Very close to mine, but now I am thinking FL will flip, and IA too, so have them Blue. If TX and OH go too as is quite possible, it's a landslide.
I'd love that scenario but think that would be too blissful, for me all of those 4 will stay with Trump though I could see FL flipping if any of those do.
A funicular of Friday polling as the last hours of the 2020 US election campaigns approach.
Plenty of coverage of the Trafalgar polling which seems aimed more at trying to convince Trump supporters and conservatives they are still in with a chance.
We can probably expect a deluge of late Trafalgar/Susquehanna/Insider Advantage polls to try and convince us all the race is tightening and to pull down the Biden lead averages.
For the record, IBD/TIPP has Biden leading 51-45.
A Marist poll for NBC News has Biden up 52-46 in North Carolina - his biggest lead - and on that basis I've moved NC into the Blue column so it's 329-163 for Biden with 46 TCTC (Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Nevada).
Marist rated A+. That is a very good poll for Biden.
Looking at Ralston's blog on NV, it will be close. The Clark firewall is at 76K and Ralston thinks it needs to be 84K to make NV safe. The GOP took a chunk out of the Dem lead in Washoe. and it looks like Trump's lead in the Rurals will be bigly. Plus NV sent a mail ballot to everyone.
But if you want to bet that a NV election is entirely clean....
I read his blogs a lot and couple of things,, firstly though he knows his stuff , he also likes to build a narrative and also attract attention and donations to the Nev Independant. He also isnt going to oversell how the Dems are doing to suppress any potential voters into feeling over confident. If you check the tables on his blog it sets out clearly about how the 'firewall' works and the permutations of what will happen in Clarke and Washoe in various situations in the run in, including best case scenarios for Trump, In every case the Dems still win. Trumps not winning Nevada and he knows it, hence his talk of fraud,,,,,,,again https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
He is creating narrative to explain losing the election. Typical for Trumpsky AND certainly NOT a sign of confidence.
Agreed. He is firing up his base for the aftermath, voter fraud, bunkering down in the WH, its all pointing to a total mess,
Not quite. Doubt that it's going to get that far, at least when all the votes are counted. By that point will be clear he's really - not just prospectively - toast.
AND his loyal legions will have better things to worry about. Such as going to clinics, hospitals, funerals and cemetaries.
Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).
Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.
The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.
Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:
Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet. SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune. Jewish community as the one it is done for. The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.
There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
Hang on though. If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him. And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
Different things to different people.
He's a skilled cartoonist .
I bet he knows the story very well too - grammar school boy in the 1960s.
(In Slough - wonder if he likes Betjeman, who wrote the Friendly Bombs poem in 1937.)
I think people are seeing the figures going up (however they are being presented), they also see other countries like France and Germany taking actions. I think even if its not as bad (yet) as the first wave, people are starting to get nervous and feel the current measures aren't working. I'm not saying thats right but I can understand why this poll reflects that. I dont think a two week 'breaker' will fix anything personally its longer or not at all. But the mood is changing nationally from a month or two ago.
Agreed. He is firing up his base for the aftermath, voter fraud, bunkering down in the WH, its all pointing to a total mess,
I think this election may well be remembered more for its body count than for the margin of victory. I hope I'm wrong.
Strangely enough, I don't think so. I suspect the outcome will be clear on the night and Trump will be on the wrong side of it and while he will remain President until Biden's Inauguration in January, the power and authority will be ebbing away and especially if the Democrats take the Senate as well.
Of course, Trump can and probably personally will frustrate the Transition process but elements in his administration will hopefully ensure the Biden team doesn't inherit a "Scorched Earth" in the West Wing. That said, those closest to Trump are probably already working on their memoirs and they will be required reading during 2021 as the detail of what went on in the Trump White House comes out.
One thing that will help is IF the Democrats win the Senate, a stimulus bill will be swiftly passed (unless Trump decides to veto it in early January) which will buoy the markets.
Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).
Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.
The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.
Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:
Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet. SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune. Jewish community as the one it is done for. The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.
There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
Hang on though. If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him. And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
But Starmer is Herod surely?
