Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
It's comprehensible if you see the world through Ferguson's influenza model.
I take this guy's point - he's quite cogent - however if lockdowns are so utterly useless and damaging, why are they being enforced by: Germany, France, Holland, Belgium, Spain, Australia, Czechia, Iran, and previously in China, Singapore, etc?
Lockdowns are useful in buying time to organise. We have proven we can't or won't do that so there's no point. Asian countries used them to buy time, we're using the to stop infections.
Unless the aim is to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, and 1,000s more dying, lockdowns will raise total deaths.
F*** knows why most countries reversed the past 100 years of public health policy. This policy was to a) allow the healthy to live normal lives and b) isolate the sick.
People like me are just asking for a reversion to this approach. Similarly those who signed the Great Barrington Declaration.
Unfortunately "allowing the healthy to live normal lives" would result in half a million deaths or so.
I have received many kind messages in the last few days and I have decided to return. I will be posting in a reduced manner for the foreseeable future.
"no choice" on national extreme lockdown says rent-a-zero-covid-zealot from Scotland.
Of course there's a choice. That's what the Cabinet are supposed to decide.
If the government had followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar in the summer we would not be in this mess.
What?
Surely the Scottish Govt have followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar.
Sridhar was behind the zero COVID policy, which Sturgeon announced and said was on the brink of being achieved by the end of the Summer. It has not been conspicuously successful.
Zero COVID has not happened in Scotland or anywhere else (other than very dramatically different cultures with much more draconian implementation strategies).
Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
because for some people, discrediting science is more important than improving it.
Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.
As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.
Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
For reasons that escape reason the Whitey and Vallance graph used reporting day rather than specimen day in their September presentation.
Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.
As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.
Isn't the whole point of SAGE to provide advice to the government after it has gone through those processes? Otherwise you'd need two advisory bodies for everything, as a check on the first.
Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.
As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.
The data and the modelling codes should be placed on github.
BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?
Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
Yes BigG. Boris' circuit breaker has the makings of a world beating circuit breaker. It is almost twice as long as Starmer/Drakeford's hopeless 17 day fire break, so it must be almost twice as good.
And another thing, Boris didn't fall into the foolish trap of closing non-essential shopping isles in supermarkets. Boris is damn good!
Am I right in thinking that support bubbles will go? Being able to see my girlfriend is the only thing that has been keeping me sane.
I can get behind mask wearing and two metre distancing and even the pubs closing. But I'm genuinely struggling to understand why anyone would obey diktats like these during lockdown 2.
Agree. I'm looking forward to my next chess game with my mother (whom I don't live with before anyone assumes... ).
The key thing will be to look at the law vs the guidelines.
Anyone paying twenty quid to watch Chisora Usyk tonight? I'll do it on YouTube tomorrow morning.
I'm pretty much ignoring the national votes now, the 6-8% isnt moving (other than Rasmussen). It is pretty clear Biden is going to win the popular vote by quite a bit more than Clinton did. The worry for me has always been that he is getting higher vote share in red states, like Texas, Ohio and others. The state polls clearly show this. Trump is clearly less popular there than 4 years ago. HOWEVER despite the logic that this trend should be the same in the swing states, there is still this slim possibility that Trump will hold enough swing states to fall over the line, The fact he is 10% down in red states, more in some than 2016 yet in FL and some other swing states he is close to where he was 4 years ago. Maybe I'm wrong but this is my fear that Bidens lead is mostly based on states that dont matter.
BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?
Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
Yes BigG. Boris' circuit breaker has the makings of a world beating circuit breaker. It is almost twice as long as Starmer/Drakeford's hopeless 17 day fire break, so it must be almost twice as good.
And another thing, Boris didn't fall into the foolish trap of closing non-essential shopping isles in supermarkets. Boris is damn good!
Just read the Spectator article from Fraser Nelson about the "reasonable" worst case SAGE prediction which is driving all this.
As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.
Isn't the whole point of SAGE to provide advice to the government after it has gone through those processes? Otherwise you'd need two advisory bodies for everything, as a check on the first.
From what we know there isn't a secondary data team working to different parameters. The old model which we've discussed at length on here is the only game in town for government policy making. From friends in the industry I've heard that big tech is much better at it than the government and some have even offered their expertise but they've been rebuffed just as our industry association was. If I wanted to build a real world mathematical model that handles population behaviour I'd go to big tech, not academia.
Why is that scenario still being compared against today? There have been additional measures introduced since then. Not to mention the fact if you change the doubling rate by a few days you can make it match the actual data.
