Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Indeed, the first post election 2024 GOP nomination polls have Romney shooting up to second behind Trump if he runs again or Pence if he does not to be the Republican nominee to challenge by then President Biden or the Democratic nominee if he does not decide to run for re election
IIRC the Beeb stated a few weeks back that Rashford wouldn't be shortlisted for SPOTY as he had no significant sporting achievement to justify a nomination.
The BBC must have said it very quietly if he has not been laid off the boards on Betfair.
This from the "Daily Mail" among many indicating the same :
For each day, that's adding up the last seven days of reported cases, divided by population. That smooths out variations from weekday to weekday while being responsive to the most recent data.
Encouraging downward trend in England.
Scotland heading down more slowly, albeit from a lower starting level. Tier 4 in Glasgow and surrounds will hopefully reinforce that.
Rather noisy data in Wales after the firebreak knocked cases down by about 40%. They'll probably have to do more.
NI cases apparently reducing again after a plateau. Not sure why.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Indeed, the first post election 2024 GOP nomination polls have Romney shooting up to second behind Trump if he runs again or Pence if he does not to be the Republican nominee to challenge by then President Biden or the Democratic nominee if he does not decide to run for re election
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
The “hilarity” at the amount of “presidents” the EU have is just ignorance. The EU simply calls positions “president” where we would normally use “Chairperson” or “leader of X”.
So who is actually the President, the one person in charge?
Strikes me as a very odd question when we all know the EU is not that kind of arrangement, both to its benefit and its detriment.
IIRC the Beeb stated a few weeks back that Rashford wouldn't be shortlisted for SPOTY as he had no significant sporting achievement to justify a nomination.
The BBC must have said it very quietly if he has not been laid off the boards on Betfair.
This from the "Daily Mail" among many indicating the same :
I think a "special award" is likely as has happened in the past.
Except that a special award *would* be political which is what the BBC is trying to avoid.
Would it? Hasn't the PM thanked* Rashford for highlighting the issue?
*through gritted teeth presumably.
I doubt Boris has any objection to FSM or to Radford winning SPotY. The naysayers were Gove and Cummings, in my view, and they have form in their earlier hostility to Jamie Oliver's campaign to ban turkey twizzlers from school dinners 10 years back.
The point about SPotY is that is a two-stage contest. The first, being nominated, is about performance on the pitch, track or table; in the pool or in the ring. But the second is the public vote, more akin to Reality TV betting. Sporting achievement gets you into the Big Brother House, or into the Welsh Jungle, but from then on it is about who picks up the phone on the night.
The question is not about whether Ronnie has achieved more than Lewis but whether either has done enough to be amongst the 10 or 12 nominated. That is where the role of sport ends and it is down to public appeal.
Very much so.
The big question is do the BBC allow Rashford to be nominated, given his lack of on-the-pitch achievements?
If not, as I assume, then his short price (3/1 ish second fav) gives value to the rest of the field.
In previous years they've allowed up to a dozen nominations, it will be interesting to see how many horses take the start line in this race, given the paucity of actual achievement in an extraordinary year.
There have only been six nominees the past couple of years.
My guess at this stage is:
Lewis Hamilton Tyson Fury Ronnie O'Sullivan Jonathan Rea James Anderson Hollie Doyle
Marcus Rashford will be given a special award for his campaign.
A chance for one of Stodge's occasional glances at European polling.
Tonight, we kick off in Italy where a lot has been happening and primarily the political demise of Lega which has seen its support fall from the mid-30s to just 23% in the latest Tecne poll. The Social Democrats are on 21% but the big beneficiaries of the Lega's collapse have been the Brothers of Italy (FdL) who are now third with 17% in front of M5S with 14%. Elections aren't due until 2023 and FdL's poll numbers haven't yet translated into seats but they could be a big part of the next Italian Government.
On then to Germany where Angela Merkel celebrates 15 years as Chancellor - a remarkable achievement. The CDU/CSU remain solidly ahead with 36% with the Greens on 18%, SPD on 16%, AfD on 9% and both Linke and FDP on 7%.
In the Netherlands, the governing VVD has opened an 8-point advantage over the PVV but the coalition parties forming the Government have a combined vote share of 47% compared with 48% at the last election so remain very much in the driving seat.
Finally for now to Norway, where the Opposition Labour Party lead the governing Hojre Party by just one point (21.5-20.4) but both are well down on the last election. Labour is down 6 points and Hojre down 4.5 with the big gainers the Centre Party who are up 8.3 to 18.6% and hold a strong third.
For those not acquainted with Norwegian politics, the Centre Party is the successor to the old Farmers' Party. It's nationalist, protectionist, populist and strongly opposed to any idea of Norway joining the EU so obviously it's doing well in the current climate. Surprisingly, it has supported and been in coalition with centre-left Labour Governments and I suppose that's a possibility next time
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
To clarify: 1. European Parliament president – David-Maria Sassoli ; 2. European Council president – Charles Michel ; 3. European Commission president – Ursula von der Leyen ; 4. Presidency of the Council of the EU - unknown Belgian ; 5. President of the ECB - Christine Lagarde.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
Even though they have two presidents at once, where the US manage with one?
Dear me, that’s pathetic.
They have five at once: 1. European Parliament president – David-Maria Sassoli ; 2. European Council president – Charles Michel ; 3. European Commission president – Ursula von der Leyen ; 4. Presidency of the Council of the EU - unknown Belgian ; 5. President of the ECB - Christine Lagarde.
