When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
Oh come on how the hell can you defeat a virus? Its not worked so far , maybe if we all libe in a hermit state for years on end possibly but its going to be the end of our way of live for a virus that is no more deadly than flu- 1600 people dies yesterday or whihc 1300 died of something other than covid 19
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
A vaccine is the only viable answer in the long run. Russia and Venezuela claim to have one!
The papers today are all full of the dire warnings from SAGE that the Tier system is 'ineffective' and that we are on an inexorable course towards hospitals being overwhelmed etc as a result.
Is any of this actually based on data, rather than surmise, collected since the Tier system was introduced.
Aren't most of the SAGE analysis of cases based on data that predated the Tier system being introduced. The tier system was only introduced a little over 2 weeks ago. Only Liverpool has been in it for the full period. Greater Manchester little more than a week!
We know that hospitalisations and deaths are a lagging indicator so up-to-date evidence of that also largely predates the Tier system.
Now the scientists may well be "right" about the Tier system. But is any of their opinion based on actual data? Or might the Tier system actually be having an effect (as evidence by the slow down in published daily case numbers, rather than the "old" data from ONS etc)?
Foxy mentioned that the R number has dropped sharply in the NE, not sure about the NW.
Problem is the data is all over the place. King's say the R rate is 1.1 for England; Imperial say 1.6
Looks obvious that it's worse than the projected worst case. Yet John Redwood doubting this on R4.
Another ERG genius that the Tory right love so much, only interested in making money.
I remain unconvinced by the use of this stat: deaths with a + test within 28 days. I defer to ONS who are the experts, but it doesn't sit right with me.
How many of these people actually died from the virus, rather than something else with a + test?
I wonder about the fact that on the dashboard site they are STILL quoting the +60 day figure. Almost as if they are unhappy that they were forced to change it and still might be relying on it for much detailed work...
The papers today are all full of the dire warnings from SAGE that the Tier system is 'ineffective' and that we are on an inexorable course towards hospitals being overwhelmed etc as a result.
Is any of this actually based on data, rather than surmise, collected since the Tier system was introduced.
Aren't most of the SAGE analysis of cases based on data that predated the Tier system being introduced. The tier system was only introduced a little over 2 weeks ago. Only Liverpool has been in it for the full period. Greater Manchester little more than a week!
We know that hospitalisations and deaths are a lagging indicator so up-to-date evidence of that also largely predates the Tier system.
Now the scientists may well be "right" about the Tier system. But is any of their opinion based on actual data? Or might the Tier system actually be having an effect (as evidence by the slow down in published daily case numbers, rather than the "old" data from ONS etc)?
Foxy mentioned that the R number has dropped sharply in the NE, not sure about the NW.
Official R number in the North West is currently 1.0-1.2. The lowest in the country.
The evidence of R seems to suggest that the Tier system is working. It's not surprising it's highest in areas where restrictions are lowest. I'm sure somebody will explain why this is wrong. Probably quote that Imperial College "study" or something....
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
It is an awful situation to be in, both medically and economically.
I don't think that schools can shut completely again, and sending university students home is a recipie for spread. Rates seem to have peaked in the students. The hospitality sector is on its last legs already, as are the performing arts. There will be more retail closures coming, as the end of furlough coincides with the peak of this wave.
Test and Trace is crap, but at current prevalence rates is irrelevant anyway. Speedy testing and isolation is as much as we can do, until the wave passes.
In the hospitals we have plans prepared, PPE stocks seem adequate, staff are now trained and experienced, so mortality rates are about half what they were.
Personally, I would stick to the Tier system, and recommend no non essential interpersonal contact or travel domestically or internationally. WFH as much as possible and have a Zoom Christmas planned.
Police and the Crown Prosecution Service have been handed a 225-page dossier urging them to investigate Dominic Cummings for allegedly perverting the course of justice, in relation to a statement about his journeys to the north-east of England at the height of the pandemic.
The former regional chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal said Cummings’ claims during a press conference in Downing Street’s rose garden on 25 May affected the course of justice as they were made as Durham police’s investigation into his behaviour was already under way.
Afzal’s lawyers gave extensive details of the allegation in the dossier sent on Friday to Durham police, the Metropolitan police and Max Hill, the director of public prosecutions, and his staff at the CPS.
