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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Keiran Pedley Ipsos-MORI podcast: Assessing the Cons

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,525
    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?

    Did you miss that the FBI themselves say they’ve been watching her for ages?
    They released an extraordinary statement about how gorgeous her soft furnishings were.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,266
    nico67 said:

    Trump is a stain on humanity . Trying to foster further division. Anything as long as it gets him re-elected , it’s a scorched earth policy .

    Trump is what you get when mainstream politicians get detached from the concerns of ordinary voters.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137
    dixiedean said:

    An island nation, Japan, with *the oldest population in the world*, has 8 deaths per million instead of the UK's 650. Sweden is at 300-400 I think.

    It did sensible things and didn't deprive people of their liberty. England is sometimes claimed to be the country which takes liberty most seriously. Ha ha.

    Japan may have come closest to what we wanted, i.e. to spread the virus among the young and healthy who'd not come to any harm and protect the vulnerable. The UK apparently did the opposite, by imprisoning the young and healthy and letting the virus into hospitals, doctors' surgeries and care homes. We'll have to wait and see.

    It's going to take a long time to get any solid idea of who had the right approach to tackling the virus and who simply got lucky. Japan may have been exposed to a less lethal strain of Covid-19. Then again...
    LadyG said:

    I made this point recently: we might find out one day that a biggest determinant of who did well, and who did badly, is something as simple as obesity. That would explain East Asian success, especially in Vietnam

    https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels/

    Using the WHO criteria Japan has the lowest rate of obesity among the OECD member countries at 3.2%.
    No fat people in New Zealand. Not a one....

    Much.
    However important or otherwise obesity transpires to be, it won't be the only determining factor.

    As we all know, New Zealand is a relatively small country, with a low overall population density and is one of the most isolated states on Earth - a remote oceanic archipelago and nobody's idea of a major international air transit hub. That gave it the chance to eliminate the virus with swift and crushing action; Jacinda Ardern picked up that ball and ran with it.

    Britain would've required exceptional luck and foresight to replicate those efforts. By the latest when it became obvious that the disease was starting to spread in Northern Italy, we would probably have had to do all of the following:

    * bar entry to the country to passport holders from every other country in the world (excluding the Irish; though also see below,) and ban our own citizens from travelling abroad for any reason
    * organise a truly vast repatriation exercise to get all our holidaymakers back again, before they had the chance to pick it up in Italian ski resorts and on Spanish beach holidays and bring back hundreds or thousands of separate infections
    * slam on a nationwide lockdown to wipe out any isolated cases already in the country
    * persuade the Irish Government to do all the same things in lockstep, to avoid infiltration of the disease through the Northern Irish border

    And even then considerable problems would've remained. A significant fraction of our trade and food supply is dependent on road transport crossing to and from the near continent on ferries and via the tunnel - all of those truck drivers would have to have been given continued free rein to move back and forth, potentially bringing the disease in with them. And, on a related topic, there's also the steady flow of undocumented migrants trying to get in; you'd expect most or all of those coming by dinghy to be intercepted and taken into custody, but anyone who manages to get in via the back of a lorry route is going to disappear and spread the disease all over the place if they have it. If your islands are 1500 miles from anywhere, rather than a short sea crossing from Calais, then none of these problems apply to you.
    Why was Vietnam so successful in dealing with the virus? It had asolutely no advantages and many disadvantages to cope with.
    Well. They could organise a peasant army to defeat the most powerful military in history...So you know virus, meh.
    Wearing masks as defense against infection is well-established practice as in much of East Asia. Plus pretty tight government control, to put it mildly. Flouting social distancing & other directives NO a good idea IF you want to stay out of trouble with the powers that be.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,538
    dixiedean said:

    eristdoof said:
    One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
    Complaining about gesture politics is like complaining about singing at the opera. Politics is 90% empty gestures.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    It looks like a well known journalist, probably female, will be appointed to act as host

    It could be very interesting and go either way

    I reserve judgment
    Perhaps Laura K. should get the gig, to remove any pretence of impartiality.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,475

    dixiedean said:

    eristdoof said:
    One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
    Complaining about gesture politics is like complaining about singing at the opera. Politics is 90% empty gestures.
    Or 98.75% in some cases..
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137
    Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?

    No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.

    Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.

    Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.

    Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
    A DA isn’t a big fish...

    Look at who got the trips to the island.
    A corrupt federal DA is indeed a big fish. Especially when he ends up in the cabinet.

