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The battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited October 2020 in General
imageThe battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong – politicalbetting.com

Above is the latest polling average for Florida from Nate Silver’s site where, as can be seen, Biden has been enjoying a small but significant lead. Yet when we look at the betting a different trend appears. This of the Betfair market from Betdata and Trump has been odds on favourite for quite some time.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    Second
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    They keep giving this away for free. It is outrageous.

    https://twitter.com/JustinSandefur/status/1321914027640049667?s=19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,132
    At the moment I think Biden is more likely to pick up Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida is my gut instinct
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    On topic, Florida is one state where I actually think those betting are likely to be more right than the pollsters
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited October 2020
    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,132
    Mysticrose said:

    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

    Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Survey USA have all had Trump ahead in Florida within the last week
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Alistair said:

    They keep giving this away for free. It is outrageous.

    https://twitter.com/JustinSandefur/status/1321914027640049667?s=19

    When I see this and hear Trump's spending election night at the WH, I will be honest, it scares the hell out of me. He is clearly of the opinion that since his voters will follow him no matter what he says or does, he's going to do whatever it takes to hang on. Why couldnt it have been Alaska took so long to deal with postals and not PA :(
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Alistair said:

    They keep giving this away for free. It is outrageous.

    https://twitter.com/JustinSandefur/status/1321914027640049667?s=19

    Many of the PA counties will not begin counting mail in ballots until the day after election day.
    (Thread)
    https://twitter.com/DKaplanWTAE/status/1321644735178657794
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I don't understand why PA are messing around so much with the mail ballots. PA has a Democrat Governor so what's going on here?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    They keep giving this away for free. It is outrageous.

    https://twitter.com/JustinSandefur/status/1321914027640049667?s=19

    When I see this and hear Trump's spending election night at the WH, I will be honest, it scares the hell out of me. He is clearly of the opinion that since his voters will follow him no matter what he says or does, he's going to do whatever it takes to hang on. Why couldnt it have been Alaska took so long to deal with postals and not PA :(
    PA won't matter. I know that may seem extraordinary but it isn't 2016. PA will be a footnote victory for Biden.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The boy from Scranton is not losing PA. He needs a swing under 1% and will get it.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    On Balance I think Biden will win Florida by 1% but a combination of Dem underperformance in places like Miami Dade and bad memories of 2018 mean that I am not confident and can still see Trump winning it by 1-2%.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

    Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Survey USA have all had Trump ahead in Florida within the last week
    Susquehanna was a poll sample of 400 commissioned by the Centre for American Greatness - an extreme right wing Trump organisation without any transparency on polling methodology.

    Trafalgar aren't a proper polling organisation. And if you mean Survey Monkey they are rated D- and I don't look at their polls even when they show Biden ahead. They too are not a proper polling organisation.

    You're just not doing yourself any favours I'm afraid HYUFD. It's really rather sad by now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,132
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:

    is my gut instinct

    Right there. The. Problem.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I don't understand why PA are messing around so much with the mail ballots. PA has a Democrat Governor so what's going on here?

    The legislature won't approve starting the count of early and/or postal ballots before election day.
    https://twitter.com/DKaplanWTAE/status/1321650218312544256
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited October 2020
    The US just passed 90,000 cases in a day for the first time.

    The timing of this wave for Trump is cataclysmic. Events, dear boy.

    It will be a landslide for Biden.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    and won't that lead to at least 300 people dying each day initially and that rising slowly with time as it is clear that tier 2 is not sufficient to control the virus and R will remain above 1 leading to ever growing infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

    The longer they've left biting the bullet the harder that bullet will have to be.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    Is it? I keep expecting some pushback, but apart from a few Italian riots most of Europe's populations are meekly accepting the restrictions. Look at the streets of Paris. Desolate, again

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-54746763

    This is coming to the UK
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    I think Trump will win Florida, the GOP held/took the Governorship and Senate in 2018.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Gary_Burton said:

    On Balance I think Biden will win Florida by 1% but a combination of Dem underperformance in places like Miami Dade and bad memories of 2018 mean that I am not confident and can still see Trump winning it by 1-2%.