Presumably it is Marcus Rashford who is the Messiah.
"Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"
The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave
Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
Tier 2 allows people to meet in gardens. Tier 3 doesn't. At this time of year is that really a big differentiator?
People’s stamina and the government’s credibility are well shot beyond the point where the minutiae in policy differences between the tiers is making any difference. All that matters is the psychological effect of the tier announcements on people’s behaviour within the local areas.
Where i am (Richmond) impression is that pub gardens are still doing a roaring business, so a lot of people are taking the rules on board. Published 7 day figures are coming down.
Richmond Surrey? It's a bit warmer down south. Northerners like to claim how hard they are, but when it's a bit nesh I suspect they still cluster together indoors
I'm wondering if this Solidarity for Corbyn rally will mean that SKS has to suspend some more people including MPs, given that he said that being 'in denial' Corbyn-style is not acceptable (if I heard him correctly)?
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
I'm wondering if this Solidarity for Corbyn rally will mean that SKS has to suspend some more people including MPs, given that he said that being 'in denial' Corbyn-style is not acceptable (if I heard him correctly)?
Depends how many say he should be restored to the whip, or in general terms say his comments were not suspension worthy, and how many actually say 'He is right, it was all exaggerated' (which they can pretend is not about dismissing the recommendations, but is fooling no one).
Agreed. He is firing up his base for the aftermath, voter fraud, bunkering down in the WH, its all pointing to a total mess,
I think this election may well be remembered more for its body count than for the margin of victory. I hope I'm wrong.
Strangely enough, I don't think so. I suspect the outcome will be clear on the night and Trump will be on the wrong side of it and while he will remain President until Biden's Inauguration in January, the power and authority will be ebbing away and especially if the Democrats take the Senate as well.
Of course, Trump can and probably personally will frustrate the Transition process but elements in his administration will hopefully ensure the Biden team doesn't inherit a "Scorched Earth" in the West Wing. That said, those closest to Trump are probably already working on their memoirs and they will be required reading during 2021 as the detail of what went on in the Trump White House comes out.
One thing that will help is IF the Democrats win the Senate, a stimulus bill will be swiftly passed (unless Trump decides to veto it in early January) which will buoy the markets.
Interesting how Trumpsky keeps re-enacting the last months of the Hoover Administration for a 21st-century audience.
Note that after he lost the 1932 election to Franklin Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover attempted to get FDR to pledge that he would support Hoover's policies re: economic recovery (less than a success to that point, to put it mildly) and pledge to continue them as president. FDR said thanks, but no thanks.
In early 1933, Hoover's concern, however arrogant, misguided and short-sided his perspective was the future of the country. Whereas Trumpsky's in early 2021 will be exclusively ME, ME, ME!
I've read that he doesn't care if people beleive any of this, just that it is important to confuse and enrage people by throwing out as many wild ideas as possible. I can beleive it.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
It seems to me that the argument is that people will only listen if it's a national lockdown. That might be right, but I think there's a decent chance that people will just ignore it. Businesses, of course, are another matter entirely.
Of course people support a "short sharp circuit breaker". It sounds so enticing. Especially when presented as a cast iron guarantee to opening everything up at the end of it. Don't mention that even SAGE aren't recommending this any more.
"Short" - good "Sharp" - good "Circuit breaker" (ie. avoiding a lockdown) - good.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
It seems to me that the argument is that people will only listen if it's a national lockdown. That might be right, but I think there's a decent chance that people will just ignore it. Businesses, of course, are another matter entirely.
I'm skeptical about the efficacy of regional lockdowns, especially in a country like this one, but I just suspect that if you ask people 'Do you want to try X?' they'll almost certainly say yes, particularly if others have done it first.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
Interesting thing (mentioned in the article) is that a plurality of Conservative voters support the circuit breaker. Boris really does have a decision to make here. And whatever he does will annoy a large part of his base.
Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).
Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.
The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.
Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:
Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet. SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune. Jewish community as the one it is done for. The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.
There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
Hang on though. If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him. And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
But Starmer is Herod surely?