    Can you be a tad less coy about whom you're referring, as ALLEGEDLY tangled up in the Epstein web?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830

    It looks like a well known journalist, probably female, will be appointed to act as host

    It could be very interesting and go either way

    I reserve judgment
    Perhaps Laura K. should get the gig, to remove any pretence of impartiality.
    She is not on the list put out by Guido

    Some surprising names are
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    It looks like a well known journalist, probably female, will be appointed to act as host

    It could be very interesting and go either way

    I reserve judgment
    Perhaps Laura K. should get the gig, to remove any pretence of impartiality.
    She is not on the list put out by Guido

    Some surprising names are
    Do tell.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266

    dixiedean said:

    eristdoof said:
    One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
    To be fair you are surely not suggesting the candle virgil at no 10 tomorrow night on behalf of the nation remembering those who have lost their lives is empty virtue signalling

    I could believe it of Scott but not yourself to be honest
    Not at all. I was merely pointing out how just about anything that happens these days will elicit a response along these lines from the other side.
    Often contradicting their own stated opinions about such matters on similar but opposite events.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Why the heck is this being described as "Trump-style"?

    Yes it is White House style but Bill Clinton's White House style that was kept by George W Bush and Obama after Clinton . . . and dropped by Trump. Trump abolished the daily briefings.

    To say that Boris is introducing "Trump-style" daily briefings . . . that were done by Trump's predecessors and abolished by Trump is . . . odd.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?

    Did you miss that the FBI themselves say they’ve been watching her for ages?
    They released an extraordinary statement about how gorgeous her soft furnishings were.
    What's so extraordinary about it? She was living it up on her pimping percentage.

    IF you think that US legal system imitates the stuffy decorum of English law establishment, then think again.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,507
    Nigelb said:

    This for LadyG, re: conspiracy.

    Years after Alfred Dreyfus was exonerated of false charges of having been a German spy, he was playing a game of cards with some acquaintances.

    One of his fellow card players happened to mention a current case, where someone was being accused of a criminal conspiracy based on circumstantial evidence.

    Then he suddenly realized with whom he was playing, and began apologizing profusely. Of course, he said, we shouldn't jump to conclusions in the absence of overwhelming proof.

    "I don't know," replied Dreyfus, "where there's smoke, there's fire!"

    "

    J’amuse ?
    When I first went to France as a schoolboy in the 1950s on an exchange with a school in a town on the Rhône, there was scrawled in huge letters a painted graffito on the bank of the river saying "Libérez Dreyfus". It must have been there already around 50 years.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    dixiedean said:

    eristdoof said:
    One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
    To be fair you are surely not suggesting the candle virgil at no 10 tomorrow night on behalf of the nation remembering those who have lost their lives is empty virtue signalling

    I could believe it of Scott but not yourself to be honest
    Honouring the dead and promoting far left extremists are equivalent photo ops
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    Why the heck is this being described as "Trump-style"?

    Yes it is White House style but Bill Clinton's White House style that was kept by George W Bush and Obama after Clinton . . . and dropped by Trump. Trump abolished the daily briefings.

    To say that Boris is introducing "Trump-style" daily briefings . . . that were done by Trump's predecessors and abolished by Trump is . . . odd.
    Slick Willie & W & Barack did DAILY presser? Don't remember that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,917
    Pulpstar said:

    Merthyr Tydfil next for a local lock-down?

    "Merthyr Tydfil saw the highest rate in the UK, with 177 out of every 100,000 people testing positive in the week to 30 June. The spike is attributed to an outbreak at a local meat processing plant.

    The government announced it was re-imposing lockdown measures in Leicester on Monday, after a jump in cases last week. New figures released on Thursday show Leicester still had the highest infection rate in England - with 141 cases per 100,000 people in the week to 28 June."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

    I suppose that depends on whether or not the Welsh Government thinks the disease is liable to spread further. If the cases are very largely concentrated amongst workers at a single factory, and everybody at that factory has been sent home to self-isolate, then the number of new cases may very well subside as rapidly as it rose.

    I'm not at all familiar with the local circumstances in this case, but I'm working on the assumption that the town is being closely monitored, and won't be subject to further measures if there's little or no sign of onward transmission through the rest of the community.
    Merthyr isn't really a self contained county borough. It is an economic desert, so commuting down the A470 to Rhonnda Cynon Taff and Cardiff Council areas for employment and leisure is normal.

