The Tories are failing to win over younger voters.
Wonder why that might be. Age is very much the faultline in politics right now, far more than it has been. Certainly, I find myself falling into the equivalent of the immigration trap by going "Yeah well, the oldies I know are okay but those coffin dodgers from Kent really are the reason this country is a mess". Not edifying really but it's easy to dislike "the other". Usually happens after reading some of the unhinged posting on here from certain persons of an older persuasion.
The Tories are failing to win over younger voters.
Maybe this intersects strongly with London voting patterns. Tories are toast here in the Capital - it's really hard to find them en masse in London. Whatever happens in the rest of the country, the Tories will be down to 10 seats or lower in the Capital.
Maybe it's my bubble but it's just a felling I have...
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
I can think of an English speaking city that might not be a bad fit.
Too cold and dark
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City of London is not Paris or Amsterdam or Edinburgh. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
But the Spanish Government at the time wasn't run by the Insane Clown Posse.
BoZo is the key.
Just as he excites the Little Englanders, the Scots fucking hate him.
Geninely something that people on here don't get. As I mentioned earlier Johnson is so far away from the legacy-of-the-covenanters channeling Middle Scotland as to be almost totally alien. He is UTTERLY HATED. If he goes and is replaced by someone vaguely serious some of that poison gets taken out, but the damage he has done to the union may not be repairable with a new face if they're just another posh English bloke who doesn't get Scottish political feeling (Sunak would be bad, Gove might actually stand a chance).
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
I can think of an English speaking city that might not be a bad fit.
Too cold and dark
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City is not France. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Ending the hegenomy of london and the southeast as the place to go if you want to work while initially it will be painful is a long term gain for the rest of the country in my view. I now work from home for the forseeable future as we no longer have an office building so instead of having to live in the south east am considering moving home and therefore will be injecting my salary into the south west economy which I am sure will be welcome
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
But the Spanish Government at the time wasn't run by the Insane Clown Posse.
BoZo is the key.
Just as he excites the Little Englanders, the Scots fucking hate him.
Geninely something that people on here don't get. As I mentioned earlier Johnson is so far away from the legacy-of-the-covenanters channeling Middle Scotland as to be almost totally alien. He is UTTERLY HATED. If he goes and is replaced by someone vaguely serious some of that poison gets taken out, but the damage he has done to the union may not be repairable with a new face if they're just another posh English bloke who doesn't get Scottish political feeling (Sunak would be bad, Gove might actually stand a chance).
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
As everyone seems to banging on about what will happen in the event of No Deal Brexit, can I point out that I did an excellent video on this a few years ago:
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
Counterfactual...what if they DON'T boycott it?
Counterfactual what if most people in the UK are happy with scotland staying or going and don't actually care much either way?
Demands that Brexiteers apologise and repent their sins...
You're 'not sure' you agree with that, eh?
It's bollocks in any case. I remember Alistair Meeks responding very negatively to people apologising for their Brexit sins, and don't see why anyone else driven so emtional by Brexit would respond any more reasonably to someone seeking repentence.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
I can think of an English speaking city that might not be a bad fit.
Too cold and dark
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City is not France. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Or New York. Or Paris. Or Berlin. Or any big city anywhere
And yet, people will still live in cities, I have friends who were loving WFH in Lockdown 1, now they fucking hate it. They're bored, they want business lunches, they want to go for drinks after work, they've got kids screaming as they try to type, they want office romance, they want office parties, they want to walk in handsome streets, they want to stay in a great big world city with art, restaurants, world class sport, beautiful parks, nearby airports, lots of other interesting people.
What you say applies, I reckon, to much older workers with grown up kids and big houses. A day or two in the office will be just fine for them. maybe even the hotel stays.
But young people - under 45 say - still want to work in a big city where they can drink, eat, fall in love, gossip, and go to the Tate at the weekend. They don't want to work from a cramped kitchen any more.
I was in the same year as Sian Berry at Trinity. We were friends but fell out over some stupid political shite soon after she first joined the Green Party. I'm not really Green Party material. TBF I wasn't really Trinity material either but found that out too late.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
Counterfactual...what if they DON'T boycott it?
I think you could quite easily argue the fact it wasn't binding would mean that No numbers would be down..
At Old Trafford too. Oh how the mighty have fallen.
In fairness the fact it is at OT makes the odds seem fair. Our home form this year has been appalling. Our away form, remarkably, is a club record.
It's the same in a number of clubs. Home/Away doesn't really mean as much without any fans at the club.
