So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
There are those who would view a surprise Trump re-election victory as a good opportunity to have a jolly good laugh and gloat at "the Lefties" who have railed against Trump and all his works since before his election.
Most aren't Trump supporters but just enjoy watching the "woke" getting their come-uppance - that's all.
Like how we'll laugh when someone explodes a nuclear bomb in Central London because it will definitely upset the metropolitan elite.
I know you don’t like Trump Kamski but, even for you, it’s going a bit far to use the analogy of an event that would kill hundreds of thousands of people and leave London uninhabitable for decades.
Like you said earlier, what businesses want most is certainty, stability and a sense of fairness. And whether it's Covid or Brexit, this government is unwilling or unable to provide that. In fact, some of its instincts are to smash things up in the hope of creative destruction.
...
Businesses or anybody wanting "certainty" and "stability" at the moment is putting their hands over their ears and shouting "LA, LA, LA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU"
I reckon FL stays red. These figures don't look good for the Dems there, though the Hispanic community is more right wing Cubans than other States. Possibly some changing by Dems who have not voted Dem for years too. Not much evidence for @MrEd claim that there are lots of black Trumpers.
I reckon FL stays red. These figures don't look good for the Dems there, though the Hispanic community is more right wing Cubans than other States. Possibly some changing by Dems who have not voted Dem for years too. Not much evidence for @MrEd claim that there are lots of black Trumpers.
Are these net or gross numbers? FL is where rich white people go to die, so you would expect there to be both an inflow (from places colder than Florida) and an outflow (to a place hotter than Florida) of Republican voters.
The SNP thankfully seize on support for independence as a distraction from their internal bickering and abject incompetence, and ride the wave of grievance to a majority at Holyrood next year.
Keep gnashing those teeth and praying for discord, bye bye rotten UK.
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
I reckon FL stays red. These figures don't look good for the Dems there, though the Hispanic community is more right wing Cubans than other States. Possibly some changing by Dems who have not voted Dem for years too. Not much evidence for @MrEd claim that there are lots of black Trumpers.
Are these net or gross numbers? FL is where rich white people go to die, so you would expect there to be both an inflow (from places colder than Florida) and an outflow (to a place hotter than Florida) of Republican voters.
It says net in the introductory sentence.
A lot of the former felons would be poor whites, a very Trumpy demographic.
Biden could win on the basis of turnout, but it is an up hill task. FL may not be typical of other States though, as Trump has so many local connections.
Yes I’m furious. And I make no apologies for it. People with not a shred of decency, integrity, competence or common-sense between them are destroying my children’s futures. While shovelling money at their friends.
And I am like the proverbial lioness with cubs with anyone, anyone, who harms or tries to harm my children. I’m not interested in writing letters to MPs anymore so that some idiot intern can read and file and send some bland reply. I want them to hear my anger, to see my anger, to understand what they're doing and feel, even for one instance, some sense of shame for their actions.
I normally try to be polite. But when I’m angry, I’m really angry. Volcanoes would have a hard time keeping up. And this is one of those times.
Imagine that magnified millions of times and the arses are destroying your country.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
I reckon FL stays red. These figures don't look good for the Dems there, though the Hispanic community is more right wing Cubans than other States. Possibly some changing by Dems who have not voted Dem for years too. Not much evidence for @MrEd claim that there are lots of black Trumpers.
Are these net or gross numbers? FL is where rich white people go to die, so you would expect there to be both an inflow (from places colder than Florida) and an outflow (to a place hotter than Florida) of Republican voters.
Very good. This early in the morning before coffee I had to read that twice to make sure I'd got that correctly.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
The bad thing is I imagine that would make some people smile.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
SAGE members publicly coming out with this view as well now. I think local was fine when it was <5-10% of the country impacted, but gets silly and divisive when its much higher than that and now its over 50%.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
Tim Martin is a bit of a dick. And he's also a bit optimistic: being more swedish would help, but it's no panacea. Still, no one should wish him or his business ill.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
Virtually every country in Europe of any size is going for the local approach in a sensible attempt to balance health, the economy and, yes, public support. Why on earth should an area with minimal infection be virtually closed down when it is not needed?
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
Tim Martin is a bit of a dick. And he's also a bit optimistic: being more swedish would help, but it's no panacea. Still, no one should wish him or his business ill.