    Surprisingly, Drakeford, who I consider an idiiot under normal circumstances has had a reasonable pandemic. He has been forthright, even if it flies in the face of public opinion. If there needs to be a local lockdown, they won't mess about in Wales.
    Do you think the pandemic is easier for left wingers as they're naturally more willing to exert state authority than right wingers ?
    I think in general populists have managed the epidemic badly: Trump, Bolsano, Johnson and maybe Putin (although he's hardly a populist these days...)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618
    Charles said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:
    I expect that tweet will look particularly stupid in a couple of weeks time.
    I had a very surprising conversation with the head of R&D at one of the top global pharmaceutical companies today.

    He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.

    As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.

    Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests

    (My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
    I would be surprised if that got past coding.

    It is pretty unlikely that admitted patients would also be coincidentally asymptomatic for Covid-19.

    It all sounds like denial to me.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    slade said:

    Another relevant quotation from Samuel Pepys. "The taverns are full of gadabouts making merry this eve. And though I may press my face against the window like an urchin at a confectioner's, I am tempted not by the sweetmeats within. A dram in exchange for the pox is an ill bargain indeed".

    It's made up by the Twitter account. It's not real.
    Quite. I didn't think I'd ever said that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    Nigelb said:

    Review of the Disney Hamilton...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/07/disney-plus-hamilton-2020/613834/

    Definitely worth paying for a temporary subscription to watch, though the sound quality, particularly some of the individual miking, is a bit off.

    Renée Goldsberry is superb.

    Hamilton is so good. Saw it in the West End but looking forward to watching it this weekend, got a Disney+ subscription just for the purpose.
    There is an excellent documentary re: Hamilton that you may be able to access on PBS website or YouTube. Among the commentators (before 2016) re: AH were . . . wait for it . . . Elizabeth Warren and George W. Bush.

    Warren in particular was very interesting. Said a LOT of nice things about Hamilton. IF she'd been a bit more like she was in that documentary, think she'd have done way better in the primaries. As it was, she veered left trying to capture Bernie's base from him, but failed. AND at same time scared off moderates who would have like the things she said - but they never heard - in her review of Hamilton.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266
    Today I learned. Wales didn't have a Capital city till 1955.
    Cardiff got the gig due to its Tory marginals.
    Would be Wrexham or Flint today I guess.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830

    It looks like a well known journalist, probably female, will be appointed to act as host

    It could be very interesting and go either way

    I reserve judgment
    Perhaps Laura K. should get the gig, to remove any pretence of impartiality.
    She is not on the list put out by Guido

    Some surprising names are
    Do tell.

    It looks like a well known journalist, probably female, will be appointed to act as host

    It could be very interesting and go either way

    I reserve judgment
    Perhaps Laura K. should get the gig, to remove any pretence of impartiality.
    She is not on the list put out by Guido

    Some surprising names are
    Do tell.
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    eristdoof said:
    One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
    To be fair you are surely not suggesting the candle virgil at no 10 tomorrow night on behalf of the nation remembering those who have lost their lives is empty virtue signalling

    I could believe it of Scott but not yourself to be honest
    Not at all. I was merely pointing out how just about anything that happens these days will elicit a response along these lines from the other side.
    Often contradicting their own stated opinions about such matters on similar but opposite events.
    I know you would not associate yourself with Scotts crass remark about an important moment in the NHS history

    There are times that transend politics and this is one of them
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    IanB2 said:

    LadyG said:

    Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?

    Did you miss that the FBI themselves say they’ve been watching her for ages?
    They released an extraordinary statement about how gorgeous her soft furnishings were.
    I can’t imagine the U.K. police using the term “slithered” about an alleged criminal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    The really important observations in politics
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?

    No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.

    Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.

    Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.

    Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
    A DA isn’t a big fish...

    Look at who got the trips to the island.
    A corrupt federal DA is indeed a big fish. Especially when he ends up in the cabinet.

    Can you be a tad less coy about whom you're referring, as ALLEGEDLY tangled up in the Epstein web?
    I shall just link to Wikipedia rather than passing comment or making any accusations

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Saint_James,_U.S._Virgin_Islands
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    The really important observations in politics
    Well clearly Shapps thinks so.

    Is The Churchill Factor by Boris Johnson on show? My eyesight isn't so good these days.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,019
    Andy_JS said:

    nico67 said:

    Trump is a stain on humanity . Trying to foster further division. Anything as long as it gets him re-elected , it’s a scorched earth policy .