Because we're continually being told that things are going worse than worse case scenarios.
It would be virtually impossible for Trump (or anybody) to lose the National Vote by 6 points and win on the ECV. The system might be a bad one, but it isn't completely wrecked.
"no choice" on national extreme lockdown says rent-a-zero-covid-zealot from Scotland.
Of course there's a choice. That's what the Cabinet are supposed to decide.
If the government had followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar in the summer we would not be in this mess.
What?
Surely the Scottish Govt have followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar.
Sridhar was behind the zero COVID policy, which Sturgeon announced and said was on the brink of being achieved by the end of the Summer. It has not been conspicuously successful.
Zero COVID has not happened in Scotland or anywhere else (other than very dramatically different cultures with much more draconian implementation strategies).
These slides are a gift to Labour - and they show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?
Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
Starmer called for a circuit breaker of 2 to 3 weeks on 13 October. If HMG had followed the scientists' advice then, maybe 2-3 weeks would have been long enough.
No mention of bans on outgoing or incoming travel. If you take that announcement as the rules, Christmas trips away for a spot of skiing or warmer climates are still on.
These slides are a gift to Labour - and they show the incompetence of the Johnson administration.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
I am sorry to say my friends, I was right.
You're back! I thought you might have taken off because of the treatment of Jeremy. You missed being first to post the 'sleazy Tories on the slide poll'
BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?
Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
Starmer called for a circuit breaker of 2 to 3 weeks on 13 October. If HMG had followed the scientists' advice then, maybe 2-3 weeks would have been long enough.
BTW does everyone on PB agree that Starmer was right and displayed characteristic foresight in calling for the policy the government is now following, albeit too late?
Lol - you've been on here long enough to know better!
And Boris is not following Starmer's 14 day circuit breaker, this is for a full 28 days not advocated by him
Starmer called for a circuit breaker of 2 to 3 weeks on 13 October. If HMG had followed the scientists' advice then, maybe 2-3 weeks would have been long enough.
If SKS knows what to do, then maybe he could fix Mark from Wales up with some top scientific advice. 😁
Comments
The NE is on a precipice.
Surely the Scottish Govt have followed the advice of Prof Devi Sridhar.
Sridhar was behind the zero COVID policy, which Sturgeon announced and said was on the brink of being achieved by the end of the Summer. It has not been conspicuously successful.
Zero COVID has not happened in Scotland or anywhere else (other than very dramatically different cultures with much more draconian implementation strategies).
As he says the most telling thing is there is no Red team working to check against these predictions. No one else at the heart of government is modelling as an alternative to SAGE. Government expects to plan around the reasonable worst case and the only available such case is SAGE and their modelling team.
And another thing, Boris didn't fall into the foolish trap of closing non-essential shopping isles in supermarkets. Boris is damn good!
NEW THREAD
The key thing will be to look at the law vs the guidelines.
Anyone paying twenty quid to watch Chisora Usyk tonight? I'll do it on YouTube tomorrow morning.
HOWEVER despite the logic that this trend should be the same in the swing states, there is still this slim possibility that Trump will hold enough swing states to fall over the line, The fact he is 10% down in red states, more in some than 2016 yet in FL and some other swing states he is close to where he was 4 years ago.
Maybe I'm wrong but this is my fear that Bidens lead is mostly based on states that dont matter.
But i note that BBC are also reporting that it will be legal to have sex in the park.
Edit: Sorry "meet one other person outside".
It would be virtually impossible for Trump (or anybody) to lose the National Vote by 6 points and win on the ECV. The system might be a bad one, but it isn't completely wrecked.
Dither and delay, absolutely. They knew in September that a national lockdown was needed and they sat around and did not act.
I warned in July, that we were headed for disaster. I was laughed off this website, I was called an idiot, that I was wrong and we should just follow Sweden.
I am sorry to say my friends, I was right.
Below are the % of RV turnout for the top few, and the votes remaining to be cast for them to reach 2016 RV turnout % levels:
NC 59.45% 2,268,764.28 (90.49%)
FL 58.97% 4,268,874.21 (89.32%)
TX 57.03% 4,252,097.05 (82.11%)
GA 55.42% 2,196,670.27 (86.79%)
AZ 53.79% 1,466,563.52 (88.04%)
WI 51.71% 1,455,736.45 (92.33%)
NV 50.18% 729,479.35 (87.16%)
* amended to add % RV turnout in 2016 using US Census Bureau numbers