Setka Cup Womens Table Tennis. 09:40 - Oksana Mykhailyk v Oksana Kregul
OM is 1/5. has won both her matches today 3-0. OK has lost her three matches 1-3. Last time they played OM won 3-0. I've gone for OM -1.5 games at 1/2 (bet365).
HMG is about to reverse its position on masks. Just watch. It will be a screeching and belated handbrake turn. If they can away with it, they can get away with anything
You are obsessed by masks, and go on about it night and day.
HMG is about to reverse its position on masks. Just watch. It will be a screeching and belated handbrake turn. If they can away with it, they can get away with anything
You are obsessed by masks, and go on about it night and day.
It's weird.
One of many obsessions, another one will be along soon.
On topic, this take on the British government's performance is obviously correct and it's good to see people finally start to critically assess the emperor's fashion choices.
The next thing for people to start to get their head around is that unfortunately Keir Starmer isn't very good. They should have gone with Nandy.
Lisa Nandy wasn’t oven-ready, as shown by how bogged down she got in trans rights. Sir Keir is not very good though, you’re right. He’s already made two minor blunders.
Fair point but she could have learned as she went, the problem with Starmer is that there's no way to teach a killer instinct.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
No, Peston. The U.K. comes 20th out of more than 200 countries.
Oh, and I live in the country that’s second on that list. Currently we are not allowed out except once every three days for food and medicines, and have to get advance permission from the police to do so. Would people prefer the UK to be more like the UAE in that regard too?
Christ! I hope your air conditioning doesn't break down.
Me too!
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
On topic, this take on the British government's performance is obviously correct and it's good to see people finally start to critically assess the emperor's fashion choices.
The next thing for people to start to get their head around is that unfortunately Keir Starmer isn't very good. They should have gone with Nandy.
Lisa Nandy wasn’t oven-ready, as shown by how bogged down she got in trans rights. Sir Keir is not very good though, you’re right. He’s already made two minor blunders.
Am drawn to this new refrain: the many references to delirium, hallucination and psychic alteration. The same was seen in Spanish Flu and led, some think, to the later, more jarring iterations of Modernism
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
David , surely the central belt is one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, why should it be lower than many parts of England. All your arguments apply to it as well, apart from perhaps the large BAME population.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
Public reaction, like deaths, lags a few weeks behind the government response and media outrage.
But it wont get truly slaughtered until the inquiries on the situation since no matter how well it does now we will it seems be one of the worst hit, and it wont matter if certain things were unavoidable.
It's fascinating how having a child changes you. You automatically think (long term) about doing everything possible to give them the best possible start and advantages in life. I can only surmise this must be an evolutionary thing. Because it's so visceral within you.
In our case buying a family house near good schools was a key objective (which we achieved) and we are also investing and saving as much as we can (at the expense of pleasures and treats for ourselves) to also give us private education options as well.
I think that's perfectly natural and unobjectionable, and I'd expect anyone else to do the same.
Having seen a great many school admission appeals over the years and the often incredibly weak arguments that get presented and how certain parents are of how essential their child be moved, I can say with confidence that parents, understandably, cant be expected to wholly rational when thinking of their kids.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
For the Nits on here I might start a new Civ6 game late tonight playing as Scotland.
If England pops up as one of the AI civilisation rivals I'll declare war on them and let you know how I get on.
I didnt know Scotland was a playable option in Civ6. I've played as them in one of the total war games as I like to be methodical and conquer from one edge of the map to another
The damage done to the Labour party over a sustained period if time is going to require more than a couple of weeks to put right. I doubt anyone has noticed the latest eruption and given one was always likely it’s better to have it now when minds are elsewhere. The government is doing as well as others elsewhere that have made similar mistakes. It’ll get a lot more interesting once the lockdown begins to unwind and post crisis decisions have to be made.
I agree. If Labour must have a civil war this is a good time to have it. The public are paying no attention and an election is 4 years away.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
Yes, I know a number of even centrist Labour people who feel OK, we've estsablished the responsible opposition bit, let's move on to identifying the problems and solutions more vigorously. The absence of Parliament is part of the problem - PMQs, for all its failings, gives a focus to highlight challenge which, say, an interview in the Guaedian does not.
On home working, yes, very much so. My office has taken to it like ducks to water. Nobody misses the commute, management doesn't find decisions are being taken less effectively, all the hassle about parking spaces etc. has gone. If people could go out more in their free time, it'd be OK to do it forever, which an occasional get-together just as a nice bonding thing. But 20% of the organisation's staff work around the world anyway, often in small or even one-person teams, and there are plenty who I've mever met.
On the efficacy of the NHS, I’d have thought Labour should be using the “lions led by donkeys” line.
The problem there is that Starmer is a member of the donkey class.
Sure, but that need not be an issue. Figures who are very 'establishment' successfully rail against the establishment all the time. Probably more successfully than outsider cranks.
Setka Cup Womens Table Tennis. 09:40 - Oksana Mykhailyk v Oksana Kregul
OM is 1/5. has won both her matches today 3-0. OK has lost her three matches 1-3. Last time they played OM won 3-0. I've gone for OM -1.5 games at 1/2 (bet365).
If and when the reckoning comes, the most likely bone of contention will be the delay in implementing the lockdown. PPE issues and testing (especially the former) can largely be explained away due to global shortages of material; stories of PPE shortages and sub-standard supplies abound in many countries.
It is, however, quite possible that the Government and its advisors will get away with it in any event. Consider,
1. Once the disease and the death rate are finally brought under some sort of control, the whole focus will inevitably turn to the economic catastrophe and measures to mitigate it (easing the lockdown and ongoing financial support for businesses and households,) and the fallout from that will go on for years. The public and the media may both be too busy fretting about current problems to indulge in too much recrimination over past mistakes
2. The NHS as national religion: anyone who suggests that Britain has handled the pandemic badly is liable to be bashed with the "how dare you criticize our beloved NHS?" stick. Regardless of the fact that criticisms over the lockdown, PPE shortages and so on are nothing to do with the efficiency and performance of the clinicians themselves, the risk is that pointing at the mortality statistics and denouncing them as awful will be interpreted in exactly that way. Simplistically put, as it will be by the time all the detail has been shredded in the course of an outbreak of loud public arguing, if Britain's healthcare outcomes are bad then surely this means that the NHS is bad, and to say that is heresy
3. Political buy-in: the devolved administrations have all acted more-or-less in lockstep with the UK Government, and the opposition in Parliament has been at pains to act in a spirit of national unity. There was very little loud shouting over the lockdown, in particular, at the time when the Government and the boffins were telling us that we should wait until the right moment to take those measures, and the various opposition parties can't just hop into their Tardises and change their responses now. Labour can make a little bit of headway in complaining about PPE and testing issues, but the big ship - the delays in implementing social distancing - has already sailed.
Moreover, some reports suggest that the UK is now one of the leading countries in terms of the global effort to identify therapies for Covid-19 and to develop a vaccine. Certainly if the team at Oxford hit the jackpot with a safe working vaccine before anyone else, then there will be national cheering and all previous errors will be even easier for the Government to write off. Ours is by no means the only country to have suffered mass casualties which might have been avoided with different or faster actions, but then again hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Not to mention that Boris getting ill means it is hard to criticise him or HMG. At a human level, we sympathise; at a political level, Boris have plausible deniability we can't blame him for decisions taken or not taken in his absence, and nor can we blame the rest of the Cabinet if the boss was not around.
Lucky they all have good excuses and can point fingers rather than grow backbones and accept the brickbats they should be getting , especially Boris the invisible man.
Public reaction, like deaths, lags a few weeks behind the government response and media outrage.
But it wont get truly slaughtered until the inquiries on the situation since no matter how well it does now we will it seems be one of the worst hit, and it wont matter if certain things were unavoidable.
There were some reports a few weeks ago, of many government agencies not wanting to drop the box-ticking and paperwork, purely because of the almost certain knowledge that their actions would be subject to a public enquiry with the benefit of hindsight.
On the efficacy of the NHS, I’d have thought Labour should be using the “lions led by donkeys” line.
The problem there is that Starmer is a member of the donkey class.
Sure, but that need not be an issue. Figures who are very 'establishment' successfully rail against the establishment all the time. Probably more successfully than outsider cranks.
