All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Would not that be a disgraceful betrayal of everything Leavers voted for?
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
No, it's not. They were much closer than most of us in the teeth of of a tidal wave of pro-Biden over-optimism, some of it from myself.
Given what is coming out of Arizona, personal view is that there is a decent chance Trump retains it. Contrary to what some suggested here, the late votes coming in seem to be breaking for high in the percentages he needs. Whether that continues, we will see.
If he does win, that suggests the Trump's campaign's comments about AZ were well-founded and presumably their intelligence on the ground is good.
In that case, you might want to consider betting on NV for the Rs given his campaign were similarly optimistic and provided an outline of how they thought they would get there. I know Ralston thinks differently but I made the (possible) mistake of listening too much to him when not placing bets on NV.
I can't use Betfair at the moment but I would imagine the odds are decent.
(If anyone would put a bet on for me, I can send them payment across).
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Yes. Predicted 8, going to be 3 point something. A big miss.
Basically a Corbyn 2017 performance for Trump. I think we were all a bit worried about you on election night. Given that I'm less ideologically opposed to Trump than many, I was surprised just how disappointed I felt when Biden kept falling short in the major states on the night.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Don't forget the full extent of Hillary's PV win took a few weeks to shake down.
I always forget about how inept CA is at counting, sorry.
Well why would the state spend millions in fast voting when the result is never in doubt there?
Professional pride. At least cut it down to a week or so, that not too much to ask.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
Jim Naughtie on Radio 4 has been quite good over the last few days ; reflective, slightly literary, adding perspective. He has a lifetime of experience. Overall, though, I agree with you.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
No, it's not. They were much closer than most of us in the teeth of of a tidal wave of pro-Biden over-optimism, some of it from myself.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes, it is. HY ramped Trump relentlessly, and as others have said, the PV margin against him will probably finish up being fairly clear. A couple of the Trafalgar guesses landed close but most of them were no better than the predictions from ChrisChris the squirrel.
I'm still waiting for the final calls before revealing how succesful my Standard and Delux model predictions were (spoiler, if you combine the results it is 100%)
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Don't forget the full extent of Hillary's PV win took a few weeks to shake down.
I always forget about how inept CA is at counting, sorry.
Well why would the state spend millions in fast voting when the result is never in doubt there?
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
It doesn't help that John Sopel is possibly the worst US correspondent they've ever had, and there is serious competition for that.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
Jim Naughtie on Radio 4 has been quite good over the last few days ; reflective, slightly literary, adding perspective. He has a lifetime of experience. Overall, though, I agree with you.
Watch CNN and Fox, and then be grateful we have the BBC.
Something it is staggering that a fair few leading Conservatives dont seem to appreciate.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes, it is. HY ramped Trump relentlessly, and as others have said, the PV margin against him will probably finish up being fairly clear. A couple of the Trafalgar guesses landed close but most of them were no better than the predictions from ChrisChris the squirrel.
I'm still waiting for the final calls before revealing how succesful my Standard and Delux model predictions were (spoiler, if you combine the results it is 100%)
Taking the winning predictions from both model is cheating.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
Yes. Predicted 8, going to be 3 point something. A big miss.
Basically a Corbyn 2017 performance for Trump. I think we were all a bit worried about you on election night. Given that I'm less ideologically opposed to Trump than many, I was surprised just how disappointed I felt when Biden kept falling short in the major states on the night.
I think Biden will finish 4 points ahead. Enough that the Trump-leaning pollsters were wrong (so too were those on 10-12pt leads).
I was expecting 5 to 6, which I think will also be too much, but not too much (my ECV prediction of 306 is still possible).
The Senate map for 2022 includes the following races that should be competitive
Arizona Nevada Colorado FLorda Georgia North Carolina New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Ohio Iowa
The majority of those states are red incumbents.
The challenge for the Democrats will be to make the election about the GOP Senate blocking popular reforms. Biden needs to be able to use the pulpit of the Presidency to build a relationship of trust with the voters. Assuming he wins.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
I've been trying to work out why it is that I find BBC politics coverage and its style increasingly unpalatable (apart from me being an evil Cybernat of course). There's their constant amplifying of unpleasant reactionaries with little or no democratic mandate in aid of 'balance' of course, but I think it's more their rigidity, a tendency to decide what the story is and then look for evidence to support it. The foreign political coverage is the worst for this.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
Jim Naughtie on Radio 4 has been quite good over the last few days ; reflective, slightly literary, adding perspective. He has a lifetime of experience. Overall, though, I agree with you.
Watch CNN and Fox, and then be grateful we have the BBC.
Something it is staggering that a fair few leading Conservatives dont seem to appreciate.
Agreed 100%. CNN was dire when they got away from the map.
Catching up on the current o/s votes, am I right that AZ is actually still quite possible to stay with Trump? He seems to be getting much closer so could Fox. AP etc end up with egg on their face for calling it so early?
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Would not that be a disgraceful betrayal of everything Leavers voted for?
Asking for a friend.
Yes.
Rochdale is projecting what he wants to happen.
There will almost certainly be a deal because it is in both parties interests but it won't be what we have now.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
I'll give them credit for sticking around, unlike a couple of told-you-so merchants who stuck their angry wee heads up yesterday morning only to disappear as the so that they told turned up not to be so.
I give them great credit for that. And while their predictions proved off, they were not as far removed from reality as some of mine.
What is Marco Rubio up to these days. I have suddenly been seized by the spirit of Cromwell and realised that Rubio would have a serious, serious shot in a head to head with Tom Cotton for 2024.
And once again, in Georgia the Republican Senate candidate (50.1%) is outperforming the President (49.65%), a pattern which we have seen elsewhere. It's very unusual.
This calls a lie to the nonsense (HYUFD) that Donald Trump would be the GOP candidate in 2024. He's a liability and the knives are sharpening in the Republican party.
If that is so why has Trump got the second highest voteshare in the popular vote of any Republican presidential nominee of the last 30 years bar George W Bush?
If you can't work that out from facts in the public domain, given past history it would be pointless to try to explain it to you.
Come to think of it, given past history it would be pointless to try to explain anything to you. Ever.
Although it seems to me that Trump outperformed Republican Senate candidates in lots of states - I think the only state where the senate candidate outperformed Trump by much is Maine - very disappointing the Dems didn't win here. This is in contrast to 2016 where Trump did in fact underperform compared to Republican Senate candidates.
Also it seems likely that he will do at least as well in the national vote share (margin) as the national vote for the House - again unlike in 2016 where he did 3% worse (Trump 2% behind, Republican House 1% ahead).
