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Leave it to Cummings – politicalbetting.com

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    rpjs said:

    What matters is surely getting this onto statute. If this becomes statute then it is the law.

    If the EU don't want a dispute maybe they should compromise and so not give us a reason to trigger this.
    "Maybe if she didn't keep provoking me I wouldn't hit her."
    The UK government standing up for all it's citizens of the UK and not being exploited by foreign actors acting in bad faith to put divisions between GB and NI is not equivalent to a man beating up a woman.

    The UK governments job is to stand up for its citizens first and foremost.
    That was certainly the PM's view - Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain that is, in September 1938.

    Bojo likes to flaunt his admiration for Winston Churchill, same as his role model Trumpsky. So ironic that both PM and POTUS are bending backwards to help implement Putinist game plan, all the while proclaiming themselves to be anti-appeasers.
    How is Boris appeasing the EU? I think he's doing the opposite.
    Never said he BoJo was appeasing EU - he's appeasing Vald the Poisoner, just like Trumpsky.
    He's doing nothing to appease Russia and Russia isn't the country the threat to us that the EU are right now.

    Russia is the geopolitical equivalent of 4chan losers trying to stir shit online but not actually doing anything outside of their basement.
    Weakening and (if possible) destroying first EU, then NATO, is THE prime directive of Putinism. And both BoJo & Trumpsky are both working overtime to achieve this, whether they realize it or not.

    Just like Neville Chamberlain was working overtime to further the Nazi prime directive. Fact that he was oblivious does NOT exculpate.
    I couldn't give a crap what Russia's directives are. They are a shitty country being ran into the ground by Putin. They have bet everything on oil and gas and Putin is destroying his country as it becomes a failed state.

    Germany in the 30s was an industrialising threat to the world capable of conquering Europe and rapidly producing goods and armaments and invading western Europe.
    Methinks you are seriously under-estimating Putin's Russia, similar to how Hitler AND the West (esp. Chamberlain but NOT Churchill) seriously under-estimated Stalin's Russia.
    You think Putin could invade Western Europe?
    You think the Goths could conquer the Western Roman Empire?
    The Western Roman Empire collapsed due to its own corruption, poor leadership and weaknesses. If you're comparing the EU to that then I will let you have that one.
    That could happen across the West though, regardless of whether we're in the EU our outside of it.

    It's about our willingness to defend ourselves, which includes our values and what we stand for as much as it does our raw physical ability to do so.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited September 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    Certainly sounds like an evil colonial empire to me.
    I said they would likely compromise because we have played our Ace from the cards we hold. If they do then great and well played by Johnson. I'm sure you'll give credit where it's due.
    And if they give a cosmetic concession to allow Johnson to concede on the substance, you'll be smart enough to see through it?
    Remember @Philip_Thompson spent the last 9 months telling us how great the WA was, and how Boris had masterfully avoided a border in the Irish Sea.
    I said that there were special arrangements for NI and if NI voters didn't like those then they could vote to end them, something that was impossible in May's worse deal.

    Legally there is no border which is why we can act like we are, in May's deal we would have legally ceded NI into the EU's Customs Area.
    You spent the last 9 months telling us how great the WA was. That's a matter of historical record.

    Likewise you repeatedly told us that the WA meant "no border in the Irish Sea" which was clearly rubbish, and showed you had no understanding of what the WA actually was.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    Brexit is done,what's left is what will be an endless negotiations of trade deals which we never used to bother about
    It is not concluded by any means
    So something else that BoZo lied about...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    The only way England will get a wicket at this rate is if a batsman treads on his stumps.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited September 2020
    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Viewcode?
    The reason why I don't post on PB much these days is due to several reasons, the latest and most stringest of which is my new employer's social media policy - "no politics, no financial advice, be kind" ...
    That is most unkind of them.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:
    This works both ways: there will be genuine concessions the EU has made that it will want to be seen as "cosmetic", to allow Johnson to claim domestic victory, because that'd help the EU save face over compromises it's made too.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Yes Could be Sunil who is excellent at parodies. Or a David.
  • Options
    Nice to see Brexiteer Shanker Singham in the running for £200mn of our money. Basically he will be paid to help businesses navigate the additional red tape created by the policy he lobbied for.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/16/alternative-to-irish-backstop-consultant-shanker-singham-in-line-for-200m-contract
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Rasmussen got the vote shares completely wrong.