Presumably it is Marcus Rashford who is the Messiah.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
Interesting thing (mentioned in the article) is that a plurality of Conservative voters support the circuit breaker. Boris really does have a decision to make here. And whatever he does will annoy a large part of his base.
Of course people support a "short sharp circuit breaker". It sounds so enticing. Especially when presented as a cast iron guarantee to opening everything up at the end of it. Don't mention that even SAGE aren't recommending this any more.
"Short" - good "Sharp" - good "Circuit breaker" (ie. avoiding a lockdown) - good.
Which won't happen.
A two week circuit breaker would have to be extremely harsh to have any effect. No-one go anywhere. It won't happen. Personally I think we need to continue with whack-a-mole and ride the storm. Apparently 40,000 people die in a normal November. Just for comparison purposes.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
Interesting thing (mentioned in the article) is that a plurality of Conservative voters support the circuit breaker. Boris really does have a decision to make here. And whatever he does will annoy a large part of his base.
The problem is that it won't just be a circuit breaker.
Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).
Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.
The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.
Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:
Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet. SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune. Jewish community as the one it is done for. The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.
There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
Hang on though. If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him. And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
But Starmer is Herod surely?
Presumably it is Marcus Rashford who is the Messiah.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
It seems to me that the argument is that people will only listen if it's a national lockdown. That might be right, but I think there's a decent chance that people will just ignore it. Businesses, of course, are another matter entirely.
I'm skeptical about the efficacy of regional lockdowns, especially in a country like this one, but I just suspect that if you ask people 'Do you want to try X?' they'll almost certainly say yes, particularly if others have done it first.
The problem is there isn’t a solution, focus on treatment to keep icu moving and then hope for a vaccine, if you are concerned take the necessary steps to make your life acceptable, stress to the rest that safety measures, masks distancing etc are in their own interests but otherwise carry on. I would leave the theaters and night clubs shut, not sure about sports events but remember at the moment there is no solution that will endure.
If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?
What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).
Didn't they claim that new infections in London were doubling every 3.3 days ?
Which is a quadrupling every week.
There's zero evidence of that on the daily published data.
I don't know how we can usefully contribute an opinion on the subject. Obviously we cannot just unquestionably accept government pronouncements and decisions, but equally I question whether people responding whether they support or suppose any measure helps when most of us will not know enough about the current situation or impact of mitigation methods to make a judgement. So doesn't it just become a 'Should we do something?' poll?
It seems to me that the argument is that people will only listen if it's a national lockdown. That might be right, but I think there's a decent chance that people will just ignore it. Businesses, of course, are another matter entirely.
I'm skeptical about the efficacy of regional lockdowns, especially in a country like this one, but I just suspect that if you ask people 'Do you want to try X?' they'll almost certainly say yes, particularly if others have done it first.
The problem is there isn’t a solution, focus on treatment to keep icu moving and then hope for a vaccine, if you are concerned take the necessary steps to make your life acceptable, stress to the rest that safety measures, masks distancing etc are in their own interests but otherwise carry on. I would leave the theaters and night clubs shut, not sure about sports events but remember at the moment there is no solution that will endure.
There's probably a decent case for shutting the London Palladium...
Ok, because of the kerfuffle I ran the cartoon past a professional cartoonist, who incidentally hadn't seen it before and wasn't aware of the AS concerns.
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
That's about it for now. Gotta go eat. (I do hope this one dies the death.)
I've been looking closely at CD races as the "Shy Trump" crossover is less likely to show. It's clear there is a significant swing to the Dems in most races that is probably indicative of the swing to Biden.
Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).
Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.
The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.
Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:
Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet. SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune. Jewish community as the one it is done for. The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.
There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
Hang on though. If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him. And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
But Starmer is Herod surely?
Presumably it is Marcus Rashford who is the Messiah.
Nah. Starmer is Salome. A bit confused now.
Surely Corbyn is Yahya, the Islamic version of John (Mohammed meets him and JC in second heaven). Sir Keir Salome's people will be destroyed in revenge.
