He’d be mad to, and he isn’t mad. At the moment, he can put forward proposals knowing that if he’s proved right everyone will be awed by his prescience and if he’s wrong everyone will be worrying about something else. Win/win.
And in any case, the price for a GNU should at the very least be Johnson’s job and Cummings’ prosecution, and Johnson will not agree to that.
Yes. A great time to be in opposition.
In the RoI, Sinn Fein have hit the jackpot -- with all 3 parties (Greens, FF and FG) tarred with the problems of governing.
I know it's early and could be honeymoon period polling (although how this happens in a pandemic is beyond me), but Ireland seems to have bucked the trend of the junior partner always getting the flak. FG are well up on their GE performance and FF have nosedived, despite having the most seats and the Taoiseach. SF seem steady.
Who ended up with most of the blame for Golf-gate? FF?
Not enough polling to tell, FG had already gone up prior to that, and Phil Hogan was nominally an FG politician so you'd have expected his party to take the hit. I think Leo is still riding the wave of his pandemic success from when he was Taoiseach and the anger over the second wave has been directed at the current Taoiseach, who happens to be FF/Martin.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
What it is presumably meant to solve is a crisis in the NHS once again as the number of hospitalisations increases sharply and wards get close to capacity. For me, this is something that lockdowns are justified for, as an emergency break when we are being overwhelmed. Looking at the charts from yesterday that must be imminent.
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
The government has had months to solve the actual problem of people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. It has done nothing to solve it and believes the only way to prevent that is with a lockdown, either local or national. The government has had months to build a testing and tracking system that can seek out the virus, yet we're still waiting for people to become symptomatic and book a test. We're still allowing people to self certify their isolation and quarantine.
The government has had enough time to resolve these issues and honestly, I don't give a fuck about how European countries have also failed. We shouldn't be aiming to be just as bad as everyone else.
I think that you are being a bit ridiculous. The government threw billions at a track and trace system for the reasons you described. It doesn't work. It doesn't work for a variety of reasons. Off the top of my head these include our reluctance to allow ourselves to be adequately traced, the very bad advice the government got from the scientists about the need for testing to be pretty much 100% accurate before it was any good, the complexity and uncertainty of what is needed for infection to occur (is sitting on a bus for 10 mins enough, sitting 2 tables away in a cafe, etc etc), an increasing disregard for the rules with far more house parties and groupings than in the first wave which are far more likely to be indoors as the weather has changed, I could go on all day.
Your criticism seems to imply that there is an easy or even difficult solution here that the government is wilfully ignoring. There isn't. There just isn't. So we need to muddle along as well as we can and pray for a vaccine. In that muddle many of the short term tactical decisions can be criticised, too late, too early, to severe, not severe enough but the reality is that we cannot operate as a society with this virus in our community anywhere like we did before without huge numbers of deaths and a complete crisis in the NHS. That is where we are and swearing at the government really doesn't change a thing.
Not at all. I think you're suffering from rose tinted glasses on this. The government has had an absolute shocker over basically everything.
The main failure is people who have the virus not isolating even after getting a positive test result. That's literally the number one thing that needs resolving, there are loads of ways to do it, the NZ method is central quarantine facilities, the Koreans use daily checks and GPS tracking on smartphones, the Australians use daily door knocks and phonecalls to landlines. We do nothing. We say "please don't go out, we trust you'll do the right thing" and people continue as normal.
Failure number two is waiting for the virus to come to us, we wait for people to develop symptoms and then request a test, by then they've been infectious for 4-6 days already and then another 2-4 days while awaiting their test result. Someone who has the virus could be infectious for up to 10 days in the UK before they get their positive result and then there is no system in place to prevent them from interacting with the wider community.
I'm not suggesting either of these are easy to resolve, only that they are possible and the current alternative of another lockdown is a disaster, economically, socially and for people's mental health. I've literally said previously that these are the kinds of policy decisions that require the government to make use of its 80 seat majority because they involve tough decisions like possible GPS tracking of people who have the virus, taking people's choices away on whether they should have to be tested, there is undoubtedly a huge loss of liberty for people in specific scenarios, however, the alternative is another lockdown which will serve no purpose.
Seems to me there's no trust left to damage. Even Conservatives on here are sick of Johnson. Is there anyone left in the bunker other than HYUFD?
Remember when MothyMark took a break from pulling the head off it over pictures of Carrie to give the government a solid 'B+' on its handling of the pandemic. Seems like a different world.
They've done some things very well - testing, furloughs, support for business, sorting PPE.
But failures as well - the most imbecilic being the encouragement of foreign holidays.
Testing should left out of that list. Too much going wrong. And VAT on PPE hasn't a great look ATM.
Testing seems to be going great - massive capacity and people getting a test within hours and the results a day later.
So I think today is the day Johnson's surpassed May's record for incompetence.
And there's a bright future of 3 and a bit years to come. Just how high and how majestically will he clear the towering bar set? We can only gaze in admiration and awe and feel a little humbled by the spectacle it is our privilege to witness.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Whats your solution?
If you are going to lockdown, you have to do it for more than 2 weeks, it that simple. It is why France, Germany etc are saying its going to be a month for starters, then we will review it.
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure. #2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation. #3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs. ...
We unlocked too much over the summer and early autumn, and are paying the price now.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
What you are seeing, I think, is that the entire political class is detaching from reality. It happens from time to time, but this is the most serious one, I can recall.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
This. The possibilities are that either most of the world is ignoring simple solutions deliberately or through incompetence, or there are no simple solutions. The latter thought is so terrifying to most people that they have to believe that the former is the case, for the sake of their own sanity, if nothing else.
Boris has lost me over a series of avoidable errors starting with the non sacking of Cummings, the farce around Williamson and the exam chaos, the absolute idiotic idea that he could not agree with Marcus Rashford's campaign, an own goal of poll tax proportions, and also his toxic relationship with Scotland
However, on covid he shares an instinct with most conservatives that he does not want to interfere with peoples freedoms and is very obviously determined to prevent, wherever possible, a deeper economic armageddon than we are already facing.
