There's a decent set of data in now. You can rank countries from "do nothing" (Brazil, or bits of the USA) via Sweden (not quite a lockdown), UK (just about a lockdown), France/Italy/Spain (strong lockdown) to China (weld the doors shut). The harder the lockdown, the quicker you come off the peak.
Whether that's desirable is another matter. The original theory of the Swedish model was that there's no cure or vaccine coming, we might as well stoically get on with most of us getting the virus. Whilst it might still come to that, that has an air of last resort, not first response.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
The Swedes have failed based on their own metrics.
I believe you posted a link about what their PM had said on this very subject.
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Yeah we get it. But what problems haven't they stored up for the future? We have fucked our society and our mental health well-being which will cost how many lives in the months and years ahead.
But this is the point, the Swedes went into a de facto lockdown.
Like us they've stored up a lot of problems.
Once Covid-19 arrived there were no good options, only a plethora of bad ones.
Funny how man poised to denouce "totalitarian behavior" attempted to sick the US military on peaceful protesters. Just like his role mode, Hoobert Hever.
I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG
***
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Though Sweden is still only 5th on Covid deaths per million and has suffered less economic damage than most locked down economies will have.
The most successful countries of all are those like South Korea which mass tested early and avoided mass Covid deaths and the economic damage of lockdown
If we hadn’t prioritised emptying the hospitals for the tsunami of cases that never came, by pushing so many patients untested back into care homes, our figures would be a whole lot better.
It's a terrible irony that one of the few areas in which the Government excelled was the construction of the Nightingale hospitals, which transpired to be almost completely useless.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
The Swedes have failed based on their own metrics.
I believe you posted a link about what their PM had said on this very subject.
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Let’s just accept whatever PMs say as the truth, and not listen to critical journalists you say? Don’t tell Scott
well.. we could always slag off TMay on here continually during her premiership, and then when it suits, and to attack Boris, use her as a beacon of truth
Swedish families are now maximally distanced in their sommarstugor, whereas a couple of weeks ago they were frantically celebrating midsummer. There may be a few bumps ahead on the Swedish 'plateau'.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
The Swedes have failed based on their own metrics.
I believe you posted a link about what their PM had said on this very subject.
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
That's a political statement, he's not allowed to be blithe about thousands of dead, so he has to say something like that.
It doesn't mean anything about Sweden's policy being good, bad, or mixed.
When is the inquiry due to report? Should make interesting reading.
Just because the Swede PM's statement is political, does NOT make it untrue.
There's a decent set of data in now. You can rank countries from "do nothing" (Brazil, or bits of the USA) via Sweden (not quite a lockdown), UK (just about a lockdown), France/Italy/Spain (strong lockdown) to China (weld the doors shut). The harder the lockdown, the quicker you come off the peak.
Whether that's desirable is another matter. The original theory of the Swedish model was that there's no cure or vaccine coming, we might as well stoically get on with most of us getting the virus. Whilst it might still come to that, that has an air of last resort, not first response.
Where does Belgium fit in there?
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
The Swedes have failed based on their own metrics.
I believe you posted a link about what their PM had said on this very subject.
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Yeah we get it. But what problems haven't they stored up for the future? We have fucked our society and our mental health well-being which will cost how many lives in the months and years ahead.
But this is the point, the Swedes went into a de facto lockdown.
Like us they've stored up a lot of problems.
Once Covid-19 arrived there were no good options, only a plethora of bad ones.
First, thanks to everyone for their comments on my thread from last evening. From what I could see, they were mostly positive and I take some small solace from that.
I will confess to a degree of overreach on the question of Unionism. Joseph Chamberlain opposed Irish Home Rule and that was the main reason he split from Gladstone and the Liberals in the mid 1880s and of course Churchill's opposition to any change in India's political status was a big part of his journey from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
The problem with trying to argue a reforming Unionism is that will never appeal to those who want rid of Unionism in its entirety. Devolution can go as far as it can and has but ultimately if the political objective is independence no compromise with the Unionist position is possible.
On the other side of Liberal Unionism, I maintain the view Cummings is a radical at heart and I suspect he and Johnson see the current administration as being as strong agents for socio-economic transformation as those of Asquith, Attlee and Thatcher in the 20th Century.
That may or may not sit well with traditional conservatives but history tells us radicalism has a finite shelf life and its last victim is often the party instigating he change. Asquith turned out to be the last Liberal PM with a majority, Attlee's radical policies led to 13 years of Conservative rule in the 50s and early 60s while Thatcher's radicalism ultimately led to a prolonged period of Labour rule from 1997-2010.
The question is whether the covid pandemic will ultimately blunt the radicalism of Johnson and Cummings as the economics won't match the aspiration.
I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG
***
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Though Sweden is still only 5th on Covid deaths per million and has suffered less economic damage than most locked down economies will have.
The most successful countries of all are those like South Korea which mass tested early and avoided mass Covid deaths and the economic damage of lockdown
If we hadn’t prioritised emptying the hospitals for the tsunami of cases that never came, by pushing so many patients untested back into care homes, our figures would be a whole lot better.
It's a terrible irony that one of the few areas in which the Government excelled was the construction of the Nightingale hospitals, which transpired to be almost completely useless.
(Hindsight being, of course, a wondrous thing.)
Does anyone know if the 'volunteer army' was ever used ?
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
The Swedes have failed based on their own metrics.
I believe you posted a link about what their PM had said on this very subject.
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Let’s just accept whatever PMs say as the truth, and not listen to critical journalists you say? Don’t tell Scott
well.. we could always slag off TMay on here continually during her premiership, and then when it suits, and to attack Boris, use her as a beacon of truth
When May was PM, she was responsible for her government - the good, bad & ugly. On the backbenches, not so much. THAT is the freedom of NOT being in HM govt.
AND because one criticizes a politico for what she said & did at one point in her career, mean that you must ALWAYS criticize her, regardless of what she is saying or doing now & in future?
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
There's a decent set of data in now. You can rank countries from "do nothing" (Brazil, or bits of the USA) via Sweden (not quite a lockdown), UK (just about a lockdown), France/Italy/Spain (strong lockdown) to China (weld the doors shut). The harder the lockdown, the quicker you come off the peak.