    Yes they got the gap right, but they got the shares wrong.

    To say "Rasmussen called 2016 right" is simply a lie.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Joining TPP? Yes.

    Like I've said before on here before: the EU is old news.

    The West is going to need to form a new pan-global democratic alliance *with the means and moral courage to defend itself* if we're not to, slowly, gradually slip into authoritarianism and barbarism in the decades to come.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    Leaving the single market is a political decision, so was brexit. Economics have been subsidiary to politics some time. The definition of "failing" is similar to beauty, it depends on the beholder.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Rasmussen got the vote shares completely wrong.

    Yes they got the gap right, but they got the shares wrong.

    To say "Rasmussen called 2016 right" is simply a lie.
    I don't think that's fair. US pollsters don't eliminate Don't Knows like ours do, do they?

    There aren't any Don't Know votes so unless you eliminate them you'll never get the shares right.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.
  • Options
    Archers No Ball has cost us the series at this rate it seems.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483


    Data from the Ministry of Health indicate which communities are most affected by infections. The first, Madrid, with 642 infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks. They are followed by Navarra, La Rioja, Castilla-La Mancha, Aragon and the Basque Country. The national average is 256 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. These are data that place Spain at the head of Europe in the rate of infections and that little by little is being noticed in hospitals. Almost nine out of 100 hospital beds are already occupied by COVID patients. In the case of Madrid, there are already one in every five beds. And there is more pressure in the ICUs of some centers.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    No, our standard WTO tariff rates apply. We wouldn't have cause for a trade war unless they tried to blockade Dover or disallowed UK companies from selling into European markets.

    No deal is bad, there is no doubt about it, but the sky won't fall in and the world will keep turning.
  • Options
    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
  • Options

    Archers No Ball has cost us the series at this rate it seems.

    Looking like it
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited September 2020

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Best case scenario is we join the TPP and Biden joins it too.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    Leaving the single market is a political decision, so was brexit. Economics have been subsidiary to politics some time. The definition of "failing" is similar to beauty, it depends on the beholder.
    A federal Europe was designed, geopolitically, for a time where Europe was 30%+ of the world economy and its main rival was the USA - which it wanted to balance up against, as well as defend itself against the USSR. The RoW was an also ran.

    That's out of date. Of course, European nations are small (and declining) so it does need to huddle together and collaborate to a decent extent - but they shouldn't (and can't) form a closed shop if they want Europe to succeed.

    New models for the 21st Century are needed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    Archers No Ball has cost us the series at this rate it seems.

    The great Frank Worrell was, as always, right when he said on the last delivery of the Tied Test: ‘Whatever you do Wes, don’t bowl a no ball.’

    Poor old Archer. First no ball in ODIs and it had to be that one.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Joining TPP? Yes.

    Like I've said before on here before: the EU is old news.

    The West is going to need to form a new pan-global democratic alliance *with the means and moral courage to defend itself* if we're not to, slowly, gradually slip into authoritarianism and barbarism in the decades to come.
    The TPP is an interesting idea to me, it gives us a fairly good shot at a trade deal-lite with the US without having to enter formal talks with them on a direct basis which would be very tough to achieve and would require big concessions in agriculture and healthcare we wouldn't make but he TPP doesn't really have anything objectionable about either of those areas and the combined trading power of the TPP with Britain would be a match for the US should they decide to join under Biden which means collectively we could force the US to accept that their lower agricultural standards aren't going to cut for export grade meat and poultry or that healthcare systems won't be opened up to US insurance companies to destroy.

    I'd actually say that joining the TPP has a fair shot at being economically more beneficial to the UK than staying in the single market, at least in the longer term.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    MaxPB said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    No, our standard WTO tariff rates apply. We wouldn't have cause for a trade war unless they tried to blockade Dover or disallowed UK companies from selling into European markets.

