The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.
Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
Viewcode?
The reason why I don't post on PB much these days is due to several reasons, the latest and most stringest of which is my new employer's social media policy - "no politics, no financial advice, be kind" which kills me dead. This is why "Chronicle of a bet foretold" parts 3,4 and 5 are now unlikely to appear. If I publish anything on PB it would have to go thru Compliance, my boss, and my boss's boss (really) none of whom have a reputation for humour. Consequently I can confirm that the article above was not written by me in any sense.
What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.
Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?
The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
That is just their loss.
Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.
Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.
Those consumers need jobs.
Do they need jobs which need to be protected by a tariff?
The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
You really are a troll
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.
Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
Viewcode?
The reason why I don't post on PB much these days is due to several reasons, the latest and most stringest of which is my new employer's social media policy - "no politics, no financial advice, be kind" which kills me dead. This is why "Chronicle of a bet foretold" parts 3,4 and 5 are now unlikely to appear. If I publish anything on PB it would have to go thru Compliance, my boss, and my boss's boss (really) none of whom have a reputation for humour. Consequently I can confirm that the article above was not written by me in any sense.
That sounds utter tosh so I was clearly right. ☺
Didn't the Guardian get a robot to write an article the other day?
The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
You really are a troll
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
I'm not a troll. I'm not even saying you're incorrect. I don't know for sure, but my point is that you probably don't know for sure either, and pretending to be backed up by mysterious mystery sources is not helpful.
There's no point saying that "TPP" (which doesn't even exist anymore by the way), has greater potential for growth than the Single Market, because obviously it does, as we trade much less with those countries than the EU at present.
My point was, is it going to be more beneficial to us than the status quo? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm pretty sure almost everybody here doesn't know the answer to that either.
And if you don't know, there's no way of being sure that it's "definitely" what the Government should be aiming for.
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
Absolutely they're not.
Membership of TPP and a trade deal with the EU would be a proper "cake and eat it" scenario.
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.
Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?
The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
That is just their loss.
Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.
Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.
Those consumers need jobs.
Do they need jobs which need to be protected by a tariff?
Think about it for a moment... There's no reason for other countries not to slap huge tariffs on our goods. The could do that to protect their own industries, or simply to teach us a lesson.
Then how are we going to export anything? How are we going to pay for all those tariff-free imports?
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.
Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?
The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
That is just their loss.
Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.
Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.
Those consumers need jobs.
Do they need jobs which need to be protected by a tariff?
Think about it for a moment... There's no reason for other countries not to slap huge tariffs on our goods. The could do that to protect their own industries, or simply to teach us a lesson.
Then how are we going to export anything? How are we going to pay for all those tariff-free imports?
They would need to do that with everyone they don't have a trade deal with. They couldn't just target us.
The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
You really are a troll
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
I'm not a troll. I'm not even saying you're incorrect. I don't know for sure, but my point is that you probably don't know for sure either, and pretending to be backed up by mysterious mystery sources is not helpful.
There's no point saying that "TPP" (which doesn't even exist anymore by the way), has greater potential for growth than the Single Market, because obviously it does, as we trade much less with those countries than the EU at present.
My point was, is it going to be more beneficial to us than the status quo? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm pretty sure almost everybody here doesn't know the answer to that either.
And if you don't know, there's no way of being sure that it's "definitely" what the Government should be aiming for.
I did not finish my piece but you annoyed me when you said I was making it up
I am not nor am I making up the reports across the globe that the future lies in the TPP
As has been said the future for the UK is in the TPP and trading with the EU
What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.
Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?
The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
That is just their loss.
Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.
Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.
Those consumers need jobs.
Do they need jobs which need to be protected by a tariff?
Think about it for a moment... There's no reason for other countries not to slap huge tariffs on our goods. The could do that to protect their own industries, or simply to teach us a lesson.
Then how are we going to export anything? How are we going to pay for all those tariff-free imports?
They would need to do that with everyone they don't have a trade deal with. They couldn't just target us.
Yes they could. International law is just guidelines remember?
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
This assumes strict party-line voting. Which MIGHT happen but which is NOT inevitable.
For example, some members COULD decide to vote the way their district voted. OR to abstain, for variety of reasons.
BTW, check out history of the two presidential elections actually decided by the House of Reps: > 1800 (Jefferson vs Burr) > 1824 (Adams vs Jackson vs Crawford)
Also note there have been many other presidential elections where politicos of one stripe or another strategized about throwing the election into the House of Reps.
