I've heard that many of the infected students are having their infections registered in their family locations rather than in their student locations - similar to how students might be registered to vote in different places.
Does anyone know if this is correct ?
IIRC, was told by friend in emergency management for local government, that something similar happened with numbers here in WA State re: college students contracting the Crud being credited (if that's right word) to home county (very often King Co) instead of the (much smaller) counties where they're attending school.
Like many things the data is lacking detail and differentiation.
And without that making decisions becomes harder.
Not that politicians tend to be good on the details to begin with.
I'm currently reading Scum of the Earth, by Arthur Koestler.
It's his autobiography of his time in France around the start of the World War 2. He's arrested, sent to a camp, released, rearrested, talks his way out, joins the Foreign Legion, and eventually deserts that to come to Britain...
It's a really fascinating look at the Fall of France (the book was written in 1941, so it's far from clear who will win the war), plus a look at the disintegration of a society (with some interesting parallels to what's going on now.)
It's also utterly compelling and very well written.
I'm currently reading Scum of the Earth, by Arthur Koestler.
It's his autobiography of his time in France around the start of the World War 2. He's arrested, sent to a camp, released, rearrested, talks his way out, joins the Foreign Legion, and eventually deserts that to come to Britain...
It's a really fascinating look at the Fall of France (the book was written in 1941, so it's far from clear who will win the war), plus a look at the disintegration of a society (with some interesting parallels to what's going on now.)
It's also utterly compelling and very well written.
I highly recommend it.
$7.99 with one click onto my Kindle. Thanks for the recommendation.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
Like you said earlier, what businesses want most is certainty, stability and a sense of fairness. And whether it's Covid or Brexit, this government is unwilling or unable to provide that. In fact, some of its instincts are to smash things up in the hope of creative destruction.
(Actually, how far down the Cabinet pecking order do you have to go before you get to an actual business(wo)man, as opposed to a banker or hedgefunder? Jeremy Hunt and Phil Spreadsheet both had experience in that area, but they've long gone.)
I would say HYUFD, Marquee Mark and Charles are shy Trumpers. Possibly Andy JS.
No, I want Biden to win, but only by a small margin. The reason is that if the Democrats win by a landslide there's a danger they'll make the same mistakes that led to the Trump phenomenon in the first place.
I would say HYUFD, Marquee Mark and Charles are shy Trumpers. Possibly Andy JS.
I am not Marquee maybe, Charles' wife is a rich moderate republican from Orange County, California which went Democrat for the first time since 1936 at a presidential election when it voted for Hillary in 2016 so he is unlikely too
By way of light relief, is John Sopel the worst US correspondent the BBC has ever had ? Admittedly there’s some fairly stiff competition for that accolade, but he is truly awful.
He's pretty bad but increasingly they send the truly dreadful James Naughtie to do specialized stories.
Is there anyone at the BBC today who is even close to the standard of Alistair Cooke and Charles Wheeler?
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
Yes - this too.
The government needs to realise the huge damage it is doing and the amount of anger its “fuck you” approach is generating. It will come back to bite them.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Big question whether the move to Yes is structural, which the podcast didn't fully answer. My guess is that the Union isn't quite a lost cause yet but the circumstances that might rescue it are unlikely to transpire quickly enough. Even if Johnson goes I don't see the Conservatives shaking off their English nationalism and become a multi-cultural, open party of all nations but they are going to be in power for another four years as far as we know. Plenty of time for the consensus to independence to be embedded.
Nothing is structural though is it? Everything is a feeling. You have ebbing and flowing and momentum, but it's still all based on sentiment - on emotion. And those are transient by their nature.
I suppose. Scotland could go back to being a Labour fiefdom again. I don't see it. In the meantime, I suspect the independence consensus will firm up.
The Partis Quebecois polled over 38% in every Quebec election from 1976 to 1998 and 49% in 1981 and the Bloc Quebecois also got 49% in Quebec in the 1993 Canadian general election and yet Quebec is still part of Canada
I think what happened in Quebec is that the Quebecois discovered they could get autonomy on most of the stuff that mattered to them, while getting the benefits of the bigger state. Cake and eat it I guess. Actually something similar happened in Scotland in the 18th C after an initial dodgy patch following the Act of Union.
It could happen here too, but none of it's happening right now.
That is exactly what happened in Quebec. In the long run though the 'English' money and business went down to Toronto which boomed. Quebec toiled, partly through maladministration. It's kind of ok, but Montreal isn't the great city it once was.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
That could have been written by my Daughter.
She’s close to giving up. The job is no longer enjoyable or profitable. It is stress after stress after stress. She worries about her staff, so much so she is not sleeping properly. At 26 she has more decency in her little finger than exists in the whole of this government of incompetent crooks. Fuck the lot of them.
Sorry about your daughter's sorry situation. Fact that she's worried for her workers tells me she's exactly the kind of person we (globally-humanly speaking) need in her profession - the best kind of entrepreneur, employer and community enterprise
Clearly lots of small businesses have been horribly (and too-often fatally) whipsawed during the pandemic. With the hospitality industry facing way above-average pressure and risk.
All governments everywhere are reeling from COVID-19, and nearly all have fallen short in often quite serious ways. BUT methinks that both Johnson and Trump stand out as leaders of key national governments whose pandemic performance has been seriously spotty at best, and criminally shambolic at worst.
IF that's true, then why? Partly, and evidently, answer is incapacity and incompetence at very top, and within No. 10 / White House sanctum scanctorum.
BUT is that where the rot ends? Certainly would seem to require PLENTY of screwing up lower down, that can NOT be blamed entirely or even mostly on BoJo and Trumpsky.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
Like you said earlier, what businesses want most is certainty, stability and a sense of fairness. And whether it's Covid or Brexit, this government is unwilling or unable to provide that. In fact, some of its instincts are to smash things up in the hope of creative destruction.
(Actually, how far down the Cabinet pecking order do you have to go before you get to an actual business(wo)man, as opposed to a banker or hedgefunder? Jeremy Hunt and Phil Spreadsheet both had experience in that area, but they've long gone.)
Ironically it is probably Grant Shapps. Not a great advert for business acumen and probity.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Big question whether the move to Yes is structural, which the podcast didn't fully answer. My guess is that the Union isn't quite a lost cause yet but the circumstances that might rescue it are unlikely to transpire quickly enough. Even if Johnson goes I don't see the Conservatives shaking off their English nationalism and become a multi-cultural, open party of all nations but they are going to be in power for another four years as far as we know. Plenty of time for the consensus to independence to be embedded.
Nothing is structural though is it? Everything is a feeling. You have ebbing and flowing and momentum, but it's still all based on sentiment - on emotion. And those are transient by their nature.
I suppose. Scotland could go back to being a Labour fiefdom again. I don't see it. In the meantime, I suspect the independence consensus will firm up.
The Partis Quebecois polled over 38% in every Quebec election from 1976 to 1998 and 49% in 1981 and the Bloc Quebecois also got 49% in Quebec in the 1993 Canadian general election and yet Quebec is still part of Canada
I think what happened in Quebec is that the Quebecois discovered they could get autonomy on most of the stuff that mattered to them, while getting the benefits of the bigger state. Cake and eat it I guess. Actually something similar happened in Scotland in the 18th C after an initial dodgy patch following the Act of Union.
