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WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast – politicalbetting.com
WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast – politicalbetting.com
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Edit: FIRST!
"If there is an option to not make a decision, that is the decision management will make"
I'm afraid my Law is rarely broken, and this government has proved it in spades over Covid.
Let's hope we don't go the way of the US with tacky halloween trees in shops and hotels throughout October.
(In light of the proposed lockdown announcement - where can I get a good price on Johnson being removed first half of 2021?)
Eh?
Started at 9am.
1. How well have the SAGE estimates of the growth rate of the epidemic matched up to reality? We now have many weeks of calculations from SAGE of the daily & weekly growth rate. When integrated over time, how do these predictions actually compare against cases reported? I understand the growth in testing makes this a little more difficult, but this is still not a hard calculation to do.
(I am not one of those who think SAGE has done well, but this is more based on overall impression that their pronouncements lack 'scientific' common sense rather than hard analysis).
2. How well have the many model predictions from Ferguson, from King's College, from Washington, and so on, fared when matched with the data. I understand this is a bit harder, as the politicians and policy models respond to the models, so all scenarios are liable to being falsified by events in one way or another. Also, I think the main aim of the models is understanding -- rather than predictions -- but if policy makers use the models to inform policy, then some benchmarking of which models are trustworthy is needed.
Unless there is some attempt to understand which models have performed well (with respect to the past), or whether SAGE has performed well (with respect to the past), then there is no way of evaluating the reliability of their current advice or their predictions.
I also am not one who is interested in the blame game, here. I think it is absolutely inevitable that scientists predicting the behaviour of a still largely unknown disease will make some mistakes.
SAGE are claiming that their worst-case scenario will be exceeded many times over. This proves that either they are useless at scenario planning or that their initial worst-case scenario was deliberately too optimistic. How can we trust them now?
They know that Boris Johnson is not a science graduate, and this goes for nearly all other members of the cabinet. Boris could have studied science or mathematics at Oxford instead of classics, and then he might have been better prepared to serve the government. As it is the members of SAGE can say practically anything they like, and the government cannot contradict them. The government has legal and financial expertise, but it does not have scientific expertise and we are paying a high price for this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54724957
So Pennsylvania, for example, has historically been very restrictive and, while it was liberalised in 2019, it is still something of a faff and people aren't used to absentee voting. Technically, in Pennsylvania, I understand you can hand in a postal or absentee ballot early. You can apply for the ballot on your visit to the county election office, but it's all more time-consuming than voting on election day. Whereas, in other states with higher early voting, it is a lot simpler and pretty much like election day.
In fact, Pennsylvania is a state where early voting has increased most compared with 2016, but from a low base so it's short of the national average on total ballots cast as a percentage of 2016.
Therefore the chart does not necessarily reflect enthusiasm in different states or the extent to which turnout will be up on 2016.
There's a lot on Scottish nationalism and on tactical voting and possible electoral reform.
Focus groups seem much more respectful to one another though.
The major difficulty is that projections are not forecasts, but that distinction is lost on a great number of people. Better work could be done communicating this stuff to the public, but the old maxim about leading a horse to water applies. And worse, there are some who will wilfully misunderstand science in order to discredit someone because of ideological axe-grinding.
In complex human systems, the very act of making a forecast can change the outcome. An exponential graph might scare people into lowering their risk exposure, reducing the spread, nullifying the forecast. Then everybody goes crazy about how the "prediction" was wrong, because they didn't understand the nature of the forecast.
Hancock is surely too weedy to engage in this sort of thing.
Gove has form.
Sunak has motive.
It would be a bit odd (but not totally impossible knowing Cummings) for Johnson to launch an inquiry into his own leak.
An interesting one.
We can see this clearly from Canada's Liberals.
When they were beaten into third place by the NDP in the federal elections, they were suddenly in favour of electoral reform. Now the Liberals are winning federal elections (despite losing the popular vote), so they are not interested any more.
Soon, the Liberals will lose an election, and they will be back in favour of electoral reform again.
The cycle can continue indefinitely.
(I am not myself against electoral reform, but the thought it can ever be introduced is for the birds. The winner of any election -- almost by definition -- thinks the existing electoral system is great).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/31/huge-spider-assumed-extinct-in-britain-discovered-on-mod-site-aoe
Also today Anne Selzer (rated A+) will release her final Iowa poll. Her last poll was tied. Trump won by 9 points in 2016.
https://tinyurl.com/y475yuxp
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1322471602680987653
There is quite difference between groups' projections, though I can't easily work out the pale ranges above and below the tracked lines.
Edit: On the oither hand, here's a counterexample for your final adage. That is that the SNP is in favour of electoral reform for Westminster. Have been for a long time and still are.
For example, journalist has educated guess what meeting was about and asks X when the lockdown will start. X is so annoyed/surprised that their words/body language gives the game away, even if they deny/no comment. Journalist now 95% sure, makes a few assumptions, asks the rest of the attendees, and before you know it, there's a story.
I do think that the concept of "credible interval" needs serious re-consideration, and this goes to your point about benchmarking of models. We must remember, of course, that epidemiologists are not actually proper mathematicians and therefore give them a bit of a break...
(I do think that SAGE has done okay -- based only on my impression -- since they seemed to get the order of magnitude of the predictions about right. They haven't done well in convincing the government to take timely action for the 2nd wave, but I think this is partly due to motivated reasoners muddying the waters. *Their* culpability will probably never be accounted for.)
--AS
The crosstabs don't overly help them however, some trying to show 30% of Dems voting for trump and 25% Blacks also voting Trump etc.... Still maybe they have tapped into something no-one else at all has seen, though I suspect not.
Actual numbers were 91.8K and 101.4K.
To be honest it wasn't difficult because the trend for Thurs and Fri was pretty consistent.
Sat figure is usually quite high but always below Thurs and Fri. It is also less consistent sometimes being close to Fri figure, sometimes considerably less and obviously subsequent days will be down before the election being Sun - Tues.
It will be interesting to see what Sat will be and how newsworthy the huge Thur and Fri jumps are and the breaking of the 100K with Trump still claiming it is getting better.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1322480417623126018
The economic and social collapse that these calamitous policy decisions are heading us towards.
In the end, we cannot afford another lockdown. We could not afford the first one. Hence,this lock down will be without furlough. We can only imagine how much that is going to hammer this country and its people.
The conservatives are heading for complete oblivion. Total. Utter.
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Do_you_think_intelligent_and_lazy_people_qualify_for_highest_leadership_positions
https://twitter.com/alistairhann/status/1322470096745488387?s=19
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1322473252950855681?s=19
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first.
2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not.
3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat.
4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared.
5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
Do you not think he might need to tell a few people in the Treasury...?
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/523680-the-memo-trump-retains-narrow-path-to-victory
Strictly's on tonight, though.
The government has had enough time to resolve these issues and honestly, I don't give a fuck about how European countries have also failed. We shouldn't be aiming to be just as bad as everyone else.
However, most of them want to go on a holiday, meet friends at the pub, family party etc.
So it's Lockdown Supermax II - apart from "I need to do what I want"
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/10/imola-pre-qualifying-2020.html