    No deal is bad, there is no doubt about it, but the sky won't fall in and the world will keep turning.
    Are you saying that the WTO would prevent us from abolishing import tariffs?
    Why should we want to "have cause for a trade war"?


  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    Leaving the single market is a political decision, so was brexit. Economics have been subsidiary to politics some time. The definition of "failing" is similar to beauty, it depends on the beholder.
    A federal Europe was designed, geopolitically, for a time where Europe was 30%+ of the world economy and its main rival was the USA - which it wanted to balance up against, as well as defend itself against the USSR. The RoW was an also ran.

    That's out of date. Of course, European nations are small (and declining) so it does need to huddle together and collaborate to a decent extent - but they shouldn't (and can't) form a closed shop if they want Europe to succeed.

    New models for the 21st Century are needed.
    This is the thing die hard Remainers don't understand. Europe is simply of declining significance. It's already a minority of trade and falling. As the RoW continues to grow and as we rebalance our economy post Brexit that trend is only going to escalate.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    No, our standard WTO tariff rates apply. We wouldn't have cause for a trade war unless they tried to blockade Dover or disallowed UK companies from selling into European markets.

    No deal is bad, there is no doubt about it, but the sky won't fall in and the world will keep turning.
    Are you saying that the WTO would prevent us from abolishing import tariffs?
    Why should we want to "have cause for a trade war"?


    It wouldn't but why would we?
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Joining TPP? Yes.

    Like I've said before on here before: the EU is old news.

    The West is going to need to form a new pan-global democratic alliance *with the means and moral courage to defend itself* if we're not to, slowly, gradually slip into authoritarianism and barbarism in the decades to come.
    The TPP is an interesting idea to me, it gives us a fairly good shot at a trade deal-lite with the US without having to enter formal talks with them on a direct basis which would be very tough to achieve and would require big concessions in agriculture and healthcare we wouldn't make but he TPP doesn't really have anything objectionable about either of those areas and the combined trading power of the TPP with Britain would be a match for the US should they decide to join under Biden which means collectively we could force the US to accept that their lower agricultural standards aren't going to cut for export grade meat and poultry or that healthcare systems won't be opened up to US insurance companies to destroy.

    I'd actually say that joining the TPP has a fair shot at being economically more beneficial to the UK than staying in the single market, at least in the longer term.
    Biden win is key and would open the door to a very successful TPP
  • Options
    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    No, our standard WTO tariff rates apply. We wouldn't have cause for a trade war unless they tried to blockade Dover or disallowed UK companies from selling into European markets.

    No deal is bad, there is no doubt about it, but the sky won't fall in and the world will keep turning.
    Are you saying that the WTO would prevent us from abolishing import tariffs?
    Why should we want to "have cause for a trade war"?


    Unless we are in a trade war with the EU under MFN rules we would need to abolish our tariffs with the whole globe.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Fuck me. England take a wicket.

    But late, late, late...
  • Options
    A wicket!

    And a dot ball which could be as important now!
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,366
    edited September 2020
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Yes Could be Sunil who is excellent at parodies. Or a David.
    Absolutely- whoever is responsible deserves a discreet bow. Wodehouse parodies are blooming hard work to do, because his genius was to make pretty much every sentence funny. It's the masterstroke of using Wooster as narrator, but it sets up a lot of work.

    Evidence- Private Eye tried a "Leaves and Booster" parody just over a year ago (happy days...). Brilliant title, but much too much effort for a fortnightly publication.

    Me? I'd be interested to see a Mitchell and Webb update. Robert Webb has somehow become a dotcom billionaire, despite being an idiot. So he hires David Mitchell to run his life for him. Who just about keeps his disdain in check...
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135
    MaxPB said:

    geoffw said:

    MaxPB said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    No, our standard WTO tariff rates apply. We wouldn't have cause for a trade war unless they tried to blockade Dover or disallowed UK companies from selling into European markets.

    No deal is bad, there is no doubt about it, but the sky won't fall in and the world will keep turning.
    Are you saying that the WTO would prevent us from abolishing import tariffs?
    Why should we want to "have cause for a trade war"?


