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Merry Christmas: rising Covid cases, No Deal Brexit, recession and maybe lockdown – politicalbetting

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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    Its days are numbered.

    Almost nobody under 30 uses cash routinely.
    Are there stats on this? The report in the previous comment doesn't mention it explicitly, but I would be surprised if routine cash usage was near 0% for under 30s.
    Which shows the young aren't that bright. There are good reasons to want cash to continue and people who advocate its demise are advocating for a loss of anonymity and government oversight of every penny they spend.

    Imagine a future where a government for example decides x is bad. They tell all card issuers that they must block all transactions involving x? Think thats a fantasy it is exactly what the american government did to stop people from the US playing online poker. Told banks that they couldnt make or receive payments from online poker sites. It was pretty effective
    You can keep whinging about how the "youth aren't that bright" but it's not going to change anything.

    If you want to be anonymous you can use Bitcoin.

    Either keep up or be left behind I'm afraid.
    You want to give up your freedom thats fine, when they decide you can't spend your money on something you want to do don't go whining
    People buy illegal drugs using electronic money on a daily basis. It's pretty mainstream. Electronic money doesn't stop you doing anything illegal or anonymous.
    Because they haven't cracked down yet doesn't mean they will and people have been prosecuted for using electronic money to buy drugs. It most certainly isn't anonymous. As soon as the police work out applebys apple pies is a front for selling drugs they just have to do a simple database search to find all the customers
    I'm sorry but this just shows a complete lack of understanding of the modern world.

    People buy cryptocurrency and then use *that* to buy drugs.

    Cryptocurrency is anonymous. Do some research.
    Cryptocurrency is not as anonymous as you think it is.

    There are two vectors where you could be deanonymised. Firstly, every transaction is recorded on the blockchain. If you buy 1 BTC from an exchange, and then use it to buy drugs, and the dealer is then caught, they could go to the exchange and say "hey, who did you sell this BTC to".

    Secondly, when you transact, you broadcast on IRC. Those IP addresses could be logged.

    Likewise you can be caught on CCTV spending cash.
    But the difference is of you get caught once spending cash, your whole transaction history can't then just be downloaded.

    The equivalence in my mind is similar to VPNs. It makes it a lot harder to track all users activities, but if you want to find out an individual's usage, they only really need to mess up once and you get their real IP address. And then game over.
    All a VPN does is mean that there's someone (about whom you know nothing) that knows everything about your network traffic. If you want to truly obfuscate what you're doing, you need Tor.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    That article is almost two years old. Two years ago, my phone didn't do contactless payments, and most stores didn't take them.

    Things change.
    As with other things, COVID has massively celebrated the trend. Everyone* now takes contactless payments, for even the smallest transactions.

    *Not managed to find someone who hasn't, since March.
    Still lots of shops/takeaways round here that don’t take cards.
    Interesting - round here, the cheap terminals* are everywhere. Even the shops in the poorest areas.

    *One off payment £25-50, no line fees, fixed transaction fees
    And I think that’s the problem. A lot of shops round here operate on low prices, and very tight margins - too tight for that to work. I suspect quite a lot probably accidentally forget some of the cash they take when it comes to doing tax returns as well.

    £10 will buy you enough meat for a week at the butcher’s shop in Chadsmoor. It wouldn’t buy you a single meal at Starbucks in Kensington. The percentage take of a card fee is correspondingly greater in Chadsmoor.
    Who has a meal at Starbucks?
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,848
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    Its days are numbered.

    Almost nobody under 30 uses cash routinely.
    Are there stats on this? The report in the previous comment doesn't mention it explicitly, but I would be surprised if routine cash usage was near 0% for under 30s.
    Which shows the young aren't that bright. There are good reasons to want cash to continue and people who advocate its demise are advocating for a loss of anonymity and government oversight of every penny they spend.

    Imagine a future where a government for example decides x is bad. They tell all card issuers that they must block all transactions involving x? Think thats a fantasy it is exactly what the american government did to stop people from the US playing online poker. Told banks that they couldnt make or receive payments from online poker sites. It was pretty effective
    You can keep whinging about how the "youth aren't that bright" but it's not going to change anything.

    If you want to be anonymous you can use Bitcoin.

    Either keep up or be left behind I'm afraid.
    You want to give up your freedom thats fine, when they decide you can't spend your money on something you want to do don't go whining
    People buy illegal drugs using electronic money on a daily basis. It's pretty mainstream. Electronic money doesn't stop you doing anything illegal or anonymous.
    Because they haven't cracked down yet doesn't mean they will and people have been prosecuted for using electronic money to buy drugs. It most certainly isn't anonymous. As soon as the police work out applebys apple pies is a front for selling drugs they just have to do a simple database search to find all the customers
    I'm sorry but this just shows a complete lack of understanding of the modern world.

    People buy cryptocurrency and then use *that* to buy drugs.

    Cryptocurrency is anonymous. Do some research.
    Cryptocurrency is not as anonymous as you think it is.