Whether that's desirable is another matter. The original theory of the Swedish model was that there's no cure or vaccine coming, we might as well stoically get on with most of us getting the virus. Whilst it might still come to that, that has an air of last resort, not first response.
So on the downwave of the graph, the lines for Belgium and France are pretty much parallel; their death rates fell at about the same rate. Faster than the UK and much faster than Sweden.
Which comes back to the other thing. The quicker a country puts adequate measures in place, and goes from an upswing to a downswing, the lower the total number of deaths. Belgium, like the UK, missed the opportunity to lock down earlier. Get in early enough, and you don't need much to keep the curve flat at a handful of deaths a day. Faff around at the start, and you need some combination of tedium and brutality to get the numbers back down again.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
The Swedes have failed based on their own metrics.
I believe you posted a link about what their PM had said on this very subject.
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
Yeah we get it. But what problems haven't they stored up for the future? We have fucked our society and our mental health well-being which will cost how many lives in the months and years ahead.
But this is the point, the Swedes went into a de facto lockdown.
Like us they've stored up a lot of problems.
Once Covid-19 arrived there were no good options, only a plethora of bad ones.
What is a de facto lockdown? Schools (U16) and nurseries have been open throughout; non-essential shops have been open throughout; public transport has been open throughout. Yes, lots of folk were furloughed or working from home, and upper high school and university students have had distance learning, but it doesn’t really feel like a “lockdown”. Life just carries on, except the economy is f*cked, although a little less f*cked than some other places.
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
But there's tons of studies that say the opposite: obesity is a factor
.I will confess to a degree of overreach on the question of Unionism. Joseph Chamberlain opposed Irish Home Rule and that was the main reason he split from Gladstone and the Liberals in the mid 1880s and of course Churchill's opposition to any change in India's political status was a big part of his journey from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
Sorry Stodge, but that comment on Churchill is still utter bollocks. Churchill was never a Liberal Unionist, to start with. He stood as an avowed Conservative in Oldham, before defecting to the Liberals in 1904.
Secondly, he left the Liberals long before any issues with India came to the fore. He broke with Asquith over WW1 and Lloyd George over Labour. Although he stood as a candidate in Leicester in 1922 with Liberal backing, he had effectively abandoned the party and by 1924 he was standing as an Independent with Unionist backing in Windsor, as an anti-Labour candidate. He was then appointed Chancellor and rejoined the Tories the following year. His ‘move away’ from Liberalism was due to his gradual realisation that Liberal economic theory had failed, and by 1929 he was willing to consider tariffs. It wasn’t until 1930-31 that his increasingly shrill and hysterical statements about Gandhi led Baldwin to conclude he had lost his mind and exclude him from the inner circle. It was after the end of his journey, not a big part of it.
As for Cummings being a radical, if a nihilist is a radical, he’s radical. But really he’s just a man of no sense and great arrogance failing spectacularly at anything more complex than empty sloganising.
As I said yesterday, it’s lovely to see people taking an interest in history, but a little research might have helped here.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
But there's tons of studies that say the opposite: obesity is a factor
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
Lower than China and S. Korea apparently.
I read that they were exposed to the 'Chinese strain', wiped it out, then got the 'European strain' from visitors from this continent bringing it back to E Asia.
I'd nominate *metabolic health*, not obesity as one key factor. Look it up on Youtube if interested, several doctors from UK/USA/Australia have talks on it.
Sunshine and vitamin D supplements in winter almost certainly are very important. The NHS is totally useless on vitamin D, except that their rote learning leads them to prescribe it once you already have some serious diseases, e.g. a friend with ulcerative colitis takes it.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
But there's tons of studies that say the opposite: obesity is a factor
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Am NOT a conservative OR a Conservative, and never will be.
However, one thing I do admire about the Conservative Party, is it's historic willingness to be led by the likes of Benjamin Disraeli, Margaret Thatcher and now Rishi Sunak - men and women who do NOT fit the traditional mold in some VERY obvious ways.
Labour does not and still cannot boast of the same willingness. Yes, they have been willing to change course from time to time. BUT always with parliamentarians who fit into the traditional mold as to background, gender and ethnicity.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
But there's tons of studies that say the opposite: obesity is a factor
That picture: on the one hand, the Chancellor can entreat us to go out and eat, drink and be merry *in moderation* and be taken seriously, because he is clearly not in need of a subscription to Slimming World or Weight Watchers. On the other hand, he is posing at a bar, and going up to a bar to order stuff will not be a thing again until about the year 2117.
A chance to take a quick look at some of the current European polling on this damp Friday evening before what is apparently being called "super Saturday" presumably because of the Derby and the Oaks rather than anything else.
In Italy, the latest Tecne poll has Lega down to 25.5% - they've been edging slowly down from the 30% or more levels they enjoyed earlier in the year but the winners haven't been the governing Social Democrats (20%) or M5S (15%) but the new Fdl party which is now third on 16%.
Fdl or Fratelli d'Italia (the Brothers of Italy) are a centre-right nationalist and Eurosceptic party. They look set to replace Forza as the main centre-right force at the next election.
In Spain, the latest GSOP poll has the PSOE on 29%, PP on 24% and United Podemos on 14% edging ahead of VOX on 13%. It's a strong poll for the governing coalition of PSOE and UP.
We don't normally discuss the politics of Luxembourg (and why not?). The governing coalition of Xavier's Bettel Democratic Party (DP), the Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) and the Greens has 31 seats in the 60 seat Chamber of Deputies.
The current Kantar poll has the opposition Christian Social People's Party (CSV) on 28% (-2), the DP on 21% (+4), the LSAP on 16% (+1) and the Greens on 13% (-3).
The next poll is due in 2023.
Finally, Iceland (where else?) which has an election for the 63-seat Althing next year. The Left-Greens under Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir (as we all knew) are on 15% and are in third place. Now, as we all know, the condition for the Progressives to join the Government after the 2017 election was that Jakobsdottir rather than Independence leader and former PM Bjarni Benediktsson but with that agreed the new Coalition had a clear majority with 39 seats.