I'm rather suprised and don't want to jinx it that Liverpool's undefeated run at Anfield is still going strong. A growing proportion of the squad have not lost a home league game with the club.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
You’re assuming all Remainers voted purely on economics . The emotion side of the debate isn’t just a Leave thing.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
No, pickled herring is best as a light lunch, not as a side dish. Just some crispbread or ryebread. The ikea ones with dill and onion or mustard sauce are good.
Demands that Brexiteers apologise and repent their sins...
You're 'not sure' you agree with that, eh?
It's bollocks in any case. I remember Alistair Meeks responding very negatively to people apologising for their Brexit sins, and don't see why anyone else driven so emtional by Brexit would respond any more reasonably to someone seeking repentence.
But the *generational* divide is very significant on something that could last close to a *generation*.
The old screwing it up for the young has traction.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
Paradoxically I think it's the other way round. Seceding from a sovereign state has been done countless times. The more the EU resembles a sovereign state, the more leaving it resembles secession.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
I think scenes of the security forces dragging grannies out of polling stations was a positive for the independence cause.
Demands that Brexiteers apologise and repent their sins...
You're 'not sure' you agree with that, eh?
It's bollocks in any case. I remember Alistair Meeks responding very negatively to people apologising for their Brexit sins, and don't see why anyone else driven so emtional by Brexit would respond any more reasonably to someone seeking repentence.
But the *generational* divide is very significant on something that could last close to a *generation*.
The old screwing it up for the young has traction.
The point was people are unlikely to seek forgiveness even if things go very badly, if it is pretty clear forgiveness would not be granted even if sought. And so views will further entrench.
The Tories are failing to win over younger voters.
I don't think that tweet is the devastating point it, and you, think it is, since I would imagine given the Tories had less support at the preceding election, that there had probably been a higher 'crossover', which was then reduced by the time of GE 2019.
Sure, the Tories need to be careful about their support, but the thrust of comments like that are quite clearly 'The Tories are screwed!', when at best they might start to be if they don't do anything.
Demands that Brexiteers apologise and repent their sins...
You're 'not sure' you agree with that, eh?
It's bollocks in any case. I remember Alistair Meeks responding very negatively to people apologising for their Brexit sins, and don't see why anyone else driven so emtional by Brexit would respond any more reasonably to someone seeking repentence.
It is total bollocks. Hardcore Remainers are growing madder and more religious by the day. This is Savonarola raging at the Florentines.
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City is not France. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Or New York. Or Paris. Or Berlin. Or any big city anywhere
And yet, people will still live in cities, I have friends who were loving WFH in Lockdown 1, now they fucking hate it. They're bored, they want business lunches, they want to go for drinks after work, they've got kids screaming as they try to type, they want office romance, they want office parties, they want to walk in handsome streets, they want to stay in a great big world city with art, restaurants, world class sport, beautiful parks, nearby airports, lots of other interesting people.
What you say applies, I reckon, to much older workers with grown up kids and big houses. A day or two in the office will be just fine for them. maybe even the hotel stays.
But young people - under 45 say - still want to work in a big city where they can drink, eat, fall in love, gossip, and go to the Tate at the weekend. They don't want to work from a cramped kitchen any more.
That's the feeling I'm getting from employer clients. When this started in March, and we had that lovely Spring weather soon after, everyone had throughts much like rcs1000's friend. As the year has gone on everyone has started going stir crazy and increasingly people can't wait to get out of their kitchen into the office.
It's also damaging to social mobility. Fine if you have a nice house witha spare room to turn into an office. No so fine if you share a flat with 5 other people. I lived in a house with 5 university friends when I was a trainee (my firm was not the highest payer though TBF) and there is no way, no way, I could have worked remotely and preserved client confidentiality.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
I think scenes of the security forces dragging grannies out of polling stations was a positive for the independence cause.
And yet Catalunyan independence now looks further away than it has done for many years. Breaking the law was a fatal error by the Catalan indy leaders.
Sturgeon is too canny to do that, though she is surrounded by dangerous nutters who are prepared to take this crazy road. It will be an interesting and fiery debate within the SNP.
Now, more than ever, I am depressed by the Cornavirus situation in the UK.
Back in the Spring I was furious about the lethargy towards taking action the governments displayed. Apoplectic with rage that the Scotland - France game went ahead for instance.
But at the back of my mind I always had the nagging doubt "Would I, with the weight of the country on me, have made different decisions?" was it actually feasible to shut down faster? We had so little info, maybe the inaction was understandable.
Now though. We have so much evidence of how the virus spreads under various restrictions and behaviours. We can see America shooting off into the stratosphere of deaths with their Thanksgiving Death Cult embrace. And what are we doing? Fucking going to replicate it with Christmas.