    It wouldn't but why would we?
    Well it maximises consumer welfare for a start.

  • Options
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Just been tucking into an excellent Chapeldown Chardy. Does our our fair isle make any red worthy of mention?

    On TPP: the democratic nations of the world need to wake up fast that our way of life is under mortal threat. If TPP gets us a step closer to that then great. To hear the EU “President” today blather about nation states’ LGBT attitudes is disheartening, when what she should be motivating for is a fuck off massive increase in defence spending and trade sanctions against China.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
    That is just their loss.

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    Surely Australia have this. Inspired captaincy by Morgan tho.
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    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
    That is just their loss.

    Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.

    Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    DavidL said:

    Surely Australia have this. Inspired captaincy by Morgan tho.

    I will be amazed if they cannot get 11 or fewer off the final over with wickets in hand.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    moonshine said:

    Just been tucking into an excellent Chapeldown Chardy. Does our our fair isle make any red worthy of mention?

    On TPP: the democratic nations of the world need to wake up fast that our way of life is under mortal threat. If TPP gets us a step closer to that then great. To hear the EU “President” today blather about nation states’ LGBT attitudes is disheartening, when what she should be motivating for is a fuck off massive increase in defence spending and trade sanctions against China.

    When you look at the weather we have had this year in the south, it must be a stellar year for English vineyards.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Aaargh. Muppet. Wide at this moment.
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    ydoethur said:

    Aaargh. Muppet. Wide at this moment.

    Last thing we need.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Well, whatever the result you can’t say this has been dull. Yet another wicket.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,251
    edited September 2020
    Wow - squeaky bum time
  • Options
    Wicket!!!
  • Options
    10 from an over needed with 2 fresh batsmen and 3 wickets left. Tight.

    Guessing Super Over if they get 9?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Upshot have launched a pollig aggregator with a "what if the polls are as wrong as 2016 & 2012" conparator

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden#what-do-the-polls-say
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited September 2020
    Rashid for the last over.

    Well, that is an interesting choice. Will it be inspired or unfortunate?

    Edit - well, it ain’t looking inspired right now.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,157
    What the actual fuck!? What is he going to advise on: ferry-free ferrying?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109

    10 from an over needed with 2 fresh batsmen and 3 wickets left. Tight.

    Guessing Super Over if they get 9?

    Yes.

    And if that’s tied, another one, and so on until there is a winner.
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    Oh dear
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    Cyclefree said:

    What the actual fuck!? What is he going to advise on: ferry-free ferrying?
    The shareholders are getting that sinking feeling.
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    Damn. 6. Only 4 needed now from 5. That has to have decided it surely.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,734
    Excellent move by Biden .

    Even if a vaccine arrives before the election who do you trust to distribute it effectively and will it be safe. Don’t trust Trump . Good to get ahead on the narrative in case a vaccine does arrive .
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited September 2020
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
    That is just their loss.

    Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.

    Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
    Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited September 2020
    Well, I have to say I think Australia deserved that win. They were the better side.

    But it’s been a fabulous summer of cricket. What a finale.
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    Excellent game.

    Well played Australia
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    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
  • Options
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
    That is just their loss.

    Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.

    Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
    Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.

    A lack of a deal is our loss if our exporters are facing tariffs they could have otherwise avoided.

    Our consumers gain from a lack of tariffs I agree but our exporters being at a disadvantage if that isn't reciprocated isn't good.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,734
    HYUFD said:
    Congress okays trade deals not Pompeo so it’s irrelevant what he says .
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    Not much use when Biden wins
  • Options
    I can't believe Morgan threw it away by bowling Rashid in the last over.

    I need a drink.
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    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    It absolutely can be plus TPP nations are growing and have more potential than the EU. Plus our trade is currently distorted by our lack of a deal with TPP nations and our existing deal with the EU.

    The EU is the past, the RoW is the future.
  • Options
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Congress okays trade deals not Pompeo so it’s irrelevant what he says .
    Indeed. A Biden deal will get through Congress, a Trump one won't.

    Besides it's infeasible there'd be a deal agreed next year anyway. Realistically it'd take years to agree a deal. A Biden Presidency doing the legwork and ratification in 2025 in Harris's first term is more likely than a Trump deal next year.