    Trump is what you get when mainstream politicians get detached from the concerns of ordinary voters.
    Or what you get if you have a crappy electoral system?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830

    The really important observations in politics
    Well clearly Shapps thinks so.

    Is The Churchill Factor by Boris Johnson on show? My eyesight isn't so good these days.
    No idea.

    I am not interested in trivia
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,593
    Charles said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:
    I expect that tweet will look particularly stupid in a couple of weeks time.
    I had a very surprising conversation with the head of R&D at one of the top global pharmaceutical companies today.

    He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.

    As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.

    Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests

    (My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
    Can he explain why the ICUs are being saturated around COVID hotpots? Surely asymptomatic people with non COVID ailments even if they tested positive would not be admitted to intensive care?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    The really important observations in politics
    Well clearly Shapps thinks so.

    Is The Churchill Factor by Boris Johnson on show? My eyesight isn't so good these days.
    No idea.

    I am not interested in trivia
    I love it. And the more salacious the better, which is why Mr Johnson is such a fascinating figure.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,830
    Anyway time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    LadyG said:

    So maybe the Swedes WERE right, after all

    Deaths plateauing by more than half in the last month


    *Pedant hat ON*

    The point of a plateau is that it’s flat. So the deaths have been declining, not plateauing.

    *Pedant hat OFF*
    He's attempting to take the piss out of me.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130

    Why the heck is this being described as "Trump-style"?

    Yes it is White House style but Bill Clinton's White House style that was kept by George W Bush and Obama after Clinton . . . and dropped by Trump. Trump abolished the daily briefings.

    To say that Boris is introducing "Trump-style" daily briefings . . . that were done by Trump's predecessors and abolished by Trump is . . . odd.
    Because the Lobby hacks are absolutely furious at the ending of their special, privileged private briefings, in favour of the government spokesperson telling the world what they have to say in their own words.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    LadyG said:

    I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG


    ***

    Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.

    "We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

    "Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

    ***

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?r=US&IR=T

    Bizarre they should say that as their Covid ICU occupancy rate plunge. They seem to be over the worse of it by some distance.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    LadyG said:

    Does anyone believe the FBI literally just found Ghislaine Maxwell in the last week?

    No. Because that is NOT what they say happened. According to FBI, they've been monitoring her whereabouts for months. They knew where to find her her; they kept her on ice while they were investigating other aspects of this whole, sordid affair.

    Methinks they've been gathering evidence and building case against the really BIG fish. Such as former US district attorney & short-term Trump cabinet member, and no doubt others, implicated in SERIOUS corruption connected with Epstein's (and Maxwell's) original incredible, unbelievable sweetheart plea deal.

    Why tip off THESE targets, by moving prematurely against the woman who is the keeper of Epstein's black books, financial records, etc., etc.? Instead, keep building the case, then arrest La Maxwell when the time is right. Either because they've build the basic case OR because she was getting ready to "slither away" yet again.

    Check out the reporting on this, and the documentation, BEFORE jumping to conclusions. Anyway, more will be revealed no doubt at her bail hearing scheduled for Monday.
    A DA isn’t a big fish...

    Look at who got the trips to the island.
    A corrupt federal DA is indeed a big fish. Especially when he ends up in the cabinet.

    Can you be a tad less coy about whom you're referring, as ALLEGEDLY tangled up in the Epstein web?
    I shall just link to Wikipedia rather than passing comment or making any accusations

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Saint_James,_U.S._Virgin_Islands
    Thanks, Charles. As a totally unconnected observation, methinks that Bill Clinton will be as little heard about/from as his missus re: Biden campaign. Trumpsky may - indeed likely will - try to use Clinton yet again for his own purposes. BUT somehow doubt he or at least his saner advisors will really want to go there.

    But like the good book says, a dog returnth to its own vomit. Just ask His Foul Lowness.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,266

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    It is. However, there are 12 steps outlined there. It would be like landing an accumulator to have all of them occur.
    And that is ignoring the quasi pre-revolutionary situation on the Streets right now...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    I prefer the judgements of peoples' backdrops to be more teasing or humourous. And apparently he always has an open dispatch box on the go, as this one from May shows
    https://twitter.com/BCredibility/status/1260486320360734726
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:
    I expect that tweet will look particularly stupid in a couple of weeks time.
    I had a very surprising conversation with the head of R&D at one of the top global pharmaceutical companies today.