Notable examples include Southern segregationist supporters of Harry Byrd (1960) and George wallace (1968).
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
Your tone in this is unecessary
It is not 'guff' and it is the future alongside trading with the EU
The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
You really are a troll
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
I'm not a troll. I'm not even saying you're incorrect. I don't know for sure, but my point is that you probably don't know for sure either, and pretending to be backed up by mysterious mystery sources is not helpful.
There's no point saying that "TPP" (which doesn't even exist anymore by the way), has greater potential for growth than the Single Market, because obviously it does, as we trade much less with those countries than the EU at present.
My point was, is it going to be more beneficial to us than the status quo? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm pretty sure almost everybody here doesn't know the answer to that either.
And if you don't know, there's no way of being sure that it's "definitely" what the Government should be aiming for.
I did not finish my piece but you annoyed me when you said I was making it up
I am not nor am I making up the reports across the globe that the future lies in the TPP
As has been said the future for the UK is in the TPP and trading with the EU
I always try to post honestly and not fictitious
Growth is not the same thing as benefit though. There is undoubtedly loads of growth amongst these countries, but that does not mean that for the UK it will be better for us than our current membership of the Single Market. It might be, but the government hasn't even done a GDP projection so what are we supposed to go on?
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
Absolutely they're not.
Membership of TPP and a trade deal with the EU would be a proper "cake and eat it" scenario.
If the United States rejoins TPP as Biden has said he might, Pelosi's threat becomes much less relevant. Hopefully we will do a deal with the EU as well, whether now or in a few years when tempers have cooled. Then the Government will have 80% of our trade under FTAs and we can move on.
The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
You really are a troll
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
I'm not a troll. I'm not even saying you're incorrect. I don't know for sure, but my point is that you probably don't know for sure either, and pretending to be backed up by mysterious mystery sources is not helpful.
There's no point saying that "TPP" (which doesn't even exist anymore by the way), has greater potential for growth than the Single Market, because obviously it does, as we trade much less with those countries than the EU at present.
My point was, is it going to be more beneficial to us than the status quo? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm pretty sure almost everybody here doesn't know the answer to that either.
And if you don't know, there's no way of being sure that it's "definitely" what the Government should be aiming for.
I did not finish my piece but you annoyed me when you said I was making it up
I am not nor am I making up the reports across the globe that the future lies in the TPP
As has been said the future for the UK is in the TPP and trading with the EU
I always try to post honestly and not fictitious
'Even Joe Biden, the former vice president and the Democrat seen by many as having the best chance to defeat Trump in the 2020 election, said he would not have the U.S. rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal as it stands now, a step away from the centerpiece of Obama's strategy in Asia.' https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/US-Democrats-abandon-Obama-s-embrace-of-TPP
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
I fear this is the final straw for Boris's admirers to grasp at, now it looks like he's totally ballsed up potential trade deals with the EU and US. (The clue is that TPP never even entered their imaginations until this week.)
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
Global growth for the next 20 years is going to be in that part of the world, not Europe.
What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.
Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?
The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
That is just their loss.
Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.
Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.
Those consumers need jobs.
Do they need jobs which need to be protected by a tariff?
Think about it for a moment... There's no reason for other countries not to slap huge tariffs on our goods. The could do that to protect their own industries, or simply to teach us a lesson.
Then how are we going to export anything? How are we going to pay for all those tariff-free imports?
A floating exchange rate can correct an imbalance in our balance of payments. That works automatically without any need for policy adjustment.
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
Your tone in this is unecessary
It is not 'guff' and it is the future alongside trading with the EU
It is guff because it's just dancing around the question. It's a classic "politician" answer.
I asked a specific question on what evidence is there that membership of the TPP would be better for the UK than membership of the Single Market. I got no evidence in response, just Philip's incredibly biased opinion.
What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.
Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?
The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
That is just their loss.
Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.
Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.
Those consumers need jobs.
Do they need jobs which need to be protected by a tariff?
Think about it for a moment... There's no reason for other countries not to slap huge tariffs on our goods. The could do that to protect their own industries, or simply to teach us a lesson.
Then how are we going to export anything? How are we going to pay for all those tariff-free imports?
They would need to do that with everyone they don't have a trade deal with. They couldn't just target us.