They claimed the legal test for such a prosecution had been met.
I think its pretty obvious that covid-19 is seasonal and there is not a lot that can be done about it. What did the first lockdown achieve that the passing of winter did not? Cases were already flattening before the first lockdown. unless we feel its good to lock the country down permanently then covid 19 will be here in winter and not so much in summer (just like flu). As for hospitals being full - well they always are in a bad flu year in winter. Surely peoples memories are not that goldfish like to not remember this?
The effects of a lockdown will be (have been) far greater than the effects of covid-19. Sweden are not seeing the case levels the other European countries are now becasue they did not get obsessed and delusiional about being able to defeat it in the first place
Almost all of what you have written is nonsense. There was no levelling off in the case rate pre lockdown.
Looking good for the Dems in Nevada. Though Jon Ralston likes to build a narrative so people dont get complacent, he's a good source for how things are going in the state. To be honest I didn't expect Trump to flip the state but there had been some nervous moments but I suspect the state will increase Clintons lead from 2016 now. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
Looks obvious that it's worse than the projected worst case. Yet John Redwood doubting this on R4.
Another ERG genius that the Tory right love so much, only interested in making money.
I remain unconvinced by the use of this stat: deaths with a + test within 28 days. I defer to ONS who are the experts, but it doesn't sit right with me.
How many of these people actually died from the virus, rather than something else with a + test?
Pretty much all of them. Possibly 1 or 2 got run over by a bus on the way home from hospital, but nearly everyone dying within a month of covid, whether from respiratory, renal, or vascular cause is as a consequence of the virus. It is much more than a viral chest infection, but rather a systemic infection that triggers in some people a severe inflammatory and vascular response.
Looking good for the Dems in Nevada. Though Jon Ralston likes to build a narrative so people dont get complacent, he's a good source for how things are going in the state. To be honest I didn't expect Trump to flip the state but there had been some nervous moments but I suspect the state will increase Clintons lead from 2016 now. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
Yes, Trump whining about “fraud” there is a good sign that he has lost NV
I think its pretty obvious that covid-19 is seasonal and there is not a lot that can be done about it. What did the first lockdown achieve that the passing of winter did not? Cases were already flattening before the first lockdown. unless we feel its good to lock the country down permanently then covid 19 will be here in winter and not so much in summer (just like flu). As for hospitals being full - well they always are in a bad flu year in winter. Surely peoples memories are not that goldfish like to not remember this?
The effects of a lockdown will be (have been) far greater than the effects of covid-19. Sweden are not seeing the case levels the other European countries are now becasue they did not get obsessed and delusiional about being able to defeat it in the first place
Almost all of what you have written is nonsense. There was no levelling off in the case rate pre lockdown.
Nevertheless asking what the respective contributions of the government's formal measures, people's informal precautions, and a spell of almost continuous warm sunny weather, in stemming the rise in case numbers would be a good question.
I think its pretty obvious that covid-19 is seasonal and there is not a lot that can be done about it. What did the first lockdown achieve that the passing of winter did not? Cases were already flattening before the first lockdown. unless we feel its good to lock the country down permanently then covid 19 will be here in winter and not so much in summer (just like flu). As for hospitals being full - well they always are in a bad flu year in winter. Surely peoples memories are not that goldfish like to not remember this?
The effects of a lockdown will be (have been) far greater than the effects of covid-19. Sweden are not seeing the case levels the other European countries are now becasue they did not get obsessed and delusiional about being able to defeat it in the first place
Almost all of what you have written is nonsense. There was no levelling off in the case rate pre lockdown.
Nevertheless asking what the respective contributions of the government's formal measures, people's informal precautions, and a spell of almost continuous warm sunny weather, in stemming the rise in case numbers would be a good question.
Letting people go on foreign holidays in the summer was a huge mistake, as was not throwing Cummings overboard after the Barnard Castle incident
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
It is an awful situation to be in, both medically and economically.
I don't think that schools can shut completely again, and sending university students home is a recipie for spread. Rates seem to have peaked in the students. The hospitality sector is on its last legs already, as are the performing arts. There will be more retail closures coming, as the end of furlough coincides with the peak of this wave.