This time round instead of being angry I am depressed. This stupidity never ends. It will never end.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
Paradoxically I think it's the other way round. Seceding from a sovereign state has been done countless times. The more the EU resembles a sovereign state, the more leaving it resembles secession.
Wanting to leave and leaving are however two very different things. I support for example scottish independence however I am in no doubt that disentangling from the uk is going to be an order of magnitude more difficult than the uk leaving the eu
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Wouldn't think so, not for zing - the flavour is too mild.
PS If trying to avoid cooking yoiu might as well serve the herring with pickled beetroot (not too sweet), raw tomato and a creamy potato salad or sour cream (as Foxy said) from the deli counter/cooler, with some bread to mop up - the combination of flavour and texture should be good and it saves time and washing up!
I do like pickled herring and now I’m hungry...
Looking around, I can't find too many recipes (need to look harder), and most seem to involve simple flavours, and some form of egg and/or carb. Imply treatment rather like mackerel in some respects.
Where's the best place to order from?
Most supermarkets sell both pickled herring and ready to eat mackeral (usually smoked)
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?
This is why many indy voters (myself included) would like to know what the SNP Plan B is.
Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
But I'm saying that imo it never would have got there. Yes, I agree, being in the currency deepens the integration and I suppose Frexit would be even more harrowing than Brexit, if one can imagine such a thing. Any case, it's done, Brexit is, so now let's have that deal. I still on balance think it's coming, don't you?
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
Paradoxically I think it's the other way round. Seceding from a sovereign state has been done countless times. The more the EU resembles a sovereign state, the more leaving it resembles secession.
Wanting to leave and leaving are however two very different things. I support for example scottish independence however I am in no doubt that disentangling from the uk is going to be an order of magnitude more difficult than the uk leaving the eu
The UK is a state, not a system, so disentangling is the wrong metaphor. There will be no UK in the same sense after independence.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
Paradoxically I think it's the other way round. Seceding from a sovereign state has been done countless times. The more the EU resembles a sovereign state, the more leaving it resembles secession.
No, Pagan is right. Once you are in the single currency, it becomes virtually impossible to leave. It is too dangerous, destabilising, complex, difficult.
Look how hard it has been for the UK to leave, and we were already semi-detached, and not in the euro.
Legally , EU secession will always be possible, but in practise for many European countries it is too late.
Demands that Brexiteers apologise and repent their sins...
You're 'not sure' you agree with that, eh?
It's bollocks in any case. I remember Alistair Meeks responding very negatively to people apologising for their Brexit sins, and don't see why anyone else driven so emtional by Brexit would respond any more reasonably to someone seeking repentence.
It is total bollocks. Hardcore Remainers are growing madder and more religious by the day. This is Savonarola raging at the Florentines.
I've been politically actively pro-European for 50 odd years and it's clear to me that the lunatics have taken over the asylum. I would almost recommend young people to learn another European language so that they can emigrate to Europe for a better life. Please note the world 'almost' I'm not quite there yet. I do though feel very, very sad at the prospects in the country where most of my ancestors seem have lived (and I've checked the DNA) for at least 1000 years.
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
I beat you to MoE! See below.
I do believe Johnson will bounce on the back of the vaccine, and even his snubbing Johnny Foreigner over no deal. I doubt any of it will last too long, when the penny drops that we really are up S*** Creek on his watch.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Kudo LadyG you should become a writer. We are probably all fed up of Brexit analogies but the muddy field one is the best one I've read here in a while.
Oh and it is exactly what I am predicting. Some disruption then life goes on.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
I can think of an English speaking city that might not be a bad fit.
Too cold and dark
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City is not France. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Or New York. Or Paris. Or Berlin. Or any big city anywhere
And yet, people will still live in cities, I have friends who were loving WFH in Lockdown 1, now they fucking hate it. They're bored, they want business lunches, they want to go for drinks after work, they've got kids screaming as they try to type, they want office romance, they want office parties, they want to walk in handsome streets, they want to stay in a great big world city with art, restaurants, world class sport, beautiful parks, nearby airports, lots of other interesting people.
What you say applies, I reckon, to much older workers with grown up kids and big houses. A day or two in the office will be just fine for them. maybe even the hotel stays.
But young people - under 45 say - still want to work in a big city where they can drink, eat, fall in love, gossip, and go to the Tate at the weekend. They don't want to work from a cramped kitchen any more.