Good point - I'll give you that one. But it still means, as pointed out elsewhere, that there'd be zero incentive for any other country to negotiate a trade deal with us. And our exports would be disadvantaged relative to our competitors.
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
Global growth for the next 20 years is going to be in that part of the world, not Europe.
That doesn't answer the question. I'm not asking about growth. Growth is not the same as benefit to the UK.
I repeat: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
Growth potential is not the same as better. Trade with North Korea has massive growth potential (from a near zero base) but that doesn't mean it's of any real benefit to the UK.
The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market. The EU want access to "our" fish. The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".
What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?
Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.
And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.
Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
It absolutely does.
The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.
The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
There you are, whinging and whining again. That's all your childish ranting is.
"Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".
It's really rather funny to watch.
I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.
If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
You are constantly whinging. Every day.
"They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram* "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram* "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*
It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.
Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his
Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.
Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.
Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.
Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.
USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.
For China we'd need to sell our soul.
"Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
Joining the TPA would be a big moment
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
That is not the case
The future lies in full participation in the TPP
Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
The TPP is the future the EU the past
"TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?
On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?
If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
Which commentators?
Scores of business reviews from various sources
Which business reviews? Which sources?
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
You really are a troll
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
I'm not a troll. I'm not even saying you're incorrect. I don't know for sure, but my point is that you probably don't know for sure either, and pretending to be backed up by mysterious mystery sources is not helpful.
There's no point saying that "TPP" (which doesn't even exist anymore by the way), has greater potential for growth than the Single Market, because obviously it does, as we trade much less with those countries than the EU at present.
My point was, is it going to be more beneficial to us than the status quo? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm pretty sure almost everybody here doesn't know the answer to that either.
And if you don't know, there's no way of being sure that it's "definitely" what the Government should be aiming for.
I did not finish my piece but you annoyed me when you said I was making it up
I am not nor am I making up the reports across the globe that the future lies in the TPP
As has been said the future for the UK is in the TPP and trading with the EU
I always try to post honestly and not fictitious
Growth is not the same thing as benefit though. There is undoubtedly loads of growth amongst these countries, but that does not mean that for the UK it will be better for us than our current membership of the Single Market. It might be, but the government hasn't even done a GDP projection so what are we supposed to go on?
I do not have a problem with your arguments just your tone and in particular saying I am making things up and Philip's explanation is 'guff'
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
One possibility that hasn't really been talked about much here is a clean sweep by the GOP of both Houses and the Presidency. If Trump is re-elected, there is a good chance that happens. In which case, a UK-US trade deal becomes more likely.
And another thing: if Boris and his Merry Men managed to screw up our trading relations with the EU (of which we were one of the most significant members for decades) and the US (supposedly our biggest ally), why do his admirers think we'd succeed with a group of former colonies half way around the world? The whole notion is laughable.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
The inconsistencies and creative improvisations in Brexit are fascinating, this current fascination with TPP is they latest example of them making this shit up as they go. Wonder where they will want to take us next week. I expect next week the future for Britain lies in an Artic, Antarctic alliance where we trade penguins for polar bears.
Basically anything to distract from the geographic and economic realities that we are part of Europe even if we’re out of the EU.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under the bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA and build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
And i have been made aware of an outbreak (unknown size) on a uni campus.
I'm concerned about University outbreaks in the next few weeks. I don't think face-to-face teaching is going to last very long into the academic year...
Do post if you hear anything, as I'm trying to keep an eye on my own risk.
Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.
Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
Viewcode?
The reason why I don't post on PB much these days is due to several reasons, the latest and most stringest of which is my new employer's social media policy - "no politics, no financial advice, be kind" which kills me dead. This is why "Chronicle of a bet foretold" parts 3,4 and 5 are now unlikely to appear. If I publish anything on PB it would have to go thru Compliance, my boss, and my boss's boss (really) none of whom have a reputation for humour. Consequently I can confirm that the article above was not written by me in any sense.
That sounds utter tosh so I was clearly right. ☺
Didn't the Guardian get a robot to write an article the other day?
A human editor stitched together an article from 8 barely coherent splurges of words an AI genreated.
And i have been made aware of an outbreak (unknown size) on a uni campus.
I'm concerned about University outbreaks in the next few weeks. I don't think face-to-face teaching is going to last very long into the academic year...
Do post if you hear anything, as I'm trying to keep an eye on my own risk.
--AS
My first week is full of "pre-recorded lectures". For £12,000 I don't even get many "live" lectures. Fantastic.
