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In the £105m WH2020 exchanges its Biden 62% – Trump 35% – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,019
edited October 2020 in General
In the £105m WH2020 exchanges its Biden 62% – Trump 35% – politicalbetting.com

After an eventful day the latest WH2020 betting. @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/CSfnntdWbp

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,605
    edited October 2020
    First. Like the Lady with Covid.
  • Options
    Second like Don in the popular vote.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328
    I'm suspending betting for now until the Covid-19/Trump situation becomes clearer.

    Most likely: he recovers and argues for a delay/advantage that he doesn't get and then cries major foul at the result.

    Not sure it's going to be pretty.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    But not that good. I was expecting more movement when betfair reopened.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    Starmer By Election Gain surely
    People don't tend to blame the incumbent party for the sins of the disgraced former incumbent, I think.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,403
    edited October 2020
    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Depends on the university, if you went to the finest university in the world then reading English at graduate level can get you a top top job, see for example Richard Burgon who read English Literature at St John's, and is likely to be a future Labour leader, if not future Prime Minister.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    I assume “polyclonal antibody cocktail” is just the technical word for “broth”. Or perhaps “bleach”?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited October 2020

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Depends on the university, if you went to the finest university in the world then reading English at graduate level can get you a top top job, see for example Richard Burgon who read English Literature at St John's, and is likely to be a future Labour leader, if not future Prime Minister.
    Fair point - you got me.
  • Options
    FPT

    I did my undergraduate degree at nice Russell Group Newcastle University and was full of snobbery for the “ex-polys”. I am now doing a Master of Law degree at Northumbria and realise the snobbery was total rubbish. If anything the quality of teaching is better at the ex-poly than it was at the red brick.

    I would suggest people check their prejudices.

    You mean the poly students have to be spoon fed, while the Russell Group students are independent learners?
    For the money I’m paying, I want to be spoon-fed liquid gold.
    You are Crassus and I claim my £5.
    Because I’m a pleb I had to do a Google to understand that reference.
    When I become the country's first directly elected dictator I will close all the former polys change the history curriculum to ensure classical history is the centrepiece of the curriculum.
    With Morris Dancer in charge of implementing the policy?

    I want to improve the historical knowledge of the country, not damage it, Morris Dancer will be sent to the historical re-education camps.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,328

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Depends on the university, if you went to the finest university in the world then reading English at graduate level can get you a top top job, see for example Richard Burgon who read English Literature at St John's, and is likely to be a future Labour leader, if not future Prime Minister.
    RBWNBPM.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599

    I assume “polyclonal antibody cocktail” is just the technical word for “broth”. Or perhaps “bleach”?

    Sounds like recovered patient serum to me.

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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Depends on the university, if you went to the finest university in the world then reading English at graduate level can get you a top top job, see for example Richard Burgon who read English Literature at St John's, and is likely to be a future Labour leader, if not future Prime Minister.
    I thought you couldn't do a DPhil (as they call them at proper universities) in English law because the fiction is that all the law already exists (it just gets expounded by the courts) so original research is impossible.

    PhDs are absolutely not about the university anyway, they are about the individual supervisor and the examiners.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    It seems as if Team Trump was not tested before the Cleveland debate:

    https://twitter.com/AndrewKirell/status/1312121190597586944?s=19
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208

    I'm suspending betting for now until the Covid-19/Trump situation becomes clearer.

    Most likely: he recovers and argues for a delay/advantage that he doesn't get and then cries major foul at the result.

    Not sure it's going to be pretty.

    My occasional reminder that Steve Bannon warned that Trump's time would end very, very badly.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057

    I assume “polyclonal antibody cocktail” is just the technical word for “broth”. Or perhaps “bleach”?

