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Biden backers unruffled by the overnight VP debate – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 8 in General
Biden backers unruffled by the overnight VP debate – politicalbetting.com

The overnight Pence-Harris VP debate has done nothing to change the WH2020 betting. @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/KbdfEd5EPM

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Comments

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 566
    edited October 8
    FPT:
    eristdoof said:

    HYUFD said:
    These polls seem to reflect public opinion and as I have said many times before, apart from this forum and the media, the public have little interest in US politics and Joe Biden will be an unknown to many
    Well most will at least know his name, as he was Vice President for 8 years. But I agree that most Europeans will know litte more about him than that.
    You could probably rephrase it as "Donald Trump" and "Not Donald Trump" and get quite similar results. In fact "Not Donald Trump" might even beat Biden as some who haven't heard of Biden might be more inclined to answer don't know if he is named.

    Edit: And 1st?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 456
    CNN polling of viewers of the debate scored it 56 - 41 for Harris. Women she allegedly scored 58-39 and with men much closer 48 - 46. However these folk were the nerds, not sure if that is repeated in the wider elecorate. BUT Harris does seem to be getting the womens vote, which could be vital.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    (FPT)
    eristdoof said:

    One big difference between the 2020 and the 2016 campaign is, four years ago there were lots of comments on forums from people who are Democrat voters but were criticising Mrs. Clinton.
    "She'll start WW III", email scandal etc. This time I'm not seeing any of this. The Biden critics are all clear Trumpers/Republicans. Those to the left of Biden are biting their tongue

    Agreed - and the other difference is that thus far even Biden critics don't have anything that's getting traction in the manner some of the Clinton attacks did.

    He might be a 77 year old showing his age, but his essential character is congenial to leading a broad coalition of the Democrats (though it will be interesting to see how that holds up in government), and one which makes him difficult to attack from the other side of the partisan divide.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,479
    edited October 8
    I'm not sure Pence is going to enjoy the symbolism of becoming the Lord of the Flies on national television...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    edited October 8
    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    theakes said:

    CNN polling of viewers of the debate scored it 56 - 41 for Harris. Women she allegedly scored 58-39 and with men much closer 48 - 46. However these folk were the nerds, not sure if that is repeated in the wider elecorate. BUT Harris does seem to be getting the womens vote, which could be vital.

    What were the viewing figures for the debate ?
    No one who didn't watch it will hear of, or recall anything except the fly (probably true of many who watched it, too).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,543
    If I remember correctly Pence was deemed to have "won" the 2016 debate, by dint of being smooth and unruffleable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    edited October 8

    alex_ said:



    For the strategy the government is pursuing (which increasingly I don't agree with) then opening the universities this autumn has been a disaster.

    Nottingham as an example was running at around 12-15 cases a day in early to mid September and then suddenly kaboom! Now around 300-odd.

    Now, if these are genuine cases (and not students who have normal freshers cold and flu who are getting tested and being told covid positive (i.e. false positives) then reopening unis this autumn was a massive blunder. It has bought the virus into towns that basically were running at a very low level of infection.

    It might work out as this will burn itself out amongst the students, if they are mainly kept on campus, and they will get some level of immunity. BUT, this is not the strategy of the government. It is the opposite of what they claim to be trying to achieve.

    How anyone can look at the figures and conclude that the problem (of rising case numbers) is hospitality venues and not universities is a mystery. And given the conditions that most university students live in, there is absolutely zero to stop it spreading among them until it burns out. Even under the most restrictive lockdowns.

    (I'm not paying much attention to these absurd rules that some universities seem to be trying about telling students to stay in their rooms at all times without having any social contact with the people they live directly with)
    Quite a bit of university accommodation is *designed* so that people *have* to mix together.

    Yes, that is the actual justification given for communal kitchens etc. Apparently, they were "worried" about students living in isolation in their own little flats.

    The Gods must be laughing about that.

    Being way cheaper to build and maintain is purely accidental. Of course.
    Communal student kitchens are so filthy that they probably constitute a biohazard in their own right. In fact it wouldn't surprise me if Covid-19 isn't eventually traced back to a left-over vegan lasagna left in the washing up bowl for seven weeks at the Wuhan University halls of residence.
    My accommodation checked ours for cleanliness regularly, even making sure we cleaned inside the oven. Of course, that was flats not halls.
    Chris said:

    If I remember correctly Pence was deemed to have "won" the 2016 debate, by dint of being smooth and unruffleable.