    There are two vectors where you could be deanonymised. Firstly, every transaction is recorded on the blockchain. If you buy 1 BTC from an exchange, and then use it to buy drugs, and the dealer is then caught, they could go to the exchange and say "hey, who did you sell this BTC to".

    Secondly, when you transact, you broadcast on IRC. Those IP addresses could be logged.

    Likewise you can be caught on CCTV spending cash.
    But the difference is of you get caught once spending cash, your whole transaction history can't then just be downloaded.

    The equivalence in my mind is similar to VPNs. It makes it a lot harder to track all users activities, but if you want to find out an individual's usage, they only really need to mess up once and you get their real IP address. And then game over.
    All a VPN does is mean that there's someone (about whom you know nothing) that knows everything about your network traffic. If you want to truly obfuscate what you're doing, you need Tor.
    Interestingly you can't access political betting on Tor, though I suspect more a vanilla oddity that PB
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    Its days are numbered.

    Almost nobody under 30 uses cash routinely.
    Are there stats on this? The report in the previous comment doesn't mention it explicitly, but I would be surprised if routine cash usage was near 0% for under 30s.
    Which shows the young aren't that bright. There are good reasons to want cash to continue and people who advocate its demise are advocating for a loss of anonymity and government oversight of every penny they spend.

    Imagine a future where a government for example decides x is bad. They tell all card issuers that they must block all transactions involving x? Think thats a fantasy it is exactly what the american government did to stop people from the US playing online poker. Told banks that they couldnt make or receive payments from online poker sites. It was pretty effective
    You can keep whinging about how the "youth aren't that bright" but it's not going to change anything.

    If you want to be anonymous you can use Bitcoin.

    Either keep up or be left behind I'm afraid.
    You want to give up your freedom thats fine, when they decide you can't spend your money on something you want to do don't go whining
    People buy illegal drugs using electronic money on a daily basis. It's pretty mainstream. Electronic money doesn't stop you doing anything illegal or anonymous.
    Because they haven't cracked down yet doesn't mean they will and people have been prosecuted for using electronic money to buy drugs. It most certainly isn't anonymous. As soon as the police work out applebys apple pies is a front for selling drugs they just have to do a simple database search to find all the customers
    I'm sorry but this just shows a complete lack of understanding of the modern world.

    People buy cryptocurrency and then use *that* to buy drugs.

    Cryptocurrency is anonymous. Do some research.
    Cryptocurrency is not as anonymous as you think it is.

    There are two vectors where you could be deanonymised. Firstly, every transaction is recorded on the blockchain. If you buy 1 BTC from an exchange, and then use it to buy drugs, and the dealer is then caught, they could go to the exchange and say "hey, who did you sell this BTC to".

    Secondly, when you transact, you broadcast on IRC. Those IP addresses could be logged.

    Likewise you can be caught on CCTV spending cash.
    But the difference is of you get caught once spending cash, your whole transaction history can't then just be downloaded.

    The equivalence in my mind is similar to VPNs. It makes it a lot harder to track all users activities, but if you want to find out an individual's usage, they only really need to mess up once and you get their real IP address. And then game over.
    All a VPN does is mean that there's someone (about whom you know nothing) that knows everything about your network traffic. If you want to truly obfuscate what you're doing, you need Tor.
    For that aren't you relying on the exit nodes being safe?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    That article is almost two years old. Two years ago, my phone didn't do contactless payments, and most stores didn't take them.

    Things change.
    As with other things, COVID has massively celebrated the trend. Everyone* now takes contactless payments, for even the smallest transactions.

    *Not managed to find someone who hasn't, since March.
    Still lots of shops/takeaways round here that don’t take cards.
    Interesting - round here, the cheap terminals* are everywhere. Even the shops in the poorest areas.

    *One off payment £25-50, no line fees, fixed transaction fees
    And I think that’s the problem. A lot of shops round here operate on low prices, and very tight margins - too tight for that to work. I suspect quite a lot probably accidentally forget some of the cash they take when it comes to doing tax returns as well.

    £10 will buy you enough meat for a week at the butcher’s shop in Chadsmoor. It wouldn’t buy you a single meal at Starbucks in Kensington. The percentage take of a card fee is correspondingly greater in Chadsmoor.
    Who has a meal at Starbucks?
    Somebody who has been working hard all day at the National Archives, finds that Tesco and the newsagents are out of sandwiches and that every single restaurant is full on a cold and wet night.

    Been there, done that, got the T-shirt and the notice of bankruptcy.

    I tried not to think the price would buy me three decent meals in Aber, or of the time I was told my food costs wouldn’t be funded as ‘a meal there is a meal you’re not having here.’
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    Pagan2 said:

    Interestingly you can't access political betting on Tor, though I suspect more a vanilla oddity that PB

    Tor exit node blocklists are ubiquitous
  • Options
    Sorry if already posted, can't see it. Bit of a cock-up at Betfair Customer Services. They're lucky Trump isn't going to win or they'd be in a mess.

    https://twitter.com/punterspunt/status/1337814365685346305
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,848
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    Its days are numbered.