    Equal parts scotch, sweet vermouth, cherry liqueur and orange juice.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Johnson’s administration places no such premium on good governance. Why might that be? First, look to the top. All institutions ultimately reflect the personality and priorities of the person in charge, governments especially. Even the prime minister’s admirers don’t pretend that he’s a details man, across policy and process. One colleague says of Johnson’s earlier spell as the capital’s mayor: “He was basically chaotic, shagging his way around London, writing articles,” leaving the actual work to his staff. Recall last year’s revelation of a scribbled note referring to his predecessor as “girly swot Cameron”. Put aside the reflexive sexism and absorb a work ethic so lax it regards Notting Hill’s king of chillax as a relentless Stakhanovite.

    So this government will keep messing up, of course it will. Covid has ripped the mask off the man who leads it and exposed its driving purpose. It has revealed both for what they are.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/02/incompetence-brexit-johnson-cummings-pandemic
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274
    Scott_xP said:
    Billie Eilish and James Bond; who’d have thought?
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Gallowgate said in the last thread "Because I’m a pleb I had to do a Google to understand that reference."

    Well, The great Richard Feynman, a Jewish boy from New York, was admonished by his first wife from her hospital bed with "What Do You Care What Other People Think?" It stayed with him for the rest of his life.
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    TresTres Posts: 2,225
    Must be serious if President Tweet can no longer manage that.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    Toms said:

    Gallowgate said in the last thread "Because I’m a pleb I had to do a Google to understand that reference."

    Well, The great Richard Feynman, a Jewish boy from New York, was admonished by his first wife from her hospital bed with "What Do You Care What Other People Think?" It stayed with him for the rest of his life.

    Thats a great quote.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Depends on the university, if you went to the finest university in the world then reading English at graduate level can get you a top top job, see for example Richard Burgon who read English Literature at St John's, and is likely to be a future Labour leader, if not future Prime Minister.
    He went to the finest uni in the world? I thought he was at Cambridge.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,204
    Tres said:

    Must be serious if President Tweet can no longer manage that.

    David Cameron was wrong when he said ‘too many tweets make a twat.’

    It was, rather, too many twats make tweets.

    Exhibit A - Donald Trump.
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    kle4 said:

    Starmer By Election Gain surely
    People don't tend to blame the incumbent party for the sins of the disgraced former incumbent, I think.
    True. Lib Dems held Eastleigh.
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    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Tres said:

    Must be serious if President Tweet can no longer manage that.

    People with mild symptoms don't get experimental drug cocktails pumped into them 'without incident'.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    Biden's delivering his speech in a mask.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    Only until 10pm though.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Foxy said:

    Toms said:

    Gallowgate said in the last thread "Because I’m a pleb I had to do a Google to understand that reference."

    Well, The great Richard Feynman, a Jewish boy from New York, was admonished by his first wife from her hospital bed with "What Do You Care What Other People Think?" It stayed with him for the rest of his life.

    Thats a great quote.
    Feynman was a great mythologiser. His stories all follow the same pattern.

    In a true Feynman story, everyone but Feynman emerges as a jerk.

    A Feynman story should be treated with the same caution as a politician's story.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    It is as I have been saying, if Trump had the remotest bit of message discipline he'd be in with a decent chance. But on every other topic apart from "the economy stupid" he is a loser and he can't help but talk about other topics.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    Hope Hicks tested negative on Tues and Wed. Then positive.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    Alistair said:

    Tres said:

    Must be serious if President Tweet can no longer manage that.

    People with mild symptoms don't get experimental drug cocktails pumped into them 'without incident'.
    Not on normal protocols.

    One of the biggest mistakes Doctors make with "special" patients is to not treat them the same as their other patients.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    Is legal action looming in TX over mail-in ballot drop off stations?

    https://twitter.com/ForTheRuleOfLaw/status/1312102834456805377
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited October 2020
    FPT
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Physics actually, my wife has a masters from UCL which helped her get into corporate and government intelligence, again pretty sure one from London Met wouldn't have given her the same opportunities. Her master's is in a branch of economics which is extremely unscientific.
    We’re discussing two different things though now. You’re talking about “reputation” whereas before we were talking about whether “research output” was relevant to most students.