All it really indicates is the versatility of the word 'president'.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
To clarify: 1. European Parliament president – David-Maria Sassoli ; 2. European Council president – Charles Michel ; 3. European Commission president – Ursula von der Leyen ; 4. Presidency of the Council of the EU - unknown Belgian ; 5. President of the ECB - Christine Lagarde.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
Even though they have two presidents at once, where the US manage with one?
Dear me, that’s pathetic.
They have five at once: 1. European Parliament president – David-Maria Sassoli ; 2. European Council president – Charles Michel ; 3. European Commission president – Ursula von der Leyen ; 4. Presidency of the Council of the EU - unknown Belgian ; 5. President of the ECB - Christine Lagarde.
All it really indicates is the versatility of the word 'president'.
The point about SPotY is that is a two-stage contest. The first, being nominated, is about performance on the pitch, track or table; in the pool or in the ring. But the second is the public vote, more akin to Reality TV betting. Sporting achievement gets you into the Big Brother House, or into the Welsh Jungle, but from then on it is about who picks up the phone on the night.
The question is not about whether Ronnie has achieved more than Lewis but whether either has done enough to be amongst the 10 or 12 nominated. That is where the role of sport ends and it is down to public appeal.
Very much so.
The big question is do the BBC allow Rashford to be nominated, given his lack of on-the-pitch achievements?
If not, as I assume, then his short price (3/1 ish second fav) gives value to the rest of the field.
In previous years they've allowed up to a dozen nominations, it will be interesting to see how many horses take the start line in this race, given the paucity of actual achievement in an extraordinary year.
There have only been six nominees the past couple of years.
My guess at this stage is:
Lewis Hamilton Tyson Fury Ronnie O'Sullivan Jonathan Rea James Anderson Hollie Doyle
Marcus Rashford will be given a special award for his campaign.
Jofra Archer is another possibility alongside Anderson, though this would split the cricket vote.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
The “hilarity” at the amount of “presidents” the EU have is just ignorance. The EU simply calls positions “president” where we would normally use “Chairperson” or “leader of X”.
A chance for one of Stodge's occasional glances at European polling.
Tonight, we kick off in Italy where a lot has been happening and primarily the political demise of Lega which has seen its support fall from the mid-30s to just 23% in the latest Tecne poll. The Social Democrats are on 21% but the big beneficiaries of the Lega's collapse have been the Brothers of Italy (FdL) who are now third with 17% in front of M5S with 14%. Elections aren't due until 2023 and FdL's poll numbers haven't yet translated into seats but they could be a big part of the next Italian Government.
On then to Germany where Angela Merkel celebrates 15 years as Chancellor - a remarkable achievement. The CDU/CSU remain solidly ahead with 36% with the Greens on 18%, SPD on 16%, AfD on 9% and both Linke and FDP on 7%.
In the Netherlands, the governing VVD has opened an 8-point advantage over the PVV but the coalition parties forming the Government have a combined vote share of 47% compared with 48% at the last election so remain very much in the driving seat.
Finally for now to Norway, where the Opposition Labour Party lead the governing Hojre Party by just one point (21.5-20.4) but both are well down on the last election. Labour is down 6 points and Hojre down 4.5 with the big gainers the Centre Party who are up 8.3 to 18.6% and hold a strong third.
For those not acquainted with Norwegian politics, the Centre Party is the successor to the old Farmers' Party. It's nationalist, protectionist, populist and strongly opposed to any idea of Norway joining the EU so obviously it's doing well in the current climate. Surprisingly, it has supported and been in coalition with centre-left Labour Governments and I suppose that's a possibility next time
Italy looks like the only western European nation left where the populist right could form a government (combining Lega, FdL and Forza Italia).
In Germany looks like the Greens could have the balance of power next year between a coalition with the CDU or a centre left coalition with the SPD and Linke, Merkel not standing for Chancellor again at next year's election.
BTW, PBers may be surprised to learn that there was an item on tonight's Look North about the election of Labour's candidate for mayor of West Yorkshire.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Indeed, the first post election 2024 GOP nomination polls have Romney shooting up to second behind Trump if he runs again or Pence if he does not to be the Republican nominee to challenge by then President Biden or the Democratic nominee if he does not decide to run for re election
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
To clarify: 1. European Parliament president – David-Maria Sassoli ; 2. European Council president – Charles Michel ; 3. European Commission president – Ursula von der Leyen ; 4. Presidency of the Council of the EU - unknown Belgian ; 5. President of the ECB - Christine Lagarde.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Romney is 73 years old so in four or eight years time...
I know he is a bit young but he looks older than he is
I’m amazed he is 73!! He looks 15 years younger. He’s a teetotaller (and also avoids caffeine) but then so are Trump and Biden!
Obama was the odd man out - a drinker and a smoker (of various things).
I’m slightly surprised to learn that Bob Dole is still alive, and therefore the only other living Republican to have run for President.
But I suppose he’s a similar age to Jimmy Carter, who continues to defy all medical predictions and is still active at the grand old age of 96 despite his brush with cancer.
If he hangs on another couple of months, we'll be back up to six living Presidents.
Eat your heart out, EU.
Forgive my ignorance, but you've lost me there.
They only have 5 serving presidents.
Even though they have two presidents at once, where the US manage with one?
Dear me, that’s pathetic.
