The response to Coronavirus is the biggest policy mistake by any British government ever in the history of British governments. Lord North can now relax, wherever he is.
I got called hysterical for saying that on here yesterday. Reading what BoE governor Andrew Bailey says, that the economy will take a 35% hit and struggle to recover from that hit, perhaps some might like to dial down the criticism.
Panic reigns. I see one cabinet minister is even briefing journalists that the government never wanted lockdown but the public did so they went with it.
So its the public's fault, its the virus's fault, its....er....Lets see....Donald Trump's fault....its China's fault, it's the data collectors fault, when in fact it is the government's fault
We are utterly at sea. Rudderless, leaderless, with a broken compass giving us false information and drifting towards an economic whirlpool.
Its actually worse than that, I think. I am struggling to find words for how bad it is.
Whether right or wrong or somewhere in between (!) I do commend you for sticking to this line throughout.
I am far more sympathetic to it than the one pushed by others on here that the government is not to be questioned and we should just follow blindly and keep our mouths shut.
Appreciated.
My reasoning is simply this. Misfortunes of one sort have befallen the British people down the centuries, but nobody running the country has even sought to wilfully destroy an enormous part of the economy as a policy response to those misfortunes. No government or king, ever.
If we can look to our own conduct in the past, surely we can look to the conduct of every single country in the world now (with some very limited, jury-out exceptions) and say that we are doing what every government and king is doing now, everywhere?
If you look at the history of the Black Death or the Plague you will see that they shut down, in many cases permanently, a lot more than 35% of the economy. That may have been without government involvement, but there was less government involvement in everything anyway in those days.
I am not saying you are wrong, but you over simplify the problem beyond what it will bear.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
The Swedish expert, Johan Giesecke, on the unHerd video linked to earlier downthread, said an aspect of this was care homes. Swedes group people together in bigger care homes.
The response to Coronavirus is the biggest policy mistake by any British government ever in the history of British governments. Lord North can now relax, wherever he is.
I got called hysterical for saying that on here yesterday. Reading what BoE governor Andrew Bailey says, that the economy will take a 35% hit and struggle to recover from that hit, perhaps some might like to dial down the criticism.
Panic reigns. I see one cabinet minister is even briefing journalists that the government never wanted lockdown but the public did so they went with it.
So its the public's fault, its the virus's fault, its....er....Lets see....Donald Trump's fault....its China's fault, it's the data collectors fault, when in fact it is the government's fault
We are utterly at sea. Rudderless, leaderless, with a broken compass giving us false information and drifting towards an economic whirlpool.
Its actually worse than that, I think. I am struggling to find words for how bad it is.
Whether right or wrong or somewhere in between (!) I do commend you for sticking to this line throughout.
I am far more sympathetic to it than the one pushed by others on here that the government is not to be questioned and we should just follow blindly and keep our mouths shut.
Appreciated.
My reasoning is simply this. Misfortunes of one sort have befallen the British people down the centuries, but nobody running the country has even sought to wilfully destroy an enormous part of the economy as a policy response to those misfortunes. No government or king, ever.
"Wilfully" is putting it a bit strongly. As has been said, the panic response was purely health-driven - understandably - with, it is clear, little regard for the destruction of the economy and our liberty. But the government - politically - had no option. And getting us out of lockdown is going to be even more problematic for the government.
The government has a big majority, it has choice, it has agency. What it lacks completely is someone prepared to ignore the media sh8tstorm that unpopular but correct decisions sometimes cause.And the sh8tstorm here would have been massive.
Governments are meant to govern. To lead. That is their function. Sometimes short term public opinion and moreover media reaction, has to be ignored.
No. I am working from 5am to 11pm on either salaried work, childcare or cooking meals. I have no time for housework. We sometimes get an hour or two before we go to bed if we're lucky but then we often fill this with work deliverables that have deadlines. I sleep from 11pm to 5am.
I'm not interested in arguing with you. It's the truth. If you don't want to accept it that's your business.
No wonder you're so eggy all the time. Jack it in. No job is worth that.
The most concerning element for me, is that his model is run on 13 year old undocumented code, which hasn't been peer reviewed.
When I was in academia, if I had written totally undocumented code that couldn't be released, because nobody would know how to use it, I would have got a huge amount of grief. And my work, didn't involve estimating deaths of 10,000s of people.
Johan Giesecke was pretty scathing about the Imperial modelling.
I think it's really hard to read. Outside the US, ruling parties and leaders are almost all seeing very big boiunces in support; but there is a sense that something has shifted in the UK. The damage done to the Labour brand over the last few years has been very severe and it is going to take a hell of a lot for many previously sympathetic voters to take another look. To that extent, I believe a good deal of the Tory support is pretty solid. However, I also think we are moving into such an unprecedented time when just about all previous assumptions - at home and abroad - are going to come under such severe pressure that it woud be very foolsih indeed to predict how public opinion is going to move over the medium to longer term.
Indeed, the latest polls from Germany, Poland and Finland all show the leading governing party doing very well.
The latest German poll has the CDU/CSU on 39% with the SPD on 16%, the Greens on 15%. Pre-virus, the CDU/CSU was only just polling ahead of the Greens in the mid to upper 20s so this is a huge turnround.