    If you are personally funding a taught masters (rather than research), you are going to want the best teaching possible for your money. You assume you are going to get that from a very well-regarded university like UCL, but when you get to the 10-20 ranked universities, I don’t think the reputation to teaching quality ratio is as good as most people seem to think.

    Regardless, Northumbria University Law School is well regarded amongst North East law firms so that’s all that matters to me. It helps that they are the only university north of Leeds that offers the relevant course. Newcastle does not.
  • Options
    TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Foxy said:

    Toms said:

    Gallowgate said in the last thread "Because I’m a pleb I had to do a Google to understand that reference."

    Well, The great Richard Feynman, a Jewish boy from New York, was admonished by his first wife from her hospital bed with "What Do You Care What Other People Think?" It stayed with him for the rest of his life.

    Thats a great quote.
    Feynman was a great mythologiser. His stories all follow the same pattern.

    In a true Feynman story, everyone but Feynman emerges as a jerk.

    A Feynman story should be treated with the same caution as a politician's story.
    Here's a Feynman story:
    We undergrads had him around to dinner at our "House". That was before he remarried. Chatting afterwards he requested three of us, just for the heck of it, to each clap fairly slowly, but randomly, while he counted each separately in binary. Don't ask why. But he managed it.
  • Options
    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    And (if you book) visit exhibitions without crowds (Artemesia at the National Gallery is superb), or hear exqusite concerts at the Wigmore Hall in spacious comfort.
  • Options
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    He looks like he's wearing George III's wig.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599

    FPT

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Toms said:

    MaxPB said:

    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    Now my opinion of Northumbria university has never been high but even so this takes some doing

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1312049616997752836

    I don't know if there is data on this but the student infection outbreaks seem to involve a few of the crapper 'universities'.
    According to the Guardian, Northumbria Law School ranks above Exeter, Birmingham, Warwick, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Nottingham, etc...
    The Guardian rankings are nonsense. They don't include any measure of research output and use a very dubious value added system.
    Is research output particularly relevant to students?
    It is very relevant to postgraduate students. But anyway, the discussion was "crap or crapper" universities, so yes research output is relevant.
    I’m a postgraduate student. Research output is not relevant to me.
    Isn't that when it's most important?
    Absolutely yes if you're aiming for a PhD in Science and/or maths.
    But not if you want an actual job.
    If you want one afterwards? My best mate at uni went on to do his PhD at Imperial and he walked into an R&D job at a big defence firm afterwards. Not sure he would have got the same opportunity had he stuck around at Cardiff.
    Well nobody is denying that Imperial is a better university than Cardiff, especially when it comes to Engineering of some kind, I assume?

    However doing a PhD in Law is not likely to fast-track you very far in getting a training contract at a large law firm, at least as far as I’m aware.

    Likewise doing a PhD in History or English is not going to go far in helping you get a job.
    Physics actually, my wife has a masters from UCL which helped her get into corporate and government intelligence, again pretty sure one from London Met wouldn't have given her the same opportunities. Her master's is in a branch of economics which is extremely unscientific.
    We’re discussing two different things though now. You’re talking about “reputation” whereas before we were talking about whether “research output” was relevant to most students.

    If you are personally funding a taught masters (rather than research), you are going to want the best teaching possible for your money. You assume you are going to get that from a very well-regarded university like UCL, but when you get to the 10-20 ranked universities, I don’t think the reputation to teaching quality ratio is as good as most people seem to think.

    Regardless, Northumbria University Law School is well regarded amongst North East law firms so that’s all that matters to me. It helps that they are the only university north of Leeds that offers the relevant course. Newcastle does not.
    Too many in Britain are obsessed with reputation, rather than reality. Twas ever thus.

  • Options

    Is legal action looming in TX over mail-in ballot drop off stations?

    https://twitter.com/ForTheRuleOfLaw/status/1312102834456805377

    Yep. This is the USA.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,662
    edited October 2020
    FPT (Because I as usual I am still browsing the previous thread, doh!)
    LadyG said:

    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    MrEd said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    MrEd said:

    TimT said:

    MrEd said:

    Pew saying Black vote split 91-6 for Clinton.