    He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.

    As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.

    Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests

    (My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
    Can he explain why the ICUs are being saturated around COVID hotpots? Surely asymptomatic people with non COVID ailments even if they tested positive would not be admitted to intensive care?

    I had a couple of more important things to talk about in a limited window so didn’t prove too deeply.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Why the heck is this being described as "Trump-style"?

    Yes it is White House style but Bill Clinton's White House style that was kept by George W Bush and Obama after Clinton . . . and dropped by Trump. Trump abolished the daily briefings.

    To say that Boris is introducing "Trump-style" daily briefings . . . that were done by Trump's predecessors and abolished by Trump is . . . odd.
    Slick Willie & W & Barack did DAILY presser? Don't remember that.
    Yes, from 1995: https://www.whitehousehistory.org/press-room/press-timelines/the-white-house-and-the-press-timeline

    1995 Press Secretary Mike McCurry started the practice of televising the daily press briefings.

    Even if you never paid attention to those three Presidents did you not watch The West Wing and pay attention to CJ Cregg's character?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    Andy_JS said:

    nico67 said:

    Trump is a stain on humanity . Trying to foster further division. Anything as long as it gets him re-elected , it’s a scorched earth policy .

    Trump is what you get when mainstream politicians get detached from the concerns of ordinary voters.
    Or what you get if you have a crappy electoral system?
    Not enough on its own to get a Trump - else they'd have had a lot more like him before now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    I'm sure that'll be tough on him when he easily wins re-election next year.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG


    ***

    Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.

    "We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

    "Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

    ***

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?r=US&IR=T

    Bizarre they should say that as their Covid ICU occupancy rate plunge. They seem to be over the worse of it by some distance.
    See my later comments.

    I reckon the Swedish PM just HAS to say something like this, given the relatively high death toll. No politician could say "Wow we've done really good, only 5,000 corpses, top marks everyone"

    So he sounds regretful and pensive.

    As you say, in reality it is quite arguable that Sweden is doing OK, even quite good
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    He will lose them tomorrow too in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool as well as London, when the revellry starts in earnest.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,052
    dixiedean said:

    eristdoof said:
    One man's moving, heartfelt tribute is another's empty virtue signalling gesture.
    I just don't think that getting a Bic ligheter out to light one measly candle is a approrriate tribute to the many thousands who have died of Covid 19. A memorial service at Westminster Abbey would be more fitting.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,618

    Nigelb said:

    Review of the Disney Hamilton...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/07/disney-plus-hamilton-2020/613834/

    Definitely worth paying for a temporary subscription to watch, though the sound quality, particularly some of the individual miking, is a bit off.

    Renée Goldsberry is superb.

    Hamilton is so good. Saw it in the West End but looking forward to watching it this weekend, got a Disney+ subscription just for the purpose.
    There is an excellent documentary re: Hamilton that you may be able to access on PBS website or YouTube. Among the commentators (before 2016) re: AH were . . . wait for it . . . Elizabeth Warren and George W. Bush.

    Warren in particular was very interesting. Said a LOT of nice things about Hamilton. IF she'd been a bit more like she was in that documentary, think she'd have done way better in the primaries. As it was, she veered left trying to capture Bernie's base from him, but failed. AND at same time scared off moderates who would have like the things she said - but they never heard - in her review of Hamilton.
    I saw Hamilton 18 months back. It is a great show, witty, stylish, great contemporary music, reinventing the musical in great style. I loved the supercilious George lll and fopish Lafayette.

    Ultimately a very conservative theme, of the immigrant in a land of opportunity, made good. The reality is that social mobility is fairly low in the US.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
    BF seems to be about "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. "
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    I'm sure that'll be tough on him when he easily wins re-election next year.
    Oh, he's a shoo-in. Of course

    However the wider world is watching.

    Khan is not having a good plague. I reckon further political ambitions for him are over. Wider still, this stuff would play well for Farage if he came back with some law and order party
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,266
    France has a new prime minister.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Castex
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137
    In saying that DOJ & FBI have the net out for some big fish in Epstein affair, do NOT mean that their targets are exclusively Republicans.

    Though it IS a fact, that former US District Attorney for Southern Florida, Alexander Acosta, IS a Republican appointed as DA by W, and as Secretary of Labor by Trumpsky. AND he was under consideration to succeed Jeff Sessions as Attorney General. Until, that is, the Miami Herald published story about his interactions with Epstein's lawyers.