Why not? Its not for me, but lots of people dont like certain companies whether its Amazon, Apple, Sports Direct or Wetherspoons. I can't really get worked up enough about them but it seems a perfectly reasonable emotion to have.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
The bad thing is I imagine that would make some people smile.
It should not.
Shades of Biggus Dickus. "Is there anybody else here who finds the plight of Mr Martin's pubco risible?"
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
I think PtP was joking. No way Meeks and Nick are Trump supporters.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
Virtually every country in Europe of any size is going for the local approach in a sensible attempt to balance health, the economy and, yes, public support. Why on earth should an area with minimal infection be virtually closed down when it is not needed?
Nowhere on the UK mainland has minimal infection rates anymore. The lowest places like Highland or Pembrokeshire are double or treble the summer national averages and only low because of their relative geographical isolation.
If true, we are much closer to herd immunity than any official view has confirmed.
???
If we sustained that 150,000 per day (which was seen at the time as catastrophic and was the final peak rather than a constant rate, but let’s do the arithmetic)
To get around 45,000,000 infected for herd immunity would take 45,000,000/150,000 days.
300 days running constantly at the worst level on the worst day of the first wave.
Every day at that rate gets us one third of one percent of the way to herd immunity.
I’m not convinced that it means a long way to herd immunity.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
Virtually every country in Europe of any size is going for the local approach in a sensible attempt to balance health, the economy and, yes, public support. Why on earth should an area with minimal infection be virtually closed down when it is not needed?
I appreciate that, but I just explained why in my post. It's not something I'm adamant about; more of a feeling. Perhaps it makes more sense to have more localised policies in larger, more sparsely populated countries than the UK, and I don't think it's too much of a problem to have different policies for the countries of the UK. But targeting individual cities and areas just seems to be causing confusion and resentment which will ultimately be counter-productive.
For all its faults, and echochamber nature, there is some good stuff there. For example Sumter County will report early and may be a a good way of assessing how Biden is winning white seniors.
As an aside, I do find the extremely racial nature of US voting analysis rather depressing. I know we have some similar trends in the UK, but nowhere near as marked.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
I think localised rules are inevitable though, even within counties. Looking at Leics:
Charnwood has Loughborough Uni, Oadby and Wigston and Leicester itself remain the hotspots, but the other areas of the county are much lower. Restricting economic activities there in the interest of equality is pointless. We may need those economic resources for more important stuff, not least subsidising businesses closed in the hotspots.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
Tim Martin is a bit of a dick. And he's also a bit optimistic: being more swedish would help, but it's no panacea. Still, no one should wish him or his business ill.
Why not? Its not for me, but lots of people dont like certain companies whether its Amazon, Apple, Sports Direct or Wetherspoons. I can't really get worked up enough about them but it seems a perfectly reasonable emotion to have.
Why not?
Because the reason Martin is struggling is the same reason Miss Cyclefree Jr and thousands of other landlords up and down the country are struggling.
This isn't unique to Martin where Martin alone is struggling it applies to the entire sector.
Plus when companies go bust it will be far more the independents who are first to fail not the megachains like his that will more easily get finance etc
For all its faults, and echochamber nature, there is some good stuff there. For example Sumter County will report early and may be a a good way of assessing how Biden is winning white seniors.
As an aside, I do find the extremely racial nature of US voting analysis rather depressing. I know we have some similar trends in the UK, but nowhere near as marked.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
I think localised rules are inevitable though, even within counties. Looking at Leics:
Charnwood has Loughborough Uni, Oadby and Wigston and Leicester itself remain the hotspots, but the other areas of the county are much lower. Restricting economic activities there in the interest of equality is pointless. We may need those economic resources for more important stuff, not least subsidising businesses closed in the hotspots.
That's a good argument, but if cases continue to rise in the hotspots because people feel unfairly targeted and compliance falls, or if they travel to e.g. pubs in the areas of low incidence, then it won't be long before cases start to rise there too.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
Tim Martin is a bit of a dick. And he's also a bit optimistic: being more swedish would help, but it's no panacea. Still, no one should wish him or his business ill.
Why not? Its not for me, but lots of people dont like certain companies whether its Amazon, Apple, Sports Direct or Wetherspoons. I can't really get worked up enough about them but it seems a perfectly reasonable emotion to have.
Why not?