    If those numbers are anywhere near the result, then - given the importance of the Black vote to the Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and the Hispanic vote in Arizona and Florida - Trump is likely to win the EC. You might even see places like NV being in play.

    I can - with difficulty - see how Trump's performance might have appealed to a segment of Hispanic voters who like the Strong Man leader. Not seeing any way that performance appealed to any section of the Black population.

    I will not read much into that poll until there are more post-debate polls. The only other recent poll I looked at had Biden increasing his lead, but that was an eve of debate poll, not post.
    Biden's "You Ain't Black" comment was a real game changer for a fair few Black Americans, particularly the younger ones. It didn't get talked about much but, since then, I've noticed more Black pro-Trump social media sites popping up

    (Note: Mrs Ed is a Black American. Has not voted Republican since 04. Voting for Trump this year).
    Presumably not bothered by Trump refusing to condemn white supremacists...
    I am sensing he is the new plato.
    Ok, look I am quite happy to go back and sit in the shadows, and not comment. That's fine. But this is a betting website. There were plenty of people on here - and I think you were one of them - ramping up how we should all go on Biden after that debate because Trump was now toast. We now have the first poll after the debate that shows he has cut Biden's lead. For the sake of your bank balance alone, don't you think you should consider evidence that maybe goes against your views.

    For someone who appears to proclaim himself such a liberal, you seem an awfully narrow minded individual.

    Please keep commenting, and ignore the Lefty morons.
    And AFTER the election too, one hopes.
    Mr. Ed is a valuable resource to this site and provides insights from a pro-Trump perspective that is sadly lacking on here from anywhere else.

    He is vociferously and personally attacked by some posters because of this.

    I have zero respect for them. Quite frankly, I'd rather they were banned than Mr. Ed bullied off the site because he refuses to me yet another little Sir Echo.

    If you want an echo chamber go and form a Facebook group or customise your own Twitter feed.

    This is a betting site and I value opposing and conflicting views - *especially* when they go against the grain of what everyone else is saying.
    Thank you @Casino_Royale, that is really appreciated. Kudos to you for standing up.

    I too watched the debate and I thought it was outrageously entertaining, and far from a slam-dunk Biden win.


    Trump was belligerent, nasty, snide, shouty, but he was also clever and hit home with some very sharp jabs, which made Biden look the second rate has-been that he is. And Biden was no saint, he was full of insults - "clown", "liar" etc, that didn't particularly work because they looked like the Washington elite sneering at the outside (however untrue that perception is)

    I am not surprised the polls hint at Trump recovering ground. My reading was that Trump won a very bloody, hair-raising yet compelling debate (and a debate which made anything similar in Britain look infinitely tedious, even we ours are "well behaved").

    For this reason I do not believe the Trump Covid Hoax stuff. He did relatively well in that debate. He would relish another.
    Are the polls hinting at Trump recovering ground?

    We had the IDB one with just a 3% lead for Biden, I'll give you that.

    But we've also had Data for Progress (+10), USC (+8), IPSOS (+9) and Change Research (+13) all showing leads for Biden, all covering or partly covering the period since the debate. Plus a slew of state plls favourable to Biden.

    I think we need to wait and see.
  • Options
    Mike are you sure the market's moved to Biden today?

    Your thread this time yesterday before the news broke said that it was now 63% Biden, 36% Trump.

    Today's thread says it is now 62% Biden, 35% Trump.

    That doesn't look like a swing to Biden to me. That looks like a swing to A. N. Other.

    Am I missing something?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,964
    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,981
    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    Is this true?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    Isn’t there another special election happening, albeit a likely GOP win? I forget which state though.
  • Options

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    You still don't get that the Tories are the party that tries to help the young get on the housing ladder do you?