Test and Trace is crap, but at current prevalence rates is irrelevant anyway. Speedy testing and isolation is as much as we can do, until the wave passes.
In the hospitals we have plans prepared, PPE stocks seem adequate, staff are now trained and experienced, so mortality rates are about half what they were.
Personally, I would stick to the Tier system, and recommend no non essential interpersonal contact or travel domestically or internationally. WFH as much as possible and have a Zoom Christmas planned.
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
@Carnyx These halfwitted bitter and twisted losers just want to whinge about Scotland and punt their odious "it is anti English" mantra. Normally they would be laughing at thick poor Scots going to Blackpool and calling it a dump but it now suits them to champion it. Despicable odious creature and pretends to be Scottish as well.
That headline makes no sense. corbyn wasn't punished because of what the report says, he was punished for defying his party leader in a way that undermined the party's response to the report.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
Oh come on how the hell can you defeat a virus? Its not worked so far , maybe if we all libe in a hermit state for years on end possibly but its going to be the end of our way of live for a virus that is no more deadly than flu- 1600 people dies yesterday or whihc 1300 died of something other than covid 19
The way to defeat it is to lower the spread until a vaccine or treatment is available. If it is let rip it will grow exponentially (look that up) and people will isolate through fear rather than because they were told to, but it will be too late and hospitals will be overwhelmed. The economy will suffer more if we take your approach. The flu is much less contagious than Covid, you surely know that?
Does that "capacity" include all those unused Nightengales?
If you read the full report on the BBC website rather than the tweet, you'll see that it does assume the Nightingale hospitals are used (and that all non-urgent procedures are cancelled).
And it's also worth considering that staff may be fully occupied before all the beds are filled. Particularly if significant numbers of staff are ill themselves or self-isolating.
Extrapolating this graph is painful to see, but it looks like where we are going.
Indeed. But my allowing Rasputin to leak to selected journos on a Fri night that there will be a national lockdown announced on monday the "administration" has guaranteed tons of young people will be out this weekend enjoying one last party before Xmas.
So having leaked the plan to the papers, it's possible there might be a vote in Parliament on the lockdown, with another huge Tory rebellion.
Luckily for BoZo, Labour will vote for it...
That will make the Brady Bunch very angry indeed. They aren't too bright, soJohnson needs to modify his tier system, add 3.5 and ensure somewhere in England remains open to claim no national lockdown. No national lockdown, no need for parliamentary voting. Brady Bunch happy.
John Apter, chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, which represents 120,000 officers, criticised the briefing of coronavirus measures to the media, claiming it increased pressure on the emergency services.
Getting a bit heated. We're headed for lockdown. Hopefully everyone has spent time preparing their mind for what is to come. Peace and blessings to you all.
Honestly it doesn't make much of a change for me, shocking I know, but it's still massively depressing even though I always knew there would be a second wave. Knowing you can walk out the door at any time makes a big impact even when you don't do it.
So Nate had a chat with Cahaly and has put Trafalgar's polls back into his polling average.
Let's just do a little sense check. Trafalgar has unleashed a veritable flood of state polls with field work date from 24th to the 29th of October.
They have ~1050 respondents and a response rate of ~1.4% . The per poll the number of contacts necessary for the response size was (and the dates attempted)
The 25th is certainly a very nigh number of contact attempts. Very high. Impressively high. Trafalgar must be a very large and well resourced polling outfit to manage so many contact attempts in a day. Assuming an 8-to-8 window that was almost 4 contact attempts per second
If a person can do 50 calls/hour (less than 1 successful call, 49 plus fails) that needs just under 300 people on the phone, if 25 calls/hour you are looking at just under 600 people. This doesn't take into account loo and coffee breaks which for 10 minutes loses 5 - 10 calls per hour.
When they say closing “everything”, do they literally mean that: offices, businesses, electricians, plumbers, builders etc ie all work?
Or do they mean places where people congregate ie hospitality, shops etc?
Because the former is something akin to what we had in March. And without a furlough scheme of some kind, the economic pain would be pretty catastrophic.
If universities are one source of the spread since September why aren’t they being closed? Either we shut down those activities which have the greatest risk or we don’t, in which case shutting other things which are not so high risk is a bit pointless.