They have five at once: 1. European Parliament president – David-Maria Sassoli ; 2. European Council president – Charles Michel ; 3. European Commission president – Ursula von der Leyen ; 4. Presidency of the Council of the EU - unknown Belgian ; 5. President of the ECB - Christine Lagarde.
The ECB doesn't just set the monetary policy for the EU, but also - of course - for non-EU countries that have he Euro as their currency. There is also nothing in the constitution of the ECB that requires its President to be a citizen of the EU. So, calling them a "President" of the EU seems a little odd. Indeed, it's not clear they have anywhere near the power of the Governor of the Bank of England, and we wouldn't claim he was another leader of the UK alongside the Prime Minister.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
Indeed, the first post election 2024 GOP nomination polls have Romney shooting up to second behind Trump if he runs again or Pence if he does not to be the Republican nominee to challenge by then President Biden or the Democratic nominee if he does not decide to run for re election
A chance for one of Stodge's occasional glances at European polling.
Tonight, we kick off in Italy where a lot has been happening and primarily the political demise of Lega which has seen its support fall from the mid-30s to just 23% in the latest Tecne poll. The Social Democrats are on 21% but the big beneficiaries of the Lega's collapse have been the Brothers of Italy (FdL) who are now third with 17% in front of M5S with 14%. Elections aren't due until 2023 and FdL's poll numbers haven't yet translated into seats but they could be a big part of the next Italian Government.
On then to Germany where Angela Merkel celebrates 15 years as Chancellor - a remarkable achievement. The CDU/CSU remain solidly ahead with 36% with the Greens on 18%, SPD on 16%, AfD on 9% and both Linke and FDP on 7%.
In the Netherlands, the governing VVD has opened an 8-point advantage over the PVV but the coalition parties forming the Government have a combined vote share of 47% compared with 48% at the last election so remain very much in the driving seat.
Finally for now to Norway, where the Opposition Labour Party lead the governing Hojre Party by just one point (21.5-20.4) but both are well down on the last election. Labour is down 6 points and Hojre down 4.5 with the big gainers the Centre Party who are up 8.3 to 18.6% and hold a strong third.
For those not acquainted with Norwegian politics, the Centre Party is the successor to the old Farmers' Party. It's nationalist, protectionist, populist and strongly opposed to any idea of Norway joining the EU so obviously it's doing well in the current climate. Surprisingly, it has supported and been in coalition with centre-left Labour Governments and I suppose that's a possibility next time
Helmut Kohl managed 16 years and 26 days. Looks like Merkel will fall just short of that unless the coalition talks after the election in September drag on like last time round.
This is partly on the presumption of a Brexit deal, which I think will be finalised during the 1st week of December, with final chess pieces gradually moving into place over the next 2 weeks.
The lack of any big Brexit stories in the Sunday papers does suggest a deal of some kind is in the offing.
Do you think this means it is inevitable we will join the euro, and lead the creation of a new federal tax system, police force and European navy as part of our first joint presidency of the council and commission?
National currencies are so passe. Within a decade the British government will be forced to borrow in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: the unexplainable in pursuit of the indefinable.
Ultimately, all a currency is is something whose scarcity is guaranteed. If human beings no longer trust the scarcity of their government issued currency they will look for alternatives.
It wasn't that long ago that the UK was forced to borrow in Yen, Swiss Francs, Dollars and Deutschemarks as well as Pounds - simply Brits didn't trust the UK government not to inflate away their savings.
If we were to go through another period, like the 1970s, when interest rates were in double digits, I have little doubt that people would seek to put their money in alternatives.
Of course, it may be that the current unbridled printing of money by governments around the world does not lead to inflation...
I've been tuned out from politics last day or so but it looks like they are really going for it in Michigan. There seems to be incredible pressure from the local Republicans (in the form of a tweet saying there absolutely is no pressure *wink*) for the certification board not to certify the results.
For the first time I'm nervous about my Biden +48.5 bet.
A chance for one of Stodge's occasional glances at European polling.
Tonight, we kick off in Italy where a lot has been happening and primarily the political demise of Lega which has seen its support fall from the mid-30s to just 23% in the latest Tecne poll. The Social Democrats are on 21% but the big beneficiaries of the Lega's collapse have been the Brothers of Italy (FdL) who are now third with 17% in front of M5S with 14%. Elections aren't due until 2023 and FdL's poll numbers haven't yet translated into seats but they could be a big part of the next Italian Government.
On then to Germany where Angela Merkel celebrates 15 years as Chancellor - a remarkable achievement. The CDU/CSU remain solidly ahead with 36% with the Greens on 18%, SPD on 16%, AfD on 9% and both Linke and FDP on 7%.
In the Netherlands, the governing VVD has opened an 8-point advantage over the PVV but the coalition parties forming the Government have a combined vote share of 47% compared with 48% at the last election so remain very much in the driving seat.
Finally for now to Norway, where the Opposition Labour Party lead the governing Hojre Party by just one point (21.5-20.4) but both are well down on the last election. Labour is down 6 points and Hojre down 4.5 with the big gainers the Centre Party who are up 8.3 to 18.6% and hold a strong third.
For those not acquainted with Norwegian politics, the Centre Party is the successor to the old Farmers' Party. It's nationalist, protectionist, populist and strongly opposed to any idea of Norway joining the EU so obviously it's doing well in the current climate. Surprisingly, it has supported and been in coalition with centre-left Labour Governments and I suppose that's a possibility next time
Italy looks like the only western European nation left where the populist right could form a government (combining Lega, FdL and Forza Italia).
