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WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
  • Typical of the Govt's and/or the NHS's incompetence is the way in which they start a massive radio advertising campaign for the 'flu vaccine at precisely the time when it has proved virtually impossible to obtain a jab from one's local pharmacy. Although I understand that an emergency, no doubt very expensive supply of 2 million doses have recently been sourced in the U.S. Don't these idiots know how much they will need from year to year to the nearest million, perhaps over rather than under ordering?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
    I read that 80% of all recent cases in Wales were from this strain imported from Spain. If that isn't enough to convince you why foreign trips were a bad idea, I don't know what is.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Remember that the Proud Boys are on standby.
  • The crucial weekend polls are starting to come in and so far little to indicate a late recovery by The Orange One.

    Movements on Betfair have been glacial slow of late but Biden now in to 1.48 so perhaps the billy bunters are thinking time is about up for his opponent.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Remember that the Proud Boys are on standby.
    Is that a group like the Village People?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
    What risk in the airport. What risk in the place? etc etc

    Staying at home, working from home, venturing out to shop with mask etc. would have been lower risk for everyone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    So. It has been agreed that after 6 weeks in Tier 2, the NE has plateaud and has no need to go into Tier 3.
    Our reward?
    Tier 4.
    Thank you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    Is this a massive problem 33.7m mail ballots outstanding?

    Total Early Votes: 90,012,433

    In-Person Votes: 32,663,560 •

    Mail Ballots Returned: 57,348,873 •

    Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,680,976

    33 million voters thinking "Yeah, Trump is an asshat. But can I really vote for Biden...?"
    California sent a mail-in ballot to everyone in the state, which accounts for 12 million of that number.
    Which could skew the numbers, if the most populous state (and a Democrat stronghold) is pushing Biden's vote share abnormally high. All 12m could be posted for Biden - but it would have zero EC difference over 2016. Just means Biden s doing less well elsewhere.

    Just shooting the breeze though. I still can't see how Biden fails. But then, this is 2020. To think, just a year ago 20-20 was the touchstone for perfect vision....
  • RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
    I read that 80% of all recent cases in Wales were from this strain imported from Spain. If that isn't enough to convince you why foreign trips were a bad idea, I don't know what is.
    Not just Wales, the research found it was responsible for very large numbers of new cases all across Europe. This one outbreak at a Spain farm is estimated to be responsible for 80% of new cases in Spain, 60% in Ireland and up to 40% in Switzerland and France.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    3) and 6) are completely unenforceable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
    What risk in the airport. What risk in the place? etc etc

    Staying at home, working from home, venturing out to shop with mask etc. would have been lower risk for everyone.
    Also allowing people to travel widely, impossible to track and trace. Ask somebody who they encountered during 2 weeks on holidays, well 1000s at the airport, 100s at different bars, restaurants, the beach, etc. And who those people were, no idea.

    Very different from I spent 2 weeks working from home, I went for one meal with these 2 friends, I did 2 gym classes (where everybody is signed in), and I had a pint with a mate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    3) and 6) are completely unenforceable.
    At least there's a travel ban, although it should also apply to visitors.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1322560697407066112?s=20

    If there is to be a lockdown, what is the government going to do during it so things are different after it ends?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    FFS...basically 5 days on inaction....and people going crazy doing their "one last" whatever

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562698287210498?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562697058226176?s=20
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
    I read that 80% of all recent cases in Wales were from this strain imported from Spain. If that isn't enough to convince you why foreign trips were a bad idea, I don't know what is.
    In isolation that is meaningless. The strain had to come from somewhere. 68% of the Titanic's passengers died. If that isn't enough to convince you why taking a berth on the ship was a bad idea, I don't know what is.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889
    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:


    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.

    What's scary about where we are now is where the trajectory is heading. A firebreak sets the trajectory back. After a while, it returns and you need another firebreak.

    That's why I've been arguing for some time that we should have two-week lockdowns every two months, preplanned so people can organise their lives and businesses around them. Even if you really suffer in lockdowns, they won't feel so awful if you know their duration and regularity. It'd be far better then our current approach of telling people it'll probably be all right, then doing a panicky lockdown for a bit, then relaxing for a bit, etc.
    Nick, can I ask if you've ever run a business?

    It doesn't work with such regularity as the public sector. Lots of fortuitous purchases in retail, leisure etc. In some sectors it isn't possible to keep running up and down for long periods. EG Pubs, restaurants. And that is before the problem of public reluctance to shop/spend/eat out is taken into account.

    I am aghast at the notion of a national lockdown. It simply wont be well observed. How fair is it for the good folk of Dorset to be locked down because Manchester has a problem?
    Unfortunately our quest is for the least grim of the grim options available. The Covid delta between Dorset and Manchester is a matter of a few short weeks. If we wait for Dorset to become Manchester before acting it just means that the action needed ends up being tougher and longer.
    What makes you think Dorset levels are going to get to Manchester levels? Given its a largely rural county this seems very unlikely to me.
    Depends of the number of Londoners who come along to contaminate it, I suppose. Do you count Bournemouth as rural?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Today is the last day of early voting in many states will turnout reach 66.67% of 2016 levels or can it do better?

    I realize a couple of states are very low but think we could be circa 70% by the time all the returns are tallied

    Anything over 64% would be the highest ever in the era of universal suffrage, I believe.

    Biden likely to the most voted for candidate in US history.
    Yep. A possible scenario is Donald Trump to get more votes than any presidential candidate in history - except Joe Biden with 10m more.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Just booking a flight to Lanzarote, Wednesday
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IanB2 said:

    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kicorse said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    If they ask it, they'll deserve a contemptuous response. By now, any journalist should understand that you can be a vector of a deadly disease even if you don't die from it yourself.
    So the young are to have their future destroyed to keep sick oldies alive a few more months and so that obese slobs can have their risks reduced slightly.