Because the reason Martin is struggling is the same reason Miss Cyclefree Jr and thousands of other landlords up and down the country are struggling.
This isn't unique to Martin where Martin alone is struggling it applies to the entire sector.
Plus when companies go bust it will be far more the independents who are first to fail not the megachains like his that will more easily get finance etc
Is that really difficult for you to understand?
It is so easy to understand that nobody understands why you felt the need to say it in the first place. You are not addressing a class of 5 year olds.
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What would you expect the largest publican in the country to say?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
Tim Martin is a bit of a dick. And he's also a bit optimistic: being more swedish would help, but it's no panacea. Still, no one should wish him or his business ill.
Why not? Its not for me, but lots of people dont like certain companies whether its Amazon, Apple, Sports Direct or Wetherspoons. I can't really get worked up enough about them but it seems a perfectly reasonable emotion to have.
Why not?
Because the reason Martin is struggling is the same reason Miss Cyclefree Jr and thousands of other landlords up and down the country are struggling.
This isn't unique to Martin where Martin alone is struggling it applies to the entire sector.
Plus when companies go bust it will be far more the independents who are first to fail not the megachains like his that will more easily get finance etc
Is that really difficult for you to understand?
The world is full of different motivations, I have no issue with spoons at all, they do a good job of reaching their target market and its very good value. But if someone doesnt like the standardisation of pubs across the country, or the way they treat their workers, or their mix of politics and business, or just dont like pubs and alcohol at all, that is fine too. Their views are valid just like mine and yours are.
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
I would.
Add insult to injury
AIUI he would not see it as an insult, more an added extra.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
Its not that complicated though is it? And at the heart of the matter is cost, in money terms and in health/well-being terms too. Absolutely a similar lockdown to March would drive the virus down, but at what cost? How many cancers get missed? how many heart attacks kill patients too scared to leave the house? How much depression is there? Far better to find the balance point that gets R below 1 and keep as much going as possible. The Tier 3 restrictions are not lockdown. Shops are open, restaurants are open, albeit you can on attend with your bubble. Clearly I think we need to bite the bullet and return the furlough to 80% for businesses forced to close. We do though, need to give the current level of restriction time to work through. And people need to accept that sometimes, life is a bit sh!t and get on with it.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
The public's image of image of business people is dominated either by the bullshitters they see on the Apprentice or from memories of DelBoy and Arthur Daley.
I suspect politicians hold this view as well ie business is about giving out big talk and 'wheeler-dealing' rather than adding any value while following a myriad of regulations and laws.
I reckon FL stays red. These figures don't look good for the Dems there, though the Hispanic community is more right wing Cubans than other States. Possibly some changing by Dems who have not voted Dem for years too. Not much evidence for @MrEd claim that there are lots of black Trumpers.
Interesting vox pop on Ch4 News from a golf course in Florida. The interviewer asked a woman if she was voting Trump. She replied 'I'm a Republican'. 'So are you voting Trump?' 'Well I always vote for the Republican Party'. 'So you are voting for Trump?' 'No' she said 'I'm voting for the Republican President'
An embarrassment many Tories will face at the next election!
538 gives 87% chance, The Economist, 91%. YouGov doesn`t give a % chance but has even more confidence that the other two on a Biden win, predicting 363/175 outcome.
538 gives 87% chance, The Economist, 91%. YouGov doesn`t give a % chance but has even more confidence that the other two on a Biden win, predicting 363/175 outcome.
Betfair punter factoring in the enormous voter fraud and suppression the GOP will undertake that is not baked into the models.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
Thats true, but my surprise is how many still react that way this far in. By this point no one should really be surprised at how precarious a position businesses are in.
The whole idea of having different rules for different areas seems a bad one. Yes, in an ideal world, you'd target areas of different infection differently, but the drawbacks are manifold. It's complicated, people feel unfairly treated and businesses cannot cope with the uncertainty. And given that people travel about, it wouldn't be long anyway before the rates pick up in areas of low infection, so the benefits are pretty limited.
It's problematic. Germany has the same issues applying local lockdowns with in their case, powerful local fiefdoms. The core of the issue is that you are acting locally but applying centrally. There is no local accountability and in the case of the UK, the central government is acting arbitrarily and in a somewhat partisan way with lockdowns depending on whether local politicians are Conservative or Labour.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
"No deal is better than a bad deal." This truism is now being mouthed by the French. But a bad deal is what we are likely to get. Walk away Boris!