The critics attack eat out to help out but as has been pointed out the pandemic is raging across Europe who did not have these schemes and of course the test and trace of 500,000 tests a day is up there with Germany and, apart from the southern hemisphere, I cannot identify any country that has a test and trace system that is coping today (even Germany has been overwhelmed)
The public are overwhelmingly for a lockdown but the idea a two week circuit breaker would ever do the trick has become widely believed. Drakeford announced yesterday that on the 9th November new Wales wide restrictions will be put in place and nobody expects it will be much different than today's fire-breaker
In truth we are in a crisis that is going to create enormous resentment over the coming years and great financial pain for most everybody. The divide today is between the public sector, local authority and pensioners who have all continued to receive their incomes, pension protections and so far the pensioners triple lock. On the other side is the annihilation of private sector jobs and futures which in case it is not recognised is where the vast amount of revenue comes from to pay for the public sector, pensions and benefits
I hope the back benchers and especially the new red wall group take action to replace Boris as soon as possible but of course it is not going to happen before the end of transition on the 31st December and I just hope a deal, any deal, can be agree with the EU
And finally I congratulate Keir Starmer on suspending Corbyn and expect more need to follow. He has every chance of being PM in 2024 under the present political trajectory unless he relents and lets Corbyn back in and Boris is not replaced
This is another thing that drives me mad...the UK government have lurched from total lockdown to go out and travel around as much as you like. Even Uncle Thickies mate in Wales who banned oven glove sales in Tescos worked out to tell people to stay within x miles of their home was a good idea.
It really doesn't make any difference, though. If we ignore the Sweden bores, and discount the US because Trump, and a handful of inscrutable nations waaay East of Suez of which we know little, that leaves close on 200 governments earnestly wondering whether rigid straight lines, or more informal clusters, are the way to go deckchair-wise. To look no further, the failure of Drakeford and Sturgeon to outperform gives Johnson a fig leaf the size of a cricket square.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Whats your solution?
If you are going to lockdown, you have to do it for more than 2 weeks, it that simple. It is why France, Germany etc are saying its going to be a month for starters, then we will review it.
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure. #2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation. #3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs. ...
Can we do #1. before Farage comes back. re #3 what if we never get an effective vaccine?
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
How on earth does this work when the majority who have it don't even know? The wife of a colleague of mine who works as a physiotherapist got a positive test result this week. She was absolutely shocked. She had no idea and was completely asymptomatic. Everyone in her department is now being tested again but no one there had any manifest symptoms.
My opponent in court yesterday went to Spain in August. When he came back he and his wife were tested privately. They were told that they had both had it. They really don't know when. And they are both in their 60s.
This is another thing that drives me mad...the UK government have lurched from total lockdown to go out and travel around as much as you like. Even Uncle Thickies mate in Wales who banned oven glove sales in Tescos worked out to tell people to stay within x miles of their home was a good idea.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Whats your solution?
If you are going to lockdown, you have to do it for more than 2 weeks, it that simple. It is why France, Germany etc are saying its going to be a month for starters, then we will review it.
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure. #2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation. #3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs. ...
We unlocked too much over the summer and early autumn, and are paying the price now.
Ants and grasshoppers.
I said at the time, allowing foreign summer holidays was insanity...the most shocking thing is the likes of Germany also went for it.
A Ghanaian friend commented that the Chinese had managed to achieve the level of hatred in Africa in a decade that it took the British etc hundreds of years to get to.
I'm impressed that your Ghanian friend is able to speak for the whole of, er, Africa.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Whats your solution?
If you are going to lockdown, you have to do it for more than 2 weeks, it that simple. It is why France, Germany etc are saying its going to be a month for starters, then we will review it.
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure. #2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation. #3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs. ...
We unlocked too much over the summer and early autumn, and are paying the price now.
Ants and grasshoppers.
No, we locked down without any semblance of a proper isolation system or a testing system that goes out and finds cases rather than waiting for cases to come to it. We're paying for those failures now. The worst part about all of this is that both are still resolvable, just with more difficulty now than in the summer where scaling up from something small would have been easier than with 550k cases in the country.
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
What you are seeing, I think, is that the entire political class is detaching from reality. It happens from time to time, but this is the most serious one, I can recall.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
Good strap line for SKS: Come with me if you want to live.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
How on earth does this work when the majority who have it don't even know? The wife of a colleague of mine who works as a physiotherapist got a positive test result this week. She was absolutely shocked. She had no idea and was completely asymptomatic. Everyone in her department is now being tested again but no one there had any manifest symptoms.
My opponent in court yesterday went to Spain in August. When he came back he and his wife were tested privately. They were told that they had both had it. They really don't know when. And they are both in their 60s.
Being asymptomatic is not a bad thing.
Its a very good thing for the person who has it. Its a complete disaster for this supposedly straightforward test and isolate policy. The majority who have it will not be tested. Therefore they will not isolate. Therefore the virus will continue to spread. Therefore we will, at times, need lockdowns restricting everyone's movement on the basis that they might be a carrier until the level of infections falls. This is where we are and it is not a good place.
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
What you are seeing, I think, is that the entire political class is detaching from reality. It happens from time to time, but this is the most serious one, I can recall.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
Good strap line for SKS: Come with me if you want to live.
A professor of economics is advising on epidemiology. Maybe Bobby Davro could come up with a strategy for cheap space flights. After all, studying for something most of your life doesn't seem to hold much sway these days.
And of course the journalist fails to.mention a key problem with the circuit breaker model presented to the government....as a piece of research it was bullshit.
Whats your solution?
If you are going to lockdown, you have to do it for more than 2 weeks, it that simple. It is why France, Germany etc are saying its going to be a month for starters, then we will review it.
My solutions have for a long time being along th3 following lines...
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure. #2 forced isolation as described by Max...you have to go into hotel type accommodation. #3 set of long term restrictions across the country that are in place until full deployment of a vaccine e.g none of this open / closing pubs. ...
Can we do #1. before Farage comes back. re #3 what if we never get an effective vaccine?
Well when i say long term plan, I meab at least a year. If we had put in a consistent set of restrictions in the summer and we get to summer 2021 with no sign of a vaccine, then we can modify course. But the worst approach is on / off, 2 week shutdown, rinse and repeat or an ever changing set of rules that never get to the heart of the problem e.g. 10pm closing time for pubs.
The public can't keep up and businesses can't survive either, you just give false hope.
Seems to me there's no trust left to damage. Even Conservatives on here are sick of Johnson. Is there anyone left in the bunker other than HYUFD?