There are currently two open goals for Starmer to score in:
1) Why has the government been so lax about entry to this country.
2) Why has the government allowed this country to be so dependent upon imports for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.
Do you think Starmer will notice these open goals ?
Better a competent enemy than an incompetent supporter?
Ultimately while Corbyn and his supporters did face a lot of opposition within without the party, their main complaint comes to do being their own inadequacy to deal with the challenges they faced. (Also being author their own challenges in many cases but thats another story).
Whether we dislike Boris for instance, and acknowledging he had lesser challenges, he did cause problems too but was able to overcome them. I'm sure Keir will too.
"Mr. Gates, 64, the Microsoft co-founder turned philanthropist, has now become the star of an explosion of conspiracy theories about the coronavirus outbreak. In posts on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, he is being falsely portrayed as the creator of Covid-19, as a profiteer from a virus vaccine, and as part of a dastardly plot to use the illness to cull or surveil the global population."
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
No, Peston. The U.K. comes 20th out of more than 200 countries.
Oh, and I live in the country that’s second on that list. Currently we are not allowed out except once every three days for food and medicines, and have to get advance permission from the police to do so. Would people prefer the UK to be more like the UAE in that regard too?
Christ! I hope your air conditioning doesn't break down.
Me too!
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
Ramadan really could not have come at a worse time for the UK. If the Muslim community are tempted to ignore the rules, to visit their neighbours and friends the risk is the lockdown gets extended a couple more weeks for everyone. If a narrative develops (by bored folk, grumbling online) that we are all still stuck inside because of Muslim community cheating, I fear there is going to be heightened tension later on.
I hope the imams - and the MPs - in their communities are laying down that just this once, it cannot be a social occasion. Because for whatever reason, this virus is hunting down those in the Muslim community more ferociously than any other. The worst possible outcome is that they get painted as the villains, whilst being disproportionately the victims.
The damage done to the Labour party over a sustained period if time is going to require more than a couple of weeks to put right. I doubt anyone has noticed the latest eruption and given one was always likely it’s better to have it now when minds are elsewhere. The government is doing as well as others elsewhere that have made similar mistakes. It’ll get a lot more interesting once the lockdown begins to unwind and post crisis decisions have to be made.
I agree. If Labour must have a civil war this is a good time to have it. The public are paying no attention and an election is 4 years away.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
As Conway points out there are other issues comparing numbers, so your over-egg comment could be valid (could also be under-egging)
As ever with Westminster , they are fiddling the numbers as you would expect , they are still avoiding including all the deaths to try and pretend they have any clue as to what they are doing. Boris si suddenly happy to be out of the limelight yet again , his first disappearance at beginning for a few weeks followed by his few days in hospital and now total disappearance is very advantageous for him, he now has dupes he can blame if it goes tits up or he will suddenly reappear and claim to have been running it all from behind the scenes if any glory is to be had. Shameless shysters.
On the efficacy of the NHS, I’d have thought Labour should be using the “lions led by donkeys” line.
The problem there is that Starmer is a member of the donkey class.
Sure, but that need not be an issue. Figures who are very 'establishment' successfully rail against the establishment all the time. Probably more successfully than outsider cranks.
There are currently two open goals for Starmer to score in:
1) Why has the government been so lax about entry to this country.
2) Why has the government allowed this country to be so dependent upon imports for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.
Do you think Starmer will notice these open goals ?
He's been very quiet so far, helps not to confuse matters but there are questions he should - and it is his duty to ask as LOTO. He's not screaming alternative leader at this point.
Setka Cup Womens Table Tennis. 09:40 - Oksana Mykhailyk v Oksana Kregul
OM is 1/5. has won both her matches today 3-0. OK has lost her three matches 1-3. Last time they played OM won 3-0. I've gone for OM -1.5 games at 1/2 (bet365).
DYOR.
Anything to pass the time
11-9 11-9 11-8. closer than i'd like but a win's a win.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
Hardly , they will just be pinging now and throwing even worse processed crap down their gullets whilst spending more on sweets and crisps, etc.
i) Are you without severe covid-19 symptons. ii) Do you have a job still or means of supporting yourself. iii) Are your friends and family all still alive and able to eat with a roof over their heads.
If you can get near 3 out of 3, that's the best case scenario till a vaccine comes out.
I'm afraid it isn't because it could take 1-2 years for a vaccine to come out and be implemented and it doesn't take into account the economic consequences nor the social ones: if our economy is smaller we won't be able to pay the taxes to fund good healthcare meaning many others will die from things like cancer, dementia and other diseases and we will see a massive rise in mental health disorders and a traumatised generation of youth.
Then you have the social consequences of a society where a culture snitching on your neighbours and others to the rozzers becomes embedded, which is perhaps what worries me worst of all.
I understand the frustration but the die is already cast, most of us are going to have our living standards reduced significantly for the next 5 years or more. You may as well accept it now and adjust. Until there is a vaccine life or the economy are not going to return to anything like the old "normal".
I don't agree with your "snitching" point. If the vast majority of us are complying with the lockdown for the sake of the country we are going to get very piss*d off indeed with the arrogant and selfish idiots that think they can flout the rules.
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
Home working, and all that flows from it, may well be the biggest long-term socio-economic consequence of this pandemic in Britain. Whilst you're absolutely right to point out that not nearly everyone can do it, an awful lot of people can - and that includes most of those who commute in and out of London and other urban cores for work everyday. Or who did, until all this kicked off.
Once employees and employers alike cotton on to the fact that home working can be done successfully then the immense waste of time, money and needless stress inherent in commuting to the office can be largely dispensed with. Office workers could find themselves home working the whole time, or only travelling to the office occasionally for important meetings, and if people only need to travel into the cities for particular necessary reasons then that ought also to mean the end of morning and evening peak/rush hour travel. It's a potentially transformational change that could save employees huge sums of money in commuting costs, mean that employers can either reduce or eliminate their need to maintain expensive office space, and save the Government itself money by doing away with much of the requirement to expand transport capacity.
Indeed, I interpret the decision to plough on with HS2 as being the product of the Government wanting to offer support to the construction sector, and to be seen to be helping its friends in the North, rather than for any conceivable use that the extra line will actually have in a post-virus world where demand for passenger train travel will probably have fallen over a cliff edge.
Major reductions in commuting could also help the Government greatly in its quest to rebalance the economy away from London. Once there is no need, or at any rate a greatly reduced need, for sectors like finance to bring all their employees together in one physical location then the importance of the City as a place declines massively, and economic activity moves out into the provinces where most of the workers live. Initially this could see a doughnut pattern of hollowing out as much of London's economic activity flows out into the Home Counties, but in the longer term there is no reason at all why ex-commuters can't migrate further out of, say, hideously overpriced Buckinghamshire into Powys or Northumberland, and enjoy a more rural life (and much cheaper property prices) without having to compromise their careers or earning potential.
If anything good comes out of this disaster, then it will most likely come in the form of the benefits that we stand to enjoy - financially, emotionally and environmentally - from more flexible working practices and a huge reduction in wasteful and unnecessary commuting.
No, Peston. The U.K. comes 20th out of more than 200 countries.
Oh, and I live in the country that’s second on that list. Currently we are not allowed out except once every three days for food and medicines, and have to get advance permission from the police to do so. Would people prefer the UK to be more like the UAE in that regard too?
Christ! I hope your air conditioning doesn't break down.
Me too!
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
Ramadan really could not have come at a worse time for the UK. If the Muslim community are tempted to ignore the rules, to visit their neighbours and friends the risk is the lockdown gets extended a couple more weeks for everyone. If a narrative develops (by bored folk, grumbling online) that we are all still stuck inside because of Muslim community cheating, I fear there is going to be heightened tension later on.
I hope the imams - and the MPs - in their communities are laying down that just this once, it cannot be a social occasion. Because for whatever reason, this virus is hunting down those in the Muslim community more ferociously than any other. The worst possible outcome is that they get painted as the villains, whilst being disproportionately the victims.
It won't be policed because, as usual, fear of being painted as racist will win out over everything else.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
Hardly , they will just be pinging now and throwing even worse processed crap down their gullets whilst spending more on sweets and crisps, etc.
