Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
Was it Imperial College who claimed that infections were doubling in London every 3.3 days with an R of 2.86.
For that to happen mask wearing and home working must have stopped plus Arsenal and Spurs playing to full crowds.
Yes, the REACT 1 study, but with Confidence Intervals of 1.47 to 4.87, so may just be doubling every 7 days or so.
But its not been doing that either.
And, as usual, its the more extreme possibility which gets the headlines.
I have this funny feeling we are going to get a non-announcement. Cases not looking good, we urge people to stick to the rules, we are looking to take further action, we will announce detailed plan next week.
I have this funny feeling we are going to get a non-announcement. Cases not looking good, we urge people to stick to the rules, we are looking to take further action, we will announce detailed plan next week.
We can only dream that BoZo is as competent as Hugh Abbott...
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as bad at ignoring rules, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
I have this funny feeling we are going to get a non-announcement. Cases not looking good, we urge people to stick to the rules, we are looking to take further action, we will announce detailed plan next week.
We can only dream that BoZo is as competent as Hugh Abbott...
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Calling a short notice press conference at 4pm on Saturday smacks a bit of panic. I suspect that today's data on cases or deaths, or more likely both, is awful and has pushed them into thinking that they can't wait till Monday.
Calling a short notice press conference at 4pm on Saturday smacks a bit of panic. I suspect that today's data on cases or deaths, or more likely both, is awful and has pushed them into thinking that they can't wait till Monday.
I'm looking at a betvictor market. Trump EV total. 200-249. 4/1.
The minimum I think Biden is likely to get is 2016 plus Az, Mi, Wi and Pa. Which rather neatly takes Trump down to 249, just in the target window.
The next two most likely to fall, according to the betting at least I think, are SC and Fl. If Biden takes both of these Trump is down to 205 but we're still in the money. Any more then we're sunk but i think Dems are 11/8 and bigger for those.
My gut feeling is 4/1 is value but plenty of other permutations could see it win or lose so hard to be sure.
Also, Betvictor's o/u handicap line is Trump +81.5 which falls almost exactly in the middle of the band.
He’d be mad to, and he isn’t mad. At the moment, he can put forward proposals knowing that if he’s proved right everyone will be awed by his prescience and if he’s wrong everyone will be worrying about something else. Win/win.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
Yes. A great time to be in opposition.
In the RoI, Sinn Fein have hit the jackpot -- with all 3 parties (Greens, FF and FG) tarred with the problems of governing.
I know it's early and could be honeymoon period polling (although how this happens in a pandemic is beyond me), but Ireland seems to have bucked the trend of the junior partner always getting the flak. FG are well up on their GE performance and FF have nosedived, despite having the most seats and the Taoiseach. SF seem steady.
Well, the Greens are the smaller partner, and there's a steady erosion of elected representatives leaving the Green Party, so it looks like they will suffer at the next election. FF and FG were even enough to be taking turns being Taoiseach, and at the moment it looks like it was a smart move from Varadker to let Martin go first and be in charge for the second wave.
I would have thought that Varadker would suffer from going after the Chief Medical Officer, but I think the comparison with Martin is helping him. Martin is apparently well known as a ditherer from his previous time in government as a minister, and it is being shown again now.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Yes, I’ve been struck when I’ve been out seeing people of all ages meeting up and hugging each other. I think the problem was 1) (as noted below) the messaging over the summer that things were getting back to normal; and 2) the Cummins episode told people that it doesn’t really matter if you break the rules.
A very considerable number of people in America believe that if everyone wore a mask & distancing was enforced, the virus would rapidly die out, without lockdowns.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Yes, I’ve been struck when I’ve been out seeing people of all ages meeting up and hugging each other. I think the problem was 1) (as noted below) the messaging over the summer that things were getting back to normal; and 2) the Cummins episode told people that it doesn’t really matter if you break the rules.
There is definitely a weird belief that if you are outside you are safe to act normally.
Calling a short notice press conference at 4pm on Saturday smacks a bit of panic. I suspect that today's data on cases or deaths, or more likely both, is awful and has pushed them into thinking that they can't wait till Monday.
