1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
Ok so -
1. As expected, but lockdowns will squash it. Vaccine coming. Pandemic over next year. 2. Bad recession but no depression. Govts and CBs are smart enough to prevent that. 3. No way. Trump is losing. Not even close. That's a stone cold certainty. 4. For all the hot air a Deal is happening and it will be close alignment for now. 5. Peak Islamic Nuttery has passed. Residuals can be dealt with by the legal system.
And one for the pot - this crisis is exposing blowhard populist leaders all over the world. Including ours.
1. How well have the SAGE estimates of the growth rate of the epidemic matched up to reality? We now have many weeks of calculations from SAGE of the daily & weekly growth rate. When integrated over time, how do these predictions actually compare against cases reported? I understand the growth in testing makes this a little more difficult, but this is still not a hard calculation to do.
(I am not one of those who think SAGE has done well, but this is more based on overall impression that their pronouncements lack 'scientific' common sense rather than hard analysis).
2. How well have the many model predictions from Ferguson, from King's College, from Washington, and so on, fared when matched with the data. I understand this is a bit harder, as the politicians and policy models respond to the models, so all scenarios are liable to being falsified by events in one way or another. Also, I think the main aim of the models is understanding -- rather than predictions -- but if policy makers use the models to inform policy, then some benchmarking of which models are trustworthy is needed.
Unless there is some attempt to understand which models have performed well (with respect to the past), or whether SAGE has performed well (with respect to the past), then there is no way of evaluating the reliability of their current advice or their predictions.
I also am not one who is interested in the blame game, here. I think it is absolutely inevitable that scientists predicting the behaviour of a still largely unknown disease will make some mistakes.
You hit the nail on the head with "Also, I think the main aim of the models is understanding -- rather than predictions". The major difficulty is that projections are not forecasts, but that distinction is lost on a great number of people. Better work could be done communicating this stuff to the public, but the old maxim about leading a horse to water applies. And worse, there are some who will wilfully misunderstand science in order to discredit someone because of ideological axe-grinding.
In complex human systems, the very act of making a forecast can change the outcome. An exponential graph might scare people into lowering their risk exposure, reducing the spread, nullifying the forecast. Then everybody goes crazy about how the "prediction" was wrong, because they didn't understand the nature of the forecast.
And the main takeaway from the Ferguson modelling earlier in the year, is that it far underestimated the number of deaths in the UK.
He said that he hoped we could keep it below 20,000. We blew past that figure, added another 20,000, and kept going for another 10,000 more.
I've seen people saying "Ah, the models and scenarios are way too low, real deaths and cases are far higher," and nodded, but then they seem to take a leap that eludes me to apparently saying, or at least trying to imply, "So we should not do anything."
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
You should be ashamed of yourself.
Oompa Loompa's are hard working, in awful conditions with extremely poor H & S. Their contracts are undoubtedly unfair.
Comparing Donald Trump to them is grotesque punching down.
Isn't it extraordinary that you can read a sentence like this "and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form".
The arrogance the UK show to countries like Zimbabwe and even Hong Kong while our political class crawl into bed with the self styled leader of the free world!
One consolation is that it looks like the EU's time has come. A power block of well intentioned nations with the humanitarian and democratic values the US have long since abandoned. Just a pity that the UK threw in its hand at the wrong time
In Valencia, a total of seven people, including a minor, have been arrested after participating in the Plaza del Ayuntamiento in an unauthorized protest against the Government's measures to stop the pandemic, which resulted in altercations and five police officers. the National Police injured, according to Europa Press. The city of Valencia thus joins Barcelona, Santander and Burgos, which also registered riots after demonstrations against the curfew.
Limited at the moment, not sure why they are protesting maybe they think it’s 5G that’s the problem.
The foreign secretary was only yesterday going into bat for Johnson's tiering policy, saying it was the right choice blah blah blah.
Goodness knows how he feels today.
There is no member of cabinet left who hasn't gone on TV to defend a policy that was simultaneously being ditched by the petulant teenagers running the show
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
That's about the strength of it.
Strictly's on tonight, though.
Enough to make me pick up a whisky bottle and revolver.
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
You should be ashamed of yourself.
Oompa Loompa's are hard working, in awful conditions with extremely poor H & S. Their contracts are undoubtedly unfair.
Comparing Donald Trump to them is grotesque punching down.
I wonder if number 10 really wants a Trump victory.
A Trump victory would also be a massive victory for the anti-lockdown lobby. We'll be looking across the water, watching Americans getting on with their lives, watching their economy growing, watching them creat jobs, as the winter rain pelts down. Deaths? a statistic
What political party in its right mind thinks it can carry on for long like that? What political party thinks it can run a country like that into the future and still exist?