    Almost nobody under 30 uses cash routinely.
    Are there stats on this? The report in the previous comment doesn't mention it explicitly, but I would be surprised if routine cash usage was near 0% for under 30s.
    Which shows the young aren't that bright. There are good reasons to want cash to continue and people who advocate its demise are advocating for a loss of anonymity and government oversight of every penny they spend.

    Imagine a future where a government for example decides x is bad. They tell all card issuers that they must block all transactions involving x? Think thats a fantasy it is exactly what the american government did to stop people from the US playing online poker. Told banks that they couldnt make or receive payments from online poker sites. It was pretty effective
    You can keep whinging about how the "youth aren't that bright" but it's not going to change anything.

    If you want to be anonymous you can use Bitcoin.

    Either keep up or be left behind I'm afraid.
    You want to give up your freedom thats fine, when they decide you can't spend your money on something you want to do don't go whining
    People buy illegal drugs using electronic money on a daily basis. It's pretty mainstream. Electronic money doesn't stop you doing anything illegal or anonymous.
    Because they haven't cracked down yet doesn't mean they will and people have been prosecuted for using electronic money to buy drugs. It most certainly isn't anonymous. As soon as the police work out applebys apple pies is a front for selling drugs they just have to do a simple database search to find all the customers
    I'm sorry but this just shows a complete lack of understanding of the modern world.

    People buy cryptocurrency and then use *that* to buy drugs.

    Cryptocurrency is anonymous. Do some research.
    Cryptocurrency is not as anonymous as you think it is.

    There are two vectors where you could be deanonymised. Firstly, every transaction is recorded on the blockchain. If you buy 1 BTC from an exchange, and then use it to buy drugs, and the dealer is then caught, they could go to the exchange and say "hey, who did you sell this BTC to".

    Secondly, when you transact, you broadcast on IRC. Those IP addresses could be logged.

    Likewise you can be caught on CCTV spending cash.
    But the difference is of you get caught once spending cash, your whole transaction history can't then just be downloaded.

    The equivalence in my mind is similar to VPNs. It makes it a lot harder to track all users activities, but if you want to find out an individual's usage, they only really need to mess up once and you get their real IP address. And then game over.
    All a VPN does is mean that there's someone (about whom you know nothing) that knows everything about your network traffic. If you want to truly obfuscate what you're doing, you need Tor.
    For that aren't you relying on the exit nodes being safe?
    While there has been many state sponsored exit nodes put in place for finding out what people are up to it does require a lot more work and trying to use it as evidence becomes a lot harder when trying to link exit traffic to a specific user. The exception being non https traffic
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Thanks. I hope you're right.

    Agreed on AZN. They fired the arrow up into the air.. and missed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    If they have to be several weeks apart, and do not store well, it makes a lot more sense to use the dose on different patients. It will speed things up.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    The evidence is that the first dose alone gives you pretty good protection, so much better to do it this way. If a third of people don't get the second dose, and another third wait 6 to 8 weeks, I doubt it'll affect efficacy that much.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited December 2020
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    I would love to think surely not, but the government response in so many areas has been to go with a path that depends on everything going as predicted, then they end up with a delay and appear to have massively overpromised.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    That's not what was reported.

    Stated on BBC News several times that first 800,000 doses are for 400,000 people.

    ie They aren't chancing that no more arrives.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    If they have to be several weeks apart, and do not store well, it makes a lot more sense to use the dose on different patients. It will speed things up.
    It would be madness to do anything else.

    So, I expect they'll do something else.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    Yep, that is the plan. Someone has faith in JIT logistics over Christmas 🤔
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,095
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
  • Options
    One big solar flare (see Carrington Event) could make some interesting choices for a means of exchange.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    Foxy said:

    Yep, that is the plan. Someone has faith in JIT logistics over Christmas 🤔

    The Minister for vaccines is an idiot
  • Options
    News from the frontline of the pub trade as they battle to stay in business. No doubt @Cyclefree will sympathise.

    "The last nine months have been without a doubt the hardest of my ten-year hospitality career and it will have been the same for everyone else involved in the business.

    If you live in a Tier 2 area, please please please go and support your local pub or restaurant. The situation really is desperate so even if you have to have a meal and you don’t want to, just suck it up because the pressure these managers and landlords are feeling is immense."

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/shafted-shafted-and-shafted-again-a-pub-managers-story/
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,277
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    The issue is obviously complex but clearly it’s a “punching up, punching down” thing. I think the concept of “Civic Nationalism” an absolute oxymoron with no basis in reality or history whatsoever. However if Welsh and Scottish Nationalism are a reaction against English domination of the Union (and let’s face it, that’s what they are they are) then I have no problem with it. It’s punching up against a stronger/bigger party. What’s English Nationalism punching up against? The EU. And I’m not getting into that argument.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    edited December 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    Yep, that is the plan. Someone has faith in JIT logistics over Christmas 🤔

    The Minister for vaccines is an idiot
    With this government, it’s quicker to list the ministers that are not idiots.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    LadyG said:

    Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.