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
A sagacious header. I suspect the government's high polling may turn out to be a chimera. I personally harbour some concerns about its performance, but if polled would probably say that it was doing 'bloody great'. This would be partly to reassure myself (if I say it' so then it somehow makes it closer to being the case) and partly because any other response would feel churlish during a period of collective doom. Do others feel the same?
I think also that amongst many people there is, and will remain, an element of disliking the use of hindsight. And we are seeing a lot of hindsight being used at the moment.
Certainly I get the feeling that some of the critics of the Government (but no where near all) will fall into the category of those who will attack them no matter what. Richard Horton certainly fits into this category, currently attacking the Government for not having done enough early enough when, at exactly the time he says they should have been doing more, he was happily tweeting that the virus had low potential to cause large numbers of fatalities because it had only a moderate infection rate and a low fatality rate.
There has to be the recognition that whatever action Government's take will have consequences and will cause people to die. They will be different consequences and different people will die but the idea that we can, with hindsight, thread a path back to the start of this along which no one would have died is just wrong.
The Swedish expert on the unHerd video linked to earlier downthread, said an aspect of this was care homes. Swedes group people together in bigger care homes.
Yup, he also said that the Swedish care homes are staffed by all kinds of immigrants and refugees and such who can't follow instructions. Good fit for Guido.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
I recently went to Paphos, for a running race that was of course cancelled. I have to admit that I quite liked it for a few days' chilling, although I did keep away from the big resort hotels
We still have two weeks on the Lizard booked (if we can go).
Between us Mrs DA and I have bought five return flights to India so far this year and been able to use none of them! I'm giving up going anywhere until Xmas.
I've stopped planning. My long trip to Russia obviously isn't happening, but I'd not yet spent any money - I have booked a hotel in St Petersburg but it's on free cancellation. A delay in having the leave approved by work meant I couldn't apply for a visa until I got back from Cyprus in March. Which obviously I didn't do.
Ryanair have just offered me a refund on my flight to NL for May Bank Holiday and when I find out if the Dutch have extended restrictions beyond 28 April I will see if I can cancel my hotel.
Anything else I will book closer to the event, if I can. IBut the possibility is that even if travel becomes possible, as I have an underlying medical condition, I either shouldn't take the risk, or may not get travel insurance.
We are meant to be going to France on May 30th. We have free cancellation until May 10th. Macron is announcing the review of the lockdown on the 11th...
The hotel said there is a govt scheme that gives us a credit for 18 months to stay there anytime, and money back if we don’t. I wonder if our 5 nights might only be worth 2 when this is all over though, and prices soar.
I think Macron has pretty much ruled out bars, restaurants and hotels reopening until July.
A real shame. It was my 40th birthday present to my missus.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The response to Coronavirus is the biggest policy mistake by any British government ever in the history of British governments. Lord North can now relax, wherever he is.
I got called hysterical for saying that on here yesterday. Reading what BoE governor Andrew Bailey says, that the economy will take a 35% hit and struggle to recover from that hit, perhaps some might like to dial down the criticism.
Panic reigns. I see one cabinet minister is even briefing journalists that the government never wanted lockdown but the public did so they went with it.
So its the public's fault, its the virus's fault, its....er....Lets see....Donald Trump's fault....its China's fault, it's the data collectors fault, when in fact it is the government's fault
We are utterly at sea. Rudderless, leaderless, with a broken compass giving us false information and drifting towards an economic whirlpool.
Its actually worse than that, I think. I am struggling to find words for how bad it is.
Whether right or wrong or somewhere in between (!) I do commend you for sticking to this line throughout.
I am far more sympathetic to it than the one pushed by others on here that the government is not to be questioned and we should just follow blindly and keep our mouths shut.
Appreciated.
My reasoning is simply this. Misfortunes of one sort have befallen the British people down the centuries, but nobody running the country has even sought to wilfully destroy an enormous part of the economy as a policy response to those misfortunes. No government or king, ever.
"Wilfully" is putting it a bit strongly. As has been said, the panic response was purely health-driven - understandably - with, it is clear, little regard for the destruction of the economy and our liberty. But the government - politically - had no option. And getting us out of lockdown is going to be even more problematic for the government.
The government has a big majority, it has choice, it has agency. What it lacks completely is someone prepared to ignore the media sh8tstorm that unpopular but correct decisions sometimes cause.And the sh8tstorm here would have been massive.
Governments are meant to govern. To lead. That is their function. Sometimes short term public opinion and moreover media reaction, has to be ignored.
I`m mainly with you. But I wonder the extent to which any govrnement truly leads these days.
I`m pretty sure that the government right from the off were cognisant of the economic and liberty arguments, but were (and still are) primarily being advised by health professionals. They would have repeatedly have been accused of having blood on their hands etc if they dared do anything other than a balls-out health response.
Where are the liberals? is the question I want to ask. What of liberty? Where is Ed Davey in all of this? ... silence.
In Blackpool it's more like to be a prozzy that's been round the clock twice and will take her glass eye out for a tenner if you fancy something different.
I think I remember that being a line about a La Rochelle dockside hooker in the novel upon which Das Boot was based. Glass eyed prostitutes are obviously an internationally recognised unit of naval patter.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
On a more serious note, what do we think about Warren as VP nominee? I just can't see it, but she's sitting there at 10/1, a 9% chance or so. I feel like that is twice what it should be, but I haven't fully laid her out.