Basically, people want the stuff that allows them to dodge out of doing actual work. WFH means they actually have to do what they are paid to do.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It's more about the overall substance than any one specific. If it got to a point where in my view membership of the EU was preventing the UK doing lots of important things it wanted to do, or conversely was forcing the UK to do lots of important things it did not want to do, then I'd be saying, "hang on, is this quite the way to carry on?" But we were a long long way off that in my estimation, it wasn't even in sight, and furthermore I doubt we'd have ever got there, because if a very non-nationalistic person like me feels like that way, it would inevitably mean that huge numbers of other people had started feeling that way years ago, and therefore it wouldn't have happened. USE against the clear wishes of the people of Europe is never going to be created. The EU is a collection of democracies. For all the quibbles, that's the essence of it. We know what totalitarianism looks like and Brussels is not it.
While I can understand that view it does have a problem. By the time we get that far it would be even more difficult for a country to leave than it currently is. Frankly I think this decade is the last that it will be possible to leave the eu. I would suggest it is already pretty much impossible to leave if you are in the eurozone
Paradoxically I think it's the other way round. Seceding from a sovereign state has been done countless times. The more the EU resembles a sovereign state, the more leaving it resembles secession.
Wanting to leave and leaving are however two very different things. I support for example scottish independence however I am in no doubt that disentangling from the uk is going to be an order of magnitude more difficult than the uk leaving the eu
The UK is a state, not a system, so disentangling is the wrong metaphor. There will be no UK in the same sense after independence.
It's a matter of degree. At one end of the scale there is no doubt that Czechoslovakia ceased to exist after Slovakia went its own way. However there is equally no doubt that Indonesia continued to exist after East Timor left. And if the fragmentation of Yugoslavia had ended with only Solvenia going then there would still, probably, be a continuity Yugoslavia. Where Scotland leaving the UK is on that continuum I leave to you.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
Even if you assume (as I do) that the SNP will still be in power after the May elections, with or without a majority, there is no realistic pathway to Scottish independence in 2021.
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Kudo LadyG you should become a writer. We are probably all fed up of Brexit analogies but the muddy field one is the best one I've read here in a while.
Oh and it is exactly what I am predicting. Some disruption then life goes on.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?
More bollox about how Scotland can do nothing without permission from Bozo the Clown
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
Even if you assume (as I do) that the SNP will still be in power after the May elections, with or without a majority, there is no realistic pathway to Scottish independence in 2021.
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
There will be a lot of talk about it though, agitation and protests as Westminster says No despite a big SNP win. So it will take up a lot of time and attention.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
Its going to be a massacre. A state sponsored one.
To be clear the article asy Italy is a couple of hundred lower right now but about to move ahead of the UK. However, all the noise there used to be when the UK figures were the worst seems to have died down for some reason - maybe it's the wrong sort of 'exceptionalism'.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
I think scenes of the security forces dragging grannies out of polling stations was a positive for the independence cause.
And yet Catalunyan independence now looks further away than it has done for many years. Breaking the law was a fatal error by the Catalan indy leaders.
Sturgeon is too canny to do that, though she is surrounded by dangerous nutters who are prepared to take this crazy road. It will be an interesting and fiery debate within the SNP.
Next time the Falange are back in government, independence will be back in vogue.
In a UK context, Bozo is Franco. Hence this is the best possible time for the SNP.
The Tories are failing to win over younger voters.
It's mid-term the polls don't mean squat.
Let's see what happens at the next General Election. The crossover age went down, not up, last time.
Come on Philip, you won't be able to contain your excitement at BigG's two point Tory lead.
But you are right it means nothing at the moment. Post pandemic, post no deal, it probably will be important.
Sorry to disappoint but consider my excitement contained. Two point lead or two points behind at this stage of the Parliament I really don't care. If either party gets double digit leads that would be interesting but single digits either way really are not, there will be swingback at the election.
We live in interesting times. We are potentially a day away from finding out if it's deal or no deal (probably longer), less than 3 weeks to go until that's implemented. We have to see the impact of vaccine rollout and potentially a comparison between us vaccinating and our neighbours not doing so.
We have enough that is interesting to discuss without opinion polls which are about as reliable as a horoscope right now.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?
This is why many indy voters (myself included) would like to know what the SNP Plan B is.
Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
Plan B is to take Westminster to the courts and then hold an "advisory" referendum if the courts rule against. But crucially not to mention this before Plan A is rejected.
The whole reason Sturgeon has got support for independence so high is the slowly, slowly don't frighten the horses approach. The "Yes" vote is very soft. It currently has a lot of people who are attracted by Sturgeon's "reasonableness".
If Sturgeon lays out the whole plan step by step to a wildcat referendum then that does two things A ) It gives Johnson every reason to refuse consent for a Westminster sanctioned referendum B ) it strips her of the aura of restraint.