    The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum

    It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
    Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.

    That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
    Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?

    This is why many indy voters (myself included) would like to know what the SNP Plan B is.

    Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
    Plan B is to take Westminster to the courts and then hold an "advisory" referendum if the courts rule against. But crucially not to mention this before Plan A is rejected.

    The whole reason Sturgeon has got support for independence so high is the slowly, slowly don't frighten the horses approach. The "Yes" vote is very soft. It currently has a lot of people who are attracted by Sturgeon's "reasonableness".

    If Sturgeon lays out the whole plan step by step to a wildcat referendum then that does two things
    A ) It gives Johnson every reason to refuse consent for a Westminster sanctioned referendum
    B ) it strips her of the aura of restraint.

    She is leading non-dedicated Yessers step by step towards voting for Indy in a wildcat referendum. that can only be done with blinkers on otherwise they will shy away from the ballot box.
    She may go to court. But the court will say No. It's a matter reserved for Westminster. That's where her cunning plan crashes to a halt.

    The Tories will advise their voters to boycott an illegal referendum. Maybe Labour too. And the LDs. Result chaos, and a useless, incendiary, non-binding vote which makes the SNP look very dodgy and has no legal power.

    Sturgeon's plan is to create a consensus for independence. She's nearly there, having converted a clear No majority to 55% or so Yes. At that point it doesn't matter what shenanigans the Tories throw in, they will be seen as such. Irredentist Unionists are about 20% of the Scottish population and are the bedrock of the Scottish Conservative vote. The other 35% who voted No in the last referendum is in play. The other point to be aware of if that most Scots are nationalists. If they support the Union, it is by consent and in what they perceive as Scotland's interest. Johnson is following exactly the wrong playbook on this.

    However, I do agree the SNP are capable of screwing this up big time. I just wouldn't rely on them doing so.
    The hard core Unionist vote is 35%. When you poll people about how much they support indy/union the 25% Are Yes till they die and 35% are No all day and everyday
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    Chris Patten is a personal hero of mine but I totally disagree with him on the EU and his rhetoric on it.

    It just seems to be one of those subjects that can drive British people crazy, and to both extremes.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    That's not what was reported.

    Stated on BBC News several times that first 800,000 doses are for 400,000 people.

    ie They aren't chancing that no more arrives.
    Thats not what I have seen, but wouldn't be daft.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,330
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    Why would you keep the vaccine in the freezer for three weeks? Far better to give 800,000 their first dose. Plenty of evidence for reasonable immunity after 10 days from that alone. Then re jab in three weeks with the continuously arriving vaccine supply. Classic just in time operation.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    edited December 2020
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    The issue is obviously complex but clearly it’s a “punching up, punching down” thing. I think the concept of “Civic Nationalism” an absolute oxymoron with no basis in reality or history whatsoever. However if Welsh and Scottish Nationalism are a reaction against English domination of the Union (and let’s face it, that’s what they are they are) then I have no problem with it. It’s punching up against a stronger/bigger party. What’s English Nationalism punching up against? The EU. And I’m not getting into that argument.
    Well, bluntly they seem to me to be equivalent and the negativity is largely about anti-English xenophobia.

    But again, that’s me as a Welshman who was born in England and lives there now.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Brexiteer whining has started.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1337806421820395535

    Sorry pal, you own this now.

    There is dynamic alignment baked into USMCA (regarding US minimum wage and intellectual property legislation), so it's also factually inaccurate.
    Try using Canadian dollars even an inch over the border. Whereas, in Canada, the US Dollar is accepted virtually everywhere. Just the way it is.
    I suspect thats like the southern irish used to take british pounds happily as long as it was on a 1 british pound is treated like an irish pound. Instant 10% mark up for them. 1 canadian dollar is 0.78 us dollars so on a 1 to 1 basis they are making 22% extra
    I never leave the house with cash anyway, so I'm not sure that an argument over notes and coins is that interesting any more.
    In britain at least that would make you unusual
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/mar/07/britons-use-cash-everyday-payments-report-finds
    That article is almost two years old. Two years ago, my phone didn't do contactless payments, and most stores didn't take them.

    Things change.
    As with other things, COVID has massively celebrated the trend. Everyone* now takes contactless payments, for even the smallest transactions.

    *Not managed to find someone who hasn't, since March.
    Still lots of shops/takeaways round here that don’t take cards.
    Interesting - round here, the cheap terminals* are everywhere. Even the shops in the poorest areas.

    *One off payment £25-50, no line fees, fixed transaction fees
    And I think that’s the problem. A lot of shops round here operate on low prices, and very tight margins - too tight for that to work. I suspect quite a lot probably accidentally forget some of the cash they take when it comes to doing tax returns as well.

    £10 will buy you enough meat for a week at the butcher’s shop in Chadsmoor. It wouldn’t buy you a single meal at Starbucks in Kensington. The percentage take of a card fee is correspondingly greater in Chadsmoor.
    That's a £25 one-off to buy the terminal.

    Then it's something like 1.75% of a transaction.