I, er, don't know what you're talking about. *shifts nervously*
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
This.
According to Wikipedia Ninewells hospital has 862 beds. I wonder how many are currently empty
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
We're still getting takeaways, had one last night. Less choice now though.
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
David , surely the central belt is one of the most densely populated areas of Europe, why should it be lower than many parts of England. All your arguments apply to it as well, apart from perhaps the large BAME population.
Edinburgh and Glasgow have far more cases than the rest of Scotland. That also fits. But I agree that even there we do not seem close to London or Birmingham. More, less densely populated public space? I don't know.
For the Nits on here I might start a new Civ6 game late tonight playing as Scotland.
If England pops up as one of the AI civilisation rivals I'll declare war on them and let you know how I get on.
I didnt know Scotland was a playable option in Civ6. I've played as them in one of the total war games as I like to be methodical and conquer from one edge of the map to another
The NHS hasn't been overwhelmed and I think that's the threshold most people will judge the performance on.
Quibbling over days before lockdown won't be here nor there. As far as international comparisons go we can see idiots like those across the pond calling this a "hoax". Our officials and government took this seriously and took serious action.
As someone who doesnt commute I dont get much benefit from home working. I cannot wait for it to be over. But I think more senior people of the 'must always be present' mindset are discovering they can be much more effective with some home working as it means they can focus. So a culture change there may occur.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
I've actually started ordering takeaways again just because my wife and I became exhausted of cooking and clearing up on top of everything else we have to do, but still only twice a week or so.
Really the only way out of this is if the Oxford team deliver the vaccine. I think the government will take a lot of the credit there given how much funding it has pumped into research.
If it doesn't deliver then I think Hancock falls, definitely, Boris will be fine though.
Setka Cup Womens Table Tennis. 09:40 - Oksana Mykhailyk v Oksana Kregul
OM is 1/5. has won both her matches today 3-0. OK has lost her three matches 1-3. Last time they played OM won 3-0. I've gone for OM -1.5 games at 1/2 (bet365).
DYOR.
Anything to pass the time
11-9 11-9 11-8. closer than i'd like but a win's a win.
quick follow up. 10:10 same event
Polina Nerush v Marta Maliuta.
Skybet still 13/8 PN. she's won last 4 meetings and 6 of last 7. most firms moved to PN fav now but sky not yet.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
We're still getting takeaways, had one last night. Less choice now though.
No kidding, I had a pizza last week and the available toppings were reduced from like 20 to 10. Times are hard.
It's fascinating how having a child changes you. You automatically think (long term) about doing everything possible to give them the best possible start and advantages in life. I can only surmise this must be an evolutionary thing. Because it's so visceral within you.
In our case buying a family house near good schools was a key objective (which we achieved) and we are also investing and saving as much as we can (at the expense of pleasures and treats for ourselves) to also give us private education options as well.
I think that's perfectly natural and unobjectionable, and I'd expect anyone else to do the same.
Having seen a great many school admission appeals over the years and the often incredibly weak arguments that get presented and how certain parents are of how essential their child be moved, I can say with confidence that parents, understandably, cant be expected to wholly rational when thinking of their kids.
Is it any difference to NIMBYism?
Anyone can be expected to vociferously fight for what is in their own self-interest or those of their family.
No, Peston. The U.K. comes 20th out of more than 200 countries.
Oh, and I live in the country that’s second on that list. Currently we are not allowed out except once every three days for food and medicines, and have to get advance permission from the police to do so. Would people prefer the UK to be more like the UAE in that regard too?
Christ! I hope your air conditioning doesn't break down.
Me too!
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
Ramadan really could not have come at a worse time for the UK. If the Muslim community are tempted to ignore the rules, to visit their neighbours and friends the risk is the lockdown gets extended a couple more weeks for everyone. If a narrative develops (by bored folk, grumbling online) that we are all still stuck inside because of Muslim community cheating, I fear there is going to be heightened tension later on.
I hope the imams - and the MPs - in their communities are laying down that just this once, it cannot be a social occasion. Because for whatever reason, this virus is hunting down those in the Muslim community more ferociously than any other. The worst possible outcome is that they get painted as the villains, whilst being disproportionately the victims.
Good points there, it’s going to be a very difficult line to tread for the police. Given their attitudes to “Community Policing” over the years in dealing with the “Rotherham problem”, I wouldn’t be too hopeful.
"Mr. Gates, 64, the Microsoft co-founder turned philanthropist, has now become the star of an explosion of conspiracy theories about the coronavirus outbreak. In posts on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, he is being falsely portrayed as the creator of Covid-19, as a profiteer from a virus vaccine, and as part of a dastardly plot to use the illness to cull or surveil the global population."
There's a chance even a vaccine wont save America, as so many people will refuse to take it.
There are so many conspiracist twats in this world, it really is a shame that Covid-19 doesn't attack them alone. It would still have plenty of victims to feed off.
The NHS hasn't been overwhelmed and I think that's the threshold most people will judge the performance on.
Quibbling over days before lockdown won't be here nor there. As far as international comparisons go we can see idiots like those across the pond calling this a "hoax". Our officials and government took this seriously and took serious action.
On your first para I think youre right...for now. Later, everyone will focus more on why we havent had results like Germany or South Korea, whether that unreasonable or not.
Pleased to report the blue-tits in our cctv-fitted nest box now have five eggs. Still nest-building around them. Apparently the female doesn't start incubating until she's laid all she's going to.
Pleased to report the blue-tits in our cctv-fitted nest box now have five eggs. Still nest-building around them. Apparently the female doesn't start incubating until she's laid all she's going to.
1. The government aren't doing that badly at a macro level. People are largely doing as they're told, the NHS hasn't collapsed, there's been a concerted Blitz spirit push. Scenes of horror early on from the likes of Italy not seen here 2. The government have shown remarkable flexibility of thinking. Some of the stuff that Sunak has had to announce is outrageously radical for a Tory government 3. The disconnect between what is announced and what is reality has become increasingly stark. Its ok to announce loans for business or expansion of Universal Credit,but when almost everyone applying can't get it, there is a massive problem. The scale of the problem has been bubbling away for a few weeks now, and as we start to see businesses collapse thanks to the non-availability of the Sunak loan and suicides as people literally run out of cash the negative reality won't be blustered away 4. The impact of a decade of cuts is here for all to see. Its fine to say "Bravo NHS" but on the front line its literally reliant on charitable donations of food and equipment. Doctors having to rely on visors made by a local school and being told to reuse single use gowns is Not Good Enough. Same with HMRC and DWP - simply not enough people 5. There is a growing divide in the populace between those terrified of the virus and those dismissive of it. "Is that it" is something I am already hearing / reading - if we go on well into May in the current lockdown state I expect increasing numbers to simply ignore the instructions. And thanks to the cuts there aren't enough police to enforce it.
No, Peston. The U.K. comes 20th out of more than 200 countries.
Oh, and I live in the country that’s second on that list. Currently we are not allowed out except once every three days for food and medicines, and have to get advance permission from the police to do so. Would people prefer the UK to be more like the UAE in that regard too?
Christ! I hope your air conditioning doesn't break down.
Me too!
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
Ramadan really could not have come at a worse time for the UK. If the Muslim community are tempted to ignore the rules, to visit their neighbours and friends the risk is the lockdown gets extended a couple more weeks for everyone. If a narrative develops (by bored folk, grumbling online) that we are all still stuck inside because of Muslim community cheating, I fear there is going to be heightened tension later on.
I hope the imams - and the MPs - in their communities are laying down that just this once, it cannot be a social occasion. Because for whatever reason, this virus is hunting down those in the Muslim community more ferociously than any other. The worst possible outcome is that they get painted as the villains, whilst being disproportionately the victims.
Good points there, it’s going to be a very difficult line to tread for the police. Given their attitudes to “Community Policing” over the years in dealing with the “Rotherham problem”, I wouldn’t be too hopeful.
It's not difficult at all. The same rules apply to everyone.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
We're still getting takeaways, had one last night. Less choice now though.
No kidding, I had a pizza last week and the available toppings were reduced from like 20 to 10. Times are hard.
Really the only way out of this is if the Oxford team deliver the vaccine. I think the government will take a lot of the credit there given how much funding it has pumped into research.