She is leading non-dedicated Yessers step by step towards voting for Indy in a wildcat referendum. that can only be done with blinkers on otherwise they will shy away from the ballot box.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
And the sad thing is the public would largely support a lockdown now
They are not stupid, our politicians most certainly are and that includes Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster as well as Boris
Wales just gets worse and worse and our self imposed isolation Xmas is wholly justified and supported by our family
To be clear the article asy Italy is a couple of hundred lower right now but about to move ahead of the UK. However, all the noise there used to be when the UK figures were the worst seems to have died down for some reason - maybe it's the wrong sort of 'exceptionalism'.
Today's stats now definitively put Italy ahead of the UK in total
And of course Italy has a significantly smaller total population. And they were meant to have learned all the right lessons from their terrible First Wave.
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
Even if you assume (as I do) that the SNP will still be in power after the May elections, with or without a majority, there is no realistic pathway to Scottish independence in 2021.
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
A no deal Brexit calamity will be the catalyst. A way will be found. A referendum will be held in 2021 or 2022 and the result will be overwhelming. This could have been avoided if the UK had a sane Government.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Kudo LadyG you should become a writer. We are probably all fed up of Brexit analogies but the muddy field one is the best one I've read here in a while.
Oh and it is exactly what I am predicting. Some disruption then life goes on.
LOL Echoes from the cult figures , talking to themselves and convincing themselves the sunny uplands are coming.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
I think scenes of the security forces dragging grannies out of polling stations was a positive for the independence cause.
And yet Catalunyan independence now looks further away than it has done for many years. Breaking the law was a fatal error by the Catalan indy leaders.
Sturgeon is too canny to do that, though she is surrounded by dangerous nutters who are prepared to take this crazy road. It will be an interesting and fiery debate within the SNP.
What law would the SNP be breaking by having an advisory referendum?
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
Surely one of the devolved government's will break ranks and say the Xmas plan needs to be abandoned? None of them want to do that, I'm sure, but the situation doesn't look good enough to justify it, and better to disappoint people 2 weeks out so they can change plans.
Breaking the law was a fatal error by the Catalan indy leaders.
Because the Spanish Government hadn't led the way.
Every comparison you make with Spain neglects the elephant in the room, BoZo.
Spain is just a squirrel these idiots try to use to justify their pathetic arguments that England owns Scotland and decides what we can and cannot do. Catalonia is completely different scenario and Bozo the Clown will not be able to stop what is inevitable.
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
Even if you assume (as I do) that the SNP will still be in power after the May elections, with or without a majority, there is no realistic pathway to Scottish independence in 2021.
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
A no deal Brexit calamity will be the catalyst. A way will be found. A referendum will be help in 2021 or 2022 and the result will be overwhelming. This could have been avoided if the UK had a sane Government.
I’ll have what you’re having.
There can be no referendum without the approval of the UK government (the madder lies of Joanna Cherry and Bullshit for Scotland notwithstanding) and that will at the best of times take time to agree.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
And the sad thing is the public would largely support a lockdown now
They are not stupid, our politicians most certainly are and that includes Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster as well as Boris
Wales just gets worse and worse and our self imposed isolation Xmas is wholly justified and supported by our family
Reports up and down the country of plenty of stupid people. Out shopping. Up close and personal to each other. Mask compliance half at best.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It's just not going to happen.
I think scenes of the security forces dragging grannies out of polling stations was a positive for the independence cause.
And yet Catalunyan independence now looks further away than it has done for many years. Breaking the law was a fatal error by the Catalan indy leaders.
Sturgeon is too canny to do that, though she is surrounded by dangerous nutters who are prepared to take this crazy road. It will be an interesting and fiery debate within the SNP.
What law would the SNP be breaking by having an advisory referendum?
Depends on how they funded it. If they used public money without Westminster’s sanction, that would be outside their powers and therefore malfeasance.
If they funded it philanthropically that might be different, but equally nobody would pay much notice to it.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
Surely one of the devolved government's will break ranks and say the Xmas plan needs to be abandoned? None of them want to do that, I'm sure, but the situation doesn't look good enough to justify it, and better to disappoint people 2 weeks out so they can change plans.
I'm cancelling some plans right now.
Sturgeon seems far too weighed down by the actions of England and media reaction to do differently. Indeed she lead the idiotic "rush to normal" in the summer by having schools go back full time in August. That is a main driver of the mess we are in now.
After actually acting differently in enacting a decent tiering system she's went and reduced tiers far too early.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?
This is why many indy voters (myself included) would like to know what the SNP Plan B is.
Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
Plan B is to take Westminster to the courts and then hold an "advisory" referendum if the courts rule against. But crucially not to mention this before Plan A is rejected.
The whole reason Sturgeon has got support for independence so high is the slowly, slowly don't frighten the horses approach. The "Yes" vote is very soft. It currently has a lot of people who are attracted by Sturgeon's "reasonableness".