Isn't it more the case that someone (I suspect from Sunak's side of the wall in Downing Street) leaked, and Johnson cannot afford damaging speculation over the weekend and a spooked financial market on Monday. That's what I suspect has forced Downing Street's hand.
If it is Sunak, that's a dangerous game. He must feel very secure given his stock is high in the Conservative Party just now... but stocks can go down as well as up.
More good polls for Biden today. He's looking very solid. In fact, not much has shifted throughout the campaign.
It's entirely possible that the US may hit the psychologically horrible figure of 100,000 coronavirus cases a day by Tuesday - it's up to 94,000 today.
I'm more confident on Florida than I am on Texas. As for PA, that's in the bag for Biden. Not even GOP shenanigans trying to discount postal ballots will help Trump and, by then, anyway I expect it to all be over. Biden will cross 270 before PA is required.
Calling a short notice press conference at 4pm on Saturday smacks a bit of panic. I suspect that today's data on cases or deaths, or more likely both, is awful and has pushed them into thinking that they can't wait till Monday.
Isn't it more the case that someone (I suspect from Sunak's side of the wall in Downing Street) leaked, and Johnson cannot afford damaging speculation over the weekend and a spooked financial market on Monday. That's what I suspect has forced Downing Street's hand.
If it is Sunak, that's a dangerous game. He must feel very secure given his stock is high in the Conservative Party just now... but stocks can go down as well as up.
I guess it comes down to which of Johnson or Sunak you think is the biggest blundering idiot ever to have graced Downing Street. I know who my money is on.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Yes, I’ve been struck when I’ve been out seeing people of all ages meeting up and hugging each other. I think the problem was 1) (as noted below) the messaging over the summer that things were getting back to normal; and 2) the Cummins episode told people that it doesn’t really matter if you break the rules.
There is definitely a weird belief that if you are outside you are safe to act normally.
Indeed.
But not in Asia where they comprehend that a respiratory virus can still spread outdoors.
People in this country are unbelievably ignorant [god I had to restrain how I put that] when it comes to this virus. Sorry. No other way to put it.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
What it is presumably meant to solve is a crisis in the NHS once again as the number of hospitalisations increases sharply and wards get close to capacity. For me, this is something that lockdowns are justified for, as an emergency break when we are being overwhelmed. Looking at the charts from yesterday that must be imminent.
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
The government has had months to solve the actual problem of people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. It has done nothing to solve it and believes the only way to prevent that is with a lockdown, either local or national. The government has had months to build a testing and tracking system that can seek out the virus, yet we're still waiting for people to become symptomatic and book a test. We're still allowing people to self certify their isolation and quarantine.
The government has had enough time to resolve these issues and honestly, I don't give a fuck about how European countries have also failed. We shouldn't be aiming to be just as bad as everyone else.
I think that you are being a bit ridiculous. The government threw billions at a track and trace system for the reasons you described. It doesn't work. It doesn't work for a variety of reasons. Off the top of my head these include our reluctance to allow ourselves to be adequately traced, the very bad advice the government got from the scientists about the need for testing to be pretty much 100% accurate before it was any good, the complexity and uncertainty of what is needed for infection to occur (is sitting on a bus for 10 mins enough, sitting 2 tables away in a cafe, etc etc), an increasing disregard for the rules with far more house parties and groupings than in the first wave which are far more likely to be indoors as the weather has changed, I could go on all day.
Your criticism seems to imply that there is an easy or even difficult solution here that the government is wilfully ignoring. There isn't. There just isn't. So we need to muddle along as well as we can and pray for a vaccine. In that muddle many of the short term tactical decisions can be criticised, too late, too early, to severe, not severe enough but the reality is that we cannot operate as a society with this virus in our community anywhere like we did before without huge numbers of deaths and a complete crisis in the NHS. That is where we are and swearing at the government really doesn't change a thing.
Biggest reason it did not work David is the Tory graft and chicanery of giving it all to their thick greedy grasping chums. The only thing they managed to do well was line their own pockets to a great amount. A worse bunch of crooks have yet to be seen, they make the Mafia look like amateurs.