    Lockdown the young now because we allowed holidays to Spain in July.
    Presumably the young weren't among those taking advantage of being allowed to take holidays to Spain in July so are absolved of all responsibility.
    I don't condemn people for holidaying in Spain, or Greece. Both countries have had a really torrid time in recent years. I was astonished to learn just how important British tourism is to each of their economies (the absence of foreign holidays has been a big factor in the UK trade surplus).
    I dunno. To take a foreign holiday in the middle of a global pandemic is pretty dumb.
    It did wonders for my mental health. And I had a great time, at negligible risk to my health.
    What about the health of others?
    All good.
    The beauty of COVID is that you could have had it, completely asymptomatically, passed in on to tons of people. etc etc.

    You have no way of knowing, short of an antibody test.
    But why the theory that there is increased risk in going to the nasty dirty abroad? Except for countries with demonstrably higher rates of infection than here, who is to say that if I had stayed at home the virus might have mutated in my next door neighbour who would then have popped round and infected me, so I was actually dodging a bullet on my own behalf and those whom I might otherwise have infected by going off on holiday?
    I read that 80% of all recent cases in Wales were from this strain imported from Spain. If that isn't enough to convince you why foreign trips were a bad idea, I don't know what is.
    In isolation that is meaningless. The strain had to come from somewhere. 68% of the Titanic's passengers died. If that isn't enough to convince you why taking a berth on the ship was a bad idea, I don't know what is.
    It had to come from somewhere? No it didn't if people weren't travelling!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    ClippP said:

    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:


    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.

    What's scary about where we are now is where the trajectory is heading. A firebreak sets the trajectory back. After a while, it returns and you need another firebreak.

    That's why I've been arguing for some time that we should have two-week lockdowns every two months, preplanned so people can organise their lives and businesses around them. Even if you really suffer in lockdowns, they won't feel so awful if you know their duration and regularity. It'd be far better then our current approach of telling people it'll probably be all right, then doing a panicky lockdown for a bit, then relaxing for a bit, etc.
    Nick, can I ask if you've ever run a business?

    It doesn't work with such regularity as the public sector. Lots of fortuitous purchases in retail, leisure etc. In some sectors it isn't possible to keep running up and down for long periods. EG Pubs, restaurants. And that is before the problem of public reluctance to shop/spend/eat out is taken into account.

    I am aghast at the notion of a national lockdown. It simply wont be well observed. How fair is it for the good folk of Dorset to be locked down because Manchester has a problem?
    Unfortunately our quest is for the least grim of the grim options available. The Covid delta between Dorset and Manchester is a matter of a few short weeks. If we wait for Dorset to become Manchester before acting it just means that the action needed ends up being tougher and longer.
    What makes you think Dorset levels are going to get to Manchester levels? Given its a largely rural county this seems very unlikely to me.
    Depends of the number of Londoners who come along to contaminate it, I suppose. Do you count Bournemouth as rural?
    No, thats why I said 'largely' rather than 'entirely'....

    We are in a much better position than elsewhere. If Peston is right and we get put into Tier 4, I'll be fuming.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Utterly predictable we would end up in national lockdown. Boris has wasted weeks dithering and kidding himself all would be fine.

    Not sure Drakeford is wise either to promise what will happen post- firebreak.

    At some point politicians need to understand - the virus sets the timetable, not them.

    Yep Drakeford is trying to get political "credit" for acting early. But come next week Wales is going to be on a par, at best, with middle of the road English regions. So quite why they will be in a position to say a decisive "no" to a longer lockdown, as England enters one, isn't clear.

    Sturgeon also seems to be claiming that she might not need to follow England because "the signs are that transmission in Scotland is coming down". Well exactly the same is true in England on their published data. R number falling. Almost below 1 in the North West - the area with the harshest restrictions. Quite why we are publishing data in England when the scientists seems to dismiss everything it is saying in favour of their own models, who knows?
    Drakeford deserves a bit of credit for recognising the obvious a few weeks earlier than Boris (or Sturgeon...)

    I suspect the firebreak will have a big impact and will reduce infections substantially. Time will tell.

    Unless Drakeford has data to back him up we haven't seen, it's foolish to promise what he will do after the firebreak.
    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.
    If we can get cases down to the point where track, trace, isolate can cope, then we can control the epidemic and we won't need more lockdowns.

    In addition - more time gives us chance to improve TTI system, gets us closer to a vaccine and better treatments, AND prevents the inevitable Christmas increase in contacts from being quite so devastating.
    So the system magically fixes itself? If it was possible to do it then it would have happened by now.
    The system has a capacity it can handle and a capacity it cannot.

    If there was 1 covid case in the UK, I suspect even Dido Harding could manage to trace all of those contacts in 24 hours and get enough of them to isolate to keep R under 1.

    Presumably the continuing efforts to improve capacity are having some positive effect.

    So capacity is continually growing, unfortunately it is lagging the virus. Circuit break for 3 weeks could plausibly reduce cases by 40-50%.