The inconsistencies and creative improvisations in Brexit are fascinating, this current fascination with TPP is they latest example of them making this shit up as they go. Wonder where they will want to take us next week. I expect next week the future for Britain lies in an Artic, Antarctic alliance where we trade penguins for polar bears.
Basically anything to distract from the geographic and economic realities that we are part of Europe even if we’re out of the EU.
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
The inconsistencies and creative improvisations in Brexit are fascinating, this current fascination with TPP is they latest example of them making this shit up as they go. Wonder where they will want to take us next week. I expect next week the future for Britain lies in an Artic, Antarctic alliance where we trade penguins for polar bears.
Basically anything to distract from the geographic and economic realities that we are part of Europe even if we’re out of the EU.
There is life on Venus
Lets send Raab to Venus to strike a deal. Surely this is something we can all agree on.
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
I'm just not convinced the pollsters have got this right.
And another thing: if Boris and his Merry Men managed to screw up our trading relations with the EU (of which we were one of the most significant members for decades) and the US (supposedly our biggest ally), why do his admirers think we'd succeed with a group of former colonies half way around the world? The whole notion is laughable.
You do know the countries negotiating the TPP are Japan, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, Brunei Darussalam and the US
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
Global growth for the next 20 years is going to be in that part of the world, not Europe.
That doesn't answer the question. I'm not asking about growth. Growth is not the same as benefit to the UK.
I repeat: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
Growth potential is not the same as better. Trade with North Korea has massive growth potential (from a near zero base) but that doesn't mean it's of any real benefit to the UK.
The TPP isn't North Korea, though. It is a huge trading bloc that is non-exclusive. If you can't see why there are long term benefits of being part of a group that has double the growth rate of our current group then there's really no hope.
Off-topic. Saw a strange flag today flying by the side of the A303 between Ilminster and Honiton. Best description I can give is:
Red flag with black three-pointed symbol in a white circle at the centre. The black symbol looked a bit like you'd imagine a three-legged starfish would look.
The flag looked vaguely fascistic (if that's a word).
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
He did no such thing. All he said was that "Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the [Good Friday] Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border." Which is categorically not the same as saying that any trade deal is contingent upon not passing the IM Bill and respecting the NI Protocol in the WA.
As I said this morning if the UK were to leave on New Year's Day without a deal, Biden were to get inaugurated in January and were to then successfully help encourage/negotiate a compromise between the UK and the EU then that would respect the Good Friday Agreement and preent the returnof a hard border. His condition will be met.
And i have been made aware of an outbreak (unknown size) on a uni campus.
I'm concerned about University outbreaks in the next few weeks. I don't think face-to-face teaching is going to last very long into the academic year...
Do post if you hear anything, as I'm trying to keep an eye on my own risk.
--AS
My first week is full of "pre-recorded lectures". For £12,000 I don't even get many "live" lectures. Fantastic.
My sympathies. There's no doubt that distance learning is inferior to the real thing.
(I will say, though, that recorded lectures are an absolute bugger to create, if they are done properly. So my sympathies are also with your lecturers!)
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
Just been having another gander at the Wisconsin polls.
In 2018 the polling was patchy and poor. Big overstatement of the Dem candidate - he did win but only by 1.2 when there was polling giving him +5 and +10 leads out there.
The one exception is the Wisconsin Gold Standard - Marquette - who are a Wisconsin specialist. They had the race a tie.
In the spirit of cherry picking your polling providers their current Wisconsin polling is Biden +7
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
And whose fault that we find ourselves reliant for our trading future on the voters of a foreign power? That's some sovereignty we took back.
Off-topic. Saw a strange flag today flying by the side of the A303 between Ilminster and Honiton. Best description I can give is:
Red flag with black three-pointed symbol in a white circle at the centre. The black symbol looked a bit like you'd imagine a three-legged starfish would look.
The flag looked vaguely fascistic (if that's a word).
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
I gave you evidence.
Its not certainty, but there is no certainty either way only speculation.
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
I gave you evidence.
Its not certainty, but there is no certainty either way only speculation.
Your idea of what is "evidence" is very different to mine, which explains a hell of a lot.
And another thing: if Boris and his Merry Men managed to screw up our trading relations with the EU (of which we were one of the most significant members for decades) and the US (supposedly our biggest ally), why do his admirers think we'd succeed with a group of former colonies half way around the world? The whole notion is laughable.