    This link gives some information on Florida voting and specifically Miami Dade, its a Dem site but reading the mood music they seem to agree with you about that area. Certainly in in person early voting and R turnout is higher too so far it seems. Still a way to go ofc, but my feeling is still that Trump will hold FL, At least Biden has plenty of other options without it. The lnk is udpated daily btw
    https://www.miamidadedems.org/who_is_winning_the_election_in_florida
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,132
    edited October 2020
    Mysticrose said:

    The US just passed 90,000 cases in a day for the first time.

    The timing of this wave for Trump is cataclysmic. Events, dear boy.

    It will be a landslide for Biden.

    For Trump voters the economy comes first and avoiding another lockdown, for Biden voters Covid and healthcare first so doubt it changes much

    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/10/21/only-24-of-trump-supporters-view-the-coronavirus-outbreak-as-a-very-important-voting-issue/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Mysticrose said:

    HYUFD said:

    is my gut instinct

    Right there. The. Problem.
    A little more humility from the person who said Alastair Meeks was a cross between Eeyore and Private Frazer when Mr Meeks warned us about the looming Covid-19 plague back in February.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 2020
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    Too many people don’t take the restrictions seriously. When Johnson didn’t sack Cummins we lost the battle, and thousands of people have died, and will die, unnecessarily.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Punters are impressed by the razzmatazz of Trumps campaign. It's impressive

    But the zeitgeist is somewhere else and that's what the pollsters are picking up
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Mysticrose said:

    The US just passed 90,000 cases in a day for the first time.

    The timing of this wave for Trump is cataclysmic. Events, dear boy.

    It will be a landslide for Biden.

    30,000 cases in Italy - a record. 24,000 cases in Belgium - a record.

    It is ravaging Europe.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited October 2020
    ManchesterKurt said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    and won't that lead to at least 300 people dying each day initially and that rising slowly with time as it is clear that tier 2 is not sufficient to control the virus and R will remain above 1 leading to ever growing infections, hospitalisations and deaths.

    The longer they've left biting the bullet the harder that bullet will have to be.
    More than 300. Deaths peaked at 900 early April. Doesn`t alter the fact that people have a limit to their toleration of restrictions on liberty. I sense that people are slightly less risk-averse that they were in April, and will become more and more willing to take their chances with the virus as time goes on. Very slowly, inch by inch, we are coming to realise that we have to live with a new risk in life.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
    Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    Tier 2 allows people to meet in gardens. Tier 3 doesn't. At this time of year is that really a big differentiator?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322233070137806850
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    edited October 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
    Additionally - the medieval (and earlier) Christian anti-Semitism held that the Jews were particularly cursed, because despite being the people of the Book, they had ignored the sequence of messengers from God. And killed them,

    The Romans were so outside the loop on (being heathens) that their not getting The Message was understandable.

    In any event Steve Bell's accidents are starting to remind me of the Sein Fein councillor who accidentally sent a picture of himself with a Kingsmill branded loaf of bread. Balanced on his head. On the anniversary of the Kingsmill massacre.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?

    What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    Mal557 said:

    Alistair said:

    They keep giving this away for free. It is outrageous.

    https://twitter.com/JustinSandefur/status/1321914027640049667?s=19

    When I see this and hear Trump's spending election night at the WH, I will be honest, it scares the hell out of me. He is clearly of the opinion that since his voters will follow him no matter what he says or does, he's going to do whatever it takes to hang on. Why couldnt it have been Alaska took so long to deal with postals and not PA :(
    Trump spending the night at the White House means nothing. Even if Trump loses every state, he will still be President until Inauguration Day, 20 January.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Roger said:

    Punters are impressed by the razzmatazz of Trumps campaign. It's impressive

    But the zeitgeist is somewhere else and that's what the pollsters are picking up

    https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1322047788197109761
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
    Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
    To keep him on his toes and not come out with such shit rulings that were so wrong in fact.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Granddaughter 16 now has to wear a mask in class.
    Generation SNAFU.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

    Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Survey USA have all had Trump ahead in Florida within the last week
    Trafalgar isn't a pollster though so they're not relevant.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

    Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Survey USA have all had Trump ahead in Florida within the last week
    Trafalgar isn't a pollster though so they're not relevant.
    Susque are, but their weightings this term have skewed in a way that makes you wonder if they are just trying to please their pro-Trump client.

    Survey USA are good.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    alex_ said:

    If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?

