CNN: The numerous U-turns of 2020 have mostly related to Johnson's handling of the pandemic, which many Conservatives believe has been too stringent and unnecessarily hard. "All that good will he had for delivering our Brexit dream is being overwritten by the fact he's not behaving like a Conservative," explained a veteran Tory on the right of the party.
Who writes this rubbish?
I am almost the last person who wants to be seen defending Bojo ... but in dealing with a completely unknown disease, a U-turn is the most natural thing in the world.
It is just trial and error if you know little about a disease -- the most basic scientific empiricism. Try something, see if it works; if not change it.
Of all the stupid things journalists go on about, U-turns in the middle of a pandemic of an unknown disease with unknown characteristics is the stupidest.
If a politician has not U-turned multiple times this year, they are surely completely unfit for office.
There is truth in what you say, but the reality we have faced is equally disastrous. A government that chops and changes depending upon who last sat on it, that has announced several new regimes that never got as far as being implemented, and that has moved toward abandoning others within days of their adoption, such that most ordinary folk have given up trying to understand the intricacies of what we are and aren’t supposed to be doing at any time, is not responding to the pandemic in a responsible way.
We should have had a clear set of restrictions and stuck to them, with appropriate enforcement, rather than inventing a new policy for each week of the year.
Can I remind you that the LibDems are in power? Or at least the last remaining Welsh LibDem is. 😀😀
The LibDems are in power with Labour in Wales.
Have you seen the COVID response in Wales? Labour & the the LibDems have actually managed to do worse than Bojo.
"We should have had a clear set of restrictions and stuck to them, with appropriate enforcement, rather than inventing a new policy for each week of the year."
Of course not. The response depends on the season & on a myriad local factors such as the R value or the population density or demographics. The best response actually does change with time.
We strangely also hear less and less about how much better other European countries are doing than the UK.
The reality is Europe has collectively failed on COVID.
And the USA, and Latin America.
Easier to list the countries that haven't failed....There really isn't any / many "inbetween" countries now that kinda done pretty well. It basically they done well or its a shit show.
We strangely also hear less and less about how much better other European countries are doing than the UK.
The reality is Europe has collectively failed on COVID.
You’re not wrong. Although the UK has failed harder overall primarily because of 50 nutters on the Tory benches. Can’t blame Johnson for everything although he carries almost all the first wave shitstorm on his back. No one bar Norway and Finland in Europe is coming out of this with any glory.
Still, the poor showing from others shouldn’t stop us from learning the bloody lessons and holding those who didn’t (Johnson, Sunak, Patel) to account. The odd thing is that I agree with Stephen Bush that Hancock might be the under appreciated MVP of this situation. He’s consistently been right when the rest of them have been talking and eating shit, even while he’s continuously been sabotaged by Sunak on one flank and the Let-Er-Rip squad on the other.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
What do you think will happen if No Deal is genuinely disastrous? Will Boris beg forgiveness for his errors and resign, for example?
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
Covid: Christmas five-day relaxation period 'a mistake'
Prof Bauld told BBC Breakfast that "from a public health perspective, I have to be perfectly honest, I think this is a mistake and I think people, even though we're permitted to do this, I think people have to think very carefully whether they can see loved ones outside or do it in a very, very modest way".
She added there was "nothing to stop" governments reversing the rules, "but the problem is they've made that commitment to people across the UK, and that may affect trust in government if they roll back on that".
I'm beginning to suspect that it will make little difference - once covid is in the country it will steadily circulate.
All governments can do is 'flatten the curve'.
But "flattening the curve" IS making a difference. Keep a lid on the virus and prevent the NHS falling over until the vaccine is rolled out. That's the strategy and it's the only feasible one. There is no realistic option to eradicate it. Nobody thinks that's possible.
There's plenty of people who do think the government should be able to eradicate it - remember when mask wearing was believed to be the 'magic bullet' ?
And there's plenty of people who oppose any restriction on things they like to do - most of the oldies I know seem to be on a suicide mission.
My prediction: politics will eventually arrive at the point where people of working age and younger face up to the oldies and say: “fine, we sacrificed our futures to save you from the virus, now is the time for you to make sacrifices to save the future environment of our planet”. Once the COVID crisis is behind us, climate change is going to dominate our politics.
And what does that amount to in practice ?
A wealth tax on oldies ?
I’d settle for just ignoring their madder, Nimbyish tendencies. Every time a bike lane or city centre pedestrian zone is proposed there’s a sea of white hair and bad faith arguments from the suburbs. Lots of political power in old peeps with an axe to grind and time to organise. That needs to stop being humoured so often (and is one reason I stan Edinburgh council for telling them all to piss off over their Spaces for People initiative).
Interesting thought - what is your age profile of bikeriders?
Here we have a good number of older of both sexes, a lot of essentially MTBers, plus some families and quite a lot trying it out. In a town with lots of leisure trails, but not very many good cycle tracks.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
You should just try them. Your suggestions are simply ghastly.
If you will forgive me a brief rant/moment of introspection on how my personal views have evolved, on the eve of what seems more and more likely to be a no-deal.
I'd always considered myself a Eurosceptic, and in my younger years I will admit to being a bit of a Dan Hannan fanboy. Voted Tory a few times. In the run up to the referendum, I was fairly on the fence re leave/remain. Probably fairly typical in that I had no great love for Brussels' impact on 'sovereignty', and did have concerns around immigration and the various other compromises that being a part of the club entailed. Having said that, being vaguely switched on I could see that there was no workable form of Brexit given the integration of our economies and the political infeasibility of a EFTA/Norway or Swiss style solution. So I voted remain, obviously.
On the metaphorical morning after 'ho hum', I thought, we're in for a political fudge of a soft brexit. How wrong I was, believing the adults were still in charge. We've now had four years of Tory civil war, the right wing press shrieking to 'crush the saboteurs', the worst kind of xenophobia and deriding those 48% of us who weren't signed up to the whole project as remoaners and traitors.
And now this, with an outcome that (best case) will remove my rights to free movement, f**k over what remains of British manufacturing, and has/will do immense damage to my countries international standing. For what benefit? Blue Passports? The chance to water down environmental regulations, or do marginally better trade deals with Outer Mongolia than would have been possible within the EU? Maybe do a sweetheart deal with the US... oh, wait...
I must admit, I've always prided myself in being able to see both sides of arguments. But, perhaps mirroring the broader polarisation of the debate, I've found myself unable to emphasise with the pro-Brexit side of the argument. Despite, in my younger years, having made a few of them over a pint or two.
Yeah, the situation we find ourselves in is owned by the Tory party, their cheerleaders, and an honourable mention must also go to Corbyn. Our country has been irreparably damaged, and I will do everything in my power to ensure it is not forgotten.
You are not alone in your thoughts, great post. I voted remain but thought and to an extent still think, there was a case for Brexit. It is the divisive and incompetent handling of Brexit by the Tory party that has done irreversible damage to our society not Brexit itself.
+1 a good article. The sad fact is that Brexiters glibly assumed that Brexit would be followed by other members wanting out, and that the EU would quickly collapse. It never envisaged the scenario where we would be outside in the cold, while the union continues with, if anything, greater support from its member populations.
lol. Fintan O'Toole. He writes the same obsessive Britain-hating article every week. He's monomaniacal
Can you imagine the reaction in the UK if France said it was sending in its navy to stop UK fishermen .
Leavers never look at things from the other point of view . Why antagonize matters when there’s still a chance of a deal unless that is the plan all along was no deal .
The EU have shown huge restraint in not reacting to the constant barrage of idiocy and showboating from this pathetic government .
There's be no reaction at all because if UK Fishermen were in French waters unlawfully that would be a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
And anyway the people who have been enforcing fishing rules in France are the Gendarmerie Maritime, who have been part of the French Navy, since - apparently - 1337.