"Bewitched by her charm, he submitted to her monstrous request. John was executed and his head was brought to Salome. The cruel woman gloated with delight. But the death of Allah's beloved prophet was avenged. Not only she, but all the children of Israel were severely punished by invading armies which destroyed their kingdom." http://www.alim.org/library/biography/stories/content/SOP/5/28/Yahya (John)/John's Cruel Death
I've been looking closely at CD races as the "Shy Trump" crossover is less likely to show. It's clear there is a significant swing to the Dems in most races that is probably indicative of the swing to Biden.
The thing to watch out for in the CD polls is that they are all clustered on suburban seats - the ones we are pretty sure that Trump is doing badly in due to 2018
A funicular of Friday polling as the last hours of the 2020 US election campaigns approach.
Plenty of coverage of the Trafalgar polling which seems aimed more at trying to convince Trump supporters and conservatives they are still in with a chance.
We can probably expect a deluge of late Trafalgar/Susquehanna/Insider Advantage polls to try and convince us all the race is tightening and to pull down the Biden lead averages.
For the record, IBD/TIPP has Biden leading 51-45.
A Marist poll for NBC News has Biden up 52-46 in North Carolina - his biggest lead - and on that basis I've moved NC into the Blue column so it's 329-163 for Biden with 46 TCTC (Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Nevada).
Marist rated A+. That is a very good poll for Biden.
Great stuff. My analysis is extremely similar to yours. I have 334 for Biden with 79 TCTC. I have Nevada for Biden, and Texas TCTC (and to reconcile exactly ME2 TCTC, looks like you have it for Biden).
If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?
What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).
Didn't they claim that new infections in London were doubling every 3.3 days ?
Which is a quadrupling every week.
There's zero evidence of that on the daily published data.
The various studies of the virus are showing that the real infection rate is growing far faster than the rate recorded by the main testing program.
They are working out the real infection rate by testing a random sample of the population and then applying poll style adjustments to make sure the results are representative.
I've been looking closely at CD races as the "Shy Trump" crossover is less likely to show. It's clear there is a significant swing to the Dems in most races that is probably indicative of the swing to Biden.
That one's particularly interesting because it's in FL, in a district with lots of older voters, and is recent (Oct 28th). And, as with other polls, you do have to wonder whether those Trump supporters are all actually going to get to vote. The poll has:
Already voted (73.7% of sample): Biden 61.5%, Trump 36.4% Plan to vote (26.3% of sample): Biden 32.9%, Trump 62.3%
Of course people support a "short sharp circuit breaker". It sounds so enticing. Especially when presented as a cast iron guarantee to opening everything up at the end of it. Don't mention that even SAGE aren't recommending this any more.
"Short" - good "Sharp" - good "Circuit breaker" (ie. avoiding a lockdown) - good.
Which won't happen.
We'll see the effectiveness of it in Wales in ten days.
Personally think that Steve Bell is artistically-gifted BUT about as funny as a rubber crutch.
IF he's unaware of the problematic subtext of his imagery (not what you'd call obscure) then he is either a) ignorant; or b) to dumb to do basic research; c) a bigot way down deep . . . or maybe not so far down . . .
I've been looking closely at CD races as the "Shy Trump" crossover is less likely to show. It's clear there is a significant swing to the Dems in most races that is probably indicative of the swing to Biden.
C Rated pollster I think by 538 but still interesting, If Trump is losing ground with the older voters like that across the state even with the gains he seems to be making with HIspanics it would make FL very close and might just tip it over blue
If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?
What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).
Didn't they claim that new infections in London were doubling every 3.3 days ?
Which is a quadrupling every week.
There's zero evidence of that on the daily published data.
The various studies of the virus are showing that the real infection rate is growing far faster than the rate recorded by the main testing program.
They are working out the real infection rate by testing a random sample of the population and then applying poll style adjustments to make sure the results are representative.
So they're saying that their testing samples are right and that the over 300k official tests per day are wrong ?
So where are all these extra cases ?
And do they give an estimate of the number of asymptomatic cases ?
That's an excellent thread at explaining it better than I did.