It could happen here too, but none of it's happening right now.
I suspect a similar devomax and a softer Brexit under PM Starmer or Sunak in 5 to 10 years or so would be the likely solution
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I was thinking as a general trend rather than literally each posher than the last, given the rise of the Etonians and prospect, however silly, of JRM. Goldsmith may well actually be posher, but we'd need someone who comes across as posher than JRM.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
Yes - this too.
The government needs to realise the huge damage it is doing and the amount of anger its “fuck you” approach is generating. It will come back to bite them.
I was talking to a level headed mate of mine earlier who was furious with the new measures. I heard myself asking him ‘who represents us?’ - it seems the main political Parties offer no answers other than lockdown
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
That could have been written by my Daughter.
She’s close to giving up. The job is no longer enjoyable or profitable. It is stress after stress after stress. She worries about her staff, so much so she is not sleeping properly. At 26 she has more decency in her little finger than exists in the whole of this government of incompetent crooks. Fuck the lot of them.
Sorry about your daughter's sorry situation. Fact that she's worried for her workers tells me she's exactly the kind of person we (globally-humanly speaking) need in her profession - the best kind of entrepreneur, employer and community enterprise
Clearly lots of small businesses have been horribly (and too-often fatally) whipsawed during the pandemic. With the hospitality industry facing way above-average pressure and risk.
All governments everywhere are reeling from COVID-19, and nearly all have fallen short in often quite serious ways. BUT methinks that both Johnson and Trump stand out as leaders of key national governments whose pandemic performance has been seriously spotty at best, and criminally shambolic at worst.
IF that's true, then why? Partly, and evidently, answer is incapacity and incompetence at very top, and within No. 10 / White House sanctum scanctorum.
BUT is that where the rot ends? Certainly would seem to require PLENTY of screwing up lower down, that can NOT be blamed entirely or even mostly on BoJo and Trumpsky.
If the key criteria for employment in a government is blind loyalty to the leader, then you are going to have very few talented people around. Good Tory ministers, MPs and also govt civil servants have been forced out and replaced with compliant yes men.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
If true, we are much closer to herd immunity than any official view has confirmed.
Something I have long suspected
But if lots of people caught it then, there wouldn't be so many people to catch it now, yet it seems to be spreading.
Unless, of course, we have the same level of immunity as we do to the common cold. Which wouldn't be great. But would kick herd immunity and zero Covid into touch. Thus annoying both extremes. Maybe CV 19 is a radical centrist?
By way of light relief, is John Sopel the worst US correspondent the BBC has ever had ? Admittedly there’s some fairly stiff competition for that accolade, but he is truly awful.
He's pretty bad but increasingly they send the truly dreadful James Naughtie to do specialized stories.
Justin Webb was pretty awful too. They all seem to have an obsession with trying to find 'swing voters' in places like West Virginia and Kentucky, then projecting that as representative of America as a whole.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
That could have been written by my Daughter.
She’s close to giving up. The job is no longer enjoyable or profitable. It is stress after stress after stress. She worries about her staff, so much so she is not sleeping properly. At 26 she has more decency in her little finger than exists in the whole of this government of incompetent crooks. Fuck the lot of them.
I won't defend the competency of the government and that is a tearful story indeed to which we all, I should think, have great sympathy, but while aggravated by incompetency the biggest death knell has to be the persistance of this presence health crisis which has led to the de-prioritisation of anything not physical health related. Jobs reliant on things being normal could only ever have lasted so long. Longer than this with more competence, I am sure, but requiring normality, and that's just not coming. Nor, at the moment, do most people even want it, implicitly accepting the price.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Big question whether the move to Yes is structural, which the podcast didn't fully answer. My guess is that the Union isn't quite a lost cause yet but the circumstances that might rescue it are unlikely to transpire quickly enough. Even if Johnson goes I don't see the Conservatives shaking off their English nationalism and become a multi-cultural, open party of all nations but they are going to be in power for another four years as far as we know. Plenty of time for the consensus to independence to be embedded.
Nothing is structural though is it? Everything is a feeling. You have ebbing and flowing and momentum, but it's still all based on sentiment - on emotion. And those are transient by their nature.
I suppose. Scotland could go back to being a Labour fiefdom again. I don't see it. In the meantime, I suspect the independence consensus will firm up.
The Partis Quebecois polled over 38% in every Quebec election from 1976 to 1998 and 49% in 1981 and the Bloc Quebecois also got 49% in Quebec in the 1993 Canadian general election and yet Quebec is still part of Canada
I think what happened in Quebec is that the Quebecois discovered they could get autonomy on most of the stuff that mattered to them, while getting the benefits of the bigger state. Cake and eat it I guess. Actually something similar happened in Scotland in the 18th C after an initial dodgy patch following the Act of Union.
It could happen here too, but none of it's happening right now.
I suspect a similar devomax and a softer Brexit under PM Starmer or Sunak in 5 to 10 years or so would be the likely solution
As someone else pointed out, it is odd that you seem to expect a hypothetical future Labour government to correct the mistakes that you implicitly acknowledge your party is in the process of committing.
Labour, scientists and NHS it says. Yet people also don't want the consequences of national lockdown as they don't want the consequence of regional lockdowns.
As a country we are totally scewed no matter what.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
There's plenty of people who want to have a few months off work while still being paid.
I'm currently reading Scum of the Earth, by Arthur Koestler.
It's his autobiography of his time in France around the start of the World War 2. He's arrested, sent to a camp, released, rearrested, talks his way out, joins the Foreign Legion, and eventually deserts that to come to Britain...
It's a really fascinating look at the Fall of France (the book was written in 1941, so it's far from clear who will win the war), plus a look at the disintegration of a society (with some interesting parallels to what's going on now.)
It's also utterly compelling and very well written.
I highly recommend it.
I've been watching 'Allo 'Allo, so basically the same thing.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I was thinking as a general trend rather than literally each posher than the last, given the rise of the Etonians and prospect, however silly, of JRM. Goldsmith may well actually be posher, but we'd need someone who comes across as posher than JRM.
He's no longer in the game, but Rory Stewart would surely qualify.
The ultimate gentleman spy, putting the oblige back into noblesse oblige.
Whereas JRM is a nouveau who spent too long watching Lord Charles and Ray Alan.
Like you said earlier, what businesses want most is certainty, stability and a sense of fairness. And whether it's Covid or Brexit, this government is unwilling or unable to provide that. In fact, some of its instincts are to smash things up in the hope of creative destruction.
(Actually, how far down the Cabinet pecking order do you have to go before you get to an actual business(wo)man, as opposed to a banker or hedgefunder? Jeremy Hunt and Phil Spreadsheet both had experience in that area, but they've long gone.)
Gavin Williamson gets derided, unfairly in this respect at least, as Fireplace Salesman.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I was thinking as a general trend rather than literally each posher than the last, given the rise of the Etonians and prospect, however silly, of JRM. Goldsmith may well actually be posher, but we'd need someone who comes across as posher than JRM.