    Given all the chaos of the last 4 years, leading to resignations and sackings and impeachments, his unflappabilility is genuinely impressive as a political skill.
  • DayTripperDayTripper Posts: 70
    I've just read "Squeeze Me" by Carl Hiaasen, which is a fairly hilarious commentary on the Trump presidency, though how he's got away with some of the fictional events he includes is beyond me. Good bedtime reading for those who can't bear any more of 2020.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,815

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    So does that make the "pass legislation to break the treaty" business moot or is it about other stuff too? I mean, technically I think it enables a lot of otherwise-illegal stealing but as far as the official justification goes?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 4,292
    Am I right on this.

    We are leaving the EU but going to maintain regulatory alignment - so long as we get to decide for ourselves if we're in breach of the regulations. Does beg the question of why we are leaving. We want some control of our own fishing policy but probably not complete control. Is that about it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    Swing voters apparently not liking Harris's facial expressions while Pence was talking is something I don't understand at all. Must be an America vs European thing, or something.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    There was no real change after last night's debate though it was notably more civil and policy focused between Harris and Pence than the Biden and Trump debate
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 5,608

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,815
    Andy_JS said:

    Swing voters apparently not liking Harris's facial expressions while Pence was talking is something I don't understand at all. Must be an America vs European thing, or something.

    I don't think that's real, it's just something you can get people to say if you put them in a focus group and Frank Luntz says, "what did you think about their facial expressions".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    For someone on the other side of the coin. If we had to leave, good for Johnson. I was always hoping for a, more or less, BINO deal, and let's face it, even Cummings won't risk economic catastrophe for a handful of fishermen.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032
    The incidence of the coronavirus in universities is "very limited," according to Castells. The Minister of Universities, Manuel Castells, assures that the incidents caused by the coronavirus in the universities are "very limited" and have their origin outside the university campuses. He has said it in his appearance before the Commission of Science, Innovation and Universities of the Senate, at the request of the PP and Citizens, to report on the measures taken before the start of the university course, marked by the coronavirus.

    The main difference is many students live at home.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 8
    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    For someone on the other side of the coin. If we had to leave, good for Johnson. I was always hoping for a, more or less, BINO deal, and let's face it, even Cummings won't risk economic catastrophe for a handful of fishermen.
    Cummings won't. Gove might. Boris, who knows?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,073
    University and hospitality setting spread are not mutually exclusive.

    The geographic spread of outbreaks in university settings is interesting, in that the worst and earliest university outbreaks broadly correspond with the worst prior levels of community infection, which means either:

    (1) students have substantially gone to universities fairly local to their homes and brought COVID from home hotspots (tbh, I always thought the idea, in the UK at least, was to get as far away from home as possible! - Italian students going home to mamma every weekend was a culture shock)
    (2) students have initially caught it in the community in their university towns, presumably through social rather than didactic settings and brought it into the halls that way.

    The reality is a bit of both, so broadly the rapid Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle flare ups suggest city centre mixing in hot spots, the lag in Nottingham, Sheffield represents students coming from hot spots, then mixing; the lag in Birmingham represents students a little further out of town.

    Exeter aside, southern universities only seem to have small.outbreaks, which might yet develop, for e.g, in Bath, Canterbury, Royal Holloway. In fact Exeter, which had very little infection before term and whose surrounding countryside has very little infection still is by a long way the best bellwether and test ground for whether university infection can be kept out of the community.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    HYUFD said:
    They will change their tune after they spend hours queueing with the Russians waiting to clear immigration at Alicante Airport.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    edited October 8
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    As a former Remainer, good for Johnson, he has smashed the deal out of the park...well I am happy to tell him that if it means he agrees to it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,673

    Boris may have said "I'm leaving home". He may have packed a suitcase, Maggie the teddy bear may be perched awkwardly on top. He may have blamed Dad for not treating him like an adult.

    But he hasn't booked a taxi, because he doesn't really have anywhere to go, or the means to pay for it. And finding a place to stay, or a way to earn a living, wasn't really the plan.