The last 2 sitting presidents (ie 2004 and 2012 elections) did slightly better than their parties in terms of national vote shares comparing president and House. We'll have to wait for final totals to see if Trump matches that. Comparing with senate results is more difficult because so many other factors are important.
Trump may well be a liability, but Mysticrose's claim that comparing Trump's vote with other Republican candidates vote in 2020 supports that doesn't seem to be based on very good evidence.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Says the man who called women pundits on TV “screeching harpies”.
To be fair to Charles he has been very supportive of Dido Harding and other women in public life who are personal friends of his.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
Jim Naughtie on Radio 4 has been quite good over the last few days ; reflective, slightly literary, adding perspective. He has a lifetime of experience. Overall, though, I agree with you.
Watch CNN and Fox, and then be grateful we have the BBC.
Something it is staggering that a fair few leading Conservatives dont seem to appreciate.
I'm still grateful for the BBC ; I just wish John Birt hadn't half-ruined it.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
I've been trying to work out why it is that I find BBC politics coverage and its style increasingly unpalatable (apart from me being an evil Cybernat of course). There's their constant amplifying of unpleasant reactionaries with little or no democratic mandate in aid of 'balance' of course, but I think it's more their rigidity, a tendency to decide what the story is and then look for evidence to support it. The foreign political coverage is the worst for this.
Nigel Farage is brought on every show, what exactly are his credentials to judge politics?
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Just to re-iterate. I'm going to have very little time for people who have spent the last 4 years saying candidate A's sub percentage point wins in the MidWest made him an election winning genius with a unique connection to Real America suddenly finding that candidate B's narrow wins in the MidWest make him a flukey bugger who understands nothing about Real America.
What is Marco Rubio up to these days. I have suddenly been seized by the spirit of Cromwell and realised that Rubio would have a serious, serious shot in a head to head with Tom Cotton for 2024.
Like, wow.
Running Rubio would be good long term for the GOP even if he lost. It would create severe difficulties for the Democrats and hispanics in 2028
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
The shy Trumper theory looks very strong when you look at the rise in support he seems to have had from various minority groups.
Interesting to see if the Senate ends up 51-49 to the GOP. If it does then PR statehood may yet happen as Rubio is in favour of it, and with Biden president the Dems can win a 50-50 tie.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Says the man who called women pundits on TV “screeching harpies”.
To be fair to Charles he has been very supportive of Dido Harding and other women in public life who are personal friends of his.
Thats why he supports them it’s actually quite sickening to read his praise for them.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes, it is. HY ramped Trump relentlessly, and as others have said, the PV margin against him will probably finish up being fairly clear. A couple of the Trafalgar guesses landed close but most of them were no better than the predictions from ChrisChris the squirrel.
I'm still waiting for the final calls before revealing how succesful my Standard and Delux model predictions were (spoiler, if you combine the results it is 100%)
Taking the winning predictions from both model is cheating.
No, that just means you now know which model does best in which states. So next time you need to listen to me because I have a 100% prediction rate.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
I've been trying to work out why it is that I find BBC politics coverage and its style increasingly unpalatable (apart from me being an evil Cybernat of course). There's their constant amplifying of unpleasant reactionaries with little or no democratic mandate in aid of 'balance' of course, but I think it's more their rigidity, a tendency to decide what the story is and then look for evidence to support it. The foreign political coverage is the worst for this.
I think your penultimate point about deciding the story and then evidencing that story is borne out by the fact that the Reporter conducts a report from a crossroads, when they want to demonstrate, America or the Economy or dealing with the pandemic is indeed "at a crossroads".
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Would not that be a disgraceful betrayal of everything Leavers voted for?
Asking for a friend.
Yes.
Rochdale is projecting what he wants to happen.
There will almost certainly be a deal because it is in both parties interests but it won't be what we have now.
I am stating - not predicting - that there has to be a deal. Because we cannot exit on No Deal or indeed any significant variance of what we have now due to our inaction in creating the capability to separate ourselves off. We cannot enter into customs standards and tariffs checks on 1st January which means we will have to continue with the existing EU standards and tariffs unless we want to extend which we legally cannot do.
What I wanted was for us to join EFTA and be a player. Instead we will be an addendum.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
The meat goes into things like .. er .. Animal Feed.
The top 4 countries are Denmark, China, the Netherlands, and Poland.
So much for "The EU is the only way to be sure we have high farming standards."
Meat's a by product, they are farmed for fur.
What about this story implies a lack of high farming standards?
Have you been to a mink farm?
No. So?
I'm that rarest of beasts, a vegetarian who has no issue in principle with fur-farming - we use other animal products, and even on purely environmental grounds there might be an argument for natural fur versus synthetics. I'm not going to be buying a mink coat myself but I'm not in favour of banning the industry entirely, as many veggie and vegan types seem to want.
Fur-farming might not happen in a field, but that doesn't mean it isn't "farming" just as much as dairy farming and the egg industry are. But I would support, for welfare reasons, a ban on battery hens, which strike me as an example of a low farming standard, and everything I have heard about fur production in the EU suggests that farm welfare standards in that sector are apalling. Having said before that I'm not in favour of banning it, I'll admit that the kind of welfare standards I would want to see imposed on the industry might well render it economically unviable...
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
"But Pericles built the Parthenon, not the Emirates Cable Car."
Seriously worth reading. Johnson as Egil Skallagrimsson rather than Pericles.
Don't forget that Rory himself, as a former President of the Arnold & Brackenbury, has had years of training in the art of delivering witty nonsense on any conceivable subject at a moment's notice...
Oh yes, I know that Oxford gives an excellent training in delivering organised discourse on tap, with a greater or lesser degree of bluffing as needed. But it's what the speaker does, or doesn't, do with it that counts.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
The difference with a US election is that, with a few exceptions, we're all remote and working off the same limited bits of data. There's no doubt that the US national polls set the narrative, and if there was a fault here it was over-analysing other bits of data to conform with this same narrative. For example, the flood of women voting early wasn't, as suggested, because they all hated Trump, but more likely because they'd rather avoid bumping into the virus on polling day.
In a UK election, we all have a better feel, through our personal contacts in our localities, tons of anecdotes from people we know, and for many of us our direct experience of campaigning in the field or contacts with candidates and organisers. We also see more of the leaflets, the broadcasts, the interviews. In the domestic scenario we have a lot more data to work with, and less excuse for overly weighting fragments of data from a single source.
What is Marco Rubio up to these days. I have suddenly been seized by the spirit of Cromwell and realised that Rubio would have a serious, serious shot in a head to head with Tom Cotton for 2024.
Like, wow.