Remember when MothyMark took a break from pulling the head off it over pictures of Carrie to give the government a solid 'B+' on its handling of the pandemic. Seems like a different world.
They've done some things very well - testing, furloughs, support for business, sorting PPE.
But failures as well - the most imbecilic being the encouragement of foreign holidays.
Testing should left out of that list. Too much going wrong. And VAT on PPE hasn't a great look ATM.
Testing seems to be going great - massive capacity and people getting a test within hours and the results a day later.
Really? It certainly wasn't. If it is now, good. How about tracing? Seems to being left to chance!
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
The momentum toward lockdown was enormous before deaths ramped up, so whether they think it the best option or not I don't think the government can hold out.
It's not about holding out it's about making the correct policy moves. I've been through this about a thousand times on here, it is possible to prevent people who have the virus from interacting with those that don't. Even now we can do it with 550k cases in the country. Whether isolation is done in hotels, by GPS tracking or by random daily door knocks (or a combination) that's the key to resolving this, making sure people who have the virus stay away from people who don't. Lockdown only does this whole lockdown is on and not very well either.
Agreed. And that is a key element of how countries who succeeded in controlling the virus did it.
It’s not impossible, even though we’re starting from a much harder place.
Test and isolate are far more important than trace - which at these levels we can’t do anyway.
How on earth does this work when the majority who have it don't even know? The wife of a colleague of mine who works as a physiotherapist got a positive test result this week. She was absolutely shocked. She had no idea and was completely asymptomatic. Everyone in her department is now being tested again but no one there had any manifest symptoms.
My opponent in court yesterday went to Spain in August. When he came back he and his wife were tested privately. They were told that they had both had it. They really don't know when. And they are both in their 60s.
Being asymptomatic is not a bad thing.
Unless it means not knowing you have it and therefore giving it to others.
#1 shut the f##king border. All new arrivals quarantine like Australia. No foreign travel for pleasure.
...
That would have worked but it would have been so unpopular it would have required the type of decisive and compelling leadership which Johnson specialises in not having.
This is another thing that drives me mad...the UK government have lurched from total lockdown to go out and travel around as much as you like. Even Uncle Thickies mate in Wales who banned oven glove sales in Tescos worked out to tell people to stay within x miles of their home was a good idea.
Uncle Thickie's mate hasn't closed the Airports though.
Cardiff Airport is open, We are allowed to travel to the Airport right now, even if we have to travel > x miles from home.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I don't mean to be funny, but in these exceptional circumstances waiting 3 days juat to stick to parliamentary procedure, while people will go on the yet another final lash over the weekend is stupid.
With this pandemic, you have to meet, decide, implement, straight away. Not meet, wait 3 days to announce, then 3 days to implement. It was totally ridiculous all the negotiating over Manchester for 10 days. It should have been meeting, we heard you, this is the deal, Tier 3 next day.
Yes we can say the government should have acted sooner or whatever, but we are where we are and Boris needs to get out now and get on with it.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
What it is presumably meant to solve is a crisis in the NHS once again as the number of hospitalisations increases sharply and wards get close to capacity. For me, this is something that lockdowns are justified for, as an emergency break when we are being overwhelmed. Looking at the charts from yesterday that must be imminent.
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
The government has had months to solve the actual problem of people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. It has done nothing to solve it and believes the only way to prevent that is with a lockdown, either local or national. The government has had months to build a testing and tracking system that can seek out the virus, yet we're still waiting for people to become symptomatic and book a test. We're still allowing people to self certify their isolation and quarantine.
The government has had enough time to resolve these issues and honestly, I don't give a fuck about how European countries have also failed. We shouldn't be aiming to be just as bad as everyone else.
I think that you are being a bit ridiculous. The government threw billions at a track and trace system for the reasons you described. It doesn't work. It doesn't work for a variety of reasons. Off the top of my head these include our reluctance to allow ourselves to be adequately traced, the very bad advice the government got from the scientists about the need for testing to be pretty much 100% accurate before it was any good, the complexity and uncertainty of what is needed for infection to occur (is sitting on a bus for 10 mins enough, sitting 2 tables away in a cafe, etc etc), an increasing disregard for the rules with far more house parties and groupings than in the first wave which are far more likely to be indoors as the weather has changed, I could go on all day.
Your criticism seems to imply that there is an easy or even difficult solution here that the government is wilfully ignoring. There isn't. There just isn't. So we need to muddle along as well as we can and pray for a vaccine. In that muddle many of the short term tactical decisions can be criticised, too late, too early, to severe, not severe enough but the reality is that we cannot operate as a society with this virus in our community anywhere like we did before without huge numbers of deaths and a complete crisis in the NHS. That is where we are and swearing at the government really doesn't change a thing.
Not at all. I think you're suffering from rose tinted glasses on this. The government has had an absolute shocker over basically everything.
The main failure is people who have the virus not isolating even after getting a positive test result. That's literally the number one thing that needs resolving, there are loads of ways to do it, the NZ method is central quarantine facilities, the Koreans use daily checks and GPS tracking on smartphones, the Australians use daily door knocks and phonecalls to landlines. We do nothing. We say "please don't go out, we trust you'll do the right thing" and people continue as normal.
Failure number two is waiting for the virus to come to us, we wait for people to develop symptoms and then request a test, by then they've been infectious for 4-6 days already and then another 2-4 days while awaiting their test result. Someone who has the virus could be infectious for up to 10 days in the UK before they get their positive result and then there is no system in place to prevent them from interacting with the wider community.
I'm not suggesting either of these are easy to resolve, only that they are possible and the current alternative of another lockdown is a disaster, economically, socially and for people's mental health. I've literally said previously that these are the kinds of policy decisions that require the government to make use of its 80 seat majority because they involve tough decisions like possible GPS tracking of people who have the virus, taking people's choices away on whether they should have to be tested, there is undoubtedly a huge loss of liberty for people in specific scenarios, however, the alternative is another lockdown which will serve no purpose.
Our regulations have required those who receive a positive test to self isolate for months now. I am sure the vast majority do very responsibly. It hasn't prevented a second wave.
And I have criticised many aspects of the government policy on this. I just have the self awareness to realise that shouting from the sidelines is a hell of a lot easier than trying to manage something like this with crap data and conflicting priorities.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
The W-V graph was reported infections starting at 3,105 on 15/09/20 and doubling every week.
