Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU scheme has delivered zero
Committing to the EU scheme would have required - at a minimum - some personnel time. Unless you believe those staff have destroyed value in their freed up time then we are better off outside the EU scheme
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
Aside from the option of giving up and letting the old people die,
1) There seem to be lots of promising *treatments*, so you could keep playing for time while learning more about those
2) There may be more pinpoint ways to push R below 1. The whole lockdown thing may just have been pulled out of some Chinese bureaucrat's arse then everyone repeated it because it was the only thing they'd seen work; There may be more targeted things you can do as you learn more about how the thing spreads, hopefully with less economic disruption.
3) Ongoing mass testing and isolation may work, once you start doing it at scale it should be easier to make testing fast and cheap given a bit of time.
Your point 2 is crucial imo -- how does the virus actually spread, and can we reopen places that are relatively safe?
On 3, testing, we are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. If tests are cheap and fast, then false positives don't matter because we can follow those up with more expensive tests. To an extent the same is true of PPE, where good enough solutions are ignored because they do not meet the gold standard.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU scheme has delivered zero
Committing to the EU scheme would have required - at a minimum - some personnel time. Unless you believe those staff have destroyed value in their freed up time then we are better off outside the EU scheme
Worse, I think it would have been a distraction and given us a false sense of security. I'm pretty sure had we been in those schemes our own efforts would have been thwarted by the bean counters as unnecessary.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
Aside from the option of giving up and letting the old people die,
1) There seem to be lots of promising *treatments*, so you could keep playing for time while learning more about those
2) There may be more pinpoint ways to push R below 1. The whole lockdown thing may just have been pulled out of some Chinese bureaucrat's arse then everyone repeated it because it was the only thing they'd seen work; There may be more targeted things you can do as you learn more about how the thing spreads, hopefully with less economic disruption.
3) Ongoing mass testing and isolation may work, once you start doing it at scale it should be easier to make testing fast and cheap given a bit of time.
Your point 2 is crucial imo -- how does the virus actually spread, and can we reopen places that are relatively safe?
On 3, testing, we are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. If tests are cheap and fast, then false positives don't matter because we can follow those up with more expensive tests. To an extent the same is true of PPE, where good enough solutions are ignored because they do not meet the gold standard.
That’s what happens when you put scientists in charge instead of engineers.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Germany will have to be very cautious about easing its lockdown, but at least they have the option of doing so (without killing large numbers of people). There is a glimmer of light at the end of the German tunnel, whereas we appear to be staring into the abyss.
Please sir, please sir, which method did the Soviet Union go with?
taking hand outs from the Capitalists?
As I understand it the Soviets were able to concentrate on tank production because they got most of their lorries from the Yanks. 400,000 according to Google.
And:
More than 4,700 P-39 fighters About 2,400 P-40 fighters Only 203 P-47s More than 2,300 P-63 fighters More than 1,300 Spitfires About 2,900 Hurricanes
About 2,900 A-20 twin-engined bombers About 900 B-25 bombers
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Germany will have to be very cautious about easing its lockdown, but at least they have the option of doing so (without killing large numbers of people). There is a glimmer of light at the end of the German tunnel, whereas we appear to be staring into the abyss.
Indeed. Germany is in a very strong position due to the testing strategy. Oddly we can replicate it here quite easily but we've chosen not to. I don't understand why the questions aren't being asked.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Germany will have to be very cautious about easing its lockdown, but at least they have the option of doing so (without killing large numbers of people). There is a glimmer of light at the end of the German tunnel, whereas we appear to be staring into the abyss.
They have already said 31st August before lots of things will reopen.
The response to Coronavirus is the biggest policy mistake by any British government ever in the history of British governments. Lord North can now relax, wherever he is.
I got called hysterical for saying that on here yesterday. Reading what BoE governor Andrew Bailey says, that the economy will take a 35% hit and struggle to recover from that hit, perhaps some might like to dial down the criticism.
Panic reigns. I see one cabinet minister is even briefing journalists that the government never wanted lockdown but the public did so they went with it.
So its the public's fault, its the virus's fault, its....er....Lets see....Donald Trump's fault....its China's fault, it's the data collectors fault, when in fact it is the government's fault
We are utterly at sea. Rudderless, leaderless, with a broken compass giving us false information and drifting towards an economic whirlpool.
Its actually worse than that, I think. I am struggling to find words for how bad it is.
Whether right or wrong or somewhere in between (!) I do commend you for sticking to this line throughout.
I am far more sympathetic to it than the one pushed by others on here that the government is not to be questioned and we should just follow blindly and keep our mouths shut.
Appreciated.
My reasoning is simply this. Misfortunes of one sort have befallen the British people down the centuries, but nobody running the country has even sought to wilfully destroy an enormous part of the economy as a policy response to those misfortunes. No government or king, ever.
If we can look to our own conduct in the past, surely we can look to the conduct of every single country in the world now (with some very limited, jury-out exceptions) and say that we are doing what every government and king is doing now, everywhere?
If you look at the history of the Black Death or the Plague you will see that they shut down, in many cases permanently, a lot more than 35% of the economy. That may have been without government involvement, but there was less government involvement in everything anyway in those days.
I am not saying you are wrong, but you over simplify the problem beyond what it will bear.
In the early 17th century, theatres closed when deaths reached 30 pee week. Between 1603 and 1613 they were closed for six and a half years. There is some weird thought process going on, that in the past, plagues were just dealt with by letting it happen. For starters, anyo e with enough sense and money/property had scarpered off to a country getaway as soon as humanly possible. The difference, obviously, was lack of travel and localised economies that didn’t rely on national supply lines let alone international ones, so it was easier to block it off in certain locations.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
Just been informed of a large consignment arriving on the unit of long-sleeved gowns. OK for the rest of the weekend by the looks of it.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Merkel was excellent on this yesterday explaing what r=1, 1.1, 1.2 would mean for their health system.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Germany will have to be very cautious about easing its lockdown, but at least they have the option of doing so (without killing large numbers of people). There is a glimmer of light at the end of the German tunnel, whereas we appear to be staring into the abyss.