    So Boris stands awkwardly in the hallway. The silence is broken by the ticking of the grandfather clock.


  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 8

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615
    Pro_Rata said:

    University and hospitality setting spread are not mutually exclusive.

    The geographic spread of outbreaks in university settings is interesting, in that the worst and earliest university outbreaks broadly correspond with the worst prior levels of community infection, which means either:

    (1) students have substantially gone to universities fairly local to their homes and brought COVID from home hotspots (tbh, I always thought the idea, in the UK at least, was to get as far away from home as possible! - Italian students going home to mamma every weekend was a culture shock)
    (2) students have initially caught it in the community in their university towns, presumably through social rather than didactic settings and brought it into the halls that way.

    The reality is a bit of both, so broadly the rapid Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle flare ups suggest city centre mixing in hot spots, the lag in Nottingham, Sheffield represents students coming from hot spots, then mixing; the lag in Birmingham represents students a little further out of town.

    Exeter aside, southern universities only seem to have small.outbreaks, which might yet develop, for e.g, in Bath, Canterbury, Royal Holloway. In fact Exeter, which had very little infection before term and whose surrounding countryside has very little infection still is by a long way the best bellwether and test ground for whether university infection can be kept out of the community.

    Outbreaks of what? If students are testing positive but not becoming ill, that is not the same as having 18-year-olds filling ICUs and reopening Nightingale hospitals. Just a few months ago, some experts were saying this asymptomatic spread is what we needed, yet now we see the four horsemen wearing college scarves.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    Why do you hope the CJEU are unilateral arbiters of our laws?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He's not really got a choice, has he?

    Boris may have said "I'm leaving home". He may have packed a suitcase, Maggie the teddy bear may be perched awkwardly on top. He may have blamed Dad for not treating him like an adult.

    But he hasn't booked a taxi, because he doesn't really have anywhere to go, or the means to pay for it. And finding a place to stay, or a way to earn a living, wasn't really the plan.

    So Boris stands awkwardly in the hallway. The silence is broken by the ticking of the grandfather clock.
    What beautiful prose. Are you SeanT.?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407
    86% of positives had no covid symptoms... calls for testing more asymptomatic... apparently cambridge are doing massed pooled testingof students.

    https://www.dovepress.com/three-quarters-of-people-with-sars-cov-2-infection-are-asymptomatic-an-peer-reviewed-article-CLEP
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,321

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    Why do you hope the CJEU are unilateral arbiters of our laws?
    Aren't you rather predetermining what will be agreed?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 4,615
    Farmers will be on the phone to their Conservative MPs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,007

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    @Philip_Thompson and @MaxPB:

    Let it go guys - we've left, you've won!

    Take a long hard look in the mirror and ask yourself if you honestly believe that none of the 52% who voted Leave were hoping for EEA or similar membership?

    If it's any consolation, I remain gutted that we've left, regardless.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    I don't think it will be too bad. And the arbitration mechanism can, of course, be used by both the UK and the EU - so if EU companies oversubsidise their firms we have recourse too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    Farmers will be on the phone to their Conservative MPs.
    Who cares? Now the Tories have the Red Wall sown up they don't need feudal farmers anymore.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    edited October 8
    Grandiose said:

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    Why do you hope the CJEU are unilateral arbiters of our laws?
    Aren't you rather predetermining what will be agreed?
    No, I'm not involved in the negotiations. I'm saying what I think should be agreed.

    If we agree to dynamic alignment to EU rules which they unilaterally decide and with the CJEU as unilateral arbiters - then I would oppose that.

    If we agree to common principles that we agree ourselves and to neutral arbitration - then I would support that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    The EU have already agreed the CJEU won't be arbiter.

    I think we're probably just going to agree what qualifies as state aid and what our subsidy regime will be. I honestly can't see a problem with that, nor the dispute governance.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,673

    Who cares? Now the Tories have the Red Wall sown up they don't need feudal farmers anymore.



    Like this...

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    So does that make the "pass legislation to break the treaty" business moot or is it about other stuff too? I mean, technically I think it enables a lot of otherwise-illegal stealing but as far as the official justification goes?
    Moot, since the full FTA will specify the details of how intra GB-NI trade will work and which goods need tarrifs/checking.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    The EU have already agreed the CJEU won't be arbiter.

