those who, perhaps, are incredibly quick to write people off forever and gratuitously insult them. Because people like that probably think they can hide that from voters, but I'd bet that is not the case.
    Where have I gratuitously insulted voters? Where have I said if you canvass non Tory voters you swear at them?

    The fact I do not spend every waking hour trying to appease Philip Thompson who seems to think he is the oracle of how to appease swing voters despite advocating a No Deal Brexit 24/7 and being a republican atheist, still very much a minority position, does not change that.

    Plus it also depends on the seat, if it was held even in 1997 by the Tories, Tory canvassers only need to concentrate on known Tory voters (with the exception of Canterbury which is the only seat the Tories won in 1997 they do not currently hold). If not then they will also need to find voters who voted Tory in 2019 when the Tories won a majority of 80 even if they did not vote Tory in 1997 if they voted then
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Pulpstar said:

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
    Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.

    But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....

    Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
    Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
    By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.

    Don;t you understand how this works?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
    He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
    Desist, or you will be "crushed with an iron fist"!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
    Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.

    But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....

    Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
    Re: "We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough". See below:

    http://www.wardour.co.uk/opinion/post/lockdown-and-stockholm-syndrome
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Well, 'mildly plead with Nationalists with a wet blanket' does not have quite the same ring to it!
    'Convince a majority to reject Nationalism at the ballot box' doesn't work for you either?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Well, I don't know, but all I'm doing is reflecting back to you your arguments for the past several months musing about reality versus expectations.
    Well indeed and expectations have been set via Covid19 that disruptions are part of every day life have they not?

    If Brexit causes disruption, and I expect it would even in normal circumstances, would anyone even notice the difference right now?
    Beware the straw that breaks the camel's back, or the point at which a change in quantity becomes a change in quality.

    People might also make a distinction between disruption arising from government policy and disruption arising from a global pandemic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    My favourite canvassing anecdote was from one of my local election defences when three of us gathered at the end of a long road one April evening to parcel out the canvass cards.

    The very first house on the righthand side of the road had a big Tory poster in the middle of the window, so my two colleagues quickly volunteered me take that side, and went off to do the first two houses on the other side. Normally, as you say, I'd skip such a house, but as it was the first one, and you never know whether there's a teenage son or somesuch who might vote differently, I thought, why not?

    So the guy opens his door, and I say "I do see that you have a Conservative poster up, but as your current councillor I thought I'd call to say hello and see if anyone wanted to raise any local issues?". "Don't worry about the poster", says the guy. "My neighbour across the road works for the council and I know he votes Labour, so I only put the poster there to wind him up". So, says I, "as we normally beat the Tories here, how about you put one of ours up instead, which will really wind him up?" "Done", says the guy, and he takes the Tory poster down and fixes the orange diamond in its place straight away.

    I'm walking back down to the road before my colleagues on the other side have even finished with their houses, and when they turn round they can't believe their eyes. I just smile and continue to the next house. I dined out on that lucky canvass for years, which happened exactly as I just told it, no exaggeration.
    Be even funnier if, before telling the whole truth, you played it up a bit. "Yeah, no big thing, I just set out the basic principles of liberalism vs conservatism, talked up our local record, and bish bash bosh, he's in the palm of my hands. Simple'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Well, I don't know, but all I'm doing is reflecting back to you your arguments for the past several months musing about reality versus expectations.
    Well indeed and expectations have been set via Covid19 that disruptions are part of every day life have they not?

    If Brexit causes disruption, and I expect it would even in normal circumstances, would anyone even notice the difference right now?
    Beware the straw that breaks the camel's back, or the point at which a change in quantity becomes a change in quality.

    People might also make a distinction between disruption arising from government policy and disruption arising from a global pandemic.
    They might, or they might not.

    But if there's going to be disruption either way then why not get it all over and done with now? Why postpone it until we've all been vaccinated and are trying to get back to normal and then go through the disruption another time?
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Anybody who argues that covid has not been hi-jacked by the hard left for their own purposes really ought to look at Wales.

    Does the economy there exist, at all?