    So 17.5p on a £10 transaction. And the fees are getting better due to competition....
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,848
    agingjb2 said:

    One big solar flare (see Carrington Event) could make some interesting choices for a means of exchange.

    We already had a dry run, be interesting to hear from people who's sole bank account was tsb what they think of a cashless society
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    It wasn't me but I have to confess to having thoughts in that direction.

    I hope I am wrong - I am very much encouraged by @Foxy's comments.
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2020
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    Partly because Wales and Scotland have yet to secede from a Britain often dominated by England, which may eventually come with Brexit, so some of the less broad-minded aspects of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist movements are often glossed over as details of independence movements from the traditionally dominant power.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    Scott_xP said:
    Our local bus gives OAPs a discount before the concessionary rate starts (9.30am) but you have to use cash to get it, because the bus card reader can only handle one card per transaction. You have to use the concessionary bus pass card in order to get the discount, but then you can't use a card to pay.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,330
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    That's not what was reported.

    Stated on BBC News several times that first 800,000 doses are for 400,000 people.

    ie They aren't chancing that no more arrives.
    Nope - the media can’t handle the idea that it’s two doses, it screws their heads. There is no way you would allocate half the 800,000 for people in three weeks time.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    We could do with something like France's CRS.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    Sturgeon seems far too weighed down by the actions of England and media reaction to do differently. Indeed she lead the idiotic "rush to normal" in the summer by having schools go back full time in August. That is a main driver of the mess we are in now.

    After actually acting differently in enacting a decent tiering system she's went and reduced tiers far too early.

    On the whole politicians seem to only react to events, rather than acting in advance on the anticipation of what is to come. This is probably because it is a lot easier to explain to the public that you are acting to deal with what has happened or is happening. Saying we "must do X in order to avoid Y" is a hard case to make when some sizeable chunk of the populace will talk about the money wasted on X when Y doesn't happen.

    When the big one* comes, and COVID-19 is not it, we will not avoid it, as far too many people will be doubting what is happening even as the catastrophe unfolds before their eyes.

    * Insert your favourite mass extinction event.
    I said at the start of the year that Covid would be like Millennium Bug on steroids for contrarian wanker takes. People would be doubting the necessity of taking action even as thousands died every day.

    I have hated being right.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I am not part of the vaccine programme, so relying on info via the jungle telegraph.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
    Well you are half right. At this rate it'd take over a year to vaccinate everyone, so a considerable expansion in capacity is needed.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    Yep, that is the plan. Someone has faith in JIT logistics over Christmas 🤔
    If you get the second dose a couple of weeks late, I doubt it will have any meaningful impact of efficacy.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    glw said:
    What's wrong with people wearing masks?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
    Well you are half right. At this rate it'd take over a year to vaccinate everyone, so a considerable expansion in capacity is needed.
    Well, yes. But this is where we are now. One would hope we'll get better over time, especially as vaccine availability improves.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
    Well you are half right. At this rate it'd take over a year to vaccinate everyone, so a considerable expansion in capacity is needed.
    It will ramp up if an easier to handle vaccine such as the AZN or Sputnik were licensed. Our prof of Virology surprised me by being quite complimentary about the Sputnik. Indeed the AZN/Sputnik combination trial is quite an interesting one, as different vectors in each.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
    Well you are half right. At this rate it'd take over a year to vaccinate everyone, so a considerable expansion in capacity is needed.
    Well, yes. But this is where we are now. One would hope we'll get better over time, especially as vaccine availability improves.
    Yeah, I am reasonably confident it can be scaled up. Only a factor of a couple more than the annual flu vaccination program.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    Partly because Wales and Scotland have yet to secede from a Britain often dominated by England, which may eventually come with Brexit, so some of the less broad-minded aspects of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist movements are often glossed over as details of independence movements from the traditionally dominant power.
    Well, we get lots of ‘Little Englander’ comments, but none about ‘Little Scotlanders’ (except from Malc, of course).

    As though people who prize Englishness are insular and arrogant and useless, while everyone who prizes Scottishness - as a smaller, poorer, more remote country with no meaningful direct lines of communication to another country - is outward looking and bold.

    Which is bollocks on a whole bunch of levels.

    (And if you want *real* insularity, try the Pwllheli branch of Plaid Cymru.)
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    Scott_xP said:

    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200

    The New Party?

    To save British retail by buying all the shorts?
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2020
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    Partly because Wales and Scotland have yet to secede from a Britain often dominated by England, which may eventually come with Brexit, so some of the less broad-minded aspects of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist movements are often glossed over as details of independence movements from the traditionally dominant power.
    Well, we get lots of ‘Little Englander’ comments, but none about ‘Little Scotlanders’ (except from Malc, of course).

    As though people who prize Englishness are insular and arrogant and useless, while everyone who prizes Scottishness - as a smaller, poorer, more remote country with no meaningful direct lines of communication to another country - is outward looking and bold.

    Which is bollocks on a whole bunch of levels.