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
The reason why we are going into lockdown again is because Johnson failed to keep a lid on virus spread while he had a chance. Denial of responsibility rather than lack of understanding, I suggest.
EDIT and the above comment applies even more so to Fraser Nelson. I don't recall him urging people to be careful over the summer.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Belgium just posted 10.5k new cases, that's 63k equivalent for the UK. I do wonder what kind of adherence the population is showing to whatever measures are in place. It must be quite low.
Neat graphic from nytimes on COVID spread. I had not realized that the Mid-West is doing worst at the moment and is approaching the levels the North East saw in April.
Feels like that must have some big political impact but not honestly sure what. Perhaps bad for Trump? Perhaps bad for Governors? Perhaps reduce turnout? Perhaps increase turnout if everyone mails in a ballot?
To me it justifies the idea that the polls are more likely than normal to be off in this election.
I don't see value on Trump, but I don't feel like Biden is value below 1.3/1.4 given the uncertainties...
"No deal is better than a bad deal." This truism is now being mouthed by the French. But a bad deal is what we are likely to get. Walk away Boris!
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
Rather silly quote. All those would be said with a good deal and a bad deal, since you have to help the other side sell their bad deal if it is good for you (assuming it is not good for both, which is possible)
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
I think PtP was joking. No way Meeks and Nick are Trump supporters.
Lol. No.
Mind you, when I was in an American school in 1960, we had a mock election, and I volunteered to be Nixon's spokesman in the debate (I don't think there were no genuine Republicans, but most kids were shy). I was 10, a communist, and privately thought Kennedy was too confrontational with the Soviets and China, while Nixon was a realpolitik man who would be able to do deals without the right wing blocking them. In some ways (missile crisis, China) I wasn't altogether wrong.
More seriously (hey, that was 60 years ago) I'm desperate for Biden to win, but I do still worry that Trump might make it. Watching the clips from last night, my subjective feeling was that Trump was fighting hard while Biden was intelligent but boring. Might a floating voter not prefer the former?
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Tim 'Spoons on R4: Sweden, Swedes, Sweden, Swedish position, Sweden, Sweden, Sweden etc.
There's a surprise.
What about Narnia? They had no cases at all and didn't lock down. The economy's doing great (fine, exports to Calormen and the Lone Islands are down a bit, but that's to be expected with Aslan around). All we have to do is find a magic God-avatar lion and we're sorted.
I need to sign off. Brexit decision day (again), I understand. Johnson wants a deal. But that isn't the question. The question is whether he is prepared to make the necessary compromises to agree the deal that will be on offer.
"No deal is better than a bad deal." This truism is now being mouthed by the French. But a bad deal is what we are likely to get. Walk away Boris!
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
Rather silly quote. All those would be said with a good deal and a bad deal, since you have to help the other side sell their bad deal if it is good for you (assuming it is not good for both, which is possible)
That's a fair point.
But if the French won't compromise we should make it clear they're getting as much from our waters as they'll get from Iceland's and walk away.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
The reason why we are going into lockdown again is because Johnson failed to keep a lid on virus spread while he had a chance. Denial of responsibility rather than lack of understanding, I suggest.
EDIT and the above comment applies even more so to Fraser Nelson. I don't recall him urging people to be careful over the summer.
The only way to keep a lid on the virus was no international travel, no schools and no universities.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Watching the clips from last night, my subjective feeling was that Trump was fighting hard while Biden was intelligent but boring. Might a floating voter not prefer the former?
"No deal is better than a bad deal." This truism is now being mouthed by the French. But a bad deal is what we are likely to get. Walk away Boris!
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
Rather silly quote. All those would be said with a good deal and a bad deal, since you have to help the other side sell their bad deal if it is good for you (assuming it is not good for both, which is possible)
Not a silly quote if you know readers are desperate to hear of any betrayal and will flock to whoever can Brexit hardest and purest.
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
"No deal is better than a bad deal." This truism is now being mouthed by the French. But a bad deal is what we are likely to get. Walk away Boris!
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
Rather silly quote. All those would be said with a good deal and a bad deal, since you have to help the other side sell their bad deal if it is good for you (assuming it is not good for both, which is possible)
Not a silly quote if you know readers are desperate to hear of any betrayal and will flock to whoever can Brexit hardest and purest.