Once again, nobody has explained what lockdown 2 is going to solve. We're run by a government of c***s. Absolutely fucking clueless and they're going to destroy what's left of the economy and we will be back where we are today a few weeks after it ends or in a more realistic scenario it doesn't end in 4 weeks, it ends in April because the government haven't got a clue.
What it is presumably meant to solve is a crisis in the NHS once again as the number of hospitalisations increases sharply and wards get close to capacity. For me, this is something that lockdowns are justified for, as an emergency break when we are being overwhelmed. Looking at the charts from yesterday that must be imminent.
The government is trying to mitigate economic damage within that parameter. Acknowledging that further restrictions are likely or inevitable causes damage of itself and depresses activity. I am not at all surprised or even disappointed that Ministers say that they have no plans to do things until they have to. I don't really see an alternative.
This is all enormously frustrating and difficult but I think your criticism of the government is way overdone.
The government has had months to solve the actual problem of people who have the virus interacting with people who don't. It has done nothing to solve it and believes the only way to prevent that is with a lockdown, either local or national. The government has had months to build a testing and tracking system that can seek out the virus, yet we're still waiting for people to become symptomatic and book a test. We're still allowing people to self certify their isolation and quarantine.
The government has had enough time to resolve these issues and honestly, I don't give a fuck about how European countries have also failed. We shouldn't be aiming to be just as bad as everyone else.
I think that you are being a bit ridiculous. The government threw billions at a track and trace system for the reasons you described. It doesn't work. It doesn't work for a variety of reasons. Off the top of my head these include our reluctance to allow ourselves to be adequately traced, the very bad advice the government got from the scientists about the need for testing to be pretty much 100% accurate before it was any good, the complexity and uncertainty of what is needed for infection to occur (is sitting on a bus for 10 mins enough, sitting 2 tables away in a cafe, etc etc), an increasing disregard for the rules with far more house parties and groupings than in the first wave which are far more likely to be indoors as the weather has changed, I could go on all day.
Your criticism seems to imply that there is an easy or even difficult solution here that the government is wilfully ignoring. There isn't. There just isn't. So we need to muddle along as well as we can and pray for a vaccine. In that muddle many of the short term tactical decisions can be criticised, too late, too early, to severe, not severe enough but the reality is that we cannot operate as a society with this virus in our community anywhere like we did before without huge numbers of deaths and a complete crisis in the NHS. That is where we are and swearing at the government really doesn't change a thing.
Not at all. I think you're suffering from rose tinted glasses on this. The government has had an absolute shocker over basically everything.
The main failure is people who have the virus not isolating even after getting a positive test result. That's literally the number one thing that needs resolving, there are loads of ways to do it, the NZ method is central quarantine facilities, the Koreans use daily checks and GPS tracking on smartphones, the Australians use daily door knocks and phonecalls to landlines. We do nothing. We say "please don't go out, we trust you'll do the right thing" and people continue as normal.
Failure number two is waiting for the virus to come to us, we wait for people to develop symptoms and then request a test, by then they've been infectious for 4-6 days already and then another 2-4 days while awaiting their test result. Someone who has the virus could be infectious for up to 10 days in the UK before they get their positive result and then there is no system in place to prevent them from interacting with the wider community.
I'm not suggesting either of these are easy to resolve, only that they are possible and the current alternative of another lockdown is a disaster, economically, socially and for people's mental health. I've literally said previously that these are the kinds of policy decisions that require the government to make use of its 80 seat majority because they involve tough decisions like possible GPS tracking of people who have the virus, taking people's choices away on whether they should have to be tested, there is undoubtedly a huge loss of liberty for people in specific scenarios, however, the alternative is another lockdown which will serve no purpose.
Our regulations have required those who receive a positive test to self isolate for months now. I am sure the vast majority do very responsibly. It hasn't prevented a second wave.
And I have criticised many aspects of the government policy on this. I just have the self awareness to realise that shouting from the sidelines is a hell of a lot easier than trying to manage something like this with crap data and conflicting priorities.
You're wrong, they don't, 4/5 people who test positive don't fully isolate, 8/9 people asked to do so by local or national test and trace teams don't isolate either.
Your belief in people's honesty is naïve and the same thinking that has got us into this situation.
Seems to me there's no trust left to damage. Even Conservatives on here are sick of Johnson. Is there anyone left in the bunker other than HYUFD?
Remember when MothyMark took a break from pulling the head off it over pictures of Carrie to give the government a solid 'B+' on its handling of the pandemic. Seems like a different world.
They've done some things very well - testing, furloughs, support for business, sorting PPE.
But failures as well - the most imbecilic being the encouragement of foreign holidays.
Testing should left out of that list. Too much going wrong. And VAT on PPE hasn't a great look ATM.
Testing seems to be going great - massive capacity and people getting a test within hours and the results a day later.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
The W-V graph was reported infections starting at 3,105 on 15/09/20 and doubling every week.
I don't mean to be funny, but in these exceptional circumstances waiting 3 days juat to stick to parliamentary procedure, while people will go on the yet another final lash over the weekend is stupid.
With this pandemic, you have to meet, decide, implement, straight away. Not meet, wait 3 days to announce, then 3 days to implement. It was totally ridiculous all the negotiating over Manchester for 10 days. It should have been meeting, we heard you, this is the deal, Tier 3 next day.
Yes we can say the government should have acted sooner or whatever, but we are where we are and Boris needs to get out now and get on with it.
The one and only invariant of the BoZo regime has been, presented with a bad choice or a worse choice, he has inevitably selected the worst choice.
How do they know....they don't...its intellectually dishonest and totally playing politics.
Let's not forget that this time last weekend the Welsh government were hinting at exactly the opposite, and that there could be rolling "firebreakers". Johnson's government is absolutely shambolic at handling the pandemic, but the Scottish and Welsh governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory over the last few months.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Is it not the case that R is growing in the midlands and south now though? So I guess either they introduce Tier 2 or 3 in those regions or a national LD?
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
Was it Imperial College who claimed that infections were doubling in London every 3.3 days with an R of 2.86.
For that to happen mask wearing and home working must have stopped plus Arsenal and Spurs playing to full crowds.