    That *might* be enough to get things back under control.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    LadyG said:

    Just booking a flight to Lanzarote, Wednesday

    Murderer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
    Until the 2nd Dec....Boris will spin this action as to save Christmas, and so people will still be planning Christmas getaways, skiing in the spring....they should be telling people, Tier 4 or not, sorry outbound travel for leisure is off the table for 6 months.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    National - Gravis Marketing - C rated - 1281 LV - 27/29 Oct

    Biden 50 .. Trump 44 - Final Poll

    https://gravismarketing.com/final-national-poll-2020/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    3) and 6) are completely unenforceable.
    At least there's a travel ban, although it should also apply to visitors.
    Absolutely. Arrivals need to be put in hotels for 2 weeks (or very least tested on arrival, hotel, tested 5 days later). Its not rocket science. I don't give a f##k if it sounds harsh or unfair.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    It's all about being first, they don't give a hoot about the damage it does.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Mortimer said:

    ClippP said:

    Mortimer said:

    kinabalu said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:


    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.

    What's scary about where we are now is where the trajectory is heading. A firebreak sets the trajectory back. After a while, it returns and you need another firebreak.

    That's why I've been arguing for some time that we should have two-week lockdowns every two months, preplanned so people can organise their lives and businesses around them. Even if you really suffer in lockdowns, they won't feel so awful if you know their duration and regularity. It'd be far better then our current approach of telling people it'll probably be all right, then doing a panicky lockdown for a bit, then relaxing for a bit, etc.
    Nick, can I ask if you've ever run a business?

    It doesn't work with such regularity as the public sector. Lots of fortuitous purchases in retail, leisure etc. In some sectors it isn't possible to keep running up and down for long periods. EG Pubs, restaurants. And that is before the problem of public reluctance to shop/spend/eat out is taken into account.

    I am aghast at the notion of a national lockdown. It simply wont be well observed. How fair is it for the good folk of Dorset to be locked down because Manchester has a problem?
    Unfortunately our quest is for the least grim of the grim options available. The Covid delta between Dorset and Manchester is a matter of a few short weeks. If we wait for Dorset to become Manchester before acting it just means that the action needed ends up being tougher and longer.
    What makes you think Dorset levels are going to get to Manchester levels? Given its a largely rural county this seems very unlikely to me.
    Depends of the number of Londoners who come along to contaminate it, I suppose. Do you count Bournemouth as rural?
    No, thats why I said 'largely' rather than 'entirely'....

    We are in a much better position than elsewhere. If Peston is right and we get put into Tier 4, I'll be fuming.
    Not as fuming as I'll be.
    Tier 2 is working here.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,123
    edited October 2020

    Is this a massive problem 33.7m mail ballots outstanding?

    Total Early Votes: 90,012,433

    In-Person Votes: 32,663,560 •

    Mail Ballots Returned: 57,348,873 •

    Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,680,976

    Nine states and DC automatically send out postal votes to all registered voters including some big ones. They are California, New Jersey, Vermont, Nevada, Colorado, Washington, Utah, Hawaii, and Oregon. So I'd assume all non-voters in these states would be in "mail ballots outstanding". It therefore doesn't strike me as a surprising figure (and of course some will still get there in time or be dropped off in person on the day).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Remember that the Proud Boys are on standby.
    Is that a group like the Village People?
    If only. These guys are utterly devoid of camp self-deprecation and a sense of fun and frivolity.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Is this a massive problem 33.7m mail ballots outstanding?

    Total Early Votes: 90,012,433

    In-Person Votes: 32,663,560 •

    Mail Ballots Returned: 57,348,873 •

    Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,680,976

    Good question. I presume there will always be a proportion of people who request ballots and then can't be arsed to return them. But +35% sounds high.

    Maybe they are in the post?
    Thats what worries me i am hoping a lot are received but not yet processed
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    3) and 6) are completely unenforceable.
    At least there's a travel ban, although it should also apply to visitors.
    Absolutely. Arrivals need to be put in hotels for 2 weeks (or very least tested on arrival, hotel, tested 5 days later). Its not rocket science. I don't give a f##k if it sounds harsh or unfair.
    And thumping great fines for those who breach the regs.

    Guernsey is up to 10 cases - all linked, all in quarantine, all - except the initial case, identified through Test Track & Trace.
  • That's how bad the government have handled things, that Piers Morgan is the voice of reason.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    3) and 6) are completely unenforceable.
    At least there's a travel ban, although it should also apply to visitors.
    Absolutely. Arrivals need to be put in hotels for 2 weeks (or very least tested on arrival, hotel, tested 5 days later). Its not rocket science. I don't give a f##k if it sounds harsh or unfair.
    And thumping great fines for those who breach the regs.

    Guernsey is up to 10 cases - all linked, all in quarantine, all - except the initial case, identified through Test Track & Trace.
    Absolutely. Again, I don't give a shit you thought it didn't apply to you or that "it just got out of hand"....Under these circumstances, I have no issue with tagging people to make monitor them during their stay in the hotel, however much people scream it makes them look and feel like a criminal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Just booking a flight to Lanzarote, Wednesday

    Very windy place. Pack carefully and counter-intuitively You'll need what you think you won't and not need what you think you will.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    Can you tell me how many staff in schools and universities fall into that age bracket?

    And to go for the hat trick - how much understanding of either the disease or the issues it causes do you have?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    RobD said:

    It's all about being first, they don't give a hoot about the damage it does.
    That is their job. The focus should be on who told him. If they had an inquiry to nail that creep Williamson they should immediately have one into this.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Today is the last day of early voting in many states will turnout reach 66.67% of 2016 levels or can it do better?

    I realize a couple of states are very low but think we could be circa 70% by the time all the returns are tallied

    Anything over 64% would be the highest ever in the era of universal suffrage, I believe.

    Biden likely to the most voted for candidate in US history.
    70% of 2016 level is not 64% of registered voters though
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited October 2020

    Is this a massive problem 33.7m mail ballots outstanding?