On the BBC news after covering U.K. news they moved on to “Foreign countries screwing COVID up” in the Number 1 spot - USA , Number 2 Japan.....with Russia galloping up on the inside rail at Number 3.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
Good thing we avoided it though, given that it won't deliver anything until July.
i) Are you without severe covid-19 symptons. ii) Do you have a job still or means of supporting yourself. iii) Are your friends and family all still alive and able to eat with a roof over their heads.
If you can get near 3 out of 3, that's the best case scenario till a vaccine comes out.
I'm afraid it isn't because it could take 1-2 years for a vaccine to come out and be implemented and it doesn't take into account the economic consequences nor the social ones: if our economy is smaller we won't be able to pay the taxes to fund good healthcare meaning many others will die from things like cancer, dementia and other diseases and we will see a massive rise in mental health disorders and a traumatised generation of youth.
Then you have the social consequences of a society where a culture snitching on your neighbours and others to the rozzers becomes embedded, which is perhaps what worries me worst of all.
I understand the frustration but the die is already cast, most of us are going to have our living standards reduced significantly for the next 5 years or more. You may as well accept it now and adjust. Until there is a vaccine life or the economy are not going to return to anything like the old "normal".
I don't agree with your "snitching" point. If the vast majority of us are complying with the lockdown for the sake of the country we are going to get very piss*d off indeed with the arrogant and selfish idiots that think they can flout the rules.
I don't agree with accepting reduced living standards, which can rapidly feed into broader economic self-confidence and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We don't know yet how the world will collectively respond to the economic challenges this virus has thrown up in its aftermath yet and we shouldn't throw our hands up immediately in surrender.
On the snitching point: I disagree. We have seen plenty of examples of spectacularly misjudged public hectoring of people lawfully going about their business, curtain twitchers enjoying spying on their neighbours and shopping them far too much (in some instances out of previous jealously or in pursuit of a petty personal vendetta) and such reports then being enthusiastically pounced on by the rozzers. In the meantime unscrupulous employers who are insisting their employees come into work whilst failing to maintain social distancing are a far bigger issue for the spread of the dynamic, but the police aren't interested. It takes place behind closed doors out of sight and the only social drama people are interested in is the public one.
We see now why collaboration takes place so easily in occupied countries accompanied with a police state. People simply get off on the sense of power they can lever and they have to both see the "crime" and then the enforcement to get that satisfaction. It's like a real life soap where everyone can play.
I think it stinks. And I think defensive arguments like "we can't set a precedent", "if one does it everyone will do it" and similar clichés are just excusing authoritative behaviour and am shocked more people don't think the same.
Whether you "accept" reduced living standards is beside the point. Taxation and inflation are going to rise, the only question is by how much. Unemployment is going to rise steeply even after lockdown ends, many businesses particularly in the retail and leisure will never reopen. For example, I don't see myself going to a restaurant for the rest of this year at least and we used to 3 or 4 times a week.
The bill for all this is going to be gigantic and we are the ones who are going to paying for it one way or another. You are kidding yourself if you think you are going to be maintaining your pre-virus living standard.
You are itching for the lockdown to end so are egging on people breaking it a la Trump. Obviously some people will over step the mark in telling off others, there have always been people like that but comparing the vast majority of people who just want to see the rules fairly apply to everyone to wartime collaborators is ridiculous.
I'd like to say I'm disappointed with such a tetchy response - that also misrepresents what I said - but for you, I'm afraid, it's entirely within character.
Maybe you've sensed there's a danger of making you think too much.
Never takes you long to resort to personal abuse does it?
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
I've actually started ordering takeaways again just because my wife and I became exhausted of cooking and clearing up on top of everything else we have to do, but still only twice a week or so.
Blimey, how busy can your home life be? It's just you, yer Mrs and nipper, isn't it?
We're both working full-time. That means (for me) 18-hour days, every day. Whenever I'm not working I'm looking after the 14-month old so my wife can work, or snatching a few minutes to cook some food, before going back to it.
So, to answer your question: very.
She is sleeping right now. It won't last more than another 30 minutes.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
I've actually started ordering takeaways again just because my wife and I became exhausted of cooking and clearing up on top of everything else we have to do, but still only twice a week or so.
Blimey, how busy can your home life be? It's just you, yer Mrs and nipper, isn't it?
We're both working full-time. That means (for me) 18-hour days, every day. Whenever I'm not working I'm looking after the 14-month old so my wife can work, or snatching a few minutes to cook some food, before going back to it.
So, to answer your question: very.
She is sleeping right now. It won't last more than another 30 minutes.
I struggle to believe that anyone can work 18 hour days let alone every day.
And if they try to do so I'm pretty certain that they're on the way to a major health collapse.
Um. Yeah.
Why do you think I'm so keen for schools and nurseries to re-open?
The only saving grace is that it only applies Monday to Friday.
Are you really saying in the other six hours you manage to do all your housework, shopping, family things, cook, eat, wash and sleep ?
Because I know nobody who works that hard.
And yours is a genuinely dangerous lifestyle.