    AND when Epstein was arrested, Acosta resigned as Labor Sec two weeks later. Coincidence? Conspiracy? Kismet?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight
    ttps://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    1989 all over again, police v ravers, except without the queues for the phone boxes at South Mimms Services.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
    Don’t worry. Josh or Toby will come up with some cracking wheeze at the last moment
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
    YOU are more likely to get the nod that that Fucker.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335
    Charles said:

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
    Don’t worry. Josh or Toby will come up with some cracking wheeze at the last moment
    If only...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
    BF seems to be about "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. "
    So if votes can't be counted, even through chicanery, the states are "legitimately" called for Trump.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221

    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
    Have you watched his show?

    He's very good, within his own terms, even if you despise his politics. Sharp, smart, pointed, adept.

    A populist like him would be more worrisome for liberal-left America than a swithering buffoon like the Donald
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    edited July 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    France has a new prime minister.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Castex

    Seems weird from a UK perspective that one can go straight from senior civil servant to Prime Minister, whilst also having being a mayor at the same time.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Sandpit said:

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight
    ttps://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    1989 all over again, police v ravers, except without the queues for the phone boxes at South Mimms Services.
    In the context of a pandemic and crashing economy this feels, to me, more ominous than the 2nd Summer of Love

    We are maybe lucky it is going to be a cool windy weekend
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
    Hogwash. You must be the LAST person on earth still reading Newsweek.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,052

    Charles said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:
    I expect that tweet will look particularly stupid in a couple of weeks time.
    I had a very surprising conversation with the head of R&D at one of the top global pharmaceutical companies today.

    He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.

    As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.

    Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests

    (My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
    Can he explain why the ICUs are being saturated around COVID hotpots? Surely asymptomatic people with non COVID ailments even if they tested positive would not be admitted to intensive care?

    "COVID hotpots" - You get invited round to dinner and get infected by the virus.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
    YOU are more likely to get the nod that that Fucker.
    The game's up! I am in fact Sean Hannity!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Impressive that the Guardian can manage an entire article on the subject without mentioning the party of which the father was an MP:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/03/ghislaine-maxwell-follows-her-family-footsteps-into-the-dock
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    He will lose them tomorrow too in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool as well as London, when the revellry starts in earnest.
    What about Penarth?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    I'm sure that'll be tough on him when he easily wins re-election next year.
    Oh, he's a shoo-in. Of course

    However the wider world is watching.

    Khan is not having a good plague. I reckon further political ambitions for him are over. Wider still, this stuff would play well for Farage if he came back with some law and order party
    Eh, he's pretty young still. After 8 years as Mayor it seemed like Boris might struggle to work his way back in after becoming an MP again, but he bided his time and an opportunity came.

    I suppose difficult for Khan might be if Keir does cobble together a win in 2024 he can only come back as a side figure, not an incoming potential saviour after Keir loses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    How Trump retains power in the event of defeat is going to be fascinating.

    It will surely come to pass, but in what form remains a mystery.

    Presumably if the events as described occur and Trump runs the clock down to the electoral college, the bookies call it for Trump nationally and in the states concerned. Is that right?
    Hogwash. You must be the LAST person on earth still reading Newsweek.
    Nope, not the last: Bill Kristol is as well.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1279099512372506630
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
    AND James Carville is as relevant to what's-happening-now as Aaron Burr. Who methinks had a better chance of being president in 1801 that Trumpsky has in 2021.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,254
    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    Yes, but luckily these London incidents are nowhere near the same scale as the 2011 London riots. Can't remember who the mayor was then, losing control of the streets.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,414

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    It has a disturbing plausibility.

    I would believe that of Barr.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,052
    Sandpit said:

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight
    ttps://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    1989 all over again, police v ravers, except without the queues for the phone boxes at South Mimms Services.
    I thought it was a car drove round the services carpark with someone hanging out the window shouting "cheesey quaver"! It basicly meant "follow us, we know where the rave is. "
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    LadyG said:

    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
    Have you watched his show?

    He's very good, within his own terms, even if you despise his politics. Sharp, smart, pointed, adept.