If Sturgeon lays out the whole plan step by step to a wildcat referendum then that does two things A ) It gives Johnson every reason to refuse consent for a Westminster sanctioned referendum B ) it strips her of the aura of restraint.
She is leading non-dedicated Yessers step by step towards voting for Indy in a wildcat referendum. that can only be done with blinkers on otherwise they will shy away from the ballot box.
Plus of course the SNP winning a clear unequivocal* mandate to hold a referendum and seeing that scorned by Westminster will be electoral gold dust.
If the SNP unequivocally wins a majority to hold a referendum and Westminster spits it back and says "No" like the DUP then that would be treating Scotland with such contempt that you can add a few more percentage points to Yes and the eventual referendum.
* The last manifesto was equivocal plus the SNP didn't win a majority.
How sad that with vaccines coming the last wave is going to be the worst .
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
Couldn't agree more. Christmas should have been cancelled. Brutal, but effective.
And the sad thing is the public would largely support a lockdown now
They are not stupid, our politicians most certainly are and that includes Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster as well as Boris
Wales just gets worse and worse and our self imposed isolation Xmas is wholly justified and supported by our family
Reports up and down the country of plenty of stupid people. Out shopping. Up close and personal to each other. Mask compliance half at best.
Tory voters, probably. Trust Boris to keep them safe.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
I can think of an English speaking city that might not be a bad fit.
Too cold and dark
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City is not France. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Or New York. Or Paris. Or Berlin. Or any big city anywhere
And yet, people will still live in cities, I have friends who were loving WFH in Lockdown 1, now they fucking hate it. They're bored, they want business lunches, they want to go for drinks after work, they've got kids screaming as they try to type, they want office romance, they want office parties, they want to walk in handsome streets, they want to stay in a great big world city with art, restaurants, world class sport, beautiful parks, nearby airports, lots of other interesting people.
What you say applies, I reckon, to much older workers with grown up kids and big houses. A day or two in the office will be just fine for them. maybe even the hotel stays.
But young people - under 45 say - still want to work in a big city where they can drink, eat, fall in love, gossip, and go to the Tate at the weekend. They don't want to work from a cramped kitchen any more.
Basically, people want the stuff that allows them to dodge out of doing actual work. WFH means they actually have to do what they are paid to do.
Strangely I don’t remember that from the very rare occasions I worked from home.
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
Even if you assume (as I do) that the SNP will still be in power after the May elections, with or without a majority, there is no realistic pathway to Scottish independence in 2021.
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
A no deal Brexit calamity will be the catalyst. A way will be found. A referendum will be help in 2021 or 2022 and the result will be overwhelming. This could have been avoided if the UK had a sane Government.
I’ll have what you’re having.
There can be no referendum without the approval of the UK government (the madder lies of Joanna Cherry and Bullshit for Scotland notwithstanding) and that will at the best of times take time to agree.
Next year will not be the best of times.
Time appears to be on their side - they don't need to take radical steps which might put some people off, they can feed off a refusal and wait for pressure to inexorably build, so Sturgeon is probably smart enough to play it safe and incrementally.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
Then what's the SNPs best option? Presumably to hold out until an election where a hung parliament is possible. But what is peak indy has passed?
This is why many indy voters (myself included) would like to know what the SNP Plan B is.
Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
Plan B is to take Westminster to the courts and then hold an "advisory" referendum if the courts rule against. But crucially not to mention this before Plan A is rejected.
The whole reason Sturgeon has got support for independence so high is the slowly, slowly don't frighten the horses approach. The "Yes" vote is very soft. It currently has a lot of people who are attracted by Sturgeon's "reasonableness".
If Sturgeon lays out the whole plan step by step to a wildcat referendum then that does two things A ) It gives Johnson every reason to refuse consent for a Westminster sanctioned referendum B ) it strips her of the aura of restraint.
She is leading non-dedicated Yessers step by step towards voting for Indy in a wildcat referendum. that can only be done with blinkers on otherwise they will shy away from the ballot box.
She may go to court. But the court will say No. It's a matter reserved for Westminster. That's where her cunning plan crashes to a halt.
The Tories will advise their voters to boycott an illegal referendum. Maybe Labour too. And the LDs. Result chaos, and a useless, incendiary, non-binding vote which makes the SNP look very dodgy and has no legal power.
To be clear the article asy Italy is a couple of hundred lower right now but about to move ahead of the UK. However, all the noise there used to be when the UK figures were the worst seems to have died down for some reason - maybe it's the wrong sort of 'exceptionalism'.
Today's stats now definitively put Italy ahead of the UK in total
And of course Italy has a significantly smaller total population. And they were meant to have learned all the right lessons from their terrible First Wave.