In Germany looks like the Greens could have the balance of power next year between a coalition with the CDU or a centre left coalition with the SPD and Linke, Merkel not standing for Chancellor again at next year's election.
What's remarkable about Italy is that they cycle through their political parties at such a rate. A decade ago, soft Left Social Democrats were well above a fractious bunch of "other". Then, M5S won the election, went into power with La Liga. Then they split up. Liga soared to commanding leads... and then lost them to a political party with similar policies (FdL). Liga and FdL now seem to spend most of their time attacking each other.
Remember Italy gives bonus seats to whoever comes first. So it could be three or four parties competing to see who gets the "boost".
I wonder if all these lower level GOP politicians who often owe their elected positions to the fact that Democrat voters don't tend to bother with minor races, realise that they are laying the ground for a massive increase in Democrat voter engagement at every level? And could sweep them away as a result.
And all for a battle that they will inevitably lose.
Right now, the Michigan Republican leadership thinks "ah, it is the least resistance to say we're going to study them and then we'll certify them after proving they're valid." The problem is that their delay in certification opens the floodgates on Parler: if they're examining them, then there must be something wrong with them...
And suddenly the least resistance from the board is now not to certify the results and to abrogate responsibility.
What's scary, of course, is that Michigan wasn't even particularly close. 3% is a pretty decent margin (very similar to the EU one).
Choosing not to certify will end up increasing pressure on other Boards of Electors.
The possibility of something very bad happening is still small, but it's definitely there.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Right now, the Michigan Republican leadership thinks "ah, it is the least resistance to say we're going to study them and then we'll certify them after proving they're valid." The problem is that their delay in certification opens the floodgates on Parler: if they're examining them, then there must be something wrong with them...
And suddenly the least resistance from the board is now not to certify the results and to abrogate responsibility.
What's scary, of course, is that Michigan wasn't even particularly close. 3% is a pretty decent margin (very similar to the EU one).
Choosing not to certify will end up increasing pressure on other Boards of Electors.
The possibility of something very bad happening is still small, but it's definitely there.
(
Exactly, this is a series of tiny pebbles creating an avalanche moment.
For me you can trace this back to the networks failing to call Pennsylvania before the first weekend.
Everyone and their dog knew that the remaining postal were going to split heavily for Biden and he would win it, failing to make that call was the first crack.
Right now, the Michigan Republican leadership thinks "ah, it is the least resistance to say we're going to study them and then we'll certify them after proving they're valid." The problem is that their delay in certification opens the floodgates on Parler: if they're examining them, then there must be something wrong with them...
And suddenly the least resistance from the board is now not to certify the results and to abrogate responsibility.
What's scary, of course, is that Michigan wasn't even particularly close. 3% is a pretty decent margin (very similar to the EU one).
Choosing not to certify will end up increasing pressure on other Boards of Electors.
The possibility of something very bad happening is still small, but it's definitely there.
(
These Michigan canvassers haven't remotely got the law on their side. If they don't certify they are quite possibly committing a criminal offence. State law doesn't allow for "an audit" in advance of certification. And they serve at the pleasure of the (Democrat) Governor who can fire them and put somebody else in their place.
And even if somehow things don't certify, the state legislature has no role in selecting electors under any circumstances.
If we're going to include the President of the ECB as a President of the EU, then surely we need to include the twelve (12) Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks in the US?
Is the Trump regime trying to provoke a financial crisis? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has ordered the Fed (against the latter's expressed wish) to return emergency funds.
But there’s another possibility. An outgoing administration has little incentive to make life easy for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, who takes over on Jan. 20. Removing the funding facilities might create problems for him, because their very existence has given banks and financial investors confidence to lend. Republicans’ apparent rediscovery of fiscal discipline, after running up a $3 trillion deficit this year, isn’t fully convincing.
All these shenanigans in the GOP aren't creating long term problems for the Democrats. Their voter base is secure, and no doubt growing (if only because of the likely increased engagement from natural supporters). It is obviously a problem for America. But electorally it is a disaster for the Republicans.
If we're going to include the President of the ECB as a President of the EU, then surely we need to include the twelve (12) Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks in the US?
And of course we have The Truss as President of the Board of Trade.
Is the Trump regime trying to provoke a financial crisis? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has ordered the Fed (against the latter's expressed wish) to return emergency funds.
But there’s another possibility. An outgoing administration has little incentive to make life easy for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, who takes over on Jan. 20. Removing the funding facilities might create problems for him, because their very existence has given banks and financial investors confidence to lend. Republicans’ apparent rediscovery of fiscal discipline, after running up a $3 trillion deficit this year, isn’t fully convincing.
Is the Trump regime trying to provoke a financial crisis? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has ordered the Fed (against the latter's expressed wish) to return emergency funds.
But there’s another possibility. An outgoing administration has little incentive to make life easy for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, who takes over on Jan. 20. Removing the funding facilities might create problems for him, because their very existence has given banks and financial investors confidence to lend. Republicans’ apparent rediscovery of fiscal discipline, after running up a $3 trillion deficit this year, isn’t fully convincing.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
I thought the down-ticket Republicans did better than Trump this time?
For each day, that's adding up the last seven days of reported cases, divided by population. That smooths out variations from weekday to weekday while being responsive to the most recent data.
Encouraging downward trend in England.