In the current Gallup poll, the centre-right Independence Party has 24% but into second have come the opposition Social Democrats, who only won 3 seats last time on 6% of the vote but prospered when some of the left-wing elements of the Left-Greens couldn't stomach being in Govenrment with Independence and defected. The Social Democrats are on 16% with the governing Progressives and the opposition Reform Party on 11%.
I'm confused as well so someone else can pick up developments in Finland and North Macedonia next time.
I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG
***
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
It was obvious from the very beginning their strategy was turning into a mistake but the lockdown sceptics here said no Sweden is the way to go.
Funny thing is, arguably our strategy wasn’t ultimately that different from theirs. We had a loose lockdown, they had tightened regulations on gatherings short of a lockdown.
Which may explain why we both had so many deaths.
Poor Hitchens, Hames et al really didn't get their heads around the difference between a de jure lockdown and a de facto lockdown
Only Sweden and the USA have been more lenient than the height of the UK lockdown. Hundreds of millions of people elsewhere had to take advance permission from the police even to go out for food and medicines.
I think our actual lockdown strategy (when it arrived) was correct.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
Cannot argue that point. Except to say that conspiracy and incompetence can and look an awful lot alike.
Example - back in 2004 in the EXTREMELY close Gregoire versus Rossi WA governor's race, which featured original vote count, two recounts (one machine, one hand) and court contest, the cry was fraud, fraud, fraud! Yet the facts show that the REAL problem was mismanagement & incompetence. GOP pointed finger at serious problems with vote counting in Democratic areas, most notably King County (Seattle). Yet were strangely silent about problems in Republican areas.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Sorry Stodge, but that comment on Churchill is still utter bollocks. Churchill was never a Liberal Unionist, to start with. He stood as an avowed Conservative in Oldham, before defecting to the Liberals in 1904.
Secondly, he left the Liberals long before any issues with India came to the fore. He broke with Asquith over WW1 and Lloyd George over Labour. Although he stood as a candidate in Leicester in 1922 with Liberal backing, he had effectively abandoned the party and by 1924 he was standing as an Independent with Unionist backing in Windsor, as an anti-Labour candidate. He was then appointed Chancellor and rejoined the Tories the following year. His ‘move away’ from Liberalism was due to his gradual realisation that Liberal economic theory had failed, and by 1929 he was willing to consider tariffs. It wasn’t until 1930-31 that his increasingly shrill and hysterical statements about Gandhi led Baldwin to conclude he had lost his mind and exclude him from the inner circle. It was after the end of his journey, not a big part of it.
As for Cummings being a radical, if a nihilist is a radical, he’s radical. But really he’s just a man of no sense and great arrogance failing spectacularly at anything more complex than empty sloganising.
As I said yesterday, it’s lovely to see people taking an interest in history, but a little research might have helped here.
As far as Churchill is concerned, we'll have to agree to disagree. I accept Churchill was a complex political character and perhaps he defies any form of political pigeonholing. I think his influences may have included his father, Lord Randolph and well as others in and outside the Conservative Party.
In terms of Cummings, again, we'll have to agree to disagree. Radicals can often be seen as nihilists to those with a vested interest in the existing order. Indeed, Thatcher was at times scornful of traditional British institutions which she saw as no longer fit for purpose and in need of reform.
I do think Cummings and Johnson see a country in need of transformation after a decade of perhaps less than stellar Conservative rule (strongly aided by the lack of a viable centre-left alternative).
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Interesting to see that that the Middle East has an obesity problem.
Big obesity problem in the Gulf states, among local populations. They’ve gone in two or three generations from living in tents to driving Lamborghinis, things like health education are only now becoming a priority for governments.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
But there's tons of studies that say the opposite: obesity is a factor
That picture: on the one hand, the Chancellor can entreat us to go out and eat, drink and be merry *in moderation* and be taken seriously, because he is clearly not in need of a subscription to Slimming World or Weight Watchers. On the other hand, he is posing at a bar, and going up to a bar to order stuff will not be a thing again until about the year 2117.
Perhaps table service in bars will become the norm, we seem ok with it when we go on holiday. Might make people a bit more civilised
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
Sorry Stodge, but that comment on Churchill is still utter bollocks. Churchill was never a Liberal Unionist, to start with. He stood as an avowed Conservative in Oldham, before defecting to the Liberals in 1904.
Secondly, he left the Liberals long before any issues with India came to the fore. He broke with Asquith over WW1 and Lloyd George over Labour. Although he stood as a candidate in Leicester in 1922 with Liberal backing, he had effectively abandoned the party and by 1924 he was standing as an Independent with Unionist backing in Windsor, as an anti-Labour candidate. He was then appointed Chancellor and rejoined the Tories the following year. His ‘move away’ from Liberalism was due to his gradual realisation that Liberal economic theory had failed, and by 1929 he was willing to consider tariffs. It wasn’t until 1930-31 that his increasingly shrill and hysterical statements about Gandhi led Baldwin to conclude he had lost his mind and exclude him from the inner circle. It was after the end of his journey, not a big part of it.
As for Cummings being a radical, if a nihilist is a radical, he’s radical. But really he’s just a man of no sense and great arrogance failing spectacularly at anything more complex than empty sloganising.
As I said yesterday, it’s lovely to see people taking an interest in history, but a little research might have helped here.
As far as Churchill is concerned, we'll have to agree to disagree. I accept Churchill was a complex political character and perhaps he defies any form of political pigeonholing. I think his influences may have included his father, Lord Randolph and well as others in and outside the Conservative Party.
In terms of Cummings, again, we'll have to agree to disagree. Radicals can often be seen as nihilists to those with a vested interest in the existing order. Indeed, Thatcher was at times scornful of traditional British institutions which she saw as no longer fit for purpose and in need of reform.
I do think Cummings and Johnson see a country in need of transformation after a decade of perhaps less than stellar Conservative rule (strongly aided by the lack of a viable centre-left alternative).
Re: Winston Churchill, he was never a Liberal Unionist as term was used & understood in his time. He was a Conservative (like daddy) until he ratted to the Liberals, and then (after transitional period) re-ratted.