Clearly behind with the scare stories. We have already been assured that we won't be able to import anything from Norway because our ports will all be blocked with dead rotting sheep carcasses.
Those herrings are seriously nice. I've no idea what Gauke is on about.
I agree, but a certain conservative mentality - the classic Brexiter modality - really, really will nto touch them. Some years ago some older friends came round for dinner - pickled herring, M&S chicken pie, pud. Wouldn't look at the herring. Disaster easily averted - each got a one and a third portion of pie and I had four portions of herring for my starter and main.
Interesting. I have not tried pickled herring. I don't think of pickled things out of a jar as more than a garnish, even though I have a dozen different pickled things in the kitchen.
OTOH I have 2kg of kippers in the freezer.
Yum re the kippers.
Well worth trying the herring sometime. It's not usually very vinegary. Also keeps well in the fridge for months. Best eaten I think with some sort of veg or salad to cut its oiliness. I often have pickled (not just boiled) beetroot and fresh tomato with it which are both sharp in their different ways. Served with brown/wholemeal bread or boiled potatoes. Maybe yourt fishmonger sells pots of pickled herring. Or you can buy jars at IKEA for instance (in the food shop near the doors).
I'm a fan - you can get them in Waitrose too, next to the lumpen caviar (which is also good). They're tangy, not a taste the British diet has much of, so a genuine change of flavour.
Caviar from Waitrose.
Remind me why we lost the red wall?
Because the people eating it pretended they actually liked beer and fags.
If you will forgive me a brief rant/moment of introspection on how my personal views have evolved, on the eve of what seems more and more likely to be a no-deal.
I'd always considered myself a Eurosceptic, and in my younger years I will admit to being a bit of a Dan Hannan fanboy. Voted Tory a few times. In the run up to the referendum, I was fairly on the fence re leave/remain. Probably fairly typical in that I had no great love for Brussels' impact on 'sovereignty', and did have concerns around immigration and the various other compromises that being a part of the club entailed. Having said that, being vaguely switched on I could see that there was no workable form of Brexit given the integration of our economies and the political infeasibility of a EFTA/Norway or Swiss style solution. So I voted remain, obviously.
On the metaphorical morning after 'ho hum', I thought, we're in for a political fudge of a soft brexit. How wrong I was, believing the adults were still in charge. We've now had four years of Tory civil war, the right wing press shrieking to 'crush the saboteurs', the worst kind of xenophobia and deriding those 48% of us who weren't signed up to the whole project as remoaners and traitors.
And now this, with an outcome that (best case) will remove my rights to free movement, f**k over what remains of British manufacturing, and has/will do immense damage to my countries international standing. For what benefit? Blue Passports? The chance to water down environmental regulations, or do marginally better trade deals with Outer Mongolia than would have been possible within the EU? Maybe do a sweetheart deal with the US... oh, wait...
I must admit, I've always prided myself in being able to see both sides of arguments. But, perhaps mirroring the broader polarisation of the debate, I've found myself unable to emphasise with the pro-Brexit side of the argument. Despite, in my younger years, having made a few of them over a pint or two.
Yeah, the situation we find ourselves in is owned by the Tory party, their cheerleaders, and an honourable mention must also go to Corbyn. Our country has been irreparably damaged, and I will do everything in my power to ensure it is not forgotten.
If you will forgive me a brief rant/moment of introspection on how my personal views have evolved, on the eve of what seems more and more likely to be a no-deal.
I'd always considered myself a Eurosceptic, and in my younger years I will admit to being a bit of a Dan Hannan fanboy. Voted Tory a few times. In the run up to the referendum, I was fairly on the fence re leave/remain. Probably fairly typical in that I had no great love for Brussels' impact on 'sovereignty', and did have concerns around immigration and the various other compromises that being a part of the club entailed. Having said that, being vaguely switched on I could see that there was no workable form of Brexit given the integration of our economies and the political infeasibility of a EFTA/Norway or Swiss style solution. So I voted remain, obviously.
On the metaphorical morning after 'ho hum', I thought, we're in for a political fudge of a soft brexit. How wrong I was, believing the adults were still in charge. We've now had four years of Tory civil war, the right wing press shrieking to 'crush the saboteurs', the worst kind of xenophobia and deriding those 48% of us who weren't signed up to the whole project as remoaners and traitors.
And now this, with an outcome that (best case) will remove my rights to free movement, f**k over what remains of British manufacturing, and has/will do immense damage to my countries international standing. For what benefit? Blue Passports? The chance to water down environmental regulations, or do marginally better trade deals with Outer Mongolia than would have been possible within the EU? Maybe do a sweetheart deal with the US... oh, wait...
I must admit, I've always prided myself in being able to see both sides of arguments. But, perhaps mirroring the broader polarisation of the debate, I've found myself unable to emphasise with the pro-Brexit side of the argument. Despite, in my younger years, having made a few of them over a pint or two.
Yeah, the situation we find ourselves in is owned by the Tory party, their cheerleaders, and an honourable mention must also go to Corbyn. Our country has been irreparably damaged, and I will do everything in my power to ensure it is not forgotten.
A great post!
...but, but it was ALL Blair's fault. I read it on PB.com.
Covid: Christmas five-day relaxation period 'a mistake'
Prof Bauld told BBC Breakfast that "from a public health perspective, I have to be perfectly honest, I think this is a mistake and I think people, even though we're permitted to do this, I think people have to think very carefully whether they can see loved ones outside or do it in a very, very modest way".
She added there was "nothing to stop" governments reversing the rules, "but the problem is they've made that commitment to people across the UK, and that may affect trust in government if they roll back on that".
I'm beginning to suspect that it will make little difference - once covid is in the country it will steadily circulate.
All governments can do is 'flatten the curve'.
But "flattening the curve" IS making a difference. Keep a lid on the virus and prevent the NHS falling over until the vaccine is rolled out. That's the strategy and it's the only feasible one. There is no realistic option to eradicate it. Nobody thinks that's possible.
There's plenty of people who do think the government should be able to eradicate it - remember when mask wearing was believed to be the 'magic bullet' ?
And there's plenty of people who oppose any restriction on things they like to do - most of the oldies I know seem to be on a suicide mission.
My prediction: politics will eventually arrive at the point where people of working age and younger face up to the oldies and say: “fine, we sacrificed our futures to save you from the virus, now is the time for you to make sacrifices to save the future environment of our planet”. Once the COVID crisis is behind us, climate change is going to dominate our politics.
And what does that amount to in practice ?
A wealth tax on oldies ?
I’d settle for just ignoring their madder, Nimbyish tendencies. Every time a bike lane or city centre pedestrian zone is proposed there’s a sea of white hair and bad faith arguments from the suburbs. Lots of political power in old peeps with an axe to grind and time to organise. That needs to stop being humoured so often (and is one reason I stan Edinburgh council for telling them all to piss off over their Spaces for People initiative).
Interesting thought - what is your age profile of bikeriders?
Here we have a good number of older of both sexes, a lot of essentially MTBers, plus some families and quite a lot trying it out. In a town with lots of leisure trails, but not very many good cycle tracks.
Commuters obviously skew younger (20s-50s) but there are lots of older leisure cyclists. The issue is that there are quite a few very wealthy, older suburbs in the area who are politically quite powerful. We don’t quite have US HOA style cartels but the Residents Associations are always run by angry nutters who hate anything that means a very slightly slower journey to somewhere they never go anyway. It was a battle to get one cycle project that, at worst, appropriates one lane of a 30mph dual carriageway for a pavement and cycle lane approved. The road in question hasn’t even had a pavement for 40 years. If you’ve had contact with the cesspool of local suburban politics Brexit looks totally amicable.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
You should just try them. Your suggestions are simply ghastly.
They're clearly not a viable vegetarian addition.