Scotland heading down more slowly, albeit from a lower starting level. Tier 4 in Glasgow and surrounds will hopefully reinforce that.
Rather noisy data in Wales after the firebreak knocked cases down by about 40%. They'll probably have to do more.
NI cases apparently reducing again after a plateau. Not sure why.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
I thought the down-ticket Republicans did better than Trump this time?
Yes, because they got the support of (Republican ambivalent) Trump voters and anti-Trump Republicans. If Trump takes his voters away then the down ballot Republicans suffer.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
I thought the down-ticket Republicans did better than Trump this time?
That's because downticket Republicans stuck with their party this time, apart from Trump. Those voters are probably not amused by - for example - the shenanigans in Michigan.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
I thought the down-ticket Republicans did better than Trump this time?
Yes, because they got the support of (Republican ambivalent) Trump voters and anti-Trump Republicans. If Trump takes his voters away then the down ballot Republicans suffer.
For each day, that's adding up the last seven days of reported cases, divided by population. That smooths out variations from weekday to weekday while being responsive to the most recent data.
Encouraging downward trend in England.
Scotland heading down more slowly, albeit from a lower starting level. Tier 4 in Glasgow and surrounds will hopefully reinforce that.
Rather noisy data in Wales after the firebreak knocked cases down by about 40%. They'll probably have to do more.
NI cases apparently reducing again after a plateau. Not sure why.
Looks like they're all going to magically coalesce on Christmas Day. It's like the General Election polls!
For each day, that's adding up the last seven days of reported cases, divided by population. That smooths out variations from weekday to weekday while being responsive to the most recent data.
Encouraging downward trend in England.
Scotland heading down more slowly, albeit from a lower starting level. Tier 4 in Glasgow and surrounds will hopefully reinforce that.
Rather noisy data in Wales after the firebreak knocked cases down by about 40%. They'll probably have to do more.
NI cases apparently reducing again after a plateau. Not sure why.
So the claim is that there's no such thing as asymptomatic transmission? If that's the case, why are we having such trouble containing the virus if only those with obvious symptoms can transmit it?
The point about SPotY is that is a two-stage contest. The first, being nominated, is about performance on the pitch, track or table; in the pool or in the ring. But the second is the public vote, more akin to Reality TV betting. Sporting achievement gets you into the Big Brother House, or into the Welsh Jungle, but from then on it is about who picks up the phone on the night.
The question is not about whether Ronnie has achieved more than Lewis but whether either has done enough to be amongst the 10 or 12 nominated. That is where the role of sport ends and it is down to public appeal.
Very much so.
The big question is do the BBC allow Rashford to be nominated, given his lack of on-the-pitch achievements?
If not, as I assume, then his short price (3/1 ish second fav) gives value to the rest of the field.
In previous years they've allowed up to a dozen nominations, it will be interesting to see how many horses take the start line in this race, given the paucity of actual achievement in an extraordinary year.
There have only been six nominees the past couple of years.
My guess at this stage is:
Lewis Hamilton Tyson Fury Ronnie O'Sullivan Jonathan Rea James Anderson Hollie Doyle
Marcus Rashford will be given a special award for his campaign.
I have only heard of two on that list - Hamilton and O'Sullivan.
I suppose you could go into a pub and take a long time over ordering. And then change your mind.
In Manc, when in tier 3, you only got your drinks when you ordered your food.
Take as long as you wanted thinking about what you want, but you are not drinking in that time.
But
Some places would say from ordering you have 2hrs to drink as much as you want, others that whilst the plates were on the table you could eat what you want, they would leave the plates until you asked for them to be taken away.
Other thing about vaccine....its 2 jabs and the another week before you get the full protection. I worry a lot of people will get the 2nd jab and be off down the pub to celebrate.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
The electoral cycle still turns eventually, since 1952 the longest any party has been out of the White House was the Democrats for 12 years from 1980 and even they still got back in with Clinton in 1992.
That is the good news for the GOP.
The bad news for the GOP is Carter's defeat in 1980 was the only time since WW2 a party lost the White House after only 1 term before Trump's defeat this year.
Other thing about vaccine....its 2 jabs and the another week before you get the full protection. I worry a lot of people will get the 2nd jab and be off down the pub to celebrate.
But it is not all or nothing.
Right from having the first jab you have a level of protection, it's just that a week ater jab 2 is the peak protection.
Is the Trump regime trying to provoke a financial crisis? Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has ordered the Fed (against the latter's expressed wish) to return emergency funds.
But there’s another possibility. An outgoing administration has little incentive to make life easy for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, who takes over on Jan. 20. Removing the funding facilities might create problems for him, because their very existence has given banks and financial investors confidence to lend. Republicans’ apparent rediscovery of fiscal discipline, after running up a $3 trillion deficit this year, isn’t fully convincing.
I seem to recall that one of the Founding Fathers warned that parties would be the death of their fledgling democracy.
Total war is the GOP's strategy now even if the country is destroyed in the process.
Well, the Founding Fathers didn’t create a democracy, a republic, yes, but suffrage for all white males (the definition of “democracy” at the time) did not come until the 1820s or so. And their idea of “parties” was the 18th century British Parliamentary factions rather than the mass political movements that began to evolve on both sides of the Atlantic in the 19th century.