And certainly was NOT his (reactionary) views on India that differentiated him from post-WWI Liberals. Note that his losing fight against eventual independence for the sub-continent was waged, NOT against Liberals or even Labour, but against the leadership of the CONSERVATIVE Party,
What really drove him rightward, was his hatred & fear of Communism. For him, unlike for Asquith & Lloyd George, allowing the Labour Party to assume power opened the door to a Red Dawn (a la the Zinoviev Letter).
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
No fat people in New Zealand. Not a one....
Much.
However important or otherwise obesity transpires to be, it won't be the only determining factor.
As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.
Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:
* bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason * organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections * slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country * persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border
And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
Tip of the iceberg. BTW, the ones you know, are they the kind that might have been mixed up in the root of the scandal? OR people who Epstein just happened to know in some other context?
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
Tip of the iceberg. BTW, the ones you know, are they the kind that might have been mixed up in the root of the scandal? OR people who Epstein just happened to know in some other context?
No, they are definitely not the sort to be involved in any way. Apparently some of the people in this book never even met Epstein, and are unsure why they appear. Though it is apparently a legitimate document
It does give a sense of how many eminent people he knew, or blackmailed, and why there might be intense pressure to keep him quiet. Somehow
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
No fat people in New Zealand. Not a one....
Much.
However important or otherwise obesity transpires to be, it won't be the only determining factor.
As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.
Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:
* bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason * organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections * slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country * persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border
And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
Why was Vietnam so successful in dealing with the virus? It had asolutely no advantages and many disadvantages to cope with.
I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG
***
Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.
"We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.
"Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."
It was obvious from the very beginning their strategy was turning into a mistake but the lockdown sceptics here said no Sweden is the way to go.
Funny thing is, arguably our strategy wasn’t ultimately that different from theirs. We had a loose lockdown, they had tightened regulations on gatherings short of a lockdown.
Which may explain why we both had so many deaths.
Poor Hitchens, Hames et al really didn't get their heads around the difference between a de jure lockdown and a de facto lockdown
Only Sweden and the USA have been more lenient than the height of the UK lockdown. Hundreds of millions of people elsewhere had to take advance permission from the police even to go out for food and medicines.
Rubbish lots of countries have had less severe lockdowns than the UK. Germany being just one of them.
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
Do you think the pandemic is easier for left wingers as they're naturally more willing to exert state authority than right wingers ?
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
Do you think the pandemic is easier for left wingers as they're naturally more willing to exert state authority than right wingers ?
Yes, and they also don't understand and/or don't care how wealth is created, and therefore how bad a lockdown can be, for business.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I am not sure your obesity theory works. From the link you posted, there are 32 countries with worse obesity levels than the UK (including New Zealand and Australia surprisingly enough), none of which have higher covid death levels than the UK.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
But there's tons of studies that say the opposite: obesity is a factor
That picture: on the one hand, the Chancellor can entreat us to go out and eat, drink and be merry *in moderation* and be taken seriously, because he is clearly not in need of a subscription to Slimming World or Weight Watchers. On the other hand, he is posing at a bar, and going up to a bar to order stuff will not be a thing again until about the year 2117.
Perhaps table service in bars will become the norm, we seem ok with it when we go on holiday. Might make people a bit more civilised
Good point actually. It works for most restaurants, after all. The circumstances of the pandemic might also help to encourage better manners: if patrons at a particular table are getting a bit loud then staff are going to have to have gentle words with them - it being important that customers are reasonably well-behaved, and therefore observe the required distancing rules and refrain from vigorous exhalation. And, should this be ineffective, troublemakers are presumably more likely to be instructed to sling their hooks before things can get properly out of hand.
Years after Alfred Dreyfus was exonerated of false charges of having been a German spy, he was playing a game of cards with some acquaintances.
One of his fellow card players happened to mention a current case, where someone was being accused of a criminal conspiracy based on circumstantial evidence.
Then he suddenly realized with whom he was playing, and began apologizing profusely. Of course, he said, we shouldn't jump to conclusions in the absence of overwhelming proof.
"I don't know," replied Dreyfus, "where there's smoke, there's fire!"
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
A chance to take a quick look at some of the current European polling on this damp Friday evening before what is apparently being called "super Saturday" presumably because of the Derby and the Oaks rather than anything else.
In Italy, the latest Tecne poll has Lega down to 25.5% - they've been edging slowly down from the 30% or more levels they enjoyed earlier in the year but the winners haven't been the governing Social Democrats (20%) or M5S (15%) but the new Fdl party which is now third on 16%.
Fdl or Fratelli d'Italia (the Brothers of Italy) are a centre-right nationalist and Eurosceptic party. They look set to replace Forza as the main centre-right force at the next election.
In Spain, the latest GSOP poll has the PSOE on 29%, PP on 24% and United Podemos on 14% edging ahead of VOX on 13%. It's a strong poll for the governing coalition of PSOE and UP.
We don't normally discuss the politics of Luxembourg (and why not?). The governing coalition of Xavier's Bettel Democratic Party (DP), the Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) and the Greens has 31 seats in the 60 seat Chamber of Deputies.
The current Kantar poll has the opposition Christian Social People's Party (CSV) on 28% (-2), the DP on 21% (+4), the LSAP on 16% (+1) and the Greens on 13% (-3).
The next poll is due in 2023.
Finally, Iceland (where else?) which has an election for the 63-seat Althing next year. The Left-Greens under Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir (as we all knew) are on 15% and are in third place. Now, as we all know, the condition for the Progressives to join the Government after the 2017 election was that Jakobsdottir rather than Independence leader and former PM Bjarni Benediktsson but with that agreed the new Coalition had a clear majority with 39 seats.
In the current Gallup poll, the centre-right Independence Party has 24% but into second have come the opposition Social Democrats, who only won 3 seats last time on 6% of the vote but prospered when some of the left-wing elements of the Left-Greens couldn't stomach being in Govenrment with Independence and defected. The Social Democrats are on 16% with the governing Progressives and the opposition Reform Party on 11%.