Indeed. Germany is in a very strong position due to the testing strategy. Oddly we can replicate it here quite easily but we've chosen not to. I don't understand why the questions aren't being asked.
I think i know the answer to it. The government were convinced they had secured millions of working antibody tests. If they had been as advertised, a month ago we would have already been up at German levels of testing, with this faster and more cost effective approach.
But they turned out to be duds and they didn't have a Strand B. Only now are they starting to bring in private companies to increase capacity etc.
Which is why you don’t turn your nose up at an alternative sourcing route. Unless you’re a crazed ideologue.
It's not an alternative sourcing route if quid pro quo is required and you need to share your sources within it.
Let's be blunt there is no such thing as alternative sources, there are only a limited number of factories with more being built. If you already purchase from all of the existing ones and know where the new ones are coming from there are no alternatives.
Now if the EU were creating new factories that would be alternative sources, but they aren't doing that they were just creating a large order by consolidating other orders and sending it to the existing manufacturers.
I don't see any evidence that joining the EU procurement would see an equivalent reduction in supply elsewhere. The UK refused to join the scheme because of anti EU ideology, as evidenced by their shifty after-the-fact justifications for not taking part. Justify it, or not, on that basis.
The EU scheme has delivered zero
Committing to the EU scheme would have required - at a minimum - some personnel time. Unless you believe those staff have destroyed value in their freed up time then we are better off outside the EU scheme
Worse, I think it would have been a distraction and given us a false sense of security. I'm pretty sure had we been in those schemes our own efforts would have been thwarted by the bean counters as unnecessary.
Ventilators is a good example, if we had joined the EU scheme we would have waited months & as you say it would have given a false sense of security, instead we did our own thing & new supplies are coming on stream next week.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
Just been informed of a large consignment arriving on the unit of long-sleeved gowns. OK for the rest of the weekend by the looks of it.
I read somewhere that the government have been shafted by a Chinese supplier again. They placed big orders for the gowns and were promised them for a certain quality to be delivered every so many days, instead they come in drips and drabs, different amounts each time.
Might be the government bullshitting, but it does fit with a lot of countries experiences. Clearly the Chinese companies will promise you whatever, run their factories flat out and just get it to people as and when.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
A thermometer is useful, and only a few quid. I measure my temperature every day before leaving for work.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
Does one use a mercury thermometer these days? Or what does one do, please?
Also, any chance of mentioning the make/model of the oximeter? Maybe as a PM?
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
In need of a tighter lockdown.
I think people will be calling for this if number of deaths don't settle down next week. Certainly no more talk of exit strategies.
If the total numbers of people in hospital with this thing continue to fall, then the number of deaths *MUST* also fall before too much longer. It is simply that the death figures are, as has been pointed out for a long time now, a lagging indicator and the last one that will start to drop.
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Germany will have to be very cautious about easing its lockdown, but at least they have the option of doing so (without killing large numbers of people). There is a glimmer of light at the end of the German tunnel, whereas we appear to be staring into the abyss.
Indeed. Germany is in a very strong position due to the testing strategy. Oddly we can replicate it here quite easily but we've chosen not to. I don't understand why the questions aren't being asked.
I think i know the answer to it. The government were convinced they had secured millions of working antibody tests. If they had been as advertised, a month ago we would have already been up at German levels of testing, with this faster and more cost effective approach.
But they turned out to be duds and they didn't have a Strand B. Only now are they starting to bring in private companies to increase capacity etc.
Yes that's probably right, a cautionary tale for everyone who thinks signing up to the EU schemes was a missed opportunity.
Isn't that the same as our date of death data that gets backfilled?
Yes he explains that in the thread I think
Paul Yowell (@pwyowell) Tweeted: The graph is retrieved by clicking 3x on the arrow in the link. The lag in reporting adds to previous days. Thus yesterday's 4 is now 20; and the total today rises to 1511. But the peak was on 8 April, unless some giant spike is coming. 2/ https://t.co/QpYX4xDAcH
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
It was good. But she was given the time and space to develop an argument and explanation.
Our media just isn’t up to standard. Imagine Piers Morgan interrupting her every 3 words.
Quite. I've said for a long time that German media are better because they give the chance to hear both sides of an argument put without interruption - we have got locked into the celebrity interviewer cult, which people watch for fun rather than information. A typical German viewer won't even know or care who the interviewer is, whereas we know Paxman/Humphries/Kuensberg better than we know Ministers.
I once had 20 minutes on R4 to discuss an issue in detail - it was an amazing experience and I never expect to hear, let alome participate, in one again.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
A German government spokesman was claiming a few days ago the current R is at 0.7, with a fairly similar level of lockdown as the UK, but started about 10 days earlier.
He also said it can very quickly rise above 1 again.
Germany will have to be very cautious about easing its lockdown, but at least they have the option of doing so (without killing large numbers of people). There is a glimmer of light at the end of the German tunnel, whereas we appear to be staring into the abyss.
Indeed. Germany is in a very strong position due to the testing strategy. Oddly we can replicate it here quite easily but we've chosen not to. I don't understand why the questions aren't being asked.
I think i know the answer to it. The government were convinced they had secured millions of working antibody tests. If they had been as advertised, a month ago we would have already been up at German levels of testing, with this faster and more cost effective approach.
But they turned out to be duds and they didn't have a Strand B. Only now are they starting to bring in private companies to increase capacity etc.
Yes that's probably right, a cautionary tale for everyone who thinks signing up to the EU schemes was a missed opportunity.
They did also gives several million to a British company to develop a test, but they seem totally unable to make any progress of it.
Doesn't excuse not beg, borrowing and stealing every bit of lab capacity in the private sector. We still wouldn't be able to match Germany, but would have increased capacity a lot faster.
Sweden now has the 2nd highest deaths per million population at 150 only Switzerland at 155 is higher
What? You have cut off the top of the spreadsheet. Belgium Spain Italy France UK and NL are all higher. Belgium Spain Italy all have more than twice the number.