You do know the countries negotiating the TPP are Japan, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, Brunei Darussalam and the US
Group of former colonies, really
'A field of flowers' doesn't imply that there are only flowers in it. There could also be grass, insects and the odd tree.
And i have been made aware of an outbreak (unknown size) on a uni campus.
I'm concerned about University outbreaks in the next few weeks. I don't think face-to-face teaching is going to last very long into the academic year...
Do post if you hear anything, as I'm trying to keep an eye on my own risk.
--AS
My eldest had first lecture today. They will go in once a week. Unfortunately that was for a 3 hour lecture in the same room...
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
Global growth for the next 20 years is going to be in that part of the world, not Europe.
That doesn't answer the question. I'm not asking about growth. Growth is not the same as benefit to the UK.
I repeat: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
Growth potential is not the same as better. Trade with North Korea has massive growth potential (from a near zero base) but that doesn't mean it's of any real benefit to the UK.
It depends a lot on how the CPTPP operates and expands in the future. According to the Commission's modelling, the gain to GDP from the single market is around 2.0% of GDP. Against that we need to set the cost of our net contributions, which are 0.4-0.6% of GDP, and the cost of complying with Single Market regulations and which we don't need to replicate, which is extremely difficult to estimate, but which could be 1-2% of GDP over the long term (some have estimated it at 5% but this seems much too large).
The gains from CPTPP would probably be smaller, particularly given our impending free trade deals with Japan, Australia and Canada, unless America joined. However, it would come without the net contributions and the heavy costs of EU regulation.
Overall, then, as usual with economic modelling, you can get whatever result you want by tweaking the assumptions.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
Biden would oppose ANY trade deal with UK only IF it screws over the Good Friday Agreement.
As for Trumpsky, don't count on him to be BoJo's lapdog - he'd sell out his Brit Mini Me quick as a whip-stitch. Of course he'd extend the same favor to his own momma. But still.
As for Reps winning back the US House, seems a dim prospect. UNLESS of course Rasmussen & Trafalgar are the Gold Standard - then all things GOP-wise are possible!
And another thing: if Boris and his Merry Men managed to screw up our trading relations with the EU (of which we were one of the most significant members for decades) and the US (supposedly our biggest ally), why do his admirers think we'd succeed with a group of former colonies half way around the world? The whole notion is laughable.
You do know the countries negotiating the TPP are Japan, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, Brunei Darussalam and the US
Group of former colonies, really
All bar Japan are former colonies to be fair, and 7 of them are former British colonies.
None of which will help our cause one iota, of course.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
Entirely possible. However, as the Time article pointed out re Michigan, if you drove around the state, the only thing that would you make you think Biden has a chance would be the opinion polls. Everywhere around were Trump posters, flags etc.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
He did no such thing. All he said was that "Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the [Good Friday] Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border." Which is categorically not the same as saying that any trade deal is contingent upon not passing the IM Bill and respecting the NI Protocol in the WA.
As I said this morning if the UK were to leave on New Year's Day without a deal, Biden were to get inaugurated in January and were to then successfully help encourage/negotiate a compromise between the UK and the EU then that would respect the Good Friday Agreement and preent the returnof a hard border. His condition will be met.
And why did he say that? As the Democrats do not feel the IM Bill respects the GFA and NI Protocol, wrongly in my opinion but that is their view.
If Biden is elected and we are at No Deal he and the EU will tell Boris and the UK to sod off unless and until we either join the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea. There will then be tariffs between GB and the EU and no prospect of tariff free access to the US market to replace it.
Face it Philip, you can have a successful hard Brexit or you can have President Biden, you cannot have both
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
Nobody in a sane mind wants Trump to win
Farage and increasingly more and more Leavers do
We know you want Trump to win and of course you should have been in UKIP all along
Off-topic. Saw a strange flag today flying by the side of the A303 between Ilminster and Honiton. Best description I can give is:
Red flag with black three-pointed symbol in a white circle at the centre. The black symbol looked a bit like you'd imagine a three-legged starfish would look.
The flag looked vaguely fascistic (if that's a word).
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
I'm just not convinced the pollsters have got this right.
Hope I'm very wrong.
I am with you re the pollsters. My feel is where the two areas where there is probably greatest discrepancy is (1) Black voters and (2) white suburban ones.
Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
That's where global growth is going to be and giving UK companies unrestricted access to those markets is a huge positive. Though as I said, they are not mutually exclusive goals.
But that's not what I asked. I asked on what evidence are you suggesting that we as a country will be better off in the "TPP" than in the Single Market?
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
TPP is shorthand for CPTPP.
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
All guff that doesn't answer the question.
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
I gave you evidence.
Its not certainty, but there is no certainty either way only speculation.
Your idea of what is "evidence" is very different to mine, which explains a hell of a lot.
You don't find the fact that CPTPP GDP would be more than EU GDP - and consistently growing much faster too - is remotely relevant as evidence? That's interesting.
You don't find the fact that CPTPP membership would come at a cost to the taxpayer billions less than the EU costs, billions that can be paid to the NHS or any other priority you have, remotely relevant as evidence? That's interesting.
You don't find the fact that CPTPP membership is compatible with an FTA with the EU, whereas the reverse isn't true remotely relevant as evidence? That's interesting.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
Biden would oppose ANY trade deal with UK only IF it screws over the Good Friday Agreement.
As for Trumpsky, don't count on him to be BoJo's lapdog - he'd sell out his Brit Mini Me quick as a whip-stitch. Of course he'd extend the same favor to his own momma. But still.
As for Reps winning back the US House, seems a dim prospect. UNLESS of course Rasmussen & Trafalgar are the Gold Standard - then all things GOP-wise are possible!
In 2016 Rasmussen were the gold standard for the national popular vote, Trafalgar were the gold standard for Michigan and Pennsylvania which won Trump the election, so all things certainly are still possible
Perhaps Dido should be allowed more time for being a jockey?
Dido Harding was an absolute joke when she was CEO of TalkTalk. And I say that as someone who worked in the City and looked at TalkTalk (ok, ok, that means jack....)
Perhaps Dido should be allowed more time for being a jockey?
Dido Harding was an absolute joke when she was CEO of TalkTalk. And I say that as someone who worked in the City and looked at TalkTalk (ok, ok, that means jack....)
She'll fit right in then at Johnson's clown car emporium.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
In a strange way I think you are trying to boost Trump by that statement which of course is true
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
Biden will throw the UK under a bus and move to a deal with the EU, unless we rejoin the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea a Biden administration will not give Boris the time of day.
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
Nobody in a sane mind wants Trump to win
Farage and increasingly more and more Leavers do
Yes, as Big G said, nobody of a sane mind wants Trump to win.
Just been having another gander at the Wisconsin polls.
In 2018 the polling was patchy and poor. Big overstatement of the Dem candidate - he did win but only by 1.2 when there was polling giving him +5 and +10 leads out there.
The one exception is the Wisconsin Gold Standard - Marquette - who are a Wisconsin specialist. They had the race a tie.
In the spirit of cherry picking your polling providers their current Wisconsin polling is Biden +7
Is that right? On RCP, it has Marquette's last poll as having Biden as +4.
Off-topic. Saw a strange flag today flying by the side of the A303 between Ilminster and Honiton. Best description I can give is:
Red flag with black three-pointed symbol in a white circle at the centre. The black symbol looked a bit like you'd imagine a three-legged starfish would look.
The flag looked vaguely fascistic (if that's a word).
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
Entirely possible. However, as the Time article pointed out re Michigan, if you drove around the state, the only thing that would you make you think Biden has a chance would be the opinion polls. Everywhere around were Trump posters, flags etc.
Opinion polls are not infallable.
Nor is your spelling, if I may politely point this out.
As if any further sign was needed a US UK FTA is dead in the water with a Biden presidency the man has now confirmed it himself
He did no such thing. All he said was that "Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the [Good Friday] Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border." Which is categorically not the same as saying that any trade deal is contingent upon not passing the IM Bill and respecting the NI Protocol in the WA.
As I said this morning if the UK were to leave on New Year's Day without a deal, Biden were to get inaugurated in January and were to then successfully help encourage/negotiate a compromise between the UK and the EU then that would respect the Good Friday Agreement and preent the returnof a hard border. His condition will be met.
And why did he say that? As the Democrats do not feel the IM Bill respects the GFA and NI Protocol, wrongly in my opinion but that is their view.
If Biden is elected and we are at No Deal he and the EU will tell Boris and the UK to sod off unless and until we either join the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea. There will then be tariffs between GB and the EU and no prospect of tariff free access to the US market to replace it.