I'm confused as well so someone else can pick up developments in Finland and North Macedonia next time.
Could someone explain to me this "centre-right" tag that seems to get applied to borderline racist parties? I'm seeing this a lot, not just in this comment. To me "centre-right" would apply to someone like Merkel, explicitly in contrast to outfits such as Fratelli d'Italia, who are former and still not entirely disguised fascists.
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
A chance to take a quick look at some of the current European polling on this damp Friday evening before what is apparently being called "super Saturday" presumably because of the Derby and the Oaks rather than anything else.
In Italy, the latest Tecne poll has Lega down to 25.5% - they've been edging slowly down from the 30% or more levels they enjoyed earlier in the year but the winners haven't been the governing Social Democrats (20%) or M5S (15%) but the new Fdl party which is now third on 16%.
Fdl or Fratelli d'Italia (the Brothers of Italy) are a centre-right nationalist and Eurosceptic party. They look set to replace Forza as the main centre-right force at the next election.
In Spain, the latest GSOP poll has the PSOE on 29%, PP on 24% and United Podemos on 14% edging ahead of VOX on 13%. It's a strong poll for the governing coalition of PSOE and UP.
We don't normally discuss the politics of Luxembourg (and why not?). The governing coalition of Xavier's Bettel Democratic Party (DP), the Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) and the Greens has 31 seats in the 60 seat Chamber of Deputies.
The current Kantar poll has the opposition Christian Social People's Party (CSV) on 28% (-2), the DP on 21% (+4), the LSAP on 16% (+1) and the Greens on 13% (-3).
The next poll is due in 2023.
Finally, Iceland (where else?) which has an election for the 63-seat Althing next year. The Left-Greens under Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir (as we all knew) are on 15% and are in third place. Now, as we all know, the condition for the Progressives to join the Government after the 2017 election was that Jakobsdottir rather than Independence leader and former PM Bjarni Benediktsson but with that agreed the new Coalition had a clear majority with 39 seats.
In the current Gallup poll, the centre-right Independence Party has 24% but into second have come the opposition Social Democrats, who only won 3 seats last time on 6% of the vote but prospered when some of the left-wing elements of the Left-Greens couldn't stomach being in Govenrment with Independence and defected. The Social Democrats are on 16% with the governing Progressives and the opposition Reform Party on 11%.
I'm confused as well so someone else can pick up developments in Finland and North Macedonia next time.
Great overview, thanks! I can do Finland - the governing coalition (from liberals to far left) is prospering. As usual in coalitions, the largest party (the social democrats) are doing best out of it, but all its allies are also doing fairly well. The opposition is spliyt between moderate conservative and the Finns Party (former True Fins) with 18% each.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
Do you think the pandemic is easier for left wingers as they're naturally more willing to exert state authority than right wingers ?
100%
It’s just a classic left vs right argument with a new topic. Left wingers think bad things happen because the state hasn’t done enough whilst right wingers think the bad things have happened because the state interfered in the first place
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Interesting to see that that the Middle East has an obesity problem.
Big obesity problem in the Gulf states, among local populations. They’ve gone in two or three generations from living in tents to driving Lamborghinis, things like health education are only now becoming a priority for governments.
I can understand the Gulf states but Jordan and Egypt have even higher obesity.
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
I don't see how obesity can not be a factor, though there will be many other factors
You were never going to make it as a scientist were you?
I confess that was a fairly random series of citations, tho I stand by the general principle
As a general principle, yes. But as a shrewd observer was pointing out in January and February, this virus grows massively in the early days, when it's uncontrolled. Doubling in 3-4 days, more than tenfold in a fortnight. That sort of difference swamps everything else.
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
Do you think the pandemic is easier for left wingers as they're naturally more willing to exert state authority than right wingers ?
I hadn't thought of it like that, but you could be right.
My own view is Mr Johnson is personally unsuited to managing the pandemic for the reason you suggest. I believe Mrs May (although I have no evidence to confirm this) would have been far more decisive (yes I know what I have just written) were she still PM.
Will Trumpsky quit? Personally think answer is NO.
However, it is true that he's cut and run out of just about EVERYBODY that's trusted him with their money, malt or maidservant.
Just ask Ivana & Marla & residents of Atlantic City & hordes of less-than-satisfied investors & business partners.
SO cannot be ruled out. Except that his all-consuming hubris will make him believe he can rekindle the magic and fool the American people one more time.
I think Ivana did pretty well didn't she? She seems to be ok with him.
They speak on the phone once a fortnight apparently, and he offered to make her the US ambassador to the Czech Republic, so it sounds pretty amicable. But my point was really that she got a massive bundle in the divorce.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
It certainly undermines TSE's bald assertion that the Swedes were definitely WRONG
All we can say is: we don't know yet, and maybe never will
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Interesting to see that that the Middle East has an obesity problem.
Big obesity problem in the Gulf states, among local populations. They’ve gone in two or three generations from living in tents to driving Lamborghinis, things like health education are only now becoming a priority for governments.
I can understand the Gulf states but Jordan and Egypt have even higher obesity.
They have gone from really healthy, classic Arab diets to utter junk - processed food, sweets. cakes, burgers, colas and sodas - in about one generation
Go into any little shop in Cairo and they sell this crap
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
"Finns Party" - years ago when I attended a summer language school in Hungary that had a large Finnish contingent, the phrase "Finn Party" meant a gathering hosted by the sons & daughters of Suomi - which had the tendency to conclude with the hosts throwing punches, chairs, etc. at each other. Best to depart BEFORE midnight!
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
No fat people in New Zealand. Not a one....
Much.
However important or otherwise obesity transpires to be, it won't be the only determining factor.
As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.
Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:
* bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason * organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections * slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country * persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border
And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
Why was Vietnam so successful in dealing with the virus? It had asolutely no advantages and many disadvantages to cope with.
Well. They could organise a peasant army to defeat the most powerful military in history...So you know virus, meh.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
I expect that tweet will look particularly stupid in a couple of weeks time.
I had a very surprising conversation with the head of R&D at one of the top global pharmaceutical companies today.