    A populist like him would be more worrisome for liberal-left America than a swithering buffoon like the Donald
    Someone who calls Trump out for being too Liberal, worries the liberal-left? Hell yes. But a bow tie alone does not a President make.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,266
    edited July 2020
    Nigelb said:

    This is the scariest political article I have seen in a long time.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975

    There's a real worry now that Biden needs to win by an absolute landslide to have a hope of actually becoming POTUS.

    It has a disturbing plausibility.

    I would believe that of Barr.

    The article is paranoid nonsense IMO.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    kle4 said:

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    I'm sure that'll be tough on him when he easily wins re-election next year.
    Oh, he's a shoo-in. Of course

    However the wider world is watching.

    Khan is not having a good plague. I reckon further political ambitions for him are over. Wider still, this stuff would play well for Farage if he came back with some law and order party
    Eh, he's pretty young still. After 8 years as Mayor it seemed like Boris might struggle to work his way back in after becoming an MP again, but he bided his time and an opportunity came.

    I suppose difficult for Khan might be if Keir does cobble together a win in 2024 he can only come back as a side figure, not an incoming potential saviour after Keir loses.
    Khan is utterly without charisma. He's been a poor and uninspiring mayor. He's a moderate when the job, of LOTO, is already taken by a moderate.

    If Starmer loses in 2024 the party will go Left again, in despair. If Starmer does OK, or even wins, well then.

    I don't see a route up for Khan.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG


    ***

    Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.

    "We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

    "Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

    ***

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?r=US&IR=T

    Bizarre they should say that as their Covid ICU occupancy rate plunge. They seem to be over the worse of it by some distance.
    See my later comments.

    I reckon the Swedish PM just HAS to say something like this, given the relatively high death toll. No politician could say "Wow we've done really good, only 5,000 corpses, top marks everyone"

    So he sounds regretful and pensive.

    As you say, in reality it is quite arguable that Sweden is doing OK, even quite good
    Given how their neighbours have done Sweden has done shit. Massively more deaths and economy basically just as fucked.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137
    LadyG said:

    The bad news is Tucker Carlson has been touted as a replacement.
    Have you watched his show?

    He's very good, within his own terms, even if you despise his politics. Sharp, smart, pointed, adept.

    A populist like him would be more worrisome for liberal-left America than a swithering buffoon like the Donald
    At least Trumpsky was fun (for a while) as the Big Boss on US version of "The Apprentice". Wheras your man Fucker was total washout on "Dancing with the Stars"

    American may and did elect a boorish buffoon - but NEVER a bad dancer!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    edited July 2020

    LadyG said:

    White City, London, tonight


    https://twitter.com/999London/status/1279167593463635969?s=20

    Sadiq Khan has lost control of the streets

    He will lose them tomorrow too in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool as well as London, when the revellry starts in earnest.
    What about Penarth?
    No, the only agent provocateur residing in that corner of the Vale of Glamorgan has returned to the smoke, changing his name and gender on the journey back!
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG


    ***

    Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.

    "We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

    "Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

    ***

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?r=US&IR=T

    Bizarre they should say that as their Covid ICU occupancy rate plunge. They seem to be over the worse of it by some distance.
    See my later comments.

    I reckon the Swedish PM just HAS to say something like this, given the relatively high death toll. No politician could say "Wow we've done really good, only 5,000 corpses, top marks everyone"

    So he sounds regretful and pensive.

    As you say, in reality it is quite arguable that Sweden is doing OK, even quite good
    Given how their neighbours have done Sweden has done shit. Massively more deaths and economy basically just as fucked.
    But they didn't close the schools. Millions of Swedish kids were NOT locked down at home, without an education, damaging mental health

    These are not trivial issues
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.

    Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,593
    eristdoof said:

    Charles said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:
    I expect that tweet will look particularly stupid in a couple of weeks time.
    I had a very surprising conversation with the head of R&D at one of the top global pharmaceutical companies today.

    He basically said that the spike in hospital admissions is because all the emergency funding for the US hospital system is on a per capita basis for Covid cases.

    As a result if you go into hospital for any reason- such as broken ankle - you are tested for Covid and, if positive, are reported as being admitted due to coronavirus.

    Similarly he said most of the rise in cases is due to overall increases in tests

    (My guess is that he is a Republican, although I’ve never asked him. He’s a friend and good client so I have no reason to believe he was being untruthful. He also said that he tries to ignore politicians and the media and base his views in reviewing the science)
    Can he explain why the ICUs are being saturated around COVID hotpots? Surely asymptomatic people with non COVID ailments even if they tested positive would not be admitted to intensive care?