The foreign secretary was only yesterday going into bat for Johnson's tiering policy, saying it was the right choice blah blah blah.
Goodness knows how he feels today.
There is no member of cabinet left who hasn't gone on TV to defend a policy that was simultaneously being ditched by the petulant teenagers running the show
JRM? Is he still insisting MPs travel back and forth to Westminster super spreading?
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
You should be ashamed of yourself.
Oompa Loompa's are hard working, in awful conditions with extremely poor H & S. Their contracts are undoubtedly unfair.
Comparing Donald Trump to them is grotesque punching down.
I wonder if number 10 really wants a Trump victory.
A Trump victory would also be a massive victory for the anti-lockdown lobby. We'll be looking across the water, watching Americans getting on with their lives, watching their economy growing, watching them creat jobs, as the winter rain pelts down. Deaths? a statistic
What political party in its right mind thinks it can carry on for long like that? What political party thinks it can run a country like that into the future and still exist?
Isn't it extraordinary that you can read a sentence like this "and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form".
The arrogance the UK show to countries like Zimbabwe and even Hong Kong while our political class crawl into bed with the self styled leader of the free world!
One consolation is that it looks like the EU's time has come. A power block of well intentioned nations with the humanitarian and democratic values the US have long since abandoned. Just a pity that the UK threw in its hand at the wrong time
The UK was misled by a bunch of lying opportunists who think Trump is their path to riches
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
So how can Van Tam claim the tiering policy is not working?
Two friends tested positive for covid, mild symptons but a vulnerable family member amongst them. Felt good about the covid secure enviroment of Butlins a week ago...
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
Yes they have. The North East has been in what is Tier 2 for 6 weeks and counting. Other areas also.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
There is quite difference between groups' projections, though I can't easily work out the pale ranges above and below the tracked lines.
Laura K's tweet may make more sense in the context of the presentation from which it was taken. In isolation, it looks like it is comparing apples with cabbages. A typically useless intervention from the journalists.
IMO, this would be useful. All the groups involved in the modelling (Laura K's plot has Imperial, Warwick, Cambridge/PHE, RWCS, LSHTM) should start with the English, Scottish, Welsh & NI data from March 2020.
They can also use the information on the dates of lockdowns, firebreaks, Tier level restrictions in the modelling. That is, they are free to model as best they can the policy that was actually implemented in the 4 countries.
What are the predictions for R or number of cases for tomorrow? Which of these models can forward model the data, with the known interventions in policy, to provide a good prediction for the situation now in E, S, W & NI.
It is a very common problem in research that a whole bunch of people with different codes and different models get completely different predictions. And you solve it by setting model problems for which the answer is known, and which all groups tackle. This really should be a priority for the modellers.
(My guess is that this is a really tough challenge, and if any group can do this for all 4 countries & get the answer within even 95 per cent confidence limits -- they will have bragging rights for the rest of time.)
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
To my mind the biggest failure of our system is isolation, but that's closely followed by the testing system being geared towards waiting for the virus to come to it rather than going out and finding it. The ONS study is probably the only thing we're doing that goes out and finds the virus, but even that just gives us a global view of regional levels rather than specific people.
Waiting for the virus to find us is never going to work, we need to be going out there with rapid tests and giving contacts results on the spot and then isolating them if they are positive with a follow up PCR test.
Isn't it extraordinary that you can read a sentence like this "and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form".
The arrogance the UK show to countries like Zimbabwe and even Hong Kong while our political class crawl into bed with the self styled leader of the free world!
One consolation is that it looks like the EU's time has come. A power block of well intentioned nations with the humanitarian and democratic values the US have long since abandoned. Just a pity that the UK threw in its hand at the wrong time
Was with you until the last paragraph. The EU is still too divided to have a coherent foreign policy and it while it has potential, the member states either can't agree, or they're pushing through policies at home which makes them look like hypocrites. Take Poland and abortion/LGBT free zones as an example of the latter, and for the former there's countless examples just this year. Probably the biggest is Cyprus blocking sanctions against Belarus because they wanted Turkey to face sanctions too. (Both need sanctions in my view, but take one and then work on the other rather than the perceived paralysis).
Sadly, it doesn't look like competent, reasonable, global liberal economic and social policy has a strong state champion at the minute.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
Whitty and Vallance produced a graph as well.
It predicted over 200k infections a day by now.
As we're currently running at 10% of that doesn't that mean the tier system is working ?