He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.
As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.
Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests
(My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
.I will confess to a degree of overreach on the question of Unionism. Joseph Chamberlain opposed Irish Home Rule and that was the main reason he split from Gladstone and the Liberals in the mid 1880s and of course Churchill's opposition to any change in India's political status was a big part of his journey from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
Sorry Stodge, but that comment on Churchill is still utter bollocks. Churchill was never a Liberal Unionist, to start with. He stood as an avowed Conservative in Oldham, before defecting to the Liberals in 1904.
Secondly, he left the Liberals long before any issues with India came to the fore. He broke with Asquith over WW1 and Lloyd George over Labour. Although he stood as a candidate in Leicester in 1922 with Liberal backing, he had effectively abandoned the party and by 1924 he was standing as an Independent with Unionist backing in Windsor, as an anti-Labour candidate. He was then appointed Chancellor and rejoined the Tories the following year. His ‘move away’ from Liberalism was due to his gradual realisation that Liberal economic theory had failed, and by 1929 he was willing to consider tariffs. It wasn’t until 1930-31 that his increasingly shrill and hysterical statements about Gandhi led Baldwin to conclude he had lost his mind and exclude him from the inner circle. It was after the end of his journey, not a big part of it.
As for Cummings being a radical, if a nihilist is a radical, he’s radical. But really he’s just a man of no sense and great arrogance failing spectacularly at anything more complex than empty sloganising.
As I said yesterday, it’s lovely to see people taking an interest in history, but a little research might have helped here.
A minor point of correction. In 1922 Churchill was actually defeated at Dundee as a Coalition Liberal. He stood the following year as Liberal candidate for Leicester - and lost again.
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
No fat people in New Zealand. Not a one....
Much.
However important or otherwise obesity transpires to be, it won't be the only determining factor.
As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.
Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:
* bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason * organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections * slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country * persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border
And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
Why was Vietnam so successful in dealing with the virus? It had asolutely no advantages and many disadvantages to cope with.
Seems basically to boil down to (1) experience of previous epidemics in SE Asia, (2) a totalitarian and highly intrusive state with the ability to implement surveillance and quarantine on a huge scale at the drop of a hat, and (3) related to the first point, a massive and very rapid reaction to the outbreak in Wuhan.
If Boris Johnson had sealed the borders to foreigners in January, shut down the schools, encircled every borough, town or village with a Covid case with armed guards, until there were no cases left in the quarantine zone and hadn't been for a fortnight, and made all British citizens re-entering the country spend two weeks in an emergency tent city on Salisbury Plain with three portaloos and one shower to every 500 detainees, then we might have done as well as Vietnam. Equally, Parliament might have revolted en masse and passed a bill declaring him mad.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
To be honest I am not sure about this conversation at all
However, I am sure Mike will comment if he has concerns
No one is accusing anyone of anything. The little black book exists, it is in the public domain.
Speaking of Black Books, perhaps the most notorious was that published under the name of Noel Pemberton Billing (sometime MP) a stormy petrel if there ever was one. Here is a taste (as per NPB's wiki bio)
". . . the Germans were blackmailing "47,000 highly placed British perverts" to "propagate evils which all decent men thought had perished in Sodom and Lesbia." The names were said to be inscribed in the "Berlin Black Book" of the Mbret of Albania. The contents of this book revealed that the Germans planned on "exterminating the manhood of Britain" by luring men into homosexuality and paedophilia.
"Even to loiter in the streets was not immune. Meretricious agents of the Kaiser were stationed at such places as Marble Arch and Hyde Park Corner. In this black book of sin details were given of the unnatural defloration of children ... wives of men in supreme positions were entangled. In Lesbian ecstasy the most sacred secrets of the state were threatened".
"[NPB] publicly attacked Margot Asquith, wife of the prime minister, hinting that she was caught up in this. He also targeted members of the circle around Robbie Ross, the literary executor of Oscar Wilde, who supported and introduced homosexual poets and writers.
An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam
Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
No fat people in New Zealand. Not a one....
Much.
However important or otherwise obesity transpires to be, it won't be the only determining factor.
As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.
Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:
* bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason * organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections * slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country * persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border
And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
Why was Vietnam so successful in dealing with the virus? It had asolutely no advantages and many disadvantages to cope with.
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
Do you think the pandemic is easier for left wingers as they're naturally more willing to exert state authority than right wingers ?
Yes, and they also don't understand and/or don't care how wealth is created, and therefore how bad a lockdown can be, for business.
I think it's probably easier for right wingers because they can just blame the victims and don't really care anyway as long as nobody they know catches it.
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Years after Alfred Dreyfus was exonerated of false charges of having been a German spy, he was playing a game of cards with some acquaintances.
One of his fellow card players happened to mention a current case, where someone was being accused of a criminal conspiracy based on circumstantial evidence.
Then he suddenly realized with whom he was playing, and began apologizing profusely. Of course, he said, we shouldn't jump to conclusions in the absence of overwhelming proof.
"I don't know," replied Dreyfus, "where there's smoke, there's fire!"
Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?
No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
Yes, maybe.
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I'm surprised that the media reporting this are not more agnostic. They always assert that he committed suicide.
Have you ever seen Epstein's notorious little black book: the list of all his contacts?
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
To be honest I am not sure about this conversation at all
However, I am sure Mike will comment if he has concerns
No accusation has been made on this thread about anyone, quite the opposite. The book is in the public diomain and is deemed factual, it doesn't imply guilt or innocence to any named.
One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
To be fair you are surely not suggesting the candle virgil at no 10 tomorrow night on behalf of the nation remembering those who have lost their lives is empty virtue signalling
I could believe it of Scott but not yourself to be honest
Comments
Like us they've stored up a lot of problems.
Once Covid-19 arrived there were no good options, only a plethora of bad ones.
(Hindsight being, of course, a wondrous thing.)
Just because the Swede PM's statement is political, does NOT make it untrue.
It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.
Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.
First, thanks to everyone for their comments on my thread from last evening. From what I could see, they were mostly positive and I take some small solace from that.