    Total Early Votes: 90,012,433

    In-Person Votes: 32,663,560 •

    Mail Ballots Returned: 57,348,873 •

    Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,680,976

    33 million voters thinking "Yeah, Trump is an asshat. But can I really vote for Biden...?"
    Spooky the affinity you have with potential Trump voters

    Is this a massive problem 33.7m mail ballots outstanding?

    Total Early Votes: 90,012,433

    In-Person Votes: 32,663,560 •

    Mail Ballots Returned: 57,348,873 •

    Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,680,976

    33 million voters thinking "Yeah, Trump is an asshat. But can I really vote for Biden...?"
    California sent a mail-in ballot to everyone in the state, which accounts for 12 million of that number.
    Which could skew the numbers, if the most populous state (and a Democrat stronghold) is pushing Biden's vote share abnormally high. All 12m could be posted for Biden - but it would have zero EC difference over 2016. Just means Biden s doing less well elsewhere.

    Just shooting the breeze though. I still can't see how Biden fails. But then, this is 2020. To think, just a year ago 20-20 was the touchstone for perfect vision....
    And now it's a drive to Barnard Castle...
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    What a monumentally dismal prospect we face
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    3) and 6) are completely unenforceable.
    At least there's a travel ban, although it should also apply to visitors.
    Absolutely. Arrivals need to be put in hotels for 2 weeks (or very least tested on arrival, hotel, tested 5 days later). Its not rocket science. I don't give a f##k if it sounds harsh or unfair.
    Just about what the Thai Govt did, and they've got land borders. Very few cases now.My son really needs to go to Singapore now, and is having to negotiate with Americans who don't appear to fully understand!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    ydoethur said:

    Here's a question Peston and co might like to ask today:

    Can you tell me how many in the 0-19 age group have died in English hospitals during the last month ?

    The answer is zero.

    And a total of one during the last four months.

    Can you tell me how many staff in schools and universities fall into that age bracket?

    And to go for the hat trick - how much understanding of either the disease or the issues it causes do you have?
    Good luck. We haven't seen the best of Richard today. Perhaps you can bring it out.
  • That's how bad the government have handled things, that Piers Morgan is the voice of reason.
    I have to say the one sketch I have seen from the new Spitting Image that actually made me laugh was Piers Morgan as the replacement for gunnersaurus.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    Just booking a flight to Lanzarote, Wednesday

    Very windy place. Pack carefully and counter-intuitively You'll need what you think you won't and not need what you think you will.
    I've been several times. There's a little bay in the south which is entirely sheltered from the winds, and gets the best and warmest sun. That's where you need to be.
  • Mortimer said:

    Sky reporting from Liverpool just now showing a queue for a Halloween fancy dress shop.

    The reporter commented that on speaking to those in the queue they want to get their fancy dress for their parties tonight and have no intention of following the rules

    No matter what Boris does or anyone else fighting this pandemic until a strictly policed stay at home curfew is introduced this pandemic will continue unchecked

    So rather than lockdown the shops, have a strictly policed curfew? For someone who needed regular inhalations of smelling salts just 'cos of the great Drakeford repression of toaster sales, you have a strangely inconsistent position on authoritarian measures.
    In the areas that need it...
    So allow shops to stay open but use (scarce) police resources to keep people off the streets so those shops don't make sales anyway?

    I'm sure Boris wouldn't mind floating a shoot-to-kill policy to enforce a curfew for mawkishly sentimental Scousers and 'a society that has become hooked on grief and likes to wallow in a sense of vicarious victimhood’.
    Not sure you understand the curfew

    It is designed to stop people socialising in the evening but allowing normal social distancing shopping

    France has introduced one between 9.00pm and 6.00am
    Will this be an enforced curfew or one of them cuddly, voluntary ones?
    If you have a curfew it is enforced as in France
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Mortimer said:

    Sky reporting from Liverpool just now showing a queue for a Halloween fancy dress shop.

    The reporter commented that on speaking to those in the queue they want to get their fancy dress for their parties tonight and have no intention of following the rules

    No matter what Boris does or anyone else fighting this pandemic until a strictly policed stay at home curfew is introduced this pandemic will continue unchecked

    So rather than lockdown the shops, have a strictly policed curfew? For someone who needed regular inhalations of smelling salts just 'cos of the great Drakeford repression of toaster sales, you have a strangely inconsistent position on authoritarian measures.
    In the areas that need it...
    So allow shops to stay open but use (scarce) police resources to keep people off the streets so those shops don't make sales anyway?

    I'm sure Boris wouldn't mind floating a shoot-to-kill policy to enforce a curfew for mawkishly sentimental Scousers and 'a society that has become hooked on grief and likes to wallow in a sense of vicarious victimhood’.
    He won’t want shoot to kill for lockdown breakers. For reasons that continue to defy understanding, he values Cummings.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston I wonder?
    He's pretty much persona-non-grata quite widely. Therefore it's an interesting question, and quite risky for whoever is.

    Why's he 'Prof'? Surely no Uni has given him an honorary professorship?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    I can only conclude that Peston has formulated the policy and written Bozo's speech.
  • LadyG said:

    What a monumentally dismal prospect we face

    Endless jeremiads on the internet not being the least of them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    That's how bad the government have handled things, that Piers Morgan is the voice of reason.
    PM for PM!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:


    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.

    What's scary about where we are now is where the trajectory is heading. A firebreak sets the trajectory back. After a while, it returns and you need another firebreak.

    That's why I've been arguing for some time that we should have two-week lockdowns every two months, preplanned so people can organise their lives and businesses around them. Even if you really suffer in lockdowns, they won't feel so awful if you know their duration and regularity. It'd be far better then our current approach of telling people it'll probably be all right, then doing a panicky lockdown for a bit, then relaxing for a bit, etc.
    Nick, can I ask if you've ever run a business?