    The party have already done more to help the young get onto the housing ladder in the past decade than New Labour did in 13 years. Of course having had 13 years of Labour malfeasance to reverse and two major economic crises to tackle means the job isn't done yet, but its getting better or was pre-COVID.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    The key is to consider whether doing so will actually help him, and his party. The answer is yes, in the long run, so I can believe he is sincere about wanting to do something to help in that area. But because of the inevitable difficulties and objections, I imagine he would be too weak or lacking in determination to follow through.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    That 's an extremely good point.

    I see the Republican PACs are pumping money into SC but also MI - I think James winning MI is going to be one of the surprises of the night.
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    Mike are you sure the market's moved to Biden today?

    Your thread this time yesterday before the news broke said that it was now 63% Biden, 36% Trump.

    Today's thread says it is now 62% Biden, 35% Trump.

    That doesn't look like a swing to Biden to me. That looks like a swing to A. N. Other.

    Am I missing something?

    Sporting index spreads have moved slightly towards Trump. Biden now 303-309, was 305-311 last night.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited October 2020

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    Isn’t there another special election happening, albeit a likely GOP win? I forget which state though.
    It’s Georgia.
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    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Scott_xP said:
    Why don't they just say ALL OF HUMAN LIFE is now delayed until 2021
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150

    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    And (if you book) visit exhibitions without crowds (Artemesia at the National Gallery is superb), or hear exqusite concerts at the Wigmore Hall in spacious comfort.
    L'enfer, c'est les autres.
    N'est ce pas?

  • Options
    LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    Is this true?
    Yes, absolutely. Go on Opentable. From the trendiest Shoreditch dinery to regularly booked-out stalwarts like the Ivy or Scotts, places that needed booking weeks ahead can now be booked tomorrow, and not at 3pm either
  • Options
    geoffw said:

    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    And (if you book) visit exhibitions without crowds (Artemesia at the National Gallery is superb), or hear exqusite concerts at the Wigmore Hall in spacious comfort.
    L'enfer, c'est les autres.
    N'est ce pas?

    Not exactly. It's just great to be able to stand and see the painting, or listen to Angela Hewitt's Bach, without distraction.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,662

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    You still don't get that the Tories are the party that tries to help the young get on the housing ladder do you?

    The party have already done more to help the young get onto the housing ladder in the past decade than New Labour did in 13 years. Of course having had 13 years of Labour malfeasance to reverse and two major economic crises to tackle means the job isn't done yet, but its getting better or was pre-COVID.
    How many years do you think you can stretch this "it's all Labour's fault" line out for?
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    geoffw said:

    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    And (if you book) visit exhibitions without crowds (Artemesia at the National Gallery is superb), or hear exqusite concerts at the Wigmore Hall in spacious comfort.
    L'enfer, c'est les autres.
    N'est ce pas?

    Unless Richard in splendid isolation in Artemisia spent lots of money in the restaurant and the book shop, then the NG won't be able to afford to put on future exhibitions.

    The crowds in the exhibition are needed to pay the money to finance the loans of artworks.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,925
    My tip of the day would be to cover Pence on Betdaq, rules clearer than Betfair on candidate death.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2020
    The biggest problem with the Guardian uni ranking approach is it is based in idea of value added. Thus, the lower your entry standards the more you get rewards for somebody getting the degree at the end.

    You could argue that means the teaching must be better as it enabled students who came with lower grades to achieve the same as those at other unis who started from a better level of attainment. What it doesn't tell you is how good that degree actually is, because unlike A-Levels not everybody is sitting the same exam in the same small set of subjects at the end. And across wildly different subjects from theoretical to vocational, the difficulty of a degree is enormous.

    And of course because of the doshola, no uni wants to fail anybody these days.

    And finally, the Guardian algorithm for whatever reason appears to be extreme volatile from year to year e.g. Northumbria when from from 47 to 27 in a single year. While with the likes of the Times I believe it remains in the 50-60 range.