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
It was good. But she was given the time and space to develop an argument and explanation.
Our media just isn’t up to standard. Imagine Piers Morgan interrupting her every 3 words.
Quite. I've said for a long time that German media are better because they give the chance to hear both sides of an argument put without interruption - we have got locked into the celebrity interviewer cult, which people watch for fun rather than information.
I once had 20 minutes on R4 to discuss an issue in detail - it was an amazing experience and I never expect to hear, let alomne participate, in one again.
Indeed. It takes too to Tango. Too many pundits are interesting only in challenging and gotchas.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
In need of a tighter lockdown.
I think people will be calling for this if number of deaths don't settle down next week. Certainly no more talk of exit strategies.
If the total numbers of people in hospital with this thing continue to fall, then the number of deaths *MUST* also fall before too much longer. It is simply that he death figures are, as has been pointed out for a long time now, a lagging indicator and the last one that will start to drop.
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
hospital bed occupancy is inching down - but it appears to be inching down across all regions.
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
It was good. But she was given the time and space to develop an argument and explanation.
Our media just isn’t up to standard. Imagine Piers Morgan interrupting her every 3 words.
Quite. I've said for a long time that German media are better because they give the chance to hear both sides of an argument put without interruption - we have got locked into the celebrity interviewer cult, which people watch for fun rather than information. A typical German viewer won't even know or care who the interviewer is, whereas we know Paxman/Humphries/Kuensberg better than we know Ministers.
I once had 20 minutes on R4 to discuss an issue in detail - it was an amazing experience and I never expect to hear, let alome participate, in one again.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
A thermometer is useful, and only a few quid. I measure my temperature every day before leaving for work.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
Does one use a mercury thermometer these days? Or what does one do, please?
Also, any chance of mentioning the make/model of the oximeter? Maybe as a PM?
Sweden now has the 2nd highest deaths per million population at 150 only Switzerland at 155 is higher
No, aside from statelet of San Marino, Belgium has the highest deaths per million population at 471, according to Worldometer figures (which may or may not be truly indicative).
Sweden now has the 2nd highest deaths per million population at 150 only Switzerland at 155 is higher
No, aside from statelet of San Marino, Belgium has the highest deaths per million population at 471, according to Worldometer figures (which may or may not be truly indicative).
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
A thermometer is useful, and only a few quid. I measure my temperature every day before leaving for work.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
Does one use a mercury thermometer these days? Or what does one do, please?
Also, any chance of mentioning the make/model of the oximeter? Maybe as a PM?
Everybodies favourite model from UW has been updated. Their prediction for todays figures anywhere between 150 and 4150 deaths...and still not the peak. And now back up to 37k deaths, with low of 17k...anybody told them that by the time we meet their estimated peak we will have exceeded the low figure.
I can't believe anybody is taking this seriously, but i keep seeing it being quoted.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
A thermometer is useful, and only a few quid. I measure my temperature every day before leaving for work.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
Does one use a mercury thermometer these days? Or what does one do, please?
Also, any chance of mentioning the make/model of the oximeter? Maybe as a PM?
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
In need of a tighter lockdown.
I think people will be calling for this if number of deaths don't settle down next week. Certainly no more talk of exit strategies.
If the total numbers of people in hospital with this thing continue to fall, then the number of deaths *MUST* also fall before too much longer. It is simply that he death figures are, as has been pointed out for a long time now, a lagging indicator and the last one that will start to drop.
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
hospital bed occupancy is inching down - but it appears to be inching down across all regions.
The graph of specific data for hospitalisations with Covid-19, as shown every day at the UK Government briefing, shows a large and consistent enough fall in London for it to seem reasonable to conclude that the capital is past peak. The Midlands might also be headed the same way. The remainder of the regions appear to be broadly flat, but if the lockdown is working in London as it appears to be then there's no reason to suppose that the decline in hospitalisations in the rest of the country won't start to follow suit in the near future.
Presumably if having previously had the virus does not give you immunity then herd immunity will never be reached until a vaccine is given to enough of the population.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
That is the problem. China started strict (much stricter than a western democracy ever could) and then decided it wasn't working and ramped things up from there. We have the laxest lockdown of the major Europeans - exercise, leaving house without a document - and, as Angela says, it's about squeezing R0 down by 0.1 at a time. Putting all that together: tighter restrictions. Sorry, but tina.
Firstly, we should have done if much earlier, much stricter, closed borders and isolated sufferers away from others. Too late (and those who whinged about having any lockdown, allied with having a lockdown that lets people mix every hour of the day, are its architects).
From where we are? Do the same as the above but, because of where we are, it will take longer and it will hurt the economy more. My fury at those who refused to lock down when it would have worked is only getting greater as time goes on. I sincerely hope that none of these same people are whinging about ending the lockdown now or soon, they’ve done this country enough damage already.
On top of that, the testing regime that I hoped would enable us to get out of this mess is not happening. None of them work. After a bit of hope, another demoralising day.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
In need of a tighter lockdown.
I think people will be calling for this if number of deaths don't settle down next week. Certainly no more talk of exit strategies.
If the total numbers of people in hospital with this thing continue to fall, then the number of deaths *MUST* also fall before too much longer. It is simply that he death figures are, as has been pointed out for a long time now, a lagging indicator and the last one that will start to drop.
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
hospital bed occupancy is inching down - but it appears to be inching down across all regions.
The graph of specific data for hospitalisations with Covid-19, as shown every day at the UK Government briefing, shows a large and consistent enough fall in London for it to seem reasonable to conclude that the capital is past peak. The Midlands might also be headed the same way. The remainder of the regions appear to be broadly flat, but if the lockdown is working in London as it appears to be then there's no reason to suppose that the decline in hospitalisations in the rest of the country won't start to follow suit in the near future.
Latest numbers from my local hospital in the Midlands seem to have peaked on 13.4.20
Presumably if having previously had the virus does not give you immunity then herd immunity will never be reached until a vaccine is given to enough of the population.
Yes, if it confers no immunity then we are in big trouble. (Even bigger trouble than we are already in.)