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
To my mind the biggest failure of our system is isolation, but that's closely followed by the testing system being geared towards waiting for the virus to come to it rather than going out and finding it. The ONS study is probably the only thing we're doing that goes out and finds the virus, but even that just gives us a global view of regional levels rather than specific people.
Waiting for the virus to find us is never going to work, we need to be going out there with rapid tests and giving contacts results on the spot and then isolating them if they are positive with a follow up PCR test.
And yet still, still, even though it looks like new lockdown incoming, Christmas and Easter holidays are not bring ruled out....total madness...we need to make it clear right now, you don't go doing foreign travel unless essential and we test / quarantine all new arrivals.
The other thing the government still don't seem to have decided on...what to do about students. They need to announce whatever the policy is, either mass test them or staged release, or even have to stay in place. Whatever it is, they need to decide now.
He’d be mad to, and he isn’t mad. At the moment, he can put forward proposals knowing that if he’s proved right everyone will be awed by his prescience and if he’s wrong everyone will be worrying about something else. Win/win.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
Good morning. A swing to Labor in Queensland l see. Continuing the trend seen in NZ, BC and Saskatchewan. All seeing the incumbents gaining. I pray this streak is broken in US. Hopefully the relative CV performance will factor.
If these are for the whole country, will this have to go to a parliamentary vote?
that seems to be the case, yes
It could use the same parliament bypassing powers under the 1984 Public Health Act that it used for the first lockdown. Some say that a legal challenge to this use could succeed but I don't think it's been tried.
Politically I doubt if that can be done as too many MPs are in denial about some aspect of this insoluble Rubik's cube to let this happen.
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
Where the F does the RFU think International players come from?
Laura K's tweet may make more sense in the context of the presentation from which it was taken. In isolation, it looks like it is comparing apples with cabbages. A typically useless intervention from the journalists.
Maybe it would be helpful if, instead of leaking to favoured journalists, the Government were honest with people, and held televised briefings with the PM and the scientists where this stuff could be questioned...
I note Jon Ralston has, in terms, called Nevada for Biden and from his report I have adjusted my numbers for the state from Biden +5/7 to +6/8 points. Clinton won by 2.5
Also today Anne Selzer (rated A+) will release her final Iowa poll. Her last poll was tied. Trump won by 9 points in 2016.
I see 538 and Trafalgar have come to an “arrangement”.
I've also noticed they have been supplying some cross tabs, not really informative but better than the useless PowerPoint graphs they only gave previously (they are not alone with that however). The crosstabs don't overly help them however, some trying to show 30% of Dems voting for trump and 25% Blacks also voting Trump etc.... Still maybe they have tapped into something no-one else at all has seen, though I suspect not.
I get the impression that Silver is a bit nervous that his model is underestimating Trump’s chances. Including Trafalgar polls presumably helps Trump’s win percentage
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
Laura K's tweet may make more sense in the context of the presentation from which it was taken. In isolation, it looks like it is comparing apples with cabbages. A typically useless intervention from the journalists.
Maybe it would be helpful if, instead of leaking to favoured journalists, the Government were honest with people, and held televised briefings with the PM and the scientists where this stuff could be questioned...
Just a thought
We have done that and the media just waste an hour asking about if i set up a business and employ my family on zero hour contracts can we have a business meeting at my home on Christmas day....or Prof Peston talking absolute horseshit about chemical engineering.
Seems to me there's no trust left to damage. Even Conservatives on here are sick of Johnson. Is there anyone left in the bunker other than HYUFD?
Remember when MothyMark took a break from pulling the head off it over pictures of Carrie to give the government a solid 'B+' on its handling of the pandemic. Seems like a different world.
From the makers of Lockdown and Lockdown 2: Lockdown Less Hard comes Lockdown 3: lockdown with a vengeance. A Christmas disaster movie.
After the failure of his plans in Lockdown 2, Prime Minister played by A ‘Massive’ Johnson must decide whether to put the whole country in deep freeze for six months. He knows that Co. Vid, played by sinister hard man Don Trump, will kill every man woman and child in the country if he doesn’t. What can stop him? Only our hero, Michelle Pfizer, who has the goods on Co Vid and will go one to one in hand to hand combat.
With cameos from Richy the Snake, Keir Less Starmer and the director, Dom Fucker Cummings, who drove past the camera during one of his legendary eye tests.
Laura K's tweet may make more sense in the context of the presentation from which it was taken. In isolation, it looks like it is comparing apples with cabbages. A typically useless intervention from the journalists.
Maybe it would be helpful if, instead of leaking to favoured journalists, the Government were honest with people, and held televised briefings with the PM and the scientists where this stuff could be questioned...