Its playing to a large group of Americans who believe that masks & a bit of distancing will stop COVID. Plus some honesty in reporting/The White House. Closing down the economy not required.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Slightly different calculation for OAPs. Certainly their risk of dying is higher if they get COVID. But they also have fewer years left anyway. There are some older people who simply think it isn't worth cowering inside for a year in order to enhance their chances of eeking out another five years in the late autumn of their life.
There are also older people who are very set in their ways. The only people who've tried to shake my hand since March have been pensioners and I'm fairly sure that's been forgetfulness/habit of a lifetime rather than simply being cavalier.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Maybe you feel you've had your three score years and ten and prefer to take the risk and enjoy life, rather than spend a year or two locked in. Once you reach a certain age you presumably accept you could pop your clogs at any time.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Dominic Cummings, addressing staff gathered in “mission control” on Tuesday morning, was blunt about the motivation behind Downing Street’s new outpost in the heart of the Cabinet Office.
The response to the Covid-19 crisis had too often been a “shitshow”, he said. This new unit would try to put an end to any “miscommunication” between the political and administrative arms of government.
I don’t know what’s weirdest about Cummings - his bizarre imagination, his total inability to understand anything more complex than how much a ten pound note is worth or his utter lack of self awareness.
The weirdest thing about Dominic Cummings is whether or not he wears glasses. Even cartoonists are divided on this crucial point.
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
A very considerable number of people in America believe that if everyone wore a mask & distancing was enforced, the virus would rapidly die out, without lockdowns.
Isn't that what Europe has mostly been doing in the last few months?
It really doesn't make any difference, though. If we ignore the Sweden bores, and discount the US because Trump, and a handful of inscrutable nations waaay East of Suez of which we know little, that leaves close on 200 governments earnestly wondering whether rigid straight lines, or more informal clusters, are the way to go deckchair-wise. To look no further, the failure of Drakeford and Sturgeon to outperform gives Johnson a fig leaf the size of a cricket square.
Pray tell how Sturgeon has failed, mistakes early on , far from perfect but doing a good job and Stellar results compared to England.
Calling a short notice press conference at 4pm on Saturday smacks a bit of panic. I suspect that today's data on cases or deaths, or more likely both, is awful and has pushed them into thinking that they can't wait till Monday.
Isn't it more the case that someone (I suspect from Sunak's side of the wall in Downing Street) leaked, and Johnson cannot afford damaging speculation over the weekend and a spooked financial market on Monday. That's what I suspect has forced Downing Street's hand.
If it is Sunak, that's a dangerous game. He must feel very secure given his stock is high in the Conservative Party just now... but stocks can go down as well as up.
There are the panic merchants ... apparently led by Imperial, No. 10 and the BBC ... and there are the others
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
Thing is. He can get away with it. Why? Because most of the USA hasn't really properly tried to suppress the virus. So, that it is a trade off is not immediately apparent.
Calling a short notice press conference at 4pm on Saturday smacks a bit of panic. I suspect that today's data on cases or deaths, or more likely both, is awful and has pushed them into thinking that they can't wait till Monday.
Isn't it more the case that someone (I suspect from Sunak's side of the wall in Downing Street) leaked, and Johnson cannot afford damaging speculation over the weekend and a spooked financial market on Monday. That's what I suspect has forced Downing Street's hand.
If it is Sunak, that's a dangerous game. He must feel very secure given his stock is high in the Conservative Party just now... but stocks can go down as well as up.
I guess it comes down to which of Johnson or Sunak you think is the biggest blundering idiot ever to have graced Downing Street. I know who my money is on.
I agree it could be Johnson, but there's a clear motive for Sunak as his Treasury have been particularly strongly opposed to a further lockdown for economic reasons, and this may well have been the best way to force Johnson's hand if, as seems likely, his plan was to present as a fait accompli on Monday. This way, the media and Tory MPs may scare him off it before it's too late (from Sunak's perspective).
The others who knew appear to be Hancock (too weedy and no particular motive), and Gove (has form but motive unclear).
A very considerable number of people in America believe that if everyone wore a mask & distancing was enforced, the virus would rapidly die out, without lockdowns.
