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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much – polit

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Well.... this looks slightly different doesn't it? :open_mouth:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Interesting, if worrying, article on FiveThirtyEight:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

    I am sure it is all bluster from Trump. He says loads of extreme things he is going to do and virtually never follows through.
    You may be right - I hope you are.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    RobD said:

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    dixiedean said:

    Yorkcity said:

    How do you get to the older comments on a thread now ?

    Use vanilla.
    Sorry to be late to the party and a bit dim - what does "use vanilla" mean. I have politicalbetting.com in my favourites and click on that. Is vanilla a app or something?
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/
    When I click on that the header doesn`t come up and then the comments are upside down - is that right?
    Welcome to upside-down world.
    It’s the one where the Lib Dem’s finally come out on top.
  • The only decent, sensible, and conservative position is to vote against this Republican Party at every level, and bring the sad final days of a once-great political institution to an end. Then build the party back up again—from scratch.

    ...conservatives must finally accept that at this point Trump and the Republican Party are indistinguishable.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/i-used-think-gop-should-be-saved/616189/

    Well said.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    The thing about Ed Miliband is that, like William Hague, he was chosen as party leader far too early. Hague eventually became a very serious politician; Ed M has also matured quite well in the last five years.

    Ed's big mistake was resigning the leadership. Was probably inevitable, but I am sure Labour would be in a better place if he hadn't.
    He would almost certainly have faced a stalking donkey challenge from the left, using borrowed nominations from the Blairites - quite possibly Corbyn on the Buggins Turn principle - and lost.
    Perhaps. Or maybe he'd have won.
    He did manage a swing in E+W, but undershot expectations. Which is why I said it was probably inevitable.
    Had the LDs not collapsed and another hung Parliament occurred he might well have clung on.
    Politics in general would be mighty different then.
    I like Ed, as you can probably guess.
  • Ben Spencer sounds like a no.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Interesting, if worrying, article on FiveThirtyEight:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

    I am sure it is all bluster from Trump. He says loads of extreme things he is going to do and virtually never follows through.
    I do think if he loses, Trump will make the Transition period extremely difficult for Biden, America and the whole world.

    Apart from his daily railing and ranting against the election itself, he will spend the period reminding everyone he is still President and trying to use Executive Orders as much as possible. IF the GOP have lost both the Senate and Congress, we will then have a hostile stand-off when the houses return in January and complete paralysis until Inauguration Day.

    I suspect there will be plenty of Presidential pardons while his former administrative cronies jump ship as fast as possible and race to be the first to write the memoir of what it was REALLY like in Trump's White House, the publications of which will further diminish Trump and his family. I suspect we will find the likes of Jared Kushner had a frighteningly heavy influence on Trump.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    On topic, article on whether problems with state polling in the Midwest has been fixed. Short answer is no:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/09/11/have_pollsters_figured_out_how_to_poll_the_midwest.html#2
  • Ed M was dealt a rotten hand by a load of Blairite advisors that had their day.

    If he'd been allowed to be himself and not managed to death he'd have done better.

    I am absolutely certain that if he'd ran in 2017 with Starmer's team he'd have walked that election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Brilliant from Spencer.
  • In 2015 frankly I didn't much mind who won, neither leader seemed dangerous to me and it was amazing the visceral hatred Ed M seemed to get in the press.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Up to three doctors at my mother's GP surgery now stuck at home due to kids with a temperature unable to get a test for love nor money. Fortunately they can still work from home, but so much for the offering of face to face appointments...
    The vast majority of these cases are going to be seasonal colds imho.

    Of course they are. Which is why they need the tests asap! Because until they get tests the schools will not allow them back. And under the law the doctors must self isolate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Imperial starting vaccine trials with inhalation as the delivery method. Nigelb posted it a few weeks back and it looked very promising from the animal trial data. Could be a very important moment in the fight against this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222
    Alistair said:
    ICE is a disgusting organisation with apparent contempt for due process, or even basic humanity.