I will confess to a degree of overreach on the question of Unionism. Joseph Chamberlain opposed Irish Home Rule and that was the main reason he split from Gladstone and the Liberals in the mid 1880s and of course Churchill's opposition to any change in India's political status was a big part of his journey from the Liberals to the Conservatives.
The problem with trying to argue a reforming Unionism is that will never appeal to those who want rid of Unionism in its entirety. Devolution can go as far as it can and has but ultimately if the political objective is independence no compromise with the Unionist position is possible.
On the other side of Liberal Unionism, I maintain the view Cummings is a radical at heart and I suspect he and Johnson see the current administration as being as strong agents for socio-economic transformation as those of Asquith, Attlee and Thatcher in the 20th Century.
That may or may not sit well with traditional conservatives but history tells us radicalism has a finite shelf life and its last victim is often the party instigating he change. Asquith turned out to be the last Liberal PM with a majority, Attlee's radical policies led to 13 years of Conservative rule in the 50s and early 60s while Thatcher's radicalism ultimately led to a prolonged period of Labour rule from 1997-2010.
The question is whether the covid pandemic will ultimately blunt the radicalism of Johnson and Cummings as the economics won't match the aspiration.
Wasn't it meant to be 750k ?
AND because one criticizes a politico for what she said & did at one point in her career, mean that you must ALWAYS criticize her, regardless of what she is saying or doing now & in future?
"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines." - Ralph Waldo Emerson
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=bel&areas=fra&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=deaths
So on the downwave of the graph, the lines for Belgium and France are pretty much parallel; their death rates fell at about the same rate. Faster than the UK and much faster than Sweden.
Which comes back to the other thing. The quicker a country puts adequate measures in place, and goes from an upswing to a downswing, the lower the total number of deaths. Belgium, like the UK, missed the opportunity to lock down earlier. Get in early enough, and you don't need much to keep the curve flat at a handful of deaths a day. Faff around at the start, and you need some combination of tedium and brutality to get the numbers back down again.
The latest ICNARC report on UK covid cases also seems to indicate that obesity levels in Covid patients in ICUs broadly reflects levels in the wider public; i.e. there does not appear to be a strong increased risk of ending up in ICU with Covid if you are obese.
"Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.
The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/similar-to-adults-obesity-raises-kids-odds-for-severe-covid-19-20200603
Secondly, he left the Liberals long before any issues with India came to the fore. He broke with Asquith over WW1 and Lloyd George over Labour. Although he stood as a candidate in Leicester in 1922 with Liberal backing, he had effectively abandoned the party and by 1924 he was standing as an Independent with Unionist backing in Windsor, as an anti-Labour candidate. He was then appointed Chancellor and rejoined the Tories the following year. His ‘move away’ from Liberalism was due to his gradual realisation that Liberal economic theory had failed, and by 1929 he was willing to consider tariffs. It wasn’t until 1930-31 that his increasingly shrill and hysterical statements about Gandhi led Baldwin to conclude he had lost his mind and exclude him from the inner circle. It was after the end of his journey, not a big part of it.
As for Cummings being a radical, if a nihilist is a radical, he’s radical. But really he’s just a man of no sense and great arrogance failing spectacularly at anything more complex than empty sloganising.
As I said yesterday, it’s lovely to see people taking an interest in history, but a little research might have helped here.
Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.
Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.
Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/1279146854819782656?s=20
I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
It has to be.
If you are obese you have a weaker immune system, so you are more likely to catch covid
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22414338/
Obesity also makes you weaker in general, so if you do catch it you are more likely to get really sick?
Obesity also causes lung problems, and covid-19 attacks the lungs
https://mrmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40248-016-0066-z#:~:text=Obesity causes mechanical compression of,and reduces respiratory muscle strength.
I don't see how obesity can not be a factor, though there will be many other factors
Perhaps I am overly suspicious after Epstein's "suicide". I just don't believe he killed himself. His death was far too convenient for some very powerful people
I read that they were exposed to the 'Chinese strain', wiped it out, then got the 'European strain' from visitors from this continent bringing it back to E Asia.
I'd nominate *metabolic health*, not obesity as one key factor. Look it up on Youtube if interested, several doctors from UK/USA/Australia have talks on it.
Sunshine and vitamin D supplements in winter almost certainly are very important. The NHS is totally useless on vitamin D, except that their rote learning leads them to prescribe it once you already have some serious diseases, e.g. a friend with ulcerative colitis takes it.
I might just do that.
However, one thing I do admire about the Conservative Party, is it's historic willingness to be led by the likes of Benjamin Disraeli, Margaret Thatcher and now Rishi Sunak - men and women who do NOT fit the traditional mold in some VERY obvious ways.
Labour does not and still cannot boast of the same willingness. Yes, they have been willing to change course from time to time. BUT always with parliamentarians who fit into the traditional mold as to background, gender and ethnicity.
I think some South Pacific islands are the very worst.
Much.
In Italy, the latest Tecne poll has Lega down to 25.5% - they've been edging slowly down from the 30% or more levels they enjoyed earlier in the year but the winners haven't been the governing Social Democrats (20%) or M5S (15%) but the new Fdl party which is now third on 16%.
Fdl or Fratelli d'Italia (the Brothers of Italy) are a centre-right nationalist and Eurosceptic party. They look set to replace Forza as the main centre-right force at the next election.
In Spain, the latest GSOP poll has the PSOE on 29%, PP on 24% and United Podemos on 14% edging ahead of VOX on 13%. It's a strong poll for the governing coalition of PSOE and UP.
We don't normally discuss the politics of Luxembourg (and why not?). The governing coalition of Xavier's Bettel Democratic Party (DP), the Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) and the Greens has 31 seats in the 60 seat Chamber of Deputies.
The current Kantar poll has the opposition Christian Social People's Party (CSV) on 28% (-2), the DP on 21% (+4), the LSAP on 16% (+1) and the Greens on 13% (-3).
The next poll is due in 2023.
Finally, Iceland (where else?) which has an election for the 63-seat Althing next year. The Left-Greens under Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir (as we all knew) are on 15% and are in third place. Now, as we all know, the condition for the Progressives to join the Government after the 2017 election was that Jakobsdottir rather than Independence leader and former PM Bjarni Benediktsson but with that agreed the new Coalition had a clear majority with 39 seats.