That's interesting. Can you suggest alternative recipes? I'll certainly give it a try, and order some for Christmas.
I don't need a viable vegetarian addition . I find that veggie versions of things sometimes give a nice wide selection of vegetables more easily (ok, lazily) than cooking several different vegetables myself.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Very unlikely. A No Deal Brexit will destroy this country. The only silver lining is that the Conservative Party who are ultimately responsible for this calamity will be destroyed too! It will be brutal and it will be quick!
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Wouldn't think so, not for zing - the flavour is too mild.
If you will forgive me a brief rant/moment of introspection on how my personal views have evolved, on the eve of what seems more and more likely to be a no-deal.
I'd always considered myself a Eurosceptic, and in my younger years I will admit to being a bit of a Dan Hannan fanboy. Voted Tory a few times. In the run up to the referendum, I was fairly on the fence re leave/remain. Probably fairly typical in that I had no great love for Brussels' impact on 'sovereignty', and did have concerns around immigration and the various other compromises that being a part of the club entailed. Having said that, being vaguely switched on I could see that there was no workable form of Brexit given the integration of our economies and the political infeasibility of a EFTA/Norway or Swiss style solution. So I voted remain, obviously.
On the metaphorical morning after 'ho hum', I thought, we're in for a political fudge of a soft brexit. How wrong I was, believing the adults were still in charge. We've now had four years of Tory civil war, the right wing press shrieking to 'crush the saboteurs', the worst kind of xenophobia and deriding those 48% of us who weren't signed up to the whole project as remoaners and traitors.
And now this, with an outcome that (best case) will remove my rights to free movement, f**k over what remains of British manufacturing, and has/will do immense damage to my countries international standing. For what benefit? Blue Passports? The chance to water down environmental regulations, or do marginally better trade deals with Outer Mongolia than would have been possible within the EU? Maybe do a sweetheart deal with the US... oh, wait...
I must admit, I've always prided myself in being able to see both sides of arguments. But, perhaps mirroring the broader polarisation of the debate, I've found myself unable to emphasise with the pro-Brexit side of the argument. Despite, in my younger years, having made a few of them over a pint or two.
Yeah, the situation we find ourselves in is owned by the Tory party, their cheerleaders, and an honourable mention must also go to Corbyn. Our country has been irreparably damaged, and I will do everything in my power to ensure it is not forgotten.
Clearly behind with the scare stories. We have already been assured that we won't be able to import anything from Norway because our ports will all be blocked with dead rotting sheep carcasses.
Those herrings are seriously nice. I've no idea what Gauke is on about.
I agree, but a certain conservative mentality - the classic Brexiter modality - really, really will nto touch them. Some years ago some older friends came round for dinner - pickled herring, M&S chicken pie, pud. Wouldn't look at the herring. Disaster easily averted - each got a one and a third portion of pie and I had four portions of herring for my starter and main.
Interesting. I have not tried pickled herring. I don't think of pickled things out of a jar as more than a garnish, even though I have a dozen different pickled things in the kitchen.
OTOH I have 2kg of kippers in the freezer.
Yum re the kippers.
Well worth trying the herring sometime. It's not usually very vinegary. Also keeps well in the fridge for months. Best eaten I think with some sort of veg or salad to cut its oiliness. I often have pickled (not just boiled) beetroot and fresh tomato with it which are both sharp in their different ways. Served with brown/wholemeal bread or boiled potatoes. Maybe yourt fishmonger sells pots of pickled herring. Or you can buy jars at IKEA for instance (in the food shop near the doors).
I'm a fan - you can get them in Waitrose too, next to the lumpen caviar (which is also good). They're tangy, not a taste the British diet has much of, so a genuine change of flavour.
Caviar from Waitrose.
Remind me why we lost the red wall?
About £2.50, lumpfish "caviar" is great value. Cheap as chips...
We strangely also hear less and less about how much better other European countries are doing than the UK.
The reality is Europe has collectively failed on COVID.
You’re not wrong. Although the UK has failed harder overall primarily because of 50 nutters on the Tory benches. Can’t blame Johnson for everything although he carries almost all the first wave shitstorm on his back. No one bar Norway and Finland in Europe is coming out of this with any glory.
Johnson locked down too late in the Spring -- but the fault there lies with the advice from SAGE which was predicting that the epidemic was growing more slowly in the early days than it was in reality.
I don't blame SAGE, but i don't blame Johnson either. It has been curious. The countries with modellers and epidemiology experts have not by and large done very well. The best response (it now turns out) was to shut down early and keep everything shut down (Norway, NZ)
I think Norway's PM said she panicked and closed everything down out of fear on the day the country recorded first Covid death.
It turns out that was the right thing to do. Blind panic turned out to be a surer guide than the science.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Very unlikely. A No Deal Brexit will destroy this country. The only silver lining is that the Conservative Party who are ultimately responsible for this calamity will be destroyed too! It will be brutal and it will be quick!
You're a prime example of this catastrophism. It's tediously adolescent.
How exactly will a No Deal Brexit "destroy the country, brutally and quickly". How will it be a "calamity"?
What do you think will happen? It's no good just making assertions, what's your evidence, your argument?
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
What do you think will happen if No Deal is genuinely disastrous? Will Boris beg forgiveness for his errors and resign, for example?
Yes, I think he might
Why should he?
He will have done exactly what the Brexit enthusiasts demanded. I would have thought his stock within the Parliamentary Conservative Party will have gone through the roof, not to mention the blue-rinse brigade.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Wouldn't think so, not for zing - the flavour is too mild.
PS If trying to avoid cooking yoiu might as well serve the herring with pickled beetroot (not too sweet), raw tomato and a creamy potato salad or sour cream (as Foxy said) from the deli counter/cooler, with some bread to mop up - the combination of flavour and texture should be good and it saves time and washing up!
We strangely also hear less and less about how much better other European countries are doing than the UK.
The reality is Europe has collectively failed on COVID.
You’re not wrong. Although the UK has failed harder overall primarily because of 50 nutters on the Tory benches. Can’t blame Johnson for everything although he carries almost all the first wave shitstorm on his back. No one bar Norway and Finland in Europe is coming out of this with any glory.
Johnson locked down too late in the Spring -- but the fault there lies with the advice from SAGE which was predicting that the epidemic was growing more slowly in the early days than it was in reality.
I don't blame SAGE, but i don't blame Johnson either. It has been curious. The countries with modellers and epidemiology experts have not by and large done very well. The best response (it now turns out) was to shut down early and keep everything shut down (Norway, NZ)
I think Norway's PM said she panicked and closed everything down out of fear on the day the country recorded first Covid death.
It turns out that was the right thing to do. Blind panic turned out to be a surer guide than the science.
Sure, but the alarms were sounding before then quite loudly. Some things (like letting bloody Cheltenham or the Liverpool match go ahead) were just criminally stupid even at the time. I can, just about, accept the argument for not locking down immediately but the signals being sent at that time do not make me look favourably on doing so.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Will we actually get a decision tomorrow, or will BoZo fudge it again?
Really not sure but at the end of the day, BoZo is a coward. And like all cowards he will give excuses and dress things up colourfully, but the only way out of this is for the UK Government to completely capitulate and agree to the EU terms on the table. It's madness to do otherwise.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Wouldn't think so, not for zing - the flavour is too mild.
PS If trying to avoid cooking yoiu might as well serve the herring with pickled beetroot (not too sweet), raw tomato and a creamy potato salad or sour cream (as Foxy said) from the deli counter/cooler, with some bread to mop up - the combination of flavour and texture should be good and it saves time and washing up!
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
What do you think will happen if No Deal is genuinely disastrous? Will Boris beg forgiveness for his errors and resign, for example?
Yes, I think he might
Why should he?