Running Rubio would be good long term for the GOP even if he lost. It would create severe difficulties for the Democrats and hispanics in 2028
Rubio was the early favourite in 2016 of course but that then collapsed under the headlights and brutal examination from Christie and Trump's 'little Marco' mockery
Longer term Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P Bush, the Texas Land Commissioner, is a prospect but unlikely for at least 2 election cycles if he wins the Texas governorship in 2022 or 2026
Of course there will be variances to the EU deal. We will win back more rights on fishing. We will start deporting foreign types if they can't sustain themselves. We will have the right to start trade negotiations. And as a non-EU member we will be treated differently just as the Swiss are.
But that is it. Same customs deal. Same standards. Same free trade. The right to have babies even though we can't have babies.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
Jim Naughtie on Radio 4 has been quite good over the last few days ; reflective, slightly literary, adding perspective. He has a lifetime of experience. Overall, though, I agree with you.
Watch CNN and Fox, and then be grateful we have the BBC.
Something it is staggering that a fair few leading Conservatives dont seem to appreciate.
The BBC is a wonderful institution. It's just the fact that people who don't watched it are taxed for it that is the problem.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
I've been trying to work out why it is that I find BBC politics coverage and its style increasingly unpalatable (apart from me being an evil Cybernat of course). There's their constant amplifying of unpleasant reactionaries with little or no democratic mandate in aid of 'balance' of course, but I think it's more their rigidity, a tendency to decide what the story is and then look for evidence to support it. The foreign political coverage is the worst for this.
That's a convincing critique (though some of their overseas correspondents are very good indeed). Sopel seems just to uncritically regurgitate whatever narrative he's been last fed.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
Yes. It's the same reason why I think 538's assessment of Biden having a 90% chance was reasonable. His lead was big enough to withstand a fairly large polling error (unlike Clinton), which is exactly what happened.
Crikey, those are Bell cartoons that are (a) not nasty and (b) kind of funny! I've only been aware of his cartoons in recent years, so I didn't think that was possible.
Good morning all. Just got up to see nothings really changed from when I went to bed. As I thought GA is going to be razor close, which in itself is incredible. AZ still looking all but there for Biden, NV still some votes to be counted later but checked Ralstons feed and he seems confident so I am too. PA also looking like it will flip comfortably. The scenes in GA at the counting station with those Trump supporters bit worrying , lets hope its not a portent of all to come. As expected Nat Vote up and Biden over 70 million, which is impressive. I have to say that Trump only being 2.5% or so behind still is also impressive, he clearly has inspired his followers and many new ones to vote. Not sure what the projected final difference will be but clearly Trump is much closer in the NV than many expected including me.
So the nationwide popular vote polls were also wrong this time? They were predicting a huge lead for Biden in the PV.
When all is said and done I think this has “shy Trump” written all over it. People didn’t want to admit for voting for him but felt he was more attuned to their sensibilities. A fear of a culture war (this well-meaning but overplayed liberal identity politics from the left is becoming a severe vote loser) and a perception of economic self interest (I trust him not to raise my taxes and get the economy booming again but I don’t trust the liberal) might have driven it.
The shy Trumper aspect may not be as significant as you think. Trump has cleaned up in rural areas and I suspect that pollsters have mainly been surveying more populace areas and so missed or under-weighted rural voters. Secondly, even in the metropolitan areas I strongly believe that liberals and left-wing individuals are far more amenable to responding to surveys than many Trump voters would be. I think these two aspects weigh much more heavily than shy Trumpers.
The shy Trumper theory looks very strong when you look at the rise in support he seems to have had from various minority groups.
Ah but how do we know Trump did enjoy a rise in support from minority groups? If from exit polls, then that in itself undermines the shy Trump theory and points to sampling error.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Would not that be a disgraceful betrayal of everything Leavers voted for?
Asking for a friend.
Yes.
Rochdale is projecting what he wants to happen.
There will almost certainly be a deal because it is in both parties interests but it won't be what we have now.
I am stating - not predicting - that there has to be a deal. Because we cannot exit on No Deal or indeed any significant variance of what we have now due to our inaction in creating the capability to separate ourselves off. We cannot enter into customs standards and tariffs checks on 1st January which means we will have to continue with the existing EU standards and tariffs unless we want to extend which we legally cannot do.
What I wanted was for us to join EFTA and be a player. Instead we will be an addendum.
We absolutely can go to No Deal if that is what we choose to do. If there's some disruption we can live with that and do whatever is required to cope.
You are talking naively about tariff checks as if they need to happen, they don't. If we have no deal and the cost of doing tariff checks is more than the benefit of doing them then simply not doing them or streamlining them is an alternative option you are ignoring.
The Senate map for 2022 includes the following races that should be competitive
Arizona Nevada Colorado FLorda Georgia North Carolina New Hampshire Pennsylvania Wisconsin Ohio Iowa
The majority of those states are red incumbents.
The challenge for the Democrats will be to make the election about the GOP Senate blocking popular reforms. Biden needs to be able to use the pulpit of the Presidency to build a relationship of trust with the voters. Assuming he wins.
The GOP will want a different framing, naturally.
Yup, the Dem Trifecta landslide scenario is gone: That was going to be about ramming through as much massive constitutional change as possible before 2022 came and blew them up.
Now it is about finding the most popular proposals possible that the Senate will block and scream about it. McConnell has pocket veto'd so much legislation by simply not bringing it to a vote and the American political media has been silent about it. But McConnell has always used the justification that Trump would veto so there was no point. Now that narrative is tripped from him.
The Dems need to identify populist bills that the Senate will need to vote down.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes it is. The actual outcome looks like being a fairly comfortable Biden win. No glory either for the predictors of a landslide (like yours truly) or for predictors of a Trump win or a knife edge scenario. But no egg on face either. And kudos to HYUFD and one or two others for being correct on one very important specific - the polls were underestimating the Trump vote.
Interesting to see if the Senate ends up 51-49 to the GOP. If it does then PR statehood may yet happen as Rubio is in favour of it, and with Biden president the Dems can win a 50-50 tie.
Hasn't McConnell got the choice of whether or not to bring it to the floor even if the House passes it? And do they have the chance to filibuster it if it does come through?
Looking through each of the counties, it looks like most of them have broadly similar ranges of leads to what they had in 2016 for the parties' lead in the state ((I've taken this as +/- 10 either side but most are a fair few % points below that threshold).
However, there are three big ones where there has been a noticeable difference and where there are still chunks of votes left - Douglas (93 in; Biden at +25 vs +10.7 in 2016); Cobb (96% in; +14 vs +2.2); Gwinnett (97% in; Biden +18 vs +5.8 in 2016).
The obvious reaction is to say that these counties have seen noticeable swings to Biden because they are more urban, affluent etc. However, you haven't seen the same swings in the likes of DeKalb and Fulton.