I'd me happier voting for someone who says 'Im going to shut down the virus' as opposed to ' We have beaten the Virus already' 100.000 cases geez.
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
What makes it populist is that he is posing as the man with a simple solution that will avoid the need to address those trade odds, and the implied denigration of experts who think otherwise.
Is Scotland performing better than England? It would be reassuring to me if it were, as I will soon be returning to Scotland after eight months in Ireland.
Deaths seem like the most reliable measure, as case numbers will depend on testing rates. Taking the seven day period centred on 23rd October, we get these figures.
Scotland - 116 deaths - 2.1 deaths per 100k England - 1220 deaths - 2.2 deaths per 100k
The Scottish figure is certainly lower than the English figure, but not by enough to signify any practical difference. For the sake of completeness, these are the figures for Northern Ireland and Wales
Wales - 89 deaths - 2.8 deaths per 100k Northern Ireland - 43 deaths - 2.3 deaths per 100k
It is, perhaps, not surprising that Drakeford imposed his "firebreak" before the rest of the UK.
Not sure where you get your numbers but if I look at yesterday , the best region in England had as many cases as whole of Scotland, rate overall was about 18 times that of Scotland and deaths over 9 times. Unless you are going to Lanarkshire you will be miles safer in Scotland.
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
Thing is. He can get away with it. Why? Because most of the USA hasn't really properly tried to suppress the virus. So, that it is a trade off is not immediately apparent.
I will generally forgive a bit of glibness on Twitter as the form doesn't lend itself to nuanced debate.
And I'll concede that evidence-based policy making, consistency, and leading by example are in themselves relatively low cost ideas that haven't really been deployed at all by the White House over the past four years.
I'm looking at a betvictor market. Trump EV total. 200-249. 4/1.
The minimum I think Biden is likely to get is 2016 plus Az, Mi, Wi and Pa. Which rather neatly takes Trump down to 249, just in the target window.
The next two most likely to fall, according to the betting at least I think, are SC and Fl. If Biden takes both of these Trump is down to 205 but we're still in the money. Any more then we're sunk but i think Dems are 11/8 and bigger for those.
My gut feeling is 4/1 is value but plenty of other permutations could see it win or lose so hard to be sure.
Also, Betvictor's o/u handicap line is Trump +81.5 which falls almost exactly in the middle of the band.
I think you may have meant NC and FL, not SC, despite how well Bidens doing nationally he has no chance in SC, NC is certainly a swing state similar to FL. I actually think he has more chance in NC than FL so the 4/1 with the 4 you listed plus SC sounds a fair bet
A very considerable number of people in America believe that if everyone wore a mask & distancing was enforced, the virus would rapidly die out, without lockdowns.
Isn't that what Europe has mostly been doing in the last few months?
Yes - but, remember, in America you've had Donald Fucking Trump sneering at masks and recommending bleach.
Just wearing masks and staying 2m apart seems doable, sensible and 1000x better.
When you add in the economic precariousness for people - lose your job *and* your healthcare - well, nearly no one wants lockdowns.
Slightly different calculation for OAPs. Certainly their risk of dying is higher if they get COVID. But they also have fewer years left anyway. There are some older people who simply think it isn't worth cowering inside for a year in order to enhance their chances of eeking out another five years in the late autumn of their life.
There are also older people who are very set in their ways. The only people who've tried to shake my hand since March have been pensioners and I'm fairly sure that's been forgetfulness/habit of a lifetime rather than simply being cavalier.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
In my experience plenty of older folk who are most definitely at risk are just as badat ignoring things, and it is only a significant minority of youngsters acting like covidiots.
There's no shortage of oldies who seem to be on a suicide mission.
Maybe you feel you've had your three score years and ten and prefer to take the risk and enjoy life, rather than spend a year or two locked in. Once you reach a certain age you presumably accept you could pop your clogs at any time.
Fair enough.
But we cannot trash the economy and the future of the young in order to minimise the risks of said oldies dying.
I'm looking at a betvictor market. Trump EV total. 200-249. 4/1.