He will have done exactly what the Brexit enthusiasts demanded. I would have thought his stock within the Parliamentary Conservative Party will have gone through the roof, not to mention the blue-rinse brigade.
I am reliably informed the gent prefers blondes, actually.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
If you will forgive me a brief rant/moment of introspection on how my personal views have evolved, on the eve of what seems more and more likely to be a no-deal.
I'd always considered myself a Eurosceptic, and in my younger years I will admit to being a bit of a Dan Hannan fanboy. Voted Tory a few times. In the run up to the referendum, I was fairly on the fence re leave/remain. Probably fairly typical in that I had no great love for Brussels' impact on 'sovereignty', and did have concerns around immigration and the various other compromises that being a part of the club entailed. Having said that, being vaguely switched on I could see that there was no workable form of Brexit given the integration of our economies and the political infeasibility of a EFTA/Norway or Swiss style solution. So I voted remain, obviously.
On the metaphorical morning after 'ho hum', I thought, we're in for a political fudge of a soft brexit. How wrong I was, believing the adults were still in charge. We've now had four years of Tory civil war, the right wing press shrieking to 'crush the saboteurs', the worst kind of xenophobia and deriding those 48% of us who weren't signed up to the whole project as remoaners and traitors.
And now this, with an outcome that (best case) will remove my rights to free movement, f**k over what remains of British manufacturing, and has/will do immense damage to my countries international standing. For what benefit? Blue Passports? The chance to water down environmental regulations, or do marginally better trade deals with Outer Mongolia than would have been possible within the EU? Maybe do a sweetheart deal with the US... oh, wait...
I must admit, I've always prided myself in being able to see both sides of arguments. But, perhaps mirroring the broader polarisation of the debate, I've found myself unable to emphasise with the pro-Brexit side of the argument. Despite, in my younger years, having made a few of them over a pint or two.
Yeah, the situation we find ourselves in is owned by the Tory party, their cheerleaders, and an honourable mention must also go to Corbyn. Our country has been irreparably damaged, and I will do everything in my power to ensure it is not forgotten.
You are not alone in your thoughts, great post. I voted remain but thought and to an extent still think, there was a case for Brexit. It is the divisive and incompetent handling of Brexit by the Tory party that has done irreversible damage to our society not Brexit itself.
It is the divisive and incompetent handling of Brexit by the divisive and incompetent Tory party started way back in the 90's at the time of the Major government, long before anyone had thought of the word Brexit.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
What do you think will happen if No Deal is genuinely disastrous? Will Boris beg forgiveness for his errors and resign, for example?
Yes, I think he might
Why should he?
He will have done exactly what the Brexit enthusiasts demanded. I would have thought his stock within the Parliamentary Conservative Party will have gone through the roof, not to mention the blue-rinse brigade.
The question was What would Boris do if No Deal Brexit is a "genuine disaster". By that I am presuming something like 10% unemployment within 6 months, a brutal run on the pound, a historic crash on the FTSE, total dangerous chaos at ports and factories, maybe even civil disorder.
That would be a disaster, and in that context I believe Boris would go.
Will we actually get a decision tomorrow, or will BoZo fudge it again?
Really not sure but at the end of the day, BoZo is a coward. And like all cowards he will give excuses and dress things up colourfully, but the only way out of this is for the UK Government to completely capitulate and agree to the EU terms on the table. It's madness to do otherwise.
Which they won't do because they know if they do they will be out of office. Stop having wet dreams most of us grow out of that in our teenage years
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Wouldn't think so, not for zing - the flavour is too mild.
PS If trying to avoid cooking yoiu might as well serve the herring with pickled beetroot (not too sweet), raw tomato and a creamy potato salad or sour cream (as Foxy said) from the deli counter/cooler, with some bread to mop up - the combination of flavour and texture should be good and it saves time and washing up!
I do like pickled herring and now I’m hungry...
Looking around, I can't find too many recipes (need to look harder), and most seem to involve simple flavours, and some form of egg and/or carb. Imply treatment rather like mackerel in some respects.
'Italy’s first wave was bad luck but the second wave, which has killed 25,000, was unforgivable. A sign of poor management and amateurish preparation.'
Mr. (Miss? Apologies for forgetting) S, possibly, but don't forget that Boris Johnson has fantasies of being Churchill. Defiance alone against Europe (yes, I'm aware the analogy is bullshit but I'm trying to imagine the trembling idiocy of the PM's brain) could fit the bill.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Very unlikely. A No Deal Brexit will destroy this country. The only silver lining is that the Conservative Party who are ultimately responsible for this calamity will be destroyed too! It will be brutal and it will be quick!
You're a prime example of this catastrophism. It's tediously adolescent.
How exactly will a No Deal Brexit "destroy the country, brutally and quickly". How will it be a "calamity"?
What do you think will happen? It's no good just making assertions, what's your evidence, your argument?
Time will tell as ever. We (i.e. you and me) will be relatively okay - us Metropolitan Elite types living in London are fairly well insulated. If however, you work in the manufacturing sector then you're f*cked. Have you been hearing what the big wigs in Nissan have been saying?
Having said that, GBP collapsing against the Sri Lankan Rupee is not exactly helpful and my Pension and Share savings will look ropey for a number of years (maybe forever).
No deal will be no big deal imo. But it does require a new trade policy. This cannot be outsourced to the EU any longer. So what will it be? We could of course mirror the current EU scheme, which seems to be what some commentators expect, i.e. that we apply the same tariffs to the EU as have hitherto applied to third countries. But that seems quite unimaginative and unambitious. WTO rules require uniformity in the application of tariffs and quotas to all other countries in the absence of an FTA. We could protect some industries by applying tariffs to hinder external competition. But that smacks of "picking winners", a policy justly ridiculed since the 70s. Or we could decide for free trade to benefit UK consumers by abolishing all tariffs and quotas on imports. There would be transition costs for businesses currently reliant on tariffs, and free trade would no doubt entail temporary support for them. But the logic of where we have got to suggests to me that this is the line that we'll follow.
I would guess (very guess) that pickled herring could go well as something to add zing, used like say Anchovies or Tinned Sardines. Say as an on-the-plate addition to a kedgeree or salad or pasta dish.
Might go well with a vegetarian version of something like fish fingers or a veg bake.
Wouldn't think so, not for zing - the flavour is too mild.
PS If trying to avoid cooking yoiu might as well serve the herring with pickled beetroot (not too sweet), raw tomato and a creamy potato salad or sour cream (as Foxy said) from the deli counter/cooler, with some bread to mop up - the combination of flavour and texture should be good and it saves time and washing up!
I do like pickled herring and now I’m hungry...
Looking around, I can't find too many recipes (need to look harder), and most seem to involve simple flavours, and some form of egg and/or carb. Imply treatment rather like mackerel in some respects.
Where's the best place to order from?
Most supermarkets sell both pickled herring and ready to eat mackeral (usually smoked)
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
Applying your views as a tourist and travel writer to various cities’ financial market prospects is hardly robust or reliable analysis, though, is it?
Nor is citing historical precedent when our imminent departure from a free trade confederation directly to a position with no trade agreements at all with any of our principal neighbours is without historical precedent.
The City has endured the Great Plague, the Napoleonic era, the Great War, the Second World War, and the end of Empire. It has endured brutal competition from Amsterdam, followed by New York, and now Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong.
It has survived them all, and gone on to greater prosperity.
Maybe half a million highly skilled Hong Kongers will move to the UK in the next few years. Many of these will be experts in finance, business, etc. A massive boost to the UK economy, esp London.
The future is cloudy and very unsettled but it is not all dark. Enough shroud waving.
Next year, deal or no deal, the UK economy will grow by more than 5%. Leavers will point to a triumph, because it will be amongst the fastest in Europe. Remainers will point out that (a) this still leaves our economy smaller than it was before Covid,(b) the UK was amongst the worst hit by Covid and if you take an average....(c) it would have been even better if we had remained.