How many national lockdowns are we supposed to have before we realise they don't actually solve the problem?
Fortunately, we get to see in the US the different results of places with lockdowns (like California and New York), and without them (like Arizona, Georgia and Florida).
And the difference is...
Oh.
Bugger all.
Because when hospitals start filling and death tolls start rising, people lock themselves down.
Places without lockdowns just have a series of peaks and troughs as fear ebbs and flows. Now, that may very well be a better outcome than government mandated lockdowns. But the practical reality is that societies lockdown with or without government diktat.
I'm not sure the young would lock themselves down voluntarily now.
Because the hospitals aren't filling up with them.
Well then, perhaps the young have the right idea and us older folk will just have to be d*mn careful
How do older folk who need to catch the bus / tram to the shops for food act damn carefully ?
Go before the students get up! Do your shopping before midday
Seriously though, the lockdown will not kill the virus off, it will still be there, still infecting people. And even during lockdown, there will still be people on the bus when you go to do your shopping.
So what are you going to do during lockdown? Starve? No, you will take your chances as carefully as can be managed
Order it online, we have had to shield since beginning and we just order everything online , I have been to shops 3 times at most for 5 minutes and a couple of times for a takeaway. Other than hospital appointments that is it since beginning of the year. Far better than being dead.
So, what with Trump's chances fading, is he going to come up with one last throw of the dice? Declare a Covid state of emergency to halt the election? Have the FBI arrest Biden for something? Invade somewhere?
Ok, because of the kerfuffle I ran the cartoon past a professional cartoonist, who incidentally hadn't seen it before and wasn't aware of the AS concerns.
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
Like Foxy says, "The implication that the Jews wanted an innocent man's head on a plate."
So that's NOT anti-semitic? Sorry, but think you are wrong here. Trouble is not crap drawing but rather loaded, coded message.
Also, this cartoonist was "unaware of the anti-Semitic issue" and this is when he, or she, is judging a cartoon, which is all about a politician cashiered for anti-Semitism?
That's utterly ridiculous. Anti-Semitism is THE central issue here, it is the reason for the cartoon's existence. So if you are unaware of that you can't have any opinion on the image, as you are clueless of the vital context.
Aren't we praising the French for publishing religiously offensive cartoons?
No. We’re praising them for not censoring them.
+1
This is a crucially important point.
No-one on here (I hope) would suggest that Der Stürmer's portrayal of Jews in Germany was acceptable, and no-one should praise it. (Indeed, one would hope they would criticise it.)
But free speech includes free speech that is grossly offensive. That's them apples.
Exactly this.
The issue it seems to me is not cartoons etc but that parts of the Muslim world want to impose a de facto Islamic blasphemy law in countries where Muslims live, even where they are in a minority. And to determine what criticism, if any, can be made of Islam and how. And some states - like Turkey - are seeking to use economic measures to try to get their way.
This is completely unacceptable regardless of whether you are a secular state like France or one like ours or an Italy or whatever. France’s fight is ours, if we want to remain a free society. Offensive cartoons are a side issue - a symptom - of a clash between different views of freedom. It is a fight that the West has to win if its societies are to remain Western and free. I wish Britain was more robust in showing its support for France.
I was talking about this w my gf earlier, she was reading on the bbc about the effigies of Macron, and heard myself saying ‘best we just shut up and leave them to it’, then realised that is exactly the wrong strategy - giving in. But it’s either that or some kind of civil war. I reckon in a generation or two there will be official Islamic enclaves in European countries, because it’s either that, civil war, or the state imposing itself over the Islamic population and the enclaves are the easy option
You may be right. But enclaves are not an easy option. They simply postpone resolution of the problem.
In France there are de facto enclaves in some parts of the banlieues around Paris. It has not helped. Because this is not about Muslims wanting to be free to practise their religion in peace - something we can all agree with. But about wanting to control what non-Muslims think and say about Islam. Hence the attacks, the beheadings, the demos outside French shops in London, the calls for economic boycotts.
The sovereign’s writ has to run throughout the whole country. If it doesn’t you are no longer sovereign. You no longer have one country. And civil war - or some sort of trouble - is much more likely to happen in such a situation.
I very much hope I am wrong. But having got rid of a Christian Inquisition and rule by the Church here I am damned if I want to have an Islamic Inquisition and rule replacing it.