    What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).

    Yes, I don't get it either. Deeply confusing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322233070137806850

    One of the things that CV19 has taught us is that there are a whole lot of people out there who really aren't very bright.
    That and just how many people suffer from acalculia.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    Considering Biden's narrow poll-lead in Florida, Trump's small advantage there on Betfair, and the fears of electoral interference being expressed by level-headed people, the polls and the odds may both be "correct".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Philip_Thompson said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
    Ok, but that's a bit of a stretch. I just don't see it as an anti-semitic cartoon with or without explanatory notes.

    Not sure it's a good cartoon though. Not a fan of Steve Bell, so not best placed to judge.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,929
    geoffw said:

    Granddaughter 16 now has to wear a mask in class.
    Generation SNAFU.

    Generation Maskne (acne caused by masks). On the plus side, that's her Christmas present sorted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1322231528076836864
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    alex_ said:

    If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?

    What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).

    If R has zoomed to 2.86 in London, then it will be 2 weeks at least, until hospitalisations catch up with that.

    The issue is the difference we see here -

    image

    The grey area is the confidence interval, the black line the estimate of the number of infections per day, in England. This is from the ONS and is only up to the 17th. This is based on random testing on the population - a bit like a poll for COVID.

    The line at the bottom is the number of cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - cases found by testing.

    This allows us to work out what proportion of the probable real cases (the ONS black line) the testing is actually finding.

    image

    So, if the ONS is right, the testing is finding about 1/3rd of the number of cases out there. And the ratio appears to be getting worse.

    Which means that the ONS data shows the cases rising rapidly, while we see a relatively slow increase in cases *found*.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322233070137806850

    One of the things that CV19 has taught us is that there are a whole lot of people out there who really aren't very bright.
    It's not as though we didn't already suspect that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1322242584945766402
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322233070137806850

    One of the things that CV19 has taught us is that there are a whole lot of people out there who really aren't very bright.
    More than that - people who see something, go "shineeeeeeey" and that's their world view. No further input required.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?

    What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).

    r = 2.86 for London is from the Imperial College survey of prevalence, with 95% Confidence Intervals of 1.47 to 4.87. REACT study, table 4 via the link in this article.

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/

    If they are accurate, then London, and a number of other places in SE and SW will be as bad as the Purple Wall within weeks.

    The NE looks good at 0.53 though, and East Midlands rather better at 1.2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
    Yes but they were idiots, they didn't stay at home, they fled to Wales, then later on went on holiday overseas then moaned like whores about the increase in Covid-19.

    I didn't expect the public to be that stupid.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Malmesbury said:

    alex_ said:

    If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?

    What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).

    If R has zoomed to 2.86 in London, then it will be 2 weeks at least, until hospitalisations catch up with that.

    The issue is the difference we see here -

    image

    The grey area is the confidence interval, the black line the estimate of the number of infections per day, in England. This is from the ONS and is only up to the 17th. This is based on random testing on the population - a bit like a poll for COVID.

    The line at the bottom is the number of cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - cases found by testing.

    This allows us to work out what proportion of the probable real cases (the ONS black line) the testing is actually finding.

    image

    So, if the ONS is right, the testing is finding about 1/3rd of the number of cases out there. And the ratio appears to be getting worse.

    Which means that the ONS data shows the cases rising rapidly, while we see a relatively slow increase in cases *found*.
    Why are we suddenly finding so many fewer cases? People not bothering to go for tests anymore? There aren't capacity issues.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
    Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
    To keep him on his toes and not come out with such shit rulings that were so wrong in fact.
    And law.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
    Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
    To keep him on his toes and not come out with such shit rulings that were so wrong in fact.
    Being acquitted in the Senate by a margin of a dozen votes would really give him a scare.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    Philip_Thompson said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
    I'm all up for putting the boot into the Guardian and Steve Bell with his creepy and unfunny cartoons, but try as I might I can't see how it's anti-semitic.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    edited October 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
    Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.

    The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.

    Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:

    Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet.
    SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune.
    Jewish community as the one it is done for.
    The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.