I listened to the Unherd interview. I wish the interviewer had asked the expert *why* he had certain beliefs, rather than just testing what those beliefs were. For example, the expert believed that the IFR of this virus is around 0.1%. I would love to know on what evidence he bases that belief. And I would love it to be true (but I think it isn't)!
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
With an unknown virus it is best to assume the most likely scenario. Most viral diseases do result in immunity to the exact specific virus that caused them. HIV is an unusual virus that is an exception. Sometimes a different virus can cause the same syndrome such as a cold or the flu. There are many famous people who have had coronavirus already, but nobody famous has got it twice yet.
Everybodies favourite model from UW has been updated. Their prediction for todays figures anywhere between 150 and 4150 deaths...and still not the peak. And now back up to 37k deaths, with low of 17k...anybody told them that by the time we meet their estimated peak we will have exceeded the low figure.
I can't believe anybody is taking this seriously, but i keep seeing it being quoted.
There in enormous amount of GIGO at the moment. Hopeless models, data being reported as a daily total when it's merely the date a report was received, wildly differing approaches to recording cases, and official figures that bear no relation to reality (like those Ecuador reports that would see them topping most tables). I'm certainly glad that I don't have to digest it all and draw lessons from it.
Everybodies favourite model from UW has been updated. Their prediction for todays figures anywhere between 150 and 4150 deaths...and still not the peak. And now back up to 37k deaths, with low of 17k...anybody told them that by the time we meet their estimated peak we will have exceeded the low figure.
I can't believe anybody is taking this seriously, but i keep seeing it being quoted.
Did they try another seed in their random number generator?
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
In need of a tighter lockdown.
I think people will be calling for this if number of deaths don't settle down next week. Certainly no more talk of exit strategies.
If the total numbers of people in hospital with this thing continue to fall, then the number of deaths *MUST* also fall before too much longer. It is simply that he death figures are, as has been pointed out for a long time now, a lagging indicator and the last one that will start to drop.
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
hospital bed occupancy is inching down - but it appears to be inching down across all regions.
The graph of specific data for hospitalisations with Covid-19, as shown every day at the UK Government briefing, shows a large and consistent enough fall in London for it to seem reasonable to conclude that the capital is past peak. The Midlands might also be headed the same way. The remainder of the regions appear to be broadly flat, but if the lockdown is working in London as it appears to be then there's no reason to suppose that the decline in hospitalisations in the rest of the country won't start to follow suit in the near future.
Latest numbers from my local hospital in the Midlands seem to have peaked on 13.4.20
Makes sense - about 3 weeks after lockdown. Hopefully, like Italy, we see numbers declining next week (the hospital admissions would tentatively support this).
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
In need of a tighter lockdown.
I think people will be calling for this if number of deaths don't settle down next week. Certainly no more talk of exit strategies.
If the total numbers of people in hospital with this thing continue to fall, then the number of deaths *MUST* also fall before too much longer. It is simply that he death figures are, as has been pointed out for a long time now, a lagging indicator and the last one that will start to drop.
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
hospital bed occupancy is inching down - but it appears to be inching down across all regions.
The graph of specific data for hospitalisations with Covid-19, as shown every day at the UK Government briefing, shows a large and consistent enough fall in London for it to seem reasonable to conclude that the capital is past peak. The Midlands might also be headed the same way. The remainder of the regions appear to be broadly flat, but if the lockdown is working in London as it appears to be then there's no reason to suppose that the decline in hospitalisations in the rest of the country won't start to follow suit in the near future.
yeah, I know, I've got the raw data in front of me -_-
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
Just been informed of a large consignment arriving on the unit of long-sleeved gowns. OK for the rest of the weekend by the looks of it.
Excellent.
What do you think of yesterdays advice re alternatives?
Are they less safe, but still pretty safe?
Is there a plentiful supply of the alternatives?
What impact will it have on intubation and ventilation work?
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
I have never been to Blackpool but always had a mild curiosity about the place. I think it is probably unfair to compare it now to how it was in its late 19th and early 20th century heyday.
Presumably if having previously had the virus does not give you immunity then herd immunity will never be reached until a vaccine is given to enough of the population.
If having previously had the virus doesn't give you immunity (for a decent amount of time), then it's probably not going to be possible to find a vaccine.
Everybodies favourite model from UW has been updated. Their prediction for todays figures anywhere between 150 and 4150 deaths...and still not the peak. And now back up to 37k deaths, with low of 17k...anybody told them that by the time we meet their estimated peak we will have exceeded the low figure.
I can't believe anybody is taking this seriously, but i keep seeing it being quoted.
The IHME model itself is a joke - just fitting a curve to the deaths, and justifying the choice of curve by "we tried other curves but this one fit the data the best". The curve chosen is the cdf of the Gaussian distribution, which no theory justifies as a cumulative total of any kind of infectious model. Not peer-reviewed, and I hope it will be rejected by any self-respecting publication. Gives science a bad name.
(BTW I share your concern about the Imperial model's lack of open code, but I note that very much the same results were obtained independently, using a different model but similiar-ish assumptions, by LSHTM. This gives a lot more credence to both the models and the implementations.)
I have just come back from my legally permitted exercise walk (in the People's Republic of Lambeth). Seemed to me that traffic was busier than last Saturday, pedestrian traffic busier than a normal Saturday! Lots of cyclists and joggers, and groups of people spread out over narrow pavements. I cut short my walk.
I would love to be involved in the regeneration of Blackpool one day. It is my long term ambition to work on projects like that. There is regeneration happening there, but it seems to be based mainly on horrid old buildings being pulled down and replaced by slightly less horrid modern ones. Which is a step forward but not likely to result in a return to former glories.
I've been ruminating on an idea for the city that would involve the gradual development of zones based on the world's great cultures/cities. They already have the Eiffel Tower so add to that the Arc de Triomphe, and make it look a bit like the Las Vegas version of Paris. Then do New York, etc. I don't know anyone in the sector so I haven't anyone to share it with at present.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
I have just come back from my legally permitted exercise walk (in the People's Republic of Lambeth). Seemed to me that traffic was busier than last Saturday, pedestrian traffic busier than a normal Saturday! Lots of cyclists and joggers, and groups of people spread out over narrow pavements. I cut short my walk.