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
What you are seeing, I think, is that the entire political class is detaching from reality. It happens from time to time, but this is the most serious one, I can recall.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
Good strap line for SKS: Come with me if you want to live.
The Terminator versus The Sperminator.
Johnson's version: Live with me if you want to come.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with research that are based on surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it, just when surveyed people say well i went out for food...nobody remembers all the other boring stuff they did, if their mates popped round for an hour etc.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
How do they know....they don't...its intellectually dishonest and totally playing politics.
Let's not forget that this time last weekend the Welsh government were hinting at exactly the opposite, and that there could be rolling "firebreakers". Johnson's government is absolutely shambolic at handling the pandemic, but the Scottish and Welsh governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory over the last few months.
I don't think many Govt's have covered themselves with glory, except possibly the S Koreans, Taiwanese and, strangely, the Thais. AIUI, almost no cases now. One of the actions. they took, as well as lockdown, was to freeze the border. No-one out, no-one in without quarantine. If Thai residents left they had to quarantine in approved hotels etc when they returned. Then they gave Thai's a subsidy to go on holiday IN THAILAND.
Well they will prove to be wrong about that. And in fairly short order.
Hostage to fortune and contrary to yesterday when Drakeford said new Wales wide restrictions will come into force on the 9th November
It's just stupid. Any and every government will have to react to the situation that they face. Which is currently an unknown. Which means that they cannot provide the certainty that everyone seems to be demanding of them (absurdly). Which means that this assurance is worth nothing and is dishonest.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
I don't mean to be funny, but in these exceptional circumstances waiting 3 days juat to stick to parliamentary procedure, while people will go on the yet another final lash over the weekend is stupid.
With this pandemic, you have to meet, decide, implement, straight away. Not meet, wait 3 days to announce, then 3 days to implement. It was totally ridiculous all the negotiating over Manchester for 10 days. It should have been meeting, we heard you, this is the deal, Tier 3 next day.
Yes we can say the government should have acted sooner or whatever, but we are where we are and Boris needs to get out now and get on with it.
I disagree. Giving Parliament and local leaders the opportunity to properly debate and discuss the way forward, is absolutely essential.
Boris has lost me over a series of avoidable errors starting with the non sacking of Cummings, the farce around Williamson and the exam chaos, the absolute idiotic idea that he could not agree with Marcus Rashford's campaign, an own goal of poll tax proportions, and also his toxic relationship with Scotland
However, on covid he shares an instinct with most conservatives that he does not want to interfere with peoples freedoms and is very obviously determined to prevent, wherever possible, a deeper economic armageddon than we are already facing.
The critics attack eat out to help out but as has been pointed out the pandemic is raging across Europe who did not have these schemes and of course the test and trace of 500,000 tests a day is up there with Germany and, apart from the southern hemisphere, I cannot identify any country that has a test and trace system that is coping today (even Germany has been overwhelmed)
The public are overwhelmingly for a lockdown but the idea a two week circuit breaker would ever do the trick has become widely believed. Drakeford announced yesterday that on the 9th November new Wales wide restrictions will be put in place and nobody expects it will be much different than today's fire-breaker
In truth we are in a crisis that is going to create enormous resentment over the coming years and great financial pain for most everybody. The divide today is between the public sector, local authority and pensioners who have all continued to receive their incomes, pension protections and so far the pensioners triple lock. On the other side is the annihilation of private sector jobs and futures which in case it is not recognised is where the vast amount of revenue comes from to pay for the public sector, pensions and benefits
I hope the back benchers and especially the new red wall group take action to replace Boris as soon as possible but of course it is not going to happen before the end of transition on the 31st December and I just hope a deal, any deal, can be agree with the EU
And finally I congratulate Keir Starmer on suspending Corbyn and expect more need to follow. He has every chance of being PM in 2024 under the present political trajectory unless he relents and lets Corbyn back in and Boris is not replaced
Just one point there was no need to subsidies eating out in mainland Europe as people were doing so anyway
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
The W-V graph was reported infections starting at 3,105 on 15/09/20 and doubling every week.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
How do they know....they don't...its intellectually dishonest and totally playing politics.
Let's not forget that this time last weekend the Welsh government were hinting at exactly the opposite, and that there could be rolling "firebreakers". Johnson's government is absolutely shambolic at handling the pandemic, but the Scottish and Welsh governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory over the last few months.
It is has been a historic failure of almost all of Europe, certainly Western Europe (as compared to East Asia).
It really feels like a monumental epoch in the history of the world --- with power, competence & influence shifting irrevocably to the East.
It is our Second World War. At a personal level, it is a major disruption of our lives for 4-5 years. At an international level, Europe will emerge weaker, broken and exhausted.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Is it not the case that R is growing in the midlands and south now though? So I guess either they introduce Tier 2 or 3 in those regions or a national LD?
Yep, these are pretty much the choices. We can resist a national lockdown by having regional lockdowns at tier 3 everywhere. Those who have lower infections and are at a lower tier catch up because the lower tiers generate a R rate significantly more than 1.
The sad truth is that we cannot stop this virus growing with less than tier 3 restrictions. Which is pretty disastrous economically.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with research that are based on surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it, just when surveyed people say well i went out for food...nobody remembers all the other boring stuff they did, if their mates popped round for an hour etc.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The biggest problem with the scheme was that a substantial minority heard this message
Its all over. Party.
Doesn't matter how many infections it directly caused. That was the impression taken. People reasonably assumed if the government was paying you to eat out, why not meet all your mates?
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Is it not the case that R is growing in the midlands and south now though? So I guess either they introduce Tier 2 or 3 in those regions or a national LD?
I think the focus on the R value as if it were semi-constant can be quite misleading. The more infectious people there are at any one time, the greater the potential for super-spreader events which cause R to spike. A situation that looks like it's under control can rapidly spiral out of control.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Those who fought so vociferously for airports and travel to remain open, starting with Grant Shapps, are going to be found to be responsible for even more deaths than those who kicked infected patients out of hospital beds and into retirement homes.
How do they know....they don't...its intellectually dishonest and totally playing politics.
Let's not forget that this time last weekend the Welsh government were hinting at exactly the opposite, and that there could be rolling "firebreakers". Johnson's government is absolutely shambolic at handling the pandemic, but the Scottish and Welsh governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory over the last few months.