    And yet even some of its victims believe that there is hope for the US.
    This is a remarkable story:
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/09/21/the-man-who-refused-to-spy
    ... “I appeared as an Iranian in front of an American judge,” he reflected. “This American judge ruled against an F.B.I. agent in my favor. I was privileged to witness the way he handled the trial, from jury selection to the end, the way he advocated impartiality and fairness. I believe these are global values that should be respected by all governments, including my own.” He added, “My attorneys, who put their heart into this thing—they were employees of the same government that was on the other side of this case.”

    What a comedown it had been to pass out of the judiciary and into the hands of ICE. There, he had been witness to values that appeared to stand in bald contrast to those of the courts. He was staggered by the number of detainees who, he felt, had no business being imprisoned, and by brutal treatment that seemed at odds with the liberality of American law....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Scott_xP said:
    I voted leave but it’s hardly surprising that experiences like that made Heath an EEC man to his core. Different lives, different views.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    MaxPB said:

    Imperial starting vaccine trials with inhalation as the delivery method. Nigelb posted it a few weeks back and it looked very promising from the animal trial data. Could be a very important moment in the fight against this.

    Engaging the virus on its home territory so to speak.

  • Interesting, if worrying, article on FiveThirtyEight:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

    I am sure it is all bluster from Trump. He says loads of extreme things he is going to do and virtually never follows through.
    You may be right - I hope you are.
    I am not optimistic. I think America will see a lot of political violence post-election. Hope I'm wrong.
  • alex_ said:

    Is this taking the knee at the start of every match going to continue indefinitely?

    I think the cricket got it right, they did it to show support but have moved on from that particular gesture. Even the NFL, most players aren't, instead they are linking arms.

    Perhaps it should stop when the problem of racism is eliminated and when no players still feel the brunt of racism and want to continue with it?
    So never then. And when we get another social justice campaign, we should add that in, and more and more and more. And anybody who refuses to do any of them ostracised.

    BBC today having a go at England cricket for not taking the knee, demanding to know from Archer why they aren't doing it. After Sky's Holding did the same.
    If it never ends then what's wrong with never?

    This is something the players want to do. The players have fronted campaigns like Kick It Out for years. Why shouldn't they do this if they want to?

    If the Cricketers don't want to so be it too. That's their choice too.

    How is it any better to stop the Footballers from doing it than it is to insist that the Cricketers do?
    Except that isn't how it is. The BBC literally questioned Archer if his team mates don't support BLM and is so why not. And what exactly are they doing to show their support to this cause instead of taking a knee.

    This has become absolute poppyism. If you don't do it, you are picked out. It has happened in the rugby and in the F1. They is no room to say actually I don't support BLM, I think they are a toxic marxist organisation, in the same way as XR are marxist eco loons.

    As I say, I thought the NFL had the right approach, they don't use BLM slogan and instead the players stand arm in arm.
    The thing is that ultimately taking the knee, or whatever other similar actions are taken, is symbolism. Fine as a starting point, to draw attention to an issue, and show support - but absolutely pointless unless subsequently followed up with action. And ultimately it is action that what matters. Of course there is no reason why you can't do both - but the danger is that many people will come to see the symbolic gesture as sufficient. And not look any further.

    Move on from the symbolic gesture and you really are forced to question whether enough is being done to challenge institutional failings. And if in several weeks or months time it appears that nothing has changed, then the symbolic gestures can be revived to shame authorities and individuals to be forced to justify what they've been doing.

    I think the other point is that the meaning of the symbolic gestures can come confused. Are they protesting about police actions in the US? Police actions in the UK? Societal failings? Or failings in your own sport?
    I wonder if the initial taking the knee movement (which afaics was a specifically US thing) had been generally accepted as a respectful gesture towards a history of institutional racism rather than an insult to the nation verging on treason whether things might now be different? Of course for some (on both sides I'd accept), an escalation and wilful lack of understanding suits them very well.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:
    Massive reverse ferret means Johnson is safe (not that he ever wasn't) to fight another day with reputation further diminished.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,113
    edited September 2020

    Interesting, if worrying, article on FiveThirtyEight:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

    I am sure it is all bluster from Trump. He says loads of extreme things he is going to do and virtually never follows through.
    You may be right - I hope you are.
    I am not optimistic. I think America will see a lot of political violence post-election. Hope I'm wrong.
    The Far Leftists aren't going to be happy whoever wins. You only have to look at Portland, where the Mayor is way to the left of most and still he has to go in their eyes. 100+ days of smashing the place up.