There never was, or can be, a Brexit to satisfy the ultras, for then they would have to take responsibility for something in the real world. Sticking with the fantasy world of their imaginations is more comfortable.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
He could ask his wife, whose job it is to explain government policy to the rest of us?
Are we stuck in some well lubricated Spectator editorial conference gone wrong?
Why does this cosy metropolitan clique have so much control?
Because the Tories won a big majority by appealing to northern heartlands to vote against the metropolitan elite and replace it with people from working class schools like Eton, those from traditional working class castles and salt of the earth sons of baronets.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
He could ask his wife, whose job it is to explain government policy to the rest of us?
Are we stuck in some well lubricated Spectator editorial conference gone wrong?
Why does this cosy metropolitan clique have so much control?
Because the Tories won a big majority by appealing to northern heartlands to vote against the metropolitan elite and replace it with people from working class schools like Eton, those from traditional working class castles and salt of the earth sons of baronets.
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.
I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
We really need a list of all the different places under various restrictions, when those restrictions started and what the rate of infections subsequently were.
It would be possible to get an idea of how effective or not the restrictions are.
Fraser Nelson questions the lockdown strategy today in Telegraph, asking why on earth we need to do this? The NHS doesn't need protection. Excellent piece.
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
The reason why we are going into lockdown again is because Johnson failed to keep a lid on virus spread while he had a chance. Denial of responsibility rather than lack of understanding, I suggest.
EDIT and the above comment applies even more so to Fraser Nelson. I don't recall him urging people to be careful over the summer.
I don't think that's fair. Ultimately we're here because people who are at minute risk of death have realised that and are acting accordingly - they don't give a fuck anymore. Coupled with low rates of self isolation and it's a perfect storm of viral spread.
It's not about people being careful, it's that everyone is sick of living a half life. I'm not in the "let it rip" camp but I definitely understand those that are. We are where we are to save up to half a million mostly very old people from dying, in a lot of cases we're talking about months of additional life and in very few more than a handful of years. A lot of these people already live medically assisted lives or have very low quality of life. Against that the young, middle aged and just retired have been asked to make huge lifestyle sacrifices for an indeterminate period, patience among the young has already gone. Patience among the middle aged is almost gone as well. What was once a horrible idea now becomes a matter of personal risk. I'm at basically no risk, neither is my wife, neither are our friends or immediate family.
Whatever tier 2 or tier 3/4/5 rules come into place, I'm going to simply ignore them. I've reached a stage where the responsibility should now be placed on those vulnerable people to keep themselves away from the virus, rather than on the rest of us to keep it away from them. Call it selfish if you want, I have no contact with anyone over the age of 70, neither do our friends. Even my parents have decided not to see older relatives because they would rather stay in contact with their kids and granddaughter.
The carefulness needs to come from people who are at risk coupled with proper isolation for people who have caught it. Low risk people are going to get on with life one way or another.
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
Being fat does increase the risk of complications a bit, but it is something like 50% so not a game changer for Covid-19.
We really need a list of all the different places under various restrictions, when those restrictions started and what the rate of infections subsequently were.
It would be possible to get an idea of how effective or not the restrictions are.
Yeah, especially if they could be arranged into a Latin square factorial design. Then we'd have answers!
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
Governments have been campaigning against obesity for about 30 years, during which time the problem has got worse.
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
Its a problem. Despite maintaining a decent level of exercise I am too fat because I am drinking too much and eating the wrong stuff. However, I am still in the relatively early stages of treatment for depression, am starting out into working for myself with a high stakes high risk contract, am selling one house and buying another, am now seriously worried about the health of my parents and of course we have the pox.
I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
You have the weight of the world, haven't you. However, a word of caution. If you are on medication for depression, I suggest you take extra care with the booze. In any event it's one of those drugs where a little can be relaxing, a lot makes things worse.
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
Being fat does increase the risk of complications a bit, but it is something like 50% so not a game changer for Covid-19.
Good for us in other ways of course.
50% increased risk not a game changer? And fatness is good in some way? That's a heterodoc position.
One thing the government should have done was make a big push on general health and fitness especially obesity.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
Being fat does increase the risk of complications a bit, but it is something like 50% so not a game changer for Covid-19.