    There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    Voting opens in about 89 hours (excluding special cases like Dixville Notch, etc).
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Malmesbury said:

    alex_ said:

    If the Government and scientists are going to continue to brief that the "real" figures are much worse than the figures which are being published daily, and don't look anything like as bad as what they are saying, shouldn't they change their publishing strategy? we have the govt simulataneously saying that R has come from 1.3-1.5 to 1.2-1.4 to (now) 1.1-1.3 in a matter of weeks but somehow it's going to meet some impenetrable barrier that means really everything is getting much worse?

    What was all the stuff about R in London being 2.86 yesterday - is that REALLY the reality? The published figures don't suggest that, and certainly the hospitalisations don't (yet).

    If R has zoomed to 2.86 in London, then it will be 2 weeks at least, until hospitalisations catch up with that.

    The issue is the difference we see here -

    image

    The grey area is the confidence interval, the black line the estimate of the number of infections per day, in England. This is from the ONS and is only up to the 17th. This is based on random testing on the population - a bit like a poll for COVID.

    The line at the bottom is the number of cases reported on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - cases found by testing.

    This allows us to work out what proportion of the probable real cases (the ONS black line) the testing is actually finding.

    image

    So, if the ONS is right, the testing is finding about 1/3rd of the number of cases out there. And the ratio appears to be getting worse.

    Which means that the ONS data shows the cases rising rapidly, while we see a relatively slow increase in cases *found*.
    Do we have any notion of why positivity rates are dropping? Is the virus spreading faster in communities of people who are less likely to seek a test? Are the same people getting tested multiple times? Or what?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Re Tier 2. We have been in it in effect since September 18. A full six weeks. And we are now seeing signs of plateauing in the NE. Unlike the rest of the North.
    2 weeks of anything won't cut it at this stage.
    It's too late for that.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    Some good Florida polls for Biden but I still have the state in Trumps column - just. Georgia I have in the Biden column. This is my current map :

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/BvJ21
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697
    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
    Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
    To keep him on his toes and not come out with such shit rulings that were so wrong in fact.
    Being acquitted in the Senate by a margin of a dozen votes would really give him a scare.
    'Justice' Kavanaugh boils my piss in a way that only Mark Reckless did.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Reposting this excellent long read article from the last thread.

    Inside the Democrats’ New Plan to Flip Texas
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/democrats-plan-to-win-texas-433644

    If Biden takes Texas, a good deal of the credit belongs to O'Rourke, and what he started two years ago.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    Re Tier 2. We have been in it in effect since September 18. A full six weeks. And we are now seeing signs of plateauing in the NE. Unlike the rest of the North.
    2 weeks of anything won't cut it at this stage.
    It's too late for that.

    What the country really needs is lots of heavy snow on and off for about 3 months.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

    Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Survey USA have all had Trump ahead in Florida within the last week
    Trafalgar isn't a pollster though so they're not relevant.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I'm confident Biden has Florida and I have bets on him accordingly. Latest polls look very good indeed: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    His poll lead in the last two days ranges from + 2 (YouGov) through to +12 (USC/Dornsife and Opinium). IBD/TIff have him +6, PPP +7. These are strong across the board consistent leads.

    It's the demographics though. He has made huge cut through among retired because of Covid and, for this reason, I'm very confident.

    There's an interesting piece on CNN about election night 'mirages'. Mike and, I think, Robert have covered this but the CNN piece might also be useful to refer to on the night. It explains where and why the early counts may not be in keeping with the final tally:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/red-blue-mirage-election-results/index.html

    Trafalgar, Susquehanna and Survey USA have all had Trump ahead in Florida within the last week
    Trafalgar isn't a pollster though so they're not relevant.
    Susque are, but their weightings this term have skewed in a way that makes you wonder if they are just trying to please their pro-Trump client.

    Survey USA are good.
    Survey USA are good but I dont recall a FL poll from them in the last two weeks let alone 1 week. The only pollsters i can find who polled Trump up on FL in the last two weeks are:
    Swayable (who?0 rated D- Trump +4
    Survey Monkey(not USA) (rated D- Trump +2
    Susquehanna(rated C) Trump +5
    Rasmussen (rated C) Trump +4
    Trafalgar (Rated C-) Trump +2 (though that one was over two weeks ago

    Now IF there is a Survey USA poll ive missed I stand corrected but I am not aware of one. an A rated pollster putting Trump up would have stood out in the last week or two.
    This isnt to say these pollsters are wrong but it does seem only those with a poor track record (overall im talking )or questionable methodolgy have had Trump up in the last two weeks

  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    williamglenn said:

    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

    Imagine going to a rally and standing there holding up a piece of plastic-coated paper saying "TEXT EMPOWER TO 89xxx". Imagine actually being that person.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    This is how far I got into an article before deciding not to continue reading ...