    Then if Trump gets beaten, we have the Proud Boys and other right wing groups that like to wave their guns and engage in violence.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    Priti Patel said we should use food in NI as a negotiating tool, or do you think the UK hasn't weaponised Brexit either?

    On this, you're completely off the deep end and it's depressing to see
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
  • Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You are only meant to blow the bloody doors off
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I voted leave but it’s hardly surprising that experiences like that made Heath an EEC man to his core. Different lives, different views.
    Heath is a much better writer than I imagined.

    What an amazing firsthand account of the leading Nazis.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited September 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    Why did Johnson Sign the WA?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
    Necessity is the mother of invention. The EU feel they have no necessity to compromise, they've turned NI into a bomb to hold over the UK to blackmail us into doing whatever they want.

    Enough is enough!
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.
    That plus the Rule of 6, includes kids. My Whatsapp group is full of angry parents getting very animated about how little Johnny can't do x or y now because of this rule.
  • Gove summing up for the Cummings Government.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    Why did Johnson Sign the WA?
    The EU promised to negotiate in good faith and that the Joint Committee would resolve these issues.

    The Joint Committee has failed to do its job.
    The EU have operated in bad faith, as they have since May lost her majority in 2017.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
    Necessity is the mother of invention. The EU feel they have no necessity to compromise, they've turned NI into a bomb to hold over the UK to blackmail us into doing whatever they want.

    Enough is enough!
    Not quite there yet - with your spoof of SeanT's late-night bibulous rants - but a good effort.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,002
    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
    Necessity is the mother of invention. The EU feel they have no necessity to compromise, they've turned NI into a bomb to hold over the UK to blackmail us into doing whatever they want.

    Enough is enough!
    Not quite there yet - with your spoof of SeanT's late-night bibulous rants - but a good effort.
    I'm bloody serious. I've said the same thing sober or anything else for years now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    MaxPB said:

    Imperial starting vaccine trials with inhalation as the delivery method. Nigelb posted it a few weeks back and it looked very promising from the animal trial data. Could be a very important moment in the fight against this.

    Surely having a safe, effective vaccine will be the important moment; the method of delivery is a minor secondary consideration.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    Interesting, if worrying, article on FiveThirtyEight:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

    I am sure it is all bluster from Trump. He says loads of extreme things he is going to do and virtually never follows through.
    You may be right - I hope you are.
    I am not optimistic. I think America will see a lot of political violence post-election. Hope I'm wrong.
    It's seeing a bit pre-election to be fair.
  • Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Surely it's time for Matt Hancock to get behind the podium and announce a 500k target by the end of October for testing and force the machinery of government to get there. That's how it happened last time, without the target we'd still be plodding along at 70-80k pillar 1 tests.
  • Its funny seeing Wallace from Wallace and Gromit back on TV.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I voted leave but it’s hardly surprising that experiences like that made Heath an EEC man to his core. Different lives, different views.
    Heath is a much better writer than I imagined.

    What an amazing firsthand account of the leading Nazis.
    There are interesting parallels in Denis Healeys autobiography. Both he and Heath toured Germany the same Summer ISTR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    GIN1138 said:

    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D

    2017 parliament could have held their powder for this vote if they were truely far sighted :D
  • dixiedean said:

    Interesting, if worrying, article on FiveThirtyEight:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/

    I am sure it is all bluster from Trump. He says loads of extreme things he is going to do and virtually never follows through.
    You may be right - I hope you are.
    I am not optimistic. I think America will see a lot of political violence post-election. Hope I'm wrong.
    It's seeing a bit pre-election to be fair.
    Warm up, sadly. If you allow vast numbers of citizens to carry automatic weapons and god knows what else and then fill them up with lies and conspiracy then there is likely to be only one result.
  • MaxPB said:

    Surely it's time for Matt Hancock to get behind the podium and announce a 500k target by the end of October for testing and force the machinery of government to get there. That's how it happened last time, without the target we'd still be plodding along at 70-80k pillar 1 tests.