The thing is for all the people saying they're not sure it's anti-Semitic because they didn't get the reference ... Well Bell did get the reference. Bell knew what he was doing. He was deliberately portraying Corbyn as the John the Baptist sacrificed improperly. He was deliberately downplaying the EHRC report etc. And the Guardian printed it deliberately. Whether others get the reference or not.
Yes. But to a certain extent the GOP's own extensive efforts to register as GOP those who vote for it have started to unwind this effect. By how much we'll begin to see on Wednesday
Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).
Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.
The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.
Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:
Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet. SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune. Jewish community as the one it is done for. The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.
There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
Hang on though. If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him. And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
But Starmer is Herod surely?
Presumably it is Marcus Rashford who is the Messiah.
Nah. Starmer is Salome. A bit confused now.
So Dad dancing? Is that a TikTok thing?
It used to be that Boris was the trendy, with-it politico.
Now he's appears as dated as Benny Hill. Also less funny and lacking BH's gravitas.
If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?
What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).
Didn't they claim that new infections in London were doubling every 3.3 days ?
Which is a quadrupling every week.
There's zero evidence of that on the daily published data.
The various studies of the virus are showing that the real infection rate is growing far faster than the rate recorded by the main testing program.
They are working out the real infection rate by testing a random sample of the population and then applying poll style adjustments to make sure the results are representative.
So they're saying that their testing samples are right and that the over 300k official tests per day are wrong ?
So where are all these extra cases ?
And do they give an estimate of the number of asymptomatic cases ?
I'm just confused as to why the testing data barely seems to be picking it up at all. Something that isn't, incidentally happening in other countries - look at what has happened in Italy over the last couple of weeks for example.
The problem with the ONS vs testing data is that depending on your viewpoint it could be both scary or reassuring. Because the ONS data is always 2 weeks old so one point of view is that the testing is rapidly diverging and current numbers are very hidden. The other is that the ONS model projections are failing to recognise that things are slowing down - something which is evidenced by the testing data.
Yep, fair number of those registered Dems in that part of the world vote GOP at top of ticket. BUT current numbers are not BAD news for Biden.
Agreed - just pointing out that trying to interpret early voting figures by party registration is a mug’s game
100%. The problem with early voting numbers is we don't have anything else to fixate on. Not unlike exit polls, we find it hard not to give them more credence than they deserve as a result.
'Both Hoover and Trump viewed their respective crises as public relations problems that would go away with the right messaging. In early 1930, Hoover said the worst would be over in 60 days; at the end of May, he predicted that the economy would be back to normal by the fall; and in June, he told a delegation that had come to plead for a public works project, “Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The Depression is over.”'
That's an excellent thread at explaining it better than I did.
The thing is for all the people saying they're not sure it's anti-Semitic because they didn't get the reference ... Well Bell did get the reference. Bell knew what he was doing. He was deliberately portraying Corbyn as the John the Baptist sacrificed improperly. He was deliberately downplaying the EHRC report etc. And the Guardian printed it deliberately. Whether others get the reference or not.
It's a cartoon. I don't think it's very funny. It's in bad taste at best, and anti-semitic at worst. I suspect the Guardian editor should have pulled it before publication.
But I'm not sure that we can get quite so queasy about it when, as far as I can tell, the majority of us (PB or UK) defended the absolute right of Charlie Hebdo to publish their cartoons, which others certainly found offensive.
That's an excellent thread at explaining it better than I did.
The thing is for all the people saying they're not sure it's anti-Semitic because they didn't get the reference ... Well Bell did get the reference. Bell knew what he was doing. He was deliberately portraying Corbyn as the John the Baptist sacrificed improperly. He was deliberately downplaying the EHRC report etc. And the Guardian printed it deliberately. Whether others get the reference or not.
It's a cartoon. I don't think it's very funny. It's in bad taste at best, and anti-semitic at worst. I suspect the Guardian editor should have pulled it before publication.
But I'm not sure that we can get quite so queasy about it when, as far as I can tell, the majority of us (PB or UK) defended the absolute right of Charlie Hebdo to publish their cartoons, which others certainly found offensive.