    (And if you want *real* insularity, try the Pwllheli branch of Plaid Cymru.)
    As mentioned, though, these comparisons will often be ignored until or unless Scotland and Wales become independent ; the simple power equation of things ensures that.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
    Well you are half right. At this rate it'd take over a year to vaccinate everyone, so a considerable expansion in capacity is needed.
    It will ramp up if an easier to handle vaccine such as the AZN or Sputnik were licensed. Our prof of Virology surprised me by being quite complimentary about the Sputnik. Indeed the AZN/Sputnik combination trial is quite an interesting one, as different vectors in each.
    Where are we with AZN? Is it now with MHRA? Or have the company/oxford not submitted data yet? There's been a paper in Lancet.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Really? It does depend on how you define nationalism but the wars of Aelfred and Aethelstan, for example, could be considered nationalistic.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200

    The New Party?

    To save British retail by buying all the shorts?
    He's about to upload 10,000 photos of manhole covers he has taken pictures of in last year. It will be the world's largest collection of such images.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    agingjb2 said:

    One big solar flare (see Carrington Event) could make some interesting choices for a means of exchange.

    Hey, don't blame me.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    Yep, that is the plan. Someone has faith in JIT logistics over Christmas 🤔
    Right, so you do have concerns then?!
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    Hadn't noticed an excess of praise for being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist tbh.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    Alistair said:

    FF43 said:

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:

    LadyG said:

    Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.

    The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum

    It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
    Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.

    That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
    Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?

    This is why many indy voters (myself included) would like to know what the SNP Plan B is.

    Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
    Plan B is to take Westminster to the courts and then hold an "advisory" referendum if the courts rule against. But crucially not to mention this before Plan A is rejected.

    The whole reason Sturgeon has got support for independence so high is the slowly, slowly don't frighten the horses approach. The "Yes" vote is very soft. It currently has a lot of people who are attracted by Sturgeon's "reasonableness".

    If Sturgeon lays out the whole plan step by step to a wildcat referendum then that does two things
    A ) It gives Johnson every reason to refuse consent for a Westminster sanctioned referendum
    B ) it strips her of the aura of restraint.

    She is leading non-dedicated Yessers step by step towards voting for Indy in a wildcat referendum. that can only be done with blinkers on otherwise they will shy away from the ballot box.
    She may go to court. But the court will say No. It's a matter reserved for Westminster. That's where her cunning plan crashes to a halt.

    The Tories will advise their voters to boycott an illegal referendum. Maybe Labour too. And the LDs. Result chaos, and a useless, incendiary, non-binding vote which makes the SNP look very dodgy and has no legal power.

    Sturgeon's plan is to create a consensus for independence. She's nearly there, having converted a clear No majority to 55% or so Yes. At that point it doesn't matter what shenanigans the Tories throw in, they will be seen as such. Irredentist Unionists are about 20% of the Scottish population and are the bedrock of the Scottish Conservative vote. The other 35% who voted No in the last referendum is in play. The other point to be aware of if that most Scots are nationalists. If they support the Union, it is by consent and in what they perceive as Scotland's interest. Johnson is following exactly the wrong playbook on this.

    However, I do agree the SNP are capable of screwing this up big time. I just wouldn't rely on them doing so.
    The hard core Unionist vote is 35%. When you poll people about how much they support indy/union the 25% Are Yes till they die and 35% are No all day and everyday
    20% or so of people in Scotland self-identify as British; the rest as Scottish or both Scottish and British. Sturgeon won't get 80% to support independence; she needs probably 60% to indicate a clear majority, which she is in spitting distance of. At which point a chunk of people who would otherwise support the Union will say, just get on with it.

    It boils down to how you expect those figures to change over a referendum campaign or an independence thwarted by English politicians that don't have Scotland's interests at heart - against the possibility of the SNP screwing up by jumping the gun or getting over-cocky.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    Scott_xP said:

    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200

    The New Party?

    To save British retail by buying all the shorts?
    He's about to upload 10,000 photos of manhole covers he has taken pictures of in last year. It will be the world's largest collection of such images.
    Now I am imagining a parade of New Party members. Wearing manhole covers.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.

    WTAF is a mung bean?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202

    The New Party?

    To save British retail by buying all the shorts?

    https://twitter.com/Maomentum_/status/1337839480317890562
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,472
    Brexit stockpiling is causing 10-mile lorry queues and delays of up to five hours in Calais, it has emerged, as hopes of a trade deal fade.

    Sources close to the president of the Hauts-de-France region said there had been 50% more heavy goods vehicles on the approach roads to the French port and Eurotunnel in the past three weeks.

    “November and December are always busy months, but extreme stockpiling because businesses are trying to get goods into the UK before 1 January is the main cause,” the source said.

    “Normally we have about 6,000 trucks, but now it is about 9,000. It shows the extreme of the consequences of Brexit whether there is a deal or not. Trucks are having to slow down all along the A16 back to Dunkirk with delays of up to 17km.”
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,848

    Scott_xP said:

    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200

    The New Party?