If it doesn't deliver then I think Hancock falls, definitely, Boris will be fine though.
There was an expert on Radio 4 this morning saying the Government had done an outstanding job at putting this team together and supporting them. Fingers crossed...
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
Home working, and all that flows from it, may well be the biggest long-term socio-economic consequence of this pandemic in Britain. Whilst you're absolutely right to point out that not nearly everyone can do it, an awful lot of people can - and that includes most of those who commute in and out of London and other urban cores for work everyday. Or who did, until all this kicked off.
Once employees and employers alike cotton on to the fact that home working can be done successfully then the immense waste of time, money and needless stress inherent in commuting to the office can be largely dispensed with. Office workers could find themselves home working the whole time, or only travelling to the office occasionally for important meetings, and if people only need to travel into the cities for particular necessary reasons then that ought also to mean the end of morning and evening peak/rush hour travel. It's a potentially transformational change that could save employees huge sums of money in commuting costs, mean that employers can either reduce or eliminate their need to maintain expensive office space, and save the Government itself money by doing away with much of the requirement to expand transport capacity.
Indeed, I interpret the decision to plough on with HS2 as being the product of the Government wanting to offer support to the construction sector, and to be seen to be helping its friends in the North, rather than for any conceivable use that the extra line will actually have in a post-virus world where demand for passenger train travel will probably have fallen over a cliff edge.
Major reductions in commuting could also help the Government greatly in its quest to rebalance the economy away from London. Once there is no need, or at any rate a greatly reduced need, for sectors like finance to bring all their employees together in one physical location then the importance of the City as a place declines massively, and economic activity moves out into the provinces where most of the workers live. Initially this could see a doughnut pattern of hollowing out as much of London's economic activity flows out into the Home Counties, but in the longer term there is no reason at all why ex-commuters can't migrate further out of, say, hideously overpriced Buckinghamshire into Powys or Northumberland, and enjoy a more rural life (and much cheaper property prices) without having to compromise their careers or earning potential.
If anything good comes out of this disaster, then it will most likely come in the form of the benefits that we stand to enjoy - financially, emotionally and environmentally - from more flexible working practices and a huge reduction in wasteful and unnecessary commuting.
I think a lot of companies are now realising that WFH can keep the vast majority of the productivity, while eliminating a lot of the cost of office space and commuting.
It won’t be for everyone and every company, but one good thing to come from this crisis could well be a shift to more home working in future, with huge potential upsides in quality of life for millions of people.
HS2 still needs to go ahead though, like with the new Heathrow runway it should have been built decades ago as the current infrastructure is stressed close to breaking point.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
As Conway points out there are other issues comparing numbers, so your over-egg comment could be valid (could also be under-egging)
The worrying thing is not The Peak, it is The Plateau
The plateau was the explicit proximate policy target ("flatten the curve, save the nhs").
Exactly so. The NHS is on a war footing. Not having enough cases to treat is not a success, it means the price paid by those whose treatment for other things was deferred was wasted.
I agree with those that say we are now on a plateau. Even after several weeks of severe lockdown Spain had over 5,800 new cases yesterday. We need to urgently learn how and what we can do to reduce the R0 figure by enough to come out of lockdown when we still have an economy left.
Pleased to report the blue-tits in our cctv-fitted nest box now have five eggs. Still nest-building around them. Apparently the female doesn't start incubating until she's laid all she's going to.
Could be a few more yet - they have large broods.
Indeed; think the biggest we've had was about seven. Do tend to lose 2-3 chicks, though.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
We're still getting takeaways, had one last night. Less choice now though.
No kidding, I had a pizza last week and the available toppings were reduced from like 20 to 10. Times are hard.
I think those who are isolating with their families or partners don’t appreciate how lonely and demoralising it is when you don’t have those things. Zoom does not make up for human contact.
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
This.
According to Wikipedia Ninewells hospital has 862 beds. I wonder how many are currently empty
I don't have the exact number but I am assured that it is a record. Huge efforts have been spent retraining medical staff in other specialities to cover ICU beds. So far they have not been called upon. This was not a mistake. We needed to be ready. But those claiming we locked down too late need to address these awkward facts.
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
What he said.
There are multiple factors involved - and some early "successes" are now having "second waves":
Although, as in much of Asia, casual racism is not far below the surface with the implication that its not such a big problem as they are foreign work permit holders who live in cramped communal dorms. Who could have seen that coming?
Once this is all over I do think PHE will have "questions to answer" (and Ministers for not asking them) - "command and control centralised testing" and PPE distribution among them. Also I suspect Care Home lock down should have started sooner - that was a disaster waiting to happen. Finally I remain mystified over this fetishisation of unrestricted international travel - we're among the last to allow it. If it is to carry on, then at least force all arrivals to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
As Conway points out there are other issues comparing numbers, so your over-egg comment could be valid (could also be under-egging)
The worrying thing is not The Peak, it is The Plateau
The plateau was the explicit proximate policy target ("flatten the curve, save the nhs").
Exactly so. The NHS is on a war footing. Not having enough cases to treat is not a success, it means the price paid by those whose treatment for other things was deferred was wasted.
I agree with those that say we are now on a plateau. Even after several weeks of severe lockdown Spain had over 5,800 new cases yesterday. We need to urgently learn how and what we can do to reduce the R0 figure by enough to come out of lockdown when we still have an economy left.
How many deaths will be caused by cancer scans or other treatments being deferred thus leading to treatment starting too late?
The idea that the virus is the only thing that matters is absurd. The risk was the NHS being overwhelmed, that clearly hasn't happened. It may have happened had we not locked down but the lockdown hasn't failed or come too late.
The review I'm interested in afterwards is not whether we locked down too late (we didn't) but whether Sweden comes out OK with their alternative solution.
I think those who are isolating with their families or partners don’t appreciate how lonely and demoralising it is when you don’t have those things. Zoom does not make up for human contact.
Totally agree. However, what's worse is when one of the partners goes into hospital. Friend of my wife's has just had a terrible time.
The NHS hasn't been overwhelmed and I think that's the threshold most people will judge the performance on.
Quibbling over days before lockdown won't be here nor there. As far as international comparisons go we can see idiots like those across the pond calling this a "hoax". Our officials and government took this seriously and took serious action.
On your first para I think youre right...for now. Later, everyone will focus more on why we havent had results like Germany or South Korea, whether that unreasonable or not.
No they won't. Later everyone will focus on the next Tiger King or Love Island. Later everyone will focus on going to the pub.
A few obsessives (overly on websites like this one) will focus on slicing differences between us and Germany or South Korea.
No, Peston. The U.K. comes 20th out of more than 200 countries.
Oh, and I live in the country that’s second on that list. Currently we are not allowed out except once every three days for food and medicines, and have to get advance permission from the police to do so. Would people prefer the UK to be more like the UAE in that regard too?
Christ! I hope your air conditioning doesn't break down.
Me too!
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
Ramadan really could not have come at a worse time for the UK. If the Muslim community are tempted to ignore the rules, to visit their neighbours and friends the risk is the lockdown gets extended a couple more weeks for everyone. If a narrative develops (by bored folk, grumbling online) that we are all still stuck inside because of Muslim community cheating, I fear there is going to be heightened tension later on.
I hope the imams - and the MPs - in their communities are laying down that just this once, it cannot be a social occasion. Because for whatever reason, this virus is hunting down those in the Muslim community more ferociously than any other. The worst possible outcome is that they get painted as the villains, whilst being disproportionately the victims.
Good points there, it’s going to be a very difficult line to tread for the police. Given their attitudes to “Community Policing” over the years in dealing with the “Rotherham problem”, I wouldn’t be too hopeful.
It's not difficult at all. The same rules apply to everyone.
In theory, of course it does. However, years of history tend to suggest that in practice that may not be the case.