Just a thought
Boris and the scientist do have televised briefings and are questioned
The public have never been against lockdown and they must know that so I cannot think that's the reason.
BoZo thinks the public are against lockdown, which is why he is against lockdown
To be fair to him (why???) it is against his natural instincts. It's not quite everyone for themselves win his worldview, but the fewer controls, moral or otherwise, the better..
I think most people are "for" lockdown - at least when asked.
However, most of them want to go on a holiday, meet friends at the pub, family party etc.
So it's Lockdown Supermax II - apart from "I need to do what I want"
It’s another of those irregular verbs...
*They* are ignoring the rules spreading the virus *You* need to stay at home *I* am going down the pub
Dominic Cummings, addressing staff gathered in “mission control” on Tuesday morning, was blunt about the motivation behind Downing Street’s new outpost in the heart of the Cabinet Office.
The response to the Covid-19 crisis had too often been a “shitshow”, he said. This new unit would try to put an end to any “miscommunication” between the political and administrative arms of government.
He’d be mad to, and he isn’t mad. At the moment, he can put forward proposals knowing that if he’s proved right everyone will be awed by his prescience and if he’s wrong everyone will be worrying about something else. Win/win.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
Yes. A great time to be in opposition.
In the RoI, Sinn Fein have hit the jackpot -- with all 3 parties (Greens, FF and FG) tarred with the problems of governing.
Germany has set a new record for new daily coronavirus cases, reporting 19,059 infections. This breaks Germany’s previous highest daily increase of 18,681, set the day before.
Europe has listed more than 10 million Covid-19 cases to date since the virus first appeared, with the continent’s death tally at about 275,000.
The US appears to have set a daily record for new infections on Friday, with different sources placing the increase between 94,000 and 100,000 in 24 hours according – just one day after the previous high of 91,000.
Ukraine also registered a daily Covid-19 record, recording 8,752 new cases, up from the 8,312 new cases announced on Friday.
France has reported 49,215 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared with 47,637 on Thursday. The total number of infections rose to 1,331,984 while the death tally went up by 256 over 24 hours to 36,565.
Parochial types: why is Britain the only country suffering from the coronavirus?
Dominic Cummings, addressing staff gathered in “mission control” on Tuesday morning, was blunt about the motivation behind Downing Street’s new outpost in the heart of the Cabinet Office.
The response to the Covid-19 crisis had too often been a “shitshow”, he said. This new unit would try to put an end to any “miscommunication” between the political and administrative arms of government.
I don’t know what’s weirdest about Cummings - his bizarre imagination, his total inability to understand anything more complex than how much a ten pound note is worth or his utter lack of self awareness.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
Yes. And the only way to test the projection is by not acting and seeing if it happens. But since the "it" is calamitous we have to act to stop it happening. Thus the projection cannot be tested. It is in practice not so much a projection as a tool to trigger action. With coronavirus the very act of projecting changes what is being projected. This is the nature of the beast and it leaves much space for conspiracy theory and denialism - space which has become full to overflowing.
Germany has set a new record for new daily coronavirus cases, reporting 19,059 infections. This breaks Germany’s previous highest daily increase of 18,681, set the day before.
Europe has listed more than 10 million Covid-19 cases to date since the virus first appeared, with the continent’s death tally at about 275,000.
The US appears to have set a daily record for new infections on Friday, with different sources placing the increase between 94,000 and 100,000 in 24 hours according – just one day after the previous high of 91,000.
Ukraine also registered a daily Covid-19 record, recording 8,752 new cases, up from the 8,312 new cases announced on Friday.
France has reported 49,215 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared with 47,637 on Thursday. The total number of infections rose to 1,331,984 while the death tally went up by 256 over 24 hours to 36,565.
Parochial types: why is Britain the only country suffering from the coronavirus?
Germany has set a new record for new daily coronavirus cases, reporting 19,059 infections. This breaks Germany’s previous highest daily increase of 18,681, set the day before.
Europe has listed more than 10 million Covid-19 cases to date since the virus first appeared, with the continent’s death tally at about 275,000.
The US appears to have set a daily record for new infections on Friday, with different sources placing the increase between 94,000 and 100,000 in 24 hours according – just one day after the previous high of 91,000.
Ukraine also registered a daily Covid-19 record, recording 8,752 new cases, up from the 8,312 new cases announced on Friday.
France has reported 49,215 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared with 47,637 on Thursday. The total number of infections rose to 1,331,984 while the death tally went up by 256 over 24 hours to 36,565.
