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WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast – politicalbetting.com

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    isam said:
    Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Mal557 said:

    HYUFD said:

    56% of Tory members want Trump to win the US presidential election, 22.5% want Biden to win according to a new ConHome survey

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/10/our-survey-more-than-half-of-tory-members-want-trump-to-win-next-week.html

    Good job its not them voting for him then :)
    Exactly, they did enough damage foisting the hapless Boris on the nation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Am I right in thinking that support bubbles will go? Being able to see my girlfriend is the only thing that has been keeping me sane. :s

    Can you move in with her for the month?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    MaxPB said:

    LadyG said:

    I take this guy's point - he's quite cogent - however if lockdowns are so utterly useless and damaging, why are they being enforced by: Germany, France, Holland, Belgium, Spain, Australia, Czechia, Iran, and previously in China, Singapore, etc?
    Lockdowns are useful in buying time to organise. We have proven we can't or won't do that so there's no point. Asian countries used them to buy time, we're using the to stop infections.
    Unless the aim is to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, and 1,000s more dying, lockdowns will raise total deaths.

    F*** knows why most countries reversed the past 100 years of public health policy. This policy was to a) allow the healthy to live normal lives and b) isolate the sick.

    People like me are just asking for a reversion to this approach. Similarly those who signed the Great Barrington Declaration.
    Unfortunately "allowing the healthy to live normal lives" would result in half a million deaths or so.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    LadyG said:

    A tragic advert on Sky, during the rugby half time, for all your lovely local businesses: restaurants, pubs, quirky shops.

    And all about to close down for many weeks, perhaps forever

    Had that for 6 weeks mate. Worked. Flattened out Infections. And then we get this.
    The NE is on a precipice.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    I have received many kind messages in the last few days and I have decided to return. I will be posting in a reduced manner for the foreseeable future.

    Great that you're back. Don't hold back, either.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2020

    "no choice" on national extreme lockdown says rent-a-zero-covid-zealot from Scotland.

    Of course there's a choice. That's what the Cabinet are supposed to decide.

    If the government had followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar in the summer we would not be in this mess.
    What?

    Surely the Scottish Govt have followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar.

    Sridhar was behind the zero COVID policy, which Sturgeon announced and said was on the brink of being achieved by the end of the Summer. It has not been conspicuously successful.

    Zero COVID has not happened in Scotland or anywhere else (other than very dramatically different cultures with much more draconian implementation strategies).
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    RobD said:

    isam said:
    Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
    because for some people, discrediting science is more important than improving it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.

    As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    isam said:
    Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
    For reasons that escape reason the Whitey and Vallance graph used reporting day rather than specimen day in their September presentation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825

    Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.

    As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.

    Isn't the whole point of SAGE to provide advice to the government after it has gone through those processes? Otherwise you'd need two advisory bodies for everything, as a check on the first.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.

    As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.

    The data and the modelling codes should be placed on github.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    rkrkrk said:



    BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?

    Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
    And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
    Yes BigG. Boris' circuit breaker has the makings of a world beating circuit breaker. It is almost twice as long as Starmer/Drakeford's hopeless 17 day fire break, so it must be almost twice as good.

    And another thing, Boris didn't fall into the foolish trap of closing non-essential shopping isles in supermarkets. Boris is damn good!
  • NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    kyf_100 said:

    Am I right in thinking that support bubbles will go? Being able to see my girlfriend is the only thing that has been keeping me sane. :s

    I can get behind mask wearing and two metre distancing and even the pubs closing. But I'm genuinely struggling to understand why anyone would obey diktats like these during lockdown 2.
    Agree. I'm looking forward to my next chess game with my mother (whom I don't live with before anyone assumes... :smile: ).

    The key thing will be to look at the law vs the guidelines.

    Anyone paying twenty quid to watch Chisora Usyk tonight? I'll do it on YouTube tomorrow morning.

  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    JACK_W said:

    National - Angus Reid Institute - Rated B+ - 2231 LV - 23/28 Oct

    Biden 53 .. Trump 48

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.29_USVote-2020.pdf

    Typo, Jack. It's 53/45.
    I'm pretty much ignoring the national votes now, the 6-8% isnt moving (other than Rasmussen). It is pretty clear Biden is going to win the popular vote by quite a bit more than Clinton did. The worry for me has always been that he is getting higher vote share in red states, like Texas, Ohio and others. The state polls clearly show this. Trump is clearly less popular there than 4 years ago.
    HOWEVER despite the logic that this trend should be the same in the swing states, there is still this slim possibility that Trump will hold enough swing states to fall over the line, The fact he is 10% down in red states, more in some than 2016 yet in FL and some other swing states he is close to where he was 4 years ago.
    Maybe I'm wrong but this is my fear that Bidens lead is mostly based on states that dont matter.
  • rkrkrk said:



    BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?

    Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
    And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
    Yes BigG. Boris' circuit breaker has the makings of a world beating circuit breaker. It is almost twice as long as Starmer/Drakeford's hopeless 17 day fire break, so it must be almost twice as good.

    And another thing, Boris didn't fall into the foolish trap of closing non-essential shopping isles in supermarkets. Boris is damn good!
    Now then, you are going a bit far there !!!!!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    RobD said:

    Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.

    As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.