Dont really know how it goes from a few terrorist incidents to civil war. It absolutely needs to be confronted and challenged, but hyperbole doesnt help matters.
A reminder that we have lived with much higher levels of terrorism in Western Europe, we just didnt have social media and 24hr international news to make it feel so high.
Agreed. It was @isam who mentioned civil war. And of course there has been worse terrorism for decades in some parts. But there is a very fundamental challenge here Because you cannot have a compromise with people who want to impose an Islamic blasphemy law. You either have one or you don’t. This is not about people demanding freedoms for themselves which are being denied by an oppressive state. But about people wanting to limit other peoples’ freedoms on the basis of a religious diktat others do not share - and seeking to use violence to achieve their ends.
There can - and should be - only one winner in such a battle and it cannot be those who seek to limit freedom. I hope we can get there without more trouble, I really do.
But check out the comments under today’s Times article on the French terror attack. If they are in any way representative, it does not bode well.
The answer is simple, you dont have the blasphemy law, dont compromise with the demands for one, then most people get on with life as normal but sadly there are occasional but ongoing terrorist attacks. We have lived with them before and can cope with them in the future too.
The papers today are all full of the dire warnings from SAGE that the Tier system is 'ineffective' and that we are on an inexorable course towards hospitals being overwhelmed etc as a result.
Is any of this actually based on data, rather than surmise, collected since the Tier system was introduced.
Aren't most of the SAGE analysis of cases based on data that predated the Tier system being introduced. The tier system was only introduced a little over 2 weeks ago. Only Liverpool has been in it for the full period. Greater Manchester little more than a week!
We know that hospitalisations and deaths are a lagging indicator so up-to-date evidence of that also largely predates the Tier system.
Now the scientists may well be "right" about the Tier system. But is any of their opinion based on actual data? Or might the Tier system actually be having an effect (as evidence by the slow down in published daily case numbers, rather than the "old" data from ONS etc)?
Foxy mentioned that the R number has dropped sharply in the NE, not sure about the NW.
Official R number in the North West is currently 1.0-1.2. The lowest in the country.
The evidence of R seems to suggest that the Tier system is working. It's not surprising it's highest in areas where restrictions are lowest. I'm sure somebody will explain why this is wrong. Probably quote that Imperial College "study" or something....
If it's working it no longer matters as every bit of reporting says it's not.
Ok, because of the kerfuffle I ran the cartoon past a professional cartoonist, who incidentally hadn't seen it before and wasn't aware of the AS concerns.
We concluded it's a good cartoon cartoon idea, but the execution is poor (no pun intended). The main trouble is that Starmer is unrecognisable. He looks more like Cameron! What's more, he's been made to look effete. The reason for this is unclear, and doesn't seem to serve any comedic or political purpose. (Corbyn is also a poor likeness but that matters less.)
This is a shame because the idea of Starmer decapitating metaphorically his adversary is a strong one, especially as real beheadings are very much in the news.
Is it anti-semitic? Not in a million years. There's no Jewish trope here, and no caricature that could be interpreted as such.
Like Foxy says, "The implication that the Jews wanted an innocent man's head on a plate."
So that's NOT anti-semitic? Sorry, but think you are wrong here. Trouble is not crap drawing but rather loaded, coded message.
Also, this cartoonist was "unaware of the anti-Semitic issue" and this is when he, or she, is judging a cartoon, which is all about a politician cashiered for anti-Semitism?
That's utterly ridiculous. Anti-Semitism is THE central issue here, it is the reason for the cartoon's existence. So if you are unaware of that you can't have any opinion on the image, as you are clueless of the vital context.
Aren't we praising the French for publishing religiously offensive cartoons?
No. We’re praising them for not censoring them.
+1
This is a crucially important point.
No-one on here (I hope) would suggest that Der Stürmer's portrayal of Jews in Germany was acceptable, and no-one should praise it. (Indeed, one would hope they would criticise it.)
But free speech includes free speech that is grossly offensive. That's them apples.
Exactly this.
The issue it seems to me is not cartoons etc but that parts of the Muslim world want to impose a de facto Islamic blasphemy law in countries where Muslims live, even where they are in a minority. And to determine what criticism, if any, can be made of Islam and how. And some states - like Turkey - are seeking to use economic measures to try to get their way.