He's no longer in the game, but Rory Stewart would surely qualify.
The ultimate gentleman spy, putting the oblige back into noblesse oblige.
Whereas JRM is a nouveau who spent too long watching Lord Charles and Ray Alan.
Don't have nightmares, everyone.
Well he definitely gives the impression someone has their hand up his arse.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
Labour, scientists and NHS it says. Yet people also don't want the consequences of national lockdown as they don't want the consequence of regional lockdowns.
As a country we are totally scewed no matter what.
Evil Labour, scientists and NHS viciously bullying a terrified and helpless PM with only a measly (checks notes) 80 seat majority and statutory instruments galore.
Looks like Trump may have given up on WI, MI and MN. Presumably going all in on PA (and Florida)
IF Trumpsky's going "all in" in Keystone and Sunshine States, he's still being MASSIVELY outspent by Uncle Joe in these key battlegrounds.
What I find interesting are the media markets where The Donald is outspending Biden, most prominently cluster in Georgia plus Eastern North Carolina and Eastern Iowa.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
Blaine used to be an entirely adult theatre based economy in my day.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
I think a lot of people are also managing to rationalise is by the belief that "beating it" through a lockdown is the economically sane solution.
Labour, scientists and NHS it says. Yet people also don't want the consequences of national lockdown as they don't want the consequence of regional lockdowns.
As a country we are totally scewed no matter what.
Evil Labour, scientists and NHS viciously bullying a terrified and helpless PM with only a measly (checks notes) 80 seat majority and statutory instruments galore.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
I think a lot of people are also managing to rationalise is by the belief that "beating it" through a lockdown is the economically sane solution.
I think that’s right. Yet the best analogy I have heard is that of Richard Madeley, of all people, who likened the current strategy to hiding under the duvet sporadically in the hope it will go away.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Big question whether the move to Yes is structural, which the podcast didn't fully answer. My guess is that the Union isn't quite a lost cause yet but the circumstances that might rescue it are unlikely to transpire quickly enough. Even if Johnson goes I don't see the Conservatives shaking off their English nationalism and become a multi-cultural, open party of all nations but they are going to be in power for another four years as far as we know. Plenty of time for the consensus to independence to be embedded.
Nothing is structural though is it? Everything is a feeling. You have ebbing and flowing and momentum, but it's still all based on sentiment - on emotion. And those are transient by their nature.
I suppose. Scotland could go back to being a Labour fiefdom again. I don't see it. In the meantime, I suspect the independence consensus will firm up.
The Partis Quebecois polled over 38% in every Quebec election from 1976 to 1998 and 49% in 1981 and the Bloc Quebecois also got 49% in Quebec in the 1993 Canadian general election and yet Quebec is still part of Canada
I think what happened in Quebec is that the Quebecois discovered they could get autonomy on most of the stuff that mattered to them, while getting the benefits of the bigger state. Cake and eat it I guess. Actually something similar happened in Scotland in the 18th C after an initial dodgy patch following the Act of Union.
It could happen here too, but none of it's happening right now.
I suspect a similar devomax and a softer Brexit under PM Starmer or Sunak in 5 to 10 years or so would be the likely solution
What's the current plan for fishing? Will the North Sea fisheries be for the UK, or split between England and Scotland?
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
Blaine used to be an entirely adult theatre based economy in my day.
Today, Blaine would be happy to welcome some friendly, free-spending Canadian perverts. Their economy including non-XXX sector) has dried up and blown away.
BUT they are in MUCH better shape than poor schmucks at Point Roberts, where the whole hamlet is in effective lockdown from rest of the world, because only way to get to rest of WA & US via land is virtually 100% closed down.
If true, we are much closer to herd immunity than any official view has confirmed.
Something I have long suspected
But if lots of people caught it then, there wouldn't be so many people to catch it now, yet it seems to be spreading.
Lots of people did catch it then. Millions did.
That still leaves lots of people who haven't caught it yet. Well over 60 million.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
How dare, really how fucking dare, the government impose Tier 2 and Tier 3 on regions and then provide fuck all support for the businesses unable to trade and the people who will lose their jobs?
How dare they claim there is no money when they and their friends and consultants are looting the state of billions?
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
Blaine used to be an entirely adult theatre based economy in my day.
Today, Blaine would be happy to welcome some friendly, free-spending Canadian perverts. Their economy including non-XXX sector) has dried up and blown away.
BUT they are in MUCH better shape than poor schmucks at Point Roberts, where the whole hamlet is in effective lockdown from rest of the world, because only way to get to rest of WA & US via land is virtually 100% closed down.
Point Roberts is a bonkers place, beloved of geography fans. It’s essentially an exclave of the United States in Canada caused by a bureaucratic cock-up when the border was being agreed, as I understand it. There’s another similar example in the Lake of the Woods, Minnesota.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
I think a lot of people are also managing to rationalise is by the belief that "beating it" through a lockdown is the economically sane solution.
If you're not worried about liberty and are just thinking in cold economics then it can be.
Keeping limited elements like Nightclubs and Foreign Travel closed while everything else is open is probably economically ideal now.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
They also don’t appreciate the on costs. I am sure your daughter will have been running with reduced range and stock but fresh food and real ale go off quickly. There are still plenty of outgoings outside of wages, and current subsidies only part pay furlough wages and employers is expected to pay NI and pensions contributions on wages.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
They also don’t appreciate the on costs. I am sure your daughter will have been running with reduced range and stock but fresh food and real ale go off quickly. There are still plenty of outgoings outside of wages, and current subsidies only part pay furlough wages and employers is expected to pay NI and pensions contributions on wages.
Are they expected to pay NI and Pensions on the 66% scheme? Which should be an 80% scheme.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
Closing a business then getting it restarted should be considered more comparable to stopping someone's heart, putting it on bypass and then trying to get it restarted.
With the right support its possible but even then it may fail. Without the right support you're dead.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
A lot of the explanations for that I've seen have been somewhat flawed, because herd immunity isn't something which just happens at a certain level, it's more a description of one end of a sliding scale effect, where the other is no immunity.
If we were to seriously go for herd immunity we'd want to keep infection levels at around (or even a bit above) the level of the March peak, whilst keeping the elderly and vulnerable out of harms way as much as possible. No other option is fast enough. Initially we wouldn't have to relax restrictions much to get there - it's where we are at the moment - schools and universities have pushed the effective R from 1 to about 1.5
As immunity developed, we'd actually have to start significantly relaxing restrictions to keep the R above 1. This is obvious by comparing how slowly the second wave is going in London compared to parts of the North - London is only though to have had been 5-15% of the population infected, but it's got a noticably slower growing curve now.
And for all the naysayers, it's becoming increasingly apparent that there is no alternative. A magic vaccination isn't going to happen before the population gives up and turns to civil disobedience en-mass, as many people see their lives being ruined by a government which has had the bizarre notion that it can abolish death.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
A lot of the explanations for that I've seen have been somewhat flawed, because herd immunity isn't something which just happens at a certain level, it's more a description of one end of a sliding scale effect, where the other is no immunity.