If i had a fiver for every time the Guardian editor let a Steve Bell cartoon through that was both unfunny and offensive...
Brings back some memories. A sorting office running as it should is a wonderful sight. But as soon as mail starts coming in faster than it is going out, it is amazing how quickly the whole thing can turn to s**t.
Yep, fair number of those registered Dems in that part of the world vote GOP at top of ticket. BUT current numbers are not BAD news for Biden.
Agreed - just pointing out that trying to interpret early voting figures by party registration is a mug’s game
100%. The problem with early voting numbers is we don't have anything else to fixate on. Not unlike exit polls, we find it hard not to give them more credence than they deserve as a result.
Very good point.
Can testify from years of experience observing & analyzing ballot returns in WA State elections (we are all vote-by-mail every election) that you can and will drive yourself NUTS trying to make heads or tails out of the data.
Mostly because the playing field keeps changing.
For example, introduction of pre-paid postage for returned ballots starting in 2018.
For another, Trumpsky's war on USPS which has resulted in huge spike in drop-box versus postal returns.
Re turnout by affiliation: one definitely shouldn't read too much into it, but let me give you an example of where it can be helpful.
In 2008, Barack Obama won North Carolina. 73% of Registered Democrats voted as did 73% of Registered Republicans and 64% of Independents.
In 2016, President Trump won North Carolina. That year, 68% of Registered Democrats voted, and 75% of Registered Republicans.
In that case, the differential turnout was a really good indicator.
Today, 57% of Registered Democrats have voted in North Carolina, and 54% of Registered Republicans.
Of course, we don't know how Independents will break. And we don't know how much change there has been in the numbers of registered supporters of each party. Nevertheless, this split points to (at the very least) a much closer race than in 2016.
I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
To keep him on his toes and not come out with such shit rulings that were so wrong in fact.
Being acquitted in the Senate by a margin of a dozen votes would really give him a scare.
'Justice' Kavanaugh boils my piss in a way that only Mark Reckless did.
Perhaps, if the GOP do receive a good stuffing in the Senate, which is extended in the midterms, an impeachment of Kavanaugh could be part of a deal whereby the Democrats agree not to expand the Court and the GOP acknowledge that the Trump/McConnell double act went too far.
But I think the GOP are a long way from being in a compromising mood.
That's an excellent thread at explaining it better than I did.
The thing is for all the people saying they're not sure it's anti-Semitic because they didn't get the reference ... Well Bell did get the reference. Bell knew what he was doing. He was deliberately portraying Corbyn as the John the Baptist sacrificed improperly. He was deliberately downplaying the EHRC report etc. And the Guardian printed it deliberately. Whether others get the reference or not.
It's a cartoon. I don't think it's very funny. It's in bad taste at best, and anti-semitic at worst. I suspect the Guardian editor should have pulled it before publication.
But I'm not sure that we can get quite so queasy about it when, as far as I can tell, the majority of us (PB or UK) defended the absolute right of Charlie Hebdo to publish their cartoons, which others certainly found offensive.
The Guardian have the absolute right to publish offensive cartoons too. Whether as a supposedly antiracist newspaper they should ... And especially whether they should on the day the EHRC reported into anti-Semitism is another matter.
If the Guardian wants to be anti-Semitic that is their right. If the Guardian wants to play down anti-Semitism that is their right. But let's not here any more from the Guardian about the evils of racism if so.
Stock markets looking a bit sickly this evening. Particularly the US, which has furthest to fall.
Yep. Been a tough week for my stocks, but am sticking to them. Fairly defensive position, and I think Asia will recover quite well, and EZ figures not too bad for Q3.
One of the things that CV19 has taught us is that there are a whole lot of people out there who really aren't very bright.
I’d say it’s more that there’s a whole lot of people who can make themselves credulous and dumb when there’s something they desperately want to believe. And they can be unshakeable in their desperate belief.
And a bunch of arrogant ignorant loudmouths who happily leap to dole out misunderstood and garbled crap to those desperate denialists.