    All that been said, there has definitely been an issue among some traditional unis failure to up their game, still resting on their reputation of being old. In the past 25 years, a number of newer unis such as Warwick, Exeter, York, Bath have moved right up to be consistently now in the top 10-15.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why don't they just say ALL OF HUMAN LIFE is now delayed until 2021
    The film to see this week is La Haine remastered.

  • Options

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    You still don't get that the Tories are the party that tries to help the young get on the housing ladder do you?

    The party have already done more to help the young get onto the housing ladder in the past decade than New Labour did in 13 years. Of course having had 13 years of Labour malfeasance to reverse and two major economic crises to tackle means the job isn't done yet, but its getting better or was pre-COVID.
    How many years do you think you can stretch this "it's all Labour's fault" line out for?
    Good question. When will Labour stop banging on about Thatcher? Brown left office 21 years after her.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    Is legal action looming in TX over mail-in ballot drop off stations?

    https://twitter.com/ForTheRuleOfLaw/status/1312102834456805377

    It's remarkable that a politician can on a whim change the voting arrangements in the middle of the actual vote. Particularly when he had championed the original arrangements
  • Options

    geoffw said:

    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    And (if you book) visit exhibitions without crowds (Artemesia at the National Gallery is superb), or hear exqusite concerts at the Wigmore Hall in spacious comfort.
    L'enfer, c'est les autres.
    N'est ce pas?

    Unless Richard in splendid isolation in Artemisia spent lots of money in the restaurant and the book shop, then the NG won't be able to afford to put on future exhibitions.

    The crowds in the exhibition are needed to pay the money to finance the loans of artworks.
    This is true, but isn't a reason not to enjoy it now. And you can help the restaurants survive afterwards.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    How many "changes everything" have we had with Trump?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,964

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    Isn’t there another special election happening, albeit a likely GOP win? I forget which state though.
    There's a Special Election in Georgia.

    It's a Jungle Primary, though, which means that if the leading candidate gets less than 50% (a dead cert), then there's a run-off in January.

    There are three serious candidates: Kelly Loeffler (the appointed incumbent), Doug Collins (his principle Republican challenger) and Raphael Warnock (the Democrat).

    The polling currently has Warnock on just shy of 40%, with Collins and Loeffler in the mid-20s.

    My gut is that if Collins faces Warnock, then it's a Republican hold. But if its Loeffler vs Warnock then it's going to be much closer.
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    The men in grey suits will be coming to have a word with Boris next year. If there is one thing the Tories are good at, it is removing crap leaders / leaders who have served their purpose.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,577
    edited October 2020
    The REGN antibody treatment actually looks pretty good as a prophylactic for recently infected patients.
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/provocative-results-boost-hopes-antibody-treatment-covid-19

    If I were an obese septuagenarian recently diagnosed, I’d probably roll those dice.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why don't they just say ALL OF HUMAN LIFE is now delayed until 2021
    That soon? Optimistic...
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why don't they just say ALL OF HUMAN LIFE is now delayed until 2021
    To be fair it's not a bad Bond film title.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    There's also the Georgia special election. Theoretically a Dem candidate could get 50% in the first round and short circuit the Jungle Primary to take the seat.

    It won't happen but it is a possibility.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Toms said:

    Foxy said:

    Toms said:

    Gallowgate said in the last thread "Because I’m a pleb I had to do a Google to understand that reference."

    Well, The great Richard Feynman, a Jewish boy from New York, was admonished by his first wife from her hospital bed with "What Do You Care What Other People Think?" It stayed with him for the rest of his life.

    Thats a great quote.
    Feynman was a great mythologiser. His stories all follow the same pattern.

    In a true Feynman story, everyone but Feynman emerges as a jerk.

    A Feynman story should be treated with the same caution as a politician's story.
    Here's a Feynman story:
    We undergrads had him around to dinner at our "House". That was before he remarried. Chatting afterwards he requested three of us, just for the heck of it, to each clap fairly slowly, but randomly, while he counted each separately in binary. Don't ask why. But he managed it.
    That is a great Feynman Story.