A few thoughts: 1. The government aren't doing that badly at a macro level. People are largely doing as they're told, the NHS hasn't collapsed, there's been a concerted Blitz spirit push. Scenes of horror early on from the likes of Italy not seen here 2. The government have shown remarkable flexibility of thinking. Some of the stuff that Sunak has had to announce is outrageously radical for a Tory government 3. The disconnect between what is announced and what is reality has become increasingly stark. Its ok to announce loans for business or expansion of Universal Credit,but when almost everyone applying can't get it, there is a massive problem. The scale of the problem has been bubbling away for a few weeks now, and as we start to see businesses collapse thanks to the non-availability of the Sunak loan and suicides as people literally run out of cash the negative reality won't be blustered away 4. The impact of a decade of cuts is here for all to see. Its fine to say "Bravo NHS" but on the front line its literally reliant on charitable donations of food and equipment. Doctors having to rely on visors made by a local school and being told to reuse single use gowns is Not Good Enough. Same with HMRC and DWP - simply not enough people 5. There is a growing divide in the populace between those terrified of the virus and those dismissive of it. "Is that it" is something I am already hearing / reading - if we go on well into May in the current lockdown state I expect increasing numbers to simply ignore the instructions. And thanks to the cuts there aren't enough police to enforce it.
As a fellow ex-LD, I'm happy to offer my thoughts on your thoughts:
1) I suspect the horror has been hidden in care and nursing homes and the truth of that will emerge with time. 2) Necessity is the mother of invention - ideology goes out the window. It did in both World Wars as well. 3) I agree the announcement is one thing - the administration is another. There are gaps such as Directors of Limited Companies who seem to be excluded. 4) I don't agree - the NHS was largely protected in a way most of local Government wasn't. If we had stockpiled all the equipment, somebody would have said it's a waste of money - just like water cannon or snow ploughs. 5) I'm very much in the former category. My anecdotal observation is it is the young who don't care for the restrictions - I see groups of young men and women still hanging about and if there are 20 of you in a 3-bedroom house can you blame one or two for wanting to get out occasionally?
It's fascinating how having a child changes you. You automatically think (long term) about doing everything possible to give them the best possible start and advantages in life. I can only surmise this must be an evolutionary thing. Because it's so visceral within you.
In our case buying a family house near good schools was a key objective (which we achieved) and we are also investing and saving as much as we can (at the expense of pleasures and treats for ourselves) to also give us private education options as well.
I think that's perfectly natural and unobjectionable, and I'd expect anyone else to do the same.
Having seen a great many school admission appeals over the years and the often incredibly weak arguments that get presented and how certain parents are of how essential their child be moved, I can say with confidence that parents, understandably, cant be expected to wholly rational when thinking of their kids.
I used to represent the school [a Kent Grammar] in admissions appeals for many years - totally agree. The system bends over backwards to give their extraordinarily weak cases a massive influence. I always felt it was a feature of the way education, as so often, favours the educated and pushy parent over the best interests of child and school.
I think those who are isolating with their families or partners don’t appreciate how lonely and demoralising it is when you don’t have those things. Zoom does not make up for human contact.
Indeed, we've been debating whether to have one of my partner's friends move in with us for the remainder. She's feeling very lonely by herself and only lives up the road, she's not a suicide risk by any means but she isn't handling the isolation very well. As you say zoom doesn't make up for real contact, plus it's scheduled and for a couple of hours a day.
i) Are you without severe covid-19 symptons. ii) Do you have a job still or means of supporting yourself. iii) Are your friends and family all still alive and able to eat with a roof over their heads.
If you can get near 3 out of 3, that's the best case scenario till a vaccine comes out.
I'm afraid it isn't because it could take 1-2 years for a vaccine to come out and be implemented and it doesn't take into account the economic consequences nor the social ones: if our economy is smaller we won't be able to pay the taxes to fund good healthcare meaning many others will die from things like cancer, dementia and other diseases and we will see a massive rise in mental health disorders and a traumatised generation of youth.
Then you have the social consequences of a society where a culture snitching on your neighbours and others to the rozzers becomes embedded, which is perhaps what worries me worst of all.
I understand the frustration but the die is already cast, most of us are going to have our living standards reduced significantly for the next 5 years or more. You may as well accept it now and adjust. Until there is a vaccine life or the economy are not going to return to anything like the old "normal".
I don't agree with your "snitching" point. If the vast majority of us are complying with the lockdown for the sake of the country we are going to get very piss*d off indeed with the arrogant and selfish idiots that think they can flout the rules.
I don't agree with accepting reduced living standards, which can rapidly feed into broader economic self-confidence and become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We don't know yet how the world will collectively respond to the economic challenges this virus has thrown up in its aftermath yet and we shouldn't throw our hands up immediately in surrender.
On the snitching point: I disagree. We have seen plenty of examples of spectacularly misjudged public hectoring of people lawfully going about their business, curtain twitchers enjoying spying on their neighbours and shopping them far too much (in some instances out of previous jealously or in pursuit of a petty personal vendetta) and such reports then being enthusiastically pounced on by the rozzers. In the meantime unscrupulous employers who are insisting their employees come into work whilst failing to maintain social distancing are a far bigger issue for the spread of the dynamic, but the police aren't interested. It takes place behind closed doors out of sight and the only social drama people are interested in is the public one.
We see now why collaboration takes place so easily in occupied countries accompanied with a police state. People simply get off on the sense of power they can lever and they have to both see the "crime" and then the enforcement to get that satisfaction. It's like a real life soap where everyone can play.
I think it stinks. And I think defensive arguments like "we can't set a precedent", "if one does it everyone will do it" and similar clichés are just excusing authoritative behaviour and am shocked more people don't think the same.
1. The government aren't doing that badly at a macro level. People are largely doing as they're told, the NHS hasn't collapsed, there's been a concerted Blitz spirit push. Scenes of horror early on from the likes of Italy not seen here 2. The government have shown remarkable flexibility of thinking. Some of the stuff that Sunak has had to announce is outrageously radical for a Tory government 3. The disconnect between what is announced and what is reality has become increasingly stark. Its ok to announce loans for business or expansion of Universal Credit,but when almost everyone applying can't get it, there is a massive problem. The scale of the problem has been bubbling away for a few weeks now, and as we start to see businesses collapse thanks to the non-availability of the Sunak loan and suicides as people literally run out of cash the negative reality won't be blustered away 4. The impact of a decade of cuts is here for all to see. Its fine to say "Bravo NHS" but on the front line its literally reliant on charitable donations of food and equipment. Doctors having to rely on visors made by a local school and being told to reuse single use gowns is Not Good Enough. Same with HMRC and DWP - simply not enough people 5. There is a growing divide in the populace between those terrified of the virus and those dismissive of it. "Is that it" is something I am already hearing / reading - if we go on well into May in the current lockdown state I expect increasing numbers to simply ignore the instructions. And thanks to the cuts there aren't enough police to enforce it.
I've not agreed with Rochdale Pioneers often for a while, but I think points 1-4 are spot on (don't know about 5, I don't know anyone in the dismissive camp, but might be just me). Will 3-4 eventually undermine 1-2, shifting the mood from "The Government is getting it right but it'll take time" to "The Govertnment has been flailing around but it's not working"? And, even for a partisan like me, the more important question is whether it's *actually* working.
The interview we had with a pharma industry specialist on our local wbesite (https://www.facebook.com/swsurreylabour/, scrolldown to Adrian LaPorta) was pretty illuminating on vaccines (really don't hold your breath, normallu it takes at least 5 years) but quite positive on potential treatments with existing drugs. If the virus become both less widespread and normally easier to treat, I can see relaxation working, especially if combined with fast testing with an antibodies test to see if you've had it. We can then start worrying about the economic impact, which most poeople including most MPs are barely focused on.
1. The government aren't doing that badly at a macro level. People are largely doing as they're told, the NHS hasn't collapsed, there's been a concerted Blitz spirit push. Scenes of horror early on from the likes of Italy not seen here 2. The government have shown remarkable flexibility of thinking. Some of the stuff that Sunak has had to announce is outrageously radical for a Tory government 3. The disconnect between what is announced and what is reality has become increasingly stark. Its ok to announce loans for business or expansion of Universal Credit,but when almost everyone applying can't get it, there is a massive problem. The scale of the problem has been bubbling away for a few weeks now, and as we start to see businesses collapse thanks to the non-availability of the Sunak loan and suicides as people literally run out of cash the negative reality won't be blustered away 4. The impact of a decade of cuts is here for all to see. Its fine to say "Bravo NHS" but on the front line its literally reliant on charitable donations of food and equipment. Doctors having to rely on visors made by a local school and being told to reuse single use gowns is Not Good Enough. Same with HMRC and DWP - simply not enough people 5. There is a growing divide in the populace between those terrified of the virus and those dismissive of it. "Is that it" is something I am already hearing / reading - if we go on well into May in the current lockdown state I expect increasing numbers to simply ignore the instructions. And thanks to the cuts there aren't enough police to enforce it.