Both will be true but good luck to those arguing (c).
London will continue to lead that charge in financial services, law, IT and technology stocks, property development and no doubt other things we have not even thought of.
The reality is that arguments will go on but, thankfully, so will life.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
What do you think will happen if No Deal is genuinely disastrous? Will Boris beg forgiveness for his errors and resign, for example?
Yes, I think he might
Why should he?
He will have done exactly what the Brexit enthusiasts demanded. I would have thought his stock within the Parliamentary Conservative Party will have gone through the roof, not to mention the blue-rinse brigade.
I am reliably informed the gent prefers blondes, actually.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
It really isn't Let them eat cake. I was talking in the context of retirement
That means there are millions of Brits with houses worth north of £500k. If you are thinking of retiring you will obviously sell your £500k+UK house, and if you then spend that £500k on a house in Albufeira you get residency. Simples.
We strangely also hear less and less about how much better other European countries are doing than the UK.
The reality is Europe has collectively failed on COVID.
You’re not wrong. Although the UK has failed harder overall primarily because of 50 nutters on the Tory benches. Can’t blame Johnson for everything although he carries almost all the first wave shitstorm on his back. No one bar Norway and Finland in Europe is coming out of this with any glory.
Johnson locked down too late in the Spring -- but the fault there lies with the advice from SAGE which was predicting that the epidemic was growing more slowly in the early days than it was in reality.
I don't blame SAGE, but i don't blame Johnson either. It has been curious. The countries with modellers and epidemiology experts have not by and large done very well. The best response (it now turns out) was to shut down early and keep everything shut down (Norway, NZ)
I think Norway's PM said she panicked and closed everything down out of fear on the day the country recorded first Covid death.
It turns out that was the right thing to do. Blind panic turned out to be a surer guide than the science.
Sure, but the alarms were sounding before then quite loudly. Some things (like letting bloody Cheltenham or the Liverpool match go ahead) were just criminally stupid even at the time. I can, just about, accept the argument for not locking down immediately but the signals being sent at that time do not make me look favourably on doing so.
But, as always, we can look at Wales & Scotland. Did they do any better?
I can't comment on Scotland -- but the Welsh Government allowed a series of huge Stereophonics gigs at Motorpoint Arena, Cardiff to take place on March 14 and 15 (that is, 2 days after the Cheltenham Races).
There were calls from medics that the gigs should be cancelled beforehand, but the Welsh Government did nothing.
The gigs are implicated in the early spikes of cases in Gwent.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Stag weekend somewhere, two blokes get back to their 8th floor room -
"Here's a counterfactual.
What if we jump off the balcony and..... it turns out we hit the swimming pool and not the concrete?"
The worst peacetime conditions for any Government in a century and their polling is still quite strong. Maybe, just maybe, the obsessions of a certain class of fault-finders are not shared quite as universally as they imagine?
I think one problem Labour have is people like their Shadow Education Secretary
She fell into a massive trap yesterday spouting off against the Empire, Falklands War and demanding the curriculum be "decolonised".
This will have been heard loud and clear in the Red Wall and will have set Starmer even further back.
I liked the way she deigned to allow - even though she was a founding member of Labour Against Private Schools - that abolition would 'not be a priority' under a Labour Government.
It takes some talent to lose both the Red and the Blue Wall at the same time.
It's simply real politik. Abolition can be presented by bad actors as both authoritarian and class war at the same time and it would probably cost votes. Just leave it. I do hope they will summon up the immense courage required to retain the ending of the tax breaks, though. It will be disappointing to me if they feel they can't even go that far.
The major problem that policy would have is that quite a number of charities do less charitable work* than many private schools. Bursaries and scholarships etc.
So, either the bar of charitable status would have to be raised. Or a deluge of lawsuits on the basis of equality of application of the law**....
*There a quite a few charities that are essentially corporations that campaign on issues. Actually feeding the hungry etc, not so much.
**Oxford City Council once tried to declare that all the boatclubs on the river were businesses and would be charged business rates on their properties. This foundered on the fact, that in law, this was technically bollocks.
Yes. It's far from the only loophole, I'm sure. Perhaps some others can be closed too. Not easy, I don't suppose. Then again, few policies that make a difference and go against the wishes of powerful vested interests are easy. But if Labour, the main party of the Left in this country, were to shy away from that task, it would be a bit sad.
The ironic bit, is that when state schools appear that actually attract large numbers of middle class parents, various idiots appear to scream "they are not diverse". Based on the free school meal numbers.
Which I find especially funny, when, as in this part of London, the middle class families in question are the epitome of diversity - generally at least 2 nationalities per family....
Will we actually get a decision tomorrow, or will BoZo fudge it again?
Really not sure but at the end of the day, BoZo is a coward. And like all cowards he will give excuses and dress things up colourfully, but the only way out of this is for the UK Government to completely capitulate and agree to the EU terms on the table. It's madness to do otherwise.
Which they won't do because they know if they do they will be out of office. Stop having wet dreams most of us grow out of that in our teenage years
So it's Party over Country as ever for the Tories then?
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
"If the poor cannot go to Portugal, let them eat Nandos"
How exactly will a No Deal Brexit "destroy the country, brutally and quickly". How will it be a "calamity"?
What do you think will happen? It's no good just making assertions, what's your evidence, your argument?
Scottish secession
It could happen quickly, and would be a disaster, economically, politically, culturally.
Tell me that's not calamitous?
That's a possibility - at some point - anyway, not sure it's significantly affected by No Deal. And it cannot happen quickly because the Tories won't allow a vote until 2024.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
It really isn't Let them eat cake. I was talking in the context of retirement
That means there are millions of Brits with houses worth north of £500k. If you are thinking of retiring you will obviously sell your £500k+UK house, and if you then spend that £500k on a house in Albufeira you get residency. Simples.
So it is possible to retire to Portugal. And Ireland. And that's it.
Covid: Christmas five-day relaxation period 'a mistake'
Prof Bauld told BBC Breakfast that "from a public health perspective, I have to be perfectly honest, I think this is a mistake and I think people, even though we're permitted to do this, I think people have to think very carefully whether they can see loved ones outside or do it in a very, very modest way".
She added there was "nothing to stop" governments reversing the rules, "but the problem is they've made that commitment to people across the UK, and that may affect trust in government if they roll back on that".
Will we actually get a decision tomorrow, or will BoZo fudge it again?
Really not sure but at the end of the day, BoZo is a coward. And like all cowards he will give excuses and dress things up colourfully, but the only way out of this is for the UK Government to completely capitulate and agree to the EU terms on the table. It's madness to do otherwise.
Which they won't do because they know if they do they will be out of office. Stop having wet dreams most of us grow out of that in our teenage years
So it's Party over Country as ever for the Tories then?
Well apart from the fact I am not a tory and haven't voted for them in a decade and regularly excoriate people on here that vote tory like hyufd. The fact I won't vote anti semite party doesn't make me a tory
No deal will be no big deal imo. But it does require a new trade policy. This cannot be outsourced to the EU any longer. So what will it be? We could of course mirror the current EU scheme, which seems to be what some commentators expect, i.e. that we apply the same tariffs to the EU as have hitherto applied to third countries. But that seems quite unimaginative and unambitious. WTO rules require uniformity in the application of tariffs and quotas to all other countries in the absence of an FTA. We could protect some industries by applying tariffs to hinder external competition. But that smacks of "picking winners", a policy justly ridiculed since the 70s. Or we could decide for free trade to benefit UK consumers by abolishing all tariffs and quotas on imports. There would be transition costs for businesses currently reliant on tariffs, and free trade would no doubt entail temporary support for them. But the logic of where we have got to suggests to me that this is the line that we'll follow.