If we were to seriously go for herd immunity we'd want to keep infection levels at around (or even a bit above) the level of the March peak, whilst keeping the elderly and vulnerable out of harms way as much as possible. No other option is fast enough. Initially we wouldn't have to relax restrictions much to get there - it's where we are at the moment - schools and universities have pushed the effective R from 1 to about 1.5
As immunity developed, we'd actually have to start significantly relaxing restrictions to keep the R above 1. This is obvious by comparing how slowly the second wave is going in London compared to parts of the North - London is only though to have had been 5-15% of the population infected, but it's got a noticably slower growing curve now.
And for all the naysayers, it's becoming increasingly apparent that there is no alternative. A magic vaccination isn't going to happen before the population gives up and turns to civil disobedience en-mass, as many people see their lives being ruined by a government which has had the bizarre notion that it can abolish death.
Couple of logic errors there.
Firstly once you get to a steady state of where you're happy at you'd need to keep R at 1 not above 1, if its above 1 you've got exponential growth again.
Secondly the North v London isn't necessarily because of pre-existing immunity, it can also be because London is much better suited for working from home than the North is.
Thirdly if you had infections at March peak levels you'd have hospitals solely dealing with Covid - cancer etc would all get cancelled as they were in March.
Fourthly even at March levels you'd need to maintain that for not just the rest of this year, but all of next year and into 2022 before we reached herd immunity levels.
Finally we have multiple vaccines in Phase III trials with the Oxford vaccine final trials due to end any day now. That's not "magic".
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
The public have no idea what is involved in running a business. Nor how much effort and money businesses have put in to try and survive. Nor how badly these measures will affect them.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
Depends enormously on the nature of the business. My employers shut up shop for a few weeks in the first lockdown - we literally just locked our engineering works up and walked away. Took a couple of us half a day to secure everything, and about the same to open up again when we got back.
There were a few fixed costs we couldn't get out of, but not much in the context of our normal turnover.
Obviously it's a totally different ballgame if you deal in perishable goods, or run a steelworks, both cases where forced shutdowns are very bad news.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
A lot of the explanations for that I've seen have been somewhat flawed, because herd immunity isn't something which just happens at a certain level, it's more a description of one end of a sliding scale effect, where the other is no immunity.
If we were to seriously go for herd immunity we'd want to keep infection levels at around (or even a bit above) the level of the March peak, whilst keeping the elderly and vulnerable out of harms way as much as possible. No other option is fast enough. Initially we wouldn't have to relax restrictions much to get there - it's where we are at the moment - schools and universities have pushed the effective R from 1 to about 1.5
As immunity developed, we'd actually have to start significantly relaxing restrictions to keep the R above 1. This is obvious by comparing how slowly the second wave is going in London compared to parts of the North - London is only though to have had been 5-15% of the population infected, but it's got a noticably slower growing curve now.
And for all the naysayers, it's becoming increasingly apparent that there is no alternative. A magic vaccination isn't going to happen before the population gives up and turns to civil disobedience en-mass, as many people see their lives being ruined by a government which has had the bizarre notion that it can abolish death.
Couple of logic errors there.
Firstly once you get to a steady state of where you're happy at you'd need to keep R at 1 not above 1, if its above 1 you've got exponential growth again.
Secondly the North v London isn't necessarily because of pre-existing immunity, it can also be because London is much better suited for working from home than the North is.
Thirdly if you had infections at March peak levels you'd have hospitals solely dealing with Covid - cancer etc would all get cancelled as they were in March.
Fourthly even at March levels you'd need to maintain that for not just the rest of this year, but all of next year and into 2022 before we reached herd immunity levels.
Finally we have multiple vaccines in Phase III trials with the Oxford vaccine final trials due to end any day now. That's not "magic".
Your correct that I've expressed myself badly. My point should have been expressed that to hold effective R at 1 once we'd got to the desired case levels we'd have to keep relaxing restrictions.
We never actually used all our hospital capacity in March - we emptied all the hospitals in readiness for lots of cases which in many areas never came. We also built all the nightingale capacity which was unused. We should be able to easily manage sustained levels similar to March without having to abandon all other treatment.
I'm well aware that getting to herd immunity will probably take around a year. This is why it's imperative we get on with it ASAP - had the morons in government not been frightened off in March by the idiot media we would be over halfway there now.
There are two big issues with the vaccines. One is that they are perpetual jam tomorrow - but so far it's a constant six months away. We can't afford to wait. If we'd gone for herd immunity in the first place, we'd be back to normal faster than any vaccine option is being suggested to offer. The other is that its a "all eggs in one basket" strategy. Although there are a lot of different vaccines in development, they mostly intend to work in similar ways - so if one doesn't work, probably the rest won't either. If we get the Oxford results back in a couple of months and find it doesn't work, then herd immunity is probably the only game in town again - and we'll have spent almost a year wrecking our economy pointlessly first.
This government is somehow doing a worse job each day. Tier 2 and you get no Government support, completely unacceptable
It’s a gigantic “Fuck you” by the government to all the affected businesses and their employees by the government.
Sunak is behind it. And why he should not replace Johnson. He will be the man whose actions - whose failure to support - will be the reason for bankrupt businesses and unemployed people. Even Labour should be able to make that case.
Worse than useless. There will be changes on Saturday but no details as to which areas are covered. Is Barrow-in Furness just the LA14 postcode? Or wider? And how the absolute fuck is any business supposed to know how to plan without such information?
And, of course, this uncertainty means that people will be even less likely to go out, thus screwing over even those businesses which can open.
There is no limit to the contempt I feel for the cretins in charge.
Similar comments in email from local pub. ... While national and local restrictions have become ingrained in all of our lives, the most recent succession of restrictions has had a significant and cumulative, negative effect on our business.
The curfew, as just one example, implemented with almost no notice, wiped out 30% of our (new) normal sales for the week. Our earlier reservation slots usually fill at shorter notice, but with the curfew being introduced, it was necessary for our later tables to arrive earlier, leaving fewer opportunities for two sittings.
And now we have ‘Tiers’. The leaks to the press that last week led to days of reports that most of the hospitality sector in the north would soon be closed, led to cancellations, but also, a lack of new reservations. We lost a day of trading through being unsure whether to place beer orders, etc. Eventually we settled in as part of the vast Tier 2 community but with Tier 3 ever on the periphery…
Sure, we are easily as much a restaurant as a pub, so could potentially continue to trade, but with the entire loss of our drinking and walk-in trade. That is on top of losing 40% of our capacity. On top of having only single household tables sat. On top of only being able to operate until 10pm. On top of the perhaps almost subconscious ‘spooking’ of potential guests that occurs each time a new announcement is made. On top of the fact we have spent far more of this year under restriction than not...
Along with everything else, one of the underacknowledged features of this crisis is the large amounts of money spent by businesses up and down the country to meet rules laid down by the Government to make themselves "Covid safe". For what? To discover that on a sixpence the Government can turn and damn them all, without nuance for the huge range of pubs and restaurants (and other businesses) - be they in/outside city/town environments , large, small, with gardens/without, regardless of attempts to comply with rules and enforcement on customers, as dangerous and to be restricted or shut.