    I think we're probably just going to agree what qualifies as state aid and what our subsidy regime will be. I honestly can't see a problem with that, nor the dispute governance.
    The ERG will fold. Even they know they have ridden this train all the way to the end of the line.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    I don't think it will be too bad. And the arbitration mechanism can, of course, be used by both the UK and the EU - so if EU companies oversubsidise their firms we have recourse too.
    So long as it is neutral. And so long as the principles are mutually agreed and not dynamically determined by the EU.

    The devil will be in the detail. If it is mutual and neutral then that is good. If it is dynamic and unilateral that is not.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 37,468
    RobD said:

    .

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    What a petty attitude.
    I expect lots of "hot takes" like this over the days and weeks to come.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,815

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    Boris doesn't get a deal: OBSTINATE RECKLESS FOOL - IDIOT! IDEOLOGUE!
    Borid does get a deal: BREXIT IN NAME ONLY!!! CAPITULATION!!
    Well, in theory there's a third option where he gets the kind of deal he and the Leave Campaign promised, let's wait and see how he gets on.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,130
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
    I obviously have no idea what has been agreed, but if you don't have control over decisions about state aid then as Philip says you haven't got control over 'our' laws and 'our' money. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you are on re state aid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    @Philip_Thompson and @MaxPB:

    Let it go guys - we've left, you've won!

    Take a long hard look in the mirror and ask yourself if you honestly believe that none of the 52% who voted Leave were hoping for EEA or similar membership?

    If it's any consolation, I remain gutted that we've left, regardless.
    Brexit, nonetheless achieved its single aim - a Johnson premiership.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Scott_xP said:
    Despite having less draconian measures than Sturgeon.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 1,278

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He's not really got a choice, has he?

    Boris may have said "I'm leaving home". He may have packed a suitcase, Maggie the teddy bear may be perched awkwardly on top. He may have blamed Dad for not treating him like an adult.

    But he hasn't booked a taxi, because he doesn't really have anywhere to go, or the means to pay for it. And finding a place to stay, or a way to earn a living, wasn't really the plan.

    So Boris stands awkwardly in the hallway. The silence is broken by the ticking of the grandfather clock.
    What beautiful prose. Are you SeanT.?
    Flattered, bu no. Really, no.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
    You don't seem to understand what the state aid issues are about. It isn't about just state bailouts to companies.

    The EU has been willing to call tax cuts 'state aid'. If we cut corporation tax below EU levels to attract investment into the UK then is that uncompetitive 'state aid'?

    Control over our tax rates is control of our money, not 'state aid'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    "Full lockdown 'left country more vulnerable to another wave' of COVID-19, study suggests

    Researchers said lockdown solves an immediate crisis without providing a long-term solution."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-short-term-lockdowns-could-result-in-more-covid-19-deaths-study-claims-12098766
  • HYUFD said:
    They will change their tune after they spend hours queueing with the Russians waiting to clear immigration at Alicante Airport.
    That won't be a problem - for Alicante airport. They have already created a wing specifically for UK flights. Right at the end of the terminal. With long long lines waiting to process inbound / outbound Brits.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Scott_xP said:
    I'm not sure highlighting things like this is a particularly good move on their part, not if they want people to take vaccines.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    Boris doesn't get a deal: OBSTINATE RECKLESS FOOL - IDIOT! IDEOLOGUE!
    Borid does get a deal: BREXIT IN NAME ONLY!!! CAPITULATION!!
    Hey, you may call it capitulation. I consider that sense has finally been seen.

    I would have rather have seen a Remain vote, but we are where we are.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,073

    Pro_Rata said:

    University and hospitality setting spread are not mutually exclusive.

    The geographic spread of outbreaks in university settings is interesting, in that the worst and earliest university outbreaks broadly correspond with the worst prior levels of community infection, which means either:

    (1) students have substantially gone to universities fairly local to their homes and brought COVID from home hotspots (tbh, I always thought the idea, in the UK at least, was to get as far away from home as possible! - Italian students going home to mamma every weekend was a culture shock)
    (2) students have initially caught it in the community in their university towns, presumably through social rather than didactic settings and brought it into the halls that way.