    And if we can join the TPP and the USA joins too then that is the jackpot.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,929

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Yes Could be Sunil who is excellent at parodies. Or a David.
    Absolutely- whoever is responsible deserves a discreet bow. Wodehouse parodies are blooming hard work to do, because his genius was to make pretty much every sentence funny. It's the masterstroke of using Wooster as narrator, but it sets up a lot of work.

    Evidence- Private Eye tried a "Leaves and Booster" parody just over a year ago (happy days...). Brilliant title, but much too much effort for a fortnightly publication.

    Me? I'd be interested to see a Mitchell and Webb update. Robert Webb has somehow become a dotcom billionaire, despite being an idiot. So he hires David Mitchell to run his life for him. Who just about keeps his disdain in check...
    Yes, Wodehouse’s apparently effortless prose is incredibly difficult to pull off well.

    Charlie Stross (SF author) tried his hand a few years ago & gave up on the grounds that it was simply too much effort for him to maintain the level of quality required: it’s much tougher to write than an ordinary novel. You can find the novella he did write published online entitled “Trunk and Disorderly” - there’s even an audiobook which is also free.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:
    Not much use when Biden wins
    Not according to Rasmussen today

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1306256209075470339?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Congress okays trade deals not Pompeo so it’s irrelevant what he says .
    Not if the Republicans regain the House and hold the Senate which is possible if Trump is re elected
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,135

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
    That is just their loss.

    Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.

    Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
    Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.

    A lack of a deal is our loss if our exporters are facing tariffs they could have otherwise avoided.

    Our consumers gain from a lack of tariffs I agree but our exporters being at a disadvantage if that isn't reciprocated isn't good.
    Well now we come to the point. Tariffs are there to protect uncompetitive industries. Do we want those industries to survive rather than allow consumers the benefit of efficient and low cost products from abroad? If other countries want to protect inefficient industries that is their business and their loss.

  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Congress okays trade deals not Pompeo so it’s irrelevant what he says .
    Not if the Republicans regain the House and hold the Senate which is possible if Trump is re elected
    If
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited September 2020

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Congress okays trade deals not Pompeo so it’s irrelevant what he says .
    Indeed. A Biden deal will get through Congress, a Trump one won't.

    Besides it's infeasible there'd be a deal agreed next year anyway. Realistically it'd take years to agree a deal. A Biden Presidency doing the legwork and ratification in 2025 in Harris's first term is more likely than a Trump deal next year.

    And if we can join the TPP and the USA joins too then that is the jackpot.
    Pelosi will of course rip up any FTA proposals on day 1 and Biden-Harris would also refuse to negotiate with the UK once the internal market bill is passed. So any US and UK trade deal is dead in the water if the Democrats win.

    Even if we joined the TPP that would not make up for the fact the EU and US combined are the destination for well over half UK exports and if we end up with no trade deals with either that will hit our economy hard.

    Leavers should therefore be hoping Trump wins if they want a FTA with the US
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    The TPP is where world growth will be for the next 20 years, the EU isn't.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    HYUFD said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Congress okays trade deals not Pompeo so it’s irrelevant what he says .
    Indeed. A Biden deal will get through Congress, a Trump one won't.

    Besides it's infeasible there'd be a deal agreed next year anyway. Realistically it'd take years to agree a deal. A Biden Presidency doing the legwork and ratification in 2025 in Harris's first term is more likely than a Trump deal next year.

    And if we can join the TPP and the USA joins too then that is the jackpot.
    Pelosi will of course rip up any FTA proposals on day 1 and Biden-Harris would also refuse to negotiate with the UK once the internal markets bill is passed. So any US and UK trade deal is dead in the water if the Democrats win.
    Who's fault is that? Your stupid party's fault, that's who.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    What if there is no deal? A policy for trade and exchange with the EU is still needed. Do we engage in tit-for-tat tariffs with them? That may appeal to the mercantalists, but it would immiserize both sides. Better to live up to our free trade credentials and unilaterally abolish tariffs, delivering the best outcome for the people of the UK.