There were never enough Police to enforce it nor should there be, we aren't a Police State.
The only way for the lockdown to work is for the overwhelming majority of people to want to do the right thing and for the Police if they get involved to be with the few idiots doing the wrong thing.
If everyone decides to ignore the lockdown the Police would be powerless to stop us from deciding that. If patience runs out and people decide to go back to normal then what can the Police do if they're getting ignored? They can't arrest everyone and socially distance them all in cells.
1. The government aren't doing that badly at a macro level. People are largely doing as they're told, the NHS hasn't collapsed, there's been a concerted Blitz spirit push. Scenes of horror early on from the likes of Italy not seen here 2. The government have shown remarkable flexibility of thinking. Some of the stuff that Sunak has had to announce is outrageously radical for a Tory government 3. The disconnect between what is announced and what is reality has become increasingly stark. Its ok to announce loans for business or expansion of Universal Credit,but when almost everyone applying can't get it, there is a massive problem. The scale of the problem has been bubbling away for a few weeks now, and as we start to see businesses collapse thanks to the non-availability of the Sunak loan and suicides as people literally run out of cash the negative reality won't be blustered away 4. The impact of a decade of cuts is here for all to see. Its fine to say "Bravo NHS" but on the front line its literally reliant on charitable donations of food and equipment. Doctors having to rely on visors made by a local school and being told to reuse single use gowns is Not Good Enough. Same with HMRC and DWP - simply not enough people 5. There is a growing divide in the populace between those terrified of the virus and those dismissive of it. "Is that it" is something I am already hearing / reading - if we go on well into May in the current lockdown state I expect increasing numbers to simply ignore the instructions. And thanks to the cuts there aren't enough police to enforce it.
My take:
1. Take measures early, including lockdown. The government mucked this up with the consequence that there will be more death, longer lockdown and greater economic damage. We are where we are. 2. Use lockdown to buy time to put mitigation in place, including boosting treatment capabilities. The government has done OK on this 3. Institute a big programme of testing and tracing that allows the infected to be isolated from the healthy, so the healthy can go about its business. The government has barely got going on this. 4. Gradually ease off restrictions on a risk controlled basis. Still to come.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
I've actually started ordering takeaways again just because my wife and I became exhausted of cooking and clearing up on top of everything else we have to do, but still only twice a week or so.
I've been put off by the hygiene risk. Normally happy to turn a blind eye to that but not right now.
I hope the Oxford vaccine works, but it’s worth noting it’s one of more than 70 projects currently underway to find a treatment. The 20% that gets you to 100% certainty is a huge space, especially as the process began a while back and was not focused on covid-19. If you are interested, we did a piece yesterday on the companies best-placed to develop something: https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/johnson-johnson-gilead-and-roche-are-the-worlds-antiviral-patent-leaders We also interviewed the Oxford tech transfer team that will be responsible for disseminating the vaccine, if it does work:
Must read article on Trump's chances of remaining POTUS if he decides to cancel the Nov election and what the constitutional scenarios would be.
"Notably, in only one of these six scenarios does Trump retain the presidency, and that scenario relies on every member of the House surviving the pandemic and individual members of Congress adhering strictly to their party line during what would be an extraordinary constitutional crisis.
So if Trump wants to remain president, there’s pretty much no way canceling the 2020 presidential election helps him do that, at least not constitutionally."
commuting long distances and the ability to wfh are almost exclusively white collar workers and only ~10% of the workforce. The average commute is something 1 to 2 miles. if there is a shift to wfh the impact will be massively skewed to London and the professions. train and tube finances will be horrible.
I think those who are isolating with their families or partners don’t appreciate how lonely and demoralising it is when you don’t have those things. Zoom does not make up for human contact.
Indeed, we've been debating whether to have one of my partner's friends move in with us for the remainder. She's feeling very lonely by herself and only lives up the road, she's not a suicide risk by any means but she isn't handling the isolation very well. As you say zoom doesn't make up for real contact, plus it's scheduled and for a couple of hours a day.
It really does depend on the type of person you are.
My wife and younger twin are complaining about not seeing people, the older twin and myself can't see what the problem is - neither of us are that social at the best of times.
Mind you we have a house big enough to allow us to all work separately so we aren't getting on top of each other, which I'm hearing from other friends is a real problem.
Japan’s health service is on the brink of collapse today, yet according to this thread header we are doing badly. Get real
What, no.
It’s one of headlines on BBC news
See my point up-thread about Britain's most loved institutions being its shittiest. Do you have a link though? I don't see it on the top page (your geolocation may vary.)
i) Are you without severe covid-19 symptons. ii) Do you have a job still or means of supporting yourself. iii) Are your friends and family all still alive and able to eat with a roof over their heads.
If you can get near 3 out of 3, that's the best case scenario till a vaccine comes out.
I'm afraid it isn't because it could take 1-2 years for a vaccine to come out and be implemented and it doesn't take into account the economic consequences nor the social ones: if our economy is smaller we won't be able to pay the taxes to fund good healthcare meaning many others will die from things like cancer, dementia and other diseases and we will see a massive rise in mental health disorders and a traumatised generation of youth.
Then you have the social consequences of a society where a culture snitching on your neighbours and others to the rozzers becomes embedded, which is perhaps what worries me worst of all.
I understand the frustration but the die is already cast, most of us are going to have our living standards reduced significantly for the next 5 years or more. You may as well accept it now and adjust. Until there is a vaccine life or the economy are not going to return to anything like the old "normal".
I don't agree with your "snitching" point. If the vast majority of us are complying with the lockdown for the sake of the country we are going to get very piss*d off indeed with the arrogant and selfish idiots that think they can flout the rules.
Agree - the sad fact is that the virus is wreaking havoc in a wide variety of places, regardless of government and healthcare systems. Countries with a high urban density, high populations with large BAME, high numbers of elderly, with large cities, relatively affluent and mobile populations are all suffering pretty similarly. The exceptions are far fewer than the majority. Difficult to avoid the UK suffering pretty badly in these circumstances.. In addition, the process from peak to plateau and decline seesm to get slower towards the last 2 stages. For many of us in the vulnerable age groups with underlying health issues the road to recovery is even longer. I've ruled out any significant progress for myself before September although there will be gradual relaxation of the lockdown here in Spain before then. And there is going to be a huge bill to pay.
Short to medium term - a deal of economic pain and unfortunately for some it will be the end of their business and I understand that, I really do. The problem is Sunak's long hands, shallow pockets policies will only take us so far and will only last for so long.
As no one really knows, the "experts" are floundering round between "everything will bounce back" and "nothing will ever be the same again" which covers most of the bases - the truth is likely, as always, to be somewhere between the two.
How much will this experience change us? Don't know but it will - there will be changes which don't last and changes that do. We can hope for some positive outcomes but there will be some negative ones too.
I'll just throw a thought or two out there - will we see more people opting to care for elderly relatives at home within the family? Initially, some speculated the big death toll in Italy was due to larger families living together but on the other hand you have care homes and they may be one of the big horror stories from this (quite apart from those who will be found to have died alone).
Second, will this give a big boost to home working? Talking to my colleagues we are all coping well with not being in office. There's talk of a monthly get together but that doesn't require an office - just a meeting room which you could rent on a daily or even hourly basis. That said, it requires different forms of management and leadership and it will cause organisations to evolve (and those that don't or can't may not survive).
Home working isn't possible for everyone but I wonder if we will see a move toward a more freelancing workforce with individuals offering their skills to each other or to other organisations - this won't happen overnight but it seems a plausible evolution.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
I've actually started ordering takeaways again just because my wife and I became exhausted of cooking and clearing up on top of everything else we have to do, but still only twice a week or so.
Blimey, how busy can your home life be? It's just you, yer Mrs and nipper, isn't it?