No. I am working from 5am to 11pm on either salaried work, childcare or cooking meals. I have no time for housework. We sometimes get an hour or two before we go to bed if we're lucky but then we often fill this with work deliverables that have deadlines. I sleep from 11pm to 5am.
I'm not interested in arguing with you. It's the truth. If you don't want to accept it that's your business.
I'm not arguing I'm merely concerned about how risky your lifestyle is.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
Not for many years i did go for the Liberal merger conference! And another one a few years later. I’m not sure what it’s current target market is but I think Foxy has it right.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
And as I said, the EU doesn't have the capability to direct specific companies to manufacture things. Governments do, or at least they can give the right incentives. So it's not like they were ever going to magic up any new supplies, it was just magical thinking from the commission that they would get to the front of the queue because they are the EU.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Any ideas on how high the actual infection rate is ?
Watching the video with the Swedish professor, I thought the interviewer was quite good. He had the figures to hand and asked reasonable questions in an attempt to try and understand what the professors view was and his opinion of what the thinking behind the different countries approaches.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
That wasn't the reason why the UK refused to join. In any case the PPE order is turning up this week. That's thousands of healthcare workers that won't be protected purely because our Government hates the EU.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Any ideas on how high the actual infection rate is ?
My guess (and it is a guess!) Is between 1-2 million in the UK. Perhaps 3% of the population, varying from near zero in parts to more than 10% in some hotspots.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Any ideas on how high the actual infection rate is ?
My guess (and it is a guess!) Is between 1-2 million in the UK. Perhaps 3% of the population, varying from near zero in parts to more than 10% in some hotspots.
0.16% known infection rate (worldometer) - so your 3% implies that 18-19 people have been infected to every known case. I hesitate to question you on this but you did say it was a guess - I think it may be a fair bit higher than this.
I think another aspect that has been overlooked in the national procurement vs EU procurement argument is that we've asked a whole bunch of domestic and international companies to essentially do us a favour and they've agreed. The workers in these companies are British and they want to help the nation through this difficult time so there is pressure for the likes of Airbus to agree to help the government. In Italy we saw the fashion industry answer their government's call to make gowns and masks, in France there was the same reaction.
Fulfilling the EU contract is just like any other for these same companies. The priority is actually to help your own nation first, then everyone else. The EU schemes were always going to be doomed to this kind of failure.
In Blackpool it's more like to be a prozzy that's been round the clock twice and will take her glass eye out for a tenner if you fancy something different.
I think I remember that being a line about a La Rochelle dockside hooker in the novel upon which Das Boot was based. Glass eyed prostitutes are obviously an internationally recognised unit of naval patter.
Strasbourg, not La Rochelle.
Is there a dockside in Strasbourg? At least, one worth patrolling by a hooker? Don't barge crews usually include the wife?
Watching the video with the Swedish professor, I thought the interviewer was quite good. He had the figures to hand and asked reasonable questions in an attempt to try and understand what the professors view was and his opinion of what the thinking behind the different countries approaches.
From Wiki: "Freddie Sayers joined the magazine in 2019 as Executive Editor, having previously been Editor-in-Chief of YouGov and founder of the British news and current affairs website Politics Home."
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
And as I said, the EU doesn't have the capability to direct specific companies to manufacture things. Governments do, or at least they can give the right incentives. So it's not like they were ever going to magic up any new supplies, it was just magical thinking from the commission that they would get to the front of the queue because they are the EU.
As reported on Sky this morning global demand for PPE is up by a mere 5,000 %. Is the EU able to jump the already massive queue?
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
Not for many years i did go for the Liberal merger conference! And another one a few years later. I’m not sure what it’s current target market is but I think Foxy has it right.
I too was at the merger conference. And at conferences in Blackpool prior. A most peculiar place, where one minute you can be on the motorway driving towards it, and the next suddenly driving around the world’s biggest car park, without having turned off. The only place where I have ever got two parking tickets in the same day. The only place where I have had to go down to hotel reception to complain that my room didn’t have a bed, only to be shown how it folds down out of the wardrobe.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
To date we have had just under 15,000 UK deaths from Covid-19. But, if we accept that with community (nursing home, etc) deaths, that the total number of deaths is 20-25K, and if we accept that there is a mortality of around 1%, then we have had 2-2.5million cases in the UK, and only actually identified 100K through testing. This is hopeless. We are around 4% of the population affected (and possibly immune if they survive), so even with lock-down we still have 96% of the population vulnerable, and we have no idea who is in which group. It would be nice if we had someone in change who gave any semblance of having a clue what they were doing. Unless things change radically we are going to be in lock-down for two or three years, and the death-toll will be 500,000.
As reported on Sky this morning global demand for PPE is up by a mere 5,000 %. Is the EU able to jump the already massive queue?
There was a man on the radio the other day, and I think he said that the company he worked for had 20 times their normal orders — I think it was PPE but it might have been some other medical equipment — it doesn't matter how willing they are, it's almost impossible to suddenly increase supply by those sort of levels.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
The difference then was that the US wasn't competing for resources. US companies we producing for the US. Our approach is actually quite close to that, we've created incentives for private companies in the UK to join the national effort to beat the virus. The EU approach is to ask for someone in France to produce something for someone in Spain but the company is French and they know there is also a shortage in France so they will deliver to their own county first.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Any ideas on how high the actual infection rate is ?