    We'd still be 10% of that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    edited September 2020


    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.

    That's an interesting turn of phrase. My issue is less with the EU and NI aspects than the power-grab by the Executive.

    The Bill empowers Ministers at the expense of Parliament and what I struggle to with is those who continually assert the sovereignty of Parliament are supine in the face of the abdication of this sovereignty to Ministers who are themselves subject to the control of No.10 and the Prime Minister.

    I have no issue whatsoever with Parliament re-asserting sovereignty and taking back control from the EU but I didn't support that in order for it to cede much of that sovereignty to the Executive.

    There is a need for accountability and scrutiny of the Executive and that's the function of Parliament - to hold Ministers including the Prime Minister to account.

    This is typical Boris Johnson and similar to what he did as Mayor of London which was to take more powers into his office (Police, transport) and reduce his accountability to the Greater London Assembly.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.
    And of course everyone can try it out for themselves if they're not sure whether to believe it. Maybe their friends have just got unlucky? Every single person hearing anecdotes about not being able to get a test, or not without travelling from Cornwall to Northern Ireland or something almost equally bizarre, can try it for themselves. Go on the website, make up some details, pretend you're in different parts of the country, and see what it spits out as your option.

    Even if some of the reports about exaggeration of testing capacity are true, and the UK really are doing much more testing than everyone else, they've blown it by not managing better the system by which people require, are eligible for, and can apply for a test. Supply and demand. Don't concentrate on the supply if you don't also control the demand.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Imperial starting vaccine trials with inhalation as the delivery method. Nigelb posted it a few weeks back and it looked very promising from the animal trial data. Could be a very important moment in the fight against this.

    Surely having a safe, effective vaccine will be the important moment; the method of delivery is a minor secondary consideration.
    From the data it looks like an aerolised version results in a much stronger immune response and it would be very easy to administer across the developing world without the need for sterile needles and medical training.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited September 2020

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    My son whose 8 year old daughter needed a test was offered one at Aberdeen Airport

    He lives in Colwyn Bay 412 miles away
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    Why did Johnson Sign the WA?
    To get a deal he had no intention of honouring otherwise he wouldn’t have got that large majority .
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    GIN1138 said:

    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D

    We're once again waiting to see if the DUP will back it ... but mostly just for a laugh :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    Why did Johnson Sign the WA?
    The EU promised to negotiate in good faith and that the Joint Committee would resolve these issues.

    The Joint Committee has failed to do its job.
    The EU have operated in bad faith, as they have since May lost her majority in 2017.
    Your definition of them operating in bad faith seems to be 'they are not giving us what we want'.
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D

    2017 parliament could have held their powder for this vote if they were truely far sighted :D
    That's a really good alt-history. Had the 2017 Parliament ratified Boris's deal there'd have been no election and then COVID would have hit a minority government, there couldn't have been a spring election, the EU would have negotiated this year knowing we had a minority government and it would be extremely difficult now to do anything at all.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    Surely it's time for Matt Hancock to get behind the podium and announce a 500k target by the end of October for testing and force the machinery of government to get there. That's how it happened last time, without the target we'd still be plodding along at 70-80k pillar 1 tests.

    Pointless unless you can manage demand to match.
  • dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.
    That plus the Rule of 6, includes kids. My Whatsapp group is full of angry parents getting very animated about how little Johnny can't do x or y now because of this rule.
    There'll be a u-turn tonight if they lose this vote (extremely unlikely). If they don't lose, then the u-turn will be saved for a day when some other clusterf**k needs to be hidden.

    Tabloids will scream 'Xmas saved' and all that.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    GIN1138 said:

    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D

    We're once again waiting to see if the DUP will back it ... but mostly just for a laugh :wink:
    It's very pro union with regards to Northern Ireland. I'd expect them to be the most supportive party all voting 'For'.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Actually I agree with that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,222

    Pulpstar said:

    ... but hardly surprising. Why would we ever think thay can't?
    Because if they can, we shouldn't have classrooms full of kids...
    You can, just with face coverings, extra tests and so forth.
    Indeed. My wife's primary school issued all teaching staff with visors today. My daughter's primary school has instigated mandatory mask wearing for all staff and parents when outside the classroom on school property. My son't high school is strongly recommending students wear masks outside the classroom.