Really not sure I agree with this piece at all. Let's look at the timing of the lockdown as an example. Our GDP is roughly £2trn or £40bn a week. The shutdown is costing us at least 30% of output which means that there is £12bn of lost GDP each week it is in operation. In fact it is much worse than that because government spending is being massively increased (whatever it takes) and private sector tax generating income has largely stopped outside of supermarkets. The longer term economic consequences are frankly horrendous and we do not want to be in lock down for a day more than we need to be.
Why are we in lockdown? It is not to stop the spread of the virus, that is ultimately futile. It is to protect the NHS. This has been achieved. We have seen none of the overwhelming of health services that we have seen in other countries. Indeed you could make the case for much of the country that we locked down too soon. Ninewells hospital in Dundee, the biggest in Tayside, currently has 7 people on ventilators. 7. The resources available are actually not being used to full advantage.
Why is our death rate marginally above average? I would tentatively suggest several reasons. In London we have the most densely populated area in Europe and England generally is some of the most densely populated landmass. This virus loves dense populations, see New York, Madrid, Belgium. We have a large BAME population who seem particularly vulnerable. We have a major obesity problem that does not help. There is no good evidence that we are doing worse than anyone else once these factors are taken into account.
So protect the NHS, tick, don't lock down too soon (tick for London), protect the economy as much as possible in this nightmare, tick. Not everything is right, there are frustrations with PPE and the bravery of NHS staff is remarkable but we are doing alright, possibly slightly better than that.
What he said.
There are multiple factors involved - and some early "successes" are now having "second waves":
Although, as in much of Asia, casual racism is not far below the surface with the implication that its not such a big problem as they are foreign work permit holders who live in cramped communal dorms. Who could have seen that coming?
Once this is all over I do think PHE will have "questions to answer" (and Ministers for not asking them) - "command and control centralised testing" and PPE distribution among them. Also I suspect Care Home lock down should have started sooner - that was a disaster waiting to happen. Finally I remain mystified over this fetishisation of unrestricted international travel - we're among the last to allow it. If it is to carry on, then at least force all arrivals to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
I agree with the air travel. I hear the argument that it makes little difference given the level of transmission here. I just don't agree. Merkel's explanation of the sensitivity of R0 the other day was hard to improve upon. Every little helps. The days of popping on and off planes like buses are, sadly, gone and we should get with the program.
"As yet, the public haven’t noticed, probably because the information isn’t being widely publicised."
Can I suggest that the average person probably has plenty of hard-won experience in the real world, and knows perfection is impossible.
Try your best, work hard, correct mistakes, be flexible. That's good enough.
The government's initial half-arsed approach and delay in implementing a lockdown has cost thousands of lives. That is certainly not good enough.
Has it?
The UK seems similar to France and Italy and Spain to me.
To have got a Norway or South Korea type number we'd have had to take very different decisions right from the start that we weren't prepared to do.
Similar to Italy. France includes care home deaths in its statistics. On a like for like basis it's doing better on deaths than the UK.
However France is doing as badly as the UK on testing, which is the key to getting out of full lockdown.
Do you have a link to where it says the UK isn't including care home deaths of Covid-19 in its stats?
I read an article yesterday that said we might be overegging Covid-19 deaths because doctors are being encouraged to put carehome deaths down to it if they're not sure.
See Changes note here. These charts now exclude care home deaths from French numbers
As Conway points out there are other issues comparing numbers, so your over-egg comment could be valid (could also be under-egging)
The worrying thing is not The Peak, it is The Plateau
The plateau was the explicit proximate policy target ("flatten the curve, save the nhs").
Exactly so. The NHS is on a war footing. Not having enough cases to treat is not a success, it means the price paid by those whose treatment for other things was deferred was wasted.
I agree with those that say we are now on a plateau. Even after several weeks of severe lockdown Spain had over 5,800 new cases yesterday. We need to urgently learn how and what we can do to reduce the R0 figure by enough to come out of lockdown when we still have an economy left.
Japan’s health service is on the brink of collapse today, yet according to this thread header we are doing badly. Get real
What, no.
It’s one of headlines on BBC news
See my point up-thread about Britain's most loved institutions being its shittiest. Do you have a link though? I don't see it on the top page (your geolocation may vary.)
Comments
Setka Cup Womens Table Tennis. 09:40 - Oksana Mykhailyk v Oksana Kregul
OM is 1/5. has won both her matches today 3-0. OK has lost her three matches 1-3. Last time they played OM won 3-0. I've gone for OM -1.5 games at 1/2 (bet365).
DYOR.
Meanwhile Starmer continues to be a member of the donkey class.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1251227619485417472
Ed Conway notes the same but keeps care home numbers in for France, Belgium and Switzerland
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1251207966876930048
As Conway points out there are other issues comparing numbers, so your over-egg comment could be valid (could also be under-egging)
Actually, for me it’s not too bad, there’s still some (self-employed) work ticking along and wife is working from home in a secure job. No kids. We have 1,000sq ft apartment in a modern block with a balcony for fresh air and it’s not too hot yet, around 35°C during the day. The Netflix queue is gradually getting shorter!
Oh, and Ramadan starts next week too, where thousands of people are going to ignore rules to visit their neighbours and friends to break their daily fast. Chances are they’re going to have to maintain the lockdown for another month, to stop the Iftar parties getting out of hand.
https://twitter.com/amyhoy/status/1251304557260402688?s=21
Yeh, but, no, but, yeh, but...
But it wont get truly slaughtered until the inquiries on the situation since no matter how well it does now we will it seems be one of the worst hit, and it wont matter if certain things were unavoidable.
My guess is that a lot of people will realise just how much money they were wasting on takeaways, rather than cooking for themselves.
On home working, yes, very much so. My office has taken to it like ducks to water. Nobody misses the commute, management doesn't find decisions are being taken less effectively, all the hassle about parking spaces etc. has gone. If people could go out more in their free time, it'd be OK to do it forever, which an occasional get-together just as a nice bonding thing. But 20% of the organisation's staff work around the world anyway, often in small or even one-person teams, and there are plenty who I've mever met.
1) Why has the government been so lax about entry to this country.
2) Why has the government allowed this country to be so dependent upon imports for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.
Do you think Starmer will notice these open goals ?
Ultimately while Corbyn and his supporters did face a lot of opposition within without the party, their main complaint comes to do being their own inadequacy to deal with the challenges they faced. (Also being author their own challenges in many cases but thats another story).
Whether we dislike Boris for instance, and acknowledging he had lesser challenges, he did cause problems too but was able to overcome them. I'm sure Keir will too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/technology/bill-gates-virus-conspiracy-theories.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
There's a chance even a vaccine wont save America, as so many people will refuse to take it.
It turns out they’re here to train the largest team of British farm workers in a generation.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8230457/Farm-boss-spent-40k-flying-150-Romanian-fruit-pickers-UK-teach-Brit-land-army-done.html
I hope the imams - and the MPs - in their communities are laying down that just this once, it cannot be a social occasion. Because for whatever reason, this virus is hunting down those in the Muslim community more ferociously than any other. The worst possible outcome is that they get painted as the villains, whilst being disproportionately the victims.
Nevertheless CV19 is a contagious bastard. It seems to be difficult to go much below R=1 even with stringent measures in place.
I don't agree with your "snitching" point. If the vast majority of us are complying with the lockdown for the sake of the country we are going to get very piss*d off indeed with the arrogant and selfish idiots that think they can flout the rules.
Once employees and employers alike cotton on to the fact that home working can be done successfully then the immense waste of time, money and needless stress inherent in commuting to the office can be largely dispensed with. Office workers could find themselves home working the whole time, or only travelling to the office occasionally for important meetings, and if people only need to travel into the cities for particular necessary reasons then that ought also to mean the end of morning and evening peak/rush hour travel. It's a potentially transformational change that could save employees huge sums of money in commuting costs, mean that employers can either reduce or eliminate their need to maintain expensive office space, and save the Government itself money by doing away with much of the requirement to expand transport capacity.
Indeed, I interpret the decision to plough on with HS2 as being the product of the Government wanting to offer support to the construction sector, and to be seen to be helping its friends in the North, rather than for any conceivable use that the extra line will actually have in a post-virus world where demand for passenger train travel will probably have fallen over a cliff edge.