    Does democracy still exist at all? I understand Comrade Drakeford wants to avoid the inconvenience of a verdict on his tutelage in May of next year.
    That is a different issue but to be fair the only redeeming feature of Drakeford is that he is pro the union
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    Anybody who argues that covid has not been hi-jacked by the hard left for their own purposes really ought to look at Wales.

    Does the economy there exist, at all?

    Does democracy still exist at all? I understand Comrade Drakeford wants to avoid the inconvenience of a verdict on his tutelage in May of next year.
    That is a different issue but to be fair the only redeeming feature of Drakeford is that he is pro the union
    It would be completely astonishing if he were anything else considering how England bankrolls the socialism of Wales.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    HYUFD said:



    I agree you focus on possibles and probables in the pre campaign and early campaign period and those who have not been canvassed before to identify support.

    However you still need to canvass your firm supporters at least once in the campaign to ensure they stay firm and on election day to get them out to vote

    I don't disagree - a lot depends on what resources you have and when. I was fortunate to have a couple of canvassers who would only go out during the day - I would assign them the roads and houses with elderly people as the elderly are less willing to open the door in the evening.

    I would obviously try to visit the "firm" supporters but I never wanted my canvassers to spend a lot of time unless there was a problem.

    Election Day is a different matter - back in the day, it was knock-up sheets and tallies based on the canvass returns. I know some areas would start knocking up early but I was never that convinced and especially in commuter areas where a lot voted on the way home or in the evening.

    There was also the matter of targeting resources - if you thought you were okay, you could send some people over to another Ward where they needed help and vice versa.

    I always found candidates a mixed blessing - local candidates would be really helpful as they sometimes had a personal vote but when I was a constituency Agent, I didn't want my candidate knocking on doors. If a resident wanted a word, fine, but make it quick and on Polling Day, a trip round the polling stations kept them out of my way.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2020

    Not sure what a 2 day ban achieves?
    I suspect they may want to get their ducks in a row to allow i) Citizens/residents only to return and ii) appropriate testing/quarantine in place for them on arrival.

    We should have done the same. In March.

    EDIT

    For example:

    https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1341059120040976384?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,130
    edited December 2020

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
    He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
    I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.

    You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine.

    Do not forget CCHQ now under Boris is the body that removed party grandees such as Soames and Grieve and Gauke and Stewart from even being able to stand again as Tory candidates for being insufficiently committed to the Boris party line
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    Forgive me, I assumed "crushed with an iron fist" was Kruschev-speak for rolling the tanks into Prague, or in your case Monmouthshire.
    Kruschev had "retired" to his dacha by then I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,096
    edited December 2020

    Not sure what a 2 day ban achieves?
    I suspect they may want to get their ducks in a row to allow i) Citizens/residents only to return and ii) appropriate testing/quarantine in place for them on arrival.

    We should have done the same. In March.
    Everybody should have.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Stocky said:

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
    Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.

    But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....

    Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
    Re: "We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough". See below:

    http://www.wardour.co.uk/opinion/post/lockdown-and-stockholm-syndrome
    The government has managed to isolate a huge number of people from the economic consequences of lockdown. That partly explains why many people support it, I think

    At some juncture, that must end. Surely.

  • Not sure what a 2 day ban achieves?
    Time to work something out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited December 2020
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if thy were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    If they have never voted for your party anyway at either a national or local election and you have the records for that you would not bother to canvass them anyway, rule 1 of canvassing is your time needs to be efficiently managed and you focus only on supporters or potential supporters.

    If you canvass them and they tell you they have never voted Tory then you mark them down as against and similarly never bother to canvass them again, they would never 'return to the true path' as they would never have been on it anyway. Plus if they did not vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won their biggest majority since 1987 you can be pretty sure they would not be voting Tory at any election in the foreseeable future
    The point was that while there may be some sense in not wasting your time with people who won't be persuadable, people who hold voters of other parties, at any time and for any reason (even if, for instance, it was in 1997, once, at the low mark for Tory support), in such brazen contempt, are unlikely to be very good at assessing who is worth their time and who is not.