This is completely unacceptable regardless of whether you are a secular state like France or one like ours or an Italy or whatever. France’s fight is ours, if we want to remain a free society. Offensive cartoons are a side issue - a symptom - of a clash between different views of freedom. It is a fight that the West has to win if its societies are to remain Western and free. I wish Britain was more robust in showing its support for France.
I was talking about this w my gf earlier, she was reading on the bbc about the effigies of Macron, and heard myself saying ‘best we just shut up and leave them to it’, then realised that is exactly the wrong strategy - giving in. But it’s either that or some kind of civil war. I reckon in a generation or two there will be official Islamic enclaves in European countries, because it’s either that, civil war, or the state imposing itself over the Islamic population and the enclaves are the easy option
You may be right. But enclaves are not an easy option. They simply postpone resolution of the problem.
In France there are de facto enclaves in some parts of the banlieues around Paris. It has not helped. Because this is not about Muslims wanting to be free to practise their religion in peace - something we can all agree with. But about wanting to control what non-Muslims think and say about Islam. Hence the attacks, the beheadings, the demos outside French shops in London, the calls for economic boycotts.
The sovereign’s writ has to run throughout the whole country. If it doesn’t you are no longer sovereign. You no longer have one country. And civil war - or some sort of trouble - is much more likely to happen in such a situation.
I very much hope I am wrong. But having got rid of a Christian Inquisition and rule by the Church here I am damned if I want to have an Islamic Inquisition and rule replacing it.
Dont really know how it goes from a few terrorist incidents to civil war. It absolutely needs to be confronted and challenged, but hyperbole doesnt help matters.
A reminder that we have lived with much higher levels of terrorism in Western Europe, we just didnt have social media and 24hr international news to make it feel so high.
Agreed. It was @isam who mentioned civil war. And of course there has been worse terrorism for decades in some parts. But there is a very fundamental challenge here Because you cannot have a compromise with people who want to impose an Islamic blasphemy law. You either have one or you don’t. This is not about people demanding freedoms for themselves which are being denied by an oppressive state. But about people wanting to limit other peoples’ freedoms on the basis of a religious diktat others do not share - and seeking to use violence to achieve their ends.
There can - and should be - only one winner in such a battle and it cannot be those who seek to limit freedom. I hope we can get there without more trouble, I really do.
But check out the comments under today’s Times article on the French terror attack. If they are in any way representative, it does not bode well.
The answer is simple, you dont have the blasphemy law, dont compromise with the demands for one, then most people get on with life as normal but sadly there are occasional but ongoing terrorist attacks. We have lived with them before and can cope with them in the future too.
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first. 2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not. 3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat. 4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared. 5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
The weather - just going into a nice sunny season?
Oh.
I assuime Johnson will portray his measures as "saving Christmas for the nation". And because that goes with the grain of what people think is needed, it will be quite popular for a while. Plus the general atmosphere will let him get away with any old deal with the EU (if you think he cares about the details I have a (garden) bridge you might like to buy). So he should feel quite cheerful by this time next week.
Christ Almighty, she’s either stunningly ignorant or doing it deliberately. Four sentences, for specific statements, all wrong.
- It’s not flattening everywhere - Deaths from respiratory infections are up on the year - Lockdowns are the only thing we’ve done yet that have definitely reduced the virus spread - Viruses haven’t been free to do what they like since the mid eighteen-hundreds or earlier; her statement ignores two hundred years of increasing knowledge and capability.
Oh, it’s the woman who was loudly encouraging students to spread the disease. Such a surprise.
They need to nip it in the bud, I would have them on the next plane back to Turkey.
Just a linguistic note - the article is in the subjunctive and essentially means "It is reported that" - that's why there's a question mark in the title.
So extrapolating from previous weeks on Worldometer I predicted on here for cases in America 93K for Thurs and 100K for Friday. I looked at it because I thought the 100K landmark looked likely and might be a critical landmark just before the election.
Actual numbers were 91.8K and 101.4K.
To be honest it wasn't difficult because the trend for Thurs and Fri was pretty consistent.