Farmers, fishermen and other core Brexit voters will love that.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
It really isn't Let them eat cake. I was talking in the context of retirement
That means there are millions of Brits with houses worth north of £500k. If you are thinking of retiring you will obviously sell your £500k+UK house, and if you then spend that £500k on a house in Albufeira you get residency. Simples.
So it is possible to retire to Portugal. And Ireland. And that's it.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
It really isn't Let them eat cake. I was talking in the context of retirement
That means there are millions of Brits with houses worth north of £500k. If you are thinking of retiring you will obviously sell your £500k+UK house, and if you then spend that £500k on a house in Albufeira you get residency. Simples.
So it is possible to retire to Portugal. And Ireland. And that's it.
You can still retire lots of places in Europe and beyond, if you can show you have means to support yourself. You can retire to Thailand if you have just £20k and a small pension. Actually quite a tempting option.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Stag weekend somewhere, two blokes get back to their 8th floor room -
"Here's a counterfactual.
What if we jump off the balcony and..... it turns out we hit the swimming pool and not the concrete?"
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I valued our place in it.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Stag weekend somewhere, two blokes get back to their 8th floor room -
"Here's a counterfactual.
What if we jump off the balcony and..... it turns out we hit the swimming pool and not the concrete?"
That scene was running through my mind when I typed that. Could have been a good film but Connery's lack of interest in returning after Lazenby quit is palpable.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
It's not totally beyond the realms of possibility if No Deal escalates into an existential crisis and opinion in Scotland moves strongly behind independence, there could be a kind of velvet divorce, and Westminster would simply pass legislation to dissolve the union.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
Applying your views as a tourist and travel writer to various cities’ financial market prospects is hardly robust or reliable analysis, though, is it?
Nor is citing historical precedent when our imminent departure from a free trade confederation directly to a position with no trade agreements at all with any of our principal neighbours is without historical precedent.
The City has endured the Great Plague, the Napoleonic era, the Great War, the Second World War, and the end of Empire. It has endured brutal competition from Amsterdam, followed by New York, and now Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong.
It has survived them all, and gone on to greater prosperity.
Maybe half a million highly skilled Hong Kongers will move to the UK in the next few years. Many of these will be experts in finance, business, etc. A massive boost to the UK economy, esp London.
The future is cloudy and very unsettled but it is not all dark. Enough shroud waving.
But you are simply trying to project past history forwards.
Mr Dancer of this parish will be able to summon up multiple examples of those from later Rome who cited its previous glories as reasons as to why it would continue to go from strength to strength. Whereas in real history it was sacked by Vandals and Vikings and never recovered its predominant position.
That the city of London survived 17th century plague is of minimal reassurance in the 21st century.
But the many predictions by Remainer "finance experts" - not newt painters - of a massive swift exodus from the City, have been proven to be wildly wrong. So, there's that. The Remainers got it wrong.
And I suppose you could say they might still get it right.... but at some point they become cultists predicting Doomsday who keep shifting the date when it doesn't happen.
The mistake remain campaigners made was to try and big up the economic and financial consequences of Brexit - particularly with no deal - such that we’d all be foraging for mushrooms and boiling up weeds within days of our exit. Whereas the reality was always that a no deal Brexit would be slow acting poison, progressively killing trade, business and jobs.
As others have pointed out, the real message of the ‘crying wolf’ parable is that the wolf does actually turn up at the end.
I have always said that Brexit will be a damp squib, disappointing nearly everyone.
Brexitism will end in rust rather than bust.
I broadly agree which is why all the whingeing and wailing is so damaging - it creates a bar of gloomy expectations almost impossible to achieve - just like the original Remain campaign which was lost. Unless we are literally scrambling in the aisles for glass jars of herrings come January the public will simply go meh! and move on.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I valued our place in it.
Believe it or not my position is rather close to yours. I despised the arrogance, elitism, hypocrisy, and - particularly - the faux democracy of the EU.
And yet, I was still seduced by the EU dream of peace and free trade. There was an EU to be sold to the British people. Freedom of Movement, right across the most beautiful continent on earth! Go live in a shed in Attica! Work as a bullfighter in Seville!
More positivity from the Remain campaign might just have won the vote, and Brexit - which is a sad thing, even if arguably inevitable - might have been averted.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
Thanks to the odious nature of the current PM and the wretched state of the Governing Party in the UK, Scottish Independence is a given. It's not if, it's when. Very sad but wholly predictable.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
Thanks to the odious nature of the current PM and the wretched state of the Governing Party in the UK, Scottish Independence is a given. It's not if, it's when. Very sad but wholly predictable.
You bitter Remainers all seem very certain about things which are entirely unpredictable. Like angry foot stomping toddlers. Calm down and grow up.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
Applying your views as a tourist and travel writer to various cities’ financial market prospects is hardly robust or reliable analysis, though, is it?
Nor is citing historical precedent when our imminent departure from a free trade confederation directly to a position with no trade agreements at all with any of our principal neighbours is without historical precedent.
The City has endured the Great Plague, the Napoleonic era, the Great War, the Second World War, and the end of Empire. It has endured brutal competition from Amsterdam, followed by New York, and now Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong.
It has survived them all, and gone on to greater prosperity.
Maybe half a million highly skilled Hong Kongers will move to the UK in the next few years. Many of these will be experts in finance, business, etc. A massive boost to the UK economy, esp London.
The future is cloudy and very unsettled but it is not all dark. Enough shroud waving.
But you are simply trying to project past history forwards.
Mr Dancer of this parish will be able to summon up multiple examples of those from later Rome who cited its previous glories as reasons as to why it would continue to go from strength to strength. Whereas in real history it was sacked by Vandals and Vikings and never recovered its predominant position.
That the city of London survived 17th century plague is of minimal reassurance in the 21st century.
But the many predictions by Remainer "finance experts" - not newt painters - of a massive swift exodus from the City, have been proven to be wildly wrong. So, there's that. The Remainers got it wrong.
And I suppose you could say they might still get it right.... but at some point they become cultists predicting Doomsday who keep shifting the date when it doesn't happen.
The mistake remain campaigners made was to try and big up the economic and financial consequences of Brexit - particularly with no deal - such that we’d all be foraging for mushrooms and boiling up weeds within days of our exit. Whereas the reality was always that a no deal Brexit would be slow acting poison, progressively killing trade, business and jobs.
As others have pointed out, the real message of the ‘crying wolf’ parable is that the wolf does actually turn up at the end.
I have always said that Brexit will be a damp squib, disappointing nearly everyone.
Brexitism will end in rust rather than bust.
I broadly agree which is why all the whingeing and wailing is so damaging - it creates a bar of gloomy expectations almost impossible to achieve - just like the original Remain campaign which was lost. Unless we are literally scrambling in the aisles for glass jars of herrings come January the public will simply go meh! and move on.
We strangely also hear less and less about how much better other European countries are doing than the UK.
The reality is Europe has collectively failed on COVID.
And the USA, and Latin America.
Easier to list the countries that haven't failed....There really isn't any / many "inbetween" countries now that kinda done pretty well. It basically they done well or its a shit show.
Truth is there is only so much governments, in the free, democratic world, can do. If people fail to use common sense and follow advice they will risk their own and other lives. It is what it is. All the rest is just yet more whingeing and wailing almost exclusively on party political lines.
Yep, not great. Scotland recorded over 1k again today which isn't great either. Nowhere near as bad as Wales but it suggests that the weather is driving people indoors and causing spread. Gotta say, I think we're looking at Tier 4 all around again when we come out the other side of this accursed Christmas Truce.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
I suspect the second is far likelier than the first; don't forget that a good chunk of the EU (the Baltic States, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus, even Portugal) are tax havens of one kind or another. What could the EU offer Ireland that would be worth losing their right to set their own corporation tax rates? Even at the height of the Eurozone crisis, when Ireland was completely over a barrel and on the verge of defaulting on all its debt, and seeing the complete destruction of their banking sector, they said no.