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
I think PtP was joking. No way Meeks and Nick are Trump supporters.
Lol. No.
Mind you, when I was in an American school in 1960, we had a mock election, and I volunteered to be Nixon's spokesman in the debate (I don't think there were no genuine Republicans, but most kids were shy). I was 10, a communist, and privately thought Kennedy was too confrontational with the Soviets and China, while Nixon was a realpolitik man who would be able to do deals without the right wing blocking them. In some ways (missile crisis, China) I wasn't altogether wrong.
More seriously (hey, that was 60 years ago) I'm desperate for Biden to win, but I do still worry that Trump might make it. Watching the clips from last night, my subjective feeling was that Trump was fighting hard while Biden was intelligent but boring. Might a floating voter not prefer the former?
PB is stocked with Shy Trumpets but part of the thing about being a shy Trumpet is not revealing your Trumpet nature.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
Very wrong Peter, I would not piss on the great orange buffoon if he was on fire.
I think PtP was joking. No way Meeks and Nick are Trump supporters.
Lol. No.
Mind you, when I was in an American school in 1960, we had a mock election, and I volunteered to be Nixon's spokesman in the debate (I don't think there were no genuine Republicans, but most kids were shy). I was 10, a communist, and privately thought Kennedy was too confrontational with the Soviets and China, while Nixon was a realpolitik man who would be able to do deals without the right wing blocking them. In some ways (missile crisis, China) I wasn't altogether wrong.
More seriously (hey, that was 60 years ago) I'm desperate for Biden to win, but I do still worry that Trump might make it. Watching the clips from last night, my subjective feeling was that Trump was fighting hard while Biden was intelligent but boring. Might a floating voter not prefer the former?
You were a communist.. at the age of 10?
You truly are weird.
Another one who has swung to the right as he got older.
"No deal is better than a bad deal." This truism is now being mouthed by the French. But a bad deal is what we are likely to get. Walk away Boris!
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
They also don’t appreciate the on costs. I am sure your daughter will have been running with reduced range and stock but fresh food and real ale go off quickly. There are still plenty of outgoings outside of wages, and current subsidies only part pay furlough wages and employers is expected to pay NI and pensions contributions on wages.
Are they expected to pay NI and Pensions on the 66% scheme? Which should be an 80% scheme.
Comments
There's a surprise.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1316959871405854721?s=09
A lot of the former felons would be poor whites, a very Trumpy demographic.
Biden could win on the basis of turnout, but it is an up hill task. FL may not be typical of other States though, as Trump has so many local connections.
Can't it stay down for a while longer?
His business relies on huge volume, much more so than other pub companies, with expensive high street locations and selling based on price. They must be in serious financial trouble.
It should not.
If we sustained that 150,000 per day (which was seen at the time as catastrophic and was the final peak rather than a constant rate, but let’s do the arithmetic)
To get around 45,000,000 infected for herd immunity would take 45,000,000/150,000 days.
300 days running constantly at the worst level on the worst day of the first wave.
Every day at that rate gets us one third of one percent of the way to herd immunity.
I’m not convinced that it means a long way to herd immunity.
As an aside, I do find the extremely racial nature of US voting analysis rather depressing. I know we have some similar trends in the UK, but nowhere near as marked.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1316748962418786310?s=19 I think localised rules are inevitable though, even within counties. Looking at Leics:
Charnwood has Loughborough Uni, Oadby and Wigston and Leicester itself remain the hotspots, but the other areas of the county are much lower. Restricting economic activities there in the interest of equality is pointless. We may need those economic resources for more important stuff, not least subsidising businesses closed in the hotspots.
Because the reason Martin is struggling is the same reason Miss Cyclefree Jr and thousands of other landlords up and down the country are struggling.
This isn't unique to Martin where Martin alone is struggling it applies to the entire sector.
Plus when companies go bust it will be far more the independents who are first to fail not the megachains like his that will more easily get finance etc
Is that really difficult for you to understand?
Add insult to injury
And people need to accept that sometimes, life is a bit sh!t and get on with it.
I suspect politicians hold this view as well ie business is about giving out big talk and 'wheeler-dealing' rather than adding any value while following a myriad of regulations and laws.
An embarrassment many Tories will face at the next election!