I think lockdown is starting to crumble here.
Yesterday afternoon when I went out for a walk the roads to Cannock Chase were all pretty much as normal. Today, rather less so, but it was pissing it down and only 8am.
More testing has become a bit of a slogan, a target, something to attack the government and a panacea. Achieving "more testing" will indeed be an important factor in managing and defeating the disease but I think we need to be a bit more critical in thinking about this topic.
1. Much depends on the accuracy and speed of analysis of any given test as well as availability. 2. Inaccurate tests may be worse than no testing if their results are given too much weight for tactical decisions like when someone can return to work.
If nurse was sick with Covid symptoms would they really be brought back into the front line earlier by a negative test? Apart from risking their well being there is the chance of a false negative test and therefore exposing patients to the virus. More likely the set minimum isolation would still be observed.
If a doctor has tested positive they are not going to be sent out without protective gear because they MAY have resistance to infection.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
I have never been to Blackpool but always had a mild curiosity about the place. I think it is probably unfair to compare it now to how it was in its late 19th and early 20th century heyday.
Imagine everyone who wouldn't want to meet down a dark back-alley put into a single place whilst being completely frazzled out of their minds 24/7 on booze/drugs and you'll get a rough idea.
The response to Coronavirus is the biggest policy mistake by any British government ever in the history of British governments. Lord North can now relax, wherever he is.
I got called hysterical for saying that on here yesterday. Reading what BoE governor Andrew Bailey says, that the economy will take a 35% hit and struggle to recover from that hit, perhaps some might like to dial down the criticism.
Panic reigns. I see one cabinet minister is even briefing journalists that the government never wanted lockdown but the public did so they went with it.
So its the public's fault, its the virus's fault, its....er....Lets see....Donald Trump's fault....its China's fault, it's the data collectors fault, when in fact it is the government's fault
We are utterly at sea. Rudderless, leaderless, with a broken compass giving us false information and drifting towards an economic whirlpool.
Its actually worse than that, I think. I am struggling to find words for how bad it is.
Whether right or wrong or somewhere in between (!) I do commend you for sticking to this line throughout.
I am far more sympathetic to it than the one pushed by others on here that the government is not to be questioned and we should just follow blindly and keep our mouths shut.
Appreciated.
My reasoning is simply this. Misfortunes of one sort have befallen the British people down the centuries, but nobody running the country has even sought to wilfully destroy an enormous part of the economy as a policy response to those misfortunes. No government or king, ever.
If we can look to our own conduct in the past, surely we can look to the conduct of every single country in the world now (with some very limited, jury-out exceptions) and say that we are doing what every government and king is doing now, everywhere?
If you look at the history of the Black Death or the Plague you will see that they shut down, in many cases permanently, a lot more than 35% of the economy. That may have been without government involvement, but there was less government involvement in everything anyway in those days.
I am not saying you are wrong, but you over simplify the problem beyond what it will bear.
In the early 17th century, theatres closed when deaths reached 30 pee week. Between 1603 and 1613 they were closed for six and a half years. There is some weird thought process going on, that in the past, plagues were just dealt with by letting it happen. For starters, anyo e with enough sense and money/property had scarpered off to a country getaway as soon as humanly possible. The difference, obviously, was lack of travel and localised economies that didn’t rely on national supply lines let alone international ones, so it was easier to block it off in certain locations.
It is true that during the Black Death there was a flight to the country due to the belief that one was safer there, but it was an illusion. Rural death rates were as high as in the town, because it was the rats (or more specifically the fleas in colonies of rats) that spread the plague and infestations were just as likely in the countryside.
Peter Frankopan's book The Silk Roads has an excellent chapter on this.
It points out, incidentally, that long term the disease helped to change the social structure and facilitate the growth of economic activity and social mobility in the succeeding period, but it took a while.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
I have never been to Blackpool but always had a mild curiosity about the place. I think it is probably unfair to compare it now to how it was in its late 19th and early 20th century heyday.
Imagine everyone who wouldn't want to meet down a dark back-alley put into a single place whilst being completely frazzled out of their minds 24/7 on booze/drugs and you'll get a rough idea.
The air travel and tourism industry is going to be totally screwed by this, there's going to be an awful lot of bankruptcies and redundancies across the sector. Not a good time to be an airline or a plane manufacturer.
There's going to be a general aversion to being very close to others for a long time to come, and that definitely includes queues to check in, clear the security theatre and sit in an economy-class seat for hours on end. Countries that rely on inbound tourism (Spain and Greece again) are going to suffer massively in the aftermath as people choose to holiday locally rather than fly abroad.
Business travel will also be down, as people have quickly adapted to remote working and realise that Skype and Webex can achieve the majority of what an in-person meeting can do, for a fraction of the cost. Conferences and exhibitions are also going to be very difficult for the next few years.
On the positive side, it will be good news for old, neglected seaside towns such as Blackpool and Southend.
Only for a couple of weeks. Once someone you know has been to Blackpool I suspect their stories will stop any friends, acquaintances and even mortal enemies from go there.
Blackpool only looks like a holiday destination to somebody who has never been to the Mediterranean (or even seen the Mediterranean on telly). Its heyday was based on mass emigrations from the Lancashire mill towns by people who fitted those criteria. Itr's not coming back.
Dunno about that, there's a not insignificant group of people in the West of Scotland who go to Blackpool AND Benidorm every year (or used to). Whether Benidorm represents the Med very much is another thing.
There is a lot of snobbishness in the disdain for Blackpool and Benidorm it’s what some people want and enjoy, I wouldn’t go to Benidorm May to October but four days out of season it can be good fun and good value for money. It’s not a cultural appreciation trip just a very affordable change of scenery and a break from routine.
Have you ever been to Blackpool? No caricature can do justice at conveying how infinitely awful it is. (And I speak as someone who used to go on family holidays to Butlins Minehead.)