And there is precedent for Trump pursuing a scorched-Earth policy between now and January 20th: it might not quite be the case that Benjamin Harrison’s outgoing administration caused the Panic of 1893, but arguably they did their level best to ensure it hit just as Grover Cleveland’s second (non-consecutive) administration began and that he and the Democrats would get the blame. It worked: the 1894 midterms saw the biggest swing against the President’s party in American history and the Democrats did regain control of any of the House, Senate or Presidency until 1910.
Not lately, but in the ’50s, ’60s, ’70s, that was not uncommon. There are at least two world champions that had serious dependence on alcohol: Alexander Alekhine and Mikhail Tal. Today it’s impossible because there’s a level of concentration that you need, not just for the game but for the preparation...
Other thing about vaccine....its 2 jabs and the another week before you get the full protection. I worry a lot of people will get the 2nd jab and be off down the pub to celebrate.
But it is not all or nothing.
Right from having the first jab you have a level of protection, it's just that a week ater jab 2 is the peak protection.
I love the way they say that you have to "decide in advance who is in your bubble". Bit like the rules for "single person bubbles" said that once you had formed a bubble you couldn't change it. When in reality, anyone who wanted to simply had one bubble on Monday, another on Tuesday, another on Wednesday...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
How many people do you think will get the first jab, but won't bother coming back for the second?
1st set of people will be in care homes, so they will have no way of avoiding the second stabbing.
Well, there is one way... but let's not think about that one.
Well, if they all start turning into giant green angry people, that will definitely fix the age/debilitation issue. And solve nearly all of the Armed Forces recruitment/fitness issues as well.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
The electoral cycle still turns eventually, since 1952 the longest any party has been out of the White House was the Democrats for 12 years from 1980 and even they still got back in with Clinton in 1992.
That is the good news for the GOP.
The bad news for the GOP is Carter's defeat in 1980 was the only time since WW2 a party lost the White House after only 1 term before Trump's defeat this year.
Completely off topic, but maybe worthy of a post, I think the most important politician to watch globally is Mitt Romney. I agree with him on almost nothing, but he has emerged from this electoral soap opera with a great deal of credit and honour. I wonder if he could challenge in 2024 or 2028? He could yet be the man to save the GOP. I wish him well.
The 2024 GOP nomination will be the greatest clown show on earth. Which of the Trumps will run ? Ivanka surely has more appeal than the sons nationally. It'll probably be Don Jr knowing the GOP base. The base is batshit mental.
My view is the Trumptons will probably go for Junior or Ivanka, but neither will get the nomination. I think if the likes of Romney play their cards right, the Trumptonite fish will rot from the head.
The only way the likes of Romney gets his party back, is to have a plausible nominee in place, and everyone on his side of the party behind that one nominee, before the primaries start.
Romney has many sterling qualities and might have made an OK President, but even allowing for his other weaknesses his time has passed. Harris would eat him alive in a presidential race.
The smart move for the Republicans would be to rally behind Nikki Haley. But as it’s the smart move she has no chance.
The GoP have lost the PV in seven of the eight last Presidential elections. They have no chance of improving on that dismal record unless they carry Trump supporters with them.
One way or another, they have to run with a Trump-friendly candidate. I'd guess Don Jnr, if he isn't incapacitated in any way. Coronavirus and chokey would be the main risks.
The problem they have is that the Republican Party with Trump is 45% of voters, and without Trump is 30% of voters.
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
The electoral cycle still turns eventually, since 1952 the longest any party has been out of the White House was the Democrats for 12 years from 1980 and even they still got back in with Clinton in 1992.
That is the good news for the GOP.
The bad news for the GOP is Carter's defeat in 1980 was the only time since WW2 a party lost the White House after only 1 term before Trump's defeat this year.
The other bad news for the GOP is they've lost a total grip on any kind of reality.
I love the way they say that you have to "decide in advance who is in your bubble". Bit like the rules for "single person bubbles" said that once you had formed a bubble you couldn't change it. When in reality, anyone who wanted to simply had one bubble on Monday, another on Tuesday, another on Wednesday...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
Right. If you set this at 4, people will do 5, or a different 4 or 5. If you really insist on relaxation for Christmas, it should be rule of 6 for Christmas day. People will still do 8 and boxing day, but this signalling of a week of 4 households, people will just go house to house over the course of the week.
We are probably 12 weeks away from having all the vulnerable protected, we can just postpone Christmas.
I love the way they say that you have to "decide in advance who is in your bubble". Bit like the rules for "single person bubbles" said that once you had formed a bubble you couldn't change it. When in reality, anyone who wanted to simply had one bubble on Monday, another on Tuesday, another on Wednesday...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
Right. If you set this at 4, people will do 5, or a different 4 or 5. If you really insist on relaxation for Christmas, it should be rule of 6 for Christmas day. People will still do 8 and boxing day, but this signallong of a week of 4 households, people will just go house to house over the course of the week.
I've been a bit of sceptic on lockdown (yeh, I keep going on about Sweden and a low key, sustainable lockdown), but if you as a government are going to pursue a strict lockdown policy then ripping it up for four days and allowing FOUR households is just bloody bonkers imho.
I love the way they say that you have to "decide in advance who is in your bubble". Bit like the rules for "single person bubbles" said that once you had formed a bubble you couldn't change it. When in reality, anyone who wanted to simply had one bubble on Monday, another on Tuesday, another on Wednesday...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
Right. If you set this at 4, people will do 5, or a different 4 or 5. If you really insist on relaxation for Christmas, it should be rule of 6 for Christmas day. People will still do 8 and boxing day, but this signalling of a week of 4 households, people will just go house to house over the course of the week.