    I'd be happy to do that but if we do WTO rules mean we'd be doing that with the whole world not just the EU.

    Otherwise the EU will simply be a third party and subject to WTO MFN rules.
    Yes, zero tariffs would apply to other countries too. What's not to like?

    The only thing not to like is that other nations would have no incentive to sign trade deals with us.
    That is just their loss.

    Their tariffs are their loss. Our lack of a deal is our loss.

    Thankfully tariffs are only 2% on average under the EU anyway and every indication is that they'll be lower under our new regime too. We have no reason whatsoever to put tariffs on olive oil etc
    Why is a lack of a deal our loss? If we abolish tariffs our consumers (i.e. everyone) gain. We don't need a deal for that. Your point about olive oil would have been made by David Ricardo, and is indubitably correct.

    Those consumers need jobs.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Phil said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Yes Could be Sunil who is excellent at parodies. Or a David.
    Absolutely- whoever is responsible deserves a discreet bow. Wodehouse parodies are blooming hard work to do, because his genius was to make pretty much every sentence funny. It's the masterstroke of using Wooster as narrator, but it sets up a lot of work.

    Evidence- Private Eye tried a "Leaves and Booster" parody just over a year ago (happy days...). Brilliant title, but much too much effort for a fortnightly publication.

    Me? I'd be interested to see a Mitchell and Webb update. Robert Webb has somehow become a dotcom billionaire, despite being an idiot. So he hires David Mitchell to run his life for him. Who just about keeps his disdain in check...
    Yes, Wodehouse’s apparently effortless prose is incredibly difficult to pull off well.

    Charlie Stross (SF author) tried his hand a few years ago & gave up on the grounds that it was simply too much effort for him to maintain the level of quality required: it’s much tougher to write than an ordinary novel. You can find the novella he did write published online entitled “Trunk and Disorderly” - there’s even an audiobook which is also free.
    Morris Dancer I'd have thought, if no one has drawn him in the sweepstake yet.
  • Options

    Fun as Philip vs sanity is I'm no longer that bothered about the catastrofuck that will be no deal in January. We have to deal with the growing apocalypse that is Covid19 first.

    Tell that to Johnson.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    The TPP is the future the EU the past
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited September 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Yes Could be Sunil who is excellent at parodies. Or a David.
    Absolutely- whoever is responsible deserves a discreet bow. Wodehouse parodies are blooming hard work to do, because his genius was to make pretty much every sentence funny. It's the masterstroke of using Wooster as narrator, but it sets up a lot of work.

    Evidence- Private Eye tried a "Leaves and Booster" parody just over a year ago (happy days...). Brilliant title, but much too much effort for a fortnightly publication.

    Me? I'd be interested to see a Mitchell and Webb update. Robert Webb has somehow become a dotcom billionaire, despite being an idiot. So he hires David Mitchell to run his life for him. Who just about keeps his disdain in check...
    Yes, Wodehouse’s apparently effortless prose is incredibly difficult to pull off well.

    Charlie Stross (SF author) tried his hand a few years ago & gave up on the grounds that it was simply too much effort for him to maintain the level of quality required: it’s much tougher to write than an ordinary novel. You can find the novella he did write published online entitled “Trunk and Disorderly” - there’s even an audiobook which is also free.
    Morris Dancer I'd have thought, if no one has drawn him in the sweepstake yet.
    Hadn't considered that, not a bad left field suggestion.

    Also a discreet way of ruling yourself out of the running I assume...
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    The expression clinging to straws comes to mind
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    The TPP is the future the EU the past
    "TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?

    On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?

    If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Biden ahead by 4 in Ohio though.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    That's got to be an outlier I would have thought.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943



    HYUFD said:
    That's got to be an outlier I would have thought.
    Maybe, maybe not

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1306253558988374016?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited September 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Biden ahead by 4 in Ohio though.
    Their national voteshare was accurate in 2016, I suspect their Ohio polling is off plus their national polling is more up to date
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1300761491688349696?s=20
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    MaxPB said:

    Also, there's no reason we shouldn't be pursuing a trade deal with the EU and accession to the TPP. That's got to be the short term goal for the next 2 years. They aren't mutually exclusive goals.