    Mine is not so good. I met him only once on a visit to CalTech, at a departmental party.

    He ignored the faculty and spent all his time flirting with the secretaries. This was after his first serious cancer battle.

    So, when I say met him, I mean I glimpsed him from a great distance.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,577

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    Isn’t there another special election happening, albeit a likely GOP win? I forget which state though.
    It’s Georgia.
    Yes, but the eventual winner will not be seated early.
    I think we discussed this a few days ago.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,662

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    You still don't get that the Tories are the party that tries to help the young get on the housing ladder do you?

    The party have already done more to help the young get onto the housing ladder in the past decade than New Labour did in 13 years. Of course having had 13 years of Labour malfeasance to reverse and two major economic crises to tackle means the job isn't done yet, but its getting better or was pre-COVID.
    How many years do you think you can stretch this "it's all Labour's fault" line out for?
    Good question. When will Labour stop banging on about Thatcher? Brown left office 21 years after her.
    Largely that stopped in 1997. You Tories need to start defending your own record now.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599

    The men in grey suits will be coming to have a word with Boris next year. If there is one thing the Tories are good at, it is removing crap leaders / leaders who have served their purpose.

    It took two years to get shot of the "dead woman walking".
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    You still don't get that the Tories are the party that tries to help the young get on the housing ladder do you?

    The party have already done more to help the young get onto the housing ladder in the past decade than New Labour did in 13 years. Of course having had 13 years of Labour malfeasance to reverse and two major economic crises to tackle means the job isn't done yet, but its getting better or was pre-COVID.
    How many years do you think you can stretch this "it's all Labour's fault" line out for?
    Brown tried the reverse 13 years into office, albeit not successfully, so I would imagine a few more years yet. And given the majority, even if not successfully used it might see them through to another term.
    FF43 said:

    Is legal action looming in TX over mail-in ballot drop off stations?

    https://twitter.com/ForTheRuleOfLaw/status/1312102834456805377

    It's remarkable that a politician can on a whim change the voting arrangements in the middle of the actual vote. Particularly when he had championed the original arrangements
    Remarkable is certainly one word for it.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957
    @TSE @Philip_Thompson .
    Sadio Mane tests positive.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why don't they just say ALL OF HUMAN LIFE is now delayed until 2021
    That soon? Optimistic...
    There is a lot of denial about our plight.

    My guess is 2023.
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    MrEd said:

    How many "changes everything" have we had with Trump?
    Nobody is talking about his taxes now....not that i thought Trump was going to win, but the big issue he has now is he can't do his rallies which in 2016 created such a large amount of coverage and often outside of the main national media.

    Because of COVID restricting crowds and this time he hasn't found a lock her up / build the wall type slogan, I dont think they were building much momentum anyway, but this definitely stops any of it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    MrEd said:

    How many "changes everything" have we had with Trump?
    It is something he has been a master at, with so many things to outrage his opponents (Democratic and Republican - or former Republican at any rate) that I feel like exhaustion induced apathy long since set in. Things that would have caused a stir years ago probably no longer even get commented on, and nothing he says or does, or happens to him in this case, seems like it can shake things around much.
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    dixiedean said:

    @TSE @Philip_Thompson .
    Sadio Mane tests positive.

    Will the last few remaining footballers who haven't had covid please report to the front desk so we can complete herd immunity.
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    Is legal action looming in TX over mail-in ballot drop off stations?

    https://twitter.com/ForTheRuleOfLaw/status/1312102834456805377

    Confused here! If it is a mail in ballot dont you just drop it off in the mail?
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    dixiedean said:

    @TSE @Philip_Thompson .
    Sadio Mane tests positive.

    That's two down with it now. What's the threshold to start postponing fixtures, surely Mane has been in close contact with others in the squad?
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    LadyG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Why don't they just say ALL OF HUMAN LIFE is now delayed until 2021
    That soon? Optimistic...
    There is a lot of denial about our plight.