Parochial types: why is Britain the only country suffering from the coronavirus?
Remember when Anders Tegnell said we have to plan for 2 years of this, there is no point comparing responses after a few weeks and everybody tried to dismiss him and said they could solve it with a short lockdown.
Seems to me there's no trust left to damage. Even Conservatives on here are sick of Johnson. Is there anyone left in the bunker other than HYUFD?
Remember when MothyMark took a break from pulling the head off it over pictures of Carrie to give the government a solid 'B+' on its handling of the pandemic. Seems like a different world.
They've done some things very well - testing, furloughs, support for business, sorting PPE.
But failures as well - the most imbecilic being the encouragement of foreign holidays.
He’d be mad to, and he isn’t mad. At the moment, he can put forward proposals knowing that if he’s proved right everyone will be awed by his prescience and if he’s wrong everyone will be worrying about something else. Win/win.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
Yes. A great time to be in opposition.
In the RoI, Sinn Fein have hit the jackpot -- with all 3 parties (Greens, FF and FG) tarred with the problems of governing.
I know it's early and could be honeymoon period polling (although how this happens in a pandemic is beyond me), but Ireland seems to have bucked the trend of the junior partner always getting the flak. FG are well up on their GE performance and FF have nosedived, despite having the most seats and the Taoiseach. SF seem steady.
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
I sympathise with Dan Hodges view as this particular mess looks like one which is simple to comprehend (Sage advice in September was clear), undeniable and avoidable. However right at the top of the list of further events the long suffering public don't want, along with 10 feet of snow and beans on toast with your mother in law for Christmas, is a General Election.
At that point emigration to Tristan da Cunha begins to look a serious and balanced option.
But a Jeremy Hunt character as PM begins to have its attractions...
Laura K's tweet may make more sense in the context of the presentation from which it was taken. In isolation, it looks like it is comparing apples with cabbages. A typically useless intervention from the journalists.
Maybe it would be helpful if, instead of leaking to favoured journalists, the Government were honest with people, and held televised briefings with the PM and the scientists where this stuff could be questioned...
Just a thought
You are incredibly optimistic if you think a televised briefing and a journalist's question and answer session is likely to shed any light on the matter. Most journalists will fail the Monty Hall Problem
The most useful think might be the Royal Society trying to set up a large group of experts to scrutinise the scientific work in an open and honest fashion and to make some recommendations on the next steps to the Governemnet.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
What it is presumably meant to solve is a crisis in the NHS once again as the number of hospitalisations increases sharply and wards get close to capacity. For me, this is something that lockdowns are justified for, as an emergency break when we are being overwhelmed. Looking at the charts from yesterday that must be imminent.
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
The government has had months to solve the actual problem of people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. It has done nothing to solve it and believes the only way to prevent that is with a lockdown, either local or national. The government has had months to build a testing and tracking system that can seek out the virus, yet we're still waiting for people to become symptomatic and book a test. We're still allowing people to self certify their isolation and quarantine.
The government has had enough time to resolve these issues and honestly, I don't give a fuck about how European countries have also failed. We shouldn't be aiming to be just as bad as everyone else.
I think that you are being a bit ridiculous. The government threw billions at a track and trace system for the reasons you described. It doesn't work. It doesn't work for a variety of reasons. Off the top of my head these include our reluctance to allow ourselves to be adequately traced, the very bad advice the government got from the scientists about the need for testing to be pretty much 100% accurate before it was any good, the complexity and uncertainty of what is needed for infection to occur (is sitting on a bus for 10 mins enough, sitting 2 tables away in a cafe, etc etc), an increasing disregard for the rules with far more house parties and groupings than in the first wave which are far more likely to be indoors as the weather has changed, I could go on all day.
Your criticism seems to imply that there is an easy or even difficult solution here that the government is wilfully ignoring. There isn't. There just isn't. So we need to muddle along as well as we can and pray for a vaccine. In that muddle many of the short term tactical decisions can be criticised, too late, too early, to severe, not severe enough but the reality is that we cannot operate as a society with this virus in our community anywhere like we did before without huge numbers of deaths and a complete crisis in the NHS. That is where we are and swearing at the government really doesn't change a thing.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
Whitty and Vallance produced a graph as well.
It predicted over 200k infections a day by now.
As we're currently running at 10% of that doesn't that mean the tier system is working ?
Germany has set a new record for new daily coronavirus cases, reporting 19,059 infections. This breaks Germany’s previous highest daily increase of 18,681, set the day before.
Europe has listed more than 10 million Covid-19 cases to date since the virus first appeared, with the continent’s death tally at about 275,000.