    To save British retail by buying all the shorts?
    He's about to upload 10,000 photos of manhole covers he has taken pictures of in last year. It will be the world's largest collection of such images.
    Hmmm he is unveiling the burning pink party as the new socialist vehicle?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.

    He's looking like a comedian whose one joke isn't funny anymore.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    Scott_xP said:

    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200

    Campaign for the liberation of occupied Western Sahara?

    https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1337358481272299520?s=19
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited December 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Brexit stockpiling is causing 10-mile lorry queues and delays of up to five hours in Calais, it has emerged, as hopes of a trade deal fade.

    Sources close to the president of the Hauts-de-France region said there had been 50% more heavy goods vehicles on the approach roads to the French port and Eurotunnel in the past three weeks.

    “November and December are always busy months, but extreme stockpiling because businesses are trying to get goods into the UK before 1 January is the main cause,” the source said.

    “Normally we have about 6,000 trucks, but now it is about 9,000. It shows the extreme of the consequences of Brexit whether there is a deal or not. Trucks are having to slow down all along the A16 back to Dunkirk with delays of up to 17km.”

    Can you attach the link?

    If it is Brexit related, why is the same being seen in US ports?
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.

    WTAF is a mung bean?
    Something for which I have no use.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    But more wars than caused by religion?
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.

    WTAF is a mung bean?
    A pulse, one my Mum likes cooking, but I find a bit eurgh.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    Not so much as the Moderates are praying!

    Corbyn stayed Labour throughout Blairism and Iraq. He will stay Labour.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.

    WTAF is a mung bean?
    A pulse, one my Mum likes cooking, but I find a bit eurgh.
    Well, its fame has never come my way.

    My lack of knowledge of pulses suggests I have no heart.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    But more wars than caused by religion?
    Yup.

    You can make a case that more wars have started because of religion, but in terms of casualties are much higher in the wars of nationalism.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    Carthage and Rome?
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    Carthage and Rome?
    Well I didn't want to embarrass Morris Dancer further.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    But more wars than caused by religion?
    Yup.

    You can make a case that more wars have started because of religion, but in terms of casualties are much higher in the wars of nationalism.
    Quality overe quantity? Of course with the two world wars those fought because of nationalism will surely have caused more casualties. But that wasn't the claim.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,340
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    Partly because Wales and Scotland have yet to secede from a Britain often dominated by England, which may eventually come with Brexit, so some of the less broad-minded aspects of the Scottish and Welsh nationalist movements are often glossed over as details of independence movements from the traditionally dominant power.
    Well, we get lots of ‘Little Englander’ comments, but none about ‘Little Scotlanders’ (except from Malc, of course).

    As though people who prize Englishness are insular and arrogant and useless, while everyone who prizes Scottishness - as a smaller, poorer, more remote country with no meaningful direct lines of communication to another country - is outward looking and bold.

    Which is bollocks on a whole bunch of levels.

    (And if you want *real* insularity, try the Pwllheli branch of Plaid Cymru.)
    In an era when Labour in Wales is manned by nincompoops, it is a crying shame that the LDs are irrelevant, save for the fragrant Kirsty, and Plaid are so unfortunately, absolutely chaotic.

    I have voted Plaid at Assembly Elections, only for them to disappoint by attempting to make RT First Minister in a rainbow collation with Hamilton. Now Labour may be piss-poor, but RT would have ratcheted the incompetence to sub-Drakeford levels.

    That said if Plaid offered me an Independent Wales inside the EU, post Scottish Independence, I would chew Adam Price's arm off. English Unionist by birth, heading down the road of insular Welsh Nationalism.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Johnson claims he isn't a mung bean muncher.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1337840474086891520

    Its a view.

    WTAF is a mung bean?
    A pulse, one my Mum likes cooking, but I find a bit eurgh.
    Well, its fame has never come my way.

    My lack of knowledge of pulses suggests I have no heart.
    Most NATCO pulses are great, but if you want to try Mung Beans you can buy it from here.

    https://www.waitrose.com/ecom/products/natco-mung-beans/617112-87551-87552
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited December 2020
    Jezza's big announcement is going to be something shit like he is launching "The Socialist Allotment Holders Association"..or plans to teach school kids at the history of man-hole covers.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    edited December 2020

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    But more wars than caused by religion?
    Yup.

    You can make a case that more wars have started because of religion, but in terms of casualties are much higher in the wars of nationalism.
    Or you can also argue religion has been an excuse to start wars that were mainly nationalistic in character.

    From your list, the Bar Kokhba revolt springs to mind.

    Or the Spanish Reconquista.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    Wait, so 800,000 people are getting the first round, rather than 400,000 getting two rounds? A recipe for disaster.
    Yep, that is the plan. Someone has faith in JIT logistics over Christmas 🤔
    Right, so you do have concerns then?!
    Not really. Inevitably a programme starts fairly slowly, and gains speed as people get more used to the process.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,330

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    On vaccines I'm starting to agree with @TSE that HMG will merrily f*ck-up rapid vaccine roll-out. A few thousand will happen before Christmas, and then it'll fizzle out.