    My guess is 2023.
    That soon? Optimistic...
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,599
    dixiedean said:

    @TSE @Philip_Thompson .
    Sadio Mane tests positive.

    Leicester are playing the West Ham plague carriers on Sunday.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,981
    LadyG said:

    LadyG said:

    The one unnoticed advantage of Covid is that you can now get tables at the most exquisite London restaurants with barely 24 hours notice.

    Silver linings, eh.

    Is this true?
    Yes, absolutely. Go on Opentable. From the trendiest Shoreditch dinery to regularly booked-out stalwarts like the Ivy or Scotts, places that needed booking weeks ahead can now be booked tomorrow, and not at 3pm either
    Very, very good to know. Thanks. I can see that I can book The Ivy tomorrow at 2100 or at any time next Friday or Saturday. That is indeed extraordinary. I could even reserve Sexy Fish at 2000 on a Friday next month, which is bonkers.

    You are right.

    Thanks for the tip.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1312125567890718720?s=19

    At this point if Biden doesn't get it then I'm on board the covid poisoned Mic theory.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,957

    MrEd said:

    How many "changes everything" have we had with Trump?
    Nobody is talking about his taxes now....not that i thought Trump was going to win, but the big issue he has now is he can't do his rallies which in 2016 created such a large amount of coverage and often outside of the main national media.

    Because of COVID restricting crowds and this time he hasn't found a lock her up / build the wall type slogan, I dont think they were building much momentum anyway, but this definitely stops any of it.
    From the evidence thus far, he can't even tweet.
    That, and pumping him full of magic serum does not augur well for a "mild" case.
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    dixiedean said:

    @TSE @Philip_Thompson .
    Sadio Mane tests positive.

    Fucking hell.

    He's the key player for this team.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I've just discovered something interesting:

    If Kelly wins the Arizona Senate race, then - because it is a Special election - he will be seated immediately.

    This means that, for the purposes of the lame duck session, the composition of the Senate is more likely to be 52-48 than 53-47.

    This may be one of the reasons why the Republicans are keen to get the Supreme Court nomination sorted before the election.

    Isn’t there another special election happening, albeit a likely GOP win? I forget which state though.
    It’s Georgia.
    Yes, but the eventual winner will not be seated early.
    I think we discussed this a few days ago.
    My bad.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208

    dixiedean said:

    @TSE @Philip_Thompson .
    Sadio Mane tests positive.

    Will the last few remaining footballers who haven't had covid please report to the front desk so we can complete herd immunity.
    Will the last few remaining footballers students who haven't had covid please report to the front desk so we can complete herd immunity.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Foxy said:

    The men in grey suits will be coming to have a word with Boris next year. If there is one thing the Tories are good at, it is removing crap leaders / leaders who have served their purpose.

    It took two years to get shot of the "dead woman walking".
    Indeed so, although all that proves is they can be crap at removing a leader, one who essentially had no control in parliament for quite some time given how tied in to Brexit everything was, and still pick the right moment to make a change and win big. By contrast Labour never managed it at all, and while Keir seems to be doing a pretty good job, so far from an election there's no telling yet whether they picked the right moment to make a move (waiting for an election to do the dirty work for them).
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    @LadyG what's your favourite place to eat? Presumably somewhere that serves imaginary food
  • Options

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1312132078658494464

    Aha, I will believe that when I see that BoJo.

    Your party won't do anything to actually help young people as that would tank house prices, still COVID might do that anyway

    You still don't get that the Tories are the party that tries to help the young get on the housing ladder do you?

    The party have already done more to help the young get onto the housing ladder in the past decade than New Labour did in 13 years. Of course having had 13 years of Labour malfeasance to reverse and two major economic crises to tackle means the job isn't done yet, but its getting better or was pre-COVID.
    How many years do you think you can stretch this "it's all Labour's fault" line out for?
    How about 20 years after Labour have stopped blaming things on Thatcher ?
This discussion has been closed.