Is there a possibility that this therefore might be more precinct related in terms of votes to come in or, as they are all absentee ballots, it is unlikely the ones to come in will have an unusually R tint?
(I'm not trying to cling on to a Trump win; I'm genuinely interested and, also, if it is the former, then it has obvious implications for the vote).
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
To be fair it is still possible for both he and Mr Ed to have picked the winner as well, though unlikely Trump still has a path to win. AZ is certainly looking very close, making Fox's calling so early very stupid, and if Trump holds GA and NC which I am expecting, then it comes down to PA. Yes it looks good for Biden in projections, but those votes have not been counted yet and Biden is still a long way behind. So it is certainly possible that HYUFD may still have the last laugh on most of us.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Says the man who called women pundits on TV “screeching harpies”.
To be fair to Charles he has been very supportive of Dido Harding and other women in public life who are personal friends of his.
I'm having great difficulty trying to work out the intended meaning of that sentence.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Would not that be a disgraceful betrayal of everything Leavers voted for?
Asking for a friend.
Yes.
Rochdale is projecting what he wants to happen.
There will almost certainly be a deal because it is in both parties interests but it won't be what we have now.
I am stating - not predicting - that there has to be a deal. Because we cannot exit on No Deal or indeed any significant variance of what we have now due to our inaction in creating the capability to separate ourselves off. We cannot enter into customs standards and tariffs checks on 1st January which means we will have to continue with the existing EU standards and tariffs unless we want to extend which we legally cannot do.
What I wanted was for us to join EFTA and be a player. Instead we will be an addendum.
Which was, sadly, always going to be the case. Our noses pressed up against the window.
And yes, of course there will be a deal - and we await to see what type of immense victory it is spun as being and how some on here respond.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I know from experience that when making predictions the most difficult thing is not to allow what you want to happen to influence your prediction. It's very difficult not to be guided in that way.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
I've been trying to work out why it is that I find BBC politics coverage and its style increasingly unpalatable (apart from me being an evil Cybernat of course). There's their constant amplifying of unpleasant reactionaries with little or no democratic mandate in aid of 'balance' of course, but I think it's more their rigidity, a tendency to decide what the story is and then look for evidence to support it. The foreign political coverage is the worst for this.
That's a convincing critique (though some of their overseas correspondents are very good indeed). Sopel seems just to uncritically regurgitate whatever narrative he's been last fed.
I spent a fair bit of time with Sopel, last autumn, as he was a passenger on the QM2 and both of us had dogs in the ship's kennels. He's a nice guy, but he's a reporter, not an analyst, and certainly not an intellectual. He did a series of talks on the ship, and they were collections of interesting and amusing anecdotes of his time in the US, but there was no real insight beyond the superficial. Chatting to him personally was interesting; he clearly enjoys the lifestyle among the DC movers and shakers. Perhaps a little too much.
Interesting to see if the Senate ends up 51-49 to the GOP. If it does then PR statehood may yet happen as Rubio is in favour of it, and with Biden president the Dems can win a 50-50 tie.
The Republican party's official position is in favour of PR statehood if voted for in the way it has just been voted for.
The GOP blocking it will appear beyond hypocritical. I haven't checked the number of PR natives in Florida but I believe it is not insignificant.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes it is. The actual outcome looks like being a fairly comfortable Biden win. No glory either for the predictors of a landslide (like yours truly) or for predictors of a Trump win or a knife edge scenario. But no egg on face either. And kudos to HYUFD and one or two others for being correct on one very important specific - the polls were underestimating the Trump vote.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
I was never critical of HYUFD's US analysis, having criticised his use of an outlier poll in early November to demonstrate Corbyn was set for an absolute spanking in GE19. The poll was right, so I have been careful to avoid that trap twelve months later.
I have however been very critical of HYUFD'S almost exclusive use of Trafalgar to demonstrate his point. HYUFD came to a pretty decent answer, but his reference texts were very poor. It wasn't that Trafalgar called it wrong, they didn't, but their workings out were all over the place.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Says the man who called women pundits on TV “screeching harpies”.
To be fair to Charles he has been very supportive of Dido Harding and other women in public life who are personal friends of his.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
Biden has walked away with it. After all the counting is done, Biden is President Elect.
And I criticised HYUFD for treating Trafalgar as the gospel truth because they fluked two states right last time while getting other states wrong last time (but that was getting ignored). The results show that to be correct, Trafalgar are all over the place they are not seers.
Looking through each of the counties, it looks like most of them have broadly similar ranges of leads to what they had in 2016 for the parties' lead in the state ((I've taken this as +/- 10 either side but most are a fair few % points below that threshold).
However, there are three big ones where there has been a noticeable difference and where there are still chunks of votes left - Douglas (93 in; Biden at +25 vs +10.7 in 2016); Cobb (96% in; +14 vs +2.2); Gwinnett (97% in; Biden +18 vs +5.8 in 2016).
The obvious reaction is to say that these counties have seen noticeable swings to Biden because they are more urban, affluent etc. However, you haven't seen the same swings in the likes of DeKalb and Fulton.
Is there a possibility that this therefore might be more precinct related in terms of votes to come in or, as they are all absentee ballots, it is unlikely the ones to come in will have an unusually R tint?
(I'm not trying to cling on to a Trump win; I'm genuinely interested and, also, if it is the former, then it has obvious implications for the vote).
They are the most suburban parts of Atlanta - exactly Trump's problem. So I wouldn't read too much into that.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
Jim Naughtie on Radio 4 has been quite good over the last few days ; reflective, slightly literary, adding perspective. He has a lifetime of experience. Overall, though, I agree with you.
Watch CNN and Fox, and then be grateful we have the BBC.
Something it is staggering that a fair few leading Conservatives dont seem to appreciate.
The BBC is a wonderful institution. It's just the fact that people who don't watched it are taxed for it that is the problem.
Other sources of income also come with problems, however.
The BBC funding model is unique. But so is its quality and global reputation.
Crikey, those are Bell cartoons that are (a) not nasty and (b) kind of funny! I've only been aware of his cartoons in recent years, so I didn't think that was possible.
Oh, I've enjoyed them since I was a student - and that was before the Falklands War. Edit: but not so much lately, perhaps. He does seem to have changed quite a bit in recent years, certainly by the time of indyref 2014. He had a memorable thread on the poll tax in Scotland with guinea pigs in kilts, and another on Mrs T as Thatchasaurus with Labour as Mesozoic mammals underfoot.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
Really? He put a lot of weight on the "they got it right before" argument and refused to accept that past performance is an unreliable guide, that it is possible to look under the hood to see how and why they got it right before and whether they are more of a Jack_W or a Dave the Octopus-type prognosticator, and that when rcs did actually look under the hood there was much to distrust there.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes it is. The actual outcome looks like being a fairly comfortable Biden win. No glory either for the predictors of a landslide (like yours truly) or for predictors of a Trump win or a knife edge scenario. But no egg on face either. And kudos to HYUFD and one or two others for being correct on one very important specific - the polls were underestimating the Trump vote.