    It doesn't work with such regularity as the public sector. Lots of fortuitous purchases in retail, leisure etc. In some sectors it isn't possible to keep running up and down for long periods. EG Pubs, restaurants. And that is before the problem of public reluctance to shop/spend/eat out is taken into account.

    I am aghast at the notion of a national lockdown. It simply wont be well observed. How fair is it for the good folk of Dorset to be locked down because Manchester has a problem?
    It is easy to spot the Tories, all you get is "F you I am all right Jack", full of the milk of human kindness.
  • 21,915 new cases reported today.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
    Until the 2nd Dec....Boris will spin this action as to save Christmas, and so people will still be planning Christmas getaways, skiing in the spring....they should be telling people, Tier 4 or not, sorry outbound travel for leisure is off the table for 6 months.
    And Christmas is cancelled
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Like the famous time a shoplifter foolishly tried his hand at his trade - in front of a convention of store detectives.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    LadyG said:

    What a monumentally dismal prospect we face

    Lanzarote ain't that bad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    Omnium said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston I wonder?
    He's pretty much persona-non-grata quite widely. Therefore it's an interesting question, and quite risky for whoever is.

    Why's he 'Prof'? Surely no Uni has given him an honorary professorship?
    Its taking the piss, because so many times he has rocked up and asked this long winded question as if he is an international expert on the subject only for people who know what they are talking about to point out he is talking utter shit / misunderstood the facts e.g. his stuff on chemical engineering.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    That's how bad the government have handled things, that Piers Morgan is the voice of reason.
    PM for PM!!
    Er...no.
  • Remember when I said that there were in effect 5 tiers of Shagger's 3 tier plan? That as well the missing "Low" tier we would have to have an "Extremely High" tier because Whitty said 3 wouldn't be enough? I remember some (like Philip) doggedly insisting that wasn't true.

    And yet here we are with Tier 4. Don't forget folks. It is NOT a national lockdown. Merely a new very high regional tier shutting pubs and shops and banning travel being applied to all regions at once.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    edited October 2020

    Is this a massive problem 33.7m mail ballots outstanding?

    Total Early Votes: 90,012,433

    In-Person Votes: 32,663,560 •

    Mail Ballots Returned: 57,348,873 •

    Mail Ballots Outstanding: 33,680,976

    Nine states and DC automatically send out postal votes to all registered voters including some big ones. They are California, New Jersey, Vermont, Nevada, Colorado, Washington, Utah, Hawaii, and Oregon. So I'd assume all non-voters in these states would be in "mail ballots outstanding". It therefore doesn't strike me as a surprising figure (and of course some will still get there in time or be dropped off in person on the day).
    OK Thanks

    6,531 lower than an hour ago.

    Now only 33,674,445
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691

    Omnium said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston I wonder?
    He's pretty much persona-non-grata quite widely. Therefore it's an interesting question, and quite risky for whoever is.

    Why's he 'Prof'? Surely no Uni has given him an honorary professorship?
    Its taking the piss, because so many times he has rocked up and asked this long winded question as if he is an international expert on the subject only for people who know what they are talking about to point out he is talking utter shit / misunderstood the facts e.g. his stuff on chemical engineering.
    He is remarkably long-winded.

    Reassured that nobody has ever thought him wise.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    LadyG said:

    kinabalu said:

    LadyG said:

    Just booking a flight to Lanzarote, Wednesday

    Very windy place. Pack carefully and counter-intuitively You'll need what you think you won't and not need what you think you will.
    I've been several times. There's a little bay in the south which is entirely sheltered from the winds, and gets the best and warmest sun. That's where you need to be.
    First holiday with the person who became my 2nd wife. We won a karaoke contest as a duet doing I Got You Babe. Still have the 1st prize tee shirts.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    nichomar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
    Until the 2nd Dec....Boris will spin this action as to save Christmas, and so people will still be planning Christmas getaways, skiing in the spring....they should be telling people, Tier 4 or not, sorry outbound travel for leisure is off the table for 6 months.
    And Christmas is cancelled
    The whole point of this is to get the virus sufficiently suppressed to allow a couple of weeks of easing around Christmas. However I suspect the lockdown will then be swiftly reimposed in January. We are staring at this until spring 2021. Right through the fucking winter.

    Is it OK to drink gin at 4.16pm?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    LadyG said:

    Just booking a flight to Lanzarote, Wednesday

    Is Boris's new lockdown going to allow you to go?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Utterly predictable we would end up in national lockdown. Boris has wasted weeks dithering and kidding himself all would be fine.

    Not sure Drakeford is wise either to promise what will happen post- firebreak.

    At some point politicians need to understand - the virus sets the timetable, not them.

    Yep Drakeford is trying to get political "credit" for acting early. But come next week Wales is going to be on a par, at best, with middle of the road English regions. So quite why they will be in a position to say a decisive "no" to a longer lockdown, as England enters one, isn't clear.

    Sturgeon also seems to be claiming that she might not need to follow England because "the signs are that transmission in Scotland is coming down". Well exactly the same is true in England on their published data. R number falling. Almost below 1 in the North West - the area with the harshest restrictions. Quite why we are publishing data in England when the scientists seems to dismiss everything it is saying in favour of their own models, who knows?
    Drakeford deserves a bit of credit for recognising the obvious a few weeks earlier than Boris (or Sturgeon...)

    I suspect the firebreak will have a big impact and will reduce infections substantially. Time will tell.