The minimum I think Biden is likely to get is 2016 plus Az, Mi, Wi and Pa. Which rather neatly takes Trump down to 249, just in the target window.
The next two most likely to fall, according to the betting at least I think, are SC and Fl. If Biden takes both of these Trump is down to 205 but we're still in the money. Any more then we're sunk but i think Dems are 11/8 and bigger for those.
My gut feeling is 4/1 is value but plenty of other permutations could see it win or lose so hard to be sure.
Also, Betvictor's o/u handicap line is Trump +81.5 which falls almost exactly in the middle of the band.
I think you may have meant NC and FL, not SC, despite how well Bidens doing nationally he has no chance in SC, NC is certainly a swing state similar to FL. I actually think he has more chance in NC than FL so the 4/1 with the 4 you listed plus SC sounds a fair bet
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
We all know what "lockdown 2" is going to solve, just as we all knew what a circuit-breaker would have solved. Implying that it's hard to understand sounds a bit like the blinkered Tories on here who were pretending that circuit-breakers were a bad idea because they weren't a permanent solution, when the real reason they objected to the idea was because Starmer supported it.
The government has certainly made plenty of mistakes, some of which are understandable because of the scale of the crisis, but others which a competent government would not have made. However, we are where we are and if they introduce much tougher measures than are currently in place, they are doing the right thing.
That said, I do hope they finally recognise that enabling people to plan ahead on this (e.g. 4 week lockdown now; expect another one on Nth January) will do far less harm than unpredictably bouncing in and out of lockdown, or near-lockdown.
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
Isn't it populist in the sense of "Quote me happy, not realistic" politics?
Gwynne Shotwell: "... it’s quite possible that we could leverage Starship to go to some of these dead rocket bodies — other people’s rocket’s, of course — basically pick up some of this junk in outer space.”
An instructional video of the proposed system is available here -
Has anyone picked up when the lockdown is likely to begin? Assuming that's the announcement at 4pm.
'As early as next week' is vague. Monday? Tuesday? etc.
With these halfwits it could be anywhere between now and Christmas. Depends how long it takes them to work out how they and their pals can profit from a shutdown.
A very considerable number of people in America believe that if everyone wore a mask & distancing was enforced, the virus would rapidly die out, without lockdowns.
I'd me happier voting for someone who says 'Im going to shut down the virus' as opposed to ' We have beaten the Virus already' 100.000 cases geez.
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
What makes it populist is that he is posing as the man with a simple solution that will avoid the need to address those trade odds, and the implied denigration of experts who think otherwise.
It's basically a semantic debate and if that's your definition of populism then fine - I don't own the word.
But I don't really agree that's what populism is normally meant as being in political discussion, which is framing the debate up as People vs Elites.
What Biden is actually doing there is trying to defuse Trump's own populist rhetoric on the subject, which posits that Biden will side with Elitist pointy heads and shut down the People's freedoms/lose them their jobs. It may be doing so in a way that glosses over the difficulty of "shutting down the virus" without some of that problem (i.e. Trump massively exaggerates but there is a kernel of truth in his point). But it isn't "populist" in itself.
A very considerable number of people in America believe that if everyone wore a mask & distancing was enforced, the virus would rapidly die out, without lockdowns.
I'd me happier voting for someone who says 'Im going to shut down the virus' as opposed to ' We have beaten the Virus already' 100.000 cases geez.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
We all know what "lockdown 2" is going to solve, just as we all knew what a circuit-breaker would have solved. Implying that it's hard to understand sounds a bit like the blinkered Tories on here who were pretending that circuit-breakers were a bad idea because they weren't a permanent solution, when the real reason they objected to the idea was because Starmer supported it.
The government has certainly made plenty of mistakes, some of which are understandable because of the scale of the crisis, but others which a competent government would not have made. However, we are where we are and if they introduce much tougher measures than are currently in place, they are doing the right thing.
That said, I do hope they finally recognise that enabling people to plan ahead on this (e.g. 4 week lockdown now; expect another one on Nth January) will do far less harm than unpredictably bouncing in and out of lockdown, or near-lockdown.