    I hope for your party's sake that cool heads make those calls on who should be disregarded. Not those who, perhaps, are incredibly quick to write people off forever and gratuitously insult them. Because people like that probably think they can hide that from voters, but I'd bet that is not the case.
    Where have I gratuitously insulted voters? Where have I said if you canvass non Tory voters you swear at them?

    The fact I do not spend every waking hour trying to appease Philip Thompson who seems to think he is the oracle of how to appease swing voters despite advocating a No Deal Brexit 24/7 and being a republican atheist, still very much a minority position, does not change that.

    Plus it also depends on the seat, if it was held even in 1997 by the Tories, Tory canvassers only need to concentrate on known Tory voters (with the exception of Canterbury which is the only seat the Tories won in 1997 they do not currently hold). If not then they will also need to find voters who voted Tory in 2019 even if they did not vote Tory in 1997 if they voted then
    As someone who likes to be precise and pedantic with your arguments I am very surprised that you did not pick up that I very carefully did not say that you had gratuitously insulted anyone. I said I hope your party does not rely on people who do that when determining who to disregard. I won't be so false as to pretend you were not in my mind, at least in terms of writing people off far too soon (since you are, by all accounts, polite) and therefore being a very very very very bad judge of people who are not Conservative loyalists, but I did not say you insulted voters. I have no proof of that. What we have proof of is only your uncompromising view of those who are not loyal, which likely makes you a bad judge of those people.

    I'm not sure why you have brought up swearing at all, unless you think it impossible to insult someone without swearing, which is nonsensical. But would explain a lot, if you believe rudeness is simply a matter of language.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    I refuse to believe some people here have jobs :)

    I am off today, and have been given some chores to complete, so here I am! On days with clients, accessing PB can sometimes appear rude. When I am in the office and my business partner is out I craftily log onto PB, but only when I am alone. Although that sounds a little like how internet porn enthusiasts manage their addiction.

    Anyway the good news is we reconfigured the office last week. All four desks are on the one wall and my computer screen now faces the back wall (it was facing every one else's workstation) so I can spend all day on PB and it will look like I am working.
    When I was working for a certain large multinational, in the early days of the web, I was careful not to do any browsing around on company time.

    A couple of years into the job, I had made friends with the infrastructure people (get to know the people who "hold the building up" is a habit of mine.

    The subject of work surveillance came up. One of the system admin told me I was OK either way - he ran a script to delete the external browsing habits of friends of his from the logs.... and had included me.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Afternoon all :)

    Just a thought - aren't we doing this vaccine thing wrong? Shouldn't we be vaccinating the children first as they seem to be the carriers and, assuming the vaccine stops you becoming a carrier, wouldn't that slow the rate of transmission and the number of cases?

    Vaccinating those who are or should be already shielding isn't going to have a strong impact on the case numbers, is it, as those who are shielding shouldn't be in contact with others and therefore shouldn't be as susceptible to the vaccine?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,444
    This is because it is a mere gesture, to appease EU public opinion.

    EU governments have seen the data, and have realised:

    1. Closing the borders to the UK causes serious economic and social harm to the EU, and

    2. It’s all pretty pointless. They already have Supercovid inside their borders
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    edited December 2020

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Well, I don't know, but all I'm doing is reflecting back to you your arguments for the past several months musing about reality versus expectations.
    Well indeed and expectations have been set via Covid19 that disruptions are part of every day life have they not?

    If Brexit causes disruption, and I expect it would even in normal circumstances, would anyone even notice the difference right now?
    Beware the straw that breaks the camel's back, or the point at which a change in quantity becomes a change in quality.

    People might also make a distinction between disruption arising from government policy and disruption arising from a global pandemic.
    They might, or they might not.

    But if there's going to be disruption either way then why not get it all over and done with now? Why postpone it until we've all been vaccinated and are trying to get back to normal and then go through the disruption another time?
    I'm not making a case for delay. I'm just arguing how a no deal Brexit now won't necessarily be something you can sneak through without anyone noticing.

    Choosing the optimal time for a no deal Brexit is a fool's errand - but there is always a risk that combining disasters makes the outcome a lot worse than the sum of their parts.