Who then have their denialism reinforced, providing a stronger audience for the loudmouths, and the cycle feeds back on itself.
Ok, because of the kerfuffle I ran the cartoon past a professional cartoonist, who incidentally hadn't seen it before and wasn't aware of the AS concerns.
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
Apart from there being no current lockdowns in England and any restrictions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland being imposed by the devolved governments.
I read the thread and have still no idea what is supposed to be so offensive about it.
Steve Bell is not an idiot. Quite the opposite. He's clever. I also think he's a dreadful cartoonist, hardly ever funny, but that's by the by.
The thing is Why, on this subject - Corbyn being expelled from Labour for anti-Jewish sentiment - would he choose to go for a story about Jews from the Bible, with a severed head (after recent Islamist beheadings of Christians???)
It beggars belief that he didn't see that it *could* very easily be perceived as offensive, grotesque and crass, and it is even more amazing that the editors didn't immediately scratch it, and say Do something else
Again it speaks to a kind of blindspot, or a wilful stupidity, on this subject. The Guardian is left wing and righteous so it can do no wrong and is never offensive? Well, sorry, it bloody well can, and it was.
Ok, because of the kerfuffle I ran the cartoon past a professional cartoonist, who incidentally hadn't seen it before and wasn't aware of the AS concerns.
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
The problem is that Bell has previous. Therefore I'm assuming that he's on Jezza's side and very much means to cause offence.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1322177831896535041
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/oct/29/live-us-election-results-app-alert-guardian
AND his loyal legions will have better things to worry about. Such as going to clinics, hospitals, funerals and cemetaries.
He's a skilled cartoonist
I bet he knows the story very well too - grammar school boy in the 1960s.
(In Slough - wonder if he likes Betjeman, who wrote the Friendly Bombs poem in 1937.)
Also depressingly lazy and thunderously dishonest.
Edit: too late...
I'm not saying thats right but I can understand why this poll reflects that. I dont think a two week 'breaker' will fix anything personally its longer or not at all. But the mood is changing nationally from a month or two ago.
Of course, Trump can and probably personally will frustrate the Transition process but elements in his administration will hopefully ensure the Biden team doesn't inherit a "Scorched Earth" in the West Wing. That said, those closest to Trump are probably already working on their memoirs and they will be required reading during 2021 as the detail of what went on in the Trump White House comes out.
One thing that will help is IF the Democrats win the Senate, a stimulus bill will be swiftly passed (unless Trump decides to veto it in early January) which will buoy the markets.
Presumably it is Marcus Rashford who is the Messiah.
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322244181037821954
Note that after he lost the 1932 election to Franklin Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover attempted to get FDR to pledge that he would support Hoover's policies re: economic recovery (less than a success to that point, to put it mildly) and pledge to continue them as president. FDR said thanks, but no thanks.
In early 1933, Hoover's concern, however arrogant, misguided and short-sided his perspective was the future of the country. Whereas Trumpsky's in early 2021 will be exclusively ME, ME, ME!
"Short" - good
"Sharp" - good
"Circuit breaker" (ie. avoiding a lockdown) - good.
Which won't happen.
Biden 54 .. Trump 44
https://progressmichigan.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/LE-Newsletter-Issue8.pdf
Looks a serious poll: 1,280 LV
Biden 49 .. Trump 47
https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-biden-and-cunningham-hold-slim-leads-in-north-carolina-cooper-remains-ahead-as-election-day-nears
Which is a quadrupling every week.
There's zero evidence of that on the daily published data.
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
That's about it for now. Gotta go eat. (I do hope this one dies the death.)
Just one post office but WTF
https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744?s=19
https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322222134559690753?s=19
"Bewitched by her charm, he submitted to her monstrous request. John was executed and his head was brought to Salome. The cruel woman gloated with delight. But the death of Allah's beloved prophet was avenged. Not only she, but all the children of Israel were severely punished by invading armies which destroyed their kingdom."
http://www.alim.org/library/biography/stories/content/SOP/5/28/Yahya (John)/John's Cruel Death
We don't have a view into rural or urban seats.