    Remember that the official Gavin Twatface guidance was that schools should be a mask free zone...
    And the insistence that they were ‘absolutely safe’ - and that Starmer was a disgrace for not repeating the mantra.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    Why did Johnson Sign the WA?
    The EU promised to negotiate in good faith and that the Joint Committee would resolve these issues.

    The Joint Committee has failed to do its job.
    The EU have operated in bad faith, as they have since May lost her majority in 2017.
    Try harder - the Northern Ireland committee report today specifically said that EU are negotiating in good faith, and the UK negotiators agree.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Imperial starting vaccine trials with inhalation as the delivery method. Nigelb posted it a few weeks back and it looked very promising from the animal trial data. Could be a very important moment in the fight against this.

    Surely having a safe, effective vaccine will be the important moment; the method of delivery is a minor secondary consideration.
    From the data it looks like an aerolised version results in a much stronger immune response and it would be very easy to administer across the developing world without the need for sterile needles and medical training.
    Ok, makes sense. Thanks for the explanation.
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    She's a good friend of them all from Oxbridge days?
  • stodge said:


    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.

    That's an interesting turn of phrase. My issue is less with the EU and NI aspects than the power-grab by the Executive.

    The Bill empowers Ministers at the expense of Parliament and what I struggle to with is those who continually assert the sovereignty of Parliament are supine in the face of the abdication of this sovereignty to Ministers who are themselves subject to the control of No.10 and the Prime Minister.

    I have no issue whatsoever with Parliament re-asserting sovereignty and taking back control from the EU but I didn't support that in order for it to cede much of that sovereignty to the Executive.

    There is a need for accountability and scrutiny of the Executive and that's the function of Parliament - to hold Ministers including the Prime Minister to account.

    This is typical Boris Johnson and similar to what he did as Mayor of London which was to take more powers into his office (Police, transport) and reduce his accountability to the Greater London Assembly.
    That's a fair point about the Parliament v the Executive, quite frankly to me a better point than the international law one.

    The Neill amendment deals with the Parliament v Executive issue . . . it doesn't really deal with the international law one. I'd be quite happy to see this bill go through with the Neill amendment. Require a Statutory Instrument and a Commons vote for any actions taken under this Bill, though interestingly Boris said that would happen which makes me wonder what the difference is between the Bill unamended and with the Amendment anyway?
  • Miliband 2.0?

    Blistering snip there on BBC News at 10.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.
    That plus the Rule of 6, includes kids. My Whatsapp group is full of angry parents getting very animated about how little Johnny can't do x or y now because of this rule.
    Yes. Little Johnny can't go to school for 2 weeks because he or a classmate is sick. He or Classmate can't get the test.
    Therefore Mum or Dad need to be off work. But they are worried about their jobs. Or should grandparents look after them?
    Literally tens of thousands of kids with colds right now.
    Most will just be colds. But schools can't be expected to just let them in.
    Boris in Parliament really is not the issue right now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Interesting that the BBC are leading on the internal market bill (quite rightly in my opinion), yet Sky are talking about forest fires.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Still, at least the Brexit pantomime means nobody is talking about the Covid testing fiasco...

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305601630012874755

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.
    That plus the Rule of 6, includes kids. My Whatsapp group is full of angry parents getting very animated about how little Johnny can't do x or y now because of this rule.
    There'll be a u-turn tonight if they lose this vote (extremely unlikely). If they don't lose, then the u-turn will be saved for a day when some other clusterf**k needs to be hidden.

    Tabloids will scream 'Xmas saved' and all that.

    The clusterf**k of testing will not go away.

    But hey, Dido's in charge and she's ridden a horse at Cheltenham and went to a good school, so all will be fine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Surely it's time for Matt Hancock to get behind the podium and announce a 500k target by the end of October for testing and force the machinery of government to get there. That's how it happened last time, without the target we'd still be plodding along at 70-80k pillar 1 tests.