I don't blame governments frankly - you must have the IQ of a potato to be unclear of the risks. People need to take responsibility for thier own decisions.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
I can think of an English speaking city that might not be a bad fit.
Too cold and dark
And small. And not enough good quality office space.
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City is not France. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
Ending the hegenomy of london and the southeast as the place to go if you want to work while initially it will be painful is a long term gain for the rest of the country in my view. I now work from home for the forseeable future as we no longer have an office building so instead of having to live in the south east am considering moving home and therefore will be injecting my salary into the south west economy which I am sure will be welcome
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
MoE stuff. Opinion polls irrelevant - just look at the polls a year before GE 2019. 2021 will be about Scotland and Scottish independence and Sadiq Khan landslide here in London.
Even if you assume (as I do) that the SNP will still be in power after the May elections, with or without a majority, there is no realistic pathway to Scottish independence in 2021.
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
A no deal Brexit calamity will be the catalyst. A way will be found. A referendum will be help in 2021 or 2022 and the result will be overwhelming. This could have been avoided if the UK had a sane Government.
I’ll have what you’re having.
There can be no referendum without the approval of the UK government (the madder lies of Joanna Cherry and Bullshit for Scotland notwithstanding) and that will at the best of times take time to agree.
Next year will not be the best of times.
Time appears to be on their side - they don't need to take radical steps which might put some people off, they can feed off a refusal and wait for pressure to inexorably build, so Sturgeon is probably smart enough to play it safe and incrementally.
I would agree with that. The only way in which time might not be on their side is over the Salmond case, which could well end by consuming Sturgeon as well leaving no significant figurehead to lead the independence movement.
But I would have said it is now strong enough to survive that intact.
Comments
For that matter, six months of polling had Cameron and Miliband neck and neck.
Maybe it's my bubble but it's just a felling I have...
You know what, though.
The real threat to the City of London is not Paris or Amsterdam or Edinburgh. It's a post-Covid world where physical presence is much less important than it was.
A friend of mine runs a large European equities fund. They had really cool offices above Bibendum in Chelsea.
Since Covid, they've been working from home. They've spent insane amounts on getting proper fiber optic connections to everyone's homes, and the firm has paid for even junior employees to have their places kitted out like the office.
And everyone loves it. They're giving up on Bibendum, and plan to do a week at a hotel every two months so that people stay in good contact with each other. No commuting. No rent. You can live in the country. Or indeed, in a completely different country. They reckon that - even with their additional tech costs and staying at nice hotels from time-to-time - they'll save close to a million every year.
That's the real threat of Covid - the fact you don't need to live in London any more.
In the aftermath of a no deal they will be failing to win over any voters! Early days yet of course.
In the Spring, we had the natural tailwind of spending more and more time outdoors. We're now seeing the opposite combined with restrictions fatigue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyahEuxvBUk&ab_channel=RobertSmithson
https://twitter.com/IchBinDurstig/status/1336748180763979776/photo/1
It's bollocks in any case. I remember Alistair Meeks responding very negatively to people apologising for their Brexit sins, and don't see why anyone else driven so emtional by Brexit would respond any more reasonably to someone seeking repentence.
And yet, people will still live in cities, I have friends who were loving WFH in Lockdown 1, now they fucking hate it. They're bored, they want business lunches, they want to go for drinks after work, they've got kids screaming as they try to type, they want office romance, they want office parties, they want to walk in handsome streets, they want to stay in a great big world city with art, restaurants, world class sport, beautiful parks, nearby airports, lots of other interesting people.
What you say applies, I reckon, to much older workers with grown up kids and big houses. A day or two in the office will be just fine for them. maybe even the hotel stays.
But young people - under 45 say - still want to work in a big city where they can drink, eat, fall in love, gossip, and go to the Tate at the weekend. They don't want to work from a cramped kitchen any more.
I'm rather suprised and don't want to jinx it that Liverpool's undefeated run at Anfield is still going strong. A growing proportion of the squad have not lost a home league game with the club.
Let's see what happens at the next General Election. The crossover age went down, not up, last time.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1337777940445138947?s=19
The old screwing it up for the young has traction.
I have been saying Tory lead since Boris invented three vaccines.
Sure, the Tories need to be careful about their support, but the thrust of comments like that are quite clearly 'The Tories are screwed!', when at best they might start to be if they don't do anything.
It's also damaging to social mobility. Fine if you have a nice house witha spare room to turn into an office. No so fine if you share a flat with 5 other people. I lived in a house with 5 university friends when I was a trainee (my firm was not the highest payer though TBF) and there is no way, no way, I could have worked remotely and preserved client confidentiality.