It is still not over yet, particularly if Trump holds AZ and flips NV,
Just posted to suggest this also though I'm much more confident Biden will win NV than he will AZ. I really do think its quite possible those early calls on AZ might turn out to be wrong
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
Biden has walked away with it. After all the counting is done, Biden is President Elect.
And I criticised HYUFD for treating Trafalgar as the gospel truth because they fluked two states right last time while getting other states wrong last time (but that was getting ignored). The results show that to be correct, Trafalgar are all over the place they are not seers.
Biden has not won a landslide.
I am not surprised you won't admit you got it wrong, as usual hypocrisy on this site knows no bounds.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
I will second that and @Philip_Thompson was also quite critical of myself when I questioned the consensual narrative.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
No, it's not. They were much closer than most of us in the teeth of of a tidal wave of pro-Biden over-optimism, some of it from myself.
Hat-tip where hat-tips are due.
Thankyou Peter for your comments, I think it is fair to say I did not get it spot on if it is a solid Biden win rather than neck and neck as I was predicting but certainly did better than those who were predicting a Biden landslide, as did Mr Ed although he was the most heavily predicting a Trump win on here so was not spot on either
Biden is 2.8% behind in Pennsylvania with 89% in Trump is 2.6% behind in Arizona with 86% in.
PA Timing of results:The remaining mail ballots are expected to favor Democrats. PA
AZ Timing of results:Officials in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, said they would release another results update after 9 p.m. Eastern.
Arizona's remaining results are unlikely to be as skewed as Pennsylvania given the greater propensity for mail in voting in Arizona by both sides ?
From what I have been reading is it will still lean Biden so people are expecting a narrowing then a slight Biden gain again. "Experts" feel its going to be close but remain a Biden flip
PA still quite strongly looking to be a Biden win but maybe not quite by the margin talked about yesterday.
Their election lag compared to the US networks is pitiful. They still play the benevolent Aunty, sadly.
I'm a left-leaner but the BBC needs to be cut off from its licence tax as soon as possible. They need to find their commercial footing (iplayer global subscription was an appalling missed opportunity).
Again, not a natural BBC basher, but the coverage of the election has been unwatchable. Talk about dumbing down. And the election coverage on R2 bulletins this morning focused almost exclusively on Trump's proposed litigation. Absolute junk!
I've been trying to work out why it is that I find BBC politics coverage and its style increasingly unpalatable (apart from me being an evil Cybernat of course). There's their constant amplifying of unpleasant reactionaries with little or no democratic mandate in aid of 'balance' of course, but I think it's more their rigidity, a tendency to decide what the story is and then look for evidence to support it. The foreign political coverage is the worst for this.
At least you've come to terms with your evil cybernattery though, it's an important step.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
Wut? He endlessly championed Trafalgar (in the face of overwhelming evidence) on the basis of correctly calling states and Trafalgar have turn be out to be incredibly wrong in calling states.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
No, it's not. They were much closer than most of us in the teeth of of a tidal wave of pro-Biden over-optimism, some of it from myself.
Hat-tip where hat-tips are due.
Thankyou Peter for your comments, I think it is fair to say I did not get it spot on if it is a solid Biden win rather than neck and neck as I was predicting but certainly did better than those who were predicting a Biden landslide, as did Mr Ed although he was the most heavily predicting a Trump win on here so was not spot on either
Thanks @HYFUD, I did think he would eek it out in the end (and he may still well do) but, fortunately from a betting perspective, I took the safer options of betting Trump at a range of 200-250 EC votes and 45%+ of the vote. I would still expect most of that to come through
Looking through each of the counties, it looks like most of them have broadly similar ranges of leads to what they had in 2016 for the parties' lead in the state ((I've taken this as +/- 10 either side but most are a fair few % points below that threshold).
However, there are three big ones where there has been a noticeable difference and where there are still chunks of votes left - Douglas (93 in; Biden at +25 vs +10.7 in 2016); Cobb (96% in; +14 vs +2.2); Gwinnett (97% in; Biden +18 vs +5.8 in 2016).
The obvious reaction is to say that these counties have seen noticeable swings to Biden because they are more urban, affluent etc. However, you haven't seen the same swings in the likes of DeKalb and Fulton.
Is there a possibility that this therefore might be more precinct related in terms of votes to come in or, as they are all absentee ballots, it is unlikely the ones to come in will have an unusually R tint?
(I'm not trying to cling on to a Trump win; I'm genuinely interested and, also, if it is the former, then it has obvious implications for the vote).
They are the most suburban parts of Atlanta - exactly Trump's problem. So I wouldn't read too much into that.
I'm still of the opinion Biden will just fall short in GA possibly by just a few thousand votes. There seems to be some confusion over how many votes left from different sources too. I think Biden will close up more in the last few counts but not quite enough
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
Biden has walked away with it. After all the counting is done, Biden is President Elect.
And I criticised HYUFD for treating Trafalgar as the gospel truth because they fluked two states right last time while getting other states wrong last time (but that was getting ignored). The results show that to be correct, Trafalgar are all over the place they are not seers.
Hy doesn't do analysis; he ramps the conservative. That the conservative came closer than anticipated this time says nothing about his predictions.
Here's a prediction of my own. Between now and the next election HY will present us with every fragment of evidence and a whole variety of scenarios, ranging from reasonably credible to utterly ludicrous, as to how the Tories are going to win the next GE. During the next GE campaign he'll be doing this, daily. All of this will be independent of the outcome of said election, the accuracy of his predictions essentially being random, before the event.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
Yes it is. The actual outcome looks like being a fairly comfortable Biden win. No glory either for the predictors of a landslide (like yours truly) or for predictors of a Trump win or a knife edge scenario. But no egg on face either. And kudos to HYUFD and one or two others for being correct on one very important specific - the polls were underestimating the Trump vote.
I think it will be one of the following PBers who gets closest in the end:
Andy Mal JackW OnlyLivingBoy
The current favourite is OLB I think – he has a real chance to get the EC vote spot on – albeit with a slightly incorrect mix of states.
Looking at the shocking scenes in Arizona and elsewhere, as mobs of Trump supporters seek to stop vote counts and intimidate election workers, I am reminded once more of how many Tories inside and outside the government are desperate for him to win.
It’s very dull watching you flex your moral superiority all the time
Says the man who called women pundits on TV “screeching harpies”.