    Pointless unless you can manage demand to match.
    Well that's surely just a case of paying cloudflare. There needs to be enough excess capacity in areas that are likely outbreak spots. It feels like the government's modelling team is once again being caught short. We've know for ages that the North was likely to be the second wave epicenter and it would spread from there into Scotland and Birmingham. Why has nothing been done to up the processing capacity in these areas?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D

    2017 parliament could have held their powder for this vote if they were truely far sighted :D
    Indeed! The turkeys really did vote for Christmas when they decided to trigger a Christmas election :D
  • Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I know the media are trying to build up the votes on this bill to be something dramatic but with a majority of 80 these votes just don't have the same drama attached to them as 2017 to 2019 do they? :D

    We're once again waiting to see if the DUP will back it ... but mostly just for a laugh :wink:
    It's very pro union with regards to Northern Ireland. I'd expect them to be the most supportive party all voting 'For'.
    I know they're the "No! No! No! Party made flesh, but if they don't say Aye to this what would they ever say Aye to?
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
    No, she was in charge of the call centre not the testing scale up, that was one of the hired gun project managers the government got from Deloitte.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
    Necessity is the mother of invention. The EU feel they have no necessity to compromise, they've turned NI into a bomb to hold over the UK to blackmail us into doing whatever they want.

    Enough is enough!
    Not quite there yet - with your spoof of SeanT's late-night bibulous rants - but a good effort.
    Yeah it's Sean vs Philip for unhinged award
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited September 2020

    stodge said:


    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.

    That's an interesting turn of phrase. My issue is less with the EU and NI aspects than the power-grab by the Executive.

    The Bill empowers Ministers at the expense of Parliament and what I struggle to with is those who continually assert the sovereignty of Parliament are supine in the face of the abdication of this sovereignty to Ministers who are themselves subject to the control of No.10 and the Prime Minister.

    I have no issue whatsoever with Parliament re-asserting sovereignty and taking back control from the EU but I didn't support that in order for it to cede much of that sovereignty to the Executive.

    There is a need for accountability and scrutiny of the Executive and that's the function of Parliament - to hold Ministers including the Prime Minister to account.

    This is typical Boris Johnson and similar to what he did as Mayor of London which was to take more powers into his office (Police, transport) and reduce his accountability to the Greater London Assembly.
    That's a fair point about the Parliament v the Executive, quite frankly to me a better point than the international law one.

    The Neill amendment deals with the Parliament v Executive issue . . . it doesn't really deal with the international law one. I'd be quite happy to see this bill go through with the Neill amendment. Require a Statutory Instrument and a Commons vote for any actions taken under this Bill, though interestingly Boris said that would happen which makes me wonder what the difference is between the Bill unamended and with the Amendment anyway?
    The former relies on Boris's word, whereas the latter would actually happen?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
    Necessity is the mother of invention. The EU feel they have no necessity to compromise, they've turned NI into a bomb to hold over the UK to blackmail us into doing whatever they want.

    Enough is enough!
    Not quite there yet - with your spoof of SeanT's late-night bibulous rants - but a good effort.
    Yeah it's Sean vs Philip for unhinged award
    To be fair though I think I'm considered "unhinged" in how we should deal with the EU.

    Sean is unhinged on everything depending upon whether it is pre or post lagershed.
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
    She was appointed a week after the government first claimed to have met the 100k per day target in May.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited September 2020

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
    She was appointed a week after the government first claimed to have met the 100k per day target in May.
    Eveb then that was to run the call centre rather than the testing regime. She only got put in charge of testing at a much later date.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    God, that sounds familiar.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
    She was appointed a week after the government first claimed to have met the 100k per day target in May.
    That was to run the call centre rather than the testing regime. She only got out in charge of testing at a much later date.
    The press reporting at the time in May was that she was in charge of testing and the Test and Trace program.

    I thought the change in August was the merger to put PHE under her control too?
  • What kind of majority do we forecast? I'm guessing about 50-60?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Surely it's time for Matt Hancock to get behind the podium and announce a 500k target by the end of October for testing and force the machinery of government to get there. That's how it happened last time, without the target we'd still be plodding along at 70-80k pillar 1 tests.