> note that KC returns to date = 90.9% of total ballots cast in 2016 general = 1,041,613
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1322222122073264130?s=21
The various studies of the virus are showing that the real infection rate is growing far faster than the rate recorded by the main testing program.
They are working out the real infection rate by testing a random sample of the population and then applying poll style adjustments to make sure the results are representative.
Already voted (73.7% of sample): Biden 61.5%, Trump 36.4%
Plan to vote (26.3% of sample): Biden 32.9%, Trump 62.3%
IF he's unaware of the problematic subtext of his imagery (not what you'd call obscure) then he is either
a) ignorant; or
b) to dumb to do basic research;
c) a bigot way down deep . . . or maybe not so far down . . .
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1322137594050863104?s=21
So where are all these extra cases ?
And do they give an estimate of the number of asymptomatic cases ?
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/523564-is-trump-about-to-reprise-herbert-hoovers-historic-defeat-in-1932
The thing is for all the people saying they're not sure it's anti-Semitic because they didn't get the reference ... Well Bell did get the reference. Bell knew what he was doing. He was deliberately portraying Corbyn as the John the Baptist sacrificed improperly. He was deliberately downplaying the EHRC report etc. And the Guardian printed it deliberately. Whether others get the reference or not.
Now he's appears as dated as Benny Hill. Also less funny and lacking BH's gravitas.
They have in this election been mostly showing smaller Biden leads than the other higher rated pollsters.
The problem with the ONS vs testing data is that depending on your viewpoint it could be both scary or reassuring. Because the ONS data is always 2 weeks old so one point of view is that the testing is rapidly diverging and current numbers are very hidden. The other is that the ONS model projections are failing to recognise that things are slowing down - something which is evidenced by the testing data.
https://twitter.com/awedgewood/status/1322259285720604674
Sound familiar?
But I'm not sure that we can get quite so queasy about it when, as far as I can tell, the majority of us (PB or UK) defended the absolute right of Charlie Hebdo to publish their cartoons, which others certainly found offensive.
Can testify from years of experience observing & analyzing ballot returns in WA State elections (we are all vote-by-mail every election) that you can and will drive yourself NUTS trying to make heads or tails out of the data.
Mostly because the playing field keeps changing.
For example, introduction of pre-paid postage for returned ballots starting in 2018.
For another, Trumpsky's war on USPS which has resulted in huge spike in drop-box versus postal returns.
In 2008, Barack Obama won North Carolina. 73% of Registered Democrats voted as did 73% of Registered Republicans and 64% of Independents.
In 2016, President Trump won North Carolina. That year, 68% of Registered Democrats voted, and 75% of Registered Republicans.
In that case, the differential turnout was a really good indicator.
Today, 57% of Registered Democrats have voted in North Carolina, and 54% of Registered Republicans.
Of course, we don't know how Independents will break. And we don't know how much change there has been in the numbers of registered supporters of each party. Nevertheless, this split points to (at the very least) a much closer race than in 2016.
But I think the GOP are a long way from being in a compromising mood.
If the Guardian wants to be anti-Semitic that is their right. If the Guardian wants to play down anti-Semitism that is their right. But let's not here any more from the Guardian about the evils of racism if so.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1322185942770323456?s=20
And a bunch of arrogant ignorant loudmouths who happily leap to dole out misunderstood and garbled crap to those desperate denialists.
Who then have their denialism reinforced, providing a stronger audience for the loudmouths, and the cycle feeds back on itself.
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1322264074462416897?s=20
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
The thing is Why, on this subject - Corbyn being expelled from Labour for anti-Jewish sentiment - would he choose to go for a story about Jews from the Bible, with a severed head (after recent Islamist beheadings of Christians???)
It beggars belief that he didn't see that it *could* very easily be perceived as offensive, grotesque and crass, and it is even more amazing that the editors didn't immediately scratch it, and say Do something else
Again it speaks to a kind of blindspot, or a wilful stupidity, on this subject. The Guardian is left wing and righteous so it can do no wrong and is never offensive? Well, sorry, it bloody well can, and it was.