    The reality is a bit of both, so broadly the rapid Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle flare ups suggest city centre mixing in hot spots, the lag in Nottingham, Sheffield represents students coming from hot spots, then mixing; the lag in Birmingham represents students a little further out of town.

    Exeter aside, southern universities only seem to have small.outbreaks, which might yet develop, for e.g, in Bath, Canterbury, Royal Holloway. In fact Exeter, which had very little infection before term and whose surrounding countryside has very little infection still is by a long way the best bellwether and test ground for whether university infection can be kept out of the community.

    Outbreaks of what? If students are testing positive but not becoming ill, that is not the same as having 18-year-olds filling ICUs and reopening Nightingale hospitals. Just a few months ago, some experts were saying this asymptomatic spread is what we needed, yet now we see the four horsemen wearing college scarves.
    That is true up to a point. Relatively few students will die and it does move us modestly closer to herd immunity. But more will get long COVID, or develop health issues from COVID damage - it will hurt quite a number of students' long-term outcomes. So, the basic rules of isolation should apply, we shouldn't be going all out to encourage COVID parties here.

    The thing we do need to do is address and minimise as best we can the interface between student and wider society where there is a university outbreak, and that goes beyond normal quarantine of the sick and is location dependent - different for a student on the edge of central Manchester to one in Keele. See my earlier discussions of directing an at premise hospitality ban for matriculated students and possibly staff of particular universities, for instance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 8

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
    You don't seem to understand what the state aid issues are about. It isn't about just state bailouts to companies.

    The EU has been willing to call tax cuts 'state aid'. If we cut corporation tax below EU levels to attract investment into the UK then is that uncompetitive 'state aid'?

    Control over our tax rates is control of our money, not 'state aid'.
    Whatever you define it as there was no specific promise in the Tory manifesto on state aid, only on fishing and that is what matters not what your hero Cummings wants at any one time. Our corporation tax levels are already relatively low anyway and there is no popular desire to cut them further.

    Plus in July in a test case for your proposition the European General Court ruled that the Commission had not shown that Apple had received tax advantages from Ireland via low corporation tax anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    rkrkrk said:

    86% of positives had no covid symptoms... calls for testing more asymptomatic... apparently cambridge are doing massed pooled testingof students.

    https://www.dovepress.com/three-quarters-of-people-with-sars-cov-2-infection-are-asymptomatic-an-peer-reviewed-article-CLEP

    No symptoms on the day of the test.
    It’s very unlikely that the percentage of infected who continue to remain asymptomatic is anywhere near that high.

    We also know that the viral load is on average highest before symptoms develop, so it’s very likely that people are most infectious at this point.

    The research underscores the absolute necessity of large scale testing of populations before they become symptomatic, if we are to have any chance of controlling the spread.

    Which is what we ought to have planned for over the summer, and need to get sorted without delay.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    Andy_JS said:

    "Full lockdown 'left country more vulnerable to another wave' of COVID-19, study suggests

    Researchers said lockdown solves an immediate crisis without providing a long-term solution."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-short-term-lockdowns-could-result-in-more-covid-19-deaths-study-claims-12098766

    Sweden says Hej!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    Does it not matter that he he has been banging on about red lines, and then it turns out there were no red lines after all?
  • Hmmm - because we have never been locked down at any point? Lockdown is what @Sandpit had to put up with. Me, at the very worst of our "lockdown" able to go for a lengthy run every day, go and shop, buy takeway etc is not being locked down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 8
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
    I obviously have no idea what has been agreed, but if you don't have control over decisions about state aid then as Philip says you haven't got control over 'our' laws and 'our' money. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you are on re state aid.
    Reducing ECJ jurisdiction over the UK and the supremacy of EU law over the UK and ending our annual payments to Brussels all are reclaiming control of our laws and money enough to satisfy that part of the manifesto, I repeat there was no specific promise in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto to regain control of state aid, only an obsession by Philip's hero Dominic Cummings.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 22,324

    I'm not sure Pence is going to enjoy the symbolism of becoming the Lord of the Flies on national television...

