My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
Entirely possible. However, as the Time article pointed out re Michigan, if you drove around the state, the only thing that would you make you think Biden has a chance would be the opinion polls. Everywhere around were Trump posters, flags etc.
Opinion polls are not infallable.
Nor is your spelling, if I may politely point this out.
You may indeed. I make mistakes.
However, my spelling and grammar is of far less importance than the general point that was making re the opinion polls.
Shouldn't the abundance of Trump posters and flags etc make you stop and consider that maybe, just maybe shy Trumpers won't be a thing so the polls are more likely to be accurate?
MAGA types are not shy.
Indeed. The polls from Texas and Georgia might be taken to suggest quite a few shy anti-Trumpers.
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
Good question. Not sure how to check, but it seems to me that other similiar countries are performing much, much worse empirically.
The best way to compare how nations are coping with testing is the positivity rate, since if that is high then countries have lost control of the virus and aren't testing sufficiently.
On the most recent date with full comparable information - 10/9/19 - the UK had 1.3% of all COVID19 tests come back positive. In comparison Spain was 11% (8/9), France was 5.4% (also 10/9), Italy 2.6% (not sure which date) and Portugal 2.3%
Only Germany has a better rate than ours, though their data isn't up to date and goes back to before ours started rising again (we were running at a lower rate than them since July until then).
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
You are right, of course. But as we are going down the self-harm route, CPTPP is an interesting proposition. It's a decent number of decent countries. However I don't think CPTPP will be either a quick or easy solution for the UK. My understanding:
CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
> for WA Governor: Inslee (incumbent Dem) 48%, Culp (very conservative Rep) 48%, o/u/dk 4%
> Net Favorable: Trump - 12%, Biden +1%, Inslee +1%, Culp +10% (but with just 56% name ID)
SO the President is trailing a far-right unknown GOPer running for Governor. Partly due to Inslee fatigue (he's running for 3rd term) but mostly methinks on account of Trumpsky allergy.
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
German friend got a test within 2 hours and result same day on Monday. Friend in Thailand needs a weekly negative test before she is allowed to teach. Them' s my anecdotes FWIW.
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
You are right, of course. But as we are going down the self-harm route, CPTPP is an interesting proposition. It's a decent number of decent countries. However I don't think CPTPP will be either a quick or easy solution for the UK. My understanding:
CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
German friend got a test within 2 hours and result same day on Monday. Friend in Thailand needs a weekly negative test before she is allowed to teach. Them' s my anecdotes FWIW.
Quote from a Guardian letter from a reader in France:
"I live in Finistère, in the far north-west of France. During lockdown I had major surgery for cancer. I need a further procedure next month and must have a Covid test beforehand. My options are a four-minute drive to a testing centre in a nearby village, or a nine-minute drive to the medical lab in the nearest town, or a 37-minute drive to two other test centres."
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
German friend got a test within 2 hours and result same day on Monday. Friend in Thailand needs a weekly negative test before she is allowed to teach. Them' s my anecdotes FWIW.
Quote from a Guardian letter from a reader in France:
"I live in Finistère, in the far north-west of France. During lockdown I had major surgery for cancer. I need a further procedure next month and must have a Covid test beforehand. My options are a four-minute drive to a testing centre in a nearby village, or a nine-minute drive to the medical lab in the nearest town, or a 37-minute drive to two other test centres."
One of the points made by the Trump supporters at the Nevada rally was that they just could not see how the opinion polls were right in saying Biden had a lead given what they were seeing in their areas, speaking with neighbours etc.
My gut feel is that Rasmussen / Trafalgar will be the pollsters that are the closest this time around. I wish (at this stage) I had the guts to back this with a sizeable bet.
Yeah because they're in their own little Trump supporting bubble. They are just like Corbynistas who don't know any Tory voters.
Entirely possible. However, as the Time article pointed out re Michigan, if you drove around the state, the only thing that would you make you think Biden has a chance would be the opinion polls. Everywhere around were Trump posters, flags etc.
Opinion polls are not infallable.
Nor is your spelling, if I may politely point this out.
Signs don't vote - people do.
Littering the rural landscape with copious signage is a hallmark of right-wing campaigns. Can remember one back in 1996 here in WA State where hard-right Republican nominee for Gov (Ellen Craswell) had a bizillion signs across the state (including one atop an all-night cafe in Seattle noted for providing pimps & prostitutes an after-midnight respite).
Leaving the single market will be a big moment. Everything else is just playing catch-up, and failing.