The budgets? Well that's much likelier.
The deal is if you want your government debt guaranteed by the ECB (or to be a part of the Eurobond program) then you need to have your budget approved. But while that's a deal that the Italians or Greeks might be forced to take, it's not one that would be of great interest to (say) the Luxembough-ese or the Estonians.
Here’s some good news to make the gloomy and doomy more cheerful. Much ado about nothing really.
“Brexit has failed to deliver a big hit to financial services employment in London, Financial Times research has shown, with international banks maintaining most of their staff since the vote to leave the EU and big asset managers hiring in the UK capital.
Initial warnings that tens of thousands of jobs would leave the City as a result of the 2016 Brexit vote have been drastically scaled back. An FT survey of 24 large international banks and asset managers found that the majority had increased their London headcount over the past five years.”
Yet.
In the meantime over £1.8 trillion pounds worth of assets have been moved from the UK to the EU by the financial services sector down to Brexit.
We were told hundreds of thousands of City jobs would leave. They haven't.
As you say, they might still go, but, equally, the City of London under its own UK regulations might actually grow, finding new markets - as it has done over the centuries. We don't know, but the second option is historically the likelier.
The problem for Europe is that there is not one obvious alternative. Those that have left the City have all gone off in different directions, to cities which all have their own issues
Paris: great city but French speaking, quite hostile, schools an issue, riots Amsterdam: bit small, bit dull Dublin: very small, rain Frankfurt: boring as fuck, German Luxembourg: small, boring as fuck, where even is it?
Because of this splintering none of them will ever have the critical mass of lawyers, bankers, regulators, financiers, managers, that you get in English-speaking London, making it a world leading finance centre.
Two years ago I was truly fearful for the City. Now I think, Deal or No Deal, it will endure and eventually thrive. That's what it does.
Applying your views as a tourist and travel writer to various cities’ financial market prospects is hardly robust or reliable analysis, though, is it?
Nor is citing historical precedent when our imminent departure from a free trade confederation directly to a position with no trade agreements at all with any of our principal neighbours is without historical precedent.
The City has endured the Great Plague, the Napoleonic era, the Great War, the Second World War, and the end of Empire. It has endured brutal competition from Amsterdam, followed by New York, and now Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong.
It has survived them all, and gone on to greater prosperity.
Maybe half a million highly skilled Hong Kongers will move to the UK in the next few years. Many of these will be experts in finance, business, etc. A massive boost to the UK economy, esp London.
The future is cloudy and very unsettled but it is not all dark. Enough shroud waving.
But you are simply trying to project past history forwards.
Mr Dancer of this parish will be able to summon up multiple examples of those from later Rome who cited its previous glories as reasons as to why it would continue to go from strength to strength. Whereas in real history it was sacked by Vandals and Vikings and never recovered its predominant position.
That the city of London survived 17th century plague is of minimal reassurance in the 21st century.
But the many predictions by Remainer "finance experts" - not newt painters - of a massive swift exodus from the City, have been proven to be wildly wrong. So, there's that. The Remainers got it wrong.
And I suppose you could say they might still get it right.... but at some point they become cultists predicting Doomsday who keep shifting the date when it doesn't happen.
The mistake remain campaigners made was to try and big up the economic and financial consequences of Brexit - particularly with no deal - such that we’d all be foraging for mushrooms and boiling up weeds within days of our exit. Whereas the reality was always that a no deal Brexit would be slow acting poison, progressively killing trade, business and jobs.
As others have pointed out, the real message of the ‘crying wolf’ parable is that the wolf does actually turn up at the end.
I have always said that Brexit will be a damp squib, disappointing nearly everyone.
Brexitism will end in rust rather than bust.
I broadly agree which is why all the whingeing and wailing is so damaging - it creates a bar of gloomy expectations almost impossible to achieve - just like the original Remain campaign which was lost. Unless we are literally scrambling in the aisles for glass jars of herrings come January the public will simply go meh! and move on.
True that
The other message of the boy crying wolf parable was that when the wolf actually turned up the one it ate was the boy that had been crying wolf
Covid: Christmas five-day relaxation period 'a mistake'
Prof Bauld told BBC Breakfast that "from a public health perspective, I have to be perfectly honest, I think this is a mistake and I think people, even though we're permitted to do this, I think people have to think very carefully whether they can see loved ones outside or do it in a very, very modest way".
She added there was "nothing to stop" governments reversing the rules, "but the problem is they've made that commitment to people across the UK, and that may affect trust in government if they roll back on that".
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
The twat was for BoZo, not you, but of course Holyrood can call a referendum
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Such a vote would be boycotted en masse by No voters. Rendering it politically pointless and deeply destructive of the Indy cause. There might be legal action against Nat politicians. The chances of indy would be set back by many years.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
Give me MY freedom of movement and I will gladly change my mind. (I couldn't care less about the rest of you and your freedom of movement by the way).
I regret the loss of FoM, it is the saddest thing about Brexit, to my mind. But, I believe we are in a smallish minority in that regret. Very few Brits really consider emigrating to Europe to work (partly because language). More Brits go to Oz.
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
"eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal"
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
It really isn't Let them eat cake. I was talking in the context of retirement
That means there are millions of Brits with houses worth north of £500k. If you are thinking of retiring you will obviously sell your £500k+UK house, and if you then spend that £500k on a house in Albufeira you get residency. Simples.
So it is possible to retire to Portugal. And Ireland. And that's it.
Spain have the same rule as Portugal AFAIK.
Do not think there is any such rule about a €500k house in Spain. You certainly have to prove an address and health cover but that has been the case for several years now - even for pensioners.
What if No Deal happens and..... it turns out it's no big deal?
eg There are a few lorry queues for a few weeks. A brief shortage of prosecco. Camembert increases by 20% in price, so people switch to British versions.
And that's it.
So many of us - even on this site - are using words like "calamity", and "disaster". We are all told we are driving off a cliff.
What if it just turns out we are driving through a muddy field then back on to a normal road? What would that do to politics? Would Remainers change their minds?
I'm not predicting this, but it is a politically fascinating possibility, in multiple ways.
We'll stay a first world wealthy nation, obviously, but will we prosper c.f. having a good and close relationship with the EU? It won't be provable either way - a pity since it means the "debate" has no end - but speaking for myself, yes, if I conclude that we are prospering (in this relative sense) from a position wholly outside the EU, and the condition lasts, this particular Remainer will change their mind. I will no longer consider Brexit to be a piece of immense stupidity.
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I really valued our place in it.
Out of curiousity with no attempt to trick you when would you consider the EU has gone too far towards being a superstate? Tax harmonisation? National budgets having to be approved by the commission? I suspect the first will certainly happen within the next 20 years as its already being talked about.
I suspect the second is far likelier than the first; don't forget that a good chunk of the EU (the Baltic States, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus, even Portugal) are tax havens of one kind or another. What could the EU offer Ireland that would be worth losing their right to set their own corporation tax rates? Even at the height of the Eurozone crisis, when Ireland was completely over a barrel and on the verge of defaulting on all its debt, and seeing the complete destruction of their banking sector, they said no.
The budgets? Well that's much likelier.
The deal is if you want your government debt guaranteed by the ECB (or to be a part of the Eurobond program) then you need to have your budget approved. But while that's a deal that the Italians or Greeks might be forced to take, it's not one that would be of great interest to (say) the Luxembough-ese or the Estonians.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum. That's all there is to it. Calling me "twat" does not change the law. Sorry.