    Unless Drakeford has data to back him up we haven't seen, it's foolish to promise what he will do after the firebreak.
    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.
    If we can get cases down to the point where track, trace, isolate can cope, then we can control the epidemic and we won't need more lockdowns.

    In addition - more time gives us chance to improve TTI system, gets us closer to a vaccine and better treatments, AND prevents the inevitable Christmas increase in contacts from being quite so devastating.
    So the system magically fixes itself? If it was possible to do it then it would have happened by now.
    The system has a capacity it can handle and a capacity it cannot.

    If there was 1 covid case in the UK, I suspect even Dido Harding could manage to trace all of those contacts in 24 hours and get enough of them to isolate to keep R under 1.

    Presumably the continuing efforts to improve capacity are having some positive effect.

    So capacity is continually growing, unfortunately it is lagging the virus. Circuit break for 3 weeks could plausibly reduce cases by 40-50%.

    That *might* be enough to get things back under control.
    What a load of rubbish. It's the same system that had plenty of capacity in August and we ended up in this situation.

    Testing capacity isn't a problem, it's keeping the people who have the virus separate from those who don't. You like many others have completely misunderstood what the problem actually is. More of the same testing capacity won't change anything and we're going to be back where we are today within a couple of weeks at best, or more realistically nothing is actually going to change.
  • Omnium said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston I wonder?
    He's pretty much persona-non-grata quite widely. Therefore it's an interesting question, and quite risky for whoever is.

    Why's he 'Prof'? Surely no Uni has given him an honorary professorship?
    Its taking the piss, because so many times he has rocked up and asked this long winded question as if he is an international expert on the subject only for people who know what they are talking about to point out he is talking utter shit / misunderstood the facts e.g. his stuff on chemical engineering.
    On a similar basis it's Prof Neil I guess.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Utterly predictable we would end up in national lockdown. Boris has wasted weeks dithering and kidding himself all would be fine.

    Not sure Drakeford is wise either to promise what will happen post- firebreak.

    At some point politicians need to understand - the virus sets the timetable, not them.

    Yep Drakeford is trying to get political "credit" for acting early. But come next week Wales is going to be on a par, at best, with middle of the road English regions. So quite why they will be in a position to say a decisive "no" to a longer lockdown, as England enters one, isn't clear.

    Sturgeon also seems to be claiming that she might not need to follow England because "the signs are that transmission in Scotland is coming down". Well exactly the same is true in England on their published data. R number falling. Almost below 1 in the North West - the area with the harshest restrictions. Quite why we are publishing data in England when the scientists seems to dismiss everything it is saying in favour of their own models, who knows?
    Drakeford deserves a bit of credit for recognising the obvious a few weeks earlier than Boris (or Sturgeon...)

    I suspect the firebreak will have a big impact and will reduce infections substantially. Time will tell.

    Unless Drakeford has data to back him up we haven't seen, it's foolish to promise what he will do after the firebreak.
    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.
    If we can get cases down to the point where track, trace, isolate can cope, then we can control the epidemic and we won't need more lockdowns.

    In addition - more time gives us chance to improve TTI system, gets us closer to a vaccine and better treatments, AND prevents the inevitable Christmas increase in contacts from being quite so devastating.
    Getting track and trace to work is the new unicorn poo. Two week break to "sort it", is horseshit. The reality is it isn't possible to do this manually. The way the disease is, by the time you have a test, its been 4-5 days of infecting other people, then a day to get the results, then at least another day to start to try and work out who you spent any time with over the past week, and you won't know the people you sat next to on the Tube, its easy to forget your neighbour popped round for a quick chat, who that person who was in the gym getting changed next to you.

    And nobody is suggesting we do much more than change from a central system to a local run by local authorities involving door knocking, which maybe be better at actually contacting some people, but is even slower to go on foot door to door. And evidence so far, the likes of PHE were the worst at trying to organize testing.

    A working test, track and trace system capable of reacting to this required 5 years of development in South Korea, one if not the most technologically advanced nations on earth.
    I don't understand this veering between hubris and defeatism.

    A 3 week break could reduce cases by ~40%.
    At the same time, testing capacity should increase.

    If we look at the past 3 weeks, testing capacity increased by ~40%.
    We need lots of excess capacity to run tests as fast as possible, the fact that most tests aren't turned around in 24 hours is critical.

    Hiring some more people in local public health should also help. We should also put in place better incentives to isolate.

    Will that be enough - I don't know. But it plausibly could be. We should definitely try!

    South Korea may have needed 5 years of development for its system, but we should be able to make much faster progress if we make it our #1 priority and invest accordingly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Remember when I said that there were in effect 5 tiers of Shagger's 3 tier plan? That as well the missing "Low" tier we would have to have an "Extremely High" tier because Whitty said 3 wouldn't be enough? I remember some (like Philip) doggedly insisting that wasn't true.

    And yet here we are with Tier 4. Don't forget folks. It is NOT a national lockdown. Merely a new very high regional tier shutting pubs and shops and banning travel being applied to all regions at once.

    Oh how they scoffed when Sturgeon announced a Tier 4.
  • As well as the person who had an air rage incident on a plane full of rugby players.
  • That's how bad the government have handled things, that Piers Morgan is the voice of reason.
    PM for PM!!
    I wouldn't go that far.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
    Until the 2nd Dec....Boris will spin this action as to save Christmas, and so people will still be planning Christmas getaways, skiing in the spring....they should be telling people, Tier 4 or not, sorry outbound travel for leisure is off the table for 6 months.
    And Christmas is cancelled
    The whole point of this is to get the virus sufficiently suppressed to allow a couple of weeks of easing around Christmas. However I suspect the lockdown will then be swiftly reimposed in January. We are staring at this until spring 2021. Right through the fucking winter.