    The effects of disruption could combine multiplicatively, rather than linearly. You seem to be assuming they will combine in the same way as concurrent jail sentences.

    I might suggest that is a trifle brave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Pulpstar said:

    It does seem remarkable on 21/12/20 with transition ending on 31/12/20 just how little mention the lack of a Brexit deal is getting, except for on this site.

    Covid really has upended all the assumptions of the 2017-19 Parliament.

    As you've said before, it's whether people notice in January that's important. In terms of establishing a narrative of, "Yes, that's a little disruption, but not as much as feared," it would be more helpful to you for expectations now to be calibrated by wall-to-wall Brexit doom.
    Why?

    Seems to me its going to be ignored in the wall-to-wall Covid doom.
    Because any disruption will come as a shock, and people won't have had time to normalize themselves to it.
    Why?

    Right now being in a constant state of shock is the new normal. Everything being abnormal is normalised.

    If you'd told the voters of Kent in normal circumstances that the border is closed, lorries everywhere and the public need to stay at home if they can and off the roads if they can then that would be Project Fear. Tell them that today and its Covidtime.

    Just what's going to happen in January that will be shocking and unseen in the past 12 months?
    Its almost as if always keeping people off balance, always moving the goalposts, always keeping people unsure and afraid and in a state of constant turmoil, was a deliberate policy of the several committed communists on the SAGE mental sciences team.
    Its almost as if we're in the midst of a rapidly evolving global pandemic.
    Every virus known to man evolves and changes all the time. Its just that we haven;t used the thousands of mutations of any of the others as a pretext to destroy the lives and liberties of our citizens.

    But never mind eh? the vaccine cavalry is coming, according to you. That will sort everything out. It'll all be over by.....

    Its becoming manifestly clear though that it really, really won;'t. We are in this until enough people decide they have had enough.
    Straight down Corporation nightclub for a big night out with friends once we've had the vaccine (We're back of the queue anyway).
    By then we will be on to the mutant strain that is resistant to the defences created by the vaccine. We need another vaccine, with all-england Tier 4 until then.

    Don;t you understand how this works?
    Once I've had the vaccine - which will probably be through a private chemist (Boots or Lloyds), we should be well into herd immunity for the country.
    I'm not a lockdown absolutist, but now we're moving forward with vaccines I'm content to let the next half a year or so go by with lockdowns whilst the vaccine rolls out.
    Our best shot is to reduce global interactions whilst we wait for vaccines to be rolled out, every interaction increases the chance of a mutation and the vaccine being less effacious.
    Recipients of antibody plasma should reduce interactions to a minimum for a good while after they've received plasma. That seems to be how the mutation occured.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Not sure what a 2 day ban achieves?
    I suspect they may want to get their ducks in a row to allow i) Citizens/residents only to return and ii) appropriate testing/quarantine in place for them on arrival.

    We should have done the same. In March.

    EDIT

    For example:

    https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1341059120040976384?s=20
    Maybe we will yet...in March?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Now that is just trolling.

    EU's €750bn could have helped Britain with Covid, says French commissioner
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/uk-in-covid-freight-ban-talks-with-france-as-cobra-set-to-meet-over-crisis
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if there were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    It is true to say that any conservative candidate who allowed HYUFD anywhere near him would see me vote for the best alternative as I reject his appalling views comprehensively
    Just because he plans on invading Wales (yesterday in a conversation re' Adam Price) and Scotland.
    I did not say we should invade Wales, I said Boris should crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist, not the same thing.

    He can do that by refusing any legal indyref2 at all, however that is only really an issue in Scotland where the SNP lead current polls and if they win a Holyrood majority next year.

    In Wales Plaid are still trailing in a poor third in the latest Senedd polls and are even forecast to lose a seat versus their 2016 total
    'crush whinging nationalists with an iron fist'

    You genuinely need help
    He's giving Essex a bad name.
    He is giving the conservative party a bad name and I am surprised CCHQ have not yet been alerted to his idiotic posts in view of his position in the party
    I have not advocated anything that goes against current party policy.