The US appears to have set a daily record for new infections on Friday, with different sources placing the increase between 94,000 and 100,000 in 24 hours according – just one day after the previous high of 91,000.
Ukraine also registered a daily Covid-19 record, recording 8,752 new cases, up from the 8,312 new cases announced on Friday.
France has reported 49,215 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared with 47,637 on Thursday. The total number of infections rose to 1,331,984 while the death tally went up by 256 over 24 hours to 36,565.
Parochial types: why is Britain the only country suffering from the coronavirus?
Whataboutery
Tbh this latest leak won’t have any effect on public trust in the government because it’s been non-existent for months now apart from you Phil and HYUFD
A Ghanaian friend commented that the Chinese had managed to achieve the level of hatred in Africa in a decade that it took the British etc hundreds of years to get to.
Laura K's tweet may make more sense in the context of the presentation from which it was taken. In isolation, it looks like it is comparing apples with cabbages. A typically useless intervention from the journalists.
Maybe it would be helpful if, instead of leaking to favoured journalists, the Government were honest with people, and held televised briefings with the PM and the scientists where this stuff could be questioned...
Just a thought
You mean, like the ones in Scotland which the Tories, SLAB and the BBC hated and/or tried to stamp out?
Dominic Cummings, addressing staff gathered in “mission control” on Tuesday morning, was blunt about the motivation behind Downing Street’s new outpost in the heart of the Cabinet Office.
The response to the Covid-19 crisis had too often been a “shitshow”, he said. This new unit would try to put an end to any “miscommunication” between the political and administrative arms of government.
I don’t know what’s weirdest about Cummings - his bizarre imagination, his total inability to understand anything more complex than how much a ten pound note is worth or his utter lack of self awareness.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
How on earth does this work when the majority who have it don't even know? The wife of a colleague of mine who works as a physiotherapist got a positive test result this week. She was absolutely shocked. She had no idea and was completely asymptomatic. Everyone in her department is now being tested again but no one there had any manifest symptoms.
My opponent in court yesterday went to Spain in August. When he came back he and his wife were tested privately. They were told that they had both had it. They really don't know when. And they are both in their 60s.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Seems to me there's no trust left to damage. Even Conservatives on here are sick of Johnson. Is there anyone left in the bunker other than HYUFD?
Remember when MothyMark took a break from pulling the head off it over pictures of Carrie to give the government a solid 'B+' on its handling of the pandemic. Seems like a different world.
They've done some things very well - testing, furloughs, support for business, sorting PPE.
But failures as well - the most imbecilic being the encouragement of foreign holidays.
Testing should left out of that list. Too much going wrong. And VAT on PPE hasn't a great look ATM.
He’d be mad to, and he isn’t mad. At the moment, he can put forward proposals knowing that if he’s proved right everyone will be awed by his prescience and if he’s wrong everyone will be worrying about something else. Win/win.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
Yes. A great time to be in opposition.
In the RoI, Sinn Fein have hit the jackpot -- with all 3 parties (Greens, FF and FG) tarred with the problems of governing.
I know it's early and could be honeymoon period polling (although how this happens in a pandemic is beyond me), but Ireland seems to have bucked the trend of the junior partner always getting the flak. FG are well up on their GE performance and FF have nosedived, despite having the most seats and the Taoiseach. SF seem steady.
Who ended up with most of the blame for Golf-gate? FF?
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
What you are seeing, I think, is that the entire political class is detaching from reality. It happens from time to time, but this is the most serious one, I can recall.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
Isn't it extraordinary that you can read a sentence like this "and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form".
The arrogance the UK show to countries like Zimbabwe and even Hong Kong while our political class crawl into bed with the self styled leader of the free world!
One consolation is that it looks like the EU's time has come. A power block of well intentioned nations with the humanitarian and democratic values the US have long since abandoned. Just a pity that the UK threw in its hand at the wrong time
The UK was misled by a bunch of lying opportunists who think Trump is their path to riches
Without Trump it's easy to see Johnson looking pretty isolated if not faintly ridiculous. The little fat boy who never gets invited to anyone's gathering
The public have never been against lockdown and they must know that so I cannot think that's the reason.
BoZo thinks the public are against lockdown, which is why he is against lockdown
To be fair to him (why???) it is against his natural instincts. It's not quite everyone for themselves win his worldview, but the fewer controls, moral or otherwise, the better..
I think most people are "for" lockdown - at least when asked.
However, most of them want to go on a holiday, meet friends at the pub, family party etc.
So it's Lockdown Supermax II - apart from "I need to do what I want"
It’s another of those irregular verbs...