This is what I'm expecting , a lockdown until start of December , allow Xmas to be as 'normal' as is possible, perhaps in a kind of Tier 2 level of restrictions, then most likely another lockdown in the New Year (unless my some great fortune R is consistently back under 1 somehow) Until we get a vaccine we are going to have this kind of messy mix of things, trying to balance health against the economy again.
The difference this time will be schools and colleges will stay open unless things get much much worse, though perhaps a longer Xmas break of maybe 3 weeks is possible I guess as opposed to the usual 2.
Out and about in East Ham High Street this morning - not so much pre-Lockdown as pre-Rainstorm. Mask wearing about 60% and widespread non-compliance in shops and supermarkets.
Many shops have the Track & Trace QR on their doors yet nobody formally "Checks In" so that makes the Track & Trace app useless. It's not the technology but the unwillingness of the public to use it.
Back in August I said that if we got a second lockdown, the public would have no one to blame but themselves and I'm still of that view. Yes, we can have a pop or two at the Prime Minister and the Government but the overwhelming message for me of the last 3-4 months is as soon as any kind of "approval" was given for a return to a pre-Covid lifestyle, a significant minority took it.
Guidelines, regulations, laws - call them whatever you like, if no one is willing to enforce them they are just a waste of space and that's the problem. As any liberal authoritarian will know, if you're not going to enforce a law you have to rely on consent and if those who won't consent know they will get away with it that's made the law not only an ass but a complete rear end.
That's the thing - there are societies and countries where either through fear or through motivated self and communal interest, most laws are obeyed, most guidelines are followed, most restrictions are enforced either within society itself or in extremis via a suitably present authority.
It doesn't seem to be the case in other countries where, one assumes, a more individualist or less community-focused culture exists. I was at the tube station this morning - the gates were open, no staff present. In a few minutes, I observed twenty people pass in and out of the gates - 12 tapped in, 8 did not. That's eight people "enjoying" free travel and eight lots of fee income missed by Transport for London. Oddly enough, mask wearing was being better observed.
I've seen it when TfL and British Transport Police are doing fare checks - they reap a rich harvest of evaders but at a time when TfL is complaining about a drop in income, there seems no action being taken to get that to which they are entitled.
Yet I don't believe in the need for an armed police officer on every street corner to enforce the law - we shouldn't need it. Why do people, mostly young men, choose to evade paying their fares? Those I saw didn't seem short of cash if the phone or the clothes were any guide so it can only be a conscious decision based on what's important for them and what they value - individuality, personal vanity rather than wider community values.
I agree - it's a misunderstanding of the word "populism".
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
Isn't it populist in the sense of "Quote me happy, not realistic" politics?
It's semantic, but "populist" generally means framing as Elite vs People.
Simply offering to do things you can't in practice achieve, or that will have hidden bad consequences, in order to appeal to voters is reprehensible, but isn't really what is meant by the term when used by political scientists etc.
The point about the (worsening) case numbers etc in USA isn't as a direct indication of whether Trump has done a good job or not. It is that he is wandering around the country telling everyone that the pandemic is effectively 'over' and nothing to worry about any more.
The other point about the US is that people misrepresent how Trump has failed in response to the virus. In many ways he has little direct influence over how to combat the pandemic. The primary response comes from state governors. Those who point that out are not wrong. However, what is true is that at every stage he has undermined state efforts and contradicted the advice that he scientists are trying to send out. Where he should be leading, pushing best practice, and encouraging States to work together and learn from each other, he has... not.
Hmm, looks like kinabalu was right and I was wrong about the severity of the consequences of Corbyn's suspension.
Even the NUM are in the mix. Aren't they so powerful as to bring down the Heath Government...oh wait that was nearly 47 years ago.
Starmer should stand firm. McCluskey has already stated he wouldn't support Labour under Starmer before Corbyn was shown the door, so Starmer should show McCluskey where he can find the exit too.
What this shows to me is that none of the signatories to the letter have the first clue, as to what the ECHR concluded. They too are in denial, chuck them all out!