    "The Trafalgar Group, which was the only nonpartisan outlet in 2016 to ..."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    SandyRentool said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    Tier 2 allows people to meet in gardens. Tier 3 doesn't. At this time of year is that really a big differentiator?
    People’s stamina and the government’s credibility are well shot beyond the point where the minutiae in policy differences between the tiers is making any difference. All that matters is the psychological effect of the tier announcements on people’s behaviour within the local areas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    MattW said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    geoffw said:

    dixiedean said:

    Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

    Yes but what makes it antisemitic?

    Antisemitic tropes about Jews being responsible for the death of Christ and his followers (despite Christ and his followers being Jews).

    Corbyn is being sacrificed to the Jews like John the Baptist and Christ were killed. Clear antisemitism.
    Not sure if I quite go with the "Jew the Christ-killer" analogy as the reason for branding it antisemitic. There are things which imo are closer. I would say it is more likely to be John the Baptist was sacrificed to a leader who was keeping a trivial promise made on a whim, because he could lose face by going back on it even though appalled, and the implication of the whole antisemitism issue as relatively trivial / overblown / a plot.

    The original story: Herod (Provincial Governor, convert to Judaism) impressed by Salome dancing, makes public to promise to give her anything, having drink taken. Her manipulative mother tells her to ask for the Head of J the B, and Herod does the deed. I think Salome is daughter of Herod.

    Certainly there could be dog whistles there. We have:

    Corbyn as innocent victim / prophet.
    SKS as week, self-serving, cowardly leader dancing to a tune.
    Jewish community as the one it is done for.
    The reason it was done - antisemitism in Labour Party - being overblown and trivial, which is the current Corbyn / Macluskey line.

    There may well be others - he's a skilled cartoonist.
    Hang on though.
    If Corbyn is John the Baptist then Starmer would be the Messiah. The one who came after him.
    And I, for one, think he's nowt more than a very naughty boy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322232057494470659

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322233070137806850

    One of the things that CV19 has taught us is that there are a whole lot of people out there who really aren't very bright.
    There speaks an armchair politician.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1322231528076836864

    Every night Mark Knoller goes to bed thinking he did a great job.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
    My recollection is that everyone here already recognised that the virus was going to have a significant impact on our lives, but thought that his booze-addled hyperbole about the millions of British deaths and bodies piling up on street corners we were going to face was simply ludicrous.

    Anyhow, in early Feb that Baldrick told us the virus would be “contagious, but essentially benign”. His drama queen act started rather later than you remember. But, at best, you were only lurking at the time ;)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Quincel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/brianschatz/status/1321823782093299712

    I would entitle it the "Fuck You John Roberts Voting Rights Act"
    Secondly they should launch impeachment hearings into 'Justice' Kavanaugh.
    Unless they have a 2/3rds majority in the Senate I'm not sure what that would achieve.
    To keep him on his toes and not come out with such shit rulings that were so wrong in fact.
    Being acquitted in the Senate by a margin of a dozen votes would really give him a scare.
    'Justice' Kavanaugh boils my piss in a way that only Mark Reckless did.
    Well, it's a stupid system for a stupid nation.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    JACK_W said:

    Some good Florida polls for Biden but I still have the state in Trumps column - just. Georgia I have in the Biden column. This is my current map :

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/BvJ21

    Looks a pretty good map,,,,GA and NC are the two i think will be very close on your map and I still am nervous of PA. I agree with you about FL, despite the good polling Its a state that seems to have its own rules and I think Trump will hang on there
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    LadyG said:

    Truly depressing. A national lockdown, de facto or de jure, is now inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775


    "Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case scenario', documents show"

    The unspoken implication is that MORE than 85,000 (the present worst case scenario) might die in the 2nd wave