My guess (and it is a guess!) Is between 1-2 million in the UK. Perhaps 3% of the population, varying from near zero in parts to more than 10% in some hotspots.
0.16% known infection rate (worldometer) - so your 3% implies that 18-19 people have been infected to every known case. I hesitate to question you on this but you did say it was a guess - I think it may be a fair bit higher than this.
Some US research in California quoted rates of about 50 times more than reported.
It was a "red Brick" university but no idea how accurate this would be.
Undocumented migrants are being deterred from seeking medical attention during the coronavirus pandemic for fear of being reported to immigration authorities, MPs have said.
I see that terrible US term is creeping in. They aren't "undocumented", they are illegal.
To date we have had just under 15,000 UK deaths from Covid-19. But, if we accept that with community (nursing home, etc) deaths, that the total number of deaths is 20-25K, and if we accept that there is a mortality of around 1%, then we have had 2-2.5million cases in the UK, and only actually identified 100K through testing. This is hopeless. We are around 4% of the population affected (and possibly immune if they survive), so even with lock-down we still have 96% of the population vulnerable, and we have no idea who is in which group. It would be nice if we had someone in change who gave any semblance of having a clue what they were doing. Unless things change radically we are going to be in lock-down for two or three years, and the death-toll will be 500,000.
2 to 2.5 million infected at the time the 20-25,000 who have died were infected. Since then it has spread further. I'd say 7 million as of now.
Frankly Sweden's approach seems to make an amount of sense to me, but only time will tell and I struggle to criticise individual nations for going other routes when most of them are doing so, and the scientific and health advice they have been receiving is advising a different course to that of Sweden.
Time for daily exercise I think, while it is not raining.
I saw somewhere earlier today that the approach isn't working. Sweden has had far more deaths per capita than Norway.
Mind you that's not to say it's the best approach as being frank we will only know what approaches actually worked in 3-5 years time if and when we have a vaccine / herd immunity and can look back and see what methods worked best long term.
Sweden has had more deaths per capita than Norway, Denmark and Finland combined hasn't it?
Sadly yes. The three other states combined are at 104 deaths per million of population whilst Sweden is at 139.
That said there is something else at play there because the rates of infection per million for Norway (1290) and Denmark (1221) are pretty much on a par with those of Sweden (1309). So the same proportion of the population appear to be getting the disease in Norway, Denmark and Sweden but the death rate in Sweden is much higher.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Any ideas on how high the actual infection rate is ?
My guess (and it is a guess!) Is between 1-2 million in the UK. Perhaps 3% of the population, varying from near zero in parts to more than 10% in some hotspots.
0.16% known infection rate (worldometer) - so your 3% implies that 18-19 people have been infected to every known case. I hesitate to question you on this but you did say it was a guess - I think it may be a fair bit higher than this.
I reckon 25-30 000 fatalities and a fatality rate of 1.5%, so resolved cases about 3% nationally. It is a very crude ballpark figure.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Growing up in Rochdale I used to go to Blackpool a lot. On holiday quite often and many day trips. Fundamentally Blackpool is a town lost in time. Vast arrays of former B&Bs which I suspect weren't great before and look positively nasty now - but they need to make a living so open to DSS placements with all the joys that brings.
Then we have the attractions. A beach where for decades the water had turds in it. Where the sea comes in with such force that they have had to build huge unattractive concrete walls. Piers where you can enjoy the talents of Roy Chubby Brown or his successors. Endless chippys selling truly dire Fish and Chips, rock shops selling really cheap rock. Arcades. Pubs.
Then we have the big draws. The Pleasure Beach which has some truly fab rides but was financially wobbling before all this broke out. The Sandcastle centre which was cool in 1988. And the Tower complex where they went from "come in and do the bits you want" to "give us £3,000 and go everywhere". And I always used to have the trams. Which have been largely retired and replaced with boring LRV things.
In short, Blackpool is awful. I go now and then to the pleasure beach and nothing else. The olds had a caravan in Lytham St Annes - which is nice. We very rarely took the trip a few miles up the coast to Blackpool. Sadly the other fallen seaside towns are even worse...
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Blackpool is fine - you know what you're going to get. I went to Butlins in Minehead just before it underwent a massive a refurbishment in the late 1980s. It rained all week and we ended up queuing to use the washing machines.- the highlight of the day.
As reported on Sky this morning global demand for PPE is up by a mere 5,000 %. Is the EU able to jump the already massive queue?
There was a man on the radio the other day, and I think he said that the company he worked for had 20 times their normal orders — I think it was PPE but it might have been some other medical equipment — it doesn't matter how willing they are, it's almost impossible to suddenly increase supply by those sort of levels.
Particularly as the manufacture of PPE gowns is still basically a manual operation.
I suspect there is also a lack of capacity for the SMS & other base sheets used to make PPE gowns, the factories of which are not always in the same countries as the PPE manufacturers e.g. Mexico.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
I don't think that accurate. Germany did not adopt a top down war economy until late 1942 under Speer, previously having multiple competing designs and poor delivery. German tank and plane production then took off, peaking in autumn 1944.