*They* are ignoring the rules spreading the virus *You* need to stay at home *I* am going down the pub
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
What it is presumably meant to solve is a crisis in the NHS once again as the number of hospitalisations increases sharply and wards get close to capacity. For me, this is something that lockdowns are justified for, as an emergency break when we are being overwhelmed. Looking at the charts from yesterday that must be imminent.
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
I agree with Max.
Lockdown, as an emergency measure to prevent collapse of the health service, only becomes necessary because of a massive failure in ensuring that the infectious are isolating
This failure is so massive that the government doesn't even measure what proportion of people are isolating. There are no statistics on this from the £12bn we have spent on track and trace.
The entire point of that £12bn is that the infectious will isolate, but we have no idea to what extent it is falling. Success is literally impossible.
Boris Johnson calling Sir Keir Starmer 'Captain Hindsight' turns out to be like the time Gordon Brown tried to portray David Cameron as Gene Hunt, that worked out well for both PMs.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Journalists clearly arent good at spotting bullshit really as they fail to call out the King of Bullshit PM daily
Nor are the Tories who believed Boris would make a good PM and had an oven ready deal.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Whats your solution?
If you are going to lockdown, you have to do it for more than 2 weeks, it that simple. It is why France, Germany etc are saying its going to be a month for starters, then we will review it.
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure. #2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation. #3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs. ...
Comments
1. As expected, but lockdowns will squash it. Vaccine coming. Pandemic over next year.
2. Bad recession but no depression. Govts and CBs are smart enough to prevent that.
3. No way. Trump is losing. Not even close. That's a stone cold certainty.
4. For all the hot air a Deal is happening and it will be close alignment for now.
5. Peak Islamic Nuttery has passed. Residuals can be dealt with by the legal system.
And one for the pot - this crisis is exposing blowhard populist leaders all over the world. Including ours.
He said that he hoped we could keep it below 20,000. We blew past that figure, added another 20,000, and kept going for another 10,000 more.
I've seen people saying "Ah, the models and scenarios are way too low, real deaths and cases are far higher," and nodded, but then they seem to take a leap that eludes me to apparently saying, or at least trying to imply, "So we should not do anything."
At which point, I'm all "Um, you lost me there."
Oompa Loompa's are hard working, in awful conditions with extremely poor H & S. Their contracts are undoubtedly unfair.
Comparing Donald Trump to them is grotesque punching down.
The arrogance the UK show to countries like Zimbabwe and even Hong Kong while our political class crawl into bed with the self styled leader of the free world!
One consolation is that it looks like the EU's time has come. A power block of well intentioned nations with the humanitarian and democratic values the US have long since abandoned. Just a pity that the UK threw in its hand at the wrong time
Goodness knows how he feels today.
Limited at the moment, not sure why they are protesting maybe they think it’s 5G that’s the problem.
A Trump victory would also be a massive victory for the anti-lockdown lobby. We'll be looking across the water, watching Americans getting on with their lives, watching their economy growing, watching them creat jobs, as the winter rain pelts down. Deaths? a statistic
What political party in its right mind thinks it can carry on for long like that? What political party thinks it can run a country like that into the future and still exist?
And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
BoJo's position as Conservative leader might be more vulnerable- though who is the person to take over in a coronation?
The thing to look for is whether "Delivering letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee" is declared a non-essential job, forbidden under lockdown.
China shocked to discover the developed world views it in a negative light
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/10/27/commentary/world-commentary/china-developed-world-negative-sentiment/
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
IMO, this would be useful. All the groups involved in the modelling (Laura K's plot has Imperial, Warwick, Cambridge/PHE, RWCS, LSHTM) should start with the English, Scottish, Welsh & NI data from March 2020.
They can also use the information on the dates of lockdowns, firebreaks, Tier level restrictions in the modelling. That is, they are free to model as best they can the policy that was actually implemented in the 4 countries.
What are the predictions for R or number of cases for tomorrow? Which of these models can forward model the data, with the known interventions in policy, to provide a good prediction for the situation now in E, S, W & NI.
It is a very common problem in research that a whole bunch of people with different codes and different models get completely different predictions. And you solve it by setting model problems for which the answer is known, and which all groups tackle. This really should be a priority for the modellers.
(My guess is that this is a really tough challenge, and if any group can do this for all 4 countries & get the answer within even 95 per cent confidence limits -- they will have bragging rights for the rest of time.)