I don't think many Govt's have covered themselves with glory, except possibly the S Koreans, Taiwanese and, strangely, the Thais. AIUI, almost no cases now. One of the actions. they took, as well as lockdown, was to freeze the border. No-one out, no-one in without quarantine. If Thai residents left they had to quarantine in approved hotels etc when they returned. Then they gave Thai's a subsidy to go on holiday IN THAILAND.
Tbf. A domestic holiday is rather more appealing if you are Thai. I heard many discovered to their amazement that Phuket had a gorgeous beach...
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Those who fought so vociferously for airports and travel to remain open, starting with Grant Shapps, are going to be found to be responsible for even more deaths than those who kicked infected patients out of hospital beds and into retirement homes.
The airbridge idea was absolute moron level thinking. By the time you know a country has a problem, especially as many have very poor testing, its way too late. And from the public point of view, you never know if and when you holiday might be on or off.
Is Scotland performing better than England? It would be reassuring to me if it were, as I will soon be returning to Scotland after eight months in Ireland.
Deaths seem like the most reliable measure, as case numbers will depend on testing rates. Taking the seven day period centred on 23rd October, we get these figures.
Scotland - 116 deaths - 2.1 deaths per 100k England - 1220 deaths - 2.2 deaths per 100k
The Scottish figure is certainly lower than the English figure, but not by enough to signify any practical difference. For the sake of completeness, these are the figures for Northern Ireland and Wales
Wales - 89 deaths - 2.8 deaths per 100k Northern Ireland - 43 deaths - 2.3 deaths per 100k
It is, perhaps, not surprising that Drakeford imposed his "firebreak" before the rest of the UK.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Its incredible.
The media were obsessing about Bournemouth beach while the virus was being brought from Benidorm.
They've got to the get the fat hunchbacked fuck out of the fridge first.
With BJ (aka the fat hunchbacked fuck) Churchillian ambition, cash and cooze seem to be the main motivating factors. Perhaps a naked violinist in a Winston mask holding a sack of money might tempt him out.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Is it not the case that R is growing in the midlands and south now though? So I guess either they introduce Tier 2 or 3 in those regions or a national LD?
Yep, these are pretty much the choices. We can resist a national lockdown by having regional lockdowns at tier 3 everywhere. Those who have lower infections and are at a lower tier catch up because the lower tiers generate a R rate significantly more than 1.
The sad truth is that we cannot stop this virus growing with less than tier 3 restrictions. Which is pretty disastrous economically.
Tentative evidence (6 weeks) from the NE suggests Tier 2 was adequate. What isn't known is why this worked in NE and not NW? My view is because the councils moved as one and made it a big enough area to succeed. No nipping down the road to the next borough.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Its incredible.
The media were obsessing about Bournemouth beach while the virus was being brought from Benidorm.
Even now the focus is on help out to eat out, pubs closing at 10pm causing everybody to leave at the same time, is 6 too many / too few, should it include kids or not etc.
When the massive elephant in the room, is the millions who went on a foreign summer holdiay.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Its incredible.
The media were obsessing about Bournemouth beach while the virus was being brought from Benidorm.
Also obsessing over where you can still go on holiday too.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
Was it Imperial College who claimed that infections were doubling in London every 3.3 days with an R of 2.86.
For that to happen mask wearing and home working must have stopped plus Arsenal and Spurs playing to full crowds.
Yes, the REACT 1 study, but with Confidence Intervals of 1.47 to 4.87, so may just be doubling every 7 days or so.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Is it not the case that R is growing in the midlands and south now though? So I guess either they introduce Tier 2 or 3 in those regions or a national LD?
Yep, these are pretty much the choices. We can resist a national lockdown by having regional lockdowns at tier 3 everywhere. Those who have lower infections and are at a lower tier catch up because the lower tiers generate a R rate significantly more than 1.
The sad truth is that we cannot stop this virus growing with less than tier 3 restrictions. Which is pretty disastrous economically.
Tentative evidence (6 weeks) from the NE suggests Tier 2 was adequate. What isn't known is why this worked in NE and not NW? My view is because the councils moved as one and made it a big enough area to succeed. No nipping down the road to the next borough.
I noticed that you Northumbrians stopped complaining after the first week!
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Its incredible.
The media were obsessing about Bournemouth beach while the virus was being brought from Benidorm.
Also obsessing over where you can still go on holiday too.
Is simon calder still telling people where all the bargain spots to go away for the winter are?
A Ghanaian friend commented that the Chinese had managed to achieve the level of hatred in Africa in a decade that it took the British etc hundreds of years to get to.
I'm impressed that your Ghanian friend is able to speak for the whole of, er, Africa.
They have planes in Africa now. Also phones. Internet to.
He was, of course commenting on Ghana and the surrounding countries. And you get the same message from other Africans.
The media concentration on help out to eat out is the equivalent of the huge focus on events like Cheltenham...it probably did, but isn't the major driving factor and if people didn't do that, would they have still caught it via other normal behaviour that hard for the government to have stopped at the time e.g. meals at friends homes instead.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
The latest version was imported from Spain, right? They should take advantage of being out of the EU and just close the borders. Suspect it is more difficult inside with Schengen and everything.
The research based on the genome is 80% of cases...its Italy ski holidays all over again.
Those who fought so vociferously for airports and travel to remain open, starting with Grant Shapps, are going to be found to be responsible for even more deaths than those who kicked infected patients out of hospital beds and into retirement homes.
Dennis Bergkamp would make an ideal transport minister.
How do they know....they don't...its intellectually dishonest and totally playing politics.
Let's not forget that this time last weekend the Welsh government were hinting at exactly the opposite, and that there could be rolling "firebreakers". Johnson's government is absolutely shambolic at handling the pandemic, but the Scottish and Welsh governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory over the last few months.
It is has been a historic failure of almost all of Europe, certainly Western Europe (as compared to East Asia).
It really feels like a monumental epoch in the history of the world --- with power, competence & influence shifting irrevocably to the East.
It is our Second World War. At a personal level, it is a major disruption of our lives for 4-5 years. At an international level, Europe will emerge weaker, broken and exhausted.
One one level, accepting this is a once in a lifetime horrible thing (let it be so) is useful at giving us perspective.
But it's likely that the damage, death rate, debt and duration will be tiny in comparison. And we've largely fluffed it.