    On what evidence are you basing your opinion on that "TPP" would be more beneficial to the UK than full access to the Single Market, or is it simply a "its new, shiny, and not the EU"?
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Phil said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Do we know who wrote the header yet? I was going with Cyclefree or Meeks but now I`m thinking SeanT.

    Nah. The one thing he’s proven is that he only has the one distinctive writing style.
    the title is an allusion to the Jennings series, suggesting a male of a certain age. I reckon Sunil, who is rather fond of parodies.
    Yes Could be Sunil who is excellent at parodies. Or a David.
    Absolutely- whoever is responsible deserves a discreet bow. Wodehouse parodies are blooming hard work to do, because his genius was to make pretty much every sentence funny. It's the masterstroke of using Wooster as narrator, but it sets up a lot of work.

    Evidence- Private Eye tried a "Leaves and Booster" parody just over a year ago (happy days...). Brilliant title, but much too much effort for a fortnightly publication.

    Me? I'd be interested to see a Mitchell and Webb update. Robert Webb has somehow become a dotcom billionaire, despite being an idiot. So he hires David Mitchell to run his life for him. Who just about keeps his disdain in check...
    Yes, Wodehouse’s apparently effortless prose is incredibly difficult to pull off well.

    Charlie Stross (SF author) tried his hand a few years ago & gave up on the grounds that it was simply too much effort for him to maintain the level of quality required: it’s much tougher to write than an ordinary novel. You can find the novella he did write published online entitled “Trunk and Disorderly” - there’s even an audiobook which is also free.
    Morris Dancer I'd have thought, if no one has drawn him in the sweepstake yet.
    Hadn't considered that, not a bad left field suggestion.

    Also a discreet way of ruling yourself out of the running I assume...
    Or a bluff...
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Biden ahead by 4 in Ohio though.
    Their national voteshare was accurate in 2016, I suspect their Ohio polling is off
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1300761491688349696?s=20
    No it wasn't.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    The TPP is the future the EU the past
    "TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?

    On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?

    If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
    The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    The TPP is the future the EU the past
    "TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?

    On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?

    If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
    The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
    Which commentators?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Biden ahead by 4 in Ohio though.
    Their national voteshare was accurate in 2016, I suspect their Ohio polling is off
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1300761491688349696?s=20
    No it wasn't.
    It was, it was one of only 2 pollsters to correctly have a Clinton 2% lead
  • Options
    Announcement of a lockdown coming for the NE....

    And i have been made aware of an outbreak (unknown size) on a uni campus.
  • Options
    Re: possible UK-US trade deal, note that opposition by Speaker & other congressional leaders has little to do with trade, but MUCH to do with belief that current Brexit proposals by the Cummings-Johnson administration would be a SERIOUS blow to the Good Friday Agreement.

    A concern NOT limited to Members of Congress OR Americans.

    Also keep in mind, that when it comes to trade & economics, there is NO Special Relationship. Not on these shores (Atlantic & Pacific) and in between. Strictly a matter of dollars & cents versus pounds & pence.

    Meaning that Pelosi is NOT going to be against any & all trade deals with Perfidious Albion. Indeed, at heart she's a free trader from a free trade city & state.

    BUT any deal she and/or majority of any composition in Congress will have to pass two tests:

    >> does it preserve and safeguard the Good Friday Agreement?

    >> does it pencil out well for the good old USA?



  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited September 2020
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    I see Rasmussen have a poll out today with Trump +6 approval (!)
    Morning Consult have a poll with similar dates out today -22 approval

    Well Rasmussen called 2016 right, its final poll was Clinton +2%
    Biden ahead by 4 in Ohio though.
    Their national voteshare was accurate in 2016, I suspect their Ohio polling is off
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1300761491688349696?s=20
    No it wasn't.
    It was, it was one of only 2 pollsters to correctly have a Clinton 2% lead
    Yeah, so the lead was correct, not the vote share.

    I repeat: stop making plainly incorrect statements.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    @Philip_Thompson you are essentially whining again.