I have never been to Blackpool but always had a mild curiosity about the place. I think it is probably unfair to compare it now to how it was in its late 19th and early 20th century heyday.
Imagine everyone who wouldn't want to meet down a dark back-alley put into a single place whilst being completely frazzled out of their minds 24/7 on booze/drugs and you'll get a rough idea.
Presumably if having previously had the virus does not give you immunity then herd immunity will never be reached until a vaccine is given to enough of the population.
If having previously had the virus doesn't give you immunity (for a decent amount of time), then it's probably not going to be possible to find a vaccine.
My limited understanding is that this is not necessarily the case. It's not the virus that the best vaccines are going to target, it's the receptor-binding proteins. By creating a protein inhibitor antibody response it doesn't matter how often the body takes on board the virus, it can't gain a foothold.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Presumably if having previously had the virus does not give you immunity then herd immunity will never be reached until a vaccine is given to enough of the population.
If having previously had the virus doesn't give you immunity (for a decent amount of time), then it's probably not going to be possible to find a vaccine.
In the end it will be just two people bickering on a Nighthawks thread that goes on indefinitely until one of them realises the other is a bot.
with all 6 worst-hit covid-19 states having Democrat governors, can anyone explain with facts where the responsibility lies between federal government and state?
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
"Government's should pay attention..." No they shouldn't, you loud-mouthed self-important twat, Paul Yowell.
They should only pay attention to people who have a semblance of knowing what the fuck they are talking about. Those who have access to a computer and a strong opinion have no right whatsoever to inflict their opinions on Govt. at this time. And I happily include myself in that number.
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
Just been informed of a large consignment arriving on the unit of long-sleeved gowns. OK for the rest of the weekend by the looks of it.
Excellent.
What do you think of yesterdays advice re alternatives?
Are they less safe, but still pretty safe?
Is there a plentiful supply of the alternatives?
What impact will it have on intubation and ventilation work?
It is like Health and Safety saying that you no longer need scaffolding to paint your house. A chair balanced on a table is fine...
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Please sir, please sir, which method did the Soviet Union go with?
taking hand outs from the Capitalists?
Taking the deaths for them as well, would have been a different kettle of fish if they had not been there.
Yes Malc, how altruistic of them to come to our aid like that.
Nice of the communist union bods to you know, get behind the war effort when their mates in Moscow got involved too
Good or bad the crap over here that we won the war single handedly is pretty pathetic. It would have been much different if the Russians had not been doing the hard slog they did, even if they wree doing to help themselves.
Blackpool: Imagine everyone who [you] wouldn't want to meet down a dark back-alley put into a single place whilst being completely frazzled out of their minds 24/7 on booze/drugs and you'll get a rough idea.
I went to Bexhill on Sea a few years ago, another faded seaside town. I had the weird feeling that everyone was either <25 and pushing a pram, or >65 with a walking stick.
Perhaps if people start going to these places on holiday, they will stop being dumping grounds for the unwanted?
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
Just been informed of a large consignment arriving on the unit of long-sleeved gowns. OK for the rest of the weekend by the looks of it.
Excellent.
What do you think of yesterdays advice re alternatives?
Are they less safe, but still pretty safe?
Is there a plentiful supply of the alternatives?
What impact will it have on intubation and ventilation work?
It is like Health and Safety saying that you no longer need scaffolding to paint your house. A chair balanced on a table is fine...
It may be it may not be. The virus is out in the wild and everyone will at some point or other have to catch it unless we get a vaccine or herd immunity.
It will only be when we look back that we will discover which countries did well and how the first lockdown, impacted the unavoidable subsequent ones.
"Government's should pay attention..." No they shouldn't, you loud-mouthed self-important twat, Paul Yowell.
They should only pay attention to people who have a semblance of knowing what the fuck they are talking about. Those who have access to a computer and a strong opinion have no right whatsoever to inflict their opinions on Govt. at this time. And I happily include myself in that number.
I was momentarily insulted, until I realised you were addressing Mr Yowell. Still, if the cap fits...
If the lockdown can't push R much below 1, and the virus doesn't imbue immunity on cure, where does that leave us ?
We go super strict, close the borders and try to eradicate it. We then have a fast monitoring and tracing regime in place to deal with sparking embers. And look for effective therapies to find a way to live with it.
In the mean time the Doctors who havent already died will receive advice to wear a Burberry baseball cap whilst staying inside a JCB cab during intubation and Ventilation process!
Just been informed of a large consignment arriving on the unit of long-sleeved gowns. OK for the rest of the weekend by the looks of it.
Excellent.
What do you think of yesterdays advice re alternatives?
Are they less safe, but still pretty safe?
Is there a plentiful supply of the alternatives?
What impact will it have on intubation and ventilation work?
It is like Health and Safety saying that you no longer need scaffolding to paint your house. A chair balanced on a table is fine...
I would love to be involved in the regeneration of Blackpool one day. It is my long term ambition to work on projects like that. There is regeneration happening there, but it seems to be based mainly on horrid old buildings being pulled down and replaced by slightly less horrid modern ones. Which is a step forward but not likely to result in a return to former glories.
I've been ruminating on an idea for the city that would involve the gradual development of zones based on the world's great cultures/cities. They already have the Eiffel Tower so add to that the Arc de Triomphe, and make it look a bit like the Las Vegas version of Paris. Then do New York, etc. I don't know anyone in the sector so I haven't anyone to share it with at present.
My foundation helped with Blackburn - we start with local museums as they can add as a focal point for a community
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Please sir, please sir, which method did the Soviet Union go with?
taking hand outs from the Capitalists?
Taking the deaths for them as well, would have been a different kettle of fish if they had not been there.
Yes Malc, how altruistic of them to come to our aid like that.
Nice of the communist union bods to you know, get behind the war effort when their mates in Moscow got involved too
Good or bad the crap over here that we won the war single handedly is pretty pathetic. It would have been much different if the Russians had not been doing the hard slog they did, even if they wree doing to help themselves.