This ain't, with a few exceptions, our finest hour.
How do they know....they don't...its intellectually dishonest and totally playing politics.
Let's not forget that this time last weekend the Welsh government were hinting at exactly the opposite, and that there could be rolling "firebreakers". Johnson's government is absolutely shambolic at handling the pandemic, but the Scottish and Welsh governments haven't exactly covered themselves in glory over the last few months.
I don't think many Govt's have covered themselves with glory, except possibly the S Koreans, Taiwanese and, strangely, the Thais. AIUI, almost no cases now. One of the actions. they took, as well as lockdown, was to freeze the border. No-one out, no-one in without quarantine. If Thai residents left they had to quarantine in approved hotels etc when they returned. Then they gave Thai's a subsidy to go on holiday IN THAILAND.
Tbf. A domestic holiday is rather more appealing if you are Thai. I heard many discovered to their amazement that Phuket had a gorgeous beach...
Effectively closing Pattaya quickly cleaned up the coast along the North rim of the Gulf, too.
Nobody can actually say yet if the Welsh lockdown "worked". Nor in fact whether the Tier system is "working". They haven't been in place long enough to feed into the data that the scientists are working with.
All the data given to the Government in recent days basically predates the Tier system. When they say it isn't working that comes out of a belief that it wouldn't work that they stated 2-3 weeks ago. But it's not based on any new data. We do know that the official Govt "R" numbers are falling. But this inconvienient statistic is ignored.
And as the Govt scientists control the data, they can make it say whatever they want.
I am guessing that what has forced their hand is that SAGE produced a model of how the whole winter would pan out and that the data so far is exceeding this.
What I am finding strange is that the number of reported cases is a small proportion of the "not a projection" chart, 10% according to @another_richard . Given that how can it be that the results are "worse" than the model? Does this mean that the model underestimated the level of hospitalisations by more than an order of magnitude? If so, how on earth can we have confidence in it?
Sage were warning that the number of cases would be doubling every week, when the rate of increase is nothing like as rapid as that. The R number nationally has come down in the past week to 1.1. to 1.3. The introduction of Tier 2 in the North East and Tier 3 in Merseyside appears to be working as intended. The government is being panicked into taking a really damaging decision, on the basis that "something must be done."
I have sympathy for this argument until you look over the channel and see France, which was about 2 weeks earlier than us into this second wave and has done many very similar things with 49k cases yesterday (and over 500 deaths). I think the government is right to be apprehensive that is us in 2 weeks.
Is it not the case that R is growing in the midlands and south now though? So I guess either they introduce Tier 2 or 3 in those regions or a national LD?
Yep, these are pretty much the choices. We can resist a national lockdown by having regional lockdowns at tier 3 everywhere. Those who have lower infections and are at a lower tier catch up because the lower tiers generate a R rate significantly more than 1.
The sad truth is that we cannot stop this virus growing with less than tier 3 restrictions. Which is pretty disastrous economically.
Tentative evidence (6 weeks) from the NE suggests Tier 2 was adequate. What isn't known is why this worked in NE and not NW? My view is because the councils moved as one and made it a big enough area to succeed. No nipping down the road to the next borough.
The UK is such a small place making local restrictions difficult to make work. But the NW around Manchester, you can't make it work by restricting Wigan and not Bolton. The attempt to micro-target towns is never going to work, there is far too much inconnectivity between all of them.
Don't see that. Tough decisions is what an 80 seat majority is for. Not sure of the polling but the Welsh experience suggests it won't be wildly unpopular. And I don't perceive a truly credible alternative plan readily available from opponents.
What you are seeing, I think, is that the entire political class is detaching from reality. It happens from time to time, but this is the most serious one, I can recall.
The problem is that there are no answers. The second wave is coming for just about every European country - and many others around the world.
That there is no "simple policy answer" creates a "does not compute" among the political class. To date every problem has a political answer. The answer may just involve showing the problem under the bed and stepping on it if it tries to get out (drugs policy, for example).
COVID isn't amenable to being swept under the bed. Or fixed. Or fitted. Or reasoned with.
Good strap line for SKS: Come with me if you want to live.
The Terminator versus The Sperminator.
Johnson's version: Live with me if you want to come.
The government's fatal flaw - seen across much of Europe - has been propagating for too long the message that things could return to normal with minimal change to behaviour. "Eat out in restaurants, not takeaway", "go back to the office to help Pret", "save the travel industry", "back to normal by Christmas". It was all incredibly short sighted and has now backfired.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
100%...I think it comes down to the behavioural insight people continuing saying thar people won't stick to restrictions for more than a few weeks, so the messaging has always been please just stick with this for a month, then it will be good. Do lockdown, you can have you summer hols. Stick to Tiers, you can have Christmas. We will have a vaccine in September, October, Christmas, Spring...
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I think its impossible to make the young stick to restrictions now they know they're not at risk.
Comments
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1322475320344195072
The main failure is people who have the virus not isolating even after getting a positive test result. That's literally the number one thing that needs resolving, there are loads of ways to do it, the NZ method is central quarantine facilities, the Koreans use daily checks and GPS tracking on smartphones, the Australians use daily door knocks and phonecalls to landlines. We do nothing. We say "please don't go out, we trust you'll do the right thing" and people continue as normal.
Failure number two is waiting for the virus to come to us, we wait for people to develop symptoms and then request a test, by then they've been infectious for 4-6 days already and then another 2-4 days while awaiting their test result. Someone who has the virus could be infectious for up to 10 days in the UK before they get their positive result and then there is no system in place to prevent them from interacting with the wider community.
I'm not suggesting either of these are easy to resolve, only that they are possible and the current alternative of another lockdown is a disaster, economically, socially and for people's mental health. I've literally said previously that these are the kinds of policy decisions that require the government to make use of its 80 seat majority because they involve tough decisions like possible GPS tracking of people who have the virus, taking people's choices away on whether they should have to be tested, there is undoubtedly a huge loss of liberty for people in specific scenarios, however, the alternative is another lockdown which will serve no purpose.
https://twitter.com/1bobcohn/status/1322273471980883973
Just how high and how majestically will he clear the towering bar set?
We can only gaze in admiration and awe and feel a little humbled by the spectacle it is our privilege to witness.