Face it Philip, you can have a successful hard Brexit or you can have President Biden, you cannot have both
Bullshit.
This is your pro-Trump "I don't support Trump but here's grasping at straw reasons why Trump is going to win, now here's a Trafalgar poll" mania.
A hard Brexit can be successful with or without a US deal. There is absolutely no need for a deal for Brexit to be successful.
And its not a case of EEA or border in the Irish Sea. Any alternative arrangement compromise solution would respect the GFA and prevent a hard border in Ireland.
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
Entirely possible. However, as the Time article pointed out re Michigan, if you drove around the state, the only thing that would you make you think Biden has a chance would be the opinion polls. Everywhere around were Trump posters, flags etc.
Opinion polls are not infallable.
Nor is your spelling, if I may politely point this out.
You may indeed. I make mistakes.
However, my spelling and grammar is of far less importance than the general point that was making re the opinion polls.
So a region poorer than any in the former East Germany, with an economy on the precipice is going into a second lockdown. Forgive me for not giving a monkeys about your Brexit delusions. And being a little despondent.
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
Entirely possible. However, as the Time article pointed out re Michigan, if you drove around the state, the only thing that would you make you think Biden has a chance would be the opinion polls. Everywhere around were Trump posters, flags etc.
Opinion polls are not infallable.
Nor is your spelling, if I may politely point this out.
You may indeed. I make mistakes.
However, my spelling and grammar is of far less importance than the general point that was making re the opinion polls.
Shouldn't the abundance of Trump posters and flags etc make you stop and consider that maybe, just maybe shy Trumpers won't be a thing so the polls are more likely to be accurate?
Comments
Let's face it Big G, you're just making this stuff up.
Of course only a short piece, not a novella or more. But even so.
My interests have been in Australia, New Zealand and Canada since my eldest emigrated to NZ in 2003 and now lives in Canada
He was involved in international trade negotiations and trading and is unequivocal that the TPP is where the future growth if trade is owrgo
Re: Vlad the Poisoner P_T may be an unwitting dupe - but NEVER a witting one.
That may be a close to a compliment you're likely to get on here, P_T - leastways today!
Also for the record - I posted this BEFORE noticing that Phil "liked" one of my recent pontifications!
There's no point saying that "TPP" (which doesn't even exist anymore by the way), has greater potential for growth than the Single Market, because obviously it does, as we trade much less with those countries than the EU at present.
My point was, is it going to be more beneficial to us than the status quo? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm pretty sure almost everybody here doesn't know the answer to that either.
And if you don't know, there's no way of being sure that it's "definitely" what the Government should be aiming for.
Membership of TPP and a trade deal with the EU would be a proper "cake and eat it" scenario.
The evidence is not there, objectively. It's all just guessing and politics.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1306317244444540928
Then how are we going to export anything? How are we going to pay for all those tariff-free imports?
If the UK joined the TPP then that bloc would have a greater share of the world economy than the EU does. It also is much less restrictive than the EU politically, billions cheaper for membership fees, isn't exclusive with trade deals (so we can sign a deal with the EU too). The countries making up the TPP are and have for decades been growing faster than the declining EU nations. If you compare the same nations like for like in 1993 then Europe would have been much richer but not anymore.
And that's before considering the potential that the USA post Trump may seek to join it.
I am not nor am I making up the reports across the globe that the future lies in the TPP
As has been said the future for the UK is in the TPP and trading with the EU
I always try to post honestly and not fictitious
The question is: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
I'm talking about GDP. I'm talking about jobs. I'm talking about standard of living.
I'll wait.
For example, some members COULD decide to vote the way their district voted. OR to abstain, for variety of reasons.
BTW, check out history of the two presidential elections actually decided by the House of Reps:
> 1800 (Jefferson vs Burr)
> 1824 (Adams vs Jackson vs Crawford)
Also note there have been many other presidential elections where politicos of one stripe or another strategized about throwing the election into the House of Reps.
Notable examples include Southern segregationist supporters of Harry Byrd (1960) and George wallace (1968).
It is not 'guff' and it is the future alongside trading with the EU
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/US-Democrats-abandon-Obama-s-embrace-of-TPP
I asked a specific question on what evidence is there that membership of the TPP would be better for the UK than membership of the Single Market. I got no evidence in response, just Philip's incredibly biased opinion.