    Not even Lord, his master sent the fly to check up on him and whisper sweet nothings into his ear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 8

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    Does it not matter that he he has been banging on about red lines, and then it turns out there were no red lines after all?
    There are red lines on reclaiming control of trade, replacing free movement with a points system and regaining control of fishing all of which were in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto and must be delivered, state aid is not a red line as it was not in the Tory manifesto and as a Tory activist and branch chairman that is all that matters to me
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    RobD said:

    .

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    What a petty attitude.
    I think you misunderstand the comment, which simply means that nichomar’s wishes for a settlement are very different from Philip’s.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
    You don't seem to understand what the state aid issues are about. It isn't about just state bailouts to companies.

    The EU has been willing to call tax cuts 'state aid'. If we cut corporation tax below EU levels to attract investment into the UK then is that uncompetitive 'state aid'?

    Control over our tax rates is control of our money, not 'state aid'.
    Whatever you define it as there was no specific promise in the Tory manifesto on state aid, only on fishing and that is what matters not what your hero Cummings wants at any one time. Our corporation tax levels are already relatively low anyway and there is no popular desire to cut them further.

    Plus in July in a test case for your proposition the European General Court ruled that the Commission had not shown that Apple had received tax advantages from Ireland via low corporation tax anyway.
    There was a specific promise to control our laws and money.

    If the LPF (which goes way beyond state aid) means we do not have control of our laws and money then that commitment is broken.

    If the LPF means we still have full control of our laws and money then I have no problems.

    That the EU lost one case against Ireland does not mean they can't try something similar with us and if the arbitration is not neutral then that is a problem. Hence the need for neutral and not politicised arbitration.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 566
    Answer: They are working (probably making things less bad than they otherwise would have been). If they are not working well enough it is because they are not strict enough.

    There's a serious debate about whether the other harms that would be caused by stricter lock down are or are not a price worth paying. Those harms are significant, but many of them will also come if infection and death rates rise greatly - e.g. closing down hospitality services is devastating to the industry, but customers will stop going anyway if infection rates get bad enough.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 36,505
    Cummings seems desperate to spit in the face of Middle England.

    At some point politicians who actually face the electorate are going to have to get rid of him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    .

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    What a petty attitude.
    I think you misunderstand the comment, which simply means that nichomar’s wishes for a settlement are very different from Philip’s.
    How though?

    All I've said is that we should control our own laws and money, have a common mutual agreement and neutral arbitration. Which part of that would nichomar be objecting to? Does he find the idea of neutral arbitration repugnant?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    "Thousands of scientists and health experts have joined a global movement warning of "grave concerns" about Covid-19 lockdown policies.

    Nearly 6,000 experts, including dozens from the UK, say the approach is having a devastating impact on physical and mental health as well as society.

    They are calling for protection to be focused on the vulnerable, while healthy people get on with their lives."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54442386#
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    Does it not matter that he he has been banging on about red lines, and then it turns out there were no red lines after all?
    There are red lines on reclaiming control of trade, replacing free movement with a points system and regaining control of free movement all of which were in the winning 2019 Tory manifesto and must be delivered, state aid is not a red line as it was not in the Tory manifesto and as a Tory activist and branch chairman that is all that matters to me
    Funny how you listed the third, fourth, fifth and sixth commitments but not the first and second.

    Control of laws and control of money were in the manifesto, were they not?

    If the LPF agreement says we can not control our laws or control our money then we have a problem, do we not?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 7,673

    Cummings seems desperate to spit in the face of Middle England.

    At some point politicians who actually face the electorate are going to have to get rid of him.

    Does BoZo sacrifice Cummings to keep his job (that he can't do without him), or does Gove sacrifice BoZo to keep Cummings?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021
    Andy_JS said:

    "Thousands of scientists and health experts have joined a global movement warning of "grave concerns" about Covid-19 lockdown policies.

    Nearly 6,000 experts, including dozens from the UK, say the approach is having a devastating impact on physical and mental health as well as society.