Britain also operated a pretty centrally directed war economy from the off in 1939, one reason we won the Battle of Britain, but also why nationalisation of industry was made palatable to the post war electorate. It had been seen in action.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Undocumented migrants are being deterred from seeking medical attention during the coronavirus pandemic for fear of being reported to immigration authorities, MPs have said.
I see that terrible US term is creeping in. They aren't "undocumented", they are illegal.
That's better English.
Legality applies to an act, not a person. The act of immigrating can be illegal, so talking about "illegal immigration" makes sense. A person can't be legal or illegal, so talking about an "illegal immigrant" is clumsy at best, and may just be wrong. "Undocumented immigrant" is clear and makes sense.
Please sir, please sir, which method did the Soviet Union go with?
taking hand outs from the Capitalists?
As I understand it the Soviets were able to concentrate on tank production because they got most of their lorries from the Yanks. 400,000 according to Google.
Undocumented migrants are being deterred from seeking medical attention during the coronavirus pandemic for fear of being reported to immigration authorities, MPs have said.
I see that terrible US term is creeping in. They aren't "undocumented", they are illegal.
That's better English.
Legality applies to an act, not a person. The act of immigrating can be illegal, so talking about "illegal immigration" makes sense. A person can't be legal or illegal, so talking about an "illegal immigrant" is clumsy at best, and may just be wrong. "Undocumented immigrant" is clear and makes sense.
Undocumented migrants are being deterred from seeking medical attention during the coronavirus pandemic for fear of being reported to immigration authorities, MPs have said.
I see that terrible US term is creeping in. They aren't "undocumented", they are illegal.
The Windrush scandal involved legal but undocumented immigrants iirc.
By day deaths numbers are out. Absolutely no sign of an reduction from previous days releases in the -1, -2, -3 days deaths. Basically identical within any "statistical noise" you would expect.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
A thermometer is useful, and only a few quid. I measure my temperature every day before leaving for work.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
Growing up in Rochdale I used to go to Blackpool a lot. On holiday quite often and many day trips. Fundamentally Blackpool is a town lost in time. Vast arrays of former B&Bs which I suspect weren't great before and look positively nasty now - but they need to make a living so open to DSS placements with all the joys that brings.
Then we have the attractions. A beach where for decades the water had turds in it. Where the sea comes in with such force that they have had to build huge unattractive concrete walls. Piers where you can enjoy the talents of Roy Chubby Brown or his successors. Endless chippys selling truly dire Fish and Chips, rock shops selling really cheap rock. Arcades. Pubs.
Then we have the big draws. The Pleasure Beach which has some truly fab rides but was financially wobbling before all this broke out. The Sandcastle centre which was cool in 1988. And the Tower complex where they went from "come in and do the bits you want" to "give us £3,000 and go everywhere". And I always used to have the trams. Which have been largely retired and replaced with boring LRV things.
In short, Blackpool is awful. I go now and then to the pleasure beach and nothing else. The olds had a caravan in Lytham St Annes - which is nice. We very rarely took the trip a few miles up the coast to Blackpool. Sadly the other fallen seaside towns are even worse...
The Yorkshire seaside towns seem to be doing reasonably well still.
Undocumented migrants are being deterred from seeking medical attention during the coronavirus pandemic for fear of being reported to immigration authorities, MPs have said.
I see that terrible US term is creeping in. They aren't "undocumented", they are illegal.
The Windrush scandal involved legal but undocumented immigrants iirc.
Correct. It conflates two different issues. Same in the US, those born in the US to immigrant parents there illegally, is different situation to their parents.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
I went to a local government lawyers’ conference in Blackpool during the terrible rain and floods of Autumn 2000. I no longer fear the pits of Hades as I have seen worse.
It could have been in the Maldives. You would still have been in a room full of local government lawyers.
Britain also operated a pretty centrally directed war economy from the off in 1939, one reason we won the Battle of Britain.
My understanding is that in the UK and US the ownership/running of factories was largely left in private hands. Germany preferred state owned. Hence the giant Wolfsburg plant consumed huge resources but didn't really contribute much to the war effort.
There's one approved design which will begin deliveries next week, it also resulted in the modified CPAP machine. There were failures in the process, definitely, but overall it's been a success. To characterise it as otherwise is incorrect.
If it's a failure the UK needs to fail like that more often.
Indeed. People who look at everything through the "everything the UK does is shit, everything the EU does is great" are grasping at straws right now. You can see it here.
Nearly annoying as the idiots moaning "why did you build those hospitals?"
I remember the posts when the Chinese threw up those hospitals in 10 days that we couldn’t do it here.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
I do think in any analysis of our death rate, particularly in places like London, factors such as there being a large BAME population (and segments of this seem particularly vulnerable) need further examination. Also one should not forget there are plenty of multi-generational households amongst some segments of the BAME population.
As has been mentioned, understanding our death rates also needs to look at the "stay at home if you are ill and don't seek medical help" policy making cases present late in poorer condition. Along with factors such as a British stoicism and reserve at work, as well as a fear of setting foot in medical establishments presently and knowing there has been a near-total prohibition of visitors.