I am not a WW2 expert, especially the war in the East, but on the face of it it confuses me why Japan did not invade Russia from the other side. Had that happened, I would think Russia would have been overcome. So good news for all concerned they decided to have a bash at China instead.
I think rates of infection vary more with testing rate than disease. In the UK we have a policy against community testing, just inpatients, so the numbers mean very little.
I think that countries that test early, not just with swabs but also blood tests for inflammatory markers, low lymphocytes, and early CT scanning have better outcomes, but just my hunch.
Belatedly vaguely thinking that, living alone, I ought to get hold of an oxygen monitor (I don't have a thermometer, but assume I'll know if I've got a high temperature). Looking on Amazon, there is a gigantic range from about £10 to £250. For example "AFAC Oxygen Saturation Monitor, Pulse Oximeter Fingertip Adult Child Paediatric, Test for Sp02 Blood Concentration, Heart Rate with Batteries and Lanyard" for £25.
I've no idea if that's a useful device, or indeed how to use it usefully to see if I get the virus or am getting through it if not - main advantage would be to measure if it had reached the stage where a 111/999 call was needed.
Any advice?
A thermometer is useful, and only a few quid. I measure my temperature every day before leaving for work.
I got a basic £15 pulse oximeter from Amazon. It is easy to use and gives the same readings as our machines at work. The fancier ones do perfusion index too, but that is icing on the cake.
Does one use a mercury thermometer these days? Or what does one do, please?
Also, any chance of mentioning the make/model of the oximeter? Maybe as a PM?
Mercury thermometers are fine, but no longer sold, I think.
I bought the AGPTEK pulse oximeter, but no longer available. They all look pretty much of a muchness to me. The £26 one looks fine.
I would love to be involved in the regeneration of Blackpool one day. It is my long term ambition to work on projects like that. There is regeneration happening there, but it seems to be based mainly on horrid old buildings being pulled down and replaced by slightly less horrid modern ones. Which is a step forward but not likely to result in a return to former glories.
I've been ruminating on an idea for the city that would involve the gradual development of zones based on the world's great cultures/cities. They already have the Eiffel Tower so add to that the Arc de Triomphe, and make it look a bit like the Las Vegas version of Paris. Then do New York, etc. I don't know anyone in the sector so I haven't anyone to share it with at present.
My foundation helped with Blackburn - we start with local museums as they can add as a focal point for a community
That sounds wonderful. If you have a link to any more info about the project, I'd like to read up some time.
It may be it may not be. The virus is out in the wild and everyone will at some point or other have to catch it unless we get a vaccine or herd immunity.
It will only be when we look back that we will discover which countries did well and how the first lockdown, impacted the unavoidable subsequent ones.
All of that may be true but the most damning feature of those dither days isn't the willy nilly attitude to lockdown. It's the utter failure to prepare 1. Testing kits and 2. PPE.
There is nothing, absolutely nothing, by which it is possible to defend this Government's handling. It is Boris' good fortune that he's immensely popular, especially having very nearly taken one for the team.
And, get this, 100,000 passengers are still alighting at Heathrow every week without screening. It's staggering. Absolutely staggering.
I think it's really hard to read. Outside the US, ruling parties and leaders are almost all seeing very big boiunces in support; but there is a sense that something has shifted in the UK. The damage done to the Labour brand over the last few years has been very severe and it is going to take a hell of a lot for many previously sympathetic voters to take another look. To that extent, I believe a good deal of the Tory support is pretty solid. However, I also think we are moving into such an unprecedented time when just about all previous assumptions - at home and abroad - are going to come under such severe pressure that it woud be very foolsih indeed to predict how public opinion is going to move over the medium to longer term.
Indeed, the latest polls from Germany, Poland and Finland all show the leading governing party doing very well.
The latest German poll has the CDU/CSU on 39% with the SPD on 16%, the Greens on 15%. Pre-virus, the CDU/CSU was only just polling ahead of the Greens in the mid to upper 20s so this is a huge turnround.
I said last night I thought Merkel's explanation of the reasons for and issues with lock down was superb and miles in front of anything Raab and Hancock have provided.
The issue of who will follow Merkel is due to be decided next weekend. I'm no expert in internal CDU politics but it seems Armin Laschet is likely to defeat Friedrich Merx though how any successor will follow Merkel remains to be seen.
It was good. But she was given the time and space to develop an argument and explanation.
Our media just isn’t up to standard. Imagine Piers Morgan interrupting her every 3 words.
Boris, Raab or Hancock would have delivered that if only the journos wouldn't interrupt. Really?
I said this at the time and I will keep saying it. That fateful week and a half will be looked back on as the choice that condemned the British economy and cost lives in the long run. In time, we will be able to put names to this disaster, the members of SAGE who argued for ‘letting the virus pass through the population’. We could have had a shorter, harsher lockdown and the economy would have been better placed, instead we are facing months longer and the sheer laxity of it will see deaths increase week on week with the r0 being allowed to remain too high.
The EU's plan was to just go to the market with a big order - that doesn't work when the market is already at capacity, it's better to grab the bits you can get yourself.
There are, as ever, some interesting parallels from WW2.
Socialist Germany went with a top-down state controlled policy, the US with directed free-market. The US method worked much better.
Please sir, please sir, which method did the Soviet Union go with?
taking hand outs from the Capitalists?
Taking the deaths for them as well, would have been a different kettle of fish if they had not been there.
Yes Malc, how altruistic of them to come to our aid like that.
Nice of the communist union bods to you know, get behind the war effort when their mates in Moscow got involved too
Good or bad the crap over here that we won the war single handedly is pretty pathetic. It would have been much different if the Russians had not been doing the hard slog they did, even if they wree doing to help themselves.
I am not a WW2 expert, especially the war in the East, but on the face of it it confuses me why Japan did not invade Russia from the other side. Had that happened, I would think Russia would have been overcome. So good news for all concerned they decided to have a bash at China instead.
The Japanese were already having a bash at China (and Korea), from the mid-1930s onwards. They did also fight a nasty little border clash with the Soviets at Khalkin Gol in 1938 but got a very bloody nose. But no idea myself why they didn't ally themselves properly with the Germans.