Sat figure is usually quite high but always below Thurs and Fri. It is also less consistent sometimes being close to Fri figure, sometimes considerably less and obviously subsequent days will be down before the election being Sun - Tues.
It will be interesting to see what Sat will be and how newsworthy the huge Thur and Fri jumps are and the breaking of the 100K with Trump still claiming it is getting better.
Comments
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1322246900779831308
Apart from Hamilton winning to a boringly predictable extent, of course.
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460335102742528
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460336545538048
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#:~:text=The R number range for,as of 7 August 2020.&text=The R number range for,as of 31 July 2020.&text=The R number range for,as of 24 July 2020.
The evidence of R seems to suggest that the Tier system is working. It's not surprising it's highest in areas where restrictions are lowest. I'm sure somebody will explain why this is wrong. Probably quote that Imperial College "study" or something....
I don't think that schools can shut completely again, and sending university students home is a recipie for spread. Rates seem to have peaked in the students. The hospitality sector is on its last legs already, as are the performing arts. There will be more retail closures coming, as the end of furlough coincides with the peak of this wave.
Test and Trace is crap, but at current prevalence rates is irrelevant anyway. Speedy testing and isolation is as much as we can do, until the wave passes.
In the hospitals we have plans prepared, PPE stocks seem adequate, staff are now trained and experienced, so mortality rates are about half what they were.
Personally, I would stick to the Tier system, and recommend no non essential interpersonal contact or travel domestically or internationally. WFH as much as possible and have a Zoom Christmas planned.
The former regional chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal said Cummings’ claims during a press conference in Downing Street’s rose garden on 25 May affected the course of justice as they were made as Durham police’s investigation into his behaviour was already under way.
Afzal’s lawyers gave extensive details of the allegation in the dossier sent on Friday to Durham police, the Metropolitan police and Max Hill, the director of public prosecutions, and his staff at the CPS.
They claimed the legal test for such a prosecution had been met.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/30/dossier-alleges-cummings-may-have-perverted-course-of-justice-in-account-of-lockdown-trip
From the history, I hasten to add.
Churchill faced repeated challenges for deselection from his own Tory members in....Epping.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first.
2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not.
3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat.
4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared.
5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.
Have I missed anything?
Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
CarlottaVance said:
» show previous quotes
More than go to Spain?
Pre-COVID Spain held 7 out of the top 10 holiday destinations:
https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/top-10-holiday-destinations-scottish-13854857
@Carnyx
These halfwitted bitter and twisted losers just want to whinge about Scotland and punt their odious "it is anti English" mantra. Normally they would be laughing at thick poor Scots going to Blackpool and calling it a dump but it now suits them to champion it. Despicable odious creature and pretends to be Scottish as well.
Luckily for BoZo, Labour will vote for it...
If it is let rip it will grow exponentially (look that up) and people will isolate through fear rather than because they were told to, but it will be too late and hospitals will be overwhelmed. The economy will suffer more if we take your approach. The flu is much less contagious than Covid, you surely know that?
I doubt he feels the need to ask for permission.
Possible for Trafalgar? Outsourced?
Oh.
I assuime Johnson will portray his measures as "saving Christmas for the nation". And because that goes with the grain of what people think is needed, it will be quite popular for a while. Plus the general atmosphere will let him get away with any old deal with the EU (if you think he cares about the details I have a (garden) bridge you might like to buy). So he should feel quite cheerful by this time next week.
- It’s not flattening everywhere
- Deaths from respiratory infections are up on the year
- Lockdowns are the only thing we’ve done yet that have definitely reduced the virus spread
- Viruses haven’t been free to do what they like since the mid eighteen-hundreds or earlier; her statement ignores two hundred years of increasing knowledge and capability.
Oh, it’s the woman who was loudly encouraging students to spread the disease. Such a surprise.
Actual numbers were 91.8K and 101.4K.
To be honest it wasn't difficult because the trend for Thurs and Fri was pretty consistent.
Sat figure is usually quite high but always below Thurs and Fri. It is also less consistent sometimes being close to Fri figure, sometimes considerably less and obviously subsequent days will be down before the election being Sun - Tues.
It will be interesting to see what Sat will be and how newsworthy the huge Thur and Fri jumps are and the breaking of the 100K with Trump still claiming it is getting better.