Also whilst hospital may not have been completely overwhelmed in London, we know first hand we were unable to get through to 111 with waiting times going into the hours. We also know from a very close friend that the ambulance system has been very stretched in London. They called for an ambulance when their partner lapsed into unconsciousness and they were worried about his breathing. However this call went through a number of stages to see whether an ambulance would be sent which I was told lasted around 90 minutes before it was agreed an ambulance could be sent. I imagine there will have unfortunately been plenty of deaths at home as a result of this disaster unfolding.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
Aside from the option of giving up and letting the old people die,
1) There seem to be lots of promising *treatments*, so you could keep playing for time while learning more about those
2) There may be more pinpoint ways to push R below 1. The whole lockdown thing may just have been pulled out of some Chinese bureaucrat's arse then everyone repeated it because it was the only thing they'd seen work; There may be more targeted things you can do as you learn more about how the thing spreads, hopefully with less economic disruption.
3) Ongoing mass testing and isolation may work, once you start doing it at scale it should be easier to make testing fast and cheap given a bit of time.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
Please sir, please sir, which method did the Soviet Union go with?
taking hand outs from the Capitalists?
As I understand it the Soviets were able to concentrate on tank production because they got most of their lorries from the Yanks. 400,000 according to Google.
All wars come down to blood and treasure. The USSR had lots of the former, the US plenty of the latter. The USA spent the latter to avoid too grievous a loss of the former, a pragmatic calculation.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
I've actually started ordering takeaways again just because my wife and I became exhausted of cooking and clearing up on top of everything else we have to do, but still only twice a week or so.
Blimey, how busy can your home life be? It's just you, yer Mrs and nipper, isn't it?
We're both working full-time. That means (for me) 18-hour days, every day. Whenever I'm not working I'm looking after the 14-month old so my wife can work, or snatching a few minutes to cook some food, before going back to it.
So, to answer your question: very.
She is sleeping right now. It won't last more than another 30 minutes.
I struggle to believe that anyone can work 18 hour days let alone every day.
And if they try to do so I'm pretty certain that they're on the way to a major health collapse.
Um. Yeah.
Why do you think I'm so keen for schools and nurseries to re-open?
The only saving grace is that it only applies Monday to Friday.
Are you really saying in the other six hours you manage to do all your housework, shopping, family things, cook, eat, wash and sleep ?
Because I know nobody who works that hard.
And yours is a genuinely dangerous lifestyle.
No. I am working from 5am to 11pm on either salaried work, childcare or cooking meals. I have no time for housework. We sometimes get an hour or two before we go to bed if we're lucky but then we often fill this with work deliverables that have deadlines. I sleep from 11pm to 5am.
I'm not interested in arguing with you. It's the truth. If you don't want to accept it that's your business.
What about your time on here? Casino_Royale Posts: 34,782
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
We need testing results within 24hrs max. Anything over a day, is too long.
Britain also operated a pretty centrally directed war economy from the off in 1939, one reason we won the Battle of Britain.
My understanding is that in the UK and US the ownership/running of factories was largely left in private hands. Germany preferred state owned. Hence the giant Wolfsburg plant consumed huge resources but didn't really contribute much to the war effort.
I think it's really hard to read. Outside the US, ruling parties and leaders are almost all seeing very big boiunces in support; but there is a sense that something has shifted in the UK. The damage done to the Labour brand over the last few years has been very severe and it is going to take a hell of a lot for many previously sympathetic voters to take another look. To that extent, I believe a good deal of the Tory support is pretty solid. However, I also think we are moving into such an unprecedented time when just about all previous assumptions - at home and abroad - are going to come under such severe pressure that it woud be very foolsih indeed to predict how public opinion is going to move over the medium to longer term.
Indeed, the latest polls from Germany, Poland and Finland all show the leading governing party doing very well.
The latest German poll has the CDU/CSU on 39% with the SPD on 16%, the Greens on 15%. Pre-virus, the CDU/CSU was only just polling ahead of the Greens in the mid to upper 20s so this is a huge turnround.
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
It was good. But she was given the time and space to develop an argument and explanation.
Our media just isn’t up to standard. Imagine Piers Morgan interrupting her every 3 words.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
That is the problem. China started strict (much stricter than a western democracy ever could) and then decided it wasn't working and ramped things up from there. We have the laxest lockdown of the major Europeans - exercise, leaving house without a document - and, as Angela says, it's about squeezing R0 down by 0.1 at a time. Putting all that together: tighter restrictions. Sorry, but tina.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
The lockdown could be a lot tighter than it is.
Where I live, one has to get a permit from the police to go to the supermarket, no more than once every three days and only one person from a family. No other reason for leaving the house is allowed except for key workers and medical reasons, and there are police at the supermarkets checking permits. Speed cameras have been set to zero to collect number plates and match against permits. The next stage will be banning of hot food deliveries except to the vulnerable, with the drivers moved to supermarket deliveries instead.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Comments
If you look at the history of the Black Death or the Plague you will see that they shut down, in many cases permanently, a lot more than 35% of the economy. That may have been without government involvement, but there was less government involvement in everything anyway in those days.
I am not saying you are wrong, but you over simplify the problem beyond what it will bear.
Governments are meant to govern. To lead. That is their function. Sometimes short term public opinion and moreover media reaction, has to be ignored.
The latest German poll has the CDU/CSU on 39% with the SPD on 16%, the Greens on 15%. Pre-virus, the CDU/CSU was only just polling ahead of the Greens in the mid to upper 20s so this is a huge turnround.