538 gives 87% chance, The Economist, 91%. YouGov doesn`t give a % chance but has even more confidence that the other two on a Biden win, predicting 363/175 outcome.
https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1316559942397067265?s=19
"For reasons even the Cabinet can’t quite understand, it seems that we’re about to enter the cycle all over again – and a Prime Minister who isn’t quite sure how he got into this mess may well struggle to find a way out."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/15/boris-sleepwalking-national-lockdown-claims-despise/
How should we know if a bad deal is on the way? Watch the political briefings and spin lines from pliant MPs. Lots of references to ‘sensible compromises’, ‘middle ways’, ‘balanced agreements’, ‘getting Brexit done’ and mentions of the background of the coronavirus epidemic should set alarm bells ringing.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/brexiteers-beware-a-bad-deal-is-still-a-real-risk
EDIT and the above comment applies even more so to Fraser Nelson. I don't recall him urging people to be careful over the summer.
Neat graphic from nytimes on COVID spread. I had not realized that the Mid-West is doing worst at the moment and is approaching the levels the North East saw in April.
Feels like that must have some big political impact but not honestly sure what. Perhaps bad for Trump? Perhaps bad for Governors? Perhaps reduce turnout? Perhaps increase turnout if everyone mails in a ballot?
To me it justifies the idea that the polls are more likely than normal to be off in this election.
I don't see value on Trump, but I don't feel like Biden is value below 1.3/1.4 given the uncertainties...
Mind you, when I was in an American school in 1960, we had a mock election, and I volunteered to be Nixon's spokesman in the debate (I don't think there were no genuine Republicans, but most kids were shy). I was 10, a communist, and privately thought Kennedy was too confrontational with the Soviets and China, while Nixon was a realpolitik man who would be able to do deals without the right wing blocking them. In some ways (missile crisis, China) I wasn't altogether wrong.
More seriously (hey, that was 60 years ago) I'm desperate for Biden to win, but I do still worry that Trump might make it. Watching the clips from last night, my subjective feeling was that Trump was fighting hard while Biden was intelligent but boring. Might a floating voter not prefer the former?
Why does this cosy metropolitan clique have so much control?
They had no cases at all and didn't lock down. The economy's doing great (fine, exports to Calormen and the Lone Islands are down a bit, but that's to be expected with Aslan around).
All we have to do is find a magic God-avatar lion and we're sorted.
The dreary tragedy continues...
But if the French won't compromise we should make it clear they're getting as much from our waters as they'll get from Iceland's and walk away.
Boris has referenced how being fat was detrimental to him but they should have had an 'obesity kills' campaign similar to the old anti-smoking campaigns.
I think a wee bit of indulgence is allowable in the circumstances. Can't do it forever, but the loading thats on me now won't be on me forever. And I know its not just me - most of my friends are in similar boats sitting slightly lower in the water due to increased weight.
It would be possible to get an idea of how effective or not the restrictions are.
A thin deal is precisely what we want, not being tied in to the EU.
The thicker the deal, the more I'm concerned about it.
It's not about people being careful, it's that everyone is sick of living a half life. I'm not in the "let it rip" camp but I definitely understand those that are. We are where we are to save up to half a million mostly very old people from dying, in a lot of cases we're talking about months of additional life and in very few more than a handful of years. A lot of these people already live medically assisted lives or have very low quality of life. Against that the young, middle aged and just retired have been asked to make huge lifestyle sacrifices for an indeterminate period, patience among the young has already gone. Patience among the middle aged is almost gone as well. What was once a horrible idea now becomes a matter of personal risk. I'm at basically no risk, neither is my wife, neither are our friends or immediate family.
Whatever tier 2 or tier 3/4/5 rules come into place, I'm going to simply ignore them. I've reached a stage where the responsibility should now be placed on those vulnerable people to keep themselves away from the virus, rather than on the rest of us to keep it away from them. Call it selfish if you want, I have no contact with anyone over the age of 70, neither do our friends. Even my parents have decided not to see older relatives because they would rather stay in contact with their kids and granddaughter.
The carefulness needs to come from people who are at risk coupled with proper isolation for people who have caught it. Low risk people are going to get on with life one way or another.
Good for us in other ways of course.
Best of luck, though.
New thread
And fatness is good in some way?
That's a heterodoc position.
You truly are weird.
Are you right in the head, Wallace is dead over 700 years, FFS grow up assuming you actually are over 16.