To be fair to Charles he has been very supportive of Dido Harding and other women in public life who are personal friends of his.
Thats why he supports them it’s actually quite sickening to read his praise for them.
I think the criticism of Dido Harding has been reasonable based on a relatively poor career track record, the failure of TT and T to deliver a 'world beating' service, and the failure to consider adopting the local based model. I'm not so sure that the criticism of Kate Bingham is fair - she has a long career in exactly the field that is required, and as far as I know she has been successful. The criticism seems based on who she is married to.
All of a sudden, Trump seems like a figure of ridicule. Safe to mock, as his power over us has collapsed.
As goes Trump, so will Boris/Cummings/Brexit.
They could be finished with the counting of the next US Presidential election before we have the chance to vote against Johnson/Cummings. Whatever they want to do on Brexit will long since have happened.
We already have de jure Brexit, and we are about to get de facto Brexit. But “Brexit” as a force with any driving vitality is over.
Re-integration (though not rejoining) will be the theme of the 2020s.
For the Lib Dem membership. No-one else will want to hear about it.
Rejoin is not LD policy, at least at present, though close alignment is.
If Remainers had united around EFTA or 'Norway for Now' instead of futile nonsense we might have had a sane outcome. The opportunity is still there to unite gradualist Brexiteers and Remainers behind a 'join EFTA' option.
Ignoring your “sore winner” snipe at Remainers, the “join EFTA (or something that looks very much like EFTA)” campaign effectively starts 1 January.
However it will take place in think tanks and the bowels of Whitehall rather than being an overtly public campaign.
By 2024 it will be considered simple common sense. I don’t expect “Brexit” to dominate those elections.
A Biden win certainly makes it far more likely Boris will compromise with the EU to get a FTA with no US deal in the offing from Biden unless he does so
No, we will compromise because No Deal is impossible for us to implement on New Year's Day. So we have to have a deal. And the deal on offer is the current deal in a pretty dress and a new name.
Would not that be a disgraceful betrayal of everything Leavers voted for?
Asking for a friend.
Yes.
Rochdale is projecting what he wants to happen.
There will almost certainly be a deal because it is in both parties interests but it won't be what we have now.
I am stating - not predicting - that there has to be a deal. Because we cannot exit on No Deal or indeed any significant variance of what we have now due to our inaction in creating the capability to separate ourselves off. We cannot enter into customs standards and tariffs checks on 1st January which means we will have to continue with the existing EU standards and tariffs unless we want to extend which we legally cannot do.
What I wanted was for us to join EFTA and be a player. Instead we will be an addendum.
We absolutely can go to No Deal if that is what we choose to do. If there's some disruption we can live with that and do whatever is required to cope.
You are talking naively about tariff checks as if they need to happen, they don't. If we have no deal and the cost of doing tariff checks is more than the benefit of doing them then simply not doing them or streamlining them is an alternative option you are ignoring.
"Some disruption". OK. We start doing customs checks from 1st January on Food & Drink with no deal. That's according to what this government have decreed. The customs agents to check the forms don't exist The customs infrastructure to house the customs agents doesn't exist The computer system to process the forms doesn't exist The integration of the computer system into haulier's systems doesn't exist
Yet you claim that we absolutely can do all of this if we choose. How? Specifics please.
At the very least we will go "No Deal" but not actually change anything. Because it will take a long time to do all of the above. Until we do, we keep with the EU. And yet according to the government we won't extend any of the existing arrangements beyond midnight on New Year's Eve.
As we cannot go no deal at 00:01 on 1st January we therefore must have a deal. And we know what is on the table. A choice of names and a choice of pretty frocks and lipsticks for the pig.
I've just done a county by county model for Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Simply uprating each county by the % votes still be counted for that county gives an overall result of: Georgia Trump by 13,700 Arizona Biden by 76,500 Nevada Biden by 11,400
However that doesn't take into account the order in which votes are being counted. I believe Arizona and Nevada count mail-ins first and Georgia count them last. (Correct me if I'm wrong). On that basis, apportioning the outstanding votes pro-rata to their type (mail-in or not) I get: Georgia Trump by 10,900 Arizona Trump by 70,000 Nevada Biden by 7.600
So overall I'm estimating that the chances of a Biden victory are: Georgia <10% Arizona 50% Nevada >90%
I haven't modelled Pennsylvania. Betfair suggests Biden has a 75% chance.
Uisng those probabilities on my model of all 16 possible outcomes for those four states, I get a 87% chance that Biden will get 270+. This equates to a Biden price of 1.14.
If anyone wants to propose a different set of probabilities for the four states, I'm happy to run them through my model to estimate the overall probability of a Biden win.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
Biden has walked away with it. After all the counting is done, Biden is President Elect.
And I criticised HYUFD for treating Trafalgar as the gospel truth because they fluked two states right last time while getting other states wrong last time (but that was getting ignored). The results show that to be correct, Trafalgar are all over the place they are not seers.
Biden has not won a landslide.
I am not surprised you won't admit you got it wrong, as usual hypocrisy on this site knows no bounds.
Thanks @CorrectHorseBattery for your kind words earlier. Much appreciated. I see the revisionism is starting in earnest. For that reason alone, I will laugh my ass off if Trump actually does pull this off and wins or, as @HYUFD, predicted, it is a tie (especially as the last would also make me a lot of money, thanks @HYUFD for the tip).
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
No, it's not. They were much closer than most of us in the teeth of of a tidal wave of pro-Biden over-optimism, some of it from myself.
Hat-tip where hat-tips are due.
Thankyou Peter for your comments, I think it is fair to say I did not get it spot on if it is a solid Biden win rather than neck and neck as I was predicting but certainly did better than those who were predicting a Biden landslide, as did Mr Ed although he was the most heavily predicting a Trump win on here so was not spot on either
Thanks @HYFUD, I did think he would eek it out in the end (and he may still well do) but, fortunately from a betting perspective, I took the safer options of betting Trump at a range of 200-250 EC votes and 45%+ of the vote. I would still expect most of that to come through
The Trump over 45% bet, which I spotted and tipped myself, was certainly a cracker - probably the safest BFE punt of all that offered a reasonable return.
In terms of ECVs this is comfortable for Biden. He's taking Pennsylvania and probably Georgia. Nevada too and the latest batch from Arizona looks okay for him to hold on there.
That’s quite bullish - would be 306 in the Electoral College, not even close.