In the current Gallup poll, the centre-right Independence Party has 24% but into second have come the opposition Social Democrats, who only won 3 seats last time on 6% of the vote but prospered when some of the left-wing elements of the Left-Greens couldn't stomach being in Govenrment with Independence and defected. The Social Democrats are on 16% with the governing Progressives and the opposition Reform Party on 11%.
I'm confused as well so someone else can pick up developments in Finland and North Macedonia next time.
Example - back in 2004 in the EXTREMELY close Gregoire versus Rossi WA governor's race, which featured original vote count, two recounts (one machine, one hand) and court contest, the cry was fraud, fraud, fraud! Yet the facts show that the REAL problem was mismanagement & incompetence. GOP pointed finger at serious problems with vote counting in Democratic areas, most notably King County (Seattle). Yet were strangely silent about problems in Republican areas.
Just saying.
In terms of Cummings, again, we'll have to agree to disagree. Radicals can often be seen as nihilists to those with a vested interest in the existing order. Indeed, Thatcher was at times scornful of traditional British institutions which she saw as no longer fit for purpose and in need of reform.
I do think Cummings and Johnson see a country in need of transformation after a decade of perhaps less than stellar Conservative rule (strongly aided by the lack of a viable centre-left alternative).
There is a large number of very prominent Brits, whose names will be familiar here. I personally know three or four of these people.
https://www.scribd.com/doc/257106594/JEs-LBB?campaign=VigLink&ad_group=xxc1xx&source=hp_affiliate&medium=affiliate&campaign=VigLink&ad_group=xxc1xx&source=hp_affiliate&medium=affiliate
Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/07/disney-plus-hamilton-2020/613834/
Definitely worth paying for a temporary subscription to watch, though the sound quality, particularly some of the individual miking, is a bit off.
Renée Goldsberry is superb.
And certainly was NOT his (reactionary) views on India that differentiated him from post-WWI Liberals. Note that his losing fight against eventual independence for the sub-continent was waged, NOT against Liberals or even Labour, but against the leadership of the CONSERVATIVE Party,
What really drove him rightward, was his hatred & fear of Communism. For him, unlike for Asquith & Lloyd George, allowing the Labour Party to assume power opened the door to a Red Dawn (a la the Zinoviev Letter).
As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.
Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:
* bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason
* organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections
* slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country
* persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border
And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
It does give a sense of how many eminent people he knew, or blackmailed, and why there might be intense pressure to keep him quiet. Somehow
Rubbish lots of countries have had less severe lockdowns than the UK. Germany being just one of them.
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1279097899343896576
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1279098155624169473
Years after Alfred Dreyfus was exonerated of false charges of having been a German spy, he was playing a game of cards with some acquaintances.
One of his fellow card players happened to mention a current case, where someone was being accused of a criminal conspiracy based on circumstantial evidence.
Then he suddenly realized with whom he was playing, and began apologizing profusely. Of course, he said, we shouldn't jump to conclusions in the absence of overwhelming proof.
"I don't know," replied Dreyfus, "where there's smoke, there's fire!"
"
One one lives in hope!
Bryn Cegin was opened in 1999 following a consultation that suggested it was needed.
Senedd member Siân Gwenllian dubbed the matter "a scandal" and called for an independent investigation into the spending.
The Welsh Government said it was working with Gwynedd Council to "attract businesses to the site."
The figures came to light following a BBC Wales Freedom of Information about the site, just outside of Bangor.
The Welsh Government did not comment on what the money had been spent on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53275769
As I said early, will end in tears.
Michael Heseltine....
It’s just a classic left vs right argument with a new topic. Left wingers think bad things happen because the state hasn’t done enough whilst right wingers think the bad things have happened because the state interfered in the first place
My own view is Mr Johnson is personally unsuited to managing the pandemic for the reason you suggest. I believe Mrs May (although I have no evidence to confirm this) would have been far more decisive (yes I know what I have just written) were she still PM.
However, I am sure Mike will comment if he has concerns
Go into any little shop in Cairo and they sell this crap
It could be very interesting and go either way
I reserve judgment
I suspect most are innocent. I can't see Jeff needing to procure young girls for the former Member for Hartlepool.
He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.
As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.
Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests
(My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52628283
Seems basically to boil down to (1) experience of previous epidemics in SE Asia, (2) a totalitarian and highly intrusive state with the ability to implement surveillance and quarantine on a huge scale at the drop of a hat, and (3) related to the first point, a massive and very rapid reaction to the outbreak in Wuhan.
If Boris Johnson had sealed the borders to foreigners in January, shut down the schools, encircled every borough, town or village with a Covid case with armed guards, until there were no cases left in the quarantine zone and hadn't been for a fortnight, and made all British citizens re-entering the country spend two weeks in an emergency tent city on Salisbury Plain with three portaloos and one shower to every 500 detainees, then we might have done as well as Vietnam. Equally, Parliament might have revolted en masse and passed a bill declaring him mad.
". . . the Germans were blackmailing "47,000 highly placed British perverts" to "propagate evils which all decent men thought had perished in Sodom and Lesbia." The names were said to be inscribed in the "Berlin Black Book" of the Mbret of Albania. The contents of this book revealed that the Germans planned on "exterminating the manhood of Britain" by luring men into homosexuality and paedophilia.
"Even to loiter in the streets was not immune. Meretricious agents of the Kaiser were stationed at such places as Marble Arch and Hyde Park Corner. In this black book of sin details were given of the unnatural defloration of children ... wives of men in supreme positions were entangled. In Lesbian ecstasy the most sacred secrets of the state were threatened".
"[NPB] publicly attacked Margot Asquith, wife of the prime minister, hinting that she was caught up in this. He also targeted members of the circle around Robbie Ross, the literary executor of Oscar Wilde, who supported and introduced homosexual poets and writers.
Look at who got the trips to the island.
The FBI will deem anyone to be of interest.
I could believe it of Scott but not yourself to be honest