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
Certainly I get the feeling that some of the critics of the Government (but no where near all) will fall into the category of those who will attack them no matter what. Richard Horton certainly fits into this category, currently attacking the Government for not having done enough early enough when, at exactly the time he says they should have been doing more, he was happily tweeting that the virus had low potential to cause large numbers of fatalities because it had only a moderate infection rate and a low fatality rate.
There has to be the recognition that whatever action Government's take will have consequences and will cause people to die. They will be different consequences and different people will die but the idea that we can, with hindsight, thread a path back to the start of this along which no one would have died is just wrong.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
I`m pretty sure that the government right from the off were cognisant of the economic and liberty arguments, but were (and still are) primarily being advised by health professionals. They would have repeatedly have been accused of having blood on their hands etc if they dared do anything other than a balls-out health response.
Where are the liberals? is the question I want to ask. What of liberty? Where is Ed Davey in all of this? ... silence.
Amazingly, the Betfair Dem Nom market now has 11 (ELEVEN!) layable candidates, Biden can be backed at 1.09 and laid at 1.10
Vijay Arbitrage.
Fulfilling the EU contract is just like any other for these same companies. The priority is actually to help your own nation first, then everyone else. The EU schemes were always going to be doomed to this kind of failure.
https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
"Freddie Sayers joined the magazine in 2019 as Executive Editor, having previously been Editor-in-Chief of YouGov and founder of the British news and current affairs website Politics Home."
As reported on Sky this morning global demand for PPE is up by a mere 5,000 %.
Is the EU able to jump the already massive queue?
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-7c92071d305611a474a2a871a7374671
It was a "red Brick" university but no idea how accurate this would be.
I see that terrible US term is creeping in. They aren't "undocumented", they are illegal.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1251496859606167552?s=20
Then we have the attractions. A beach where for decades the water had turds in it. Where the sea comes in with such force that they have had to build huge unattractive concrete walls. Piers where you can enjoy the talents of Roy Chubby Brown or his successors. Endless chippys selling truly dire Fish and Chips, rock shops selling really cheap rock. Arcades. Pubs.
Then we have the big draws. The Pleasure Beach which has some truly fab rides but was financially wobbling before all this broke out. The Sandcastle centre which was cool in 1988. And the Tower complex where they went from "come in and do the bits you want" to "give us £3,000 and go everywhere". And I always used to have the trams. Which have been largely retired and replaced with boring LRV things.
In short, Blackpool is awful. I go now and then to the pleasure beach and nothing else. The olds had a caravan in Lytham St Annes - which is nice. We very rarely took the trip a few miles up the coast to Blackpool. Sadly the other fallen seaside towns are even worse...
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
I suspect there is also a lack of capacity for the SMS & other base sheets used to make PPE gowns, the factories of which are not always in the same countries as the PPE manufacturers e.g. Mexico.
Britain also operated a pretty centrally directed war economy from the off in 1939, one reason we won the Battle of Britain, but also why nationalisation of industry was made palatable to the post war electorate. It had been seen in action.
Legality applies to an act, not a person. The act of immigrating can be illegal, so talking about "illegal immigration" makes sense. A person can't be legal or illegal, so talking about an "illegal immigrant" is clumsy at best, and may just be wrong. "Undocumented immigrant" is clear and makes sense.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
At least when the weather is nice.
Turns out they were right... it took 12 days...
As has been mentioned, understanding our death rates also needs to look at the "stay at home if you are ill and don't seek medical help" policy making cases present late in poorer condition. Along with factors such as a British stoicism and reserve at work, as well as a fear of setting foot in medical establishments presently and knowing there has been a near-total prohibition of visitors.
Also whilst hospital may not have been completely overwhelmed in London, we know first hand we were unable to get through to 111 with waiting times going into the hours. We also know from a very close friend that the ambulance system has been very stretched in London. They called for an ambulance when their partner lapsed into unconsciousness and they were worried about his breathing. However this call went through a number of stages to see whether an ambulance would be sent which I was told lasted around 90 minutes before it was agreed an ambulance could be sent. I imagine there will have unfortunately been plenty of deaths at home as a result of this disaster unfolding.
1) There seem to be lots of promising *treatments*, so you could keep playing for time while learning more about those
2) There may be more pinpoint ways to push R below 1. The whole lockdown thing may just have been pulled out of some Chinese bureaucrat's arse then everyone repeated it because it was the only thing they'd seen work; There may be more targeted things you can do as you learn more about how the thing spreads, hopefully with less economic disruption.
3) Ongoing mass testing and isolation may work, once you start doing it at scale it should be easier to make testing fast and cheap given a bit of time.
Tory Voters
Stay at home
Save the NHS
Save lives
Our media just isn’t up to standard. Imagine Piers Morgan interrupting her every 3 words.
Where I live, one has to get a permit from the police to go to the supermarket, no more than once every three days and only one person from a family. No other reason for leaving the house is allowed except for key workers and medical reasons, and there are police at the supermarkets checking permits. Speed cameras have been set to zero to collect number plates and match against permits. The next stage will be banning of hot food deliveries except to the vulnerable, with the drivers moved to supermarket deliveries instead.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.