    Pointless unless you can manage demand to match.
    Well that's surely just a case of paying cloudflare. There needs to be enough excess capacity in areas that are likely outbreak spots. It feels like the government's modelling team is once again being caught short. We've know for ages that the North was likely to be the second wave epicenter and it would spread from there into Scotland and Birmingham. Why has nothing been done to up the processing capacity in these areas?
    If the logjam is in the labs then is that area specific? Is it not that they're trying to limit actual testing to the limits of what can be processed in labs. The lack of availability of tests in hotspot areas is probably not a coincidence. If you're trying to limit demand, the place to reduce numbers is in the areas where they are most needed.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Spencer's line was correct in my opinion
    - This is legislation we could introduce in extremis. We're not in that extremis and it harms our negotiations with the EU.

    We've been in extremis for the past 4 years.

    The EU have weaponised NI for 4 years. This is disarming the bomb.
    You're unhinged !
    Necessity is the mother of invention. The EU feel they have no necessity to compromise, they've turned NI into a bomb to hold over the UK to blackmail us into doing whatever they want.

    Enough is enough!
    Not quite there yet - with your spoof of SeanT's late-night bibulous rants - but a good effort.
    Yeah it's Sean vs Philip for unhinged award
    To be fair though I think I'm considered "unhinged" in how we should deal with the EU.

    Sean is unhinged on everything depending upon whether it is pre or post lagershed.
    Fair point. And I forgot HYUFD as well, who I think out-unhinges you to be honest.

    Sean definitely wins, as he changes with the weather and has multiple personalities.

    At least with you I have something to consistently argue against, for the most part. And you're a nice fellow - you've always risen above my rude posts in the past and I can only credit your character with that
  • 213 v 349

    Quite one sided.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,413

    Miliband 2.0?

    Blistering snip there on BBC News at 10.

    Worth catching the whole speech. He was rather good. Although I am a fan.
    Other, non natural supporters thought as much too.
  • What kind of majority do we forecast? I'm guessing about 50-60?

    It will probably be higher tonight simply because the vote on the Bob Neill amendment won't happen until next week (and also the DUP will vote in favour).
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
    She was appointed a week after the government first claimed to have met the 100k per day target in May.
    Eveb then that was to run the call centre rather than the testing regime. She only got put in charge of testing at a much later date.
    Yep, i think Philip is mixing up test and trace with track and trace? Track and trace was what she was in charge of (which was a shambles until somebody realised they had to involve local authorities.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Everyone I know,, out with this board, is talking about testing. The lack of it.
    Non-political people are hearing from their friends and neighbours.
    This has real cut through.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305610521840943106
    Journalists are now themselves hitting the no test wall, as their children get sent home from school:

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1305454068278665216


    Let's hope they don't allow whatever dead feline is about to drop from the skies to divert them from the shambles that is the Dido No Test and No track service.
    It has to be said, since she took over things have become terrible. Whoever was running it before was able to scale up from zero to 200k in a few months. Why did we change the management?!
    Eh?

    She was running it and was the one to scale it up.
    She was appointed a week after the government first claimed to have met the 100k per day target in May.
    That was to run the call centre rather than the testing regime. She only got out in charge of testing at a much later date.
    The press reporting at the time in May was that she was in charge of testing and the Test and Trace program.

    I thought the change in August was the merger to put PHE under her control too?
    The trace part of it, the test but was still under the same leadership that Hancock brought in from the private sector until late July. She took control of it all sometime after that and now PHE.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Its not useless, its a valuable check on the power of the executive. Quite a reasoned and reasonable proposal IMHO.

    And it means that any exercise of breaching international law is only done with the explicit consent of the elected Commons. Quite reasonable there too I think.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited September 2020
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305615117321723911

    I mean good for Lottie I suppose but I wonder why she was chosen for the front page - slow news day at the Fail and she's vaguely good looking?
  • Talking of Sean.

    Middle classes hit the bottle.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1305615117321723911/photo/1

This discussion has been closed.