I'm not sure that's true - while they may not be able to hold a referendum with a binding result in law, I'm sure they could hold an indicative vote say something like the Brexit vote in 2016.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
As I say below, if the vote was not sanctioned by Westminster - as in a legally binding referendum like indyref1 - it would be boycotted by No voters. The same thing happened in Catalunya and it did the Catalunyan indy cause no good at all.
But the Spanish Government at the time wasn't run by the Insane Clown Posse.
BoZo is the key.
Just as he excites the Little Englanders, the Scots fucking hate him.
Comments
The LibDems are in power with Labour in Wales.
Have you seen the COVID response in Wales? Labour & the the LibDems have actually managed to do worse than Bojo.
"We should have had a clear set of restrictions and stuck to them, with appropriate enforcement, rather than inventing a new policy for each week of the year."
Of course not. The response depends on the season & on a myriad local factors such as the R value or the population density or demographics. The best response actually does change with time.
Still, the poor showing from others shouldn’t stop us from learning the bloody lessons and holding those who didn’t (Johnson, Sunak, Patel) to account. The odd thing is that I agree with Stephen Bush that Hancock might be the under appreciated MVP of this situation. He’s consistently been right when the rest of them have been talking and eating shit, even while he’s continuously been sabotaged by Sunak on one flank and the Let-Er-Rip squad on the other.
Here we have a good number of older of both sexes, a lot of essentially MTBers, plus some families and quite a lot trying it out. In a town with lots of leisure trails, but not very many good cycle tracks.
They're clearly not a viable vegetarian addition.
The second worst has been those countries which were lucky in the spring assuming that it wasn't good luck but their own brilliance.
And anyway the people who have been enforcing fishing rules in France are the Gendarmerie Maritime, who have been part of the French Navy, since - apparently - 1337.
...but, but it was ALL Blair's fault. I read it on PB.com.
I would have thought Johnson very much appreciates the war leader notion the tabloids are bestowing upon him.
I don't need a viable vegetarian addition
The history of America - 1776-2076
You will still be able to buy a house in Europe, and retire there, and eg if you spend £500k on a house in Portugal you get permanent residency. Holidays will be virtually unaffected, it is not in the interests of the Spanish, Greek economies to make it tough for Brits to come visit. By the time foreign holidays are feasible again I predict Mediterranean countries will make arrangements for British travellers to use e-gates at customs: those threatened three hour queues will not materialise.
And people will still be able to go work in other European countries, if they have job offers, just as young Europeans will still flock to London,
Not that much will change on the surface, but something precious will have been lost: the idea you can go live anywhere at any time anywhere in Europe, that was a marvellous dream. Though it must also be said that the dream is somewhat dying within Europe too: see Macron's remarks about Schengen not working.
I don't blame SAGE, but i don't blame Johnson either. It has been curious. The countries with modellers and epidemiology experts have not by and large done very well. The best response (it now turns out) was to shut down early and keep everything shut down (Norway, NZ)
I think Norway's PM said she panicked and closed everything down out of fear on the day the country recorded first Covid death.
It turns out that was the right thing to do. Blind panic turned out to be a surer guide than the science.
How exactly will a No Deal Brexit "destroy the country, brutally and quickly". How will it be a "calamity"?
What do you think will happen? It's no good just making assertions, what's your evidence, your argument?
He will have done exactly what the Brexit enthusiasts demanded. I would have thought his stock within the Parliamentary Conservative Party will have gone through the roof, not to mention the blue-rinse brigade.
The attackers arrived on motorbikes and started shooting in to the air, causing people to flee, witnesses said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55288114
For all the talk of cake lately, there is a touch of the Marie Antoinette about that statement.
That would be a disaster, and in that context I believe Boris would go.
Where's the best place to order from?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-overtakes-britains-jflbtmj0k
Having said that, GBP collapsing against the Sri Lankan Rupee is not exactly helpful and my Pension and Share savings will look ropey for a number of years (maybe forever).
So what will it be? We could of course mirror the current EU scheme, which seems to be what some commentators expect, i.e. that we apply the same tariffs to the EU as have hitherto applied to third countries. But that seems quite unimaginative and unambitious. WTO rules require uniformity in the application of tariffs and quotas to all other countries in the absence of an FTA. We could protect some industries by applying tariffs to hinder external competition. But that smacks of "picking winners", a policy justly ridiculed since the 70s. Or we could decide for free trade to benefit UK consumers by abolishing all tariffs and quotas on imports. There would be transition costs for businesses currently reliant on tariffs, and free trade would no doubt entail temporary support for them. But the logic of where we have got to suggests to me that this is the line that we'll follow.
Both will be true but good luck to those arguing (c).
London will continue to lead that charge in financial services, law, IT and technology stocks, property development and no doubt other things we have not even thought of.
The reality is that arguments will go on but, thankfully, so will life.
It could happen quickly, and would be a disaster, economically, politically, culturally.
Tell me that's not calamitous?
The average house price in the UK is £315,000
https://www.zoopla.co.uk/house-prices/uk/
That means there are millions of Brits with houses worth north of £500k. If you are thinking of retiring you will obviously sell your £500k+UK house, and if you then spend that £500k on a house in Albufeira you get residency. Simples.
I can't comment on Scotland -- but the Welsh Government allowed a series of huge Stereophonics gigs at Motorpoint Arena, Cardiff to take place on March 14 and 15 (that is, 2 days after the Cheltenham Races).
There were calls from medics that the gigs should be cancelled beforehand, but the Welsh Government did nothing.
The gigs are implicated in the early spikes of cases in Gwent.
"Here's a counterfactual.
What if we jump off the balcony and..... it turns out we hit the swimming pool and not the concrete?"
Which I find especially funny, when, as in this part of London, the middle class families in question are the epitome of diversity - generally at least 2 nationalities per family....
Boris assured us it did...
https://www.siam-legal.com/thailand-visa/Thailand-Retirement-Visa.php
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EQDa1n7Tqw
I'll still consider it to be a real shame, however, that for reasons which in many cases do not bear close examination we chose to bail out of what I view as an essentially benign and enlightened project. Not the USE - imo a unicorn/bogeyman rather than a realistic prospect - but just the nations of Europe working together and attempting to build, in our corner of the planet, a place with positive progressive values to call home and be proud of.
I know this probably comes over as precious and liberal elitey, but it's genuinely how I feel about the issue. I did not vote Remain just purely because I thought Leave would hit the economy. I voted Remain because I believe in the European Union and I valued our place in it.
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
Twat.
source
https://www.internationaltaxreview.com/article/b1gtsh7n5788fw/eu-full-tax-harmonisation-under-the-new-von-der-leyen-commission
It would not be legally binding in very limited and specific ways, but BoZo has set the precedent for that.
RISING COVID CASES, NO DEAL BREXIT, RECESSION AND MAYBE LOCKDOWN
Tories retake the lead from Keith
And yet, I was still seduced by the EU dream of peace and free trade. There was an EU to be sold to the British people. Freedom of Movement, right across the most beautiful continent on earth! Go live in a shed in Attica! Work as a bullfighter in Seville!
More positivity from the Remain campaign might just have won the vote, and Brexit - which is a sad thing, even if arguably inevitable - might have been averted.
The budgets? Well that's much likelier.
The deal is if you want your government debt guaranteed by the ECB (or to be a part of the Eurobond program) then you need to have your budget approved. But while that's a deal that the Italians or Greeks might be forced to take, it's not one that would be of great interest to (say) the Luxembough-ese or the Estonians.
That really would be a disaster for the SNP and Sturgeon is far too sensible to go down that insane road. Which is why she is refusing to countenance it.
A 100% result for Indy would not persuade Nippy it was time to concede...
The Tories are failing to win over younger voters.
https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/member/member/accounting-business/2020/05/corporate/tax-regime.html
It's just not going to happen.
BoZo is the key.
Just as he excites the Little Englanders, the Scots fucking hate him.