I am not a WW2 expert, especially the war in the East, but on the face of it it confuses me why Japan did not invade Russia from the other side. Had that happened, I would think Russia would have been overcome. So good news for all concerned they decided to have a bash at China instead.
Didn't they need natural resources? Getting those meant treading on Uncle Sam's toes.
Comments
Committing to the EU scheme would have required - at a minimum - some personnel time. Unless you believe those staff have destroyed value in their freed up time then we are better off outside the EU scheme
And face coverings. Not necessarily thongs.
On 3, testing, we are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. If tests are cheap and fast, then false positives don't matter because we can follow those up with more expensive tests. To an extent the same is true of PPE, where good enough solutions are ignored because they do not meet the gold standard.
South korea know for every case and Germany have sampled from their testing pool to try and get an idea of how different people caught it.
More than 4,700 P-39 fighters
About 2,400 P-40 fighters
Only 203 P-47s
More than 2,300 P-63 fighters
More than 1,300 Spitfires
About 2,900 Hurricanes
About 2,900 A-20 twin-engined bombers
About 900 B-25 bombers
About 700 Dakota transports
Totally overwhelmed by July at 1.2 she said
But they turned out to be duds and they didn't have a Strand B. Only now are they starting to bring in private companies to increase capacity etc.
Ventilators is a good example, if we had joined the EU scheme we would have waited months & as you say it would have given a false sense of security, instead we did our own thing & new supplies are coming on stream next week.
Might be the government bullshitting, but it does fit with a lot of countries experiences. Clearly the Chinese companies will promise you whatever, run their factories flat out and just get it to people as and when.
Also, any chance of mentioning the make/model of the oximeter? Maybe as a PM?
Taking the issue to the logical extreme, you cannot possibly have 800 Covid patients a day still kicking the bucket in hospital when there are no more Covid patients left in hospital to kick the bucket. It's just a matter of showing patience for more than five seconds before starting to scream.
There will be no demand for further tightening of the lockdown, except amongst a few of the louder and more hysterical media personalities, and however bad things are I don't think we're ready to embrace the dictatorship of Piers Morgan just yet. The main risk, as it has always been, is that the public either becomes sick to death of the thing or despairs that it will ever end, and that adherence begins to crumble as a result.
Paul Yowell (@pwyowell) Tweeted: The graph is retrieved by clicking 3x on the arrow in the link. The lag in reporting adds to previous days. Thus yesterday's 4 is now 20; and the total today rises to 1511. But the peak was on 8 April, unless some giant spike is coming. 2/ https://t.co/QpYX4xDAcH
I once had 20 minutes on R4 to discuss an issue in detail - it was an amazing experience and I never expect to hear, let alome participate, in one again.
Doesn't excuse not beg, borrowing and stealing every bit of lab capacity in the private sector. We still wouldn't be able to match Germany, but would have increased capacity a lot faster.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07Y9RHRNB/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o06_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
I can't believe anybody is taking this seriously, but i keep seeing it being quoted.
Daniel Kahneman`s snow shovel hypothesis goes up in smoke.
From where we are? Do the same as the above but, because of where we are, it will take longer and it will hurt the economy more. My fury at those who refused to lock down when it would have worked is only getting greater as time goes on. I sincerely hope that none of these same people are whinging about ending the lockdown now or soon, they’ve done this country enough damage already.
On top of that, the testing regime that I hoped would enable us to get out of this mess is not happening. None of them work. After a bit of hope, another demoralising day.
--AS
The graph with the 1-sigma range is laughable.
What do you think of yesterdays advice re alternatives?
Are they less safe, but still pretty safe?
Is there a plentiful supply of the alternatives?
What impact will it have on intubation and ventilation work?
(BTW I share your concern about the Imperial model's lack of open code, but I note that very much the same results were obtained independently, using a different model but similiar-ish assumptions, by LSHTM. This gives a lot more credence to both the models and the implementations.)
--AS
I think lockdown is starting to crumble here.
I've been ruminating on an idea for the city that would involve the gradual development of zones based on the world's great cultures/cities. They already have the Eiffel Tower so add to that the Arc de Triomphe, and make it look a bit like the Las Vegas version of Paris. Then do New York, etc. I don't know anyone in the sector so I haven't anyone to share it with at present.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/04/eleven-days-may-have-tragically-cost-uk-fight-against-coronavirus
1. Much depends on the accuracy and speed of analysis of any given test as well as availability.
2. Inaccurate tests may be worse than no testing if their results are given too much weight for tactical decisions like when someone can return to work.
If nurse was sick with Covid symptoms would they really be brought back into the front line earlier by a negative test? Apart from risking their well being there is the chance of a false negative test and therefore exposing patients to the virus. More likely the set minimum isolation would still be observed.
If a doctor has tested positive they are not going to be sent out without protective gear because they MAY have resistance to infection.
Peter Frankopan's book The Silk Roads has an excellent chapter on this.
It points out, incidentally, that long term the disease helped to change the social structure and facilitate the growth of economic activity and social mobility in the succeeding period, but it took a while.
Nice of the communist union bods to you know, get behind the war effort when their mates in Moscow got involved too
They should only pay attention to people who have a semblance of knowing what the fuck they are talking about. Those who have access to a computer and a strong opinion have no right whatsoever to inflict their opinions on Govt. at this time. And I happily include myself in that number.
Perhaps if people start going to these places on holiday, they will stop being dumping grounds for the unwanted?
Until you fall off it.
It will only be when we look back that we will discover which countries did well and how the first lockdown, impacted the unavoidable subsequent ones.
I bought the AGPTEK pulse oximeter, but no longer available. They all look pretty much of a muchness to me. The £26 one looks fine.
There is nothing, absolutely nothing, by which it is possible to defend this Government's handling. It is Boris' good fortune that he's immensely popular, especially having very nearly taken one for the team.
And, get this, 100,000 passengers are still alighting at Heathrow every week without screening. It's staggering. Absolutely staggering.