Major reductions in commuting could also help the Government greatly in its quest to rebalance the economy away from London. Once there is no need, or at any rate a greatly reduced need, for sectors like finance to bring all their employees together in one physical location then the importance of the City as a place declines massively, and economic activity moves out into the provinces where most of the workers live. Initially this could see a doughnut pattern of hollowing out as much of London's economic activity flows out into the Home Counties, but in the longer term there is no reason at all why ex-commuters can't migrate further out of, say, hideously overpriced Buckinghamshire into Powys or Northumberland, and enjoy a more rural life (and much cheaper property prices) without having to compromise their careers or earning potential.
If anything good comes out of this disaster, then it will most likely come in the form of the benefits that we stand to enjoy - financially, emotionally and environmentally - from more flexible working practices and a huge reduction in wasteful and unnecessary commuting.
Quibbling over days before lockdown won't be here nor there. As far as international comparisons go we can see idiots like those across the pond calling this a "hoax". Our officials and government took this seriously and took serious action.
If it doesn't deliver then I think Hancock falls, definitely, Boris will be fine though.
Polina Nerush v Marta Maliuta.
Skybet still 13/8 PN. she's won last 4 meetings and 6 of last 7. most firms moved to PN fav now but sky not yet.
Anyone can be expected to vociferously fight for what is in their own self-interest or those of their family.
1. The government aren't doing that badly at a macro level. People are largely doing as they're told, the NHS hasn't collapsed, there's been a concerted Blitz spirit push. Scenes of horror early on from the likes of Italy not seen here
2. The government have shown remarkable flexibility of thinking. Some of the stuff that Sunak has had to announce is outrageously radical for a Tory government
3. The disconnect between what is announced and what is reality has become increasingly stark. Its ok to announce loans for business or expansion of Universal Credit,but when almost everyone applying can't get it, there is a massive problem. The scale of the problem has been bubbling away for a few weeks now, and as we start to see businesses collapse thanks to the non-availability of the Sunak loan and suicides as people literally run out of cash the negative reality won't be blustered away
4. The impact of a decade of cuts is here for all to see. Its fine to say "Bravo NHS" but on the front line its literally reliant on charitable donations of food and equipment. Doctors having to rely on visors made by a local school and being told to reuse single use gowns is Not Good Enough. Same with HMRC and DWP - simply not enough people
5. There is a growing divide in the populace between those terrified of the virus and those dismissive of it. "Is that it" is something I am already hearing / reading - if we go on well into May in the current lockdown state I expect increasing numbers to simply ignore the instructions. And thanks to the cuts there aren't enough police to enforce it.
It won’t be for everyone and every company, but one good thing to come from this crisis could well be a shift to more home working in future, with huge potential upsides in quality of life for millions of people.
HS2 still needs to go ahead though, like with the new Heathrow runway it should have been built decades ago as the current infrastructure is stressed close to breaking point.
I agree with those that say we are now on a plateau. Even after several weeks of severe lockdown Spain had over 5,800 new cases yesterday. We need to urgently learn how and what we can do to reduce the R0 figure by enough to come out of lockdown when we still have an economy left.
There are multiple factors involved - and some early "successes" are now having "second waves":
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/new-high-of-942-covid-19-infections-confirmed-majority-are-work-permit-holders-in-dorms
Although, as in much of Asia, casual racism is not far below the surface with the implication that its not such a big problem as they are foreign work permit holders who live in cramped communal dorms. Who could have seen that coming?
Once this is all over I do think PHE will have "questions to answer" (and Ministers for not asking them) - "command and control centralised testing" and PPE distribution among them. Also I suspect Care Home lock down should have started sooner - that was a disaster waiting to happen. Finally I remain mystified over this fetishisation of unrestricted international travel - we're among the last to allow it. If it is to carry on, then at least force all arrivals to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
The idea that the virus is the only thing that matters is absurd. The risk was the NHS being overwhelmed, that clearly hasn't happened. It may have happened had we not locked down but the lockdown hasn't failed or come too late.
The review I'm interested in afterwards is not whether we locked down too late (we didn't) but whether Sweden comes out OK with their alternative solution.
A few obsessives (overly on websites like this one) will focus on slicing differences between us and Germany or South Korea.
1) I suspect the horror has been hidden in care and nursing homes and the truth of that will emerge with time.
2) Necessity is the mother of invention - ideology goes out the window. It did in both World Wars as well.
3) I agree the announcement is one thing - the administration is another. There are gaps such as Directors of Limited Companies who seem to be excluded.
4) I don't agree - the NHS was largely protected in a way most of local Government wasn't. If we had stockpiled all the equipment, somebody would have said it's a waste of money - just like water cannon or snow ploughs.
5) I'm very much in the former category. My anecdotal observation is it is the young who don't care for the restrictions - I see groups of young men and women still hanging about and if there are 20 of you in a 3-bedroom house can you blame one or two for wanting to get out occasionally?
On the snitching point: I disagree. We have seen plenty of examples of spectacularly misjudged public hectoring of people lawfully going about their business, curtain twitchers enjoying spying on their neighbours and shopping them far too much (in some instances out of previous jealously or in pursuit of a petty personal vendetta) and such reports then being enthusiastically pounced on by the rozzers. In the meantime unscrupulous employers who are insisting their employees come into work whilst failing to maintain social distancing are a far bigger issue for the spread of the dynamic, but the police aren't interested. It takes place behind closed doors out of sight and the only social drama people are interested in is the public one.
We see now why collaboration takes place so easily in occupied countries accompanied with a police state. People simply get off on the sense of power they can lever and they have to both see the "crime" and then the enforcement to get that satisfaction. It's like a real life soap where everyone can play.
I think it stinks. And I think defensive arguments like "we can't set a precedent", "if one does it everyone will do it" and similar clichés are just excusing authoritative behaviour and am shocked more people don't think the same.
The interview we had with a pharma industry specialist on our local wbesite (https://www.facebook.com/swsurreylabour/, scrolldown to Adrian LaPorta) was pretty illuminating on vaccines (really don't hold your breath, normallu it takes at least 5 years) but quite positive on potential treatments with existing drugs. If the virus become both less widespread and normally easier to treat, I can see relaxation working, especially if combined with fast testing with an antibodies test to see if you've had it. We can then start worrying about the economic impact, which most poeople including most MPs are barely focused on.
The only way for the lockdown to work is for the overwhelming majority of people to want to do the right thing and for the Police if they get involved to be with the few idiots doing the wrong thing.
If everyone decides to ignore the lockdown the Police would be powerless to stop us from deciding that. If patience runs out and people decide to go back to normal then what can the Police do if they're getting ignored? They can't arrest everyone and socially distance them all in cells.
1. Take measures early, including lockdown. The government mucked this up with the consequence that there will be more death, longer lockdown and greater economic damage. We are where we are.
2. Use lockdown to buy time to put mitigation in place, including boosting treatment capabilities. The government has done OK on this
3. Institute a big programme of testing and tracing that allows the infected to be isolated from the healthy, so the healthy can go about its business. The government has barely got going on this.
4. Gradually ease off restrictions on a risk controlled basis. Still to come.
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/johnson-johnson-gilead-and-roche-are-the-worlds-antiviral-patent-leaders
We also interviewed the Oxford tech transfer team that will be responsible for disseminating the vaccine, if it does work:
"Notably, in only one of these six scenarios does Trump retain the presidency, and that scenario relies on every member of the House surviving the pandemic and individual members of Congress adhering strictly to their party line during what would be an extraordinary constitutional crisis.
So if Trump wants to remain president, there’s pretty much no way canceling the 2020 presidential election helps him do that, at least not constitutionally."
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/17/could-trump-use-the-virus-to-stay-in-power-192883
One scenario leads to Biden's Veep becoming POTUS.
My wife and younger twin are complaining about not seeing people, the older twin and myself can't see what the problem is - neither of us are that social at the best of times.
Mind you we have a house big enough to allow us to all work separately so we aren't getting on top of each other, which I'm hearing from other friends is a real problem.
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/exclusive-new-ip-policy-help-forge-partnerships-potential-uk-covid-19-vaccine
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-step-by-step-guide-for-employers