That does suck, although what surprises me is the extent to which the public support continues to support pulling the rug out from businesses in that way, with eagerness for continued and sudden harsh measures (weaksauce commitment to support notwithstanding), which is why the government dares do it of course.
Cause people are scared of catching the Crud or (even worse) transmitting it to family and friends, esp. geezers & other vulnerables. AND because there is an strong feeling ingrained in many that strong medicine works best - and the worse the disease, the stronger the medicine.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
Blaine used to be an entirely adult theatre based economy in my day.
Today, Blaine would be happy to welcome some friendly, free-spending Canadian perverts. Their economy including non-XXX sector) has dried up and blown away.
BUT they are in MUCH better shape than poor schmucks at Point Roberts, where the whole hamlet is in effective lockdown from rest of the world, because only way to get to rest of WA & US via land is virtually 100% closed down.
Point Roberts is a bonkers place, beloved of geography fans. It’s essentially an exclave of the United States in Canada caused by a bureaucratic cock-up when the border was being agreed, as I understand it. There’s another similar example in the Lake of the Woods, Minnesota.
Your explanation is the traditional British Foreign Office version - that is, inventive fiction.
After much negotiation, President Polk reneged on his campaign promise ("Fifty-Four Forty or Fight!") and agreed to British proposal to partition Oregon Country by extending existing 49th parallel boundary east of Rocky Mountains westward to the Straits of Georgia; from there the border veered south and then west so that all of Vancouver Island was in British hands, thus allowing Hudson Bay Co to establish a new base of operations at Victoria.
It is true that when the agreement was reached, apparently no one in either London or Washington was aware that a small portion of land extended south of 49th parallel, with Straits of Georgia to west and Boundary Bay to east.
So good-hearted John Bull generouly offered to 'rectify" this "error" by taking the 'inconvenience" of Point Roberts off Uncle Sam's hands.
Response was swift: thanks, but no thanks. A deals a deal, and London should have checked the fine print BEFORE signing the treaty.
Note that in contrast to the phony issue of Point Roberts, there was a legitimate dispute (also caused by ill-understood geography) over whether the San Juan Islands belonged under treaty terms to UK or US. This led to the Pig War which nearly resulted in a real war between Britain and America. Which was averted when both sides agreed to turn the question over to arbitration by the King of Prussia, who was also Emperor of Germany by the time he handed down his decision
To add (supposed) insult to (alleged) injury, the disputed territory was awarded to the United States. And is today San Juan County, Washington.
In case of Point Roberts AND San Juan Island, British interest was in keeping American territory, jurisdiction, military and naval power as far away as possible from Victoria and environs, in particular the new naval base quickly established at Esquimaux, BC.
So was not a generic "bureacratic cockup" but instead an FO perfidious Albion plot! As per usual!!
The problem with the herd immunity strategy is that people in places with high levels of CV19 lock themselves down, irrespective of what the government says.
Let me give you an example. This summer, the family and I had two breaks: one was in Phoenix (where I have work) and the other was in Laguna Niguel, in Orange County, California.
In theory, Arizona at the time had essentially no restrictions, while California had lots.
In reality, SoCal was much more like normal life than Arizona was.
So, in Arizona, it may not have been the law, but restaurants had largely closed down because no-one wanted to eat indoors and it was 110 degrees outside. Shopping malls were deserted. Everyone who could was working from home. Our hotel, the Phoenician, didn't serve room service because of CV19, and breakfast could only be achieved by going to the cafe in the hotel and ordering one of about three bag options.
Why were there so many precautions? Because back in August, Arizona was going through the peak of its second wave, and when cases start spiking businesses and people lock themselves down.
By contrast, at the hotel in Laguna Niguel, there was room service, there were open outdoor restarants, there was pool service... Now, California has easier weather to do this kind of thing, but if you'd just looked at state regulations you'd have assumed California would be shut and Arizona open.
In a herd immunity strategy you have a series of waves as infections come, people lock themselves down, and then a slow unfreezing. I think that's why the economic growth numbers for Georgia, Arizona and Florida (non-lockdown states) are only a smidgen better than Colorado, California and New York. And this would go on for a long time, because the population locks itself down pretty rapidly - we're talking at least a couple of years.
My personal preference is for a series of restrictions on the highest CV19 spreading activities, and a requirement for masks on public transport, and to otherwise allow the economy to open up. But I don't think this is a panacea, because it probably still results in R above 1, and it will result in several waves of people getting sick, and locking themselves down.
Fair play to the lady, she's trying to get a promise out of him and she knows how he responds to praise. Didn't result in anything much and he doesn't keep his promises anyhow but it was worth a shot, nothing to lose.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
The three had remarkably similar backgrounds. Brown, May and (effectively) Thatcher were all sons or daughters of the manse; all were more-or-less grammar school educated even if not under that name. Mrs Thatcher later became, by choice and bank account, posher than the other two although we should also remember she was from a previous, more formal, generation.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
The three had remarkably similar backgrounds. Brown, May and (effectively) Thatcher were all sons or daughters of the manse; all were more-or-less grammar school educated even if not under that name. Mrs Thatcher later became, by choice and bank account, posher than the other two although we should also remember she was from a previous, more formal, generation.
I reckon May is making more money than many folk realise (not to mention Phil's v healthy bank balance)...she's a rich woman there is no doubt about it.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
The three had remarkably similar backgrounds. Brown, May and (effectively) Thatcher were all sons or daughters of the manse; all were more-or-less grammar school educated even if not under that name. Mrs Thatcher later became, by choice and bank account, posher than the other two although we should also remember she was from a previous, more formal, generation.
I reckon May is making more money than many folk realise (not to mention Phil's v healthy bank balance)...she's a rich woman there is no doubt about it.
What May is earning on top of her MP salary is a matter of public record - she has to declare it as an MP. The fact that this has not been reported suggest that you are wrong.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
The three had remarkably similar backgrounds. Brown, May and (effectively) Thatcher were all sons or daughters of the manse; all were more-or-less grammar school educated even if not under that name. Mrs Thatcher later became, by choice and bank account, posher than the other two although we should also remember she was from a previous, more formal, generation.
I reckon May is making more money than many folk realise (not to mention Phil's v healthy bank balance)...she's a rich woman there is no doubt about it.
The ex-PM that probably did best for himself was John Major, who spent about five years as a kind of Ambassador for Carlyle Group.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
The three had remarkably similar backgrounds. Brown, May and (effectively) Thatcher were all sons or daughters of the manse; all were more-or-less grammar school educated even if not under that name. Mrs Thatcher later became, by choice and bank account, posher than the other two although we should also remember she was from a previous, more formal, generation.
I reckon May is making more money than many folk realise (not to mention Phil's v healthy bank balance)...she's a rich woman there is no doubt about it.
The ex-PM that probably did best for himself was John Major, who spent about five years as a kind of Ambassador for Carlyle Group.