Ants and grasshoppers.
However, on covid he shares an instinct with most conservatives that he does not want to interfere with peoples freedoms and is very obviously determined to prevent, wherever possible, a deeper economic armageddon than we are already facing.
The critics attack eat out to help out but as has been pointed out the pandemic is raging across Europe who did not have these schemes and of course the test and trace of 500,000 tests a day is up there with Germany and, apart from the southern hemisphere, I cannot identify any country that has a test and trace system that is coping today (even Germany has been overwhelmed)
The public are overwhelmingly for a lockdown but the idea a two week circuit breaker would ever do the trick has become widely believed. Drakeford announced yesterday that on the 9th November new Wales wide restrictions will be put in place and nobody expects it will be much different than today's fire-breaker
In truth we are in a crisis that is going to create enormous resentment over the coming years and great financial pain for most everybody. The divide today is between the public sector, local authority and pensioners who have all continued to receive their incomes, pension protections and so far the pensioners triple lock. On the other side is the annihilation of private sector jobs and futures which in case it is not recognised is where the vast amount of revenue comes from to pay for the public sector, pensions and benefits
I hope the back benchers and especially the new red wall group take action to replace Boris as soon as possible but of course it is not going to happen before the end of transition on the 31st December and I just hope a deal, any deal, can be agree with the EU
And finally I congratulate Keir Starmer on suspending Corbyn and expect more need to follow. He has every chance of being PM in 2024 under the present political trajectory unless he relents and lets Corbyn back in and Boris is not replaced
re #3 what if we never get an effective vaccine?
No shit Sherlock.
That £10 is going to cost £000's
The public can't keep up and businesses can't survive either, you just give false hope.
Cardiff Airport is open, We are allowed to travel to the Airport right now, even if we have to travel > x miles from home.
https://www.cardiff-airport.com/live-flight-information/arrivals/
Not hugely busy .. but then Cardiff Airport never is.
With this pandemic, you have to meet, decide, implement, straight away. Not meet, wait 3 days to announce, then 3 days to implement. It was totally ridiculous all the negotiating over Manchester for 10 days. It should have been meeting, we heard you, this is the deal, Tier 3 next day.
Yes we can say the government should have acted sooner or whatever, but we are where we are and Boris needs to get out now and get on with it.
And I have criticised many aspects of the government policy on this. I just have the self awareness to realise that shouting from the sidelines is a hell of a lot easier than trying to manage something like this with crap data and conflicting priorities.
15/09/20 3,105
22/09/20 6,210
29/09/20 12,420
06/10/20 24,840
13/10/20 48,960
20/10/20 97,920
27/10/20 195,840
Actual reported infections yesterday were 24,405.
So by the W-V graph the tier system has been a great success.
Your belief in people's honesty is naïve and the same thinking that has got us into this situation.
Or perhaps something which ended in August didn't have any effect on infections in October.
For that to happen mask wearing and home working must have stopped plus Arsenal and Spurs playing to full crowds.
The major factor in causing the 2nd wave is the summer holiday season and why we now see COVID everywhere across Europe, even countries who didn't see much in March. And this was totally preventable.
Also the reason help out to eat out is getting blamed is not from actual proof, it is all to do with research that are based on surveys asking people what they did in the days before catching it. We don't have the SK level of contact tracing to be able to show where you actually got it, just when surveyed people say well i went out for food...nobody remembers all the other boring stuff they did, if their mates popped round for an hour etc.
A bigger problem with the scheme is, that it probably didn't actually help restaurants as it just shifted demand to the week.
It is this, combined with an inadequate track and trace system back when case numbers were more manageable, which has resulted in the lockdown we are facing.
Why there's a difference and whether that might change we don't know.
It is has been a historic failure of almost all of Europe, certainly Western Europe (as compared to East Asia).
It really feels like a monumental epoch in the history of the world --- with power, competence & influence shifting irrevocably to the East.
It is our Second World War. At a personal level, it is a major disruption of our lives for 4-5 years. At an international level, Europe will emerge weaker, broken and exhausted.
The sad truth is that we cannot stop this virus growing with less than tier 3 restrictions. Which is pretty disastrous economically.
Its all over. Party.
Doesn't matter how many infections it directly caused. That was the impression taken.
People reasonably assumed if the government was paying you to eat out, why not meet all your mates?
In reality, the Swedish message from the start has been the honest one. We are stukck with this for at least 2 years, we need a new normal and you will have to learn to live with these restrictions throughout.
I heard many discovered to their amazement that Phuket had a gorgeous beach...
https://twitter.com/RobertCorp/status/1322515117003673600
Deaths seem like the most reliable measure, as case numbers will depend on testing rates. Taking the seven day period centred on 23rd October, we get these figures.
Scotland - 116 deaths - 2.1 deaths per 100k
England - 1220 deaths - 2.2 deaths per 100k
The Scottish figure is certainly lower than the English figure, but not by enough to signify any practical difference. For the sake of completeness, these are the figures for Northern Ireland and Wales
Wales - 89 deaths - 2.8 deaths per 100k
Northern Ireland - 43 deaths - 2.3 deaths per 100k
It is, perhaps, not surprising that Drakeford imposed his "firebreak" before the rest of the UK.
The media were obsessing about Bournemouth beach while the virus was being brought from Benidorm.
Stay at home, go out, stay at home.
Close pubs, open pubs, close pubs.
Work from home, go back to your office, work from home
Dont eat out, Eat out to help out, Dont eat out.
Dont go to hospital for routine appointment, Go, Dont go
Sing happy birthday but dont wear a mask, wear a mask
2020 is going to be a great year, over in 6 weeks, over by Christmas, save Christmas, forget Christmas.
Dont see your Mum, See her in the garden, Go out for a cheap meal with your Mum to help out, Dont see your Mum even on Christmas day.
3 Cheers for the Government
OO7 has gone.
What isn't known is why this worked in NE and not NW?
My view is because the councils moved as one and made it a big enough area to succeed.
No nipping down the road to the next borough.
When the massive elephant in the room, is the millions who went on a foreign summer holdiay.
He was, of course commenting on Ghana and the surrounding countries. And you get the same message from other Africans.
But it's likely that the damage, death rate, debt and duration will be tiny in comparison. And we've largely fluffed it.
This ain't, with a few exceptions, our finest hour.