    You however have openly advocated ousting Boris as party leader on here and said the SNP should be given an indyref2 against official Tory Party and UK government policy, so I would suggest CCHQ would be rather more interested in your posts than in mine
    I don't think going Franco or sending the army into Scotland is the CCHQ position.

    I don't think comparing Scotland with the Catalans is the CCHQ position.

    Tories aren't a dictatorship and are entitled to divert from the party line. But you uniquely spout things that are not the Tory position - like Franco style attacks on democracy - as if they are the Tory position.

    image
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    <

    If you voted Tory nationally last time but vote LD locally I would certainly be interested in persuading you to support the Tories locally too, if you voted LD nationally as well as locally there is little point in bothering

    There's no point wasting canvassing time on the known "Antis" or indeed your firm supporters. If it's a local election, I always concentrated on those with a record of voting - start with the "Probables" and firm them up then look at any new voters who have never been canvassed and any "DK" who voted last time.

    A GE is very different as you say - split votes, many more voters (anything up to double the number) and it's a bigger area so more resources and time needed. A "snap" election was always the biggest challenge in terms of logistics. Local elections are much easier. Ongoing local activity helps a lot in gathering the intelligence to help canvassing and targeted mailing (or social media as I imagine it is these days).
    Yes but HYUFD seems to have nothing but contempt for "swing" voters.

    I've voted Tory in the last five General Elections in a row, including the losing 2005 election, and he views me contemptuously as "not a real Tory who should f##k off and join the Liberal Democrats".

    Odd philosophy. 🤔
    I take the points others have made - but what if you were threatening to **** off and join Mr Farage's lot (whatsoever they might be called)?
    I would have thought the more successful canvassing technique would be to give reasons not to - not say "f##k off then we don't want your kind voting for us anyway".
    I can see, from a canvassers point of view, that there's little benefit to pissing about when someone pretty clearly will not be inclined to vote for you, and hanging about would be wasting your time.

    However, people are not completely stupid, and if the canvasser clearly holds them in utter contempt (and when someone has such contempt for floating voters it seems impossible that they can conceal it very well, even if they try) then for starters if thy were even potentially considering returning to the true path it may put them off, and for seconds it may well harden their attitude considerably such that, locally at any rate, they won't be inclined to consider the party for the future. It need not be many to have an effect at a local level at least, which can swing on small numbers.
    If they have never voted for your party anyway at either a national or local election and you have the records for that you would not bother to canvass them anyway, rule 1 of canvassing is your time needs to be efficiently managed and you focus only on supporters or potential supporters.

    If you canvass them and they tell you they have never voted Tory then you mark them down as against and similarly never bother to canvass them again, they would never 'return to the true path' as they would never have been on it anyway. Plus if they did not vote Tory in 2019 when the Tories won their biggest majority since 1987 you can be pretty sure they would not be voting Tory at any election in the foreseeable future
    Although the Tories have the biggest majority since 1987, John Major in 1992 got more votes than Johnson did in 2019, at a time when the british population was smaller than it is now. But I agree that unless you stumble across a Conservative but Boris Hater in a safe seat, The chances of catching a switcher to conservative post 2019 is going to be very small. Put the effort into keeping the first time tory voters instead.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713


    Not too bad on my patch.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    edited December 2020
    deleted
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    An opening paragraph almost up to the standard of PB header.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/20/trump-white-house-losing-448903
    Donald Trump has never had a week like the week he just had. On the heels of the Supreme Court’s knock-back and the Electoral College’s knockout, some of his most reliable supporters—Mitch McConnell, Vladimir Putin, Newsmax—acknowledged and affirmed the actual fact of the matter. Trump is a loser...
  • And so I have almost completed my last workday of the year, hopefully next year will be significantly more "normal".

    Still, I have got some code written, so that's an achievement in of itself. I didn't think I would get anything done today.
  • We need to build a wall and make Londoners and the South pay for it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Is the BBC trolling Bozo? They're showing Worzel Gummidge just ahead of the PM's news conference.
This discussion has been closed.