    That's not a political point - still less a Brexit one - it's just the public sector and civil service are really shit at rapid complex large-scale programmes.

    They're good at policy papers and media angles - not delivery.

    Nah it is being handled by the Civil Service, there is a designated provider in each site, usually a CCG. Leicester started today, held up a few days by the change to protocols caused by the anaphylaxis issue.
    Objectively, how confident are you - honestly?
    Pretty confident. The first 800 000 will be used up by next week. Let's hope the second dose arrives on time.

    Organising vaccines is bread and butter work for CCGs. I think the AZN vaccine may take a bit longer, the data was pretty crap, mixing too many groups, and using meningococcal vaccine as the control was a bit odd too. Even vaccines for other conditions prime the immune system, so a poor control according to our virologist.
    800,000 used up this week...

    Interesting, because there was SOMEONE on this board who refused to believe we'd get to 100,000 a week by New Year.

    Who could that be?
    I did not refuse to believe. I simply questioned the optimism.
    Well you are half right. At this rate it'd take over a year to vaccinate everyone, so a considerable expansion in capacity is needed.
    It will ramp up if an easier to handle vaccine such as the AZN or Sputnik were licensed. Our prof of Virology surprised me by being quite complimentary about the Sputnik. Indeed the AZN/Sputnik combination trial is quite an interesting one, as different vectors in each.
    Where are we with AZN? Is it now with MHRA? Or have the company/oxford not submitted data yet? There's been a paper in Lancet.
    It’s with the mhra, and has been submitting rolling data. I had hoped it would be approved this side of Christmas, but foxy’s colleague may indicate that may not happen.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    Foxy said:

    Not so much as the Moderates are praying!

    Corbyn stayed Labour throughout Blairism and Iraq. He will stay Labour.
    Quite. Which partly explains why Starmer took as hard a line as he could with Corbyn - he knows the man is going nowhere, so he can be kept on at arms length without risking a split.
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    Plus there's some crossover in the wars.

    Take Ireland, religious war or nationalism writ large as Ireland is invaded via a Papul Bull and mass immigration (or the great replacement) in the North sees a country torn asunder.

    I see the IRA as Christian freedom fighters.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,277
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?
    The issue is obviously complex but clearly it’s a “punching up, punching down” thing. I think the concept of “Civic Nationalism” an absolute oxymoron with no basis in reality or history whatsoever. However if Welsh and Scottish Nationalism are a reaction against English domination of the Union (and let’s face it, that’s what they are they are) then I have no problem with it. It’s punching up against a stronger/bigger party. What’s English Nationalism punching up against? The EU. And I’m not getting into that argument.
    Well, bluntly they seem to me to be equivalent and the negativity is largely about anti-English xenophobia.

    But again, that’s me as a Welshman who was born in England and lives there now.
    All nationalism (despite what UnionDivvie and David Aaranovich might say) are rooted in “the other” ie “we are this, we are not that”. Take the other, the “that” out of the equation (the English in the case of Celtic Nationalism) and there is no reason for a nation or nationalism. It’s all xenophobic to a degree but if your “this” is being subsumed by the other’s “that” then there is justification for the xenophobia.

    I’m a municipalist. Any jurisdictional unit bigger than a town (the “polis” in political) and it’s hinterland is suspect in my view. Counties at most. Classical Greece and Renaissance Italy had it right. Anything bigger than that needs destructive myths to create sufficient unity to keep it going.
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    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    Howzabout Imperialism, or is that a variation on nationalism?
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978
    Pestons view...

    there are only two possible outcomes tomorrow: a decision to keep talking beyond the latest deadline; or a decision to end negotiations and prepare for no deal.

    ..I'm putting money on a deal being announced tomorrow 🤣
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Speaking as a Welshman, why is ‘English nationalist’ a term of abuse when being a Scottish or Welsh Nationalist is seen as positively praiseworthy?

    They are all bad
    Nationalism has caused even more wars than religion with none of the benefits.
    I find that hard to believe given that it only emerged relatively recently.
    Nationalism has existed for centuries.

    I could cite the wars of Scottish independence that started in the 13th Century.

    Or The Uprising of Asen and Peter from the 12th century.

    Or Qin's Wars of Unification from the 200 BCs.

    There's also the Jewish-Roman wars.

    I could cite many more.
    It hasn't always been as dominant compared to other ideologies as in the last number of centuries though, not consistently.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,847

    Scott_xP said:

    Do not go gentle into that good night.
    Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
    Rage, rage against the dying of the light...

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1337830166098227200

    The New Party?

    To save British retail by buying all the shorts?
    He's about to upload 10,000 photos of manhole covers he has taken pictures of in last year. It will be the world's largest collection of such images.
    This year's batch of damson jam ready?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,340

    Jezza's big announcement is going to be something shit like he is launching "The Socialist Allotment Holders Association"..

    Surely starting his own Party to split the Labour vote, thereby ensuring another four years of Johnson.

    Facilitating Johnson Governments is very much Corbyn's forte.
This discussion has been closed.