Would have thought David Lloyd George was undisputed winner, by a pretty long shot esp. IF you index for circa 1920 purchasing power.
So who do you have down as closet PB Trumpers, Alistair? I have Malcolm G and Mr Meekes as certainties. Nick Palmer is a possible but he hides it well. OGH must be under suspicion too, if only because of the hair style.
Any others you can think of?
There are those who would view a surprise Trump re-election victory as a good opportunity to have a jolly good laugh and gloat at "the Lefties" who have railed against Trump and all his works since before his election.
Most aren't Trump supporters but just enjoy watching the "woke" getting their come-uppance - that's all.
Like how we'll laugh when someone explodes a nuclear bomb in Central London because it will definitely upset the metropolitan elite.
Not exactly shocking news...she is a registered democrat and has a long history of backing progressive candidates for office....would be bigger news is she wasn't voting for Biden.
Briefly addressing her political differences with her dad, Caroline told Politico in 2016: "I love Hillary, I think she's by far the most qualified candidate that we've had in a long while. My dad knows. I was for Barack in 2012. He knows and is fully comfortable with it and thinks I have a right to my opinion."
Her dad is worth $45 million, so she has to tread carefully to phrase it in such a way she does not annoy him too much to stay in the will, hence she said vote for Biden, she did not trash Trump in the same sentence
You mean other than describing him as "cruel", "selfish" and "a nightmare we need to escape from"?
Well that is her out the will then, mind you she is a Harvard educated film producer so I expect will survive, good news for her brother though who worked as a special assistant for Trump
Your concern about the inheritance is touching but kinda missing the point here?
This is a really good inside track of what's going on in the G.O.P. It's a conversation from one of the Republican senators which has appeared in today's New York Times. You can read the article here:
I think we need to bet accordingly. This looks to me like landslide territory with the likely capture by the Dems of the Senate, to control Capitol Hill. That will only leave the Supreme Court as the block and we all know by now how that might be resolved.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
A lot of the explanations for that I've seen have been somewhat flawed, because herd immunity isn't something which just happens at a certain level, it's more a description of one end of a sliding scale effect, where the other is no immunity.
If we were to seriously go for herd immunity we'd want to keep infection levels at around (or even a bit above) the level of the March peak, whilst keeping the elderly and vulnerable out of harms way as much as possible. No other option is fast enough. Initially we wouldn't have to relax restrictions much to get there - it's where we are at the moment - schools and universities have pushed the effective R from 1 to about 1.5
As immunity developed, we'd actually have to start significantly relaxing restrictions to keep the R above 1. This is obvious by comparing how slowly the second wave is going in London compared to parts of the North - London is only though to have had been 5-15% of the population infected, but it's got a noticably slower growing curve now.
And for all the naysayers, it's becoming increasingly apparent that there is no alternative. A magic vaccination isn't going to happen before the population gives up and turns to civil disobedience en-mass, as many people see their lives being ruined by a government which has had the bizarre notion that it can abolish death.
Couple of logic errors there.
Firstly once you get to a steady state of where you're happy at you'd need to keep R at 1 not above 1, if its above 1 you've got exponential growth again.
Secondly the North v London isn't necessarily because of pre-existing immunity, it can also be because London is much better suited for working from home than the North is.
Thirdly if you had infections at March peak levels you'd have hospitals solely dealing with Covid - cancer etc would all get cancelled as they were in March.
Fourthly even at March levels you'd need to maintain that for not just the rest of this year, but all of next year and into 2022 before we reached herd immunity levels.
Finally we have multiple vaccines in Phase III trials with the Oxford vaccine final trials due to end any day now. That's not "magic".
Your correct that I've expressed myself badly. My point should have been expressed that to hold effective R at 1 once we'd got to the desired case levels we'd have to keep relaxing restrictions.
We never actually used all our hospital capacity in March - we emptied all the hospitals in readiness for lots of cases which in many areas never came. We also built all the nightingale capacity which was unused. We should be able to easily manage sustained levels similar to March without having to abandon all other treatment.
I'm well aware that getting to herd immunity will probably take around a year. This is why it's imperative we get on with it ASAP - had the morons in government not been frightened off in March by the idiot media we would be over halfway there now.
There are two big issues with the vaccines. One is that they are perpetual jam tomorrow - but so far it's a constant six months away. We can't afford to wait. If we'd gone for herd immunity in the first place, we'd be back to normal faster than any vaccine option is being suggested to offer. The other is that its a "all eggs in one basket" strategy. Although there are a lot of different vaccines in development, they mostly intend to work in similar ways - so if one doesn't work, probably the rest won't either. If we get the Oxford results back in a couple of months and find it doesn't work, then herd immunity is probably the only game in town again - and we'll have spent almost a year wrecking our economy pointlessly first.
If the vaccines take too long to arrive, we could find that herd immunity is a 'fait accomplit', by sometime in 2021 or 2022.
It would be ironic if a vaccine finally passes all the effectiveness and safety checks, and the manufacturing and distribution operations are all sorted as well, but by then the epidemic is slowing down and we are going back to normal anyway.
Very interesting podcast. Well worth a listen. Takeaway is that the new Yes supporters are mostly women of all ages who took a more pragmatic risk approach back in 2014. The issue that resonated with me was a huge lack of trust amongst Scots for Westminster and the Johnson government.
It does look like the end of the United Kingdom to me. I don't see the Conservatives changing from being the party of English nationalists and they have a partisan interest in denying any popular will in Scotland for independence, to show up Labour as the party in England that would break up the UK. Effectively othering the SNP and the nation of Scotland. That might stave off independence for a while but guarantees it eventually.
Also the next couple of years will be grim.
On the other hand, it does rather mean that the grievances of those reluctant yes supporters are being accumulated with and personified by the Johnson Government, like a bad bank. When Johnson himself goes, as he must at some point, a lot of the venom goes with him.
Depends who replaces him. Rishi Sunak would probably be better. Jacob Rees-Mogg I suspect might not be.
Hahaha - I don't advocate the coronation of the Moggster, but it would *almost* be worth it for the reactions. I wonder if he would recline whilst listening to Starmer's questions during PMQs.
Give we appear to be trending posher and posher in our PMs if JRM is on the table, who on earth would follow him, the Monopoly Man?
Zac Goldsmith?
Although not sure the meme actually works, wouldnt the poshness order recently be Cameron, Johnson, Blair, May, Thatcher, Brown, Major - so pretty random?
I'd say that Brown was posher than Thatcher and arguably May - his father was a Church of Scotland Minister in the 1950s which would have made him one of the leading men in the area.
The three had remarkably similar backgrounds. Brown, May and (effectively) Thatcher were all sons or daughters of the manse; all were more-or-less grammar school educated even if not under that name. Mrs Thatcher later became, by choice and bank account, posher than the other two although we should also remember she was from a previous, more formal, generation.
I reckon May is making more money than many folk realise (not to mention Phil's v healthy bank balance)...she's a rich woman there is no doubt about it.
The ex-PM that probably did best for himself was John Major, who spent about five years as a kind of Ambassador for Carlyle Group.