We are probably 12 weeks away from having all the vulnerable protected, we can just postpone Christmas.
People are going to do that anyway, regardless of what the Government says.
It is not unusual for a jaded and jiggered prime minister to try to relaunch himself. It is unusual for this to happen quite so early in a premiership.
If his premiership is to recover, it will not be by making hyperbolic promises about the future, but by finding a hitherto absent talent for governing well in the present. Even as a public-relations exercise, the relaunch failed. It was sabotaged and the person who blew the biggest hole in it was the prime minister himself.
This Christmas thing is entirely academic as people were just going to do what they wanted anyway.
Some people were. Others take quite serious notice of the rules. You tend not to see them out and about. Nor hear from them much. But they do exist. I know. I'm married to one.
I love the way they say that you have to "decide in advance who is in your bubble". Bit like the rules for "single person bubbles" said that once you had formed a bubble you couldn't change it. When in reality, anyone who wanted to simply had one bubble on Monday, another on Tuesday, another on Wednesday...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
Right. If you set this at 4, people will do 5, or a different 4 or 5. If you really insist on relaxation for Christmas, it should be rule of 6 for Christmas day. People will still do 8 and boxing day, but this signalling of a week of 4 households, people will just go house to house over the course of the week.
We are probably 12 weeks away from having all the vulnerable protected, we can just postpone Christmas.
There is already apparently some chat on Parler that there will be no point in voting as the machines are fixed. Whether that’s shenanigans, or simple stupidity, I have no idea.
It is not unusual for a jaded and jiggered prime minister to try to relaunch himself. It is unusual for this to happen quite so early in a premiership.
If his premiership is to recover, it will not be by making hyperbolic promises about the future, but by finding a hitherto absent talent for governing well in the present. Even as a public-relations exercise, the relaunch failed. It was sabotaged and the person who blew the biggest hole in it was the prime minister himself.
This is Johnson's second or third reset/relaunch I reckon.
I love the way they say that you have to "decide in advance who is in your bubble". Bit like the rules for "single person bubbles" said that once you had formed a bubble you couldn't change it. When in reality, anyone who wanted to simply had one bubble on Monday, another on Tuesday, another on Wednesday...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
Right. If you set this at 4, people will do 5, or a different 4 or 5. If you really insist on relaxation for Christmas, it should be rule of 6 for Christmas day. People will still do 8 and boxing day, but this signalling of a week of 4 households, people will just go house to house over the course of the week.
We are probably 12 weeks away from having all the vulnerable protected, we can just postpone Christmas.
People are going to do that anyway, regardless of what the Government says.
Silly people will. Sensible people will wait for a vaccine.
For each day, that's adding up the last seven days of reported cases, divided by population. That smooths out variations from weekday to weekday while being responsive to the most recent data.
Encouraging downward trend in England.
Scotland heading down more slowly, albeit from a lower starting level. Tier 4 in Glasgow and surrounds will hopefully reinforce that.
Rather noisy data in Wales after the firebreak knocked cases down by about 40%. They'll probably have to do more.
NI cases apparently reducing again after a plateau. Not sure why.
This assume non-differential testing rates.....
Between nations? Over time?
Yes - trying to find info on testing rates at sub nation level - England, Wales, NI and Scotland are roughly at the same level at national level. But testing has been heavily concentrated in smaller areas, in reality.
Your approach with hospitalisations would be of interest...
This Christmas thing is entirely academic as people were just going to do what they wanted anyway.
Some people were. Others take quite serious notice of the rules. You tend not to see them out and about. Nor hear from them much. But they do exist. I know. I'm married to one.
Well yeah, I've been following the rules too. I wasn't, however, going to sit at home on my own on Christmas Day.
Comments
*through gritted teeth presumably.
For each day, that's adding up the last seven days of reported cases, divided by population. That smooths out variations from weekday to weekday while being responsive to the most recent data.
Encouraging downward trend in England.
Scotland heading down more slowly, albeit from a lower starting level. Tier 4 in Glasgow and surrounds will hopefully reinforce that.
Rather noisy data in Wales after the firebreak knocked cases down by about 40%. They'll probably have to do more.
NI cases apparently reducing again after a plateau. Not sure why.
My guess at this stage is:
Lewis Hamilton
Tyson Fury
Ronnie O'Sullivan
Jonathan Rea
James Anderson
Hollie Doyle
Marcus Rashford will be given a special award for his campaign.
Tonight, we kick off in Italy where a lot has been happening and primarily the political demise of Lega which has seen its support fall from the mid-30s to just 23% in the latest Tecne poll. The Social Democrats are on 21% but the big beneficiaries of the Lega's collapse have been the Brothers of Italy (FdL) who are now third with 17% in front of M5S with 14%. Elections aren't due until 2023 and FdL's poll numbers haven't yet translated into seats but they could be a big part of the next Italian Government.
On then to Germany where Angela Merkel celebrates 15 years as Chancellor - a remarkable achievement. The CDU/CSU remain solidly ahead with 36% with the Greens on 18%, SPD on 16%, AfD on 9% and both Linke and FDP on 7%.
In the Netherlands, the governing VVD has opened an 8-point advantage over the PVV but the coalition parties forming the Government have a combined vote share of 47% compared with 48% at the last election so remain very much in the driving seat.