    Is it OK to drink gin at 4.16pm?
    I expect that doing anything remotely amusing or enjoyable will shortly be illegal.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    21,915. Numbers down again (compared to last Saturday). But obviously if the Scientists have their own data...
  • Come off it. This ISN'T a national lockdown - such a thing would be a disaster. No, it is simply an extension of the regional tier strategy. With a new tier added on top that we definitely didn't need. Applied in every region of the nation. With a travel ban to keep our country moving.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    So... On holiday in Cornwall this week. Will we have to come home before Thursday? Or can we stay until Saturday as planned and paid for?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    LadyG said:

    What a monumentally dismal prospect we face

    And it's not even 5 o'clock yet.
  • LadyG said:

    What a monumentally dismal prospect we face

    Don't worry, it'll be fine, new season of The Crown out during lockdown.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Utterly predictable we would end up in national lockdown. Boris has wasted weeks dithering and kidding himself all would be fine.

    Not sure Drakeford is wise either to promise what will happen post- firebreak.

    At some point politicians need to understand - the virus sets the timetable, not them.

    Yep Drakeford is trying to get political "credit" for acting early. But come next week Wales is going to be on a par, at best, with middle of the road English regions. So quite why they will be in a position to say a decisive "no" to a longer lockdown, as England enters one, isn't clear.

    Sturgeon also seems to be claiming that she might not need to follow England because "the signs are that transmission in Scotland is coming down". Well exactly the same is true in England on their published data. R number falling. Almost below 1 in the North West - the area with the harshest restrictions. Quite why we are publishing data in England when the scientists seems to dismiss everything it is saying in favour of their own models, who knows?
    Drakeford deserves a bit of credit for recognising the obvious a few weeks earlier than Boris (or Sturgeon...)

    I suspect the firebreak will have a big impact and will reduce infections substantially. Time will tell.

    Unless Drakeford has data to back him up we haven't seen, it's foolish to promise what he will do after the firebreak.
    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.
    If we can get cases down to the point where track, trace, isolate can cope, then we can control the epidemic and we won't need more lockdowns.

    In addition - more time gives us chance to improve TTI system, gets us closer to a vaccine and better treatments, AND prevents the inevitable Christmas increase in contacts from being quite so devastating.
    Getting track and trace to work is the new unicorn poo. Two week break to "sort it", is horseshit. The reality is it isn't possible to do this manually. The way the disease is, by the time you have a test, its been 4-5 days of infecting other people, then a day to get the results, then at least another day to start to try and work out who you spent any time with over the past week, and you won't know the people you sat next to on the Tube, its easy to forget your neighbour popped round for a quick chat, who that person who was in the gym getting changed next to you.

    And nobody is suggesting we do much more than change from a central system to a local run by local authorities involving door knocking, which maybe be better at actually contacting some people, but is even slower to go on foot door to door. And evidence so far, the likes of PHE were the worst at trying to organize testing.

    A working test, track and trace system capable of reacting to this required 5 years of development in South Korea, one if not the most technologically advanced nations on earth.
    I don't understand this veering between hubris and defeatism.

    A 3 week break could reduce cases by ~40%.
    At the same time, testing capacity should increase.

    If we look at the past 3 weeks, testing capacity increased by ~40%.
    We need lots of excess capacity to run tests as fast as possible, the fact that most tests aren't turned around in 24 hours is critical.

    Hiring some more people in local public health should also help. We should also put in place better incentives to isolate.

    Will that be enough - I don't know. But it plausibly could be. We should definitely try!

    South Korea may have needed 5 years of development for its system, but we should be able to make much faster progress if we make it our #1 priority and invest accordingly.
    Never any hubris here. I am just a realist. There are no easy quick fix solutions. But there are some big steps we could take, but instead politicians try and sell us the easy answers and tell us that we can have our normal lives back in a few weeks.

    The reality is we need big travel restrictions, we need very strict quarantine / isolation, we need to keep places like pubs closed, and we needed to do that for a year.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Race war in France to add to the fun. Ho ho ho
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston I wonder?
    Hopefully not the same person that told him that the three tiers would be all guidance and no regulations.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    alex_ said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Utterly predictable we would end up in national lockdown. Boris has wasted weeks dithering and kidding himself all would be fine.

    Not sure Drakeford is wise either to promise what will happen post- firebreak.

    At some point politicians need to understand - the virus sets the timetable, not them.

    Yep Drakeford is trying to get political "credit" for acting early. But come next week Wales is going to be on a par, at best, with middle of the road English regions. So quite why they will be in a position to say a decisive "no" to a longer lockdown, as England enters one, isn't clear.

    Sturgeon also seems to be claiming that she might not need to follow England because "the signs are that transmission in Scotland is coming down". Well exactly the same is true in England on their published data. R number falling. Almost below 1 in the North West - the area with the harshest restrictions. Quite why we are publishing data in England when the scientists seems to dismiss everything it is saying in favour of their own models, who knows?
    Drakeford deserves a bit of credit for recognising the obvious a few weeks earlier than Boris (or Sturgeon...)

    I suspect the firebreak will have a big impact and will reduce infections substantially. Time will tell.

    Unless Drakeford has data to back him up we haven't seen, it's foolish to promise what he will do after the firebreak.
    And then what? We stay in those measures forever because as soon as they are relaxed we're back to where we are now in a few short weeks.
    If we can get cases down to the point where track, trace, isolate can cope, then we can control the epidemic and we won't need more lockdowns.