Would have thought David Lloyd George was undisputed winner, by a pretty long shot esp. IF you index for circa 1920 purchasing power.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
A lot of the explanations for that I've seen have been somewhat flawed, because herd immunity isn't something which just happens at a certain level, it's more a description of one end of a sliding scale effect, where the other is no immunity.
If we were to seriously go for herd immunity we'd want to keep infection levels at around (or even a bit above) the level of the March peak, whilst keeping the elderly and vulnerable out of harms way as much as possible. No other option is fast enough. Initially we wouldn't have to relax restrictions much to get there - it's where we are at the moment - schools and universities have pushed the effective R from 1 to about 1.5
As immunity developed, we'd actually have to start significantly relaxing restrictions to keep the R above 1. This is obvious by comparing how slowly the second wave is going in London compared to parts of the North - London is only though to have had been 5-15% of the population infected, but it's got a noticably slower growing curve now.
And for all the naysayers, it's becoming increasingly apparent that there is no alternative. A magic vaccination isn't going to happen before the population gives up and turns to civil disobedience en-mass, as many people see their lives being ruined by a government which has had the bizarre notion that it can abolish death.
Couple of logic errors there.
Firstly once you get to a steady state of where you're happy at you'd need to keep R at 1 not above 1, if its above 1 you've got exponential growth again.
Secondly the North v London isn't necessarily because of pre-existing immunity, it can also be because London is much better suited for working from home than the North is.
Thirdly if you had infections at March peak levels you'd have hospitals solely dealing with Covid - cancer etc would all get cancelled as they were in March.
Fourthly even at March levels you'd need to maintain that for not just the rest of this year, but all of next year and into 2022 before we reached herd immunity levels.
Finally we have multiple vaccines in Phase III trials with the Oxford vaccine final trials due to end any day now. That's not "magic".
Your correct that I've expressed myself badly. My point should have been expressed that to hold effective R at 1 once we'd got to the desired case levels we'd have to keep relaxing restrictions.
We never actually used all our hospital capacity in March - we emptied all the hospitals in readiness for lots of cases which in many areas never came. We also built all the nightingale capacity which was unused. We should be able to easily manage sustained levels similar to March without having to abandon all other treatment.
I'm well aware that getting to herd immunity will probably take around a year. This is why it's imperative we get on with it ASAP - had the morons in government not been frightened off in March by the idiot media we would be over halfway there now.
There are two big issues with the vaccines. One is that they are perpetual jam tomorrow - but so far it's a constant six months away. We can't afford to wait. If we'd gone for herd immunity in the first place, we'd be back to normal faster than any vaccine option is being suggested to offer. The other is that its a "all eggs in one basket" strategy. Although there are a lot of different vaccines in development, they mostly intend to work in similar ways - so if one doesn't work, probably the rest won't either. If we get the Oxford results back in a couple of months and find it doesn't work, then herd immunity is probably the only game in town again - and we'll have spent almost a year wrecking our economy pointlessly first.
If the vaccines take too long to arrive, we could find that herd immunity is a 'fait accomplit', by sometime in 2021 or 2022.
It would be ironic if a vaccine finally passes all the effectiveness and safety checks, and the manufacturing and distribution operations are all sorted as well, but by then the epidemic is slowing down and we are going back to normal anyway.
If there is herd immunity without vaccine sometime in 2021, then it is going to be a nightmare winter for people's health and for businesses, with or without lockdown.
This is a really good inside track of what's going on in the G.O.P. It's a conversation from one of the Republican senators which has appeared in today's New York Times. You can read the article here:
I think we need to bet accordingly. This looks to me like landslide territory with the likely capture by the Dems of the Senate, to control Capitol Hill. That will only leave the Supreme Court as the block and we all know by now how that might be resolved.
Ben Sasse is a well known critic of Trump and the two have been at loggerheads for years. If you are basing your betting on what Sasse says about Trump, it’s not a great strategy
Comments
And without that making decisions becomes harder.
Not that politicians tend to be good on the details to begin with.
It's his autobiography of his time in France around the start of the World War 2. He's arrested, sent to a camp, released, rearrested, talks his way out, joins the Foreign Legion, and eventually deserts that to come to Britain...
It's a really fascinating look at the Fall of France (the book was written in 1941, so it's far from clear who will win the war), plus a look at the disintegration of a society (with some interesting parallels to what's going on now.)
It's also utterly compelling and very well written.
I highly recommend it.
(Actually, how far down the Cabinet pecking order do you have to go before you get to an actual business(wo)man, as opposed to a banker or hedgefunder? Jeremy Hunt and Phil Spreadsheet both had experience in that area, but they've long gone.)
I look forward to Boris's response to the EU tomorrow.
I am sure that the govt will continue making a complete balls of Covid
Goodnight all
The government needs to realise the huge damage it is doing and the amount of anger its “fuck you” approach is generating. It will come back to bite them.
Clearly lots of small businesses have been horribly (and too-often fatally) whipsawed during the pandemic. With the hospitality industry facing way above-average pressure and risk.
All governments everywhere are reeling from COVID-19, and nearly all have fallen short in often quite serious ways. BUT methinks that both Johnson and Trump stand out as leaders of key national governments whose pandemic performance has been seriously spotty at best, and criminally shambolic at worst.
IF that's true, then why? Partly, and evidently, answer is incapacity and incompetence at very top, and within No. 10 / White House sanctum scanctorum.
BUT is that where the rot ends? Certainly would seem to require PLENTY of screwing up lower down, that can NOT be blamed entirely or even mostly on BoJo and Trumpsky.
Not a great advert for business acumen and probity.
Which wouldn't be great.
But would kick herd immunity and zero Covid into touch. Thus annoying both extremes.
Maybe CV 19 is a radical centrist?
As a country we are totally scewed no matter what.
Looks like Trump may have given up on WI, MI and MN. Presumably going all in on PA (and Florida)
The ultimate gentleman spy, putting the oblige back into noblesse oblige.
Whereas JRM is a nouveau who spent too long watching Lord Charles and Ray Alan.
Don't have nightmares, everyone.
Read a story a while back about small towns along the US-Canada border, most of which depending to large extent on trans-border tourism. Lady who owns a gift shop in a little town in Montana just south of the line was interviewed.
She said that Canada's closure of the border was killing her business - and she supported it. Because the Canadians were taking strong action to protect their people. Who as she well knew were folks pretty much just like her and her neighbors.
If AZ flips (and ME2 does not), then it's 269-all.
What I find interesting are the media markets where The Donald is outspending Biden, most prominently cluster in Georgia plus Eastern North Carolina and Eastern Iowa.
I knew 'Vaughany' was dim, but...
BUT they are in MUCH better shape than poor schmucks at Point Roberts, where the whole hamlet is in effective lockdown from rest of the world, because only way to get to rest of WA & US via land is virtually 100% closed down.
That still leaves lots of people who haven't caught it yet. Well over 60 million.
This is the problem that someone here has explained well before about why the 'herd immunity' concept is challenging . . . at a sustainable rate it would take years not weeks or months to achieve it.