Waiting for the virus to find us is never going to work, we need to be going out there with rapid tests and giving contacts results on the spot and then isolating them if they are positive with a follow up PCR test.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1322494337343803392
Sadly, it doesn't look like competent, reasonable, global liberal economic and social policy has a strong state champion at the minute.
It predicted over 200k infections a day by now.
As we're currently running at 10% of that doesn't that mean the tier system is working ?
The other thing the government still don't seem to have decided on...what to do about students. They need to announce whatever the policy is, either mass test them or staged release, or even have to stay in place. Whatever it is, they need to decide now.
Good to see he’s found a new pot to stir.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
A swing to Labor in Queensland l see.
Continuing the trend seen in NZ, BC and Saskatchewan. All seeing the incumbents gaining.
I pray this streak is broken in US. Hopefully the relative CV performance will factor.
Politically I doubt if that can be done as too many MPs are in denial about some aspect of this insoluble Rubik's cube to let this happen.
Just a thought
And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
After the failure of his plans in Lockdown 2, Prime Minister played by A ‘Massive’ Johnson must decide whether to put the whole country in deep freeze for six months. He knows that Co. Vid, played by sinister hard man Don Trump, will kill every man woman and child in the country if he doesn’t. What can stop him? Only our hero, Michelle Pfizer, who has the goods on Co Vid and will go one to one in hand to hand combat.
With cameos from Richy the Snake, Keir Less Starmer and the director, Dom Fucker Cummings, who drove past the camera during one of his legendary eye tests.
Coming to a cinema near you - 1st Jan 2021.
*They* are ignoring the rules spreading the virus
*You* need to stay at home
*I* am going down the pub
Dominic Cummings, addressing staff gathered in “mission control” on Tuesday morning, was blunt about the motivation behind Downing Street’s new outpost in the heart of the Cabinet Office.
The response to the Covid-19 crisis had too often been a “shitshow”, he said. This new unit would try to put an end to any “miscommunication” between the political and administrative arms of government.
In the RoI, Sinn Fein have hit the jackpot -- with all 3 parties (Greens, FF and FG) tarred with the problems of governing.
Germany has set a new record for new daily coronavirus cases, reporting 19,059 infections. This breaks Germany’s previous highest daily increase of 18,681, set the day before.
Europe has listed more than 10 million Covid-19 cases to date since the virus first appeared, with the continent’s death tally at about 275,000.
The US appears to have set a daily record for new infections on Friday, with different sources placing the increase between 94,000 and 100,000 in 24 hours according – just one day after the previous high of 91,000.
Ukraine also registered a daily Covid-19 record, recording 8,752 new cases, up from the 8,312 new cases announced on Friday.
France has reported 49,215 new coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared with 47,637 on Thursday. The total number of infections rose to 1,331,984 while the death tally went up by 256 over 24 hours to 36,565.
Parochial types: why is Britain the only country suffering from the coronavirus?
But failures as well - the most imbecilic being the encouragement of foreign holidays.
At that point emigration to Tristan da Cunha begins to look a serious and balanced option.
But a Jeremy Hunt character as PM begins to have its attractions...
The most useful think might be the Royal Society trying to set up a large group of experts to scrutinise the scientific work in an open and honest fashion and to make some recommendations on the next steps to the Governemnet.
Your criticism seems to imply that there is an easy or even difficult solution here that the government is wilfully ignoring. There isn't. There just isn't. So we need to muddle along as well as we can and pray for a vaccine. In that muddle many of the short term tactical decisions can be criticised, too late, too early, to severe, not severe enough but the reality is that we cannot operate as a society with this virus in our community anywhere like we did before without huge numbers of deaths and a complete crisis in the NHS. That is where we are and swearing at the government really doesn't change a thing.
Note: the ONS data is up to the 17th
Tbh this latest leak won’t have any effect on public trust in the government because it’s been non-existent for months now apart from you Phil and HYUFD
My opponent in court yesterday went to Spain in August. When he came back he and his wife were tested privately. They were told that they had both had it. They really don't know when. And they are both in their 60s.
That would imply there was a time he had it.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1322501925682761728
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1322502716191657984
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1322503145298272256
Lockdown, as an emergency measure to prevent collapse of the health service, only becomes necessary because of a massive failure in ensuring that the infectious are isolating
This failure is so massive that the government doesn't even measure what proportion of people are isolating. There are no statistics on this from the £12bn we have spent on track and trace.
The entire point of that £12bn is that the infectious will isolate, but we have no idea to what extent it is falling. Success is literally impossible.
Nor are the Tories who believed Boris would make a good PM and had an oven ready deal.
DBMIVL (Dont blame me I voted Labour)
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure.
#2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation.
#3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs.
...