Comments
And, as usual, its the more extreme possibility which gets the headlines.
https://youtu.be/Mx9z99YJ_7s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LE1evIbc3mw
Biden 54 .. Trump 42
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTtavgJXa2Q
Biden 49 .. Trump 49
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201031_FL_AtlasIntel.pdf
https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/1322518678936702976?s=19
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1322254443644026880
The minimum I think Biden is likely to get is 2016 plus Az, Mi, Wi and Pa. Which rather neatly takes Trump down to 249, just in the target window.
The next two most likely to fall, according to the betting at least I think, are SC and Fl. If Biden takes both of these Trump is down to 205 but we're still in the money. Any more then we're sunk but i think Dems are 11/8 and bigger for those.
My gut feeling is 4/1 is value but plenty of other permutations could see it win or lose so hard to be sure.
Also, Betvictor's o/u handicap line is Trump +81.5 which falls almost exactly in the middle of the band.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAM2Q7Sqlbk
I would have thought that Varadker would suffer from going after the Chief Medical Officer, but I think the comparison with Martin is helping him. Martin is apparently well known as a ditherer from his previous time in government as a minister, and it is being shown again now.
If it is Sunak, that's a dangerous game. He must feel very secure given his stock is high in the Conservative Party just now... but stocks can go down as well as up.
It's entirely possible that the US may hit the psychologically horrible figure of 100,000 coronavirus cases a day by Tuesday - it's up to 94,000 today.
I'm more confident on Florida than I am on Texas. As for PA, that's in the bag for Biden. Not even GOP shenanigans trying to discount postal ballots will help Trump and, by then, anyway I expect it to all be over. Biden will cross 270 before PA is required.
Hmm, looks like kinabalu was right and I was wrong about the severity of the consequences of Corbyn's suspension.
But not in Asia where they comprehend that a respiratory virus can still spread outdoors.
People in this country are unbelievably ignorant [god I had to restrain how I put that] when it comes to this virus. Sorry. No other way to put it.
Absolute mentalists.
There are also older people who are very set in their ways. The only people who've tried to shake my hand since March have been pensioners and I'm fairly sure that's been forgetfulness/habit of a lifetime rather than simply being cavalier.
Biden 51 .. Trump 44
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/10/Fox_October-27-29-2020_National_Topline_October-30-Release.pdf
Horrendous timing for Trump, who continues to mock people for wearing masks.
It's rather glib - how are you going to "shut down the virus" without restrictions on freedom and economic consequences, Joe? But it isn't "populist" in the ordinary meaning of the word as it relates to politics.
And no new money.
Biden 49 .. Trump 44
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/about/polling/surveys/pennsylvania/FINAL_PA_ELEC2020_LATE_OCT_REPORT (1) (1).pdf
Just cos Nippy makes BoZo look like the clown he is, that doesn't mean Wee Eck might not be even better... (If you're into that sort of thing)
https://twitter.com/Breaking24Seven/status/1322505994757431307?s=20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/covid-19-rates-not-surging-reveals-kings-college-research/
Biden 50 .. Trump 44
Because most of the USA hasn't really properly tried to suppress the virus.
So, that it is a trade off is not immediately apparent.
The others who knew appear to be Hancock (too weedy and no particular motive), and Gove (has form but motive unclear).
Seems strange today, but Labour used to use different colours in different parts of the country back then.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54747022
Biden 45 .. Trump 50
And I'll concede that evidence-based policy making, consistency, and leading by example are in themselves relatively low cost ideas that haven't really been deployed at all by the White House over the past four years.
'As early as next week' is vague. Monday? Tuesday? etc.
Just wearing masks and staying 2m apart seems doable, sensible and 1000x better.
When you add in the economic precariousness for people - lose your job *and* your healthcare - well, nearly no one wants lockdowns.
Yes, it is not enough.
But we cannot trash the economy and the future of the young in order to minimise the risks of said oldies dying.
The government has certainly made plenty of mistakes, some of which are understandable because of the scale of the crisis, but others which a competent government would not have made. However, we are where we are and if they introduce much tougher measures than are currently in place, they are doing the right thing.