    In addition - more time gives us chance to improve TTI system, gets us closer to a vaccine and better treatments, AND prevents the inevitable Christmas increase in contacts from being quite so devastating.
    Getting track and trace to work is the new unicorn poo. Two week break to "sort it", is horseshit. The reality is it isn't possible to do this manually. The way the disease is, by the time you have a test, its been 4-5 days of infecting other people, then a day to get the results, then at least another day to start to try and work out who you spent any time with over the past week, and you won't know the people you sat next to on the Tube, its easy to forget your neighbour popped round for a quick chat, who that person who was in the gym getting changed next to you.

    And nobody is suggesting we do much more than change from a central system to a local run by local authorities involving door knocking, which maybe be better at actually contacting some people, but is even slower to go on foot door to door. And evidence so far, the likes of PHE were the worst at trying to organize testing.

    A working test, track and trace system capable of reacting to this required 5 years of development in South Korea, one if not the most technologically advanced nations on earth.
    I don't understand this veering between hubris and defeatism.

    A 3 week break could reduce cases by ~40%.
    At the same time, testing capacity should increase.

    If we look at the past 3 weeks, testing capacity increased by ~40%.
    We need lots of excess capacity to run tests as fast as possible, the fact that most tests aren't turned around in 24 hours is critical.

    Hiring some more people in local public health should also help. We should also put in place better incentives to isolate.

    Will that be enough - I don't know. But it plausibly could be. We should definitely try!

    South Korea may have needed 5 years of development for its system, but we should be able to make much faster progress if we make it our #1 priority and invest accordingly.
    As I just said, more of the same capacity is going to make no difference. Even if we found all 560,000 people who have the virus right now, we live in a country where 440,000 of them won't isolate after being told they are positive, some for valid reasons such as not being able to get supermarket delivery slots, fear of being fired, not being able to afford two weeks off or for illegitimate reasons such as "I feel fine".

    The testing system has a lot of flaws, capacity isn't one of them, in fact we have got probably the best testing capacity out of all European countries, more of it will solve nothing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    alex_ said:

    21,915. Numbers down again (compared to last Saturday). But obviously if the Scientists have their own data...

    Squinting at the various graphs the best it looks is flat, maybe growing a little.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
    Until the 2nd Dec....Boris will spin this action as to save Christmas, and so people will still be planning Christmas getaways, skiing in the spring....they should be telling people, Tier 4 or not, sorry outbound travel for leisure is off the table for 6 months.
    And Christmas is cancelled
    The whole point of this is to get the virus sufficiently suppressed to allow a couple of weeks of easing around Christmas. However I suspect the lockdown will then be swiftly reimposed in January. We are staring at this until spring 2021. Right through the fucking winter.

    Is it OK to drink gin at 4.16pm?
    Yes. Gin is fine at all minutes that are a multiple of 1. Tonic shouldn't be used between the hours of 1am-5am though.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Omnium said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    Who is leaking to Prof Peston I wonder?
    He's pretty much persona-non-grata quite widely. Therefore it's an interesting question, and quite risky for whoever is.

    Why's he 'Prof'? Surely no Uni has given him an honorary professorship?
    Its taking the piss, because so many times he has rocked up and asked this long winded question as if he is an international expert on the subject only for people who know what they are talking about to point out he is talking utter shit / misunderstood the facts e.g. his stuff on chemical engineering.
    His Dad was, of course. Nice chap; spoke concisely as I recall.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    So... On holiday in Cornwall this week. Will we have to come home before Thursday? Or can we stay until Saturday as planned and paid for?

    No, you will need to return by Thursday midnight I beleive
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    So... On holiday in Cornwall this week. Will we have to come home before Thursday? Or can we stay until Saturday as planned and paid for?

    You'll need to get back before the razor wire goes up.
  • LadyG said:

    nichomar said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Mystic Bob, has produced a bingo card for 5.00 pm.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1322562692771696640

    No foreign holidays. Finally.
    Until the 2nd Dec....Boris will spin this action as to save Christmas, and so people will still be planning Christmas getaways, skiing in the spring....they should be telling people, Tier 4 or not, sorry outbound travel for leisure is off the table for 6 months.
    And Christmas is cancelled
    The whole point of this is to get the virus sufficiently suppressed to allow a couple of weeks of easing around Christmas. However I suspect the lockdown will then be swiftly reimposed in January. We are staring at this until spring 2021. Right through the fucking winter.

    Is it OK to drink gin at 4.16pm?
    Yes
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Does anyone else think that, sadly, without closing schools and education generally it is not a lock down? The (Peston) provisions are a national extension of Tier 3 with small additions. I wish I thought it could work, but the millions of daily movements and interactions involved in education generally are a critical factor.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    So... On holiday in Cornwall this week. Will we have to come home before Thursday? Or can we stay until Saturday as planned and paid for?

    Just stay, the only thing is that everything will be shut despite the incidence rate in SW England basically being nothing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    All well and good to say that, but what...We have 500k a day testing capacity, thats plenty. "Improve Track and Trace", how?....what other systems can be put in place in a month?

    Its dead easy to claim better handling, but much harder to come up with plans that a) can be implemented within a few weeks and b) people, especially the media, will accept e.g sending people to gulags to quarantine (as they would phrase it).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    LadyG said:

    So... On holiday in Cornwall this week. Will we have to come home before Thursday? Or can we stay until Saturday as planned and paid for?

    No, you will need to return by Thursday midnight I beleive
    Didn't you just book a foreign holiday?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    LadyG said:

    So... On holiday in Cornwall this week. Will we have to come home before Thursday? Or can we stay until Saturday as planned and paid for?

    No, you will need to return by Thursday midnight I beleive
    Depends what's the law and what's guidance.
This discussion has been closed.