    Isn't the whole point of SAGE to provide advice to the government after it has gone through those processes? Otherwise you'd need two advisory bodies for everything, as a check on the first.
    From what we know there isn't a secondary data team working to different parameters. The old model which we've discussed at length on here is the only game in town for government policy making. From friends in the industry I've heard that big tech is much better at it than the government and some have even offered their expertise but they've been rebuffed just as our industry association was. If I wanted to build a real world mathematical model that handles population behaviour I'd go to big tech, not academia.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    JACK_W said:

    National - Angus Reid Institute - Rated B+ - 2231 LV - 23/28 Oct

    Biden 53 .. Trump 48

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.29_USVote-2020.pdf

    Typo, Jack. It's 53/45.
    That 58/41 split for Biden among women is a nightmare for Trump
  • RobD said:

    isam said:
    Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
    Because we're continually being told that things are going worse than worse case scenarios.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Am I right in thinking that support bubbles will go? Being able to see my girlfriend is the only thing that has been keeping me sane. :s

    guaranteed unless you are one household
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    malcolmg said:

    Am I right in thinking that support bubbles will go? Being able to see my girlfriend is the only thing that has been keeping me sane. :s

    guaranteed unless you are one household
    I assume support bubbles will stay.

    But i note that BBC are also reporting that it will be legal to have sex in the park.

    Edit: Sorry "meet one other person outside".
  • @Mal557

    It would be virtually impossible for Trump (or anybody) to lose the National Vote by 6 points and win on the ECV. The system might be a bad one, but it isn't completely wrecked.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    "no choice" on national extreme lockdown says rent-a-zero-covid-zealot from Scotland.

    Of course there's a choice. That's what the Cabinet are supposed to decide.

    If the government had followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar in the summer we would not be in this mess.
    What?

    Surely the Scottish Govt have followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar.

    Sridhar was behind the zero COVID policy, which Sturgeon announced and said was on the brink of being achieved by the end of the Summer. It has not been conspicuously successful.

    Zero COVID has not happened in Scotland or anywhere else (other than very dramatically different cultures with much more draconian implementation strategies).
    All those bloody English tourists and students.
  • TimT said:

    JACK_W said:

    National - Angus Reid Institute - Rated B+ - 2231 LV - 23/28 Oct

    Biden 53 .. Trump 48

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.29_USVote-2020.pdf

    Typo, Jack. It's 53/45.
    That 58/41 split for Biden among women is a nightmare for Trump
    Whatever can have caused it?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456

    TimT said:

    JACK_W said:

    National - Angus Reid Institute - Rated B+ - 2231 LV - 23/28 Oct

    Biden 53 .. Trump 48

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/2020.10.29_USVote-2020.pdf

    Typo, Jack. It's 53/45.
    That 58/41 split for Biden among women is a nightmare for Trump
    Whatever can have caused it?
    As a man, I can't tell. Perhaps I should ask my wife ;)
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited October 2020
    These slides are a gift to Labour - and they show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.

    Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.

    I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.

    I am sorry to say my friends, I was right.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    There you go, using the NHS as a protective shield for incompetence.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    edited October 2020
    Of the states I am tracking, North Carolina is currently winning the % of RV who have already voted.

    Below are the % of RV turnout for the top few, and the votes remaining to be cast for them to reach 2016 RV turnout % levels:

    NC 59.45% 2,268,764.28 (90.49%)
    FL 58.97% 4,268,874.21 (89.32%)
    TX 57.03% 4,252,097.05 (82.11%)
    GA 55.42% 2,196,670.27 (86.79%)
    AZ 53.79% 1,466,563.52 (88.04%)
    WI 51.71% 1,455,736.45 (92.33%)
    NV 50.18% 729,479.35 (87.16%)

    * amended to add % RV turnout in 2016 using US Census Bureau numbers
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited October 2020

    rkrkrk said:



    BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?

    Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
    And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
    Starmer called for a circuit breaker of 2 to 3 weeks on 13 October. If HMG had followed the scientists' advice then, maybe 2-3 weeks would have been long enough.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    TimT said:

    Of the states I am tracking, North Carolina is currently winning the % of RV who have already voted.

    Below are the % of RV turnout for the top few, and the votes remaining to be cast for them to reach 2016 RV turnout % levels:

    NC 59.45% 2,268,764.28 (90.49%)
    FL 58.97% 4,268,874.21 (89.32%)
    TX 57.03% 4,252,097.05 (82.11%)
    GA 55.42% 2,196,670.27 (86.79%)
    AZ 53.79% 1,466,563.52 (88.04%)
    WI 51.71% 1,455,736.45 (92.33%)
    NV 50.18% 729,479.35 (87.16%)

    * amended to add % RV turnout in 2016 using US Census Bureau numbers

    Votes to 2dp? :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,457
    edited October 2020
    No mention of bans on outgoing or incoming travel. If you take that announcement as the rules, Christmas trips away for a spot of skiing or warmer climates are still on.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    These slides are a gift to Labour - and they show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.

    Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.

    I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.

    I am sorry to say my friends, I was right.

    You're back! I thought you might have taken off because of the treatment of Jeremy. You missed being first to post the 'sleazy Tories on the slide poll'
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    nichomar said:

    Second let’s talk about something other than covid, there are no solutions.

    There are hundreds, probably thousands of good solutions. At present, most of us just can't see them.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757

    rkrkrk said:



    BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?

    Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
    And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
    Starmer called for a circuit breaker of 2 to 3 weeks on 13 October. If HMG had followed the scientists' advice then, maybe 2-3 weeks would have been long enough.
    Enough for what?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    rkrkrk said:



    BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?

    Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
    And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
    Starmer called for a circuit breaker of 2 to 3 weeks on 13 October. If HMG had followed the scientists' advice then, maybe 2-3 weeks would have been long enough.
    If SKS knows what to do, then maybe he could fix Mark from Wales up with some top scientific advice. 😁
This discussion has been closed.