    Why not just put us all in Tier 2 for 2 weeks and move the NorthWest down to that level too given the R rate there now falling
    That could be where we are heading. My sense is that Tier Two is the maximum that people will take.
    Tier 2 allows people to meet in gardens. Tier 3 doesn't. At this time of year is that really a big differentiator?
    People’s stamina and the government’s credibility are well shot beyond the point where the minutiae in policy differences between the tiers is making any difference. All that matters is the psychological effect of the tier announcements on people’s behaviour within the local areas.
    Where i am (Richmond) impression is that pub gardens are still doing a roaring business, so a lot of people are taking the rules on board. Published 7 day figures are coming down.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    williamglenn said:

    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

    Is "in full knowledge of what he's implying and it's implications" a new definition of "recklessly" I somehow missed?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    williamglenn said:

    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

    Well, he is talking about Nevada.

    Looking at Ralston's blog on NV, it will be close. The Clark firewall is at 76K and Ralston thinks it needs to be 84K to make NV safe. The GOP took a chunk out of the Dem lead in Washoe. and it looks like Trump's lead in the Rurals will be bigly. Plus NV sent a mail ballot to everyone.

    But if you want to bet that a NV election is entirely clean....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    dixiedean said:

    Re Tier 2. We have been in it in effect since September 18. A full six weeks. And we are now seeing signs of plateauing in the NE. Unlike the rest of the North.
    2 weeks of anything won't cut it at this stage.
    It's too late for that.

    Half of West Yorkshire has been in the equivalent of Tier 2 for much longer than that and it hasn't worked.

    Let's hope Tier 3 nails it round here.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    SandyRentool said:

    dixiedean said:

    Re Tier 2. We have been in it in effect since September 18. A full six weeks. And we are now seeing signs of plateauing in the NE. Unlike the rest of the North.
    2 weeks of anything won't cut it at this stage.
    It's too late for that.

    Half of West Yorkshire has been in the equivalent of Tier 2 for much longer than that and it hasn't worked.

    Let's hope Tier 3 nails it round here.
    Likewise most of Manchester, since August from memory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Hope he posts his conclusions.

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322162397164064769

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1322163580993740802
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
    My recollection is that everyone here already recognised that the virus was going to have a significant impact on our lives, but thought that his booze-addled hyperbole about the millions of British deaths and bodies piling up on street corners we were going to face was simply ludicrous.

    Anyhow, in early Feb that Baldrick told us the virus would be “contagious, but essentially benign”. His drama queen act started rather later than you remember. But, at best, you were only lurking at the time ;)
    He was obsessed with covid wasn’t he? God knows why. I remember at one point in Feb, casino asked for him to be silenced, as he was ‘hijacking’ every thread with his direful warnings. Thank God he’s gone.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    Off Topic

    Boris Johnson AND Carrie Symonds nominate the NHS for the Pride of Britain Awards. Bless!

    I hope nobody beat to that nugget. Apols of it is already out there.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    MrEd said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

    Well, he is talking about Nevada.

    Looking at Ralston's blog on NV, it will be close. The Clark firewall is at 76K and Ralston thinks it needs to be 84K to make NV safe. The GOP took a chunk out of the Dem lead in Washoe. and it looks like Trump's lead in the Rurals will be bigly. Plus NV sent a mail ballot to everyone.

    But if you want to bet that a NV election is entirely clean....
    I read his blogs a lot and couple of things,, firstly though he knows his stuff , he also likes to build a narrative and also attract attention and donations to the Nev Independant. He also isnt going to oversell how the Dems are doing to suppress any potential voters into feeling over confident.
    If you check the tables on his blog it sets out clearly about how the 'firewall' works and the permutations of what will happen in Clarke and Washoe in various situations in the run in, including best case scenarios for Trump, In every case the Dems still win.
    Trumps not winning Nevada and he knows it, hence his talk of fraud,,,,,,,again
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
    My recollection is that everyone here already recognised that the virus was going to have a significant impact on our lives, but thought that his booze-addled hyperbole about the millions of British deaths and bodies piling up on street corners we were going to face was simply ludicrous.

    Anyhow, in early Feb that Baldrick told us the virus would be “contagious, but essentially benign”. His drama queen act started rather later than you remember. But, at best, you were only lurking at the time ;)
    He was obsessed with covid wasn’t he? God knows why. I remember at one point in Feb, casino asked for him to be silenced, as he was ‘hijacking’ every thread with his direful warnings. Thank God he’s gone.
    Casino does get himself into a twist now and again. Although it is hard to see what about Baldric’s assurance that the virus would be “mostly benign” was so alarming.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Evening all :)

    A funicular of Friday polling as the last hours of the 2020 US election campaigns approach.