However, I do not want another day with Trump as POTUS and I believe Biden will be good for everyone
I repeat: what evidence is there that being part of the CPTPP will be better for the UK than our current membership of the Single Market?
Growth potential is not the same as better. Trade with North Korea has massive growth potential (from a near zero base) but that doesn't mean it's of any real benefit to the UK.
You can find out who liked your post?
Now Biden might be good for a future PM Starmer's prospects but Boris desperately needs Trump to win now (and ideally the GOP to retake the House as well) to preserve a successful Brexit and the chance of a US FTA to replace the EU free market access we are about to lose
Basically anything to distract from the geographic and economic realities that we are part of Europe even if we’re out of the EU.
Do post if you hear anything, as I'm trying to keep an eye on my own risk.
--AS
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
I'm about to be locked down.
Last time they had the decency to let the PM do it.
This time locked down by JENRICK!!
Crumbs.
Hope I'm very wrong.
Group of former colonies, really
Red flag with black three-pointed symbol in a white circle at the centre. The black symbol looked a bit like you'd imagine a three-legged starfish would look.
The flag looked vaguely fascistic (if that's a word).
Any ideas what it represents?
As I said this morning if the UK were to leave on New Year's Day without a deal, Biden were to get inaugurated in January and were to then successfully help encourage/negotiate a compromise between the UK and the EU then that would respect the Good Friday Agreement and preent the returnof a hard border. His condition will be met.
(I will say, though, that recorded lectures are an absolute bugger to create, if they are done properly. So my sympathies are also with your lecturers!)
--AS
In 2018 the polling was patchy and poor. Big overstatement of the Dem candidate - he did win but only by 1.2 when there was polling giving him +5 and +10 leads out there.
The one exception is the Wisconsin Gold Standard - Marquette - who are a Wisconsin specialist. They had the race a tie.
In the spirit of cherry picking your polling providers their current Wisconsin polling is Biden +7
That's some sovereignty we took back.
Its not certainty, but there is no certainty either way only speculation.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1306339990616649733?s=19
Unfortunately that was for a 3 hour lecture in the same room...
The gains from CPTPP would probably be smaller, particularly given our impending free trade deals with Japan, Australia and Canada, unless America joined. However, it would come without the net contributions and the heavy costs of EU regulation.
Overall, then, as usual with economic modelling, you can get whatever result you want by tweaking the assumptions.
As for Trumpsky, don't count on him to be BoJo's lapdog - he'd sell out his Brit Mini Me quick as a whip-stitch. Of course he'd extend the same favor to his own momma. But still.
As for Reps winning back the US House, seems a dim prospect. UNLESS of course Rasmussen & Trafalgar are the Gold Standard - then all things GOP-wise are possible!
None of which will help our cause one iota, of course.
Edit. That tried to autofill to without a pointer sister!
Opinion polls are not infallable.
If Biden is elected and we are at No Deal he and the EU will tell Boris and the UK to sod off unless and until we either join the EEA or build a border in the Irish Sea. There will then be tariffs between GB and the EU and no prospect of tariff free access to the US market to replace it.
Face it Philip, you can have a successful hard Brexit or you can have President Biden, you cannot have both
Adam Smith said there is a lot of ruin in a country. We are about to find out.
Meanwhile, in Sweden...
Lovely people, nice to have them over here. The symbol is called a triskelion.
You don't find the fact that CPTPP membership would come at a cost to the taxpayer billions less than the EU costs, billions that can be paid to the NHS or any other priority you have, remotely relevant as evidence? That's interesting.
You don't find the fact that CPTPP membership is compatible with an FTA with the EU, whereas the reverse isn't true remotely relevant as evidence? That's interesting.
What do you consider evidence then?
Something about it made me shudder - exactly the same colour scheme as the Third Reich flag. Can't be anything good.
This is your pro-Trump "I don't support Trump but here's grasping at straw reasons why Trump is going to win, now here's a Trafalgar poll" mania.
A hard Brexit can be successful with or without a US deal. There is absolutely no need for a deal for Brexit to be successful.
And its not a case of EEA or border in the Irish Sea. Any alternative arrangement compromise solution would respect the GFA and prevent a hard border in Ireland.
However, my spelling and grammar is of far less importance than the general point that was making re the opinion polls.
Forgive me for not giving a monkeys about your Brexit delusions.
And being a little despondent.
MAGA types are not shy.