Finally for now to Norway, where the Opposition Labour Party lead the governing Hojre Party by just one point (21.5-20.4) but both are well down on the last election. Labour is down 6 points and Hojre down 4.5 with the big gainers the Centre Party who are up 8.3 to 18.6% and hold a strong third.
For those not acquainted with Norwegian politics, the Centre Party is the successor to the old Farmers' Party. It's nationalist, protectionist, populist and strongly opposed to any idea of Norway joining the EU so obviously it's doing well in the current climate. Surprisingly, it has supported and been in coalition with centre-left Labour Governments and I suppose that's a possibility next time
In Germany looks like the Greens could have the balance of power next year between a coalition with the CDU or a centre left coalition with the SPD and Linke, Merkel not standing for Chancellor again at next year's election.
I paid back a student loan in a different country in (wait for it!) 1962.
Voting starts tomorrow.
It wasn't that long ago that the UK was forced to borrow in Yen, Swiss Francs, Dollars and Deutschemarks as well as Pounds - simply Brits didn't trust the UK government not to inflate away their savings.
If we were to go through another period, like the 1970s, when interest rates were in double digits, I have little doubt that people would seek to put their money in alternatives.
Of course, it may be that the current unbridled printing of money by governments around the world does not lead to inflation...
For the first time I'm nervous about my Biden +48.5 bet.
Remember Italy gives bonus seats to whoever comes first. So it could be three or four parties competing to see who gets the "boost".
Also, presumably he's not just dropped in to a random episode mid-series.
So the question is: how many episodes has he watched and enjoyed before taking offence at one?
And all for a battle that they will inevitably lose.
Right now, the Michigan Republican leadership thinks "ah, it is the least resistance to say we're going to study them and then we'll certify them after proving they're valid." The problem is that their delay in certification opens the floodgates on Parler: if they're examining them, then there must be something wrong with them...
And suddenly the least resistance from the board is now not to certify the results and to abrogate responsibility.
What's scary, of course, is that Michigan wasn't even particularly close. 3% is a pretty decent margin (very similar to the EU one).
Choosing not to certify will end up increasing pressure on other Boards of Electors.
The possibility of something very bad happening is still small, but it's definitely there.
(
Neither is an election winning coalition.)
For me you can trace this back to the networks failing to call Pennsylvania before the first weekend.
Everyone and their dog knew that the remaining postal were going to split heavily for Biden and he would win it, failing to make that call was the first crack.
And even if somehow things don't certify, the state legislature has no role in selecting electors under any circumstances.
Therefore MLS > Serie A?
But there’s another possibility. An outgoing administration has little incentive to make life easy for Democratic President-elect Joe Biden, who takes over on Jan. 20. Removing the funding facilities might create problems for him, because their very existence has given banks and financial investors confidence to lend. Republicans’ apparent rediscovery of fiscal discipline, after running up a $3 trillion deficit this year, isn’t fully convincing.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-breakingviews/breakingviews-mnuchin-and-powell-create-dangerous-guessing-game-idUKKBN2802BZ
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1330264390906605571
Total war is the GOP's strategy now even if the country is destroyed in the process.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/22/pfizer-covid-vaccine-could-get-green-light-end-week/
I suppose if they've made an exception for the Government, it's unfair to deny anyone else.
Take as long as you wanted thinking about what you want, but you are not drinking in that time.
But
Some places would say from ordering you have 2hrs to drink as much as you want, others that whilst the plates were on the table you could eat what you want, they would leave the plates until you asked for them to be taken away.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1330621954278248457?s=19
Just no...no...no....
That is the good news for the GOP.
The bad news for the GOP is Carter's defeat in 1980 was the only time since WW2 a party lost the White House after only 1 term before Trump's defeat this year.
Right from having the first jab you have a level of protection, it's just that a week ater jab 2 is the peak protection.
And there is precedent for Trump pursuing a scorched-Earth policy between now and January 20th: it might not quite be the case that Benjamin Harrison’s outgoing administration caused the Panic of 1893, but arguably they did their level best to ensure it hit just as Grover Cleveland’s second (non-consecutive) administration began and that he and the Democrats would get the blame. It worked: the 1894 midterms saw the biggest swing against the President’s party in American history and the Democrats did regain control of any of the House, Senate or Presidency until 1910.
https://slate.com/culture/2020/11/queens-gambit-garry-kasparov-interview-netflix-chess-adviser.html
Have you ever seen anything like Harmon’s substance dependence and how it factors into gameplay?
Not lately, but in the ’50s, ’60s, ’70s, that was not uncommon. There are at least two world champions that had serious dependence on alcohol: Alexander Alekhine and Mikhail Tal. Today it’s impossible because there’s a level of concentration that you need, not just for the game but for the preparation...
As if somehow this is enforceable, with everyone recording their details on a central register or something. It's just further evidence that people in Government don't live in the real world.
We are probably 12 weeks away from having all the vulnerable protected, we can just postpone Christmas.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1330633718399111170?s=19
It is not unusual for a jaded and jiggered prime minister to try to relaunch himself. It is unusual for this to happen quite so early in a premiership.
If his premiership is to recover, it will not be by making hyperbolic promises about the future, but by finding a hitherto absent talent for governing well in the present. Even as a public-relations exercise, the relaunch failed. It was sabotaged and the person who blew the biggest hole in it was the prime minister himself.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1330632809116033024
I know. I'm married to one.
Whether that’s shenanigans, or simple stupidity, I have no idea.
Your approach with hospitalisations would be of interest...