No, not a massively close election really. A PV win by maybe 5m and comfortable in the EC. The super closeness is an illusion fostered by the sequence of the count and the split between mail and in person voting. It's actually an Obama 2012 type affair. But it was quite close. I was hoping for (and expecting) more of an Obama 2008. Ah well, never mind. Like you (I sense) my main feeling is utter relief that Donald Trump is out. I don't get to experience the visceral joy of seeing him crushed, but that doesn't matter so much. He's leaving office. The election was a Referendum on him and by 52/48 the American people said No. This time the 52% got it right. The good guys won this one.
Sums up my own views, Kina.
Be back later. Must congratulate Hyufd and MrEd personally.
The most likely result is 306 - 232. Is that really that close?
MrEd was predicting a Trump win and HYUFD vacillated between a very narrow Trump win and very narrow Biden win.
If the end result is +74 I`ll row back my praise from election night of HYUFD just a touch I think.
Is that fair?
No, it's not. They were much closer than most of us in the teeth of of a tidal wave of pro-Biden over-optimism, some of it from myself.
Hat-tip where hat-tips are due.
Thankyou Peter for your comments, I think it is fair to say I did not get it spot on if it is a solid Biden win rather than neck and neck as I was predicting but certainly did better than those who were predicting a Biden landslide, as did Mr Ed although he was the most heavily predicting a Trump win on here so was not spot on either
Laughable. You were completely and utterly wrong. You were consistent in your belief that Trump would have no problem holding states in the Mid-West, relying heavily on Trafalgar. That turned out to be misplaced, exactly as people said it likely would be.
Yes but more for Bower than Boris, I think. As a way of saying that his book is just rubbish its really quite brutal. For Boris himself its more of the same.
Doesn't look as if Rory is planning on being a Tory again any time soon though, which is a shame.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
HYUFD did a very good job on this election. He was absolutely right to take the position he did.
Wut? He endlessly championed Trafalgar (in the face of overwhelming evidence) on the basis of correctly calling states and Trafalgar have turn be out to be incredibly wrong in calling states.
He was right about things being closer than many thought, and well done him for that especially as he always remains polite (if stuboorn), but as predicted people are jumping a little beyond that om in reassessing the narrative such as conflating criticism of opinions with criticism of the basis of Trafalgar predictions (not necessarily the predictions themselves even, though some of that did of course happen, but whether, right or wrong, their calls were based on something evidential) and so on. Congratulations to him for what he did get right, more right than me, but there's no need for people to prostrate themselves before the great prognosticator.
I think many did call a Biden landslide which obviously didn't happen and some have said they got it wrong which requires courage and respect. Sadly some others have already pretended they didn't make predictions that large or have tried to attack HYUFD and MrEd as being completely wrong when they were a lot closer than many.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
I'm standing by my predictions and think I was right.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
You most certainly attacked HYUFD for his predictions. I recall you mentioning Biden would walk away with it which to be implied a landslide.
Biden has walked away with it. After all the counting is done, Biden is President Elect.
And I criticised HYUFD for treating Trafalgar as the gospel truth because they fluked two states right last time while getting other states wrong last time (but that was getting ignored). The results show that to be correct, Trafalgar are all over the place they are not seers.
Biden has not won a landslide.
I am not surprised you won't admit you got it wrong, as usual hypocrisy on this site knows no bounds.
Except I never said that Biden would win a landslide! I said that Biden would win. No more, no less than that he would win and he has won.
I said that a landslide was more likely than a Trump victory but given I was rating a Trump victory as 3% that doesn't mean that I was predicting there would be a landslide. That's saying there is more than a 3% chance of a landslide.
Interesting to see if the Senate ends up 51-49 to the GOP. If it does then PR statehood may yet happen as Rubio is in favour of it, and with Biden president the Dems can win a 50-50 tie.
Hasn't McConnell got the choice of whether or not to bring it to the floor even if the House passes it? And do they have the chance to filibuster it if it does come through?
I heard an interesting theory this morning. That most of the power of the Majority Leader, in the US senate, is just convention.
Since the VP can preside in the Senate, so the theory goes, K. Harris could turn up to preside. And recognise the *Minority leader* - which would bypass McConnell's ability to prevent anything getting to the floor.
Comments
Asking for a friend.
Hat-tip where hat-tips are due.
Given what is coming out of Arizona, personal view is that there is a decent chance Trump retains it. Contrary to what some suggested here, the late votes coming in seem to be breaking for high in the percentages he needs. Whether that continues, we will see.
If he does win, that suggests the Trump's campaign's comments about AZ were well-founded and presumably their intelligence on the ground is good.
In that case, you might want to consider betting on NV for the Rs given his campaign were similarly optimistic and provided an outline of how they thought they would get there. I know Ralston thinks differently but I made the (possible) mistake of listening too much to him when not placing bets on NV.
I can't use Betfair at the moment but I would imagine the odds are decent.
(If anyone would put a bet on for me, I can send them payment across).
Something it is staggering that a fair few leading Conservatives dont seem to appreciate.
I was expecting 5 to 6, which I think will also be too much, but not too much (my ECV prediction of 306 is still possible).
The GOP will want a different framing, naturally.
Rochdale is projecting what he wants to happen.
There will almost certainly be a deal because it is in both parties interests but it won't be what we have now.
I remember the absolute barrage against those of us that predicted a Corbyn victory in 2019 and perhaps that was deserved. However some of those people equally predicted a Biden landslide and so their prediction records are now just as poor (relatively) as mine.
Nice to be back on a level footing!
And while their predictions proved off, they were not as far removed from reality as some of mine.
Like, wow.
Also it seems likely that he will do at least as well in the national vote share (margin) as the national vote for the House - again unlike in 2016 where he did 3% worse (Trump 2% behind, Republican House 1% ahead).
The last 2 sitting presidents (ie 2004 and 2012 elections) did slightly better than their parties in terms of national vote shares comparing president and House. We'll have to wait for final totals to see if Trump matches that. Comparing with senate results is more difficult because so many other factors are important.
Trump may well be a liability, but Mysticrose's claim that comparing Trump's vote with other Republican candidates vote in 2020 supports that doesn't seem to be based on very good evidence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zzb-7EH-MQ&feature=emb_logo Running Rubio would be good long term for the GOP even if he lost. It would create severe difficulties for the Democrats and hispanics in 2028
What I wanted was for us to join EFTA and be a player. Instead we will be an addendum.
My prediction was that Biden was so far in the lead and turnout was up so high that his odds of winning was 3+ on a pair of dice. That a Biden landslide was more likely than a Trump victory of any margin.
I stand by that. It looks like when all counting is done that it will be a fairly comfortable victory for Biden.
In dice terms it looks like the two dice landed on a 1 and a 4 so below mean expectations for Biden and the 1 gave some false hope to Trump but it was frankly more than enough.