    We want tariff-free access to the single market.

    The EU want tariff-free access to the UK market.
    The EU want access to "our" fish.
    The EU want protection against us leading a "race to the bottom".

    What you are witnessing is a negotiation. What you are witnessing is a power imbalance, massively in favour of the EU. What on earth about this surprises you?

    Oh yeah of course, "we hold all the cards" turned out to be utter tripe and yet you still claim that is true. It's ludicrous and makes you sound unhinged.

    And NI, well that compromise was endorsed in the GE in December. Endorsed with a 80 seat majority. In fact only a month ago you were still claiming the deal meant "no border in the Irish Sea" despite us "remoaners" telling you otherwise, and that it was fantastic. Your shameless u-turn is just that.

    Your first statement is incorrect actually. The government has conceded that it's negotiating position on the LPF will result in some tariffs on some goods.
    OK well thanks for the correction, but it doesn't change anything.
    It absolutely does.

    The UK is seeking a standard LPF for a standard trade agreement.

    The EU is trying to subjugate us into following dynamically laws we don't vote on and have us as a subjugated part of their "sphere of influence". That is something Empires do not modern friendly nations.
    There you are, whinging and whining again.
    That's all your childish ranting is.

    "Boo hoo, the EU won't give us exactly what we want".

    It's really rather funny to watch.
    I'm not whinging I'm happy our Government is standing up for the UK.

    If you think that the EU can powerplay to screw us over and subjugate us then the UK can use asymmetric power plays of our own like screwing them over by walking away from the NI Protocol. If they're a hostile state then all is fair.
    You are constantly whinging. Every day.

    "They're trying to subjugate us" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're acting in bad faith" *throws toys out of pram*
    "They're trying to colonise us" *throws toys out of pram*

    It's a constant stream of whine. Get a grip man.

    Brexit is already done. We are now experiencing the reality of what Brexit is. This is Brexit. I've accepted it and moved on, just like most of the country. I suggest you do the same.
    To be honest you are just as partisan in your arguments as Philip is in his

    Brexit is not done, there is a huge difference between deal and no deal and you should recognise that
    No, I just recognise the reality of the situation. If we want a FTA with the EU, we have to accept that we are in a weaker negotiating position. That's just the reality of Brexit.

    Likewise we have to accept bureaucracy and red tape, again, the reality of Brexit. We have been told since 2016 that none of these barriers would be an issue, and we should just get on with things. That's exactly what I'm doing.

    Except those like Philip who used to be the ones telling us to get on with things are now the ones whinging and whining about the very same issues. It's hypocritical and laughable.
    We are not in a weaker negotiating position though. We are sovereign equals and if you can't see that then I feel sorry for you.
    It's about 35-65 to 45-55 depending on the issue. It would definitely be 45-55 without the ticking clock.

    Japan was about 50-50. I expect Canada and Australia will be too. So will NZ too, because it doesn't make much difference to either of us. On some emerging markets and developing countries it will be 55-45 to the UK.

    USA will be about 40-60 and anything more there won't be a deal. India will try for 30-70 and so won't get one.

    For China we'd need to sell our soul.

    "Weight" matters but it can't be *totally* skewed because then no-one would ever do a free trade deal.
    Joining the TPA would be a big moment
    Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
    That is not the case

    The future lies in full participation in the TPP
    Our current exports to TPP members are less than a fifth of those to EU members. Even if the US joins it is half. It is less ambitious than the single market (doesn't even eliminate all tariffs) and the EU already has FTAs with the two current TPP members we export most to (Japan and Canada). It is also on the other side of the world (which is of course why we don't export much to these economies). It's not a replacement for the single market.
    The TPP is the future the EU the past
    "TPP" doesn't even exist anymore. Do you mean the CPTPP?

    On what basis is it "the future"? Do you even know what it includes and what it doesn't? What benefit to our economy is it when compared to the status quo?

    If you can't answer any of these questions then maybe it isn't the future.
    The TPP is widely recognised as the future for World trade as evidence on here by several posters and by most commentators
    Which commentators?
    Scores of business reviews from various sources
This discussion has been closed.