    They are calling for protection to be focused on the vulnerable, while healthy people get on with their lives."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54442386#

    How many astronomers and pure mathematicians are on this one?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    edited October 8

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    If Johnson falls for that he's become Boris In Name Only.
    He won't, there was no 2019 Tory manifesto promise on state aid only on fishing
    You're wrong. This is the promise:

    "This future relationship will be one that allows us to:
    • Take back control of our laws.
    • Take back control of our money.
    • Control our own trade policy.
    • Introduce an Australian-style points based immigration system.
    • Raise standards in areas like workers’ rights, animal welfare, agriculture and the environment.
    • Ensure we are in full control of our fishing waters."
    State aid is control of our laws and control of our money. Literally the first two things promised.
    No it isn't, handing state bailouts to companies is not taking back control of our laws nor our money, it is intervention to distort the free market.

    As I correctly said there was no manifesto promise specifically to reclaim control of state aid
    You don't seem to understand what the state aid issues are about. It isn't about just state bailouts to companies.

    The EU has been willing to call tax cuts 'state aid'. If we cut corporation tax below EU levels to attract investment into the UK then is that uncompetitive 'state aid'?

    Control over our tax rates is control of our money, not 'state aid'.
    Whatever you define it as there was no specific promise in the Tory manifesto on state aid, only on fishing and that is what matters not what your hero Cummings wants at any one time. Our corporation tax levels are already relatively low anyway and there is no popular desire to cut them further.

    Plus in July in a test case for your proposition the European General Court ruled that the Commission had not shown that Apple had received tax advantages from Ireland via low corporation tax anyway.
    There was a specific promise to control our laws and money.

    If the LPF (which goes way beyond state aid) means we do not have control of our laws and money then that commitment is broken.

    If the LPF means we still have full control of our laws and money then I have no problems.

    That the EU lost one case against Ireland does not mean they can't try something similar with us and if the arbitration is not neutral then that is a problem. Hence the need for neutral and not politicised arbitration.
    Even William Hague agrees with me we can do a deal if we compromise on state aid and that would still respect the winning 2019 Tory manifesto.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/07/brexit-deal-beckons-no-10-stops-stubborn-state-aid/

    Though as you voted Labour in 2001 but now seem to think you can dictate all current Tory policy why would you take notice of William Hague?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 566
    RobD said:

    .

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Boom. Looks like State Aid will be wrapped up in next week and then there'll be a political call on fish very late doors. We should be ok.

    "One EU source said that Mr Barnier had told diplomats: “Maintaining the status quo in UK waters will not be feasible. So the most concerned member states will need to explore room to move towards the UK in terms of quota allocation; provided the UK meets the EU on governance and state aid.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/johnson-ready-to-make-concessions-to-eu-says-official-zqmlf5r9v

    This fills me with dread. I'm going to reserve judgement until we know what kind of agreement has been struck on the LPF, if it's anything like what the EU were asking for then I'll probably join whichever party pops up to abrogate the trade treaty.
    If its what the EU were originally asking for it is absolutely unacceptable.

    If its closer to what we agreed with the Japanese that is eminently agreeable.

    The EU and the CJEU can not be the arbiters of it. Any arbitration must be neutral.
    I hope you are horrified by the deal
    What a petty attitude.
    I can't speak for @nichomar , but it's a reasonable comment if he/she judges that any deal that horrifies @Philip_Thompson will be, to @nichomar , a good deal. I suspect that any deal welcomed by @Philip_Thompson will not look all that good to me - unless it's a real have cake and eat it situation in which case we could both be happy, so I'd probably prefer a deal that makes him unhappy, but not due to any bad wishes towards him.
  • Philip will say anything Johnson brings back is a great deal, just as he did with the first deal and then immediately did a 180 as soon as Johnson did
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,007
    Scott_xP said:

    Cummings seems desperate to spit in the face of Middle England.

    At some point politicians who actually face the electorate are going to have to get rid of him.

    Does BoZo sacrifice Cummings to keep his job (that he can't do without him), or does Gove sacrifice BoZo to keep Cummings?
    Surely, the question is: does Cummings sacrifice Boris and replace him with Gove?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,037
    Would he have been a better choice? Maybe.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,641
    Scott_xP said:

    Cummings seems desperate to spit in the face of Middle England.

    At some point politicians who actually face the electorate are going to have to get rid of him.

    Does BoZo sacrifice Cummings to keep his job (that he can't do without him), or does Gove sacrifice BoZo to keep Cummings?
    How about the Tory Party sacrifice all 3 of them?
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