Sir Abstainalot inspires nobody to swap
But you are right it means nothing at the moment. Post pandemic, post no deal, it probably will be important.
Sturgeon is too canny to do that, though she is surrounded by dangerous nutters who are prepared to take this crazy road. It will be an interesting and fiery debate within the SNP.
Back in the Spring I was furious about the lethargy towards taking action the governments displayed. Apoplectic with rage that the Scotland - France game went ahead for instance.
But at the back of my mind I always had the nagging doubt "Would I, with the weight of the country on me, have made different decisions?" was it actually feasible to shut down faster? We had so little info, maybe the inaction was understandable.
Now though. We have so much evidence of how the virus spreads under various restrictions and behaviours. We can see America shooting off into the stratosphere of deaths with their Thanksgiving Death Cult embrace. And what are we doing? Fucking going to replicate it with Christmas.
This time round instead of being angry I am depressed. This stupidity never ends. It will never end.
I see that iKea sell it: https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/p/sill-dill-marinated-herring-with-dill-30101031/
https://www.ikea.com/gb/en/p/sill-senap-marinated-herring-w-mustard-sauce-90101033/
Plan A, just hoping that Boris will merely magically relent on the grounds of democracy when the SNP win big at another election is not in of itself a bad plan per se, but it being the sole plan would seem to be bordering on the criminally insane.
Look how hard it has been for the UK to leave, and we were already semi-detached, and not in the euro.
Legally , EU secession will always be possible, but in practise for many European countries it is too late.
Every comparison you make with Spain neglects the elephant in the room, BoZo.
Please note the world 'almost' I'm not quite there yet. I do though feel very, very sad at the prospects in the country where most of my ancestors seem have lived (and I've checked the DNA) for at least 1000 years.
I do believe Johnson will bounce on the back of the vaccine, and even his snubbing Johnny Foreigner over no deal. I doubt any of it will last too long, when the penny drops that we really are up S*** Creek on his watch.
Oh and it is exactly what I am predicting. Some disruption then life goes on.
How many families are going to be having huge regrets post Christmas . January is going to be horrific when we just needed one last effort it was all thrown away . Tragic .
I would personally expect a referendum in 2023 at the earliest as matters stand.
2021 will be about the shambles of our economy, not about independence.
To be clear the article asy Italy is a couple of hundred lower right now but about to move ahead of the UK. However, all the noise there used to be when the UK figures were the worst seems to have died down for some reason - maybe it's the wrong sort of 'exceptionalism'.
In a UK context, Bozo is Franco. Hence this is the best possible time for the SNP.
We live in interesting times. We are potentially a day away from finding out if it's deal or no deal (probably longer), less than 3 weeks to go until that's implemented. We have to see the impact of vaccine rollout and potentially a comparison between us vaccinating and our neighbours not doing so.
We have enough that is interesting to discuss without opinion polls which are about as reliable as a horoscope right now.
Truly we are approaching the end of times.
The whole reason Sturgeon has got support for independence so high is the slowly, slowly don't frighten the horses approach. The "Yes" vote is very soft. It currently has a lot of people who are attracted by Sturgeon's "reasonableness".
If Sturgeon lays out the whole plan step by step to a wildcat referendum then that does two things
A ) It gives Johnson every reason to refuse consent for a Westminster sanctioned referendum
B ) it strips her of the aura of restraint.
She is leading non-dedicated Yessers step by step towards voting for Indy in a wildcat referendum. that can only be done with blinkers on otherwise they will shy away from the ballot box.
They are not stupid, our politicians most certainly are and that includes Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster as well as Boris
Wales just gets worse and worse and our self imposed isolation Xmas is wholly justified and supported by our family
And of course Italy has a significantly smaller total population. And they were meant to have learned all the right lessons from their terrible First Wave.
I'm cancelling some plans right now.
There can be no referendum without the approval of the UK government (the madder lies of Joanna Cherry and Bullshit for Scotland notwithstanding) and that will at the best of times take time to agree.
Next year will not be the best of times.
If they funded it philanthropically that might be different, but equally nobody would pay much notice to it.
After actually acting differently in enacting a decent tiering system she's went and reduced tiers far too early.
If the SNP unequivocally wins a majority to hold a referendum and Westminster spits it back and says "No" like the DUP then that would be treating Scotland with such contempt that you can add a few more percentage points to Yes and the eventual referendum.
* The last manifesto was equivocal plus the SNP didn't win a majority.
The Tories will advise their voters to boycott an illegal referendum. Maybe Labour too. And the LDs. Result chaos, and a useless, incendiary, non-binding vote which makes the SNP look very dodgy and has no legal power.
But I would have said it is now strong enough to survive that intact.