You are right, of course. But as we are going down the self-harm route, CPTPP is an interesting proposition. It's a decent number of decent countries. However I don't think CPTPP will be either a quick or easy solution for the UK. My understanding:
CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
German friend got a test within 2 hours and result same day on Monday. Friend in Thailand needs a weekly negative test before she is allowed to teach. Them' s my anecdotes FWIW.
Quote from a Guardian letter from a reader in France:
"I live in Finistère, in the far north-west of France. During lockdown I had major surgery for cancer. I need a further procedure next month and must have a Covid test beforehand. My options are a four-minute drive to a testing centre in a nearby village, or a nine-minute drive to the medical lab in the nearest town, or a 37-minute drive to two other test centres."
My view is that we are successfully testing more than any other comparable nation per capita and that we are continuing to expand capacity. There is effectively infinite demand currently, but Test and Trace are still world leading. They're world leading within a pandemic where we want everything to be perfect in an imperfect world.
Are other similar countries experiencing as many issues with testing? Genuine question - I don't know.
German friend got a test within 2 hours and result same day on Monday. Friend in Thailand needs a weekly negative test before she is allowed to teach. Them' s my anecdotes FWIW.
Quote from a Guardian letter from a reader in France:
"I live in Finistère, in the far north-west of France. During lockdown I had major surgery for cancer. I need a further procedure next month and must have a Covid test beforehand. My options are a four-minute drive to a testing centre in a nearby village, or a nine-minute drive to the medical lab in the nearest town, or a 37-minute drive to two other test centres."
Anecdotes like this really aren't that informative. You can likely find loads of examples of people getting prompt and nearby tests in the UK.
Yes fair point.
If the Government are delivering world-beating testing they are promoting their achievement with fourth-rate PR.
There's clearly a demand issue at the moment. The only way around that is to increase further the capacity. Perhaps the demand is not as significant in the other countries, they might have different eligibility requirements, for example.
Comments
The best way to compare how nations are coping with testing is the positivity rate, since if that is high then countries have lost control of the virus and aren't testing sufficiently.
On the most recent date with full comparable information - 10/9/19 - the UK had 1.3% of all COVID19 tests come back positive. In comparison Spain was 11% (8/9), France was 5.4% (also 10/9), Italy 2.6% (not sure which date) and Portugal 2.3%
Only Germany has a better rate than ours, though their data isn't up to date and goes back to before ours started rising again (we were running at a lower rate than them since July until then).
- CPTPP is a portfolio agreement. There is a core document that is fixed and won't be reopened for the UK. Each country agrees a bilateral with each of the others; this is where the flexibility is.
- Given the 11 countries have already implemented CPTPP, the sequence for the UK to join is: (1) Agree EU Deal; (2) Agree 11 bilateral FTAs; (3) Join CPTPP with unanimous agreement of other members.
- My take: UK needs a deal with the EU. Other CPTPP countries won't have enough certainty to proceed otherwise.
- My take: CPTPP countries are in a very strong negotiating position with the UK as each one has a veto at the end of the process. They will leverage that position. Canada is looking particularly sniffy.
Info here (with a somewhat positive spin):http://ifreetrade.org/pdfs/UK-CPTPP.pdf
> Partisanship: Democrats 47%, Republicans 46%, Independents 7%
> For President: Trump 45%, Biden 50%, other, undecided, don't know 5%
> for WA Governor: Inslee (incumbent Dem) 48%, Culp (very conservative Rep) 48%, o/u/dk 4%
> Net Favorable: Trump - 12%, Biden +1%, Inslee +1%, Culp +10% (but with just 56% name ID)
SO the President is trailing a far-right unknown GOPer running for Governor. Partly due to Inslee fatigue (he's running for 3rd term) but mostly methinks on account of Trumpsky allergy.
Friend in Thailand needs a weekly negative test before she is allowed to teach.
Them' s my anecdotes FWIW.
"I live in Finistère, in the far north-west of France. During lockdown I had major surgery for cancer. I need a further procedure next month and must have a Covid test beforehand. My options are a four-minute drive to a testing centre in a nearby village, or a nine-minute drive to the medical lab in the nearest town, or a 37-minute drive to two other test centres."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/testing-and-the-fantasy-of-a-moonshot-mission
Littering the rural landscape with copious signage is a hallmark of right-wing campaigns. Can remember one back in 1996 here in WA State where hard-right Republican nominee for Gov (Ellen Craswell) had a bizillion signs across the state (including one atop an all-night cafe in Seattle noted for providing pimps & prostitutes an after-midnight respite).
Result: she lost by a landslide.
If the Government are delivering world-beating testing they are promoting their achievement with fourth-rate PR.
I scrolled past massive fucking spreadsheets every day as fast as could.