That said, I do hope they finally recognise that enabling people to plan ahead on this (e.g. 4 week lockdown now; expect another one on Nth January) will do far less harm than unpredictably bouncing in and out of lockdown, or near-lockdown.
I have some plans Tuesday so I'm asking for selfish reasons
https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/10/27/spacex-executive-pitches-starship-for-space-debris-cleanup/
Gwynne Shotwell: "... it’s quite possible that we could leverage Starship to go to some of these dead rocket bodies — other people’s rocket’s, of course — basically pick up some of this junk in outer space.”
An instructional video of the proposed system is available here -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ftN0zqHtn0
But I don't really agree that's what populism is normally meant as being in political discussion, which is framing the debate up as People vs Elites.
What Biden is actually doing there is trying to defuse Trump's own populist rhetoric on the subject, which posits that Biden will side with Elitist pointy heads and shut down the People's freedoms/lose them their jobs. It may be doing so in a way that glosses over the difficulty of "shutting down the virus" without some of that problem (i.e. Trump massively exaggerates but there is a kernel of truth in his point). But it isn't "populist" in itself.
The difference this time will be schools and colleges will stay open unless things get much much worse, though perhaps a longer Xmas break of maybe 3 weeks is possible I guess as opposed to the usual 2.
Out and about in East Ham High Street this morning - not so much pre-Lockdown as pre-Rainstorm. Mask wearing about 60% and widespread non-compliance in shops and supermarkets.
Many shops have the Track & Trace QR on their doors yet nobody formally "Checks In" so that makes the Track & Trace app useless. It's not the technology but the unwillingness of the public to use it.
Back in August I said that if we got a second lockdown, the public would have no one to blame but themselves and I'm still of that view. Yes, we can have a pop or two at the Prime Minister and the Government but the overwhelming message for me of the last 3-4 months is as soon as any kind of "approval" was given for a return to a pre-Covid lifestyle, a significant minority took it.
Guidelines, regulations, laws - call them whatever you like, if no one is willing to enforce them they are just a waste of space and that's the problem. As any liberal authoritarian will know, if you're not going to enforce a law you have to rely on consent and if those who won't consent know they will get away with it that's made the law not only an ass but a complete rear end.
That's the thing - there are societies and countries where either through fear or through motivated self and communal interest, most laws are obeyed, most guidelines are followed, most restrictions are enforced either within society itself or in extremis via a suitably present authority.
It doesn't seem to be the case in other countries where, one assumes, a more individualist or less community-focused culture exists. I was at the tube station this morning - the gates were open, no staff present. In a few minutes, I observed twenty people pass in and out of the gates - 12 tapped in, 8 did not. That's eight people "enjoying" free travel and eight lots of fee income missed by Transport for London. Oddly enough, mask wearing was being better observed.
I've seen it when TfL and British Transport Police are doing fare checks - they reap a rich harvest of evaders but at a time when TfL is complaining about a drop in income, there seems no action being taken to get that to which they are entitled.
Yet I don't believe in the need for an armed police officer on every street corner to enforce the law - we shouldn't need it. Why do people, mostly young men, choose to evade paying their fares? Those I saw didn't seem short of cash if the phone or the clothes were any guide so it can only be a conscious decision based on what's important for them and what they value - individuality, personal vanity rather than wider community values.
Simply offering to do things you can't in practice achieve, or that will have hidden bad consequences, in order to appeal to voters is reprehensible, but isn't really what is meant by the term when used by political scientists etc.
The other point about the US is that people misrepresent how Trump has failed in response to the virus. In many ways he has little direct influence over how to combat the pandemic. The primary response comes from state governors. Those who point that out are not wrong. However, what is true is that at every stage he has undermined state efforts and contradicted the advice that he scientists are trying to send out. Where he should be leading, pushing best practice, and encouraging States to work together and learn from each other, he has... not.
Starmer should stand firm. McCluskey has already stated he wouldn't support Labour under Starmer before Corbyn was shown the door, so Starmer should show McCluskey where he can find the exit too.
What this shows to me is that none of the signatories to the letter have the first clue, as to what the ECHR concluded. They too are in denial, chuck them all out!
Biden 53 .. Trump 42
https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_poll_oct31