They think closing a business for a few weeks is like someone locking up the house while you go on holiday.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1316881254634131456?s=20
Keeping limited elements like Nightclubs and Foreign Travel closed while everything else is open is probably economically ideal now.
48 weeks would be a good start.
That's ridiculous if so.
With the right support its possible but even then it may fail. Without the right support you're dead.
If we were to seriously go for herd immunity we'd want to keep infection levels at around (or even a bit above) the level of the March peak, whilst keeping the elderly and vulnerable out of harms way as much as possible. No other option is fast enough. Initially we wouldn't have to relax restrictions much to get there - it's where we are at the moment - schools and universities have pushed the effective R from 1 to about 1.5
As immunity developed, we'd actually have to start significantly relaxing restrictions to keep the R above 1. This is obvious by comparing how slowly the second wave is going in London compared to parts of the North - London is only though to have had been 5-15% of the population infected, but it's got a noticably slower growing curve now.
And for all the naysayers, it's becoming increasingly apparent that there is no alternative. A magic vaccination isn't going to happen before the population gives up and turns to civil disobedience en-mass, as many people see their lives being ruined by a government which has had the bizarre notion that it can abolish death.
Firstly once you get to a steady state of where you're happy at you'd need to keep R at 1 not above 1, if its above 1 you've got exponential growth again.
Secondly the North v London isn't necessarily because of pre-existing immunity, it can also be because London is much better suited for working from home than the North is.
Thirdly if you had infections at March peak levels you'd have hospitals solely dealing with Covid - cancer etc would all get cancelled as they were in March.
Fourthly even at March levels you'd need to maintain that for not just the rest of this year, but all of next year and into 2022 before we reached herd immunity levels.
Finally we have multiple vaccines in Phase III trials with the Oxford vaccine final trials due to end any day now. That's not "magic".
There were a few fixed costs we couldn't get out of, but not much in the context of our normal turnover.
Obviously it's a totally different ballgame if you deal in perishable goods, or run a steelworks, both cases where forced shutdowns are very bad news.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1316895833175064577?s=20
We never actually used all our hospital capacity in March - we emptied all the hospitals in readiness for lots of cases which in many areas never came. We also built all the nightingale capacity which was unused. We should be able to easily manage sustained levels similar to March without having to abandon all other treatment.
I'm well aware that getting to herd immunity will probably take around a year. This is why it's imperative we get on with it ASAP - had the morons in government not been frightened off in March by the idiot media we would be over halfway there now.
There are two big issues with the vaccines. One is that they are perpetual jam tomorrow - but so far it's a constant six months away. We can't afford to wait. If we'd gone for herd immunity in the first place, we'd be back to normal faster than any vaccine option is being suggested to offer.
The other is that its a "all eggs in one basket" strategy. Although there are a lot of different vaccines in development, they mostly intend to work in similar ways - so if one doesn't work, probably the rest won't either. If we get the Oxford results back in a couple of months and find it doesn't work, then herd immunity is probably the only game in town again - and we'll have spent almost a year wrecking our economy pointlessly first.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-14/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-trial-remains-on-track-ceo-says
After much negotiation, President Polk reneged on his campaign promise ("Fifty-Four Forty or Fight!") and agreed to British proposal to partition Oregon Country by extending existing 49th parallel boundary east of Rocky Mountains westward to the Straits of Georgia; from there the border veered south and then west so that all of Vancouver Island was in British hands, thus allowing Hudson Bay Co to establish a new base of operations at Victoria.
It is true that when the agreement was reached, apparently no one in either London or Washington was aware that a small portion of land extended south of 49th parallel, with Straits of Georgia to west and Boundary Bay to east.
So good-hearted John Bull generouly offered to 'rectify" this "error" by taking the 'inconvenience" of Point Roberts off Uncle Sam's hands.
Response was swift: thanks, but no thanks. A deals a deal, and London should have checked the fine print BEFORE signing the treaty.
Note that in contrast to the phony issue of Point Roberts, there was a legitimate dispute (also caused by ill-understood geography) over whether the San Juan Islands belonged under treaty terms to UK or US. This led to the Pig War which nearly resulted in a real war between Britain and America. Which was averted when both sides agreed to turn the question over to arbitration by the King of Prussia, who was also Emperor of Germany by the time he handed down his decision
To add (supposed) insult to (alleged) injury, the disputed territory was awarded to the United States. And is today San Juan County, Washington.
In case of Point Roberts AND San Juan Island, British interest was in keeping American territory, jurisdiction, military and naval power as far away as possible from Victoria and environs, in particular the new naval base quickly established at Esquimaux, BC.
So was not a generic "bureacratic cockup" but instead an FO perfidious Albion plot! As per usual!!
Must make you proud to be a Republican.
Note this last is SARCASM a la that great Civil Rights crusader, Senator Lindsay Graham.
The problem with the herd immunity strategy is that people in places with high levels of CV19 lock themselves down, irrespective of what the government says.
Let me give you an example. This summer, the family and I had two breaks: one was in Phoenix (where I have work) and the other was in Laguna Niguel, in Orange County, California.
In theory, Arizona at the time had essentially no restrictions, while California had lots.
In reality, SoCal was much more like normal life than Arizona was.
So, in Arizona, it may not have been the law, but restaurants had largely closed down because no-one wanted to eat indoors and it was 110 degrees outside. Shopping malls were deserted. Everyone who could was working from home. Our hotel, the Phoenician, didn't serve room service because of CV19, and breakfast could only be achieved by going to the cafe in the hotel and ordering one of about three bag options.
Why were there so many precautions? Because back in August, Arizona was going through the peak of its second wave, and when cases start spiking businesses and people lock themselves down.
By contrast, at the hotel in Laguna Niguel, there was room service, there were open outdoor restarants, there was pool service... Now, California has easier weather to do this kind of thing, but if you'd just looked at state regulations you'd have assumed California would be shut and Arizona open.
In a herd immunity strategy you have a series of waves as infections come, people lock themselves down, and then a slow unfreezing. I think that's why the economic growth numbers for Georgia, Arizona and Florida (non-lockdown states) are only a smidgen better than Colorado, California and New York. And this would go on for a long time, because the population locks itself down pretty rapidly - we're talking at least a couple of years.
My personal preference is for a series of restrictions on the highest CV19 spreading activities, and a requirement for masks on public transport, and to otherwise allow the economy to open up. But I don't think this is a panacea, because it probably still results in R above 1, and it will result in several waves of people getting sick, and locking themselves down.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/15/health/remdesivir-covid-who-trial-mortality/index.html
https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-nw-nyt-trump-sasse-gop-senate-20201016-4pstdkau2rgyhpdc7izzk6cyqm-story.html
I think we need to bet accordingly. This looks to me like landslide territory with the likely capture by the Dems of the Senate, to control Capitol Hill. That will only leave the Supreme Court as the block and we all know by now how that might be resolved.
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1316900308149325824
She did.
https://twitter.com/MaryLTrump/status/1316904814467600386
It would be ironic if a vaccine finally passes all the effectiveness and safety checks, and the manufacturing and distribution operations are all sorted as well, but by then the epidemic is slowing down and we are going back to normal anyway.