    "COVID hotpots" - You get invited round to dinner and get infected by the virus.
    The amount of extended family infections coming out of Texas. I wouldn't be surprised to see hotpox parties.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    For once great minds think alike!

    BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,338

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    I wish I could believe that Richard but I can see a situation where "fake votes" becomes the Trumpsters' clarion call.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    edited July 2020

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    For once great minds think alike!

    BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.
    True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,414

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    It’s unlikely, but it’s not utterly impossible.
    And the point about the article is that it’s a route for him not to lose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    For once great minds think alike!

    BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.
    I never notice anything, that way I am always surprised and excited at any revelation of fact, it's the only way to live.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    57,000 new cases in the US in one day

    A record


    https://twitter.com/NewsNodes/status/1279171876728836096?s=20
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,137
    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    Alistair said:

    LadyG said:

    I missed this. Sweden is now accepting that they got it WRONG


    ***

    Sweden's prime minister has ordered an inquiry into the country's decision not to impose a coronavirus lockdown after the country suffered thousands more deaths than its closest neighbours.

    "We have thousands of dead," Swedish prime minister Stefan Lofven said at a press conference on Wednesday, while admitting that the country's handling had exposed Sweden's "shortcomings," The Times of London reported.

    "Now the question is how Sweden should change, not if."

    ***

    https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?r=US&IR=T

    Bizarre they should say that as their Covid ICU occupancy rate plunge. They seem to be over the worse of it by some distance.
    See my later comments.

    I reckon the Swedish PM just HAS to say something like this, given the relatively high death toll. No politician could say "Wow we've done really good, only 5,000 corpses, top marks everyone"

    So he sounds regretful and pensive.

    As you say, in reality it is quite arguable that Sweden is doing OK, even quite good
    Given how their neighbours have done Sweden has done shit. Massively more deaths and economy basically just as fucked.
    But they didn't close the schools. Millions of Swedish kids were NOT locked down at home, without an education, damaging mental health

    These are not trivial issues
    Have to wait a while to know for sure. However, here in Seattle kids I know do not appear to be regressing or freaking out. As for me, well, THAT's a different story!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    For once great minds think alike!

    BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.
    True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.
    Nevertheless, if he were to engage in shenanigans it seems far more likely it would be before election day. Once he's already been shown to have lost it's just that much more difficult to get people to sully themselves with fighting it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914

    isam said:

    Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.

    Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.
    Story of every major incident breaching lockdown so far perhaps.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,335

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    Respectively, I don't agree. We'll see in four months.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    LadyG said:

    57,000 new cases in the US in one day

    A record


    https://twitter.com/NewsNodes/status/1279171876728836096?s=20

    What's happening with deaths? Keep hearing about surges in cases in the USA but not heard of surges in deaths yet.

    Or is there any evidence COVID deaths are getting buried as something else?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491

    isam said:

    Tomorrow could be absolute carnage I fear.

    Damp squib with a couple of incidents blown up out of all proportion to appear to be carnage will by my bet.
    Let's hope you are right.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    I wish I could believe that Richard but I can see a situation where "fake votes" becomes the Trumpsters' clarion call.
    Oh, I'm sure there will be lots of conspiracy theories on the internet. That doesn't matter - what matters is what the establishment (in the wide sense) does: judges, senators, House representatives, the Republican Party, the administration as a whole.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,491
    kle4 said:

    All this stuff about Trump somehow hanging on if he loses is nonsense: if he loses the election, he'll be a loser, and if he's seen as a loser everyone who currently supports him or is loyal to him will run a mile. No one is going to help him hang on. In fact it will turn out they never ever supported him in the first place.

    For once great minds think alike!

    BTW did PBers notice that presidential result was a tad close in 1960, 2000 and 2016? Yet power was transferred - away from the party in power - to candidate who ended up with the most electoral votes as scheduled on Inauguration Day.
    True, but in each of those years the incumbent President was not Donald John Trump.
    Nevertheless, if he were to engage in shenanigans it seems far more likely it would be before election day. Once he's already been shown to have lost it's just that much more difficult to get people to sully themselves with fighting it.
    I am sure that is true, but if all else fails...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Regarding the Newsweek article .

    If you read the comments pages one there mentions the role of the Secretary of State in certifying the results , having double checked that it’s correct . So 3 out of the 4 states mentioned have Democrats in that role .
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