Fur-farming might not happen in a field, but that doesn't mean it isn't "farming" just as much as dairy farming and the egg industry are. But I would support, for welfare reasons, a ban on battery hens, which strike me as an example of a low farming standard, and everything I have heard about fur production in the EU suggests that farm welfare standards in that sector are apalling. Having said before that I'm not in favour of banning it, I'll admit that the kind of welfare standards I would want to see imposed on the industry might well render it economically unviable...
It looks like several books have suspended their state markets, perhaps to allow their traders some sleep.
In a UK election, we all have a better feel, through our personal contacts in our localities, tons of anecdotes from people we know, and for many of us our direct experience of campaigning in the field or contacts with candidates and organisers. We also see more of the leaflets, the broadcasts, the interviews. In the domestic scenario we have a lot more data to work with, and less excuse for overly weighting fragments of data from a single source.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkdpzRDxTXU
Longer term Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P Bush, the Texas Land Commissioner, is a prospect but unlikely for at least 2 election cycles if he wins the Texas governorship in 2022 or 2026
But that is it. Same customs deal. Same standards. Same free trade. The right to have babies even though we can't have babies.
Sopel seems just to uncritically regurgitate whatever narrative he's been last fed.
You are talking naively about tariff checks as if they need to happen, they don't. If we have no deal and the cost of doing tariff checks is more than the benefit of doing them then simply not doing them or streamlining them is an alternative option you are ignoring.
Now it is about finding the most popular proposals possible that the Senate will block and scream about it. McConnell has pocket veto'd so much legislation by simply not bringing it to a vote and the American political media has been silent about it. But McConnell has always used the justification that Trump would veto so there was no point. Now that narrative is tripped from him.
The Dems need to identify populist bills that the Senate will need to vote down.
And do they have the chance to filibuster it if it does come through?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
Looking through each of the counties, it looks like most of them have broadly similar ranges of leads to what they had in 2016 for the parties' lead in the state ((I've taken this as +/- 10 either side but most are a fair few % points below that threshold).
However, there are three big ones where there has been a noticeable difference and where there are still chunks of votes left - Douglas (93 in; Biden at +25 vs +10.7 in 2016); Cobb (96% in; +14 vs +2.2); Gwinnett (97% in; Biden +18 vs +5.8 in 2016).
The obvious reaction is to say that these counties have seen noticeable swings to Biden because they are more urban, affluent etc. However, you haven't seen the same swings in the likes of DeKalb and Fulton.
Is there a possibility that this therefore might be more precinct related in terms of votes to come in or, as they are all absentee ballots, it is unlikely the ones to come in will have an unusually R tint?
(I'm not trying to cling on to a Trump win; I'm genuinely interested and, also, if it is the former, then it has obvious implications for the vote).
And yes, of course there will be a deal - and we await to see what type of immense victory it is spun as being and how some on here respond.
The GOP blocking it will appear beyond hypocritical. I haven't checked the number of PR natives in Florida but I believe it is not insignificant.
It is still not over yet, particularly if Trump holds AZ and flips NV,
I have however been very critical of HYUFD'S almost exclusive use of Trafalgar to demonstrate his point. HYUFD came to a pretty decent answer, but his reference texts were very poor. It wasn't that Trafalgar called it wrong, they didn't, but their workings out were all over the place.
And I criticised HYUFD for treating Trafalgar as the gospel truth because they fluked two states right last time while getting other states wrong last time (but that was getting ignored). The results show that to be correct, Trafalgar are all over the place they are not seers.
The BBC funding model is unique. But so is its quality and global reputation.
I am not surprised you won't admit you got it wrong, as usual hypocrisy on this site knows no bounds.
PA still quite strongly looking to be a Biden win but maybe not quite by the margin talked about yesterday.
Here's a prediction of my own. Between now and the next election HY will present us with every fragment of evidence and a whole variety of scenarios, ranging from reasonably credible to utterly ludicrous, as to how the Tories are going to win the next GE. During the next GE campaign he'll be doing this, daily. All of this will be independent of the outcome of said election, the accuracy of his predictions essentially being random, before the event.
Andy
Mal
JackW
OnlyLivingBoy
The current favourite is OLB I think – he has a real chance to get the EC vote spot on – albeit with a slightly incorrect mix of states.
But, Andy or Mal are also in with a good shout.
The customs agents to check the forms don't exist
The customs infrastructure to house the customs agents doesn't exist
The computer system to process the forms doesn't exist
The integration of the computer system into haulier's systems doesn't exist
Yet you claim that we absolutely can do all of this if we choose. How? Specifics please.
At the very least we will go "No Deal" but not actually change anything. Because it will take a long time to do all of the above. Until we do, we keep with the EU. And yet according to the government we won't extend any of the existing arrangements beyond midnight on New Year's Eve.
As we cannot go no deal at 00:01 on 1st January we therefore must have a deal. And we know what is on the table. A choice of names and a choice of pretty frocks and lipsticks for the pig.
Simply uprating each county by the % votes still be counted for that county gives an overall result of:
Georgia Trump by 13,700
Arizona Biden by 76,500
Nevada Biden by 11,400
However that doesn't take into account the order in which votes are being counted.
I believe Arizona and Nevada count mail-ins first and Georgia count them last. (Correct me if I'm wrong).
On that basis, apportioning the outstanding votes pro-rata to their type (mail-in or not) I get:
Georgia Trump by 10,900
Arizona Trump by 70,000
Nevada Biden by 7.600
So overall I'm estimating that the chances of a Biden victory are:
Georgia <10%
Arizona 50%
Nevada >90%
I haven't modelled Pennsylvania. Betfair suggests Biden has a 75% chance.
Uisng those probabilities on my model of all 16 possible outcomes for those four states, I get a 87% chance that Biden will get 270+. This equates to a Biden price of 1.14.
If anyone wants to propose a different set of probabilities for the four states, I'm happy to run them through my model to estimate the overall probability of a Biden win.
Even the Government is trying to avoid No Deal, hence why they rejoined the negotiations five seconds after they "left"
Trafalgar were wrong. Trump has lost.
And yet people are lauding HYUFD? He was wrong. Yes the counter predictions of landslide were also wrong. Its not an either / or
But now Biden is in it gives the Dems a better platform to complain about it.
Doesn't look as if Rory is planning on being a Tory again any time soon though, which is a shame.
I said that a landslide was more likely than a Trump victory but given I was rating a Trump victory as 3% that doesn't mean that I was predicting there would be a landslide. That's saying there is more than a 3% chance of a landslide.
Since the VP can preside in the Senate, so the theory goes, K. Harris could turn up to preside. And recognise the *Minority leader* - which would bypass McConnell's ability to prevent anything getting to the floor.
Any experts on US law in the... house?