    Plenty of coverage of the Trafalgar polling which seems aimed more at trying to convince Trump supporters and conservatives they are still in with a chance.

    We can probably expect a deluge of late Trafalgar/Susquehanna/Insider Advantage polls to try and convince us all the race is tightening and to pull down the Biden lead averages.

    For the record, IBD/TIPP has Biden leading 51-45.

    A Marist poll for NBC News has Biden up 52-46 in North Carolina - his biggest lead - and on that basis I've moved NC into the Blue column so it's 329-163 for Biden with 46 TCTC (Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Nevada).
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    MrEd said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

    Well, he is talking about Nevada.

    Looking at Ralston's blog on NV, it will be close. The Clark firewall is at 76K and Ralston thinks it needs to be 84K to make NV safe. The GOP took a chunk out of the Dem lead in Washoe. and it looks like Trump's lead in the Rurals will be bigly. Plus NV sent a mail ballot to everyone.

    But if you want to bet that a NV election is entirely clean....
    Early in person voting in Nevada (GOP lean) closes today but the mail in (Dem lean) continues so it's likely that the Dem lead will expand through to late Monday. I'm looking at Biden +5-7 in the state that HRC won by 2.5 in 2016.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
    My recollection is that everyone here already recognised that the virus was going to have a significant impact on our lives, but thought that his booze-addled hyperbole about the millions of British deaths and bodies piling up on street corners we were going to face was simply ludicrous.

    Anyhow, in early Feb that Baldrick told us the virus would be “contagious, but essentially benign”. His drama queen act started rather later than you remember. But, at best, you were only lurking at the time ;)
    My memory isn't normally perfect and it isn't always even close, but I will say I recall someone being obsessed with how everyone needed to stock up on food and buy a mask and so on while most of us (including me) were wondering if the news from China could be trusted and the virus was really going to have a big impact in the UK or be like SARS. In hindsight I think he was both rather over the top and closer to the truth than the average one of us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    edited October 2020
    JACK_W said:

    Some good Florida polls for Biden but I still have the state in Trumps column - just. Georgia I have in the Biden column. This is my current map :

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/BvJ21

    Very close to mine, but now I am thinking FL will flip, and IA too, so have them Blue. If TX and OH go too as is quite possible, it's a landslide.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyG said:

    25,595 cases in Spain - a record.

    And we still aren't in Novermber, let alone winter

    Calm yourself, remember when some PBers back in March were posting that chart that said we'd all have Covid-19 by May.
    Remember that loony who was warning us that Coronavirus would be by far the biggest story of the year, back in early Feb? Edric, or Baldric, or something?

    Thank God we all told him to shut up, so we could go back to talking about woodburners.
    My recollection is that everyone here already recognised that the virus was going to have a significant impact on our lives, but thought that his booze-addled hyperbole about the millions of British deaths and bodies piling up on street corners we were going to face was simply ludicrous.

    Anyhow, in early Feb that Baldrick told us the virus would be “contagious, but essentially benign”. His drama queen act started rather later than you remember. But, at best, you were only lurking at the time ;)
    He was obsessed with covid wasn’t he? God knows why. I remember at one point in Feb, casino asked for him to be silenced, as he was ‘hijacking’ every thread with his direful warnings. Thank God he’s gone.
    Casino does get himself into a twist now and again. Although it is hard to see what about Baldric’s assurance that the virus would be “mostly benign” was so alarming.
    I think it was Eadric not Baldric as i recall, I dont remember the poster ever having a cunning plan, even if Baldrics never worked either.:)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    williamglenn said:

    Trump jokes about ballot stuffing.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1322243410682589185

    He is creating narrative to explain losing the election. Typical for Trumpsky AND certainly NOT a sign of confidence.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,219
    I've been saying for a while that Florida will be Trump's Putney - the one bright spot on a very bad night for him.

    But seeing as every man and his dog is now saying that too, I need to move to keep ahead.

    Biden for me. ☺
This discussion has been closed.